I want to look in a RED BOOK in 20 years and see AU-55, MS-60, MS-63, MS-65, MS67, MS69 and MS-70.
I agree with Eric most of the time, but I don't think we'll ever see a day when there's a redbook grade for platinum coins at AU-55.
These aren't circulating commemoratives and you'd have to have some pretty deep pockets to use one for a pocket piece.
I fully understand the logic of rubbing a proof coin sold at melt to someone who isn't buying it for a collectible purpose but simply for bullion.
Doing so benefits the seller by ensuring its removal from the population, thereby incrementally raising the scarcity of his/her remaining holdings.
However, the thought of taking a nice MS69 or PF69 coin and planting a fingerprint on it, or shaking it in a jar of pocket change, is an act of sacrilege that makes me cringe a little.
An emotional response to a logical act designed to thin the herd.
I do agree with Coinhog- we don't have to destroy these coins to save them.
The act isn't taken to save them.
It is to ensure that the purchaser is not able to utilize the coin as anything other than bullion, and thereby potentially increase the value of the seller's remaining holdings.
Should I have refused to sell this gentleman coins under these circumstances? Should I reconsider the Proof Ike Dollar I recently cracked out of a Proof set to use as my pocket piece (on a slightly lesser budget than my $100 Proof Platinum customer)?
I've always wanted to have a 1998 $100 Proof APE as a pocket piece. I guess my train has left on this one, with Plat at $2,200 I doubt I'll have the guts now to do that! I want a 1998 Pocket Piece and I will have one at some point, that's for sure!
The idea of this thread since its creation was to document trends in modern coinage. Whether is good or bad to melt, scratch, ding and dent coins is not a topic for this thread and neither are the moral implications of it.
I agree. I'm not going to disparage anyone from defacing a coin they own... Mitch's example of even using a proof Ike as a pocket piece makes me feel a little queasy, but that's my own emotional response. Fact is, if you own it, you can do with it as you please.
In terms of tracking mintages, or in this case predicting surviving population, each time anyone does something like this, it makes the remaining coins slightly more scarce. Whether it's someone on this forum, or a faceless buyer at Kitco who cracks it out of a slab and sends it to a sparkplug manufacturer, it's already happening.
"Mitch's example of even using a proof Ike as a pocket piece makes me feel a little queasy"
Supplemented to add - the coin I selected had no chance to even grade PR69DC - it had problems to begin with. I, too, couldn't bring myself to use a top notch quality Ike as the pocket piece. And, why bother - with a little luck, the coin will get to Poor 1 grade in 10-20 years!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>I would rather seat here and listen to what people have to say and learn from it than pass judgment on everything that doesn't go well with me and watch people step back and stop talking in fear to be judged publicly. To those who have contributed to this thread and have come forth with valuable information, thank you! >>
I don't wish to cross the line from being critical to being judgmental, and I apologize for implied judgment creating offense. I think we all like these coins, and even mostly for the same reasons. Emotional involvement with these coins is probably what keeps everyone reading this thread. I do appreciate the logical responses to emotional posts here; it is indeed a great thread.
Edit to add: I actually like the idea of using an uncirculated fractional Buffalo, like a quarter ounce, as a pocket piece. I would think that .9999 Au would be a nice soft metal, it would wear nicely, and make a fun conversation piece. Yes, there may be this moral argument to consider, and I would argue that an expected high mintage and simulation of honest wear would excuse the decision to not preserve the coin in mint condition.
Using a more valuable coin for a pocket piece for one's own personal use (or to give away as a conversation piece)
..... is way different.......
than intentionally defacing a perfectly acceptable coin for the whole purpose of depriving any future added value use of it. Yes, anyone can do whatever they want with what coins they own... but this 'logic' seems rather vindictive and self serving to me.... JMHO.
<< <i>There seems to be an unstated assumption that the "great melt of 2008" is an anomaly, which will cease when the platinum bubble bursts and the price returns to "normal."
What if it doesn't? What if the price of platinum goes higher and stays there?
It's entirely possible that demand from emerging Asian economies will sustain high platinum prices, regardless of whether the short-term electricity problems in the South African mines persist. If platinum prices stay high, the coin melts could continue for the indefinite future.
About a year's worth of current platinum consumption is tied up in APEs. Melting them could ease the supply crunch for some time to come. By the time the melts taper off, the remaining APEs could be held mostly by bullion hoarders and hardcore, well-heeled collectors. At that point, estimating the number of survivors for each date and mintmark would be difficult if not impossible. >>
But if the prices keep escalating I would assume the mintages for the coming years would decrease. The question than becomes which is less, the mintage of a 2008 or 2009, or the surviving mintage of 2006 or 2007 (hell, maybe the 1998 now has the lowest surviving mintage, I guess we will never know).
About the only way at some point in the future to get a surviving population total would be a survey on a long scale, but even that is difficult because of the number of coins in invester hands.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
But if the prices keep escalating I would assume the mintages for the coming years would decrease. The question than becomes which is less, the mintage of a 2008 or 2009, or the surviving mintage of 2006 or 2007 (hell, maybe the 1998 now has the lowest surviving mintage, I guess we will never know).
We know that the mint at this point has very roughly 20,000 + oz of unsold 2007 platinum eagles. They have said that the three year "Foundation" set will be completed and it is rational with lots of platinum eagles with 2007 dates on them that they have $1300 to $1500/ oz in that they will have no problems covering 2008 platinum sales without taking on much new material cost risk. So I do think 08 is coming.
My question is if 08 sells poorly and the plats in 2009 will require prices that are just out of sight will they make an 09? It may be unlikely but what if the platinum eagle program were to end? What would happen in the short run? What would happen in the long run? How would the market repond?
Ericj96
I have a few thoughts but I want to hear what others think first.
An interesting question, Eric! I agree that making 2008s is no big deal in terms of the fluctuating price of platinum and left over stock from 2007. I do think that we will see sales of 2008 platinum eagles and further suspect that the numbers may be on the low side given the recent price run-up of the material.
If this trend continues without a pull-back, prices on the 2009+ plats will be VERY high. I wonder what is the minimum quantity that the mint would be able to produce and still be able to turn a profit on the overall program. I can't imagine that they can produce much less than they did with the 2006 w-unc program and still be profitable. I think this unknown point is the key.
