Will they sell all of the 07''sl also? The 06 plats(69's) are not doing well on ebay at the moment as a lot of the buyers of the 06 coins are aware of. A 69 set went for around $4200 from previous sales of around $5700 a set.
Why is this alarming? Typical super coin initial price spike is followed by a roughly 30 percent sag. $5700x.7=$4,000. These 69 sets are the dogs of the run as most good coins are in private solid hands or 70 holders by this late date. We bought these coins in sets for $2500 and they had a mix of 70s and 69s in them from the mint. Now the collections of did "not make its" are 4-5 grand and they are a good value. The flippers are moving on to other things and thats fine. This process must take place at some point and always does.
Now if the 07s turn out to be say 4,000 to 5,000 mintage type coins issued at 20 percent over melt from the mint with a mix of 69 and 70 grades present will they be a bad purchase? Short term IMHO they may be flat in 69 grades. I am working on picking up PCGS-70 2007-w coins from the mint now. Will I be happy with PCGS-70 2007-w plats with a Jackie class mintage 5 years out for 1.25 times melt?
If the mint struck less than 5,000 pcs of each I think they will sell out by spring 08. If they struck more than that maybe not.
Flippers are those who try to trade on expectation of short term price changes. Collectors/investors look at what the asset is and use some rational means to determine the long term value and act accordingly.
While nothing is certain in this life other than we will die and God loves us I think it very likely that 07 UNC-w plats will be higher than 06s unc-w by a significant margin . The 07s will still be rare by most measures.
There's too many people waiting on the fence this year to end the year with a lower mintage than last year. IMO 07 will be higher than 06. I too, like Eric, would like to see mintages to stay around Jackie Robinson's mintage.
For some reason the Mint isn't being exactly Speedy Gonzales is shipping the 07-W unc platinum coins. I ordered some one ounce coins on Sept 25th which showed, in stock and reserved, and the charge was approved on my credit card. They finally shipped the coins today after sitting on the order for 10 days. Having purchased the 06-W coins I am committed to complete the 3 year set no matter what the mintages.
<< <i>For some reason the Mint isn't being exactly Speedy Gonzales is shipping the 07-W unc platinum coins. I ordered some one ounce coins on Sept 25th which showed, in stock and reserved, and the charge was approved on my credit card. They finally shipped the coins today after sitting on the order for 10 days. Having purchased the 06-W coins I am committed to complete the 3 year set no matter what the mintages. >>
I'm having the same exact experience. I ordered the 07 unc. platinum set on Sept. 28, showed in stock & reserved, charge was approved on my cc, and as of today it still hasn't shipped.
While nothing is certain in this life other than we will die and God loves us I think it very likely that 07 UNC-w plats will be higher than 06s unc-w by a significant margin . The 07s will still be rare by most measures.
If so, this means that the 2006 unc-W plats will be "trophy coins" and the 2007's won't.
Sort of like the unc. $5 Capitol Visitors Center compared to the unc. $5 Jackie Robinson.
I think the 2006-w legislative unc plats have very high likelyhood of becoming "trophy" coins in time like Unc Jackie is today. Just as the second key Capital Visitor Center Unc is a very good coin about 5 years after issue so too will the 2007-w changing reverse plats be 5 years out provided the mintage on them stays less than 5,000 coins.
I don't know how many of you noticed but the little 10th unc-w plat went back ordered last weekend then came back up for a short period of time. I noticed that prior to the Unc-w sales stop the little 10th was up for sale for a couple days then went two weeks back order again. Then later that day the stop took place. This many have been the sale of the returns after a base inventory sellout. It is a sign that I watch for. The mints sales are in flux right now and it may mean nothing but its important to be paying attention. There is a slim but significant chance that the little coin is sold out. If when the plats are offered for sale again the 10th does not come back up or does so for a very short period of time before sell out there is a reasonable probablity that the sell out numbers could look like this:
High Range 2007 Changing Reverse MS plat "w"
$100...5725 $50....4919 $25....5187 $10....6263
Low range
$100...4568 $50....4031 $25....4165 $10....5644
These numbers come from a load of previous sell out relationships and sales history. If the tenth dies soon, go buy what you need for your collection. Do not play chicken with the mint.
