“Soft close” at first sounds like it would be better for consignors, but it would throw the ‘set time’ sale aspect, which is part of GC’s unique success, right out the window.
GC would lose the collectors who don’t want to sit thru lots they have no interest in, while waiting for whenever their intended purchase might sell.
As per Dan’s suggestion, proxies would work if GC executed those bids at 5 minutes before the actual closing time, giving everyone a couple of minutes to think about jumping in with a higher bid to beat the proxies.
That way, the collector could still count on a set sale time, and the consignors might be happier, also.
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!
anyone happen to know if there's game theory research that describe the differences for buyers/sellers in something like GC's no-proxy/timed close auctions, versus proxy/timed close, versus proxy/extended bidding auctions? I imagine Ian gave this some thought, I'm curious what the real impact is?
@ProofCollection said:
This is getting off topic, but IMO the best and fairest auction system is a soft close where any action extends the time by a minute or more whenever there is action in the last fast minutes. This system gives every interested buyer the chance to bid again/higher, and the seller knows they got the most out of the auction audience and allows for true market price discovery. I know for a fact several coins I've won at GC would have gone higher without the hard close. Sure it benefits me but the seller loses out.
Actually, if anything we’re back on topic lol. But yes, I agree with you and I feel like we’re all on the same page about that. It seems like the only answers here are either “yes”, or “no, because then I wouldn’t be able to win much anymore”. That was the conclusion I was trying to decipher but I want sure if I was missing something.
@ianrussell said:
Thanks Dan. There's many reasons why we don't have a delayed proxy system, even though it would almost be unique in the auction arena for auctions with a hard close. Bidders like different ways - I can ask 100 bidders, and receive ten different ideas on how auctions should end - each which suits the person I am asking. Some people like the HA way of ending one lot after another, others like the GC way with a hard close. Some would like the option to end an auction immediately the second they are interested in it. :-)
We do have a system that will send you a text message 10 minutes before the auction will end - will that help in the case you're forgetting to bid?
You did email me a suggestion to allow only dealers some kind of special feature - that is not something we would ever consider -we built GC for everyone
@tcollects said:
anyone happen to know if there's game theory research that describe the differences for buyers/sellers in something like GC's no-proxy/timed close auctions, versus proxy/timed close, versus proxy/extended bidding auctions? I imagine Ian gave this some thought, I'm curious what the real impact is?
Game theory proves that there are some auction types which have the optimal incentive, for buyers to bid their true max (this is called "revealed preference").
One such optimal type is a sealed bid auction where the final price is the second highest bid (or one increment above second highest bid).
A sealed bid auction is equivalent to sniping a max bid on ebay. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickrey_auction
The crucial thing is that the final price has to be unaffected by your particular max bid amount. It only depends on the ordering of bid amounts.
You can achieve the same thing (dependence only on the order of max amounts, not on your particular max amount) in a standard live "English" auction, by repeatedly bidding the standard increment until everyone else reaches their max (and you get it for less than your max), or when your max is exceeded and someone else gets the item. It just takes more time to bid each of these increments.
For example, say your true max bid is $1200 and the max of all others is $1000. Say the increment is $50.
Say someone starts it at $800. People alternate increments, so $800, $850, $900, $950, $1000, $1050.
You win it at $1050. Nobody ever discovers your true max was $1200.
There is an "edge case" if your max was $1040, but I'll ignore that to keep things simple.
All this assumes your max bid is static (does not change during the auction). If you have not precomputed your max bid, then there is no optimality.
The "extended close" is a way of making it equivalent to an English auction.
@MFeld said:
Dan, it's a shame that you were made to feel you needed to explain yourself. Anyone who's paid attention to your posts and/or been in contact with you knows the good that you stand for.
Er, ah, I like Dan, I like Mark, but, both of you need to LET IT GO. GC works excellent as is. Collectors, Dealers, can all bid. As I noted, I bid early and bid what I want to pay for a coin. This is not about sniping, this is about value. If someone thinks the value for a coin is higher than I am willing to pay, Good on ya, go for it. Whether I bid early, or bid last minute, that has no bearing, I bid my value. Every auction house has a right to decide how they want to do things. Pushing, in a public forum? Surely you both understand why that is not a good approach?
@Typekat said:
“Soft close” at first sounds like it would be better for consignors, but it would throw the ‘set time’ sale aspect, which is part of GC’s unique success, right out the window.
GC would lose the collectors who don’t want to sit thru lots they have no interest in, while waiting for whenever their intended purchase might sell.
I'm not sure how much a hard close is part of their success. I'm not sure GC gains or loses bidders because of this. I can tell you that they do lose business because I hesitate to sell on platforms with hard closes because I feel it can lead to reduced proceeds for the seller.
And why does it have to work like that? Who said the auctions had to end serially? In this format, sniping has no benefit so you might as well enter your highest bid, pray, walk away, and let the chips fall where they may. There's no rule that the auctions couldn't have preset end times that all get extended independently.
