I have been thinking about the fundamentals lately and trying to understand what I need to be doing and why. Notice that I did not say "coin fundamentals".
I enjoy coins and have been collecting them since I was 12 but I can't justify just collecting them because I like them as if they are cheap bottle caps. Strong coins are not cheap and they eat up too much of the household budget to not perform longer term. Collecting coins IS a form of savings.
Many like to forget that for the last 3,000 plus years, coins are and have been primarily a means of unitizing precious metals. This aspect of coinage struck on silver gold or platinum has been exerting itself in the last year on a scale that we have not seen in our generation and we will see it again on and off over the next twenty years.
MACROECONOMICS:
Let me run some numbers by you guys.
1. The total trade deficits of all the nations in the world with negative trade numbers combined last year not counting the US was roughly 650 billion dollars. We ran a trade deficit of 750 billion dollars last year all by ourselves. Guys we are stacking up dollars in the hands of foreign governments faster than all the other trade deficit countries in the world combined.
2. If you check the cover letter on your Social Security statement telling you what you have been paying in and what your calculated benefits will be when you retire you may notice that the SS administration by their own calculation will be running a sustained deficit by 2017 and they will need to draw on the social security trust fund deposited with the federal government from then on. Problem is, that money has already been spent and does not exit. There is no "trust fund".
3. Our total national debt is about 9 trillion dollars and its taken over two hundred years for it to build up. The present value of the total transfer payments including social security, Medicare, medicade etc. owed the baby boomers and other retirees currently stands at between 50 and 62 trillion dollars according to the General Accounting Office. These people are a huge 78,000,000 + voting block and will show up at the poles to defend their transfer checks. The real term value of these transfer payments is open for debate but whats not open for debate is that its going to hit us hard and its going to happen in the next 10 years or so. The feds are going to be looking for funding and it does not matter which party is in charge at the time. According to David Walker the head of the US GAO we will see a doubling of personal and corporate income tax or pay out only 33 cents on the dollar of promised retirement benefits. David Walker says that "anyone who thinks we can grow our way out of this situation either does not understand economic history or isn't good at math." He also says the coming generations are likely to see a significant drop in their real net income.
4. We are going to see higher real taxation rates, higher federal borrowing, and expansion of the money supply to keep the real term value of the debts from crushing us. We are going to see a drop in real term disposable income to go along with it.
What does all this have to do with coins? Part of the answer is income tax, inflation and estate tax may create a whole new breed of "coin buyers". At the same time one of the drivers that has fueled the rare coin market for the last 100 years ....growing real disposable income of the average citizen is likely to drop off.
Lets look at some numbers so we can see why this might be the case:
Lets assume the feds do not have the courage to change (increase) current tax law. Lets assume that the real inflation rate (including the unpopular items like food and fuel) stays at 6.5 percent for the next 12 years. It has been 11 percent in the last 12 months.
Our example candidate named John is 55 years old with a current net worth of $1,000,000 and a income of $80,000 per year. If he dies in 2011 his daughter would receive her full inheritance. Twelve years from now when the baby boomer bill is coming due assuming John has done no better than keep up with inflation his estate will be worth $2,130,000 and his income will be $170,000 per year. John would like to give what he has to his daughter but lets look at what percentage of his income in his last few years of his working life will make it to his child. Although John is only making 80 grand in todays dollars bracket creep will drive him into the 33 percent tax bracket intended for "wealthy" people. If John makes any kind of small windfall he ends up with just 66 cents to show for it. Then he knows that the 66 cents is going to be subject to a 55 percent estate tax for everything over 2,000,000. That 66 cents is going to be 30 cents when his daughter gets it and that assumes he pays no state income or estate taxes at all. How many of you guys want to sign up for that program? This may give John a high level of motivation to find ways to give his daughter non dollar denominated gifts that are hard to track. He does not have this motivation now but he will then.
THIS IS THE PROBLEM GOING FORWARD .......... Tax burdens are not indexed to inflation and the politicians are going to be in no position to give any relief to the tax payers. This is going to be one of the driving factors that are going to put a fire under the metals long term. The other is inflation. We just can not continue to export our currency at the rate of .75 trillion dollars a year and have the currency holdup. We just can't tax enough to pay out the 50 trillion we owe and money creation almost has to be one of the tools the Feds are going to use to prop up consumption, reduce the real value of the debts and pay its bills.
The metals may be at a short term crest and may show some weakness in the next few years but longer term the wind is at their backs.
If you read various respected commentaries on the coin market over the last 50 years the the writer will frequently note that growing disposable income is one of the key aspects of coin appreciation. Real disposable income in the US is down about 7 percent from last year and its showing up in coin prices for many series. This problem may haunt us for a while.
MODERN COIN MARKETS
THE SET VS THE KEY DATE: As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is true in good times and may be true again.
I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation consideration issues increase collector demand or the Mints aggressive marketing efforts build the collector base the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. The coins metal value is the ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
Lets look at the series again.
SILVER EAGLES: This series has a new member....it is the first significant die variety the 2008w with the 2007 reverse (08/07w) This coin is a modern "VAM". I have been trying to figure out what this coin is going to do after its been out for a year. Is it going to be looked at as the long term key to the series with its 47,000 or less mintage or is it going to spike and tank? I think in order to have staying power the coin has got to be regarded as absolutely necessary to have a complete silver eagle mint state set. That is determined by many things. The PCGS registry, NGC registry, Red book, Grey sheet, and silver eagle coin holder albums. The collector needs to feel that without that coin the set in not complete. The more that is true the more the collector base compression shows up in the coins price. Another thing to think about is look for coins with similar characteristics. Maybe not required for a complete date and mint mark set but wanted anyway.
The 1955 double die cent is a very obvious die variety, has a massive collector base in the Lincoln cent series and is rare. Its listed almost everywhere and is famous. Looking at the population reports about 4,000 exist with the center of the grading bell line curve in the AU58-MS61 range. They have a current market price of roughly $1500 according to the Red book. The 1955 DD cent has better ratios than the 08/07w anyway you want to cut it. Therefore I would assume that the top end of the 08w/07 is well below $1500 long term in typical MS 69 grade.
Will the 08w/017 still bring more than the 2006w silver eagle 5 years from now? Good chance but don't forget the top on coins like this shows up in the first year and will back about 30% off its first year peak in years 2-4 as is typical. Yes I know that this time is different.......
The silver eagles are selling very well and the mint has got to be very pleased. The 2007w and 2008w sold very will in the midst of market weakness and thats a good sign for the 2006-w and its date and mint mark key date status. I think the cheap coins are holding up better in this time of surging material prices and thats certainly understandable. This series is massive and a bastion of consistency in a chaotic list of product offerings. All the better date silver eagles will have prices that look like common date CC Morgans in the next 20 years.
GOLD EAGLES AND THE ULTRA HIGH RELIEF SAINT Can you hear the giant sucking sound? Remember what the one oz Buffalo did to the modern 90% pure Gold eagle saints when they came out? Sales fell about 80 percent across the board for 5 months, not just in the $50 denomination but all of them took a big hit. I have little doubt that the Ultra High relief MS gold eagle if it does come will further reduce the already poor sales for the gold eagles. Fractional buffalo gold is also in the works. How many ways can one cut the total modern US gold demand? Well our friends at the mint are setting the 2008-2009 gold eagles up for very low sales. May be the best of all years to buy will be the next few years.
Frankly I don't think the mint is all that interested in messing with 90 percent pure gold anymore and the gold eagle saints could see the chopping block soon. If they do close out the gold eagles I think it will help them. Collectors I talk to are tired of open ended series obligations and working on a closed modern series thats still affordable is attractive. If you like the gold eagle saints and think you might want to collect them then pick up the 99w and any other coming "w" mint marked frational gold. The last few key dates that are coming out of the mint are likely to enjoy astonishingly low mintages relative to the total series populations.
The Proof Ultra High Relief Saint with its 25,000 max mintage is going to be a killer if they don't have any follow on production in succeeding years. If you can afford one buy it.
FIRST SPOUSE GOLD As many expected the first spouse gold has gone through the inaugural sales spike and mintages are falling hard. This is good for the series. Coins with $500+ common dates really NEED to see key dates fall WELL under 10,000 net survivors to have any hope of doing anything longer term. I suggest that those who would like the coins let each issue fall back to a few percent over melt in the year following issue and pick them up at that time. Only if the coin is very late in its sales cycle and well short of 10,000 coins should a mint purchase be made. The only exception to this that I can think of is if you are buying the coins in bulk, cherry picking the group for a coin or two and sending the good ones to the grading service for 70s and the dogs back to the mint. $620 is too much money for a 15-20,000 mintage coin struck on $450 worth of gold.
GOLD COMMEMS The $5 gold commems were the kings of modern rarity from 1995 to 2004. Some of the better dates have been heavily promoted and the market has been cornered by a few very strong hands and the prices look like it. The series has reached a high degree of maturity in a short period of time. Jackie and his friends have plenty of company these days and holding 5,000 or 6,000 mintage coins is not quite so exclusive as it used to be especially when one considers that few of the lower mintage $5 commems have seen kitco and/or the melting pot. It would not shock me to see capital visitor center and maybe even Jakie Robinson rarity in the first spouse program in the next few years. The opportunity for the $5 commems existed when they were despised and cheap in the late 1990s trading just over melt. Those days are gone. A lack of design based unity and high prices relative to their mintage will continue to a drag on price growth going forward.
SILVER COMMEMS These coins are low mintage and cheap. I know that not having unifying design elements hurts them but very few pay them any attention right now and thats one of the keys to finding value. The 15,000-20,000 mintage 1996 Olympics coins are SO MUCH RARER than the 1995w proof silver eagle and the MS 2006w and 08w/07 but the prices don't reflect it. I have tried to understand this collector base and pricing anomaly but the best that I can come up with is that good looks and some strong unifying design element is important if not critical to long term collector base growth and key date price growth. No one coin in the silver commem series is all that much stronger than the other semi keys and that damps the keys too. In the end I think the series is under valued but how long it will take to grow in stature is anyone guess.
