If you set the scene for a Covid party the guest of honor will not disappoint
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@Mgarmy said:
If you set the scene for a Covid party the guest of honor will not disappoint
People have different risk tolerances. Some people seem fine with getting it, while others are less so.
Unlike previous phases of the pandemic, to me there seems to be a certain inevitability of getting infected now. The asymptomatic Covid positive rate in San Francisco, one of the most heavily vaccinated parts of the country, was approaching 10% earlier this week. By all accounts, Omicron is everywhere.
The reasons one might choose to travel to any large gathering at this point goes far beyond acquiring/spreading the virus at the destination:
1. Travel disruptions.
2. Service disruptions on the ground. Many restaurants around me are shuttering because the staff are all out sick.
3. Getting ill far from home. Even if it were "just a bad cold", I would rather deal with that at home than at the Rosen Hotel.
4. Getting very ill or injured far from home, from Covid or something else, and requiring emergency services, which are already overwhelmed in many locations.
Specifically regarding FUN, it appears that some of the dealer and industry participants are no longer attending or have lightened their presence. I expect this number to increase. Even if I were within a four hour drive, I would no longer be attending. Regarding NY International, brought up by our newest member, I expect that the dominos will fall in a similar way. However, if the show is held under different circumstances (vaccine requirement, required masking, spaced tables, well-ventilated facility, etc.), maybe not.
Mr Feld, I share your surprise at the wording. Did someone in Orlando secretly want the show cancelled?
That said superficial precautions are little better than none. With the meteoric rise of Omicron, I have to assume NY International, PCGS Invitational, and Long Beach will all be cancelled as well. FUN will go ahead, but with mostly regional attendance.
Perhaps by Spring Omicron will all be behind us. In the mean time we should discuss what would make us comfortable attending a show. I will never fault anyone who cancels out of concern for personal health, but I find the politicking for preferred venues troubling.
@RYK said:
Regarding NY International, brought up by our newest member, I expect that the dominos will fall in a similar way. However, if the show is held under different circumstances (vaccine requirement, required masking, spaced tables, well-ventilated facility, etc.), maybe not.
NYINC is operating under very different Covid protocols than FUN because they are located in New York City.
Here's what their site says:
A Word About Covid Public Health Precautions and Mandates in Effect for the 50th Annual NYINC
Regulations and mandates promulgated by the New York City government require all participants in the NYINC to present positive written or electronic documentation of having undergone Covid vaccination.
There are no exceptions to nor exemptions from this requirement, which applies to NYINC booth holders, staff members and all visitors.
Please plan accordingly and be certain to bring proof of Covid vaccination to the NYINC in order to register and participate.
@oreville said:
My daughter is expecting to give birth to our first grandchild on or about January 5th so I cannot go to FUN. On top of it she just tested positive for Covid a few days ago. Of course, my wife and I are nervous.
Prayers for all of you!
Autism Awareness: There is no limit to the good you can do, if you don't care who gets the credit.
@BigDowgie said:
Dudes and dudetts, chill and think about what is going on with the new variant. Not much different than the flew. If you are not felling well, stat home and be safe. 99.9% odds you will be fine. Even the vaxed and boosted can still get it, but you will be fine. Let's go have some FUN with precautions. My cup is half full, not half empty. Also, need to get out there and look for Jeffersons!
Peace out
Not much different for those that are vaxxed and boosted. Unvaxxed are showing up in our hospitals in record numbers for the pandemic. See my post above about headlines from CNN. Fully agree about FUN - folks please take all of the necessary precautions and stay safe.
@jwitten said:
More than likely most people will eventually catch covid. If you are vaccinated you more than likely will be just fine. If you are not vaccinated, that is your personal choice. I don’t see why we are shutting the world down again when almost everyone has had the chance to be protected.
Because it is well established that 'almost everyone' is not taking the chance to be protected (20% in almost all 1rst world countries don't get vaxxed). Our hospitals are filling up, reflecting what is a disaster for our civilization.
We still don't understand Covid well enough yet to keep everything open under these circumstances......... Hopefully by next year we will and things will calm down abit - maybe out of the pandemic and becoming endemic.
Perhaps the hospitalizations are more concentrated now so the aggregate country numbers don’t reflect the situation in specific hospitals?