Having purchased the first two coins, at great expense, I am committed to complete the sets no matter what. Hope my granddaughter will appreciate them.
Eric, these numbers are much higher than what was last reported. Was there a rush to buy in the past 10 days or so that would've caused this much of an increase in the sales figures?
Also, are the Gold "W"s coming back? Does anyone know?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Eric: Not sure how relevant or accurate mintage figures for early year Proof Plats are and will be (become)? These sets now melt at $2,618/set today. Heck, I was offering PCGS-PR69DCAM Plat sets of 1999-2002 on the BST board just last week at $2,699/set retail (including 4 grading fees and shipping costs)! The scrap bullion guys are buying these sets and individual pieces - and they sure have no intention to register them with the PCGS registry. If Plat stays above $1,400/oz - don't be surprised if a decent amount of these coins head to the bullion dealers, directly or indirectly.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Eric, these numbers are much higher than what was last reported. Was there a rush to buy in the past 10 days or so that would've caused this much of an increase in the sales figures?
Also, are the Gold "W"s coming back? Does anyone know? >>
I am not saying thats how many they have sold so far. I am saying that if the tenth sells out very soon that previous sales and and mintage relationships would indicate that the final struck mintages could fall inbetween the high and low number stated.
<< <i>Eric: Not sure how relevant or accurate mintage figures for early year Proof Plats are and will be (become)? These sets now melt at $2,618/set today. Heck, I was offering PCGS-PR69DCAM Plat sets of 1999-2002 on the BST board just last week at $2,699/set retail (including 4 grading fees and shipping costs)! The scrap bullion guys are buying these sets and individual pieces - and they sure have no intention to register them with the PCGS registry. If Plat stays above $1,400/oz - don't be surprised if a decent amount of these coins head to the bullion dealers, directly or indirectly.
Wondercoin >>
Thats an excellent and important point. If a mess of them get melted it will not just be the classic guys talking about surviving pops not mintages.
Eric: Not sure how relevant or accurate mintage figures for early year Proof Plats are and will be (become)? These sets now melt at $2,618/set today. Heck, I was offering PCGS-PR69DCAM Plat sets of 1999-2002 on the BST board just last week at $2,699/set retail (including 4 grading fees and shipping costs)! The scrap bullion guys are buying these sets and individual pieces - and they sure have no intention to register them with the PCGS registry. If Plat stays above $1,400/oz - don't be surprised if a decent amount of these coins head to the bullion dealers, directly or indirectly.
Just like Morgan Dollars and other classic coins, we will never know for sure just how many Proof Plats have ended their lives in the melting pot. But, I will tell you this...
IMHO, if nearly any dealer or collector seriously tried to buy (100) fresh Proof Plat coins of a great number of the particular date/denomination coins that current exist between 1997-2003 (forget the 04/05 years which are already "scarce") - many would be unobtainable even at this point within a 3-6 month window. Repeat - just (100) coins. Ex: Go out and try to buy (100) fresh 2001 Half oz Proof plats within a 3-6 month period! Report back to us after you have locked in your 10th or 15th coin a month or two from now.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
If that is indeed the case, it kinda blows the Modern-bashers out of the water when they keep saying that the whole mintage will survive, and in high grades!! If platinum continues it's climb, and I expect that it will - this could be the meltdown year for Platinum Eagles, like 1979 was for silver. Yikes!!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I know the $100 Proof Plat mintage is definetely not safe as one of my customers likes to carry them around in his pocket for "flipping coins" and to place them on the desk at the time of a serious business negotiation where there is an impasse. He tells me on a number of deals already this year, just throwing in the $100 Plat sitting on the table was all it took to bring the other side around on a million dollar contract where there was an impasse!! Try it sometime - I think you may find they are a nice "ice-breaker".
