On a somewhat similar tone the 2009 UHR may loose its uniqueness 2026 with the best of the mint release. 2021 Peace/Morgan was not as special after announced would be regular offering. The mint does have a history of watering down a good thing….2006 reverse proof silver eagles.
I am committed to the gold FH… just hope mint does not add to regular issuance along with buffalos, eagles or even relaunch 5,10,15 years from now.
Really? How much are the 2021 Morgan/Peace Dollars down since the series was continued in 2023?
2024s are dogs because the Mint over reached with its pricing and mintages, but the 2021s were home runs, and are doing just fine to this day. No less special just because the Mint increased mintages, and prices, when continuing to make them in subsequent years.
This is just the same useless noise kicked up on silver FH. Slow down and actually read comments before replying. My comment was in regards to uniqueness not value. Did I discuss uniqueness? Yes. Did I discuss value? No! Can you connect the dots? Do I need to draw another diagram?
Just like with your above comment you are lost and disconnected. Really thought with your short fade out period may be sitting out and learning from your prior consistent misunderstandings. It is almost comical.
Not sure what ouija board was used to conjure up your spirit but there are professional insight opinions posted here you should consider learning from before blowing up serious discussions. Only person you entertain is yourself. Your opinions will continue to be dismissed.
Dismiss all you want. Who cares about "uniqueness" other than to the extent it impacts value? Besides you?
So, yeah, I took the liberty of connecting dots. If the dots were not there, my bad, and I'm sorry. So now, what is the point of talking about "uniqueness," given that most of what we collect is not unique, but is part of a continuing series?
The "ouija board" was nothing more than something grabbing my fancy. I don't take my marching orders from you, @WQuarterFreddie, or anyone else.
I sit out when I have no interest, and post when I do. It's not complicated. As before, feel free to put me on Ignore, but don't waste you time lecturing me.
@Goldbully said:
The money shot from the video........looks beautiful.
Now that's a deep cameo for sure!
Not to mention high relief.
No doubt they are beautiful. To @HATTRICK's point, the only question is whether there is value buying one at a $1,000+ premium to near record gold prices with a mintage of 17,500.
It would be a no-brainer if the premium was half as much, or if the mintage was 10K or 12,500, both of which were widely speculated as being the numbers before they announced 17,500. They are clearly reaching with the brand new column at the far right of the pricing grid, just for this, and with a mintage nearly 50% higher than the most recent comps, the American Liberty High Relief Gold coins.
Either it is groovy enough to generate a sell out at nearly $4K, which will then lead to even higher prices in the secondary market. Or, it's just too much money when there is a silver version that people could have had at $104. In which case they will sit, like the 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars are. Even the RP set.
I'm on the fence, because it IS beautiful, and it IS a one-off. I can see it going either way.
So, buy it if you love it, and don't care if you might lose some money if the premium later shrinks or evaporates. But don't buy it looking for a home run. Because, at $3700, it's hard to see a lot of upside with a mintage of 17,500, and no lottery to stimulate an instant sell out.
@Martin said:
Opinions. Will the privy’s low mintage take away the desire to have a sister coin with a larger mintage?
Martin
I don't feel it will. Personally feel this will be the nicest gold coin issued since the 2009 UHR. My opinion… the gold liberty series have not been appealing and the mint somehow managed to sell those. I could see the demand holding for potentially larger 17,500 mintage.
@Martin said:
Opinions. Will the privy’s low mintage take away the desire to have a sister coin with a larger mintage?
Martin
On this? Why? 230 is just going to be unobtainable for most. Which means, for all practical purposes, they don't exist.
Their presence or absence has nothing to do with whether or not 17,500 of these are attractive at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. Because most people are never going to get their hand on one of 230 with privys.
And I again remind everyone, when we all thought all the silver medals had the privy, most people hated it. So I just can't see how the existence of something most people will never be able to afford would have any impact at all on their desire to own a sister coin that they can actually acquire.
It was MsMorrisine pointing out the crime against humanity. Get your story straight. 😝
Wondercoin.
He doesn't care if it's right as long as the word count is high enough. 🤪
Why can't I have both? 😀
Because this time I'm right.
You don't get to disavow a statement that you directly quote in a post, followed by "You are absolutely correct." Well, maybe with you, but not with me.
‘’if the privy auctions surpass the v75 age, it will be a crime’’
You are absolutely correct. But, the mint doesn’t care about dedicated collectors to a series - even a series that has run nearly 40 years like the Proof Gold Eagles. They have proven that - yes?
They will come up with this “230” coin “instant rarity” without giving a darn to the ramifications of prior actions. And then, down the road, they may well create a 100 coin rarity blowing these coins out of the water. Followed by a 50 coin ultra rarity and then one day a single Unique coin mega rarity that fetches millions of dollars out of the box and then trades and retrades until it catches up to the value of the 1933 $20 Saint! And then the Mint can claim success to its modern programs!!
Just my 2 cents!
Wondercoin.
On a somewhat similar tone the 2009 UHR may loose its uniqueness 2026 with the best of the mint release. 2021 Peace/Morgan was not as special after announced would be regular offering. The mint does have a history of watering down a good thing….2006 reverse proof silver eagles.
I am committed to the gold FH… just hope mint does not add to regular issuance along with buffalos, eagles or even relaunch 5,10,15 years from now.
Really? How much are the 2021 Morgan/Peace Dollars down since the series was continued in 2023?
2024s are dogs because the Mint over reached with its pricing and mintages, but the 2021s were home runs, and are doing just fine to this day. No less special just because the Mint increased mintages, and prices, when continuing to make them in subsequent years.
This is just the same useless noise kicked up on silver FH. Slow down and actually read comments before replying. My comment was in regards to uniqueness not value. Did I discuss uniqueness? Yes. Did I discuss value? No! Can you connect the dots? Do I need to draw another diagram?
Just like with your above comment you are lost and disconnected. Really thought with your short fade out period may be sitting out and learning from your prior consistent misunderstandings. It is almost comical.
Not sure what ouija board was used to conjure up your spirit but there are professional insight opinions posted here you should consider learning from before blowing up serious discussions. Only person you entertain is yourself. Your opinions will continue to be dismissed.
Dismiss all you want. Who cares about "uniqueness" other than to the extent it impacts value? Besides you?
So, yeah, I took the liberty of connecting dots. If the dots were not there, my bad, and I'm sorry. So now, what is the point of talking about "uniqueness," given that most of what we collect is not unique, but is part of a continuing series?
The "ouija board" was nothing more than something grabbing my fancy. I don't take my marching orders from you, @WQuarterFreddie, or anyone else.
I sit out when I have no interest, and post when I do. It's not complicated. As before, feel free to put me on Ignore, but don't waste you time lecturing me.
