@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
No. He's saying that the only way you make money on this issue is IF less than 20% are 70s.
@ifthevamzarockin said:
I'm going to win all 230 of them at auction and corner the market on them.
None of you stand a chance to get one at the auction.
Based on what I expect them to go for, you are very probably correct. 😀
The question is going to be why anyone would actually pay what they are going to cost, just to own an artificially created modern rarity.
You could also ask why anyone would spend money to buy a beat up old coin from commerce that should have been recycled 100 years ago. People always deceive themselves into thinking their collecting choice is somehow more rational.
True. I guess I understand the attraction to the history of the 100 year old coin minted for commerce that somehow survived, perfectly preserved, for 100 years. Against all odds. And the organic rarity associated with a population of several hundred, or several thousand out of an original population of hundreds of thousands or millions.
Not so much with something manufactured the day before yesterday, specifically to be rare and expensive, far beyond the cost of manufacture. That said, you are, of course, correct that people should feel free to chase whatever they desire and can afford. And the Mint absolutely should feed that market and capture that value for the US Treasury.
@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
I am not. You really, really, really have difficulty understanding things I write that seem very clear to me.
So let me explain, at length. Because my posts are not already long enough.
What that post meant was that people should not expect to make a lot of money on these. Even if they sell out.
Because, at a $1,000 premium to spot, with spot at $2,700, and with a mintage of 17,500, the Mint is already capturing most of the upside for itself. Of course, if the market rejects 17,500 at $3,700, that will be another case entirely.
The EXCEPTION will be if they don't grade so well. Read carefully -- "80%+ of them are not 70s."
That means LESS than 80% are 70s. Not 20%!. If less than 80% are 70s, and you happen to get one, you will likely be able to sell it for more than you paid, including the cost of grading.
That would be a win. Even if they don't sell out. Even at $3,700.
But it won't happen if 80%+ grade 70. Because then, just like the examples you were beating me up over before, 70s won't be special, and it will be difficult to get a premium for them. If you are again going to want to call a $20 premium over raw a "premium," I will once again disagree with you.
@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
No. He's saying that the only way you make money on this issue is IF less than 20% are 70s.
Not even. ~70% 70s is the modern standard, and those do command a market premium. As you get above that, not so much. So I just said 80%+, to be on the safe side, and said that if 70s grade at that rate, you won't even be able to make money with a 70.
Otherwise, you will. Less than 80%. Not less than 20%.
I reread my OP again, and see how it is not as clear as I originally thought. Because it involves a double negative. I said NOT to expect to make money, unless you get a 70 and 80%+ are not 70s. Not that 80% won't be 70s.
To @jwitten's point, until grading results come out, there is no reason with any modern to think they won't grade 70 at around a 70% rate.
There is a market premium at that rate. Significantly below that rate drives the premium up. And, of course, significantly below that rate drives it down. To zero when the net value in the slab is no different than the net value of a raw coin that wasn't slabbed.
@Goldbully said:
LCR FH Gold Coin offerings listed..............all three major tpg's priced the same.
edited to add: That's a pretty hefty margin.....if the coin costs $3,700 and it sells for $5,500, that's over 32% margin.
Agreed. To me it seems aspirational, to capture the hype and anticipation ahead of the release. Plus whatever premium the bulk submitters can command through a FDOI slab unavailable to retail.
$1,800 is a lot, but 32% is nothing for a hot new issue. Which tells me they also don't expect a sell out, or big premiums even if there is a sell out. So they want to make what they can while they can.
It looks like LCR agrees with me that the Mint has stripped most of the meat off the bone in selling 17,500 at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. Leaving only another 32% for a dealer selling FDOI 70s. If they can get it. And, you can even save $100 by not using a credit card!
Where does that leave retail buyers who don't have access to FDOI slabbing, and who might not pull a 70 from their sealed package?
But I do think the US Mint did a nice job on the design. The US Mint has been doing a better job on doing modern remakes of classic coins since Ed Moy became director.
@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
No. He's saying that the only way you make money on this issue is IF less than 20% are 70s.
Not even. ~70% 70s is the modern standard, and those do command a market premium. As you get above that, not so much. So I just said 80%+, to be on the safe side, and said that if 70s grade at that rate, you won't even be able to make money with a 70.
Otherwise, you will. Less than 80%. Not less than 20%.
I reread my OP again, and see how it is not as clear as I originally thought. Because it involves a double negative. I said NOT to expect to make money, unless you get a 70 and 80%+ are not 70s. Not that 80% won't be 70s.
To @jwitten's point, until grading results come out, there is no reason with any modern to think they won't grade 70 at around a 70% rate.
There is a market premium at that rate. Significantly below that rate drives the premium up. And, of course, significantly below that rate drives it down. To zero when the net value in the slab is no different than the net value of a raw coin that wasn't slabbed.
Lmao. You're arguing with me about your 20% number!!!!! It was YOUR number.
@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
No. He's saying that the only way you make money on this issue is IF less than 20% are 70s.
Not even. ~70% 70s is the modern standard, and those do command a market premium. As you get above that, not so much. So I just said 80%+, to be on the safe side, and said that if 70s grade at that rate, you won't even be able to make money with a 70.
Otherwise, you will. Less than 80%. Not less than 20%.
I reread my OP again, and see how it is not as clear as I originally thought. Because it involves a double negative. I said NOT to expect to make money, unless you get a 70 and 80%+ are not 70s. Not that 80% won't be 70s.