Looking back at the price of platinum since 1992 (I can't find any data earlier than that) when plat was approx $370/oz, there has been a clear and upward trend in the price on a fairly continuous basis. The only exception is a dip in 2000-01 when it looks like platinum dropped from about $650/oz to close to $370/oz. Other than that, its been fairly continuously upward in trend. General financial history indicates, however, that when we see a hard spike such as the one we've seen over the past 5 months, that there will be a pull-back at some point.
If the price continues to escalate, I suspect there will be fewer and fewer collectors as the years pass until the mint pulls the plug.
Having said all of that, the mint seems firmly committed to its "Premier Product." Is this commitment strong enough to finish off the 2009-2014 Preamble Series? I'm not sure. I would like to be optimistic, but at some point it may no longer be profitable to create the dies and set up the presses for such low runs.
I suspect that we'll see the price of platinum pull back to the ~$1600-1800 range over the next 6 months and then continue its rise. The data charts the FBL posted earlier, however indicate that when the "slack" is gone from the jewelry market, we may see another hard spike in price. Will the Preamble Series be finished by then? I'm not sure on this one either.
One last item that I don't have any insights on: Historically, do shorter or longer series of coins receive more attention from collectors? I'm not sure which would be better for the series in terms of attracting collectors. I'm inclined to think that there may be greater future interest in a shorter run for the series as this translates into less of a financial investment in order to collect the series. Of course, this could be a moot point since the series already has 2 themed short-sets and one more is planned. Will people go after the entire run, or will they be satisfied with the 1998-2002 Vistas of Liberty or just the 2006-2008 Pillars of Democracy sets?
Looks like I've asked more questions than provided answers... Such is learning!
Eric
Edit to add:
Historical Platinum Prices Since 1960: link It looks like there has been a great deal of price volatility in the past, especially in the time period of 1969-1971 and 1980-1981. Given this data, I am more confident in a fall-back to somewhere near $1500 in the next 6-12 months, and then a continued but slower climb in price...
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
Having 20,000+ oz's of platinum coins dated 2007 seems like a odd thing to me..... We talking bullion, unc or proof coins here? I would figure this would go into the melting pot and it would take care of the 2008 coins and they will make good money on those coins with the prices where they are right now.....
If the 2008 proof coins went on sale tomorrow I still don't think the mintages are going to be much different then the past, even with all the time to sell them.....
As long as the mint can sell them and make some money they will.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
Why don't you think the number of coins sold in 2008 for changing reverse coins will not fall under 2004 numbers. You many be correct if you think the coins are already deep into the inelastic range of of the demand curve. I was under the impression that a cost structure like:
Why don't you think the number of coins sold in 2008 for changing reverse coins will not fall under 2004 numbers. You many be correct if you think the coins are already deap into the inelastic range of of the demand curve. I was under the impression that a cost structure like:
Frankly its hard to tell how rare the set is. In 1998 there were about 14000 4 coin sets that could be put together. Who knows how many are still around now. I think because 98 is not "considered" rare it is getting hit much harder than the 03,04,05 coins are.
It may be unlikely but what if the platinum eagle program were to end? What would happen in the short run? What would happen in the long run? How would the market repond?
If the platinum eagles series were to end with the 2008 issues, I think there would be at least a short term spike in popularity (and possibly prices for the keys), especially for the more affordable lower denominations.
Something along these lines happened when the Ike dollar was discontinued after 1978. In the short run, the series became more popular as a "closed set," and prices of the keys rose steadily through late 1980. At its peak the 1973-S silver proof Ike, with a mintage of about one million, was selling for more than $150 - over $400 at today's inflation-adjusted prices!
Long term, I think that the high bullion cost for the plats would moderate demand and keep prices of the keys from experiencing the outsized speculative excesses that accompanied the ending of the Ike dollar series. The plats' much smaller mintages and attractive changing reverse designs should also help maintain the series' popularity going forward.
If platinum prices don't go completely out of sight, I expect that a closed series (if one occurs) will increase long-term collector interest and make the platinum keys a good value going forward.
The price of the 2008 platinum W coins is a mute question to me. I saw this platinum price increase coming and took the precaution of buying insurance as I wanted to complete the 3 year series. The insurance was in the form of buying extra 2007 W $50 and $100 coins when they were still cheap. No matter what the Mint charges for the 2008s I will be able to sell the 2007s and cover the price.
<< <i>The price of the 2008 platinum W coins is a mute question to me. I saw this platinum price increase coming and took the precaution of buying insurance as I wanted to complete the 3 year series. The insurance was in the form of buying extra 2007 W $50 and $100 coins when they were still cheap. No matter what the Mint charges for the 2008s I will be able to sell the 2007s and cover the price. >>
This is a great way to acquire a lot of moderns and I use it often.
If you get something you don't want or of inferior quality then you can just trade it for very little cost.
Phew, it took me 4 days to read this entire dialogue I only wish I had taken notes because there was too much information. The amount of knowledge that was shared here is astounding. I will reread this again with notebook in hand I appreciate the time and effort taken to uncover the facts and the special ability to put the facts together in a coherent and "easily" understood fashion. I have been waffling on selling my plats but the price continues to the moon so I hesitate. I sold a proof 02 $50 last month and didn't even get melt on the bay. 3 days later the price jumped big again So much for timing the market lol. Thanks to all the contributors for their hard work but more importantly thier willingness to share the research and thought processes.
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
Why don't you think the number of coins sold in 2008 for changing reverse coins will not fall under 2004 numbers. You many be correct if you think the coins are already deep into the inelastic range of of the demand curve. I was under the impression that a cost structure like:
What I meant was that I don't that if the proof coins went on sale April 1st, the mintage would be in the same range we have seen for the last few years if not lower then they had been with the potential to be lower then 2004 if the price keeps increasing.....
With the limited number of platinum collectors which exist and the high cost for flippers I don't think a big push at the end of the sale time of these coins will happen.....