It's just my observation and maybe I should have said two generations from me. I base my observations on my two grandkids who are 11 and 14 and my daughter who teaches fourth grade and knows the status of the young. They are in a world that is changing fast and have no interest in collecting anything. My uncle was an avid collector and dealer, my father less, me less, my daughter very little and the grandkids no interest. This is my reality and writing on the wall. Its a matter of time no matter how little is left. I still buy lower priced shiny silver coins as I am addicted but have no dreams of any future value of what I have.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
Agreed. And, I've been trying to use my imagination.
That said, we also have to realize that there WILL be 230 of them. All at once. That will put downward pressure on them.
The one with the die will definitely be Moon Money. Maybe $100K+?
But, the rest of the 229? Not so much. An indication would be the V75 AGE, which is $20K+.
There will be 88% fewer of these, but, is pricing strictly proportional to scarcity? If so, we are talking $150K+, and I just can't get there. That's why I guesstimated $50K+.
It's as good a guess as any, given that 230 of them are going to be offered all at once. With a signed certificate.
The certificates alone seem to be worth $10K with the silver medals. Which seems crazy. Pushing another 230 of them on the market makes them that much less special.
To me, even $50K is Moon Money for something being made, right now, with the intent to create an artificial scarcity, rather than having it be organically scarce a century from its creation due to a low survival rate.
This doesn't mean I agree with @HATTRICK that these should all sell for melt. But it does mean that, even if I had the money, I wouldn't feed into what the Mint is doing by paying anything close to $50K for something they are making with an ounce of gold with the express intent of creating extreme scarcity. Particularly when there is another flavor of the exact same item, without the distraction of a privy, at a small fraction of the price.
Which is why I also disagree with @wondercoin. It's nothing more than a rare bauble that has nothing to do with me, my budget, or my collection. It doesn't hurt people who cannot afford to play. Or dealers who don't get a windfall from value they have no part in creating.
The Mint should be absolutely free to create things like this to satisfy a demand, to the extent one exists, as long as one exists. It's a brilliant way to raise a few million dollars for the federal government, at no cost to the rest of us.
Like Powerball for the state governments. I don't play because I don't buy into the dream, and have no interest in paying even more in taxes than I already do.
But I don't begrudge anyone who chooses to lower my taxes by even a little bit by buying into a dream and voluntarily playing a game with a low expected value, since the proceeds do go towards the provision of government services. Same here with whoever is willing to pay whatever to the Mint for one of 230 special coins.
@Danno44 said:
New mint press release. Yes there will be privy marks on gold however…
Did the Mint PR say 230 coins to be auctioned off??
That is, in fact, exactly what they said. As I speculated would be the case in an earlier post. Both the exact number and the method of distribution.
Good for them! These will go for mucho bucks, and, since the Mint is creating the value, it should be capturing it, rather than having it go to select large advance and and bulk purchasers, with a teeny tiny few dribbling out to the masses. This way, anyone who wants one and can afford one can buy one, direct from the source, with the proceeds going to the federal government.
@goldbuffalo said:
For the Gold, under the 'specs' it states
Privy Mark - NONE
Second,
For Gold
I wonder if all the dealers will be updating their pictures when we get the Mints Images.
The mint says Proof, I'd assume there will be shiny fields.
Otherwise they'd be mis representing the product
It says the same for the silver medal under 'specs'
Privy Mark - NONE
Really? Then what's this, right there in the description?:
"In addition, 1,794 of the medals will contain a “230” privy mark, and 230 of those privy- marked medals will include a certificate of authenticity signed by United States Mint Director Ventris C. Gibson."
Does the gold product page include that language? If not, we just might have solved the riddle.
All you are pointing to is the fact that 73,206 of the medals will not have a privy mark. Which is 100% true. Has nothing to do with the 1794 that will.
Or with the gold, a separate product that will not have any with privy marks. Because privy marks are not in the specifications, or in the description. It's REALLY not complicated.
Or this @NJCoin said
"Yes, I happen to know for sure what will happen. There is not going to be a privy on the gold coin. Take it to the bank. or continue to argue with me. And then, when I turn out to be right, argue that I am nothing more than a blind squirrel who found an acorn. It's all good."
Or maybe this @NJCoin said
"I won't merely be surprised. I'll be utterly shocked, and will be the first to admit if I am wrong. Hopefully you'll honor me with a shout out when I turn out to be right."
And then there is this @NJCoin said
I'm also not implying anything. I'm flat out saying it's not happening. But, hope springs eternal. Good luck with your gold privys.
Should I keep going. You have already said so much about the gold privy.
@HATTRICK said:
It's just my observation and maybe I should have said two generations from me. I base my observations on my two grandkids who are 11 and 14 and my daughter who teaches fourth grade and knows the status of the young. They are in a world that is changing fast and have no interest in collecting anything. My uncle was an avid collector and dealer, my father less, me less, my daughter very little and the grandkids no interest. This is my reality and writing on the wall. Its a matter of time no matter how little is left. I still buy lower priced shiny silver coins as I am addicted but have no dreams of any future value of what I have.
I agree the youngsters have no interest in collecting coins but they definitely still have interest in collecting things.
Ask your daughter if her students collect Pokemon cards and/or squishmallows characters!😂🤣
WquarterFreddie said
Ask your daughter if her students collect Pokemon cards and/or squishmallows
Yes but only because others were but short lived. Shorter than pogs
My granddaughter was into squishmallows for less than a year and my grandson collected Pokémon because I bought them for him. He lost interest after a couple months 😥
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
Imagine the disappointment after paying +/-$30,000 for one of these beauties, and ending up with your coin being one of the few that PCGS grades PR69DCAM
Maybe some will already be pre-graded, and some raw. Could be several auction options available to choose from.
I knew I remembered him promising there would be no privies on the gold, but I didn’t feel like reading all 2,578 posts he’s made about them to find it. Good work!
@Danno44 said:
New mint press release. Yes there will be privy marks on gold however…
Did the Mint PR say 230 coins to be auctioned off??
That is, in fact, exactly what they said. As I speculated would be the case in an earlier post. Both the exact number and the method of distribution.
Good for them! These will go for mucho bucks, and, since the Mint is creating the value, it should be capturing it, rather than having it go to select large advance and and bulk purchasers, with a teeny tiny few dribbling out to the masses. This way, anyone who wants one and can afford one can buy one, direct from the source, with the proceeds going to the federal government.
@goldbuffalo said:
For the Gold, under the 'specs' it states
Privy Mark - NONE
Second,
For Gold
I wonder if all the dealers will be updating their pictures when we get the Mints Images.
The mint says Proof, I'd assume there will be shiny fields.
Otherwise they'd be mis representing the product
It says the same for the silver medal under 'specs'
Privy Mark - NONE
Really? Then what's this, right there in the description?:
"In addition, 1,794 of the medals will contain a “230” privy mark, and 230 of those privy- marked medals will include a certificate of authenticity signed by United States Mint Director Ventris C. Gibson."
Does the gold product page include that language? If not, we just might have solved the riddle.