To @jwitten's point, until grading results come out, there is no reason with any modern to think they won't grade 70 at around a 70% rate.
There is a market premium at that rate. Significantly below that rate drives the premium up. And, of course, significantly below that rate drives it down. To zero when the net value in the slab is no different than the net value of a raw coin that wasn't slabbed.
Lmao. You're arguing with me about your 20% number!!!!! It was YOUR number.
I know! I'm saying that I realize it was unclear due to the double negative. My number was never 20%. It was 80%.
And, even that wasn't a prediction. It was nothing more than a threshold, above which I thought I was only stating the obvious -- that 70s would not command a market premium.
Nothing more, nothing less. The fact that @jwitten seems to feel compelled to scrutinize, misinterpret, and then pick apart my posts doesn't change that.
A gold piece that is a top tier certified MS70 should not have much of a premium. A modern $3,700 proof gold coin with a the grade through rate on 70s of 80%+
Of course that is with markets that respond rationally. And we know that's rarely the case.
Your posts would be clearer if you use less words, not more 😂. Your statement could be taken two ways.
“ Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.“
I thought you were making another prediction that 80% would not grade a 70 (hence me asking if you really thought only 20% would be a 70). I now see you mean you only think 70s will be profitable if that’s the case.
@morgansforever said:
I'm down for one, hopefully gold falls off a cliff in the short term.
Even $100, which would be a nice cliff in the next week, would be a tiny drop in the bucket for a $3700 coin.
Buy it if you love it. Not because you're looking for any deals in the intermediate term, or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.
No. He's saying that the only way you make money on this issue is IF less than 20% are 70s.
Not even. ~70% 70s is the modern standard, and those do command a market premium. As you get above that, not so much. So I just said 80%+, to be on the safe side, and said that if 70s grade at that rate, you won't even be able to make money with a 70.
Otherwise, you will. Less than 80%. Not less than 20%.
I reread my OP again, and see how it is not as clear as I originally thought. Because it involves a double negative. I said NOT to expect to make money, unless you get a 70 and 80%+ are not 70s. Not that 80% won't be 70s.
To @jwitten's point, until grading results come out, there is no reason with any modern to think they won't grade 70 at around a 70% rate.
There is a market premium at that rate. Significantly below that rate drives the premium up. And, of course, significantly below that rate drives it down. To zero when the net value in the slab is no different than the net value of a raw coin that wasn't slabbed.
Lmao. You're arguing with me about your 20% number!!!!! It was YOUR number.
I know! I'm saying that I realize it was unclear due to the double negative. My number was never 20%. It was 80%.
And, even that wasn't a prediction. It was nothing more than a threshold, above which I thought I was only stating the obvious -- that 70s would not command a market premium.
Nothing more, nothing less. The fact that @jwitten seems to feel compelled to scrutinize, misinterpret, and then pick apart my posts doesn't change that.
🤣 Lmao
I tried to ignore NJcoin. I just couldn't keep doing it. Sometimes he's like the dog chasing his own tail (funny) other times the train wreck on the side of the road (disturbing). Either way I just have to look. I keep telling myself don't do it. I know I don't have to. But I keep looking.
Oh well. Thanks for the entertainment!
@jwitten said:
Your posts would be clearer if you use less words, not more 😂. Your statement could be taken two ways.
“ Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.“
I thought you were making another prediction that 80% would not grade a 70 (hence me asking if you really thought only 20% would be a 70). I now see you mean you only think 70s will be profitable if that’s the case.
Again, that's not what I am saying. I'm saying 70s will sell for a premium so long as more than 80% of them don't grade 70. 80%. Not 20%. Don't grade 70. Not grade 70.
In other words, if the 70 rate is 80%+, 70s won't be worth anything. Not that the 70 rate has to be <20% for 70s to be good!!!
@jwitten said:
If 80%+ do not grade a 70, that means only 20% grade 70. That’s where there 20% came from.
And this is where the double negatives are throwing you. So I'll try again, highlighting key words.
"... or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s."
"In the expectation of making any money" means don't expect to make money. "Unless" means an exception to the prior statement is about to be set forth. "You happen to pull a 70" needs no explanation. "And" means "and." "80%+ of them are NOT 70s" means, if 80%+ of them ARE 70s, the statement doesn't apply. Otherwise it does.
Putting it all together, if you get a 70, and less than 80% of the population grades 70, you can make money with a 70. Otherwise, even a 70 won't bail you out. No prediction about how many will be 70. And absolutely no statement that a 20% 70 rate is necessary for 70s to be good.
That is NEVER the case with moderns, and 70s selling for a premium is the rule, not the exception. Notwithstanding a few recent examples of 70s coming in far above 70%, and 70 slabs going for no premium above the cost of slabbing.
If you need further explanation, I'm right here. 😀
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
@Manorcourtman said:
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
I was going to fully agree with you, until I got to the last sentence about the quick sell out.
I agree they look awesome. I agree there are way more than 17,500 collectors that can afford it. I disagree that there are more than 17,500 willing to make the investment, given the high price and high premium. Even though they can afford it.
I think, at the end of the day, perceived value plays an important role in what people are willing to buy. Even if they can afford it, and even if they like the design.
And I happen to think 17,500 at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold might be too many to expect to sell quickly, if at all, at that price and premium. We'll know by this time next week.
