That is a wonderful analogy regarding the 1916-D dime and First Strike designation. All of those dimes were struck at the end of the year, so to me there is no value add. However, that does not mean someone would not pay more for it. Never doubt the power of marketing, especially to newcomers.
One more thought on Plats. It appears the prices for the 2006-W $100 coin are really soft right now. Platinum prices are through the roof ($1,454 on Kitco as I type) yet two of these PCGS MS69 coins sold for $1,731 and $1,838 respectively on eBay in the last few days.
Are there opportunities right now to pick up potential home runs or has the market softened for this coin? The lower sale is roughly 20 percent over melt! I think it is a buying opportunity myself, but I am curious as to others thoughts. >>
I think this is definitely a buying opportunity if you've got the cash. I am holding to buy the anniversary set so am not taking advantage, but if I had more liquidity, definitely.
Ozzy - You have a couple of neat coins there. It is really up to you which venue to utilize - with ebay there is a lot of work (especially with the new rules). Wth TT - less work With TT - more fees. With ebay - less fees (if coin actualy sells).
Deepcoin - Interesting story...
Back in early 06, the 2005 $100 MS Plat was the lowest mintage MS Plat coin in any denomination ever produced by the US Mint - what about 6,000 coins? A board member I do a lot of business with asked me if he should buy a 25 coin position that had become available for about $25/oz over spot WITH FIRST STRIKE LABELS as an added bonus (first year of First Strike). I told him there were basically 2 ways to win - #1 - collector base develops and demand is created for the mintage 6,000 coin (and/or the First Strike label); #2 platinum rises. One way to lose - Platinum drops.
Earlier this week - collector and I talk - so what has happened since 1st quarter 2006 (18 months or so later)?
1. 6,000 mintage for an MS plat bullion coin means "diddley" 2. No collectors came by in past 18 months to make the coin collectible either as a "first strike" coin or a dated coin with a 6,000 mintage. 3. Plat spot rose about $325/oz - translating to a near 30% return over the past 18 months. Collector told me to sell off the position next week at a couple % over spot if possible - hence, First Strike (even first year of FS) still means nothing and low mintage of 6,000 means nothing. Yet, collector did great with the play.
So, you ask about 2006-W $100 coins: Same answer I gave collector 18 months ago - IMHO - 2 ways to win and one way to lose (and $325/oz more to lose now than 18 months ago). Right?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
My 'racing form" comments in bold (just my 2 cents):
2004 proof plat - 5000 - WHAT POTENTIAL ON THIS COIN !!
With the price of this coin, and all of the coins from the 2004 Plat. Proof set being so high, is continued appreciation really that likely? Obviously plat spot prices are very high now, and can drop. Do you think that the numismatic value of this set is such that it is not very dependant on spot plat. price? I;e., if one has the $, are the 2004s a good investment now? Thanks for any thoughts.
Raufus - Even though the $50 coin sports the lowest mintage in the 04 Proof Plat set, the $100 is currently the "King" of the set from a value stand point- selling for a solid 50% premium to the $50 coin. Hence, my comment about the "potential" on the $50 coin, especially if folks start to increasingly collect these sets.
I have not seen a significant corrolation between spot Plat and pricing on the 04 Proof Plat set. Except that - all Proof Plat sets are now worth about $2,700 melt. That figure used to be closer to $2,000 a short while ago. If the melt value continues to advance sharply from here on generic sets, I could see an argument that 04 key year pricing could rise due to maintaining a meaningful spread between being the key set and what a common set melts at.
Wondercoin
P.S. - There was just a thread concerning that 1999-S Silver DEL NGC-70 quarter that fetched about $4,500 on ebay. With a mintage of what - 800,000? So, how pricey does an 04 Proof 4-pc Plat set really look at about the cost of 1 1/2 -2 PR70NGC Del quarters?? You tell me.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The Mint only mints what they have orders for ("mint" includes the distribution) and if the price is so high that only idiots like me are willing to spend their retirement on them then the low mintage will be worth the divorce.
The one thing the old farts don't get is that with the population explosion there is also a collector explosion. With more coinage changes in the last 20 years than in the 200 before we are seeing all kinds of new collectors from the basic collector that is happy to have filled their "book" with whatever to the anal b@stards like me that insist on at least getting it PCGS graded (duh! What else?).
With that said I absolutely deplore the whole 1st Spouse coin concept. The Presidents are in manganese and their wives get .999 gold. PLEASE! The problem is that this series is going to be sought after both from a numismatic standpoint and a female standpoint so it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later.
Griv, it's alot smoother if you just get the divorce first, in my opinion. I agree with your statements about the spouses, too. I deplore the groveling and pandering of the Mint these days, and sure 'nuf, all this mis-management will result in some rare coins someday.
Regarding the Plat Anniversary Set - don't look now, but the 2007 $50 Proof mintage is down, probably because of the buzz surrounding the Anniversary Set. If they don't release the set, look out for the 1/2 ozer Proof!!
As for Special Labels, I just can't get excited about a slab label being worth a premium. Maybe for some, but not for me - there's just too many other factors driving up the cost of these coins without having to worry about a label, especially if the coin is high grade anyway.
Yeah, it's nice to have a professional pair of eyes look at the coin, but without verification that the label is what it implies that it is, forget it - count me out. I like hard data, mintages and grade, that's it - but don't let me ruin the fun for the rest of you. I'm almost more inclined to sell the 70s and buy more 69s with them.
I just updated my tables for the 2007 Gold and Platinum Mintages. Here's what I see on the face of it:
Based on the current data, for the entire American Gold Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 14 "keys", and 10 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. The primary contributing factors to this phenomenon are the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the "Anniversary Sets."
I see the Mint raping collectors who have worked on their collections for over 20 years, and are now being forced to buy more coins in order not to be "left behind." It's truly unconscionable, but the Mint did the same thing in 1995, with the Anniversary Set then, too.
The Plat Series is in even worse shape. Based on the current data, for the entire American Platinum Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 19 "keys", and 15 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. In this case, the primary contributing factor to this phenomenon is the drop in orders for the regular issue Uncs and Proofs (a dilution factor, if you will), due to the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the Anniversary Set isn't even factored in, yet.