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
just throwing in the $100 Plat sitting on the table was all it took to bring the other side around on a million dollar contract where there was an impasse!! Try it sometime - I think you may find they are a nice "ice-breaker".
If I did that in my business, they'd never buy from me again - they would say I already make enough! Worse yet, they would ask me for an even bigger discount!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Now is a time for us to learn some new rules of thumb.
In April the price of gold was about $670/oz. Four coin unc-w gold was $1379 or $745 per oz. Thats about 11 percent margin. Sales stopped at about $710 or 5 percent margin.
Unc-w plats were priced when the bullion was about $1300 an oz. The 4 coin set and one oz coin was priced at about 1490/oz. Thats about 14 percent above spot. At about 1420 per oz the unc-w plats go dead. So the issue died at about 5% over spot.
Maybe in the future we should start paying attention about 6-7% over spot for suspension of sales.
I know its obvious but I am always looking for relationships that we can apply however simple.
10/16/2007 Sales report Proof plats 5408 4251 4359 5082
Unc-w plats 3046 2482 2597 4684
The unc-w 4 coin sets uncluded in the above number is 1984. Note thats 2700 unc-w tenths even. We need to pay close attention to the uncs. It would not shock me if the tenths are close to done as single issues.
Thanks Eric! You must have called them in DC. NN has not posted.
2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin 4-coin set ...............1,989
$100 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 1,079 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 3,068 $50 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 588 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 2,577 $25 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 687 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 2,676 $10 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 1,555 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 3,544
Tabulation:
$100 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 3,068 – 3,046 = 2007 W is 42 short of 2006 W
$50 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 2,577 – 2,482 = 2007 W is 95 short of 2006 W
$25 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 2.676 – 2,587 = 2007 W is 89 short of 2006 W
$10 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 3,544 – 4,684 = 2006 W is 1,140 short of 2007 W
Only 11,865 COINS of the 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Burnished Series EXIST
Right the 2006-w will be king when the 2007-w goes on sale again. And the final sales numbers may look like this as mentioned before. I think the unc plats will be fun again this winter just not as fun as last winter.
High Range 2007 Changing Reverse MS plat "w"
$100...5725 $50....4919 $25....5187 $10....6263
Low range
$100...4568 $50....4031 $25....4165 $10....5644
These numbers come from a load of previous sell out relationships and sales history. If the tenth dies soon, go buy what you need for your collection. Do not play chicken with the mint.
<< <i>Now is the time for us to learn some new rules of thumb.
In April the price of gold was about $670/oz. Four coin unc-w gold was $1379 or $745 per oz. Thats about 11 percent margin. Sales stopped at about $710 or 5 percent margin.
Unc-w plats were priced when the bullion was about $1300 an oz. The 4 coin set and one oz coin was priced at about 1490/oz. Thats about 14 percent above spot. At about 1420 per oz the unc-w plats go dead. So the issue died at about 5% over spot.
Maybe in the future we should start paying attention about 6-7% over spot for suspension of sales.
I know its obvious but I am always looking for relationships that we can apply however simple.
Ericj96 >>
My friend, this is the Federal Government. You expect some consistency? I would rather try to determine how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. It would be easier.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>Right the 2006-w will be king when the 2007-w goes on sale again. And the final sales numbers may look like this as mentioned before. I think the unc plats will be fun again this winter just not as fun as last winter.
High Range 2007 Changing Reverse MS plat "w"
$100...5725 $50....4919 $25....5187 $10....6263
Low range
$100...4568 $50....4031 $25....4165 $10....5644
These numbers come from a load of previous sell out relationships and sales history. If the tenth dies soon, go buy what you need for your collection. Do not play chicken with the mint. >>
2007 Unc-w plats 3046 2482 2597 4684
I think your low range should be your high range. Of course it depends on how long they are for sale, but with a price increase your calling for a 50% increase in 1oz sold just to reach your low number and for the number to almost double on your high number ..
