Lets take the 2006-2008w mint state changing reverse plat halves for example.
2006-w mintage say 2577 coins and 50% can make PCGS-70 because the coins looked good as a group. 2007-w mintage very roughly 4000 struck and sold with a 20 percent PCGS-70 grade through rate because the coins as a group are the worst dogs I have seen in a while. 2008-w mintage very roughly 4800 struck and sold and 35 % can make 70.
That gives us 1260 pcgs-70 06w, 800 pcgs-70 07w and 1680 pcgs-70 08w coins making up a super grade set. In the year of issue lots of coins are around and looking for homes. Its easy to cherry pick killers in the year of issue. 3 Years out finding one at all can be rough and most will be 70 slab rejects.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity to put together these VERY VERY LOW mintage sets in Ultra grade and you need to be picking up the finest stuff while its around. I can tell you that IMHO the 2007-w pcgs-70 half has a chance of being more expensive than a 70 grade 06-w in 5 years. The mintages are one very important supply side variable in determining set value but we can not forget relative condition rarity either. This is the time each year when the coins come out to be SERIOUSLY PICKY regardless of your personal preference for Govt packaging or 70 slabs.
One issue that will affect availability is the number of sets vs. number of singles.
For the 2006-W uncirculated platinum coins, the number of sets exceeded the number of singles of any denomination. That seems to be the case for some of the recent years' proofs also.
I would guess that a substantial portion of each year's sets are bought by "deep pocket" collectors who intend to keep them as sets. This limits the number of single coins available to those who are collecting a particular denomination - especially if they want to include the original mint packaging for the single coin option.
For example, if recent mintage estimates are correct, there are only 588 mint boxes and certificates available for the single 2006-W uncirculated $50 platinum, and only 687 for the $25 coin. So that's the limit of the number of collectors that can own each of these coins with original mint packaging.
For collectors willing to skip the packaging, the number of single coins available is a function of the number of sets that are broken up. This quantity can't be known with any precision, but I would guess that no more than one-third of the 2006-W uncirculated platinum four-coin sets will be broken up to be sold as singles. That would supply less than 700 coins of each denomination into the marketplace.
So single denomination collectors face two kinds of scarcity in regard to the uncirculated 2006-W platinum coins - they are competing for an extremely limited supply of single-coin original mint packaging, and they are competing with set collectors for the particular denomination they collect. In future years, this could make acquiring these coins even more challenging than the apparent low mintage numbers would suggest.
<< <i>I would guess that a substantial portion of each year's sets are bought by "deep pocket" collectors who intend to keep them as sets >>
Actually, quite the opposite may be true. We flippers always consider a risk/reward ratio....and if by buying the set we can reduce the risk (because of the intrinsic value of the underlying metal) because it's a better "value" on the set...we buy the set.....
<< <i>I would guess that no more than one-third of the 2006-W uncirculated platinum four-coin sets will be broken up to be sold as singles >>
Actually, there are probably less than 100 original, mint sealed sets in existence. And to think I sold one for $4700 when they first became available. Mulligan?
Actually, there are probably less than 100 original, mint sealed sets in existence.
It's possible, but I would be inclined to bet there are quite a few more. I believe the high set-to-single ratio goes back to the time before platinum sets became such hot speculative items.
Besides, I would imagine there must be more than 100 collectors in the entire country who are wealthy enough and interested enough to buy the four-coin sets for collecting rather than investing.
Many of these collectors probably get their sets slabbed, for registry or other purposes. So there may be a low number of "original" sets, but even after the sets are slabbed, many collectors would probably not wish to break them up.
It's not only platinum. Another unexpected rarity was the 1997 Jackie Robinson uncirculated $5 gold. Of the 5,174 coins struck, I believe that over 3,000 of them were sold as part of 4-coin sets. I think there is a solid collector base for sets as well as singles.
Lets take the 2006-2008w mint state changing reverse plat halves for example.
2006-w mintage say 2577 coins and 50% can make PCGS-70 because the coins looked good as a group. 2007-w mintage very roughly 4000 struck and sold with a 20 percent PCGS-70 grade through rate because the coins as a group are the worst dogs I have seen in a while. 2008-w mintage very roughly 4800 struck and sold and 35 % can make 70.
That gives us 1260 pcgs-70 06w, 800 pcgs-70 07w and 1680 pcgs-70 08w coins making up a super grade set. In the year of issue lots of coins are around and looking for homes. Its easy to cherry pick killers in the year of issue. 3 Years out finding one at all can be rough and most will be 70 slab rejects.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity to put together these VERY VERY LOW mintage sets in Ultra grade and you need to be picking up the finest stuff while its around. I can tell you that IMHO the 2007-w pcgs-70 half has a chance of being more expensive than a 70 grade 06-w in 5 years. The mintages are one very important supply side variable in determining set value but we can not forget relative condition rarity either. This is the time each year when the coins come out to be SERIOUSLY PICKY regardless of your personal preference for Govt packaging or 70 slabs.
Thanks
Ericj96 >>
2008-W ??? Did you hop into a time machine?? >>
Answer:
No time machine here but it would be nice. I have no idea what the 08 numbers will look like other than knowing that a very high unc/proof direct mint issue ratio is .6. So typical proof sales times .6 is likely 4-5k. I was not really trying to predict that years sales. We were talking about why pick up years other than the mintage keys. My illustration was meant to show how contition rarity can impact the set longer term when the good coins have found homes and just the slab rejects are for sale.
Ericj96
PS: Have not studied the gold issue for 2006-w because the various mintage estimates do not deviate much from each other as a percentage. I just took a serious look at the Unc-w plats because the numbers floating around were at odds by 40 percent.
PSS: Thanks guys for your help making this thread as strong as it has been......Thanks to all!
With all the excitement around Platinum lately I am curious to know how the Reverse Proof Platinum Eagle will impact the series. Here's some scenarios:
Scenario #1 - If the RP Plat comes in with a mintage above 10,000 we must ask ourselves what will be the collectible value of such piece given that Platinum is generally considered to be a low mintage coin. Will the novelty of a RP Plat attract enough collectors to absorve a high mintage issue? Will the coin be popular with previous purchasers of Gold and Silver RPs becoming extinct on arrival?
Scenario #2 - The coin is announced with a high mintage and is offered too late in the year. Flippers loose interest based on the high mintage announcement and the coin ends up selling poorly. The mint cut sales short and the coin ends up with a low mintage. This scenario is highly unlikely since selling the coins in December practically means that the mint will probably have them minted prior to starting sales.
Scenario #3 - The mint announces a mintage below 10,000 but adds a one per household restriction. Will the sets go mostly to flippers creating an artificial market at first? How fast will they sell considering how expensive Platinum is? What will be the value of an RP70 in this case? Will interest be strong considering th ereaction to the Jefferson's Liberty in a likely situation?
With all the excitement around Platinum lately I am curious to know how the Reverse Proof Platinum Eagle will impact the series.
This might partly depend on whether it's needed for registry sets.
The 2006-W reverse proof gold eagle is not currently part of any registry set. If the same becomes true for the reverse proof platinum eagle, many collectors may not even feel the need to obtain one.
This might partly depend on whether it's needed for registry sets.
Interesting! I didn't realize that the RP Gold was not included as part of the Registry sets. I guess that leaves this up to true collectors that feel the need to have it and flippers. After all, this will probably be the biggest flip of the Year. In that case there might be a scenario #4 - Since the coin is not required as part of the registry sets, interest is low at first keeping mintage low. In that case the coin might have a strong value based on mintage. I really doubt senario #4 might even have a chance. These coins will win the "Flip of the Year" Award IMO...
<< <i>The 2006-W reverse proof gold eagle is not currently part of any registry set. If the same becomes true for the reverse proof platinum eagle, many collectors may not even feel the need to obtain one. >>
Actually that is not quite correct. The 2006-W reverse is included in the complete sets as I personally lobbied to get it included.
