GOLD AND SILVER, ECONOMIC NEWS, COINS, 2018
derryb
Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
good explanation on the bond market
"The Fed is tightening monetary policy not because the economy is robust but because they are desperate to normalize interest rates and their own balance sheet to prepare for the next recession. If the Fed has to stimulate the economy before rates get to 3.25%, they will run out of room to cut rates before the job is done. That will force the Fed to print money again in a new quantitative easing program, QE4.”
"That’s why the Fed needs to trim its balance sheet — so they can blow it up again. In short, the Fed is raising rates and reducing the money supply at the wrong time for the wrong reason. The Fed is preparing for the next recession but will probably cause a recession by trying."
More QE? Gold loves QE.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
Gold loves QE
Kinda tough to prove that. Best gold performance was pre QE.....2002-2008 when it went up 4 fold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Everything went up during that period, until all of a sudden it didn't. If you recall that followed the FED dropping interest rates to stop the dot.com bubble bleeding. Can't happen again, right?
Gold loves the FED and its QE. And, as the FED's number one cheerleader here, gold probably loves you too.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
All assets go up over time. Productive assets go up more.
as the FED's number one cheerleader here, gold probably loves you too
I ain't nobody's cheerleader, and doubt gold loves anything, but I do loves me. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That was a good read. Thanks.
We are in interesting times.... Many seem to believe the economy will continue to grow/expand.... if so, the dollar may strengthen... and gold will dip.... or so the 'logic' goes (not that there is a hell of a lot of logic in all this). Should be fun to follow as we stack... Cheers, RickO
Got my first 'tax cut' paycheck today. Decent little chunk of extra change in my pocket. What to do what to do.
Mine posts tomorrow. I will follow up with exact percentages.
I am anticipating ~3-4% more on top of my 3% raise. A windfall!
I got a $5 raise on my social security check.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
No windfall here. It appears to be ~1% less in Fed taxes. That is based on my meager salary of course.
I believe it will be next pay period before that can be confirmed as how much was applied is in question. Oh well, at least my 3% raise came through.
Hey, me too. Let's do lunch.
Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yep. Still stuck in the ditch with tens of millions suckeling at the gov't teat.
According to jobs website Glassdoor, the annual median base pay in the U.S. grew two percent year-over-year last month to $51,556. The pay growth ended a six-month stretch of deceleration. The Glassdoor Local Pay Reports show pay growth ticked up slightly from a revised 1.7 percent growth last month, ending a six-month stretch of deceleration.
“After six consecutive months of falling pay growth, workers got some positive news with a slight uptick in average wage growth to two percent,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Mill Valley, CA-based Glassdoor.
Anyone see prices increasing?> @cohodk said:
Are they keeping up with consumer prices?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I can't remember in my lifetime that they ever did.
Don't know the date of your source, but it does clearly state there has been growth and it is accelerating.
And in a country of 330 million, "tens of millions", is that 30 million?, doesn't seem so bad and should be expected.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well, why don't you post the CPI and wage growth numbers?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There is wage growth and it's flat against inflation. Wage growth has been in the ditch for over a decade now while overall incomes have shown decent gains thanks to pump and dump markets.
The tens of millions is on the order of 200 million Americans on the dole in one form or another.
I don't need government figures to tell me what I see in the real world.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Because you know what you don't know....at least that's a start.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The more you know the more you realize how much you don't know. Knowing what you don't know is humbling.
And nobody knows noses like neo-synephrine.
I been a bit congested lately. Ford announcing they are canceling all sedans has me down. 
Ford announcing they are canceling all sedans has me down.
Will be interesting to see what happens when gas prices spike the next time. Whether that’s 3 months or 3 years down the road is beyond my little brain.
Gold Leaving US Vaults
"The US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency has been called into question. It faces some tough competition. The tariffs introduced by the US administration as an instrument of coercion against other countries are failing to bolster the greenback, which may soon face headwinds. An international currency war looms as a possibility. This makes investors look for other options. Indeed, why should other countries rely on a US dollar that is not backed by gold or anything but “the good faith and credit of the American worker,” when America itself is not trusted internationally?"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It all sounded great until the author writes such unsubstantiated nonsense as this "The gold bars that the US claims to hold are of low purity and do not conform to international industry standards". Every word just became BS. Too bad.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I've read much the same thing many times, and wouldn't it be nice if gov.com was ever held accountable for what's really in the vaults? Ever.
Then again, Bernanke said that gold is only a commodity and Mnuchin said that all the gold is there, except that nobody ever gets to verify it. Not much difference between that and the Kennedy Assassination files that we never get to know about.
Of the people, by the people, but not for the people - only for the special interests. And you wonder why anyone should keep stacking a little early instead of too late?
I knew it would happen.
The absence of evidence never got in the way of a good conspiracy theory.
"I’ve learned that is there no such thing as evidence that persuades a conspiracy theorist," Posner said. "It’s sort of a psycho-religious belief, in part. They just know it’s true even if they can’t quite prove it."
