GOLD AND SILVER, ECONOMIC NEWS, COINS, 2018

derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

good explanation on the bond market

"The Fed is tightening monetary policy not because the economy is robust but because they are desperate to normalize interest rates and their own balance sheet to prepare for the next recession. If the Fed has to stimulate the economy before rates get to 3.25%, they will run out of room to cut rates before the job is done. That will force the Fed to print money again in a new quantitative easing program, QE4.”

"That’s why the Fed needs to trim its balance sheet — so they can blow it up again. In short, the Fed is raising rates and reducing the money supply at the wrong time for the wrong reason. The Fed is preparing for the next recession but will probably cause a recession by trying."

More QE? Gold loves QE.

“We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

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Comments

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold loves QE

    Kinda tough to prove that. Best gold performance was pre QE.....2002-2008 when it went up 4 fold.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 30, 2018 1:31PM

    @cohodk said:
    Gold loves QE

    Kinda tough to prove that. Best gold performance was pre QE.....2002-2008 when it went up 4 fold.

    Everything went up during that period, until all of a sudden it didn't. If you recall that followed the FED dropping interest rates to stop the dot.com bubble bleeding. Can't happen again, right?

    Gold loves the FED and its QE. And, as the FED's number one cheerleader here, gold probably loves you too.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 30, 2018 3:00PM

    All assets go up over time. Productive assets go up more.

    as the FED's number one cheerleader here, gold probably loves you too

    I ain't nobody's cheerleader, and doubt gold loves anything, but I do loves me. Lol


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,256 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That was a good read. Thanks.

  • rickoricko Posts: 69,503 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We are in interesting times.... Many seem to believe the economy will continue to grow/expand.... if so, the dollar may strengthen... and gold will dip.... or so the 'logic' goes (not that there is a hell of a lot of logic in all this). Should be fun to follow as we stack... Cheers, RickO

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 3,930 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 31, 2018 9:26AM

    Got my first 'tax cut' paycheck today. Decent little chunk of extra change in my pocket. What to do what to do.

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭✭

    @DrBuster said:
    Got my first 'tax cut' paycheck today. Decent little chunk of extra change in my pocket. What to do what to do.

    Mine posts tomorrow. I will follow up with exact percentages.

    I am anticipating ~3-4% more on top of my 3% raise. A windfall!

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I got a $5 raise on my social security check.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭✭

    No windfall here. It appears to be ~1% less in Fed taxes. That is based on my meager salary of course. :(

    I believe it will be next pay period before that can be confirmed as how much was applied is in question. Oh well, at least my 3% raise came through. :)

  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 13,474 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    I got a $5 raise on my social security check.

    Hey, me too. Let's do lunch.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Yep. Still stuck in the ditch with tens of millions suckeling at the gov't teat.

    According to jobs website Glassdoor, the annual median base pay in the U.S. grew two percent year-over-year last month to $51,556. The pay growth ended a six-month stretch of deceleration. The Glassdoor Local Pay Reports show pay growth ticked up slightly from a revised 1.7 percent growth last month, ending a six-month stretch of deceleration.

    “After six consecutive months of falling pay growth, workers got some positive news with a slight uptick in average wage growth to two percent,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Mill Valley, CA-based Glassdoor.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Anyone see prices increasing?> @cohodk said:

    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Are they keeping up with consumer prices?

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • OPAOPA Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Anyone see prices increasing?> @cohodk said:

    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Are they keeping up with consumer prices?

    I can't remember in my lifetime that they ever did.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 27, 2018 11:14AM

    @VanHalen said:

    @cohodk said:
    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Yep. Still stuck in the ditch with tens of millions suckeling at the gov't teat.

    According to jobs website Glassdoor, the annual median base pay in the U.S. grew two percent year-over-year last month to $51,556. The pay growth ended a six-month stretch of deceleration. The Glassdoor Local Pay Reports show pay growth ticked up slightly from a revised 1.7 percent growth last month, ending a six-month stretch of deceleration.

    “After six consecutive months of falling pay growth, workers got some positive news with a slight uptick in average wage growth to two percent,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Mill Valley, CA-based Glassdoor.

    Don't know the date of your source, but it does clearly state there has been growth and it is accelerating.

    And in a country of 330 million, "tens of millions", is that 30 million?, doesn't seem so bad and should be expected.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Anyone see prices increasing?> @cohodk said:

    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Are they keeping up with consumer prices?

