Current market conditions- How are things looking from where you are seated?
PeakRarities
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This isn't meant to be a "sky is falling" thread but i'm sure many of us have probably noticed that the market has been softening in some areas, and I think its productive for us to have market discussions every now and then. It helps with general awareness, and as a collector/occasional dealer I always like to gain additional insight into parts of the market that I may not be familiar with.
Dealers- How have your sales been? Have you had to adjust your buying strategies to be more conservative, Or stopped buying any certain type of material? What type of inventory is moving, and what is sitting?
Collectors- Have the current economic conditions put a damper on your discretionary spending? Are you currently buying as per usual or are you in conservative mode? Do you notice any lower pricing for the material you're looking for, or have you had any better luck bidding in auctions than you did a year ago?
Open discussion folks, have at it.
Comments
Soft is little understated. It is a lot worst than soft but the interested thing is that PCGS turn around time is still long. So I guess that is carried over from last year’s booms. I am a buyer right now trying to buy something good and under value.
Dan
I was on a call with a dealer this morning and I asked how things were. He said the summer was softer as expected but “has not come back as strong as I expected, but it has picked up a bit.” He’s heading out on vacation but “hoped things would turn around soon”. He also mentioned a softening of prices for silver, and the inevitable hold on some coins that aren’t moving due to pricing.
Things are a little soft. But coming off how torrid they were, prices are still higher then 2 years ago.
I'm a guppy collector that feeds on cheap plankton coins ($10-$50). I'm not looking for registry-level; Just nice world and U.S minor coins that I can have fun building sets with. This summer I won about 1/3 of my snipe bids. Some went for suprisingly low. 1/3, I was the underbidder. 1/3, I was totally blown out of the water. That's the temperature from my part of the ocean.
Tough and hard to find and fresh material is in high demand. Good deals always sell. Greysheet has a number of negatives in the Morgans for October.
The economic condions have slowed things but haven't stopped things
Always love this discussion topic, given the wide range of perspectives here.
I have not pulled back on numismatic buying and I bought a couple of big coins lately. I haven't noticed consistently lower pricing outside of 1921 Peace Dollars, and I'm active across a number of different series and price points.
Gold (precious metal, not numismatic) is still priced attractively given the level of inflation over the past few years.
On the selling front, my sample size is smaller, but I usually have a few things up on eBay and a couple of $200-$400 coins moved recently. I've never sent anything to an auction house, so have nothing to add there.
I will continue to buy coins that are (IMO) high-quality examples that meet my criteria, including grade, eye appeal and budget. Whether I pay more of less for them may well depend on where the market is headed.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Over the last several months I've been selling quite a few middle to upper-middle range type coins, some pre-33 but mostly silver, and have done really well, much better than expected on average. I'm not a dealer at all but I've consistently been selling for above GS.
Buying has been tough. I generally look for two types of coins. CAC gold is one target and I couldn't tell you how that market is because I can't find a single damn coin. I would assume that means the market is super strong and everything is being snatched up quickly... Or the market is weak and people don't want to sell for loss.
In a much more niche area, chopmarked trade dollars have been on a crazy hot tear which continues. I find myself being forced to pay 20-30% more than I expected if I want to buy a coin. I don't sell many of these but the one that I did was a nice coin but a super common date in 45; it sold for nearly double PCGS price guide in minutes.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Prices seem crazy high to me.
In my experience things have slowed down.
I am a morgan guy. Listing sold per recorded period (I think 30 or 90 days) was 34k then 33k down to currently 28k. Active listing has risen by 10k. We are headed for an economic crash and burn like most have never seen.
This is a great question. I collect in a few areas and here is how I see them:
1) Great Britain 19th / 20th century coins: for the most part the market has softened over the last 5+ years with with the (major) exception of crowns (silver dollar size) and top pops. But supply of quality coins is much lower than 5 years ago and remains low. Heritage has its GB showcase auction next month and the at will be telling.
2) Old holder U.S. type and gold: definitely softer now than 6, 12, 18 months ago. A little harder to find but premiums seem down.
3) 19th century type: market seems softer for most types and grades. But like everything there are exceptions.
That said, I followed the Boston collection auction at Heritage recently and was amazed at the demand for real original, unopened rolls and mint / proof sets. Everything has its day.
