Yes and no. As buried in the lengthy posts above, Advance Release is a special, very limited, Mint provided designation.
They are the exact same coins, but, for the crowd chasing Ultra Breaks labels, they are a very limited designation that TPGs and dealers both charge more for. Not for me, but I get why someone might think it has value.
Add a Ryder hand signature, and it's not totally nuts why someone will try to get 2x FDOI prices. As to whether people are interested at that level, I guess time will tell. But, if special designations and limited editions are important to you, there is value in knowing there will never be more than 25K Advance Release sets.
But I will raise you a Moy. And both are authentic hand-signed.
You buy the coin, not the label...
Not with these, Congratulations sets, etc. The labels add a provenance, and some people value that. Again, not for everyone, and the coins ARE exactly the same. It's just taking First Strike or FDOI to an entirely new level, aided and abetted by the US Mint, which actually provides the designation and limits its availability to a tiny subset of Really Big Boys.
But I will raise you a Moy. And both are authentic hand-signed.
You buy the coin, not the label...
Not with these, Congratulations sets, etc. The labels add a provenance, and some people value that. Again, not for everyone, and the coins ARE exactly the same. It's just taking First Strike or FDOI to an entirely new level, aided and abetted by the US Mint, which actually provides the designation and limits its availability to a tiny subset of Really Big Boys.
As you stated, to each their own. At the end of the day, it's the same coin, and for me Frist Strike, FDOI (which you can get by not opening the box) means nothing, just a marketing gimmick to sell more...
And to be honest, I don't really want to see these guys faces on my label...
As you stated, to each their own. At the end of the day, it's the same coin, and for me Frist Strike, FDOI (which you can get by not opening the box) means nothing, just a marketing gimmick to sell more...
FDOI can only be gotten through bulk sellers.
And to be honest, I don't really want to see these guys faces on my label...
As you stated, to each their own. At the end of the day, it's the same coin, and for me Frist Strike, FDOI (which you can get by not opening the box) means nothing, just a marketing gimmick to sell more...
FDOI can only be gotten through bulk sellers.
And to be honest, I don't really want to see these guys faces on my label...
Agreed!
Not sure why they included ex-Mint Director Moy.
They included him because he's a former Mint Director, and he's willing to sell his signature to them. That's why they included him. As to why anyone would pay a premium for a label with his signature, that truly IS a mystery!
But I will raise you a Moy. And both are authentic hand-signed.
You buy the coin, not the label...
Not with these, Congratulations sets, etc. The labels add a provenance, and some people value that. Again, not for everyone, and the coins ARE exactly the same. It's just taking First Strike or FDOI to an entirely new level, aided and abetted by the US Mint, which actually provides the designation and limits its availability to a tiny subset of Really Big Boys.
As you stated, to each their own. At the end of the day, it's the same coin, and for me Frist Strike, FDOI (which you can get by not opening the box) means nothing, just a marketing gimmick to sell more...
And to be honest, I don't really want to see these guys faces on my label...
For the record, First Strike is the one you can get at any time by keeping the Mint shipping box sealed. FDOI has to be at the grading service within X number of days after release, and, as @Goldbully said, is only available to bulk submitters, or at shows.
So, it is more limited and exclusive, for those who care about such things. And, for whatever reason, many people do, as evidenced by the premiums they carry, at least upon initial release.
So, it is more limited and exclusive, for those who care about such things. And, for whatever reason, many people do, as evidenced by the premiums they carry, at least upon initial release.
As @Joe_360 eluded to, one coin is the same as another - all came from the same pile at some point.
The ONLY thing limited and exclusive is the holder...as you stated, for those who care about such things.
One valuable lesson I've learned around here - is buy the coin - not the holder!
So, it is more limited and exclusive, for those who care about such things. And, for whatever reason, many people do, as evidenced by the premiums they carry, at least upon initial release.
As @Joe_360 eluded to, one coin is the same as another - all came from the same pile at some point.
The ONLY thing limited and exclusive is the holder...as you stated, for those who care about such things.
One valuable lesson I've learned around here - is buy the coin - not the holder!
Absolutely. Unless you collect labels, not so much holders. And people do. Shipwrecks. GSA hoards. First Strike. FDOI. Advance Release. Ultra Breaks. This collection or that.
A coin is a coin is a coin, but some people care about provenance, and are willing to pay for it. Buy the coin not the holder works, right up to the point where someone is willing to pay more for a label, and you don't have it.
One valuable lesson I've learned around here - is buy the coin - not the holder!
Absolutely. Unless you collect labels, not so much holders. And people do. Shipwrecks. GSA hoards. First Strike. FDOI. Advance Release. Ultra Breaks. This collection or that.
A coin is a coin is a coin, but some people care about provenance, and are willing to pay for it. Buy the coin not the holder works, right up to the point where someone is willing to pay more for a label, and you don't have it.
Guess we could further amend the statement, 'buy the coin - not the holder' with buy the coin - not the sticker on the holder or the holder.
☺️
» show previous quotes
Absolutely. Unless you collect labels, not so much holders. And people do. Shipwrecks. GSA hoards. First Strike. FDOI. Advance Release. Ultra Breaks. This collection or that.
A coin is a coin is a coin, but some people care about provenance, and are willing to pay for it. Buy the coin not the holder works, right up to the point where someone is willing to pay more for a label, and you don't have it.
Shipwrecks, GSA, VAM is a Designation
First Strike, FDOI, Advance Release is Marketing (Racket)
» show previous quotes
Absolutely. Unless you collect labels, not so much holders. And people do. Shipwrecks. GSA hoards. First Strike. FDOI. Advance Release. Ultra Breaks. This collection or that.
A coin is a coin is a coin, but some people care about provenance, and are willing to pay for it. Buy the coin not the holder works, right up to the point where someone is willing to pay more for a label, and you don't have it.