Raven
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
The problem with seating on the fence til the last minute is that it is a gamble that not always pays off as the mint has a tendency of cutting things short. In 2006, the W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverses came at the end of a long exhausting year. Through the year, the mint had offered 20th Anniversary sets in addition to other options. By the time the Ws arrived the public was exhausted and many chose to sit that one out to see how things went. Those who waited too late, placed their orders but received nothing. Basically, waiting til the last minute is a gamble collectors usually don't take. Speculators do. 2008 Platinum Proofs could go either way but for those seating on the fence I have some advice, don't hold your breath if you are the last one to order because you might not get it.
This happens every time and somebody always gets left out.
We don't know how 2008 is going to go; but, I would recommend buying early if interested at all. The mint might do an initial run using existing materials and sell it at high prices. Depending on how the precious metals do, the mint might hold off on a second run until precious metals go down again (if they go down again).
The mint is a government agency and as such I find it hard to believe they will buy a large amount of Platinum in the open market and risk precious metals dropping the next day. And, if that happened we'll be buying some expensive Eagles regardless of wherever the spot for Platinum sits at that time. In other words, if the mint buys at $1,800 spot and a few days later spot drops to $1,500 you will still be buying Platinum Eagles at over $1,800 spot. Let's remember that the mint has no direct competition; if you want an eagle, you have to buy it from the mint.
Went looking for back dated proof quarters in the 97-99 range last night on the bay.....didn't find much. Are people not using the bay right now to sell?
With the better B&Ms buying 2-3% back of spot selling on Ebay is a losing deal unless there is a significant premium over melt. B&M is also quicker with no returns.
<< <i>The problem with seating on the fence til the last minute is that it is a gamble that not always pays off as the mint has a tendency of cutting things short. In 2006, the W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverses came at the end of a long exhausting year. Through the year, the mint had offered 20th Anniversary sets in addition to other options. By the time the Ws arrived the public was exhausted and many chose to sit that one out to see how things went. Those who waited too late, placed their orders but received nothing. Basically, waiting til the last minute is a gamble collectors usually don't take. Speculators do. 2008 Platinum Proofs could go either way but for those seating on the fence I have some advice, don't hold your breath if you are the last one to order because you might not get it.
This happens every time and somebody always gets left out.
We don't know how 2008 is going to go; but, I would recommend buying early if interested at all. The mint might do an initial run using existing materials and sell it at high prices. Depending on how the precious metals do, the mint might hold off on a second run until precious metals go down again (if they go down again).
The mint is a government agency and as such I find it hard to believe they will buy a large amount of Platinum in the open market and risk precious metals dropping the next day. And, if that happened we'll be buying some expensive Eagles regardless of wherever the spot for Platinum sits at that time. In other words, if the mint buys at $1,800 spot and a few days later spot drops to $1,500 you will still be buying Platinum Eagles at over $1,800 spot. Let's remember that the mint has no direct competition; if you want an eagle, you have to buy it from the mint. >>
I agree with you, I missed out on the 2006 1/10 oz W Unc because I was waiting (that and I spend all my time studying for my PE test).....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
There are a number of comments I'd like to make about attrition by melting.
Here's an analogy - if you think of the extant population of all Plats as the ocean and rising prices as high tide that leaves some of them on the beach as it recedes, then each time the tide rises, it will leave some behind to get melted. From a probability standpoint, since there are more 1998s than there are 2004s, more 1998s will wash up onto the beach.
In this way, although the population of 1998s will ultimately approach the population of the 2004s, it will never quite equal the remaining population of 2004s, because of the market's built-in pricing mechanisms that account for availability vs. price.
On the other hand, think about the 1883 V-Nickels for a moment. Although there were 16,000,000 of them minted without "Cents" on the reverse and only 5,000,000 of them minted with "Cents" on the reverse, the "without Cents" variety is worth more than the "with Cents" variety, in every grade except Proof. Why is that? There were mitigating circumstances that affected the population of the "without Cents" variety. It was similar in design to the 5 dollar gold piece in circulation at the time, so it was frequently gold-plated in order to perpetrate fraud on the public, thereby significantly reducing the population of un-altered coins.
In the case of Plats, are there any circumstances which might mitigate the normal "thinning of the herd" which happens as prices rise and they are sold for melt? Just some food for thought.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The common dates with high mintages are most at risk of being scrapped. In theory this will reduce them to the point that the number of surviving examples may be close to level of the rarer years.
This reduced population may not be reflected in their market price as there will be a disproportionate number of top graded coins that will survive. Also while everyone may agree that population has been reduced the published yearly mintages will likely still be used as a proxy for relative rarity for each issue.
I suspect that recently dated plats are more likely to be melted than older dates, and one-ounce coins are more likely to be melted than fractionals.
Many of the early dates were likely put into IRA accounts or otherwise saved for bullion purposes, by people who are keeping them for long-run appreciation and are in no hurry to sell. On the other hand, it appears to me that many of the recently dated coins, especially the "changing reverse" ones sold by the Mint, were apparently sold to those hoping for short-term appreciation. The recent rise in the price of platinum has provided that short-term appreciation.
It would make sense to melt the one-ounce coins for at least three reasons. First, the high price of platinum has impaired their collectability - the numismatic premium has virtually disappeared for all $100 plats except for the 2004-W proof, while some of the scarcer fractionals continue to command a premium. Second, the mintage of the one-ounce coins is typically higher than for the half-ounce and quarter-ounce versions. Third, owning a one-ounce coin is much riskier, in terms of platinum price volatility, than owning a smaller fractional.
Sustained melting of low-mintage $100 one-ounce platinum coins could possible cause them to eventually be scarcer than the even-lower-mintage $50 and $25 versions. But if by that time platinum is around $5,000 an ounce, will it really matter?
I do not see how the mint is the only place to get plat eagles. They come to the aftermarket all the time. In fact, I used to wait until after suckers had bought them at the mint for 695, try to get the "70" and them would dump the "69s" for the 360 range (this was in the 2001-03 period).
I think keeping an open mind as to source is always a good idea - no telling where bargains may be had.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>I suspect that recently dated plats are more likely to be melted than older dates, and one-ounce coins are more likely to be melted than fractionals.
