Sales stopped in 2004 at week 30 (March 7th of 2005). If sales for 2005 had stopped at week 30 the mintages would have been way lower than 2004 by a lot
So it appears that 2007 except for the 1/10 oz are higher mintage..... interesting
Yes, it appears that some of the sales from the Proof may have shifted to UNCs this year (making sales for the $10 Proof a little slower). If this becomes a trend, we might see the same happen to the $25 and the $100s (time will tell). Usually, change starts at the bottom and goes to the top. By the end of the 2007 Sales Period everything should balance out. After a very troubled infancy, the Proof series can now be considered an established series.
I don't mind if the 1/10 oz sales drop off, because I am still going to purchase my coin for my collection
That's the spirit! To me, it doesn't matter which one ends up being the key date in the end. I will always have one of each; so, it makes no difference which one ends up on top!
Someone put a BIN on eBay last week on a $25 06-W Unc PCGS MS70 for $1425.00 and no takers. He/She finally took the listing off. I have a 06-W $25 PCGS MS70 and I kept my eye on the listing and I thought someone would purchase it for sure. So whats the current trend for such a mega rare modern piece ?
<< <i>Someone put a BIN on eBay last week on a $25 06-W Unc PCGS MS70 for $1425.00 and no takers. He/She finally took the listing off. I have a 06-W $25 PCGS MS70 and I kept my eye on the listing and I thought someone would purchase it for sure. So whats the current trend for such a mega rare modern piece ? >>
If I were a buyer, I would be happy to pay $800 or so for a MS69. If the coin is rare, it is rare regardless.
I find it interesting that a few of the frequent arguements against the low mintage platinum coins centers on their high cost/low collector base and value comparisons to low mintage commemoratives from the 1930s.
It is true that today a 1 ounce platinum coin will cost about 2-3 weeks of an average workers earnings. What is interesting is the same thing could be said of a St. Gaudens $20 1907-1915 proof when they were modern crap...new mint issues. I have my grandfathers ledger from 1915 when he practiced medicine. A lot of people paid for medical services with work. Going rate for a mans labor in 1916 was $0.20/hr in N.C. For an average worker to buy a proof St. Gaudens from mint in 1915 it would have taken around the same 2-3 weeks of salary. Maybe that is why so few bought and held Proof $20 St. Gaudens. The rest is history
As for comparisons of current price for low mintage commemoratives from 1930s vs. current price for todays low mintage platinums it is true that raw price alone doesn't suggest a large return. i.e. Commemoratives with mintages below 2,000 can be purchased for less than $500 however those raw numbers ignore the relative price appreciation a coin has had since issue. A 1938 half dollar that now sells for $200 has enjoyed a spectacular appreciation of 20,000+% since issue. I just hope the next 70 years will be so kind to the super low mintage platinums of today.
As I've said before the St. Gaudens proofs were once modern crap that few could afford to collect. Sounds like something else we frequently hear today??
Someone put a BIN on eBay last week on a $25 06-W Unc PCGS MS70 for $1425.00 and no takers. He/She finally took the listing off. I have a 06-W $25 PCGS MS70 and I kept my eye on the listing and I thought someone would purchase it for sure. So whats the current trend for such a mega rare modern piece ?
During the last quarter of 2007, three PCGS graded $25s were sold on eBay:
$1,600 - Sold on 10/4/07 - 1st Strike Label $1,850 - Sold on 10/18/07 - 1st Strike Label $1,048 - Sold on 11/5/07 - Non-1st Strike Label
There has been no PCGS graded $25s sold during this quarter (1st QTR 08). There was an NGC graded $25 (MS70) sold on 1/14/08 that sold for $1,029.
Thanks for all the great info. One thing that is overlooked in all the technical stuff, though, is the attractiveness of the design. Revisit the poll I ran a few weeks ago and you'll see the '04 and '05 are at the bottom of the pack. '06 faired much better, but I'm not sure why. It's beautifully executed, but rather bland otherwise. Maybe it has something to do with how many people got rich off of it! Anyway, I don't think you can ignore the popularity of the designs in predicting future mintages. I like 2007, but it's the same old government honoring itself stuff. Return to the inspiration of '98 through 2002, and you might see marked increases in sales.
Yes, by a large margin! Which makes me curious how the current "eagles" commemorative will do. Beautifully designed, a non-government theme...I hope it does well enough to inspire more imagination in future APE designs.