The 2006-W reverse is included in the complete sets as I personally lobbied to get it included.
Using the "View Set Composition" links, I don't see it on any of the complete set compositions on the registry website. Just in the 20th Anniversary Eagles set.
I wonder just how powerful of an effect inclusion or not in the registry set will have. Its been discussed over and over on this board how a vanishingly small percentage of the collector base even knows who/what PCGS is. I have collected a number of key coins (some slabbed, some not) that are not part of a registry set. I simply have no interest. Yet, I still want a plat RP.
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
I too feel that the Registry does not play a major role on how a coin sells at the mint. As a collector of Platinum, I am excited about getting an RP Plat even if is not part of my Registry set...
<< <i>The 2006-W reverse is included in the complete sets as I personally lobbied to get it included.
Using the "View Set Composition" links, I don't see it on any of the complete set compositions on the registry website. Just in the 20th Anniversary Eagles set. >>
I see what you are saying which is actually interesting. It seems that PCGS allows the reverse proof or the regular proof in the 2006 PR G$50 slot in the complete sets. So maybe this was done just to shut me up.
It seems that PCGS allows the reverse proof or the regular proof in the 2006 PR G$50 slot in the complete sets. So maybe this was done just to shut me up.
I don't see how a "complete" set can actually be complete without the reverse proof.
By the way, the Silver Eagle proof and complete sets do include the reverse proof. Different mintmark from the regular proofs.
<< <i> These coins will win the "Flip of the Year" Award IMO... >>
VERY hard to predict. There are a lot of flippers with Jeff. FS Gold DAWGS who felt just as certain. Clearly the ASE and AGE Anniv. sets were great flips, with the ASE set being a delayed great flip. Of course, the Plats. potential will heavily depend on mintage. Eric had some good posts earlier in the year looking at this.
I want one set to collect, could care less about registry anything, and plan to buy one to flip if the mintages are low. There are probably many like me in these regards. Of course, what is "low" for plats? What will the collector demand be for the RP? As others have said, I think that a lot of collectors who could generally care less about Plats. will want the RP to complete their RP sets. I look forward to Erics thoughts on this set. I wish that the set was three 1 oz. coins (although my wallet is glad that this is not the case) as mintages and sales would certainly be low.
Phenomenal thread. Just like old times... Great expertise.
MHO is that the Registry makes more sense for the older series. The sets that depend on 69s vs 70s are too vulnerable, I believe, to vicissitudes in grading standards/market acceptance for an exceedingly narrow range of opinion.
The substantial value of this series has to do with intrinsic beauty, the constant obv cum changing reverse theme as mentioned, the low mintages and the precious metal composition. The Reverse Proof is included in that guess for the long term, without regard to its Registry inclusion.
The Registry works fine for the new series as well. While there are far more 70 grade coins with each passing year the older 70s are still hard to find despite some high pops. I have yet to see a 1989 $10 PCGS MS70 with a pop of 40 go up for sale but saw 3 93 $50 PR70s sell in a span of 2 weeks pop 6. I'm sure more older (86-02) coins will end up grading 70 over time but if you think about how many collectors want to get their hands on them it is still an interesting thing to collect. IMO.
*Sales Holds I have been thinking about the behavior of the market lately. We have seen quite a bit of excitement over the sales of all the gold and unc-w plats being put on hold because of a bullion price spike. Speculation about the end of the programs for this year in gold were not justified and ran counter to the mints clearly stated intentions. The mint has sunk cost in a premium value product that they can only melt when the new coin comes out if they have not sold them by then. There is no rational financial incentive to not reprice and offer for sale the remaining 2007-w coinage in inventory be it silver gold or platinum. The mint has stated in writing that they plan to correct the price to market reality and start selling platinum-w coinage again and I for one believe them.
*2006-W gold and its lessons What I find much more interesting than the recent excitement over momentary price related holds is the behavior of the 2006-w unc gold eagles and the gold first spouse coins. Lets take the 2006-w $25 gold uncirculated half for example. It has a mintage of roughly 15,000 coins. The strongest buyer I have ever seen or heard of had open buys on that coin at $625 for months and pulled thousands of the coins off the market and the “effective mintage” that the market “sees” is about 12,000 coins. As soon as he stopped buying the price for those coins crashed back to todays 2007-w gold mint issue price in typical MS-69 grades. Now I hear about those who are all excited because the mintage of the 2007-s gold may come in below the 2006-w gold in the 10,000-12,000 coin range but so what. Even with massive total populations and somewhat established collector bases the fractional uncirculated gold eagles with issue prices over $250 really need to fall under 10,000 coins to gain traction following the initial after market price spike. The 1991 gold half took 15 years to develop and it had the help of guys like Universal Coin buying them for 401K programs by the roll. It was not collector base demand that produced the $1000 price tag on those coins.
The reverse proof $50 gold with its 10,000 mintage is a single issue type coin (for the moment) and its pricing behavior is acting like a proof. It is also 2.5 times rarer than its next closest proof finish sibling. Unless you just like the beauty of the cameo gold eagle proofs stay off the coins. There are just too many of them. The 2001 gold eagle half had a 23,000 mintage and 6 years later its still fairly soft. Therefore the new issue fractional proof gold that has not had years to find homes is in trouble in the 20,000-30,000 mintage range.
*First Spouse Gold The first spouse series with the 20,000 running mintages do not have massive total populations to produce bottle necks or established collector bases to draw from. The first hags are going to hurt the flippers at some point if they have not already and the mintages will fall creating the keys of the series. Once the mintages fall under the 20,000 current caps the values of the older spouses may be in jeopardy. The more I study them the more I tell my friends to stay off the first hags until the mintages drop. Long term only spouse gold with excellent designs and non set based popularity have a prayer at 20,000 coins.
*Pending Platinum Anniversary sets Will finish later *Unc 2007-w Unc Plats Will finish later
For gold, I think everyone knew they would go on sale again.
Platinum is a different animal. It's been reported the Mint buys Platinum on the open market. So, yes if they still have coins minted and sitting in the vault, I think we all know they will reprice them and put them up for sale. If, however, they don't have coins sitting in the vault and they must go to the open market to buy platinum, will they do that or will they close the series for the year. ?
The mint is in the business of minting coins and they have a Xmas catalog, so it would make sence to have as much product available for sale as possible.
For the Spouses:
Unless gold collapses to $300. These are solid investments. 70's will always be in vogue. There are less than 200 First Strike Adams 70's. I think there will always be a market for these.
Secondly, think holding long term might be key. Case in point is I have bought one Silver Proof since '86. I think three are selling above $100. The others not. But as part of my portfolio I have 17 coins @ $30 = $510 + three others worth $500 for a total of $1000. Not bad for putting $30 away once a year.
Now the Spouses are significantly more, but if someone wants to collect them, I would suggest buying them from the Mint. Ten years down the road, you'll have a tidy little sum of money to retire on.
"Platinum is a different animal. It's been reported the Mint buys Platinum on the open market. So, yes if they still have coins minted and sitting in the vault, I think we all know they will reprice them and put them up for sale. If, however, they don't have coins sitting in the vault and they must go to the open market to buy platinum, will they do that or will they close the series for the year. ?"
I agree what they have in inventory now is more than likely all there will be. We know for certain the 4 coin set, $100, $50 and $25 were not sold out at the time they were pulled for pricing. There will be more coins issued the question is how many. We have a reasonable range if the tenth is in fact near dead. 4,000 would be nice for the quarter and half.
"For the Spouses:
Unless gold collapses to $300. These are solid investments. 70's will always be in vogue. There are less than 200 First Strike Adams 70's. I think there will always be a market for these."