Many of the early dates were likely put into IRA accounts or otherwise saved for bullion purposes, by people who are keeping them for long-run appreciation and are in no hurry to sell. On the other hand, it appears to me that many of the recently dated coins, especially the "changing reverse" ones sold by the Mint, were apparently sold to those hoping for short-term appreciation. The recent rise in the price of platinum has provided that short-term appreciation.
It would make sense to melt the one-ounce coins for at least three reasons. First, the high price of platinum has impaired their collectability - the numismatic premium has virtually disappeared for all $100 plats except for the 2004-W proof, while some of the scarcer fractionals continue to command a premium. Second, the mintage of the one-ounce coins is typically higher than for the half-ounce and quarter-ounce versions. Third, owning a one-ounce coin is much riskier, in terms of platinum price volatility, than owning a smaller fractional.
Sustained melting of low-mintage $100 one-ounce platinum coins could possible cause them to eventually be scarcer than the even-lower-mintage $50 and $25 versions. But if by that time platinum is around $5,000 an ounce, will it really matter? >>
************* Well said,
If the 2007-w $100 mint state plats stop selling around 4500 coins and the price of platinum goes to $3000+ an oz over the next ten years I think they could get hit very hard. They are not a recognized key like the 2006-w but there are very few of them to start with. We could see some of the $100 coins with surviving pops that look like $50 Pan Pac slugs in 10 years. Its nothing to melt 3500 coins.
This whole deal reminds me of the 1932D and 1932s Washington quarters. The 32D had a low mintage but just not as low as the 32s. So everyone held onto 32s quarters and not the 32D. Nice 32D quarters are rare now and 32s not so much. Nothing is new under the sun. The larger the diameter the more likely that denominational set in the out years will be ruled by a dark horse.
If the 2007-w $100 mint state plats stop selling around 4500 coins and the price of platinum goes to $3000+ an oz over the next ten years I think they could get hit very hard. They are not a recognized key like the 2006-w but there are very few of them to start with. We could see some of the $100 coins with surviving pops that look like $50 Pan Pac slugs in 10 years. Its nothing to melt 3500 coins.
I'll add to that. Mint State Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with "W" mint mark $100s are at greater risk than their proof counter parts. After all, there is a collector base for PR69 $100s (unlike MS69 $100s - too new to have a fully developed collector base at that level yet).
Its interesting to note that roughly 80 percent of all the worlds platinum production comes from 3 very deep and productive mines in South Africa. South Africa nation wide is seeing a pronounced drop in ore grade of gold. How long will it take before the platinum mines are seeing the same decline in ore quality? I am not suggesting that I think platinum is going to go nuts right now as it may drop back as speculators loose interest but I am concerned. If the typical 6 percent decline sets in for these three SA mines as they age what does that mean for platinums price?
Look at what is going on with Gold ore quality ..................Chamber of Mines Article
In 2007, South Africa’s gold production fell by 7.4% to 254 685 kilograms. This annual decline of 7.4% compares with the 6.3% per annum average rate of decline recorded over the past decade. For gold mines, members of the Chamber of Mines production fell by 6.7% to 219 223 kilograms. The 37% increase in capital expenditure by Chamber members fed through to a 5.8% increase in the tons of material processed through the mills, but the 11.8% decrease in the average grade mined to 4.12 grams per ton resulted in overall production declining.
FOURTH QUARTER 2007 GOLD PRODUCTION On a year-on-year basis Chamber member production fell by 9% in the fourth quarter of 2007, as the 6.3% increase in tons processed through the mills was insufficient to compensate for the 10% decline in the average grade recovered.
I hope the price of platinum drops back to the 1300 range like some metals wizards are projecting so I can finish off some 97-99 back dates I need. If platinum falls off you guys may wish to do the same.
I have come to the conclusion that $3000 platinum will result in the destruction of much of the changing reverse platinum eagle back dates. One thing is a flat fact, "circulated" bullion dealers like Kitco are getting their fare share of these coins right now. At some point the populations will be small enough to overcome almost any material price. I think this point would be less than 1000 survivors in collectable grade.
No guarantees, but platinum coins could be an "endangered species" if high prices continue for the foreseeable future:
Possible long-term decline in platinum production, as suggested by Eric. Possible continuing shortages of electricity in South Africa. Possible steep decline in U.S. dollar, causing skyrocketing prices for ALL commodities, including platinum. Possible deep recession, causing existing collectors to sell off their expensive platinum coins, and discouraging formation of new collections. Rise of middle class in Asia, increased demand for platinum for automobile pollution control and energy (fuel cells etc.).
Ironically, many scarce platinum coins may wind up being saved by collectors transferring them from their collections to their bullion holdings. This would make sense as a diversification of precious metal holdings if the numismatic premiums disappear.
"Would be interesting to see if and when this happens how much platinum could be found in the market....."
Thats a good point I didn't think of. Will whats left of the "common dates" come to market at $1300-$1500 platinum? It may be harder to find good material on the market at those prices. Well I hope it falls back and there are still some people around that want to dump.
Thats a good point I didn't think of. Will whats left of the "common dates" come to market at $1300 platinum? If may be harder to find good material on the market at those prices. Well I hope it falls back and there are still some people around that want to dump.
I believe that Platinum melting has been taking place for a while now. There is still some fresh material out there but not enough for us to sit around and wait for too long. We collectors reap the benefits of all this because we are always willing to pay a premium (regardless of whether is a large or small premium). The big problem here is that most people are not willing to pay a premium at all. Here's a good example:
Last Saturday Platinum price was around $1975 (if I am not mistaken). Two auctions on eBay closed way below that. Auction number 190202120087, one 2007W $50 UNC Plat PCGS MS69 FS closed at $845. That's $1,690/OZ Platinum (minus eBay and PayPal fees). A 2007W $10 UNC Plat PCGS MS69 FS, auction number 190202121781, closed at $175. That's $1,750/OZ Platinum (minus eBay and PayPal fees).
That's why is easier to see these coins dance at the tune of melt, because smelters will pay fair price (even at these levels). These coins will continue to receive that treatment for as long as there is an opportunity out there for a few to turn a profit. One day supply will dry up. After that, heaven help us!