All you are pointing to is the fact that 73,206 of the medals will not have a privy mark. Which is 100% true. Has nothing to do with the 1794 that will.
Or with the gold, a separate product that will not have any with privy marks. Because privy marks are not in the specifications, or in the description. It's REALLY not complicated.
Or this @NJCoin said
"Yes, I happen to know for sure what will happen. There is not going to be a privy on the gold coin. Take it to the bank. or continue to argue with me. And then, when I turn out to be right, argue that I am nothing more than a blind squirrel who found an acorn. It's all good."
Or maybe this @NJCoin said
"I won't merely be surprised. I'll be utterly shocked, and will be the first to admit if I am wrong. Hopefully you'll honor me with a shout out when I turn out to be right."
And then there is this @NJCoin said
I'm also not implying anything. I'm flat out saying it's not happening. But, hope springs eternal. Good luck with your gold privys.
Should I keep going. You have already said so much about the gold privy.
15 years ago Choice MS generic double eagles were selling for $2,500. Triple melt price. Those weren't one-offs, 100%+ premiums to melt were normal for years.
This thing's a 35% premium. By 1205 ET next Friday they'll sell out.
@Danno44 said:
New mint press release. Yes there will be privy marks on gold however…
Did the Mint PR say 230 coins to be auctioned off??
That is, in fact, exactly what they said. As I speculated would be the case in an earlier post. Both the exact number and the method of distribution.
Good for them! These will go for mucho bucks, and, since the Mint is creating the value, it should be capturing it, rather than having it go to select large advance and and bulk purchasers, with a teeny tiny few dribbling out to the masses. This way, anyone who wants one and can afford one can buy one, direct from the source, with the proceeds going to the federal government.
@goldbuffalo said:
For the Gold, under the 'specs' it states
Privy Mark - NONE
Second,
For Gold
I wonder if all the dealers will be updating their pictures when we get the Mints Images.
The mint says Proof, I'd assume there will be shiny fields.
Otherwise they'd be mis representing the product
It says the same for the silver medal under 'specs'
Privy Mark - NONE
Really? Then what's this, right there in the description?:
"In addition, 1,794 of the medals will contain a “230” privy mark, and 230 of those privy- marked medals will include a certificate of authenticity signed by United States Mint Director Ventris C. Gibson."
Does the gold product page include that language? If not, we just might have solved the riddle.
All you are pointing to is the fact that 73,206 of the medals will not have a privy mark. Which is 100% true. Has nothing to do with the 1794 that will.
Or with the gold, a separate product that will not have any with privy marks. Because privy marks are not in the specifications, or in the description. It's REALLY not complicated.
Or this @NJCoin said
"Yes, I happen to know for sure what will happen. There is not going to be a privy on the gold coin. Take it to the bank. or continue to argue with me. And then, when I turn out to be right, argue that I am nothing more than a blind squirrel who found an acorn. It's all good."
Or maybe this @NJCoin said
"I won't merely be surprised. I'll be utterly shocked, and will be the first to admit if I am wrong. Hopefully you'll honor me with a shout out when I turn out to be right."
And then there is this @NJCoin said
I'm also not implying anything. I'm flat out saying it's not happening. But, hope springs eternal. Good luck with your gold privys.
Should I keep going. You have already said so much about the gold privy.
No, you don't need to keep going. I was talking about a gold privy lottery, and I was right.
When they later posted the pictures, I then said the pictures were not a mistake, and it was likely the privys would be the coins they were auctioning, and there would likely be 230 of them. That turned out to be correct.
@Goldminers said:
Imagine the disappointment after paying +/-$30,000 for one of these beauties, and ending up with your coin being one of the few that PCGS grades PR69DCAM
Maybe some will already be pre-graded, and some raw. Could be several auction options available to choose from.
True. But, if it's like last time, there will be no disappointments.
At that level, with those prices, they will all be graded. And, if not, the $30K+ (actually more likely to be $50K+) raw price will be the 69 price, not the 70 one.
People will know exactly what they are getting. Right down to the specific number on the signed COA. And the grade.
If they grade some, they will grade all. Again, if it's like last time, people will have their choice, NGC or PCGS, and 69 or 70. Something for everyone.
After going to the trouble of making them, and then setting up the auction, why would the Mint take the hit involved in selling potential 70s for 69 money by keeping them raw? Not gonna happen. Not at these numbers, because the delta could be thousands, or even tens of thousands, per coin.
But, with only 230, the prices will be far beyond the means of most of us, so the closest we are going to get to them will be this conversation right here.
@VanHalen said:
15 years ago Choice MS generic double eagles were selling for $2,500. Triple melt price. Those weren't one-offs, 100%+ premiums to melt were normal for years.
This thing's a 35% premium. By 1205 ET next Friday they'll sell out.
You might turn out to be right. Just keep in mind, triple melt was still $2,500, and a 35% premium today is $3,700. Big difference ($1,200).
And, we are talking about today, not 15 years ago. Today, that Choice MS generic double eagle is around $2,700, and this, fresh off the assembly line, is $3,700. All 17,500 of them.
With all the hype, they very well might sell out. At a lower mintage, or lower premium, they certainly would have. And would have left a little meat on the bone for the buyers.
OTOH, at this price, and this mintage, even if it does sell out, where does it go from there? Going back to your generic double eagle example, gold tripled from 15 years ago, and the price of those coins only went up 10% or so. Those coins weren't doing so well after 13 years, when they were trading around $2,000 or so. A 20% drop, even though gold more than doubled.
It turns out, while 100%+ premiums were the norm for years, they were not sustainable. Especially as the price of gold rose. What's the lesson? That 100%+ is too much, but 35%, on a $2,700 base, is about right?
My takeaway is that the premium shrinks, to approaching zero, and the price of the underlying metal rises. And that an all time high premium on top of an all time high gold price is a recipe for disappointment if they don't get the mintage right.
Recent history suggests 17,500 is possible 5,000 too many. But that could turn out to not apply here, due to the hype and one off nature of the product. Or not, since this is the first of several similar items coming our way over the next two years.
Gold probably isn't tripling from here over the next 15 years. But, if it does, the coins will certainly do well at "only" a 35% premium to melt today. OTOH, what happens to 17,500 of them if gold goes back to $2K, $1.5K, etc.?
It's something to think about when buying a numismatic product from the Mint at an all time high gold price AND an all time high dollar premium. The risk isn't just that the premium shrinks, as it almost certainly will at that mintage. There is also risk in the commodity not going up forever.
At production of only 230 on the privy die, given care in the minting & packaging, why wouldn't they all grade PF70. Looking at the silver medal, looked like 80% graded MS70, and that's a lot more minted per dies used.
@Danno44 said:
New mint press release. Yes there will be privy marks on gold however…
Did the Mint PR say 230 coins to be auctioned off??
