WOW! guys - thank you very much for having me here - feels like home I apologize for not getting back to you sooner, but it was busy, busy, busy day at work. Plus today's my birthday!
NeoStar and jmski52 - I'm grateful you've found the time to answer my questions.
I'm much wiser now and ready to start "collecting" not just buying coins like I used to do before. I'll remember that "Keeping perspective is very key to staying in the game".
Just one more issue: I've tried to find mintage figures for proof plats on US Mint web site, but found only figures for uncirculated platinum eagles Could you guys send a link?
Happy Birthday Big B. You got to love platinum especially right now. $1,851/oz as we speak. I am sure we'll see $2,000/oz by Spring. Gold has stalled but I suspect it is primarily do to the frenzy in the platinum market.
You got to love platinum especially right now. $1,851/oz as we speak. I am sure we'll see $2,000/oz by Spring. Gold has stalled but I suspect it is primarily do to the frenzy in the platinum market.
I loved platinum when it was close to the price of gold but that was a long time ago. I also loved it in 2006 when I got a bunch of the "W"s. Now, it's getting overextended because of turmoil.
According to CW, 2007 bullion platinum and gold have set records. The numbers aren't given but the Mint's website shows:
1oz/half/quarter/tenth
4700/4600/5400/7000
Eric, these numbers on the "bullion" are getting close to what you have been stating that may make the "no W" coins valuable beyond spot. Not there yet. Maybe 2008 or 2009.
<< <i>If platinum was not so expensive right now, will it hold?, I would go and nab some 2007 bullion coins..... >>
I had to go to APEX to order my 1/10 ounce 2008 UNC bullion coin. I normally get them off of Ebay graded MS69 but they just aren't out there this year. I heard the mint is making bullion buyers get a millon dollars worth, I don't know if that's true but this could be a very low year for the bullion coins so I picked mine up sooner rater than later.
<< <i>According to CW, 2007 bullion platinum and gold have set records. The numbers aren't given but the Mint's website shows:
1oz/half/quarter/tenth
4700/4600/5400/7000
Eric, these numbers on the "bullion" are getting close to what you have been stating that may make the "no W" coins valuable beyond spot. Not there yet. Maybe 2008 or 2009.
Ren >>
See this numbers are different then the numbers listed above, but a big amount.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
<< <i>According to CW, 2007 bullion platinum and gold have set records. The numbers aren't given but the Mint's website shows:
1oz/half/quarter/tenth
4700/4600/5400/7000
Eric, these numbers on the "bullion" are getting close to what you have been stating that may make the "no W" coins valuable beyond spot. Not there yet. Maybe 2008 or 2009.
Ren >>
I have been stating that the bullion eagle over the sun coins would need to see numbers under that of the 06-w to have any chance at all. They need to fall to half those (2007) numbers to have any teeth and maybe not even then IMHO. The eagles are being collected as a type set not a date and mint mark set.
Big market channels for the bullion (eagle over the sun plats) are shutting down. Tulving is a good example. 08-09 bullion plats are very likely to have much lower mintages than the bullion coins that have come before including 2007 non "w".
I am working on a very long review of the behavior of series and back dates as the material prices drive the set "under water".
I have a 2006-W 1/4 oz platinum and actually didnt realize it was so "rare", I knew low numbers, but 2600'ish is really low. Any good guess on the numbers for the 2007-W? Maybe I should look into getting some rare platinums. I have the ase set in uncir, because they look really nice in the book and cheap to get, i've been looking at building a 1/4 oz lunar set, maybe I should really look at some of the APE's instead..especially the "special" burnished -W's
My viewpoint on collectible plats mirrors that line from Field of Dreams. If you build it, they will come. If the Mint makes a low mintage, collectible coin, collectors will follow.
Recent platinum coins, especially the 2006 w uncirculated coins, had a mintage that was, by normal numismatic measures, surprisingly low. A coin with a mintage of 2,600? HALF that of the Jackie Robinson $5 gold uncirculated coin? wow.
The $25 plats are approximately the same diameter as the $5 gold commems, and the issue price in 2006 (under $400), did not make them prohibitively expensive. Some members of this forum had a heads up as to the potential, which caused a surge in sales towards the end of the program, yet there were still only 2,676 sold (including coins in the 4 coin set).
Most collectors can afford to collect the $10 coins, yet in 2006 there were a paltry 3,544 sold (including coins in the 4 coin set)- an incredibly low number for a coin with an issue price under $200.
Those who argue that demand is an essential component of the equation are absolutely correct, and the low sales figures/mintage numbers were and continue to be an indication of lack of demand. However, I continue to believe that once the broader market sees the mintage numbers in print in the redbook (which, at the glacial pace that the redbook moves, won't be until 2015), collectors will be attracted to the scarcity if nothing else.
The same thing happened with the Jackie Robison uncirculated $5 gold, the 2004 platinum proofs, and even the 1995 w silver eagle. There was insufficient demand/interest at the time it was available from the Mint, which created opportunity. In each case it took a few years for each of those buds to bloom.
In 2006, there was a slightly different phenomenon -- some number of collectors/speculators with knowledge rapidly increased the aftermarket price shortly after sales were closed, driving prices up to between 3 and 5 x issue price. By March 2007, 2006 ws were already commanding prices up to $6,000 for PCGS ms69 4 coin set, $10,000 for an MS70 set, $2,600 for MS69 $100 coins (this was back in the old days, about 11 months ago, when platinum was still under $1300 an ounce). Demand peaked early, and then aftermarket sales started to decline, with prices dropping about 30% off of their highs by November 2007 despite the fact that platinum bullion was moving up. This was hard to figure out. Word was out, correct? Where was the demand? Prices should increase, not decrease.
