@MFeld said:
It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices. And that many of the rest are somewhat softer. Despite that pull-back in prices, a lot of coins - even very common generic issues - still trade at considerably higher levels than they did just a few years ago. Many collectors and dealers got spoiled by a market that was surprisingly strong in most areas, so the current good conditions don’t seem feel as strong as they otherwise would.
Collectors- Have the current economic conditions put a damper on your discretionary spending? Are you currently buying as per usual or are you in conservative mode? D
Yes I guess a bit. But the bigger drawdown for me has been higher coin prices. They have slowly spiraled up over the last few years in the areas I collect and can afford (think mid-MS Morgans etc. and G-VF keys) and have gotten to the point that the number of items I can purchase with my annual coin budget has been reduced quite a bit. This despite a declining collector base!
I used to always be able to pick something up at a show with enthusiasm but now probably 50% of the time leave a show with nothing.
Online has been soft (if not outright horrible) shows can vary. One big spender customer can literally make ones show. A bad show - Gross Margin from sales less show expense negative. A friend who sets up at a local National Show (lots of competition big gun out of town dealers) accounts for the $300+ table fee as advertising expense (opportunity hand out his business cards).
I feel the market is weak due to economic conditions, uncertainty. Money is really tight for people right now. People are scared…..But with strong retail clients (well heeled private investors) I am finding good yardage.
Unless can buy the US coins right (example -10 pct behind CDN Bid - not a buyer). I have more than enough inventory fill my cases at shows. US slabbed coins seem a bit over priced to me vs equivalent low pop world slabbed coins which are seeing strong demand. Considering dropping my offers on US to 20pct behind bid due to current market conditions.
I believe it’s more likely the market will have downward correction than up. Just find a good angle and work it. My mantra buy low / sell high, don’t let them (griefers, tirekickers) bug you, don’t get buried in it, and keep inventory level solid.
Collectors- Have the current economic conditions put a damper on your discretionary spending?
Absolutely! Inflation and the entire economy sucks in this country! It's not bad luck, it's not a mistake and it's not incompetence.............it's intentional. Current fiscal policy is unsustainable. Any questions???
We're at the lowest point in the four year cycle. Next year there will be lots of icing and gravy but little cake or meat. After that we can look forward to lower lows for most of us.
Moderns, at least generic ones have softened substantially but this has nothing to do with demand or the election cycle probably and much more to do with being a victims of circumstances and their own success. The huge price increases have led to increased supply available for sale and the degradation caused by storage is bringing large amounts out of the woodwork.
My target market is Seated Coins in the 200 to 400 dollar range. Two years ago a group calling itself the Stephenville group paid wildly high premiums for material in this market. (I personally tracked over 300 coins they set the new highest price paid for.) Since then the price points have gotten a little lower but any eye appealing coins that come on the market tend to sell for 20 to 50 percent more than CDN. James
Observations from myself and other dealers local to Philly that I do business with;
Bullion sales sharply down.
Folks are selling coins/bullion more now than they have in a while, sign of economic softness.
Quality material still flies.
Fresh to market stuff is also super easy to move.
Old holders remain hot, hot, hot. Especially with CAC. I haven't added a coin to the core personal collection in months.
Casual observation; All the folks that started dealing during Covid are having a tough time adjusting to the new market dynamic. You can't buy at sheet on generic-ish stuff and make a profit these days. That was the coin market on easy mode. I'm very interested to see how that group evolves with the new dynamic, which seems much more akin to the dynamic of 4 years ago, where sheet is what your end buyers wanna pay for the vast majority of material. It should cause a few to drop out and force consolidation, with a much smaller group of winners emerging to herald in the rise of next generation of dealers.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Collectors- Have the current economic conditions put a damper on your discretionary spending? Are you currently buying as per usual or are you in conservative mode? D
Yes I guess a bit. But the bigger drawdown for me has been higher coin prices. They have slowly spiraled up over the last few years in the areas I collect and can afford (think mid-MS Morgans etc. and G-VF keys) and have gotten to the point that the number of items I can purchase with my annual coin budget has been reduced quite a bit. This despite a declining collector base!
I used to always be able to pick something up at a show with enthusiasm but now probably 50% of the time leave a show with nothing.
K
Why do you think there's a declining collector base?
I play a lot of casino poker. Poker and the numismatic market are obviously very different but there are also similarities. The poker action especially the bigger games in LA are drying up. The casual, recreational players who the games are built on are simply not playing as much because of the economy and the lack of discretionary funds. Inflation is taking its toll on most of us. Unless you are independently wealthy where prices don’t matter everything is significantly more expensive with a future that is uncertain at best. A flat at best stock market and high interest rates aren’t helping either.
@skier07 said:
I play a lot of casino poker. Poker and the numismatic market are obviously very different but there are also similarities. The poker action especially the bigger games in LA are drying up. The casual, recreational players who the games are built on are simply not playing as much because of the economy and the lack of discretionary funds. Inflation is taking its toll on most of us. Unless you are independently wealthy where prices don’t matter everything is significantly more expensive with a future that is uncertain at best. A flat at best stock market and high interest rates aren’t helping either.
A bit ironic that you are buying the most expensive grade of fuel.
