Was my 1st show post Covid...
1) felt like all the dealers needed an ethics class. Felt like dealers were just waiting on me to misprice things so they could pounce. Felt like if I quoted an oz of gold for 750$ they would have not hesitated to pay me.
FWIW, if you leave dealers room to make 1-2% on gold bullion, you will be sold out very, very quickly. Leave them no room at all and you'll probably be taking your coins back home.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Neither SVDB cents nor Zeps represents the high end of the market.
They do to the average collector who considers anything more rarer and/or expensive way, way beyond their means.
No. They don't constitute the high end of the market in the context presented because they are not part of the high end of the market that has bifurcated from the rest of the market.
Zeps have languished and continued to slide in price even while inverted Jenny's, the true top of the market, continue to set records. The same with circ SVDBs or 1877 Indian cents which have barely changed price compared to the trophy coins that represent the actual "top of the market" - the sector that has appeared to be immune to marker downturns for 40+ years. .
@sellitstore said:
I went back to the O/P but you continue to nitpick? Are you capable of contributing anything of value to the discussion? If not, we don't need to hear it.
@P0CKETCHANGE said:
Gerry Fortin’s blog was brief and to the point this morning:
There is little to share today. September numismatic sales remain anemic and may hit an end month total not seen since 2019.
Gerry specializes in Seated Liberty coins and is facing stiff competition for collector funds from Hansen's release of Seated Liberties at DLRC.
You’re correct about his specialty, but he has a somewhat diverse inventory. I’ve purchased a few things from him over the years, and none was a seated liberty dime.
Was my 1st show post Covid...
1) felt like all the dealers needed an ethics class. Felt like dealers were just waiting on me to misprice things so they could pounce. Felt like if I quoted an oz of gold for 750$ they would have not hesitated to pay me.
FWIW, if you leave dealers room to make 1-2% on gold bullion, you will be sold out very, very quickly. Leave them no room at all and you'll probably be taking your coins back home.
I left them 5%... I left these dealers plenty of room because I bought right. They still acted like I was inflicting the STIGMATA upon them. I still left the show with a full PCGS blue box with a roll of 5$ commems, roosters etc.... weirdest experience I have ever had.
Maybe it was me. Maybe my anti social was apparent. Idk
@P0CKETCHANGE said:
Gerry Fortin’s blog was brief and to the point this morning:
There is little to share today. September numismatic sales remain anemic and may hit an end month total not seen since 2019.
Gerry specializes in Seated Liberty coins and is facing stiff competition for collector funds from Hansen's release of Seated Liberties at DLRC.
You’re correct about his specialty, but he has a somewhat diverse inventory. I’ve purchased a few things from him over the years, and none was a seated liberty dime.
Was my 1st show post Covid...
1) felt like all the dealers needed an ethics class. Felt like dealers were just waiting on me to misprice things so they could pounce. Felt like if I quoted an oz of gold for 750$ they would have not hesitated to pay me.
FWIW, if you leave dealers room to make 1-2% on gold bullion, you will be sold out very, very quickly. Leave them no room at all and you'll probably be taking your coins back home.
I left them 5%... I left these dealers plenty of room because I bought right. They still acted like I was inflicting the STIGMATA upon them. I still left the show with a full PCGS blue box with a roll of 5$ commems, roosters etc.... weirdest experience I have ever had.
Maybe it was me. Maybe my anti social was apparent. Idk
Anyway.
Some of those dealers may have a cash flow problem but I'm guessing that most of them are concerned that there might be a major downward correction in the price of gold and they would be left holding the bag. A dramatic increase in the price of gold is usually followed by a sudden drop in price. How many here think it will be different this time?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Was my 1st show post Covid...
1) felt like all the dealers needed an ethics class. Felt like dealers were just waiting on me to misprice things so they could pounce. Felt like if I quoted an oz of gold for 750$ they would have not hesitated to pay me.
FWIW, if you leave dealers room to make 1-2% on gold bullion, you will be sold out very, very quickly. Leave them no room at all and you'll probably be taking your coins back home.
I left them 5%... I left these dealers plenty of room because I bought right. They still acted like I was inflicting the STIGMATA upon them. I still left the show with a full PCGS blue box with a roll of 5$ commems, roosters etc.... weirdest experience I have ever had.
Maybe it was me. Maybe my anti social was apparent. Idk
Anyway.
Some of those dealers may have a cash flow problem but I'm guessing that most of them are concerned that there might be a major downward correction in the price of gold and they would be left holding the bag. A dramatic increase in the price of gold is usually followed by a sudden drop in price. How many here think it will be different this time?
Speaking only for myself, I hate to buy gold going into the weekend. It could spike down $50 on Monday. And being the weekend, it's hard to lock in a sale price.
If i had to speculate, I think the show dealers have a similar concern and they are too busy at the show to deal with it. Most small dealers don't buy gold to inventory it. They flip it unless they know they have a customer or a normal weekly sale amount.
I know one dealer who flips 90+% of what comes in and orders gold to supply his bullion buyers. The margins are generally $100 or less making it both risky and expensive to keep a lot on hand.
Was my 1st show post Covid...