I find it moderately amusing that Great Collections is pretty widely acknowledged as a really good auction house with amazing service and low fees that @ianrussell and Raeleen basically started from scratch.... And yet we all have suggestions about how he should fix it 😂
@davewesen said:
Since there is a fixed close, I suspect a sniping program could be written like those used on eBay.
What do you mean by 'proxy' feature?
What is preventing you from entering your maximum bid a week before Sunday close?
A "proxy bid" is one that you can put on a separate book that is not exercised until the lot opens in the auction. You can increase it, decrease it or cancel it all together. No one who is bidding on-line knows that you have placed it. It can't be lower than the current on-line bid obviously.
Most auction lots are sold at the time the lot opens. It is rare that there is a high bid when the lot is opened that will be successful. The proxy is like the eBay snipe, except those who have been outbid by it can bid again. I hate the eBay snipe, and will not participate in their auctions because of it.
When the auction has the 'stated close' time, when would the lot 'open' for proxy bids, at the close? How is this any different than an eBay 'snipe' program. There is no 'extended bidding' if a bid placed during last minute of auction.
Computer or internet issues can foil any best laid plan.
The proxy bids are melded in with all the other bids. If a proxy bid takes the lead, others still have several seconds to bid again.
On eBay, you can be the lead bidder when the lots “closes.” Then the snipes come in and win the lot. You, as the lead bidder when the lots “closes” have no recourse. You are a loser. That sucks, and for that reason, I will not participate in eBay auctions.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
eBay snipes have to come in before the close or else they get 'item closed' message, same as GC
so eBay snipes are at a set time like 3 seconds before close. With faster internet and eBay changing their bid confirmation process, you can bid live a few times during last 10 seconds of an auction.
Thank you gentlemen, i appreciate the support. I even appreciate Leo for recanting what he said.
, I wanted to explain myself, because the anti-dealer sentiment is deep rooted within this forum, and the collector base as a whole. Just the mere notion of a perceived advantage for dealers, which wasn't even my intention, and it’s like a dog whistle. Everyone went to clutch their pearls and cry foul.
I have no general animosity toward dealers, having once been one myself. While dealers have an insatiable appetite for more coins, they are limited by the fact that they have to sell them for a mark-up in a reasonable period of time. Therefore they cannot win crazy bids and stay in business for very long.
The people who drive me nuts are the speculators who have more money than knowledge and sometimes brains. They don’t do their homework about prices or rarity. Instead they get caught up in the bidding and drive prices through the roof. “If everyone else is bidding, it must be a good deal, right?”
People like this are around in markets like this. You could offer the same coin to them at a bourse for a lot less money, and they wouldn’t buy it.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Thank you gentlemen, i appreciate the support. I even appreciate Leo for recanting what he said.
, I wanted to explain myself, because the anti-dealer sentiment is deep rooted within this forum, and the collector base as a whole. Just the mere notion of a perceived advantage for dealers, which wasn't even my intention, and it’s like a dog whistle. Everyone went to clutch their pearls and cry foul.
I have no general animosity toward dealers, having once been one myself. While dealers have an insatiable appetite for more coins, they are limited by the fact that they have to sell them for a mark-up in a reasonable period of time. Therefore they cannot win crazy bids and stay in business for very long.
The people who drive me nuts are the speculators who have more money than knowledge and sometimes brains. They don’t do their homework about prices or rarity. Instead they get caught up in the bidding and drive prices through the roof. “If everyone else is bidding, it must be a good deal, right?”
People like this are around in markets like this. You could offer the same coin to them at a bourse for a lot less money, and they wouldn’t buy it.
Well you can bag on auction bidders all you want, but for every (legitimate) auction winner, there's another buyer willing to pay one increment less.
At least that's how I comfort myself when I win an auction and wonder afterwards if I paid too much.
@MFeld said:
Dan, it's a shame that you were made to feel you needed to explain yourself. Anyone who's paid attention to your posts and/or been in contact with you knows the good that you stand for.
Er, ah, I like Dan, I like Mark, but, both of you need to LET IT GO. GC works excellent as is. Collectors, Dealers, can all bid. As I noted, I bid early and bid what I want to pay for a coin. This is not about sniping, this is about value. If someone thinks the value for a coin is higher than I am willing to pay, Good on ya, go for it. Whether I bid early, or bid last minute, that has no bearing, I bid my value. Every auction house has a right to decide how they want to do things. Pushing, in a public forum? Surely you both understand why that is not a good approach?
Best, SH
I like you too SH, but this thread was never about pushing, it was for my own insight. And I was unfairly quoted and then attacked because of it, you don’t expect me just to let the thread stand like that without clarity do you?
Then i felt it was necessary to share some dealer insight with collectors who felt that we’re are an unnecessary obstacle in the coin cycle, and they despise “being at a disadvantage”’. Reading some of the comments on this forum over the years, you would get the impression that dealers are the scum of the earth, and auction houses are simply beyond reproach…
Ian is free to do whatever he wants, and that’s fantastic that “GC is for everyone”… but I’m also part of “everyone” , and if I want to ask the forum about bidding habits that affect the sale prices that affect “everyone”, then I will.
@ianrussell said:
Thanks Dan. There's many reasons why we don't have a delayed proxy system, even though it would almost be unique in the auction arena for auctions with a hard close. Bidders like different ways - I can ask 100 bidders, and receive ten different ideas on how auctions should end - each which suits the person I am asking. Some people like the HA way of ending one lot after another, others like the GC way with a hard close. Some would like the option to end an auction immediately the second they are interested in it. :-)
We do have a system that will send you a text message 10 minutes before the auction will end - will that help in the case you're forgetting to bid?
You did email me a suggestion to allow only dealers some kind of special feature - that is not something we would ever consider - we built GC for everyone.
Ian
I sold some coins last week for a profit, am I a dealer now? What if I subscribe to the Greysheet. Or do I need a website. Maybe I just proclaim myself to be a dealer and that’s it.
Any dealer who needs to buy at auction and mark it up to a collector base as a primary means of sourcing inventory isn’t adding any value. In the past the friction was much greater…printed catalogs with monochrome plates or no plates at all.
I’m disappointed that such a suggestion was made.
They are adding value to their clients as it saves them the time of hunting things down.
And they add value by paying the highest price at auction at the time the coin is going to sell, then inventorying said coin until a ready, willing, and able buyer turns up.
Inventorying involves tying up funds, risk of loss, storage fees, and marketing fees. And it is the main value add dealers provide.
@Jacques_Loungecoque said:
Funny you bring this up. I was just talking to my son about the no S dime. He said he expected a “huge fight at the auction.” I had to explain the format to him, like eBay really. His idea was for coins under like $5k to go by the current method. Over $5k should have the regular format and a one minute extension from every last bid. I can’t recall the term for this auction type?
Of course, the $5k was an arbitrary number, but I liked his thinking. Then again, the chance of my me buying a coin over $5k is less than Dan lending me his beaver to toy with. So, what say should I have? Nada I guess. Ok, this might’ve turned into a rant. 🤣
I agree. Hard closes aren't "real" auctions because time becomes a factor in the bidding. In soft close auctions, the bidding continues until no one will go higher not until the clock expires.
I would personally bid more at GC if there was a proxy feature.
As is, my options are as follows:
1) Enter my max bid in advance and let other bidders peck away at it until closing time which is not an appealing option and not something I would ever do at other venues.
2) Follow the auctions live on Sunday evenings and bid close to closing time which is not always possible since I, well, have a life.
So I bid when I can and let a lot of other coins go.
@CoinRaritiesOnline said:
I would personally bid more at GC if there was a proxy feature.
As is, my options are as follows:
1) Enter my max bid in advance and let other bidders peck away at it until closing time which is not an appealing option and not something I would ever do at other venues.
2) Follow the auctions live on Sunday evenings and bid close to closing time which is not always possible since I, well, have a life.
So I bid when I can and let a lot of other coins go.
Putting life before coins??? You dealers disgust me
@tcollects said:
anyone happen to know if there's game theory research that describe the differences for buyers/sellers in something like GC's no-proxy/timed close auctions, versus proxy/timed close, versus proxy/extended bidding auctions? I imagine Ian gave this some thought, I'm curious what the real impact is?
Yes. There are articles. I dug them up another time this topic was discussed.
Jim Halperin stated in an article on auctions quite a few years ago, and I'm paraphrasing, "After reviewing the auction lots
and determining what you want, set a figure for each coin and NEVER EXCEED THAT FIGURE" (emphasis his). This was
in the days of live auctions and you either had to view the lots in person, or depend on the catalog description. There was
a return privilege if you had not viewed the lot(s) in person. I love GC, but I'm with those who bid what they're willing to
pay and let the dice fall as they may. A coin is worth what it's worth.
@winesteven said:
Too bad auction sniper programs that work on eBay don’t work on GC. I’d then use them all the time.
Steve
How do you set up a snipe bid on ebay? I see people do it all the time, but I never saw a place for me to go for this.
God bless all who believe in him. Do unto others what you expect to be done to you. Dubbed a "Committee Secret Agent" by @mr1931S on 7/23/24. Founding member of CU Anti-Troll League since 9/24/24.
@winesteven said:
Too bad auction sniper programs that work on eBay don’t work on GC. I’d then use them all the time.
Steve
How do you set up a snipe bid on ebay? I see people do it all the time, but I never saw a place for me to go for this.
While there are several websites/firms, and the one I use may not be the best, I've found that auctionsniper.com has been 100% reliable for me, and I find their fee structure fair. Others might be less expensive,
The key is to avoid the system from not actually placing your bid. Then you lose out on that eBay item. To minimize that happening with me with auctionsniper.com, before I set a snipe, I have their system re-check their link to my eBay account. As noted, I've had 100% success with bids getting placed.