"It doesn’t matter how much evidence to the contrary you raise, these hardcore conspiracy theories will discredit the source of the evidence," van Prooijen said. "It’s very easy to dismiss evidence as being part of the conspiracy, being part of the coverup. So it’s very hard to disprove a conspiracy theory."
Fascinating to see this play out exactly on this forum. Read the rest of the article here... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/12/23/conspiracy-theory-psychology/815121001/
I love this quote...
"Conspiracy theories also appeal to people's need to feel special and unique because it gives them a sense of possessing secret knowledge, according to a study in the July 2017 edition of Social Psychology."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hey derryb
That $5.00 raise on your social security was offset by a $7.00 increase in medicare for elderly.
I read multiple reports every day and belong to 2 financial advisory groups and I've found that when I think silver and gold will go up and I buy like crazy my purchases must affect the curve cause it goes down and when I think its going to go down, I sell and It goes up. I'm going to just ride the roller coaster and enjoy the thrills and quit thinking so much.
Bob Sr CEO Fieldtechs
They're still making the Ford Mustang and one other car...I forget which.
Gas prices in CT are over $3.00/gallon as of today...
Government of the wealthy, by the wealthy and for the wealthy shall not perish........
Viewing Employment Without Rose-Colored Glasses
Gubermint statistics adjusted for reality.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do folks really try this hard to be so ignorant?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"It doesn’t matter how much evidence to the contrary you raise, these hardcore conspiracy theories will discredit the source of the evidence," van Prooijen said. "It’s very easy to dismiss evidence as being part of the conspiracy, being part of the coverup. So it’s very hard to disprove a conspiracy theory."
Real evidence isn't 98% redacted. Real audits are done for public consumption. One of us is missing the point.
I knew it would happen.
And one of us is proving it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
3.9% unemployment!!! Dang. Lowesthe rate in 18 years.
Anyone having trouble finding good qualified workers?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk Lots of complaints around Texas about lack of oil field workers/truck drivers out west, and high tech & construction workers in Austin and the other big cities.
https://houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Labor-shortages-in-West-Texas-getting-worse-12790619.php
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Hard to believe the shortage isn't driving wages and inflation harder than it is.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Hard to believe the shortage isn't driving wages and inflation harder than it is.
It will. It's beginning. I just noted that several guys I used to know have popped up again in different companies after leaving the industry 5 years ago. Other guys have disappeared again or moved up.
There are significant price increases coming on several items now, and particularly in fabricated or cast steel from China.
The Fed just hit their 2% inflation "target". We'll see what happens now. With the push for higher minimum wages and the subsequent effect it will have on the workers who are above the minimum wage level, I would expect wage demand pressure to start building.
It does appear that cost-push inflation is starting.
I knew it would happen.
don't need quals to serve food
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
law of supply and demand eventually sets wages. Cost of higher wages eventually results in inflation - the consumer bears the expenses of consumption.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Happy Days are here again. Almost as good as it was just before the last crash.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Crash...please define.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You know, that sudden about face in 2008 right after everything was rainbows.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'm not going to get into your guys entertaining battle, but I can speak on finding skilled labor as a hiring engineer in the northeast (Boston)
Electricians, technicians, mechanics, etc..... it takes almost 3 to 4 months to find a qualified person in this job market, and money is not the issue, we pay top dollar. People have too many options. We have to find creative ways to attract workers. It's not enough to give them the $40 hr, and the full bennifet package. They want the 2 to 3 weeks vac to start, they want tools payed for. They want child care, etc.....
I'm telling you it's getting ridiculous. If your a manufacturing manager and you want to keep a plant running you have to keep your people and know most millennials are going for a degree program and no one is learning a trade,
the skilled labor force is aging and know how scarce they are around here. The average age of an electrician in mass is 54, that says something about the labor pool going forward.
So I would tell the 20 somethings to get a skilled trade certificate, like a licence electrician, industrial control tech, these skills will be in very high demand for the next several decades, even with all the robotics, we still have to repair them when they fail.
eBay ID-bruceshort978
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If you fiddle with the formula long enough you will get the impressive results you seek. BLS data is BS.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I was looking for something that defined magnitude of price decline or duration. You know, maybe like a 70% drop that after 7 years and is still 60% lower and has lost 4-5x it's value relative to other assets.
Seems like real evidence from your fellow forum members supports the BLS.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
BLS data is BS. They start with a result and then build a formula that delivers it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World
"central banks are the market"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Where is that article on conspiracy theories?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Please expound. How do they do this? Please provide statistical reasoning for your claim.
Your fellow forum members have already stated that they see difficulty in hiring workers. Are they BS?
https://bls.gov/jlt/news.htm
https://marketwatch.com/story/for-the-first-time-ever-theres-a-job-opening-for-every-unemployed-worker-2018-05-08
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
expoundination #1
expoundination #2
The official unemployment rate should accurately reflect how many workers that want full time employment do not have it. Of course you believe that it does, but you are once again wrong. As with most official government data one must realize that figures lie when liars figure.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The World's Biggest Hedge Fund Derisks Massively, Goes Short Stocks
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey