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Current market conditions- How are things looking from where you are seated?

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  • CoinscratchCoinscratch Posts: 8,502 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cladking said:

    @Goldminers said:
    All year long the few moderns that I am still looking for, when they finally show up at auction, sell for very strong prices often well above my bids. I have been bidding above prior auction sales and most price guides, and still lose nearly everything I try for.

    Very low population (pops less than 50 or so) moderns in the higher or the highest grades are still in demand by a few very serious collectors. Things may be softening in other areas, but not the coins I am trying for.

    I have not seen nearly as much weakness in high end moderns as in the more generic stuff. Indeed, very high end appears to be still firm however this is a little outside my experience. I assume the services remain tight.

    I expect the excess supply in generic moderns to be worked off very quickly because demand appears to be continuing to increase.

    Nice report by all and I would say mixed bag depending on where you sit. I'll assume moderns bring more new stuff to market as to why they're doing so well along with the new gen bringing new interest, especially in the highest grades (=winning) Versus the old guard selling the old card that may not carry as much interest...unless of course yours is tops.

    And Yes, the market is showing us what it really is. It's what happens when the food is rationed and instincts takes over.
    Survival of the fittest means all of those MS66s are gonna have to go bye bye for real cheap. And if you want that 67 your gonna have to pay up for it. Buying coins has consequences :D

  • 2ndCharter2ndCharter Posts: 1,651 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just checked - nope, no change - on the material in which I'm interested, eBay sellers want the same goofy prices that they wanted last year.

    Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA

  • CoinscratchCoinscratch Posts: 8,502 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:

    The Mrs says I ought to sell out/close shop/ and stay on the farm. ( Ohhhhh but that sounds like work).

    Yeah it does…

  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,522 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I can't help but wonder if part of the reason for the weakness is just macroeconomic conditions notably the resistance of metals to higher prices as well as the evaporation of premiums. Combined with general weakness in the stock market and inflation it is depressing the markets.

    Obviously such conditions can turn on a dime.

    Tempus fugit.
  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 25, 2023 9:07PM

    I don’t think most of us online sellers have goofy prices. I do think a lot of goofballs out there who are broke / won’t pay the money. You don’t think we’re in it for free do you?

    Coins & Currency
  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This sold at GC last night. Price Guide shows 3 CAC @ $3440 & 11+1 PCGS @ $3,000 with $3,750 for a plus.

    Reserve was $1,300. Eleven bidders. SOLD for $4,837.50 with buyer's fee.

    It appears there are still some strong players at the deep end of the pool even for a MS65 coin. Did bidders feel it could upgrade to a 3 CAC MS66 @ $4,750 even though it only had a green sticker???

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 25, 2023 9:07PM

    CAC CPG $3440 / I think couple rich bidders got in bid war. Probably chump change to them. No and he did not put gold sticker on it

    Coins & Currency
  • lermishlermish Posts: 2,609 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Another GC auction from last night but down market from that beautiful Barber and a bit more esoteric. This Hawaiian Dala sold for $1000 with the juice. It has really nice details and the vast majority of Dalas are cleaned but that is a very strong price for a coin that is fine but certainly not problem free.

  • logger7logger7 Posts: 8,423 ✭✭✭✭✭

    October is usually not the best month for the markets; coins will follow that. There's a glut of material out there, I believe that a correction is likely. I was listening to a business channel commenting on the gold chart as bearish even with the significant inflation and the bull market in oil which is atypical. Consider on common dollars: in Unc. you can't get them for less than $50 each usually, certified MS60 and up coins start in the sixties, so with certification you are losing money even with Anacs and Icg certification.

  • CuprinkorCuprinkor Posts: 228 ✭✭✭

    I'm in agreement with Cougar1978's comment as an online seller.
    I'll leave it at that

  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 33,832 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Things are still cooking at Heritage. I got blown completely out of the water when I tried to buy some 19th century mint medals at Heritage. They weren't even certified.

    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 33,423 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cuprinkor said:
    I'm in agreement with Cougar1978's comment as an online seller.
    I'll leave it at that

    Everyone wants to pay less.

    Had a guy yesterday looking at a $99 comic. I sent him an offer at $92. He offered $80. I declined. He said, you offered me $92, how about $85? I said, how about $92? He said, okay.

    No matter what the number is, some people will always counter lower.

    I had a guy last week offer me $100 on a $150 item. I declined. He messaged me and asked if I'd go lower. I said, not now. It's been listed for 2 hours and it's really the lowest price on ebay. He paid full price... after he offered me 2/3 of the ask!!! He obviously had no problem with the price, he just wanted to pay (much) less if he could.

  • jclovescoinsjclovescoins Posts: 1,883 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:
    Another GC auction from last night but down market from that beautiful Barber and a bit more esoteric. This Hawaiian Dala sold for $1000 with the juice. It has really nice details and the vast majority of Dalas are cleaned but that is a very strong price for a coin that is fine but certainly not problem free.

    almost pulled the trigger when you offered it on BST. Weren't you asking $800?
    It looks like a nice one despite the cleaning.

  • FrankHFrankH Posts: 930 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Won't be clear until the "My Slab's Better'n Yours" fiasco settles out.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,006 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Collectors- Have the current economic conditions put a damper on your discretionary spending? SOMEWHAT

    Are you currently buying as per usual or are you in conservative mode? CONSERVATIVE MODE

    Do you notice any lower pricing for the material you're looking for, or have you had any better luck bidding in auctions than you did a year ago? YES

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • jkrkjkrk Posts: 980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    E-Bay seller.. Have hardly sold anything in Sep.

    Bought nothing in September. Outbid on a couple of coins.

    Solution... Close the store for 2 weeks.

    I feel better now.

  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,094 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 26, 2023 2:45PM

    Not sure how to answer the question as there are to many moving parts. I will say that the stuff I buy: pcgs/cac is still going strong at auction and elsewhere. ASE premiums are normal again, pre 33 gold is softer for the common stuff. Cull morgans are down about 25 percent from summer. 90 percent is slower and softer than a year ago. Raw Type coins seems to be selling well if priced correctly and/or slightly discounted. I think there are more sellers then buyers on certain stuff as they need the money for life items like gas, groceries etc... Its tough out there for the average Joe/Jolene...

  • lermishlermish Posts: 2,609 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jclovescoins said:

    @lermish said:
    Another GC auction from last night but down market from that beautiful Barber and a bit more esoteric. This Hawaiian Dala sold for $1000 with the juice. It has really nice details and the vast majority of Dalas are cleaned but that is a very strong price for a coin that is fine but certainly not problem free.

    almost pulled the trigger when you offered it on BST. Weren't you asking $800?
    It looks like a nice one despite the cleaning.

    I don't recall exactly but I did a couple of price reductions to significantly less...maybe I hit a floor of ~$650?

  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,503 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have been looking for an attractive 1795 2 or 3 leaf Flowing Hair Dollar in AU 50 or 53 for many years. Not paying attention to anything else.

    At Long Beach, I actually found three of them. Two had issues. The third was all there for the grade, but it was going for a very large premium. It's a nice coin, and eventually, someone (not me) will ante up for it.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • rte592rte592 Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm not buying much.
    I have a guy that was supposed to come up with 14/15 One ounce silver rounds @ $20 each next coin club meeting, so we wait.

    I'm looking for a couple 12 volt 100ah-200ah lithium batteries for a small off-grid set-up but seems like the market is strong enough and no deals yet to be found.

  • HillbillyCollectorHillbillyCollector Posts: 590 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dollarfan said:
    It is a real possibility that the people who frequent this forum are more knowledgeable and collect the better stuff. The better stuff has NOT seen a downturn because..........it is better.

    >
    >
    Yeah, you see a lot of nice stuff on here. And if you ask for an opinion on a coin, the answers won’t be sugar coated, they will tell you if you got a sorry looking coin.😉

  • jedmjedm Posts: 2,999 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    The Mrs says I ought to sell out/close shop/ and stay on the farm. ( Ohhhhh but that sounds like work).

    No, you can't do that because there's no Keno across the street. :)

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,052 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 4, 2024 1:14PM

    Sales have been strong across the board both coins and currency. The key is does one have at their table what they want. Mexico material both coins and banco notes doing really well. Sold some graded France low pop banknotes super margin realized. Buying it right is key. Looking for Mexico graded Caballito Pesos. Awesome coins, fav. Then the better date USA stuff - A 1926-S graded PCGS MS64 Dollar, a real blazer brought good money too. Looking for 34-S Peace$. The Peace $ Series is a doable series great to invest in. Sold some my USA CACG Classic material too, fairly nice profit margin. Then procured some more.

    Coins & Currency
  • lkeneficlkenefic Posts: 8,155 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well, since last year (when this thread was initiated) it seemed that the higher prices realized brought out better material for what I've been focusing on for the last couple of years... early copper either raw or certified. I was the under bidder on many auctions but managed to get several nice pieces for a Wayte Raymond album.

    Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;

    Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
  • jkrkjkrk Posts: 980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We're the pimple on the elephant. Primarily an E-Bay seller of Double Eagles.

    With gold prices near $2500, our generic (61's, 62's, 63's, 64's) close to worthless for us as a seller.

    We try to buy some generics @ or near melt but understand they will go in inventory as bullion.

    The cost of moving those generic coins without a table is impossible (8-10% E-Bay costs).

