@Tron said:
I'm really having a hard time understanding how regular orders are taking 3 months+ when during that same timespan there haven't been any coming in....what am I paying a hundo per card for if there's seemingly no urgency in terms of putting those ahead of others. I'm assuming they're just gonna put express out there next month with a 200 per tag on it er something to make sure it affects their flow virtually none at all because they obviously just cannot be ready for any influx at this point
right? glad someone else pointed this out. i have a regular that arrived 2/24, entered 3/31. several more entered 4/1 - 4/14. all been stuck in grading for months.
salt in the wound is absolutely zero movement on any of my bulk orders with only 4 actually reaching the grading stage outta roughly 84 various subs.
Had it been productive on the bulk subs having been there 7-8-9 months now it'd be tolerable to an extent but you're figures are right on par w mine as I have a couple hundred smaller orders w 30-50 cards per and the fact that only a handful have even shifted to grading is offensive frankly. Hearing that interview w Jeff from sports investors recently left me feeling like they're very flippant and it didn't cross me as though there was an emphasis on urgency at all really and through an hour long interview there was virtually nothing revealed in terms of progress and definitely no attempts at instilling any customer confidence on the coming months expectations...you mean to tell me that you're the owner and somehow don't have any idea what's gonna be happening in a couple weeks or how the company is cranking out an average of x orders daily or if anyone is working a little extra to move things along faster or anything along those lines. It was more like....idk, whatever, we're working on it...and I guess we're supposed to be content that our memberships were extended and that order entry was caught up? I mean idk, congratulations great job or something because its a far cry from what I expected for advances during this 3 month hiatus. Maybe instead say that you'll offer customers an appropriate discount on their expedited orders that have fallen far short of what would be expected to a level they should be ashamed of to where I shouldn't even have to say anything. I'm rather shocked that there's not even a second thought about it for them and just because its not a guaranteed service turnaround doesn't mean you throw pride out the window and ignore the fact that an extreme premium is being paid w little to no effort in delivering a service that would reflect at least something close to a decent turnaround time that doesn't share so much in common with your standard bulk order where you buckle up for a 6-8 mo run before its done. Pretty embarrassing in my perspective and numerous others in the same service are clearly running a smoother operation and haven't been shy about their processes at all corners even if it may be at a lessor volume, at least they have their s**t together. I don't see a scenario to where they don't end up buried again unless they only bring back express which won't matter because no one in their right mind would submit for however much it'll be 150-200-250 idk...just for the experience of getting to wait a painstakingly long 3-4 mos to get anything and even then it clearly won't be enough to move the needle beyond the current snails pace volume output level of which I'm beyond perplexed of how production totals have literally gone backwards and significantly at that. I've waited and waited and waited some more w only a handful of express orders to show for it w a couple reg and a voucher mixed in...is it really that much to ask for a bulk order or two to be run through in the meantime since there's well over 200 of them to pick an easy one of. I even generated virtually all of them for ease of processing like having entire orders of same player or the same card 5-7x w only 5 different cards on the order...making it so easy to process it every step of the way that it could be done in mere minutes w little effort. Nope, it's been a lotta crickets for months on end. Anyway, that's my novel rant for now...they just need to get er done, quit talkin about it and be about it
It's been 120 days since PSA reported CTD's on March 1. Since then, the time to complete the final orders for non-expedited service levels have extended 35 to 72 days from where they were on March 1, with Quarterly Specials now at a whopping 316 days.
Express and Value vintage took big jumps, moving from 4/6 => 4/29 and from 9/30 => 10/7 respectively. Anyone speculating or have info on what may or may not open up in July? I'm presuming express will be first, especially given the big jump in CTD. Also, do we think regular stays anywhere near that $100 mark or do they adjust it down?
@mrburns443 said:
Just had a 76 card Value-modern hit assembly that arrived 10/9/20 and was entered 1/14/21. Was not expecting that for a few more months.
does make you wonder about the"batch fifo" when there are so many 2020 entered subs still not getting a sniff. is the "batch fifo" a rolling 3 month window , hmmm
nevertheless it is nice to see more movement recently and nice to see the ctd roll into October for vintage
I was being a bit facetious as once a price or tax is set in most things it sort of becomes the accepted norm. But I really do wonder if they'll keep pricing as it is given that the increases were presumed to be a deterrent to slow the influx of cards. Wasn't regular $20 or $25 last spring? Why would anyone pay $100 for a $999 max value card and get a turnaround time of 6-9 months. I don't expect to see $6 or $9 fees again but $100 for regular, especially with no turnaround time expectations is obscene and $50 on economy is even worse.
I was being a bit facetious as once a price or tax is set in most things it sort of becomes the accepted norm. But I really do wonder if they'll keep pricing as it is given that the increases were presumed to be a deterrent to slow the influx of cards. Wasn't regular $20 or $25 last spring? Why would anyone pay $100 for a $999 max value card and get a turnaround time of 6-9 months. I don't expect to see $6 or $9 fees again but $100 for regular, especially with no turnaround time expectations is obscene and $50 on economy is even worse.
