There may be lower mintages in the stable reverse bullion plats with the eagle flying over the sun but the plats are collected by design in cameo proof and mint state not date and mint mark so a 1500 mintage date rare 2008 $100 bullion plat may come but so what?
If a 70 year old commem thats just date and mint mark rare (2000 mintage) in the midst of a set thats collected by design is worth $300 in typical mint state grade then....... yes after the flippers have the fit over the lower number and make the price spike early they may find that over time they have nothing but an expensive platinum slug trading at 20 percent over melt in MS-69 from year 2-20. Very expensive date and mint mark rare issues in the midst of type sets frequently are dogs. 1500 mintage on a $1500 coin may not be low enough to save the coin LONGER TERM. If a 3,000 issue comes out with the eagle over the sun its going to be a MS-69 dog for a very long time because in the plat series zero design based rarity = a long and hard road.
Classic commemoratives are usually collected by design, but that is not necessarily the case with modern platinum.
Over 3,300 2007 $100 bullion plats have been graded so far by PCGS and NGC combined. To me that indicates a serious collector base for the bullion issues, apart from those who are collecting proof and burnished platinum by design.
<< <i>There may be lower mintages in the stable reverse bullion plats with the eagle flying over the sun but the plats are collected by design in cameo proof and mint state not date and mint mark so a 1500 mintage date rare 2008 $100 bullion plat may come but so what?
Ericj96 >>
Of course it will always depend on the collector base, but I've got a feeling you're off here, Eric. Just look at the '90 and '91 1/2-ounce gold eagles, which command a premium. Now, you may be MORE right for the 1-ounce plats, which just seem like big slugs to me, but I think the fractionals will eventually see some interest, especially after a few years of crazy-low mintages.
I agree that there is more hope for the fractionals than the large slugs.
The gold eagles are collected by date and mint mark because there is not a collecting by type tradition to compromise the importance of dates to the set. The plats have a tradition of collecting by reverse design and its becoming more pronounced with the advent of the changing reverse unc-w.
I collected old commems at one point and learned to pay attention to a sets nature ..... is it a type set or a series date and mintmark set? I have also seen this in my dark side collecting of British Gold. Many are crazy rare by date but common by type and bring 10% over melt YEARS later.
The changing design reverse concept is a nice touch however, the Plats are a very young series and I'm not so sure that a preference for collecting reverse design varieties has been established across-the-board. I still believe that mintage trumps whatever new variety the Mint might be selling at the moment.
In my opinion, Plats first got interesting when the 2000 1 oz. Unc. coin came out around 10,003 in mintage, not because of the changing reverse on the proof coins. Not only were 10,003 coins a dramatic dropoff in mintage for the 1 oz. Unc., but that low mintage was the lowest of any of the denominations in Unc. or Proof up till that time. Things didn't get interesting in Plats again until 2003, when the Proofs all hit record low mintage numbers (all under 10,000 mintages - 7,044 on the 1/4 oz.), and the 1 oz. Unc. hit another record low (8,007). It was at that time that my preference shifted to the Proofs, mainly due to the lower mintages.
Since 2004, Plats have attracted more attention simply because the mintages continue to drop off, for various reasons - some of them being manipulation by the Mint (new finishes, Mintmarks, special issues.) Since 2003, the Proofs have dominated in collectors' minds - not just because of changing reverses, but also because of low and lower mintages.
I do believe that we are at a "tipping point" with regard to the tricks that the Mint can play in order to jack up sales. In spite of all the new varieties, the total oz. of platinum sold hasn't increased at all. After the "W" Burnished coins and the Anniversary Set, the market is tapped out. There is nothing else left in the Mint's bag of tricks, short of a "20% Off Sale" that will prevent the total platinum sales from this continuing decline, taking the Mint's revenues along with them in 2008.
Time will tell. I think that the jury is still out, and I also think that the winners will be driven more by mintages than by design. Just my opinion, and I've been wrong before - well, at least once I think.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Like you, I started going after the proof plats because of the lower mintages, not the changing designs. Similarly, I collected the gold bullion coins over the proofs because of the bullion's lower mintages. That said, now I am more a fan of the proof plats because of the changing designs and the nice finish. And overall, I think the bullion plats are going to get mighty interesting soon.
Eric, I know nothing about British coins except I know you can get crazy-low mintages for reasonable prices. Maybe we will go that way, too. We'll have the Mint to thank for that.
And, again, if the Mint is reading: you do need to drop ONE of the three plat series!
Eric, how close are these numbers for the 2006-Ws to reality:
1/10 oz. - 3,544 1/4 oz. - 2,676 1/2 oz. - 2,577 1 oz. - 3,168
The adjustments that were made to the 2006-Ws: were they made due to returns, or did anyone ever learn why the sales figures were all decreased by over 1,000 pieces back in June?
Is there a chance that the same thing could happen to the 2007-W mintages?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Eric, do you think the Ws are about out of gas? >>
I think 2007-w MS plats have a while to go but I think the quarters and halves will be Unc Jackie Robinson rarity class or lower. They will be OK over time esp. if you bought them from the mint and they make PCGS-70. They are not likley to be 2006-w MS Platinum class of coin in any way shape or form.
As far as the data that came out last June and then the July correction we should expect such things. It happened in 2005 on the proofs plats. One junk data point and everyone goes off the deep end. We have covered the nature of the 2006-w mintage figures on this thread. What is known and what is likely and why. The 2007-w numbers in the weekly sales report are well behaved and they are very likely close to the real number of shipped and held coins to within 6 percent.
I am not aware of any other better data out yet for 2006-w but I ask the mint frequently and will tell you here when I know.
If the mint can keep that going at this rate sounds like a lot of good deals on Ebay soon.
I hope you are right. It would be nice to buy a PCGS Reverse Proof PR70 for a reasonable price. I wonder how many of those orders are actually "Suspended" or "Canceled". I guess we'll know next week when the first week sales data come out...
Well into next year thats for flat certain. Now one of the denominations might blink out but in general I think they will be for sale for a while. I bet the $100 coin sells to April 2008.
Its important to realize going forward the w uncs are going to act at least from time to time as substitute goods for the bullion coins with the eagle flying over the sun. The mints new policy of 1000 oz minimum orders for plat bullion (eagle over the sun)will discourage sales. 1.5 million is a serious minimum order at 4-15 percent over melt and is high risk. The market will more than likely go for 10 over melt for the changing reverse plats with no minimum order.....and a 30 day no questions asked return option. Bottom line is from now on I think we will see both the collector base and the bullion buyers picking up these coins and a higher mintage floor is the likely result going forward. The 2006-w is going to be a very deep key for a while.
Relatively cheap common dates put pressure on rare series back dates and it looks like given the structural changes the numbers in general are going to stay over 4,000 coins year in and year out until something major changes.
Now I see people getting all excited because the bullion -eagle over the sun plats are going to be low mintage this year. I say to them first off that they need to lower than 2006-w to have any hope in the unc set because the 2006-w sets the standard. Also with the 1.5 million min order next year we may find that very few dealers step up for that kind of hit and the mintages may fall even more. If thats the case the 2007 bullion with the eagle over the sun is melt for a very long time. If the mintages on the 2008 bullion plats falls to less than 2000 coins maybe they have a chance if you think the series will be collected by date and mint mark not design type like the old commems.
I think the bullion plats are in trouble longer term unless the mintages get REAL SMALL. A short term flipper spike likely will show up, its a question of how much jump and can the eagle over the sun coins hold the spike over melt three years later. The 1939 Arkansas halves with 2000 coin mintages have had 70 years and done nothing because the series is collected by type.
The anniversary set is a fantastic long term blessing to the proof halves. If they sell say 20,000 sets and just 1/20 buyers looks at the larger series mintage tables and decides the halves are rare and beautiful and worth chasing the key date 04 and 05 material would get tight. Where would one find 1000 2004 proof plat halves? If 20,000 sets sell the halves will see a 50 percent growth in total pops in one year! Common dates put pressure on back dates over time................................
It will be interesting to see how this will all play out.
I do suggest if you can for the 2007-w plats.................. now is the time to be very picky about what you hold. If its very strong you may be glad to have it long term. Just don't pay high mark ups for it.
1. Last night I picked up a 2007 W $25 MS69 Platinum for about $393! That's less than $10 over spot and $56 less than the (un-slabbed) Mint offering! And that's for a coin where there are about 1,000+ singles.
2. 12-25-07's NN shows 2007 W unc plats @:
858 844 840 3092 2371
So the 1oz, 1/2, 1/4 increased by 297, 252, 178 respectively. And the 1/10 and 4-coin increased 71 and 188 respectively. These are compared to Ericj's recent update. That's a big platinum surge for the holidays.