@skier07 said:
I play a lot of casino poker. Poker and the numismatic market are obviously very different but there are also similarities. The poker action especially the bigger games in LA are drying up. The casual, recreational players who the games are built on are simply not playing as much because of the economy and the lack of discretionary funds. Inflation is taking its toll on most of us. Unless you are independently wealthy where prices don’t matter everything is significantly more expensive with a future that is uncertain at best. A flat at best stock market and high interest rates aren’t helping either.
A bit ironic that you are buying the most expensive grade of fuel.
That’s what my car requires and I think most of us follow the manufacturer’s recommendation. 87 octane is still $6/gallon.
@FrankH said:
Best indicator of "market conditions" is when the subject gets traction and a whole lot of folks start asking about .....MARKET CONDITIONS......
Why do you think there's a declining collector base?
Mainly just age and it's associated issues. There are other reasons that I think are contributing to fewer collectors such as lack of coin usage (Gen Z'ers use very little change as electronic payments are the way they conduct business) , high entry prices of nice coins that would take from the disposable dollar pool, etc. amongst other things. For example exceptionally long running series such as the Lincoln Cent, Roosevelt dime, etc. make it difficult to feel a sense of accomplishment for completing a series as it just goes on and one while requiring a greater pocketbook commitment. Of course I have no empirical data to back these things up, just my opinion based on observations.
That's funny!! To my way of thinking you're either a dealer or you aren't, but I digress. To the topic at hand, I have always felt it strange that collectors tend to be divided about what perceived market conditions might be based on what they're trying to do.
--- If a collector is selling and prices(re: the "market") are high it is a good thing. If the same collector is buying it's bad. The same thing applies when prices are low, good if you're buying but bad if you're selling.
It just makes no sense to me, so I buy when I find a coin I like and sell when I feel it's time, current market conditions notwithstanding. I do OK. Right now there's a small group with Stack's that will sell this week and I'm not worried. Certainly we all would like to profit from buying/selling from our "collection" but if you're getting concerned enough to worry about things like this then maybe things aren't as "discretionary" as you think.
Who ever said anything about worrying? That was not the narrative at all, this was just an open discussion about market conditions in which I wanted to hear others experience, opinions, or insights. I've already stated that I would welcome, with open arms, any type of pullback in prices so that I can buy some of the pieces that have escaped my reach at favorable numbers.
As far as your definitions of "collector' or "dealer", you can label me however you please. I get an immense amount of joy from hunting the coins that appeal to me, and I have several coins I plan to hold for a long time. Some of my other coins are lovely, but if I was offered healthy profit and I don't see a compelling reason to keep them, off they go. Sometimes I buy coins from collector friends who want to sell and I think I can offer better numbers than they would get on the bourse. Sometimes I buy lots of generic double eagles or bullion at wholesale if there a spread to be made. I participate in the hobby from several different angles, and I have a lot of fun doing it that way.
Regardless of what I am, I think the market strength topic is worthy of discussion, even if it's more pertinent to the dealer side. I agree that whether the market is strong or weak is not inherently good or bad, but having the awareness and aptitude to adjust your strategies in an evolving market is a useful skill for all involved. As a collector, I might ignore some of the exuberant comps that appear to be outliers from 2022 auctions for coins that I thought went for way too much money. As a dealer, I might have to lower my expectations for some of the stale generics that i've been trying to sell for 3 months ago's prices, when its clear that todays prices are a bit lower. Discourse about any and all things coin related is fun, for me anyway, and I see no benefit in just putting our heads in the sand.
@skier07 said:
I play a lot of casino poker. Poker and the numismatic market are obviously very different but there are also similarities. The poker action especially the bigger games in LA are drying up. The casual, recreational players who the games are built on are simply not playing as much because of the economy and the lack of discretionary funds. Inflation is taking its toll on most of us. Unless you are independently wealthy where prices don’t matter everything is significantly more expensive with a future that is uncertain at best. A flat at best stock market and high interest rates aren’t helping either.
It's really funny that you wrote this. I went to my local poker room on Friday, and when I pulled up in the front parking lot, there were an ample amount of open spots left. Quite unusual for this venue on a Friday night, I actually texted my buddy and said "We must be headed into a recession, theres parking spots open at the poker room 🤣"
Sellers languish at the tetanus level on eBay. Filled-P and no-mint-mark P clads
are not selling. There is no lack of gas-bubbled DDO DDR off-center zincolns sitting in flips. Demand for mint error parking lot, acid-dipped, dime planchet, aluminum cents is abysmal. People aren’t buying them.
They’re helping me.
Short duration treasuries, mmkt funds, CDs, and quality corporate bonds are paying yields I never thought I’d see again. Of course those not in the IRA or Roth accounts will generate a bigger tax bill next year….but in the meantime this is providing extra funds for coins, etc.
Prices still seem strong in the areas that I focus on. Buying at or near Greysheet bid is wishful thinking and if you try to do that you either:
a. won't purchase much or
b. will not end up with high quality coins.
I buy for the long run and 99% of my coins have done very well over time, so I'm not worried. I only own one or two that I feel 'buried' in. Besides, when you sell it's about NET profit and not individual profit.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
@DelawareDoons said:
Observations from myself and other dealers local to Philly that I do business with;
Bullion sales sharply down.
