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Thanks to John Nanney's Discovery, 2008 ASE's with 2007 reverse going through the roof

16162646667139

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    halfhunterhalfhunter Posts: 2,770 ✭✭✭


    << <i>280 auctions
    -69 97/280 34.6%
    -70 78/280 27.9
    Other 105/280 37.5 >>



    Isn't this a large percentage increase in graded pieces from previous counts?
    I'm guessing that this is just a temp spike in listings as more folks are getting these back from the TPGs and trying to recoup some $ $ $.

    Regards, John


    Need the following OBW rolls to complete my 46-64 Roosevelt roll set:
    1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
    Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
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    jsfjsf Posts: 1,889
    It appears a large share of raw items are dropping off, thus driving up the apparent percentage of gradeds? Am I looking at this right? The dump of regular labels isn't helping matters. Some of the better market analysts are needed here! What's going on with these? I just list numbers.

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    << <i>more folks are getting these back from the TPGs and trying to recoup some $ $ $. >>

    image
    A predictable normal market scenario. In the end the Mint did not increase the numbers of the 08's w/ 07 reverse. image Still 47K and most likely even much less. image And we all know what that means.
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    << <i>

    << <i>more folks are getting these back from the TPGs and trying to recoup some $ $ $. >>

    image
    A predictable normal market scenario.

    "In the end the Mint did not increase the numbers of the 08's w/ 07 reverse. image Still 47K and most likely even much less. image And we all know what that means. >>

    "

    This will be interesting to see in 3 months.

    I have an idea but to ponder a guess would just be pure speculation.

    However I do a gree with where you are coming from.
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    Well I spelled agree wrong here.

    I am just wondering if anybody has the stats regarding the amount of ER NGC 70's and 69's of these coins.

    Thanks
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    << <i>Well I spelled agree wrong here.

    I am just wondering if anybody has the stats regarding the amount of ER NGC 70's and 69's of these coins.

    Thanks >>



    NGC MS70 ER 3087
    NGC MS69 ER 3759

    BROWN LABEL
    NGC MS70 1980
    NGC MS69 1908
    HAVE A GOOD DAY!!
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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,026 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>more folks are getting these back from the TPGs and trying to recoup some $ $ $. >>

    image
    A predictable normal market scenario. In the end the Mint did not increase the numbers of the 08's w/ 07 reverse. image Still 47K and most likely even much less. image And we all know what that means. >>



    Not all of us know what it means, but I'm glad that we speak the truth.

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    BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,017 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Well I spelled agree wrong here.

    I am just wondering if anybody has the stats regarding the amount of ER NGC 70's and 69's of these coins.

    Thanks >>



    NGC MS70 ER 3087
    NGC MS69 ER 3759

    BROWN LABEL
    NGC MS70 1980
    NGC MS69 1908
    HAVE A GOOD DAY!! >>



    hmmm looks like NGC has graded about a 4th of the alleged Memphis 47,000.
    theknowitalltroll;
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    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Well I spelled agree wrong here.

    I am just wondering if anybody has the stats regarding the amount of ER NGC 70's and 69's of these coins.

    Thanks >>



    NGC MS70 ER 3087
    NGC MS69 ER 3759

    BROWN LABEL
    NGC MS70 1980
    NGC MS69 1908
    HAVE A GOOD DAY!! >>



    "hmmm looks like NGC has graded about a 4th of the alleged Memphis 47,000. >>

    "

    Im wouldnt really be surprised by this. PCGS may only get 10-20 percent of the coins to grade due to their stricter grading habits.
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    Hello Everyone,

    I have been out for awhile due to health issues for myself and my wife's battle with the big C....

    Can't believe this thread. It's too long to read it all but I just wanted to say I did get a little lucky with this error coin.

    Rec'd from the mint my 2 subscription ASE's and one was the Rev of 2007.
    Sent it in to PCGS last week and they E-M'ed me I am getting a MS-69 Rev of 2007 Label back in the snail mail.
    Wow, I've never had such luck with a coin. And lately I could use some luck.....

    What do you pundits really think I should do???? Keep it for price increases down the line or sell and pay my wife's Oncologist????