    Our somewhat better dates are bid for but again not being in the rare coin biz there are little margins after factoring in our costs so we hold them. No incentive to sell those.

    In 2024 we are buying at a rate of 60% less then we bought in 2021-3.

    All in all, store sales are down 80% this year but... we continue to mark up our inventory so all is not lost.

    When we wish to make sales ... we sell futures to offset the rising prices thus lowering our total gold holdings.

  • lkeneficlkenefic Posts: 8,155 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I also bought a little gold over the past year... "back" when gold was around $2100/oz. At the time, MS65 Saints weren't that much over melt, so that's what I bought. I've more than covered the premium over melt just in the last year...

    Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;

    Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
  • CatbertCatbert Posts: 6,959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Sales have been strong across the board both coins and currency. The key is does one have at their table what they want. Mexico material both coins and banco notes doing really well. Sold some graded France low pop banknotes super margin realized. Buying it right is key. Looking for Mexico graded Caballito Pesos. Awesome coins, fav. Then the better date USA stuff - A 1926-S graded PCGS MS64 Dollar, a real blazer brought good money too. Looking for 34-S Peace$. The Peace $ Series is a doable series great to invest in. Sold some my USA CACG Classic material too, fairly nice profit margin. Then procured some more.

    One year late.....

    "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
  • lermishlermish Posts: 2,609 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Catbert said:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Sales have been strong across the board both coins and currency. The key is does one have at their table what they want. Mexico material both coins and banco notes doing really well. Sold some graded France low pop banknotes super margin realized. Buying it right is key. Looking for Mexico graded Caballito Pesos. Awesome coins, fav. Then the better date USA stuff - A 1926-S graded PCGS MS64 Dollar, a real blazer brought good money too. Looking for 34-S Peace$. The Peace $ Series is a doable series great to invest in. Sold some my USA CACG Classic material too, fairly nice profit margin. Then procured some more.

    One year late.....

    He's improving! Last week it was five years late.

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/13781888#Comment_13781888

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 33,423 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:

    @Catbert said:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Sales have been strong across the board both coins and currency. The key is does one have at their table what they want. Mexico material both coins and banco notes doing really well. Sold some graded France low pop banknotes super margin realized. Buying it right is key. Looking for Mexico graded Caballito Pesos. Awesome coins, fav. Then the better date USA stuff - A 1926-S graded PCGS MS64 Dollar, a real blazer brought good money too. Looking for 34-S Peace$. The Peace $ Series is a doable series great to invest in. Sold some my USA CACG Classic material too, fairly nice profit margin. Then procured some more.

    One year late.....

    He's improving! Last week it was five years late.

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/13781888#Comment_13781888

    Maybe he's just updating his post from last year that said the opposite:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Online has been soft (if not outright horrible) shows can vary. One big spender customer can literally make ones show. A bad show - Gross Margin from sales less show expense negative. A friend who sets up at a local National Show (lots of competition big gun out of town dealers) accounts for the $300+ table fee as advertising expense (opportunity hand out his business cards).

    I feel the market is weak due to economic conditions, uncertainty. Money is really tight for people right now. People are scared…..But with strong retail clients (well heeled private investors) I am finding good yardage.

    Unless can buy the US coins right (example -10 pct behind CDN Bid - not a buyer). I have more than enough inventory fill my cases at shows. US slabbed coins seem a bit over priced to me vs equivalent low pop world slabbed coins which are seeing strong demand. Considering dropping my offers on US to 20pct behind bid due to current market conditions.

    I believe it’s more likely the market will have downward correction than up. Just find a good angle and work it. My mantra buy low / sell high, don’t let them (griefers, tirekickers) bug you, don’t get buried in it, and keep inventory level solid.

  • knovak1976knovak1976 Posts: 299 ✭✭✭

    @skier07 said:

    …….

    That’s what my car requires and I think most of us follow the manufacturer’s recommendation. 87 octane is still $6/gallon.

    My Mercedes requires Premium too, but I’ve talked to several top Mercedes/auto mechanics and they said mid range gas was perfectly fine in this day and age. They know more about it than me and my last few visits to the shop resulted in good health checks for my vehicle. So who am I to argue? 😉. BTW….i just returned from a few days in England and REGULAR was $7.27 a gallon! 😳😉

  • knovak1976knovak1976 Posts: 299 ✭✭✭

    Sooooo…are there going to be any fireside sales at the Tampa coin show next week??? 🤔😉

  • JCH22JCH22 Posts: 102 ✭✭✭

    @Catbert said:
    @jmlanzaf Occam's razor indicates that stupid is as stupid does. He could have stated that he was revisiting the thread one year later, but he didn't and his prior behavior indicates cluelessness.

    And if Occam is correct, what does his razor have to say about those who go out of their way to comment on the clueless

  • CatbertCatbert Posts: 6,959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JCH22 said:

    @Catbert said:
    @jmlanzaf Occam's razor indicates that stupid is as stupid does. He could have stated that he was revisiting the thread one year later, but he didn't and his prior behavior indicates cluelessness.

    And if Occam is correct, what does his razor have to say about those who go out of their way to comment on the clueless

    It says I have powerful observation qualities.

    "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
  • BarberianBarberian Posts: 3,442 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JCH22 said:

    @Catbert said:
    @jmlanzaf Occam's razor indicates that stupid is as stupid does. He could have stated that he was revisiting the thread one year later, but he didn't and his prior behavior indicates cluelessness.

    And if Occam is correct, what does his razor have to say about those who go out of their way to comment on the clueless

    His razor says it's inevitable that they will.

    3 rim nicks away from Good
  • JCH22JCH22 Posts: 102 ✭✭✭

    May all those on this thread have the great fortune to never become "clueless" .. .. especially in their senior years,

  • lermishlermish Posts: 2,609 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JCH22 said:
    May all those on this thread have the great fortune to never become "clueless" .. .. especially in their senior years,

    In a vacuum, your comments make sense. Once you've hung around for a bit and been subject to his inanity and realize that he's not a senior, just completely oblivious of the world and everyone around him, you'll realize how out of place your comment is in this particular instance.

  • mr1931Smr1931S Posts: 6,197 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What is the x-axis on that graph?

    Really. The graph says nothing.

    Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein

  • onlyroosiesonlyroosies Posts: 3,292 ✭✭✭✭

    I'm seeing soft for Matte Proof Lincolns, At least compared to PCGS price guide numbers. I've picked up a few recently well under price guide. Won a nice 65+RD from GC last week for 50% of price guide. I'm shaking my head on this one as I just received the coin and its a beauty. I'm going to bottom fish for as long as I keep pulling them up.

  • IkesTIkesT Posts: 2,935 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @mr1931S said:
    What is the x-axis on that graph?

    Really. The graph says nothing.

    Harsche.

  • CoinscratchCoinscratch Posts: 8,502 ✭✭✭✭✭

    As a collector, I’m still in conservative mode while my business sees ups and downs on any given month (and I spend accordingly). Last month was strong following a dead July and I tend to believe things will get busier the closer we get to election depending on the tide.

  • BarberianBarberian Posts: 3,442 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 6, 2024 7:29AM

    @JCH22 said:
    May all those on this thread have the great fortune to never become "clueless" .. .. especially in their senior years,

    Too late.

    I'm just biding my time, waiting for certain coins to come available. Meanwhile, I'm researching DMs and prospecting for cherries. That has revealed new opportunities to explore.

    3 rim nicks away from Good
  • jesbrokenjesbroken Posts: 9,901 ✭✭✭✭✭

    From a very small seller's view, June and July ebay sales were great, then August happened. Worst month ever for me. Many coins I was following to note selling price are still sitting as listed 45 days ago. Unusual for early copper and silver imo. As previously stated, quality coins seemed to continue selling(AU and up) throughout August, many lower grade coins still listed. I'm looking for a slower fall season for myself. While getting asking price, just slower than usual. Nor savvy enough to know how an election might affect the coin market sales.
    Jim


    When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln

    Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
  • On the collector side, nicer things have been easier to buy at better prices. I'm just keeping replaced coins in a spare few PCGS boxes, as it seems the lower grades are much cheaper for now, and probably for the intermediate future. I don't think that the high end should suffer much if at all, rare and difficult coins will attract multiple bids or at least they sure seem to be from my view.

  • logger7logger7 Posts: 8,423 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Every time gold hits new highs we see a similar scenario; the oxygen gets sucked out of the room for the status quo mainstream collectible coins and "humble" certified gold.

  • pointfivezeropointfivezero Posts: 1,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Judging by today's Long Beach show, the hobby is alive and well. Long lines and crowded aisles were the rule of the day. I spent a lot of time at @rarity7 tables and I don't think Noah took a breath all day.

    Tim

  • Jacques_LoungecoqueJacques_Loungecoque Posts: 659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 5, 2024 5:22PM

    @MFeld said:
    It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices. And that many of the rest are somewhat softer. Despite that pull-back in prices, a lot of coins - even very common generic issues - still trade at considerably higher levels than they did just a few years ago. Many collectors and dealers got spoiled by a market that was surprisingly strong in most areas, so the current good conditions don’t seem feel as strong as they otherwise would.

    Mark, how does it feel to be right, not only like 99.5% of the time, but to be so succinct in that correctness??

    And I mean this 100% sincerely. No tongue in cheek, no mockery, total real deal. It cannot be overstated how much you have your finger on the pulse of our little niche. 👍🏻

    Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.

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