Flight cancelations and FUN

Zoins · December 29, 2021 5:39PM

@savitale said:

@savitale said:
I have a feeling this thread is going to poof so commenting may be pointless. But I just attended a fairly big conference in California, and I am going to another about the same time as FUN. There was no talk of the state or the venue forcing cancellation. I feel like there's no political will to go down that road again. Masks, probably. Vaccine requirement, maybe. Cancel, at this time I doubt it.

Airline flights are a wholly different matter. Hard to predict if a given flight crew will have a positive test or just decide to opt out that day.

Well, I might need to eat some crow. My conference in California scheduled for the first week of January was just canceled. Now this was a professional society meeting (a few thousand attendees) not a hobbyist trade show, so the situation is a bit different. My understanding is that less than 1/3 of the usual attendance was registered for the in-person event, and at that point the meeting becomes not viable for various reasons. That being said, FUN is a different beast and even if 1/3 of the dealers and 1/3 of the customers show up a trade show might still be not a disaster.

In general, that sounds like a disaster to me.

Of course, if a collector finds that one piece they've been looking years for or a dealer connects with a whale buyer, it may all work out, but how many people go to the a show expecting 1/3 the dealers and customers?

RYK · December 29, 2021 5:47PM

@Zoins said:

@savitale said:

@savitale said:
I have a feeling this thread is going to poof so commenting may be pointless. But I just attended a fairly big conference in California, and I am going to another about the same time as FUN. There was no talk of the state or the venue forcing cancellation. I feel like there's no political will to go down that road again. Masks, probably. Vaccine requirement, maybe. Cancel, at this time I doubt it.

Airline flights are a wholly different matter. Hard to predict if a given flight crew will have a positive test or just decide to opt out that day.

Well, I might need to eat some crow. My conference in California scheduled for the first week of January was just canceled. Now this was a professional society meeting (a few thousand attendees) not a hobbyist trade show, so the situation is a bit different. My understanding is that less than 1/3 of the usual attendance was registered for the in-person event, and at that point the meeting becomes not viable for various reasons. That being said, FUN is a different beast and even if 1/3 of the dealers and 1/3 of the customers show up a trade show might still be not a disaster.

In general, that sounds like a disaster to me.

Of course, if a collector finds that one piece they've been looking years for or a dealer connects with a whale buyer, it may all work out, but how many people go to the a show expecting 1/3 the dealers and customers?

The FUN show turning into FUN-lite would take some of the luster off the show (pun intended), but, in the short/long run, would likely have little effect on the coin market, dealers, investors and collectors, so long as everyone has liquidity. Deals not done in January get pushed forward, perhaps to the Baltimore show, when the current spike will likely be in the rear view mirror.

MsMorrisine · December 29, 2021 5:48PM

Worst case seems to be a c-section oreville

Is she in a hospital bed right now?

Zoins · December 29, 2021 5:48PM

@RYK said:

@Zoins said:

@savitale said:

@savitale said:
I have a feeling this thread is going to poof so commenting may be pointless. But I just attended a fairly big conference in California, and I am going to another about the same time as FUN. There was no talk of the state or the venue forcing cancellation. I feel like there's no political will to go down that road again. Masks, probably. Vaccine requirement, maybe. Cancel, at this time I doubt it.

Airline flights are a wholly different matter. Hard to predict if a given flight crew will have a positive test or just decide to opt out that day.

Well, I might need to eat some crow. My conference in California scheduled for the first week of January was just canceled. Now this was a professional society meeting (a few thousand attendees) not a hobbyist trade show, so the situation is a bit different. My understanding is that less than 1/3 of the usual attendance was registered for the in-person event, and at that point the meeting becomes not viable for various reasons. That being said, FUN is a different beast and even if 1/3 of the dealers and 1/3 of the customers show up a trade show might still be not a disaster.

In general, that sounds like a disaster to me.

Of course, if a collector finds that one piece they've been looking years for or a dealer connects with a whale buyer, it may all work out, but how many people go to the a show expecting 1/3 the dealers and customers?

The FUN show turning into FUN-lite would take some of the luster off the show (pun intended), but, in the short/long run, would likely have little effect on the coin market, dealers, investors and collectors, so long as everyone has liquidity. Deals not done in January get pushed forward, perhaps to the Baltimore show, when the current spike will likely be in the rear view mirror.

The hobby will survive and coins are doing great in general.