My current theory is that the first price wave was the result of a small number of active buyers/speculators who recognized the potential but lacked the means to independently make the market/sustain demand. When their funds were depleted, and/or the prices started to drop, it helped cool the speculative interest, leading to the price lull of the last several months. There is a huge pool of collectors who are still unaware of platinum.
How many collectors subscribe to Numismatic News, Coin World, or are members of this board? Maybe 1 in 10? I don't know. But I think that despite numerous posts in this forum, and the occassional article in coin publications, the knowledge has not filtered down to the average collector- the guy or girl who buys the annual redbook and says wow to the 484,000 mintage of a 1909 s vdb, or might spend $250 for a 1997 special finish nickel with a 25,000 mintage, or may dream of one day owning a 1995 w silver eagle with a 30,000 mintage.
I believe that when that collector realizes that a much rarer, and inherently more valuable, platinum coin is out there, he/she will be drawn to it. Maybe not to collect the entire series, but to at least have a specimen of the rarest one. $600 is simply not enough for a $10 platinum coin with a 3,544 mintage and a melt value of $190. $1200 is not enough for a $25 platinum coin with a 2,676 mintage. $2050 is not enough for a $100 coin with a 3,068 mintage (and a current crazy melt value of $1950). That's my thinking anyway.
I note that although 2007 w unc mintages (while still historically low) are significantly higher than 2006 w uncs, with across-the-board increases of 30% or higher (and, in the case of the much more affordable $10 coins, approximately 70% more) - an upward movement that took place as issue prices increased. Platinum's move from $1500 to $1900+ in the last month or so is definitely going to have some impact, but that will be felt more on the larger coins and sets than on the $10 and $25 fractional coins, which might continue to see higher mintages in 2008 (recognizing that there are a lot of unknowns to resolve between now and when they are issued by the Mint)
Those who feel differently can certainly marshall facts to support their view... the Daniel Boone commemorative half has mintages as low as 2,000 for D & S mint coins and they don't cost thousands of dollars. For those coins, however, I think Eric's way of thinking may explain why- that these coins are largely viewed/collected by type rather than by date/mintmark, and across the board, the Daniel Boone commems have something around 85,000 specimens for the type.
With platinum around $2000 an ounce, a "type set" proof run of 12 tenth-ounce coins (1997-2008) has a bullion value of $2,400. Premiums on the 2004 and 2005 issues run the price to over $3,000. This is just for the smallest coin in the series (too small, in my opinion, to show the designs to best advantage). The same proof run on the quarter-ounce coins will have a bullion value of $6,000 and cost around $7,200.
If the price of platinum stays at these levels or continues to rise, it will limit the number of new people willing to collect this series. Other coin types and sets, especially those less impacted by rising bullion prices, will become relatively more affordable. At a high enough platinum price, even existing collectors may be tempted to sell or trade their platinum collections for other desirable coins.
"even existing collectors may be tempted to sell or trade their platinum collections for other desirable coins."
This is correct,
The question is who is paying sky high prices for the sets that sell...obviously not the collectors that are selling because the price of the set is worth more as melt than it is as a collectable. Ultimately industrial users of platinum must be percentage of the answer. So what does that mean for the market short term and long term. In theory the destruction of common dates reduces the need for key dates and dumps key dates on the market suppressing their value even as materials rise. Longer term the already very rare changing reverse plats have EVEN LOWER SURVIVING POPS!. When the longer term comes and the real pops drop the mintage tables we show with mintages in the 14,000-3,000 range will become no longer valid.
We could see 2001 plat halves numbers move from what we think are 8200 coins to 4,000 and not even know it. 2006-w $100 coins that are floating around looking for homes right now could find homes in a pot and 1500 could be the real number.
What I am getting at is longer term very high material prices can destroy a load of already rare coins. This set is going to be rarer and rarer if anything.
With platinum around $2000 an ounce, a "type set" proof run of 12 tenth-ounce coins (1997-2008) has a bullion value of $2,400
True, but someone could start collecting burnished uncirculated platinums without having to go back to 1997. Moreover, assuming one did want to collect all the platinum proofs, it could be done over a few years, not in one big gulp. Most collectors I know don't buy the entire series in one shot, but work to it over time. In your example, a type set of 12 (high grade) 1/10 ounce coins for maybe $3,000 based on today's melt price isn't that bad... no varieties or errors to change things and a high melt value.
How much would it cost to gather a full set of nice lincoln cents? S, D, P mintmarks, double dies, other errors... Or $5 gold commems? There are new entrants to the hobby all the time, and it usually takes a decent chunk of change to acquire a full set of any group of coins, especially one with a high bullion value.
When the longer term comes and the real pops drop the mintage tables we show with mintages in the 14,000-3,000 range will become no longer valid.
Surviving population has always been an open question. In 1997, platinum was under $400 an ounce, and those 15,000+ $100 proofs that sold were issued for $695 a pop. Same in 1998. There is not a sufficient collector base for those to have numismatic value, and they have been trading hands at melt for 10 years now. It stands to reason that some of these have, through the years, become wedding rings, watches, been used for catalytic converters, etc. What is the surviving population? Whatever it is, it still is larger than demand for the coins, because there is still no real numismatic upside (except for PCGS PF70 examples, which are low pop and carry a significant premium). Now, even 2006 w $100 coins have little value over melt-- in fact, coins were selling in November/December for $1700, which would give a 10% return on a 2 month investment if sold at melt.