The models for coins in this price range with mintages this high are not kind. Most of us that collect coins not just flip have limited funds so if you are going to put up something like $15,000 for the purchase a whole series they might as well be rare with excellent long term ratios that indicate they can pull multiples of melt. The FS gold is low risk but so are most moderns bought for 1.25 times melt at the time of issue-they can all only fall to melt. The issue is if you have limited funds to collect with buy the moderns with fundamentals indicating large scale price growth is likely. 70 grade coins always bring a premium and in most cases if you have melt plus 20 persent in a PCGS-70 you're in great shape. Thats different from saying a 69 is going to perform when you need to sell for retirement.
"Secondly, think holding long term might be key. "
No question. We can see fundamentals and act on them but it takes time for the results to show up. Flippers bet on short term price variations not longer term fundamentals. Good judgement and long term perspectives will keep us from following the lemmings off into the sea. There are not enough collectors to hold up the current prices on high mintage high cost moderns being issued right now.
There is no rational financial incentive to not reprice and offer for sale the remaining 2007-w coinage in inventory be it silver gold or platinum. The mint has stated in writing that they plan to correct the price to market reality and start selling platinum-w coinage again and I for one believe them.
I don't see why the mint would stop selling Platinum Eagles so early in the year just because the metals have gone up in price recently. Reprice and sell again is a different story. I also believe that the mint made more Platinum Eagles than last year. I don't think they will restrike this year but I do believe there are still some Platinum Eagles left at the mint...
I think the 5 or so "non-spouse" coins (like the Jefferson Liberty) have the best chance at being winners. It's a much smaller and more affordable "set" with classic designs. In addition, a complete "non-spouse" set should be available several years before the complete spouse set.
<< <i>more I study them the more I tell my friends to stay off the first hags until the mintages drop. >>
Yes sir re!!! Tomorrow's keys are todays losers......reverse herd mentality at it's finest. The 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 unc was unpopular as was the 2000 LOC bimetal $10 unc and the 2001 Capital visitor's center $5 unc. To top that off the majority of people that purchased these coins went for the proofs and ignored the uncs. The real low mintage keys take time to mature, kind of like a fine wine.
There is no doubt that the plat coins will be the winners. The fewer that buy them the better which is one of the reasons they will be the best. The Mint only mints what they have orders for ("mint" includes the distribution) and if the price is so high that only idiots like me are willing to spend their retirement on them then the low mintage will be worth the divorce.
The one thing the old farts don't get is that with the population explosion there is also a collector explosion. With more coinage changes in the last 20 years than in the 200 before we are seeing all kinds of new collectors from the basic collector that is happy to have filled their "book" with whatever to the anal b@stards like me that insist on at least getting it PCGS graded (duh! What else?).
The bottom line is that all coinage is an opportunity and if you are willing to put the time and effort in than it will always work out. Wel, mostly.
With that said I absolutely deplore the whole 1st Spouse coin concept. The Presidents are in manganese and their wives get .999 gold. PLEASE! The problem is that this series is going to be sought after both from a numismatic standpoint and a female standpoint so it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later.
My vote is for Jefferson's Liberty because at least we see a little cleavage! She also reminds me of am incredible, well let's not go there after all I am a newlywed. I image Dolly was hot in her day but so far the spouse coins have been a little more than scary. IMHO. Would it be so bad to have Dolly in a T-back?
We are all well aware the key to this sets behavior is what is the mintage limit going to be and how many different collector bases will want them. The latest is they still plan on having a two coin set containing a cameo proof and a reverse proof platinum half. Like anything else in life its all subject to change but thats the story for now and I believe its likely. No one has mentioned a price yet but $1700 to $1900 should certainly be the range and that price point on a special issue set is not normally associated with mintage limits of say 5,000 coins. Notice that this price point is well below the Gold anniversary set from last year with its 10,000 mintage and well below the proof platinum eagle 4 coin sets with their typical 5,000+ set annual sales. No one seams to know what the mintage is going to be but I have never heard anyone (who should know) suggest that the mintage will be less than 10,000 sets and higher numbers are commonly mentioned.
Lets look at who might want them: Gold anniversary set collectors -likely significant perentage because if you could afford the gold ann. set you can afford the plats Silver anniversary set collectors- most silver anniversary set collectors will see the plat ann. set as too pricey. Proof plat half collectors- most would like one and most can afford it. Proof plat 4 coin set collectors- many would like them and ceratinly can afford them Proof plat $100 collectors- some may want them and most can afford them. Proof plat quarter collectors- some may want them and a minor percentage will view the ann set as in their price range. Unc-w plat half collectors- most would like one and most can afford it. Unc-w plat all other denominations- may want the anniv set but its a weak link. And we can not forget the ever present flippers- only problem is is flipper initial interest produces little longer term price strength and does nothing but make the post price spike correction more brutal.
Thats plenty of demand for a 10,000 issue coin. Lets say 1/3 gold anniversary set collectors buy one thats 3000 sets gone. Lets say proof plat half collectors put away a number equal to the key date 2004 which appears to be a strong relative sales low point......thats 5000 coins sold.
SO after just the big blocks of interested groups have bough what they need close to 8,000 sets may be spoken for and we have not even looked at the smaller above mentioned players or the flippers. The bottom line is if you can afford to buy the set do so especially if the mintage limit is 10,000 or less with a 1 per household limit. The set should spike up front and back off about 30% off the first year high whatever that is if the coins behave per the most common model.
If the set comes in at 15,000 mintage limit all the interested parties have to buy and hold for the long term to suck up the 15,000 coins. The coins may spike due to flipper irrationality but the set is going back to a fraction over melt.
I don't think the plat anniversary sets are going to do anything like as well as the gold and silver sets did. First off the gold set had a coin in it 2.5 times rarer than any other proof surface $50 gold eagle and it was low enough to have a chance at long term mintage dominance in the $50 proof set. The Gold anniversary set represents the same old key date price flash......one that is completely justifiable. Same can be said for the silver eagles. Two of the three coins were outright keys or deap semi keys.
If the 10,000+ estimates are true the platinum anniversary sets are going to be kings of nothing so they are going to be totally dependent on collector groups other than the half collector base to carry the day. Lets just look at the proof plat half approximate mintages:
2004 proof plat - 5000 2005 proof plat - 5900 2003 proof plat - 7100 2006 proof plat - 7900 2001 proof plat - 8200 2002 proof plat - 8800 reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series! 2000 proof plat - 11000 1999 proof plat - 11000 1998 proof plat - 14000 1997 proof plat - 15000 2007 proof plat - 15000+ melt till we all pass from this life, no rational collector driven convergence of events can save this coin!
If the set comes out at 10000 or less with a one per household limit we should all place our order IMHO.
But to you new guys there is a much better way...........if you hold a long term view. With the $1800 or whatever bucks you are going to have to pay for the 10th anniversary platinum eagle set go buy a 2006-w uncirculated half legislative platinum eagle and a very nice 2007-w Uncirculated presidential plat half. You will have $1500+800= $2300 in the pair with mintages in the 2600 to 5000 range. If you can get them in pcgs-70 cheap through cracking out 2006-w 69s and looking through a bunch of 2007-w plats do it. The same is true of the unc-w quarter also.
2003 proof plat - 7100 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $100 OVER MELT WITH A 7,100 MINTAGE?
2006 proof plat - 7900 - SHOULD BE OK AS PART OF SPECIAL 3 YEAR SERIES.
2001 proof plat - 8200 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $50 OVER MELT WITH A 8,200 MINTAGE?
2002 proof plat - 8800 - CAN'T GET TOO EXCITED WITH THIS ONE WITH THE COINS MENTIONED ABOVE
reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series! IF IT WERE SILVER IT WOULD BE SUPER, DUPER COOL. IF IT WERE GOLD IT WOULD BE SUPER COOL (AND IS). MADE OF PLATINUM WITH THE LIKES OF THE COINS LISTED ABOVE?? NOT SURE.