But it's a fact that demand is not inelastic at any price, so long as there are collectors, the product is attractive, and the collectors have money in the bank. At the right price, they could have easily sold 50K+ of these. And at an even higher price, they'd have had trouble selling even 5K.
I think these would have been gone by 12:02 p.m. on Friday if they kept the mintage to the same 12,500 they used for the last two American Liberty coins. Like you, though, they thought these were so special that they could push the premium up by a few bucks, push the mintage up by 50%, have gold go up 30%, and still have no problem selling them all. Quickly. I'm just not so sure.
@Manorcourtman said:
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
I was going to fully agree with you, until I got to the last sentence about the quick sell out.
I agree they look awesome. I agree there are way more than 17,500 collectors that can afford it. I disagree that there are more than 17,500 willing to make the investment, given the high price and high premium. Even though they can afford it.
I think, at the end of the day, perceived value plays an important role in what people are willing to buy. Even if they can afford it, and even if they like the design.
And I happen to think 17,500 at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold might to too many to expect to sell quickly, if at all. We'll know by this time next week.
@Manorcourtman said:
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
Why can't it be made every year? The 2021 Morgan and Peace were a one off until they weren't...
@Manorcourtman said:
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
Why can't it be made every year? The 2021 Morgan and Peace were a one off until they weren't...
It won't be, but there will be a slew of similar offerings in 2026, so it's not going to be quite as special as everyone seems to be projecting it to be. More importantly, the original coin was silver, not gold, and there is a silver tribute available. At a much more accessible price point.
This is going to rise or fall on its own merits. Not because it's not a boring commemorative or eagle. $1K premium to $2700 gold, with a mintage of 17.5K. The market will either accept it or not.
Recent history suggests the price is too high for the mintage. But maybe people advocating for it here, and the Mint, are right, and the public will pay up for it. The Mint is far from infallible, as evidenced by pricing and mintages for 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, but maybe this time they got it right.
OTOH, they apparently felt a need to stimulate sales of $104 silver rounds by throwing in a lottery ticket. No such effort here, and the premium to melt is $1,000 as opposed to $70, and melt is $2,700 as opposed to $34. So, what they are doing seems very ambitious to me.
@Manorcourtman said:
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
Why can't it be made every year? The 2021 Morgan and Peace were a one off until they weren't...
It won't be, but there will be a slew of similar offerings in 2026, so it's not going to be quite as special as everyone seems to be projecting it to be. More importantly, the original coin was silver, not gold, and there is a silver tribute available. At a much more accessible price point.
This is going to rise or fall on its own merits. Not because it's not a boring commemorative or eagle. $1K premium to $2700 gold, with a mintage of 17.5K. The market will either accept it or not.
Recent history suggests the price is too high for the mintage. But maybe people advocating for it here, and the Mint, are right, and the public will pay up for it. The Mint is far from infallible, as evidenced by pricing and mintages for 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, but maybe this time they got it right.
I didn't say it would be, just that it could be. Every commemorative offering is unique and not unique at the same time. In fact every circulating coin is unique and not unique.
People try too hard to justify their purchases as anything other than what they are: a discretionary purchase. It's like they are either insecure in the discretionary expense or feel guilty about their privilege that allows for it.
@Manorcourtman said:
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
Why can't it be made every year? The 2021 Morgan and Peace were a one off until they weren't...
It won't be, but there will be a slew of similar offerings in 2026, so it's not going to be quite as special as everyone seems to be projecting it to be. More importantly, the original coin was silver, not gold, and there is a silver tribute available. At a much more accessible price point.
This is going to rise or fall on its own merits. Not because it's not a boring commemorative or eagle. $1K premium to $2700 gold, with a mintage of 17.5K. The market will either accept it or not.
Recent history suggests the price is too high for the mintage. But maybe people advocating for it here, and the Mint, are right, and the public will pay up for it. The Mint is far from infallible, as evidenced by pricing and mintages for 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, but maybe this time they got it right.
I didn't say it would be, just that it could be. Every commemorative offering is unique and not unique at the same time. In fact every circulating coin is unique and not unique.
People try too hard to justify their purchases as anything other than what they are: a discretionary purchase. It's like they are either insecure in the discretionary expense or feel guilty about their privilege that allows for it.
I get it, and I'm agreeing with your general point. Specifically, though, Morgan and Peace Dollars are iconic and widely collected in a way very few other coins are. In a class with Walking Liberty halves, St. Gaudens double eagles, Mercury dimes, Buffalo nickels, etc. All of which are now subjects of ongoing series.
The FH dollar, due to its age, rarity, short life, etc., is not in that class, never was in that class, and never will be in that class. This is its tribute. Literally anything "could be." If the possibility is not reasonably likely, it really is not worth speculating about. Such as this becoming an ongoing series.
And there is no need, and no real demand. There will plenty of other similar items to chase in 2026.
Just for reference: mintage and pricing info as of today on the site.
2024 Flowing Hair max mintage 17,500 est. asking price $3,690-$3,740 range.
2024 Buffalo proof. max mintage 16,000 current price $3,640 (8,165 sold so far)
2024 Liberty and Britannia High relief, 10,000 max mintage $3,720 (5,549 sold so far)
2024 American Eagle Proof, max mintage 19,500 asking $3,600 (7,723 sold so far)
2024 Burnished American eagle max mintage 13,000 now $3,570 (2,618 sold so far)
Bottom line, the price premium for one ounce gold at the mint is high, no matter what the coin design.
All of the 2024 gold coins have max mintages way above actual coins minted and/or sold.