The troubling thing with this is, as overdate pointed out, high bullion costs are a deterrent to new market entrants. Put another way, new collectors are discouraged from starting because it costs too much. New collectors are necessary to increase demand, and to add numismatic value to a coin that trades for melt value.
Even if over 50 percent of the 1997 proof plats got wiped out they would still be no big deal to the set and would be third place $100 proof. The 1997 coins from a relative mintage perspective in their sets were born dogs and still are. Melt can be expected to be the lot of 69 grade 1997-2000 coins until enough of them are gone to pull them into the 5,000-7,000 range.
The troubling thing with this is, as overdate pointed out, high bullion costs are a deterrent to new market entrants. Put another way, new collectors are discouraged from starting because it costs too much. New collectors are necessary to increase demand, and to add numismatic value to a coin that trades for melt value.
And someday in the not-too-distant future, this could mean that only 3 full sets exist, anywhere. Or 4 sets. Or 5 sets. Whatever that number is, it's going to be small.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
So I just did it, couldn't resist. Snatched the 2006-w burnished PCGS MS70 (10th Anniversary) $50 plat coin. Paid (about to) $1700. Hope I didn't overpaid? Could someone, please, explain the difference in those labels? is the Early Releases < No Label < First Strikes? and where the 10th (or 20th) Anniversary fits in?
And nice. I dont think you overpaid as well when you compare the numbers around vs some other coins. Look at the 1995 "W" SAE. That coins bullion value is 17'ish dollars. The coin has numbers over 30k, and yet sells for 4k+ graded, that is 235x's bullion value. Then take a 06 Reverse Proof SAE, I have 10 of those @ PCGS 69, yet they are only selling an average of 15x's bullion value, it has a population of 250k (2nd lowest mint). Your coin has bullion value of roughly 475 dollars, and only numbers has a population in the 2650 range, and you have a MS-70 which you paid just under 4x's bullion value for.....I think down the road your coin could be a steal. I collect SAE's and do not consider the W a must have, I would like to, but I cant justify that price tag. I think instead of going for the 1/4 oz gold set (was going for the lunars), I'm going to put together a 1/4oz platinum set. Already have the expensive coin, maybe I can pick up a 07 W burnished at long beach show @ plat prices
With the run up in the price of platinum over the last couple of months, mostly the last month, have bullion prices made the numismatic value of plats almost NA right now? The "average" collector may be priced out at these levels. How many people can pay $2K for a one ounce coin, that market is much smaller than at the $1300 dollar level last year IMHO.
The same is true on the other end of the scale. Look at the price of a 1/10 ounce plat, especially proof. When you pass $250 for a coin you are moving into different territory.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Regarding Platinum..... Some opinions on this would be great.
Is it worth the Premiums to purchase the following?
1) MS69's over MS70's
2) PR69's over PR70's
3) First strikes or Blue labels?
4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in? (Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?)
5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter?
6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other?
It seems like the spreads can be huge. So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices? Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in. This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
Jim, you are probably going to get a lot of responses to this, but I'll share my own thoughts to add to the mix. First, I think it's crazy to pay for plastic with these plats. Blue label, First Strike, etc...--all of these will proved to be absolutely worthless in the years ahead. As for 69s or 70s, if you are wanting to COLLECT, go for the 69s (but only PCGS and maybe NGC). The differences between a 69 and a 70 is so slight, you often will not be able to tell. If you're just doing it to invest then, a 70 at a good price might be worth a small premium.
As far as jumping in NOW, well, that's a tough call. I've backed off a bit at these high prices because I expect they will go down, though perhaps not for a year or two. The nice thing now is that, except for the 2004 and 2005 proofs and the 2006-w uncs, you can get the entire series for basically melt price. If you want to collect proofs, for instance, focus on the dates that will become semi-keys in the future. IMO, these are 2000 through 2003, and 2006. You may still pick up a good deal on the 2004 and 2005 keys, too, just gotta stay sharp.
Proofs or Uncs? Well, I doubt collecting the bullion uncs will ever pay off, except if mintage levels drop through the floor (which they might this year and forward). Main interest seems in proofs and unc-Ws. As others have pointed out, it's a great time to begin collecting the Unc-W series, since only 2 years have been released. You'll pay a premium for the 2006-ws, but I think the premium right now is as low as you're going to see it.
Also, I would collect 1/4 or 1/2 ounce series, maybe the 1-ouncers. In general, I think the mintages are too high for the 1/10 ouncers.
Let's see what the other guys say! Have fun whatever you decide!
Sneed
<< <i>Regarding Platinum..... Some opinions on this would be great.
Is it worth the Premiums to purchase the following?
1) MS69's over MS70's
2) PR69's over PR70's
3) First strikes or Blue labels?
4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in? (Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?)
5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter?
6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other?
It seems like the spreads can be huge. So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices? Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in. This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
It depends on the amount of the premium. I suspect that the spread between 69 vs. 70 has been decreasing with the rise in platinum, but I'd want to track it before making a final decision.
2) PR69's over PR70's
Same as above.
3) First strikes or Blue labels?
Not my cup of tea. For obvious reasons.
4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in? (Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?)
Someone has suggested that platinum prices will pull back when the power supply problem is addressed, but that could take years. That could indeed be the case, but it also might not be the case. It's a tough call, so my best advice would be to "average in" over time. (With prices the way they are, there isn't much other choice unless you happen to have a hundred grand just laying around, looking for a home. If that is the case, I'd still average in over time in order to spread out my market risk.)