BUFFALO GOLD We can expect fractionals going forward. We may also see changing designs over the next few years. .999 gold is what the mint wants to work with from now on. Moy from the US Mint also likes to point out that the .999 fine gold is one of the platforms over which they have complete design freedom. If the designs start changing on a regular basis in this series it might be a good time to start picking them up. If the changing reverse platinum eagles are closed this is an area I will be looking at as my next collecting interest. We need to get through the initial sales spike on these coins and confirm that the series is going to get all the best designs because of design freedom before any of us can see this series clearly enough to have an informed opinion on them.
PLATINUM There was a time when the next generation of collector could be counted on more or less to be a series date and mint mark collector. Design stability was the stated intent of the mint and that stability tied the series members together in such a way that key dates with the highest value were the coins with the lowest mintage/surviving pops every time. The old commems taught us that series without strongly unifying (design) elements are priced as stand alone issues and the rarest ones are not necessarily more valuable than the more common popular issues. The modern fifty state quarters combined the strengths of both stable series collecting and commemorative collecting. The stable obverse and changing reverse was the ticket because it combined a much higher level of product differentiation than just a date change with unifying influence of the common obverse.
The Mint has just gone wild with an endless variety of designs and expensive issues. The market is being taught to appreciate a high degree of design variety from pocket change all the way up to platinum eagles but some overpowering way of connecting the coins together in series is still needed now more than ever.
Despite all the hardship the changing reverse platinum eagles have seen I still believe that the changing reverse platinum eagles in the out years will be the THE MODERN SUPER SET. Heres why:
1) The changing reverse platinum eagles in MS and cameo proofs represent 27 out of the 30 rarest design based type coins issued since 1915.
2) The set is struck on the ultimate US coinage metal. It is the ONLY platinum set.
3) The platinum set is not subject to the cohesion problems seen in stand alone commems. They have clear obverse design consistency that enforces series unity and changing reverse designs like the fifty state quarters enjoy.
3) The coins have been too expensive for the public to pull large volumes from the mint in any given year. Note that 1915 $50 MS Pan Pac slugs were about $2200 in todays money and considered "too expensive" so only 1 out of every 200,000 citizen bought them. Now a $50 MS changing reverse platinum eagle is $1100 and only about 1 out of every 100,000 citizens purchase one. Notice the ratios are relatively stable. Expensive issues don't sell when they are infants.
4) The mint considers the changing reverse plats their premier offering over which they have complete design and concept freedom. Consistently above average designs have been the result.
5) As has been pointed out by the classic collectors that having low mintages and good looks is important but low survival rates is equally important. New issues have the tendency to be held in bulk by dealers and speculators directly after the close of sales. These large inventories are sold off over time to "permanent homes". Coins that have been in a thousand different lock boxes deposited there 5-10 years ago don't come rushing to market at one time regardless of price. This is not true of the coins issued in the last year or so. The price spikes seen in the platinum market in late 2007 and early 2008 has made bullion buyers like Kitco & Silvertown immediately profitable places to dump large volumes of coins with high material content. This is a serious problem for platinum eagles because the strongest buyers are consumers not investors looking to hold an "alternate currency". Its simple economics. Coins of any given population and current collector base can only support prices to a certain point. Drastic material shortages that drive bullion prices above the CURRENT collector demand curve means that the coins will be sold off in junk bags if they are lucky and the melting pot if they are not.
This is precisely what is happening now. I talk to moderns collectors and dealers all over the country on a regular basis. About the only coins that have been hit as hard as the First Spouse gold on a percentage of mintage basis is the large denomination platinum 2006 & 2007 proofs, and 2006w & 2007w issues. Especially the 2007 "w" and proof $50 and $100 coins. Many back date proof platinum eagles have been sold to the "wholesalers" by dealers and collectors I know but the flow has just not been as violent. About the only coins that are not seeing hardship are the 2004 and 2005 proofs, $10 coins in general and fractional 2006w plats. Quarters by and large only get dumped for melt if they are in a 4 coin set and don't get pulled from the package for some reason.
The bottom line is this; the changing reverse plats are the rarest design base type set in the last 100 years and every time the price of the material spikes more of them get wiped out and the sets get rarer. The old saying is true "coins prices don't get strong until they are in strong hands". When coins get into well financed hands that do not wish to sell or need to sell price spikes don't bring them to market. The junk bag does the same thing. When the coins are bought and thrown in a junk bag or melted for use in converters they will not come back to market in collectible form regardless of price. The whole process is cleaning up loosely held inventory. If platinum continues to drive material content values over the clearing numismatic market price based on the then current total populations the only sets that will survive will be in closely held collections.
6) The current situation makes collecting in set form much more important. There is so much we do not know. We don't know if a so called common back date proof plat could become rarer than the mighty 2004 proofs at some point. We don't know if incomes in the US are going to be strong enough to keep collector values higher than the environmental metals catalytic value. clearly at times it will not. Never forget that the ultimate floor under any coins value is the material itself. The rarer these coins become the further left they move into the almost pure vertical portion of the demand curve and the greater the set will become. 1933 Gold is not high dollar because the government didn't make any, its because few survived.
7) Seven is a symbol of completion in the Bible and I guess this is a good place to bring up my last point. Many have wondered for years if the plats would continue at elevated prices. Despite the doubt they have and frankly the set needed to because sets need a certain number of members to become viable. Many influential people including the writer of HR 5614 are sending signals these days that 2008 will be the last year for changing reverse platinum eagles. Just like the matte proof gold of 1908-1915 they are too expensive and just not selling in volume large enough to justify the cost and material risk. If this proves to be true they more than likely will sell 2008 proofs and 2008 W plats until the inventory is gone. This translates they could be for sale until 2010 if need be. Same for the anniversary sets.
IF the 2008 plats are the last issue and stay on sale until they sell out the Mint's inventory there is a good chance the 2004 will survive as the coin with the lowest proof Red Book mintage listing. I think the $10 plats will stay very close to the original mintage relationships and this may be true to a large extent for the quarters also. The 2007 proof half is SO common I just can't see how enough of them could get wiped out to complete with the 2004. 2003 and 2005 proof platinum halves have not been abused much from what I can tell. Frankly I don't see how the 1997 and 1998 coins could compete with 2004 because almost two out of every three coins would need to be destroyed to pull into the 2004's rarity class. 1999 and 2000 proof halves bring no premium and have more than likely seen hardship if they grade 69 because the market regards an 11,000 mintage platinum eagle as common. The 2001, 2002 and 2006 are considered "common dates" and sell for melt for anything less than perfect 70s. The 01, 02 and 06 halves with their 8,000 or less initial mintages are my best guess as to the most probable dark horse key dates that could challenge the 04 one day.
The Unc "w" changing reverse mint state plats will only have three members if the platinum eagles end with the 2008 run. The problem with this is as we have covered before its the total population of the set and the relative rarity of the key that puts the heat on the key date. If we have a three year run with mintages that look like 2577, 3800, and 3000 respectively less melting for 06, 07 and 08 respectively the ratios don't model well. Three keys with no compression of the eventual collector base. Thats the BAD news.
This is the good news. The coins will more than likely represent 11 out of the 12 rarest MS type coins issued since 1915. So far 7 out of the 8 issues are rarer than Jackie Robinson MS $5 gold commems by a wide margin. Being VERY low mintage creates its own demand because an outstanding mintage in the Red Book is its own form of advertising. The coins add to the rarity fame of the platinum eagle set.
Let me ask you guys how you would like to collect. Lets say you have all the cameo proof halves from 1997 to 2008. Would you think your set is complete without the 2007 reverse proof? How about the 1997 Reverse proof? I can only speek for myself but I would like to have the following type set:
The extent to which the collector base sees this as the full type set is the extent to which the 2006 "w" and company will be considered keys. I think we will see some collectors with limited budgets just jump on the 1997-2008 cameo proof fractionals and be grateful to own such a rare set and glad to call it quits too. Others with deeper pockets will want to hold the rarest of the rare and will be more than willing to go on with the broader type set even including an example of the matt finish bullion for a grand total of an 18 coin set. What I am saying is I think those who can afford the "w" coins will pick them up and those who can't will let them ride and both groups will be happy. The unc "w" plats will preform well but just not as searing hot as they would have been with a 10 plus year run of high higher mintage issues to drive them.
THE PRICE OF PLATINUM AND DIESEL ENGINES: John Dear's off road diesel equipment division came to see our technical team at American Boa last week. We make vibration resistant flexible components that connects the turbo exhaust to the cats. All 21 off road lines with diesel motors are going to require leak tight exhaust systems with converters containing platinum by January 1st 2011. I asked the exhaust engineer if he felt that they were going to be able to get away from platinum in the foreseeable future and the answer was no. We have already "thrifted" platinum as much as we can and we need the reaction rate of platinum and its stability in the presence of various components of diesel exhaust that reduce the catalytic efficiency of other lesser metals.
The day after they came by I was sent a listing of the time table for all off road diesel engines and the dates by which they have to reach tier 3 compliance (translates will need platinum converters) for engines with between less than 10 to more than 1200 HP. The drop dead dates were anywhere between 2011 and 2013. Then I was sent a partial listing of all the diesel engine manufactures and their lines that were going to comply and it read like pages out of a phone book. More importantly from what I understand China that has a 10% annual growth rate in diesel engines is looking at requiring typical European exhaust standards. China's air is very bad and its not surprising that they are looking seriously at requiring cats on motors over the next 5-10 years.