Yes, by a large margin! Which makes me curious how the current "eagles" commemorative will do. Beautifully designed, a non-government theme...I hope it does well enough to inspire more imagination in future APE designs.
They do have beautiful designs and I too hope they influence future APE designs!
I don't keep track of the eBay item numbers as they eventually become unsearchable and my main focus is on long term pricing. I didn't use the NGC number ($1,600) for 10/4 because I had PCGS numbers for that quarter of the year. I only used the NGC number for this quarter (1st QTR 08) because I don't have a PCGS number ($$$) to give.
Thank you! That $1,047.60 is the one! That was 11/5. Do you have an eBay Item Number on that for FloridaBill? BTW, I don't keep track of 1st Strike and Non-1st Strike either. I don't usually like to differentiate between labels...
Stayed up late on a Thurs. night to bid on a 2007 W Unc. NGC 70 (non-ER label). I picked it up for $790. This is barely over spot and less than issue. Seems like a pretty low risk bet on a low mintage coin. Hopefully time will be kind to this issue, as Eric has speculated.
Stayed up late on a Thurs. night to bid on a 2007 W Unc. NGC 70 (non-ER label). I picked it up for $790. This is barely over spot and less than issue. Seems like a pretty low risk bet on a low mintage coin. Hopefully time will be kind to this issue, as Eric has speculated.
I also bought a PCGS-70 of the half ozer the other night for $975. It's a little bit of koolaid, but since the ones I bought from the Mint aren't even contenders, I figured - hey, it's platinum and I won't be selling it any time soon. The interesting twist on the 1/2 oz. coins is that they fit nicely alongside the Anniversary Set as the lowest mintage coin of the 3.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I recently purchased a $25 07-W Unc PCGS MS70 for $525.00
I thought that was a good deal for a coin that is around 4000 mintage. >>
Take the time to look through your Red book and see how far back in time you have to go to find coins with mintages that look anything like roughly 3959. 1915 Pan Pac $50 slugs were dismissed as expensive bullion when they were young but look at them now. I'm so glad to be living and collecting in this Design Based and rare issue ERA! AND the bullion backs my purchase.
<< <i>Good for you! 2004 proof plat halves were trading at less than issue price for a while after close of sales.
4,000 mintage and bought for melt. Low risk is right. >>
Eric-
Thank you very much for directing our attention to these '07 Uncs. Just picked up an 2007 W $25 Unc. NGC 70 for $445. Hope that these are good long term holds. Have a good weekend.
I also caught the fever...maybe overpaid? A four coin set of 2007-W MS PCGS FS....the dime and quarter were 70, and the half and whole were 69....paid $3200 with shipping....all were FS...
Working on a new list of the rarest design and denomination based moderns in proof and business strike. The list is from one of my sorting programs and has estimates in the 2006 and 2007 dated items. I have no doubt that the numbers will need to be up dated and revised in the next few months but I though it was interesting even if not final (*).
1... 2,577 ..2006 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 2... 2,676 ..2006 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 3... 3,068 ..2006 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 4... 3,544 ..2006 -W $10 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 5... 3,959* ..2007 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential 6... 4,001* ..2007 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential 7... 5,000* ..2007 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential 8... 5,063 ..2004 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated 9... 5,174 ..1997-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Jackie Robinson 10.. 5,193 ..2004 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
The 2007 $25 and $100 Proof Platinum Eagles- Presidential will make this list more than likely just don't know where. Notice if the 2007 proof plat $25 and $100 come in under 9174 coins the changing reverse platinum eagles will represent 27 out of the 30 rarest modern design and denomination based type coins in proof and mint state.
Added 3/2/2008 From these tiny numbers must now come the loss associated with coins being sold for melt and mishandled or destroyed in the face of sky high material prices.
That's quite a sea of platinum, Eric! Thanks for the update!
What do you think the long-term effect of the 2007 10th Anniversary Set will have on this market?
Originally, I was hoping that it would help increase the collector base, but I don't see any clear signs of this yet (perhaps its just too early). To me, its easy to account for ~16,000 anniversary sets being sold: 10,000 to the holders of the 20th Anniv Gold Set, and 6,000 sets to the "regular" collectors of the $50 platinum proof coins. Is it really just this simple?
I would think that if the 10th Anniv Sets really created new collectors, we'd see more demand for the 2004 proofs and the 2006 & 2007 w-unc coins. I don't have a sense that this is happening.
