Going forward, especially if platinum price keeps rising, I would expect the proof and w-unc 1/4 ounce coins to be better values than the 1/2 ounce coins. Typically the mintage of the 1/4 ounce is only slightly higher than that of the 1/2 ounce, and it is much more affordable.
The 1/4 is not only more affordable now but also, if the metals keep on rising, it will remain more affordable longterm which may help its collector base growth. I personally believe that the 1/2 will do well as well...
Guess everyine already knows the mint is selling 2007-w half and quarter plat returns right now. The $100 coins and $10 are in inventory in quantity more than likely. If you want a quarter go get one. Problem is at this point they (the quarters)are not virgins and you may be better buying graded 70s off the bay at $525 each.
Tuesday January 08, 2008 7:16 PM...................Very little has changed from Jan 8th...here it is again:
Unless the mint has made a radical departure from its long standing striking and packaging relationships between the denominations and 4 coin sets the unc plat halves and quarters should die off very soon.
A little over 4200 plus or minus 250 coins is what the math is telling us for the half and quarter. Guys lets not let our wonderful good fortune last year bias our views. These coins are going to be the 5th and 6th rarest design and denomination based Unc and proof type coins issued since 1915. They are not going to spike as hard out of the box as the 2006 changing reverse plats did but they are MEGA COINS in their own right and will take their place among the greatest modern issues within the next ten years unless something serious happens to the economy. A little patience will be needed this time........and I know thats a commodity in short supply for the flippers! :-)
Wishing you guys well,
Ericj96
Added now.....The 4 coin set is in the mints bone yard listings. The half went up and came back down almost instantly because the returns in inventory were few. The quarters are few but I still like the old ratios and that brings the quarters in at 4200 plus or minus 250 coins.
I have been thinking about the market lately and have some real concerns:
GOLD: Price and Cannibalization
The fractional buffalos that I have been fearing are coming to pass this year. The one oz buff gold sucked so much money out of the market last time that the Gold Eagles with the Saint obverse had their sales crash for months....even denominations that do not compete directly got hit. The numbers say it all: In 2004 you could buy a $25 mint state eagle from a dealer or a proof $25 eagle from the mint. Two coins and $600 later you were through with all the gold halves. Now proof eagle, bullion eagle, unc-w eagle, 8 spouses, proof buff, and unc buff exist so we are looking at 13 gold halves at $6500. Look out falling mintages and back date key values relative to melt when they become king of nothing.
The mint did what it said it would and is now offering for sale the rest of the 2007-w gold. About 11,000 halves and quarters have sold. If they sell for a while and sell out in the 15,000+ range like the 06-w they will be worth melt plus a fraction for years. ALL back KEY date eagles are in trouble except for maybe the 99-w gold eagles. Heaven help the long term value of the 1991 half at $1000 bucks each when they start coming out of baby boomer 401k programs like Universal coin by the roll and rank 5th place instead of first in series.
We are entering a period where SO much modern gold of competing designs is being dumped on the market at the same time at very high prices that new keys are going to show up everywhere. Old so called key dates with mintages well over 10,000 are going to be in a world of hurt.
My advice to those who like gold is to sit back save your money and pick up gold issues with mintages in the 8,000 to 10,000 range over the coming months and years. We must learn to become very picky because we can't afford it all. Do focus on coins that have strong and obvious unifying design elements because we are moving into an era of design confusion the likes of we have never seen before. I think the coin market is going to be looking for order in the midst of the Chaos at some point. Do not let the high material prices and too many issues discourage you because opportunity knocks at our door.
The mint has over issued before and cut back. I think this will happen again at some point. In 2010 the Gold eagle Saint will have run for 25 years and will no longer be protected from change. I would not be shocked if the gold eagles program is the one that gets axed at that time. IF thats true and it takes place after more 3 years of very low mintage "w" mint mark gold the set will be in good shape. A closed gold series with half a dozen very low mintage mint marked coins and massive common date populations has the genetics to be impressive.
We don't know whats going to give but something must.
Platinum: Its all about price.
The mint has come out with a 1,000 oz minimum order requirement for the big dealers that buy the bullion with the constant eagle over the sun design. Guys thats a minimum order of about 1.8 million dollars with no return option and they have to compete with the changing reverse Unc-w plats with a thirty day return option. Some of the big buyers that have never failed to buy and carry the bullion issues are saying they have "NO INTEREST! IN 2008". 08 and 09 sales are likely to be so much lower than 2007 platinum bullion sales its not even funny. What if they sell say very roughly 3,000 platinum eagle bullion quarters will you want to buy them? The contrarian in me wants to think about it until I consider that the MS set carries the 06-w and 07-w with mintages in the 2,500 to 4,500 range and the bullion coin has zero type rarity or looks to help it out. To be a great coin the eagle over the sun set is going to need a mintage sub 3,000 to have a chance.
If you graph total platinum sales in oz and coins you will see that the only thing that turned around the endless drop in unit sales over the last 10 years is the changing reverse proofs and "w" issues and the mint is aware of this. The mint is also aware that the "w" plats are cannibalizing bullion sales.
If mintages are low this year and flippers jump in on a 3,000 issue coin and find that the eagle over the sun coins spike for 3 months then crash back to melt and stays there they may not be so quick to do it again the following year. High cost and no sales makes for a prime candidate to get pulled from the mints offerings at some point and they more than likely will not give us lots of notice. If the bullion coins just don't sell and the mint closes the program for the year or for good. THEN we may have something. My point is the static reverse plats situation is going to get allot worse soon.
I have been trying to figure out what effect if any the higher prices will have on the mint striking run behavior this year. All of us are concerned about material price risk this year and so must be our friends at the mint. If material prices for platinum were still $1300 per oz I would say the mint would go ahead and behave like they behaved between last year and this year. If the plat option sold out before the end of the year then bump the new years option striking run slightly, produce them in batches that are efficient and go on. If materials were still at $1300 this year about 5,000 2008 plat halves and quarters across all options would be a good first striking run guess. With materials this high the mint faces new problems.
1. If they buy the material and strike a full projected sales run of "x" number of legislative plats what happens if the price of platinum drops $300 an oz? If they hold the price when material drops the coins likely will not sell out and we may see a fairly low mintage coin and the mint gets hurt.
2. If they have a full initial run and the price of platinum should drop and the mint drops the price they should sell OK but the mint gets hurt.
3. If they buy and strike a smaller lot of material they will reduce the risk no matter what the material prices do. This could be in the cards.
I guess what I am saying is if the 2008 coins are struck in small lots and they sell very slowly due to high material prices from May to November the mint may not have as much inventory to sell into next year as they normally would. I have little doubt the mints typical demand models indicate they can sell 4000-5000 unc-w plats in all options and 6,000-8000 proof plats in all options next year if materials behave but will they do it? And if they don't will the market draw enough coins early in the year to warrant an additional striking run before its too late.
IMHO the 06 w fractionals have NOTHING to fear and the 04 fractional proofs will more than likely pull through too but materials will impact us and we need to be thinking about it.
Think plats in 2008 think price.
Think gold in 2008 think price and cannibalization among series.
Thanks Eric for the time, thought and effort you take to share these insights with the rest of us.
edit to add:
What do you think the Buff fractionals will do the the Frist Spouse coins? Those have problems of their own but won't the fractionals potentially have the opportunity to hurt them even more?
Collecting coins, medals and currency featuring "The Sower"
<< <i>Thanks Eric for the time, thought and effort you take to share these insights with the rest of us.
edit to add:
What do you think the Buff fractionals will do the the Frist Spouse coins? Those have problems of their own but won't the fractionals potentially have the opportunity to hurt them even more? >>
Yes I think the first spouse issues that do not have a liberty obverse in 2008 on have a very good chance of being much lower mintage in proof and MS than any of the 2007 Spouse issues did. Agreed.