Aya Elamroussi, CNN said: Omicron surge is 'unlike anything we've ever seen,' expert says
An unprecedented spike in Covid-19 cases fueled by the fast-moving Omicron variant is crushing hospitals across the United States, with doctors describing packed emergency rooms as health experts implore New Year's Eve revelers to keep parties small and outdoors to help avert an even worse surge.
"It's unlike anything we've ever seen, even at the peak of the prior surges of Covid," Dr. James Phillips, who works in Washington, DC, said Wednesday, when the nation hit a new pandemic high of 300,886 average new daily cases over the prior week, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.
Perhaps the hospitalizations are more concentrated now so the aggregate country numbers don’t reflect the situation in specific hospitals?
Aya Elamroussi, CNN said: Omicron surge is 'unlike anything we've ever seen,' expert says
An unprecedented spike in Covid-19 cases fueled by the fast-moving Omicron variant is crushing hospitals across the United States, with doctors describing packed emergency rooms as health experts implore New Year's Eve revelers to keep parties small and outdoors to help avert an even worse surge.
"It's unlike anything we've ever seen, even at the peak of the prior surges of Covid," Dr. James Phillips, who works in Washington, DC, said Wednesday, when the nation hit a new pandemic high of 300,886 average new daily cases over the prior week, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.
yes. The CDC data is national.
Don't trust media to not sensationalize everything.
But, again, cases are setting records. Hospitalizations (so far) are significantly lagging cases.
Perhaps the hospitalizations are more concentrated now so the aggregate country numbers don’t reflect the situation in specific hospitals?
Aya Elamroussi, CNN said: Omicron surge is 'unlike anything we've ever seen,' expert says
An unprecedented spike in Covid-19 cases fueled by the fast-moving Omicron variant is crushing hospitals across the United States, with doctors describing packed emergency rooms as health experts implore New Year's Eve revelers to keep parties small and outdoors to help avert an even worse surge.
"It's unlike anything we've ever seen, even at the peak of the prior surges of Covid," Dr. James Phillips, who works in Washington, DC, said Wednesday, when the nation hit a new pandemic high of 300,886 average new daily cases over the prior week, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.
yes. The CDC data is national.
Don't trust media to not sensationalize everything.
But, again, cases are setting records. Hospitalizations (so far) are significantly lagging cases.
If the hospitalizations aren’t evenly distributed, it’s possible that both lower national numbers and very high regional/local numbers could be true.
Did you read the article you linked? It is in no way positive nor encouraging
I didn't say it was positive or negative. It's actually somewhat neutral to positive. Cases are way up. Hospitalizations (so far) are lagging considerably. If you look at the UK and South Africa data (linked in the article), hospitalizations never did catch up as most cases of Omicron were minor.
Flu is actually shooting up as fast or faster than Covid. Tis the season, and all that.
We need to recalibrate our expectations and only look at hospitalizations (serious cases) and not look at total case numbers. The fact is that you are likely to see 100,000 cases per day next year and every year during Covid/flu season. But with vaccinations and weaker strains, you are (hopefully) going to see lower death rates.
This is (eventually) where Covid probably ends up, possibly soon if Omicron takes over. You have hundreds of thousands of cases per day but only a couple hundred associated deaths.
That's why I'm suggesting we should be looking at the hospitalization/death numbers (still not good) and not the total caseload numbers for Covid. We need to reprogram our expectations moving forward.
This is (eventually) where Covid probably ends up, possibly soon if Omicron takes over. You have hundreds of thousands of cases per day but only a couple hundred associated deaths.
That's why I'm suggesting we should be looking at the hospitalization/death numbers (still not good) and not the total caseload numbers for Covid. We need to reprogram our expectations moving forward.
Hospitalizations are good to look at, but you seen to be discounting hospital reports in favor of aggregate numbers:
"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.
"6 Georgia health systems seeing 100 to 200% increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations".
So called statistics like this are meaningless. Were there 750,000 people hospitalized and now there are 1.5 million ? Or were 9 people in the hospital and now there are 18......
to attend FUN or not should not even be a choice. IT, plus ALL other shows of any kind should be canceled for at least the next 2 months.
, perhaps longer. Just not right to possibly become a carrier for this Virus without even knowing it.