I would also like to point out that the United states has about 28 percent of all the worlds coal. We are to coal what the middle east is to oil. The reason that this has been so little help is the cost of gasification of coal is between $85 and $100 per barrel and up to this point it was so much cheaper just to pump the oil out of the ground at $30-50 a barrel or buy it and then process it into whatever fuel was needed that we have become dependent on oil. From what I understand the Air force has several large military installations with huge coal reserves under them and they have made some prototype runs and found that the coal makes first class aviation fuel. They are in the process of awarding a multi billion dollar contract to develop the resource. We have enough KNOWN coal reserves to cover our TOTAL energy needs for over 100 years and thats assuming we stop producing other forms of energy. The point is there is no shortage of Carbon based fuels. Its just that the cheap and easy material is getting rarer and harder to come by. The issue is not a lack of fuel. Its how much does it cost to extract and process into the forms we need and then after that HOW DO YOU CLEAN IT UP!
My point is this: I think the catalytic metals are likely to be in higher and higher demand over the next 3-5 years and its going to show up in material prices. Another point worth mentioning is when a resource is distributed around the world it is somewhat resistant to supply disruptions and attempts to manipulate the market price. Over 80 % of the worlds known platinum reserves come from the Bushveld complex in South Africa in an area about the size of a typical US county. Guys none of us have a crystal ball but if we do in fact see a surge in world platinum demand for diesels and production falters or is manipulated out of South Africa we could see some serious spikes because nobody else can cover the demand. The world is mining a little more Palladium than is needed right now but if I were a betting man I would say don't count on that trend continuing longer term.
Thanks guys! Thanks for your encouragement and contributions.
More great analysis, news, and speculation, Eric! The inside info on the catalytic converters is fascinating--and answers one of my questions, which is has a good replacement for Pt been found yet. If there is any kind of spike above today's Pt prices, it's just hard to see these Eagles continuing. The Mint has the only answer.
Now as far as your question about collecting, I consider the set exactly as you do: 1997 Cameo/1997 Reverse Proof Bullion 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Cameo/ 2007 Reverse Proof Ann. 2008 2006 "w" 2007 "w" 2008 "w"
You gotta have every date, and you gotta have the 2007 RP. As a collector, however, I would see the "w"s as optional, but for myself, I've gone ahead and gotten them and plan to keep them. As I've stated before, though, I do hope at least the "w"s disappear after this year, because I don't know how long I could keep stretching to get them and the proofs.
Eric, every year after I am done buying my Plats - I feel like a whipped dog that's just been ran over by a locomotive.
Then I read some of your commentary and come right back to the conclusion I've made before - it really doesn't matter how difficult the purchasing of Plats gets, because these coins are really a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity on every level.
In due time, they will ALL be rare, and highly-sought. That's all I need to know. Interesting stuff about the diesel business. I always love knowing how the engineers feel about some things.
I have yet to find another platinum collector out in the real world.....
When I ask dealers about platinum coins they look at me like I was speaking a foreign language.....
Raven, I know what you mean. That's how my buddies at Scotsman in St. Louis acted when I made a special trip to see them. And THEY are (supposedly) primary Mint distributors for APE's.
When I went to the St. Louis Show in February, there was ONE dealer in the whole show who was displaying any Plats, and even he wasn't hanging around to show them to me.
To quote a well-known politician, "they have antipathy towards anyone who is not like them." Actually, I find it somewhat amusing these days. My portfolio of platinum is doing just fine.
If we could only get my buddy Edmond (at the Mint) to back off a bit.
You gotta have every date, and you gotta have the 2007 RP. As a collector, however, I would see the "w"s as optional, but for myself, I've gone ahead and gotten them and plan to keep them. As I've stated before, though, I do hope at least the "w"s disappear after this year, because I don't know how long I could keep stretching to get them and the proofs.
GritsMan, Eric - and you gotta have the Regular Issues. You just do!!! Don't kid yourselves! (It's a jungle out there.)
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"J" - This is my feeling as well as the first two "W" unc. years I got the 4 coin set and felt, as you say, runover...I do think we ought to stretch just a bit, and I think I will continue on with just the halves.
BTW, what is a 1997 Reverse proof bullion? Are you saying the unc. is this as the coins came rev. proof in format and actually are struck as proof, though not called that?
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
BTW, what is a 1997 Reverse proof bullion? Are you saying the unc. is this as the coins came rev. proof in format and actually are struck as proof, though not called that?
I think that he's referring to the Regular Issues, from 1997 to 2003 which had some proof devices with Matte fields. I like the look of those coins much better than the current Uncs, the Reverse Proof or the Burnished Uncs. They just look more attractive overall.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I think it might be better to just leave the USA for another country that is not going to take 75% of what I make.
I can do what I do with a computer from anywhere in the world, so why be stupid and allow it?
Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia are sounding better and better. I am serious.
I am not going to drink the Kool-Aide these politicians are serving. >>
Coinboy, I love my country very much. But I couldn't agree with you more. I fear (no, I'm fairly certain) that Obama is going to win, and we will see tax levels that defy logic (go ahead and flame away...but deep down in everyone's heart, we all know Republican or Democrat, they all tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend). I make over $90k/yr, and still can't make it (my modest house's property tax in NJ is frickin' $10,000/year!!!). I'm flat tired of working my ass off, being taxed for it, and watching my frickin' hard-earned bucks go to a baby factory that doesn't want to do squat! It's not right, fair, nor Biblical for cryin' out loud.
My wife and I were ready to move to where property taxes were 1/4 of the above, but now with gas going through the roof, a 60-mile each way commute is too expensive. So, now what? The other country concept has gained a bit of merit in my opinion.
However, if I ever get to the point that I have an extra $2g's or so, I'll be sure to buy the darn plats!
Let's stick to plats, boys. There's plenty of other places for political rants--even on this forum!
<< <i>
<< <i>I think it might be better to just leave the USA for another country that is not going to take 75% of what I make.
I can do what I do with a computer from anywhere in the world, so why be stupid and allow it?
Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia are sounding better and better. I am serious.
I am not going to drink the Kool-Aide these politicians are serving. >>
Coinboy, I love my country very much. But I couldn't agree with you more. I fear (no, I'm fairly certain) that Obama is going to win, and we will see tax levels that defy logic (go ahead and flame away...but deep down in everyone's heart, we all know Republican or Democrat, they all tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend). I make over $90k/yr, and still can't make it (my modest house's property tax in NJ is frickin' $10,000/year!!!). I'm flat tired of working my ass off, being taxed for it, and watching my frickin' hard-earned bucks go to a baby factory that doesn't want to do squat! It's not right, fair, nor Biblical for cryin' out loud.
My wife and I were ready to move to where property taxes were 1/4 of the above, but now with gas going through the roof, a 60-mile each way commute is too expensive. So, now what? The other country concept has gained a bit of merit in my opinion.
However, if I ever get to the point that I have an extra $2g's or so, I'll be sure to buy the darn plats! >>
<< <i> Would you think your set is complete without the 2007 reverse proof? >>
I consider the reverse proof as part of my $50 proof collection and was surprised that it is not required in my registry set of such.
On May 27th, I sent the following e-mail to BJ Searls, the Set Registry Manager:
Hi BJ,
Will the half-ounce platinum reverse proofs ever become part of the composition for the half-ounce Platinum Eagles proof sets? As the 2006 silver reverse proofs are a required coin in the Silver Eagles proof sets, it seems inconsistent that the 2007 platinum reverse proofs are not required in the half-ounce Platinum Eagles proof sets.
Regards,
Don
Her reply was as follows:
Hi Don,
We are not sure at this point. We are going to run a poll on this issue in a week or two. Thanks.
BJ Searls Set Registry Manager 512.496.5018 512.420-8805 Fax
Since it has now been more than two weeks without a poll, perhaps some here can pester,.. err question her about this. It sure would help the reverse proofs if they were required in the registry sets like the silver ones are.
The extent to which the collector base sees this as the full type set is the extent to which the 2006 "w" and company will be considered keys. >>
Yep, that's the set that I am working on as well - all in the $50 half ounce denomination. As I am now having trouble financing both the Proofs and the W-unc's each year (which is part of why I hope they do end...), I have never even considered a run of the 4-coin sets.
I would make one small change to the list above, though. I think I would get the plain bullion issue from 2007 instead of 1997. This would give a 4-coin set for the year 2007, which I find to be more interesting that having the proof and unc from 1997. I want to do the same for my silver and gold anniversary sets as well.
Over time, I think the Proof series will see greater demand and interest than the 3-year w-unc series. I simply purchased them because they were available and "matched" my Proofs.
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
As usual Eric, very sound advice and a great read!
Design unity is the thing of modern collecting. The coins have to have some kind of distinctive shared common design element that makes them easily recognizable as a part of a set. Exhibit 1: Statehood Quarters. Exhibit 2: Chinese Pandas. Exhibit 3: British Britannias. The rest of the world is doing it and so are we. It is a new collecting trend and it is here to stay. In a sea of multiple open offerings by the US Mint it is easy for the new collector to get lost on what to collect if he or she can't distinguish a coin as a definite part of any given set. Without a distinctive shared design element, any coin is just another fish in the water. You have to have design unity...
<< <i>I think it might be better to just leave the USA for another country that is not going to take 75% of what I make.
I can do what I do with a computer from anywhere in the world, so why be stupid and allow it?
Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia are sounding better and better. I am serious.
I am not going to drink the Kool-Aide these politicians are serving. >>
Coinboy, I love my country very much. But I couldn't agree with you more. I fear (no, I'm fairly certain) that Obama is going to win, and we will see tax levels that defy logic (go ahead and flame away...but deep down in everyone's heart, we all know Republican or Democrat, they all tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend). I make over $90k/yr, and still can't make it (my modest house's property tax in NJ is frickin' $10,000/year!!!). I'm flat tired of working my ass off, being taxed for it, and watching my frickin' hard-earned bucks go to a baby factory that doesn't want to do squat! It's not right, fair, nor Biblical for cryin' out loud.
My wife and I were ready to move to where property taxes were 1/4 of the above, but now with gas going through the roof, a 60-mile each way commute is too expensive. So, now what? The other country concept has gained a bit of merit in my opinion.
However, if I ever get to the point that I have an extra $2g's or so, I'll be sure to buy the darn plats! >>
As much as I DESPISE Obama and the other Dem. Socialists, I have to agree with Grits. on this one!