Folks are selling coins/bullion more now than they have in a while, sign of economic softness.
Quality material still flies.
Fresh to market stuff is also super easy to move.
Old holders remain hot, hot, hot. Especially with CAC. I haven't added a coin to the core personal collection in months.
Casual observation; All the folks that started dealing during Covid are having a tough time adjusting to the new market dynamic. You can't buy at sheet on generic-ish stuff and make a profit these days. That was the coin market on easy mode. I'm very interested to see how that group evolves with the new dynamic, which seems much more akin to the dynamic of 4 years ago, where sheet is what your end buyers wanna pay for the vast majority of material. It should cause a few to drop out and force consolidation, with a much smaller group of winners emerging to herald in the rise of next generation of dealers.
Nailed it, especially your last paragraph. One of the things that prompted me to discuss this topic was in fact just that, saw some YNs on Facebook advertising that they were dumping material below cost, and below sheet. There is a whole new crop of dealers that were created by the covid bull run, and until recently they would be fairly safe buying at greysheet and selling halfway between sheet and cdn. Now, I look at the greysheet on some of these coins, which likely moved upwards over the past couple years, and the comps aren't there to support it. If I go to offer on a group of coins, some of the better stuff I can still offer sheet or slightly more, but with others I find myself having to offer 10 back of bid or even worse in some cases. These younger kids who weren't well capitalized to begin with, may find themself in a precarious situation if/when they get caught with their pants down.
@Walkerguy21D said:
** high interest rates aren’t helping either.**
They’re helping me.
Short duration treasuries, mmkt funds, CDs, and quality corporate bonds are paying yields I never thought I’d see again. Of course those not in the IRA or Roth accounts will generate a bigger tax bill next year….but in the meantime this is providing extra funds for coins, etc.
For me it pays the interest on my mortgage. I've got a 2.75% mortgage and my bank account paying over 4% so I'm using one to pay the other. I forgot the term for that but it's an unusual situation for sure.
I've been considering buying an expensive better date gold coin but I'm worried it's value would drop after I buy it. The price has roughly doubled in the last year or two so I'm holding off....it looks to be something I'd like and they don't come around very often so it's a difficult situation.
How are things looking from where you are seated?
Home heating fuel is $4 bucks a gallon and we haven't even entered the heating season, 87 octane is also $4 bucks a gallon. My bank is offering auto loans at 10%, regardless of your credit or whether the vehicle is used or new. They're actually writing loans at 10% and the buyers couldn't be happier.
@Walkerguy21D said:
** high interest rates aren’t helping either.**
They’re helping me.
Short duration treasuries, mmkt funds, CDs, and quality corporate bonds are paying yields I never thought I’d see again. Of course those not in the IRA or Roth accounts will generate a bigger tax bill next year….but in the meantime this is providing extra funds for coins, etc.
For me it pays the interest on my mortgage. I've got a 2.75% mortgage and my bank account paying over 4% so I'm using one to pay the other. I forgot the term for that but it's an unusual situation for sure.
I've been considering buying an expensive better date gold coin but I'm worried it's value would drop after I buy it. The price has roughly doubled in the last year or two so I'm holding off....it looks to be something I'd like and they don't come around very often so it's a difficult situation.
jom
Ive had some cash on the sidelines for a while and I just moved everything over to SPAXX for 5%, unfortunately i bought my house when interest rates were creeping up and had to buy down may rate to 5% so its a wash. Oh well, 5% is still amazing in the meantime for no risk!
As to your considerations for better date gold, its always good to be vigilant of value and try to buy smart when you're spending a lot of money, but don't let the opportunity pass you by when you see a REAL winner that you have to have. Some of the coins I thought that I was overpaying for at one time turned out to be worthwhile purchases, and subsequently i've had people offer to pay me handsomely for them.
I will also add, while there are some issues that have nearly doubled in the past couple year, but I still think theres value in other issues (some early federal gold, some branch mint double eagles) that didn't see crazy price appreciation during the run up, maybe 10-20%, with relatively stable price charts over the past 10-15 years.
Sometimes I buy lots of generic double eagles or bullion at wholesale if there a spread to be made. I participate in the hobby from several different angles, and I have a lot of fun doing it that way.
I infer a lot of collectors "deal on the side" if for no other reason that to (partly) fund coins they want for their collection. It's a sensible approach.
From @jom :
** For me it pays the interest on my mortgage. I've got a 2.75% mortgage and my bank account paying over 4% so I'm using one to pay the other. I forgot the term for that but it's an unusual situation for sure.**
Arbitrage may be the term you are looking for…and good for you!
My youngest daughter and hubby bought a nice home a couple years ago and locked in 3.5% for 30 years. She wanted to use the proceeds from her condo sale to pay down the mortgage…NO! That mortgage is gold!
For those that think these are tough economic times, not sure if you remember 2008/09. I was laid off with the unemployment rate at 15%. Hundreds of people were competing for the few jobs being posted. I sold off my Seated and Barber half collections, actually at a profit, to keep up the house payments, college tuition for kids, etc.
My wife has never again complained about my coins!