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
I doubt theres anywhere near 6,000 collectors of the $50 plat proofs. With the way the economy is going and the way platinum is shooting up in price I do not think a lot of these coins will have much of a premium to melt for awhile. That being said I have done very well just on the price of platinum to the point of being ahead just on melt value even after buying a 2004 $50 2 years ago at the going rate.
if the 10th Anniv Sets really created new collectors, we'd see more demand for the 2004 proofs and the 2006 & 2007 w-unc coins. I don't have a sense that this is happening.
I think there's a good chance that the 10th Anniversary Set will create some new collectors- it doesn't seem likely that 16,000 sets were sold to speculators alone, since there's only so much $ to throw around like that. The Mint put on a nice little publicity campaign for the set, and that should help boost the recognition of platinum as a collectible.
However, it is way too soon for us to expect to see an impact on demand. The people who've ordered the Anniversary Set would have only received them a few weeks ago. Assuming they submitted via sealed box to PCGS for first strike grading, they might not even have the coins in hand at this point. You can't expect that a new collector would immediately turn around and spend additional thousands of dollars playing catch up on the rest. I won't pretend to know what the average collector's budget is for new coins, but would guess it is far less than would be required to rapidly scoop up an Anniversary set, a 2004 proof and a 2006 w uncirculated platinum.
<< <i>That's quite a sea of platinum, Eric! Thanks for the update!
What do you think the long-term effect of the 2007 10th Anniversary Set will have on this market?
Originally, I was hoping that it would help increase the collector base, but I don't see any clear signs of this yet (perhaps its just too early). To me, its easy to account for ~16,000 anniversary sets being sold: 10,000 to the holders of the 20th Anniv Gold Set, and 6,000 sets to the "regular" collectors of the $50 platinum proof coins. Is it really just this simple?
I would think that if the 10th Anniv Sets really created new collectors, we'd see more demand for the 2004 proofs and the 2006 & 2007 w-unc coins. I don't have a sense that this is happening.
Eric >>
Dan is correct.
LONG TERM larger total series populations put pressure on the key dates because common dates are advertisements for the series in general. We have seen a pop change from about 90,000 changing reverse proof platinum halves to about 125,000......in one year. Thats a 40% jump in one year! Common dates pops drive keys. There is no question that this will help but it takes time.........years. The anniversary set in general is going to be a set of dogs but they look good and will be bought for close to melt in non PCGS-70 grades for many years.
They are an attactive place to start for bullion buyers that want something pretty and over time some unknown percentage will start on the series.
Counter acting the ann set net effect on the halves is the cost of the material. Cheap common dates help collector base growth rates and these sky high materials prices slows this process. I think we may see slower key date growth as long as materials keep going up in REAL TERMS.
IMHO the ultimate question is will the mint in fact produce the UNC-w through 2015 as they have stated. If so this set will be the strongest series we have seen since before the great depression. Even stronger than the proofs.....and I love the proofs and think they will do fine too.
It is likey that the those selling 2006-w plats have made a serious miscalculation assuming the series survives. But frankly assuming that the average market participant really thinks long term is likely an error too.
<< <i>The 2006 W AGE gold PCGS MS 70's are selling close to melt also.2006 MS 70 Gold
Just too many graded MS 70 >>
Yes gradeflation is here to stay and thats why absolute low mitnages are so important. Can't grade loads of what does not exist. High dollar condition rarity for a modern is a VERY RISKY bet. It may turn out OK in some cases but I like to start with very very few coins and them dump a high grade on top of that for very little premium while the coins are still young.
The classic guys are right about one thing..........."buy the coin not the holder". We modern collectors may find that lesson to be true the hardway. Putting FS ER 70 and a big pink star on a slab may not have much value if the grading companies that we so love NGC and PCGS should ever loose market dominance.
Most everyone dreams of being in the right place, at the right time. Well, with platinum climbing this quickly, I see every reason to think that 2008 mintages will be killers. I just can't see demand keeping up with the pricing.
All the better, if you plan ahead.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Working on a new list of the rarest design and denomination based moderns in proof and mint state. The list is from one of my sorting programs and has estimates in the 2006 and 2007 dated items. I have no doubt that the numbers will need to be up dated and revised in the next few months but I though it was interesting even if not final (*).