2000 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1999 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1998 proof plat - 14000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1997 proof plat - 15000 - KILLER COIN IN PERFECT 70 GRADE. OTHER THAN THAT - NO ALL THAT INTERESTING
2007 proof plat - 15000+ melt till we all pass from this life, no rational collector driven convergence of events can save this coin!
BUT ERIC MY FRIEND - YOU MAY BE WRONG - THERE IS ONE THING THAT CAN SAVE THIS COIN AND, IN FACT, MAKE IT MUCH MORE INTERESTING. COME ON - YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS - TELL EVERYONE!!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
2003 proof plat - 7100 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $100 OVER MELT WITH A 7,100 MINTAGE?
2006 proof plat - 7900 - SHOULD BE OK AS PART OF SPECIAL 3 YEAR SERIES.
2001 proof plat - 8200 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $50 OVER MELT WITH A 8,200 MINTAGE?
2002 proof plat - 8800 - CAN'T GET TOO EXCITED WITH THIS ONE WITH THE COINS MENTIONED ABOVE
reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series! IF IT WERE SILVER IT WOULD BE SUPER, DUPER COOL. IF IT WERE GOLD IT WOULD BE SUPER COOL (AND IS). MADE OF PLATINUM WITH THE LIKES OF THE COINS LISTED ABOVE?? NOT SURE.
2000 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1999 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1998 proof plat - 14000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1997 proof plat - 15000 - KILLER COIN IN PERFECT 70 GRADE. OTHER THAN THAT - NO ALL THAT INTERESTING
2007 proof plat - 15000+ melt till we all pass from this life, no rational collector driven convergence of events can save this coin!
BUT ERIC MY FRIEND - YOU MAY BE WRONG - THERE IS ONE THING THAT CAN SAVE THIS COIN AND, IN FACT, MAKE IT MUCH MORE INTERESTING. COME ON - YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS - TELL EVERYONE!!
Wondercoin >>
I agree with all your comments about the proof platinum eagles (and changing reverse Unc-w). They likely will be THE MEGA SET in our lifetimes but that does not indicate they are all created equal. And yes if they melt the coins it could produce new rarity relationships between the issues.
Lets say proof plat half collectors put away a number equal to the key date 2004 which appears to be a strong relative sales low point......thats 5000 coins sold. Four coin proof plat collectors can afford the sets and just 1 in 3 buys a set and keeps it. Thats .33*5000= 1,650
Does this involve possible double counting? Four coin set collectors automatically get the half. The 5000 half oz. coins sold in 2004 included singles and those in sets. There are probably less than 5000 collectors of plat halves only.
reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series!
Somewhat offset by the fact that it would be the only platinum coin (so far) with a reverse proof finish.
Actually, my answer was a "10th Anniversary First Strike" slab - just as we saw with the 3-pc Gold Anniv set - making the regular DCAM gold coin the key to the series at this point in "70" grade! These coins, even today, trade around $6,500 - $7,500, while the low mintage Rev Proof 70 Gold only fetches $4,000 - $5,250.
Best I know, PCGS has not decided yet whether they want the "hassle" of these coins getting submitted in sealed boxes as had to be done with the silver and gold sets last year in order for the DCAM regular issue coins to get the First Strike label. And, it is a BIG hassle for PCGS. On top of that, I understand that PCGS may have lost submissions later on due to its stringent First Strike requirements. But, I was in favor of that treatment for the silver and gold sets last year and would be, once again, in favor of specially recognizing exactly where the $50 reg Proof Plat came from this year as well. And, if PCGS elects to give collectors the chance to submit these sets for First Strike 10th Anniv labeling on both coins - IMHO, the reg Proof coins from these sets may have a chance to be a "winner" as well.
Agreed?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Lets say proof plat half collectors put away a number equal to the key date 2004 which appears to be a strong relative sales low point......thats 5000 coins sold. Four coin proof plat collectors can afford the sets and just 1 in 3 buys a set and keeps it. Thats .33*5000= 1,650
Does this involve possible double counting? Four coin set collectors automatically get the half. The 5000 half oz. coins sold in 2004 included singles and those in sets. There are probably less than 5000 collectors of plat halves only.
Correct.....Sorry I made the change. It was late when I wrote it.
ericj96
The reverse proof may enjoy some special interest that could help the coin at 10000 or less. A 15,000 mintage RP is too much.
Actually, my answer was a "10th Anniversary First Strike" slab - just as we saw with the 3-pc Gold Anniv set - making the regular DCAM gold coin the key to the series at this point in "70" grade! These coins, even today, trade around $6,500 - $7,500, while the low mintage Rev Proof 70 Gold only fetches $4,000 - $5,250.
I agree with you but also I feel that this point of view holds very little hope for long term holders. A flipper would benefit from that type of situation more than a long term holder would...I guess in the end this scenario would add value to the regular coins but, how much long term value can such coin have after the pops go up?
Been out of town for a while, but love all the latest insight and speculation. Thanks everyone.
That said, Wondercoin (and others), do you really believe that these labels on slabs will mean ANYTHING in ten years? Maybe I'm just way off the beaten track, but labels such as "First Strike" and "10th Anniversary" just seem like cheap gimmicks to get people to submit more coins. They hold absolutely no interest to me--or to other coin collectors I know. It's the coin itself that counts, and always will, IMHO.
Gritsman Up until 2007 - the First Strike label has meant VIRTUALLY NOTHING when it came to Platinum coins (probably because the coins are super low mintage already without a "gimmick" holder as you put it). BUT - that seemed to change with the First Strike Proof Platinum coins here this year - take a look at what these coins have fetched on Teletrade (ex: $4,500++ for the 2007-W $50 PR70DC coin)! Hence, my comment concerning what might happen if these proof $50 Plats from the 10th Anniv set get specially labeled.
Obviously, no one knows for sure the future for coins with the First Strike label or myriad other labels, such as World Trade Center coins, etc., etc., etc. But, my question back to you would be this -
If there was a 1916-D Dime (one of the keys to the series) and the coin had been preserved in a manner that, without question, it could be shown that the coin was produced in the first 30 days of the year 1916 - would that coin have any added value when it was being sold along side equally graded 1916-D dimes without such documentation?
What say you?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
"Up until 2007 - the First Strike label has meant VIRTUALLY NOTHING when it came to Platinum coins (probably because the coins are super low mintage already without a "gimmick" holder). BUT - that seemed to change with the First Strike Proof Platinum coins here this year - take a look at what these coins have fetched on Teletrade (ex: $4,500++ for the 2007-W $50 PR70DC coin)! Hence, my comment concerning what might happen if these proof $50 Plats from the 10th Anniv set get specially labeled"
Wow, Wondercoin. That's great! I actually have 2 of the 2007 UNC PCGS 70 First Strike $50s. May I ask your advice on when I should sell them? Should I sell them now or wait until January 08? Are the UNCs doing well too or just the proofs? I have an unopened 4 coin set of the proofs. Any advice on them?
Also, may I ask where I would be best to sell them? eBay? BST? Teletrade?
That is a wonderful analogy regarding the 1916-D dime and First Strike designation. All of those dimes were struck at the end of the year, so to me there is no value add. However, that does not mean someone would not pay more for it. Never doubt the power of marketing, especially to newcomers.
One more thought on Plats. It appears the prices for the 2006-W $100 coin are really soft right now. Platinum prices are through the roof ($1,454 on Kitco as I type) yet two of these PCGS MS69 coins sold for $1,731 and $1,838 respectively on eBay in the last few days.