Shipwrecks, GSA, VAM is a Designation
First Strike, FDOI, Advance Release is Marketing (Racket)
Sure. But one person's designation is another's marketing racket. After all, what's the difference between a CC dollar sitting in a treasury vault for almost 100 years and one sitting in someone's bank deposit box for the exact same period of time?
They very well might have been minted on the exact same day, and be in the exact same condition 140 years later. But one is in a government holder and one isn't.
Designation? Okay, but the same can also be, and is, said about a 2023 Morgan dollar shipped to a Big Boy dealer a few weeks earlier than all the others.
Who decides that one is an important distinction and the other is marketing BS? We all do, by what we collect and what we are willing to pay extra for. Or not.
If you don't think the GSA slabs, and all the hoopla around the sale 45-50 years ago wasn't the marketing racket of its day, to help the government sell millions of silver dollars sitting in treasury vaults for nearly 100 years at a significant premium, I have some valuable East River crossings in NYC I'd like to discuss selling to you.
Literally MILLIONS of silver dollars previously believed to be very rare in uncirculated condition turned out to be a lot more common than anyone knew, and they sold at much bigger premiums than they otherwise would have realized if not released in a highly orchestrated fashion over nearly a decade in special holders. Now tell me about marketing rackets.
@NJCoin
Lots of good points in your reply. As far as your statement attached. I could be wrong, but I have only seen CC Morgan's in GSA holders. As they are CC's, all the hoopla was about the CC's equal to or more then the holder (IMO). And the GSA was more about the coins being "designated" as original and uncirculated, so security to many as much as labeling (again IMO).
I have 6 slabbed CC Morgan's, no GSA's, and I find them much easier to store, and I also like the feel in my hand, just me...
I live on the West Coast, so no interest in any East River Crossing in NYC, but do you hold the title to the Golden Gate Bridge? I could be interested... Happy Coin Hunting!!
NYCoin Said: If you don't think the GSA slabs, and all the hoopla around the sale 45-50 years ago wasn't the marketing racket of its day, to help the government sell millions of silver dollars sitting in treasury vaults for nearly 100 years at a significant premium, I have some valuable East River crossings in NYC I'd like to discuss selling to you.
@cagcrisp said:
There are absolutely No two coin Reverse Proofs sets available to anyone as yet…
[...]
While the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program is a well-established program, it opened the door for the U.S. Mint to create a new program called the Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABBP). This system allows those qualifying bulk purchasers to order a limited number of numismatic Mint products prior to their official release date. Stipulations include being an active member of the existing Bulk Program, having a two-year consecutive revenue average of at least $500,000 a year, and compliance with the Mint’s returns policy. Not all numismatic products are offered through this new elite program. The Authorized Bulk dealers who qualify for this program must pick up their products at the US Mint’s fulfillment center three days prior to the official release date.
[...]
The quote from the TBE says 3 days prior to the release date. This matches the 03/19/21 Mint press release about the ABPP.
Has this timing changed? If so, do you have insight into what the timing is now?
Edit #1 - corrected a typo in the Mint press release date.
Edit #2 - just sent an e-mail to the Mint proper, and asked about this. If they respond, I will post the info in this thread.
The Mint responded. (For the record, I contacted the Mint proper, not the 'catalog/order' CS.)
@cagcrisp said:
There are absolutely No two coin Reverse Proofs sets available to anyone as yet…
[...]
While the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program is a well-established program, it opened the door for the U.S. Mint to create a new program called the Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABBP). This system allows those qualifying bulk purchasers to order a limited number of numismatic Mint products prior to their official release date. Stipulations include being an active member of the existing Bulk Program, having a two-year consecutive revenue average of at least $500,000 a year, and compliance with the Mint’s returns policy. Not all numismatic products are offered through this new elite program. The Authorized Bulk dealers who qualify for this program must pick up their products at the US Mint’s fulfillment center three days prior to the official release date.
[...]
The quote from the TBE says 3 days prior to the release date. This matches the 03/19/21 Mint press release about the ABPP.
Has this timing changed? If so, do you have insight into what the timing is now?
Edit #1 - corrected a typo in the Mint press release date.
Edit #2 - just sent an e-mail to the Mint proper, and asked about this. If they respond, I will post the info in this thread.
The Mint responded. (For the record, I contacted the Mint proper, not the 'catalog/order' CS.)
Right, and this is just bulk purchases. TRUST ME -- the Advance Releases go out far ahead of this. The folks selling RP 70 sets at barely twice original issue price know exactly how they are going to grade, based on what they are seeing from their Advance Release results.
And that's in spite of the fact that @jmlanzaf can't pull it up on a pop report. Just like Big Boys were able to specify minimum 70 grades, even though public TPG web pages indicated this was not a possibility. People can argue with me all they want, but the facts on the ground speak for themselves.
edited to add: Thank you @MetroD for pointing out that the CACG offering is First Delivery, not First Day of Delivery. Still thinking about children being born.
Apparently, FDOI is the new First Strike, and First Strike is no longer commanding a premium. At least not with coins that will all sell out and be delivered within the first 30 days of release. As for CACG, it's the hot new thing, and dealers are hoping it will command a premium. Whether or not it does will be entirely up to us.
@Goldbully said:
The old Bullion Shark folks are offering both First Strike and non First Strike for $349/set which seems odd.
Another one bites the dust then another one bites the dust.
The writing is on the wall and collectors are beginning to realize that bs labels are not worth a premium. One by one first strike, FDOI , Advance release will loose their premium and many will be sorry they spent money they will never be able to recover in the future. Buy the coin not the label.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
I'm confused, what is Advance Release? Where are they purchased from?
I see now. It's a rating, and doesn't have to do with the Mint, other than ABPP Dealers are the only people who would be eligible for the rating... guess they have to make up for purchasing at a premium somehow.
Seems odd to me though... the order shipped is not the order produced. So why the hype?
Do you really think the dealers have the reverse proofs in hand today? Do you really think the grading companies have actually graded one today? They are gambling, and they can get burned, which is why the prices are what they currently are.
Bulk doesn't ship early either - if they're including the rp in the bulk program.