I buy what I like and ignore the price guide because in 5+ years today’s market won’t matter. But momentum seems to have slowed a bit.
I have started to play around in the CBH world. Quality is not soft there. The auction on Monday is showing some really high prices already. When quality coins show up on dealer sites they disappear rather quickly.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Double Eagles...
Sales over summer (gold) ... OK. not great. Sept seems to have slowed. Small sample.
Bought as much as we sold. Cautious on the buy side. Outbid on most of the rarer dates. Price slipping a bit on moderately rare dates. Bought a few. Not really aggressive and unwilling to take on much new inventory unless we perceive a "deal". Months ago, we had a decent buy/sell spread... now, after costs we find there are very small margins Something has to give for us to get more involved. Gold trading in a relatively narrow range. Maybe it's the econ, maybe ,maybe we need a longer period of time to judge?
Quality is the key phrase being tossed around. Top quality will always sell well. It is the average stuff that is not moving at any type of premium or frequency.
I have moved a bit more into gold bullion, but still looking for good deals on scarce gold coins.
Not a lot of fresh material. Many of us continue buying when opportunities avail themselves for truly rare coins. If it is softening, prices aren't. Maybe on the dreck, but not the rare stuff for specialists. That said, I see top pop coins languishing in seasoned inventories, coins I don't chase because I have the ones just below them in the census. Auctions are mixed. I got some lots for well under my high bid while others got into insane territory, some before crossing on the floor.
This is my lowest ebay sales month so far this year.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Some further commentary-
Generic gold has been getting hit pretty hard, a few months ago even common date double eagles in 63-64 were going for 2400 in the Facebook group I moderate, and now I can source those for about $300 less. Im seeing some decent cac gold in the $2000- $4000 range being offered somewhere in the middle between CDN and CPG, but anything priced closer to CPG needs to be spectacular or it will sit. With that said, FB tends to be more wholesale than retail so I dont have much insight from the front lines ie. coin shows.
Generic US type coins between $200-$2000 are almost always offered close to greysheet on Facebook, and even then some of them sit for while, especially if they're marginal quality. It seemed like a year ago, every time I had my eye on a coin in auction it set the new record. Im not seeing much of that anymore, but granted i'm still not seeing many coins that I want to add to my collection. Ive seen quite a few big money coins that were sold in '22 come back on the block, and take a pretty hard beating, but that could be attributed to being sold too quickly as well. I do think that the peak of the market was in late '22. Ive priced a few coins recently that you can see a steady downward trend in the greysheet app, like this.
Some of the bigger wholesalers/market makers have stopped buying completely, or so i've been told. I know several dealers who have started buying much more conservatively this past month. Personally, I don’t mind if the market trends down for a bit. I got back into the hobby in late 21 as everything was taking off, and I would love the opportunity to pick up some quality rare gold below peak levels. Of course, no one knows where all the super high quality stuff is hiding and when it shows up it goes fast.
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Quick search on GC for Sunday's auction shows there are only 4 CAC Liberty Double Eagles up for sale. If good product does not enter the market, then there will not be many sales in the market. There are only 12 Saints with CAC. There are also listing going out to December 31st. That is a long way off.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I am not a dealer and seldom a seller just a simple collector, I have not noticed any softening of the prices for the coins that I have been looking for. Now it is also true that I am not looking to buy generic 1881-S Morgan dollars so there is that. In the past during a market slowdown or reversal the good stuff is most often held in strong hands and usually goes into hiding rather than offered at fire sale prices.
From an economic standpoint I have read viewpoints from both sides, the doom and gloom of a depression that will make the "Great Depression" look like a mere dip; to those who say there will not even be a recession, who knows.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Do you really want to risk setting off a political firestorm on the forum?
You know where I stand. It affects me and my collection personally. I'm I pissed off?.. You're damn right!!
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
For the coins I understand you buy (gold), I wouldn't expect any market softness to be caused by economic conditions. The economy is not poor for the type of buyer who can afford this type of coinage. If it's happening, it should be psychological.