What does this data imply? Obviously, considering the proliferation of varieties and the rising cost of the base metal, the costs of maintaining a set continues to escalate. Thus far, it's been a good investment simply because of the meteoric rise in platinum prices, as Mitch pointed out.
While there is a certain amount of collector attrition that must occur due to the pricing as the sets become more unaffordable, the rising prices will no doubt also attract new blood and more well-heeled collectors/investors. Even so, I believe that we are approaching a time when the value of the base metal will constitute the bulk of the value in the coins, simply because the market for so many expensive specialty coins can't exist indefinitely - there won't be enough collectors, with enough money - to sustain demand.
I believe that at some point, the premiums for the highest graded First Strike will approach melt. Since the melt price for platinum is skyrocketing, it won't really be a big deal. (In 1980 for example, a nice Walker Half that was worth maybe $5.00 a few years earlier was suddenly worth $15.00 - it was worth more dead than alive, and it wasn't worth saving! (Back then, $15.00 was actually money!) I see something similar happening with Plats.
Eventually, the Mint's incentive for producing scads of new issues will subside, because elevated prices and the disappearance of collector premiums will cause the Mint's business to drop below the point where producing so many low mintage issues is profitable.
**Which brings me full circle** - back to the point that Griv just made about the Spouses - "it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later." Unfortunately, this applies to the current batch of manufactured rarities.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Actually, my answer was a "10th Anniversary First Strike" slab - just as we saw with the 3-pc Gold Anniv set - making the regular DCAM gold coin the key to the series at this point in "70" grade! These coins, even today, trade around $6,500 - $7,500, while the low mintage Rev Proof 70 Gold only fetches $4,000 - $5,250.
True, but the high price of the DCAM gold proof might encourage a huge number of platinum set submissions for the "10th Anniversary First Strike" designation. Too many 70s could reduce the premium for this coin.
One more thought on Plats. It appears the prices for the 2006-W $100 coin are really soft right now. Platinum prices are through the roof ($1,454 on Kitco as I type) yet two of these PCGS MS69 coins sold for $1,731 and $1,838 respectively on eBay in the last few days.
Are there opportunities right now to pick up potential home runs or has the market softened for this coin? The lower sale is roughly 20 percent over melt! I think it is a buying opportunity myself, but I am curious as to others thoughts.
To some extent, the higher platinum price might actually be reducing the number of collectors of the series, especially the high denominations, due to affordability. This would translate to a lower premium over melt.
I think that the relatively higher platinum mintages of the earlier years (both bullion and proof) were in large part due to the lower price of platinum at the time, compared to today.
Price Update, my 4-coin 2005 Platinum Proof set sold last night for $5,123.00 and my 4-coin 2006 Platinum Proof Set went for $2,900.00. Both were in the original packaging and were uncertified. The trend for Proof Plats appears to be up.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Using examples of the high mintage 1997 & 2000 W Proof Plats or any early year proof set for that matter, I wonder what would the melt 'casualty rate' really be?
How easy is it for these sets to be scooped up and melted. What commercial outfit does this or would be a leader of this type of buying?
Say Platinum gets past and goes $1,500 & higher, would one expect 10%? 20%?.
I am sure the BU's would take a pretty good hit, first.
Coinboy - I am not sure, but, interestingly, a board member sent me off a sizeable pile of misc. Gold $5 and $10 Commems to sell off, which I did to my bullion contact today. He made a comment to me (if I understood him correctly) that the slabbed material was about $1/coin less than the capsules I was shipping him, because he had to crack them out of the holders before sending them off to be melted.
It's already happening / happened?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I think one per household is the Mints new thing now, I think this is a given.
10,000 is WAYYYY to many. I'm a buyer no matter what, but it needs to be 5000, in order for it to have legs.
You can't compare the Gold Anniv. Set sell out, because the limit was TEN. How long would it have taken to sell out at one per household ?? Fast I'm sure, but obviously not as fast.
The one per, is a big deal. Look at the Liberty Unc. it came back on line, so we could say it took a month to sell out 20,000, and this was the HOT coin. Also, it took many month's to sell out the Silver Anniv. Set because of the household limit.
With a MUCH smaller collector base for Platinum than for Silver and Gold Eagles, 5000 is what the mintage should be.
<< <i>The Mint only mints what they have orders for ("mint" includes the distribution) and if the price is so high that only idiots like me are willing to spend their retirement on them then the low mintage will be worth the divorce.
The one thing the old farts don't get is that with the population explosion there is also a collector explosion. With more coinage changes in the last 20 years than in the 200 before we are seeing all kinds of new collectors from the basic collector that is happy to have filled their "book" with whatever to the anal b@stards like me that insist on at least getting it PCGS graded (duh! What else?).
With that said I absolutely deplore the whole 1st Spouse coin concept. The Presidents are in manganese and their wives get .999 gold. PLEASE! The problem is that this series is going to be sought after both from a numismatic standpoint and a female standpoint so it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later.
Griv, it's alot smoother if you just get the divorce first, in my opinion. I agree with your statements about the spouses, too. I deplore the groveling and pandering of the Mint these days, and sure 'nuf, all this mis-management will result in some rare coins someday.
Regarding the Plat Anniversary Set - don't look now, but the 2007 $50 Proof mintage is down, probably because of the buzz surrounding the Anniversary Set. If they don't release the set, look out for the 1/2 ozer Proof!!
As for Special Labels, I just can't get excited about a slab label being worth a premium. Maybe for some, but not for me - there's just too many other factors driving up the cost of these coins without having to worry about a label, especially if the coin is high grade anyway.
Yeah, it's nice to have a professional pair of eyes look at the coin, but without verification that the label is what it implies that it is, forget it - count me out. I like hard data, mintages and grade, that's it - but don't let me ruin the fun for the rest of you. I'm almost more inclined to sell the 70s and buy more 69s with them.
I just updated my tables for the 2007 Gold and Platinum Mintages. Here's what I see on the face of it:
Based on the current data, for the entire American Gold Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 14 "keys", and 10 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. The primary contributing factors to this phenomenon are the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the "Anniversary Sets."