1... 2,577* ..2006 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 2... 2,676* ..2006 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 3... 3,168* ..2006 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 4... 3,544* ..2006 -W $10 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative 5... 4,000* ..2007 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential 6... 4,001* ..2007 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential 7... 5,000* ..2007 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential 8... 5,063 ..2004 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated 9... 5,174 ..1997-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Jackie Robinson 10.. 5,193 ..2004 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
The 2007 $25 and $100 Proof Platinum Presidential Eagles will make this list more than likely we just don't know where. Notice if the 2007 proof plat $25 and $100 come in under 9174 coins the changing reverse platinum eagles will represent 27 out of the 30 rarest modern design and denomination based type coins in proof and mint state.
God knows what the 1/10 oz 08 Proof coin will cost when it is released later this year, if the prices stay where they are right now we are we talking about $280?
I would not be surprised to see less then 6,800 of these.....
Will still get one however
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
The rising price of platinum cuts across all denominations with regards to the numbers bought, but eric is right - the lower denominations tend to be less affected by rising platinum prices, even though their markups by the Mint are more on a percentage basis.
That's typically why the 1/2 ozer usually has the lowest mintage - the investors buy 1 oz. coins because of the lower premiums and there are more collectors willing to pay higher premiums at the lower cost points, which are 1/10 oz. and 1/14 oz. coins.
The 1/2 ozers just seem to get overlooked with regularity, in spite of the fact that most people know they will usually be the lowest mintage of the 4 coins (except for 2007 because of the Anniversary 1/2 oz. 2-coin set.)
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Agreed, but there is also some potential in the future for there to be quite a bit of interest in the 1/10 & 1/4 oz coins because they will be more affordable then the larger coins.....
We are still talking about really low mintage numbers.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
If the plat anniversary set flops, that will do more to reduce 08 plat mintages than rising base metal price.
I disagree. The platinum base was reasonably well established before the platinum anniversary set. If that set doesn't do well on the secondary market, it might disappoint the people who bought up 16,000 of them, but shouldn't negatively impact sales of the regular platinum issues going forward. If anything, it might still introduce new collectors into the fold.
The biggest factors in future platinum sales are high platinum prices and the feared recession. Melt on a 1 ounce coin has jumped from $400 to $1750 since 1997, and it is getting to a point where it is difficult for many to afford, especially given uncertain upside potential (numismatically speaking).
Spending $2,000 on a one ounce coin is a pretty big investment. For anyone with interest bearing debt, even at 5%, holding on to a one ounce platinum coin has an opportunity cost of about $100 in interest per year - if the coin fails to appreciate at a level equal or greater than the interest you pay on debt, you are losing money. That hasn't been a big factor with cheap credit and the rise in platinum over the last several years. We know that, despite moves by the Fed, cheap credit is dying and inflation is on the rise (which is in part responsible for the good bullion market, but that could end too).
The fact that 1 ounce 2006 w uncirculated platinum coins, which have a mintage of about 3,000, bring such a small premium over melt (maybe $100-200 based on recent ebay raw/ms69 sales) doesn't bode well for 2008 having much numismatic upside, so we're likely to see low numbers in 2008. I still doubt mintages will ever come in as low as 2006, but who knows. After the 2004 platinum proofs, I thought it highly unlikely to ever see a sub 5,000 mintage, and the w uncirculated platinums have blown the proofs away in terms of low mintages.
Going forward, especially if platinum price keeps rising, I would expect the proof and w-unc 1/4 ounce coins to be better values than the 1/2 ounce coins. Typically the mintage of the 1/4 ounce is only slightly higher than that of the 1/2 ounce, and it is much more affordable.
Comments
I don't have the numbers, how do these compare to the 2004?
I hope this answers your question:
As you can all see, 2005 still holds the lowest numbers...
$100 = 5171
$50 = 4273
$25 = 4339
$10 = 6095
Unfortunately, 2005 sold for more than 52 weeks.
Yes, it appears that some of the sales from the Proof may have shifted to UNCs this year (making sales for the $10 Proof a little slower). If this becomes a trend, we might see the same happen to the $25 and the $100s (time will tell). Usually, change starts at the bottom and goes to the top. By the end of the 2007 Sales Period everything should balance out. After a very troubled infancy, the Proof series can now be considered an established series.
That's the spirit! To me, it doesn't matter which one ends up being the key date in the end. I will always have one of each; so, it makes no difference which one ends up on top!
