@Catbert said: @jmlanzaf Occam's razor indicates that stupid is as stupid does. He could have stated that he was revisiting the thread one year later, but he didn't and his prior behavior indicates cluelessness.
So what biz is it of yours lol? Do you have anything original beside trashing people.
Other collectible markets are off their 2022 highs. Many seem to be in a holding pattern, if not down, while looking to take a direction (the recent stock market though has taken some pretty heavy daily swings this last month)
@Cuprinkor said:
I'm in agreement with Cougar1978's comment as an online seller.
I'll leave it at that
Everyone wants to pay less.
Had a guy yesterday looking at a $99 comic. I sent him an offer at $92. He offered $80. I declined. He said, you offered me $92, how about $85? I said, how about $92? He said, okay.
No matter what the number is, some people will always counter lower.
I had a guy last week offer me $100 on a $150 item. I declined. He messaged me and asked if I'd go lower. I said, not now. It's been listed for 2 hours and it's really the lowest price on ebay. He paid full price... after he offered me 2/3 of the ask!!! He obviously had no problem with the price, he just wanted to pay (much) less if he could.
Many of them counter lower bc they don’t know how to price the material. Once one becomes aware of their modus operx a strategy can be developed for them. Had a big spender like that but I just padded price accordingly giving him his 30 pct discount / still making the margin I wanted. It’s called negotiation.
I only bid on Seated material so my information is of limited value. On Great Collections I have not had a winning bid since early May. In fact, I have speculated before that someone like the Stephenville group has been bidding again because many coins go for far above any price references of any kind. I have had 1 win on Heritage auctions but will also mention that there have been very few circulated Seated coin in the Heritage Tuesday auctions. I have Seated quarters. for instance, in my tracking list and have gone entire months without a single notification. Finally, I have been lucky to find 4 coins that I have on my "get if at all possible list", but all of them were on dealer sites. James
Bullion has kept a coin shop afloat for the past year. I won’t speculate as to why but in my ‘hood, collectors aren’t shopping near as much as the preppers.
>
Many coins I look for now are thinly traded and I’m using auction comps going back several years. So yeah, when I zero in on something, let’s just say I’m not the only one doing the ‘zeroing!’👍😂
>
So I’m seeing strong prices for sure!
@Catbert said: @jmlanzaf Occam's razor indicates that stupid is as stupid does. He could have stated that he was revisiting the thread one year later, but he didn't and his prior behavior indicates cluelessness.
@Catbert said: @jmlanzaf Occam's razor indicates that stupid is as stupid does. He could have stated that he was revisiting the thread one year later, but he didn't and his prior behavior indicates cluelessness.
It was a joke
Emojis, Joe. Emojis are your friend, we’ve been through this…lol
I recall a thread I started a few months ago in whichI asked why the prices on some CAC stickered $20 Liberties were below price list. At that time, it did not occur to me that the coin market was getting soft at the same time gold bullion was hitting new highs. I continued texting Dan and still did not realize what was happening.
I did notice that it was getting easier for me to win coins at auction whereas in 2022 it was impossible to win coins at a reasonable price or was sold before I even found about it.
The way I see it there is a lot of uncertainty in this country and around the world. A lot of things going to happen in the next few months and people are spooked, just look at the stock market. I'm not a person that would say the sky is falling BUT ..................
Agree. Look at the NY Prepper reports on utube. People are scared, stocking up on survival food, gold, weapons, ammo. Am not buying much but bullion material numismatic wise if anything. If hotspots escalate…got your bug out bag ready, shelter nearby?
People are scared? Cruise lines are packed, plane flights are packed, stadiums are packed. Seems that most normal people are enjoying life.
I’ve been hearing these impending doomsday stories for decades. Ya’ll can stock up on survivalist stuff to your heart’s content, if it makes you feel better. Just keep in mind someone bigger, tougher, and better armed will probably take it away from you in heartbeat if it really goes sideways. Me? I’ll be in the pool drinking rum runners, planning trips, helping my buddy refurbish his second boat, and bidding on large cents.
Exceptional coins are in very high demand and they show up so infrequently that if you haven’t been in the market for a decade, you generally don’t even know what exceptional even is as they appear so infrequently.
That said, we have been spoiled since 2020. Some great collections came to market and we will look back and marvel at how great that period was.
Keep your standards high. Don’t chase marginal coins and save your money for the real gems.
Survivalists should still have Y2K gear in mothballs what more do they need?
Yes the economy is slowing up right now, there is not as much liquidity sloshing around for discretionary spending. High quality material is holding up...Duh.... does that need to be posted every time?
I would say the weakness will be here for awhile, but high quality material is holding up!
Exceptional coins can and do exist at various grade levels. Having the knowledge and skill to identify them as well as an appreciation for how often such coins are offered makes a difference in terms of assembling a satisfying collection. Be prepared for opportunities because they seem to appear when you least expect it.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I’ll be in the pool drinking rum runners,... and bidding on large cents.