It should be law! The law should encompass strict measures and compensate where appropriate.....but certainly NOT the ever greedy airlines trying to suck the last cent out of your pocket.
Common sense and YOUR own health and welfare should always prevail over money!
This is (eventually) where Covid probably ends up, possibly soon if Omicron takes over. You have hundreds of thousands of cases per day but only a couple hundred associated deaths.
That's why I'm suggesting we should be looking at the hospitalization/death numbers (still not good) and not the total caseload numbers for Covid. We need to reprogram our expectations moving forward.
Hospitalizations are good to look at, but you seen to be discounting hospital reports in favor of aggregate numbers:
"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.
I'm discounting news reports in deference to CDC data. The media likes to hype. The aggregate data has to, of necessity, include the individual hospital data. That is what they are aggregating.
This is (eventually) where Covid probably ends up, possibly soon if Omicron takes over. You have hundreds of thousands of cases per day but only a couple hundred associated deaths.
That's why I'm suggesting we should be looking at the hospitalization/death numbers (still not good) and not the total caseload numbers for Covid. We need to reprogram our expectations moving forward.
Hospitalizations are good to look at, but you seen to be discounting hospital reports in favor of aggregate numbers:
"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.
I'm discounting news reports in deference to CDC data. The media likes to hype. The aggregate data has to, of necessity, include the individual hospital data. That is what they are aggregating.
The CDC data you’re quoting don’t seem relevant to me in trying to understand the situation on hospitals because it’s aggregating nation wide. Hospital capacity per region seems more useful.
And in any event, hospitalizations are going up which we can see in the data.
This is (eventually) where Covid probably ends up, possibly soon if Omicron takes over. You have hundreds of thousands of cases per day but only a couple hundred associated deaths.
That's why I'm suggesting we should be looking at the hospitalization/death numbers (still not good) and not the total caseload numbers for Covid. We need to reprogram our expectations moving forward.
Hospitalizations are good to look at, but you seen to be discounting hospital reports in favor of aggregate numbers:
"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.
I'm discounting news reports in deference to CDC data. The media likes to hype. The aggregate data has to, of necessity, include the individual hospital data. That is what they are aggregating.
The CDC data you’re quoting don’t seem relevant to me in trying to understand the situation on hospitals because it’s aggregating nation wide. Hospital capacity per region seems more useful.
You can go find that data if you want it. What seems completely irrelevant is "100% increase in 6 hospitals in GA". That could be 2 cases rather than 1 case last week. GA is also not Florida.
Looking at a single random hospital is useless in assessing the current variant or the current national trend. If you want to look at Orange County FL, go ahead.
It's all just statistics unless it's someone you know. I received this text from my sister last night about her dear friend and colleague from a local charity store. This is a picture of us together two weeks ago. She is a very funny, vivacious and kind young lady who is now fighting for her life:
Current hospitalizations in Florida are going up, but they are ONE-FIFTH what they were in September. That is despite the huge surge in cases which now has case numbers higher than September.
Of course, hospitalizations can lag cases by up to 2 weeks. But the data is consistent with UK and South Africa data which show high transmissibility but as much as 80% lower severity for Omicron.
And even those numbers aren't terribly helpful. If 80% of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated and you are vaccinated. If 80% of the deaths are 75+ years old and you are 55. Etc.
Everyone needs to consider their own risk tolerance.
@pointfivezero said:
It's all just statistics unless it's someone you know. I received this text from my sister last night about her dear friend and colleague from a local charity store. This is a picture of us together two weeks ago. She is a very funny, vivacious and kind young lady who is now fighting for her life:
Sorry to hear about this. I hope she pulls through!
The people I know who have lost a family member to Covid have a much different perspective than the ones I know who haven’t. It’s raw and very emotional.
"Florida has reported having 6,392 staffed adult ICU beds. 4,157 are filled by non-COVID patients and 453 are filled by COVID patients. Overall, 4,610 out of 6,392 (72%) are filled. This suggests some ability to absorb an increase in COVID cases. About this data..."