I see the Mint raping collectors who have worked on their collections for over 20 years, and are now being forced to buy more coins in order not to be "left behind." It's truly unconscionable, but the Mint did the same thing in 1995, with the Anniversary Set then, too.
The Plat Series is in even worse shape. Based on the current data, for the entire American Platinum Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 19 "keys", and 15 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. In this case, the primary contributing factor to this phenomenon is the drop in orders for the regular issue Uncs and Proofs (a dilution factor, if you will), due to the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the Anniversary Set isn't even factored in, yet.
What does this data imply? Obviously, considering the proliferation of varieties and the rising cost of the base metal, the costs of maintaining a set continues to escalate. Thus far, it's been a good investment simply because of the meteoric rise in platinum prices, as Mitch pointed out.
While there is a certain amount of collector attrition that must occur due to the pricing as the sets become more unaffordable, the rising prices will no doubt also attract new blood and more well-heeled collectors/investors. Even so, I believe that we are approaching a time when the value of the base metal will constitute the bulk of the value in the coins, simply because the market for so many expensive specialty coins can't exist indefinitely - there won't be enough collectors, with enough money - to sustain demand.
I believe that at some point, the premiums for the highest graded First Strike will approach melt. Since the melt price for platinum is skyrocketing, it won't really be a big deal. (In 1980 for example, a nice Walker Half that was worth maybe $5.00 a few years earlier was suddenly worth $15.00 - it was worth more dead than alive, and it wasn't worth saving! (Back then, $15.00 was actually money!) I see something similar happening with Plats.
Eventually, the Mint's incentive for producing scads of new issues will subside, because elevated prices and the disappearance of collector premiums will cause the Mint's business to drop below the point where producing so many low mintage issues is profitable.
**Which brings me full circle** - back to the point that Griv just made about the Spouses - "it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later." Unfortunately, this applies to the current batch of manufactured rarities. >>
* * * * I agree with all that but with a few comments:
Collectors many start to not worry about collecting all 4 denominations in proof and Mint State finishes be it platinum or gold. I think we will see people just picking a denomination in mint state or proof and just running with it. That way you can complete your sets without spending a fortune. Complete sets of gold eagle quarters and changing reverse plats look like this:
1997-2007 changing reverse $25 proof platinum eagles in MS-69 or raw costs about $5800 amd it will "only" cost about $500 a year to keep current even if material costs rise to $1750 per oz. Even now the changing reverse plats are a great value compared to the cost of finishing a set of old gold in any denomination. A complete 25 pc gold MS eagle quarter set is cheap too at $6500 compared to any old gold series. Complete multi-denominational sets in cameo proof and MS grades for old gold cost tens of millions so we are in the right place if we want good material "cheap".
The mints product offerings are too broad but it distracts the flippers in many cases. This is not the first time we have seen the mint issue to many coins for too much money. The question for us is where do we need to be spending our coin money so the sets we hold will have a good chance of being great.
I think one per household is the Mints new thing now, I think this is a given.
10,000 is WAYYYY to many. I'm a buyer no matter what, but it needs to be 5000, in order for it to have legs.
You can't compare the Gold Anniv. Set sell out, because the limit was TEN. How long would it have taken to sell out at one per household ?? Fast I'm sure, but obviously not as fast.
The one per, is a big deal. Look at the Liberty Unc. it came back on line, so we could say it took a month to sell out 20,000, and this was the HOT coin. Also, it took many month's to sell out the Silver Anniv. Set because of the household limit.
With a MUCH smaller collector base for Platinum than for Silver and Gold Eagles, 5000 is what the mintage should be. >>
************ * Agreed it would be nice to come in at 5,000 but have not seen or heard anything that indicates the mint is thinking about setting the limit so low. Even the members of this board by and large have little (maybe no) doubt that the mint can sell 10,000 sets with NO problem and they are in the business to sell coins.
The annual platinum proof sets routinely outsell any of the individual coin options. To me, this implies that there is a core group of affluent collectors willing and able to acquire complete 4-denomination platinum sets, without unduly worrying about the expense.
Of the singles, the best selling coin is the one-tenth ounce, which falls within the budget of the widest group of collectors. The next best selling coin is the one ounce, the largest coin and the one which best shows off the design.
The in-between single coins, quarter ounce and half ounce, typically have the the lowest mintage and presumably the lowest demand. I would guess that the primary attractions of these sizes are a decent overall compromise between affordability and size, along with the low mintage itself.
Sets can be broken up to accommodate demand for individual coins, but there are two limiting factors to this practice. First, most collectors who can afford 4-coin sets probably have no financial need to break them up and sell them. Second, many collectors of individual denominations will want the original single-coin packaging, which is not available with broken-up sets.
So for those considering collecting single-denomination platinum proof (and W-uncirculated) coins, the number available is probably considerably lower than the mintage numbers would suggest - especially for collectors of one-fourth and one-half ounce coins who want original single-coin mint packaging to accompany their coins.
Collectors many start to not worry about collecting all 4 denominations in proof and Mint State finishes be it platinum or gold **** Exactly what I do with the platinum series. Too much moola to collect them in the $50 and $100 denominations. I am happy with collecting only the $10 and $25 options. Proof and uncirculated w's only , the direct to dealer bullion uncirculated have dropped off my list completely. And at the rate platinum is climbing the $25's might stop after '08 I wish the mint would swith to palladium so I could afford to collect the entire run each year.
I collected the 1/10 Proofs ounce the last 5 years, Oh I have others but the 1/10 ounce is all I make sure I buy. I've started the 1/4 on the UNC W's and I think this is the way most collect. The 4 piece sets sell quite a bit but I'd venture a guess that it is more to a collector that wants to sell a few coins and try to either "cherry" pick the 70's and flip the rest or get a free coin. I think an awful lot of 4 piece sets are broken up to flip.
For many of us that were late to the party is easier to just stick to one denomination. To me, the $25s are the ticket. They are big enough to see and not as expensive in high grade as the bigger denominations. The W UNCs I collect in all denominations since I was there from the beginning.