I think a price drop is going to require a precipitous drop off in new submissions, but will this happen in 2021? Not likely. What's more likely is a euphoric avalanche of submissions for the next 6 months, at whatever price points they re-open at, and then a general slowing submission trend as the market gets saturated with all those outstanding 2020 orders. Once all the new investor types start to panic as valuations drop due to the influx of freshly graded cards, maybe say early 2022, there will be an accelerated decline in new PSA subs, after a couple quarters of dwindling profits we might see a return to lower fees, but like you said I don't believe we will see pre-pandemic pricing ever again, ie. under $10/card for bulk. I'm calling $15-$17.50/card for a modern 100+ card bulk submission come November 2022.
One of my subs that was logged in July 2020 recently moved from assembly to QA/QC. Hoping for my other July 2020 to finish the grading stage soon. The rest of mine logged between Aug 2020 through Mar 2021 are still mostly in research stage with a couple holding in the grading phase. Hoping for anything under a 1-year T.A.T. on any of these subs (but not expecting).
I was being a bit facetious as once a price or tax is set in most things it sort of becomes the accepted norm. But I really do wonder if they'll keep pricing as it is given that the increases were presumed to be a deterrent to slow the influx of cards. Wasn't regular $20 or $25 last spring? Why would anyone pay $100 for a $999 max value card and get a turnaround time of 6-9 months. I don't expect to see $6 or $9 fees again but $100 for regular, especially with no turnaround time expectations is obscene and $50 on economy is even worse.
I think a price drop is going to require a precipitous drop off in new submissions, but will this happen in 2021? Not likely. What's more likely is a euphoric avalanche of submissions for the next 6 months, at whatever price points they re-open at, and then a general slowing submission trend as the market gets saturated with all those outstanding 2020 orders. Once all the new investor types start to panic as valuations drop due to the influx of freshly graded cards, maybe say early 2022, there will be an accelerated decline in new PSA subs, after a couple quarters of dwindling profits we might see a return to lower fees, but like you said I don't believe we will see pre-pandemic pricing ever again, ie. under $10/card for bulk. I'm calling $15-$17.50/card for a modern 100+ card bulk submission come November 2022.
Well said. I absolutely agree on the "euphoric avalanche of submissions" and on the influx of 2020 submissions that are going to hit the market. Based on the Pop-Report numbers, I expect basketball to really get hammered on prices, particularly the '20 rookie class. Since I started tracking 5 weeks ago, basketball is running >60k/wk. Baseball at 40k and football at 18k. I have a number of modern $100-200 cards that I will probably send to the tuxedo company. I'll hold out hope PSA reopens at some level that makes sense for the NFL HOF RC's I want to get slabbed.
Ultimately I'm just hoping for something price-sensible that allows me to submit some stuff for my PC and doesn't take 12 months to get back and cost me more than the card is worth while being able to flip some other stuff to pay for the PC. That model used to work really well for me, at these prices and turnaround times, it no longer does.
I was being a bit facetious as once a price or tax is set in most things it sort of becomes the accepted norm. But I really do wonder if they'll keep pricing as it is given that the increases were presumed to be a deterrent to slow the influx of cards. Wasn't regular $20 or $25 last spring? Why would anyone pay $100 for a $999 max value card and get a turnaround time of 6-9 months. I don't expect to see $6 or $9 fees again but $100 for regular, especially with no turnaround time expectations is obscene and $50 on economy is even worse.
I think a price drop is going to require a precipitous drop off in new submissions, but will this happen in 2021? Not likely. What's more likely is a euphoric avalanche of submissions for the next 6 months, at whatever price points they re-open at, and then a general slowing submission trend as the market gets saturated with all those outstanding 2020 orders. Once all the new investor types start to panic as valuations drop due to the influx of freshly graded cards, maybe say early 2022, there will be an accelerated decline in new PSA subs, after a couple quarters of dwindling profits we might see a return to lower fees, but like you said I don't believe we will see pre-pandemic pricing ever again, ie. under $10/card for bulk. I'm calling $15-$17.50/card for a modern 100+ card bulk submission come November 2022.
Well said. I absolutely agree on the "euphoric avalanche of submissions" and on the influx of 2020 submissions that are going to hit the market. Based on the Pop-Report numbers, I expect basketball to really get hammered on prices, particularly the '20 rookie class. Since I started tracking 5 weeks ago, basketball is running >60k/wk. Baseball at 40k and football at 18k. I have a number of modern $100-200 cards that I will probably send to the tuxedo company. I'll hold out hope PSA reopens at some level that makes sense for the NFL HOF RC's I want to get slabbed.
Ultimately I'm just hoping for something price-sensible that allows me to submit some stuff for my PC and doesn't take 12 months to get back and cost me more than the card is worth while being able to flip some other stuff to pay for the PC. That model used to work really well for me, at these prices and turnaround times, it no longer does.
This hobby is going to change drastically over the next year I fear. I'm very much following your strategy, I'm only going to submit cards I would be happy holding in my PC. I stopped selling on eBay altogether for various reasons and have only been adding cards to my collection I feel are still at good value price points. Lucky for me I collect hockey and it hasn't experienced the same drastic swings as the big 3 sports.
@Jayman1982 - I am showing hockey is running about 2400 cards/wk. Soccer is ~triple that. Hockey may very well end up being the most stable price-wise.