The 17,500-max mintage for the FH seems like a typical mint max starting point. It also seems logical considering this is a very special, high relief proof coin design, with a very unusual hundred cent value with incuse edge lettering, missing In God we trust, etc.
The FH is a new US type coin, possibly a one year only item, that will have many collectors quite interested, even if they can't afford the privy version.
The Mint often states a higher max mintage number than they probably even expect to sell, and every indication is they do not actually mint the max number up front but wait and see how things go.
Based on all the other 2024 sales, I would expect if this becomes unavailable right after the HHL of 1 is lifted, it is because they only struck 10,000 in a first run.
@Goldminers said:
Just for reference: mintage and pricing info as of today on the site.
2024 Flowing Hair max mintage 17,500 est. asking price $3,690-$3,740 range.
2024 Buffalo proof. max mintage 16,000 current price $3,640 (8,165 sold so far)
2024 Liberty and Britannia High relief, 10,000 max mintage $3,720 (5,549 sold so far)
2024 American Eagle Proof, max mintage 19,500 asking $3,600 (7,723 sold so far)
2024 Burnished American eagle max mintage 13,000 now $3,570 (2,618 sold so far)
Bottom line, the price premium for one ounce gold at the mint is high, no matter what the coin design.
All of the 2024 gold coins have max mintages way above actual coins minted and/or sold.
The 17,500-max mintage for the FH seems like a typical mint max starting point. It also seems logical considering this is a very special, high relief proof coin design, with a very unusual hundred cent value with incuse edge lettering, missing In God we trust, etc.
The FH is a new US type coin, possibly a one year only item, that will have many collectors quite interested, even if they can't afford the privy version.
The Mint often states a higher max mintage number than they probably even expect to sell, and every indication is they do not actually mint the max number up front but wait and see how things go.
Based on all the other 2024 sales, I would expect if this becomes unavailable right after the HHL of 1 is lifted, it is because they only struck 10,000 in a first run.
One thing -- Coin World just reported 17,500 of these are minted and ready to go.
If it goes unavailable right after the HHL is lifted, it's because the Mint was right, I was wrong, and LCR is currently selling FDOI 70s far too inexpensively.
I think we should look at sales. Not optimistic maximum mintages. The Mint sold out 12,500 of the last two American Liberty High Relief gold offerings. Nothing else in your list has sold out. For years now.
Actual sales suggest 17,500 is optimistic, not realistic. As you suggest though, maybe this IS different enough from everything else to justify what the Mint is doing. We'll see by Friday.
Also, at the risk of stating the obvious, the fact that Coin World published this little tidbit a week before the gold coin was released, and before anyone asked, while the Mint is maintaining radio silence on the fate of the missing 25K silver medals, suggests something is not right, and the answer is not as simple as they weren't made and aren't going to be made. My money, now more than ever, is on it not being newsworthy because it's just a reporting delay.
@Goldminers said:
Just for reference: mintage and pricing info as of today on the site.
2024 Flowing Hair max mintage 17,500 est. asking price $3,690-$3,740 range.
2024 Buffalo proof. max mintage 16,000 current price $3,640 (8,165 sold so far)
2024 Liberty and Britannia High relief, 10,000 max mintage $3,720 (5,549 sold so far)
2024 American Eagle Proof, max mintage 19,500 asking $3,600 (7,723 sold so far)
2024 Burnished American eagle max mintage 13,000 now $3,570 (2,618 sold so far)
Bottom line, the price premium for one ounce gold at the mint is high, no matter what the coin design.
All of the 2024 gold coins have max mintages way above actual coins minted and/or sold.
The 17,500-max mintage for the FH seems like a typical mint max starting point. It also seems logical considering this is a very special, high relief proof coin design, with a very unusual hundred cent value with incuse edge lettering, missing In God we trust, etc.
The FH is a new US type coin, possibly a one year only item, that will have many collectors quite interested, even if they can't afford the privy version.
The Mint often states a higher max mintage number than they probably even expect to sell, and every indication is they do not actually mint the max number up front but wait and see how things go.
Based on all the other 2024 sales, I would expect if this becomes unavailable right after the HHL of 1 is lifted, it is because they only struck 10,000 in a first run.
One thing -- Coin World just reported 17,500 of these are minted and ready to go.
If it goes unavailable right the HHL is lifted, it's because they were right, I was wrong, and LCR is currently selling FDOI 70s far too inexpensively.
I did not know that they struck them all. They do have very high hopes for this.
They sold over $150 million worth of UHRs in '09. That's $220 million today. These will generate under $65 million. And who could resist owning the World's Largest Gold Dollar! In Flowing Hair and High Relief no less.
@SilverPlatinum said:
I hope the premium is reasonable so I can afford ordering one.
Do you really not know what the premium is going to be? Because they published an updated pricing grid. We all know exactly what it is going be, down to the last penny.
@SilverPlatinum said:
I hope the premium is reasonable so I can afford ordering one.
Do you really not know what the premium is going to be? Because they published an updated pricing grid. We all know exactly what it is going be, down to the last penny.
@VanHalen said:
They sold over $150 million worth of UHRs in '09. That's $220 million today. These will generate under $65 million. And who could resist owning the World's Largest Gold Dollar! In Flowing Hair and High Relief no less.
... And the answer is, people who think the Mint is over reaching with the premium and mintage. The UHR had the historic backstory of being the realization of St. Gaudens' original vision. $300 premium to $800 gold.