<< <i>Someone put a BIN on eBay last week on a $25 06-W Unc PCGS MS70 for $1425.00 and no takers. He/She finally took the listing off. I have a 06-W $25 PCGS MS70 and I kept my eye on the listing and I thought someone would purchase it for sure. So whats the current trend for such a mega rare modern piece ? >>
If I were a buyer, I would be happy to pay $800 or so for a MS69. If the coin is rare, it is rare regardless.
It is true that today a 1 ounce platinum coin will cost about 2-3 weeks of an average workers earnings.
What is interesting is the same thing could be said of a St. Gaudens $20 1907-1915 proof when they were modern crap...new mint issues.
I have my grandfathers ledger from 1915 when he practiced medicine.
A lot of people paid for medical services with work. Going rate for a mans labor in 1916 was $0.20/hr in N.C.
For an average worker to buy a proof St. Gaudens from mint in 1915 it would have taken around the same 2-3 weeks of salary.
Maybe that is why so few bought and held Proof $20 St. Gaudens.
The rest is history
As for comparisons of current price for low mintage commemoratives from 1930s vs. current price for todays low mintage platinums it is true that raw price alone doesn't suggest a large return. i.e. Commemoratives with mintages below 2,000 can be purchased for less than $500 however those raw numbers ignore the relative price appreciation a coin has had since issue.
A 1938 half dollar that now sells for $200 has enjoyed a spectacular appreciation of 20,000+% since issue.
I just hope the next 70 years will be so kind to the super low mintage platinums of today.
As I've said before the St. Gaudens proofs were once modern crap that few could afford to collect.
Sounds like something else we frequently hear today??
During the last quarter of 2007, three PCGS graded $25s were sold on eBay:
$1,600 - Sold on 10/4/07 - 1st Strike Label
$1,850 - Sold on 10/18/07 - 1st Strike Label
$1,048 - Sold on 11/5/07 - Non-1st Strike Label
There has been no PCGS graded $25s sold during this quarter (1st QTR 08). There was an NGC graded $25 (MS70) sold on 1/14/08 that sold for $1,029.
Those are the only reference points we have...
Thanks for all the great info. One thing that is overlooked in all the technical stuff, though, is the attractiveness of the design. Revisit the poll I ran a few weeks ago and you'll see the '04 and '05 are at the bottom of the pack. '06 faired much better, but I'm not sure why. It's beautifully executed, but rather bland otherwise. Maybe it has something to do with how many people got rich off of it! Anyway, I don't think you can ignore the popularity of the designs in predicting future mintages. I like 2007, but it's the same old government honoring itself stuff. Return to the inspiration of '98 through 2002, and you might see marked increases in sales.
Best plat design poll
I remember that poll. So, 98 won!!!
<< <i>Grits,
I remember that poll. So, 98 won!!!
>>
Yes, by a large margin! Which makes me curious how the current "eagles" commemorative will do. Beautifully designed, a non-government theme...I hope it does well enough to inspire more imagination in future APE designs.
They do have beautiful designs and I too hope they influence future APE designs!
I predict that they will become the new favorites. I haven't bought any yet, yikes!
I knew it would happen.
In fact everybody needs to stop purchasing these coins, they are losers in the future
<< <i>During the last quarter of 2007, three PCGS graded $25s were sold on eBay: >>
<< <i>$1,600 - Sold on 10/4/07 - 1st Strike Label >>
This was a MS70 FS, eBay # 160163213670
<< <i>$1,850 - Sold on 10/18/07 - 1st Strike Label >>
This was a MS70, eBay # 230181869646 NOT FIRST STRIKE
<< <i>$1,048 - Sold on 11/5/07 - Non-1st Strike Label >>
I don't have this trade in my database...could you please supply the eBay number?
Also, on 10/4, a NGC MS70 Early Release sold for $1600, eBay # 170153604354
FloridaBill
I don't keep track of the eBay item numbers as they eventually become unsearchable and my main focus is on long term pricing. I didn't use the NGC number ($1,600) for 10/4 because I had PCGS numbers for that quarter of the year. I only used the NGC number for this quarter (1st QTR 08) because I don't have a PCGS number ($$$) to give.
PCGS-70 Coins:
$1,047.60 (12 bids)
$1,650.00 (8 bids)
$1,810.00 (17 bids)
$1,813.88 (10 bids)
previous floating average: $1,875.00
NCG-70 Coins:
$1,029.00 (13 bids)
$1,075.00 (2 bids)
$1,233.00 (17 bids)
previous floating average: $1,610.00
These auctions occured in Nov-Dec-Jan.