Value Modern
Arrived = 10/29/20
Logged = 01/25/21
Grading = 06/30/21
WOW! I just received the "Review Your order" email! So exciting... it's nice to see the cards actually listed on my order status page. Can't wait to finally see the grades and get these things back, even though they're now worth much less than they were 8 months ago.
I was being a bit facetious as once a price or tax is set in most things it sort of becomes the accepted norm. But I really do wonder if they'll keep pricing as it is given that the increases were presumed to be a deterrent to slow the influx of cards. Wasn't regular $20 or $25 last spring? Why would anyone pay $100 for a $999 max value card and get a turnaround time of 6-9 months. I don't expect to see $6 or $9 fees again but $100 for regular, especially with no turnaround time expectations is obscene and $50 on economy is even worse.
I think a price drop is going to require a precipitous drop off in new submissions, but will this happen in 2021? Not likely. What's more likely is a euphoric avalanche of submissions for the next 6 months, at whatever price points they re-open at, and then a general slowing submission trend as the market gets saturated with all those outstanding 2020 orders. Once all the new investor types start to panic as valuations drop due to the influx of freshly graded cards, maybe say early 2022, there will be an accelerated decline in new PSA subs, after a couple quarters of dwindling profits we might see a return to lower fees, but like you said I don't believe we will see pre-pandemic pricing ever again, ie. under $10/card for bulk. I'm calling $15-$17.50/card for a modern 100+ card bulk submission come November 2022.
Well said. I absolutely agree on the "euphoric avalanche of submissions" and on the influx of 2020 submissions that are going to hit the market. Based on the Pop-Report numbers, I expect basketball to really get hammered on prices, particularly the '20 rookie class. Since I started tracking 5 weeks ago, basketball is running >60k/wk. Baseball at 40k and football at 18k. I have a number of modern $100-200 cards that I will probably send to the tuxedo company. I'll hold out hope PSA reopens at some level that makes sense for the NFL HOF RC's I want to get slabbed.
Ultimately I'm just hoping for something price-sensible that allows me to submit some stuff for my PC and doesn't take 12 months to get back and cost me more than the card is worth while being able to flip some other stuff to pay for the PC. That model used to work really well for me, at these prices and turnaround times, it no longer does.
They'll see an avalanche the first month they open UM bulk, but nothing compared to the volume they would have received had they been open the whole time.
If not for their backlog, I doubt they'd have any trouble staying caught up with their current pricing and the current prices on the secondary market. When this started, you could get a 9 on something like a 2019 Donruss Tyler Herro and do ok with their much lower grading fees. Today, even with 10's, second/third tier base rc's from most 2019 basketball products would be money losers at $25 per slab. Same with 2020 baseball. And I don't see many people gambling on 10 2020 Chronicles Tyrese Maxey base cards at $25 each but they were getting the equivalent of that from 2019.
To put it differently--if they announced that all existing orders would be charged in accordance with today's prices or have to be returned ungraded, what % of the large 100+ orders would remain there? I'd bet less than 30%.
So, no, I don't think they'll have an avalanche of new submissions for 6 months whenever they re-open with today's prices, but the initial surge will be large so it makes sense to delay it. Unlike other fees (like ebay), grading fees have always ebbed and flowed and that will continue.
The only two dates that matter to me are the date the cards leave my house, and the date the cards return to my house. Everything else is just random movements of the cards along the assembly line.
I have an order that left my house on 06/30/20, which makes it one full year. And the order is still in grading! Disgraceful.
The sad part about it is that it was my son's first order. He was so excited when he saw that his cards actually had good value. Now the excitement is gone, the values are dropping, and PSA has probably lost a potential future customer right from the start. He doesn't even ask about it anymore. Just sucks.
Bernie Carlen
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
Expectations are always letdowns. And anyone foolish- or brave enough - to tempt "profit" in this industry better have a business hobby IQ well above normal, or develop an impeccable sense of hobby timing ,and have enough stuff in line to always have something burning hot.
CTD is off . By quite a bit. They are still handling the end of Sept bulk lambasting just before the 1st price increase. I am seeing some Oct start of month trickle out, but not much else bulk wise. Still in about a 12 -13 month cycle there.
While all my old Economy are now done, same cant be said of my Regular, and based on new pricing my mouth stays shut.
Didn't expect them back until July ,and that's looking like the case. Just in time for the National is all I cared about.
There was panic bill paying days in April 2020 where tons of good buys were made on a lot of current and future HOF in various sports, and I am seeing panic selling days starting again as credit card bills are coming due and people need to recoup expenses (apparently they spent the Covid $$ they were supposed to save to pay for these orders).
@blurryface I expect nothing less- money week they always blast out the $$$ subs last week of every month
Gotta move that EBITDA bar
I'm wondering if my prediction is correct? They will not open an East coast office that grades cards. Having a company that is in a very high priced area is not good. What kind of job candidates can live in Newport Beach? They must get 18 year olds who live at home with mom and dad. Anyone have any info on this. I mean, what would a nice 1 bedroom apartment cost in Newport Beach?? Isn't SGC in some resort area also?
@Mickey71 said:
I'm wondering if my prediction is correct? They will not open an East coast office that grades cards. Having a company that is in a very high priced area is not good. What kind of job candidates can live in Newport Beach? They must get 18 year olds who live at home with mom and dad. Anyone have any info on this. I mean, what would a nice 1 bedroom apartment cost in Newport Beach?? Isn't SGC in some resort area also?