All these years later, this could also be seen as nothing but a money grab. The original coin this time was silver, not gold. And they did make a silver version, but politics caused the silver version to be a medal, not a coin.
Looked at it that way, there is actually nothing compelling about this at all, and plenty will be able to resist a $3700 gold high relief to their collection when a $104 low relief version in the original metal was already produced.
Don't get me wrong -- they will sell, and they might even eventually sell out. The fact that 15% of the mintage of the 2009 UHRs will generate just over half of the 2009 revenue doesn't mean anything one way or the other.
The mintage was higher 15 years ago because there was no limit and a lot of demand, at a $300 premium to a spot price that was over 2/3 less than today. Spot being $2700 instead of $800, and the premium being $1,000 rather than $300, is absolutely going to depress demand today.
Just how much? TBD.
But it's not especially instructive to look all the way back to 2009 when we have multiple recent examples of nothing selling anywhere close to 17,500 units at a $1,000 premium to a $2700 intrinsic value. We will have a dispositive data point this time next week regarding who might or might not be able to "resist owning the World's Largest Gold Dollar! In Flowing Hair and High Relief no less."
@SilverPlatinum said:
I hope the premium is reasonable so I can afford ordering one.
Do you really not know what the premium is going to be? Because they published an updated pricing grid. We all know exactly what it is going be, down to the last penny.
Yes. Depending on exactly where gold is in any given $49.99 price range, the premium will range from $1,040 all the way down to $990.01.
The highest premium of any one ounce gold product ever produced by the Mint by a full $20. $75 more than American Liberty High Relief proofs, $100 more than gold buffaloes, $140 more than proof AGEs, and $170 more than burnished AGEs. Enjoy!
@SilverPlatinum said:
I hope the premium is reasonable so I can afford ordering one.
Do you really not know what the premium is going to be? Because they published an updated pricing grid. We all know exactly what it is going be, down to the last penny.
@Goldbully said:
I wonder if the Mint will have FH Gold Coins in stock at the Whitman Expo in Baltimore for purchase?
Or, will they only be on display?
I know I would feel a bit self-conscious walking out the door of the downtown Baltimore Convention Center with a full ounce of pure gold in my pocket.
Please report back as to what you saw and heard at the show about this new release! Many a times I have stood in the Mint line on the day of new releases! I will miss that this year.
@Goldbully said:
I wonder if the Mint will have FH Gold Coins in stock at the Whitman Expo in Baltimore for purchase?
Or, will they only be on display?
I know I would feel a bit self-conscious walking out the door of the downtown Baltimore Convention Center with a full ounce of pure gold in my pocket.
Please report back as to what you saw and heard at the show about this new release! Many a times I have stood in the Mint line on the day of new releases! I will miss that this year.
What I would love to know is whether anyone at that booth will be willing to say what happened to the missing 25K silver medals, if they don't show up in tomorrow's sales report.
Nothing else is going to be a great mystery there. If it's like most other releases at most other shows, there will be a line forming prior to noon on Thursday. They will go on sale at noon, everyone will be allowed to buy one, and the line will clear as quickly as they can run credit cards through the register.
Then there will no longer be a line. Period. If they do happen to sell out online on Friday, dealers will undoubtedly clean the Mint out of whatever they have left at the show shortly after noon on Friday.
Otherwise, you'll be able to get whatever you want with no fanfare, just like online. Which is exactly what I expect to happen with this, based on early eBay action.
Tons offered. A single completed sale today. $5,329 for FDOI 70 silver and gold. Which implies a value for the gold of under $5K, and heading lower. So exactly how much more than $3600 is a raw one worth, and who is going to be grabbing them to flip?
I never heard of the company. Anyone ever deal with them?
Yes, I've had a good experience so far. Friends have sold mid-six figures of Costco gold to them and all has gone smoothly. Customer service is very fast to answer any questions and the owner is a member on this forum: https://forums.collectors.com/profile/comments/treybenedict
I never heard of the company. Anyone ever deal with them?
Never heard of them either. I just don't love these types of offers. Really feels like it's more geared to the credit card point chasers than to people like the folks on this forum. $200 is nothing on $3700 if these end up being good, and I honestly don't trust them to be there if these end up sucking.
So what's really the point of limiting your upside on a winner to 5%, when you don't really know whether you'll be paid if things go south? I seriously doubt they'd steal your coin, although that's also always a risk, but reneging on a bad deal is a real possibility unless you are dealing with a large, well established entity.
I'd either steer clear or go all in and wait to see where the market goes, rather than committing up front to sell for a $200 profit on a $3700 risk. Of course, YMMV.
Comments
Are you saying less than 20% of the golds will grade 70?? That seems like another bad prediction.
LCR FH Gold Coin offerings listed..............all three major tpg's priced the same.
edited to add: That's a pretty hefty margin.....if the coin costs $3,700 and it sells for $5,500, that's over 32% margin.
No. He's saying that the only way you make money on this issue is IF less than 20% are 70s.
True. I guess I understand the attraction to the history of the 100 year old coin minted for commerce that somehow survived, perfectly preserved, for 100 years. Against all odds. And the organic rarity associated with a population of several hundred, or several thousand out of an original population of hundreds of thousands or millions.
Not so much with something manufactured the day before yesterday, specifically to be rare and expensive, far beyond the cost of manufacture. That said, you are, of course, correct that people should feel free to chase whatever they desire and can afford. And the Mint absolutely should feed that market and capture that value for the US Treasury.