I and many others let loose on Obama in response to other posts on a thread about the absurd "tax rebates". Predictably, the entire thread ended up getting axed. I just love this thread and think that it is WAY TOO VALUABLE to risk having it nixed due to political dueling. So, as incredibly tempting as it may be to rant against Obama and the other leftists who want to confiscate our money and give it away to those who didn't earn it to buy votes with never-ending govt. handouts and entitlements, I hope that, at least on this thread, we stick to coins. This is one of THE best threads that I've ever read! Let's keep it alive and free of politics! :-)
1/10 OZ - 1,407 1/4 OZ - 965 1/2 OZ - 894 1 OZ - 1,542
Numbers include 542 sets sold. >>
Wow. Very low. Is it JMSKI doing the week-by-week comparisons with last year's sales? I'd love to see that again, if it's not too much trouble. Even with the speculators jumping in near the end, my bet is this will be in the lowest three mintages for the series. In fact, get ready for some low numbers in a lot of Mint products--the unc-"w"s (gold and plat), Louisa Adams... The ones I'm curious about now are the two Liberty gold spouse issues this year. Anyone care to speculate if they'll be sell-outs? I don't think so, but I believe their sales will be over 10,000.
Is it JMSKI doing the week-by-week comparisons with last year's sales?
I think it is Neo, but it could be Coinboy or BuffaloHunter.
Either way, here is something to consider. The economy is getting squeezed and there are **still** three different Plat Series to consider - each of them costing over FOUR $Grand to obtain a single coin of each denomination.
While a month-to-month comparative analysis will show the *dramatically shrinking* mintages, it's easy to see even without such a comparison.
It's also a good idea to pay close attention to the projected cutoff dates. Looking at past years is useful however, you must note that the platinum market is under many different pressures and the Mint is subject to more considerations than in years past.
At some point (and it could be "as we speak"), the Mint might start to have trouble with procurement of platinum on the open market, or they might be hesitant to stockpile it due to the price. Any hiccup in the platinum supply chain could affect whether or not the Mint proceeds with additional "runs" of any given coin denomination. This is especially true when the sales volume drops off, because the Mint has to consider production setup costs and scheduling a run for the sake of smaller and smaller quantities. Keep in mind that they are probably still sitting on 20,000+ half ozers (10,000 of each coin) from the Anniversary Set production that still have not been sold.
In other words, I don't think that it's too early in the year to start anticipating when the last production runs will be, and that even includes the Burnished Coins which haven't even been released yet.
Just thinking ahead.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Is it JMSKI doing the week-by-week comparisons with last year's sales?
I think it is Neo, but it could be Coinboy or BuffaloHunter.
Either way, here is something to consider. The economy is getting squeezed and there are **still** three different Plat Series to consider - each of them costing over FOUR $Grand to obtain a single coin of each denomination.
While a month-to-month comparative analysis will show the *dramatically shrinking* mintages, it's easy to see even without such a comparison.
It's also a good idea to pay close attention to the projected cutoff dates. Looking at past years is useful however, you must note that the platinum market is under many different pressures and the Mint is subject to more considerations than in years past.
At some point (and it could be "as we speak"), the Mint might start to have trouble with procurement of platinum on the open market, or they might be hesitant to stockpile it due to the price. Any hiccup in the platinum supply chain could affect whether or not the Mint proceeds with additional "runs" of any given coin denomination. This is especially true when the sales volume drops off, because the Mint has to consider production setup costs and scheduling a run for the sake of smaller and smaller quantities. Keep in mind that they are probably still sitting on 20,000+ half ozers (10,000 of each coin) from the Anniversary Set production that still have not been sold.
In other words, I don't think that it's too early in the year to start anticipating when the last production runs will be, and that even includes the Burnished Coins which haven't even been released yet.
Just thinking ahead.
>>
I was thinking along the same lines. I collect the plat quarters and the entire UNC sets. However, as you point out the mint could pull these at ANY time and there are a lot of variables which could lead them to do so. Imagine having a plat half with a mintage of 894! It would make the '04 look like common bullion. Perhaps it's time to dig ever deeper and pick up a plat proof half or two!!
Wow, thanks NEO! This is amazing data and I'm sure EVERYONE appreciates seeing it. And it's fascinating how 2006 and 2008 seem pretty similar at first, but then 2008 just grinds to a halt while 2006 just, as Eddie Kendricks said "Keep on truckin', Ba-baaaaay!" With the exception of a precipitous plunge in platinum prices (note the alliteration!), it's hard to imagine anything getting 2008 back on pace. Thanks again!
2006 could have been a better year had the mint not continued selling them past 52 weeks. 2006 were sold forever (which might be the story on 2008s if the mint pulls the program). Also, as Eric has mentioned before, the sales periods are directly affected by the seasons. Low numbers are not as significant on week 10 when week 10 is in the middle of April and you still have a whole year to go while moderate numbers can be significant when you are on week 10 in the middle of November (late start) and the mint website is already going red on some denominations. Overall 2008 numbers are very good. If they stay that way we might have something good (provided that the mint didn't strike a million of them and sell them until they run out). And that might be just the case if they pull the series this year...
Big question here in my mind is why have they stopped sales of the 4 coin proof sets? Are they signaling they are running short on coins and don't intend on minting more? Another question is why haven't they started sales of the "W" uncirculated coins which were due to start Jun 2nd?
<< <i>Big question here in my mind is why have they stopped sales of the 4 coin proof sets? Are they signaling they are running short on coins and don't intend on minting more? Another question is why haven't they started sales of the "W" uncirculated coins which were due to start Jun 2nd? >>
I'm curious about the 4-coin proof set, too. I'm waiting for them to go green again, so I can order a set. Platinum went below $2K for awhile, and they still make them available. It really makes one wonder if the mint wants to sell these.
The end of the Plat series could be near. If a shortage occurs then all those so-called common dates could become quite collectable too after the melts.
Does your data for the 2008 plat proofs include those coins sold as part of the 4 coin sets while they were available?
You are welcome! And to answer your question, yes the figures include the four coin sets sold. These are the sales numbers for the week of 6/16/2008:
1/10 OZ - 1,466 1/4 OZ - 1,013 1/2 OZ - 918 1 OZ - 1,569
Numbers include 523 sets sold (last week's numbers showed 542 four coin sets sold). I guess the mint adjusted the four coin set figures for returns this week.
<< <i>Those 2008 W AGE uncs have some pretty small numbers attached to them...still a long way to go.
Ren >>
I think that it is indeed a safe bet that there is a long way to go for the AGEs. The plats may be a different story. I've bought a .25 APE Proof and am saving funds for the UNC set. On the other hand, if they simply stop the plat. proofs, which they could do anytime for any of the reasons stated in previous posts, the '08's would be KING. Decisions, decisons...
<< <i>KEY question: Will they pull the '08 Plat Proofs early leaving a stunningly low mintage??? Who's buying based on this gamble?
Any word on when/if the '08 Plat. UNCs will be out? >>
I try to buy early based on this possibility, but more, to reduce the chances I'll receive a sub-par example that's been returned by someone else. Because of limited funds, however, I usually only pick up my particular series (1/2-oz proofs) right away.
Ditto on that nowadays. I think the bullion unc. plats have a shot at some scarcity this year also as they have about shut down production and most say August will mark the last of the '08s. I do not see a bunch around and wonder how many of the '08s were struck at the end of '07. These are really UNLOVED coins however....
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>the 08 plat uncs will be released next month. >>
The US Mint web. site product schedule used to list the UNC Plats. as June/July. Now I don't see them at all. Did they announce the July date on another forum? Thanks!
I try to buy early based on this possibility, but more, to reduce the chances I'll receive a sub-par example that's been returned by someone else.
Same here, GritsMan. Last year, the Burnished Uncs that I got from the Mint that weren't much good, so I'm still waiting for the right PCGS-graded 2007's to come along. I'm sure that some of them were returns.
I think the bullion unc. plats have a shot at some scarcity this year also as they have about shut down production and most say August will mark the last of the '08s. I do not see a bunch around and wonder how many of the '08s were struck at the end of '07. These are really UNLOVED coins however....
Jags, it's not so much that they are unloved as unaffordable. And besides the escalating costs, the economy is a culprit here as well. These are gonna be tough, regardless of the grade.
The US Mint web. site product schedule used to list the UNC Plats. as June/July.
Raufus, that schedule was listed on the Mint website as recently as a week ago. Status unknown, but my bet says that they've been produced.
To be quite honest, I've not seen such a low mintage year on all fronts in the Plats, ever. Then again, this trend has been in the works since the Plat Series began, give or take a year. The volume has been declining, and then declining again more each year.
I bet that a correlation of gasoline prices vs. total ounces of Plats sold per year would reveal a very strong inverse relationship. I think that 2008 will have some killer coins.
But, that's just one man's opinion.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think the bullion unc. plats have a shot at some scarcity this year also as they have about shut down production and most say August will mark the last of the '08s. I do not see a bunch around and wonder how many of the '08s were struck at the end of '07.
I would not be shocked if it were true but why has this statement about the 08 bullion plats being over in august been made? Please PM me if you know the answer but don't want to talk on the open forum.
I note a lot of PCGS 70 bullion $50 on the Bay right now. I find that interesting since these are collected by so few people. If anyone's looking for anything, a lot of the lower mintage dates (read recent) are available.
I note a lot of PCGS 70 bullion $50 on the Bay right now. I find that interesting since these are collected by so few people. If anyone's looking for anything, a lot of the lower mintage dates (read recent) are available.
A rather large beautiful set was retired a few weeks ago. The coins have been slowly sold on FeeBay. It's sad to see such a beautiful collection break apart but I guess we all have our reasons why we do things...
Comments
<< <i>I have yet to find another platinum collector out in the real world.....
When I ask dealers about platinum coins they look at me like I was speaking a foreign language..... >>
My experiance exactly. I love plats. but feel that I would be very, very lonely without this forum!