Florida has a 72% ICU occupancy but 90% of that is from non-Covid cases. This is one of those complex factoids. It means that Covid is not the reason for the high occupancy of ICU. HOWEVER, if you consider the non-Covid patients to be the baseline, it means that a huge surge in COVID could overwhelm the vacancies. HOWEVER, that requires an additional 1700 Covid ICU patients against a current 453 or an increase of 400%
This is neither an argument for caution or for abandoning caution. It's a plea to consider the totality of facts in making your personal risk assessment. [Which also includes other "risks" like flu, driving, flying, parasites, extreme weather, venereal diseases, smoking, etc.]
@jmlanzaf said:
This is neither an argument for caution or for abandoning caution. It's a plea to consider the totality of facts in making your personal risk assessment. [Which also includes other "risks" like flu, driving, flying, parasites, extreme weather, venereal diseases, smoking, etc.]
I’m guessing most people are doing this. Do you think people aren’t doing this?
If I was in a highly susceptible group I would consider passing, but if you feel you can hide from catching 'omicron' in the next 6 months, you are fooling yourself.
@davewesen said:
If I was in a highly susceptible group I would consider passing, but if you feel you can hide from catching 'omicron' in the next 6 months, you are fooling yourself.
It may not be a big deal to get it for some but I’m guessing a lot of people can avoid it pretty easily if they they are not in a front line job. Just use online meetings and order deliveries.
It does come down to basic math. Yes, this variant appears to be 'milder' but (hypothetically) if 10 times more people catch it while causing only a fourth of the hospitalizations of Delta, you will still have a major issue.
@davewesen said:
If I was in a highly susceptible group I would consider passing, but if you feel you can hide from catching 'omicron' in the next 6 months, you are fooling yourself.
I would shorten that timeline to 2 months, and I generally agree with the inevitability of catching Omnicron and hope and believe that this Omnicron wave may be the crescendo event of the pandemic. While I may not be at high risk of severe illness/hospitalization/death, I am very susceptible to being extremely put out by air travel snafus, restaurant closures, being ill away from home, etc., and I would do anything in my power to reduce my likelihood of being so inconvenienced. YMMV
They can avoid my breathing on them by staying home. No one is dragging them to the show to breath on them.
Here i go getting banned again. In the third person as a generalized response.
You want to wear a mask and breath on me, I'll buy you a convention center bottle of water.
You want to casually breath on me from your personal platform of medical ignorance and sociopathic blindness, I'll be entering what you might consider to be your personal space to knee you in the groin. That will be my "Stand Your Ground" response to your assault on me. Bring your gun. I'm old and don't need the money. Your GoFundMe site can pay off your lawyers.
If one might offer reductio ad absurdum, expect a proportionate response. If one might believe some moron with a loaded weapon should be allowed with 100 feet of a President because of his 2nd Amendment rights, breath on this one as his proxy.
And to the fourth grader who misspelled it, try this sentence. "The illiterate moron and intellectually challenged numismatist flew up through the flue of the chimney and headed south to Florida to pass along his asymptomatic flu". Forget about the positions of various American politicians. Jair Bolsonaro is the COVID Man of the Year.
Remember that old political throw-away line "I like un-educated people". It's a matter of record that a thorough epidemiological response plan was trashed in early 2017 by the federal government. And real men don't wear masks.
Except during Family Day at the US Capitol.
@jmlanza makes some excellent points about curating information. He sometimes raises points for intellectual consideration without absenting the "proper" debating pronouns. It's a benefit to this venue. A pain in the butt, but thought-provoking.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
"6 Georgia health systems seeing 100 to 200% increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations".
So called statistics like this are meaningless. Were there 750,000 people hospitalized and now there are 1.5 million ? Or were 9 people in the hospital and now there are 18......
The old saying; Statistics never lie, but liars use statistics.
Need a Barber Half with ANACS photo certificate. If you have one for sale please PM me. Current Ebay auctions
@Zoins said:
Updated working list of cancellations:
Partial Cancellations
PCGS: no on-site grading, no cocktail party
Heritage: no auctions
Full Cancellations
U.S. Mint
Brad Rodgers of Numismatic Emporium Inc.
Eagle Eye Rare Coins (Rick Snow)
Fred Weinberg
Harry Laibstain
Julian Leidman
Mike Byers
Sheridan Downey
Witter Coins
Thanks for compiling this list. There are hundreds of dealers on the FUN attendee site, the vast majority of which are those I have never heard of, many along the lines of “Smith’s Coin and Pawn, Somewhere, Indiana”. I suspect there’s no easy way to know what these dealers are doing, but it would be interesting.