Time to change your avatar?
And sell that awesome Walker to me!
When I joined back in '07, walkers were my long time obsession. Many variations of "walker" were already in use in others' names, so I picked my favorite date. I still love walkers, especially the early dates, and always will, but my set has been basically complete for my standards, for many years, though there are still a couple I need, as well as a few upgrades. Sorry @Catbert, I wish I owned the avatar, but it was just a choice from the small list available when I joined.
I caught the middle date large cent bug while building my 7070 back in the late '80's, and about 12+ years ago the whole dang series became the new obsession.
I stopped at a local brick and mortar shop today in a college town and the owner said right now he's selling bullion to numismatic coins at a ratio of probably 100:1. He said he'd have a heart attack if someone walked in and said, "Hey, do you have such and such date coin?" Lol!
Exceptional coins across the board are still bringing record prices.
This one did ok😉
mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
I’ll be in the pool drinking rum runners,... and bidding on large cents.
Time to change your avatar?
And sell that awesome Walker to me!
When I joined back in '07, walkers were my long time obsession. Many variations of "walker" were already in use in others' names, so I picked my favorite date. I still love walkers, especially the early dates, and always will, but my set has been basically complete for my standards, for many years, though there are still a couple I need, as well as a few upgrades. Sorry @Catbert, I wish I owned the avatar, but it was just a choice from the small list available when I joined.
I caught the middle date large cent bug while building my 7070 back in the late '80's, and about 12+ years ago the whole dang series became the new obsession.
That is interesting how you came up with your user name!
21 was also my favorite number not because it was my favorite Walker date but because i was a big fan of two ballplayers back in the late 1960’s. Roberto Clemente and Cleon Jones.
@MFeld said: It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices.
I disagree.
These are pretty much the exact words that we hear every time the market has a downturn. Those who, like me, have been following the "market" for half a century or more know this phrase all too well. It sounds good to the less experienced but it is impossible to sustain this trend, especially for long periods of time. If we have a stake in the market, we're going to tend to have a bias in the way we look at it. And I believe that Mr. Feld has a stake and is repeating words that I've been hearing forever. He's looking at the positive side, as most here will prefer to do. And that's OK, but be realistic, too.
If the best stuff continue to rise in value (or at least hold it own) compared to everything else in the numismatic market, the good stuff becomes relatively expensive and the rest becomes relatively cheap. If this was to happen over and over, eventually the good stuff is way overpriced and out of reach of an increasing number of collectors, reducing the demand, while the rest of the market lags. At some point that lagging market looks cheaper and cheaper to potential collectors and demand there increases in response to falling prices. There are self-correcting mechanisms inherent in the market that keep all of the material roughly in proportion in price. Sure there are both sleepers and hot series but, eventually, time and the collectors bring prices back into relative proportion.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
@sellitstore said: @MFeld said: It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices.
I disagree.
These are pretty much the exact words that we hear every time the market has a downturn. Those who, like me, have been following the "market" for half a century or more know this phrase all too well. It sounds good to the less experienced but it is impossible to sustain this trend, especially for long periods of time. If we have a stake in the market, we're going to tend to have a bias in the way we look at it. And I believe that Mr. Feld has a stake and is repeating words that I've been hearing forever. He's looking at the positive side, as most here will prefer to do. And that's OK, but be realistic, too.
Sorry Mark, if you were more experienced and had been through many market cycles you would understand this. Best that you take @sellitstore 's advice to heart, he knows better than you.
@lermish Excuse me for daring to speak. Who do you think you are?
Obviously Mark is 100% right all of the time and nobody is allowed to disagree with anything he says. Are you kidding?
I have respect for Mark and I hope that he has respect for me, for the same reasons-experience.
Yes, @lermish, you should continue to read my posts but attack the content-not me. You haven't started to explain why, sometimes, even the best coins go down in value. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
@sellitstore said: @lermish Excuse me for daring to speak. Who do you think you are?
Obviously Mark is 100% right all of the time and nobody is allowed to disagree with anything he says. Are you kidding?
I have respect for Mark and I hope that he has respect for me, for the same reasons-experience.
Yes, @lermish, you should continue to read my posts but attack the content-not me. You haven't started to explain why, sometimes, even the best coins go down in value. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
The content is the problem. Many of your posts have some comment about how others are less experienced and you are more experienced. If you could make a comment without self aggrandizement, your opinion would have more validity.
Are we confusing two threads where I made a sarcastic comment in each?
No, Mark (or anyone) isn't "right" 100% of the time but 98-99% might be a good guess. Since this was a rare time where I disagreed, I felt that it was beneficial to provide another experienced point of view in this thread. I don't see why this upsets you or why you claim that I thought that Mark wasn't experienced. He is, but so am I and we both have good information to offer. Not sure why you don't understand this by now.