That is, in fact, exactly what they said. As I speculated would be the case in an earlier post. Both the exact number and the method of distribution.
Good for them! These will go for mucho bucks, and, since the Mint is creating the value, it should be capturing it, rather than having it go to select large advance and and bulk purchasers, with a teeny tiny few dribbling out to the masses. This way, anyone who wants one and can afford one can buy one, direct from the source, with the proceeds going to the federal government.
@goldbuffalo said:
For the Gold, under the 'specs' it states
Privy Mark - NONE
Second,
For Gold
I wonder if all the dealers will be updating their pictures when we get the Mints Images.
The mint says Proof, I'd assume there will be shiny fields.
Otherwise they'd be mis representing the product
It says the same for the silver medal under 'specs'
Privy Mark - NONE
Really? Then what's this, right there in the description?:
"In addition, 1,794 of the medals will contain a “230” privy mark, and 230 of those privy- marked medals will include a certificate of authenticity signed by United States Mint Director Ventris C. Gibson."
Does the gold product page include that language? If not, we just might have solved the riddle.
All you are pointing to is the fact that 73,206 of the medals will not have a privy mark. Which is 100% true. Has nothing to do with the 1794 that will.
Or with the gold, a separate product that will not have any with privy marks. Because privy marks are not in the specifications, or in the description. It's REALLY not complicated.
Or this @NJCoin said
"Yes, I happen to know for sure what will happen. There is not going to be a privy on the gold coin. Take it to the bank. or continue to argue with me. And then, when I turn out to be right, argue that I am nothing more than a blind squirrel who found an acorn. It's all good."
Or maybe this @NJCoin said
"I won't merely be surprised. I'll be utterly shocked, and will be the first to admit if I am wrong. Hopefully you'll honor me with a shout out when I turn out to be right."
And then there is this @NJCoin said
I'm also not implying anything. I'm flat out saying it's not happening. But, hope springs eternal. Good luck with your gold privys.
Should I keep going. You have already said so much about the gold privy.
No, you don't need to keep going. I was talking about a gold privy lottery, and I was right.
Wow! Just keep making it up as you go along. Where did you say anything about a lottery? Please reread your posts above. I knew you wouldn't be able to admit you were wrong. As I said before the mint does whatever it wants. And NJCoin knows everything.
@Danno44 said:
New mint press release. Yes there will be privy marks on gold however…
Did the Mint PR say 230 coins to be auctioned off??
That is, in fact, exactly what they said. As I speculated would be the case in an earlier post. Both the exact number and the method of distribution.
Good for them! These will go for mucho bucks, and, since the Mint is creating the value, it should be capturing it, rather than having it go to select large advance and and bulk purchasers, with a teeny tiny few dribbling out to the masses. This way, anyone who wants one and can afford one can buy one, direct from the source, with the proceeds going to the federal government.
@goldbuffalo said:
For the Gold, under the 'specs' it states
Privy Mark - NONE
Second,
For Gold
I wonder if all the dealers will be updating their pictures when we get the Mints Images.
The mint says Proof, I'd assume there will be shiny fields.
Otherwise they'd be mis representing the product
It says the same for the silver medal under 'specs'
Privy Mark - NONE
Really? Then what's this, right there in the description?:
"In addition, 1,794 of the medals will contain a “230” privy mark, and 230 of those privy- marked medals will include a certificate of authenticity signed by United States Mint Director Ventris C. Gibson."
Does the gold product page include that language? If not, we just might have solved the riddle.
All you are pointing to is the fact that 73,206 of the medals will not have a privy mark. Which is 100% true. Has nothing to do with the 1794 that will.
Or with the gold, a separate product that will not have any with privy marks. Because privy marks are not in the specifications, or in the description. It's REALLY not complicated.
Or this @NJCoin said
"Yes, I happen to know for sure what will happen. There is not going to be a privy on the gold coin. Take it to the bank. or continue to argue with me. And then, when I turn out to be right, argue that I am nothing more than a blind squirrel who found an acorn. It's all good."
Or maybe this @NJCoin said
"I won't merely be surprised. I'll be utterly shocked, and will be the first to admit if I am wrong. Hopefully you'll honor me with a shout out when I turn out to be right."
And then there is this @NJCoin said
I'm also not implying anything. I'm flat out saying it's not happening. But, hope springs eternal. Good luck with your gold privys.
Should I keep going. You have already said so much about the gold privy.
No, you don't need to keep going. I was talking about a gold privy lottery, and I was right.
Wow! Just keep making it up as you go along. Where did you say anything about a lottery? Please reread your posts above. I knew you wouldn't be able to admit you were wrong. As I said before the mint does whatever it wants. And NJCoin knows everything.
Lottery was the context for the earlier posts. No one, including me, contemplated they were going to create a separate product, under a separate product number, to sell a coin with a privy. Or that the gold would have a privy when the silver didn't.
They ran a lottery for the silver, which they announced. They made no such announcement for the gold.
People started posting renderings of the gold online, which were clearly nothing more than colorized versions of the silver. Including the privy.
I said the gold was not going to have a privy. Not as part of a lottery. Not as part of a separate offering.
It turns out there was an auction in the wings no one knew about at the time. Including me.
I was wrong. There is a privy. Not one most of us will ever get close to. But, yes, there is a privy. I was wrong.
@Goldbully said: Due to the recent rise in gold prices, an aquiring most of the ms and proof pieces in the secondary market years ago, the hags have been kind to my bullion stacking.
For every gold spouse or commemorative coin with no demand, there is a 1995-W Proof ASE or a 2019-W Enhanced RP ASE that won't be selling for melt for many generations to come.
The First Spouse gold program was a total disaster.
I remember the loving term for them back then was "First Hag."
@Goldminers said:
Imagine the disappointment after paying +/-$30,000 for one of these beauties, and ending up with your coin being one of the few that PCGS grades PR69DCAM
Maybe some will already be pre-graded, and some raw. Could be several auction options available to choose from.
True. But, if it's like last time, there will be no disappointments.
At that level, with those prices, they will all be graded. And, if not, the $30K+ (actually more likely to be $50K+) raw price will be the 69 price, not the 70 one.
People will know exactly what they are getting. Right down to the specific number on the signed COA. And the grade.
If they grade some, they will grade all. Again, if it's like last time, people will have their choice, NGC or PCGS, and 69 or 70. Something for everyone.
After going to the trouble of making them, and then setting up the auction, why would the Mint take the hit involved in selling potential 70s for 69 money by keeping them raw? Not gonna happen. Not at these numbers, because the delta could be thousands, or even tens of thousands, per coin.
But, with only 230, the prices will be far beyond the means of most of us, so the closest we are going to get to them will be this conversation right here.
How did the last auction turn out for the purchasers of the dawn dusk coins? Are the coins now selling for more or less than their purchase bids?
@jwitten said:
You told us to bookmark these comments and come back to you in two weeks. You’ve got just a couple days for the silvers to tank. Not looking good.