Do you have any idea how much sales fractional Buffs will take away from fractional AGEs?
I read in CW last year (if I am not mistaken) that the mint was contemplating changing designs on the Buffs on a yearly basis once the fractionals came on board. If that holds true, then I could not think of a modern gold series out there that will not be in trouble by all this. I think that we will see lower mintages on modern gold series across the board...
I would think that the fractionals would slice into the gold eagles and cut there sales by at least 25% on the proof coins and probably more on the bullion coins.....
The price of gold will have an effect on the interest in these as well.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
At $1,800, a 4 coin set has a bullion value of $3,330.
The issue price for a "w" set in 2006 was $2,585.
In 2007 it was $2,770, then repriced to $2,977.
What will a 4 coin set cost in 2008? $3,600? more?
We should expect continued declines in mintages.
Small mintages are a good thing almost all of the time, but not when the coins are prohibitively expensive from the outset.
It's like that 100kg (220lb) C$1 million gold coin made by the Candian Mint. It doesn't matter if they only made one or two of them, there is no numismatic upside because the prohibitive acquisition cost eliminates demand.
<< <i>Do you have any idea how much sales fractional Buffs will take away from fractional AGEs?
I read in CW last year (if I am not mistaken) that the mint was contemplating changing designs on the Buffs on a yearly basis once the fractionals came on board. If that holds true, then I could not think of a modern gold series out there that will not be in trouble by all this. I think that we will see lower mintages on modern gold series across the board... >>
I have been speculating this ever since they first started minting the Buffalo. They have the ability and this will make for a really fun set if it happens. I'm definitely a buyer even if they stick with the buffalo design where the AGE sets I could never get into. It's just not a good design in low relief.
<< <i>$1800 IS SHOCKING! I AGREE THERE IS NO WAY THIS CAN'T HURT SALES AT SOME POINT. THE BIGGER COINS COULD BE IN TROUBLE.
Ericj96 >>
Saying the bigger coins are in trouble depends on how you look at it.
If you mean many are now subject to being sold for melt that is true but if that were to happen to any significant degree it would only make things more interesting going forward.
Heck I've already pulled the 1/2 oz. 2007 proofs to scrap. I'm looking hard at the 1 oz. 2007s and similar 2006 proofs.
<< <i>$1800 IS SHOCKING! I AGREE THERE IS NO WAY THIS CAN'T HURT SALES AT SOME POINT. THE BIGGER COINS COULD BE IN TROUBLE.
Ericj96 >>
Saying the bigger coins are in trouble depends on how you look at it.
If you mean many are now subject to being sold for melt that is true but if that were to happen to any significant degree it would only make things more interesting going forward.
Heck I've already pulled the 1/2 oz. 2007 proofs to scrap. I'm looking hard at the 1 oz. 2007s and similar 2006 proofs. >>
I read it to mean going forward the new Platinum coins in bigger sizes may be in trouble since they cost so much hinch lower mintages. Maybe the keys are yet to come all the way until they can no longer afford to make them due to cost and collectors/investors using their liquid monies to pay the bills.
<< <i>It is EXCELLENT to see these incredibly small mintages STAY small! Thanks for the update, Eric! >>
YES!
These numbers come from the end of the fiscal year 2007. Sept 29th if I remember correctly. The report is Final Audited. The coin Mags will be printing the data in the next few weeks. Sharon and Michael confirmed the report.
Single issue plats 2006-w $100...1079 $50.....588 $25.....687 $10.....1555 4 coin set 1989
Gold 2006-w 5708 + ann 4960 4984 10439 10204 four coin set
Damn $1800 an ounce..Time for the mint to retire patinum and switch to palladium. I am very relieved I completed buying my $10 backdate plats in '05 I am very annoyed that I didn't complete the $25 yet!! Shoulda done it in reverse...
<< <i> Single issue plats 2006-w $100...1079 $50.....588 $25.....687 $10.....1555 4 coin set 1989
Gold 2006-w 5708 + ann 4960 4984 10439 10204 four coin set >>
Is there a chance that the $50 plat will have a premium in the original box? I know mine has a huge premium because I store my 10th anniv in the same box in the sdb.
<< <i>So as far as raw 2006-W gold fractionals how do they look in a world with $900/oz. gold??
Keep them or take your profit from rise in bullion and move on??? >>
I let mine go except for 2 for the collection. I think its likely that many back date gold issues except for the 99-w, Jackie MS and Capital Visitor Center MS will be overtaken by lower mintage keys at some point in the next 3 years.
PS: Slang I don't know, I have a hard time modeling packaging values.
I've been tracking (reading included) this thread for few days. It's been very helpful for a novice coin's collector such as myself. I'd like to thank all "wise" people here - I had stopped making the poor transactions and started doing good (at least better) deals.
I got a quick question (hope, you don't mind) - I have a chance to aquire 2002-W $25 + 2003-W $25 Eagle Plats, both PF70 UCAM for about $1,300. Is it a good deal? I'm asking, 'cause according to PCGS "Prices for U.S. Coins" (linky here) they both worth less than $10 (same year and grade). How come?
Also, what is/are the "must have" book(s) for the "beginners"?
I apologize for my English - obviously, it is not my first language (hope you'd be able to understand me, though).
PLATINUM UNC 2006-W CHANGING REVERSE FOR ALL OPTIONS $100...3,068 $50.....2,577 $25.....2,676 $10.....3,544
Thank you very much Eric!!!
When these numbers hit the Red Book the 2006 Ws should start gaining value steadily! I am glad to see the final numbers didn't change. I guess your crystal ball really works!
I'm REALLY glad I was with this group the famous weekend that we all bought a ton of 2006 W. I went nuts that weekend thanks to Eric, had the coins all graded, and did well. Right now they are tucked away in my safety deposit box.
"I got a quick question (hope, you don't mind) - I have a chance to aquire 2002-W $25 + 2003-W $25 Eagle Plats, both PF70 UCAM for about $1,300. Is it a good deal? I'm asking, 'cause according to PCGS "Prices for U.S. Coins" (linky here) they both worth less than $10 (same year and grade). How come?
Marcin Wecome!
I will try to answer your questions
1. I have a chance to aquire 2002-W $25 + 2003-W $25 Eagle Plats, both PF70 UCAM for about $1,300. Is it a good deal? Answer: The price is a little high but still reasonable. Melt value for the coins is $900. Ungraded or graded proof 69 they are worth about $475 and $500 respectively. You say UCAM which indicates they are NGC PF70 coins. NGC 70 coins are in most cases worth about 1.1 to 1.2 times the base 69 prices. If they are PCGS-PR70 platinum eagles then they are a very good buy $1300 for the pair because PCGS proofs are graded harder than NGC proofs and carry higher premiums.
2. I'm asking, 'cause according to PCGS"Prices for U.S. Coins" they are both worth less than $10 (same year and grade). How come? Answer: The 70 population of the 2002 $25 proof platinum eagle is twice that of the 2002 $10 proof. Therefore it will carry a higher premium. The population of the 2003 $25 is about the same as the $10. I don't know why the tenth is showing higher prices than the quarter for 2003. I can say that the PCGS-PR70 prices shown in the listing are much higher than the market trading price in general and I would not put much faith in the PCGS price guide.
The question is why do you want the 2002 and 2003 quarters? Are you just starting a set of $25 quarters? Are you half way through a set of proof platinum quarters? If so then continue on until you complete them. Do you favor the proofs because they are lovely?