In another thread, we were discussing a spam posting made by a well known long time numismatic dealer/promoter. I made a sarcastic comment about him being back again and you didn't seem to know the dealer or if I was being sarcastic.
Can we stop wasting time on this now?
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
"It sounds good to the less experienced" upsets you?
Since when is discussing our numismatic experience forbidden here? I'm still not getting what upsets you so much?
The content is the problem. Many of your posts have some comment about how others are less experienced and you are more experienced. If you could make a comment without self aggrandizement, your opinion would have more validity.
When did I ever comment about Mark's lack of experience? I didn't. I never belittle others for lack of knowledge or experience. I'm here to share and spread my knowledge.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
These are pretty much the exact words that we hear every time the market has a downturn. Those who, like me, have been following the "market" for half a century or more know this phrase all too well. It sounds good to the less experienced but it is impossible to sustain this trend, especially for long periods of time. If we have a stake in the market, we're going to tend to have a bias in the way we look at it. And I believe that Mr. Feld has a stake and is repeating words that I've been hearing forever. He's looking at the positive side, as most here will prefer to do. And that's OK, but be realistic, too.
If the best stuff continue to rise in value (or at least hold it own) compared to everything else in the numismatic market, the good stuff becomes relatively expensive and the rest becomes relatively cheap. If this was to happen over and over, eventually the good stuff is way overpriced and out of reach of an increasing number of collectors, reducing the demand, while the rest of the market lags. At some point that lagging market looks cheaper and cheaper to potential collectors and demand there increases in response to falling prices. There are self-correcting mechanisms inherent in the market that keep all of the material roughly in proportion in price. Sure there are both sleepers and hot series but, eventually, time and the collectors bring prices back into relative proportion.
All good well reasoned points.
No claim to a crystal ball here...... That cycle/dynamic did eventually come to a stop in the stamp market due to changing demographics, and technology---email, switch to digital postage. Still a high-end market, but with much lower highs, Every-person collectors never recovered.
Acknowledge stamp/coin markets were and are substantially different. But higher end of a collector’s market can detach itself, and in effect eventually become the only market.
Yes, a comparison with the stamp market is a valid one as they are alike in many ways, too. And I have learned by watching it's demise and a similar, but not as severe course taken in numismatics. The differences account for the fact that there are still markets for both the rarities and the common stuff in coins but only the market for better stamps still exists. Stamps are now nearly completely out of use on letters and that how I, and many other stamp collectors started 50+ years ago.
But what about the "keys"? I've always looked at C13-15 like 1909-S VDB cents. More of each made than collectors really need but their scarcity made them target for hoarding, and pricing reacts to supply and demand, so these were always the keys. The 1909 cents have risen steadily in value over the years while the Graf Zeppelins still seem cheap. Same numbers of these keys around, but steady demand for the cents and a broad market has supported rising prices. Fewer stamp collectors concentrate the Zeppelins and other good material in fewer hands and when these collectors die, more material comes on the market with less big fish collectors to buy them. Prices for stamps have fallen. The broader collector and dealer base for coins makes this less likely for coins but when coins go up too fast, **relative **to other coins and collectibles, they can come back down, too. We just tend to ignore the the drops.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
@sellitstore said: @lermish Excuse me for daring to speak. Who do you think you are?
Obviously Mark is 100% right all of the time and nobody is allowed to disagree with anything he says. Are you kidding?
I have respect for Mark and I hope that he has respect for me, for the same reasons-experience.
Yes, @lermish, you should continue to read my posts but attack the content-not me. You haven't started to explain why, sometimes, even the best coins go down in value. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
The question is not whether the best coins go down. The question is whether they ARE going down. And they don't yet seem to be. There are soft spots in the market, but the top end has stayed strong. That is all Mark was saying. You have, accidentally or intentionally, changed the question.
Did an informal, and completely unscientific survey of other collectible markets in an earlier post on this thread. Tops of those markets are mixed. Coin highs seem to be an exception to trends in those other markets Other than noting that, have no explanation for why. Perhaps there is a rotation in from other collectible markets....
@sellitstore said:
Yes, a comparison with the stamp market is a valid one as they are alike in many ways, too. And I have learned by watching it's demise and a similar, but not as severe course taken in numismatics. The differences account for the fact that there are still markets for both the rarities and the common stuff in coins but only the market for better stamps still exists. Stamps are now nearly completely out of use on letters and that how I, and many other stamp collectors started 50+ years ago.