This is a great thread with a lot of valuable information. I am absolutely bullish on the eagle series and I love the changing reverse of the plat proof and Ws as I think that is the most exciting thing in the Eagle series. While I understand the desire for a "stable/stale" series I think that after 25 years the Mint should begin to change the reverses of the gold eagles with each new year. This in many ways adds to the excitement of building sets and the more collectors the merrier if you ask me. To look at the series as a whole there is a lot of room here if you ask me. Looking at the PCGS Registry the completion of the series even after 21 years seems to be elusive. Just look at the complete sets to get a benchmark as to how hard this series is to collect.
Gold Eagles Complete Set with First StrikesTM (1986-present).......1 complete set Gold Eagles Complete Set (1986-present).......................................2 complete sets Gold Eagles Complete Set, Circulation Strikes (1986-present).........4 complete sets Gold Eagles Complete Set, Proof (1986-present).............................9 complete sets
I just collect what I can afford. I would like the platinum 3 branches of government coins for my long term collection. Preferably with the W mint mark and one ounce of each. Along the way, I like a few of the gold commemoratives. I still haven't bought one of them Gold buffalo coins. It's amazing how much the price of metals go up. Being in the metal business I see it from job to job.
<< <i>If there was a 1916-D Dime (one of the keys to the series) and the coin had been preserved in a manner that, without question, it could be shown that the coin was produced in the first 30 days of the year 1916 - would that coin have any added value when it was being sold along side equally graded 1916-D dimes without such documentation? >>
Interesting yes; value added questionable unless there was an interesting provenance involved.
I daresay that the original packaging that came along with the coin meaning, the exact date the coin was shipped (the USPS and Fed Ex boxes) and the original US Mint packaging along with the coin would add far more to the value of the coin than the (early) date itself the coin was shipped.
Do not forget, the original pamphlet from the US Mint would also be a value added item to the buyers acquistion of such coin.
I know its badly off topic but if any of you would like to buy a 1996 Proof Gold Britannia 4 coin proof set with the 100, 50, 25 and 10 pound gold issues in them let me know. They have a tiny mintage of 483 coins. They show Britannia with a shield and rose in on hand and a trident in the other while she stands on a rock off the coast. SO Lovely. I have two sets and have decided to sell one at melt plus 15 percent = $1765.
Check out TAX FREE GOLD on google and click on Brittannia 4 coin sets to learn about them.
Thats great I hope its done or close to it. If so the 07-w coins will be good coins. Not great but good. Excellent quality may be VERY important this year esp. for the large denomination unc-w coins.
The unc-W Gold coins have been unavailable from the Mint for two or three weeks now. The sales figures for the half- and qtr-oz coins (for example) are one-third less than the 06-Ws.
It would appear that the 07-W golds are the new key in this two-year series by a significant margin, and that a 10k mintage is meaningful when compared to the collector base.
So where's the excitement? Ebay prices realized are practically at issue price.
The unc-W Gold coins have been unavailable from the Mint for two or three weeks now. The sales figures for the half- and qtr-oz coins (for example) are one-third less than the 06-Ws.
It would appear that the 07-W golds are the new key in this two-year series by a significant margin, and that a 10k mintage is meaningful when compared to the collector base.
So where's the excitement? Ebay prices realized are practically at issue price. >>
Where is the excitement anywhere? Seems people must be saving up their money for christmas and tax bills. Also, the mint can still sell some more and stab the collector in the back again.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Making the assumption the 4 coin set number is correct at 2777, would mean there are only 726 singles, which would be 300 less than whats been reported for the past few weeks.
Not to mention returns of crappy coins being accounted for. I myself have returned 3 for keeping one. I think proof and Uncs will be semi key this year. Especially if platinum prices weaken further (makes for way overpriced coins at current pricing). Also I am skeptical about the reverse proof rumor. Obviously it has steered buyers away from proofs, and with 3 types of platinum to choose from already it would be sheer overkill to offer another. The only way I can swallow the reverse proof idea is if they needed to move unsold proof inventory...which would sell itself if it appears to be semi key past mid December.
The unc-W Gold coins have been unavailable from the Mint for two or three weeks now. The sales figures for the half- and qtr-oz coins (for example) are one-third less than the 06-Ws.
It would appear that the 07-W golds are the new key in this two-year series by a significant margin, and that a 10k mintage is meaningful when compared to the collector base.
So where's the excitement? Ebay prices realized are practically at issue price. >>
The mint sold the 2006 w 4 coins sets until mar/apr of 2007 and if I remember correctly at this stage (mid Nov) the numbers of the 06 w were way lower that current numbers for the 07s....so it is all in the hands of the mint
<< <i>The mint sold the 2006 w 4 coins sets until mar/apr of 2007 and if I remember correctly at this stage (mid Nov) the numbers of the 06 w were way lower that current numbers for the 07s....so it is all in the hands of the mint >>
The gold 06-ws did indeed sell into 2006; January, IIRC. (I bought several.) The difference is that 06-W gold sales did not take a break as they are doing here. What if the Mint has sold off their first 07-w run, and doesn't see an easy means to an end of selling a second run, minted in these last several weeks of the year?
Nevertheless, it seems that everyone is taking the cautious attitude as coinboy is here.
Whatever happens, I think it will be hard for me to lose money on these 07-W golds. Current bullion values already cover 95% of my cost (and would be even more favorable if I was smart enough to order when the full oz was $750).
My understanding is that bullion coin sales totals for a given year may not match the mintage totals with that year's date.
The numbers I have recorded for the regular (non-W) 2006 Uncs are:
1/10th oz. - 11,001
1/4th oz. - 12,001
1/2th oz. - 9,602
1 oz. - 6,000
I'm not even sure where I got these numbers - probably either Coin World or this forum.
The sales data on the Mint Website is not representative of the actual mintages - only the sales for the given time periods. It seems that some of each year's January sales numbers might include a percentage of coins from the previous year.
As an example, I once ordered a full roll of new 2000 1/4th ozers, and when I received it in January of 2000, it had a couple of 1999s.
As I recall, in some years, the Mint parcels out the previous year's coins to it's distributors when they order the new year's production, until the old ones are all gone.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
<< <i>Mitch,
That is a wonderful analogy regarding the 1916-D dime and First Strike designation. All of those dimes were struck at the end of the year, so to me there is no value add. However, that does not mean someone would not pay more for it. Never doubt the power of marketing, especially to newcomers.