If you are just starting with changing reverse platinum eagles and you don't care if they are proof or regular uncirculated (mint state) then I suggest you consider working on the "w" uncirculated coins first. This is why:
Cost of set in 69 or raw for proof plat quarters-prices are approximate Year/mintage/price 97.....18726.....$475 98.....14203.....$475 99.....13524.....$475 00.....11995.....$475 01.....8839.......$485 02.....9299.......$475 03.....7044.......$500 04.....5193.......$1400 05.....6592.......$700 06.....7966.......$485 07.....7500*.....$475
Base price of the very lovely set is about $6500 NGC PF70 complete set price is about $6500x1.2= $7,800 You will need to spend depending on material price about $500/ year to stay current with every new issue.
The proof platinum eagles are a very nice set and I do recommend that you pick one up over time.
Now lets look at the unc "w burnished" platinum eagle $25 eagles with changing reverses.
06-W.....2577.......$900 07-W.....4200*.....$490
Base price of the set so far $1390. NGC MS70 complete set price is about $1500 PCGS MS70 complete set price is about $1800
The price to "catch up" on the back dates is very low on the mint state changing reverse platinum eagles and they are VERY VERY low mintage for a US coin. IMHO the 2006-w $25 legislative reverse platinum eagle with its 2,676 mintage is one of if not the finest US coin investments in existence provided the Mint does what it says it will and run the series until at least 2015.
You may want to jump on the two $25 changing reverse "w" platinum eagles while they are cheap because they are so young. Then go work on the back date proof platinum eagles. Do not pay high mark ups for NGC or PCGS 70 platinum eagles because the 70 populations are expanding so fast from "gradeflation" the price multiples over 69 coins are falling and unstable.
Hope this helps.
Ericj96
If you have not read this article already you may wish to:
<< <i>I'm REALLY glad I was with this group the famous weekend that we all bought a ton of 2006 W. I went nuts that weekend thanks to Eric, had the coins all graded, and did well. Right now they are tucked away in my safety deposit box. >>
I'm glad you guys got the coins instead of the big coin dealers. Three cheers for us little guys who are paying attention! Glad for you too Ren!
<< <i>I'm REALLY glad I was with this group the famous weekend that we all bought a ton of 2006 W. I went nuts that weekend thanks to Eric, had the coins all graded, and did well. Right now they are tucked away in my safety deposit box. >>
I'm glad you guys got the coins instead of the big coin dealers. Three cheers for us little guys who are paying attention! Glad for you too Ren! >>
No doubt, I bought 5 ac of property on the profits. An I still have 100G's in the safe. Thanks Eric, when the house is complete (we need another 06 tip) you can be the guest of honor
I'm glad you guys got the coins instead of the big coin dealers. Three cheers for us little guys who are paying attention! Glad for you too Ren! >>
My personal goal is to have the three coins: $25 2006-8 W unc encapsulated PCGS or NGC. Should be a nice set for the future. Most difficult decision is to show the reverse of obverse on the multi-coin holder.
first of all - thank you for such an informative (and quick) answer. Appreciate it. Back to the coins - yes, they're both NGC PF70. If I'm getting you right - it's not such a great deal at $1300? I'll let it go then. Gosh, I didn't know there is a significant difference between premiums caried by NGC and PCGS graded coins Yes, I know, there is million posts, thousend threads and hundreds articles talking about pros and cons of any of these two, but I thought that there is only a slight, if any, difference in the coins value. Thanks for pointing that out to me.
<< <i>The question is why do you want the 2002 and 2003 quarters? Are you just starting a set of $25 quarters? Are you half way through a set of proof platinum quarters? If so then continue on until you complete them. Do you favor the proofs because they are lovely? >>
Frankly I got inspired by NeoStar's set Really. It's an amazing set. Kudos. I already aquired a 2005 NGC PF70 quarter. Then I saw these (2002, 2003) two at what I thought "great" price, so I wanted to go for it (beginner's way of thinking).
<< <i>If you are just starting with changing reverse platinum eagles and you don't care if they are proof or regular uncirculated (mint state) then I suggest you consider working on the "w" uncirculated coins first. >>
Forgive me my ignorance, but what exactly the term "changing reverse" means? Back to your suggestion - you're right I could try to catch all raw/69 proof quarter plats and then we'll see. Here is what I've been able to get so far: 2007-w platinum NGC MS70 - $10, $25, $50. I'm not sure if I should go with an ounce coin as well? It happens I've already read the "The Case for Moderns..." and that's how I became an owner of 2001 proof platinum raw - $10, $25 and $50. Basically I'd like to complete this set. I have also got some of the 2006 and 2007 uncirculated (not W) plats (all in MS70). I left $100 coins out (too expensive) as for now. I've been checking on 2006-w uncirculated plats, but it's very hard to find the decent price (at least on the Bay). I'll keep trying, though
Last 3 questions: Question 1: is it worth/wise to invest only in quarters (proof plats) or other denominations are welcome and desireable as well? if yes, which ones? Question 2: where do you get all these mintage figures from? Question 3: repeat from my previous post: what's the must have book for the beginners in this field (title, author(s))?
As always, any advice, inputs and thoughts would be very appreciated.
Let me take a shot at answering some of your questions:
Question - what exactly the term "changing reverse" means?
Answer - This is my answer from an earlier thread:
Times change and so do trends. If we collected by mint mark is only because we learned to do so. If it came natural to us we would have been doing it before the albums came out (but we didn't). Now, going back to collecting trends, in 1997 the US Mint introduced us to a new concept in coin collecting: "Static Obverse and Changing Reverse". This is a way of collecting that establishes greater confidence on series collectors. Why? Because the coins don't change completely; yet, there's more changes on a coin than just a mint mark and a date. This type of collecting establishes a coin as a series (commemorative and artistic) while allowing beautiful designs to flow every year attracting more people.
In 1999, the Statehood Program started and it was a huge success from Day 1. Why?
1. They are affordable to collect. 2. Static obverse inspires confidence and establishes the coin as a series and not a stand alone coin. 3. Changing reverse allows for more artistic designs through the series.
Keep in mind that Platinum American Eagles are NOT very affordable (which is why they are such a great opportunity now). Like collecting by mint mark and date became such a huge success in the past after the early album collectors grew up and were able to afford higher graded coins, in time "Static Obverse and Changing Reverse" collectors will reach maturity and will speak with their wallets just like mint mark and date collectors have done for years now. When that happens you are going to have mature collectors (with deep wallets) that are willing to pay up for finer "Static Obverse and Changing Reverse" products (as that is the trend they grew up with).
Question - is it worth/wise to invest only in quarters (proof plats) or other denominations are welcome and desirable as well? if yes, which ones?
Answer - Marcin, any denomination is desirable. For example, take the $10 Plats:
1. They are affordable. 2. Very well collected (anybody that buys high end Silver or Gold can afford a $10 Plat). 3. The are as beautiful as any other denomination.
$25 Plats are a little bigger and feel very nice in hand. The design is easy to see without magnification and the coins have very low mintage compared to the $10s and the $100s.
$50 Plats - Hot, Hot, Hot!!! The lowest mintage of all Plats. Need I say more?
Question - what's the must have book for the beginners in this field (title, author(s))?
Answer - Nobody writes our story Marcin. We write it ourselves. Many of us on this board take time in a weekly basis to do research. Here's a list of posters in this board whose threads are usually very interesting and full of good information. These are people you will never go wrong with:
ericj96, CladKing, wondercoins, 7over8, coinboy, renman95, EricSan, BECOKA, jmski52, Griv, TheRaven, Kiyote, CoinHog, NYCounsel, ttown, clackamas (sorry if I miss anybody!!!)
These are people who are actively involved and have something to share with everybody else here.