IMO most of the platinum coins put into IRA's were the bullion counterparts and not collector coins that cost much more. There are investors not collectors. As far as buying the 2008 early it just depends on when they are produced. In 2006 they came out at the end of the year and the mint still had a good supply going into the holidays. Once the holidays hit and vacations start they won't make another run due to manpower. If 2008 is a typical platinum year we'll see them this summer and I'll wait to see what the mintages are because if they sell out they will make another run. Now if Platinum is still going crazy I may have to rethink rather to purchase early but that's yet to be seen.
You can follow platinum purchases via numismatic news and see if there is any platinum being purchased, I would not expect to see much thoughout the year. A dip in the price during the middle of the year would likely soften interest in the metal, as investors would be looking at it being down alot from the highs earlier that year. I thought the mint began making the bullion coins of the following year in the 3rd or 4th quarter of the previous year? They could go back and make more if needed, but would they?
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
<< <i>Well I hope it falls back and there are still some people around that want to dump. >>
I think there may be some people still holding platinum waiting for the price to continue to rise. When (if?) it starts to fall back, I think there will be another wave of selling as people want to cash out before platinum prices bottom for an undetermined length of time.
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
When (if?) it starts to fall back, I think there will be another wave of selling as people want to cash out before platinum prices bottom for an undetermined length of time.
At which point it would drop even more because of over flooding which would make sets available. If Platinum pulls back it will open a very nice window for a few days to get some back dates...
Comments
I agree with Eric most of the time, but I don't think we'll ever see a day when there's a redbook grade for platinum coins at AU-55.
These aren't circulating commemoratives and you'd have to have some pretty deep pockets to use one for a pocket piece.
I fully understand the logic of rubbing a proof coin sold at melt to someone who isn't buying it for a collectible purpose but simply for bullion.
Doing so benefits the seller by ensuring its removal from the population, thereby incrementally raising the scarcity of his/her remaining holdings.
However, the thought of taking a nice MS69 or PF69 coin and planting a fingerprint on it, or shaking it in a jar of pocket change, is an act of sacrilege that makes me cringe a little.
An emotional response to a logical act designed to thin the herd.
I do agree with Coinhog- we don't have to destroy these coins to save them.
The act isn't taken to save them.
It is to ensure that the purchaser is not able to utilize the coin as anything other than bullion, and thereby potentially increase the value of the seller's remaining holdings.
I've always wanted to have a 1998 $100 Proof APE as a pocket piece. I guess my train has left on this one, with Plat at $2,200 I doubt I'll have the guts now to do that! I want a 1998 Pocket Piece and I will have one at some point, that's for sure!
Great story Mitch!
I agree. I'm not going to disparage anyone from defacing a coin they own... Mitch's example of even using a proof Ike as a pocket piece makes me feel a little queasy, but that's my own emotional response. Fact is, if you own it, you can do with it as you please.
In terms of tracking mintages, or in this case predicting surviving population, each time anyone does something like this, it makes the remaining coins slightly more scarce. Whether it's someone on this forum, or a faceless buyer at Kitco who cracks it out of a slab and sends it to a sparkplug manufacturer, it's already happening.
Guys - I have a customer who uses Proof $100 1997-W Platinum as pocket pieces and gives them to business associates and/or friends to do the same.
Wow! What business is he in, and what does it take to become an associate?
Regarding the "defacing" issue, is it possible to AT the plats? It seems to take forever for them to tone naturally!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Supplemented to add - the coin I selected had no chance to even grade PR69DC - it had problems to begin with. I, too, couldn't bring myself to use a top notch quality Ike as the pocket piece. And, why bother - with a little luck, the coin will get to Poor 1 grade in 10-20 years!
Wondercoin
<< <i>with a little luck, the coin will get to Poor 1 grade in 10-20 years! >>
that would be pretty cool to see platinum in PO1
snman
<< <i>I would rather seat here and listen to what people have to say and learn from it than pass judgment on everything that doesn't go well with me and watch people step back and stop talking in fear to be judged publicly. To those who have contributed to this thread and have come forth with valuable information, thank you! >>
I don't wish to cross the line from being critical to being judgmental, and I apologize for implied judgment creating offense. I think we all like these coins, and even mostly for the same reasons. Emotional involvement with these coins is probably what keeps everyone reading this thread. I do appreciate the logical responses to emotional posts here; it is indeed a great thread.
Edit to add: I actually like the idea of using an uncirculated fractional Buffalo, like a quarter ounce, as a pocket piece. I would think that .9999 Au would be a nice soft metal, it would wear nicely, and make a fun conversation piece. Yes, there may be this moral argument to consider, and I would argue that an expected high mintage and simulation of honest wear would excuse the decision to not preserve the coin in mint condition.
..... is way different.......
than intentionally defacing a perfectly acceptable coin for the whole purpose of depriving any future added value use of it. Yes, anyone can do whatever they want with what coins they own... but this 'logic' seems rather vindictive and self serving to me.... JMHO.
<< <i>There seems to be an unstated assumption that the "great melt of 2008" is an anomaly, which will cease when the platinum bubble bursts and the price returns to "normal."
What if it doesn't? What if the price of platinum goes higher and stays there?
It's entirely possible that demand from emerging Asian economies will sustain high platinum prices, regardless of whether the short-term electricity problems in the South African mines persist. If platinum prices stay high, the coin melts could continue for the indefinite future.
About a year's worth of current platinum consumption is tied up in APEs. Melting them could ease the supply crunch for some time to come. By the time the melts taper off, the remaining APEs could be held mostly by bullion hoarders and hardcore, well-heeled collectors. At that point, estimating the number of survivors for each date and mintmark would be difficult if not impossible. >>
But if the prices keep escalating I would assume the mintages for the coming years would decrease. The question than becomes which is less, the mintage of a 2008 or 2009, or the surviving mintage of 2006 or 2007 (hell, maybe the 1998 now has the lowest surviving mintage, I guess we will never know).
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
I actually like the idea of using an uncirculated fractional Buffalo, like a quarter ounce, as a pocket piece.
Cool! I wonder who will be the first to report owning a "dateless" gold Buffalo.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
My question is if 08 sells poorly and the plats in 2009 will require prices that are just out of sight will they make an 09? It may be unlikely but what if the platinum eagle program were to end? What would happen in the short run? What would happen in the long run? How would the market repond?