Where are the reverse proofs in dealer hands right now coming from... it isn't the US Mint.
There aren't rp sets out there for grading at this point. The pricing, advanced sales, hype... it's marketing and speculation. I suspect because grading on this year's coins has been very good, first year for rp, and generally playing the market sentiment towards the program.
Better guess is that the people on ebay and other platforms that aren't reputable coin dealers have subscribed to more than their share of coins and are counting their chickens before the eggs have hatched. Subscriptions will begin shipping on the 9th and will be some of the earliest orders received by customers with the exception of ABPP Dealers - 3 days prior and embargoed until at least the 9th, Coin Shops, and Conventions (Whitman).
Do you really think the dealers have the reverse proofs in hand today? Do you really think the grading companies have actually graded one today? They are gambling, and they can get burned, which is why the prices are what they currently are.
Bulk doesn't ship early either - if they're including the rp in the bulk program.
Where are the reverse proofs in dealer hands right now coming from... it isn't the US Mint.
There aren't rp sets out there for grading at this point. The pricing, advanced sales, hype... it's marketing and speculation. I suspect because grading on this year's coins has been very good, first year for rp, and generally playing the market sentiment towards the program.
Better guess is that the people on ebay and other platforms that aren't reputable coin dealers have subscribed to more than their share of coins and are counting their chickens before the eggs have hatched. Subscriptions will begin shipping on the 9th and will be some of the earliest orders received by customers with the exception of ABPP Dealers - 3 days prior and embargoed until at least the 9th, Coin Shops, and Conventions (Whitman).
I'll be at the Coin shop on the 9th
Then I can't help you, other than to assure you that the Advance Release RP 70s that you find available for purchase on 11/9 did not magically appear out of thin air on that date, or even go from the Mint to a dealer to a TPG to a dealer to you in 3 or 5 short days.
Beyond that, believe what you want, but I'm telling you, Advance Release coins are, in fact, a Mint designation attached to up to 10% of a mintage. They go out far earlier than bulk purchases or regular purchases. Dealers pay extra for them, and TPGs charge extra for them. As a result, of course, they cost more. They are embargoed for sale to the public until the official on-sale date, but dealers have them, they know how they have graded, and they are extrapolating those results to coins they have not yet received, but are otherwise indistinguishable from Advance Release coins.
That's where the pricing is coming from. I'm not talking about some rando on eBay. I'm talking about reputable, large dealers, who are selling hundreds of sets at these prices. They will not be reneging, or taking a loss on them, and they are not prematurely counting chickens. They know exactly how many chickens they will be receiving, and are pricing them to sell, now, at a significant profit.
Do you really think the dealers have the reverse proofs in hand today? Do you really think the grading companies have actually graded one today? They are gambling, and they can get burned, which is why the prices are what they currently are.
Bulk doesn't ship early either - if they're including the rp in the bulk program.
Where are the reverse proofs in dealer hands right now coming from... it isn't the US Mint.
There aren't rp sets out there for grading at this point. The pricing, advanced sales, hype... it's marketing and speculation. I suspect because grading on this year's coins has been very good, first year for rp, and generally playing the market sentiment towards the program.
Better guess is that the people on ebay and other platforms that aren't reputable coin dealers have subscribed to more than their share of coins and are counting their chickens before the eggs have hatched. Subscriptions will begin shipping on the 9th and will be some of the earliest orders received by customers with the exception of ABPP Dealers - 3 days prior and embargoed until at least the 9th, Coin Shops, and Conventions (Whitman).
I'll be at the Coin shop on the 9th
Then I can't help you, other than to assure you that the Advance Release RP 70s that you find available for purchase on 11/9 did not magically appear out of thin air on that date, or even go from the Mint to a dealer to a TPG to a dealer to you in 3 or 5 short days.
Beyond that, believe what you want, but I'm telling you, Advance Release coins are, in fact, a Mint designation attached to up to 10% of a mintage. They go out far earlier than bulk purchases or regular purchases. Dealers pay extra for them, and TPGs charge extra for them. As a result, of course, they cost more. They are embargoed for sale to the public until the official on-sale date, but dealers have them, they know how they have graded, and they are extrapolating those results to coins they have not yet received, but are otherwise indistinguishable from Advance Release coins.
That's where the pricing is coming from. I'm not talking about some rando on eBay. I'm talking about reputable, large dealers, who are selling hundreds of sets at these prices. They will not be reneging, or taking a loss on them, and they are not prematurely counting chickens. They know exactly how many chickens they will be receiving, and are pricing them to sell, now, at a significant profit.
You have yet to provide any proof of your assertions... you're driving the hype.
1. The Mint cannot release the coins to ANYONE except ABPP dealers no more than 3 days prior to the on sale date. No one can sell them ahead of the on sale date and time - that means they cannot be put into customer hands until the date and time set by the Mint. (https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-announces-new-authorized-bulk-purchase-program) Shops and convention sales included. The images you are seeing online are really good photoshops of the mint images merged with grader images. I can put your face on one If you like too
2. The Advance Release designation has absolutely nothing to do with the US Mint.(https://texasbullion.com/advance-releases-explained#:~:text=NGC offers the Advance Releases,coin issue available for sale). It is something purely created by the graders-likely in conjunction with ABPP Dealers. The Mint has stated as much. The ABPP program CAN be allocated up to 10% of products selected for the program... that doesn't mean they will. If the graders put an advance release coin designation on 10% of any of the Mint products... it won't be very "special" at all. It is a complete marketing tool. Also, the coinst are not shipped in the order they are produced. No one would ever know if they are produced at the beginning, middle or end of production without numbered COAs. So.... everyone has the ability to get a coin that is "advance release" if they have a subscription.... they're sent out starting on the release date... the difference being the quantity ordered.
The ABPP dealers surely know how much product they are getting. They are hoping for similar grading as the previous products in this year's Morgan & Peace... for their sake... I hope they grade the way they hope. Their extrapolation is pure speculation, especially since they won't have coins in their hands until November 6th - 3 days prior to the release date. The dealers will be able to make arrangements to have their coins graded, but there will be very few to ACTUALLY put in a customer's hand on the release date that are graded.