The specific issue the going the the show. For dealers considering going to the show, it seems to be a pretty easy financial calculation, whether it be financially worthwhile with 1/3 the business.

lkeigwin · December 29, 2021 5:54PM

I am sure the illness will not be too bad for the vaccinated and healthy. But what do you do about your return flight if you acquire the virus and have nasty and obvious symptoms? Fly anyway? Could you do that to those around you? Would you even be allowed to board?

Instead, hang out at a hotel for several days, living on room service while minding your coins' safety. At significant expense and inconvenience.

This is all going the wrong direction. I am going with my gut. I bailed today.
Lance.

Byers · December 29, 2021 5:55PM

Even with a third showing up, it will have zero effect on the coin market.

The coin business is extremely strong due to many factors. New record prices are happening consistently.

Pnies20 · December 29, 2021 6:20PM

Called heritage today. They are bringing my won lots for me to pick up at the show. Pretty sure they’re going to be there…

MilesWaits · December 29, 2021 6:27PM

So sorry to hear, Oreville. It is very hopeful that she has the support of you and your family. I do wish you the very best.
As far as going to the show and then getting sick and stuck in your hotel room, the other issue would be getting urgent or ER care under the current conditions in Florida. That could pose an amazing nightmare situation.
For those that have decided to wait for the next opportunity, good call.

MsMorrisine · December 29, 2021 6:28PM

The email and online do say lot viewing then

Pnies20 · December 29, 2021 6:31PM

Why do I feel like politics are whispering from the back seat in all of this?

Swampboy · December 29, 2021 6:40PM

@Pnies20 said:
Why do I feel like politics are whispering from the back seat in all of this?

So far huge thank you to PCGS for allowing this thread to continue.
Also thank you to the thoughtful members keeping politics out of this informative discussion.

MilesWaits · December 29, 2021 6:48PM

Well said, Swamp.

Pnies20 · December 29, 2021 6:49PM

Suck ups

(Jk)

Byers · December 29, 2021 6:49PM

I see no politics in this thread. It’s simply everyone’s personal decision to attend FUN or not, based on their risk/reward ratio. Part of the discussion was on the delays and cancellations of flights, the risk of getting infected, and the possibility of being stranded with coins or quarantined.

It’s a healthy and realistic dialogue. Thank you PCGS.

Pnies20 · December 29, 2021 6:50PM

Is there a list of dealers that have canceled, besides Sheridan Downey.

FUN website listed two cancellations and about 4 pages of additions.

MilesWaits · December 29, 2021 6:51PM

Yes correct Byers, its just projection of angst.

Zoins · December 29, 2021 6:52PM

@Pnies20 said:
Is there a list of dealers that have canceled, besides Sheridan Downey.

FUN website listed two cancellations and about 4 pages of additions.

I haven't seen a list, but I recall the following dealers cancelling:

Seth Chandler / Witter Coins
Fred Weinberg
Mike Byers

This is in addition to PCGS and Heritage pulling back.

BigDowgie · December 29, 2021 6:53PM

Dudes and dudetts, chill and think about what is going on with the new variant. Not much different than the flew. If you are not felling well, stat home and be safe. 99.9% odds you will be fine. Even the vaxed and boosted can still get it, but you will be fine. Let's go have some FUN with precautions. My cup is half full, not half empty. Also, need to get out there and look for Jeffersons!

Peace out

golden · December 29, 2021 7:10PM

As of today, the Orange County Convention Center will require masks on all employees.

Pnies20 · December 29, 2021 7:22PM

@Byers said:
Even with a third showing up, it will have zero effect on the coin market.

The coin business is extremely strong due to many factors. New record prices are happening consistently.

Where is this coming from? Who isn’t showing up? If someone knows, please share.

Zoins · December 29, 2021 7:24PM

@golden said:
As of today, the Orange County Convention Center will require masks on all employees.

Interesting, their website still says vaccination, now it's vaccination and masks. Things are moving pretty quickly.

https://www.occc.net/FAQs

Are face masks required at the OCCC?

The OCCC is following current CDC recommendations for wearing of face masks based on vaccination status. Show Management may require attendees to wear face masks during their event. All full-time, part-time and temporary OCCC employees are required to be fully vaccinated, unless otherwise exempt due to medical, religious or covered reason by Sept. 30, 2021.

Byers · December 29, 2021 7:30PM

The OCCC is finally updating their protocol to address the situation.

Yes, a list should be started for those not attending anymore.

Zoins · December 29, 2021 7:34PM

The Orange County Convention Center hosted the AKC National Championship on Dec 18-19. AKC had the following policy:

I wonder if FUN will adopt a similar policy.