But what about the "keys"? I've always looked at C13-15 like 1909-S VDB cents. More of each made than collectors really need but their scarcity made them target for hoarding, and pricing reacts to supply and demand, so these were always the keys. The 1909 cents have risen steadily in value over the years while the Graf Zeppelins still seem cheap. Same numbers of these keys around, but steady demand for the cents and a broad market has supported rising prices. Fewer stamp collectors concentrate the Zeppelins and other good material in fewer hands and when these collectors die, more material comes on the market with less big fish collectors to buy them. Prices for stamps have fallen. The broader collector and dealer base for coins makes this less likely for coins but when coins go up too fast, **relative **to other coins and collectibles, they can come back down, too. We just tend to ignore the the drops.
Neither SVDB cents nor Zeps represents the high end of the market.
.... The question is not whether the best coins go down. The question is whether they ARE going down....
Think your framing is too narrow, Believe the following questions are likewise fairly presented:
1) What is driving the highs,
2) Are they sustainable
3) How do new highs effect mid to every-person coins
3) Is the market for mid to low and every-person coins softening…
4) If so, what are the pros and cons for a rebound in that market segment if that is the case
.... The question is not whether the best coins go down. The question is whether they ARE going down....
Think your framing is too narrow, Believe the following questions are likewise fairly presented:
1) What is driving the highs,
2) Are they sustainable
3) How do new highs effect mid to every-person coins
3) Is the market for mid to low and every-person coins softening…
4) If so, what are the pros and cons for a rebound in that market segment if that is the case
But we don't CURRENTLY see a softening at the top, which is the market segment @MFeld referenced. Maybe a little on some areas but not overall.
Yes, mid to low is softer, but that is not what Mark was referencing.
The top end of the market has been disconnected from the rest of the market for a decade or more. Since you like stamps, the top of the stamp market has been decoupled for close to 30 years. So the decoupling can persist indefinitely.
People at the bottom of the market should never allow themselves to be influenced by the headlines generated at the top. Unfortunately, they often do.
@sellitstore said: @MFeld said: It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices.
I disagree.
These are pretty much the exact words that we hear every time the market has a downturn. Those who, like me, have been following the "market" for half a century or more know this phrase all too well. It sounds good to the less experienced but it is impossible to sustain this trend, especially for long periods of time. If we have a stake in the market, we're going to tend to have a bias in the way we look at it. And I believe that Mr. Feld has a stake and is repeating words that I've been hearing forever. He's looking at the positive side, as most here will prefer to do. And that's OK, but be realistic, too.
If the best stuff continue to rise in value (or at least hold it own) compared to everything else in the numismatic market, the good stuff becomes relatively expensive and the rest becomes relatively cheap. If this was to happen over and over, eventually the good stuff is way overpriced and out of reach of an increasing number of collectors, reducing the demand, while the rest of the market lags. At some point that lagging market looks cheaper and cheaper to potential collectors and demand there increases in response to falling prices. There are self-correcting mechanisms inherent in the market that keep all of the material roughly in proportion in price. Sure there are both sleepers and hot series but, eventually, time and the collectors bring prices back into relative proportion.
My post, which you quoted in part, was from last year. Since that time, in my opinion, there’s been a noticeable general downtrend.
Yes, I have a stake in the market, but I tend to be cautious and just as likely to be pessimistic as optimistic. That’s part of the reason I’ve publicly disagreed with people who say things like “Buy the best you can afford”, You can’t go wrong buying a great coin” or “You cant buy nice coins below price guide.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@MFeld said:
It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices. And that many of the rest are somewhat softer. Despite that pull-back in prices, a lot of coins - even very common generic issues - still trade at considerably higher levels than they did just a few years ago. Many collectors and dealers got spoiled by a market that was surprisingly strong in most areas, so the current good conditions don’t seem feel as strong as they otherwise would.
Mark, how does it feel to be right, not only like 99.5% of the time, but to be so succinct in that correctness??
And I mean this 100% sincerely. No tongue in cheek, no mockery, total real deal. It cannot be overstated how much you have your finger on the pulse of our little niche. 👍🏻
Thank you for your very kind comments!
Please allow me to correct what appears to have been a typo - I believe that your question should have read “Mark, how does it feel to be right, not only like 5.99% of the time, but to be so succinct in that correctness??”, not “Mark, how does it feel to be right, not only like 99.5% of the time, but to be so succinct in that correctness??😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Several recent threads have really gone off the rails, as some readers want to dissect every word to try to find something to criticize, or perhaps even misinterpret the real meaning of the questions or points being made.
To me this is a sign of stress in the market, or at least a sign of stress in the forum participants.
Yes, people do nitpick and lose sight of the forest through the trees but I think that there are finally some good points being made.
Mark-I'm glad that you have clarified your current position and noted that your previous comment was now outdated.
My point of "I've heard this line before" was to express exactly that- "The high end continues to do well while lesser items are sagging" is the sentiment that prevails whenever there is a market downturn. @jmlanzaf -I know that I'm not referring specifically to this market but to this phrase or explanation. You are nitpicking again. You accuse me of changing the topic-"You have, accidentally or intentionally, changed the question". It was intentional and you are nitpicking. "Neither SVDB cents nor Zeps represents the high end of the market." Nitpicking again but, more importantly ignoring my point, which can be made with either keys (like these) or extreme rarities, if you prefer.