Don't fall for the hype. Buy the coins because you like them... packaging is just a pretty wrapper.
Do you really think the dealers have the reverse proofs in hand today? Do you really think the grading companies have actually graded one today? They are gambling, and they can get burned, which is why the prices are what they currently are.
Bulk doesn't ship early either - if they're including the rp in the bulk program.
Where are the reverse proofs in dealer hands right now coming from... it isn't the US Mint.
There aren't rp sets out there for grading at this point. The pricing, advanced sales, hype... it's marketing and speculation. I suspect because grading on this year's coins has been very good, first year for rp, and generally playing the market sentiment towards the program.
Better guess is that the people on ebay and other platforms that aren't reputable coin dealers have subscribed to more than their share of coins and are counting their chickens before the eggs have hatched. Subscriptions will begin shipping on the 9th and will be some of the earliest orders received by customers with the exception of ABPP Dealers - 3 days prior and embargoed until at least the 9th, Coin Shops, and Conventions (Whitman).
I'll be at the Coin shop on the 9th
This is correct. No bulk purchases other than ABPP can even place orders in advance much less receive shipment. The ABPP folks have to pick them up themselves 3 days in advance. Everything else is fiction.
Do you really think the dealers have the reverse proofs in hand today? Do you really think the grading companies have actually graded one today? They are gambling, and they can get burned, which is why the prices are what they currently are.
Bulk doesn't ship early either - if they're including the rp in the bulk program.
Where are the reverse proofs in dealer hands right now coming from... it isn't the US Mint.
There aren't rp sets out there for grading at this point. The pricing, advanced sales, hype... it's marketing and speculation. I suspect because grading on this year's coins has been very good, first year for rp, and generally playing the market sentiment towards the program.
Better guess is that the people on ebay and other platforms that aren't reputable coin dealers have subscribed to more than their share of coins and are counting their chickens before the eggs have hatched. Subscriptions will begin shipping on the 9th and will be some of the earliest orders received by customers with the exception of ABPP Dealers - 3 days prior and embargoed until at least the 9th, Coin Shops, and Conventions (Whitman).
I'll be at the Coin shop on the 9th
This is correct. No bulk purchases other than ABPP can even place orders in advance much less receive shipment. The ABPP folks have to pick them up themselves 3 days in advance. Everything else is fiction.
Okay. It's pure fiction, and the people selling sets of 70s at not quite 2x issue price are taking a huge risk for no particular reason, just to make an early sale. Advance Release isn't a thing. It's just bulk purchases with a made up label. Believe what you want.
I'm going out on a limb (not!), believing that people who do this for a living know what they are doing, and that the 70 grade through rate is going to be extremely high, as it was for both the uncs and proofs. In spite of the fact that this has not historically been the case with RPs.
Not because they are guessing, but because they know. And not because I have a crystal ball, but because I know how to interpret what is right in front of me. While you can never allow for the possibility that someone else is right and you are wrong.
We'll see in around 3 weeks, won't we? At which point I will be nothing more than the broken clock that is right twice per day, right?
I know I am right because I have seen those Advance Release slabs, for other issues, on TV more than 3 days before release. More than once. Not photoshops. Not mock-ups. Actual slabs, offered for pre-sale, with the host announcing that they cannot be shipped prior to the release date.
I don't know the exact date the Mint ships them to the select few, but you can rest assured that it is far more than 3 days in advance, given that they go to a dealer, to a TPG, back to a dealer and then to a TV studio for pre-sale more than 3 days in advance. My confidence that they are out, now, stems only from the fact that sets of regular coins, not Advance Release, are now widely available for pre-sale at very reasonable prices. This would simply not be true if the Big Boys did not have a heads-up as to how they would grade. And that can only come from the results they have seen with their Advance Release allocations.
@HATTRICK said:
The writing is on the wall and collectors are beginning to realize that bs labels are not worth a premium. One by one first strike, FDOI , Advance release will loose their premium and many will be sorry they spent money they will never be able to recover in the future. Buy the coin not the label.
.
No disagreement, but some additional thoughts:
From the submission perspective, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace issues out so far, individual/collector submitters have a better chance of getting a 70 with a First Strike submission than a base label submission. So the label does appear to make a difference to the individual submitter.
From the purchasing perspective, with FDOI and Advance Release labels getting near 100% 70s (due to minimum grade 70 requests, no doubt), and these labels having a higher rate of 70s than the First Strike labels, and First Strike having a higher rate of 70s than the base label submissions, one has to wonder that if one wants to purchase a true 70, whether purchasing a base label 70 might be the way to go, since that label apparently receives the most grading scrutiny.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@HATTRICK said:
The writing is on the wall and collectors are beginning to realize that bs labels are not worth a premium. One by one first strike, FDOI , Advance release will loose their premium and many will be sorry they spent money they will never be able to recover in the future. Buy the coin not the label.
.
No disagreement, but some additional thoughts:
From the submission perspective, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace issues out so far, individual/collector submitters have a better chance of getting a 70 with a First Strike submission than a base label submission. So the label does appear to make a difference to the individual submitter.
From the purchasing perspective, with FDOI and Advance Release labels getting near 100% 70s (due to minimum grade 70 requests, no doubt), and these labels having a higher rate of 70s than the First Strike labels, and First Strike having a higher rate of 70s than the base label submissions, one has to wonder that if one wants to purchase a true 70, whether purchasing a base label 70 might be the way to go, since that label apparently receives the most grading scrutiny.
I'm not sure any label gets any more scrutiny than any other. I think it all comes down to which labels the bulk submitters are buying.
The only conclusion I draw from your observation is that base labels see less relative bulk submitter action, if any at all, given the preferable pricing bulk submitters receive for the special labels. First Strike only does better than base because it has more bulk submitters specifying minimum grades of 70 than base, while FDOI and Advance Release are exclusively available to bulk submitters, which accounts for their far higher 70 rate.