If you have already started on the proof platinum eagle quarters I would continue them. They are a fantastic set. If you have started a NGC-70 set then keep going with NGC-70 but do not pay more than 1.2 times a raw or 69 price. In proof I collect by NGC-70. In "w" changing reverse plats I collect by PCGS-70. but again I pay very little premium for them.
You'll be pleased to know that you've stumbled on the best possible place to learn about Plats. Until I dropped by and got acquainted with this board (and particularly this thread), I was doing very well by doing all of my own market analysis and running half-blind. Now, my judgement on Plats is more finely-tuned than I could have ever hoped, thanks to all of the contributors here. You will not find a better place to get good information and a cogent, but diverse spectrum of opinions regarding platinum. Everyone has insight and something to contribute.
It's become increasingly clear that as platinum continues to scorch its way to $2,000.00/oz., all of the Plat Series and all of the denominations may very well undergo a radical change in populations. It is my opinion that some platinum will be finding its way back into industrial uses, simply due to the lure of high prices. It's happened with silver in the past, and this situation appears to be no different, IMO.
The problem is - what can a Plat collector do about it? The Mint is producing varieties and other precious metal products so quickly and prices have risen so fast that any fresh funds are depleted before you can scarcely leave the starting gate. Keeping perspective is very key to staying in the game. As ericj96 and Neo have mentioned to you, collecting habits are being altered in favor of short series with changing (but very artistically-appealing) reverse designs. The current "branches of government" series looks like a scarce set any way you slice it, and this is good because it's early enough that anyone can still "get in on the ground floor" so to speak.
Where does keeping your perspective come in? As ericj96 mentioned to you:
The price to "catch up" on the back dates is very low on the mint state changing reverse platinum eagles and they are VERY VERY low mintage for a US coin. IMHO the 2006-w $25 legislative reverse platinum eagle with its 2,676 mintage is one of if not the finest US coin investments in existence
As you review some of the older posts in this thread, you will note that eric has listed the lowest mintage 20th Century coins in declining order from lowest mintage to highest. Ultimately, low mintage data is the prism through which you should keep your perspective in focus. Eric's suggestion concerning the 2006-W legislative reverse burnished coin is based upon historical perspective.
Having said that, if you review the mintages of the Platinum Eagle Series from the program's inception, you will note the declining trend. I feel that the trend is being magnified by rising platinum prices and uncontrolled Mint offerings. It might well be that 2008 becomes the year that collectors and speculators simply cannot keep up with their past purchases of Plats. If that happens, look out for even lower mintages than the 2006-Ws.
On the other hand, even those higher mintage Proofs that you are collecting now aren't safe from attrition. As the price of platinum goes higher, most of the older issues are worth as much "dead" as "alive." When you can realize a 100% profit in 3 years based on the melt value, there really is no numismatic premium left, nor does there need to be - if you need some money and are selling.
When that type of selling occurs, there is no way to know the ultimate destination for these older Plats. If these Plats are being diverted into industrial uses, there might be some real "sleepers" amongst the higher mintage Proofs that you are collecting as well. Wouldn't it be ironic if the highest mintage coins had the lowest survival rate and became impossible to obtain?
So - keep your perspective. The best way to do that is to visit here, and contribute to the knowledge base when you can.
One last thing, even though I believe that platinum has a long way to go on the upside, remember that this price rise has been fast and that from this point on, there will be significant volatility. That means = risky, by definition. Longterm collectors will always have an advantage in this type of environment, because they are not looking to make a quick buck. For Plats, I believe that the best years (and lowest mintages) are yet to come. Just one man's opinion here.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I have to agree with everything jmkski just said. The huge run-up in Pt has also got me thinking about something few people here ever talk about, to wit...
Does anyone here collect regular plat bullion issues?
I do not, but have picked up a couple of low-mintage issues, such as the 2007 1/10 ounce and 2006 1/2-ounce. I also have a 1998 1/2-ounce, which is a very high mintage. With the high price of platinum, though, I join others in wondering just how many of these are going to be saved at all. Does anyone know where the vast majority of platinum bullion coins are? Are they tucked away in vaults by the thousands for IRAs, etc...? If so, it doesn't seem likely they'll be finding their way to the smelter. If, on the other hand, they are in safe deposit boxes and cupboards and closets, I can see quite a lot of them getting turned into catalytic converters.
On a related topic, does it even matter? If, 20 or 50 years from now, there are only 1,000 1998 1/2-ounce bullion plats left, will anyone really care? I know what the classics guys will say, but what do YOU say? Will these EVER be collectable, even with almost no coins surviving?
Does anyone here collect regular plat bullion issues?
Sometimes.
Does anyone know where the vast majority of platinum bullion coins are?
No.
it doesn't seem likely they'll be finding their way to the smelter.
Supply and demand will make it happen. If the outages in SA continue, the price will lure them out into the open.
On a related topic, does it even matter?
Yes, it does - very much so.
If, 20 or 50 years from now, there are only 1,000 1998 1/2-ounce bullion plats left, will anyone really care? I know what the classics guys will say, but what do YOU say? Will these EVER be collectable, even with almost no coins surviving?
Firstly, they will always be platinum. Secondly, they may become discontinued at some point due to increasing prices and decreasing supplies. We can only see the future "through the glass, darkly."
The ultimate winners will be the coins that reside in collections for which there are no equals, much like the classic series that are so revered today.
And that's not speculation.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Funny that this conversation is going in a number of directions that I have been thinking about lately on my own!
<< <i>Question - what's the must have book for the beginners in this field (title, author(s))? >>
I was thinking about this just the other night and wondering if enough information has been accumulated in this thread for EricJ to publish a book about the platinum series. No such reference yet exists and the series has just past the 10-year mark. Ok, its probably too soon, but its still a fun thought.
Grits, I have been thinking about the non-w uncirculated plats, too. My primary though was to pick up a 2007 dated $50 just to show the different modes of production that year. Its the only year that we have 4 separate production types in the platinum series: proof, rev proof, w-unc, and "plain" unc. No, the 2007 non-w would not be a low mintage record holder, but I think its interesting just to "round out" the year. I think that these non-w issues will be discontinued in the future as well and eventually may be "forgotten about." What this means for future collector interest is unclear to me. There seem to be a number of "unloved" low mintage proofs from the 1800s, but I really enjoy the platinum series. Its really a shame that you can't buy the $50 proofs for $600 anymore... I still need a few of the back dates. For the first time in history, I followed the advice of those much wiser than myself and began purchasing the proofs in order of increasing mintages (first the 2004, then 2005, 2003, 2001, etc).
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
Platinum prices have incresed so much because of the power problems in South Africa which supplies most of the world's platinum. The last I heard they are up and down and about 80% power. If and when they get the issue fixed expect Platinum to have a huge drop. All this means if your an investor keep a close eye because it will be time to sell in the next year IMO. If your a colletor enjoy and don't worry.
The problem is not supposed to be resolved until 2012. It would not have run up so much if this was just a temprorary problem. This will take years to fix.
EricSan, I've been doing the same thing with the $50 proofs, though I am still missing the 2001, 2000, and 1997. Great idea to get all varieties of the 2007. Will make for a very nice set. It's really going to be fun to see how this plays out. A dramatic drop in platinum (whenever it happens) will make everything even more interesting.
Raven, if we add Dec. 2007 (which are probably 2008 dates, from what I gather) sales plus January 2008 sales, 2008 bullion plat totals are:
1/10 4,000 1/4 0 1/2 200 1 1100
In other words, LOW, really low. Maybe, it IS just possible this could be the last year for these coins???