@Walkerguy21D said:
From @jom :
** For me it pays the interest on my mortgage. I've got a 2.75% mortgage and my bank account paying over 4% so I'm using one to pay the other. I forgot the term for that but it's an unusual situation for sure.**
Arbitrage may be the term you are looking for…and good for you!
My youngest daughter and hubby bought a nice home a couple years ago and locked in 3.5% for 30 years. She wanted to use the proceeds from her condo sale to pay down the mortgage…NO! That mortgage is gold!
For those that think these are tough economic times, not sure if you remember 2008/09. I was laid off with the unemployment rate at 15%. Hundreds of people were competing for the few jobs being posted. I sold off my Seated and Barber half collections, actually at a profit, to keep up the house payments, college tuition for kids, etc.
My wife has never again complained about my coins!
yeah, "arbitrage" was the term I had forgot.
Mortgage at 2.75% is GOLD...I mean what would the bank do if I paid off the mortgage (which I can do right now)? They'd turn around put that money into some 6% (or more) mortgage to someone else. So why can't I do that (or at least something similar)?
This is getting too far off topic but since there are a bunch of comments about it, it's worth noting that you need to subtract income taxes from fixed income dividends. Depending on your tax bracket and whether or not the investment is subject to state or local income taxes, the return could be quite a bit less than the headline number.
Sometimes I buy lots of generic double eagles or bullion at wholesale if there a spread to be made. I participate in the hobby from several different angles, and I have a lot of fun doing it that way.
I infer a lot of collectors "deal on the side" if for no other reason that to (partly) fund coins they want for their collection. It's a sensible approach.
Exactly. Any profits go towards more coins, and when I don't make any money it was still a good learning experience. Furthermore, I think that selling some coins every now and then is equally as important as buying, beyond profit. Not every coin I buy has a lifelong spot in my collection, sometimes I prefer the "catch and release" approach when I know I bought right. There are numerous benefits, including but not limited to-
Being able to handle more coins in general, which is more fun and always helps with my grading skills. If I only waited to buy coins I would never sell, I would only get to buy 1 or 2 coins a year at most.
Sharpens my buying/negotiating skills. I get to see if I made any mistakes with the purchase, whether paying too much or ignoring a defect that puts a damper on resale/liquidity.
Cultivating more relationships. Whether it's a new dealer or another like minded collector, networking is important and any type of connection could prove to be worthwhile later. I may find a dealer that consistently offers strong money for a certain type of material, he becomes my go to guy for that stuff. Maybe I become friendly with a collector I sell a coin to, and in the future he gives me first shot at a special coin in his collection when he's ready to sell. possibilities are endless.
Part of the trouble moving forward isn't about having the right coins, it's about having the right sticker on your coins. Market dynamics are placing more of a "premium" on that than on the actual coin encapsulated. There's also the presumption that everything has been "tried" at one or more of the sticker houses. It's all too much for me to navigate.
Why do you think there's a declining collector base?
Mainly just age and it's associated issues. There are other reasons that I think are contributing to fewer collectors such as lack of coin usage (Gen Z'ers use very little change as electronic payments are the way they conduct business) , high entry prices of nice coins that would take from the disposable dollar pool, etc. amongst other things. For example exceptionally long running series such as the Lincoln Cent, Roosevelt dime, etc. make it difficult to feel a sense of accomplishment for completing a series as it just goes on and one while requiring a greater pocketbook commitment. Of course I have no empirical data to back these things up, just my opinion based on observations.
K
You misunderstand my question, or I wasn't clear. I see no evidence of a declining number of collectors. They have changed venues, but I see no evidence of an actual decrease.
Why do you think there's a declining collector base?
Mainly just age and it's associated issues. There are other reasons that I think are contributing to fewer collectors such as lack of coin usage (Gen Z'ers use very little change as electronic payments are the way they conduct business) , high entry prices of nice coins that would take from the disposable dollar pool, etc. amongst other things. For example exceptionally long running series such as the Lincoln Cent, Roosevelt dime, etc. make it difficult to feel a sense of accomplishment for completing a series as it just goes on and one while requiring a greater pocketbook commitment. Of course I have no empirical data to back these things up, just my opinion based on observations.
K
You misunderstand my question, or I wasn't clear. I see no evidence of a declining number of collectors. They have changed venues, but I see no evidence of an actual decrease.
Neither do I, In fact i'm often surprised by the number of budding young collectors on social media and at coin shows. It would appear that many of them dabble more in the world coin markets, where the value proposition makes more sense to them and their budget.
Why do you think there's a declining collector base?
Mainly just age and it's associated issues. There are other reasons that I think are contributing to fewer collectors such as lack of coin usage (Gen Z'ers use very little change as electronic payments are the way they conduct business) , high entry prices of nice coins that would take from the disposable dollar pool, etc. amongst other things. For example exceptionally long running series such as the Lincoln Cent, Roosevelt dime, etc. make it difficult to feel a sense of accomplishment for completing a series as it just goes on and one while requiring a greater pocketbook commitment. Of course I have no empirical data to back these things up, just my opinion based on observations.
K
You misunderstand my question, or I wasn't clear. I see no evidence of a declining number of collectors. They have changed venues, but I see no evidence of an actual decrease.
Neither do I, In fact i'm often surprised by the number of budding young collectors on social media and at coin shows. It would appear that many of them dabble more in the world coin markets, where the value proposition makes more sense to them and their budget.