I enjoy coins and have been collecting them since I was 12 but I can't justify just collecting them because I like them as if they are cheap bottle caps. Strong coins are not cheap and they eat up too much of the household budget to not perform longer term. Collecting coins IS a form of savings.
Many like to forget that for the last 3,000 plus years, coins are and have been primarily a means of unitizing precious metals. This aspect of coinage struck on silver gold or platinum has been exerting itself in the last year on a scale that we have not seen in our generation and we will see it again on and off over the next twenty years.
MACROECONOMICS:
Let me run some numbers by you guys.
1. The total trade deficits of all the nations in the world with negative trade numbers combined last year not counting the US was roughly 650 billion dollars. We ran a trade deficit of 750 billion dollars last year all by ourselves. Guys we are stacking up dollars in the hands of foreign governments faster than all the other trade deficit countries in the world combined.
2. If you check the cover letter on your Social Security statement telling you what you have been paying in and what your calculated benefits will be when you retire you may notice that the SS administration by their own calculation will be running a sustained deficit by 2017 and they will need to draw on the social security trust fund deposited with the federal government from then on. Problem is, that money has already been spent and does not exit. There is no "trust fund".
3. Our total national debt is about 9 trillion dollars and its taken over two hundred years for it to build up. The present value of the total transfer payments including social security, Medicare, medicade etc. owed the baby boomers and other retirees currently stands at between 50 and 62 trillion dollars according to the General Accounting Office. These people are a huge 78,000,000 + voting block and will show up at the poles to defend their transfer checks. The real term value of these transfer payments is open for debate but whats not open for debate is that its going to hit us hard and its going to happen in the next 10 years or so. The feds are going to be looking for funding and it does not matter which party is in charge at the time. According to David Walker the head of the US GAO we will see a doubling of personal and corporate income tax or pay out only 33 cents on the dollar of promised retirement benefits. David Walker says that "anyone who thinks we can grow our way out of this situation either does not understand economic history or isn't good at math." He also says the coming generations are likely to see a significant drop in their real net income.
4. We are going to see higher real taxation rates, higher federal borrowing, and expansion of the money supply to keep the real term value of the debts from crushing us. We are going to see a drop in real term disposable income to go along with it.
What does all this have to do with coins? Part of the answer is income tax, inflation and estate tax may create a whole new breed of "coin buyers". At the same time one of the drivers that has fueled the rare coin market for the last 100 years ....growing real disposable income of the average citizen is likely to drop off.
Lets look at some numbers so we can see why this might be the case:
Lets assume the feds do not have the courage to change (increase) current tax law.
Lets assume that the real inflation rate (including the unpopular items like food and fuel) stays at 6.5 percent for the next 12 years. It has been 11 percent in the last 12 months.
Our example candidate named John is 55 years old with a current net worth of $1,000,000 and a income of $80,000 per year. If he dies in 2011 his daughter would receive her full inheritance. Twelve years from now when the baby boomer bill is coming due assuming John has done no better than keep up with inflation his estate will be worth $2,130,000 and his income will be $170,000 per year. John would like to give what he has to his daughter but lets look at what percentage of his income in his last few years of his working life will make it to his child. Although John is only making 80 grand in todays dollars bracket creep will drive him into the 33 percent tax bracket intended for "wealthy" people. If John makes any kind of small windfall he ends up with just 66 cents to show for it. Then he knows that the 66 cents is going to be subject to a 55 percent estate tax for everything over 2,000,000. That 66 cents is going to be 30 cents when his daughter gets it and that assumes he pays no state income or estate taxes at all. How many of you guys want to sign up for that program? This may give John a high level of motivation to find ways to give his daughter non dollar denominated gifts that are hard to track. He does not have this motivation now but he will then.
THIS IS THE PROBLEM GOING FORWARD .......... Tax burdens are not indexed to inflation and the politicians are going to be in no position to give any relief to the tax payers. This is going to be one of the driving factors that are going to put a fire under the metals long term. The other is inflation. We just can not continue to export our currency at the rate of .75 trillion dollars a year and have the currency holdup. We just can't tax enough to pay out the 50 trillion we owe and money creation almost has to be one of the tools the Feds are going to use to prop up consumption, reduce the real value of the debts and pay its bills.
The metals may be at a short term crest and may show some weakness in the next few years but longer term the wind is at their backs.
If you read various respected commentaries on the coin market over the last 50 years the the writer will frequently note that growing disposable income is one of the key aspects of coin appreciation. Real disposable income in the US is down about 7 percent from last year and its showing up in coin prices for many series. This problem may haunt us for a while.
MODERN COIN MARKETS
THE SET VS THE KEY DATE:
As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is true in good times and may be true again.
I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation consideration issues increase collector demand or the Mints aggressive marketing efforts build the collector base the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. The coins metal value is the ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
Lets look at the series again.
SILVER EAGLES:
This series has a new member....it is the first significant die variety the 2008w with the 2007 reverse (08/07w) This coin is a modern "VAM". I have been trying to figure out what this coin is going to do after its been out for a year. Is it going to be looked at as the long term key to the series with its 47,000 or less mintage or is it going to spike and tank? I think in order to have staying power the coin has got to be regarded as absolutely necessary to have a complete silver eagle mint state set. That is determined by many things. The PCGS registry, NGC registry, Red book, Grey sheet, and silver eagle coin holder albums. The collector needs to feel that without that coin the set in not complete. The more that is true the more the collector base compression shows up in the coins price. Another thing to think about is look for coins with similar characteristics. Maybe not required for a complete date and mint mark set but wanted anyway.
The 1955 double die cent is a very obvious die variety, has a massive collector base in the Lincoln cent series and is rare. Its listed almost everywhere and is famous. Looking at the population reports about 4,000 exist with the center of the grading bell line curve in the AU58-MS61 range. They have a current market price of roughly $1500 according to the Red book. The 1955 DD cent has better ratios than the 08/07w anyway you want to cut it. Therefore I would assume that the top end of the 08w/07 is well below $1500 long term in typical MS 69 grade.
Will the 08w/017 still bring more than the 2006w silver eagle 5 years from now? Good chance but don't forget the top on coins like this shows up in the first year and will back about 30% off its first year peak in years 2-4 as is typical. Yes I know that this time is different.......
The silver eagles are selling very well and the mint has got to be very pleased. The 2007w and 2008w sold very will in the midst of market weakness and thats a good sign for the 2006-w and its date and mint mark key date status. I think the cheap coins are holding up better in this time of surging material prices and thats certainly understandable. This series is massive and a bastion of consistency in a chaotic list of product offerings. All the better date silver eagles will have prices that look like common date CC Morgans in the next 20 years.
GOLD EAGLES AND THE ULTRA HIGH RELIEF SAINT
Can you hear the giant sucking sound? Remember what the one oz Buffalo did to the modern 90% pure Gold eagle saints when they came out? Sales fell about 80 percent across the board for 5 months, not just in the $50 denomination but all of them took a big hit. I have little doubt that the Ultra High relief MS gold eagle if it does come will further reduce the already poor sales for the gold eagles. Fractional buffalo gold is also in the works. How many ways can one cut the total modern US gold demand? Well our friends at the mint are setting the 2008-2009 gold eagles up for very low sales. May be the best of all years to buy will be the next few years.
Frankly I don't think the mint is all that interested in messing with 90 percent pure gold anymore and the gold eagle saints could see the chopping block soon. If they do close out the gold eagles I think it will help them. Collectors I talk to are tired of open ended series obligations and working on a closed modern series thats still affordable is attractive. If you like the gold eagle saints and think you might want to collect them then pick up the 99w and any other coming "w" mint marked frational gold. The last few key dates that are coming out of the mint are likely to enjoy astonishingly low mintages relative to the total series populations.
The Proof Ultra High Relief Saint with its 25,000 max mintage is going to be a killer if they don't have any follow on production in succeeding years. If you can afford one buy it.
FIRST SPOUSE GOLD
As many expected the first spouse gold has gone through the inaugural sales spike and mintages are falling hard. This is good for the series. Coins with $500+ common dates really NEED to see key dates fall WELL under 10,000 net survivors to have any hope of doing anything longer term. I suggest that those who would like the coins let each issue fall back to a few percent over melt in the year following issue and pick them up at that time. Only if the coin is very late in its sales cycle and well short of 10,000 coins should a mint purchase be made. The only exception to this that I can think of is if you are buying the coins in bulk, cherry picking the group for a coin or two and sending the good ones to the grading service for 70s and the dogs back to the mint. $620 is too much money for a 15-20,000 mintage coin struck on $450 worth of gold.
GOLD COMMEMS
The $5 gold commems were the kings of modern rarity from 1995 to 2004. Some of the better dates have been heavily promoted and the market has been cornered by a few very strong hands and the prices look like it. The series has reached a high degree of maturity in a short period of time. Jackie and his friends have plenty of company these days and holding 5,000 or 6,000 mintage coins is not quite so exclusive as it used to be especially when one considers that few of the lower mintage $5 commems have seen kitco and/or the melting pot. It would not shock me to see capital visitor center and maybe even Jakie Robinson rarity in the first spouse program in the next few years. The opportunity for the $5 commems existed when they were despised and cheap in the late 1990s trading just over melt. Those days are gone. A lack of design based unity and high prices relative to their mintage will continue to a drag on price growth going forward.
SILVER COMMEMS
These coins are low mintage and cheap. I know that not having unifying design elements hurts them but very few pay them any attention right now and thats one of the keys to finding value. The 15,000-20,000 mintage 1996 Olympics coins are SO MUCH RARER than the 1995w proof silver eagle and the MS 2006w and 08w/07 but the prices don't reflect it. I have tried to understand this collector base and pricing anomaly but the best that I can come up with is that good looks and some strong unifying design element is important if not critical to long term collector base growth and key date price growth. No one coin in the silver commem series is all that much stronger than the other semi keys and that damps the keys too. In the end I think the series is under valued but how long it will take to grow in stature is anyone guess.