3. Eric...will you be including the new bald eagle commemoratives in this group discussion?
<< <i>1. Last night I picked up a 2007 W $25 MS69 Platinum for about $393! That's less than $10 over spot and $56 less than the (un-slabbed) Mint offering! And that's for a coin where there are about 1,000+ singles.
2. 12-25-07's NN shows 2007 W unc plats @:
858 844 840 3092 2371
So the 1oz, 1/2, 1/4 increased by 297, 252, 178 respectively. And the 1/10 and 4-coin increased 71 and 188 respectively. These are compared to Ericj's recent update. That's a big platinum surge for the holidays.
3. Eric...will you be including the new bald eagle commemoratives in this group discussion?
Ren >>
Ren,
I have not looked into the Bald Eagle Commems yet. We need more data on them to cover the topic with any hope of being correct.
Also notice the single issue halves 2006-w Unc have sold almost twice last years likely numbers so I would expect to see most of the options inventory twice that of last year.........I hope this is not the case. I think the higher end of the range we were looking at previoulsy on this post is looking more likely.
I hope the mint sells out of halves and quarters soon around 1200 coins each. If not heaven help the 2007-w coins. Melt value in MS-69 will be their lot for years. With the mints new 1.5 million dollar minimum (roughly) purchase for bullion plats (eagle over the sun issues) I think we will see bullion sales volume bleading over to the Unc-w coins and the combined collector base plus bullion sales could hold the unc-w sales volumes over 4,000 coins a years for a very long time barring some serious outside influences.
2006 was a very good year and its looking better and better!
I think there's a good chance that 2008 w uncirculateds can continue the upward sales trend, especially if platinum gets more attention as a result of the reverse proof set.
Even if the Mint has a substantial inventory of unsold 2007 ws, I think sales will drop off until the 2008s come out.
Secondary market on the 2007 ws are not great at the moment- if you can pick them up for less than issue price, that doesn't bode well for the remaining Mint inventory.
I, for one, hope that the Mint stays with the plan of a 3 coin series for the (w) uncirculated coins.
Legislative, Executive, Judicial. That's good enough for me.
Dan I have NO doubt you will get your 3 coin set. You likely will get many more years than that. The mint has got to be happy with the plats rebounding sales volume. They have already told us the likely designs through 2015.
Design does impact sales. The Eagle and the Owl in next years reverse is fantastic and I think it will sell fine.
One thing worth mentioning is that the slowest selling year for Platinum Proof Eagles was 2005 and not 2004. Had the mint let 2004 Eagles sell the whole year, 2005 would have been the key date. Also, 2005 sales period was extended past the usual 52 week cycle (58 weeks). In comparison, 2004 only sold for 30 weeks (if I am not mistaken)...
I have some thoughts about this, but this data cannot be evaluated without context, which means that the average annual price of platinum associated with each of these data points ought to be considered as part of the same analysis.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Okay, okay - these are the total oz. of platinum sold, starting in 2000 through 2007. I left off years 1997-1999, but they would indeed show an even more pronounced trend.
My observation is that of declining sales in the face of rising prices for platinum. To address the issue, the Mint pulled out the Burnished "W" uncs in 2006, and followed up with the Burnished "W" uncs AND the Anniversary Set in 2007. It seems to have bolstered unit sales temporarily.
The real question mark is 2008. Somebody posted a recent quote from Director Moy where he referred to the Plats as something on the order of the Mint's premier product in the whole coinage program. Thus, it seems that he has further plans to support the Plats in as many ways as to keep collector (and speculator) interest running high.
Which brings me full circle back to ericj's remarks:
Well into next year thats for flat certain. Now one of the denominations might blink out but in general I think they will be for sale for a while. I bet the $100 coin sells to April 2008.
Its important to realize going forward the w uncs are going to act at least from time to time as substitute goods for the bullion coins with the eagle flying over the sun. The mints new policy of 1000 oz minimum orders for plat bullion (eagle over the sun)will discourage sales. 1.5 million is a serious minimum order at 4-15 percent over melt and is high risk. The market will more than likely go for 10 over melt for the changing reverse plats with no minimum order.....and a 30 day no questions asked return option. Bottom line is from now on I think we will see both the collector base and the bullion buyers picking up these coins and a higher mintage floor is the likely result going forward. The 2006-w is going to be a very deep key for a while.
Relatively cheap common dates put pressure on rare series back dates and it looks like given the structural changes the numbers in general are going to stay over 4,000 coins year in and year out until something major changes.