Yes, I think there's an evolution in venues and changes in interests, but the number of collectors doesn't seem to have decreased.
I've noticed that early dollars have cooled quite a bit. Recent auction results for collector grade dollars are quite a bit less than what they were a year ago, so I have been able to actually add to my collection again.
All year long the few moderns that I am still looking for, when they finally show up at auction, sell for very strong prices often well above my bids. I have been bidding above prior auction sales and most price guides, and still lose nearly everything I try for.
Very low population (pops less than 50 or so) moderns in the higher or the highest grades are still in demand by a few very serious collectors. Things may be softening in other areas, but not the coins I am trying for.
@NeophyteNumismatist said:
a market downturn will only mean that I can buy better coins.
>
>
And to add to this:
I’m not sure about a coin bull market but I’m old enough to have lived through bull markets, in other areas of the economy, when they turn bearish.
Sustained bull markets often draw in a lot of “new,” inexperienced people that wants to participate in making “quick cash,” and will often over leverage themselves to buy more and more.
>
Then when things turn bearish, as like a “herd mentality,” the buyer’s suddenly become seller’s to get out before the sky falls, sometimes taking huge losses!
I’ve always thought this is counterintuitive. I’m more interested in buying when prices are falling, as in the “buy low and sell high” mentality.
In some coins that I have purchased this year, I have certainly bought some at a higher price point than I would have liked, but not because I’ve been caught up in all the euphoria of a bull market, but rather to get particularly nice coins that were fresh to market, that might not come along again for a long time, if at all ( primarily because they’re also generally low mintage issues.)
Now I’m not expecting the bottom to fall out of my series and tons of nice examples to hit the market but I’ll certainly be ready to buy on any dips, should the right coins come along!😉👍
I'm primarily a collector; rarely sell. It's my observation the quality key coins are still demanding strong prices. I'm still watching for quality coins in my swimlane but either they are often strongly priced or just not available in the grades or quality I'm seeking, so I haven't stretched for any coin in a few months.
I will say that the state of the economy has weighed on my trigger pulling, especially my last large purchase back in June; no regrets though and I'm glad I eventually pulled the trigger.
Collecting for me isn't necessarily to make money but first to enjoy the fun of the hobby and second to diversify my portfolio.
According to my ebay sales reports, my sales in this 31 day period compared to prior period are down 40%.. Which was already down around 30%. This quarter is still up considerably from the previous quarter. So a bit of a roller coaster I suppose. I have had an increase in sales on my website, so sales are not down quite that much, but still down. No real way of knowing if those sales were people who would have purchased on ebay but found the lower prices on my website. I agree with what @DeplorableDan and @DelawareDoons illuded to. The tree is being shaken and new dealers, or dealers who are no used to red arrows in the price guides may get scared out. This is not my primary source of income, so I'm not really worried.
I have accepted some offers recently that either gave me a small loss, or got me out even on stale coins. Time to build up some cash for the potential lower prices.
@Goldminers said:
All year long the few moderns that I am still looking for, when they finally show up at auction, sell for very strong prices often well above my bids. I have been bidding above prior auction sales and most price guides, and still lose nearly everything I try for.
Very low population (pops less than 50 or so) moderns in the higher or the highest grades are still in demand by a few very serious collectors. Things may be softening in other areas, but not the coins I am trying for.
I have not seen nearly as much weakness in high end moderns as in the more generic stuff. Indeed, very high end appears to be still firm however this is a little outside my experience. I assume the services remain tight.
I expect the excess supply in generic moderns to be worked off very quickly because demand appears to be continuing to increase.
Comments
The sky is falling...
Yes I guess a bit. But the bigger drawdown for me has been higher coin prices. They have slowly spiraled up over the last few years in the areas I collect and can afford (think mid-MS Morgans etc. and G-VF keys) and have gotten to the point that the number of items I can purchase with my annual coin budget has been reduced quite a bit. This despite a declining collector base!
I used to always be able to pick something up at a show with enthusiasm but now probably 50% of the time leave a show with nothing.
K
Online has been soft (if not outright horrible) shows can vary. One big spender customer can literally make ones show. A bad show - Gross Margin from sales less show expense negative. A friend who sets up at a local National Show (lots of competition big gun out of town dealers) accounts for the $300+ table fee as advertising expense (opportunity hand out his business cards).
I feel the market is weak due to economic conditions, uncertainty. Money is really tight for people right now. People are scared…..But with strong retail clients (well heeled private investors) I am finding good yardage.
Unless can buy the US coins right (example -10 pct behind CDN Bid - not a buyer). I have more than enough inventory fill my cases at shows. US slabbed coins seem a bit over priced to me vs equivalent low pop world slabbed coins which are seeing strong demand. Considering dropping my offers on US to 20pct behind bid due to current market conditions.
I believe it’s more likely the market will have downward correction than up. Just find a good angle and work it. My mantra buy low / sell high, don’t let them (griefers, tirekickers) bug you, don’t get buried in it, and keep inventory level solid.
We're at the lowest point in the four year cycle. Next year there will be lots of icing and gravy but little cake or meat. After that we can look forward to lower lows for most of us.