I hope you found this helpful.
Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!!!
@CoinRaritiesOnline said:
I would personally bid more at GC if there was a proxy feature.
As is, my options are as follows:
1) Enter my max bid in advance and let other bidders peck away at it until closing time which is not an appealing option and not something I would ever do at other venues.
2) Follow the auctions live on Sunday evenings and bid close to closing time which is not always possible since I, well, have a life.
So I bid when I can and let a lot of other coins go.
Ask Ian nicely to switch the auctions from Sunday evenings to Tuesday afternoons to accommodate the club hopping dealers.
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
I don’t think anyone said anything about extending the auction, the Sunday night times. Theoretically, a hard close and a proxy aren’t mutually exclusive features.
@rodepetdinosaur said:
Jim Halperin stated in an article on auctions quite a few years ago, and I'm paraphrasing, "After reviewing the auction lots
and determining what you want, set a figure for each coin and NEVER EXCEED THAT FIGURE" (emphasis his). This was
in the days of live auctions and you either had to view the lots in person, or depend on the catalog description. There was
a return privilege if you had not viewed the lot(s) in person. I love GC, but I'm with those who bid what they're willing to
pay and let the dice fall as they may. A coin is worth what it's worth.
Those wanting proxy bidding follow the same mantra and set their maximum bid. They just don't want their bid entered before the last few seconds of the auction. Bidding early allows others to see that someone else is interested in the auction, which usually leads to people bidding who may not have bid otherwise (if it has bids, it must be something desirable) or it gives interested parties time to chisel away at your bid and probably keep bidding until they top it just to "win", even if they overpay. Throwing out a Hail Mary bid at the last second avoids some of that. The problem arises when you aren't available to bid at the auction's closing time.
I've had a rude awakening with a hard close auction where I discovered after placing my last second bid that my home computer clock was not synced with the actual internet clock. For those who seek to place last second bids, it's helpful to open an internet clock window just to be sure you're timely!
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
@Catbert said:
I've had a rude awakening with a hard close auction where I discovered after placing my last second bid that my home computer clock was not synced with the actual internet clock. For those who seek to place last second bids, it's helpful to open an internet clock window just to be sure you're timely!
Another bit of advice is to make sure your last-second bid amount is correct. I was bidding on a coin with a Price Guide value of around $550 or so, and the current bid was probably around $350. I wanted to bid my max of $500 and accidentally submitted $5000 manually with about 10 seconds left! As luck would have it, a probable shill bid something like $975 at the same time to prevent the $350 sale and I got stuck paying $1000 for it! LMAO!
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
They aren't "never ending". They end when the highest bid is entered. This is, historically, the way all auctions were run.
Yes I’m fully aware. I do not want an auction close of 7pm to turn into 7:01:09 due to more and more bids. Publishing an up front ending time with count down timer is the best way.
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
I don’t think anyone said anything about extending the auction, the Sunday night times. Theoretically, a hard close and a proxy aren’t mutually exclusive features.
My reply is related to the idea that if there’s a bid in the last minute the auction automatically be extended another minute until there are no final bids in the last minute similar to HiBid, which I do not like at all.
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
I don’t think anyone said anything about extending the auction, the Sunday night times. Theoretically, a hard close and a proxy aren’t mutually exclusive features.
My reply is related to the idea that if there’s a bid in the last minute the auction automatically be extended another minute until there are no final bids in the last minute similar to HiBid, which I do not like at all.
No , leave it alone. Everyone needs to adjust to the auction company. If I really want a coin on gc I have to wait until the last minutes and place a bid. Each auction company has their pros and cons. The pros of gc are many and my auction firm of choice.
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
They aren't "never ending". They end when the highest bid is entered. This is, historically, the way all auctions were run.
Yes I’m fully aware. I do not want an auction close of 7pm to turn into 7:01:09 due to more and more bids. Publishing an up front ending time with count down timer is the best way.
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
They aren't "never ending". They end when the highest bid is entered. This is, historically, the way all auctions were run.
Yes I’m fully aware. I do not want an auction close of 7pm to turn into 7:01:09 due to more and more bids. Publishing an up front ending time with count down timer is the best way.
Had no experience with the Heritage sport's auctions. Final bid triggers a fresh 30 minute bidding window. Bid for a Midwest customer on the EST time zone. Auction for a scarce photograph ended after 1 am Pacific. after about 4 minimum increment bumps. My early bid won, but damn, it took a couple hours.
The only time my bidding strategy differs from setting a max and living with it is when I’m unsure about the FMV because the item is rarely available. Fortunately, this occurs for me only when the auction is an English auction and I can “attend”. In these events I end up stopping only when I start to feel like damned fool, instinctively.
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
They aren't "never ending". They end when the highest bid is entered. This is, historically, the way all auctions were run.