Now I see people getting all excited because the bullion -eagle over the sun plats are going to be low mintage this year. I say to them first off that they need to lower than 2006-w to have any hope in the unc set because the 2006-w sets the standard. Also with the 1.5 million min order next year we may find that very few dealers step up for that kind of hit and the mintages may fall even more. If thats the case the 2007 bullion with the eagle over the sun is melt for a very long time. If the mintages on the 2008 bullion plats falls to less than 2000 coins maybe they have a chance if you think the series will be collected by date and mint mark not design type like the old commems.
I think the bullion plats are in trouble longer term unless the mintages get REAL SMALL. A short term flipper spike likely will show up, its a question of how much jump and can the eagle over the sun coins hold the spike over melt three years later. The 1939 Arkansas halves with 2000 coin mintages have had 70 years and done nothing because the series is collected by type.
The anniversary set is a fantastic long term blessing to the proof halves. If they sell say 20,000 sets and just 1/20 buyers looks at the larger series mintage tables and decides the halves are rare and beautiful and worth chasing the key date 04 and 05 material would get tight. Where would one find 1000 2004 proof plat halves? If 20,000 sets sell the halves will see a 50 percent growth in total pops in one year! Common dates put pressure on back dates over time................................
It will be interesting to see how this will all play out.
I do suggest if you can for the 2007-w plats.................. now is the time to be very picky about what you hold. If its very strong you may be glad to have it long term. Just don't pay high mark ups for it.
So, when I read through Eric's commentary, I see several cross-currents and I note the structural change that is happening in the distribution of bullion coins.
Will the regular issue bullion coins be squeezed out entirely, and if not, will the small trickle that remains represent a major opportunity, if they can be located at all?
Maybe the Mint has come to the realization that Plats are mainly a speculation for most people, and the only real way to build volume over time is to start catering to collectors in a serious way. If that is in fact the case, then Eric might be right all along in his assessment of the ways that collections are built - alternating short series having various themes on the reverses.
Frankly, I would welcome a planned, methodical approach to collecting Plats. As the Plat series has developed, it has been too helter-skelter (and expensive) to bother with collecting and much more productive only to focus on speculation. Speculation doesn't breed loyalty and prolonged interest. Collecting does.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Maybe the Mint has come to the realization that Plats are mainly a speculation for most people, and the only real way to build volume over time is to start catering to collectors in a serious way. If that is in fact the case, then Eric might be right all along in his assessment of the ways that collections are built - alternating short series having various themes on the reverses.
Frankly, I would welcome a planned, methodical approach to collecting Plats. As the Plat series has developed, it has been too helter-skelter (and expensive) to bother with collecting and much more productive only to focus on speculation. Speculation doesn't breed loyalty and prolonged interest. Collecting does.
Changing reverse Unc-w platinum eagles weekly sales report numbers as of 1/8/2008:
$100...1277 $50....1140 $25....1081 $10....3244 *on hold for packaging 4 coin set 2748 ** sold out for the year!
Miles pointed out that the 4 coin set has not only died but gone into the retro listings bone yard on the mints web site.
GOLD: I think the 2007-w unc gold eagles may be done for the year but I just don't know if 10000-12000 mintage range is low enough to make them enduring semi keys or not. The 2006-w gold has an effective mintage of about 11,000 quarters and halves but thats good for just over melt. So its not clear to me at least that the 2007-w gold is going to be a killer.
Comments
Ericj96
a 1500 mintage date rare 2008 $100 bullion plat may come but so what?
I don't see that happening, since the combined PCGS and NGC population of $100 bullion plats dated 2005, 2006 and 2007 is over 3,000 for each year.
There must be some collector demand for the bullion issues.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Whaddya mean, "so what?" Are you telling me that if a Plat, any Plat comes up with a mintage of 1,500 - people won't be scrambling to find some?
That's the type of news that would put regular circulation strikes back on the map!
I knew it would happen.
If a 70 year old commem thats just date and mint mark rare (2000 mintage) in the midst of a set thats collected by design is worth $300 in typical mint state grade then....... yes after the flippers have the fit over the lower number and make the price spike early they may find that over time they have nothing but an expensive platinum slug trading at 20 percent over melt in MS-69 from year 2-20. Very expensive date and mint mark rare issues in the midst of type sets frequently are dogs. 1500 mintage on a $1500 coin may not be low enough to save the coin LONGER TERM. If a 3,000 issue comes out with the eagle over the sun its going to be a MS-69 dog for a very long time because in the plat series zero design based rarity = a long and hard road.