    Well, why don't you post the CPI and wage growth numbers?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @VanHalen said:

    @cohodk said:
    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Yep. Still stuck in the ditch with tens of millions suckeling at the gov't teat.

    According to jobs website Glassdoor, the annual median base pay in the U.S. grew two percent year-over-year last month to $51,556. The pay growth ended a six-month stretch of deceleration. The Glassdoor Local Pay Reports show pay growth ticked up slightly from a revised 1.7 percent growth last month, ending a six-month stretch of deceleration.

    “After six consecutive months of falling pay growth, workers got some positive news with a slight uptick in average wage growth to two percent,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Mill Valley, CA-based Glassdoor.

    Don't know the date of your source, but it does clearly state there has been growth and it is accelerating.

    And in a country of 330 million, "tens of millions", is that 30 million?, doesn't seem so bad and should be expected.

    There is wage growth and it's flat against inflation. Wage growth has been in the ditch for over a decade now while overall incomes have shown decent gains thanks to pump and dump markets.

    The tens of millions is on the order of 200 million Americans on the dole in one form or another.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Anyone see prices increasing?> @cohodk said:

    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Are they keeping up with consumer prices?

    Well, why don't you post the CPI and wage growth numbers?

    I don't need government figures to tell me what I see in the real world.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Anyone see prices increasing?> @cohodk said:

    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Are they keeping up with consumer prices?

    Well, why don't you post the CPI and wage growth numbers?

    I don't need government figures to tell me what I see in the real world.

    Because you know what you don't know....at least that's a start. :)


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Anyone see prices increasing?> @cohodk said:

    Anyone see the wage growth numbers this morning?

    Are they keeping up with consumer prices?

    Well, why don't you post the CPI and wage growth numbers?

    I don't need government figures to tell me what I see in the real world.

    Because you know what you don't know....at least that's a start. :)

    The more you know the more you realize how much you don't know. Knowing what you don't know is humbling.

    And nobody knows noses like neo-synephrine. :) I been a bit congested lately. Ford announcing they are canceling all sedans has me down. :'(

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭

    @VanHalen said:

    Ford announcing they are canceling all sedans has me down. :'(

    Will be interesting to see what happens when gas prices spike the next time. Whether that’s 3 months or 3 years down the road is beyond my little brain.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold Leaving US Vaults

    "The US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency has been called into question. It faces some tough competition. The tariffs introduced by the US administration as an instrument of coercion against other countries are failing to bolster the greenback, which may soon face headwinds. An international currency war looms as a possibility. This makes investors look for other options. Indeed, why should other countries rely on a US dollar that is not backed by gold or anything but “the good faith and credit of the American worker,” when America itself is not trusted internationally?"

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 29, 2018 4:44PM

    @derryb said:
    Gold Leaving US Vaults

    "The US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency has been called into question. It faces some tough competition. The tariffs introduced by the US administration as an instrument of coercion against other countries are failing to bolster the greenback, which may soon face headwinds. An international currency war looms as a possibility. This makes investors look for other options. Indeed, why should other countries rely on a US dollar that is not backed by gold or anything but “the good faith and credit of the American worker,” when America itself is not trusted internationally?"

    It all sounded great until the author writes such unsubstantiated nonsense as this "The gold bars that the US claims to hold are of low purity and do not conform to international industry standards". Every word just became BS. Too bad.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,828 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I've read much the same thing many times, and wouldn't it be nice if gov.com was ever held accountable for what's really in the vaults? Ever.

    Then again, Bernanke said that gold is only a commodity and Mnuchin said that all the gold is there, except that nobody ever gets to verify it. Not much difference between that and the Kennedy Assassination files that we never get to know about.

    Of the people, by the people, but not for the people - only for the special interests. And you wonder why anyone should keep stacking a little early instead of too late?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2, 2018 3:38AM

    The absence of evidence never got in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

    "I’ve learned that is there no such thing as evidence that persuades a conspiracy theorist," Posner said. "It’s sort of a psycho-religious belief, in part. They just know it’s true even if they can’t quite prove it."

    "It doesn’t matter how much evidence to the contrary you raise, these hardcore conspiracy theories will discredit the source of the evidence," van Prooijen said. "It’s very easy to dismiss evidence as being part of the conspiracy, being part of the coverup. So it’s very hard to disprove a conspiracy theory."

    Fascinating to see this play out exactly on this forum. Read the rest of the article here... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/12/23/conspiracy-theory-psychology/815121001/

    I love this quote...
    "Conspiracy theories also appeal to people's need to feel special and unique because it gives them a sense of possessing secret knowledge, according to a study in the July 2017 edition of Social Psychology."