Yes I’m fully aware. I do not want an auction close of 7pm to turn into 7:01:09 due to more and more bids. Publishing an up front ending time with count down timer is the best way.
Why would it matter? In such a format there is no advantage waiting for the end. Enter your highest bid and hope it holds. There's no need to babysit it.
Mainly I like it as it is. The only thing that wb an improvement imo is being able use auc sniper there or something like it.
On GC I line up items for watch list then might put in small bid test the water. Slightly b4 auc close decide if put in bid last few seconds on one’s chance buy right, get good win. As I am buying for inventory, get nice flip. I know I can’t beat some rich collector player. Like a poker game….sometimes good hand sometimes not. But have had some really nice wins. USC student body left off left hash opp defense asleep on other side of field) fantastic, profit, yardage. When the big boys at ANA shows chance get some good online auction wins, whip their rear end. FUN around new years a good time get super auc wins. Buying it right, working ones angle a survival skill in RCI.
Hard close auctions are insufferable. Basic auction theory implies the rational strategy is to snipe, and if everyone snipes it becomes a de facto sealed bid auction.
The issue is psychology, and uninformed bidders. Many bidders want to know there is interest from other buyers, and will only bid what others will pay. With a hard close, sophisticated and motivated buyers want to deny these unsophisticated bidders the knowledge that an item is in high demand.
The problem is that sniping is also costly to the bidder, by making auction participation time-consuming and inconvenient. As a result, auctions with hard closes realize somewhat lower prices, because one of the top two bidders either sits out, or bids too late.
The way conventional auctions deal with the late-bidder problem is by imposing large bid increments. Then, the early bidder in effect gets dibs at any given price. The late bidder than has a choice to overpay or give in to the early bidder who facilitated price discovery by advertising that an item was in high demand.
Unfortunately then board weenies complain that the increments are too high, when in reality the early bids never would have happened with low increments and the board weenies still would have lost because they would be shocked by the rapid price escalation right at the auction close.
Given that rational strategy is to snipe, the Nash equilibrium is for a hard-close auction to become a sealed-bid auction.
However, since the rational option of a sealed bid is not technically available, bidders have to implement a sealed bid artificially, by hovering over their devices until the final five seconds.
The cost of this "hovering" is a loss to the consignor. Any time one of the top two bidders either is too busy to snipe, or encounters technical glitches and misses the auction entirely, the realized price is lower than optimal.
Many lose money at auctions if the big players, rich bidders otherwise occupied. They should try shopping their stuff around bourse at shows.
What pct of CDN bid your auction items realizing for you after fees and shipping? I wonder if your getting at least 10 pct behind bid. I do like auctions, the excitement of the hunt - get good wins here and there.
@johnny010 said:
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
They aren't "never ending". They end when the highest bid is entered. This is, historically, the way all auctions were run.
Yes I’m fully aware. I do not want an auction close of 7pm to turn into 7:01:09 due to more and more bids. Publishing an up front ending time with count down timer is the best way.
Why would it matter? In such a format there is no advantage waiting for the end. Enter your highest bid and hope it holds. There's no need to babysit it.
It matters to him because he can't snipe. He doesn't want someone coming in at 7:00:30 who is actually willing to pay more.
@hedgefundtradingdesk said:
Given that rational strategy is to snipe, the Nash equilibrium is for a hard-close auction to become a sealed-bid auction.
However, since the rational option of a sealed bid is not technically available, bidders have to implement a sealed bid artificially, by hovering over their devices until the final five seconds.
The cost of this "hovering" is a loss to the consignor. Any time one of the top two bidders either is too busy to snipe, or encounters technical glitches and misses the auction entirely, the realized price is lower than optimal.
That assumes everyone is sniping. You can't win a $500 snipe if I entered a $600 bid 5 days ago.
@SIowhand said:
15 minutes with Python will sort that out for you
Heck, if you don’t know how, chatgpt can probably write it for you.
Edited to add: just checked ChatGPT: a one sentence description gets you 95% there. I’m guessing with a better crafted question, it will get you all the way there.
This is one of the funniest things, no one even gave your comment any consideration, but I bet that most don't realize that there's several tech savvy numismatists out there that are already "sniping" on GC. I guess it cant be that big of a "disadvantage" if we don't notice it right? lol
The smart guys fly under the radar and just build it themselves, only the dumb ones like me try to talk about it instead
It’s important to realize this is the only reply that matters in this thread.
The ability to execute a proper sealed bid will not be available to dealers, or to collectors. It is available to those that can control magic, and to those willing to do the work to learn. And I think there is justice in that.
@jmlanzaf said:
That assumes everyone is sniping. You can't win a $500 snipe if I entered a $600 bid 5 days ago.
Most bidders are heel-biters. They think they know their maximum bid, but as soon as someone bids higher, their perception of value goes up. I guarantee if you bid $600 five days in advance, someone else will become absolutely convinced it is worth $601. That's why sniping is so important.