Moderns, at least generic ones have softened substantially but this has nothing to do with demand or the election cycle probably and much more to do with being a victims of circumstances and their own success. The huge price increases have led to increased supply available for sale and the degradation caused by storage is bringing large amounts out of the woodwork.
My target market is Seated Coins in the 200 to 400 dollar range. Two years ago a group calling itself the Stephenville group paid wildly high premiums for material in this market. (I personally tracked over 300 coins they set the new highest price paid for.) Since then the price points have gotten a little lower but any eye appealing coins that come on the market tend to sell for 20 to 50 percent more than CDN. James
Observations from myself and other dealers local to Philly that I do business with;
Bullion sales sharply down.
Folks are selling coins/bullion more now than they have in a while, sign of economic softness.
Quality material still flies.
Fresh to market stuff is also super easy to move.
Old holders remain hot, hot, hot. Especially with CAC. I haven't added a coin to the core personal collection in months.
Casual observation; All the folks that started dealing during Covid are having a tough time adjusting to the new market dynamic. You can't buy at sheet on generic-ish stuff and make a profit these days. That was the coin market on easy mode. I'm very interested to see how that group evolves with the new dynamic, which seems much more akin to the dynamic of 4 years ago, where sheet is what your end buyers wanna pay for the vast majority of material. It should cause a few to drop out and force consolidation, with a much smaller group of winners emerging to herald in the rise of next generation of dealers.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Why do you think there's a declining collector base?
Best indicator of "market conditions" is when the subject gets traction and a whole lot of folks start asking about
.....MARKET CONDITIONS......
I play a lot of casino poker. Poker and the numismatic market are obviously very different but there are also similarities. The poker action especially the bigger games in LA are drying up. The casual, recreational players who the games are built on are simply not playing as much because of the economy and the lack of discretionary funds. Inflation is taking its toll on most of us. Unless you are independently wealthy where prices don’t matter everything is significantly more expensive with a future that is uncertain at best. A flat at best stock market and high interest rates aren’t helping either.
A bit ironic that you are buying the most expensive grade of fuel.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
That’s what my car requires and I think most of us follow the manufacturer’s recommendation. 87 octane is still $6/gallon.
Just filled up today at $3.95 a gallon for 91 here. Crazy to see how much you are paying there.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Post reminded me of the 70's....
@MFeld pegged it above. What he said.
Mainly just age and it's associated issues. There are other reasons that I think are contributing to fewer collectors such as lack of coin usage (Gen Z'ers use very little change as electronic payments are the way they conduct business) , high entry prices of nice coins that would take from the disposable dollar pool, etc. amongst other things. For example exceptionally long running series such as the Lincoln Cent, Roosevelt dime, etc. make it difficult to feel a sense of accomplishment for completing a series as it just goes on and one while requiring a greater pocketbook commitment. Of course I have no empirical data to back these things up, just my opinion based on observations.
K
Who ever said anything about worrying? That was not the narrative at all, this was just an open discussion about market conditions in which I wanted to hear others experience, opinions, or insights. I've already stated that I would welcome, with open arms, any type of pullback in prices so that I can buy some of the pieces that have escaped my reach at favorable numbers.
As far as your definitions of "collector' or "dealer", you can label me however you please. I get an immense amount of joy from hunting the coins that appeal to me, and I have several coins I plan to hold for a long time. Some of my other coins are lovely, but if I was offered healthy profit and I don't see a compelling reason to keep them, off they go. Sometimes I buy coins from collector friends who want to sell and I think I can offer better numbers than they would get on the bourse. Sometimes I buy lots of generic double eagles or bullion at wholesale if there a spread to be made. I participate in the hobby from several different angles, and I have a lot of fun doing it that way.
Regardless of what I am, I think the market strength topic is worthy of discussion, even if it's more pertinent to the dealer side. I agree that whether the market is strong or weak is not inherently good or bad, but having the awareness and aptitude to adjust your strategies in an evolving market is a useful skill for all involved. As a collector, I might ignore some of the exuberant comps that appear to be outliers from 2022 auctions for coins that I thought went for way too much money. As a dealer, I might have to lower my expectations for some of the stale generics that i've been trying to sell for 3 months ago's prices, when its clear that todays prices are a bit lower. Discourse about any and all things coin related is fun, for me anyway, and I see no benefit in just putting our heads in the sand.
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In times of market declines what is defined as "quality" tightens considerably. Is this is what is happening right now?
It's really funny that you wrote this. I went to my local poker room on Friday, and when I pulled up in the front parking lot, there were an ample amount of open spots left. Quite unusual for this venue on a Friday night, I actually texted my buddy and said "We must be headed into a recession, theres parking spots open at the poker room 🤣"
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Sellers languish at the tetanus level on eBay. Filled-P and no-mint-mark P clads
are not selling. There is no lack of gas-bubbled DDO DDR off-center zincolns sitting in flips. Demand for mint error parking lot, acid-dipped, dime planchet, aluminum cents is abysmal. People aren’t buying them.
** high interest rates aren’t helping either.**
They’re helping me.
Short duration treasuries, mmkt funds, CDs, and quality corporate bonds are paying yields I never thought I’d see again. Of course those not in the IRA or Roth accounts will generate a bigger tax bill next year….but in the meantime this is providing extra funds for coins, etc.