I am not. You really, really, really have difficulty understanding things I write that seem very clear to me.
So let me explain, at length. Because my posts are not already long enough.
What that post meant was that people should not expect to make a lot of money on these. Even if they sell out.
Because, at a $1,000 premium to spot, with spot at $2,700, and with a mintage of 17,500, the Mint is already capturing most of the upside for itself. Of course, if the market rejects 17,500 at $3,700, that will be another case entirely.
The EXCEPTION will be if they don't grade so well. Read carefully -- "80%+ of them are not 70s."
That means LESS than 80% are 70s. Not 20%!. If less than 80% are 70s, and you happen to get one, you will likely be able to sell it for more than you paid, including the cost of grading.
That would be a win. Even if they don't sell out. Even at $3,700.
But it won't happen if 80%+ grade 70. Because then, just like the examples you were beating me up over before, 70s won't be special, and it will be difficult to get a premium for them. If you are again going to want to call a $20 premium over raw a "premium," I will once again disagree with you.
Not even. ~70% 70s is the modern standard, and those do command a market premium. As you get above that, not so much. So I just said 80%+, to be on the safe side, and said that if 70s grade at that rate, you won't even be able to make money with a 70.
Otherwise, you will. Less than 80%. Not less than 20%.
I reread my OP again, and see how it is not as clear as I originally thought. Because it involves a double negative. I said NOT to expect to make money, unless you get a 70 and 80%+ are not 70s. Not that 80% won't be 70s.
To @jwitten's point, until grading results come out, there is no reason with any modern to think they won't grade 70 at around a 70% rate.
There is a market premium at that rate. Significantly below that rate drives the premium up. And, of course, significantly below that rate drives it down. To zero when the net value in the slab is no different than the net value of a raw coin that wasn't slabbed.
Agreed. To me it seems aspirational, to capture the hype and anticipation ahead of the release. Plus whatever premium the bulk submitters can command through a FDOI slab unavailable to retail.
$1,800 is a lot, but 32% is nothing for a hot new issue. Which tells me they also don't expect a sell out, or big premiums even if there is a sell out. So they want to make what they can while they can.
It looks like LCR agrees with me that the Mint has stripped most of the meat off the bone in selling 17,500 at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold. Leaving only another 32% for a dealer selling FDOI 70s. If they can get it. And, you can even save $100 by not using a credit card!
Where does that leave retail buyers who don't have access to FDOI slabbing, and who might not pull a 70 from their sealed package?
But I do think the US Mint did a nice job on the design. The US Mint has been doing a better job on doing modern remakes of classic coins since Ed Moy became director.
Lmao. You're arguing with me about your 20% number!!!!! It was YOUR number.
I know! I'm saying that I realize it was unclear due to the double negative. My number was never 20%. It was 80%.
And, even that wasn't a prediction. It was nothing more than a threshold, above which I thought I was only stating the obvious -- that 70s would not command a market premium.
Nothing more, nothing less. The fact that @jwitten seems to feel compelled to scrutinize, misinterpret, and then pick apart my posts doesn't change that.
A gold piece that is a top tier certified MS70 should not have much of a premium. A modern $3,700 proof gold coin with a the grade through rate on 70s of 80%+
Of course that is with markets that respond rationally. And we know that's rarely the case.
Your posts would be clearer if you use less words, not more 😂. Your statement could be taken two ways.
“ Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s.“
I thought you were making another prediction that 80% would not grade a 70 (hence me asking if you really thought only 20% would be a 70). I now see you mean you only think 70s will be profitable if that’s the case.
Nevermind, I see at coinworld the entire production was struck.
🤣 Lmao
I tried to ignore NJcoin. I just couldn't keep doing it. Sometimes he's like the dog chasing his own tail (funny) other times the train wreck on the side of the road (disturbing). Either way I just have to look. I keep telling myself don't do it. I know I don't have to. But I keep looking.
Oh well. Thanks for the entertainment!
If 80%+ do not grade a 70, that means only 20% grade 70. That’s where there 20% came from.
Again, that's not what I am saying. I'm saying 70s will sell for a premium so long as more than 80% of them don't grade 70. 80%. Not 20%. Don't grade 70. Not grade 70.
In other words, if the 70 rate is 80%+, 70s won't be worth anything. Not that the 70 rate has to be <20% for 70s to be good!!!
And this is where the double negatives are throwing you. So I'll try again, highlighting key words.
"... or in the expectation of making any money on it. Unless you happen to pull a 70 and 80%+ of them are not 70s."
"In the expectation of making any money" means don't expect to make money. "Unless" means an exception to the prior statement is about to be set forth. "You happen to pull a 70" needs no explanation. "And" means "and." "80%+ of them are NOT 70s" means, if 80%+ of them ARE 70s, the statement doesn't apply. Otherwise it does.
Putting it all together, if you get a 70, and less than 80% of the population grades 70, you can make money with a 70. Otherwise, even a 70 won't bail you out. No prediction about how many will be 70. And absolutely no statement that a 20% 70 rate is necessary for 70s to be good.
That is NEVER the case with moderns, and 70s selling for a premium is the rule, not the exception. Notwithstanding a few recent examples of 70s coming in far above 70%, and 70 slabs going for no premium above the cost of slabbing.