@scubafuel is right for the professional set; they will figure out how to build an app for that.
For the amateur collector, it is easy to set an alarm for one minute ahead of the hard close, but that will result in missed bids once in a while. Hence lower average prices.
Comments
“Soft close” at first sounds like it would be better for consignors, but it would throw the ‘set time’ sale aspect, which is part of GC’s unique success, right out the window.
GC would lose the collectors who don’t want to sit thru lots they have no interest in, while waiting for whenever their intended purchase might sell.
As per Dan’s suggestion, proxies would work if GC executed those bids at 5 minutes before the actual closing time, giving everyone a couple of minutes to think about jumping in with a higher bid to beat the proxies.
That way, the collector could still count on a set sale time, and the consignors might be happier, also.
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!
anyone happen to know if there's game theory research that describe the differences for buyers/sellers in something like GC's no-proxy/timed close auctions, versus proxy/timed close, versus proxy/extended bidding auctions? I imagine Ian gave this some thought, I'm curious what the real impact is?
Actually, if anything we’re back on topic lol. But yes, I agree with you and I feel like we’re all on the same page about that. It seems like the only answers here are either “yes”, or “no, because then I wouldn’t be able to win much anymore”. That was the conclusion I was trying to decipher but I want sure if I was missing something.
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GC has a great process. Gives me ample opportunity to win the lots I want and helps keep me from getting carried away. So “no”.
As, it, should, be.
Game theory proves that there are some auction types which have the optimal incentive, for buyers to bid their true max (this is called "revealed preference").
One such optimal type is a sealed bid auction where the final price is the second highest bid (or one increment above second highest bid).
A sealed bid auction is equivalent to sniping a max bid on ebay.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickrey_auction
The crucial thing is that the final price has to be unaffected by your particular max bid amount. It only depends on the ordering of bid amounts.
You can achieve the same thing (dependence only on the order of max amounts, not on your particular max amount) in a standard live "English" auction, by repeatedly bidding the standard increment until everyone else reaches their max (and you get it for less than your max), or when your max is exceeded and someone else gets the item. It just takes more time to bid each of these increments.
For example, say your true max bid is $1200 and the max of all others is $1000. Say the increment is $50.
Say someone starts it at $800. People alternate increments, so $800, $850, $900, $950, $1000, $1050.
You win it at $1050. Nobody ever discovers your true max was $1200.
There is an "edge case" if your max was $1040, but I'll ignore that to keep things simple.
All this assumes your max bid is static (does not change during the auction). If you have not precomputed your max bid, then there is no optimality.
The "extended close" is a way of making it equivalent to an English auction.
Er, ah, I like Dan, I like Mark, but, both of you need to LET IT GO. GC works excellent as is. Collectors, Dealers, can all bid. As I noted, I bid early and bid what I want to pay for a coin. This is not about sniping, this is about value. If someone thinks the value for a coin is higher than I am willing to pay, Good on ya, go for it. Whether I bid early, or bid last minute, that has no bearing, I bid my value. Every auction house has a right to decide how they want to do things. Pushing, in a public forum? Surely you both understand why that is not a good approach?
Best, SH
I don’t use proxy bid. I usually put in my max bid online and forget about it like this
I'm not sure how much a hard close is part of their success. I'm not sure GC gains or loses bidders because of this. I can tell you that they do lose business because I hesitate to sell on platforms with hard closes because I feel it can lead to reduced proceeds for the seller.
And why does it have to work like that? Who said the auctions had to end serially? In this format, sniping has no benefit so you might as well enter your highest bid, pray, walk away, and let the chips fall where they may. There's no rule that the auctions couldn't have preset end times that all get extended independently.
I find it moderately amusing that Great Collections is pretty widely acknowledged as a really good auction house with amazing service and low fees that @ianrussell and Raeleen basically started from scratch.... And yet we all have suggestions about how he should fix it 😂
The proxy bids are melded in with all the other bids. If a proxy bid takes the lead, others still have several seconds to bid again.
On eBay, you can be the lead bidder when the lots “closes.” Then the snipes come in and win the lot. You, as the lead bidder when the lots “closes” have no recourse. You are a loser. That sucks, and for that reason, I will not participate in eBay auctions.
eBay snipes have to come in before the close or else they get 'item closed' message, same as GC
so eBay snipes are at a set time like 3 seconds before close. With faster internet and eBay changing their bid confirmation process, you can bid live a few times during last 10 seconds of an auction.
I have no general animosity toward dealers, having once been one myself. While dealers have an insatiable appetite for more coins, they are limited by the fact that they have to sell them for a mark-up in a reasonable period of time. Therefore they cannot win crazy bids and stay in business for very long.
The people who drive me nuts are the speculators who have more money than knowledge and sometimes brains. They don’t do their homework about prices or rarity. Instead they get caught up in the bidding and drive prices through the roof. “If everyone else is bidding, it must be a good deal, right?”