5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter?
With the increase in the price of platinum, I suspect that the harder years will have been saved more intensively, and as a result - there is no advantage to doing either. Nobody really knows the survival rates of any of these Plats at this point. It could happen that a "common issue" platinum coin has been melted in large numbers, rendering it the key of the series. Stranger things have happened. This phenomenon could very well become more dramatic over time as the price keeps increasing. In addition, all of the usual coin advice applies - see the coin in-hand and be picky about quality, whether it's slabbed or not.
6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other?
Again, the skyrocketing price of platinum is erasing almost all premiums and "better value" is really a nebulous concept here. In ten years the dust may have settled, but in the meantime I'd say to collect what hits you between the eyeballs.
Added - I just read Griv's comments above, and here is my take. It just might happen that one of those boring little Uncs with a high mintage disappears for good, except for a small number held in collections. For example, suppose it happens to be an 1998 1/2 oz. Unc (mintage 32,419) in PCGS MS-69 holder. That's the highest mintage 1/2 ozer. It may not happen today or this year. Or next year. But, what do you suppose will happen when it becomes clear that nobody has one, except maybe 25 people?
It seems like the spreads can be huge. So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices?
My opinion - registry is a competition that helps to promote higher premiums for slabbed coins, particularly the ones graded 70. That's not necessarily a bad thing, and when you get into it, I'm sure that it provides some personal gratification and pride of ownership - which also plays into the premium structure, I am sure. However, I consider it a personal thing.
Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I think of 70s as icing on the cake whenever I get one. I consider my 69s and raw Plats as an integral part of my collection. In most cases (and at these high prices) the 69s and raw Plats don't have alot of premium, unless it's a scarce one, such as the 2004 Proofs or the 2006-W Burnished Uncs.
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in. This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
I wouldn't necessarily jump in, because I do expect HIGH VOLATILITY. But, even with today's pricing, I still might be tempted to tiptoe in.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Regarding Platinum..... Some opinions on this would be great.
Is it worth the Premiums to purchase the following?
1) MS69's over MS70's >>
IMHO I think so depending on the mintage. 2006-2008 MS70 are fairly high but even with 300 MS70s out of 5000 coins minted, I think a premium will continue to exist.
<< <i>2) PR69's over PR70's >>
IMHO I think it is the same situation as #1
<< <i>3) First strikes or Blue labels? >>
First Strikes are a Fad but so was long hair. Sure it's less common but there is always someone out there that appreciates the label. I certainly wouldn't bank on the FS Program but at the same time, it's still the same coin so if the coin has value then the FS designation can only add to it.
<< <i>4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in? (Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?) >>
I wish I could answer that with certainty but if I could I wouldn't be here, I'd be in the Bahamas or somewhere nice. also IMO and having a fair understanding of the platinum market, prices are unlikely to fall even when South Africa gets their mines back in production as it takes 9 months from the excavation of the ore until it is ready for use. The huge rise in global manufacturing is pushing existing stock to the brink which is why we see these sudden $60 a day jumps.
<< <i>5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter? >>
I believe in gunning all the time as you never know when availability will disappear. There are dozens of 70 grade Eagles that I have not seen for sale ever.
<< <i>6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other? >>
Usually but older MS eagles are super low pops in 70 so they command a huge premium. As far as recent eagles, the UNC-W Plats are poised to make a jump above the Proof plats of the same year. We'll have to wait for the spot price to calm down a little.
<< <i>It seems like the spreads can be huge. So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices? Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in. This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
Thanks for all of the help!! >>
In summary, I would not advise chasing the 70s unless you understand that what might be a $4000 coin might lose $1000 overnight due to pop rises. At the same time that $4000 coin might jump to $9000 if the market demands (don't hold your breath though). You are far more safe to deal in grade 69 or ungraded eagles as they will always at least trade for spot +/- and any upside is well, an upside.
<< <i>Added - I just read Griv's comments above, and here is my take. It just might happen that one of those boring little Uncs with a high mintage disappears for good, except for a small number held in collections. For example, suppose it happens to be an 1998 1/2 oz. Unc (mintage 32,419) in PCGS MS-69 holder. That's the highest mintage 1/2 ozer. It may not happen today or this year. Or next year. But, what do you suppose will happen when it becomes clear that nobody has one, except maybe 25 people? >>
I didn't address this with my post but jmski52 brings up a very important consideration because frankly no one knows the extent of the melting. The latest laws designed to prevent the melting of coins do not apply to the Eagles or the 1st Spouses so as we saw last month that over 1000 1st Spouses were melted by one entity alone. With most of the plat coins minted at less than $1000/oz, how many do you think will escape the fire? In addition, UNC plats and gold were/are used extensively in IRAs which require physical handling of the coins which basically eliminates and numismatic value as I can promise you they didn't use cotton gloves and 4x4s. They are only good for melt.
So I agree that 10-20 years down the road a lot of these so called high mintage coins may simply not be found. The 1999 $25 UNC gold is one of the highest minted in the series. Only 1 MS70 exists. I personally submitted over 50 with several I thought at 70 but I got none. That doesn't mean someone else won't make a second at some point but it doesn't look that way at least for now. IMO
Comments
Not often I get to this.
I apologize for not getting back to you sooner, but it was busy, busy, busy day at work. Plus today's my birthday!
NeoStar and jmski52 - I'm grateful you've found the time to answer my questions.
I'm much wiser now and ready to start "collecting" not just buying coins like I used to do before. I'll remember that "Keeping perspective is very key to staying in the game".
