@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
Couldn't have said it any better myself! 😂🤣
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Unfortunately it's unlikely to have any impact on their number of posts or their tiresome length!🙄
Received my sealed box of 10 today. Well packaged in a sturdy box with 3" wide packing tape. Paid $1,045.95 sold last week to a board member for $1600. My gut tells me there's a 230 in there. Good luck to the buyer who will be opening the box.
My second medal came today no privy. This was ordered day HHL was removed. Curiously this one came in the regular brown cardboard box instead of the white poly bubble mailer the first one came in.
Nice to see a couple more privys posted! I have one out for delivery today.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Joking aside I like the clean look of the non-privy. Had I gotten lucky I would have happily cashed out— seeing a realized sale on eBay for a graded 70 at $13k 😬 🥶 though majority ranging in the $3-8k (ungraded/graded)
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
Absolutely your prerogative, but the jury is still out on these. Apparently, over the weekend 2024 Morgan and Peace proofs in OGP were offered on TV for below issue price. Those were barely released a month ago, and one can only wonder what the actual bid is if you can buy them from TV for $90 each.
I get that's not this. OTOH, tens of thousands of them were not sold as part of a national lottery, so TBD where these are going to settle. If you don't value my opinion because it has not proven to be correct 6 days after release, while people are still chasing them at 7:30 a.m. every morning, maybe you should hold off a few weeks before declaring I don't know what I'm talking about. Because you very well might end up eating your words, unnecessarily, while I'm already out on a limb.
As I said before, I'll be the first to admit if I turn out to be wrong, and I'm not going to be holding out for years before calling it. But give it a month or two, as I said all along, for returns to hit the Mint, and for dealers to liquidate their stock.
At least we now know where these are ending up. Congratulations to whoever thinks that piece of paper is worth thousands of dollars, just because there are only 230 of them. Super shout out to LCR for being able to cash in, and to the Mint for making it possible for them to do so.
Not at my expense, but at the expense of whoever is buying them. Whatever the medal ends up being worth, I promise you that signed COA will be worth next to nothing in the future.
I'll gladly sign anything for anyone on a 1 of 1 basis for a tiny fraction of that, and I'm only slightly less famous and noteworthy than the Mint director, whose name many collectors do know, and who could not be picked out of a lineup any more easily than I could be. My signature will likely be worth exactly what hers is worth in the future, but my limited edition will be of 1, rather than 230. Much more rare. Please PM me for details.
I just received my medal, and I'm happy to have received one with the privy mark (standard COA). I'm not a business or a bulk purchaser by the way. It came in the bubble mailer that some folks also mentioned.
@Josepele said:
I got one! It came in on Friday. Was not expecting to get lucky.
Wow!!!!!
Congrats!!!
Did u only order one?
I only ordered one. I have now signed up for alerts from the mint if more become available!!!
Congratulations!!! But, I PROMISE you, you will not be getting another one if you buy more in response to alert if/when more become available. Those will have been stripped of what you received. Unless you return yours.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
Couldn't have said it any better myself! 😂🤣
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Unfortunately it's unlikely to have any impact on their number of posts or their tiresome length!🙄
True. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
And to post. And everyone has the ability to Ignore posts from anyone if the content or length is not worth anything. So, there is nothing "unfortunate" about anything.
Everyone gets to play their own game here. Including you as well as me. Even if you find that to be "unfortunate."
@GiveMeProof said:
214, 215, 216, 218 and 219. LCR did pretty good. COA #'s consecutive. Hmmmmmmmmm.
This indicates to me they were not distributed randomly.
Clearly not the signed COAs. The privys are another matter, since people ARE reporting receiving them, and since dealers were already guaranteed to receive them since they were allowed to buy in quantity.
Whether or not they received more than 2.4 per 100, while the rest of us received less, is something we will never know for sure. Multiple signed COAs in number order sure looks terrible for the Mint, regardless of the distribution of the medals.
Shame on them. But it only becomes a windfall if people are foolish enough to buy into the hype and pay stupid money for a piece of paper signed by a political appointee. Not a rock star. A political appointee running a federal agency.