On the other hand, I think that @JCH22 raises five good questions(two #3s-nitpick!) with his post. So, keep posting but only if you have something of value to add.
Oh, and getting back to the O/P question, I collect in the specialized collector area of obsolete currency. Like national currency, collectors tend to further fragment in their interests, specializing often in their state or geographic area. This very thin market makes for huge variability in price for items of similar rarity from different locations. For example, the previously strong market (for decades) for Alabama and Arkansas notes has weakened due to the exit of just one or two key collectors. In some cases, prices have dropped by half or more. Connecticut is a state that has also been strong for decades. Now, as some of the older collectors are becoming less active and dying, the is a bit of weakening but still enough collectors with money to maintain pretty strong prices. New York, my favorite state to collect, has always been a laggard in demand and values and that's one of the reasons why I chose to start collecting this state. The number of collectors and demand has risen considerably for this state and the recent sale of a large collection of NY notes has added fuel to the fire. Prices for NY notes are finally rising-a double-edged sword from my perspective.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
@sellitstore said:
Yes, people do nitpick and lose sight of the forest through the trees but I think that there are finally some good points being made.
Mark-I'm glad that you have clarified your current position and noted that your previous comment was now outdated.
My point of "I've heard this line before" was to express exactly that- "The high end continues to do well while lesser items are sagging" is the sentiment that prevails whenever there is a market downturn. @jmlanzaf -I know that I'm not referring specifically to this market but to this phrase or explanation. You are nitpicking again. You accuse me of changing the topic-"You have, accidentally or intentionally, changed the question". It was intentional and you are nitpicking. "Neither SVDB cents nor Zeps represents the high end of the market." Nitpicking again but, more importantly ignoring my point, which can be made with either keys (like these) or extreme rarities, if you prefer.
On the other hand, I think that @JCH22 raises five good questions(two #3s-nitpick!) with his post. So, keep posting but only if you have something of value to add.
Oh, and getting back to the O/P question, I collect in the specialized collector area of obsolete currency. Like national currency, collectors tend to further fragment in their interests, specializing often in their state or geographic area. This very thin market makes for huge variability in price for items of similar rarity from different locations. For example, the previously strong market (for decades) for Alabama and Arkansas notes has weakened due to the exit of just one or two key collectors. In some cases, prices have dropped by half or more. Connecticut is a state that has also been strong for decades. Now, as some of the older collectors are becoming less active and dying, the is a bit of weakening but still enough collectors with money to maintain pretty strong prices. New York, my favorite state to collect, has always been a laggard in demand and values and that's one of the reasons why I chose to start collecting this state. The number of collectors and demand has risen considerably for this state and the recent sale of a large collection of NY notes has added fuel to the fire. Prices for NY notes are finally rising-a double-edged sword from my perspective.
Accusing me of nitpicking (falsely) is not a counter argument. You accuse me of nitpicking at the same time that you admit that you intentionally changed the question.
I went back to the O/P but you continue to nitpick? Are you capable of contributing anything of value to the discussion? If not, we don't need to hear it.> @DisneyFan said:
@sellitstore said:
I went back to the O/P but you continue to nitpick? Are you capable of contributing anything of value to the discussion? If not, we don't need to hear it.
Buying Side - real good. Getting a lot of stuff below bid, exciting / good margin retailing. Sell Side - Volume Fair to midly.
Shows where the wholesaler not there great. If he’s there - slows my retail coin sales / then currency needs carry the ball. Some good Cert coin buys from him though - CDN bid plus 5pct. Looking at setting up at some gun shows / coins & currency. CSA, Obsoletes, NBN notes popular there. Hardly any competition (coin dealers), wholesaler not at those…..retail some the stuff bought from him to the gun people - $$$ lol. Like Tony in Jersey says - Gotta work ya angle.
Work your angle, have fun, buy low, sell strong, watch out for the show criminals.
Comments
So what biz is it of yours lol? Do you have anything original beside trashing people.
On a macro level…..
Other collectible markets are off their 2022 highs. Many seem to be in a holding pattern, if not down, while looking to take a direction (the recent stock market though has taken some pretty heavy daily swings this last month)
Collector Car market
https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/hagerty-insider/the-2024-collector-car-market-feels-eerily-similar-to-2015/
Watch Market
https://robbreport.com/style/watch-collector/q1-2024-report-watch-market-slows-1235602572/
Fine Wine Market:
https://winecap.com/learn/q2-2024-fine-wine-report
Fine Art:
https://theartmarket.artbasel.com/download/The-Art-Basel-and-UBS-Art-Market-Report-2024.pdf
Inflation has abated considerably since 2022.