I don't think that will happen, expecially because the mintage will be above 2006, so no key date, and the 10th Anniv. may come out. If the 10th Anniv. doesn't get minted then the "W" may spike, but otherwise what's the point unless your just collecting, and who does that anymore ??
Platinum eagles have little or no premium above their melt value. Gold and silver eagles both have enough premium that you never hear of them being melted for their metal content.
This implies that very few people are saving platinum coins as part of their "hard money" holdings. This may explain the low mintages of the bullion issues, and relative lack of interest in the collector versions. People are more familiar with gold and silver due to their historic role as money, and the availability of formerly circulating coins. There have never been any circulating platinum coins in the U.S., and very few elsewhere. So there is a lack of familiarity with the metal on the part of the general public.
The extremely low mintages and attractive designs of recent years may increase interest in the series over time, but I think it will be a gradual process.
<< <i>Platinum eagles have little or no premium above their melt value. Gold and silver eagles both have enough premium that you never hear of them being melted for their metal content.
This implies that very few people are saving platinum coins as part of their "hard money" holdings. This may explain the low mintages of the bullion issues, and relative lack of interest in the collector versions. People are more familiar with gold and silver due to their historic role as money, and the availability of formerly circulating coins. There have never been any circulating platinum coins in the U.S., and very few elsewhere. So there is a lack of familiarity with the metal on the part of the general public.
The extremely low mintages and attractive designs of recent years may increase interest in the series over time, but I think it will be a gradual process.
My opinion only. >>
Great point , and something that has worried me since the advent of the "platinum eagle fever" generally low mintages of mint products means low interest in the collecting world,(I am not a modern basher and collect NCLTs). Except for the 2004 W and the 2006 W Unc which prematurely went black , these coins are pretty much freely available and still have remarkably low mintages. Any thoughts???
"generally low mintages of mint products means low interest in the collecting world".
If you look at the shape of the demand curve its clear that higher priced items will sell in lower volume all else equal. Pan Pac slugs were too expensive and in general did not sell, same for matte proof Gold Indians and $20 Saints, Hawaiian halves were the highest premium commem up to its time etc etc etc. High cost does slow sales in the year of issue and its a long term blessing. There is no historical justification for assuming coins with low mintages and large total series pops will not perfrom well. "Common date" coins in a rare set will behave like bullion for a very long time and this is to be expected. If you look back over the last 100 years you will find that the majority of the higher material content series contain the majority of entire set value in the three rarest keys. The rest are just along for the ride.
<< <i>If you look back over the last 100 years you will find that the majority of the higher material content series contain the majority of entire set value in the three rarest keys. The rest are just along for the ride. >>
This raises the following question, will a complete 3 year set of 06,07,08-W platinum in any weight be worth more then the coins individually? If not, what's the rationale of purchasing the higher mintage coins?
<< <i>If you look back over the last 100 years you will find that the majority of the higher material content series contain the majority of entire set value in the three rarest keys. The rest are just along for the ride. >>
This raises the following question, will a complete 3 year set of 06,07,08-W platinum in any weight be worth more then the coins individually? If not, what's the rationale of purchasing the higher mintage coins? >>
For those of us that collect them it's called "collecting the series". Only the flippers and coins brought for profit will have problems if they can't get much more than they paid, but it all good with me.
For those of us that collect them it's called "collecting the series". Only the flippers and coins brought for profit will have problems if they can't get much more than they paid, but it all good with me.
Lets take the 2006-2008w mint state changing reverse plat halves for example.
2006-w mintage say 2577 coins and 50% can make PCGS-70 because the coins looked good as a group. 2007-w mintage very roughly 4000 struck and sold with a 20 percent PCGS-70 grade through rate because the coins as a group are the worst dogs I have seen in a while. 2008-w mintage very roughly 4800 struck and sold and 35 % can make 70.