@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
Maybe that there is no reason to go to the trouble of posting that you don't value trash in a parking lot? Unless you think that would be of interest to someone. Given that you are not a highly regarded arbiter of value, the odds are that fewer people care about whose opinion you value than care about what I think about any given modern Mint release.
But I'll let @jmlanzaf speak for himself. That would be my point, since I also pointed out that I am not compensated, by you or anyone else, for the opinions I express here.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
Maybe that there is no reason to go to the trouble of posting that you don't value trash in a parking lot? Unless you think that would be of interest to someone. Given that you are not a highly regarded arbiter of value, the odds are that fewer people care about whose opinion you value than care about what I think about any given modern Mint release.
But I'll let @jmlanzaf speak for himself. That would be my point, since I also pointed out that I am not compensated, by you or anyone else, for the opinions I express here.
No one on this board is compensated for their opinions. You are not unique. You feel offended that people do not value your oversight and continue to fail recognizing that people actually enjoy these and are comfortable with the price and most importantly will be holding them?
Learn from this vs digging a bigger hole.
Best function on this forum is the ignore option. People are free to block my comments and if they feel your “free” opinion does not warrant their time they should do the same.
@GiveMeProof said:
214, 215, 216, 218 and 219. LCR did pretty good. COA #'s consecutive. Hmmmmmmmmm.
This indicates to me they were not distributed randomly.
Clearly not the signed COAs. The privys are another matter, since people ARE reporting receiving them, and since dealers were already guaranteed to receive them since they were allowed to buy in quantity.
Whether or not they received more than 2.4 per 100, while the rest of us received less, is something we will never know for sure. Multiple signed COAs in number order sure looks terrible for the Mint, regardless of the distribution of the medals.
Shame on them. But it only becomes a windfall if people are foolish enough to buy into the hype and pay stupid money for a piece of paper signed by a political appointee. Not a rock star. A political appointee running a federal agency.
I wouldn't pay anything for a rock star's signature either - but that's just me. Agree w your sentiment.
@HalfDime said:
I didn't know and don't think this has been posted, but the one I got has medal rotation instead of flipping it over to see the reverse.
You thinking him selling his for a profit almost instantly supports your stance on these? I assume if he couldn’t sell it for a profit that would also support your stance? So basically… whatever happens, you think you’re right?
@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
Maybe that there is no reason to go to the trouble of posting that you don't value trash in a parking lot? Unless you think that would be of interest to someone. Given that you are not a highly regarded arbiter of value, the odds are that fewer people care about whose opinion you value than care about what I think about any given modern Mint release.
But I'll let @jmlanzaf speak for himself. That would be my point, since I also pointed out that I am not compensated, by you or anyone else, for the opinions I express here.
No one on this board is compensated for their opinions. You are not unique. You feel offended that people do not value your oversight and continue to fail recognizing that people actually enjoy these and are comfortable with the price and most importantly will be holding them?
Learn from this vs digging a bigger hole.
Best function on this forum is the ignore option. People are free to block my comments and if they feel your “free” opinion does not warrant their time they should do the same.
I am exactly the opposite of offended that anyone doesn't care what I think.
What does offend me is the notion that some rando who is not a moderator is trying to bully me into not posting, whatever, whenever, and however long I want, as long as I am staying on topic and they have the option to Ignore anything they don't like. And to announce that to the world in an effort to get others to Ignore me. As though I get some sort of notification whenever I am being Ignored, or would care about that.
I post for myself, and for anyone else who is interested. Those who are not interested do not offend me. In fact, I have no reason to know about them, unless they tell me.
And, even then, I don't care about them. Not offended. Indifferent. Thanks for the lesson. I'll take it under advisement. Or, I'll simply ignore it and keep digging. 🤣
@Cranium_Basher73 said:
Somebody is definitely having a internal discussion about spending that kind of money.
Highly doubt it, given that multiples are available at half that price from a well known dealer. Most likely just a little eBay shilling, in an effort to induce someone into a little FOMO.
And, as I have said before, the fact that someone would value a limited edition signature from an obscure government bureaucrat more than a limited edition privy marked medal is beyond baffling to me.
I think it would be cool to get the signed COA, but she liberally signs COAs at every show for anyone who wants one, as many as they want. So, while this particular COA is a 1 of 230, she'll sign a 1 of 1 of anything anyone puts in her hand at a show.