I'd be willing to bet that any coin submitted by an individual non-bulk submitter will receive exactly the same grade, regardless of what label is purchased. These moderns all receive very little scrutiny before being slapped with a 69 or 70, and individuals pay far more for each slab than the Big Boys, so there is no reason to discriminate against them. This has been my experience. I do very well when the Mint does a good job and the coins grade well for the Big Boys. Otherwise, not so much. And I am never a bulk submitter.
@HATTRICK said:
The writing is on the wall and collectors are beginning to realize that bs labels are not worth a premium. One by one first strike, FDOI , Advance release will loose their premium and many will be sorry they spent money they will never be able to recover in the future. Buy the coin not the label.
.
No disagreement, but some additional thoughts:
From the submission perspective, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace issues out so far, individual/collector submitters have a better chance of getting a 70 with a First Strike submission than a base label submission. So the label does appear to make a difference to the individual submitter.
From the purchasing perspective, with FDOI and Advance Release labels getting near 100% 70s (due to minimum grade 70 requests, no doubt), and these labels having a higher rate of 70s than the First Strike labels, and First Strike having a higher rate of 70s than the base label submissions, one has to wonder that if one wants to purchase a true 70, whether purchasing a base label 70 might be the way to go, since that label apparently receives the most grading scrutiny.
Would the grading team even know what the label is? The tier is the same.
Email from Mint. Looks like they will ship soon....."We are getting ready to ship your Morgan and Peace Dollar 2023 Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set Subscription. To ensure your order is processed correctly please take a moment to review your payment and shipping information"
@HATTRICK said:
The writing is on the wall and collectors are beginning to realize that bs labels are not worth a premium. One by one first strike, FDOI , Advance release will loose their premium and many will be sorry they spent money they will never be able to recover in the future. Buy the coin not the label.
.
No disagreement, but some additional thoughts:
From the submission perspective, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace issues out so far, individual/collector submitters have a better chance of getting a 70 with a First Strike submission than a base label submission. So the label does appear to make a difference to the individual submitter.
From the purchasing perspective, with FDOI and Advance Release labels getting near 100% 70s (due to minimum grade 70 requests, no doubt), and these labels having a higher rate of 70s than the First Strike labels, and First Strike having a higher rate of 70s than the base label submissions, one has to wonder that if one wants to purchase a true 70, whether purchasing a base label 70 might be the way to go, since that label apparently receives the most grading scrutiny.
.
I appreciate the replies to my above conjecture. I was careful in choosing my words, given that it was just one possible interpretation (conjecture in this case) of the actual data on the rate of 70s for the Morgan and Peace uncs and proofs to date.
.
@NJCoin said:
I'm not sure any label gets any more scrutiny than any other.
I agree....not sure.
.
@NJCoin said:
First Strike only does better than base because it has more bulk submitters specifying minimum grades of 70 than base, while FDOI and Advance Release are exclusively available to bulk submitters, which accounts for their far higher 70 rate.
Very plausible explanation.
.
@NJCoin said:
I'd be willing to bet that any coin submitted by an individual non-bulk submitter will receive exactly the same grade, regardless of what label is purchased.
I'm not sure...but certainly not willing to bet.
.
@jmlanzaf said:
Would the grading team even know what the label is? The tier is the same.
Good point. In a perfect world, the answer would be no.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
I agree. I'll see what the mintage looks like for next year first.
We won't see next year's mintage until the Mint sees how sales go for the 2023 sets.
Very true. I'm just not sure that the Mint deciding to make them an annual thing should cause you to pull back this year. The Mint extending the uncirculated series to 2023 sure hasn't caused the 2021s to tank in value.
Performance is going to depend on supply vs. demand. The Mint is trying to match them, but we won't know until after the fact whether they were successful. 400K for proofs is clearly too much, but things actually look pretty good for 250K with these. 2021 Peace Dollars at 200K are doing pretty well, aren't they?
Bottom line -- I don't think anyone is going to get too hurt at $185 per set on these, and I honestly wouldn't pull back just because there is going to be a 2024 release.
@fathom said:
If the Mint does a 2024 RP issue I will be very disappointed.
Here they have a chance to cultivate loyal subscribers down the road who will see value in committing early.
Please do not flush that down the toilet.
Yeah, well, they are clearly a lot less interested in cultivating loyal subscribers with one-time only limited mintage releases, and are far more interested in striking while the iron is hot and turning $20 worth of silver into a $90+ coin, 500,000 times, every year if the market will support it.
You would do the same if given the opportunity. If and when it runs its course, they will just move on to the next big thing. The one certainty is that there will always be one.
@fathom said:
If the Mint does a 2024 RP issue I will be very disappointed.
Here they have a chance to cultivate loyal subscribers down the road who will see value in committing early.
Please do not flush that down the toilet.
Yeah, well, they are clearly a lot less interested in cultivating loyal subscribers with one-time only limited mintage releases, and are far more interested in striking while the iron is hot and turning $17 worth of silver into a $90+ coin, 500,000 times, every year if the market will support it.
You would do the same if given the opportunity. If and when it runs its course, they will just move on to the next big thing. The one certainty is that there will always be one.
No I would not do the same. I'm canceling my RPs. They are available next year if I change my mind.
No I would not do the same. I'm canceling my RPs. They are available next year if I change my mind.
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Being very new to the collecting world, the RP is really interesting for me... it's a "new product" on an old design. I'm not super interested in collecting the older versions because there is SO much to fill in a collection... it's daunting (as im finding with my fledgling Ike and Kennedy collections). Starting to collect something that doesn't have anything to fill in is much more attractive to me as a new collector.
I think these also stand apart from series like American Women Quarters which will end after 5 years, and I'm collecting to gift to my daughter when she graduates college.
I think the RP will speak to different people for different reasons. Hopefully it will draw more newer and younger collectors who will carry the torch to the next generations. If it weren't for my grandfather gifting Ikes... I probably would've never looked twice at coin collecting.