Just one more issue:
I've tried to find mintage figures for proof plats on US Mint web site, but found only figures for uncirculated platinum eagles
Could you guys send a link?
Cheers,
Marcin.
Proof Eagles Mintages
what a coincidence
and thanks for the link. appreciate it.
Marcin.
Cheers!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Happy Birthdays, Ben and Marcin!
That coin looks awfully familiar.
I don't have any 2004 plat eagle (yet)
I loved platinum when it was close to the price of gold but that was a long time ago. I also loved it in 2006 when I got a bunch of the "W"s. Now, it's getting overextended because of turmoil.
ren
These are a few of my favorite things.
Miles
<< <i>I love Platinum in the springtime, I love Platinum in the fall, I love Platinum most of all!
These are a few of my favorite things.
Miles >>
But, very nice things.
1oz/half/quarter/tenth
4700/4600/5400/7000
Eric, these numbers on the "bullion" are getting close to what you have been stating that may make the "no W" coins valuable beyond spot. Not there yet. Maybe 2008 or 2009.
Ren
How many in 2006?
Thanks!
How many in 2006?
Somewhere on the order of 252,000 Proofs in 2006.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If platinum was not so expensive right now, will it hold?, I would go and nab some 2007 bullion coins..... >>
I had to go to APEX to order my 1/10 ounce 2008 UNC bullion coin. I normally get them off of Ebay graded MS69 but they just aren't out there this year. I heard the mint is making bullion buyers get a millon dollars worth, I don't know if that's true but this could be a very low year for the bullion coins so I picked mine up sooner rater than later.
<< <i>According to CW, 2007 bullion platinum and gold have set records. The numbers aren't given but the Mint's website shows:
1oz/half/quarter/tenth
4700/4600/5400/7000
Eric, these numbers on the "bullion" are getting close to what you have been stating that may make the "no W" coins valuable beyond spot. Not there yet. Maybe 2008 or 2009.
Ren >>
See this numbers are different then the numbers listed above, but a big amount.....
<< <i>According to CW, 2007 bullion platinum and gold have set records. The numbers aren't given but the Mint's website shows:
1oz/half/quarter/tenth
4700/4600/5400/7000
Eric, these numbers on the "bullion" are getting close to what you have been stating that may make the "no W" coins valuable beyond spot. Not there yet. Maybe 2008 or 2009.
Ren >>
I have been stating that the bullion eagle over the sun coins would need to see numbers under that of the 06-w to have any chance at all. They need to fall to half those (2007) numbers to have any teeth and maybe not even then IMHO. The eagles are being collected as a type set not a date and mint mark set.
Big market channels for the bullion (eagle over the sun plats) are shutting down. Tulving is a good example. 08-09 bullion plats are very likely to have much lower mintages than the bullion coins that have come before including 2007 non "w".
I am working on a very long review of the behavior of series and back dates as the material prices drive the set "under water".
Ericj96
<< <i>Where's our beloved BuffHunter to disute the 2006-w mintage numbers with his CoinWorld mintage numbers?
Yes I thought about that too but decided to let it ride....I'm not right all the time either.
Great comments. I fell more informed after reading through ALL of this and now need a potty break!
Gardnerville, NV
=========================
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<< <i>WOW!
Great comments. I fell more informed after reading through ALL of this and now need a potty break!
TOO MUCH INFORMATION!!!
I have a 2006-W 1/4 oz platinum and actually didnt realize it was so "rare", I knew low numbers, but 2600'ish is really low. Any good guess on the numbers for the 2007-W? Maybe I should look into getting some rare platinums. I have the ase set in uncir, because they look really nice in the book and cheap to get, i've been looking at building a 1/4 oz lunar set, maybe I should really look at some of the APE's instead..especially the "special" burnished -W's
thanks
Recent platinum coins, especially the 2006 w uncirculated coins, had a mintage that was, by normal numismatic measures, surprisingly low. A coin with a mintage of 2,600? HALF that of the Jackie Robinson $5 gold uncirculated coin? wow.
The $25 plats are approximately the same diameter as the $5 gold commems, and the issue price in 2006 (under $400), did not make them prohibitively expensive. Some members of this forum had a heads up as to the potential, which caused a surge in sales towards the end of the program, yet there were still only 2,676 sold (including coins in the 4 coin set).
Most collectors can afford to collect the $10 coins, yet in 2006 there were a paltry 3,544 sold (including coins in the 4 coin set)- an incredibly low number for a coin with an issue price under $200.
Those who argue that demand is an essential component of the equation are absolutely correct, and the low sales figures/mintage numbers were and continue to be an indication of lack of demand. However, I continue to believe that once the broader market sees the mintage numbers in print in the redbook (which, at the glacial pace that the redbook moves, won't be until 2015), collectors will be attracted to the scarcity if nothing else.
The same thing happened with the Jackie Robison uncirculated $5 gold, the 2004 platinum proofs, and even the 1995 w silver eagle. There was insufficient demand/interest at the time it was available from the Mint, which created opportunity. In each case it took a few years for each of those buds to bloom.
In 2006, there was a slightly different phenomenon -- some number of collectors/speculators with knowledge rapidly increased the aftermarket price shortly after sales were closed, driving prices up to between 3 and 5 x issue price. By March 2007, 2006 ws were already commanding prices up to $6,000 for PCGS ms69 4 coin set, $10,000 for an MS70 set, $2,600 for MS69 $100 coins (this was back in the old days, about 11 months ago, when platinum was still under $1300 an ounce). Demand peaked early, and then aftermarket sales started to decline, with prices dropping about 30% off of their highs by November 2007 despite the fact that platinum bullion was moving up. This was hard to figure out. Word was out, correct? Where was the demand? Prices should increase, not decrease.