BUFFALO GOLD
We can expect fractionals going forward. We may also see changing designs over the next few years. .999 gold is what the mint wants to work with from now on. Moy from the US Mint also likes to point out that the .999 fine gold is one of the platforms over which they have complete design freedom. If the designs start changing on a regular basis in this series it might be a good time to start picking them up. If the changing reverse platinum eagles are closed this is an area I will be looking at as my next collecting interest. We need to get through the initial sales spike on these coins and confirm that the series is going to get all the best designs because of design freedom before any of us can see this series clearly enough to have an informed opinion on them.
PLATINUM
There was a time when the next generation of collector could be counted on more or less to be a series date and mint mark collector. Design stability was the stated intent of the mint and that stability tied the series members together in such a way that key dates with the highest value were the coins with the lowest mintage/surviving pops every time. The old commems taught us that series without strongly unifying (design) elements are priced as stand alone issues and the rarest ones are not necessarily more valuable than the more common popular issues. The modern fifty state quarters combined the strengths of both stable series collecting and commemorative collecting. The stable obverse and changing reverse was the ticket because it combined a much higher level of product differentiation than just a date change with unifying influence of the common obverse.
The Mint has just gone wild with an endless variety of designs and expensive issues. The market is being taught to appreciate a high degree of design variety from pocket change all the way up to platinum eagles but some overpowering way of connecting the coins together in series is still needed now more than ever.
Despite all the hardship the changing reverse platinum eagles have seen I still believe that the changing reverse platinum eagles in the out years will be the THE MODERN SUPER SET. Heres why:
1) The changing reverse platinum eagles in MS and cameo proofs represent 27 out of the 30 rarest design based type coins issued since 1915.
2) The set is struck on the ultimate US coinage metal. It is the ONLY platinum set.
3) The platinum set is not subject to the cohesion problems seen in stand alone commems. They have clear obverse design consistency that enforces series unity and changing reverse designs like the fifty state quarters enjoy.
3) The coins have been too expensive for the public to pull large volumes from the mint in any given year. Note that 1915 $50 MS Pan Pac slugs were about $2200 in todays money and considered "too expensive" so only 1 out of every 200,000 citizen bought them. Now a $50 MS changing reverse platinum eagle is $1100 and only about 1 out of every 100,000 citizens purchase one. Notice the ratios are relatively stable. Expensive issues don't sell when they are infants.
4) The mint considers the changing reverse plats their premier offering over which they have complete design and concept freedom. Consistently above average designs have been the result.
5) As has been pointed out by the classic collectors that having low mintages and good looks is important but low survival rates is equally important. New issues have the tendency to be held in bulk by dealers and speculators directly after the close of sales. These large inventories are sold off over time to "permanent homes". Coins that have been in a thousand different lock boxes deposited there 5-10 years ago don't come rushing to market at one time regardless of price. This is not true of the coins issued in the last year or so. The price spikes seen in the platinum market in late 2007 and early 2008 has made bullion buyers like Kitco & Silvertown immediately profitable places to dump large volumes of coins with high material content. This is a serious problem for platinum eagles because the strongest buyers are consumers not investors looking to hold an "alternate currency". Its simple economics. Coins of any given population and current collector base can only support prices to a certain point. Drastic material shortages that drive bullion prices above the CURRENT collector demand curve means that the coins will be sold off in junk bags if they are lucky and the melting pot if they are not.
This is precisely what is happening now. I talk to moderns collectors and dealers all over the country on a regular basis. About the only coins that have been hit as hard as the First Spouse gold on a percentage of mintage basis is the large denomination platinum 2006 & 2007 proofs, and 2006w & 2007w issues. Especially the 2007 "w" and proof $50 and $100 coins. Many back date proof platinum eagles have been sold to the "wholesalers" by dealers and collectors I know but the flow has just not been as violent. About the only coins that are not seeing hardship are the 2004 and 2005 proofs, $10 coins in general and fractional 2006w plats. Quarters by and large only get dumped for melt if they are in a 4 coin set and don't get pulled from the package for some reason.
The bottom line is this; the changing reverse plats are the rarest design base type set in the last 100 years and every time the price of the material spikes more of them get wiped out and the sets get rarer. The old saying is true "coins prices don't get strong until they are in strong hands". When coins get into well financed hands that do not wish to sell or need to sell price spikes don't bring them to market. The junk bag does the same thing. When the coins are bought and thrown in a junk bag or melted for use in converters they will not come back to market in collectible form regardless of price. The whole process is cleaning up loosely held inventory. If platinum continues to drive material content values over the clearing numismatic market price based on the then current total populations the only sets that will survive will be in closely held collections.
6) The current situation makes collecting in set form much more important. There is so much we do not know. We don't know if a so called common back date proof plat could become rarer than the mighty 2004 proofs at some point. We don't know if incomes in the US are going to be strong enough to keep collector values higher than the environmental metals catalytic value. clearly at times it will not. Never forget that the ultimate floor under any coins value is the material itself. The rarer these coins become the further left they move into the almost pure vertical portion of the demand curve and the greater the set will become. 1933 Gold is not high dollar because the government didn't make any, its because few survived.
7) Seven is a symbol of completion in the Bible and I guess this is a good place to bring up my last point. Many have wondered for years if the plats would continue at elevated prices. Despite the doubt they have and frankly the set needed to because sets need a certain number of members to become viable. Many influential people including the writer of HR 5614 are sending signals these days that 2008 will be the last year for changing reverse platinum eagles. Just like the matte proof gold of 1908-1915 they are too expensive and just not selling in volume large enough to justify the cost and material risk. If this proves to be true they more than likely will sell 2008 proofs and 2008 W plats until the inventory is gone. This translates they could be for sale until 2010 if need be. Same for the anniversary sets.
IF the 2008 plats are the last issue and stay on sale until they sell out the Mint's inventory there is a good chance the 2004 will survive as the coin with the lowest proof Red Book mintage listing. I think the $10 plats will stay very close to the original mintage relationships and this may be true to a large extent for the quarters also. The 2007 proof half is SO common I just can't see how enough of them could get wiped out to complete with the 2004. 2003 and 2005 proof platinum halves have not been abused much from what I can tell. Frankly I don't see how the 1997 and 1998 coins could compete with 2004 because almost two out of every three coins would need to be destroyed to pull into the 2004's rarity class. 1999 and 2000 proof halves bring no premium and have more than likely seen hardship if they grade 69 because the market regards an 11,000 mintage platinum eagle as common. The 2001, 2002 and 2006 are considered "common dates" and sell for melt for anything less than perfect 70s. The 01, 02 and 06 halves with their 8,000 or less initial mintages are my best guess as to the most probable dark horse key dates that could challenge the 04 one day.
The Unc "w" changing reverse mint state plats will only have three members if the platinum eagles end with the 2008 run. The problem with this is as we have covered before its the total population of the set and the relative rarity of the key that puts the heat on the key date. If we have a three year run with mintages that look like 2577, 3800, and 3000 respectively less melting for 06, 07 and 08 respectively the ratios don't model well. Three keys with no compression of the eventual collector base. Thats the BAD news.
This is the good news. The coins will more than likely represent 11 out of the 12 rarest MS type coins issued since 1915. So far 7 out of the 8 issues are rarer than Jackie Robinson MS $5 gold commems by a wide margin. Being VERY low mintage creates its own demand because an outstanding mintage in the Red Book is its own form of advertising. The coins add to the rarity fame of the platinum eagle set.
Let me ask you guys how you would like to collect. Lets say you have all the cameo proof halves from 1997 to 2008. Would you think your set is complete without the 2007 reverse proof? How about the 1997 Reverse proof? I can only speek for myself but I would like to have the following type set:
1997 Cameo/1997 Reverse Proof Bullion
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 Cameo/ 2007 Reverse Proof Ann.
2008
2006 "w"
2007 "w"
2008 "w"
The extent to which the collector base sees this as the full type set is the extent to which the 2006 "w" and company will be considered keys.
I think we will see some collectors with limited budgets just jump on the 1997-2008 cameo proof fractionals and be grateful to own such a rare set and glad to call it quits too. Others with deeper pockets will want to hold the rarest of the rare and will be more than willing to go on with the broader type set even including an example of the matt finish bullion for a grand total of an 18 coin set. What I am saying is I think those who can afford the "w" coins will pick them up and those who can't will let them ride and both groups will be happy. The unc "w" plats will preform well but just not as searing hot as they would have been with a 10 plus year run of high higher mintage issues to drive them.
THE PRICE OF PLATINUM AND DIESEL ENGINES:
John Dear's off road diesel equipment division came to see our technical team at American Boa last week. We make vibration resistant flexible components that connects the turbo exhaust to the cats. All 21 off road lines with diesel motors are going to require leak tight exhaust systems with converters containing platinum by January 1st 2011. I asked the exhaust engineer if he felt that they were going to be able to get away from platinum in the foreseeable future and the answer was no. We have already "thrifted" platinum as much as we can and we need the reaction rate of platinum and its stability in the presence of various components of diesel exhaust that reduce the catalytic efficiency of other lesser metals.
The day after they came by I was sent a listing of the time table for all off road diesel engines and the dates by which they have to reach tier 3 compliance (translates will need platinum converters) for engines with between less than 10 to more than 1200 HP. The drop dead dates were anywhere between 2011 and 2013. Then I was sent a partial listing of all the diesel engine manufactures and their lines that were going to comply and it read like pages out of a phone book. More importantly from what I understand China that has a 10% annual growth rate in diesel engines is looking at requiring typical European exhaust standards. China's air is very bad and its not surprising that they are looking seriously at requiring cats on motors over the next 5-10 years.