US stock market is fractured, very narrow participation where a very low number of mega cap stocks have carried the major indexes to within about 10% of the November '21/January '22 all-time high. Small caps are in a bear market. Long-term bonds have been crushed the last 2+ years but offset by rising short-term rates which finally give people with noticeable savings meaningful extra spending cash. Metals essentially flat last 2+ years. US residential real estate is local but though softening somewhat, still in the biggest bubble ever. So are the financial markets generally, which along with federal deficit spending and still ultra-loose credit conditions explains GDP performance.
Gold ran up in 2020 in anticipation of inflation. It was noticeable cheaper then vs. later.
It's always been a mystery why the most common pre-1933 US gold sells for any premium. Yes, I know literally why it does, but these are widgets. There are nowhere near enough hobbyist collectors buying it as a collectible.
Ebay sales for me have been decent, some of the junk, semi keys and keys in lower grades have softened a bit,especially in some series. but they were too high anyway. In shop silver buyers are still buying everything .999 as it comes in, but I dont sell at crazy premiums either. Buy at spot, sell at spot plus 2.00 90% is a slow mover even at melt, mostly have to wholesale it out , in fact taking 440 face up tomorrow to refinery.
The items that I would like to buy out of auctions, seem to still be getting crazy prices, and i get left behind on several.
Oh myself as well, grading services turn around have really slowed down
What is the x-axis on that graph?
Generally, I think your overall analysis is fairly accurate, although different segments always see different results.
I'm addicted to bidding in auctions. But, for whatever it's worth, when I was pressed for time in viewing auctions over the past couple of weeks, I skipped the coin auctions.
There is similar weakness with a similar 2022 peak for most other collectible markets that I dabble in: stamps, comics, paper.
I have a friend whose husband was a dealer. We've been selling off his inventory as her emotional state allows. She constantly asks me if "this is a good time". My answer recently has been: compared to last year or three years ago? The coins and paper we've sold recently still sold for higher prices than he had them marked when he died 3-1/2 years ago. But the prices are lower than last year.
That I don't know, for some reason it's not clear on that graph. Interestingly, it only shows a downward trajectory for MS65 (1907 saint), but in ms64 the results are more stable.
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I think it depends on how you define "collector". [Always a dangerous game.] There are bullion stackers who aren't really "coin collectors" as we normally think of them, but who prefer to stack pre-33 gold rather than Eagles or bars. So, they are "collectors", they just aren't collecting type or date/mm or anything other than bullion.
There also appears to be some kind of internet urban legend floating around about "constitutional" coinage having legal preference relative to other forms of bullion. This includes things like taxability and seizure. I started seeing these people showing up in coin stores during Covid. They are willing to pay large premiums on 90% silver over other forms. I'm not sure where it originally came from, but it is definitely out there. [Those people make me slightly uncomfortable as many of them drop comments about guns and ammo while buying their bullion.]
My slice of the "market" is as competitive as ever. (Better CAC gold). In 2022 I found a lot of great coins and repeatedly ran out of $$ chasing them. What's different in 2023, I just havent found much to get excited about. My want list is as long as ever, but the coins are not showing up. When something good appears, prices are high.
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I’ve seen some slowing down. It seems like those that bought at higher levels don’t want to let much go at a loss (and it makes sense if you can’t buy something else that would be easier to resell or better to keep for your collection).
As far as auctions, some items slip by but almost anything with nice eye appeal gets bid up to the same high levels we have seen in this post 2020 rise.
And thanks for bringing that to everyone attention. My post was clear and to the point. It didn't need additional commentary.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Sorry, I was trying to save you any potential trouble. That's why I didn't quote your original post, in case you wanted to change it. Don't shoot the messenger for pointing out the problem with the message.
Oh come on, you know those people are your best customers
Agree about the bullion stacker/collectors. In fact, I would say the majority of our Facebook group falls into that category, stacking via pre 33. We actually have quite a few who are collectors, and do care about rare dates and branch mint gold, but they don't care one bit about about quality or condition. It could be a holed, bent, cleaned, scratched, ex jewelry Dahlonega gold $1 and it will sell quickly as long as its cheap enough.
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LOL. Good customers or not, they make me uncomfortable. They want me to affirm what they are saying, but I can't or, I guess, won't. I don't argue with them, but I also don't affirm their "theories".
No problem.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Softening for sure- the coins I’m looking at would have gone for more two years ago.
I still can't find the coins I'm looking for, but when I do they seem to go for about the same as they have been going for for the last decade.