<< <i>The problem is not supposed to be resolved until 2012. It would not have run up so much if this was just a temprorary problem. This will take years to fix. >>
That's to get at 100% at it's current rate. The mining companies stock is hurting because of the amount they can mine. They are going "Green" to conserve energy as we speak to address part of the issue. The 2012 was a data I've read and that's only if you let the goverment solve the problem. The mining companies will spend some money to get back to full production and use other means as well as pursure giving money to the goverment to expand the power grid. Who knows how long it will be but where there's big bucks being lost I think they'll be on there way to find a solution sooner rather than latter for this affects the goverment revenues too you know.
With Plat prices over 1800 melt, the reverse proof set may actually sell out. What do you think? It was 1840 for a while this AM, may not hold there, but that is just a data point reflective of the price rise.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
I was wondering if that could be it for the 1/10 oz coins, I would imagine the other ones would sell a bit more as there are a few collectors of these and the oz coins would be nabbed by a few investors.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
Comments
The 1/4 is not only more affordable now but also, if the metals keep on rising, it will remain more affordable longterm which may help its collector base growth. I personally believe that the 1/2 will do well as well...
I am glad back in 2001 that I did not go hog wild with the bigger coins and start those.....
Ericj96
Unless the mint has made a radical departure from its long standing striking and packaging relationships between the denominations and 4 coin sets the unc plat halves and quarters should die off very soon.
A little over 4200 plus or minus 250 coins is what the math is telling us for the half and quarter. Guys lets not let our wonderful good fortune last year bias our views. These coins are going to be the 5th and 6th rarest design and denomination based Unc and proof type coins issued since 1915. They are not going to spike as hard out of the box as the 2006 changing reverse plats did but they are MEGA COINS in their own right and will take their place among the greatest modern issues within the next ten years unless something serious happens to the economy. A little patience will be needed this time........and I know thats a commodity in short supply for the flippers! :-)
Wishing you guys well,
Ericj96
Added now.....The 4 coin set is in the mints bone yard listings. The half went up and came back down almost instantly because the returns in inventory were few. The quarters are few but I still like the old ratios and that brings the quarters in at 4200 plus or minus 250 coins.
GOLD: Price and Cannibalization
The fractional buffalos that I have been fearing are coming to pass this year. The one oz buff gold sucked so much money out of the market last time that the Gold Eagles with the Saint obverse had their sales crash for months....even denominations that do not compete directly got hit. The numbers say it all: In 2004 you could buy a $25 mint state eagle from a dealer or a proof $25 eagle from the mint. Two coins and $600 later you were through with all the gold halves. Now proof eagle, bullion eagle, unc-w eagle, 8 spouses, proof buff, and unc buff exist so we are looking at 13 gold halves at $6500. Look out falling mintages and back date key values relative to melt when they become king of nothing.
The mint did what it said it would and is now offering for sale the rest of the 2007-w gold. About 11,000 halves and quarters have sold. If they sell for a while and sell out in the 15,000+ range like the 06-w they will be worth melt plus a fraction for years. ALL back KEY date eagles are in trouble except for maybe the 99-w gold eagles. Heaven help the long term value of the 1991 half at $1000 bucks each when they start coming out of baby boomer 401k programs like Universal coin by the roll and rank 5th place instead of first in series.
We are entering a period where SO much modern gold of competing designs is being dumped on the market at the same time at very high prices that new keys are going to show up everywhere. Old so called key dates with mintages well over 10,000 are going to be in a world of hurt.
My advice to those who like gold is to sit back save your money and pick up gold issues with mintages in the 8,000 to 10,000 range over the coming months and years. We must learn to become very picky because we can't afford it all. Do focus on coins that have strong and obvious unifying design elements because we are moving into an era of design confusion the likes of we have never seen before. I think the coin market is going to be looking for order in the midst of the Chaos at some point. Do not let the high material prices and too many issues discourage you because opportunity knocks at our door.
The mint has over issued before and cut back. I think this will happen again at some point. In 2010 the Gold eagle Saint will have run for 25 years and will no longer be protected from change. I would not be shocked if the gold eagles program is the one that gets axed at that time. IF thats true and it takes place after more 3 years of very low mintage "w" mint mark gold the set will be in good shape. A closed gold series with half a dozen very low mintage mint marked coins and massive common date populations has the genetics to be impressive.
We don't know whats going to give but something must.
Platinum: Its all about price.
The mint has come out with a 1,000 oz minimum order requirement for the big dealers that buy the bullion with the constant eagle over the sun design. Guys thats a minimum order of about 1.8 million dollars with no return option and they have to compete with the changing reverse Unc-w plats with a thirty day return option. Some of the big buyers that have never failed to buy and carry the bullion issues are saying they have "NO INTEREST! IN 2008". 08 and 09 sales are likely to be so much lower than 2007 platinum bullion sales its not even funny. What if they sell say very roughly 3,000 platinum eagle bullion quarters will you want to buy them? The contrarian in me wants to think about it until I consider that the MS set carries the 06-w and 07-w with mintages in the 2,500 to 4,500 range and the bullion coin has zero type rarity or looks to help it out. To be a great coin the eagle over the sun set is going to need a mintage sub 3,000 to have a chance.
If you graph total platinum sales in oz and coins you will see that the only thing that turned around the endless drop in unit sales over the last 10 years is the changing reverse proofs and "w" issues and the mint is aware of this. The mint is also aware that the "w" plats are cannibalizing bullion sales.
If mintages are low this year and flippers jump in on a 3,000 issue coin and find that the eagle over the sun coins spike for 3 months then crash back to melt and stays there they may not be so quick to do it again the following year. High cost and no sales makes for a prime candidate to get pulled from the mints offerings at some point and they more than likely will not give us lots of notice. If the bullion coins just don't sell and the mint closes the program for the year or for good. THEN we may have something. My point is the static reverse plats situation is going to get allot worse soon.
I have been trying to figure out what effect if any the higher prices will have on the mint striking run behavior this year. All of us are concerned about material price risk this year and so must be our friends at the mint. If material prices for platinum were still $1300 per oz I would say the mint would go ahead and behave like they behaved between last year and this year. If the plat option sold out before the end of the year then bump the new years option striking run slightly, produce them in batches that are efficient and go on. If materials were still at $1300 this year about 5,000 2008 plat halves and quarters across all options would be a good first striking run guess. With materials this high the mint faces new problems.
1. If they buy the material and strike a full projected sales run of "x" number of legislative plats what happens if the price of platinum drops $300 an oz? If they hold the price when material drops the coins likely will not sell out and we may see a fairly low mintage coin and the mint gets hurt.
2. If they have a full initial run and the price of platinum should drop and the mint drops the price they should sell OK but the mint gets hurt.
3. If they buy and strike a smaller lot of material they will reduce the risk no matter what the material prices do. This could be in the cards.
I guess what I am saying is if the 2008 coins are struck in small lots and they sell very slowly due to high material prices from May to November the mint may not have as much inventory to sell into next year as they normally would. I have little doubt the mints typical demand models indicate they can sell 4000-5000 unc-w plats in all options and 6,000-8000 proof plats in all options next year if materials behave but will they do it? And if they don't will the market draw enough coins early in the year to warrant an additional striking run before its too late.
IMHO the 06 w fractionals have NOTHING to fear and the 04 fractional proofs will more than likely pull through too but materials will impact us and we need to be thinking about it.
Think plats in 2008 think price.
Think gold in 2008 think price and cannibalization among series.
Wishing I knew the answers to these question.
Ericj96
In my opinion they can't keep running Buffalo & Gold Eagle sales at the same time, like you said it is to much.....
If they want to sell the material, just presell the stuff and see what sells before you produce the coins.....
edit to add:
What do you think the Buff fractionals will do the the Frist Spouse coins? Those have problems of their own but won't the fractionals potentially have the opportunity to hurt them even more?