The trend has been down. The data has been thin.
Supply has all but dried up on ebay?
I knew it would happen.
Thank you! That $1,047.60 is the one! That was 11/5. Do you have an eBay Item Number on that for FloridaBill? BTW, I don't keep track of 1st Strike and Non-1st Strike either. I don't usually like to differentiate between labels...
I knew it would happen.
Me too!!!
4,000 mintage and bought for melt. Low risk is right.
I also bought a PCGS-70 of the half ozer the other night for $975. It's a little bit of koolaid, but since the ones I bought from the Mint aren't even contenders, I figured - hey, it's platinum and I won't be selling it any time soon. The interesting twist on the 1/2 oz. coins is that they fit nicely alongside the Anniversary Set as the lowest mintage coin of the 3.
I knew it would happen.
Thats the beauty of infant mega coins. It just takes time to see them grow up.
I thought that was a good deal for a coin that is around 4000 mintage.
That's a very good deal!
<< <i>I recently purchased a $25 07-W Unc PCGS MS70 for $525.00
I thought that was a good deal for a coin that is around 4000 mintage. >>
Take the time to look through your Red book and see how far back in time you have to go to find coins with mintages that look anything like roughly 3959. 1915 Pan Pac $50 slugs were dismissed as expensive bullion when they were young but look at them now. I'm so glad to be living and collecting in this Design Based and rare issue ERA! AND the bullion backs my purchase.
<< <i>Good for you! 2004 proof plat halves were trading at less than issue price for a while after close of sales.
4,000 mintage and bought for melt. Low risk is right. >>
Eric-
Thank you very much for directing our attention to these '07 Uncs. Just picked up an 2007 W $25 Unc. NGC 70 for $445. Hope that these are good long term holds. Have a good weekend.
I also caught the fever...maybe overpaid? A four coin set of 2007-W MS PCGS FS....the dime and quarter were 70, and the half and whole were 69....paid $3200 with shipping....all were FS...
2007-w First Strike Set
FloridaBill
1... 2,577 ..2006 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
2... 2,676 ..2006 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
3... 3,068 ..2006 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
4... 3,544 ..2006 -W $10 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
5... 3,959* ..2007 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
6... 4,001* ..2007 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
7... 5,000* ..2007 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
8... 5,063 ..2004 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
9... 5,174 ..1997-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Jackie Robinson
10.. 5,193 ..2004 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
11.. 5,942 ..2005 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
12.. 6,000* ..2007 -W $10 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
13.. 6,007 ..2004 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
14.. 6,592 ..2005 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
15.. 6,602 ..2005 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
16.. 6,683 ..2000-W $10 MS BiMetalic Library Of Congress
17.. 6,761 ..2001-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Capital Visitor Center
18.. 7,044 ..2003 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
19.. 7,131 ..2003 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
20.. 7,161 ..2004 $10 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
21.. 7,508 ..2006 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - Legislative
22.. 7,846 ..2006 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - Legislative
23.. 8,104 ..2005 $10 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
24.. 8,246 ..2003 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
25.. 8,254 ..2001 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - South West
26.. 8,772 ..2002 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - North West
27.. 8,847 ..2001 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - South West
28.. 8,969 ..2001 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - South West
29.. 9,068 ..1996-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Smithsonian
30.. 9,174 ..1996-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Flag Bearer
31.. 9,210 ..1996-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Cauldron
32.. 9,282 ..2002 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - North West
33.. 9,320 ..2006 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - Legislative
34.. 9,534 ..2003 $10 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
35.. 9,834 ..2002 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - North West
36.. 10,000 ..2006 $50 Gold Eagle Reverse Proof 20th Anniv.
The 2007 $25 and $100 Proof Platinum Eagles- Presidential will make this list more than likely just don't know where. Notice if the 2007 proof plat $25 and $100 come in under 9174 coins the changing reverse platinum eagles will represent 27 out of the 30 rarest modern design and denomination based type coins in proof and mint state.
Added 3/2/2008
From these tiny numbers must now come the loss associated with coins being sold for melt and mishandled or destroyed in the face of sky high material prices.
Ericj96
What do you think the long-term effect of the 2007 10th Anniversary Set will have on this market?