1) felt like all the dealers needed an ethics class. Felt like dealers were just waiting on me to misprice things so they could pounce. Felt like if I quoted an oz of gold for 750$ they would have not hesitated to pay me.
FWIW, if you leave dealers room to make 1-2% on gold bullion, you will be sold out very, very quickly. Leave them no room at all and you'll probably be taking your coins back home.
I left them 5%... I left these dealers plenty of room because I bought right. They still acted like I was inflicting the STIGMATA upon them. I still left the show with a full PCGS blue box with a roll of 5$ commems, roosters etc.... weirdest experience I have ever had.
Maybe it was me. Maybe my anti social was apparent. Idk
Anyway.
Just to make sure we're on the same page, are you saying you couldn't find anyone to pay 5% below melt for $5 commems and roosters? The market's probably at 98-99% on the buy side right now, so that would really only leave them 3-4%. Still, 5% below should have been a really easy sale.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@P0CKETCHANGE said:
Gerry Fortin’s blog was brief and to the point this morning:
There is little to share today. September numismatic sales remain anemic and may hit an end month total not seen since 2019.
Gerry specializes in Seated Liberty coins and is facing stiff competition for collector funds from Hansen's release of Seated Liberties at DLRC.
You’re correct about his specialty, but he has a somewhat diverse inventory. I’ve purchased a few things from him over the years, and none was a seated liberty dime.
Seated should be a little softer also because so much has come on the market owing to the value increases. Coupled with the overall softness and you have headwinds.
I do not buy from him but my perception is that the prices are strong for the high quality material. Not a surprise.
Gold itself is knocking on $2,700.....I think in a few months we could be at $3,000 which I thought was likely -- but by 2030.
A year or more ago we were closer to $1,800....we're up almost 50% since then which is putting a powerful floor to the price of gold and all the gold coins that trade off the spot price.
This is a SECULAR move in gold, IMO -- not a cyclical one. Which means a longer bull market with a big increase from a low base. The less rapid the move up, the longer and the higher we will go, IMO.
Pretty soon an MS-65 Saint will have a 3 handle on her without any huge premium. We might already be there.
Gold AGE, Maple leafs, Kangaroos, pandas. Buffalo's, krugs are all bullion.
NOw much of our Libs and Saints are bullion.
We're selling almost nothing on E-Bay. It makes no sense to offer anything but rarer coins. If we wish to sell 62's - 65's, price volatility is too great to offer them at tight margins. Thus we would rather sell them locally as bullion or hedge with futures.
Essentially, we're closed.
We don't sell at shows. If we did and were concerned about buying and risking falling gold prices, we would probably sell a micro gold future (or a multiple) before the weekend which will enable us to buy multiples o 10 0z with no downside risk. The sale would reduce our long inventory thus creating a cost should the futures gap up.
It's definitely a buyers market at this point in time. I have won several auctions lately, where the hammer price ended up being significantly lower than price guide, or historical sales numbers (sometimes about HALF price). This is especially true for lower priced, more common stuff such as graded moderns, US type coins, and even currency.
Sometimes, I get the feeling that lots of folks out there are selling off grandpa's coin collection and taking whatever they can get for it. Great for buyers, but pretty bad for sellers.
After looking at it this morning over coffee analyzing the months results, been getting good buys below bid more than quality retail activity. Agree it’s a buyers market.
I know markets go up and down but I have sold enough coins at this point to tell you this is the results I usually get. If you can find 5 or more of that specific coin for sale at any given time then you can expect to get between 60 to 80 percent of what you paid. (Holding 2 or more years not flipping fast). If it is a coin that takes a month or two to find, you can usually get even money or within 10 percent of that going either way. If you have to spend a year or even years to just find a coin (ugly or attractive) then one of two things will happen. If the market has caught up with the difficulty of finding that date you might double your money or more. If the market has stayed flat you will almost always get your money back but little more and fees may eat any actual profit. i find the coin makes a much bigger difference than the market. James
Yours is a great post @seatedlib3991
Coins don't sell in a vacuum or to robots. They sell to people, specifically collectors (selling to a dealer is just selling to a collector through a middleman). So it all comes down to choice, scarcity and current popularity no matter what part of the cycle the market is in.
Comments
FWIW, if you leave dealers room to make 1-2% on gold bullion, you will be sold out very, very quickly. Leave them no room at all and you'll probably be taking your coins back home.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
No. They don't constitute the high end of the market in the context presented because they are not part of the high end of the market that has bifurcated from the rest of the market.
Zeps have languished and continued to slide in price even while inverted Jenny's, the true top of the market, continue to set records. The same with circ SVDBs or 1877 Indian cents which have barely changed price compared to the trophy coins that represent the actual "top of the market" - the sector that has appeared to be immune to marker downturns for 40+ years. .
Meh. I guess only 75% agreement with him wasn't sufficient.
You’re correct about his specialty, but he has a somewhat diverse inventory. I’ve purchased a few things from him over the years, and none was a seated liberty dime.
https://www.seateddimevarieties.com/ForSaleList.html (shows # of coins by category)
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
I left them 5%... I left these dealers plenty of room because I bought right. They still acted like I was inflicting the STIGMATA upon them. I still left the show with a full PCGS blue box with a roll of 5$ commems, roosters etc.... weirdest experience I have ever had.