If you need further explanation, I'm right here. 😀
I'm buying one. Awesome looking and pure gold. What's not to like. I believe many others have the same thought. So you pay a premium. You've got to pay to play! I'm sure there are WAY more than 17,500 collectors that can afford this coin. This is not a boring commem. or a worn out Eagle design. It's distinct and very attractive with a historic design that will never be made again. I see a quick sellout.
I was going to fully agree with you, until I got to the last sentence about the quick sell out.
I agree they look awesome. I agree there are way more than 17,500 collectors that can afford it. I disagree that there are more than 17,500 willing to make the investment, given the high price and high premium. Even though they can afford it.
I think, at the end of the day, perceived value plays an important role in what people are willing to buy. Even if they can afford it, and even if they like the design.
And I happen to think 17,500 at a $1,000 premium to $2,700 gold might be too many to expect to sell quickly, if at all, at that price and premium. We'll know by this time next week.
But it's a fact that demand is not inelastic at any price, so long as there are collectors, the product is attractive, and the collectors have money in the bank. At the right price, they could have easily sold 50K+ of these. And at an even higher price, they'd have had trouble selling even 5K.
I think these would have been gone by 12:02 p.m. on Friday if they kept the mintage to the same 12,500 they used for the last two American Liberty coins. Like you, though, they thought these were so special that they could push the premium up by a few bucks, push the mintage up by 50%, have gold go up 30%, and still have no problem selling them all. Quickly. I'm just not so sure.
Well we will see this week. No debating that!
Why can't it be made every year? The 2021 Morgan and Peace were a one off until they weren't...
It won't be, but there will be a slew of similar offerings in 2026, so it's not going to be quite as special as everyone seems to be projecting it to be. More importantly, the original coin was silver, not gold, and there is a silver tribute available. At a much more accessible price point.
This is going to rise or fall on its own merits. Not because it's not a boring commemorative or eagle. $1K premium to $2700 gold, with a mintage of 17.5K. The market will either accept it or not.
Recent history suggests the price is too high for the mintage. But maybe people advocating for it here, and the Mint, are right, and the public will pay up for it. The Mint is far from infallible, as evidenced by pricing and mintages for 2024 Morgan and Peace Dollars, but maybe this time they got it right.
OTOH, they apparently felt a need to stimulate sales of $104 silver rounds by throwing in a lottery ticket. No such effort here, and the premium to melt is $1,000 as opposed to $70, and melt is $2,700 as opposed to $34. So, what they are doing seems very ambitious to me.
I didn't say it would be, just that it could be. Every commemorative offering is unique and not unique at the same time. In fact every circulating coin is unique and not unique.
People try too hard to justify their purchases as anything other than what they are: a discretionary purchase. It's like they are either insecure in the discretionary expense or feel guilty about their privilege that allows for it.
I get it, and I'm agreeing with your general point. Specifically, though, Morgan and Peace Dollars are iconic and widely collected in a way very few other coins are. In a class with Walking Liberty halves, St. Gaudens double eagles, Mercury dimes, Buffalo nickels, etc. All of which are now subjects of ongoing series.
The FH dollar, due to its age, rarity, short life, etc., is not in that class, never was in that class, and never will be in that class. This is its tribute. Literally anything "could be." If the possibility is not reasonably likely, it really is not worth speculating about. Such as this becoming an ongoing series.
And there is no need, and no real demand. There will plenty of other similar items to chase in 2026.
Just for reference: mintage and pricing info as of today on the site.
2024 Flowing Hair max mintage 17,500 est. asking price $3,690-$3,740 range.
2024 Buffalo proof. max mintage 16,000 current price $3,640 (8,165 sold so far)
2024 Liberty and Britannia High relief, 10,000 max mintage $3,720 (5,549 sold so far)
2024 American Eagle Proof, max mintage 19,500 asking $3,600 (7,723 sold so far)
2024 Burnished American eagle max mintage 13,000 now $3,570 (2,618 sold so far)
Bottom line, the price premium for one ounce gold at the mint is high, no matter what the coin design.
All of the 2024 gold coins have max mintages way above actual coins minted and/or sold.
The 17,500-max mintage for the FH seems like a typical mint max starting point. It also seems logical considering this is a very special, high relief proof coin design, with a very unusual hundred cent value with incuse edge lettering, missing In God we trust, etc.
The FH is a new US type coin, possibly a one year only item, that will have many collectors quite interested, even if they can't afford the privy version.
The Mint often states a higher max mintage number than they probably even expect to sell, and every indication is they do not actually mint the max number up front but wait and see how things go.
Based on all the other 2024 sales, I would expect if this becomes unavailable right after the HHL of 1 is lifted, it is because they only struck 10,000 in a first run.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
One thing -- Coin World just reported 17,500 of these are minted and ready to go.
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-gold-dollar-coin-nears-sale-date
If it goes unavailable right after the HHL is lifted, it's because the Mint was right, I was wrong, and LCR is currently selling FDOI 70s far too inexpensively.
I think we should look at sales. Not optimistic maximum mintages. The Mint sold out 12,500 of the last two American Liberty High Relief gold offerings. Nothing else in your list has sold out. For years now.
Actual sales suggest 17,500 is optimistic, not realistic. As you suggest though, maybe this IS different enough from everything else to justify what the Mint is doing. We'll see by Friday.
Also, at the risk of stating the obvious, the fact that Coin World published this little tidbit a week before the gold coin was released, and before anyone asked, while the Mint is maintaining radio silence on the fate of the missing 25K silver medals, suggests something is not right, and the answer is not as simple as they weren't made and aren't going to be made. My money, now more than ever, is on it not being newsworthy because it's just a reporting delay.