So I really don't see any value at all, let alone thousands of dollars.
???? Where are 140 and 1500 coming from? The privys are worth far more than $1500, and I think the $104 might me aggressive in a few weeks.
Regardless of what I think, where are you getting these numbers from? Because that will determine whether or not $18K is reasonable.
I happen to think it's bonkers, because I think, assuming the box has not been tampered with, that it's highly likely it contains a single privy marked medal worth around $4K, and 49 regular medals worth $104 each, and likely to be worth less once this game concludes.
People are still excited because they are sold out at the Mint, so they are selling at a premium, even without a privy. I am still convinced they will be readily available from the Mint in the next few weeks, absent privy marks. If that happens it will kill the secondary market value of the non-privys, so I'd never pay a premium to $104 for non-privys just to have a shot at a privy.
I therefore would not pay more than $4,000 + 49*104, or $9,096 for the box. Tops, because there is small chance it will be worth half that, and an equally tiny chance it might be worth an extra $4K if it has 2 privys in it.
I think the seller is being a pig, because they already won by scoring a box of 50 for $5200. They should either take the double or open the box, maybe do a little better by having the privy graded, and then sell the rest of the box for whatever it will bear. Waiting for a sucker at $18K could very well end up backfiring.
$18K is stupid, which is why it is sitting unsold. People dumb enough to be enticed do not actually have the $18K to indulge.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
@jwitten said:
You thinking him selling his for a profit almost instantly supports your stance on these? I assume if he couldn’t sell it for a profit that would also support your stance? So basically… whatever happens, you think you’re right?
@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
I sure do. It supports my theory that thousands of these sold, not because people were excited to get their hands on 1 of only 73,206 for $104, but because they wanted to play the lottery.
If true, good for @WQuarterFreddie. He made a few bucks on his gamble. But what he was able to get for it immediately was never the point. The fact that he only bought it for the free shot at the lottery is.
With 73K out there, if @WQuarterFreddie is not alone, lots of them will be coming to market, or returned to the Mint, in the next few weeks. Let's see what happens to the non-privy price if that happens.
And, no, I'm not right no matter what happens. If these become available in OGP for less than $104 in the next month or two, I will have turned out to be right. If not, I will have been wrong.
TBD, but I'm sticking to what I thought initially -- that lots will come back to the Mint, after being searched for winning tickets, and that will kill the secondary market for them. They will then be easily available, just like they were ALL day on the 15th, and right up until noon on the 16th.
Then they got cleaned out by people like @WQuarterFreddie looking for score. Those are all going to be going somewhere, and it won't be @WQuarterFreddie's collection, or the collection of any of the buyers.
I guess a potential wild card will be if a number of sealed boxes of 50 are just held off the market indefinitely if people cannot get 418K for them, and decide to wait, rather than taking what they can get now. Which I think would be a huge mistake, since interest in sealed boxes will wane as time goes on, and as the potential for mischief with sealed boxes increases as time goes on.
If there is organic demand for 73K tribute medals depicting the first silver dollar, at $104 a pop, I will be wrong.
If I do turn out to be right, I just hope people come back to acknowledge it with the same enthusiasm they are jumping the gun to give me a hard time with now.
The fact that people are paying over mint price currently for open box coins that they know are not privy marked actually does NOT support your theory that people bought all these to play the lottery. They would be essentially paying over ticket price for an already scratched off ticket that’s not a winner. I don’t see how I’m the world that would support your theory.
@jwitten said:
You thinking him selling his for a profit almost instantly supports your stance on these? I assume if he couldn’t sell it for a profit that would also support your stance? So basically… whatever happens, you think you’re right?
@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
I sure do. It supports my theory that thousands of these sold, not because people were excited to get their hands on 1 of only 73,206 for $104, but because they wanted to play the lottery.
If true, good for @WQuarterFreddie. He made a few bucks on his gamble. But what he was able to get for it immediately was never the point. The fact that he only bought it for the free shot at the lottery is.
With 73K out there, if @WQuarterFreddie is not alone, lots of them will be coming to market, or returned to the Mint, in the next few weeks. Let's see what happens to the non-privy price if that happens.