Comments
An ambitious seller going for the big bucks.
Haven't seen this iteration yet.
2023 S $1 Reverse Proof Morgan Dollar and Peace Dollar 2 Coin Set NGC Reverse PF70 Advance Releases Ryder Signed U.S. Mint Designer Series
$749/set
Coin Advisor
Link
No publicly listed price.
But I will raise you a Moy. And both are authentic hand-signed.
Edited to add images:
You buy the coin, not the label...
Yes and no. As buried in the lengthy posts above, Advance Release is a special, very limited, Mint provided designation.
They are the exact same coins, but, for the crowd chasing Ultra Breaks labels, they are a very limited designation that TPGs and dealers both charge more for. Not for me, but I get why someone might think it has value.
Add a Ryder hand signature, and it's not totally nuts why someone will try to get 2x FDOI prices. As to whether people are interested at that level, I guess time will tell. But, if special designations and limited editions are important to you, there is value in knowing there will never be more than 25K Advance Release sets.
I typically follow this advice as well, but to each their own.
As an aside, someone must be buying these, and the other special labels. Just look at the various options in the PCGS pop report.
Example
Not with these, Congratulations sets, etc. The labels add a provenance, and some people value that. Again, not for everyone, and the coins ARE exactly the same. It's just taking First Strike or FDOI to an entirely new level, aided and abetted by the US Mint, which actually provides the designation and limits its availability to a tiny subset of Really Big Boys.
Even the ANA is excited about the launch of this set.
ANA FaceBook
47 presale NGC REVERSE PF70 ER sets sold by this eBay seller so far.
BIN: $336.99 or make offer.
edited to add: 5 sets sold in last 24 hours.
eBay Link
Only 17 left! Better hurry....🤣😂
As you stated, to each their own. At the end of the day, it's the same coin, and for me Frist Strike, FDOI (which you can get by not opening the box) means nothing, just a marketing gimmick to sell more...
And to be honest, I don't really want to see these guys faces on my label...
FDOI can only be gotten through bulk sellers.
Agreed!
Not sure why they included ex-Mint Director Moy.
They included him because he's a former Mint Director, and he's willing to sell his signature to them. That's why they included him. As to why anyone would pay a premium for a label with his signature, that truly IS a mystery!
For the record, First Strike is the one you can get at any time by keeping the Mint shipping box sealed. FDOI has to be at the grading service within X number of days after release, and, as @Goldbully said, is only available to bulk submitters, or at shows.
So, it is more limited and exclusive, for those who care about such things. And, for whatever reason, many people do, as evidenced by the premiums they carry, at least upon initial release.
What the heck, I'll help stir the pot....
I predict that these coins will be in high(er) demand once everyone sees them, as long as the mint gets the RP finish right.
For the Peace Dollar especially, I like the Uncirculated version better than the proof, and the RP will be somewhere in between, at the very least.
As @Joe_360 eluded to, one coin is the same as another - all came from the same pile at some point.
The ONLY thing limited and exclusive is the holder...as you stated, for those who care about such things.
One valuable lesson I've learned around here - is buy the coin - not the holder!
BST references available on request
Absolutely. Unless you collect labels, not so much holders. And people do. Shipwrecks. GSA hoards. First Strike. FDOI. Advance Release. Ultra Breaks. This collection or that.
A coin is a coin is a coin, but some people care about provenance, and are willing to pay for it. Buy the coin not the holder works, right up to the point where someone is willing to pay more for a label, and you don't have it.
Guess we could further amend the statement, 'buy the coin - not the holder' with buy the coin - not the sticker on the holder or the holder.
☺️
» show previous quotes
Absolutely. Unless you collect labels, not so much holders. And people do. Shipwrecks. GSA hoards. First Strike. FDOI. Advance Release. Ultra Breaks. This collection or that.
A coin is a coin is a coin, but some people care about provenance, and are willing to pay for it. Buy the coin not the holder works, right up to the point where someone is willing to pay more for a label, and you don't have it.
Thank-you for that added (and very important) distinction. That helps with my own education (and maybe others) in this wily coin world.
BST references available on request
[GSA hoards.]
I buy unmolested GSA holders that just happen to have holographic stickers on them...does that count?
Sure. But one person's designation is another's marketing racket. After all, what's the difference between a CC dollar sitting in a treasury vault for almost 100 years and one sitting in someone's bank deposit box for the exact same period of time?
They very well might have been minted on the exact same day, and be in the exact same condition 140 years later. But one is in a government holder and one isn't.
Designation? Okay, but the same can also be, and is, said about a 2023 Morgan dollar shipped to a Big Boy dealer a few weeks earlier than all the others.
Who decides that one is an important distinction and the other is marketing BS? We all do, by what we collect and what we are willing to pay extra for. Or not.
If you don't think the GSA slabs, and all the hoopla around the sale 45-50 years ago wasn't the marketing racket of its day, to help the government sell millions of silver dollars sitting in treasury vaults for nearly 100 years at a significant premium, I have some valuable East River crossings in NYC I'd like to discuss selling to you.
Literally MILLIONS of silver dollars previously believed to be very rare in uncirculated condition turned out to be a lot more common than anyone knew, and they sold at much bigger premiums than they otherwise would have realized if not released in a highly orchestrated fashion over nearly a decade in special holders. Now tell me about marketing rackets.
@NJCoin
Lots of good points in your reply. As far as your statement attached. I could be wrong, but I have only seen CC Morgan's in GSA holders. As they are CC's, all the hoopla was about the CC's equal to or more then the holder (IMO). And the GSA was more about the coins being "designated" as original and uncirculated, so security to many as much as labeling (again IMO).
I have 6 slabbed CC Morgan's, no GSA's, and I find them much easier to store, and I also like the feel in my hand, just me...
I live on the West Coast, so no interest in any East River Crossing in NYC, but do you hold the title to the Golden Gate Bridge? I could be interested... Happy Coin Hunting!!