That gives us 1260 pcgs-70 06w, 800 pcgs-70 07w and 1680 pcgs-70 08w coins making up a super grade set. In the year of issue lots of coins are around and looking for homes. Its easy to cherry pick killers in the year of issue. 3 Years out finding one at all can be rough and most will be 70 slab rejects.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity to put together these VERY VERY LOW mintage sets in Ultra grade and you need to be picking up the finest stuff while its around. I can tell you that IMHO the 2007-w pcgs-70 half has a chance of being more expensive than a 70 grade 06-w in 5 years. The mintages are one very important supply side variable in determining set value but we can not forget relative condition rarity either. This is the time each year when the coins come out to be SERIOUSLY PICKY regardless of your personal preference for Govt packaging or 70 slabs.
Do you have any sales report numbers on the 2006 W AGE uncs?
The last update I know of has the 1/10th oz. @ 25,650; the 1/4th oz. @ 19,925; and the 1/2 oz. @ 18,850. Since the time that these numbers were made available, Eric documented a downward adjustment in the Plats, so I am guessing that a similar adjustment must have occured in the AGEs. I just don't have the kind of access needed to verify this.
The 2007-W Burnished AGEs seem to be on a low mintage track in view of the recent re-pricing, with one small caveat. If they are minted to demand, fine - but I suspect that along with the re-pricing, there may have been another procurement cycle and production run. If that is the case, the Mint will sell them until they are gone even if it runs into next year. Such is the nature of "minting to demand" if my interpretation of Mint behavior is correct. The biggest kicker in this scenario would be if the price of gold crashes and they leave the selling price high, which would inhibit further sales.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
Box of 20
Now if the 07s turn out to be say 4,000 to 5,000 mintage type coins issued at 20 percent over melt from the mint with a mix of 69 and 70 grades present will they be a bad purchase? Short term IMHO they may be flat in 69 grades. I am working on picking up PCGS-70 2007-w coins from the mint now. Will I be happy with PCGS-70 2007-w plats with a Jackie class mintage 5 years out for 1.25 times melt?
If the mint struck less than 5,000 pcs of each I think they will sell out by spring 08. If they struck more than that maybe not.
Flippers are those who try to trade on expectation of short term price changes. Collectors/investors look at what the asset is and use some rational means to determine the long term value and act accordingly.
Will the 06's be lower or higher?
Thanks
<< <i>For some reason the Mint isn't being exactly Speedy Gonzales is shipping the 07-W unc platinum coins. I ordered some one ounce coins on Sept 25th which showed, in stock and reserved, and the charge was approved on my credit card. They finally shipped the coins today after sitting on the order for 10 days. Having purchased the 06-W coins I am committed to complete the 3 year set no matter what the mintages. >>
I'm having the same exact experience. I ordered the 07 unc. platinum set on Sept. 28, showed in stock & reserved, charge was approved on my cc, and as of today it still hasn't shipped.
While nothing is certain in this life other than we will die and God loves us I think it very likely that 07 UNC-w plats will be higher than 06s unc-w by a significant margin . The 07s will still be rare by most measures.
If so, this means that the 2006 unc-W plats will be "trophy coins" and the 2007's won't.
Sort of like the unc. $5 Capitol Visitors Center compared to the unc. $5 Jackie Robinson.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Ericj96
I've been watching EBAY for 2006 W platinum eagle sales, and it looks like things are bouncing back for the 4th quarter.
<< <i>That's right Eric! We are hard at work. Here's another bit of info. Grading Stats for Uncirculated Platinum:
I don't know how many of you noticed but the little 10th unc-w plat went back ordered last weekend then came back up for a short period of time. I noticed that prior to the Unc-w sales stop the little 10th was up for sale for a couple days then went two weeks back order again. Then later that day the stop took place. This many have been the sale of the returns after a base inventory sellout. It is a sign that I watch for. The mints sales are in flux right now and it may mean nothing but its important to be paying attention. There is a slim but significant chance that the little coin is sold out. If when the plats are offered for sale again the 10th does not come back up or does so for a very short period of time before sell out there is a reasonable probablity that the sell out numbers could look like this:
High Range 2007 Changing Reverse MS plat "w"
$100...5725
$50....4919
$25....5187
$10....6263
Low range
$100...4568
$50....4031
$25....4165
$10....5644
These numbers come from a load of previous sell out relationships and sales history. If the tenth dies soon, go buy what you need for your collection. Do not play chicken with the mint.