I would also like to point out that the United states has about 28 percent of all the worlds coal. We are to coal what the middle east is to oil. The reason that this has been so little help is the cost of gasification of coal is between $85 and $100 per barrel and up to this point it was so much cheaper just to pump the oil out of the ground at $30-50 a barrel or buy it and then process it into whatever fuel was needed that we have become dependent on oil. From what I understand the Air force has several large military installations with huge coal reserves under them and they have made some prototype runs and found that the coal makes first class aviation fuel. They are in the process of awarding a multi billion dollar contract to develop the resource. We have enough KNOWN coal reserves to cover our TOTAL energy needs for over 100 years and thats assuming we stop producing other forms of energy. The point is there is no shortage of Carbon based fuels. Its just that the cheap and easy material is getting rarer and harder to come by. The issue is not a lack of fuel. Its how much does it cost to extract and process into the forms we need and then after that HOW DO YOU CLEAN IT UP!
My point is this: I think the catalytic metals are likely to be in higher and higher demand over the next 3-5 years and its going to show up in material prices. Another point worth mentioning is when a resource is distributed around the world it is somewhat resistant to supply disruptions and attempts to manipulate the market price. Over 80 % of the worlds known platinum reserves come from the Bushveld complex in South Africa in an area about the size of a typical US county. Guys none of us have a crystal ball but if we do in fact see a surge in world platinum demand for diesels and production falters or is manipulated out of South Africa we could see some serious spikes because nobody else can cover the demand. The world is mining a little more Palladium than is needed right now but if I were a betting man I would say don't count on that trend continuing longer term.
Thanks guys! Thanks for your encouragement and contributions.
Now as far as your question about collecting, I consider the set exactly as you do:
1997 Cameo/1997 Reverse Proof Bullion
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 Cameo/ 2007 Reverse Proof Ann.
2008
2006 "w"
2007 "w"
2008 "w"
You gotta have every date, and you gotta have the 2007 RP. As a collector, however, I would see the "w"s as optional, but for myself, I've gone ahead and gotten them and plan to keep them. As I've stated before, though, I do hope at least the "w"s disappear after this year, because I don't know how long I could keep stretching to get them and the proofs.
Thanks again, Eric! Great stuff!
<< <i>I have yet to find another platinum collector out in the real world.....
When I ask dealers about platinum coins they look at me like I was speaking a foreign language..... >>
Ditto for me. My local B&M dealers look at me with disdain when I even bring up platinum. "It's all just bullion!"
Well, that's okay. I like less competition while I'm still trying to complete my set.
Then I read some of your commentary and come right back to the conclusion I've made before - it really doesn't matter how difficult the purchasing of Plats gets, because these coins are really a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity on every level.
In due time, they will ALL be rare, and highly-sought. That's all I need to know. Interesting stuff about the diesel business. I always love knowing how the engineers feel about some things.
I have yet to find another platinum collector out in the real world.....
When I ask dealers about platinum coins they look at me like I was speaking a foreign language.....
Raven, I know what you mean. That's how my buddies at Scotsman in St. Louis acted when I made a special trip to see them. And THEY are (supposedly) primary Mint distributors for APE's.
When I went to the St. Louis Show in February, there was ONE dealer in the whole show who was displaying any Plats, and even he wasn't hanging around to show them to me.
To quote a well-known politician, "they have antipathy towards anyone who is not like them." Actually, I find it somewhat amusing these days. My portfolio of platinum is doing just fine.
If we could only get my buddy Edmond (at the Mint) to back off a bit.
You gotta have every date, and you gotta have the 2007 RP. As a collector, however, I would see the "w"s as optional, but for myself, I've gone ahead and gotten them and plan to keep them. As I've stated before, though, I do hope at least the "w"s disappear after this year, because I don't know how long I could keep stretching to get them and the proofs.
GritsMan, Eric - and you gotta have the Regular Issues. You just do!!! Don't kid yourselves! (It's a jungle out there.)
I knew it would happen.
BTW, what is a 1997 Reverse proof bullion? Are you saying the unc. is this as the coins came rev. proof in format and actually are struck as proof, though not called that?
Well, just Love coins, period.
I think that he's referring to the Regular Issues, from 1997 to 2003 which had some proof devices with Matte fields. I like the look of those coins much better than the current Uncs, the Reverse Proof or the Burnished Uncs. They just look more attractive overall.
I knew it would happen.
I can do what I do with a computer from anywhere in the world, so why be stupid and allow it?
Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia are sounding better and better. I am serious.
I am not going to drink the Kool-Aide these politicians are serving.
<< <i>I think it might be better to just leave the USA for another country that is not going to take 75% of what I make.
I can do what I do with a computer from anywhere in the world, so why be stupid and allow it?
Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia are sounding better and better. I am serious.
I am not going to drink the Kool-Aide these politicians are serving. >>
Coinboy, I love my country very much. But I couldn't agree with you more. I fear (no, I'm fairly certain) that Obama is going to win, and we will see tax levels that defy logic (go ahead and flame away...but deep down in everyone's heart, we all know Republican or Democrat, they all tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend). I make over $90k/yr, and still can't make it (my modest house's property tax in NJ is frickin' $10,000/year!!!). I'm flat tired of working my ass off, being taxed for it, and watching my frickin' hard-earned bucks go to a baby factory that doesn't want to do squat! It's not right, fair, nor Biblical for cryin' out loud.
My wife and I were ready to move to where property taxes were 1/4 of the above, but now with gas going through the roof, a 60-mile each way commute is too expensive. So, now what? The other country concept has gained a bit of merit in my opinion.
However, if I ever get to the point that I have an extra $2g's or so, I'll be sure to buy the darn plats!
Let's stick to plats, boys. There's plenty of other places for political rants--even on this forum!
<< <i>
<< <i>I think it might be better to just leave the USA for another country that is not going to take 75% of what I make.
I can do what I do with a computer from anywhere in the world, so why be stupid and allow it?
Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia are sounding better and better. I am serious.
I am not going to drink the Kool-Aide these politicians are serving. >>
Coinboy, I love my country very much. But I couldn't agree with you more. I fear (no, I'm fairly certain) that Obama is going to win, and we will see tax levels that defy logic (go ahead and flame away...but deep down in everyone's heart, we all know Republican or Democrat, they all tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend). I make over $90k/yr, and still can't make it (my modest house's property tax in NJ is frickin' $10,000/year!!!). I'm flat tired of working my ass off, being taxed for it, and watching my frickin' hard-earned bucks go to a baby factory that doesn't want to do squat! It's not right, fair, nor Biblical for cryin' out loud.
My wife and I were ready to move to where property taxes were 1/4 of the above, but now with gas going through the roof, a 60-mile each way commute is too expensive. So, now what? The other country concept has gained a bit of merit in my opinion.
However, if I ever get to the point that I have an extra $2g's or so, I'll be sure to buy the darn plats! >>
<< <i> Would you think your set is complete without the 2007 reverse proof? >>
I consider the reverse proof as part of my $50 proof collection and was surprised that it is not required in my registry set of such.
On May 27th, I sent the following e-mail to BJ Searls, the Set Registry Manager:
Hi BJ,
Will the half-ounce platinum reverse proofs ever
become part of the composition for the half-ounce
Platinum Eagles proof sets?
As the 2006 silver reverse proofs are a required coin
in the Silver Eagles proof sets, it seems inconsistent
that the 2007 platinum reverse proofs are not required
in the half-ounce Platinum Eagles proof sets.
Regards,
Don
Her reply was as follows:
Hi Don,
We are not sure at this point. We are going to run a poll on this issue
in a week or two. Thanks.
BJ Searls
Set Registry Manager
512.496.5018
512.420-8805 Fax
Since it has now been more than two weeks without a poll, perhaps some here can pester,.. err question her about this. It sure would help the reverse proofs if they were required in the registry sets like the silver ones are.
BJ's e-mail addy is:
BSearls@collectors.com
<< <i>Hehe...hey Grits...I did get a little plug in for the plats...
You're right, I admit it. But now you have to go buy one!
<< <i>I can only speek for myself but I would like to have the following type set:
1997 Cameo/1997 Reverse Proof Bullion
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 Cameo/ 2007 Reverse Proof Ann.
2008
2006 "w"
2007 "w"
2008 "w"
The extent to which the collector base sees this as the full type set is the extent to which the 2006 "w" and company will be considered keys. >>
Yep, that's the set that I am working on as well - all in the $50 half ounce denomination. As I am now having trouble financing both the Proofs and the W-unc's each year (which is part of why I hope they do end...), I have never even considered a run of the 4-coin sets.
I would make one small change to the list above, though. I think I would get the plain bullion issue from 2007 instead of 1997. This would give a 4-coin set for the year 2007, which I find to be more interesting that having the proof and unc from 1997. I want to do the same for my silver and gold anniversary sets as well.
Over time, I think the Proof series will see greater demand and interest than the 3-year w-unc series. I simply purchased them because they were available and "matched" my Proofs.
Eric
My 1/10 ounce set certainly is!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
My 1/10 ounce set certainly is!
And so is my 1/4 ounce set!!!
Design unity is the thing of modern collecting. The coins have to have some kind of distinctive shared common design element that makes them easily recognizable as a part of a set. Exhibit 1: Statehood Quarters. Exhibit 2: Chinese Pandas. Exhibit 3: British Britannias. The rest of the world is doing it and so are we. It is a new collecting trend and it is here to stay. In a sea of multiple open offerings by the US Mint it is easy for the new collector to get lost on what to collect if he or she can't distinguish a coin as a definite part of any given set. Without a distinctive shared design element, any coin is just another fish in the water. You have to have design unity...
Matte Finish Platinum Bullion - Sample 1 (2008)
Reverse Proof Finish Platinum Bullion - Sample 1 (2002)
Proof Finish Platinum - Sample 1 (1997)
Proof Finish Platinum - Sample 2 (1998)
Proof Finish Platinum - Sample 3 (2008)
Number Breakdown
<< <i>
<< <i>I think it might be better to just leave the USA for another country that is not going to take 75% of what I make.
I can do what I do with a computer from anywhere in the world, so why be stupid and allow it?
Belize, Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia are sounding better and better. I am serious.