Many of them counter lower bc they don’t know how to price the material. Once one becomes aware of their modus operx a strategy can be developed for them. Had a big spender like that but I just padded price accordingly giving him his 30 pct discount / still making the margin I wanted. It’s called negotiation.
I only bid on Seated material so my information is of limited value. On Great Collections I have not had a winning bid since early May. In fact, I have speculated before that someone like the Stephenville group has been bidding again because many coins go for far above any price references of any kind. I have had 1 win on Heritage auctions but will also mention that there have been very few circulated Seated coin in the Heritage Tuesday auctions. I have Seated quarters. for instance, in my tracking list and have gone entire months without a single notification. Finally, I have been lucky to find 4 coins that I have on my "get if at all possible list", but all of them were on dealer sites. James
Bullion has kept a coin shop afloat for the past year. I won’t speculate as to why but in my ‘hood, collectors aren’t shopping near as much as the preppers.
HE>I
>
Many coins I look for now are thinly traded and I’m using auction comps going back several years. So yeah, when I zero in on something, let’s just say I’m not the only one doing the ‘zeroing!’👍😂
>
So I’m seeing strong prices for sure!
It was a joke
Emojis, Joe. Emojis are your friend, we’ve been through this…lol
Founder- Peak Rarities
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I recall a thread I started a few months ago in whichI asked why the prices on some CAC stickered $20 Liberties were below price list. At that time, it did not occur to me that the coin market was getting soft at the same time gold bullion was hitting new highs. I continued texting Dan and still did not realize what was happening.
I did notice that it was getting easier for me to win coins at auction whereas in 2022 it was impossible to win coins at a reasonable price or was sold before I even found about it.
The way I see it there is a lot of uncertainty in this country and around the world. A lot of things going to happen in the next few months and people are spooked, just look at the stock market. I'm not a person that would say the sky is falling BUT ..................
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
Agree. Look at the NY Prepper reports on utube. People are scared, stocking up on survival food, gold, weapons, ammo. Am not buying much but bullion material numismatic wise if anything. If hotspots escalate…got your bug out bag ready, shelter nearby?
People are scared? Cruise lines are packed, plane flights are packed, stadiums are packed. Seems that most normal people are enjoying life.
I’ve been hearing these impending doomsday stories for decades. Ya’ll can stock up on survivalist stuff to your heart’s content, if it makes you feel better. Just keep in mind someone bigger, tougher, and better armed will probably take it away from you in heartbeat if it really goes sideways. Me? I’ll be in the pool drinking rum runners, planning trips, helping my buddy refurbish his second boat, and bidding on large cents.
I’ll be in the pool drinking rum runners,... and bidding on large cents.
Time to change your avatar?
And sell that awesome Walker to me!
Exceptional coins are in very high demand and they show up so infrequently that if you haven’t been in the market for a decade, you generally don’t even know what exceptional even is as they appear so infrequently.
That said, we have been spoiled since 2020. Some great collections came to market and we will look back and marvel at how great that period was.
Keep your standards high. Don’t chase marginal coins and save your money for the real gems.
Latin American Collection
Survivalists should still have Y2K gear in mothballs what more do they need?
Yes the economy is slowing up right now, there is not as much liquidity sloshing around for discretionary spending. High quality material is holding up...Duh.... does that need to be posted every time?
I would say the weakness will be here for awhile, but high quality material is holding up!
Exceptional coins can and do exist at various grade levels. Having the knowledge and skill to identify them as well as an appreciation for how often such coins are offered makes a difference in terms of assembling a satisfying collection. Be prepared for opportunities because they seem to appear when you least expect it.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
When I joined back in '07, walkers were my long time obsession. Many variations of "walker" were already in use in others' names, so I picked my favorite date. I still love walkers, especially the early dates, and always will, but my set has been basically complete for my standards, for many years, though there are still a couple I need, as well as a few upgrades. Sorry @Catbert, I wish I owned the avatar, but it was just a choice from the small list available when I joined.
I caught the middle date large cent bug while building my 7070 back in the late '80's, and about 12+ years ago the whole dang series became the new obsession.
I stopped at a local brick and mortar shop today in a college town and the owner said right now he's selling bullion to numismatic coins at a ratio of probably 100:1. He said he'd have a heart attack if someone walked in and said, "Hey, do you have such and such date coin?" Lol!
My Carson City Morgan Registry Set
Exceptional coins across the board are still bringing record prices.
This one did ok😉
That is interesting how you came up with your user name!
21 was also my favorite number not because it was my favorite Walker date but because i was a big fan of two ballplayers back in the late 1960’s. Roberto Clemente and Cleon Jones.
@MFeld said:
It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices.
I disagree.