Ericj96
Ericj96
$50....4919
$25....5187
$10....6263
Low range
$100...4568
$50....4031
$25....4165
$10....5644
Eric, these numbers are much higher than what was last reported. Was there a rush to buy in the past 10 days or so that would've caused this much of an increase in the sales figures?
Also, are the Gold "W"s coming back? Does anyone know?
I knew it would happen.
Wondercoin
<< <i>$100...5725
$50....4919
$25....5187
$10....6263
Low range
$100...4568
$50....4031
$25....4165
$10....5644
Eric, these numbers are much higher than what was last reported. Was there a rush to buy in the past 10 days or so that would've caused this much of an increase in the sales figures?
Also, are the Gold "W"s coming back? Does anyone know? >>
I am not saying thats how many they have sold so far. I am saying that if the tenth sells out very soon that previous sales and and mintage relationships would indicate that the final struck mintages could fall inbetween the high and low number stated.
<< <i>Eric: Not sure how relevant or accurate mintage figures for early year Proof Plats are and will be (become)? These sets now melt at $2,618/set today. Heck, I was offering PCGS-PR69DCAM Plat sets of 1999-2002 on the BST board just last week at $2,699/set retail (including 4 grading fees and shipping costs)! The scrap bullion guys are buying these sets and individual pieces - and they sure have no intention to register them with the PCGS registry. If Plat stays above $1,400/oz - don't be surprised if a decent amount of these coins head to the bullion dealers, directly or indirectly.
Wondercoin >>
Thats an excellent and important point. If a mess of them get melted it will not just be the classic guys talking about surviving pops not mintages.
Ericj96
Wondercoin
That is music to my ears!
Ericj96
Ericj96
IMHO, if nearly any dealer or collector seriously tried to buy (100) fresh Proof Plat coins of a great number of the particular date/denomination coins that current exist between 1997-2003 (forget the 04/05 years which are already "scarce") - many would be unobtainable even at this point within a 3-6 month window. Repeat - just (100) coins. Ex: Go out and try to buy (100) fresh 2001 Half oz Proof plats within a 3-6 month period! Report back to us after you have locked in your 10th or 15th coin a month or two from now.
Wondercoin
Wondercoin
I knew it would happen.
Wondercoin
If I did that in my business, they'd never buy from me again - they would say I already make enough! Worse yet, they would ask me for an even bigger discount!
I knew it would happen.
Wondercoin
I knew it would happen.
In April the price of gold was about $670/oz. Four coin unc-w gold was $1379 or $745 per oz. Thats about 11 percent margin. Sales stopped at about $710 or 5 percent margin.
Unc-w plats were priced when the bullion was about $1300 an oz. The 4 coin set and one oz coin was priced at about 1490/oz. Thats about 14 percent above spot. At about 1420 per oz the unc-w plats go dead. So the issue died at about 5% over spot.
Maybe in the future we should start paying attention about 6-7% over spot for suspension of sales.
I know its obvious but I am always looking for relationships that we can apply however simple.
Ericj96
Proof plats
5408
4251
4359
5082
Unc-w plats
3046
2482
2597
4684
The unc-w 4 coin sets uncluded in the above number is 1984. Note thats 2700 unc-w tenths even. We need to pay close attention to the uncs. It would not shock me if the tenths are close to done as single issues.