ColonelJessup · December 29, 2021 8:02PM

Central States 1980 was a disaster. So was.... and ... and ANA 2009 and Pogue IV, but I think this is a speed bump of minor industry significance. There's plenty of demand. Omicron is spreading quickly enough that it'll be done with degrading towards a clinical mean by Easter. Many more will catch it, Hospitalizations and mortality will decrease. I think @RYK is offering some primo guidance in this area.

Think about what happens if PCGS, NGC and Heritage have in-house rolling epidemics. That's a supply-chain bottleneck of much greater impact over the next two months.

This show would have been wonderful. Attendees will kick @ss. Long Beach is already also toast for major hubs east of Dallas to LAX. At 60% of potential, parking will still be awful, and everyone will drive away with a grin. But I wouldn't count on Heritage. This is a "been there, done that" for them. and PCGS may be taking coins down to the mother ship every four hours to set up a firewall for the grading staff and the equally crucial support team.

You could cancel shows for the entire next year and it would do little but irritate and impede hands-on collectors andthus increasingly whet their appetites.

golden · December 29, 2021 8:34PM

@ColonelJessup said:
Central States 1980 was a disaster. So was.... and ... and ANA 2009 and Pogue IV, but I think this is a speed bump of minor industry significance. There's plenty of demand. Omicron is spreading quickly enough that it'll be done with degrading towards a clinical mean by Easter. Many more will catch it, Hospitalizations and mortality will decrease. I think @RYK is offering some primo guidance in this area.

Think about what happens if PCGS, NGC and Heritage have in-house rolling epidemics. That's a supply-chain bottleneck of much greater impact over the next two months. This show would have been wonderful. You could cancel shows for the entire next year and it would do little but irritate and impede hands-on collectors and increase their appetites.

I made one of my best buys ever at the 1980 CSNS show from a dealer that needed money. The 2009 ANA was a disaster.

lkeigwin · December 29, 2021 9:38PM

@Zoins said:

@Pnies20 said:
Is there a list of dealers that have canceled, besides Sheridan Downey.

FUN website listed two cancellations and about 4 pages of additions.

I haven't seen a list, but I recall the following dealers cancelling:

Seth Chandler / Witter Coins

Fred Weinberg

Mike Byers

This is in addition to PCGS and Heritage pulling back.

I'm sure there are many more. Among the above:

Julian Leidman
Harry Laibstain

willy · December 29, 2021 10:27PM

Received an email from Doug Winter this evening that he was not going to the show. He was bringing me a coin to pickup in person.

jwitten · December 29, 2021 10:40PM

More than likely most people will eventually catch covid. If you are vaccinated you more than likely will be just fine. If you are not vaccinated, that is your personal choice. I don’t see why we are shutting the world down again when almost everyone has had the chance to be protected.

hedgefundtradingdesk · December 29, 2021 11:31PM

So will everyone bail on NY International, which has 4x the case rate of Orlando? Or are PCGS and Heritage being nakedly political here?

Swampboy · December 29, 2021 11:48PM

@hedgefundtradingdesk said:
So will everyone bail on NY International, which has 4x the case rate of Orlando? Or are PCGS and Heritage being nakedly political here?

Welcome to the forum.

SmEagle1795 · December 29, 2021 11:48PM

@hedgefundtradingdesk said:
So will everyone bail on NY International, which has 4x the case rate of Orlando? Or are PCGS and Heritage being nakedly political here?

As of this moment, it isn't cancelled but I'm personally almost certainly not going to attend (which is very disappointing but according to my wife, coins are not worth the risk).

jmlanzaf · December 29, 2021 11:50PM

@hedgefundtradingdesk said:
So will everyone bail on NY International, which has 4x the case rate of Orlando? Or are PCGS and Heritage being nakedly political here?

Thread killer... but an interesting question. There is an extra week before NY, so that may be next week's decision.

ColonelJessup · December 29, 2021 11:55PM

@jwitten said:
More than likely most people will eventually catch covid. If you are vaccinated you more than likely will be just fine. If you are not vaccinated, that is your personal choice. I don’t see why we are shutting the world down again when almost everyone has had the chance to be protected.

Except from you breathing on them

ColonelJessup · December 30, 2021 12:04AM

@hedgefundtradingdesk said:
So will everyone bail on NY International, which has 4x the case rate of Orlando? Or are PCGS and Heritage being nakedly political here?

Welcome to the Forum and to trolling its bourse of ideas. You seem to be a trader in the mold of perennial bear Ellsworth Toohey. He remarked that he "only dealt in the stock market of the soul, and he always sold short".

That Ayn Rand always cracked me up. World's all-time greatest libertarian cartoonist.