<< <i>Thanks Eric for the time, thought and effort you take to share these insights with the rest of us.
edit to add:
What do you think the Buff fractionals will do the the Frist Spouse coins? Those have problems of their own but won't the fractionals potentially have the opportunity to hurt them even more? >>
Yes I think the first spouse issues that do not have a liberty obverse in 2008 on have a very good chance of being much lower mintage in proof and MS than any of the 2007 Spouse issues did. Agreed.
Ericj96
I read in CW last year (if I am not mistaken) that the mint was contemplating changing designs on the Buffs on a yearly basis once the fractionals came on board. If that holds true, then I could not think of a modern gold series out there that will not be in trouble by all this. I think that we will see lower mintages on modern gold series across the board...
The price of gold will have an effect on the interest in these as well.....
At $1,800, a 4 coin set has a bullion value of $3,330.
The issue price for a "w" set in 2006 was $2,585.
In 2007 it was $2,770, then repriced to $2,977.
What will a 4 coin set cost in 2008? $3,600? more?
We should expect continued declines in mintages.
Small mintages are a good thing almost all of the time, but not when the coins are prohibitively expensive from the outset.
It's like that 100kg (220lb) C$1 million gold coin made by the Candian Mint. It doesn't matter if they only made one or two of them, there is no numismatic upside because the prohibitive acquisition cost eliminates demand.
<< <i>Do you have any idea how much sales fractional Buffs will take away from fractional AGEs?
I read in CW last year (if I am not mistaken) that the mint was contemplating changing designs on the Buffs on a yearly basis once the fractionals came on board. If that holds true, then I could not think of a modern gold series out there that will not be in trouble by all this. I think that we will see lower mintages on modern gold series across the board... >>
I have been speculating this ever since they first started minting the Buffalo. They have the ability and this will make for a really fun set if it happens. I'm definitely a buyer even if they stick with the buffalo design where the AGE sets I could never get into. It's just not a good design in low relief.
Ericj96
This is good deal
<< <i>$1800 IS SHOCKING! I AGREE THERE IS NO WAY THIS CAN'T HURT SALES AT SOME POINT. THE BIGGER COINS COULD BE IN TROUBLE.
Ericj96 >>
Saying the bigger coins are in trouble depends on how you look at it.
If you mean many are now subject to being sold for melt that is true but if that were to happen to any significant degree it would only make things more interesting going forward.
Heck I've already pulled the 1/2 oz. 2007 proofs to scrap.
I'm looking hard at the 1 oz. 2007s and similar 2006 proofs.
<< <i>
<< <i>$1800 IS SHOCKING! I AGREE THERE IS NO WAY THIS CAN'T HURT SALES AT SOME POINT. THE BIGGER COINS COULD BE IN TROUBLE.
Ericj96 >>
Saying the bigger coins are in trouble depends on how you look at it.
If you mean many are now subject to being sold for melt that is true but if that were to happen to any significant degree it would only make things more interesting going forward.
Heck I've already pulled the 1/2 oz. 2007 proofs to scrap.
I'm looking hard at the 1 oz. 2007s and similar 2006 proofs. >>
I read it to mean going forward the new Platinum coins in bigger sizes may be in trouble since they cost so much hinch lower mintages. Maybe the keys are yet to come all the way until they can no longer afford to make them due to cost and collectors/investors using their liquid monies to pay the bills.
Ren
GOLD UNC 2006-W TOTALS FOR ALL OPTIONS
$50...45,912
$25...15,164
$10...15,188
$5.....20,643
PLATINUM UNC 2006-W CHANGING REVERSE FOR ALL OPTIONS
$100...3,068
$50.....2,577
$25.....2,676
$10.....3,544
Notice the final numbers are the same numbers for the plats that came out in the corrective report from July 2007.
<< <i>It is EXCELLENT to see these incredibly small mintages STAY small! Thanks for the update, Eric! >>
YES!
These numbers come from the end of the fiscal year 2007. Sept 29th if I remember correctly. The report is Final Audited. The coin Mags will be printing the data in the next few weeks. Sharon and Michael confirmed the report.
Single issue plats 2006-w
$100...1079
$50.....588
$25.....687
$10.....1555
4 coin set 1989
Gold 2006-w
5708 + ann
4960
4984
10439
10204 four coin set
Keep them or take your profit from rise in bullion and move on???
I am very relieved I completed buying my $10 backdate plats in '05
I am very annoyed that I didn't complete the $25 yet!! Shoulda done it in reverse...
<< <i>
<< <i>
Single issue plats 2006-w
$100...1079
$50.....588
$25.....687
$10.....1555
4 coin set 1989
Gold 2006-w
5708 + ann
4960
4984
10439
10204 four coin set >>
Is there a chance that the $50 plat will have a premium in the original box? I know mine has a huge premium because I store my 10th anniv in the same box in the sdb.
<< <i>So as far as raw 2006-W gold fractionals how do they look in a world with $900/oz. gold??
Keep them or take your profit from rise in bullion and move on??? >>
I let mine go except for 2 for the collection. I think its likely that many back date gold issues except for the 99-w, Jackie MS and Capital Visitor Center MS will be overtaken by lower mintage keys at some point in the next 3 years.
PS: Slang I don't know, I have a hard time modeling packaging values.
I'm fresh here, so be kind, pretty please
I've been tracking (reading included) this thread for few days. It's been very helpful for a novice coin's collector such as myself.
I'd like to thank all "wise" people here - I had stopped making the poor transactions and started doing good (at least better) deals.
I got a quick question (hope, you don't mind) - I have a chance to aquire 2002-W $25 + 2003-W $25 Eagle Plats, both PF70 UCAM for about $1,300. Is it a good deal?
I'm asking, 'cause according to PCGS "Prices for U.S. Coins" (linky here) they both worth less than $10 (same year and grade). How come?
Also, what is/are the "must have" book(s) for the "beginners"?
I apologize for my English - obviously, it is not my first language (hope you'd be able to understand me, though).
Best,
Marcin.
$100...3,068
$50.....2,577
$25.....2,676
$10.....3,544
Thank you very much Eric!!!
When these numbers hit the Red Book the 2006 Ws should start gaining value steadily! I am glad to see the final numbers didn't change. I guess your crystal ball really works!
Ren
Marcin Wecome!
I will try to answer your questions
1. I have a chance to aquire 2002-W $25 + 2003-W $25 Eagle Plats, both PF70 UCAM for about $1,300. Is it a good deal?
Answer: The price is a little high but still reasonable. Melt value for the coins is $900. Ungraded or graded proof 69 they are worth about $475 and $500 respectively. You say UCAM which indicates they are NGC PF70 coins. NGC 70 coins are in most cases worth about 1.1 to 1.2 times the base 69 prices. If they are PCGS-PR70 platinum eagles then they are a very good buy $1300 for the pair because PCGS proofs are graded harder than NGC proofs and carry higher premiums.
2. I'm asking, 'cause according to PCGS"Prices for U.S. Coins" they are both worth less than $10 (same year and grade). How come?
Answer: The 70 population of the 2002 $25 proof platinum eagle is twice that of the 2002 $10 proof. Therefore it will carry a higher premium.
The population of the 2003 $25 is about the same as the $10. I don't know why the tenth is showing higher prices than the quarter for 2003. I can say that the PCGS-PR70 prices shown in the listing are much higher than the market trading price in general and I would not put much faith in the PCGS price guide.
The question is why do you want the 2002 and 2003 quarters? Are you just starting a set of $25 quarters? Are you half way through a set of proof platinum quarters? If so then continue on until you complete them. Do you favor the proofs because they are lovely?