Ericj96
I have a few thoughts but I want to hear what others think first.
If this trend continues without a pull-back, prices on the 2009+ plats will be VERY high. I wonder what is the minimum quantity that the mint would be able to produce and still be able to turn a profit on the overall program. I can't imagine that they can produce much less than they did with the 2006 w-unc program and still be profitable. I think this unknown point is the key.
Looking back at the price of platinum since 1992 (I can't find any data earlier than that) when plat was approx $370/oz, there has been a clear and upward trend in the price on a fairly continuous basis. The only exception is a dip in 2000-01 when it looks like platinum dropped from about $650/oz to close to $370/oz. Other than that, its been fairly continuously upward in trend. General financial history indicates, however, that when we see a hard spike such as the one we've seen over the past 5 months, that there will be a pull-back at some point.
If the price continues to escalate, I suspect there will be fewer and fewer collectors as the years pass until the mint pulls the plug.
Having said all of that, the mint seems firmly committed to its "Premier Product." Is this commitment strong enough to finish off the 2009-2014 Preamble Series? I'm not sure. I would like to be optimistic, but at some point it may no longer be profitable to create the dies and set up the presses for such low runs.
I suspect that we'll see the price of platinum pull back to the ~$1600-1800 range over the next 6 months and then continue its rise. The data charts the FBL posted earlier, however indicate that when the "slack" is gone from the jewelry market, we may see another hard spike in price. Will the Preamble Series be finished by then? I'm not sure on this one either.
One last item that I don't have any insights on: Historically, do shorter or longer series of coins receive more attention from collectors? I'm not sure which would be better for the series in terms of attracting collectors. I'm inclined to think that there may be greater future interest in a shorter run for the series as this translates into less of a financial investment in order to collect the series. Of course, this could be a moot point since the series already has 2 themed short-sets and one more is planned. Will people go after the entire run, or will they be satisfied with the 1998-2002 Vistas of Liberty or just the 2006-2008 Pillars of Democracy sets?
Looks like I've asked more questions than provided answers... Such is learning!
Eric
Edit to add:
Historical Platinum Prices Since 1960: link It looks like there has been a great deal of price volatility in the past, especially in the time period of 1969-1971 and 1980-1981. Given this data, I am more confident in a fall-back to somewhere near $1500 in the next 6-12 months, and then a continued but slower climb in price...
I've heard about this commitment through 2014 before. Are there designs released or something?
I know about the 3 coin series through 2008, but the 2009-2014 plan is a mystery to me, though I know it's been mentioned here before.
<< <i>Is this commitment strong enough to finish off the 2009-2014 Preamble Series?
I've heard about this commitment through 2014 before. Are there designs released or something?
I know about the 3 coin series through 2008, but the 2009-2014 plan is a mystery to me, though I know it's been mentioned here before. >>
I will be buying the 2008 half-ounce proof to keep my registry set up to date and to finish the 3-coin subset.
I doubt, however, that I will be able to keep up with the '09 - '14 releases.
Anyone know the answer to NYcounsel's question?
If the 2008 proof coins went on sale tomorrow I still don't think the mintages are going to be much different then the past, even with all the time to sell them.....
As long as the mint can sell them and make some money they will.....
Why don't you think the number of coins sold in 2008 for changing reverse coins will not fall under 2004 numbers. You many be correct if you think the coins are already deep into the inelastic range of of the demand curve. I was under the impression that a cost structure like:
$100 ....$2695
$50.....$1395
$25.....$695
$10.....$295
COULD drive sales under the 2004 proofs.
Eric
<< <i>Raven,
Why don't you think the number of coins sold in 2008 for changing reverse coins will not fall under 2004 numbers. You many be correct if you think the coins are already deap into the inelastic range of of the demand curve. I was under the impression that a cost structure like:
$100 ....$2695
$50.....$1395
$25.....$695
$10.....$295
COULD drive sales under the 2004 proofs.
Eric >>
A lot of collectors/speculators/flippers will be monitoring the sales number and they will put in their orders to push the mintage above 04's
How are the mintages for these, how did I do?
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
If the platinum eagles series were to end with the 2008 issues, I think there would be at least a short term spike in popularity (and possibly prices for the keys), especially for the more affordable lower denominations.
Something along these lines happened when the Ike dollar was discontinued after 1978. In the short run, the series became more popular as a "closed set," and prices of the keys rose steadily through late 1980. At its peak the 1973-S silver proof Ike, with a mintage of about one million, was selling for more than $150 - over $400 at today's inflation-adjusted prices!
Long term, I think that the high bullion cost for the plats would moderate demand and keep prices of the keys from experiencing the outsized speculative excesses that accompanied the ending of the Ike dollar series. The plats' much smaller mintages and attractive changing reverse designs should also help maintain the series' popularity going forward.
If platinum prices don't go completely out of sight, I expect that a closed series (if one occurs) will increase long-term collector interest and make the platinum keys a good value going forward.
(Edited for spelling)
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Rare or not, I consider it the best design of the series along with the 1999.
IMHO best design no question.
<< <i>I just "saved" a 1998 complete proof set from being melted. I bought it for $4,100.
How are the mintages for these, how did I do? >>
Hiijacker
You can find mintages for proof eagles here
Use the drop-down window to pick a year.
<< <i>The price of the 2008 platinum W coins is a mute question to me. I saw this platinum price increase coming and took the precaution of buying insurance as I wanted to complete the 3 year series. The insurance was in the form of buying extra 2007 W $50 and $100 coins when they were still cheap. No matter what the Mint charges for the 2008s I will be able to sell the 2007s and cover the price. >>
This is a great way to acquire a lot of moderns and I use it often.
If you get something you don't want or of inferior quality then you
can just trade it for very little cost.
Great thread by the way.
<< <i>Raven,
Why don't you think the number of coins sold in 2008 for changing reverse coins will not fall under 2004 numbers. You many be correct if you think the coins are already deep into the inelastic range of of the demand curve. I was under the impression that a cost structure like:
$100 ....$2695
$50.....$1395
$25.....$695
$10.....$295
COULD drive sales under the 2004 proofs.