Thanks for staying on top of it for me. I truly appreciate it!!! 😀
Unfortunately, the timeline might have to be pushed back until we have clarity on the missing 25K. If they are truly MIA, never to be minted, never to be sold, it will have turned out that I was operating with incomplete or incorrect information, and my prediction will turn out to have been incorrect as a result.
OTOH, if the 25K magically appear in a subsequent report, either because a mistake is fixed or because an additional 25K are made available for sale, get back to me then. Because, until we have clarity, one way or the other, I'm sticking by what I thought 75K would be worth. Which is less than $104.
@Goldminers said:
Imagine the disappointment after paying +/-$30,000 for one of these beauties, and ending up with your coin being one of the few that PCGS grades PR69DCAM
Maybe some will already be pre-graded, and some raw. Could be several auction options available to choose from.
True. But, if it's like last time, there will be no disappointments.
At that level, with those prices, they will all be graded. And, if not, the $30K+ (actually more likely to be $50K+) raw price will be the 69 price, not the 70 one.
People will know exactly what they are getting. Right down to the specific number on the signed COA. And the grade.
If they grade some, they will grade all. Again, if it's like last time, people will have their choice, NGC or PCGS, and 69 or 70. Something for everyone.
After going to the trouble of making them, and then setting up the auction, why would the Mint take the hit involved in selling potential 70s for 69 money by keeping them raw? Not gonna happen. Not at these numbers, because the delta could be thousands, or even tens of thousands, per coin.
But, with only 230, the prices will be far beyond the means of most of us, so the closest we are going to get to them will be this conversation right here.
How did the last auction turn out for the purchasers of the dawn dusk coins? Are the coins now selling for more or less than their purchase bids?
I honestly have no idea. There were only a few hundred of them. I never went looking for them, so I can't tell you.
All I know is that the sample size would be really small regardless. And, unlike this time around, nothing special about the coins, other than the pedigree on the label and accompanying certificate.
That auction is instructive for an indication as to how this one will be conducted. But, it's an apples to oranges comparison with respect to how the coins will fare years down the road. All I remember is that even then, the most expensive lots went for around $100K each.
@Goldminers said:
Imagine the disappointment after paying +/-$30,000 for one of these beauties, and ending up with your coin being one of the few that PCGS grades PR69DCAM
Maybe some will already be pre-graded, and some raw. Could be several auction options available to choose from.
True. But, if it's like last time, there will be no disappointments.
At that level, with those prices, they will all be graded. And, if not, the $30K+ (actually more likely to be $50K+) raw price will be the 69 price, not the 70 one.
People will know exactly what they are getting. Right down to the specific number on the signed COA. And the grade.
If they grade some, they will grade all. Again, if it's like last time, people will have their choice, NGC or PCGS, and 69 or 70. Something for everyone.
After going to the trouble of making them, and then setting up the auction, why would the Mint take the hit involved in selling potential 70s for 69 money by keeping them raw? Not gonna happen. Not at these numbers, because the delta could be thousands, or even tens of thousands, per coin.
But, with only 230, the prices will be far beyond the means of most of us, so the closest we are going to get to them will be this conversation right here.
How did the last auction turn out for the purchasers of the dawn dusk coins? Are the coins now selling for more or less than their purchase bids?
I honestly have no idea. There were only a few hundred of them. I never went looking for them, so I can't tell you.
All I know is that the sample size would be really small regardless. And, unlike this time around, nothing special about the coins, other than the pedigree on the label and accompanying certificate.
That auction is instructive for an indication as to how this one will be conducted. But, it's an apples to oranges comparison with respect to how the coins will fare years down the road. All I remember is that even then, the most expensive lots went for around $100K each.
Did people really pay $100k for those dusk/dawn labels? I had no idea. No way does that seem like a good investment long term.
I agree, these are going to be completely different, other than maybe the methodology of sales, and they look great. I can't wait to hear more auction details. I assume the first one will include the die with a big X on it.
Maybe Dan Carr can mint a lower cost 1795 version with a 231 privy. I would probably be a buyer. LOL
okay guys, based on your experience and after looking at this gold coin (which I think it's beautiful), my question: How many hours or days until this coin will sellout after the release date?
Did people really pay $100k for those dusk/dawn labels? I had no idea. No way does that seem like a good investment long term.
I agree, these are going to be completely different, other than maybe the methodology of sales, and they look great. I can't wait to hear more auction details. I assume the first one will include the die with a big X on it.
Maybe Dan Carr can mint a lower cost 1795 version with a 231 privy. I would probably be a buyer. LOL
Last T1 ASE (NGC MS-70) - $85K - Lot #77
First T2 ASE (NGC MS-70) - $80K - Lot #78
Last T1 AGE (NGC MS-70) - $77.5K - Lot #79
First T2 AGE (NGC MS-70) - $100K - Lot #80
@SilverPlatinum said: okay guys, based on your experience and after looking at this gold coin (which I think it's beautiful), my question: How many hours or days until this coin will sellout after the release date?
@Goldminers said:
Imagine the disappointment after paying +/-$30,000 for one of these beauties, and ending up with your coin being one of the few that PCGS grades PR69DCAM
Maybe some will already be pre-graded, and some raw. Could be several auction options available to choose from.
True. But, if it's like last time, there will be no disappointments.
At that level, with those prices, they will all be graded. And, if not, the $30K+ (actually more likely to be $50K+) raw price will be the 69 price, not the 70 one.
People will know exactly what they are getting. Right down to the specific number on the signed COA. And the grade.
If they grade some, they will grade all. Again, if it's like last time, people will have their choice, NGC or PCGS, and 69 or 70. Something for everyone.
After going to the trouble of making them, and then setting up the auction, why would the Mint take the hit involved in selling potential 70s for 69 money by keeping them raw? Not gonna happen. Not at these numbers, because the delta could be thousands, or even tens of thousands, per coin.
But, with only 230, the prices will be far beyond the means of most of us, so the closest we are going to get to them will be this conversation right here.
How did the last auction turn out for the purchasers of the dawn dusk coins? Are the coins now selling for more or less than their purchase bids?
I honestly have no idea. There were only a few hundred of them. I never went looking for them, so I can't tell you.
All I know is that the sample size would be really small regardless. And, unlike this time around, nothing special about the coins, other than the pedigree on the label and accompanying certificate.
That auction is instructive for an indication as to how this one will be conducted. But, it's an apples to oranges comparison with respect to how the coins will fare years down the road. All I remember is that even then, the most expensive lots went for around $100K each.
Did people really pay $100k for those dusk/dawn labels? I had no idea. No way does that seem like a good investment long term.
I agree, these are going to be completely different, other than maybe the methodology of sales, and they look great. I can't wait to hear more auction details. I assume the first one will include the die with a big X on it.