If you are just starting with changing reverse platinum eagles and you don't care if they are proof or regular uncirculated (mint state) then I suggest you consider working on the "w" uncirculated coins first. This is why:
Cost of set in 69 or raw for proof plat quarters-prices are approximate
Year/mintage/price
97.....18726.....$475
98.....14203.....$475
99.....13524.....$475
00.....11995.....$475
01.....8839.......$485
02.....9299.......$475
03.....7044.......$500
04.....5193.......$1400
05.....6592.......$700
06.....7966.......$485
07.....7500*.....$475
Base price of the very lovely set is about $6500
NGC PF70 complete set price is about $6500x1.2= $7,800
You will need to spend depending on material price about $500/ year to stay current with every new issue.
The proof platinum eagles are a very nice set and I do recommend that you pick one up over time.
Now lets look at the unc "w burnished" platinum eagle $25 eagles with changing reverses.
06-W.....2577.......$900
07-W.....4200*.....$490
Base price of the set so far $1390.
NGC MS70 complete set price is about $1500
PCGS MS70 complete set price is about $1800
The price to "catch up" on the back dates is very low on the mint state changing reverse platinum eagles and they are VERY VERY low mintage for a US coin. IMHO the 2006-w $25 legislative reverse platinum eagle with its 2,676 mintage is one of if not the finest US coin investments in existence provided the Mint does what it says it will and run the series until at least 2015.
You may want to jump on the two $25 changing reverse "w" platinum eagles while they are cheap because they are so young. Then go work on the back date proof platinum eagles. Do not pay high mark ups for NGC or PCGS 70 platinum eagles because the 70 populations are expanding so fast from "gradeflation" the price multiples over 69 coins are falling and unstable.
Hope this helps.
Ericj96
If you have not read this article already you may wish to:
The Case For Moderns...Its 3 years old and a little out of date but it may help.
<< <i>I'm REALLY glad I was with this group the famous weekend that we all bought a ton of 2006 W. I went nuts that weekend thanks to Eric, had the coins all graded, and did well. Right now they are tucked away in my safety deposit box. >>
I'm glad you guys got the coins instead of the big coin dealers. Three cheers for us little guys who are paying attention!
Glad for you too Ren!
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm REALLY glad I was with this group the famous weekend that we all bought a ton of 2006 W. I went nuts that weekend thanks to Eric, had the coins all graded, and did well. Right now they are tucked away in my safety deposit box. >>
I'm glad you guys got the coins instead of the big coin dealers. Three cheers for us little guys who are paying attention!
Glad for you too Ren! >>
No doubt, I bought 5 ac of property on the profits. An I still have 100G's in the safe. Thanks Eric, when the house is complete (we need another 06 tip) you can be the guest of honor
Ericj96
I'm glad you guys got the coins instead of the big coin dealers. Three cheers for us little guys who are paying attention!
Glad for you too Ren! >>
My personal goal is to have the three coins: $25 2006-8 W unc encapsulated PCGS or NGC. Should be a nice set for the future. Most difficult decision is to show the reverse of obverse on the multi-coin holder.
Ren
first of all - thank you for such an informative (and quick) answer. Appreciate it.
Back to the coins - yes, they're both NGC PF70. If I'm getting you right - it's not such a great deal at $1300? I'll let it go then.
Gosh, I didn't know there is a significant difference between premiums caried by NGC and PCGS graded coins
<< <i>The question is why do you want the 2002 and 2003 quarters? Are you just starting a set of $25 quarters? Are you half way through a set of proof platinum quarters? If so then continue on until you complete them. Do you favor the proofs because they are lovely? >>
Frankly I got inspired by NeoStar's set
I already aquired a 2005 NGC PF70 quarter. Then I saw these (2002, 2003) two at what I thought "great" price, so I wanted to go for it (beginner's way of thinking).
<< <i>If you are just starting with changing reverse platinum eagles and you don't care if they are proof or regular uncirculated (mint state) then I suggest you consider working on the "w" uncirculated coins first. >>
Forgive me my ignorance, but what exactly the term "changing reverse" means?
Back to your suggestion - you're right I could try to catch all raw/69 proof quarter plats and then we'll see.
Here is what I've been able to get so far:
2007-w platinum NGC MS70 - $10, $25, $50. I'm not sure if I should go with an ounce coin as well?
It happens I've already read the "The Case for Moderns..." and that's how I became an owner of 2001 proof platinum raw - $10, $25 and $50. Basically I'd like to complete this set.
I have also got some of the 2006 and 2007 uncirculated (not W) plats (all in MS70). I left $100 coins out (too expensive) as for now.
I've been checking on 2006-w uncirculated plats, but it's very hard to find the decent price (at least on the Bay). I'll keep trying, though
Last 3 questions:
Question 1: is it worth/wise to invest only in quarters (proof plats) or other denominations are welcome and desireable as well? if yes, which ones?
Question 2: where do you get all these mintage figures from?
Question 3: repeat from my previous post: what's the must have book for the beginners in this field (title, author(s))?
As always, any advice, inputs and thoughts would be very appreciated.
Regards,
Marcin.
Hi! Welcome to the boards!!!
Thank you very much for the compliment on my set!
Let me take a shot at answering some of your questions:
Question - what exactly the term "changing reverse" means?
Answer - This is my answer from an earlier thread:
Times change and so do trends. If we collected by mint mark is only because we learned to do so. If it came natural to us we would have been doing it before the albums came out (but we didn't). Now, going back to collecting trends, in 1997 the US Mint introduced us to a new concept in coin collecting: "Static Obverse and Changing Reverse". This is a way of collecting that establishes greater confidence on series collectors. Why? Because the coins don't change completely; yet, there's more changes on a coin than just a mint mark and a date. This type of collecting establishes a coin as a series (commemorative and artistic) while allowing beautiful designs to flow every year attracting more people.
In 1999, the Statehood Program started and it was a huge success from Day 1. Why?
1. They are affordable to collect.
2. Static obverse inspires confidence and establishes the coin as a series and not a stand alone coin.
3. Changing reverse allows for more artistic designs through the series.
Keep in mind that Platinum American Eagles are NOT very affordable (which is why they are such a great opportunity now). Like collecting by mint mark and date became such a huge success in the past after the early album collectors grew up and were able to afford higher graded coins, in time "Static Obverse and Changing Reverse" collectors will reach maturity and will speak with their wallets just like mint mark and date collectors have done for years now. When that happens you are going to have mature collectors (with deep wallets) that are willing to pay up for finer "Static Obverse and Changing Reverse" products (as that is the trend they grew up with).
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Question - is it worth/wise to invest only in quarters (proof plats) or other denominations are welcome and desirable as well? if yes, which ones?
Answer - Marcin, any denomination is desirable. For example, take the $10 Plats:
1. They are affordable.
2. Very well collected (anybody that buys high end Silver or Gold can afford a $10 Plat).
3. The are as beautiful as any other denomination.
$25 Plats are a little bigger and feel very nice in hand. The design is easy to see without magnification and the coins have very low mintage compared to the $10s and the $100s.
$50 Plats - Hot, Hot, Hot!!! The lowest mintage of all Plats. Need I say more?
$100 Plats - Massive and beautiful!
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Question - where do you get all these mintage figures from?
Answer - Mintage figures are usually available from the Mint; although, Eric usually has access to that information before anybody else does.
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Question - what's the must have book for the beginners in this field (title, author(s))?