Are there opportunities right now to pick up potential home runs or has the market softened for this coin? The lower sale is roughly 20 percent over melt! I think it is a buying opportunity myself, but I am curious as to others thoughts.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
<< <i> If there was a 1916-D Dime (one of the keys to the series) and the coin had been preserved in a manner that, without question, it could be shown that the coin was produced in the first 30 days of the year 1916 - would that coin have any added value when it was being sold along side equally graded 1916-D dimes without such documentation?
What say you?
Wondercoin >>
Hm... I guess I would have to say "No." As to 'why not', I am not sure. I always enjoyed First Day Covers when I collected stamps, but I guess it just doesn't matter to me when, in a run of coins, my coin got minted. The only exception is if First Strike also meant 'better strike', but that's what grading is for. I guess I still predict that in 10 years collectors aren't going to care about this. Speculators, perhaps. It'll be fun to see what happens. Thanks for your thoughts!
Comments
<< <i>200 >>
Great thread Eric
<< <i>GAT,
Lets take the 2006-2008w mint state changing reverse plat halves for example.
2006-w mintage say 2577 coins and 50% can make PCGS-70 because the coins looked good as a group.
2007-w mintage very roughly 4000 struck and sold with a 20 percent PCGS-70 grade through rate because the coins as a group are the worst dogs I have seen in a while.
2008-w mintage very roughly 4800 struck and sold and 35 % can make 70.
That gives us 1260 pcgs-70 06w, 800 pcgs-70 07w and 1680 pcgs-70 08w coins making up a super grade set. In the year of issue lots of coins are around and looking for homes. Its easy to cherry pick killers in the year of issue. 3 Years out finding one at all can be rough and most will be 70 slab rejects.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity to put together these VERY VERY LOW mintage sets in Ultra grade and you need to be picking up the finest stuff while its around. I can tell you that IMHO the 2007-w pcgs-70 half has a chance of being more expensive than a 70 grade 06-w in 5 years. The mintages are one very important supply side variable in determining set value but we can not forget relative condition rarity either. This is the time each year when the coins come out to be SERIOUSLY PICKY regardless of your personal preference for Govt packaging or 70 slabs.
Thanks
Ericj96 >>
2008-W ??? Did you hop into a time machine??
One issue that will affect availability is the number of sets vs. number of singles.
For the 2006-W uncirculated platinum coins, the number of sets exceeded the number of singles of any denomination. That seems to be the case for some of the recent years' proofs also.
I would guess that a substantial portion of each year's sets are bought by "deep pocket" collectors who intend to keep them as sets. This limits the number of single coins available to those who are collecting a particular denomination - especially if they want to include the original mint packaging for the single coin option.
For example, if recent mintage estimates are correct, there are only 588 mint boxes and certificates available for the single 2006-W uncirculated $50 platinum, and only 687 for the $25 coin. So that's the limit of the number of collectors that can own each of these coins with original mint packaging.
For collectors willing to skip the packaging, the number of single coins available is a function of the number of sets that are broken up. This quantity can't be known with any precision, but I would guess that no more than one-third of the 2006-W uncirculated platinum four-coin sets will be broken up to be sold as singles. That would supply less than 700 coins of each denomination into the marketplace.
So single denomination collectors face two kinds of scarcity in regard to the uncirculated 2006-W platinum coins - they are competing for an extremely limited supply of single-coin original mint packaging, and they are competing with set collectors for the particular denomination they collect. In future years, this could make acquiring these coins even more challenging than the apparent low mintage numbers would suggest.
My opinion only.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>I would guess that a substantial portion of each year's sets are bought by "deep pocket" collectors who intend to keep them as sets >>
Actually, quite the opposite may be true. We flippers always consider a risk/reward ratio....and if by buying the set we can reduce the risk (because of the intrinsic value of the underlying metal) because it's a better "value" on the set...we buy the set.....
FloridaBill
<< <i>I would guess that no more than one-third of the 2006-W uncirculated platinum four-coin sets will be broken up to be sold as singles >>
Actually, there are probably less than 100 original, mint sealed sets in existence. And to think I sold one for $4700 when they first became available. Mulligan?
FloridaBill
Actually, there are probably less than 100 original, mint sealed sets in existence.
It's possible, but I would be inclined to bet there are quite a few more. I believe the high set-to-single ratio goes back to the time before platinum sets became such hot speculative items.
Besides, I would imagine there must be more than 100 collectors in the entire country who are wealthy enough and interested enough to buy the four-coin sets for collecting rather than investing.
Many of these collectors probably get their sets slabbed, for registry or other purposes. So there may be a low number of "original" sets, but even after the sets are slabbed, many collectors would probably not wish to break them up.
It's not only platinum. Another unexpected rarity was the 1997 Jackie Robinson uncirculated $5 gold. Of the 5,174 coins struck, I believe that over 3,000 of them were sold as part of 4-coin sets. I think there is a solid collector base for sets as well as singles.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>GAT,
Lets take the 2006-2008w mint state changing reverse plat halves for example.
2006-w mintage say 2577 coins and 50% can make PCGS-70 because the coins looked good as a group.
2007-w mintage very roughly 4000 struck and sold with a 20 percent PCGS-70 grade through rate because the coins as a group are the worst dogs I have seen in a while.
2008-w mintage very roughly 4800 struck and sold and 35 % can make 70.
That gives us 1260 pcgs-70 06w, 800 pcgs-70 07w and 1680 pcgs-70 08w coins making up a super grade set. In the year of issue lots of coins are around and looking for homes. Its easy to cherry pick killers in the year of issue. 3 Years out finding one at all can be rough and most will be 70 slab rejects.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity to put together these VERY VERY LOW mintage sets in Ultra grade and you need to be picking up the finest stuff while its around. I can tell you that IMHO the 2007-w pcgs-70 half has a chance of being more expensive than a 70 grade 06-w in 5 years. The mintages are one very important supply side variable in determining set value but we can not forget relative condition rarity either. This is the time each year when the coins come out to be SERIOUSLY PICKY regardless of your personal preference for Govt packaging or 70 slabs.
Thanks
Ericj96 >>
2008-W ??? Did you hop into a time machine??
Answer:
No time machine here but it would be nice. I have no idea what the 08 numbers will look like other than knowing that a very high unc/proof direct mint issue ratio is .6. So typical proof sales times .6 is likely 4-5k. I was not really trying to predict that years sales. We were talking about why pick up years other than the mintage keys. My illustration was meant to show how contition rarity can impact the set longer term when the good coins have found homes and just the slab rejects are for sale.
Ericj96
PS: Have not studied the gold issue for 2006-w because the various mintage estimates do not deviate much from each other as a percentage. I just took a serious look at the Unc-w plats because the numbers floating around were at odds by 40 percent.
PSS: Thanks guys for your help making this thread as strong as it has been......Thanks to all!
Ren
Scenario #1 - If the RP Plat comes in with a mintage above 10,000 we must ask ourselves what will be the collectible value of such piece given that Platinum is generally considered to be a low mintage coin. Will the novelty of a RP Plat attract enough collectors to absorve a high mintage issue? Will the coin be popular with previous purchasers of Gold and Silver RPs becoming extinct on arrival?
Scenario #2 - The coin is announced with a high mintage and is offered too late in the year. Flippers loose interest based on the high mintage announcement and the coin ends up selling poorly. The mint cut sales short and the coin ends up with a low mintage. This scenario is highly unlikely since selling the coins in December practically means that the mint will probably have them minted prior to starting sales.
Scenario #3 - The mint announces a mintage below 10,000 but adds a one per household restriction. Will the sets go mostly to flippers creating an artificial market at first? How fast will they sell considering how expensive Platinum is? What will be the value of an RP70 in this case? Will interest be strong considering th ereaction to the Jefferson's Liberty in a likely situation?
With all the excitement around Platinum lately I am curious to know how the Reverse Proof Platinum Eagle will impact the series.