My current theory is that the first price wave was the result of a small number of active buyers/speculators who recognized the potential but lacked the means to independently make the market/sustain demand. When their funds were depleted, and/or the prices started to drop, it helped cool the speculative interest, leading to the price lull of the last several months. There is a huge pool of collectors who are still unaware of platinum.
How many collectors subscribe to Numismatic News, Coin World, or are members of this board? Maybe 1 in 10? I don't know. But I think that despite numerous posts in this forum, and the occassional article in coin publications, the knowledge has not filtered down to the average collector- the guy or girl who buys the annual redbook and says wow to the 484,000 mintage of a 1909 s vdb, or might spend $250 for a 1997 special finish nickel with a 25,000 mintage, or may dream of one day owning a 1995 w silver eagle with a 30,000 mintage.
I believe that when that collector realizes that a much rarer, and inherently more valuable, platinum coin is out there, he/she will be drawn to it. Maybe not to collect the entire series, but to at least have a specimen of the rarest one. $600 is simply not enough for a $10 platinum coin with a 3,544 mintage and a melt value of $190. $1200 is not enough for a $25 platinum coin with a 2,676 mintage. $2050 is not enough for a $100 coin with a 3,068 mintage (and a current crazy melt value of $1950). That's my thinking anyway.
I note that although 2007 w unc mintages (while still historically low) are significantly higher than 2006 w uncs, with across-the-board increases of 30% or higher (and, in the case of the much more affordable $10 coins, approximately 70% more) - an upward movement that took place as issue prices increased. Platinum's move from $1500 to $1900+ in the last month or so is definitely going to have some impact, but that will be felt more on the larger coins and sets than on the $10 and $25 fractional coins, which might continue to see higher mintages in 2008 (recognizing that there are a lot of unknowns to resolve between now and when they are issued by the Mint)
Those who feel differently can certainly marshall facts to support their view... the Daniel Boone commemorative half has mintages as low as 2,000 for D & S mint coins and they don't cost thousands of dollars. For those coins, however, I think Eric's way of thinking may explain why- that these coins are largely viewed/collected by type rather than by date/mintmark, and across the board, the Daniel Boone commems have something around 85,000 specimens for the type.
With platinum around $2000 an ounce, a "type set" proof run of 12 tenth-ounce coins (1997-2008) has a bullion value of $2,400. Premiums on the 2004 and 2005 issues run the price to over $3,000. This is just for the smallest coin in the series (too small, in my opinion, to show the designs to best advantage). The same proof run on the quarter-ounce coins will have a bullion value of $6,000 and cost around $7,200.
If the price of platinum stays at these levels or continues to rise, it will limit the number of new people willing to collect this series. Other coin types and sets, especially those less impacted by rising bullion prices, will become relatively more affordable. At a high enough platinum price, even existing collectors may be tempted to sell or trade their platinum collections for other desirable coins.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
This is correct,
The question is who is paying sky high prices for the sets that sell...obviously not the collectors that are selling because the price of the set is worth more as melt than it is as a collectable. Ultimately industrial users of platinum must be percentage of the answer. So what does that mean for the market short term and long term. In theory the destruction of common dates reduces the need for key dates and dumps key dates on the market suppressing their value even as materials rise. Longer term the already very rare changing reverse plats have EVEN LOWER SURVIVING POPS!. When the longer term comes and the real pops drop the mintage tables we show with mintages in the 14,000-3,000 range will become no longer valid.
We could see 2001 plat halves numbers move from what we think are 8200 coins to 4,000 and not even know it. 2006-w $100 coins that are floating around looking for homes right now could find homes in a pot and 1500 could be the real number.
What I am getting at is longer term very high material prices can destroy a load of already rare coins. This set is going to be rarer and rarer if anything.
Much more to say but must go now.
Eric
True, but someone could start collecting burnished uncirculated platinums without having to go back to 1997. Moreover, assuming one did want to collect all the platinum proofs, it could be done over a few years, not in one big gulp. Most collectors I know don't buy the entire series in one shot, but work to it over time. In your example, a type set of 12 (high grade) 1/10 ounce coins for maybe $3,000 based on today's melt price isn't that bad... no varieties or errors to change things and a high melt value.
How much would it cost to gather a full set of nice lincoln cents? S, D, P mintmarks, double dies, other errors... Or $5 gold commems? There are new entrants to the hobby all the time, and it usually takes a decent chunk of change to acquire a full set of any group of coins, especially one with a high bullion value.
Surviving population has always been an open question. In 1997, platinum was under $400 an ounce, and those 15,000+ $100 proofs that sold were issued for $695 a pop. Same in 1998. There is not a sufficient collector base for those to have numismatic value, and they have been trading hands at melt for 10 years now. It stands to reason that some of these have, through the years, become wedding rings, watches, been used for catalytic converters, etc. What is the surviving population? Whatever it is, it still is larger than demand for the coins, because there is still no real numismatic upside (except for PCGS PF70 examples, which are low pop and carry a significant premium). Now, even 2006 w $100 coins have little value over melt-- in fact, coins were selling in November/December for $1700, which would give a 10% return on a 2 month investment if sold at melt.