That's the ultimate truth! We must have at least ..... 4 PSA facilities that GRADE every corner of the USA! PSA could do this , so we'll never be backed up again! It's the only..... Smartest option!
@Mickey71 said:
I'm wondering if my prediction is correct? They will not open an East coast office that grades cards. Having a company that is in a very high priced area is not good. What kind of job candidates can live in Newport Beach? They must get 18 year olds who live at home with mom and dad. Anyone have any info on this. I mean, what would a nice 1 bedroom apartment cost in Newport Beach?? Isn't SGC in some resort area also?
That's the ultimate truth! We must have at least ..... 4 PSA facilities that GRADE every corner of the USA! PSA could do this , so we'll never be backed up again! It's the only..... Smartest option!
4 facilities is surely not going to happen. I'm surprised they did not have 2 facilities 10 years ago.
@Mickey71 said:
I'm wondering if my prediction is correct? They will not open an East coast office that grades cards. Having a company that is in a very high priced area is not good. What kind of job candidates can live in Newport Beach? They must get 18 year olds who live at home with mom and dad. Anyone have any info on this. I mean, what would a nice 1 bedroom apartment cost in Newport Beach?? Isn't SGC in some resort area also?
That's the ultimate truth! We must have at least ..... 4 PSA facilities that GRADE every corner of the USA! PSA could do this , so we'll never be backed up again! It's the only..... Smartest option!
4 facilities is surely not going to happen. I'm surprised they did not have 2 facilities 10 years ago.
Well, how about 3? East coast and smack dab Texas?
@Mickey71 said:
I'm wondering if my prediction is correct? They will not open an East coast office that grades cards. Having a company that is in a very high priced area is not good. What kind of job candidates can live in Newport Beach? They must get 18 year olds who live at home with mom and dad. Anyone have any info on this. I mean, what would a nice 1 bedroom apartment cost in Newport Beach?? Isn't SGC in some resort area also?
That's the ultimate truth! We must have at least ..... 4 PSA facilities that GRADE every corner of the USA! PSA could do this , so we'll never be backed up again! It's the only..... Smartest option!
4 facilities is surely not going to happen. I'm surprised they did not have 2 facilities 10 years ago.
Well, how about 3? East coast and smack dab Texas?
I think we'll be lucky if they open 1 more. It's not rocket science and it hasn't happened yet. We'll see. They have a lot of things on their plate. They better come up with some answers about high prices and cards taking 1.5-2 years to grade. This is not all bad; but they better figure it out soon or it could get bad/worse.
@OneDaysRide said:
Big changes reported on today's CTD page ...
Only opening express at 200 seems they are committed to working through the Value backlogs to maybe keep the turnarounds under a year
lets let the kidding stop. of course its not really under a year w a 3 month “log in” period. as many have stated, theres really only 2 dates we care about. the date they arrive and the date they ship. the rest is just fluff to make it appear as if it isnt really as bad as it truly is.
Is it just me, or have they not really made much progress? I would have thought that after shutting down new submissions months ago and hiring hordes of new people, that they would have made much more progress...I am really kind of surprised they are still this backed up.
@azvike said:
Is it just me, or have they not really made much progress? I would have thought that after shutting down new submissions months ago and hiring hordes of new people, that they would have made much more progress...I am really kind of surprised they are still this backed up.
not just you. have subs dating back to 10/12/20 that arent even in grading yet. closing in on 8 months and still researching. they shouldnt even be opening express, imo.
Opening express was predictable at 200 because it sidesteps any concerns in terms of why they didn't do what they said they were gonna do and so on. It's clearly not appealing for most to pay that much only to get a 4 month turnaround as the definition of "express" when you can flip it at least 2x-3x via alternative avenues. Another week goes by with absolute crickets which is almost mathematically impossible when you have about 10 reg orders and 200+ bulk orders having been there all year by majority. The "Jordan Years" quarterly special is dangerously nearing it's anniversary...at $9/card I have no doubt that it'll get there. They probably giggle when they walk by it as they mutter something about feeling sorry for me or "I hope he's not in any hurry to get those back"
What level were these subbed at? I have a pack order logged in Jan that hasn’t budged. Granted, it’s 19 post-1981 (cheapest level at the time) wax packs with some “on front/back” designations that probably require some research, but I’m hoping to hear your packs which are flying through at a much faster pace are at a higher level…
@azvike said:
Is it just me, or have they not really made much progress? I would have thought that after shutting down new submissions months ago and hiring hordes of new people, that they would have made much more progress...I am really kind of surprised they are still this backed up.
I don't think we really know if they've hired a bunch of new people. Maybe there's 20 graders. Maybe there's 50 graders. Maybe computers are doing some of the grading. Maybe computers aren't doing any of the grading process. Maybe they're opening an east coast grading office. Maybe they are not opening an east coast grading office. The entire process isn't very transparent. I do think the one thing that is very interesting is that having too much business is actually a problem. Getting too many cards to grade is actually a problem. It is unbelievable. Downright unbelievable. Crazy times.