It’s too bad folks have to argue. If you want to go, go. If you want to stay home, stay home. No need to argue.
I am really looking forward to reading the show reports.
It will be interesting for sure to see the turnout- I’ll post a show report with some pics. It’s a 2.5 hour drive for me so no biggie. I wear a KN95 mask all day every day anyway as I see patients and do surgery. I was just about the only person with a KN95 at Summer FUN this year.
Before this thread inevitably gets locked, I wanted to suggest that someone create a simple accounting thread of who will and won't be attending the show. Or not.
Comments
If you set the scene for a Covid party the guest of honor will not disappoint
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Updated working list of cancellations:
Partial Cancellations
Full Cancellations
I could be wrong but the way I read it on Instagram is that no one from Witter coin will be attending FUN
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The bst here shall be a busy place, me thinks. Be safe all. Peace Roy
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I'll reword it to be more clear
People have different risk tolerances. Some people seem fine with getting it, while others are less so.
Unlike previous phases of the pandemic, to me there seems to be a certain inevitability of getting infected now. The asymptomatic Covid positive rate in San Francisco, one of the most heavily vaccinated parts of the country, was approaching 10% earlier this week. By all accounts, Omicron is everywhere.
The reasons one might choose to travel to any large gathering at this point goes far beyond acquiring/spreading the virus at the destination:
1. Travel disruptions.
2. Service disruptions on the ground. Many restaurants around me are shuttering because the staff are all out sick.
3. Getting ill far from home. Even if it were "just a bad cold", I would rather deal with that at home than at the Rosen Hotel.
4. Getting very ill or injured far from home, from Covid or something else, and requiring emergency services, which are already overwhelmed in many locations.
Specifically regarding FUN, it appears that some of the dealer and industry participants are no longer attending or have lightened their presence. I expect this number to increase. Even if I were within a four hour drive, I would no longer be attending. Regarding NY International, brought up by our newest member, I expect that the dominos will fall in a similar way. However, if the show is held under different circumstances (vaccine requirement, required masking, spaced tables, well-ventilated facility, etc.), maybe not.
Mr Feld, I share your surprise at the wording. Did someone in Orlando secretly want the show cancelled?
That said superficial precautions are little better than none. With the meteoric rise of Omicron, I have to assume NY International, PCGS Invitational, and Long Beach will all be cancelled as well. FUN will go ahead, but with mostly regional attendance.
Perhaps by Spring Omicron will all be behind us. In the mean time we should discuss what would make us comfortable attending a show. I will never fault anyone who cancels out of concern for personal health, but I find the politicking for preferred venues troubling.
NYINC is operating under very different Covid protocols than FUN because they are located in New York City.
Here's what their site says:
https://www.nyinc.info/
Prayers for all of you!
CNN Headlines this am:
6 Georgia health systems seeing 100 to 200% increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations
Airlines cancel more than 1,000 flights on Thursday
note - those are US flights.....
More US states are at or near all-time peak Covid-19 hospitalization levels
JetBlue is canceling 1,280 flights through Jan. 13 as Omicron cases surge
Reports indicate J&J Covid-19 vaccine booster protects people against severe illness from Omicron variant
note - hey some good news!
FUN? Be very careful........
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Not much different for those that are vaxxed and boosted. Unvaxxed are showing up in our hospitals in record numbers for the pandemic. See my post above about headlines from CNN. Fully agree about FUN - folks please take all of the necessary precautions and stay safe.
Omicron surge is 'unlike anything we've ever seen,' expert says - https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
Best, SH
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Because it is well established that 'almost everyone' is not taking the chance to be protected (20% in almost all 1rst world countries don't get vaxxed). Our hospitals are filling up, reflecting what is a disaster for our civilization.
We still don't understand Covid well enough yet to keep everything open under these circumstances......... Hopefully by next year we will and things will calm down abit - maybe out of the pandemic and becoming endemic.
Best, SH
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-boss-says-covid-19-hospitalizations-are-comparatively-low-as-us-records-most-ever-cases-in-a-single-day/ar-AASgWfr?ocid=uxbndlbing
Is that looking at statistics for the country in aggregate?