Eric96
Classic commemoratives are usually collected by design, but that is not necessarily the case with modern platinum.
Over 3,300 2007 $100 bullion plats have been graded so far by PCGS and NGC combined. To me that indicates a serious collector base for the bullion issues, apart from those who are collecting proof and burnished platinum by design.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>There may be lower mintages in the stable reverse bullion plats with the eagle flying over the sun but the plats are collected by design in cameo proof and mint state not date and mint mark so a 1500 mintage date rare 2008 $100 bullion plat may come but so what?
Ericj96 >>
Of course it will always depend on the collector base, but I've got a feeling you're off here, Eric. Just look at the '90 and '91 1/2-ounce gold eagles, which command a premium. Now, you may be MORE right for the 1-ounce plats, which just seem like big slugs to me, but I think the fractionals will eventually see some interest, especially after a few years of crazy-low mintages.
The gold eagles are collected by date and mint mark because there is not a collecting by type tradition to compromise the importance of dates to the set. The plats have a tradition of collecting by reverse design and its becoming more pronounced with the advent of the changing reverse unc-w.
I collected old commems at one point and learned to pay attention to a sets nature ..... is it a type set or a series date and mintmark set? I have also seen this in my dark side collecting of British Gold. Many are crazy rare by date but common by type and bring 10% over melt YEARS later.
Ericj96
In my opinion, Plats first got interesting when the 2000 1 oz. Unc. coin came out around 10,003 in mintage, not because of the changing reverse on the proof coins. Not only were 10,003 coins a dramatic dropoff in mintage for the 1 oz. Unc., but that low mintage was the lowest of any of the denominations in Unc. or Proof up till that time. Things didn't get interesting in Plats again until 2003, when the Proofs all hit record low mintage numbers (all under 10,000 mintages - 7,044 on the 1/4 oz.), and the 1 oz. Unc. hit another record low (8,007). It was at that time that my preference shifted to the Proofs, mainly due to the lower mintages.
Since 2004, Plats have attracted more attention simply because the mintages continue to drop off, for various reasons - some of them being manipulation by the Mint (new finishes, Mintmarks, special issues.) Since 2003, the Proofs have dominated in collectors' minds - not just because of changing reverses, but also because of low and lower mintages.
I do believe that we are at a "tipping point" with regard to the tricks that the Mint can play in order to jack up sales. In spite of all the new varieties, the total oz. of platinum sold hasn't increased at all. After the "W" Burnished coins and the Anniversary Set, the market is tapped out. There is nothing else left in the Mint's bag of tricks, short of a "20% Off Sale" that will prevent the total platinum sales from this continuing decline, taking the Mint's revenues along with them in 2008.
Time will tell. I think that the jury is still out, and I also think that the winners will be driven more by mintages than by design. Just my opinion, and I've been wrong before - well, at least once I think.
I knew it would happen.
Eric, I know nothing about British coins except I know you can get crazy-low mintages for reasonable prices. Maybe we will go that way, too. We'll have the Mint to thank for that.
And, again, if the Mint is reading: you do need to drop ONE of the three plat series!
MINT STATE PLATS 2007-W
$100... 3229
$50..... 3215
$25..... 3211
$10..... 5463
INLCUDES 2371 FOUR COIN SETS
PROOF PLATS
6780
5155
5240
6246
INCLUDES 4022 FOUR COIN SETS.
1/10 oz. - 3,544
1/4 oz. - 2,676
1/2 oz. - 2,577
1 oz. - 3,168
The adjustments that were made to the 2006-Ws: were they made due to returns, or did anyone ever learn why the sales figures were all decreased by over 1,000 pieces back in June?
Is there a chance that the same thing could happen to the 2007-W mintages?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Eric, do you think the Ws are about out of gas? >>
I think 2007-w MS plats have a while to go but I think the quarters and halves will be Unc Jackie Robinson rarity class or lower. They will be OK over time esp. if you bought them from the mint and they make PCGS-70. They are not likley to be 2006-w MS Platinum class of coin in any way shape or form.
As far as the data that came out last June and then the July correction we should expect such things. It happened in 2005 on the proofs plats. One junk data point and everyone goes off the deep end. We have covered the nature of the 2006-w mintage figures on this thread. What is known and what is likely and why. The 2007-w numbers in the weekly sales report are well behaved and they are very likely close to the real number of shipped and held coins to within 6 percent.