This might partly depend on whether it's needed for registry sets.
The 2006-W reverse proof gold eagle is not currently part of any registry set. If the same becomes true for the reverse proof platinum eagle, many collectors may not even feel the need to obtain one.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Interesting! I didn't realize that the RP Gold was not included as part of the Registry sets. I guess that leaves this up to true collectors that feel the need to have it and flippers. After all, this will probably be the biggest flip of the Year. In that case there might be a scenario #4 - Since the coin is not required as part of the registry sets, interest is low at first keeping mintage low. In that case the coin might have a strong value based on mintage. I really doubt senario #4 might even have a chance. These coins will win the "Flip of the Year" Award IMO...
Box of 20
I think maybe 5000 and one per household.
<< <i>The 2006-W reverse proof gold eagle is not currently part of any registry set. If the same becomes true for the reverse proof platinum eagle, many collectors may not even feel the need to obtain one. >>
Actually that is not quite correct. The 2006-W reverse is included in the complete sets as I personally lobbied to get it included.
The 2006-W reverse is included in the complete sets as I personally lobbied to get it included.
Using the "View Set Composition" links, I don't see it on any of the complete set compositions on the registry website. Just in the 20th Anniversary Eagles set.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Eric
<< <i>The 2006-W reverse is included in the complete sets as I personally lobbied to get it included.
Using the "View Set Composition" links, I don't see it on any of the complete set compositions on the registry website. Just in the 20th Anniversary Eagles set. >>
I see what you are saying which is actually interesting. It seems that PCGS allows the reverse proof or the regular proof in the 2006 PR G$50 slot in the complete sets. So maybe this was done just to shut me up.
It seems that PCGS allows the reverse proof or the regular proof in the 2006 PR G$50 slot in the complete sets. So maybe this was done just to shut me up.
I don't see how a "complete" set can actually be complete without the reverse proof.
By the way, the Silver Eagle proof and complete sets do include the reverse proof. Different mintmark from the regular proofs.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i> These coins will win the "Flip of the Year" Award IMO... >>
VERY hard to predict. There are a lot of flippers with Jeff. FS Gold DAWGS who felt just as certain. Clearly the ASE and AGE Anniv. sets were great flips, with the ASE set being a delayed great flip. Of course, the Plats. potential will heavily depend on mintage. Eric had some good posts earlier in the year looking at this.
I want one set to collect, could care less about registry anything, and plan to buy one to flip if the mintages are low. There are probably many like me in these regards. Of course, what is "low" for plats? What will the collector demand be for the RP? As others have said, I think that a lot of collectors who could generally care less about Plats. will want the RP to complete their RP sets. I look forward to Erics thoughts on this set. I wish that the set was three 1 oz. coins (although my wallet is glad that this is not the case) as mintages and sales would certainly be low.
Great thread. THANKS ERIC.
MHO is that the Registry makes more sense for the older series. The sets that depend on 69s vs 70s are too vulnerable, I believe, to vicissitudes in grading standards/market acceptance for an exceedingly narrow range of opinion.
The substantial value of this series has to do with intrinsic beauty, the constant obv cum changing reverse theme as mentioned, the low mintages and the precious metal composition. The Reverse Proof is included in that guess for the long term, without regard to its Registry inclusion.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I have been thinking about the behavior of the market lately. We have seen quite a bit of excitement over the sales of all the gold and unc-w plats being put on hold because of a bullion price spike. Speculation about the end of the programs for this year in gold were not justified and ran counter to the mints clearly stated intentions. The mint has sunk cost in a premium value product that they can only melt when the new coin comes out if they have not sold them by then. There is no rational financial incentive to not reprice and offer for sale the remaining 2007-w coinage in inventory be it silver gold or platinum. The mint has stated in writing that they plan to correct the price to market reality and start selling platinum-w coinage again and I for one believe them.
*2006-W gold and its lessons
What I find much more interesting than the recent excitement over momentary price related holds is the behavior of the 2006-w unc gold eagles and the gold first spouse coins. Lets take the 2006-w $25 gold uncirculated half for example. It has a mintage of roughly 15,000 coins. The strongest buyer I have ever seen or heard of had open buys on that coin at $625 for months and pulled thousands of the coins off the market and the “effective mintage” that the market “sees” is about 12,000 coins. As soon as he stopped buying the price for those coins crashed back to todays 2007-w gold mint issue price in typical MS-69 grades. Now I hear about those who are all excited because the mintage of the 2007-s gold may come in below the 2006-w gold in the 10,000-12,000 coin range but so what. Even with massive total populations and somewhat established collector bases the fractional uncirculated gold eagles with issue prices over $250 really need to fall under 10,000 coins to gain traction following the initial after market price spike. The 1991 gold half took 15 years to develop and it had the help of guys like Universal Coin buying them for 401K programs by the roll. It was not collector base demand that produced the $1000 price tag on those coins.
The reverse proof $50 gold with its 10,000 mintage is a single issue type coin (for the moment) and its pricing behavior is acting like a proof. It is also 2.5 times rarer than its next closest proof finish sibling. Unless you just like the beauty of the cameo gold eagle proofs stay off the coins. There are just too many of them. The 2001 gold eagle half had a 23,000 mintage and 6 years later its still fairly soft. Therefore the new issue fractional proof gold that has not had years to find homes is in trouble in the 20,000-30,000 mintage range.
*First Spouse Gold
The first spouse series with the 20,000 running mintages do not have massive total populations to produce bottle necks or established collector bases to draw from. The first hags are going to hurt the flippers at some point if they have not already and the mintages will fall creating the keys of the series. Once the mintages fall under the 20,000 current caps the values of the older spouses may be in jeopardy. The more I study them the more I tell my friends to stay off the first hags until the mintages drop. Long term only spouse gold with excellent designs and non set based popularity have a prayer at 20,000 coins.
*Pending Platinum Anniversary sets
Will finish later
*Unc 2007-w Unc Plats
Will finish later
For gold, I think everyone knew they would go on sale again.
Platinum is a different animal. It's been reported the Mint buys Platinum on the open market. So, yes if they still have coins minted and sitting in the vault, I think we all know they will reprice them and put them up for sale. If, however, they don't have coins sitting in the vault and they must go to the open market to buy platinum, will they do that or will they close the series for the year. ?
The mint is in the business of minting coins and they have a Xmas catalog, so it would make sence to have as much product available for sale as possible.
For the Spouses:
Unless gold collapses to $300. These are solid investments. 70's will always be in vogue. There are less than 200 First Strike Adams 70's. I think there will always be a market for these.
Secondly, think holding long term might be key. Case in point is I have bought one Silver Proof since '86.
I think three are selling above $100. The others not. But as part of my portfolio I have 17 coins @ $30 = $510 + three others worth $500 for a total of $1000. Not bad for putting $30 away once a year.
Now the Spouses are significantly more, but if someone wants to collect them, I would suggest buying them from the Mint. Ten years down the road, you'll have a tidy little sum of money to retire on.
I agree what they have in inventory now is more than likely all there will be. We know for certain the 4 coin set, $100, $50 and $25 were not sold out at the time they were pulled for pricing. There will be more coins issued the question is how many. We have a reasonable range if the tenth is in fact near dead. 4,000 would be nice for the quarter and half.
"For the Spouses:
Unless gold collapses to $300. These are solid investments. 70's will always be in vogue. There are less than 200 First Strike Adams 70's. I think there will always be a market for these."
The models for coins in this price range with mintages this high are not kind. Most of us that collect coins not just flip have limited funds so if you are going to put up something like $15,000 for the purchase a whole series they might as well be rare with excellent long term ratios that indicate they can pull multiples of melt. The FS gold is low risk but so are most moderns bought for 1.25 times melt at the time of issue-they can all only fall to melt. The issue is if you have limited funds to collect with buy the moderns with fundamentals indicating large scale price growth is likely. 70 grade coins always bring a premium and in most cases if you have melt plus 20 persent in a PCGS-70 you're in great shape. Thats different from saying a 69 is going to perform when you need to sell for retirement.