People like this are around in markets like this. You could offer the same coin to them at a bourse for a lot less money, and they wouldn’t buy it.
Well you can bag on auction bidders all you want, but for every (legitimate) auction winner, there's another buyer willing to pay one increment less.
At least that's how I comfort myself when I win an auction and wonder afterwards if I paid too much.
I like you too SH, but this thread was never about pushing, it was for my own insight. And I was unfairly quoted and then attacked because of it, you don’t expect me just to let the thread stand like that without clarity do you?
Then i felt it was necessary to share some dealer insight with collectors who felt that we’re are an unnecessary obstacle in the coin cycle, and they despise “being at a disadvantage”’. Reading some of the comments on this forum over the years, you would get the impression that dealers are the scum of the earth, and auction houses are simply beyond reproach…
Ian is free to do whatever he wants, and that’s fantastic that “GC is for everyone”… but I’m also part of “everyone” , and if I want to ask the forum about bidding habits that affect the sale prices that affect “everyone”, then I will.
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And they add value by paying the highest price at auction at the time the coin is going to sell, then inventorying said coin until a ready, willing, and able buyer turns up.
Inventorying involves tying up funds, risk of loss, storage fees, and marketing fees. And it is the main value add dealers provide.
I agree. Hard closes aren't "real" auctions because time becomes a factor in the bidding. In soft close auctions, the bidding continues until no one will go higher not until the clock expires.
I would personally bid more at GC if there was a proxy feature.
As is, my options are as follows:
1) Enter my max bid in advance and let other bidders peck away at it until closing time which is not an appealing option and not something I would ever do at other venues.
2) Follow the auctions live on Sunday evenings and bid close to closing time which is not always possible since I, well, have a life.
So I bid when I can and let a lot of other coins go.
Coin Rarities Online
Putting life before coins??? You dealers disgust me
Yes. There are articles. I dug them up another time this topic was discussed.
Absolutely do not want never ending auctions that keep getting extended. Set a time and it's over.
They aren't "never ending". They end when the highest bid is entered. This is, historically, the way all auctions were run.
Your initial question: "Would I spend more money on GC if there was a proxy feature?
My answer is NO, I would not spend more.
I think it would be a big mistake to change it, especially if bids were extended.
I like GC just the way it is. If it isn't really broken, please don't try to fix it.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Jim Halperin stated in an article on auctions quite a few years ago, and I'm paraphrasing, "After reviewing the auction lots
and determining what you want, set a figure for each coin and NEVER EXCEED THAT FIGURE" (emphasis his). This was
in the days of live auctions and you either had to view the lots in person, or depend on the catalog description. There was
a return privilege if you had not viewed the lot(s) in person. I love GC, but I'm with those who bid what they're willing to
pay and let the dice fall as they may. A coin is worth what it's worth.
How do you set up a snipe bid on ebay? I see people do it all the time, but I never saw a place for me to go for this.
God bless all who believe in him. Do unto others what you expect to be done to you. Dubbed a "Committee Secret Agent" by @mr1931S on 7/23/24. Founding member of CU Anti-Troll League since 9/24/24.
While there are several websites/firms, and the one I use may not be the best, I've found that auctionsniper.com has been 100% reliable for me, and I find their fee structure fair. Others might be less expensive,
The key is to avoid the system from not actually placing your bid. Then you lose out on that eBay item. To minimize that happening with me with auctionsniper.com, before I set a snipe, I have their system re-check their link to my eBay account. As noted, I've had 100% success with bids getting placed.
I hope you found this helpful.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Ask Ian nicely to switch the auctions from Sunday evenings to Tuesday afternoons to accommodate the club hopping dealers.
I now use Gixen.com. It's free if and reliable as they have a redundant setup and they have a premium option if you really use the service a lot.
I like Gixen.
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I don’t think anyone said anything about extending the auction, the Sunday night times. Theoretically, a hard close and a proxy aren’t mutually exclusive features.
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Those wanting proxy bidding follow the same mantra and set their maximum bid. They just don't want their bid entered before the last few seconds of the auction. Bidding early allows others to see that someone else is interested in the auction, which usually leads to people bidding who may not have bid otherwise (if it has bids, it must be something desirable) or it gives interested parties time to chisel away at your bid and probably keep bidding until they top it just to "win", even if they overpay. Throwing out a Hail Mary bid at the last second avoids some of that. The problem arises when you aren't available to bid at the auction's closing time.
My Carson City Morgan Registry Set
I've had a rude awakening with a hard close auction where I discovered after placing my last second bid that my home computer clock was not synced with the actual internet clock. For those who seek to place last second bids, it's helpful to open an internet clock window just to be sure you're timely!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Another bit of advice is to make sure your last-second bid amount is correct. I was bidding on a coin with a Price Guide value of around $550 or so, and the current bid was probably around $350. I wanted to bid my max of $500 and accidentally submitted $5000 manually with about 10 seconds left! As luck would have it, a probable shill bid something like $975 at the same time to prevent the $350 sale and I got stuck paying $1000 for it! LMAO!