2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin 4-coin set ...............1,989
$100 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 1,079 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 3,068
$50 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 588 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 2,577
$25 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 687 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 2,676
$10 2006 W Unc Platinum Coin Total = 1,555 Single + 1,989 in Sets = 3,544
Tabulation:
$100 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 3,068 – 3,046 = 2007 W is 42 short of 2006 W
$50 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 2,577 – 2,482 = 2007 W is 95 short of 2006 W
$25 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 2.676 – 2,587 = 2007 W is 89 short of 2006 W
$10 2006 W Unc Plat Coin (- 2007 W) = 3,544 – 4,684 = 2006 W is 1,140 short of 2007 W
Only 11,865 COINS of the 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Burnished Series EXIST
High Range 2007 Changing Reverse MS plat "w"
$100...5725
$50....4919
$25....5187
$10....6263
Low range
$100...4568
$50....4031
$25....4165
$10....5644
These numbers come from a load of previous sell out relationships and sales history. If the tenth dies soon, go buy what you need for your collection. Do not play chicken with the mint.
<< <i>Now is the time for us to learn some new rules of thumb.
In April the price of gold was about $670/oz. Four coin unc-w gold was $1379 or $745 per oz. Thats about 11 percent margin. Sales stopped at about $710 or 5 percent margin.
Unc-w plats were priced when the bullion was about $1300 an oz. The 4 coin set and one oz coin was priced at about 1490/oz. Thats about 14 percent above spot. At about 1420 per oz the unc-w plats go dead. So the issue died at about 5% over spot.
Maybe in the future we should start paying attention about 6-7% over spot for suspension of sales.
I know its obvious but I am always looking for relationships that we can apply however simple.
Ericj96 >>
My friend, this is the Federal Government. You expect some consistency? I would rather try to determine how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. It would be easier.
Historically, isn't there as many four coin sets made as there are individual $10 coins made?
Interesting to say the least. I just did the math on three separate years and sure enough, right on the money! Thanks Eric!!!
Do you have any sales report numbers on the 2006 W AGE uncs?
Ren
<< <i>Right the 2006-w will be king when the 2007-w goes on sale again. And the final sales numbers may look like this as mentioned before. I think the unc plats will be fun again this winter just not as fun as last winter.
High Range 2007 Changing Reverse MS plat "w"
$100...5725
$50....4919
$25....5187
$10....6263
Low range
$100...4568
$50....4031
$25....4165
$10....5644
These numbers come from a load of previous sell out relationships and sales history. If the tenth dies soon, go buy what you need for your collection. Do not play chicken with the mint. >>
2007 Unc-w plats
3046
2482
2597
4684
I think your low range should be your high range. Of course it depends on how long they are for sale, but with a price increase your calling for a 50% increase in 1oz sold just to reach your low number and for the number to almost double on your high number ..
I don't think that will happen, expecially because the mintage will be above 2006, so no key date, and the 10th Anniv. may come out. If the 10th Anniv. doesn't get minted then the "W" may spike, but otherwise what's the point unless your just collecting, and who does that anymore ??
Platinum eagles have little or no premium above their melt value. Gold and silver eagles both have enough premium that you never hear of them being melted for their metal content.
This implies that very few people are saving platinum coins as part of their "hard money" holdings. This may explain the low mintages of the bullion issues, and relative lack of interest in the collector versions. People are more familiar with gold and silver due to their historic role as money, and the availability of formerly circulating coins. There have never been any circulating platinum coins in the U.S., and very few elsewhere. So there is a lack of familiarity with the metal on the part of the general public.
The extremely low mintages and attractive designs of recent years may increase interest in the series over time, but I think it will be a gradual process.
My opinion only.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Platinum eagles have little or no premium above their melt value. Gold and silver eagles both have enough premium that you never hear of them being melted for their metal content.
This implies that very few people are saving platinum coins as part of their "hard money" holdings. This may explain the low mintages of the bullion issues, and relative lack of interest in the collector versions. People are more familiar with gold and silver due to their historic role as money, and the availability of formerly circulating coins. There have never been any circulating platinum coins in the U.S., and very few elsewhere. So there is a lack of familiarity with the metal on the part of the general public.