One more thought on Plats. It appears the prices for the 2006-W $100 coin are really soft right now. Platinum prices are through the roof ($1,454 on Kitco as I type) yet two of these PCGS MS69 coins sold for $1,731 and $1,838 respectively on eBay in the last few days.
Are there opportunities right now to pick up potential home runs or has the market softened for this coin? The lower sale is roughly 20 percent over melt! I think it is a buying opportunity myself, but I am curious as to others thoughts. >>
I think this is definitely a buying opportunity if you've got the cash. I am holding to buy the anniversary set so am not taking advantage, but if I had more liquidity, definitely.
Deepcoin - Interesting story...
Back in early 06, the 2005 $100 MS Plat was the lowest mintage MS Plat coin in any denomination ever produced by the US Mint - what about 6,000 coins? A board member I do a lot of business with asked me if he should buy a 25 coin position that had become available for about $25/oz over spot WITH FIRST STRIKE LABELS as an added bonus (first year of First Strike). I told him there were basically 2 ways to win - #1 - collector base develops and demand is created for the mintage 6,000 coin (and/or the First Strike label); #2 platinum rises. One way to lose - Platinum drops.
Earlier this week - collector and I talk - so what has happened since 1st quarter 2006 (18 months or so later)?
1. 6,000 mintage for an MS plat bullion coin means "diddley"
2. No collectors came by in past 18 months to make the coin collectible either as a "first strike" coin or a dated coin with a 6,000 mintage.
3. Plat spot rose about $325/oz - translating to a near 30% return over the past 18 months. Collector told me to sell off the position next week at a couple % over spot if possible - hence, First Strike (even first year of FS) still means nothing and low mintage of 6,000 means nothing. Yet, collector did great with the play.
So, you ask about 2006-W $100 coins: Same answer I gave collector 18 months ago - IMHO - 2 ways to win and one way to lose (and $325/oz more to lose now than 18 months ago). Right?
Wondercoin
My 'racing form" comments in bold (just my 2 cents):
2004 proof plat - 5000 - WHAT POTENTIAL ON THIS COIN !!
With the price of this coin, and all of the coins from the 2004 Plat. Proof set being so high, is continued appreciation really that likely? Obviously plat spot prices are very high now, and can drop. Do you think that the numismatic value of this set is such that it is not very dependant on spot plat. price? I;e., if one has the $, are the 2004s a good investment now? Thanks for any thoughts.
I have not seen a significant corrolation between spot Plat and pricing on the 04 Proof Plat set. Except that - all Proof Plat sets are now worth about $2,700 melt. That figure used to be closer to $2,000 a short while ago. If the melt value continues to advance sharply from here on generic sets, I could see an argument that 04 key year pricing could rise due to maintaining a meaningful spread between being the key set and what a common set melts at.
Wondercoin
P.S. - There was just a thread concerning that 1999-S Silver DEL NGC-70 quarter that fetched about $4,500 on ebay. With a mintage of what - 800,000? So, how pricey does an 04 Proof 4-pc Plat set really look at about the cost of 1 1/2 -2 PR70NGC Del quarters?? You tell me.
The one thing the old farts don't get is that with the population explosion there is also a collector explosion. With more coinage changes in the last 20 years than in the 200 before we are seeing all kinds of new collectors from the basic collector that is happy to have filled their "book" with whatever to the anal b@stards like me that insist on at least getting it PCGS graded (duh! What else?).
With that said I absolutely deplore the whole 1st Spouse coin concept. The Presidents are in manganese and their wives get .999 gold. PLEASE! The problem is that this series is going to be sought after both from a numismatic standpoint and a female standpoint so it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later.
Griv, it's alot smoother if you just get the divorce first, in my opinion.
Regarding the Plat Anniversary Set - don't look now, but the 2007 $50 Proof mintage is down, probably because of the buzz surrounding the Anniversary Set. If they don't release the set, look out for the 1/2 ozer Proof!!
As for Special Labels, I just can't get excited about a slab label being worth a premium. Maybe for some, but not for me - there's just too many other factors driving up the cost of these coins without having to worry about a label, especially if the coin is high grade anyway.
Yeah, it's nice to have a professional pair of eyes look at the coin, but without verification that the label is what it implies that it is, forget it - count me out. I like hard data, mintages and grade, that's it - but don't let me ruin the fun for the rest of you. I'm almost more inclined to sell the 70s and buy more 69s with them.
I just updated my tables for the 2007 Gold and Platinum Mintages. Here's what I see on the face of it:
Based on the current data, for the entire American Gold Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 14 "keys", and 10 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. The primary contributing factors to this phenomenon are the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the "Anniversary Sets."
I see the Mint raping collectors who have worked on their collections for over 20 years, and are now being forced to buy more coins in order not to be "left behind." It's truly unconscionable, but the Mint did the same thing in 1995, with the Anniversary Set then, too.
The Plat Series is in even worse shape. Based on the current data, for the entire American Platinum Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 19 "keys", and 15 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. In this case, the primary contributing factor to this phenomenon is the drop in orders for the regular issue Uncs and Proofs (a dilution factor, if you will), due to the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the Anniversary Set isn't even factored in, yet.
What does this data imply? Obviously, considering the proliferation of varieties and the rising cost of the base metal, the costs of maintaining a set continues to escalate. Thus far, it's been a good investment simply because of the meteoric rise in platinum prices, as Mitch pointed out.
While there is a certain amount of collector attrition that must occur due to the pricing as the sets become more unaffordable, the rising prices will no doubt also attract new blood and more well-heeled collectors/investors. Even so, I believe that we are approaching a time when the value of the base metal will constitute the bulk of the value in the coins, simply because the market for so many expensive specialty coins can't exist indefinitely - there won't be enough collectors, with enough money - to sustain demand.
I believe that at some point, the premiums for the highest graded First Strike will approach melt. Since the melt price for platinum is skyrocketing, it won't really be a big deal. (In 1980 for example, a nice Walker Half that was worth maybe $5.00 a few years earlier was suddenly worth $15.00 - it was worth more dead than alive, and it wasn't worth saving! (Back then, $15.00 was actually money!) I see something similar happening with Plats.