My Carson City Morgan Registry Set
Yes I’m fully aware. I do not want an auction close of 7pm to turn into 7:01:09 due to more and more bids. Publishing an up front ending time with count down timer is the best way.
My reply is related to the idea that if there’s a bid in the last minute the auction automatically be extended another minute until there are no final bids in the last minute similar to HiBid, which I do not like at all.
You would if you were the seller.
No , leave it alone. Everyone needs to adjust to the auction company. If I really want a coin on gc I have to wait until the last minutes and place a bid. Each auction company has their pros and cons. The pros of gc are many and my auction firm of choice.
Had no experience with the Heritage sport's auctions. Final bid triggers a fresh 30 minute bidding window. Bid for a Midwest customer on the EST time zone. Auction for a scarce photograph ended after 1 am Pacific. after about 4 minimum increment bumps. My early bid won, but damn, it took a couple hours.
The only time my bidding strategy differs from setting a max and living with it is when I’m unsure about the FMV because the item is rarely available. Fortunately, this occurs for me only when the auction is an English auction and I can “attend”. In these events I end up stopping only when I start to feel like damned fool, instinctively.
Why would it matter? In such a format there is no advantage waiting for the end. Enter your highest bid and hope it holds. There's no need to babysit it.
Mainly I like it as it is. The only thing that wb an improvement imo is being able use auc sniper there or something like it.
On GC I line up items for watch list then might put in small bid test the water. Slightly b4 auc close decide if put in bid last few seconds on one’s chance buy right, get good win. As I am buying for inventory, get nice flip. I know I can’t beat some rich collector player. Like a poker game….sometimes good hand sometimes not. But have had some really nice wins. USC student body left off left hash opp defense asleep on other side of field) fantastic, profit, yardage. When the big boys at ANA shows chance get some good online auction wins, whip their rear end. FUN around new years a good time get super auc wins. Buying it right, working ones angle a survival skill in RCI.
Hard close auctions are insufferable. Basic auction theory implies the rational strategy is to snipe, and if everyone snipes it becomes a de facto sealed bid auction.
The issue is psychology, and uninformed bidders. Many bidders want to know there is interest from other buyers, and will only bid what others will pay. With a hard close, sophisticated and motivated buyers want to deny these unsophisticated bidders the knowledge that an item is in high demand.
The problem is that sniping is also costly to the bidder, by making auction participation time-consuming and inconvenient. As a result, auctions with hard closes realize somewhat lower prices, because one of the top two bidders either sits out, or bids too late.
The way conventional auctions deal with the late-bidder problem is by imposing large bid increments. Then, the early bidder in effect gets dibs at any given price. The late bidder than has a choice to overpay or give in to the early bidder who facilitated price discovery by advertising that an item was in high demand.
Unfortunately then board weenies complain that the increments are too high, when in reality the early bids never would have happened with low increments and the board weenies still would have lost because they would be shocked by the rapid price escalation right at the auction close.
Rebirth. Renewal. Transformation.
Given that rational strategy is to snipe, the Nash equilibrium is for a hard-close auction to become a sealed-bid auction.
However, since the rational option of a sealed bid is not technically available, bidders have to implement a sealed bid artificially, by hovering over their devices until the final five seconds.
The cost of this "hovering" is a loss to the consignor. Any time one of the top two bidders either is too busy to snipe, or encounters technical glitches and misses the auction entirely, the realized price is lower than optimal.
Many lose money at auctions if the big players, rich bidders otherwise occupied. They should try shopping their stuff around bourse at shows.
What pct of CDN bid your auction items realizing for you after fees and shipping? I wonder if your getting at least 10 pct behind bid. I do like auctions, the excitement of the hunt - get good wins here and there.
It matters to him because he can't snipe. He doesn't want someone coming in at 7:00:30 who is actually willing to pay more.
That assumes everyone is sniping. You can't win a $500 snipe if I entered a $600 bid 5 days ago.
It’s important to realize this is the only reply that matters in this thread.
The ability to execute a proper sealed bid will not be available to dealers, or to collectors. It is available to those that can control magic, and to those willing to do the work to learn. And I think there is justice in that.
Creative idea would be random closes at any time over a Sunday evening, four hour window.
You know that a given lot will end between 7 and 11 pm, but not the time. Would eliminate the snipe strategy.
Most bidders are heel-biters. They think they know their maximum bid, but as soon as someone bids higher, their perception of value goes up. I guarantee if you bid $600 five days in advance, someone else will become absolutely convinced it is worth $601. That's why sniping is so important.
@scubafuel is right for the professional set; they will figure out how to build an app for that.
For the amateur collector, it is easy to set an alarm for one minute ahead of the hard close, but that will result in missed bids once in a while. Hence lower average prices.