And, no, I'm not right no matter what happens. If these become available in OGP for less than $104 in the next month or two, I will have turned out to be right. If not, I will have been wrong.
TBD, but I'm sticking to what I thought initially -- that lots will come back to the Mint, after being searched for winning tickets, and that will kill the secondary market for them. They will then be easily available, just like they were ALL day on the 15th, and right up until noon on the 16th. Then they got cleaned out by people like @WQuarterFreddie looking for score. Those are all going to be going somewhere, and it won't be @WQuarterFreddie's collection, or the collection of any of the buyers.
If there is organic demand for 73K tribute medals depicting the first silver dollar, at $104 a pop, I will be wrong.
If I do turn out to be right, I just hope people come back to acknowledge it with the same enthusiasm they are jumping the gun to give me a hard time with now.
???? Where are 140 and 1500 coming from? The privys are worth far more than $1500, and I think the $104 might me aggressive in a few weeks.
Regardless of what I think, where are you getting these numbers from? Because that will determine whether or not $18K is reasonable.
use whatever numbers you think are suitable
and there is the unsaid possibility of a signed cert, but using such a formula would provide a floor where the chances of a signature could be factored in later. (or you could just make it a 3 variable problem)
@jwitten said:
The fact that people are paying over mint price currently for open box coins that they know are not privy marked actually does NOT support your theory that people bought all these to play the lottery. They would be essentially paying over ticket price for an already scratched off ticket that’s not a winner. I don’t see how I’m the world that would support your theory.
@jwitten said:
You thinking him selling his for a profit almost instantly supports your stance on these? I assume if he couldn’t sell it for a profit that would also support your stance? So basically… whatever happens, you think you’re right?
@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
I sure do. It supports my theory that thousands of these sold, not because people were excited to get their hands on 1 of only 73,206 for $104, but because they wanted to play the lottery.
If true, good for @WQuarterFreddie. He made a few bucks on his gamble. But what he was able to get for it immediately was never the point. The fact that he only bought it for the free shot at the lottery is.
With 73K out there, if @WQuarterFreddie is not alone, lots of them will be coming to market, or returned to the Mint, in the next few weeks. Let's see what happens to the non-privy price if that happens.
And, no, I'm not right no matter what happens. If these become available in OGP for less than $104 in the next month or two, I will have turned out to be right. If not, I will have been wrong.
TBD, but I'm sticking to what I thought initially -- that lots will come back to the Mint, after being searched for winning tickets, and that will kill the secondary market for them. They will then be easily available, just like they were ALL day on the 15th, and right up until noon on the 16th. Then they got cleaned out by people like @WQuarterFreddie looking for score. Those are all going to be going somewhere, and it won't be @WQuarterFreddie's collection, or the collection of any of the buyers.
If there is organic demand for 73K tribute medals depicting the first silver dollar, at $104 a pop, I will be wrong.
If I do turn out to be right, I just hope people come back to acknowledge it with the same enthusiasm they are jumping the gun to give me a hard time with now.
Yes. We are talking a bit past each other right now. Or you missed a nugget in my earlier post.
My theory is that people are paying a premium now because they are sold out at the Mint. They think they will be hard to get. They won't be. But people buying non-privys for more than $104 are not buying a scratched off lottery ticket. They think they are buying, in the words of the great Mike Mezack, a sold out, limited edition Mint product.
The thing is, this is different from EVERY other previous Mint sell out, due to the lottery ticket. I think a TON of non-privys are going to hit the market in the next few weeks. And be returned to the Mint.
People will get excited when they start popping up at 7:30 a.m. when returns start coming in. And then wonder what is going on when they never go Unavailable. If true, that is going to change everything, and people paying up now for non-privys are going to be sorry. TBD.
???? Where are 140 and 1500 coming from? The privys are worth far more than $1500, and I think the $104 might me aggressive in a few weeks.
Regardless of what I think, where are you getting these numbers from? Because that will determine whether or not $18K is reasonable.
use whatever numbers you think are suitable
and there is the unsaid possibility of a signed cert, but using such a formula would provide a floor where the chances of a signature could be factored in later. (or you could just make it a 3 variable problem)
Fair enough. Assuming you place a high value on a signed COA. I don't. Moreover, based on what we know now about how they were distributed, the odds of receiving one are significantly less than the 0.3% that it would be if distribution was fair and wide. I therefore do not think that possibility is worth modeling.