Eventually, the Mint's incentive for producing scads of new issues will subside, because elevated prices and the disappearance of collector premiums will cause the Mint's business to drop below the point where producing so many low mintage issues is profitable.
**Which brings me full circle** - back to the point that Griv just made about the Spouses - "it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later." Unfortunately, this applies to the current batch of manufactured rarities.
I knew it would happen.
Actually, my answer was a "10th Anniversary First Strike" slab - just as we saw with the 3-pc Gold Anniv set - making the regular DCAM gold coin the key to the series at this point in "70" grade! These coins, even today, trade around $6,500 - $7,500, while the low mintage Rev Proof 70 Gold only fetches $4,000 - $5,250.
True, but the high price of the DCAM gold proof might encourage a huge number of platinum set submissions for the "10th Anniversary First Strike" designation. Too many 70s could reduce the premium for this coin.
One more thought on Plats. It appears the prices for the 2006-W $100 coin are really soft right now. Platinum prices are through the roof ($1,454 on Kitco as I type) yet two of these PCGS MS69 coins sold for $1,731 and $1,838 respectively on eBay in the last few days.
Are there opportunities right now to pick up potential home runs or has the market softened for this coin? The lower sale is roughly 20 percent over melt! I think it is a buying opportunity myself, but I am curious as to others thoughts.
To some extent, the higher platinum price might actually be reducing the number of collectors of the series, especially the high denominations, due to affordability. This would translate to a lower premium over melt.
I think that the relatively higher platinum mintages of the earlier years (both bullion and proof) were in large part due to the lower price of platinum at the time, compared to today.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I knew it would happen.
Using examples of the high mintage 1997 & 2000 W Proof Plats or any early year proof set for that matter, I wonder what would the melt 'casualty rate' really be?
How easy is it for these sets to be scooped up and melted. What commercial outfit does this or would be a leader of this type of buying?
Say Platinum gets past and goes $1,500 & higher, would one expect 10%? 20%?.
I am sure the BU's would take a pretty good hit, first.
It's already happening / happened?
Wondercoin
Concerning the Anniv. Set:
I think one per household is the Mints new thing now, I think this is a given.
10,000 is WAYYYY to many. I'm a buyer no matter what, but it needs to be 5000, in order for it to have legs.
You can't compare the Gold Anniv. Set sell out, because the limit was TEN. How long would it have taken to sell out at one per household ?? Fast I'm sure, but obviously not as fast.
The one per, is a big deal. Look at the Liberty Unc. it came back on line, so we could say it took a month to sell out 20,000, and this was the HOT coin. Also, it took many month's to sell out the Silver Anniv. Set because of the household limit.
With a MUCH smaller collector base for Platinum than for Silver and Gold Eagles, 5000 is what the mintage should be.
<< <i>The Mint only mints what they have orders for ("mint" includes the distribution) and if the price is so high that only idiots like me are willing to spend their retirement on them then the low mintage will be worth the divorce.
The one thing the old farts don't get is that with the population explosion there is also a collector explosion. With more coinage changes in the last 20 years than in the 200 before we are seeing all kinds of new collectors from the basic collector that is happy to have filled their "book" with whatever to the anal b@stards like me that insist on at least getting it PCGS graded (duh! What else?).
With that said I absolutely deplore the whole 1st Spouse coin concept. The Presidents are in manganese and their wives get .999 gold. PLEASE! The problem is that this series is going to be sought after both from a numismatic standpoint and a female standpoint so it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later.
Griv, it's alot smoother if you just get the divorce first, in my opinion.
Regarding the Plat Anniversary Set - don't look now, but the 2007 $50 Proof mintage is down, probably because of the buzz surrounding the Anniversary Set. If they don't release the set, look out for the 1/2 ozer Proof!!
As for Special Labels, I just can't get excited about a slab label being worth a premium. Maybe for some, but not for me - there's just too many other factors driving up the cost of these coins without having to worry about a label, especially if the coin is high grade anyway.
Yeah, it's nice to have a professional pair of eyes look at the coin, but without verification that the label is what it implies that it is, forget it - count me out. I like hard data, mintages and grade, that's it - but don't let me ruin the fun for the rest of you. I'm almost more inclined to sell the 70s and buy more 69s with them.
I just updated my tables for the 2007 Gold and Platinum Mintages. Here's what I see on the face of it:
Based on the current data, for the entire American Gold Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 14 "keys", and 10 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. The primary contributing factors to this phenomenon are the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the "Anniversary Sets."
I see the Mint raping collectors who have worked on their collections for over 20 years, and are now being forced to buy more coins in order not to be "left behind." It's truly unconscionable, but the Mint did the same thing in 1995, with the Anniversary Set then, too.
The Plat Series is in even worse shape. Based on the current data, for the entire American Platinum Eagle Series, I can designate a total of 19 "keys", and 15 of them were minted in either 2006 or 2007. In this case, the primary contributing factor to this phenomenon is the drop in orders for the regular issue Uncs and Proofs (a dilution factor, if you will), due to the addition of the Burnished "W" Uncs, and the Anniversary Set isn't even factored in, yet.
What does this data imply? Obviously, considering the proliferation of varieties and the rising cost of the base metal, the costs of maintaining a set continues to escalate. Thus far, it's been a good investment simply because of the meteoric rise in platinum prices, as Mitch pointed out.
While there is a certain amount of collector attrition that must occur due to the pricing as the sets become more unaffordable, the rising prices will no doubt also attract new blood and more well-heeled collectors/investors. Even so, I believe that we are approaching a time when the value of the base metal will constitute the bulk of the value in the coins, simply because the market for so many expensive specialty coins can't exist indefinitely - there won't be enough collectors, with enough money - to sustain demand.
I believe that at some point, the premiums for the highest graded First Strike will approach melt. Since the melt price for platinum is skyrocketing, it won't really be a big deal. (In 1980 for example, a nice Walker Half that was worth maybe $5.00 a few years earlier was suddenly worth $15.00 - it was worth more dead than alive, and it wasn't worth saving! (Back then, $15.00 was actually money!) I see something similar happening with Plats.