What level were these subbed at? I have a pack order logged in Jan that hasn’t budged. Granted, it’s 19 post-1981 (cheapest level at the time) wax packs with some “on front/back” designations that probably require some research, but I’m hoping to hear your packs which are flying through at a much faster pace are at a higher level…
@OneDaysRide said:
Big changes reported on today's CTD page ...
I can understand express is "caught up", which is what i assume "complete" is supposed to mean. However, how is economy "complete" when it was 9/30/20 as of yesterday? Wasn't that shut down at the same time as everything else? Also, CC Vouchers have not moved since 5/27/21. Is that because they marked them "Sold Out" in mid-September? I feel like my eyes are burning from the smoke and mirrors. And do we really think anyone has been bouncing in their chair waiting for a $200 express level to open up? If I have a card worth spending $200 to be graded, I probably could have convinced myself it was worth $300 and a much faster turnaround time, especially knowing express wasn't going to open up again until at least 7/1.
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but do you have to be a current PSA member to send in cards under the Express or Super Express? I can't find this info anywhere on their site, and you can't currently subscribe for a membership.
The next two years are going to be crazy. The PSA backlog is dangerous to itself and all of us in the hobby. Millions of graded cards will be entering a cooling market, and many undergraded cards will be sold into this market as well by people who entered in the 2020 rush. I think it will drive away a ton of collectors who were ready to embrace the hobby again but will feel angry/jaded/used by their own third party grading experience and also burned by bad spending on PSA cards that will have lost 30-50 percent of value in many cases.
Meanwhile, PSA is staging up for a permanent increase in volume, but there really is no telling what the bomb they have created will do to this industry when it fully explodes on the hobby in the next 12 months.
We have parked our liquidity in Newport Beach for a year or more in many cases, and I know I'm not pleased that I couldn't take advantage of the selling opportunities that were out there for my cards. The biggest loss to this hobby in my mind has been the inability for anyone to truly take advantage and build upon the massive influx of interest in PSA graded cards. Yes, your Jim Brown rookies will get graded in weeks still, but for every person playing in that arena, there are 1000 playing in the arena of 2019 Prizm basketball. Perhaps if there wasn't a massive backlog those 1000 collectors would have generated sustainable connections with the hobby and marketplace.
At this current pace of uncertainty. I don't believe it was a good move opening back up today for Express. It should be dealt with now and not piling on more. To me, that's asking for trouble. I can actually see another pile on coming. This time around.... Jobs could be on the line. I appreciate the effort, but good grief.... Don't overload yourself more in the name of money.
Why would anyone be interested in paying 200/card for at best a 3 month wait...I'm pretty sure that, even though some will, there will be little movement on the needle. Might as well just drop the 3 bills and at least that way you'll cut your turnaround time by 2/3 and to me that's a no brainer...IF I were in that predicament which I will not be subjecting myself to beyond the half dozen or so regular orders currently outstanding which has been enough abuse as it is and I'm getting waxed at a hundo per card for that painstaking honor. There won't be any hoard of graded cards hitting the market and flooding it either...they can't even churn out what would be necessary for a flood to be felt in the market. Expect steady doses of fluff for the foreseeable future as I believe they're in deeper than we even realize because otherwise we'd be getting more figures to reflect significant progress because it would be prideful. We would likely freak out if we knew the reality which is precisely why they haven't. They're in California where deflection/diversion is an artform the practice often
Tron said:
Another week goes by with absolute crickets which is almost mathematically impossible when you have about 10 reg orders and 200+ bulk orders having been there all year
I can't even imagine that many cards/orders being out there let alone the credit card charges that are forthcoming. Just wow!! Hopefully not a lot of the hot then & not now stuff.
notes: grades were slightly below what i thought. for those keeping tally via ctd, this was a group sub. they are their own beast. numbers and dates are not included with the figures stated in the published ctds.
Comments
84 subs?...Wow, Blurry...I thought my 11 was a lot...LOL - Good Luck on them!
yep. unfortunately now. it was mostly fun while it lasted.