Prices still seem strong in the areas that I focus on. Buying at or near Greysheet bid is wishful thinking and if you try to do that you either:
a. won't purchase much or
b. will not end up with high quality coins.
I buy for the long run and 99% of my coins have done very well over time, so I'm not worried. I only own one or two that I feel 'buried' in. Besides, when you sell it's about NET profit and not individual profit.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Nailed it, especially your last paragraph. One of the things that prompted me to discuss this topic was in fact just that, saw some YNs on Facebook advertising that they were dumping material below cost, and below sheet. There is a whole new crop of dealers that were created by the covid bull run, and until recently they would be fairly safe buying at greysheet and selling halfway between sheet and cdn. Now, I look at the greysheet on some of these coins, which likely moved upwards over the past couple years, and the comps aren't there to support it. If I go to offer on a group of coins, some of the better stuff I can still offer sheet or slightly more, but with others I find myself having to offer 10 back of bid or even worse in some cases. These younger kids who weren't well capitalized to begin with, may find themself in a precarious situation if/when they get caught with their pants down.
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For me it pays the interest on my mortgage. I've got a 2.75% mortgage and my bank account paying over 4% so I'm using one to pay the other. I forgot the term for that but it's an unusual situation for sure.
I've been considering buying an expensive better date gold coin but I'm worried it's value would drop after I buy it. The price has roughly doubled in the last year or two so I'm holding off....it looks to be something I'd like and they don't come around very often so it's a difficult situation.
jom
How are things looking from where you are seated?
Home heating fuel is $4 bucks a gallon and we haven't even entered the heating season, 87 octane is also $4 bucks a gallon. My bank is offering auto loans at 10%, regardless of your credit or whether the vehicle is used or new. They're actually writing loans at 10% and the buyers couldn't be happier.
Ive had some cash on the sidelines for a while and I just moved everything over to SPAXX for 5%, unfortunately i bought my house when interest rates were creeping up and had to buy down may rate to 5% so its a wash. Oh well, 5% is still amazing in the meantime for no risk!
As to your considerations for better date gold, its always good to be vigilant of value and try to buy smart when you're spending a lot of money, but don't let the opportunity pass you by when you see a REAL winner that you have to have. Some of the coins I thought that I was overpaying for at one time turned out to be worthwhile purchases, and subsequently i've had people offer to pay me handsomely for them.
I will also add, while there are some issues that have nearly doubled in the past couple year, but I still think theres value in other issues (some early federal gold, some branch mint double eagles) that didn't see crazy price appreciation during the run up, maybe 10-20%, with relatively stable price charts over the past 10-15 years.
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Covid Sales where crazy good.
Saved a ton of cash.
Bought a ton of eye appealing coin inventory.
Bought our first house. Still had a pile of cash.
Started spending cash on fixing up the house and expensive bonsai.
Had a small reserve.
Our 30 year old garage door just gave out. New installed one over 5K.
I just ran out of cash with that.
Anyone wanna buy some coins?
You gotta love our free market economy and capitalism. I get a kick out of your $0,000.97 pricing. A little like gas prices with the 9/10th.
I thought about it, I laughed about it, them my wallet said forget about it! 😉
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
It is marketing.
When clients see the price and photography on eBay, they instantly know who is offering the coin.
Sometimes I buy lots of generic double eagles or bullion at wholesale if there a spread to be made. I participate in the hobby from several different angles, and I have a lot of fun doing it that way.
I infer a lot of collectors "deal on the side" if for no other reason that to (partly) fund coins they want for their collection. It's a sensible approach.
From @jom :
** For me it pays the interest on my mortgage. I've got a 2.75% mortgage and my bank account paying over 4% so I'm using one to pay the other. I forgot the term for that but it's an unusual situation for sure.**
Arbitrage may be the term you are looking for…and good for you!
My youngest daughter and hubby bought a nice home a couple years ago and locked in 3.5% for 30 years. She wanted to use the proceeds from her condo sale to pay down the mortgage…NO! That mortgage is gold!
For those that think these are tough economic times, not sure if you remember 2008/09. I was laid off with the unemployment rate at 15%. Hundreds of people were competing for the few jobs being posted. I sold off my Seated and Barber half collections, actually at a profit, to keep up the house payments, college tuition for kids, etc.
My wife has never again complained about my coins!
yeah, "arbitrage" was the term I had forgot.
Mortgage at 2.75% is GOLD...I mean what would the bank do if I paid off the mortgage (which I can do right now)? They'd turn around put that money into some 6% (or more) mortgage to someone else. So why can't I do that (or at least something similar)?
jom
This is getting too far off topic but since there are a bunch of comments about it, it's worth noting that you need to subtract income taxes from fixed income dividends. Depending on your tax bracket and whether or not the investment is subject to state or local income taxes, the return could be quite a bit less than the headline number.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Exactly. Any profits go towards more coins, and when I don't make any money it was still a good learning experience. Furthermore, I think that selling some coins every now and then is equally as important as buying, beyond profit. Not every coin I buy has a lifelong spot in my collection, sometimes I prefer the "catch and release" approach when I know I bought right. There are numerous benefits, including but not limited to-
Being able to handle more coins in general, which is more fun and always helps with my grading skills. If I only waited to buy coins I would never sell, I would only get to buy 1 or 2 coins a year at most.