NYCoin Said: If you don't think the GSA slabs, and all the hoopla around the sale 45-50 years ago wasn't the marketing racket of its day, to help the government sell millions of silver dollars sitting in treasury vaults for nearly 100 years at a significant premium, I have some valuable East River crossings in NYC I'd like to discuss selling to you.
I had just placed my order in yesterday! 1 Set
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.The Mint responded. (For the record, I contacted the Mint proper, not the 'catalog/order' CS.)
Right, and this is just bulk purchases. TRUST ME -- the Advance Releases go out far ahead of this. The folks selling RP 70 sets at barely twice original issue price know exactly how they are going to grade, based on what they are seeing from their Advance Release results.
And that's in spite of the fact that @jmlanzaf can't pull it up on a pop report. Just like Big Boys were able to specify minimum 70 grades, even though public TPG web pages indicated this was not a possibility. People can argue with me all they want, but the facts on the ground speak for themselves.
The old Bullion Shark folks are offering both First Strike and non First Strike for $349/set which seems odd.
It does have the cool label with both partial obverse images.
$349/set
Bullion Shark PCGS First Strike Link
And then there's the CACG First Day of Delivery.....sounds like a pregnant offering!
$399/set
Why does a CACG set demand more $$$?
Bullion Shark CACG Link
November 9th can't get here quick enough. 😁
edited to add: Thank you @MetroD for pointing out that the CACG offering is First Delivery, not First Day of Delivery. Still thinking about children being born.
Apparently, FDOI is the new First Strike, and First Strike is no longer commanding a premium. At least not with coins that will all sell out and be delivered within the first 30 days of release. As for CACG, it's the hot new thing, and dealers are hoping it will command a premium. Whether or not it does will be entirely up to us.
Another one bites the dust then another one bites the dust.
The writing is on the wall and collectors are beginning to realize that bs labels are not worth a premium. One by one first strike, FDOI , Advance release will loose their premium and many will be sorry they spent money they will never be able to recover in the future. Buy the coin not the label.
I'm confused, what is Advance Release? Where are they purchased from?
I see now. It's a rating, and doesn't have to do with the Mint, other than ABPP Dealers are the only people who would be eligible for the rating... guess they have to make up for purchasing at a premium somehow.
Seems odd to me though... the order shipped is not the order produced. So why the hype?
The ABPP program doesn't pick up until three days prior. No more. (https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-announces-new-authorized-bulk-purchase-program)
Bulk doesn't ship early either - if they're including the rp in the bulk program.
Where are the reverse proofs in dealer hands right now coming from... it isn't the US Mint.
There aren't rp sets out there for grading at this point. The pricing, advanced sales, hype... it's marketing and speculation. I suspect because grading on this year's coins has been very good, first year for rp, and generally playing the market sentiment towards the program.
Better guess is that the people on ebay and other platforms that aren't reputable coin dealers have subscribed to more than their share of coins and are counting their chickens before the eggs have hatched. Subscriptions will begin shipping on the 9th and will be some of the earliest orders received by customers with the exception of ABPP Dealers - 3 days prior and embargoed until at least the 9th, Coin Shops, and Conventions (Whitman).
I'll be at the Coin shop on the 9th
Then I can't help you, other than to assure you that the Advance Release RP 70s that you find available for purchase on 11/9 did not magically appear out of thin air on that date, or even go from the Mint to a dealer to a TPG to a dealer to you in 3 or 5 short days.
Beyond that, believe what you want, but I'm telling you, Advance Release coins are, in fact, a Mint designation attached to up to 10% of a mintage. They go out far earlier than bulk purchases or regular purchases. Dealers pay extra for them, and TPGs charge extra for them. As a result, of course, they cost more. They are embargoed for sale to the public until the official on-sale date, but dealers have them, they know how they have graded, and they are extrapolating those results to coins they have not yet received, but are otherwise indistinguishable from Advance Release coins.
That's where the pricing is coming from. I'm not talking about some rando on eBay. I'm talking about reputable, large dealers, who are selling hundreds of sets at these prices. They will not be reneging, or taking a loss on them, and they are not prematurely counting chickens. They know exactly how many chickens they will be receiving, and are pricing them to sell, now, at a significant profit.
You have yet to provide any proof of your assertions... you're driving the hype.
1. The Mint cannot release the coins to ANYONE except ABPP dealers no more than 3 days prior to the on sale date. No one can sell them ahead of the on sale date and time - that means they cannot be put into customer hands until the date and time set by the Mint. (https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-announces-new-authorized-bulk-purchase-program) Shops and convention sales included. The images you are seeing online are really good photoshops of the mint images merged with grader images. I can put your face on one If you like too
2. The Advance Release designation has absolutely nothing to do with the US Mint.(https://texasbullion.com/advance-releases-explained#:~:text=NGC offers the Advance Releases,coin issue available for sale). It is something purely created by the graders-likely in conjunction with ABPP Dealers. The Mint has stated as much. The ABPP program CAN be allocated up to 10% of products selected for the program... that doesn't mean they will. If the graders put an advance release coin designation on 10% of any of the Mint products... it won't be very "special" at all. It is a complete marketing tool. Also, the coinst are not shipped in the order they are produced. No one would ever know if they are produced at the beginning, middle or end of production without numbered COAs. So.... everyone has the ability to get a coin that is "advance release" if they have a subscription.... they're sent out starting on the release date... the difference being the quantity ordered.
The ABPP dealers surely know how much product they are getting. They are hoping for similar grading as the previous products in this year's Morgan & Peace... for their sake... I hope they grade the way they hope. Their extrapolation is pure speculation, especially since they won't have coins in their hands until November 6th - 3 days prior to the release date. The dealers will be able to make arrangements to have their coins graded, but there will be very few to ACTUALLY put in a customer's hand on the release date that are graded.
Don't fall for the hype. Buy the coins because you like them... packaging is just a pretty wrapper.