The troubling thing with this is, as overdate pointed out, high bullion costs are a deterrent to new market entrants. Put another way, new collectors are discouraged from starting because it costs too much. New collectors are necessary to increase demand, and to add numismatic value to a coin that trades for melt value.
I have been looking for a 06-W 1/10 on original packaging and can't find one, since I decided I wanted one a little bit ago.....
The 1/10 proofs are also difficult to find, most stores seem to have a few proof plats in any of them. At shows it seems worse.....
I don't ever recall seeing the 2004 proof coins anyplace.....
And someday in the not-too-distant future, this could mean that only 3 full sets exist, anywhere. Or 4 sets. Or 5 sets. Whatever that number is, it's going to be small.
I knew it would happen.
Ren
Get to work on the few 2008 ones which are going to be sold.....
Could someone, please, explain the difference in those labels? is the Early Releases < No Label < First Strikes? and where the 10th (or 20th) Anniversary fits in?
Best,
Marcin.
ericj96
And nice. I dont think you overpaid as well when you compare the numbers around vs some other coins. Look at the 1995 "W" SAE. That coins bullion value is 17'ish dollars. The coin has numbers over 30k, and yet sells for 4k+ graded, that is 235x's bullion value. Then take a 06 Reverse Proof SAE, I have 10 of those @ PCGS 69, yet they are only selling an average of 15x's bullion value, it has a population of 250k (2nd lowest mint). Your coin has bullion value of roughly 475 dollars, and only numbers has a population in the 2650 range, and you have a MS-70 which you paid just under 4x's bullion value for.....I think down the road your coin could be a steal. I collect SAE's and do not consider the W a must have, I would like to, but I cant justify that price tag. I think instead of going for the 1/4 oz gold set (was going for the lunars), I'm going to put together a 1/4oz platinum set. Already have the expensive coin, maybe I can pick up a 07 W burnished at long beach show @ plat prices
<< <i>Please someone tell me how to unsubscribe! I am not being sarcastic, I really cant find the unsubscribe button. >>
I guess it can be poofed but that wouldn't be fair to Eric.
Ren
<< <i>Please someone tell me how to unsubscribe! I am not being sarcastic, I really cant find the unsubscribe button. >>
coolest, go to "today", see subscription, box to the right, check it, then click on "unsubscribe" towards the bottom of the subscription section.
ren
The same is true on the other end of the scale. Look at the price of a 1/10 ounce plat, especially proof. When you pass $250 for a coin you are moving into different territory.
You did great!
Ben
Is it worth the Premiums to purchase the following?
1) MS69's over MS70's
2) PR69's over PR70's
3) First strikes or Blue labels?
4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in?
(Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?)
5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter?
6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other?
It seems like the spreads can be huge.
So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices?
Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in.
This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
Thanks for all of the help!!
Gardnerville, NV
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Jim, you are probably going to get a lot of responses to this, but I'll share my own thoughts to add to the mix. First, I think it's crazy to pay for plastic with these plats. Blue label, First Strike, etc...--all of these will proved to be absolutely worthless in the years ahead. As for 69s or 70s, if you are wanting to COLLECT, go for the 69s (but only PCGS and maybe NGC). The differences between a 69 and a 70 is so slight, you often will not be able to tell. If you're just doing it to invest then, a 70 at a good price might be worth a small premium.
As far as jumping in NOW, well, that's a tough call. I've backed off a bit at these high prices because I expect they will go down, though perhaps not for a year or two. The nice thing now is that, except for the 2004 and 2005 proofs and the 2006-w uncs, you can get the entire series for basically melt price. If you want to collect proofs, for instance, focus on the dates that will become semi-keys in the future. IMO, these are 2000 through 2003, and 2006. You may still pick up a good deal on the 2004 and 2005 keys, too, just gotta stay sharp.
Proofs or Uncs? Well, I doubt collecting the bullion uncs will ever pay off, except if mintage levels drop through the floor (which they might this year and forward). Main interest seems in proofs and unc-Ws. As others have pointed out, it's a great time to begin collecting the Unc-W series, since only 2 years have been released. You'll pay a premium for the 2006-ws, but I think the premium right now is as low as you're going to see it.
Also, I would collect 1/4 or 1/2 ounce series, maybe the 1-ouncers. In general, I think the mintages are too high for the 1/10 ouncers.
Let's see what the other guys say! Have fun whatever you decide!
Sneed
<< <i>Regarding Platinum..... Some opinions on this would be great.
Is it worth the Premiums to purchase the following?
1) MS69's over MS70's
2) PR69's over PR70's
3) First strikes or Blue labels?
4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in?
(Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?)
5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter?
6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other?
It seems like the spreads can be huge.
So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices?
Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in.
This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
Thanks for all of the help!! >>
1) MS69's over MS70's
It depends on the amount of the premium. I suspect that the spread between 69 vs. 70 has been decreasing with the rise in platinum, but I'd want to track it before making a final decision.
2) PR69's over PR70's
Same as above.
3) First strikes or Blue labels?
Not my cup of tea. For obvious reasons.
4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in?
(Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?)
Someone has suggested that platinum prices will pull back when the power supply problem is addressed, but that could take years. That could indeed be the case, but it also might not be the case. It's a tough call, so my best advice would be to "average in" over time. (With prices the way they are, there isn't much other choice unless you happen to have a hundred grand just laying around, looking for a home. If that is the case, I'd still average in over time in order to spread out my market risk.)
5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter?