The extremely low mintages and attractive designs of recent years may increase interest in the series over time, but I think it will be a gradual process.
My opinion only. >>
Great point , and something that has worried me since the advent of the "platinum eagle fever" generally low mintages of mint products means low interest in the collecting world,(I am not a modern basher and collect NCLTs). Except for the 2004 W and the 2006 W Unc which prematurely went black , these coins are pretty much freely available and still have remarkably low mintages. Any thoughts???
If you look at the shape of the demand curve its clear that higher priced items will sell in lower volume all else equal. Pan Pac slugs were too expensive and in general did not sell, same for matte proof Gold Indians and $20 Saints, Hawaiian halves were the highest premium commem up to its time etc etc etc. High cost does slow sales in the year of issue and its a long term blessing. There is no historical justification for assuming coins with low mintages and large total series pops will not perfrom well. "Common date" coins in a rare set will behave like bullion for a very long time and this is to be expected. If you look back over the last 100 years you will find that the majority of the higher material content series contain the majority of entire set value in the three rarest keys. The rest are just along for the ride.
Ericj96
<< <i>If you look back over the last 100 years you will find that the majority of the higher material content series contain the majority of entire set value in the three rarest keys. The rest are just along for the ride. >>
This raises the following question, will a complete 3 year set of 06,07,08-W platinum in any weight be worth more then the coins individually? If not, what's the rationale of purchasing the higher mintage coins?
<< <i>
<< <i>If you look back over the last 100 years you will find that the majority of the higher material content series contain the majority of entire set value in the three rarest keys. The rest are just along for the ride. >>
This raises the following question, will a complete 3 year set of 06,07,08-W platinum in any weight be worth more then the coins individually? If not, what's the rationale of purchasing the higher mintage coins? >>
For those of us that collect them it's called "collecting the series".
Me too!!!
Lets take the 2006-2008w mint state changing reverse plat halves for example.
2006-w mintage say 2577 coins and 50% can make PCGS-70 because the coins looked good as a group.
2007-w mintage very roughly 4000 struck and sold with a 20 percent PCGS-70 grade through rate because the coins as a group are the worst dogs I have seen in a while.
2008-w mintage very roughly 4800 struck and sold and 35 % can make 70.
That gives us 1260 pcgs-70 06w, 800 pcgs-70 07w and 1680 pcgs-70 08w coins making up a super grade set. In the year of issue lots of coins are around and looking for homes. Its easy to cherry pick killers in the year of issue. 3 Years out finding one at all can be rough and most will be 70 slab rejects.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity to put together these VERY VERY LOW mintage sets in Ultra grade and you need to be picking up the finest stuff while its around. I can tell you that IMHO the 2007-w pcgs-70 half has a chance of being more expensive than a 70 grade 06-w in 5 years. The mintages are one very important supply side variable in determining set value but we can not forget relative condition rarity either. This is the time each year when the coins come out to be SERIOUSLY PICKY regardless of your personal preference for Govt packaging or 70 slabs.
Thanks
Ericj96
The last update I know of has the 1/10th oz. @ 25,650; the 1/4th oz. @ 19,925; and the 1/2 oz. @ 18,850. Since the time that these numbers were made available, Eric documented a downward adjustment in the Plats, so I am guessing that a similar adjustment must have occured in the AGEs. I just don't have the kind of access needed to verify this.
The 2007-W Burnished AGEs seem to be on a low mintage track in view of the recent re-pricing, with one small caveat. If they are minted to demand, fine - but I suspect that along with the re-pricing, there may have been another procurement cycle and production run. If that is the case, the Mint will sell them until they are gone even if it runs into next year. Such is the nature of "minting to demand" if my interpretation of Mint behavior is correct. The biggest kicker in this scenario would be if the price of gold crashes and they leave the selling price high, which would inhibit further sales.
I knew it would happen.
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