This is correct. No bulk purchases other than ABPP can even place orders in advance much less receive shipment. The ABPP folks have to pick them up themselves 3 days in advance. Everything else is fiction.
Okay. It's pure fiction, and the people selling sets of 70s at not quite 2x issue price are taking a huge risk for no particular reason, just to make an early sale. Advance Release isn't a thing. It's just bulk purchases with a made up label. Believe what you want.
I'm going out on a limb (not!), believing that people who do this for a living know what they are doing, and that the 70 grade through rate is going to be extremely high, as it was for both the uncs and proofs. In spite of the fact that this has not historically been the case with RPs.
Not because they are guessing, but because they know. And not because I have a crystal ball, but because I know how to interpret what is right in front of me. While you can never allow for the possibility that someone else is right and you are wrong.
We'll see in around 3 weeks, won't we? At which point I will be nothing more than the broken clock that is right twice per day, right?
I know I am right because I have seen those Advance Release slabs, for other issues, on TV more than 3 days before release. More than once. Not photoshops. Not mock-ups. Actual slabs, offered for pre-sale, with the host announcing that they cannot be shipped prior to the release date.
I don't know the exact date the Mint ships them to the select few, but you can rest assured that it is far more than 3 days in advance, given that they go to a dealer, to a TPG, back to a dealer and then to a TV studio for pre-sale more than 3 days in advance. My confidence that they are out, now, stems only from the fact that sets of regular coins, not Advance Release, are now widely available for pre-sale at very reasonable prices. This would simply not be true if the Big Boys did not have a heads-up as to how they would grade. And that can only come from the results they have seen with their Advance Release allocations.
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No disagreement, but some additional thoughts:
From the submission perspective, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace issues out so far, individual/collector submitters have a better chance of getting a 70 with a First Strike submission than a base label submission. So the label does appear to make a difference to the individual submitter.
From the purchasing perspective, with FDOI and Advance Release labels getting near 100% 70s (due to minimum grade 70 requests, no doubt), and these labels having a higher rate of 70s than the First Strike labels, and First Strike having a higher rate of 70s than the base label submissions, one has to wonder that if one wants to purchase a true 70, whether purchasing a base label 70 might be the way to go, since that label apparently receives the most grading scrutiny.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
I'm not sure any label gets any more scrutiny than any other. I think it all comes down to which labels the bulk submitters are buying.
The only conclusion I draw from your observation is that base labels see less relative bulk submitter action, if any at all, given the preferable pricing bulk submitters receive for the special labels. First Strike only does better than base because it has more bulk submitters specifying minimum grades of 70 than base, while FDOI and Advance Release are exclusively available to bulk submitters, which accounts for their far higher 70 rate.
I'd be willing to bet that any coin submitted by an individual non-bulk submitter will receive exactly the same grade, regardless of what label is purchased. These moderns all receive very little scrutiny before being slapped with a 69 or 70, and individuals pay far more for each slab than the Big Boys, so there is no reason to discriminate against them. This has been my experience. I do very well when the Mint does a good job and the coins grade well for the Big Boys. Otherwise, not so much. And I am never a bulk submitter.
Would the grading team even know what the label is? The tier is the same.
I was hoping the Mint wouldn't issue this set again next year.
Will most likely only get a couple sets now.
Mint Link
I agree. I'll see what the mintage looks like for next year first.
We won't see next year's mintage until the Mint sees how sales go for the 2023 sets.
2024 issue is a bad thing
Reduced my subscription from 5 to 2 sets.
I'm all in. Keeping my maximum subscription and will also order some graded sets.
Email from Mint. Looks like they will ship soon....."We are getting ready to ship your Morgan and Peace Dollar 2023 Two-Coin Reverse Proof Set Subscription. To ensure your order is processed correctly please take a moment to review your payment and shipping information"
If the Mint does a 2024 RP issue I will be very disappointed.
Here they have a chance to cultivate loyal subscribers down the road who will see value in committing early.
Please do not flush that down the toilet.
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I appreciate the replies to my above conjecture. I was careful in choosing my words, given that it was just one possible interpretation (conjecture in this case) of the actual data on the rate of 70s for the Morgan and Peace uncs and proofs to date.
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I agree....not sure.
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Very plausible explanation.
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I'm not sure...but certainly not willing to bet.
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Good point. In a perfect world, the answer would be no.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Very true. I'm just not sure that the Mint deciding to make them an annual thing should cause you to pull back this year. The Mint extending the uncirculated series to 2023 sure hasn't caused the 2021s to tank in value.
Performance is going to depend on supply vs. demand. The Mint is trying to match them, but we won't know until after the fact whether they were successful. 400K for proofs is clearly too much, but things actually look pretty good for 250K with these. 2021 Peace Dollars at 200K are doing pretty well, aren't they?
Bottom line -- I don't think anyone is going to get too hurt at $185 per set on these, and I honestly wouldn't pull back just because there is going to be a 2024 release.
Yeah, well, they are clearly a lot less interested in cultivating loyal subscribers with one-time only limited mintage releases, and are far more interested in striking while the iron is hot and turning $20 worth of silver into a $90+ coin, 500,000 times, every year if the market will support it.
You would do the same if given the opportunity. If and when it runs its course, they will just move on to the next big thing. The one certainty is that there will always be one.
No I would not do the same. I'm canceling my RPs. They are available next year if I change my mind.
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Being very new to the collecting world, the RP is really interesting for me... it's a "new product" on an old design. I'm not super interested in collecting the older versions because there is SO much to fill in a collection... it's daunting (as im finding with my fledgling Ike and Kennedy collections). Starting to collect something that doesn't have anything to fill in is much more attractive to me as a new collector.
I think these also stand apart from series like American Women Quarters which will end after 5 years, and I'm collecting to gift to my daughter when she graduates college.
I think the RP will speak to different people for different reasons. Hopefully it will draw more newer and younger collectors who will carry the torch to the next generations. If it weren't for my grandfather gifting Ikes... I probably would've never looked twice at coin collecting.