I am not aware of any other better data out yet for 2006-w but I ask the mint frequently and will tell you here when I know.
Ericj96
"well behaved" - I like that as a descriptor!
As always, Eric, your inputs and helpfulness are greatly appreciated!
I knew it would happen.
I hope you are right. It would be nice to buy a PCGS Reverse Proof PR70 for a reasonable price. I wonder how many of those orders are actually "Suspended" or "Canceled". I guess we'll know next week when the first week sales data come out...
Wondercoin
Wondercoin
Nice Post on the RP.
<< <i>a 1500 mintage date rare 2008 $100 bullion plat may come but so what?
I don't see that happening, since the combined PCGS and NGC population of $100 bullion plats dated 2005, 2006 and 2007 is over 3,000 for each year.
There must be some collector demand for the bullion issues. >>
I think they'll do the best, long term. I think people are gonna melt these non-proof non-w guys as the years ago on.
2007-W UNC PLATS
$100...931
$50....904
$25....927
$10....3312
4 COIN SETS 2423
ANNIVERSARY TWO COIN HALF PLAT PROOF SET
14,682
SO THERE YOU HAVE IT FOLKS!
<< <i>WEEKLY SALES REPORT AS OF DEC17TH
2007-W UNC PLATS
$100...931
$50....904
$25....927
$10....3312
4 COIN SETS 2423
ANNIVERSARY TWO COIN HALF PLAT PROOF SET
14,682
SO THERE YOU HAVE IT FOLKS! >>
Sa-weeet... How much longer are they selling the 07 unc plats?
<< <i>Do you think they will pull them Eric, with rising the Plat prices? >>
Not yet. They pulled them last time at about 5% over melt.
Well into next year thats for flat certain. Now one of the denominations might blink out but in general I think they will be for sale for a while. I bet the $100 coin sells to April 2008.
Its important to realize going forward the w uncs are going to act at least from time to time as substitute goods for the bullion coins with the eagle flying over the sun. The mints new policy of 1000 oz minimum orders for plat bullion (eagle over the sun)will discourage sales. 1.5 million is a serious minimum order at 4-15 percent over melt and is high risk. The market will more than likely go for 10 over melt for the changing reverse plats with no minimum order.....and a 30 day no questions asked return option. Bottom line is from now on I think we will see both the collector base and the bullion buyers picking up these coins and a higher mintage floor is the likely result going forward. The 2006-w is going to be a very deep key for a while.
Relatively cheap common dates put pressure on rare series back dates and it looks like given the structural changes the numbers in general are going to stay over 4,000 coins year in and year out until something major changes.
Now I see people getting all excited because the bullion -eagle over the sun plats are going to be low mintage this year. I say to them first off that they need to lower than 2006-w to have any hope in the unc set because the 2006-w sets the standard. Also with the 1.5 million min order next year we may find that very few dealers step up for that kind of hit and the mintages may fall even more. If thats the case the 2007 bullion with the eagle over the sun is melt for a very long time. If the mintages on the 2008 bullion plats falls to less than 2000 coins maybe they have a chance if you think the series will be collected by date and mint mark not design type like the old commems.
I think the bullion plats are in trouble longer term unless the mintages get REAL SMALL. A short term flipper spike likely will show up, its a question of how much jump and can the eagle over the sun coins hold the spike over melt three years later. The 1939 Arkansas halves with 2000 coin mintages have had 70 years and done nothing because the series is collected by type.
The anniversary set is a fantastic long term blessing to the proof halves. If they sell say 20,000 sets and just 1/20 buyers looks at the larger series mintage tables and decides the halves are rare and beautiful and worth chasing the key date 04 and 05 material would get tight. Where would one find 1000 2004 proof plat halves? If 20,000 sets sell the halves will see a 50 percent growth in total pops in one year! Common dates put pressure on back dates over time................................
It will be interesting to see how this will all play out.
I do suggest if you can for the 2007-w plats.................. now is the time to be very picky about what you hold.
If its very strong you may be glad to have it long term. Just don't pay high mark ups for it.
Best Wishes to you all,
Eric Jordan
Proof platinum eagles
$100...3011
$50....1193
$25....1322
$10....2417
4 coin set....4188
2007-W changing reverse Uncirculated
1155
1096
1018
3163
2559
Special 2 Coin Ann Set 15,840
Strange numbers though.