"Secondly, think holding long term might be key. "
No question. We can see fundamentals and act on them but it takes time for the results to show up. Flippers bet on short term price variations not longer term fundamentals. Good judgement and long term perspectives will keep us from following the lemmings off into the sea. There are not enough collectors to hold up the current prices on high mintage high cost moderns being issued right now.
I don't see why the mint would stop selling Platinum Eagles so early in the year just because the metals have gone up in price recently. Reprice and sell again is a different story. I also believe that the mint made more Platinum Eagles than last year. I don't think they will restrike this year but I do believe there are still some Platinum Eagles left at the mint...
I think the 5 or so "non-spouse" coins (like the Jefferson Liberty) have the best chance at being winners. It's a much smaller and more affordable "set" with classic designs. In addition, a complete "non-spouse" set should be available several years before the complete spouse set.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>more I study them the more I tell my friends to stay off the first hags until the mintages drop. >>
Yes sir re!!!
Tomorrow's keys are todays losers......reverse herd mentality at it's finest. The 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 unc was unpopular as was the 2000 LOC bimetal $10 unc and the 2001 Capital visitor's center $5 unc. To top that off the majority of people that purchased these coins went for the proofs and ignored the uncs. The real low mintage keys take time to mature, kind of like a fine wine.
<< <i>
*Pending Platinum Anniversary sets
Will finish later
*Unc 2007-w Unc Plats
Will finish later >>
Very much looking forward to your thoughts on these Eric!!!
The one thing the old farts don't get is that with the population explosion there is also a collector explosion. With more coinage changes in the last 20 years than in the 200 before we are seeing all kinds of new collectors from the basic collector that is happy to have filled their "book" with whatever to the anal b@stards like me that insist on at least getting it PCGS graded (duh! What else?).
The bottom line is that all coinage is an opportunity and if you are willing to put the time and effort in than it will always work out. Wel, mostly.
With that said I absolutely deplore the whole 1st Spouse coin concept. The Presidents are in manganese and their wives get .999 gold. PLEASE! The problem is that this series is going to be sought after both from a numismatic standpoint and a female standpoint so it will be worth so much more than it should but at the same time, that's the breaks. Buy now or cry later.
My vote is for Jefferson's Liberty because at least we see a little cleavage! She also reminds me of am incredible, well let's not go there after all I am a newlywed. I image Dolly was hot in her day but so far the spouse coins have been a little more than scary. IMHO. Would it be so bad to have Dolly in a T-back?
We are all well aware the key to this sets behavior is what is the mintage limit going to be and how many different collector bases will want them. The latest is they still plan on having a two coin set containing a cameo proof and a reverse proof platinum half. Like anything else in life its all subject to change but thats the story for now and I believe its likely. No one has mentioned a price yet but $1700 to $1900 should certainly be the range and that price point on a special issue set is not normally associated with mintage limits of say 5,000 coins. Notice that this price point is well below the Gold anniversary set from last year with its 10,000 mintage and well below the proof platinum eagle 4 coin sets with their typical 5,000+ set annual sales. No one seams to know what the mintage is going to be but I have never heard anyone (who should know) suggest that the mintage will be less than 10,000 sets and higher numbers are commonly mentioned.
Lets look at who might want them:
Gold anniversary set collectors -likely significant perentage because if you could afford the gold ann. set you can afford the plats
Silver anniversary set collectors- most silver anniversary set collectors will see the plat ann. set as too pricey.
Proof plat half collectors- most would like one and most can afford it.
Proof plat 4 coin set collectors- many would like them and ceratinly can afford them
Proof plat $100 collectors- some may want them and most can afford them.
Proof plat quarter collectors- some may want them and a minor percentage will view the ann set as in their price range.
Unc-w plat half collectors- most would like one and most can afford it.
Unc-w plat all other denominations- may want the anniv set but its a weak link.
And we can not forget the ever present flippers- only problem is is flipper initial interest produces little longer term price strength and does nothing but make the post price spike correction more brutal.
Thats plenty of demand for a 10,000 issue coin.
Lets say 1/3 gold anniversary set collectors buy one thats 3000 sets gone.
Lets say proof plat half collectors put away a number equal to the key date 2004 which appears to be a strong relative sales low point......thats 5000 coins sold.
SO after just the big blocks of interested groups have bough what they need close to 8,000 sets may be spoken for and we have not even looked at the smaller above mentioned players or the flippers. The bottom line is if you can afford to buy the set do so especially if the mintage limit is 10,000 or less with a 1 per household limit. The set should spike up front and back off about 30% off the first year high whatever that is if the coins behave per the most common model.
If the set comes in at 15,000 mintage limit all the interested parties have to buy and hold for the long term to suck up the 15,000 coins. The coins may spike due to flipper irrationality but the set is going back to a fraction over melt.
I don't think the plat anniversary sets are going to do anything like as well as the gold and silver sets did. First off the gold set had a coin in it 2.5 times rarer than any other proof surface $50 gold eagle and it was low enough to have a chance at long term mintage dominance in the $50 proof set. The Gold anniversary set represents the same old key date price flash......one that is completely justifiable.
Same can be said for the silver eagles. Two of the three coins were outright keys or deap semi keys.
If the 10,000+ estimates are true the platinum anniversary sets are going to be kings of nothing so they are going to be totally dependent on collector groups other than the half collector base to carry the day. Lets just look at the proof plat half approximate mintages:
2004 proof plat - 5000
2005 proof plat - 5900
2003 proof plat - 7100
2006 proof plat - 7900
2001 proof plat - 8200
2002 proof plat - 8800
reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series!
2000 proof plat - 11000
1999 proof plat - 11000
1998 proof plat - 14000
1997 proof plat - 15000
2007 proof plat - 15000+ melt till we all pass from this life, no rational collector driven convergence of events can save this coin!
If the set comes out at 10000 or less with a one per household limit we should all place our order IMHO.
But to you new guys there is a much better way...........if you hold a long term view.
With the $1800 or whatever bucks you are going to have to pay for the 10th anniversary platinum eagle set go buy a 2006-w uncirculated half legislative platinum eagle and a very nice 2007-w Uncirculated presidential plat half. You will have $1500+800= $2300 in the pair with mintages in the 2600 to 5000 range. If you can get them in pcgs-70 cheap through cracking out 2006-w 69s and looking through a bunch of 2007-w plats do it. The same is true of the unc-w quarter also.
Will finish later.
Ericj96
2004 proof plat - 5000 - WHAT POTENTIAL ON THIS COIN !!
2005 proof plat - 5900 - NEAT COIN - GREAT POTENTIAL!!
2003 proof plat - 7100 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $100 OVER MELT WITH A 7,100 MINTAGE?
2006 proof plat - 7900 - SHOULD BE OK AS PART OF SPECIAL 3 YEAR SERIES.
2001 proof plat - 8200 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $50 OVER MELT WITH A 8,200 MINTAGE?
2002 proof plat - 8800 - CAN'T GET TOO EXCITED WITH THIS ONE WITH THE COINS MENTIONED ABOVE
reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series! IF IT WERE SILVER IT WOULD BE SUPER, DUPER COOL. IF IT WERE GOLD IT WOULD BE SUPER COOL (AND IS). MADE OF PLATINUM WITH THE LIKES OF THE COINS LISTED ABOVE?? NOT SURE.
2000 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1999 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1998 proof plat - 14000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1997 proof plat - 15000 - KILLER COIN IN PERFECT 70 GRADE. OTHER THAN THAT - NO ALL THAT INTERESTING
2007 proof plat - 15000+ melt till we all pass from this life, no rational collector driven convergence of events can save this coin!