The conclusion seems very different than this:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
Perhaps the hospitalizations are more concentrated now so the aggregate country numbers don’t reflect the situation in specific hospitals?
Did you read the article you linked? It is in no way positive nor encouraging
yes. The CDC data is national.
Don't trust media to not sensationalize everything.
But, again, cases are setting records. Hospitalizations (so far) are significantly lagging cases.
If the hospitalizations aren’t evenly distributed, it’s possible that both lower national numbers and very high regional/local numbers could be true.
I didn't say it was positive or negative. It's actually somewhat neutral to positive. Cases are way up. Hospitalizations (so far) are lagging considerably. If you look at the UK and South Africa data (linked in the article), hospitalizations never did catch up as most cases of Omicron were minor.
Flu is actually shooting up as fast or faster than Covid. Tis the season, and all that.
We need to recalibrate our expectations and only look at hospitalizations (serious cases) and not look at total case numbers. The fact is that you are likely to see 100,000 cases per day next year and every year during Covid/flu season. But with vaccinations and weaker strains, you are (hopefully) going to see lower death rates.
For comparision, here are flu results for 2019-2020. Note 38 million total cases with 22,000 total deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020/archive-09292021.html
This is (eventually) where Covid probably ends up, possibly soon if Omicron takes over. You have hundreds of thousands of cases per day but only a couple hundred associated deaths.
That's why I'm suggesting we should be looking at the hospitalization/death numbers (still not good) and not the total caseload numbers for Covid. We need to reprogram our expectations moving forward.
Hospitalizations are good to look at, but you seen to be discounting hospital reports in favor of aggregate numbers:
CNN Headlines this am:
"6 Georgia health systems seeing 100 to 200% increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations".
So called statistics like this are meaningless. Were there 750,000 people hospitalized and now there are 1.5 million ? Or were 9 people in the hospital and now there are 18......
to attend FUN or not should not even be a choice. IT, plus ALL other shows of any kind should be canceled for at least the next 2 months.
, perhaps longer. Just not right to possibly become a carrier for this Virus without even knowing it.
It should be law! The law should encompass strict measures and compensate where appropriate.....but certainly NOT the ever greedy airlines trying to suck the last cent out of your pocket.
Common sense and YOUR own health and welfare should always prevail over money!
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!
I'm discounting news reports in deference to CDC data. The media likes to hype. The aggregate data has to, of necessity, include the individual hospital data. That is what they are aggregating.
The CDC data you’re quoting don’t seem relevant to me in trying to understand the situation on hospitals because it’s aggregating nation wide. Hospital capacity per region seems more useful.
And in any event, hospitalizations are going up which we can see in the data.
You can go find that data if you want it. What seems completely irrelevant is "100% increase in 6 hospitals in GA". That could be 2 cases rather than 1 case last week. GA is also not Florida.
Looking at a single random hospital is useless in assessing the current variant or the current national trend. If you want to look at Orange County FL, go ahead.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
What does it show?
Oh boy, Here comes the leader of the debate team.
It's all just statistics unless it's someone you know. I received this text from my sister last night about her dear friend and colleague from a local charity store. This is a picture of us together two weeks ago. She is a very funny, vivacious and kind young lady who is now fighting for her life:
https://covidactnow.org/us/florida-fl/?s=27511639
Current hospitalizations in Florida are going up, but they are ONE-FIFTH what they were in September. That is despite the huge surge in cases which now has case numbers higher than September.
Of course, hospitalizations can lag cases by up to 2 weeks. But the data is consistent with UK and South Africa data which show high transmissibility but as much as 80% lower severity for Omicron.
And even those numbers aren't terribly helpful. If 80% of the hospitalizations are unvaccinated and you are vaccinated. If 80% of the deaths are 75+ years old and you are 55. Etc.
Everyone needs to consider their own risk tolerance.
Sorry to hear about this. I hope she pulls through!
The people I know who have lost a family member to Covid have a much different perspective than the ones I know who haven’t. It’s raw and very emotional.
Also, note this little factoid:
"Florida has reported having 6,392 staffed adult ICU beds. 4,157 are filled by non-COVID patients and 453 are filled by COVID patients. Overall, 4,610 out of 6,392 (72%) are filled. This suggests some ability to absorb an increase in COVID cases. About this data..."