These are pretty much the exact words that we hear every time the market has a downturn. Those who, like me, have been following the "market" for half a century or more know this phrase all too well. It sounds good to the less experienced but it is impossible to sustain this trend, especially for long periods of time. If we have a stake in the market, we're going to tend to have a bias in the way we look at it. And I believe that Mr. Feld has a stake and is repeating words that I've been hearing forever. He's looking at the positive side, as most here will prefer to do. And that's OK, but be realistic, too.
If the best stuff continue to rise in value (or at least hold it own) compared to everything else in the numismatic market, the good stuff becomes relatively expensive and the rest becomes relatively cheap. If this was to happen over and over, eventually the good stuff is way overpriced and out of reach of an increasing number of collectors, reducing the demand, while the rest of the market lags. At some point that lagging market looks cheaper and cheaper to potential collectors and demand there increases in response to falling prices. There are self-correcting mechanisms inherent in the market that keep all of the material roughly in proportion in price. Sure there are both sleepers and hot series but, eventually, time and the collectors bring prices back into relative proportion.
Sorry Mark, if you were more experienced and had been through many market cycles you would understand this. Best that you take @sellitstore 's advice to heart, he knows better than you.
🙄🙄🙄
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
@lermish Excuse me for daring to speak. Who do you think you are?
Obviously Mark is 100% right all of the time and nobody is allowed to disagree with anything he says. Are you kidding?
I have respect for Mark and I hope that he has respect for me, for the same reasons-experience.
Yes, @lermish, you should continue to read my posts but attack the content-not me. You haven't started to explain why, sometimes, even the best coins go down in value. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
My apologies, I thought you were being sarcastic.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
The content is the problem. Many of your posts have some comment about how others are less experienced and you are more experienced. If you could make a comment without self aggrandizement, your opinion would have more validity.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
I was.
Are we confusing two threads where I made a sarcastic comment in each?
No, Mark (or anyone) isn't "right" 100% of the time but 98-99% might be a good guess. Since this was a rare time where I disagreed, I felt that it was beneficial to provide another experienced point of view in this thread. I don't see why this upsets you or why you claim that I thought that Mark wasn't experienced. He is, but so am I and we both have good information to offer. Not sure why you don't understand this by now.
In another thread, we were discussing a spam posting made by a well known long time numismatic dealer/promoter. I made a sarcastic comment about him being back again and you didn't seem to know the dealer or if I was being sarcastic.
Can we stop wasting time on this now?
"It sounds good to the less experienced" upsets you?
Since when is discussing our numismatic experience forbidden here? I'm still not getting what upsets you so much?
The content is the problem. Many of your posts have some comment about how others are less experienced and you are more experienced. If you could make a comment without self aggrandizement, your opinion would have more validity.
When did I ever comment about Mark's lack of experience? I didn't. I never belittle others for lack of knowledge or experience. I'm here to share and spread my knowledge.
All good well reasoned points.
No claim to a crystal ball here...... That cycle/dynamic did eventually come to a stop in the stamp market due to changing demographics, and technology---email, switch to digital postage. Still a high-end market, but with much lower highs, Every-person collectors never recovered.
Acknowledge stamp/coin markets were and are substantially different. But higher end of a collector’s market can detach itself, and in effect eventually become the only market.
Yes, a comparison with the stamp market is a valid one as they are alike in many ways, too. And I have learned by watching it's demise and a similar, but not as severe course taken in numismatics. The differences account for the fact that there are still markets for both the rarities and the common stuff in coins but only the market for better stamps still exists. Stamps are now nearly completely out of use on letters and that how I, and many other stamp collectors started 50+ years ago.
But what about the "keys"? I've always looked at C13-15 like 1909-S VDB cents. More of each made than collectors really need but their scarcity made them target for hoarding, and pricing reacts to supply and demand, so these were always the keys. The 1909 cents have risen steadily in value over the years while the Graf Zeppelins still seem cheap. Same numbers of these keys around, but steady demand for the cents and a broad market has supported rising prices. Fewer stamp collectors concentrate the Zeppelins and other good material in fewer hands and when these collectors die, more material comes on the market with less big fish collectors to buy them. Prices for stamps have fallen. The broader collector and dealer base for coins makes this less likely for coins but when coins go up too fast, **relative **to other coins and collectibles, they can come back down, too. We just tend to ignore the the drops.
The question is not whether the best coins go down. The question is whether they ARE going down. And they don't yet seem to be. There are soft spots in the market, but the top end has stayed strong. That is all Mark was saying. You have, accidentally or intentionally, changed the question.
Did an informal, and completely unscientific survey of other collectible markets in an earlier post on this thread. Tops of those markets are mixed. Coin highs seem to be an exception to trends in those other markets Other than noting that, have no explanation for why. Perhaps there is a rotation in from other collectible markets....
Neither SVDB cents nor Zeps represents the high end of the market.