.> @NJCoin said:
I did not know that they struck them all. They do have very high hopes for this.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I hope the premium is reasonable so I can afford ordering one.
They sold over $150 million worth of UHRs in '09. That's $220 million today. These will generate under $65 million. And who could resist owning the World's Largest Gold Dollar! In Flowing Hair and High Relief no less.
Do you really not know what the premium is going to be? Because they published an updated pricing grid. We all know exactly what it is going be, down to the last penny.
Where? Will it be $1000 above gold spot price?
... And the answer is, people who think the Mint is over reaching with the premium and mintage. The UHR had the historic backstory of being the realization of St. Gaudens' original vision. $300 premium to $800 gold.
All these years later, this could also be seen as nothing but a money grab. The original coin this time was silver, not gold. And they did make a silver version, but politics caused the silver version to be a medal, not a coin.
Looked at it that way, there is actually nothing compelling about this at all, and plenty will be able to resist a $3700 gold high relief to their collection when a $104 low relief version in the original metal was already produced.
Don't get me wrong -- they will sell, and they might even eventually sell out. The fact that 15% of the mintage of the 2009 UHRs will generate just over half of the 2009 revenue doesn't mean anything one way or the other.
The mintage was higher 15 years ago because there was no limit and a lot of demand, at a $300 premium to a spot price that was over 2/3 less than today. Spot being $2700 instead of $800, and the premium being $1,000 rather than $300, is absolutely going to depress demand today.
Just how much? TBD.
But it's not especially instructive to look all the way back to 2009 when we have multiple recent examples of nothing selling anywhere close to 17,500 units at a $1,000 premium to a $2700 intrinsic value. We will have a dispositive data point this time next week regarding who might or might not be able to "resist owning the World's Largest Gold Dollar! In Flowing Hair and High Relief no less."
https://www.usmint.gov/content/dam/usmint/shop/Pricing-Grid.pdf
Yes. Depending on exactly where gold is in any given $49.99 price range, the premium will range from $1,040 all the way down to $990.01.
The highest premium of any one ounce gold product ever produced by the Mint by a full $20. $75 more than American Liberty High Relief proofs, $100 more than gold buffaloes, $140 more than proof AGEs, and $170 more than burnished AGEs. Enjoy!
From November 6th post................
Basic question: Will these gold “coins” be considered Legal Tender? Does the word “unit” equal Legal Tender?
I'm guessing it's monetized as One Dollar.
The edge lettering is, "HUNDRED CENTS ONE DOLLAR OR UNIT". Making this the largest gold dollar in history, by a wide margin.
You can say that again!!!
It's good that the gold spot price is going down (at least this week).
Cuz $3600 vs $3700 will make all of the difference...
It does for me considering the exchange rate to Canadian dollar.
I wonder if the Mint will have FH Gold Coins in stock at the Whitman Expo in Baltimore for purchase?
Or, will they only be on display?
I know I would feel a bit self-conscious walking out the door of the downtown Baltimore Convention Center with a full ounce of pure gold in my pocket.
They absolutely will. The release date is no accident. It's to coincide with the opening of the show.
It's 3% in any currency
I will take all you have for face value of one dollar.
Just because I'm a nice guy
Martin
Please report back as to what you saw and heard at the show about this new release! Many a times I have stood in the Mint line on the day of new releases! I will miss that this year.
What I would love to know is whether anyone at that booth will be willing to say what happened to the missing 25K silver medals, if they don't show up in tomorrow's sales report.
Nothing else is going to be a great mystery there. If it's like most other releases at most other shows, there will be a line forming prior to noon on Thursday. They will go on sale at noon, everyone will be allowed to buy one, and the line will clear as quickly as they can run credit cards through the register.
Then there will no longer be a line. Period. If they do happen to sell out online on Friday, dealers will undoubtedly clean the Mint out of whatever they have left at the show shortly after noon on Friday.
Otherwise, you'll be able to get whatever you want with no fanfare, just like online. Which is exactly what I expect to happen with this, based on early eBay action.
Tons offered. A single completed sale today. $5,329 for FDOI 70 silver and gold. Which implies a value for the gold of under $5K, and heading lower. So exactly how much more than $3600 is a raw one worth, and who is going to be grabbing them to flip?
Here's an offer to buy on the BST board: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1108804/buying-opportunity-230th-gold-flowing-hair-coins-on-release-day-collect-pure#latest
I never heard of the company. Anyone ever deal with them?
Yes, I've had a good experience so far. Friends have sold mid-six figures of Costco gold to them and all has gone smoothly. Customer service is very fast to answer any questions and the owner is a member on this forum: https://forums.collectors.com/profile/comments/treybenedict
Never heard of them either. I just don't love these types of offers. Really feels like it's more geared to the credit card point chasers than to people like the folks on this forum. $200 is nothing on $3700 if these end up being good, and I honestly don't trust them to be there if these end up sucking.
So what's really the point of limiting your upside on a winner to 5%, when you don't really know whether you'll be paid if things go south? I seriously doubt they'd steal your coin, although that's also always a risk, but reneging on a bad deal is a real possibility unless you are dealing with a large, well established entity.
I'd either steer clear or go all in and wait to see where the market goes, rather than committing up front to sell for a $200 profit on a $3700 risk. Of course, YMMV.