Maybe Dan Carr can mint a lower cost 1795 version with a 231 privy. I would probably be a buyer. LOL
@jwitten said:
Even when you’re wrong, you’ve got a reason you’re not wrong 😂
Well, yeah. If I went out on a limb based on the mintage being one thing, and it ends up being 1/3 less, all bets are off.
I think if you go back far enough, you were sure they wouldn't sell out. So a lack of a sell out is in line with your earlier prediction. We will not be granting partial credit.
@jwitten said:
Even when you’re wrong, you’ve got a reason you’re not wrong 😂
Well, yeah. If I went out on a limb based on the mintage being one thing, and it ends up being 1/3 less, all bets are off.
I think if you go back far enough, you were sure they wouldn't sell out. So a lack of a sell out is in line with your earlier prediction. We will not be granting partial credit.
NEVER, once the lottery was announced. A sell out at $104, with 1794 privys seeded in, was the biggest no brainer ever.
The speculation was over whether the Mint was going to accept returns stripped of the privys, not whether 75K would initially sell out. And that mystery was solved when we learned these were being made available for ABPP and regular bulk purchase.
Go back and look. The speculation was extensive between the time the lottery was announced and Advance Release slabs began to appear on eBay.
My speculation then turned to how low the non-privys would go after they were dumped on the market after bulk buyers stripped the privys from their purchases.
And the answer to that is still pending, depending on whether and when the Mint says something about the missing 25K. I still think that is holding the market up, because I think the 25K are out there, but are not hitting the market until the holders get clarity. I certainly never thought people would not want to participate in the lottery 75K times.
Under these circumstances, I'm afraid partial credit is required. 😀
@jwitten said:
Even when you’re wrong, you’ve got a reason you’re not wrong 😂
Well, yeah. If I went out on a limb based on the mintage being one thing, and it ends up being 1/3 less, all bets are off.
I think if you go back far enough, you were sure they wouldn't sell out. So a lack of a sell out is in line with your earlier prediction. We will not be granting partial credit.
NEVER, once the lottery was announced. A sell out at $104, with 1794 privys seeded in, was the biggest no brainer ever.
The speculation was over whether the Mint was going to accept returns stripped of the privys, not whether 75K would initially sell out. And that mystery was solved when we learned these were being made available for ABPP and regular bulk purchase.
Go back and look. The speculation was extensive between the time the lottery was announced and Advance Release slabs began to appear on eBay.
My speculation then turned to how low the non-privys would go after they were dumped on the market after bulk buyers stripped the privys from their purchases.
And the answer to that is still pending, depending on whether and when the Mint says something about the missing 25K. I still think that is holding the market up, because I think the 25K are out there, but are not hitting the market until the holders get clarity. I certainly never thought people would not want to participate in the lottery 75K times.
Under these circumstances, I'm afraid partial credit is required. 😀
Yes, except the secondary market price we are taking about has NO PRIVY LOTTERY attached to it. So the current $200 price for raw coins is the price as if no lottery existed.
No pass. No partial credit. The price either crashes or you were simply wrong which you promised to acknowledge if it happened.
@jwitten said:
Even when you’re wrong, you’ve got a reason you’re not wrong 😂
Well, yeah. If I went out on a limb based on the mintage being one thing, and it ends up being 1/3 less, all bets are off.
I think if you go back far enough, you were sure they wouldn't sell out. So a lack of a sell out is in line with your earlier prediction. We will not be granting partial credit.
NEVER, once the lottery was announced. A sell out at $104, with 1794 privys seeded in, was the biggest no brainer ever.
The speculation was over whether the Mint was going to accept returns stripped of the privys, not whether 75K would initially sell out. And that mystery was solved when we learned these were being made available for ABPP and regular bulk purchase.
Go back and look. The speculation was extensive between the time the lottery was announced and Advance Release slabs began to appear on eBay.
My speculation then turned to how low the non-privys would go after they were dumped on the market after bulk buyers stripped the privys from their purchases.
And the answer to that is still pending, depending on whether and when the Mint says something about the missing 25K. I still think that is holding the market up, because I think the 25K are out there, but are not hitting the market until the holders get clarity. I certainly never thought people would not want to participate in the lottery 75K times.
Under these circumstances, I'm afraid partial credit is required. 😀
Yes, except the secondary market price we are taking about has NO PRIVY LOTTERY attached to it. So the current $200 price for raw coins is the price as if no lottery existed.
No pass. No partial credit. The price either crashes or you were simply wrong which you promised to acknowledge if it happened.
Agree about the current market for non-privys having nothing to do with the lottery.
Respectfully disagree about the price not being propped up by the perception that there might only be 50K ever made, rather than 75K. That is still TBD, and, until it is, I can't concede anything because neither I, nor you, know what will happen to the price if next week's report contains the missing 25K, or if they just throw another 25K up on the website, with or without privys.
If they announce the number is 50K, I'll acknowledge that I did not know that when I said what I said. If the missing 25K appears, and the price doesn't decline precipitously, I'll admit I was wrong. Otherwise, I'll take my victory lap while holding my breath waiting for my apology from you. 😀
@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
@ifthevamzarockin said:
I'm going to win all 230 of them at auction and corner the market on them.
None of you stand a chance to get one at the auction.
Based on what I expect them to go for, you are very probably correct. 😀
The question is going to be why anyone would actually pay what they are going to cost, just to own an artificially created modern rarity.
You could also ask why anyone would spend money to buy a beat up old coin from commerce that should have been recycled 100 years ago. People always deceive themselves into thinking their collecting choice is somehow more rational.
Comments
Not to mention high relief.
Opinions. Will the privy’s low mintage take away the desire to have a sister coin with a larger mintage?
Martin
!
No doubt they are beautiful. To @HATTRICK's point, the only question is whether there is value buying one at a $1,000+ premium to near record gold prices with a mintage of 17,500.
It would be a no-brainer if the premium was half as much, or if the mintage was 10K or 12,500, both of which were widely speculated as being the numbers before they announced 17,500. They are clearly reaching with the brand new column at the far right of the pricing grid, just for this, and with a mintage nearly 50% higher than the most recent comps, the American Liberty High Relief Gold coins.
Either it is groovy enough to generate a sell out at nearly $4K, which will then lead to even higher prices in the secondary market. Or, it's just too much money when there is a silver version that people could have had at $104. In which case they will sit, like the 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars are. Even the RP set.
I'm on the fence, because it IS beautiful, and it IS a one-off. I can see it going either way.
So, buy it if you love it, and don't care if you might lose some money if the premium later shrinks or evaporates. But don't buy it looking for a home run. Because, at $3700, it's hard to see a lot of upside with a mintage of 17,500, and no lottery to stimulate an instant sell out.
I don't feel it will. Personally feel this will be the nicest gold coin issued since the 2009 UHR. My opinion… the gold liberty series have not been appealing and the mint somehow managed to sell those. I could see the demand holding for potentially larger 17,500 mintage.