    Help out a real good person's need for good info, PLEASE.....
    DONNYJF
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    rgCoinGuyrgCoinGuy Posts: 7,478
    I also have one of each, I plan on keeping mine long term, but I have no short term bills that urgently need taken care of. It is really your option, there is no guarantee of it going up in the future, but there is also no guarantee it won't.
    imageQuid pro quo. Yes or no?
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    Thanks for advise. Think I need to read back a couple of days to see what they have been selling for.
    Also guess I'll have to go to the Bay and check that out also.
    Take Pics when it comes and consider my options.

    Wow, this is a real 1st for my coin collecting history.
    DONNYJF
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    KonaheadKonahead Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Well I spelled agree wrong here.

    I am just wondering if anybody has the stats regarding the amount of ER NGC 70's and 69's of these coins.

    Thanks >>



    NGC MS70 ER 3087
    NGC MS69 ER 3759

    BROWN LABEL
    NGC MS70 1980
    NGC MS69 1908
    HAVE A GOOD DAY!! >>



    and they came late to the dance!

    "hmmm looks like NGC has graded about a 4th of the alleged Memphis 47,000. >>

    "

    Im wouldnt really be surprised by this. PCGS may only get 10-20 percent of the coins to grade due to their stricter grading habits. >>

    PEACE! This is the first day of the rest of your life.

    Fred, Las Vegas, NV
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    << <i>Thanks for advise. Think I need to read back a couple of days to see what they have been selling for.
    Also guess I'll have to go to the Bay and check that out also.
    Take Pics when it comes and consider my options.

    Wow, this is a real 1st for my coin collecting history. >>



    If it is a non first strike coin, I would put the value at $500 - $550 if put up for auction. (At least in the last couple of days. They've sold as high as $700)
    Completed BS&T Deals

    halfnut X3, Dabigkahuna, Kaelasdad, LALASD4, harvey85422458,
    fivecents, Coll3ctor, cucamongacoin, Becoka
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    Wow, that's more than I thought so far...

    Plus mine is PCGS MS69, Rev of 2007 (Label)

    That kind f money for this fluke for me in even getting one would sure help pay my wife's Oncologist bill....
    DONNYJF
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    bestdaybestday Posts: 4,234 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Wow, that's more than I thought so far...

    Plus mine is PCGS MS69, Rev of 2007 (Label)

    That kind f money for this fluke for me in even getting one would sure help pay my wife's Oncologist bill.... >>



    May God watch over your wife and have His angels at her side
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    Then sell it to me in the slab I will give you a money order of 440. Up to you. Subtract ebay fees and its really a good deal pm me for more details.
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    Thanks for the fine offer. Please allow me time to consider what I really want to do.

    Should have it in hand Monday as PCGS has shipped it back to me Friday.
    DONNYJF
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    This chart depicts the mint production trend for the 08 W SAE, and its relationship to the mint estimate of the 07 reverse 'errors':

    image
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    08HALA2008HALA20 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Thanks for the fine offer. Please allow me time to consider what I really want to do.

    Should have it in hand Monday as PCGS has shipped it back to me Friday. >>



    If they shipped it to you on Friday then you may not see it until next Friday. (one week)

    That is how long it takes for me to get coins back.

    Joe

    My prayers also for you and your wife.
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    << <i>This chart depicts the mint production trend for the 08 W SAE, and its relationship to the mint estimate of the 07 reverse 'errors': >>

    Thanks for the very straighforward and beautifully presented production graph in relation to the 2008 w/ 07 reverse coins Wighty44.image
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    never seen this a 3 sided graph before but thanks sorta hard to read.
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    Thanks for the very straighforward and beautifully presented production graph in relation to the 2008 w/ 07 reverse coins Wighty44.image >>

    You are quite welcome! Hopefully this week I'll get updated NGC, PCGS, & ANACS grading stats [someone will have to help me with the PCGS data for these: 393058, 396411, 396437 (counts by MS grade)].