Florida has a 72% ICU occupancy but 90% of that is from non-Covid cases. This is one of those complex factoids. It means that Covid is not the reason for the high occupancy of ICU. HOWEVER, if you consider the non-Covid patients to be the baseline, it means that a huge surge in COVID could overwhelm the vacancies. HOWEVER, that requires an additional 1700 Covid ICU patients against a current 453 or an increase of 400%
This is neither an argument for caution or for abandoning caution. It's a plea to consider the totality of facts in making your personal risk assessment. [Which also includes other "risks" like flu, driving, flying, parasites, extreme weather, venereal diseases, smoking, etc.]
LOL. I simply posted a link to CDC numbers. Someone else decided they wanted to debate the CDC numbers.
I see on the F.U.N. site Eagle Eye Rare Coins is taking a pass
The entertainment can never be overdressed....except in burlesque
I’m guessing most people are doing this. Do you think people aren’t doing this?
Wise and proactive folks.
Thanks. I added it above.
FUN: "NO is still the word of the day..."
Including lots of NO shows.
If I was in a highly susceptible group I would consider passing, but if you feel you can hide from catching 'omicron' in the next 6 months, you are fooling yourself.
It may not be a big deal to get it for some but I’m guessing a lot of people can avoid it pretty easily if they they are not in a front line job. Just use online meetings and order deliveries.
It does come down to basic math. Yes, this variant appears to be 'milder' but (hypothetically) if 10 times more people catch it while causing only a fourth of the hospitalizations of Delta, you will still have a major issue.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
I would shorten that timeline to 2 months, and I generally agree with the inevitability of catching Omnicron and hope and believe that this Omnicron wave may be the crescendo event of the pandemic. While I may not be at high risk of severe illness/hospitalization/death, I am very susceptible to being extremely put out by air travel snafus, restaurant closures, being ill away from home, etc., and I would do anything in my power to reduce my likelihood of being so inconvenienced. YMMV
@jmlanzaf said>
Here i go getting banned again. In the third person as a generalized response.
You want to wear a mask and breath on me, I'll buy you a convention center bottle of water.
You want to casually breath on me from your personal platform of medical ignorance and sociopathic blindness, I'll be entering what you might consider to be your personal space to knee you in the groin. That will be my "Stand Your Ground" response to your assault on me. Bring your gun. I'm old and don't need the money. Your GoFundMe site can pay off your lawyers.
If one might offer reductio ad absurdum, expect a proportionate response. If one might believe some moron with a loaded weapon should be allowed with 100 feet of a President because of his 2nd Amendment rights, breath on this one as his proxy.
And to the fourth grader who misspelled it, try this sentence. "The illiterate moron and intellectually challenged numismatist flew up through the flue of the chimney and headed south to Florida to pass along his asymptomatic flu". Forget about the positions of various American politicians. Jair Bolsonaro is the COVID Man of the Year.
Remember that old political throw-away line "I like un-educated people". It's a matter of record that a thorough epidemiological response plan was trashed in early 2017 by the federal government. And real men don't wear masks.
Except during Family Day at the US Capitol.
@jmlanza makes some excellent points about curating information. He sometimes raises points for intellectual consideration without absenting the "proper" debating pronouns. It's a benefit to this venue. A pain in the butt, but thought-provoking.
The old saying; Statistics never lie, but liars use statistics.
Thanks for compiling this list. There are hundreds of dealers on the FUN attendee site, the vast majority of which are those I have never heard of, many along the lines of “Smith’s Coin and Pawn, Somewhere, Indiana”. I suspect there’s no easy way to know what these dealers are doing, but it would be interesting.
It’s too bad folks have to argue. If you want to go, go. If you want to stay home, stay home. No need to argue.
I am really looking forward to reading the show reports.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
It will be interesting for sure to see the turnout- I’ll post a show report with some pics. It’s a 2.5 hour drive for me so no biggie. I wear a KN95 mask all day every day anyway as I see patients and do surgery. I was just about the only person with a KN95 at Summer FUN this year.
Omicron surge is 'unlike anything we've ever seen,' expert says
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
Before this thread inevitably gets locked, I wanted to suggest that someone create a simple accounting thread of who will and won't be attending the show. Or not.
I have a feeling the mods took a week off
A thread for FUN cancellations is a good ida