On this? Why? 230 is just going to be unobtainable for most. Which means, for all practical purposes, they don't exist.
Their presence or absence has nothing to do with whether or not 17,500 of these are attractive at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. Because most people are never going to get their hand on one of 230 with privys.
And I again remind everyone, when we all thought all the silver medals had the privy, most people hated it. So I just can't see how the existence of something most people will never be able to afford would have any impact at all on their desire to own a sister coin that they can actually acquire.
I agree with you. I was just pulling your leg.
He supposedly has both of us on ignore. Lol
Higher. Think "Moon Money"
It's just my observation and maybe I should have said two generations from me. I base my observations on my two grandkids who are 11 and 14 and my daughter who teaches fourth grade and knows the status of the young. They are in a world that is changing fast and have no interest in collecting anything. My uncle was an avid collector and dealer, my father less, me less, my daughter very little and the grandkids no interest. This is my reality and writing on the wall. Its a matter of time no matter how little is left. I still buy lower priced shiny silver coins as I am addicted but have no dreams of any future value of what I have.
Agreed. And, I've been trying to use my imagination.
That said, we also have to realize that there WILL be 230 of them. All at once. That will put downward pressure on them.
The one with the die will definitely be Moon Money. Maybe $100K+?
But, the rest of the 229? Not so much. An indication would be the V75 AGE, which is $20K+.
There will be 88% fewer of these, but, is pricing strictly proportional to scarcity? If so, we are talking $150K+, and I just can't get there. That's why I guesstimated $50K+.
It's as good a guess as any, given that 230 of them are going to be offered all at once. With a signed certificate.
The certificates alone seem to be worth $10K with the silver medals. Which seems crazy. Pushing another 230 of them on the market makes them that much less special.
To me, even $50K is Moon Money for something being made, right now, with the intent to create an artificial scarcity, rather than having it be organically scarce a century from its creation due to a low survival rate.
This doesn't mean I agree with @HATTRICK that these should all sell for melt. But it does mean that, even if I had the money, I wouldn't feed into what the Mint is doing by paying anything close to $50K for something they are making with an ounce of gold with the express intent of creating extreme scarcity. Particularly when there is another flavor of the exact same item, without the distraction of a privy, at a small fraction of the price.
Which is why I also disagree with @wondercoin. It's nothing more than a rare bauble that has nothing to do with me, my budget, or my collection. It doesn't hurt people who cannot afford to play. Or dealers who don't get a windfall from value they have no part in creating.
The Mint should be absolutely free to create things like this to satisfy a demand, to the extent one exists, as long as one exists. It's a brilliant way to raise a few million dollars for the federal government, at no cost to the rest of us.
Like Powerball for the state governments. I don't play because I don't buy into the dream, and have no interest in paying even more in taxes than I already do.
But I don't begrudge anyone who chooses to lower my taxes by even a little bit by buying into a dream and voluntarily playing a game with a low expected value, since the proceeds do go towards the provision of government services. Same here with whoever is willing to pay whatever to the Mint for one of 230 special coins.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
What about this
@NJCoin said:
Or this
@NJCoin said
"Yes, I happen to know for sure what will happen. There is not going to be a privy on the gold coin. Take it to the bank. or continue to argue with me. And then, when I turn out to be right, argue that I am nothing more than a blind squirrel who found an acorn. It's all good."
Or maybe this
@NJCoin said
"I won't merely be surprised. I'll be utterly shocked, and will be the first to admit if I am wrong. Hopefully you'll honor me with a shout out when I turn out to be right."
And then there is this
@NJCoin said
I'm also not implying anything. I'm flat out saying it's not happening. But, hope springs eternal. Good luck with your gold privys.
Should I keep going. You have already said so much about the gold privy.
I agree the youngsters have no interest in collecting coins but they definitely still have interest in collecting things.
Ask your daughter if her students collect Pokemon cards and/or squishmallows characters!😂🤣
WquarterFreddie said
Ask your daughter if her students collect Pokemon cards and/or squishmallows
Yes but only because others were but short lived. Shorter than pogs
My granddaughter was into squishmallows for less than a year and my grandson collected Pokémon because I bought them for him. He lost interest after a couple months 😥
Imagine the disappointment after paying +/-$30,000 for one of these beauties, and ending up with your coin being one of the few that PCGS grades PR69DCAM
Maybe some will already be pre-graded, and some raw. Could be several auction options available to choose from.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I knew I remembered him promising there would be no privies on the gold, but I didn’t feel like reading all 2,578 posts he’s made about them to find it. Good work!
15 years ago Choice MS generic double eagles were selling for $2,500. Triple melt price. Those weren't one-offs, 100%+ premiums to melt were normal for years.
This thing's a 35% premium. By 1205 ET next Friday they'll sell out.
No, you don't need to keep going. I was talking about a gold privy lottery, and I was right.
When they later posted the pictures, I then said the pictures were not a mistake, and it was likely the privys would be the coins they were auctioning, and there would likely be 230 of them. That turned out to be correct.
True. But, if it's like last time, there will be no disappointments.
At that level, with those prices, they will all be graded. And, if not, the $30K+ (actually more likely to be $50K+) raw price will be the 69 price, not the 70 one.
People will know exactly what they are getting. Right down to the specific number on the signed COA. And the grade.
If they grade some, they will grade all. Again, if it's like last time, people will have their choice, NGC or PCGS, and 69 or 70. Something for everyone.
After going to the trouble of making them, and then setting up the auction, why would the Mint take the hit involved in selling potential 70s for 69 money by keeping them raw? Not gonna happen. Not at these numbers, because the delta could be thousands, or even tens of thousands, per coin.
But, with only 230, the prices will be far beyond the means of most of us, so the closest we are going to get to them will be this conversation right here.
You might turn out to be right. Just keep in mind, triple melt was still $2,500, and a 35% premium today is $3,700. Big difference ($1,200).
And, we are talking about today, not 15 years ago. Today, that Choice MS generic double eagle is around $2,700, and this, fresh off the assembly line, is $3,700. All 17,500 of them.
With all the hype, they very well might sell out. At a lower mintage, or lower premium, they certainly would have. And would have left a little meat on the bone for the buyers.
OTOH, at this price, and this mintage, even if it does sell out, where does it go from there? Going back to your generic double eagle example, gold tripled from 15 years ago, and the price of those coins only went up 10% or so. Those coins weren't doing so well after 13 years, when they were trading around $2,000 or so. A 20% drop, even though gold more than doubled.
It turns out, while 100%+ premiums were the norm for years, they were not sustainable. Especially as the price of gold rose. What's the lesson? That 100%+ is too much, but 35%, on a $2,700 base, is about right?
My takeaway is that the premium shrinks, to approaching zero, and the price of the underlying metal rises. And that an all time high premium on top of an all time high gold price is a recipe for disappointment if they don't get the mintage right.