FredWeinberg · December 30, 2021 3:47AM

Brad Rodgers of Numismatic Emporium Inc. has also canceled the FUN show

jmlanzaf · December 30, 2021 5:34AM

@ColonelJessup said:

@jwitten said:
More than likely most people will eventually catch covid. If you are vaccinated you more than likely will be just fine. If you are not vaccinated, that is your personal choice. I don’t see why we are shutting the world down again when almost everyone has had the chance to be protected.

Except from you breathing on them

They can avoid my breathing on them by staying home. No one is dragging them to the show to breath on them.

Mgarmy · December 30, 2021 5:57AM

Which is what they are doing via not attending.

Zoins · December 30, 2021 6:00AM

Working list of cancellations:

Partial Cancellations

PCGS: no on-site grading, no cocktail party
Heritage: no auctions

Full Cancellations

Brad Rodgers of Numismatic Emporium Inc.
Fred Weinberg
Harry Laibstain
Julian Leidman
Mike Byers
Seth Chandler of Witter Coins

Mgarmy · December 30, 2021 6:03AM

“ The U.S. Mint has announced they will not be able to attend our January convention”

gonzer · December 30, 2021 6:04AM

Zoins · December 30, 2021 6:07AM

@Mgarmy said:
“The U.S. Mint has announced they will not be able to attend our January convention”

Wow!

I wonder what we'll see in the next 7 days.

http://www.funtopics.com/

Mgarmy · December 30, 2021 6:18AM

There nonchalant attitude toward precautions did not help them. However the virus is endemic just like flu and now we have post exposure mitigation so hopefully this will be the last Fun show messed up.

amwldcoin · December 30, 2021 6:22AM

I'm wondering if FUN will allow a dealer to cancel and maintain their current table assignment and not loose their bourse fee. I know I could call, but at this point I am attending. If they do allow cancellations with credit I would wager the list of no-shows would grow exponentially.

Zoins · December 30, 2021 6:33AM

@Mgarmy said:
There nonchalant attitude toward precautions did not help them. However the virus is endemic just like flu and now we have post exposure mitigation so hopefully this will be the last Fun show messed up.

The attitude is interesting given the AKC policy in the same venue just 10 days ago.

I can see and understand PCGS not wanting to send their grading and operations staff. If any of them were affected, it could affect their business much longer than the dates of the conference.

It is promising that Omicron is crowding out Delta. Perhaps we'll see an even more transmissible and even less impacting variant in the future.

MFeld · December 30, 2021 6:42AM

@Mgarmy said:
There nonchalant attitude toward precautions did not help them. However the virus is endemic just like flu and now we have post exposure mitigation so hopefully this will be the last Fun show messed up.

Perhaps I’m misinterpreting the attitude behind the language on the FUN show web page. But to me, it comes across as beyond merely “nonchalant”. Rather, it strikes me as in-your-face, “we’re not going to do anything about this situation.”

Mgarmy · December 30, 2021 6:49AM

I agree Mark but was avoiding

keets · December 30, 2021 6:51AM

Perhaps we'll see an even more transmissible and even less impacting variant in the future.

this is an almost certainty as Mother Nature hitchhikes to all points of the Nation/World and figures it out rather easily. Mankind, on the other hand, seems to have difficulty understanding its world and adapting to circumstances. if I read this thread correctly, one-out-of-four attendees should be contracting the F.U.N. variant in the next 7-10 days. interesting. put another way to suit my thinking: blindfolded at the curb with a 25% chance of being struck by a passing car, I would not cross the street. kudos to those much braver than me.

Mgarmy · December 30, 2021 6:52AM

Zoins- by next year this time my hope is that you get a Covid shot that is quadravallant that covers multiple strains for a year vice this every couple months variety.

Zoins · December 30, 2021 6:54AM

@Mgarmy said:
Zoins- by next year this time my hope is that you get a Covid shot that is quadravallant that covers multiple strains for a year vice this every couple months variety.

The pill is coming! I wonder if it will be OTC.

My guess is we may need better global vaccine coverage before variants stop coming and vaccines last longer. From the map below, we'll get there in early 2023.

That or we see less harmful and more transmissible variants come out to the point the more severe ones are crowded out.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/01/28/vaccine-nationalism-means-that-poor-countries-will-be-left-behind

BigDowgie · December 30, 2021 6:59AM

I'm pretty sure the FUN Crew is just trying to stop the onslaught of phone calls they have been getting. They are telling us that YOU control your own decisions pertaining to attending the show. Dealers have the right to set their own protocol when it comes to their table space. One size does not fit all. Let's go and have some FUN!

Flight cancelations and FUN

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