I used the numbers I think are suitable. If I was interested in giving the seller a win, and taking a shot at their box, I'd give them a double over what they paid, given the reasonable likelihood of receiving a single winner in a box of 50.
If they want to be a pig and go for the home run, they deserve to get stuck with their box. Because, in this world, with the market for privy coins today, a single privy and 49 regular medals are not worth anything close to $18K.
And the odds are extremely high that that's exactly what's in the box. So it's not really much of a mystery box, based on the law of large numbers, and 50 tickets in the box, with each one having a 2.4% chance of being a winner.
There is really no upside for the buyer to give the seller a premium to $9K I calculated on the remote possibility of a second privy, which would STILL not represent fair value for the box. You'd need 3 privys in the box to break even at $18K, at $4K each for the privys and $125 each for the others.
And, I don't even think the others will be worth $125 in a few weeks, so I certainly would not give that to anyone, 49 times, for a shot at a privy. If I wanted a privy, I'd just bid $4K for a privy and wait for someone to hit the bid.
The seller's win should be the $9K they would be getting on their $5200 score. No more, no less, based on $4K for the privy and being able to have the 49 others taken off their hands at cost. if someone uses different numbers and comes up with a slightly higher number, good for them. But $18K is just nuts.
Has there ever been a mint release whereby most of the value of the coin is connected to the COA it shipped with or some other outside document? It seems that piece of paper alone is worth around $10-$12K under current pricing which may or may not hold. (In regard to the 230 coins that include the special COA).
@MsMorrisine said:
there have been past releases with signed coa
someone else will have to fill in the details, but i don't recall anything this wide
I know a lot of coins ship with a COA from the mint, but most of the time they aren't that important and are even discarded if the coin is sent in for grading. In this case, it seems so much value is tied to that COA itself.
Comments
The mint has staked the deck against you and still you all swarm their offerings likes flies on.
I only ordered one. I have now signed up for alerts from the mint if more become available!!!
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
Couldn't have said it any better myself! 😂🤣
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Unfortunately it's unlikely to have any impact on their number of posts or their tiresome length!🙄
Received my sealed box of 10 today. Well packaged in a sturdy box with 3" wide packing tape. Paid $1,045.95 sold last week to a board member for $1600. My gut tells me there's a 230 in there. Good luck to the buyer who will be opening the box.
This indicates to me they were not distributed randomly.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Awesome, congrats!! That's great. Enjoy it!
Got lucky.
My second medal came today no privy. This was ordered day HHL was removed. Curiously this one came in the regular brown cardboard box instead of the white poly bubble mailer the first one came in.
Nice to see a couple more privys posted! I have one out for delivery today.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
In todays mail
No privy mark (thus no signed COA either).
But a nice looking token
INYNWHWeTrust-TexasNationals,ajaan,blu62vette
coinJP, Outhaul ,illini420,MICHAELDIXON, Fade to Black,epcjimi1,19Lyds,SNMAN,JerseyJoe, bigjpst, DMWJR , lordmarcovan, Weiss,Mfriday4962,UtahCoin,Downtown1974,pitboss,RichieURich,Bullsitter,JDsCoins,toyz4geo,jshaulis, mustanggt, SNMAN, MWallace, ms71
No stuff Sherlock. Not the first time either and in bigger quantities before.
Anyway good luck to all the RANDOM winners. Sell if you want the money or keep if you like the medal.
Joking aside I like the clean look of the non-privy. Had I gotten lucky I would have happily cashed out— seeing a realized sale on eBay for a graded 70 at $13k 😬 🥶 though majority ranging in the $3-8k (ungraded/graded)
US$19,000 asking for the Privy one: https://www.ebay.com/itm/315871557053
His opinion is free...
Absolutely your prerogative, but the jury is still out on these. Apparently, over the weekend 2024 Morgan and Peace proofs in OGP were offered on TV for below issue price. Those were barely released a month ago, and one can only wonder what the actual bid is if you can buy them from TV for $90 each.