Answer - Nobody writes our story Marcin. We write it ourselves. Many of us on this board take time in a weekly basis to do research. Here's a list of posters in this board whose threads are usually very interesting and full of good information. These are people you will never go wrong with:
ericj96, CladKing, wondercoins, 7over8, coinboy, renman95, EricSan, BECOKA, jmski52, Griv, TheRaven, Kiyote, CoinHog, NYCounsel, ttown, clackamas (sorry if I miss anybody!!!)
These are people who are actively involved and have something to share with everybody else here.
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Stay with us for the latest stats and information!
Edited to remove spelling horrors!
Will comment more later.
What ben said was correct.
Ericj96
You'll be pleased to know that you've stumbled on the best possible place to learn about Plats. Until I dropped by and got acquainted with this board (and particularly this thread), I was doing very well by doing all of my own market analysis and running half-blind. Now, my judgement on Plats is more finely-tuned than I could have ever hoped, thanks to all of the contributors here. You will not find a better place to get good information and a cogent, but diverse spectrum of opinions regarding platinum. Everyone has insight and something to contribute.
It's become increasingly clear that as platinum continues to scorch its way to $2,000.00/oz., all of the Plat Series and all of the denominations may very well undergo a radical change in populations. It is my opinion that some platinum will be finding its way back into industrial uses, simply due to the lure of high prices. It's happened with silver in the past, and this situation appears to be no different, IMO.
The problem is - what can a Plat collector do about it? The Mint is producing varieties and other precious metal products so quickly and prices have risen so fast that any fresh funds are depleted before you can scarcely leave the starting gate. Keeping perspective is very key to staying in the game. As ericj96 and Neo have mentioned to you, collecting habits are being altered in favor of short series with changing (but very artistically-appealing) reverse designs. The current "branches of government" series looks like a scarce set any way you slice it, and this is good because it's early enough that anyone can still "get in on the ground floor" so to speak.
Where does keeping your perspective come in? As ericj96 mentioned to you:
The price to "catch up" on the back dates is very low on the mint state changing reverse platinum eagles and they are VERY VERY low mintage for a US coin. IMHO the 2006-w $25 legislative reverse platinum eagle with its 2,676 mintage is one of if not the finest US coin investments in existence
As you review some of the older posts in this thread, you will note that eric has listed the lowest mintage 20th Century coins in declining order from lowest mintage to highest. Ultimately, low mintage data is the prism through which you should keep your perspective in focus. Eric's suggestion concerning the 2006-W legislative reverse burnished coin is based upon historical perspective.
Having said that, if you review the mintages of the Platinum Eagle Series from the program's inception, you will note the declining trend. I feel that the trend is being magnified by rising platinum prices and uncontrolled Mint offerings. It might well be that 2008 becomes the year that collectors and speculators simply cannot keep up with their past purchases of Plats. If that happens, look out for even lower mintages than the 2006-Ws.
On the other hand, even those higher mintage Proofs that you are collecting now aren't safe from attrition. As the price of platinum goes higher, most of the older issues are worth as much "dead" as "alive." When you can realize a 100% profit in 3 years based on the melt value, there really is no numismatic premium left, nor does there need to be - if you need some money and are selling.
When that type of selling occurs, there is no way to know the ultimate destination for these older Plats. If these Plats are being diverted into industrial uses, there might be some real "sleepers" amongst the higher mintage Proofs that you are collecting as well. Wouldn't it be ironic if the highest mintage coins had the lowest survival rate and became impossible to obtain?
So - keep your perspective. The best way to do that is to visit here, and contribute to the knowledge base when you can.
One last thing, even though I believe that platinum has a long way to go on the upside, remember that this price rise has been fast and that from this point on, there will be significant volatility. That means = risky, by definition. Longterm collectors will always have an advantage in this type of environment, because they are not looking to make a quick buck. For Plats, I believe that the best years (and lowest mintages) are yet to come. Just one man's opinion here.
I knew it would happen.
Does anyone here collect regular plat bullion issues?
I do not, but have picked up a couple of low-mintage issues, such as the 2007 1/10 ounce and 2006 1/2-ounce. I also have a 1998 1/2-ounce, which is a very high mintage. With the high price of platinum, though, I join others in wondering just how many of these are going to be saved at all. Does anyone know where the vast majority of platinum bullion coins are? Are they tucked away in vaults by the thousands for IRAs, etc...? If so, it doesn't seem likely they'll be finding their way to the smelter. If, on the other hand, they are in safe deposit boxes and cupboards and closets, I can see quite a lot of them getting turned into catalytic converters.
On a related topic, does it even matter? If, 20 or 50 years from now, there are only 1,000 1998 1/2-ounce bullion plats left, will anyone really care? I know what the classics guys will say, but what do YOU say? Will these EVER be collectable, even with almost no coins surviving?
Would love to hear your avid speculation...
Sometimes.
Does anyone know where the vast majority of platinum bullion coins are?
No.
it doesn't seem likely they'll be finding their way to the smelter.
Supply and demand will make it happen. If the outages in SA continue, the price will lure them out into the open.
On a related topic, does it even matter?
Yes, it does - very much so.
If, 20 or 50 years from now, there are only 1,000 1998 1/2-ounce bullion plats left, will anyone really care? I know what the classics guys will say, but what do YOU say? Will these EVER be collectable, even with almost no coins surviving?
Firstly, they will always be platinum. Secondly, they may become discontinued at some point due to increasing prices and decreasing supplies. We can only see the future "through the glass, darkly."
The ultimate winners will be the coins that reside in collections for which there are no equals, much like the classic series that are so revered today.
And that's not speculation.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Question - what's the must have book for the beginners in this field (title, author(s))? >>
I was thinking about this just the other night and wondering if enough information has been accumulated in this thread for EricJ to publish a book about the platinum series. No such reference yet exists and the series has just past the 10-year mark. Ok, its probably too soon, but its still a fun thought.
Grits, I have been thinking about the non-w uncirculated plats, too. My primary though was to pick up a 2007 dated $50 just to show the different modes of production that year. Its the only year that we have 4 separate production types in the platinum series: proof, rev proof, w-unc, and "plain" unc. No, the 2007 non-w would not be a low mintage record holder, but I think its interesting just to "round out" the year. I think that these non-w issues will be discontinued in the future as well and eventually may be "forgotten about." What this means for future collector interest is unclear to me. There seem to be a number of "unloved" low mintage proofs from the 1800s, but I really enjoy the platinum series. Its really a shame that you can't buy the $50 proofs for $600 anymore... I still need a few of the back dates. For the first time in history, I followed the advice of those much wiser than myself and began purchasing the proofs in order of increasing mintages (first the 2004, then 2005, 2003, 2001, etc).
Eric
With platinum going up it will be interesting to see how many of these get sold with the super high price required by the mint.....
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
Raven, if we add Dec. 2007 (which are probably 2008 dates, from what I gather) sales plus January 2008 sales, 2008 bullion plat totals are:
1/10 4,000
1/4 0
1/2 200
1 1100
In other words, LOW, really low. Maybe, it IS just possible this could be the last year for these coins???
<< <i>The problem is not supposed to be resolved until 2012. It would not have run up so much if this was just a temprorary problem. This will take years to fix. >>
That's to get at 100% at it's current rate. The mining companies stock is hurting because of the amount they can mine. They are going "Green" to conserve energy as we speak to address part of the issue. The 2012 was a data I've read and that's only if you let the goverment solve the problem. The mining companies will spend some money to get back to full production and use other means as well as pursure giving money to the goverment to expand the power grid. Who knows how long it will be but where there's big bucks being lost I think they'll be on there way to find a solution sooner rather than latter for this affects the goverment revenues too you know.
I was wondering if that could be it for the 1/10 oz coins, I would imagine the other ones would sell a bit more as there are a few collectors of these and the oz coins would be nabbed by a few investors.....