I am not going to drink the Kool-Aide these politicians are serving. >>
Coinboy, I love my country very much. But I couldn't agree with you more. I fear (no, I'm fairly certain) that Obama is going to win, and we will see tax levels that defy logic (go ahead and flame away...but deep down in everyone's heart, we all know Republican or Democrat, they all tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend). I make over $90k/yr, and still can't make it (my modest house's property tax in NJ is frickin' $10,000/year!!!). I'm flat tired of working my ass off, being taxed for it, and watching my frickin' hard-earned bucks go to a baby factory that doesn't want to do squat! It's not right, fair, nor Biblical for cryin' out loud.
My wife and I were ready to move to where property taxes were 1/4 of the above, but now with gas going through the roof, a 60-mile each way commute is too expensive. So, now what? The other country concept has gained a bit of merit in my opinion.
However, if I ever get to the point that I have an extra $2g's or so, I'll be sure to buy the darn plats! >>
As much as I DESPISE Obama and the other Dem. Socialists, I have to agree with Grits. on this one!
I and many others let loose on Obama in response to other posts on a thread about the absurd "tax rebates". Predictably, the entire thread ended up getting axed. I just love this thread and think that it is WAY TOO VALUABLE to risk having it nixed due to political dueling. So, as incredibly tempting as it may be to rant against Obama and the other leftists who want to confiscate our money and give it away to those who didn't earn it to buy votes with never-ending govt. handouts and entitlements, I hope that, at least on this thread, we stick to coins. This is one of THE best threads that I've ever read! Let's keep it alive and free of politics! :-)
R
<< <i><< Would you think your set is complete without the 2007 reverse proof? >>
My 1/10 ounce set certainly is!
That is what I was thinking reading that post.....
Yeap! Camera angle and lighting. Depending on those factors either the nose, the eyebrows or the chin look very sharp...
1/10 OZ - 1,407
1/4 OZ - 965
1/2 OZ - 894
1 OZ - 1,542
Numbers include 542 sets sold.
<< <i>Numbers for the week (Proof Plat Sales):
1/10 OZ - 1,407
1/4 OZ - 965
1/2 OZ - 894
1 OZ - 1,542
Numbers include 542 sets sold. >>
Wow. Very low. Is it JMSKI doing the week-by-week comparisons with last year's sales? I'd love to see that again, if it's not too much trouble. Even with the speculators jumping in near the end, my bet is this will be in the lowest three mintages for the series. In fact, get ready for some low numbers in a lot of Mint products--the unc-"w"s (gold and plat), Louisa Adams... The ones I'm curious about now are the two Liberty gold spouse issues this year. Anyone care to speculate if they'll be sell-outs? I don't think so, but I believe their sales will be over 10,000.
I suspect the fractional Buffalos will be popular - if so, they may absorb some of the money that otherwise would have gone into other series.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I think it is Neo, but it could be Coinboy or BuffaloHunter.
Either way, here is something to consider. The economy is getting squeezed and there are **still** three different Plat Series to consider - each of them costing over FOUR $Grand to obtain a single coin of each denomination.
While a month-to-month comparative analysis will show the *dramatically shrinking* mintages, it's easy to see even without such a comparison.
It's also a good idea to pay close attention to the projected cutoff dates. Looking at past years is useful however, you must note that the platinum market is under many different pressures and the Mint is subject to more considerations than in years past.
At some point (and it could be "as we speak"), the Mint might start to have trouble with procurement of platinum on the open market, or they might be hesitant to stockpile it due to the price. Any hiccup in the platinum supply chain could affect whether or not the Mint proceeds with additional "runs" of any given coin denomination. This is especially true when the sales volume drops off, because the Mint has to consider production setup costs and scheduling a run for the sake of smaller and smaller quantities. Keep in mind that they are probably still sitting on 20,000+ half ozers (10,000 of each coin) from the Anniversary Set production that still have not been sold.
In other words, I don't think that it's too early in the year to start anticipating when the last production runs will be, and that even includes the Burnished Coins which haven't even been released yet.
Just thinking ahead.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Is it JMSKI doing the week-by-week comparisons with last year's sales?
I think it is Neo, but it could be Coinboy or BuffaloHunter.
Either way, here is something to consider. The economy is getting squeezed and there are **still** three different Plat Series to consider - each of them costing over FOUR $Grand to obtain a single coin of each denomination.
While a month-to-month comparative analysis will show the *dramatically shrinking* mintages, it's easy to see even without such a comparison.
It's also a good idea to pay close attention to the projected cutoff dates. Looking at past years is useful however, you must note that the platinum market is under many different pressures and the Mint is subject to more considerations than in years past.
At some point (and it could be "as we speak"), the Mint might start to have trouble with procurement of platinum on the open market, or they might be hesitant to stockpile it due to the price. Any hiccup in the platinum supply chain could affect whether or not the Mint proceeds with additional "runs" of any given coin denomination. This is especially true when the sales volume drops off, because the Mint has to consider production setup costs and scheduling a run for the sake of smaller and smaller quantities. Keep in mind that they are probably still sitting on 20,000+ half ozers (10,000 of each coin) from the Anniversary Set production that still have not been sold.
In other words, I don't think that it's too early in the year to start anticipating when the last production runs will be, and that even includes the Burnished Coins which haven't even been released yet.
Just thinking ahead.
I was thinking along the same lines. I collect the plat quarters and the entire UNC sets. However, as you point out the mint could pull these at ANY time and there are a lot of variables which could lead them to do so. Imagine having a plat half with a mintage of 894! It would make the '04 look like common bullion. Perhaps it's time to dig ever deeper and pick up a plat proof half or two!!
<< <i>Big question here in my mind is why have they stopped sales of the 4 coin proof sets? Are they signaling they are running short on coins and don't intend on minting more? Another question is why haven't they started sales of the "W" uncirculated coins which were due to start Jun 2nd? >>
I'm curious about the 4-coin proof set, too. I'm waiting for them to go green again, so I can order a set. Platinum went below $2K for awhile, and they still make them available. It really makes one wonder if the mint wants to sell these.
Platinum Futures Climb as South Africa Strike May Crimp Output
Thanks very much for the great data. It is most appreciated!
Does your data for the 2008 plat proofs include those coins sold as part of the 4 coin sets while they were available?
Thanks!
You are welcome! And to answer your question, yes the figures include the four coin sets sold. These are the sales numbers for the week of 6/16/2008:
1/10 OZ - 1,466
1/4 OZ - 1,013
1/2 OZ - 918
1 OZ - 1,569
Numbers include 523 sets sold (last week's numbers showed 542 four coin sets sold). I guess the mint adjusted the four coin set figures for returns this week.
Ren
<< <i>Those 2008 W AGE uncs have some pretty small numbers attached to them...still a long way to go.
Ren >>
I think, that is the case. With all Bullion coins & Proofs, this year!! This is the year, to buy guys
<< <i>Those 2008 W AGE uncs have some pretty small numbers attached to them...still a long way to go.
Ren >>
I think that it is indeed a safe bet that there is a long way to go for the AGEs. The plats may be a different story. I've bought a .25 APE Proof and am saving funds for the UNC set. On the other hand, if they simply stop the plat. proofs, which they could do anytime for any of the reasons stated in previous posts, the '08's would be KING. Decisions, decisons...
Any word on when/if the '08 Plat. UNCs will be out?
<< <i>KEY question: Will they pull the '08 Plat Proofs early leaving a stunningly low mintage??? Who's buying based on this gamble?
Any word on when/if the '08 Plat. UNCs will be out? >>
I try to buy early based on this possibility, but more, to reduce the chances I'll receive a sub-par example that's been returned by someone else. Because of limited funds, however, I usually only pick up my particular series (1/2-oz proofs) right away.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>the 08 plat uncs will be released next month. >>
The US Mint web. site product schedule used to list the UNC Plats. as June/July. Now I don't see them at all. Did they announce the July date on another forum? Thanks!
Same here, GritsMan. Last year, the Burnished Uncs that I got from the Mint that weren't much good, so I'm still waiting for the right PCGS-graded 2007's to come along. I'm sure that some of them were returns.
I think the bullion unc. plats have a shot at some scarcity this year also as they have about shut down production and most say August will mark the last of the '08s. I do not see a bunch around and wonder how many of the '08s were struck at the end of '07. These are really UNLOVED coins however....
Jags, it's not so much that they are unloved as unaffordable. And besides the escalating costs, the economy is a culprit here as well. These are gonna be tough, regardless of the grade.
The US Mint web. site product schedule used to list the UNC Plats. as June/July.
Raufus, that schedule was listed on the Mint website as recently as a week ago. Status unknown, but my bet says that they've been produced.
To be quite honest, I've not seen such a low mintage year on all fronts in the Plats, ever. Then again, this trend has been in the works since the Plat Series began, give or take a year. The volume has been declining, and then declining again more each year.
I bet that a correlation of gasoline prices vs. total ounces of Plats sold per year would reveal a very strong inverse relationship. I think that 2008 will have some killer coins.
But, that's just one man's opinion.
I knew it would happen.
I think the bullion unc. plats have a shot at some scarcity this year also as they have about shut down production and most say August will mark the last of the '08s. I do not see a bunch around and wonder how many of the '08s were struck at the end of '07.
I would not be shocked if it were true but why has this statement about the 08 bullion plats being over in august been made? Please PM me if you know the answer but don't want to talk on the open forum.
Ericj96
I note a lot of PCGS 70 bullion $50 on the Bay right now. I find that interesting since these are collected by so few people. If anyone's looking for anything, a lot of the lower mintage dates (read recent) are available.
I note a lot of PCGS 70 bullion $50 on the Bay right now. I find that interesting since these are collected by so few people. If anyone's looking for anything, a lot of the lower mintage dates (read recent) are available.
A rather large beautiful set was retired a few weeks ago. The coins have been slowly sold on FeeBay. It's sad to see such a beautiful collection break apart but I guess we all have our reasons why we do things...