Had it been productive on the bulk subs having been there 7-8-9 months now it'd be tolerable to an extent but you're figures are right on par w mine as I have a couple hundred smaller orders w 30-50 cards per and the fact that only a handful have even shifted to grading is offensive frankly. Hearing that interview w Jeff from sports investors recently left me feeling like they're very flippant and it didn't cross me as though there was an emphasis on urgency at all really and through an hour long interview there was virtually nothing revealed in terms of progress and definitely no attempts at instilling any customer confidence on the coming months expectations...you mean to tell me that you're the owner and somehow don't have any idea what's gonna be happening in a couple weeks or how the company is cranking out an average of x orders daily or if anyone is working a little extra to move things along faster or anything along those lines. It was more like....idk, whatever, we're working on it...and I guess we're supposed to be content that our memberships were extended and that order entry was caught up? I mean idk, congratulations great job or something because its a far cry from what I expected for advances during this 3 month hiatus. Maybe instead say that you'll offer customers an appropriate discount on their expedited orders that have fallen far short of what would be expected to a level they should be ashamed of to where I shouldn't even have to say anything. I'm rather shocked that there's not even a second thought about it for them and just because its not a guaranteed service turnaround doesn't mean you throw pride out the window and ignore the fact that an extreme premium is being paid w little to no effort in delivering a service that would reflect at least something close to a decent turnaround time that doesn't share so much in common with your standard bulk order where you buckle up for a 6-8 mo run before its done. Pretty embarrassing in my perspective and numerous others in the same service are clearly running a smoother operation and haven't been shy about their processes at all corners even if it may be at a lessor volume, at least they have their s**t together. I don't see a scenario to where they don't end up buried again unless they only bring back express which won't matter because no one in their right mind would submit for however much it'll be 150-200-250 idk...just for the experience of getting to wait a painstakingly long 3-4 mos to get anything and even then it clearly won't be enough to move the needle beyond the current snails pace volume output level of which I'm beyond perplexed of how production totals have literally gone backwards and significantly at that. I've waited and waited and waited some more w only a handful of express orders to show for it w a couple reg and a voucher mixed in...is it really that much to ask for a bulk order or two to be run through in the meantime since there's well over 200 of them to pick an easy one of. I even generated virtually all of them for ease of processing like having entire orders of same player or the same card 5-7x w only 5 different cards on the order...making it so easy to process it every step of the way that it could be done in mere minutes w little effort. Nope, it's been a lotta crickets for months on end. Anyway, that's my novel rant for now...they just need to get er done, quit talkin about it and be about it
It's been 120 days since PSA reported CTD's on March 1. Since then, the time to complete the final orders for non-expedited service levels have extended 35 to 72 days from where they were on March 1, with Quarterly Specials now at a whopping 316 days.
great design. makes the lack of movement almost bearable.
who am i kidding? no it doesnt.
Express and Value vintage took big jumps, moving from 4/6 => 4/29 and from 9/30 => 10/7 respectively. Anyone speculating or have info on what may or may not open up in July? I'm presuming express will be first, especially given the big jump in CTD. Also, do we think regular stays anywhere near that $100 mark or do they adjust it down?
This made me giggle
me too
Just had a 76 card Value-modern hit assembly that arrived 10/9/20 and was entered 1/14/21. Was not expecting that for a few more months.
does make you wonder about the"batch fifo" when there are so many 2020 entered subs still not getting a sniff. is the "batch fifo" a rolling 3 month window , hmmm
nevertheless it is nice to see more movement recently and nice to see the ctd roll into October for vintage
I was being a bit facetious as once a price or tax is set in most things it sort of becomes the accepted norm. But I really do wonder if they'll keep pricing as it is given that the increases were presumed to be a deterrent to slow the influx of cards. Wasn't regular $20 or $25 last spring? Why would anyone pay $100 for a $999 max value card and get a turnaround time of 6-9 months. I don't expect to see $6 or $9 fees again but $100 for regular, especially with no turnaround time expectations is obscene and $50 on economy is even worse.
I think a price drop is going to require a precipitous drop off in new submissions, but will this happen in 2021? Not likely. What's more likely is a euphoric avalanche of submissions for the next 6 months, at whatever price points they re-open at, and then a general slowing submission trend as the market gets saturated with all those outstanding 2020 orders. Once all the new investor types start to panic as valuations drop due to the influx of freshly graded cards, maybe say early 2022, there will be an accelerated decline in new PSA subs, after a couple quarters of dwindling profits we might see a return to lower fees, but like you said I don't believe we will see pre-pandemic pricing ever again, ie. under $10/card for bulk. I'm calling $15-$17.50/card for a modern 100+ card bulk submission come November 2022.
One of my subs that was logged in July 2020 recently moved from assembly to QA/QC. Hoping for my other July 2020 to finish the grading stage soon. The rest of mine logged between Aug 2020 through Mar 2021 are still mostly in research stage with a couple holding in the grading phase. Hoping for anything under a 1-year T.A.T. on any of these subs (but not expecting).
Had surprise movement this week. 74 card football special:
Arrived: 1/5
Entered: 1/11
Grading: 6/28
Well said. I absolutely agree on the "euphoric avalanche of submissions" and on the influx of 2020 submissions that are going to hit the market. Based on the Pop-Report numbers, I expect basketball to really get hammered on prices, particularly the '20 rookie class. Since I started tracking 5 weeks ago, basketball is running >60k/wk. Baseball at 40k and football at 18k. I have a number of modern $100-200 cards that I will probably send to the tuxedo company. I'll hold out hope PSA reopens at some level that makes sense for the NFL HOF RC's I want to get slabbed.
Ultimately I'm just hoping for something price-sensible that allows me to submit some stuff for my PC and doesn't take 12 months to get back and cost me more than the card is worth while being able to flip some other stuff to pay for the PC. That model used to work really well for me, at these prices and turnaround times, it no longer does.
This hobby is going to change drastically over the next year I fear. I'm very much following your strategy, I'm only going to submit cards I would be happy holding in my PC. I stopped selling on eBay altogether for various reasons and have only been adding cards to my collection I feel are still at good value price points. Lucky for me I collect hockey and it hasn't experienced the same drastic swings as the big 3 sports.
@Jayman1982 - I am showing hockey is running about 2400 cards/wk. Soccer is ~triple that. Hockey may very well end up being the most stable price-wise.