With the increase in the price of platinum, I suspect that the harder years will have been saved more intensively, and as a result - there is no advantage to doing either. Nobody really knows the survival rates of any of these Plats at this point. It could happen that a "common issue" platinum coin has been melted in large numbers, rendering it the key of the series. Stranger things have happened. This phenomenon could very well become more dramatic over time as the price keeps increasing. In addition, all of the usual coin advice applies - see the coin in-hand and be picky about quality, whether it's slabbed or not.
6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other?
Again, the skyrocketing price of platinum is erasing almost all premiums and "better value" is really a nebulous concept here. In ten years the dust may have settled, but in the meantime I'd say to collect what hits you between the eyeballs.
Added - I just read Griv's comments above, and here is my take. It just might happen that one of those boring little Uncs with a high mintage disappears for good, except for a small number held in collections. For example, suppose it happens to be an 1998 1/2 oz. Unc (mintage 32,419) in PCGS MS-69 holder. That's the highest mintage 1/2 ozer. It may not happen today or this year. Or next year. But, what do you suppose will happen when it becomes clear that nobody has one, except maybe 25 people?
It seems like the spreads can be huge.
So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices?
My opinion - registry is a competition that helps to promote higher premiums for slabbed coins, particularly the ones graded 70. That's not necessarily a bad thing, and when you get into it, I'm sure that it provides some personal gratification and pride of ownership - which also plays into the premium structure, I am sure. However, I consider it a personal thing.
Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I think of 70s as icing on the cake whenever I get one. I consider my 69s and raw Plats as an integral part of my collection. In most cases (and at these high prices) the 69s and raw Plats don't have alot of premium, unless it's a scarce one, such as the 2004 Proofs or the 2006-W Burnished Uncs.
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in. This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
I wouldn't necessarily jump in, because I do expect HIGH VOLATILITY. But, even with today's pricing, I still might be tempted to tiptoe in.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Regarding Platinum..... Some opinions on this would be great.
Is it worth the Premiums to purchase the following?
1) MS69's over MS70's >>
IMHO I think so depending on the mintage. 2006-2008 MS70 are fairly high but even with 300 MS70s out of 5000 coins minted, I think a premium will continue to exist.
<< <i>2) PR69's over PR70's >>
IMHO I think it is the same situation as #1
<< <i>3) First strikes or Blue labels? >>
First Strikes are a Fad but so was long hair. Sure it's less common but there is always someone out there that appreciates the label. I certainly wouldn't bank on the FS Program but at the same time, it's still the same coin so if the coin has value then the FS designation can only add to it.
<< <i>4) With Platinum at these levels, is it stupid to start jumping in?
(Is it like buying stocks at all time highs, before things tank?) >>
I wish I could answer that with certainty but if I could I wouldn't be here, I'd be in the Bahamas or somewhere nice. also IMO and having a fair understanding of the platinum market, prices are unlikely to fall even when South Africa gets their mines back in production as it takes 9 months from the excavation of the ore until it is ready for use. The huge rise in global manufacturing is pushing existing stock to the brink which is why we see these sudden $60 a day jumps.
<< <i>5) Should one gun for the Harder years first or ?? Does it really matter? >>
I believe in gunning all the time as you never know when availability will disappear. There are dozens of 70 grade Eagles that I have not seen for sale ever.
<< <i>6) Do Proofs or MS coins have a better value over the other? >>
Usually but older MS eagles are super low pops in 70 so they command a huge premium. As far as recent eagles, the UNC-W Plats are poised to make a jump above the Proof plats of the same year. We'll have to wait for the spot price to calm down a little.
<< <i>It seems like the spreads can be huge.
So, is 70 chasing just good for the registry or is there some upside to already high prices?
Seems like in many cases the 69's could be the buy, but is that just going to ride the Platinum prices up and down?
I'm just getting my head wrapped around this and thinking about jumping in.
This thread has been very informative and I do not own even a single Platinum coin as of yet, but want to know BEFORE jumping in, what to expect.
Thanks for all of the help!! >>
In summary, I would not advise chasing the 70s unless you understand that what might be a $4000 coin might lose $1000 overnight due to pop rises. At the same time that $4000 coin might jump to $9000 if the market demands (don't hold your breath though). You are far more safe to deal in grade 69 or ungraded eagles as they will always at least trade for spot +/- and any upside is well, an upside.
Someday, my Plats are going to take me and my sweetie to one of these nice places!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Added - I just read Griv's comments above, and here is my take. It just might happen that one of those boring little Uncs with a high mintage disappears for good, except for a small number held in collections. For example, suppose it happens to be an 1998 1/2 oz. Unc (mintage 32,419) in PCGS MS-69 holder. That's the highest mintage 1/2 ozer. It may not happen today or this year. Or next year. But, what do you suppose will happen when it becomes clear that nobody has one, except maybe 25 people? >>
I didn't address this with my post but jmski52 brings up a very important consideration because frankly no one knows the extent of the melting. The latest laws designed to prevent the melting of coins do not apply to the Eagles or the 1st Spouses so as we saw last month that over 1000 1st Spouses were melted by one entity alone. With most of the plat coins minted at less than $1000/oz, how many do you think will escape the fire? In addition, UNC plats and gold were/are used extensively in IRAs which require physical handling of the coins which basically eliminates and numismatic value as I can promise you they didn't use cotton gloves and 4x4s. They are only good for melt.
So I agree that 10-20 years down the road a lot of these so called high mintage coins may simply not be found. The 1999 $25 UNC gold is one of the highest minted in the series. Only 1 MS70 exists. I personally submitted over 50 with several I thought at 70 but I got none. That doesn't mean someone else won't make a second at some point but it doesn't look that way at least for now. IMO