Sharpens my buying/negotiating skills. I get to see if I made any mistakes with the purchase, whether paying too much or ignoring a defect that puts a damper on resale/liquidity.
Cultivating more relationships. Whether it's a new dealer or another like minded collector, networking is important and any type of connection could prove to be worthwhile later. I may find a dealer that consistently offers strong money for a certain type of material, he becomes my go to guy for that stuff. Maybe I become friendly with a collector I sell a coin to, and in the future he gives me first shot at a special coin in his collection when he's ready to sell. possibilities are endless.
Edit-grammar
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Excellent points @DeplorableDan
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
He does that a lot.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Part of the trouble moving forward isn't about having the right coins, it's about having the right sticker on your coins. Market dynamics are placing more of a "premium" on that than on the actual coin encapsulated. There's also the presumption that everything has been "tried" at one or more of the sticker houses. It's all too much for me to navigate.
You misunderstand my question, or I wasn't clear. I see no evidence of a declining number of collectors. They have changed venues, but I see no evidence of an actual decrease.
Neither do I, In fact i'm often surprised by the number of budding young collectors on social media and at coin shows. It would appear that many of them dabble more in the world coin markets, where the value proposition makes more sense to them and their budget.
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Yes, I think there's an evolution in venues and changes in interests, but the number of collectors doesn't seem to have decreased.
There seems to be plenty of demand for the coins I seek. In my tiny world, I see no abatement of the “market”.
I've noticed that early dollars have cooled quite a bit. Recent auction results for collector grade dollars are quite a bit less than what they were a year ago, so I have been able to actually add to my collection again.
a market downturn will only mean that I can buy better coins.
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Deals seem Katie bar the door on seated material - strong auc competition (aggressive bidders).
All year long the few moderns that I am still looking for, when they finally show up at auction, sell for very strong prices often well above my bids. I have been bidding above prior auction sales and most price guides, and still lose nearly everything I try for.
Very low population (pops less than 50 or so) moderns in the higher or the highest grades are still in demand by a few very serious collectors. Things may be softening in other areas, but not the coins I am trying for.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
I haven’t been seeing any bargains in the graded Plats that I need as upgrades.
I knew it would happen.
This is from a good friend of mine who also happens to be a dealer.
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And to add to this:
I’m not sure about a coin bull market but I’m old enough to have lived through bull markets, in other areas of the economy, when they turn bearish.
Sustained bull markets often draw in a lot of “new,” inexperienced people that wants to participate in making “quick cash,” and will often over leverage themselves to buy more and more.
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Then when things turn bearish, as like a “herd mentality,” the buyer’s suddenly become seller’s to get out before the sky falls, sometimes taking huge losses!
I’ve always thought this is counterintuitive. I’m more interested in buying when prices are falling, as in the “buy low and sell high” mentality.
In some coins that I have purchased this year, I have certainly bought some at a higher price point than I would have liked, but not because I’ve been caught up in all the euphoria of a bull market, but rather to get particularly nice coins that were fresh to market, that might not come along again for a long time, if at all ( primarily because they’re also generally low mintage issues.)
Now I’m not expecting the bottom to fall out of my series and tons of nice examples to hit the market but I’ll certainly be ready to buy on any dips, should the right coins come along!😉👍
I'm primarily a collector; rarely sell. It's my observation the quality key coins are still demanding strong prices. I'm still watching for quality coins in my swimlane but either they are often strongly priced or just not available in the grades or quality I'm seeking, so I haven't stretched for any coin in a few months.
I will say that the state of the economy has weighed on my trigger pulling, especially my last large purchase back in June; no regrets though and I'm glad I eventually pulled the trigger.
Collecting for me isn't necessarily to make money but first to enjoy the fun of the hobby and second to diversify my portfolio.
USAF (Ret.) 1985 - 2005. E-4B Aircraft Maintenance Crew Chief and Contracting Officer.
My current Registry sets:
✓ Everyman Mint State Carson City Morgan Dollars (1878 – 1893)
✓ Everyman Mint State Lincoln Cents (1909 – 1958)
✓ Morgan Dollar GSA Hoard (1878 – 1891)
According to my ebay sales reports, my sales in this 31 day period compared to prior period are down 40%.. Which was already down around 30%. This quarter is still up considerably from the previous quarter. So a bit of a roller coaster I suppose. I have had an increase in sales on my website, so sales are not down quite that much, but still down. No real way of knowing if those sales were people who would have purchased on ebay but found the lower prices on my website. I agree with what @DeplorableDan and @DelawareDoons illuded to. The tree is being shaken and new dealers, or dealers who are no used to red arrows in the price guides may get scared out. This is not my primary source of income, so I'm not really worried.
I have accepted some offers recently that either gave me a small loss, or got me out even on stale coins. Time to build up some cash for the potential lower prices.
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I have not seen nearly as much weakness in high end moderns as in the more generic stuff. Indeed, very high end appears to be still firm however this is a little outside my experience. I assume the services remain tight.
I expect the excess supply in generic moderns to be worked off very quickly because demand appears to be continuing to increase.