Value Modern
Arrived = 10/29/20
Logged = 01/25/21
Grading = 06/30/21
WOW! I just received the "Review Your order" email! So exciting... it's nice to see the cards actually listed on my order status page. Can't wait to finally see the grades and get these things back, even though they're now worth much less than they were 8 months ago.
subbed for a buddy. cant get my 3 month regular out, but they sure are banging these $300 subs out quick.
Their monologue about FIFO on their site....I mean do the people that write that stuff even look at what actually is happening? Not really, it seems.
My Yzerman rookies all took a 30-50% cut at PSA9 and lower....not sure hockey will be spared.
Things will get worse before they get better. Am I talking about the market? PSA glacial TAT? My cholesterol based on this trip to the Chinese buffet?
YES!
They'll see an avalanche the first month they open UM bulk, but nothing compared to the volume they would have received had they been open the whole time.
If not for their backlog, I doubt they'd have any trouble staying caught up with their current pricing and the current prices on the secondary market. When this started, you could get a 9 on something like a 2019 Donruss Tyler Herro and do ok with their much lower grading fees. Today, even with 10's, second/third tier base rc's from most 2019 basketball products would be money losers at $25 per slab. Same with 2020 baseball. And I don't see many people gambling on 10 2020 Chronicles Tyrese Maxey base cards at $25 each but they were getting the equivalent of that from 2019.
To put it differently--if they announced that all existing orders would be charged in accordance with today's prices or have to be returned ungraded, what % of the large 100+ orders would remain there? I'd bet less than 30%.
So, no, I don't think they'll have an avalanche of new submissions for 6 months whenever they re-open with today's prices, but the initial surge will be large so it makes sense to delay it. Unlike other fees (like ebay), grading fees have always ebbed and flowed and that will continue.
The only two dates that matter to me are the date the cards leave my house, and the date the cards return to my house. Everything else is just random movements of the cards along the assembly line.
I have an order that left my house on 06/30/20, which makes it one full year. And the order is still in grading! Disgraceful.
The sad part about it is that it was my son's first order. He was so excited when he saw that his cards actually had good value. Now the excitement is gone, the values are dropping, and PSA has probably lost a potential future customer right from the start. He doesn't even ask about it anymore. Just sucks.
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
Expectations are always letdowns. And anyone foolish- or brave enough - to tempt "profit" in this industry better have a business hobby IQ well above normal, or develop an impeccable sense of hobby timing ,and have enough stuff in line to always have something burning hot.
CTD is off . By quite a bit. They are still handling the end of Sept bulk lambasting just before the 1st price increase. I am seeing some Oct start of month trickle out, but not much else bulk wise. Still in about a 12 -13 month cycle there.
While all my old Economy are now done, same cant be said of my Regular, and based on new pricing my mouth stays shut.
Didn't expect them back until July ,and that's looking like the case. Just in time for the National is all I cared about.
There was panic bill paying days in April 2020 where tons of good buys were made on a lot of current and future HOF in various sports, and I am seeing panic selling days starting again as credit card bills are coming due and people need to recoup expenses (apparently they spent the Covid $$ they were supposed to save to pay for these orders).
@blurryface I expect nothing less- money week they always blast out the $$$ subs last week of every month
Gotta move that EBITDA bar
I'm wondering if my prediction is correct? They will not open an East coast office that grades cards. Having a company that is in a very high priced area is not good. What kind of job candidates can live in Newport Beach? They must get 18 year olds who live at home with mom and dad. Anyone have any info on this. I mean, what would a nice 1 bedroom apartment cost in Newport Beach?? Isn't SGC in some resort area also?
That's the ultimate truth! We must have at least ..... 4 PSA facilities that GRADE every corner of the USA! PSA could do this , so we'll never be backed up again! It's the only..... Smartest option!
4 facilities is surely not going to happen. I'm surprised they did not have 2 facilities 10 years ago.
Well, how about 3? East coast and smack dab Texas?
I think we'll be lucky if they open 1 more. It's not rocket science and it hasn't happened yet. We'll see. They have a lot of things on their plate. They better come up with some answers about high prices and cards taking 1.5-2 years to grade. This is not all bad; but they better figure it out soon or it could get bad/worse.
Big changes reported on today's CTD page ...
Submitted a few packs. These are my first pack submissions.
Arrived = 04/05/21
Logged = 05/13/21
Assembly = 06/30/21
express @ $200 is opened.
A bunch of new info for sure.
I wonder how there is a CC voucher from June 29th?
Also, it seems the bulk submitters are not included in the CTD where it was assumed that the "20 day" was being included in Economy
Only opening express at 200 seems they are committed to working through the Value backlogs to maybe keep the turnarounds under a year
lets let the kidding stop. of course its not really under a year w a 3 month “log in” period. as many have stated, theres really only 2 dates we care about. the date they arrive and the date they ship. the rest is just fluff to make it appear as if it isnt really as bad as it truly is.
Is it just me, or have they not really made much progress? I would have thought that after shutting down new submissions months ago and hiring hordes of new people, that they would have made much more progress...I am really kind of surprised they are still this backed up.
not just you. have subs dating back to 10/12/20 that arent even in grading yet. closing in on 8 months and still researching. they shouldnt even be opening express, imo.