    I know NGC update their numbers each monday, but I'm not certain how often the other two TPGs update their data - ANACS still doesn't have the 2008 SAEs in their online DB...image
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    << <i>never seen this a 3 sided graph before but thanks sorta hard to read. >>

    They're quite common in my profession. Just read the total Production off the left axis, and the % off the right. I think in time you'll find it easier to use...imageimage
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    << <i>I think in time you'll find it easier to use... >>

    Wighty for the benefit of those that are not familiar in reading this graft. How do you interpret this or what is it saying to us in laymans terms? image We would love to hear your presentation/analysis. image
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    coinman420coinman420 Posts: 4,666


    << <i>

    << <i>I think in time you'll find it easier to use... >>

    Wighty for the benefit of those that are not familiar in reading this graft. How do you interpret this or what is it saying to us in laymans terms? image We would love to hear your presentation/analysis. image >>




    i think it is saying 15% of production was 07 reverse. correct me if i`m wrong.
    my ebay items BST transactions/swaps/giveaways with: Tiny, raycyca,mrpaseo, Dollar2007,Whatafind, Boom, packers88, DBSTrader2, 19Lyds, Mar327, pontiacinf, ElmerFusterpuck.
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    Wighty Thanks also for the graph. 15% is a lot of errors. And for me to have one is a unique.
    My wife's Oncologist will enjoy the humor in it when he gets his bill paid after I sell the coin.
    Waiting of course to get it in hand so I can at least enjoy the moment and take a picture of it
    before I ship it off to someone.......
    DONNYJF
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    << <i>Text15% is a lot of errors >>

    That is only based on the numbers minted so far and im sure the mint has not finished making these ASE for 2008 yet. Or am i wrong in this assumption? What do you guys think? image
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    hrlaserhrlaser Posts: 1,133 ✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Text15% is a lot of errors >>

    That is only based on the numbers minted so far and im sure the mint has not finished making these ASE for 2008 yet. Or am i wrong in this assumption? What do you guys think? image >>



    this is what this guy (me) thinks.. i think the Mint is going to crank out in excess of 500,000 to 600,000 2008-W ASEs this year, and that they may claim to have made 47,000 of the 08/07 errors, but nowhere near that number were actually shipped to customers.. hey, you asked..

    image
    "I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.."
    - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
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    My assessment of the 2008 W production chart is as follows:

    Presently the rate of 2008W SAEs is leveling off. However, that does not mean that the mint is approaching some production end-point. If you look at the 2001W-2007W SAE production data, you find the average production over those years is ~679K, with a low of 470K and a high of 801K. This history suggests the mint will still be producing 2008Ws in the future. How they decide when to stop is unknown to me.

    The percent of ’07 rev. errors is driven by the total 08W production number and a mint estimate of the ’07 rev. errors they made. Until they explicitly state they did not recover any of the errors, and offer a more definitive error count (if that’s possible), I suspect the actual number to be below 47K. That is why I began tracking the TPG counts. While it doesn’t completely answer the ‘magic question’, it does provide one piece of the puzzle… image
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    << <i>If you look at the 2001W-2007W SAE production data, >>



    Hmmmm....they only have been minted since 2006
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    pitbosspitboss Posts: 8,643 ✭✭✭
    I think the mint is going to step back for a while to sell all the returns they are getting before going back and minting more. I will be surprised if they mint 500,000.
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    1201reset1201reset Posts: 185 ✭✭



    << <i>
    I have been out for awhile due to health issues for myself and my wife's battle with the big C....

    Rec'd from the mint my 2 subscription ASE's and one was the Rev of 2007.
    >>



    DONNYJF
    My thoughts and prayers for you and your Wife, for a good outcome.


    Please post when your Sub. order was picked and shipped.