Originally, I was hoping that it would help increase the collector base, but I don't see any clear signs of this yet (perhaps its just too early). To me, its easy to account for ~16,000 anniversary sets being sold: 10,000 to the holders of the 20th Anniv Gold Set, and 6,000 sets to the "regular" collectors of the $50 platinum proof coins. Is it really just this simple?
I would think that if the 10th Anniv Sets really created new collectors, we'd see more demand for the 2004 proofs and the 2006 & 2007 w-unc coins. I don't have a sense that this is happening.
Eric
With the way the economy is going and the way platinum is shooting up in price I do not think a lot of these coins will have much of a premium to melt for awhile. That being said I have done very well just on the price of platinum to the point of being ahead just on melt value even after buying a 2004 $50 2 years ago at the going rate.
I think there's a good chance that the 10th Anniversary Set will create some new collectors- it doesn't seem likely that 16,000 sets were sold to speculators alone, since there's only so much $ to throw around like that. The Mint put on a nice little publicity campaign for the set, and that should help boost the recognition of platinum as a collectible.
However, it is way too soon for us to expect to see an impact on demand. The people who've ordered the Anniversary Set would have only received them a few weeks ago. Assuming they submitted via sealed box to PCGS for first strike grading, they might not even have the coins in hand at this point. You can't expect that a new collector would immediately turn around and spend additional thousands of dollars playing catch up on the rest. I won't pretend to know what the average collector's budget is for new coins, but would guess it is far less than would be required to rapidly scoop up an Anniversary set, a 2004 proof and a 2006 w uncirculated platinum.
<< <i>That's quite a sea of platinum, Eric! Thanks for the update!
What do you think the long-term effect of the 2007 10th Anniversary Set will have on this market?
Originally, I was hoping that it would help increase the collector base, but I don't see any clear signs of this yet (perhaps its just too early). To me, its easy to account for ~16,000 anniversary sets being sold: 10,000 to the holders of the 20th Anniv Gold Set, and 6,000 sets to the "regular" collectors of the $50 platinum proof coins. Is it really just this simple?
I would think that if the 10th Anniv Sets really created new collectors, we'd see more demand for the 2004 proofs and the 2006 & 2007 w-unc coins. I don't have a sense that this is happening.
Eric >>
Dan is correct.
LONG TERM larger total series populations put pressure on the key dates because common dates are advertisements for the series in general. We have seen a pop change from about 90,000 changing reverse proof platinum halves to about 125,000......in one year. Thats a 40% jump in one year! Common dates pops drive keys. There is no question that this will help but it takes time.........years. The anniversary set in general is going to be a set of dogs but they look good and will be bought for close to melt in non PCGS-70 grades for many years.
They are an attactive place to start for bullion buyers that want something pretty and over time some unknown percentage will start on the series.
Counter acting the ann set net effect on the halves is the cost of the material. Cheap common dates help collector base growth rates and these sky high materials prices slows this process. I think we may see slower key date growth as long as materials keep going up in REAL TERMS.
IMHO the ultimate question is will the mint in fact produce the UNC-w through 2015 as they have stated. If so this set will be the strongest series we have seen since before the great depression. Even stronger than the proofs.....and I love the proofs and think they will do fine too.
It is likey that the those selling 2006-w plats have made a serious miscalculation assuming the series survives. But frankly assuming that the average market participant really thinks long term is likely an error too.
Just too many graded MS 70
Box of 20
<< <i>The 2006 W AGE gold PCGS MS 70's are selling close to melt also.2006 MS 70 Gold
Just too many graded MS 70 >>
Yes gradeflation is here to stay and thats why absolute low mitnages are so important. Can't grade loads of what does not exist. High dollar condition rarity for a modern is a VERY RISKY
bet. It may turn out OK in some cases but I like to start with very very few coins and them dump a high grade on top of that for very little premium while the coins are still young.
The classic guys are right about one thing..........."buy the coin not the holder". We modern collectors may find that lesson to be true the hardway. Putting FS ER 70 and a big pink star on a slab may not have much value if the grading companies that we so love NGC and PCGS should ever loose market dominance.
All the better, if you plan ahead.
I knew it would happen.