I get that's not this. OTOH, tens of thousands of them were not sold as part of a national lottery, so TBD where these are going to settle. If you don't value my opinion because it has not proven to be correct 6 days after release, while people are still chasing them at 7:30 a.m. every morning, maybe you should hold off a few weeks before declaring I don't know what I'm talking about. Because you very well might end up eating your words, unnecessarily, while I'm already out on a limb.
As I said before, I'll be the first to admit if I turn out to be wrong, and I'm not going to be holding out for years before calling it. But give it a month or two, as I said all along, for returns to hit the Mint, and for dealers to liquidate their stock.
At least we now know where these are ending up. Congratulations to whoever thinks that piece of paper is worth thousands of dollars, just because there are only 230 of them. Super shout out to LCR for being able to cash in, and to the Mint for making it possible for them to do so.
Not at my expense, but at the expense of whoever is buying them. Whatever the medal ends up being worth, I promise you that signed COA will be worth next to nothing in the future.
I'll gladly sign anything for anyone on a 1 of 1 basis for a tiny fraction of that, and I'm only slightly less famous and noteworthy than the Mint director, whose name many collectors do know, and who could not be picked out of a lineup any more easily than I could be. My signature will likely be worth exactly what hers is worth in the future, but my limited edition will be of 1, rather than 230. Much more rare. Please PM me for details.
I just received my medal, and I'm happy to have received one with the privy mark (standard COA). I'm not a business or a bulk purchaser by the way. It came in the bubble mailer that some folks also mentioned.
Will CAC grade those? OR PCGS and NGC for now?
Congratulations!!! But, I PROMISE you, you will not be getting another one if you buy more in response to alert if/when more become available. Those will have been stripped of what you received. Unless you return yours.
True. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
And to post. And everyone has the ability to Ignore posts from anyone if the content or length is not worth anything. So, there is nothing "unfortunate" about anything.
Everyone gets to play their own game here. Including you as well as me. Even if you find that to be "unfortunate."
Clearly not the signed COAs. The privys are another matter, since people ARE reporting receiving them, and since dealers were already guaranteed to receive them since they were allowed to buy in quantity.
Whether or not they received more than 2.4 per 100, while the rest of us received less, is something we will never know for sure. Multiple signed COAs in number order sure looks terrible for the Mint, regardless of the distribution of the medals.
Shame on them. But it only becomes a windfall if people are foolish enough to buy into the hype and pay stupid money for a piece of paper signed by a political appointee. Not a rock star. A political appointee running a federal agency.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
in this situations and those like it the notify me is totally useless
Some marketplace stats after the 1st Week after release.
2 total privy sales, AVG Clearing Price: $3,500.00 USD, Current Spread $5,000.00 ASK, $3,500.00 Bid.
https://www.collectpure.com/marketplace/product/230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-230-privy-mark-24yh0082
356 total non-privy sales, AVG Clearing Price $175.00, Current Spread $197 ASK, $175 Bid.
https://www.collectpure.com/marketplace/product/230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-24yh0081
No signed privy sales. Looks like most have gone to eBay or larger dealers, haven't seen any individuals with these as of yet.
CACG "First Delivery" holders:
~ w/o privy:
Link: https://www.ebay.com/itm/146053595664
~ and, w/ privy:
Link: https://www.ebay.com/itm/146111977155
Note - This is NOT my listing. Just posted 'images/links' to answer the question.
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
Maybe that there is no reason to go to the trouble of posting that you don't value trash in a parking lot? Unless you think that would be of interest to someone. Given that you are not a highly regarded arbiter of value, the odds are that fewer people care about whose opinion you value than care about what I think about any given modern Mint release.
But I'll let @jmlanzaf speak for himself. That would be my point, since I also pointed out that I am not compensated, by you or anyone else, for the opinions I express here.
No one on this board is compensated for their opinions. You are not unique. You feel offended that people do not value your oversight and continue to fail recognizing that people actually enjoy these and are comfortable with the price and most importantly will be holding them?
Learn from this vs digging a bigger hole.
Best function on this forum is the ignore option. People are free to block my comments and if they feel your “free” opinion does not warrant their time they should do the same.
My single medal arrived today. Its exactly as expected. No mark.