    TIA
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    BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,017 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Text15% is a lot of errors >>

    That is only based on the numbers minted so far and im sure the mint has not finished making these ASE for 2008 yet. Or am i wrong in this assumption? What do you guys think? image >>



    this is what this guy (me) thinks.. i think the Mint is going to crank out in excess of 500,000 to 600,000 2008-W ASEs this year, and that they may claim to have made 47,000 of the 08/07 errors, but nowhere near that number were actually shipped to customers.. hey, you asked..

    image >>



    How does anybody really know how many were shipped? Whether all 47K or less than 47K were shipped is pure speculation and nothing more. Unless one has solid proof that mint employees ravaged packages to recover them; its probly safe to assume that most got out. Almost a 4th of the 47K have already been graded by NGC or PCGs not counting ICG or ANACS. Whatever the final number of 2008s its a safe bet that these will be the lowest mintage.
    theknowitalltroll;
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    << <i> Hmmmm....they only have been minted since 2006 >>

    For the burnished MS types that is correct. Since there were only two years of historic MS W SAE data, I opted to group all the Ws together - I realize it was not the purist thing to do...image

    For comparison, just using the MS W SAE production data, the 2-year production 'average is ~558K vs. the total "W" SAE average of ~679k. This still suggests to me that the production end-point has not yet been reached.

    I do agree that the mint will most likely slow down its new production in the near future. They will shoot themselves in the foot if they do not quickly rectify the packaging & shipping problems many of us here have experienced...image
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    BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,017 ✭✭✭✭✭



    << <i>Then sell it to me in the slab I will give you a money order of 440. Up to you. Subtract ebay fees and its really a good deal pm me for more details. >>





    Considering the situation $540 would have been a more fair offer unless yours was a typo.
    theknowitalltroll;
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    hrlaserhrlaser Posts: 1,133 ✭✭


    << <i>
    How does anybody really know how many were shipped? Whether all 47K or less than 47K were shipped is pure speculation and nothing more. Unless one has solid proof that mint employees ravaged packages to recover them; its probly safe to assume that most got out. Almost a 4th of the 47K have already been graded by NGC or PCGs not counting ICG or ANACS. Whatever the final number of 2008s its a safe bet that these will be the lowest mintage. >>



    there's enough photographic evidence in this novel-length thread to prove the mint "ravaged packages".. how do you explain capsules with no coins in them, if you take the photographs at face value..

    no one knows how many got out.. my money is on a number much lower than 47,000, regardless of how many are in slabs.. how much lower?.. i don't know.. you don't know.. no one knows.. but i'd bet the Mint knows..

    the 47,000 number could be baloney to begin with.. no one knows yet.. since when is a press spokesman on truth serum?.. heard of Scott McClellen?..

    i'm just putting the pieces together and making what i think is an edjamakated conclusion based on the evidence, but i'm not a lawyer, nor an accountant, nor a helicopter pilot, and i don't play one on teevee..
    "I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.."
    - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
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    << <i>1) How does anybody really know how many were shipped? 2) Whether all 47K or less than 47K were shipped is pure speculation and nothing more. 3) Almost a 4th of the 47K have already been graded by NGC or PCGs not counting ICG or ANACS. >>

    1) They don't - a point that has been made in this topic a few times.

    2) You are correct

    3) My data shows 30.5% of the estimated 47K '07 rev. error coins have been graded, and it includes the known NGC, PCGS, & ANACS through 5/28/08. So far the known error coin count is 14,343. This will change as (if) more coins are graded. I believe it will be a virtually impossible task to determine (or estimate) the number of raw coins in existence without a definitive production count from the Mint.
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    hrlaserhrlaser Posts: 1,133 ✭✭


    << <i>Considering the situation $540 would have been a more fair offer unless yours was a typo. >>



    image in spades..
    "I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, I won't be laid a hand on.. I don't do these things to other people.. I require the same of them.."
    - John Wayne, "The Shootist" (1976.. his final film)..
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    My order info as follows: Filled @ 10:48:35AM on 3/24/08
    Order # 28530634-001
    Annual subscription item of 2 Z8F

    Hope that answers your question............

    Wife and I thank you all for the kind loving thoughts....
    She was a RN doing Hospice work when she came down for the second round of her battle with C...
    She had been clean 6 long years from the initial bout.....
    Fighting the big C is no cake walk by any means but at 53 having survived for 6 years and now another 2 years
    proves she's F'ing incredible...
    I'm also disabled with a severe back condition so it's kind of rough around here at times.
    Have 2 adopted wonderful kids at home also.
    Girl 15(Oh my God a teenager girl) and a 10yr old Son.