I didn't see much change in the market area I'm in during the surge during and after COVID.
Coin Photographer.
Could you clarify in what grades specifically 1921 Peace Dollars might be or are on the price decline? I'm in the market for one and would like to be educated. Thanks for your help!
I buy track and collect prices for CBH's and some Large-size US Currency. Almost nothing I watch today is noticeably less than the end of last summer, and some is noticeably higher.
Quality, high eye appeal CBH's are toasty warm in EF to VChAU and even ChUnc when available. Maybe not quite as hot as last fall and winter in some cases, and for certain varieties and dates, but still very warm.
Currency seems to still be marching steadily higher for many of the scarcer designs and signatures, especially in superior paper quality, and ChAU and better grades.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Dan,
Love the question
From where I'm sitting, I can't find quality coins!
I collect everything from half cents to gold mostly 19th & 20th century type coins but also Lincolns and there just doesn't seem to be anything out there worth bidding on. I'm also seeing a lot of "detailed" coins up for auction
To be fair I have a strict criteria, all must be PCGS graded, and CAC stickered. That's one reason I'm having a hard tome finding anything.
A quick search on GC shows 7610 PCGS graded coins from now thru Dec. Now if you search PCGS + CAC you will find 586 coins TOTAL! And a lot of them are Morgan's, Walkers, and Mercury dimes.
As for the economy, yes I feel the pressure. Not as much expendable cash after expenses. And I believe it's only going to get worst.
JMO
Mike
My Indians
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I wouldn't last long in retail sales. I'd argue with them and their stupid theories. It's tough being an environmental scientist these days and read so much BS out there, particularly from 'know-it-all' coin dealers.
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This exactly! For high quality Type 1-3 DEs, I have seen no slowing. Prices are very competitive and auctions have shown a lot potential buyers ready to pay top dollar. I have tried to look at other DEs of lower quality ( to gauge the overall market) and I have seen some softening.
For me, I still believe quality is king. These pieces may drop in the future some, but I believe any decreases in price will be less than other common and lower quality pieces.
This is a very interesting question and its quite difficult to make a generalization about overall coin market. One thing that I can say, is I spent less money on coins this summer than in many other years for no other reason other than I saw so few coins that meets my criteria - nice originally toned coins thats high on eye appeal - primarily Bust coinage.
Because there are few Bust coins that meets my criteria available, prices will have to increase to get them to market.
I haven’t kept up with market conditions very closely. But the prices on gold dollars are still high and about 30-40% higher than 2 years ago. It’s put a damper on my willingness to buy as nicer pieces are at an even higher premium right now. Just can’t justify it so I’ve been contemplating buying in some other areas or just indulging in other pursuits.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
Yes, I agree. I infer than this type of buyer accounts for most of the demand for the most common pre-1933 US gold.
Lower mint state (62-63) is what I’ve been watching, but I think the decline has been across the board. These got a massive bump with the 2021 release during the height of the pandemic, so some cooling off is unsurprising.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Prices are still a good bit higher than 2-3 years ago. The rise in 2022 was unsustainable. Good material & better dates still command a decent price.
as a collector/occasional dealer
That's funny!! To my way of thinking you're either a dealer or you aren't, but I digress. To the topic at hand, I have always felt it strange that collectors tend to be divided about what perceived market conditions might be based on what they're trying to do.
--- If a collector is selling and prices(re: the "market") are high it is a good thing. If the same collector is buying it's bad. The same thing applies when prices are low, good if you're buying but bad if you're selling.
It just makes no sense to me, so I buy when I find a coin I like and sell when I feel it's time, current market conditions notwithstanding. I do OK. Right now there's a small group with Stack's that will sell this week and I'm not worried. Certainly we all would like to profit from buying/selling from our "collection" but if you're getting concerned enough to worry about things like this then maybe things aren't as "discretionary" as you think.
It seems to me that the truly scarce, rare, high quality and eye-appealing coins continue to bring strong, if not very strong prices. And that many of the rest are somewhat softer. Despite that pull-back in prices, a lot of coins - even very common generic issues - still trade at considerably higher levels than they did just a few years ago. Many collectors and dealers got spoiled by a market that was surprisingly strong in most areas, so the current good conditions don’t seem feel as strong as they otherwise would.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.