Love the look - even really like the ogp & coa.
1 & done it seems for me. Very happy w it. Looks better than i anticipated in all respects.
More privey marked amongst members here than i had expected. Congrats to the lottery winners!
I wouldn't pay anything for a rock star's signature either - but that's just me. Agree w your sentiment.
Who's gonna play this lottery?
Basically $360 per medal.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
Somebody is definitely having a internal discussion about spending that kind of money.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
140x + 1500y =18000
y = 0.024x
solve for x and y
and we can over constrain with x + y = 50
The portrait relief and the hair detail are very well done.
The execution is surprisingly good viewed in hand, better than expected.
I would expect more of this from the Mint. We may not see the price and value deflation on this one, another surprise.
I didn't know and don't think this has been posted, but the one I got has medal rotation instead of flipping it over to see the reverse.
It IS a medal after all 😉
You thinking him selling his for a profit almost instantly supports your stance on these? I assume if he couldn’t sell it for a profit that would also support your stance? So basically… whatever happens, you think you’re right?
I am exactly the opposite of offended that anyone doesn't care what I think.
What does offend me is the notion that some rando who is not a moderator is trying to bully me into not posting, whatever, whenever, and however long I want, as long as I am staying on topic and they have the option to Ignore anything they don't like. And to announce that to the world in an effort to get others to Ignore me. As though I get some sort of notification whenever I am being Ignored, or would care about that.
I post for myself, and for anyone else who is interested. Those who are not interested do not offend me. In fact, I have no reason to know about them, unless they tell me.
And, even then, I don't care about them. Not offended. Indifferent. Thanks for the lesson. I'll take it under advisement. Or, I'll simply ignore it and keep digging. 🤣
Highly doubt it, given that multiples are available at half that price from a well known dealer. Most likely just a little eBay shilling, in an effort to induce someone into a little FOMO.
And, as I have said before, the fact that someone would value a limited edition signature from an obscure government bureaucrat more than a limited edition privy marked medal is beyond baffling to me.
I think it would be cool to get the signed COA, but she liberally signs COAs at every show for anyone who wants one, as many as they want. So, while this particular COA is a 1 of 230, she'll sign a 1 of 1 of anything anyone puts in her hand at a show.
So I really don't see any value at all, let alone thousands of dollars.
???? Where are 140 and 1500 coming from? The privys are worth far more than $1500, and I think the $104 might me aggressive in a few weeks.
Regardless of what I think, where are you getting these numbers from? Because that will determine whether or not $18K is reasonable.
I happen to think it's bonkers, because I think, assuming the box has not been tampered with, that it's highly likely it contains a single privy marked medal worth around $4K, and 49 regular medals worth $104 each, and likely to be worth less once this game concludes.
People are still excited because they are sold out at the Mint, so they are selling at a premium, even without a privy. I am still convinced they will be readily available from the Mint in the next few weeks, absent privy marks. If that happens it will kill the secondary market value of the non-privys, so I'd never pay a premium to $104 for non-privys just to have a shot at a privy.
I therefore would not pay more than $4,000 + 49*104, or $9,096 for the box. Tops, because there is small chance it will be worth half that, and an equally tiny chance it might be worth an extra $4K if it has 2 privys in it.
I think the seller is being a pig, because they already won by scoring a box of 50 for $5200. They should either take the double or open the box, maybe do a little better by having the privy graded, and then sell the rest of the box for whatever it will bear. Waiting for a sucker at $18K could very well end up backfiring.
$18K is stupid, which is why it is sitting unsold. People dumb enough to be enticed do not actually have the $18K to indulge.
You get what you pay for
I sure do. It supports my theory that thousands of these sold, not because people were excited to get their hands on 1 of only 73,206 for $104, but because they wanted to play the lottery.
If true, good for @WQuarterFreddie. He made a few bucks on his gamble. But what he was able to get for it immediately was never the point. The fact that he only bought it for the free shot at the lottery is.
With 73K out there, if @WQuarterFreddie is not alone, lots of them will be coming to market, or returned to the Mint, in the next few weeks. Let's see what happens to the non-privy price if that happens.
And, no, I'm not right no matter what happens. If these become available in OGP for less than $104 in the next month or two, I will have turned out to be right. If not, I will have been wrong.