December 17....December 27
$100...931.......1115....(+20%)
$50.....904.......1096....(+21%)
$25.....927.......1018....(+10%)
$10...3312.......3163....(-5%)
SETS 2423.......2559....(+5%)
looks like strong sales on the $100 and $50, but what happened on the $10s? did someone return 200 $10 coins??
2. 12-25-07's NN shows 2007 W unc plats @:
858
844
840
3092
2371
So the 1oz, 1/2, 1/4 increased by 297, 252, 178 respectively. And the 1/10 and 4-coin increased 71 and 188 respectively. These are compared to Ericj's recent update. That's a big platinum surge for the holidays.
3. Eric...will you be including the new bald eagle commemoratives in this group discussion?
Ren
<< <i>1. Last night I picked up a 2007 W $25 MS69 Platinum for about $393! That's less than $10 over spot and $56 less than the (un-slabbed) Mint offering! And that's for a coin where there are about 1,000+ singles.
2. 12-25-07's NN shows 2007 W unc plats @:
858
844
840
3092
2371
So the 1oz, 1/2, 1/4 increased by 297, 252, 178 respectively. And the 1/10 and 4-coin increased 71 and 188 respectively. These are compared to Ericj's recent update. That's a big platinum surge for the holidays.
3. Eric...will you be including the new bald eagle commemoratives in this group discussion?
Ren >>
Ren,
I have not looked into the Bald Eagle Commems yet. We need more data on them to cover the topic with any hope of being correct.
Also notice the single issue halves 2006-w Unc have sold almost twice last years likely numbers so I would expect to see most of the options inventory twice that of last year.........I hope this is not the case. I think the higher end of the range we were looking at previoulsy on this post is looking more likely.
I hope the mint sells out of halves and quarters soon around 1200 coins each. If not heaven help the 2007-w coins. Melt value in MS-69 will be their lot for years. With the mints new 1.5 million dollar minimum (roughly) purchase for bullion plats (eagle over the sun issues) I think we will see bullion sales volume bleading over to the Unc-w coins and the combined collector base plus bullion sales could hold the unc-w sales volumes over 4,000 coins a years for a very long time barring some serious outside influences.
2006 was a very good year and its looking better and better!
2006 vs. 2007
_________$100___$50___$25____$10
2006(w):...3,168...2,577.....2,676....3,544
2007(w):...3,714...3,655.....3,577....5,722
I think there's a good chance that 2008 w uncirculateds can continue the upward sales trend, especially if platinum gets more attention as a result of the reverse proof set.
Even if the Mint has a substantial inventory of unsold 2007 ws, I think sales will drop off until the 2008s come out.
Secondary market on the 2007 ws are not great at the moment- if you can pick them up for less than issue price, that doesn't bode well for the remaining Mint inventory.
I, for one, hope that the Mint stays with the plan of a 3 coin series for the (w) uncirculated coins.
Legislative, Executive, Judicial. That's good enough for me.
I would be very happy with a discrete 3 year set.
Design does impact sales. The Eagle and the Owl in next years reverse is fantastic and I think it will sell fine.
Ericj96
This is how the mint sales compare as of week 24 of sales for other years:
I bought my 2004 Proofs on 2/24/2005, and I believe that sales continued a few more weeks beyond that.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Had the mint let 2004 Eagles sell the whole year, 2005 would have been the key date.
I bought my 2004 Proofs on 2/24/2005, and I believe that sales continued a few more weeks beyond that. >>
Yeabut I don't think they were released until Sept 04.
That's right! First day was 9-16-2004 (week 0)...
I just have to say NeoStar, that's a mighty fine chart you've got there.
Thank you!
I just sent you a PM...
50,406.55
47,420.75
50,433.25
39,739.85
30,183.35
27,252.45
36,611.60
35,905.45 (to date)
I have some thoughts about this, but this data cannot be evaluated without context, which means that the average annual price of platinum associated with each of these data points ought to be considered as part of the same analysis.
I knew it would happen.
47,420.75
50,433.25
39,739.85
30,183.35
27,252.45
36,611.60
35,905.45 (to date)
Okay, okay - these are the total oz. of platinum sold, starting in 2000 through 2007. I left off years 1997-1999, but they would indeed show an even more pronounced trend.
My observation is that of declining sales in the face of rising prices for platinum. To address the issue, the Mint pulled out the Burnished "W" uncs in 2006, and followed up with the Burnished "W" uncs AND the Anniversary Set in 2007. It seems to have bolstered unit sales temporarily.