Eventually, the Mint's incentive for producing scads of new issues will subside, because elevated prices and the disappearance of collector premiums will cause the Mint's business to drop below the point where producing so many low mintage issues is profitable.
**Which brings me full circle** - back to the point that Griv just made about the Spouses - "it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later." Unfortunately, this applies to the current batch of manufactured rarities. >>
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I agree with all that but with a few comments:
Collectors many start to not worry about collecting all 4 denominations in proof and Mint State finishes be it platinum or gold. I think we will see people just picking a denomination in mint state or proof and just running with it. That way you can complete your sets without spending a fortune. Complete sets of gold eagle quarters and changing reverse plats look like this:
1997-2007 changing reverse $25 proof platinum eagles in MS-69 or raw costs about $5800 amd it will "only" cost about $500 a year to keep current even if material costs rise to $1750 per oz. Even now the changing reverse plats are a great value compared to the cost of finishing a set of old gold in any denomination. A complete 25 pc gold MS eagle quarter set is cheap too at $6500 compared to any old gold series. Complete multi-denominational sets in cameo proof and MS grades for old gold cost tens of millions so we are in the right place if we want good material "cheap".
The mints product offerings are too broad but it distracts the flippers in many cases. This is not the first time we have seen the mint issue to many coins for too much money. The question for us is where do we need to be spending our coin money so the sets we hold will have a good chance of being great.
<< <i>Concerning the Anniv. Set:
I think one per household is the Mints new thing now, I think this is a given.
10,000 is WAYYYY to many. I'm a buyer no matter what, but it needs to be 5000, in order for it to have legs.
You can't compare the Gold Anniv. Set sell out, because the limit was TEN. How long would it have taken to sell out at one per household ?? Fast I'm sure, but obviously not as fast.
The one per, is a big deal. Look at the Liberty Unc. it came back on line, so we could say it took a month to sell out 20,000, and this was the HOT coin. Also, it took many month's to sell out the Silver Anniv. Set because of the household limit.
With a MUCH smaller collector base for Platinum than for Silver and Gold Eagles, 5000 is what the mintage should be. >>
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Agreed it would be nice to come in at 5,000 but have not seen or heard anything that indicates the mint is thinking about setting the limit so low. Even the members of this board by and large have little (maybe no) doubt that the mint can sell 10,000 sets with NO problem and they are in the business to sell coins.
A few thoughts on single coins and sets:
The annual platinum proof sets routinely outsell any of the individual coin options. To me, this implies that there is a core group of affluent collectors willing and able to acquire complete 4-denomination platinum sets, without unduly worrying about the expense.
Of the singles, the best selling coin is the one-tenth ounce, which falls within the budget of the widest group of collectors. The next best selling coin is the one ounce, the largest coin and the one which best shows off the design.
The in-between single coins, quarter ounce and half ounce, typically have the the lowest mintage and presumably the lowest demand. I would guess that the primary attractions of these sizes are a decent overall compromise between affordability and size, along with the low mintage itself.
Sets can be broken up to accommodate demand for individual coins, but there are two limiting factors to this practice. First, most collectors who can afford 4-coin sets probably have no financial need to break them up and sell them. Second, many collectors of individual denominations will want the original single-coin packaging, which is not available with broken-up sets.
So for those considering collecting single-denomination platinum proof (and W-uncirculated) coins, the number available is probably considerably lower than the mintage numbers would suggest - especially for collectors of one-fourth and one-half ounce coins who want original single-coin mint packaging to accompany their coins.
My opinion only.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
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Exactly what I do with the platinum series. Too much moola to collect them in the $50 and $100 denominations.
I am happy with collecting only the $10 and $25 options. Proof and uncirculated w's only , the direct to dealer bullion uncirculated have dropped off my list completely. And at the rate platinum is climbing the $25's might stop after '08
I wish the mint would swith to palladium so I could afford to collect the entire run each year.
Gold Eagles Complete Set with First StrikesTM (1986-present).......1 complete set
Gold Eagles Complete Set (1986-present).......................................2 complete sets
Gold Eagles Complete Set, Circulation Strikes (1986-present).........4 complete sets
Gold Eagles Complete Set, Proof (1986-present).............................9 complete sets
$50 10,832
$25 3,649
$10 4,773
$5 13,198
four coin set 6,661
The 2007 proof platinum eagles weekly sales report for 11/6/2007
$100 2443
$50 1004
$25 1085
$10 1863
four coin set 3826
Best Wishes,
Will be interesting to see how long it takes the 2007-w uncs to sell out. I just went out and bought 3 halves...looking for strong coins.
Is that right that the same amount of 2007 platinum proof 1/10s and 4 coin sets have been sold?
Love your reads!!!
I would like the platinum 3 branches of government coins for my long term collection. Preferably with the W mint mark and one ounce of each. Along the way, I like a few of the gold commemoratives. I still haven't bought one of them Gold buffalo coins. It's amazing how much the price of metals go up. Being in the metal business I see it from job to job.
2006-w gold eagles July 2007 tabulation for office of public affairs:
$50 5,708
$25 4,960
$10 4,984
$5 10,439
4 coins set 10,204
Plus a load of two and 3 coin ann. sets for the $50 coin.
<< <i>Eric,
Is that right that the same amount of 2007 platinum proof 1/10s and 4 coin sets have been sold?
Love your reads!!! >>
Typo....in too big a hurry. Corrected. Thanks.
Eric
<< <i>If there was a 1916-D Dime (one of the keys to the series) and the coin had been preserved in a manner that, without question, it could be shown that the coin was produced in the first 30 days of the year 1916 - would that coin have any added value when it was being sold along side equally graded 1916-D dimes without such documentation? >>
Interesting yes; value added questionable unless there was an interesting provenance involved.
I daresay that the original packaging that came along with the coin meaning, the exact date the coin was shipped (the USPS and Fed Ex boxes) and the original US Mint packaging along with the coin would add far more to the value of the coin than the (early) date itself the coin was shipped.
Do not forget, the original pamphlet from the US Mint would also be a value added item to the buyers acquistion of such coin.
But first strike? once again questionable.