Think your framing is too narrow, Believe the following questions are likewise fairly presented:
1) What is driving the highs,
2) Are they sustainable
3) How do new highs effect mid to every-person coins
3) Is the market for mid to low and every-person coins softening…
4) If so, what are the pros and cons for a rebound in that market segment if that is the case
This thread has devolved into pointless ad hominem street fight #671 on the forum this year. A lot of hours we'll never get back.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
But we don't CURRENTLY see a softening at the top, which is the market segment @MFeld referenced. Maybe a little on some areas but not overall.
Yes, mid to low is softer, but that is not what Mark was referencing.
The top end of the market has been disconnected from the rest of the market for a decade or more. Since you like stamps, the top of the stamp market has been decoupled for close to 30 years. So the decoupling can persist indefinitely.
People at the bottom of the market should never allow themselves to be influenced by the headlines generated at the top. Unfortunately, they often do.
My post, which you quoted in part, was from last year. Since that time, in my opinion, there’s been a noticeable general downtrend.
Yes, I have a stake in the market, but I tend to be cautious and just as likely to be pessimistic as optimistic. That’s part of the reason I’ve publicly disagreed with people who say things like “Buy the best you can afford”, You can’t go wrong buying a great coin” or “You cant buy nice coins below price guide.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Thank you for your very kind comments!
Please allow me to correct what appears to have been a typo - I believe that your question should have read “Mark, how does it feel to be right, not only like 5.99% of the time, but to be so succinct in that correctness??”, not “Mark, how does it feel to be right, not only like 99.5% of the time, but to be so succinct in that correctness??😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Several recent threads have really gone off the rails, as some readers want to dissect every word to try to find something to criticize, or perhaps even misinterpret the real meaning of the questions or points being made.
To me this is a sign of stress in the market, or at least a sign of stress in the forum participants.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Yes, people do nitpick and lose sight of the forest through the trees but I think that there are finally some good points being made.
Mark-I'm glad that you have clarified your current position and noted that your previous comment was now outdated.
My point of "I've heard this line before" was to express exactly that- "The high end continues to do well while lesser items are sagging" is the sentiment that prevails whenever there is a market downturn. @jmlanzaf -I know that I'm not referring specifically to this market but to this phrase or explanation. You are nitpicking again. You accuse me of changing the topic-"You have, accidentally or intentionally, changed the question". It was intentional and you are nitpicking. "Neither SVDB cents nor Zeps represents the high end of the market." Nitpicking again but, more importantly ignoring my point, which can be made with either keys (like these) or extreme rarities, if you prefer.
On the other hand, I think that @JCH22 raises five good questions(two #3s-nitpick!) with his post. So, keep posting but only if you have something of value to add.
Oh, and getting back to the O/P question, I collect in the specialized collector area of obsolete currency. Like national currency, collectors tend to further fragment in their interests, specializing often in their state or geographic area. This very thin market makes for huge variability in price for items of similar rarity from different locations. For example, the previously strong market (for decades) for Alabama and Arkansas notes has weakened due to the exit of just one or two key collectors. In some cases, prices have dropped by half or more. Connecticut is a state that has also been strong for decades. Now, as some of the older collectors are becoming less active and dying, the is a bit of weakening but still enough collectors with money to maintain pretty strong prices. New York, my favorite state to collect, has always been a laggard in demand and values and that's one of the reasons why I chose to start collecting this state. The number of collectors and demand has risen considerably for this state and the recent sale of a large collection of NY notes has added fuel to the fire. Prices for NY notes are finally rising-a double-edged sword from my perspective.
Accusing me of nitpicking (falsely) is not a counter argument. You accuse me of nitpicking at the same time that you admit that you intentionally changed the question.
They do to the average collector who considers anything more rarer and/or expensive way, way beyond their means.
I went back to the O/P but you continue to nitpick? Are you capable of contributing anything of value to the discussion? If not, we don't need to hear it.> @DisneyFan said:
Thank you.
Hey @jmlanzaf , I've got this for you.
@sellitstore please excuse @jmlanzaf for daring to speak. Who do you think you are?
I appreciate you coming down from Mt Olympus to graciously bestow your knowledge upon us. We'll never dare to question you or confront you again.
I wonder how quickly you go through razors with the size of that head.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Update - Market
Buying Side - real good. Getting a lot of stuff below bid, exciting / good margin retailing. Sell Side - Volume Fair to midly.
Shows where the wholesaler not there great. If he’s there - slows my retail coin sales / then currency needs carry the ball. Some good Cert coin buys from him though - CDN bid plus 5pct. Looking at setting up at some gun shows / coins & currency. CSA, Obsoletes, NBN notes popular there. Hardly any competition (coin dealers), wholesaler not at those…..retail some the stuff bought from him to the gun people - $$$ lol. Like Tony in Jersey says - Gotta work ya angle.
Work your angle, have fun, buy low, sell strong, watch out for the show criminals.
We will fight back! KBW Crew