The real question mark is 2008. Somebody posted a recent quote from Director Moy where he referred to the Plats as something on the order of the Mint's premier product in the whole coinage program. Thus, it seems that he has further plans to support the Plats in as many ways as to keep collector (and speculator) interest running high.
Which brings me full circle back to ericj's remarks:
Well into next year thats for flat certain. Now one of the denominations might blink out but in general I think they will be for sale for a while. I bet the $100 coin sells to April 2008.
Its important to realize going forward the w uncs are going to act at least from time to time as substitute goods for the bullion coins with the eagle flying over the sun. The mints new policy of 1000 oz minimum orders for plat bullion (eagle over the sun)will discourage sales. 1.5 million is a serious minimum order at 4-15 percent over melt and is high risk. The market will more than likely go for 10 over melt for the changing reverse plats with no minimum order.....and a 30 day no questions asked return option. Bottom line is from now on I think we will see both the collector base and the bullion buyers picking up these coins and a higher mintage floor is the likely result going forward. The 2006-w is going to be a very deep key for a while.
Relatively cheap common dates put pressure on rare series back dates and it looks like given the structural changes the numbers in general are going to stay over 4,000 coins year in and year out until something major changes.
Now I see people getting all excited because the bullion -eagle over the sun plats are going to be low mintage this year. I say to them first off that they need to lower than 2006-w to have any hope in the unc set because the 2006-w sets the standard. Also with the 1.5 million min order next year we may find that very few dealers step up for that kind of hit and the mintages may fall even more. If thats the case the 2007 bullion with the eagle over the sun is melt for a very long time. If the mintages on the 2008 bullion plats falls to less than 2000 coins maybe they have a chance if you think the series will be collected by date and mint mark not design type like the old commems.
I think the bullion plats are in trouble longer term unless the mintages get REAL SMALL. A short term flipper spike likely will show up, its a question of how much jump and can the eagle over the sun coins hold the spike over melt three years later. The 1939 Arkansas halves with 2000 coin mintages have had 70 years and done nothing because the series is collected by type.
The anniversary set is a fantastic long term blessing to the proof halves. If they sell say 20,000 sets and just 1/20 buyers looks at the larger series mintage tables and decides the halves are rare and beautiful and worth chasing the key date 04 and 05 material would get tight. Where would one find 1000 2004 proof plat halves? If 20,000 sets sell the halves will see a 50 percent growth in total pops in one year! Common dates put pressure on back dates over time................................
It will be interesting to see how this will all play out.
I do suggest if you can for the 2007-w plats.................. now is the time to be very picky about what you hold.
If its very strong you may be glad to have it long term. Just don't pay high mark ups for it.
So, when I read through Eric's commentary, I see several cross-currents and I note the structural change that is happening in the distribution of bullion coins.
Will the regular issue bullion coins be squeezed out entirely, and if not, will the small trickle that remains represent a major opportunity, if they can be located at all?
Maybe the Mint has come to the realization that Plats are mainly a speculation for most people, and the only real way to build volume over time is to start catering to collectors in a serious way. If that is in fact the case, then Eric might be right all along in his assessment of the ways that collections are built - alternating short series having various themes on the reverses.
Frankly, I would welcome a planned, methodical approach to collecting Plats. As the Plat series has developed, it has been too helter-skelter (and expensive) to bother with collecting and much more productive only to focus on speculation. Speculation doesn't breed loyalty and prolonged interest. Collecting does.
I knew it would happen.
Frankly, I would welcome a planned, methodical approach to collecting Plats. As the Plat series has developed, it has been too helter-skelter (and expensive) to bother with collecting and much more productive only to focus on speculation. Speculation doesn't breed loyalty and prolonged interest. Collecting does.
Very well put! Happy New Year to all!!!
$100...1277
$50....1140
$25....1081
$10....3244 *on hold for packaging
4 coin set 2748 ** sold out for the year!
Miles pointed out that the 4 coin set has not only died but gone into the retro listings bone yard on the mints web site.
GOLD:
I think the 2007-w unc gold eagles may be done for the year but I just don't know if 10000-12000 mintage range is low enough to make them enduring semi keys or not. The 2006-w gold has an effective mintage of about 11,000 quarters and halves but thats good for just over melt. So its not clear to me at least that the 2007-w gold is going to be a killer.