1... 2,577* ..2006 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
2... 2,676* ..2006 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
3... 3,168* ..2006 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
4... 3,544* ..2006 -W $10 MS Platinum Eagle-Legislative
5... 4,000* ..2007 -W $25 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
6... 4,001* ..2007 -W $50 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
7... 5,000* ..2007 -W $100 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
8... 5,063 ..2004 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
9... 5,174 ..1997-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Jackie Robinson
10.. 5,193 ..2004 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
11.. 5,942 ..2005 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
12.. 6,000* ..2007 -W $10 MS Platinum Eagle-Presidential
13.. 6,007 ..2004 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
14.. 6,592 ..2005 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
15.. 6,602 ..2005 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
16.. 6,683 ..2000-W $10 MS BiMetalic Library Of Congress
17.. 6,761 ..2001-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Capital Visitor Center
18.. 7,044 ..2003 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
19.. 7,131 ..2003 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
20.. 7,161 ..2004 $10 Proof Platinum Eagle - America Seated
21.. 7,508 ..2006 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - Legislative
22.. 7,846 ..2006 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - Legislative
23.. 8,104 ..2005 $10 Proof Platinum Eagle - Plenty
24.. 8,246 ..2003 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
25.. 8,254 ..2001 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - South West
26.. 8,772 ..2002 $50 Proof Platinum Eagle - North West
27.. 8,847 ..2001 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - South West
28.. 8,969 ..2001 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - South West
29.. 9,068 ..1996-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Smithsonian
30.. 9,174 ..1996-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Flag Bearer
31.. 9,210 ..1996-W $5 MS Gold Eagle -Cauldron
32.. 9,282 ..2002 $25 Proof Platinum Eagle - North West
33.. 9,320 ..2006 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - Legislative
34.. 9,534 ..2003 $10 Proof Platinum Eagle - Vigilance
35.. 9,834 ..2002 $100 Proof Platinum Eagle - North West
36.. 10,000 ..2006 $50 Gold Eagle Reverse Proof 20th Anniv.
The 2007 $25 and $100 Proof Platinum Presidential Eagles will make this list more than likely we just don't know where. Notice if the 2007 proof plat $25 and $100 come in under 9174 coins the changing reverse platinum eagles will represent 27 out of the 30 rarest modern design and denomination based type coins in proof and mint state.
Ericj96
I would not be surprised to see less then 6,800 of these.....
Will still get one however
That's typically why the 1/2 ozer usually has the lowest mintage - the investors buy 1 oz. coins because of the lower premiums and there are more collectors willing to pay higher premiums at the lower cost points, which are 1/10 oz. and 1/14 oz. coins.
The 1/2 ozers just seem to get overlooked with regularity, in spite of the fact that most people know they will usually be the lowest mintage of the 4 coins (except for 2007 because of the Anniversary 1/2 oz. 2-coin set.)
I knew it would happen.
We are still talking about really low mintage numbers.....
I disagree. The platinum base was reasonably well established before the platinum anniversary set. If that set doesn't do well on the secondary market, it might disappoint the people who bought up 16,000 of them, but shouldn't negatively impact sales of the regular platinum issues going forward. If anything, it might still introduce new collectors into the fold.
The biggest factors in future platinum sales are high platinum prices and the feared recession. Melt on a 1 ounce coin has jumped from $400 to $1750 since 1997, and it is getting to a point where it is difficult for many to afford, especially given uncertain upside potential (numismatically speaking).
Spending $2,000 on a one ounce coin is a pretty big investment. For anyone with interest bearing debt, even at 5%, holding on to a one ounce platinum coin has an opportunity cost of about $100 in interest per year - if the coin fails to appreciate at a level equal or greater than the interest you pay on debt, you are losing money. That hasn't been a big factor with cheap credit and the rise in platinum over the last several years. We know that, despite moves by the Fed, cheap credit is dying and inflation is on the rise (which is in part responsible for the good bullion market, but that could end too).
The fact that 1 ounce 2006 w uncirculated platinum coins, which have a mintage of about 3,000, bring such a small premium over melt (maybe $100-200 based on recent ebay raw/ms69 sales) doesn't bode well for 2008 having much numismatic upside, so we're likely to see low numbers in 2008. I still doubt mintages will ever come in as low as 2006, but who knows. After the 2004 platinum proofs, I thought it highly unlikely to ever see a sub 5,000 mintage, and the w uncirculated platinums have blown the proofs away in terms of low mintages.
I knew it would happen.
Going forward, especially if platinum price keeps rising, I would expect the proof and w-unc 1/4 ounce coins to be better values than the 1/2 ounce coins. Typically the mintage of the 1/4 ounce is only slightly higher than that of the 1/2 ounce, and it is much more affordable.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