Eric >>
Eric,
What I meant was that I don't that if the proof coins went on sale April 1st, the mintage would be in the same range we have seen for the last few years if not lower then they had been with the potential to be lower then 2004 if the price keeps increasing.....
With the limited number of platinum collectors which exist and the high cost for flippers I don't think a big push at the end of the sale time of these coins will happen.....
Raven
This happens every time and somebody always gets left out.
We don't know how 2008 is going to go; but, I would recommend buying early if interested at all. The mint might do an initial run using existing materials and sell it at high prices. Depending on how the precious metals do, the mint might hold off on a second run until precious metals go down again (if they go down again).
The mint is a government agency and as such I find it hard to believe they will buy a large amount of Platinum in the open market and risk precious metals dropping the next day. And, if that happened we'll be buying some expensive Eagles regardless of wherever the spot for Platinum sits at that time. In other words, if the mint buys at $1,800 spot and a few days later spot drops to $1,500 you will still be buying Platinum Eagles at over $1,800 spot. Let's remember that the mint has no direct competition; if you want an eagle, you have to buy it from the mint.
Are people not using the bay right now to sell?
Eric
B&M is also quicker with no returns.
<< <i>The problem with seating on the fence til the last minute is that it is a gamble that not always pays off as the mint has a tendency of cutting things short. In 2006, the W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with Changing Reverses came at the end of a long exhausting year. Through the year, the mint had offered 20th Anniversary sets in addition to other options. By the time the Ws arrived the public was exhausted and many chose to sit that one out to see how things went. Those who waited too late, placed their orders but received nothing. Basically, waiting til the last minute is a gamble collectors usually don't take. Speculators do. 2008 Platinum Proofs could go either way but for those seating on the fence I have some advice, don't hold your breath if you are the last one to order because you might not get it.
This happens every time and somebody always gets left out.
We don't know how 2008 is going to go; but, I would recommend buying early if interested at all. The mint might do an initial run using existing materials and sell it at high prices. Depending on how the precious metals do, the mint might hold off on a second run until precious metals go down again (if they go down again).
The mint is a government agency and as such I find it hard to believe they will buy a large amount of Platinum in the open market and risk precious metals dropping the next day. And, if that happened we'll be buying some expensive Eagles regardless of wherever the spot for Platinum sits at that time. In other words, if the mint buys at $1,800 spot and a few days later spot drops to $1,500 you will still be buying Platinum Eagles at over $1,800 spot. Let's remember that the mint has no direct competition; if you want an eagle, you have to buy it from the mint. >>
I agree with you, I missed out on the 2006 1/10 oz W Unc because I was waiting (that and I spend all my time studying for my PE test).....
Here's an analogy - if you think of the extant population of all Plats as the ocean and rising prices as high tide that leaves some of them on the beach as it recedes, then each time the tide rises, it will leave some behind to get melted. From a probability standpoint, since there are more 1998s than there are 2004s, more 1998s will wash up onto the beach.
In this way, although the population of 1998s will ultimately approach the population of the 2004s, it will never quite equal the remaining population of 2004s, because of the market's built-in pricing mechanisms that account for availability vs. price.
On the other hand, think about the 1883 V-Nickels for a moment. Although there were 16,000,000 of them minted without "Cents" on the reverse and only 5,000,000 of them minted with "Cents" on the reverse, the "without Cents" variety is worth more than the "with Cents" variety, in every grade except Proof. Why is that? There were mitigating circumstances that affected the population of the "without Cents" variety. It was similar in design to the 5 dollar gold piece in circulation at the time, so it was frequently gold-plated in order to perpetrate fraud on the public, thereby significantly reducing the population of un-altered coins.
In the case of Plats, are there any circumstances which might mitigate the normal "thinning of the herd" which happens as prices rise and they are sold for melt? Just some food for thought.
I knew it would happen.
In theory this will reduce them to the point that the number of surviving examples may be close to level of the rarer years.
This reduced population may not be reflected in their market price as there will be a disproportionate number of top graded coins that will survive.
Also while everyone may agree that population has been reduced the published yearly mintages will likely still be used as a proxy for relative rarity for each issue.
I suspect that recently dated plats are more likely to be melted than older dates, and one-ounce coins are more likely to be melted than fractionals.
Many of the early dates were likely put into IRA accounts or otherwise saved for bullion purposes, by people who are keeping them for long-run appreciation and are in no hurry to sell. On the other hand, it appears to me that many of the recently dated coins, especially the "changing reverse" ones sold by the Mint, were apparently sold to those hoping for short-term appreciation. The recent rise in the price of platinum has provided that short-term appreciation.
It would make sense to melt the one-ounce coins for at least three reasons. First, the high price of platinum has impaired their collectability - the numismatic premium has virtually disappeared for all $100 plats except for the 2004-W proof, while some of the scarcer fractionals continue to command a premium. Second, the mintage of the one-ounce coins is typically higher than for the half-ounce and quarter-ounce versions. Third, owning a one-ounce coin is much riskier, in terms of platinum price volatility, than owning a smaller fractional.
Sustained melting of low-mintage $100 one-ounce platinum coins could possible cause them to eventually be scarcer than the even-lower-mintage $50 and $25 versions. But if by that time platinum is around $5,000 an ounce, will it really matter?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I think keeping an open mind as to source is always a good idea - no telling where bargains may be had.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>I suspect that recently dated plats are more likely to be melted than older dates, and one-ounce coins are more likely to be melted than fractionals.
Many of the early dates were likely put into IRA accounts or otherwise saved for bullion purposes, by people who are keeping them for long-run appreciation and are in no hurry to sell. On the other hand, it appears to me that many of the recently dated coins, especially the "changing reverse" ones sold by the Mint, were apparently sold to those hoping for short-term appreciation. The recent rise in the price of platinum has provided that short-term appreciation.
It would make sense to melt the one-ounce coins for at least three reasons. First, the high price of platinum has impaired their collectability - the numismatic premium has virtually disappeared for all $100 plats except for the 2004-W proof, while some of the scarcer fractionals continue to command a premium. Second, the mintage of the one-ounce coins is typically higher than for the half-ounce and quarter-ounce versions. Third, owning a one-ounce coin is much riskier, in terms of platinum price volatility, than owning a smaller fractional.