Recent history suggests 17,500 is possible 5,000 too many. But that could turn out to not apply here, due to the hype and one off nature of the product. Or not, since this is the first of several similar items coming our way over the next two years.
Gold probably isn't tripling from here over the next 15 years. But, if it does, the coins will certainly do well at "only" a 35% premium to melt today. OTOH, what happens to 17,500 of them if gold goes back to $2K, $1.5K, etc.?
It's something to think about when buying a numismatic product from the Mint at an all time high gold price AND an all time high dollar premium. The risk isn't just that the premium shrinks, as it almost certainly will at that mintage. There is also risk in the commodity not going up forever.
The Mint finally posted the high resolution images of the Gold FH coin.
Mint Link to view large images
At production of only 230 on the privy die, given care in the minting & packaging, why wouldn't they all grade PF70. Looking at the silver medal, looked like 80% graded MS70, and that's a lot more minted per dies used.
Wow! Just keep making it up as you go along. Where did you say anything about a lottery? Please reread your posts above. I knew you wouldn't be able to admit you were wrong. As I said before the mint does whatever it wants. And NJCoin knows everything.
Lottery was the context for the earlier posts. No one, including me, contemplated they were going to create a separate product, under a separate product number, to sell a coin with a privy. Or that the gold would have a privy when the silver didn't.
They ran a lottery for the silver, which they announced. They made no such announcement for the gold.
People started posting renderings of the gold online, which were clearly nothing more than colorized versions of the silver. Including the privy.
I said the gold was not going to have a privy. Not as part of a lottery. Not as part of a separate offering.
It turns out there was an auction in the wings no one knew about at the time. Including me.
I was wrong. There is a privy. Not one most of us will ever get close to. But, yes, there is a privy. I was wrong.
You told us to bookmark these comments and come back to you in two weeks. You’ve got just a couple days for the silvers to tank. Not looking good.
How did the last auction turn out for the purchasers of the dawn dusk coins? Are the coins now selling for more or less than their purchase bids?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Thanks for staying on top of it for me. I truly appreciate it!!! 😀
Unfortunately, the timeline might have to be pushed back until we have clarity on the missing 25K. If they are truly MIA, never to be minted, never to be sold, it will have turned out that I was operating with incomplete or incorrect information, and my prediction will turn out to have been incorrect as a result.
OTOH, if the 25K magically appear in a subsequent report, either because a mistake is fixed or because an additional 25K are made available for sale, get back to me then. Because, until we have clarity, one way or the other, I'm sticking by what I thought 75K would be worth. Which is less than $104.
I honestly have no idea. There were only a few hundred of them. I never went looking for them, so I can't tell you.
All I know is that the sample size would be really small regardless. And, unlike this time around, nothing special about the coins, other than the pedigree on the label and accompanying certificate.
That auction is instructive for an indication as to how this one will be conducted. But, it's an apples to oranges comparison with respect to how the coins will fare years down the road. All I remember is that even then, the most expensive lots went for around $100K each.
Did people really pay $100k for those dusk/dawn labels? I had no idea. No way does that seem like a good investment long term.
I agree, these are going to be completely different, other than maybe the methodology of sales, and they look great. I can't wait to hear more auction details. I assume the first one will include the die with a big X on it.
Maybe Dan Carr can mint a lower cost 1795 version with a 231 privy. I would probably be a buyer. LOL
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Even when you’re wrong, you’ve got a reason you’re not wrong 😂
How many hours or days until this coin will sellout after the release date?
Last T1 ASE (NGC MS-70) - $85K - Lot #77
First T2 ASE (NGC MS-70) - $80K - Lot #78
Last T1 AGE (NGC MS-70) - $77.5K - Lot #79
First T2 AGE (NGC MS-70) - $100K - Lot #80
Entire SB Catalog
I'm thinking day 1 sellout.
Yup!
https://archive.stacksbowers.com/?q=dfaaa6db-9ea7-44f8-96a7-0df0a94c72c0
Well, yeah. If I went out on a limb based on the mintage being one thing, and it ends up being 1/3 less, all bets are off.
He was tricked.
I think if you go back far enough, you were sure they wouldn't sell out. So a lack of a sell out is in line with your earlier prediction. We will not be granting partial credit.
Lucky for me, I am not a fan of any US Mint laser etched dies cameo proofs or stacking 24k at $2700 plus mint juice.
In retrospect, I am quite happy with my one $110 delivered 2024 medal:
Poor Man's version and maybe just a 50k issue ?
I really love the silver's super high relief which I find superior to copies, fantasies I have seen or own.
Just added your pretty 1794 vacation find on the Carr thread for comparison to Gallery Mint replica, 2024 Mint Medal, Carr Fantasy
Thanks Andy !
Lindy
@MrEureka said:
Unfortunately not for sale. 😢
NEVER, once the lottery was announced. A sell out at $104, with 1794 privys seeded in, was the biggest no brainer ever.
The speculation was over whether the Mint was going to accept returns stripped of the privys, not whether 75K would initially sell out. And that mystery was solved when we learned these were being made available for ABPP and regular bulk purchase.
Go back and look. The speculation was extensive between the time the lottery was announced and Advance Release slabs began to appear on eBay.
My speculation then turned to how low the non-privys would go after they were dumped on the market after bulk buyers stripped the privys from their purchases.
And the answer to that is still pending, depending on whether and when the Mint says something about the missing 25K. I still think that is holding the market up, because I think the 25K are out there, but are not hitting the market until the holders get clarity. I certainly never thought people would not want to participate in the lottery 75K times.
Under these circumstances, I'm afraid partial credit is required. 😀
Yes, except the secondary market price we are taking about has NO PRIVY LOTTERY attached to it. So the current $200 price for raw coins is the price as if no lottery existed.
No pass. No partial credit. The price either crashes or you were simply wrong which you promised to acknowledge if it happened.
Agree about the current market for non-privys having nothing to do with the lottery.
Respectfully disagree about the price not being propped up by the perception that there might only be 50K ever made, rather than 75K. That is still TBD, and, until it is, I can't concede anything because neither I, nor you, know what will happen to the price if next week's report contains the missing 25K, or if they just throw another 25K up on the website, with or without privys.
If they announce the number is 50K, I'll acknowledge that I did not know that when I said what I said. If the missing 25K appears, and the price doesn't decline precipitously, I'll admit I was wrong. Otherwise, I'll take my victory lap while holding my breath waiting for my apology from you. 😀
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
So that the premium is a larger percentage of the price...
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
She is with you............
I'm going to win all 230 of them at auction and corner the market on them.
None of you stand a chance to get one at the auction.
Based on what I expect them to go for, you are very probably correct. 😀
The question is going to be why anyone would actually pay what they are going to cost, just to own an artificially created modern rarity.
You could also ask why anyone would spend money to buy a beat up old coin from commerce that should have been recycled 100 years ago. People always deceive themselves into thinking their collecting choice is somehow more rational.