Opening express was predictable at 200 because it sidesteps any concerns in terms of why they didn't do what they said they were gonna do and so on. It's clearly not appealing for most to pay that much only to get a 4 month turnaround as the definition of "express" when you can flip it at least 2x-3x via alternative avenues. Another week goes by with absolute crickets which is almost mathematically impossible when you have about 10 reg orders and 200+ bulk orders having been there all year by majority. The "Jordan Years" quarterly special is dangerously nearing it's anniversary...at $9/card I have no doubt that it'll get there. They probably giggle when they walk by it as they mutter something about feeling sorry for me or "I hope he's not in any hurry to get those back"
What level were these subbed at? I have a pack order logged in Jan that hasn’t budged. Granted, it’s 19 post-1981 (cheapest level at the time) wax packs with some “on front/back” designations that probably require some research, but I’m hoping to hear your packs which are flying through at a much faster pace are at a higher level…
Jim
I don't think we really know if they've hired a bunch of new people. Maybe there's 20 graders. Maybe there's 50 graders. Maybe computers are doing some of the grading. Maybe computers aren't doing any of the grading process. Maybe they're opening an east coast grading office. Maybe they are not opening an east coast grading office. The entire process isn't very transparent. I do think the one thing that is very interesting is that having too much business is actually a problem. Getting too many cards to grade is actually a problem. It is unbelievable. Downright unbelievable. Crazy times.
Regular service level.
I can understand express is "caught up", which is what i assume "complete" is supposed to mean. However, how is economy "complete" when it was 9/30/20 as of yesterday? Wasn't that shut down at the same time as everything else? Also, CC Vouchers have not moved since 5/27/21. Is that because they marked them "Sold Out" in mid-September? I feel like my eyes are burning from the smoke and mirrors. And do we really think anyone has been bouncing in their chair waiting for a $200 express level to open up? If I have a card worth spending $200 to be graded, I probably could have convinced myself it was worth $300 and a much faster turnaround time, especially knowing express wasn't going to open up again until at least 7/1.
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but do you have to be a current PSA member to send in cards under the Express or Super Express? I can't find this info anywhere on their site, and you can't currently subscribe for a membership.
The next two years are going to be crazy. The PSA backlog is dangerous to itself and all of us in the hobby. Millions of graded cards will be entering a cooling market, and many undergraded cards will be sold into this market as well by people who entered in the 2020 rush. I think it will drive away a ton of collectors who were ready to embrace the hobby again but will feel angry/jaded/used by their own third party grading experience and also burned by bad spending on PSA cards that will have lost 30-50 percent of value in many cases.
Meanwhile, PSA is staging up for a permanent increase in volume, but there really is no telling what the bomb they have created will do to this industry when it fully explodes on the hobby in the next 12 months.
We have parked our liquidity in Newport Beach for a year or more in many cases, and I know I'm not pleased that I couldn't take advantage of the selling opportunities that were out there for my cards. The biggest loss to this hobby in my mind has been the inability for anyone to truly take advantage and build upon the massive influx of interest in PSA graded cards. Yes, your Jim Brown rookies will get graded in weeks still, but for every person playing in that arena, there are 1000 playing in the arena of 2019 Prizm basketball. Perhaps if there wasn't a massive backlog those 1000 collectors would have generated sustainable connections with the hobby and marketplace.
Nathanael
At this current pace of uncertainty. I don't believe it was a good move opening back up today for Express. It should be dealt with now and not piling on more. To me, that's asking for trouble. I can actually see another pile on coming. This time around.... Jobs could be on the line. I appreciate the effort, but good grief.... Don't overload yourself more in the name of money.
Why would anyone be interested in paying 200/card for at best a 3 month wait...I'm pretty sure that, even though some will, there will be little movement on the needle. Might as well just drop the 3 bills and at least that way you'll cut your turnaround time by 2/3 and to me that's a no brainer...IF I were in that predicament which I will not be subjecting myself to beyond the half dozen or so regular orders currently outstanding which has been enough abuse as it is and I'm getting waxed at a hundo per card for that painstaking honor. There won't be any hoard of graded cards hitting the market and flooding it either...they can't even churn out what would be necessary for a flood to be felt in the market. Expect steady doses of fluff for the foreseeable future as I believe they're in deeper than we even realize because otherwise we'd be getting more figures to reflect significant progress because it would be prideful. We would likely freak out if we knew the reality which is precisely why they haven't. They're in California where deflection/diversion is an artform the practice often
I sent in a Super Express
Arrived = 06/30/21
Logged = 06/30/21
QACHECK 2 = 07/01/21
I'm shocked it should be shipped today. Edited- They shipped today, grades about what I expected, not disappointed.
Tron said:
Another week goes by with absolute crickets which is almost mathematically impossible when you have about 10 reg orders and 200+ bulk orders having been there all year
I can't even imagine that many cards/orders being out there let alone the credit card charges that are forthcoming. Just wow!! Hopefully not a lot of the hot then & not now stuff.
Lol boy you guys most have some serious money doing super duper Express 😂 good for you!👍
Gotta ask...what was the card and grade?
25 card, economy
arrived: 10/20/20
logged: 10/26/20
popped: 6/30/21
notes: grades were slightly below what i thought. for those keeping tally via ctd, this was a group sub. they are their own beast. numbers and dates are not included with the figures stated in the published ctds.
A few vintage HOF baseball for my PC.