Sustained melting of low-mintage $100 one-ounce platinum coins could possible cause them to eventually be scarcer than the even-lower-mintage $50 and $25 versions. But if by that time platinum is around $5,000 an ounce, will it really matter? >>
*************
Well said,
If the 2007-w $100 mint state plats stop selling around 4500 coins and the price of platinum goes to $3000+ an oz over the next ten years I think they could get hit very hard. They are not a recognized key like the 2006-w but there are very few of them to start with. We could see some of the $100 coins with surviving pops that look like $50 Pan Pac slugs in 10 years. Its nothing to melt 3500 coins.
This whole deal reminds me of the 1932D and 1932s Washington quarters. The 32D had a low mintage but just not as low as the 32s. So everyone held onto 32s quarters and not the 32D. Nice 32D quarters are rare now and 32s not so much. Nothing is new under the sun. The larger the diameter the more likely that denominational set in the out years will be ruled by a dark horse.
Eric
I'll add to that. Mint State Uncirculated Platinum Eagles with "W" mint mark $100s are at greater risk than their proof counter parts. After all, there is a collector base for PR69 $100s (unlike MS69 $100s - too new to have a fully developed collector base at that level yet).
very deep and productive mines in South Africa. South Africa nation wide is seeing a pronounced
drop in ore grade of gold. How long will it take before the platinum mines are seeing the same
decline in ore quality? I am not suggesting that I think platinum is going to go nuts right now
as it may drop back as speculators loose interest but I am concerned. If the typical 6 percent decline
sets in for these three SA mines as they age what does that mean for platinums price?
Look at what is going on with Gold ore quality ..................Chamber of Mines Article
In 2007, South Africa’s gold production fell by 7.4% to 254 685 kilograms. This annual decline of
7.4% compares with the 6.3% per annum average rate of decline recorded over the past decade.
For gold mines, members of the Chamber of Mines production fell by 6.7% to 219 223 kilograms.
The 37% increase in capital expenditure by Chamber members fed through to a 5.8% increase in
the tons of material processed through the mills, but the 11.8% decrease in the average grade
mined to 4.12 grams per ton resulted in overall production declining.
FOURTH QUARTER 2007 GOLD PRODUCTION
On a year-on-year basis Chamber member production fell by 9% in the fourth quarter of 2007,
as the 6.3% increase in tons processed through the mills was insufficient to compensate for the
10% decline in the average grade recovered.
I hope the price of platinum drops back to the 1300 range like some metals wizards are
projecting so I can finish off some 97-99 back dates I need. If platinum falls off you guys may
wish to do the same.
I have come to the conclusion that $3000 platinum will result in the destruction of much of the
changing reverse platinum eagle back dates. One thing is a flat fact, "circulated" bullion dealers
like Kitco are getting their fare share of these coins right now. At some point the populations will
be small enough to overcome almost any material price. I think this point would be less than 1000
survivors in collectable grade.
Hoping for a period of cheap platinum.
No guarantees, but platinum coins could be an "endangered species" if high prices continue for the foreseeable future:
Possible long-term decline in platinum production, as suggested by Eric.
Possible continuing shortages of electricity in South Africa.
Possible steep decline in U.S. dollar, causing skyrocketing prices for ALL commodities, including platinum.
Possible deep recession, causing existing collectors to sell off their expensive platinum coins, and discouraging formation of new collections.
Rise of middle class in Asia, increased demand for platinum for automobile pollution control and energy (fuel cells etc.).
Ironically, many scarce platinum coins may wind up being saved by collectors transferring them from their collections to their bullion holdings. This would make sense as a diversification of precious metal holdings if the numismatic premiums disappear.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Would be interesting to see if and when this happens how much platinum could be found in the market.....
Thats a good point I didn't think of. Will whats left of the "common dates" come to market at $1300-$1500 platinum?
It may be harder to find good material on the market at those prices. Well I hope it falls back and there are still some people around that want to dump.
Eric
If may be harder to find good material on the market at those prices. Well I hope it falls back and there are still some people around that want to dump.
I believe that Platinum melting has been taking place for a while now. There is still some fresh material out there but not enough for us to sit around and wait for too long. We collectors reap the benefits of all this because we are always willing to pay a premium (regardless of whether is a large or small premium). The big problem here is that most people are not willing to pay a premium at all. Here's a good example:
Last Saturday Platinum price was around $1975 (if I am not mistaken). Two auctions on eBay closed way below that. Auction number 190202120087, one 2007W $50 UNC Plat PCGS MS69 FS closed at $845. That's $1,690/OZ Platinum (minus eBay and PayPal fees). A 2007W $10 UNC Plat PCGS MS69 FS, auction number 190202121781, closed at $175. That's $1,750/OZ Platinum (minus eBay and PayPal fees).
That's why is easier to see these coins dance at the tune of melt, because smelters will pay fair price (even at these levels). These coins will continue to receive that treatment for as long as there is an opportunity out there for a few to turn a profit. One day supply will dry up. After that, heaven help us!
<< <i>Well I hope it falls back and there are still some people around that want to dump. >>
I think there may be some people still holding platinum waiting for the price to continue to rise. When (if?) it starts to fall back, I think there will be another wave of selling as people want to cash out before platinum prices bottom for an undetermined length of time.
Eric
At which point it would drop even more because of over flooding which would make sets available. If Platinum pulls back it will open a very nice window for a few days to get some back dates...
Gold-w Mint State
one...21,274
half...12,854
quart..12,854
tenth..22,509
Proof Platinum
9,268
5,845 + 10th ann. sets
5,824
7,667
MS-w Platinum
4,425
3,930
3,900
5,783
Silver Eagle MS-w
563,771 + multi-dollar sets
<< <i>Sales report as of 3/11/2008
Gold-w Mint State
one...21,274
half...12,854
quart..12,854
tenth..22,509
Proof Platinum
9,268
5,845 + 10th ann. sets
5,824
7,667
MS-w Platinum
4,425
3,930
3,900
5,783
Silver Eagle MS-w
563,771 + multi-dollar sets >>
Thanks