BUT ERIC MY FRIEND - YOU MAY BE WRONG - THERE IS ONE THING THAT CAN SAVE THIS COIN AND, IN FACT, MAKE IT MUCH MORE INTERESTING. COME ON - YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS - TELL EVERYONE!!
Wondercoin
<< <i>My 'racing form" comments in bold (just my 2 cents):
2004 proof plat - 5000 - WHAT POTENTIAL ON THIS COIN !!
2005 proof plat - 5900 - NEAT COIN - GREAT POTENTIAL!!
2003 proof plat - 7100 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $100 OVER MELT WITH A 7,100 MINTAGE?
2006 proof plat - 7900 - SHOULD BE OK AS PART OF SPECIAL 3 YEAR SERIES.
2001 proof plat - 8200 - WHAT OTHER NON-PLATINUM COIN DO YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BUY FOR ABOUT $50 OVER MELT WITH A 8,200 MINTAGE?
2002 proof plat - 8800 - CAN'T GET TOO EXCITED WITH THIS ONE WITH THE COINS MENTIONED ABOVE
reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series! IF IT WERE SILVER IT WOULD BE SUPER, DUPER COOL. IF IT WERE GOLD IT WOULD BE SUPER COOL (AND IS). MADE OF PLATINUM WITH THE LIKES OF THE COINS LISTED ABOVE?? NOT SURE.
2000 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1999 proof plat - 11000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1998 proof plat - 14000 - MELT ME SO I CAN GET RARE TOO ONE DAY!
1997 proof plat - 15000 - KILLER COIN IN PERFECT 70 GRADE. OTHER THAN THAT - NO ALL THAT INTERESTING
2007 proof plat - 15000+ melt till we all pass from this life, no rational collector driven convergence of events can save this coin!
BUT ERIC MY FRIEND - YOU MAY BE WRONG - THERE IS ONE THING THAT CAN SAVE THIS COIN AND, IN FACT, MAKE IT MUCH MORE INTERESTING. COME ON - YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS - TELL EVERYONE!!
Wondercoin >>
I agree with all your comments about the proof platinum eagles (and changing reverse Unc-w). They likely will be THE MEGA SET in our lifetimes but that does not indicate they are all created equal. And yes if they melt the coins it could produce new rarity relationships between the issues.
Ericj96
The thing that could really help make the 07 $50 a very neat collectible coin is....
I'll tell you tomorrow morning if no one has answered it.
Wondercoin
Lets say proof plat half collectors put away a number equal to the key date 2004 which appears to be a strong relative sales low point......thats 5000 coins sold.
Four coin proof plat collectors can afford the sets and just 1 in 3 buys a set and keeps it. Thats .33*5000= 1,650
Does this involve possible double counting? Four coin set collectors automatically get the half. The 5000 half oz. coins sold in 2004 included singles and those in sets. There are probably less than 5000 collectors of plat halves only.
reverse proof - 10000+ seventh place! Look back through your red book and figure out what 7th place gets you on US series!
Somewhat offset by the fact that it would be the only platinum coin (so far) with a reverse proof finish.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The thing that could really help make the 07 $50 a very neat collectible coin is....
A special "10th Anniversary Set" slab?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The Mint passes on producing the 10th Anniversary Series?
Overdate - Very close.
Actually, my answer was a "10th Anniversary First Strike" slab - just as we saw with the 3-pc Gold Anniv set - making the regular DCAM gold coin the key to the series at this point in "70" grade! These coins, even today, trade around $6,500 - $7,500, while the low mintage Rev Proof 70 Gold only fetches $4,000 - $5,250.
Best I know, PCGS has not decided yet whether they want the "hassle" of these coins getting submitted in sealed boxes as had to be done with the silver and gold sets last year in order for the DCAM regular issue coins to get the First Strike label. And, it is a BIG hassle for PCGS. On top of that, I understand that PCGS may have lost submissions later on due to its stringent First Strike requirements. But, I was in favor of that treatment for the silver and gold sets last year and would be, once again, in favor of specially recognizing exactly where the $50 reg Proof Plat came from this year as well. And, if PCGS elects to give collectors the chance to submit these sets for First Strike 10th Anniv labeling on both coins - IMHO, the reg Proof coins from these sets may have a chance to be a "winner" as well.
Agreed?
Wondercoin
<< <i>Lets say proof plat half collectors put away a number equal to the key date 2004 which appears to be a strong relative sales low point......thats 5000 coins sold. Four coin proof plat collectors can afford the sets and just 1 in 3 buys a set and keeps it. Thats .33*5000= 1,650
Does this involve possible double counting? Four coin set collectors automatically get the half. The 5000 half oz. coins sold in 2004 included singles and those in sets. There are probably less than 5000 collectors of plat halves only.
Correct.....Sorry I made the change. It was late when I wrote it.
ericj96
The reverse proof may enjoy some special interest that could help the coin at 10000 or less. A 15,000 mintage RP is too much.
I agree with you but also I feel that this point of view holds very little hope for long term holders. A flipper would benefit from that type of situation more than a long term holder would...I guess in the end this scenario would add value to the regular coins but, how much long term value can such coin have after the pops go up?
That said, Wondercoin (and others), do you really believe that these labels on slabs will mean ANYTHING in ten years? Maybe I'm just way off the beaten track, but labels such as "First Strike" and "10th Anniversary" just seem like cheap gimmicks to get people to submit more coins. They hold absolutely no interest to me--or to other coin collectors I know. It's the coin itself that counts, and always will, IMHO.
What say you?
Obviously, no one knows for sure the future for coins with the First Strike label or myriad other labels, such as World Trade Center coins, etc., etc., etc. But, my question back to you would be this -
If there was a 1916-D Dime (one of the keys to the series) and the coin had been preserved in a manner that, without question, it could be shown that the coin was produced in the first 30 days of the year 1916 - would that coin have any added value when it was being sold along side equally graded 1916-D dimes without such documentation?
What say you?
Wondercoin
Wow, Wondercoin. That's great! I actually have 2 of the 2007 UNC PCGS 70 First Strike $50s. May I ask your advice on when I should sell them? Should I sell them now or wait until January 08? Are the UNCs doing well too or just the proofs? I have an unopened 4 coin set of the proofs. Any advice on them?
Also, may I ask where I would be best to sell them? eBay? BST? Teletrade?
Sorry to ask so many questions.
That is a wonderful analogy regarding the 1916-D dime and First Strike designation. All of those dimes were struck at the end of the year, so to me there is no value add. However, that does not mean someone would not pay more for it. Never doubt the power of marketing, especially to newcomers.
One more thought on Plats. It appears the prices for the 2006-W $100 coin are really soft right now. Platinum prices are through the roof ($1,454 on Kitco as I type) yet two of these PCGS MS69 coins sold for $1,731 and $1,838 respectively on eBay in the last few days.
Are there opportunities right now to pick up potential home runs or has the market softened for this coin? The lower sale is roughly 20 percent over melt! I think it is a buying opportunity myself, but I am curious as to others thoughts.
<< <i>
If there was a 1916-D Dime (one of the keys to the series) and the coin had been preserved in a manner that, without question, it could be shown that the coin was produced in the first 30 days of the year 1916 - would that coin have any added value when it was being sold along side equally graded 1916-D dimes without such documentation?
What say you?
Wondercoin >>
Hm... I guess I would have to say "No." As to 'why not', I am not sure. I always enjoyed First Day Covers when I collected stamps, but I guess it just doesn't matter to me when, in a run of coins, my coin got minted. The only exception is if First Strike also meant 'better strike', but that's what grading is for. I guess I still predict that in 10 years collectors aren't going to care about this. Speculators, perhaps. It'll be fun to see what happens. Thanks for your thoughts!