Maybe it was me. Maybe my anti social was apparent. Idk
Anyway.
Me too.
Why is Hansen selling his Seated Liberty coins? Are these just the duplicates?
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
Yes. He bought many coins to fill a spot and then found upgrades.
Some of those dealers may have a cash flow problem but I'm guessing that most of them are concerned that there might be a major downward correction in the price of gold and they would be left holding the bag. A dramatic increase in the price of gold is usually followed by a sudden drop in price. How many here think it will be different this time?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Speaking only for myself, I hate to buy gold going into the weekend. It could spike down $50 on Monday. And being the weekend, it's hard to lock in a sale price.
If i had to speculate, I think the show dealers have a similar concern and they are too busy at the show to deal with it. Most small dealers don't buy gold to inventory it. They flip it unless they know they have a customer or a normal weekly sale amount.
I know one dealer who flips 90+% of what comes in and orders gold to supply his bullion buyers. The margins are generally $100 or less making it both risky and expensive to keep a lot on hand.
Just to make sure we're on the same page, are you saying you couldn't find anyone to pay 5% below melt for $5 commems and roosters? The market's probably at 98-99% on the buy side right now, so that would really only leave them 3-4%. Still, 5% below should have been a really easy sale.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I don’t think it helps Gerry in this market that he’s an aggressive pricer.
Seated should be a little softer also because so much has come on the market owing to the value increases. Coupled with the overall softness and you have headwinds.
I do not buy from him but my perception is that the prices are strong for the high quality material. Not a surprise.
Something is working for Gerry. He just sold 8 gold coins (mostly CAC) in the last 2 days. The market is strong for good coins.
Doug Winter put out coins last week. Many sold before the day they were posted (pre-sale). Many others on the day they went public.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Gold itself is knocking on $2,700.....I think in a few months we could be at $3,000 which I thought was likely -- but by 2030.
A year or more ago we were closer to $1,800....we're up almost 50% since then which is putting a powerful floor to the price of gold and all the gold coins that trade off the spot price.
This is a SECULAR move in gold, IMO -- not a cyclical one. Which means a longer bull market with a big increase from a low base. The less rapid the move up, the longer and the higher we will go, IMO.
Pretty soon an MS-65 Saint will have a 3 handle on her without any huge premium. We might already be there.
Some shows good some bad but a big spender or two can really turn the tide.
I am bullish on gold and silver.
@DeplorableDan continues to amaze me. Knowledgeable way beyond his years.
I
I have found an odd mixture of extremely strong prices as well as weak prices. I try to be the buyer on the weak pricing. It takes a lot of effort.
WE have mostly DE's.
97% of our coins are now generics.
Gold AGE, Maple leafs, Kangaroos, pandas. Buffalo's, krugs are all bullion.
NOw much of our Libs and Saints are bullion.
We're selling almost nothing on E-Bay. It makes no sense to offer anything but rarer coins. If we wish to sell 62's - 65's, price volatility is too great to offer them at tight margins. Thus we would rather sell them locally as bullion or hedge with futures.
Essentially, we're closed.
We don't sell at shows. If we did and were concerned about buying and risking falling gold prices, we would probably sell a micro gold future (or a multiple) before the weekend which will enable us to buy multiples o 10 0z with no downside risk. The sale would reduce our long inventory thus creating a cost should the futures gap up.
I'm not a big spender but I recently bought four foreign (European) gold coins all near the size of US $5 gold coins.
The Mysterious Egyptian Magic Coin
Coins in Movies
Coins on Television
It's definitely a buyers market at this point in time. I have won several auctions lately, where the hammer price ended up being significantly lower than price guide, or historical sales numbers (sometimes about HALF price). This is especially true for lower priced, more common stuff such as graded moderns, US type coins, and even currency.
Sometimes, I get the feeling that lots of folks out there are selling off grandpa's coin collection and taking whatever they can get for it. Great for buyers, but pretty bad for sellers.
After looking at it this morning over coffee analyzing the months results, been getting good buys below bid more than quality retail activity. Agree it’s a buyers market.
I know markets go up and down but I have sold enough coins at this point to tell you this is the results I usually get. If you can find 5 or more of that specific coin for sale at any given time then you can expect to get between 60 to 80 percent of what you paid. (Holding 2 or more years not flipping fast). If it is a coin that takes a month or two to find, you can usually get even money or within 10 percent of that going either way. If you have to spend a year or even years to just find a coin (ugly or attractive) then one of two things will happen. If the market has caught up with the difficulty of finding that date you might double your money or more. If the market has stayed flat you will almost always get your money back but little more and fees may eat any actual profit. i find the coin makes a much bigger difference than the market. James
Yours is a great post @seatedlib3991
Coins don't sell in a vacuum or to robots. They sell to people, specifically collectors (selling to a dealer is just selling to a collector through a middleman). So it all comes down to choice, scarcity and current popularity no matter what part of the cycle the market is in.