TBD, but I'm sticking to what I thought initially -- that lots will come back to the Mint, after being searched for winning tickets, and that will kill the secondary market for them. They will then be easily available, just like they were ALL day on the 15th, and right up until noon on the 16th.
Then they got cleaned out by people like @WQuarterFreddie looking for score. Those are all going to be going somewhere, and it won't be @WQuarterFreddie's collection, or the collection of any of the buyers.
I guess a potential wild card will be if a number of sealed boxes of 50 are just held off the market indefinitely if people cannot get 418K for them, and decide to wait, rather than taking what they can get now. Which I think would be a huge mistake, since interest in sealed boxes will wane as time goes on, and as the potential for mischief with sealed boxes increases as time goes on.
If there is organic demand for 73K tribute medals depicting the first silver dollar, at $104 a pop, I will be wrong.
If I do turn out to be right, I just hope people come back to acknowledge it with the same enthusiasm they are jumping the gun to give me a hard time with now.
The fact that people are paying over mint price currently for open box coins that they know are not privy marked actually does NOT support your theory that people bought all these to play the lottery. They would be essentially paying over ticket price for an already scratched off ticket that’s not a winner. I don’t see how I’m the world that would support your theory.
use whatever numbers you think are suitable
and there is the unsaid possibility of a signed cert, but using such a formula would provide a floor where the chances of a signature could be factored in later. (or you could just make it a 3 variable problem)
Yes. We are talking a bit past each other right now. Or you missed a nugget in my earlier post.
My theory is that people are paying a premium now because they are sold out at the Mint. They think they will be hard to get. They won't be. But people buying non-privys for more than $104 are not buying a scratched off lottery ticket. They think they are buying, in the words of the great Mike Mezack, a sold out, limited edition Mint product.
The thing is, this is different from EVERY other previous Mint sell out, due to the lottery ticket. I think a TON of non-privys are going to hit the market in the next few weeks. And be returned to the Mint.
People will get excited when they start popping up at 7:30 a.m. when returns start coming in. And then wonder what is going on when they never go Unavailable. If true, that is going to change everything, and people paying up now for non-privys are going to be sorry. TBD.
Fair enough. Assuming you place a high value on a signed COA. I don't. Moreover, based on what we know now about how they were distributed, the odds of receiving one are significantly less than the 0.3% that it would be if distribution was fair and wide. I therefore do not think that possibility is worth modeling.
I used the numbers I think are suitable. If I was interested in giving the seller a win, and taking a shot at their box, I'd give them a double over what they paid, given the reasonable likelihood of receiving a single winner in a box of 50.
If they want to be a pig and go for the home run, they deserve to get stuck with their box. Because, in this world, with the market for privy coins today, a single privy and 49 regular medals are not worth anything close to $18K.
And the odds are extremely high that that's exactly what's in the box. So it's not really much of a mystery box, based on the law of large numbers, and 50 tickets in the box, with each one having a 2.4% chance of being a winner.
There is really no upside for the buyer to give the seller a premium to $9K I calculated on the remote possibility of a second privy, which would STILL not represent fair value for the box. You'd need 3 privys in the box to break even at $18K, at $4K each for the privys and $125 each for the others.
And, I don't even think the others will be worth $125 in a few weeks, so I certainly would not give that to anyone, 49 times, for a shot at a privy. If I wanted a privy, I'd just bid $4K for a privy and wait for someone to hit the bid.
The seller's win should be the $9K they would be getting on their $5200 score. No more, no less, based on $4K for the privy and being able to have the 49 others taken off their hands at cost. if someone uses different numbers and comes up with a slightly higher number, good for them. But $18K is just nuts.
Has there ever been a mint release whereby most of the value of the coin is connected to the COA it shipped with or some other outside document? It seems that piece of paper alone is worth around $10-$12K under current pricing which may or may not hold. (In regard to the 230 coins that include the special COA).
there have been past releases with signed coa
someone else will have to fill in the details, but i don't recall anything this wide
I know a lot of coins ship with a COA from the mint, but most of the time they aren't that important and are even discarded if the coin is sent in for grading. In this case, it seems so much value is tied to that COA itself.