Check out TAX FREE GOLD on google and click on Brittannia 4 coin sets to learn about them.
Let me know if you are interested.
Ericj96
2007 American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated One-Tenth Ounce Coin (T7D)
Product will be available for shipping 11/26/2007
Ericj96
UNC-W PLATS
OZ..2777
.5...2657
.25..2788
.10..4817
INCLUDES 2051 4 COIN SETS
PROOF PLATS
6491
4988
5061
5893
INCLUDES 3942 4 COIN SETS
UNC-W GOLD
17741
10442
11554
20596
INCLUDES 6624 4 COIN SETS
Unc-w silver
549368
Looks like lots of older keys will survive.
Oct. 13 reported sales figures were:
Unc-w plats
3046
2482
2597
4684
<< <i>WEEKLY SALES REPORT AS OF 11/13/2007
UNC-W PLATS
OZ..2777
.5...2657
.25..2788
.10..4817
INCLUDES 2051 4 COIN SETS
PROOF PLATS
6491
4988
5061
5893
INCLUDES 3942 4 COIN SETS
UNC-W GOLD
17741
10442
11554
20596
INCLUDES 6624 4 COIN SETS
Unc-w silver
549368
Looks like lots of older keys will survive. >>
The unc-W Gold coins have been unavailable from the Mint for two or three weeks now. The sales figures for the half- and qtr-oz coins (for example) are one-third less than the 06-Ws.
It would appear that the 07-W golds are the new key in this two-year series by a significant margin, and that a 10k mintage is meaningful when compared to the collector base.
So where's the excitement? Ebay prices realized are practically at issue price.
<< <i>
<< <i>WEEKLY SALES REPORT AS OF 11/13/2007
UNC-W PLATS
OZ..2777
.5...2657
.25..2788
.10..4817
INCLUDES 2051 4 COIN SETS
PROOF PLATS
6491
4988
5061
5893
INCLUDES 3942 4 COIN SETS
UNC-W GOLD
17741
10442
11554
20596
INCLUDES 6624 4 COIN SETS
Unc-w silver
549368
Looks like lots of older keys will survive. >>
The unc-W Gold coins have been unavailable from the Mint for two or three weeks now. The sales figures for the half- and qtr-oz coins (for example) are one-third less than the 06-Ws.
It would appear that the 07-W golds are the new key in this two-year series by a significant margin, and that a 10k mintage is meaningful when compared to the collector base.
So where's the excitement? Ebay prices realized are practically at issue price. >>
Where is the excitement anywhere? Seems people must be saving up their money for christmas and tax bills. Also, the mint can still sell some more and stab the collector in the back again.
<< <i>Am I reading this correctly. the 2007 w uncirculated 1 oz platinum coins have been revised DOWN to 2,777?
Oct. 13 reported sales figures were:
Unc-w plats
3046
2482
2597
4684 >>
I agree the 1oz Unc. Plat 'w' seems odd.
Making the assumption the 4 coin set number is correct at 2777, would mean there are only 726 singles, which would be 300 less than whats been reported for the past few weeks.
When platinum's price backed off many who just bough the big coins for bullion killed their orders.
Ericj96
<< <i>
<< <i>WEEKLY SALES REPORT AS OF 11/13/2007
UNC-W PLATS
OZ..2777
.5...2657
.25..2788
.10..4817
INCLUDES 2051 4 COIN SETS
PROOF PLATS
6491
4988
5061
5893
INCLUDES 3942 4 COIN SETS
UNC-W GOLD
17741
10442
11554
20596
INCLUDES 6624 4 COIN SETS
Unc-w silver
549368
Looks like lots of older keys will survive. >>
The unc-W Gold coins have been unavailable from the Mint for two or three weeks now. The sales figures for the half- and qtr-oz coins (for example) are one-third less than the 06-Ws.
It would appear that the 07-W golds are the new key in this two-year series by a significant margin, and that a 10k mintage is meaningful when compared to the collector base.
So where's the excitement? Ebay prices realized are practically at issue price. >>
The mint sold the 2006 w 4 coins sets until mar/apr of 2007 and if I remember correctly at this stage (mid Nov) the numbers of the 06 w were way lower that current numbers for the 07s....so it is all in the hands of the mint
Don't be counting on those numbers to hold for the 07's
<< <i>The mint sold the 2006 w 4 coins sets until mar/apr of 2007 and if I remember correctly at this stage (mid Nov) the numbers of the 06 w were way lower that current numbers for the 07s....so it is all in the hands of the mint >>
The gold 06-ws did indeed sell into 2006; January, IIRC. (I bought several.) The difference is that 06-W gold sales did not take a break as they are doing here. What if the Mint has sold off their first 07-w run, and doesn't see an easy means to an end of selling a second run, minted in these last several weeks of the year?
Nevertheless, it seems that everyone is taking the cautious attitude as coinboy is here.
Whatever happens, I think it will be hard for me to lose money on these 07-W golds. Current bullion values already cover 95% of my cost (and would be even more favorable if I was smart enough to order when the full oz was $750).
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>Is there any potential for the $10 Proof Plats 97 to Present ? >>
Yes lots...................
Ericj96
Don't be counting on those numbers to hold for the 07's
It's too early to declare any 07s the "New Key Date"...
<< <i>Can someone post the mintage numbers for the 2006 non-w uncirculated bullion platinums? >>
Readily available at the US Mint's webside
Link
My understanding is that bullion coin sales totals for a given year may not match the mintage totals with that year's date.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The numbers I have recorded for the regular (non-W) 2006 Uncs are:
1/10th oz. - 11,001
1/4th oz. - 12,001
1/2th oz. - 9,602
1 oz. - 6,000
I'm not even sure where I got these numbers - probably either Coin World or this forum.
The sales data on the Mint Website is not representative of the actual mintages - only the sales for the given time periods. It seems that some of each year's January sales numbers might include a percentage of coins from the previous year.
As an example, I once ordered a full roll of new 2000 1/4th ozers, and when I received it in January of 2000, it had a couple of 1999s.
As I recall, in some years, the Mint parcels out the previous year's coins to it's distributors when they order the new year's production, until the old ones are all gone.
I knew it would happen.