    Thanks again to all for your thoughts and prayers no matter how you do it, Thanks.........
    DONNYJF
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    BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,017 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>
    How does anybody really know how many were shipped? Whether all 47K or less than 47K were shipped is pure speculation and nothing more. Unless one has solid proof that mint employees ravaged packages to recover them; its probly safe to assume that most got out. Almost a 4th of the 47K have already been graded by NGC or PCGs not counting ICG or ANACS. Whatever the final number of 2008s its a safe bet that these will be the lowest mintage. >>



    there's enough photographic evidence in this novel-length thread to prove the mint "ravaged packages".. how do you explain capsules with no coins in them, if you take the photographs at face value..

    no one knows how many got out.. my money is on a number much lower than 47,000, regardless of how many are in slabs.. how much lower?.. i don't know.. you don't know.. no one knows.. but i'd bet the Mint knows..

    the 47,000 number could be baloney to begin with.. no one knows yet.. since when is a press spokesman on truth serum?.. heard of Scott McClellen?..

    i'm just putting the pieces together and making what i think is an edjamakated conclusion based on the evidence, but i'm not a lawyer, nor an accountant, nor a helicopter pilot, and i don't play one on teevee.. >>



    Does anyone think the ravaging of the packages was approved by the mint or were employees doing it on their own?
    theknowitalltroll;
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    halfhunterhalfhunter Posts: 2,770 ✭✭✭
    This still suggests to me that the production end-point has not yet been reached.

    I believe that the final sales figure will be determined by wheither or not folks are willing to pay the spread over bullion, or if these are like the Proofs where folks will buy at any price.

    Don't forget, about 75-100,000 of these will be going into the '08 Annual Dollar Sets also.

    Regards, John
    Need the following OBW rolls to complete my 46-64 Roosevelt roll set:
    1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
    Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
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    mach19mach19 Posts: 4,002 ✭✭


    << <i>This still suggests to me that the production end-point has not yet been reached.

    I believe that the final sales figure will be determined by wheither or not folks are willing to pay the spread over bullion, or if these are like the Proofs where folks will buy at any price.

    Don't forget, about 75-100,000 of these will be going into the '08 Annual Dollar Sets also.

    Regards, John >>




    That's a good point. I think they will be out in July ?
    TIN SOLDIERS & NIXON COMING image
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    SUMORADASUMORADA Posts: 4,797
    Does anyone think the ravaging of the packages was approved by the mint or were employees doing it on their own?

    Good question..........IMO There is no way the mint would authorize the "shippers" to weed out anything, just think of the security nightmare this would cause......
    Now ...do I think its possible that they "riffled" some boxes on there own.............yes it is possible.......these folks are like any other groups of people, there are alot of great folks just trying to earn a living, and there are some bad apples.............
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    rpcoletranerpcoletrane Posts: 718 ✭✭
    That could be true! I never thought about that. I bet that explains why some folks got empty capsules on a few occasions, and the one poor guy that got all empty boxes.
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    mach19mach19 Posts: 4,002 ✭✭


    << <i>That could be true! I never thought about that. I bet that explains why some folks got empty capsules on a few occasions, and the one poor guy that got all empty boxes. >>




    That would be Eric, The gentleman above you.



    Have a good one!!!~David
    TIN SOLDIERS & NIXON COMING image
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    bestdaybestday Posts: 4,234 ✭✭✭✭
    Down to 251 auctions on the bay ,with another 60 ending tonight..time to buy ??image
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    SaamSaam Posts: 476 ✭✭✭
    Has anybody placed an order from the mint after 05/06/08 that a 2008 ASE was found with the '07 reverse?
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    How do you expect these people to be going through these packages? I am sure the fulfillment center is under very tight security. the mint here in San Francisco is near my Union hall and that place has more fences and security and cameras than some prisons i have seen.
    Why do you have to 'put your two cents in'... but it's only a 'penny for your thoughts'? Where's that extra penny going to?
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    rgCoinGuyrgCoinGuy Posts: 7,478
    3200 image
    imageQuid pro quo. Yes or no?

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