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • bobsrbobsr Posts: 354 ✭✭✭

    Hey derryb
    That $5.00 raise on your social security was offset by a $7.00 increase in medicare for elderly.
    I read multiple reports every day and belong to 2 financial advisory groups and I've found that when I think silver and gold will go up and I buy like crazy my purchases must affect the curve cause it goes down and when I think its going to go down, I sell and It goes up. I'm going to just ride the roller coaster and enjoy the thrills and quit thinking so much.
    Bob Sr CEO Fieldtechs

  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Wingsrule said:

    @VanHalen said:

    Ford announcing they are canceling all sedans has me down. :'(

    Will be interesting to see what happens when gas prices spike the next time. Whether that’s 3 months or 3 years down the road is beyond my little brain.

    They're still making the Ford Mustang and one other car...I forget which.

    Gas prices in CT are over $3.00/gallon as of today...

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    ...... Of the people, by the people, but not for the people - only for the special interests.

    Government of the wealthy, by the wealthy and for the wealthy shall not perish........

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Viewing Employment Without Rose-Colored Glasses

    Gubermint statistics adjusted for reality.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2, 2018 7:18PM

    @derryb said:
    Viewing Employment Without Rose-Colored Glasses

    Gubermint statistics adjusted for reality.

    Do folks really try this hard to be so ignorant?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,828 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 3, 2018 9:04AM

    "It doesn’t matter how much evidence to the contrary you raise, these hardcore conspiracy theories will discredit the source of the evidence," van Prooijen said. "It’s very easy to dismiss evidence as being part of the conspiracy, being part of the coverup. So it’s very hard to disprove a conspiracy theory."

    Real evidence isn't 98% redacted. Real audits are done for public consumption. One of us is missing the point.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    "It doesn’t matter how much evidence to the contrary you raise, these hardcore conspiracy theories will discredit the source of the evidence," van Prooijen said. "It’s very easy to dismiss evidence as being part of the conspiracy, being part of the coverup. So it’s very hard to disprove a conspiracy theory."

    Real evidence isn't 98% redacted. Real audits are done for public consumption. One of us is missing the point.

    And one of us is proving it. ;)


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭

    3.9% unemployment!!! Dang. Lowesthe rate in 18 years.

    Anyone having trouble finding good qualified workers?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,341 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 4, 2018 7:21AM

    @cohodk Lots of complaints around Texas about lack of oil field workers/truck drivers out west, and high tech & construction workers in Austin and the other big cities.

    https://houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Labor-shortages-in-West-Texas-getting-worse-12790619.php

  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Hard to believe the shortage isn't driving wages and inflation harder than it is.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,828 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Hard to believe the shortage isn't driving wages and inflation harder than it is.

    It will. It's beginning. I just noted that several guys I used to know have popped up again in different companies after leaving the industry 5 years ago. Other guys have disappeared again or moved up.

    There are significant price increases coming on several items now, and particularly in fabricated or cast steel from China.

    The Fed just hit their 2% inflation "target". We'll see what happens now. With the push for higher minimum wages and the subsequent effect it will have on the workers who are above the minimum wage level, I would expect wage demand pressure to start building.

    It does appear that cost-push inflation is starting.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    3.9% unemployment!!! Dang. Lowesthe rate in 18 years.

    Anyone having trouble finding good qualified workers?

    don't need quals to serve food

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dpoole said:
    Hard to believe the shortage isn't driving wages and inflation harder than it is.

    law of supply and demand eventually sets wages. Cost of higher wages eventually results in inflation - the consumer bears the expenses of consumption.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    3.9% unemployment!!! Dang. Lowesthe rate in 18 years.

    Happy Days are here again. Almost as good as it was just before the last crash.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 6, 2018 5:45AM

    Crash...please define.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Crash...please define.

    You know, that sudden about face in 2008 right after everything was rainbows.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • BruceSBruceS Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm not going to get into your guys entertaining battle, but I can speak on finding skilled labor as a hiring engineer in the northeast (Boston)

    Electricians, technicians, mechanics, etc..... it takes almost 3 to 4 months to find a qualified person in this job market, and money is not the issue, we pay top dollar. People have too many options. We have to find creative ways to attract workers. It's not enough to give them the $40 hr, and the full bennifet package. They want the 2 to 3 weeks vac to start, they want tools payed for. They want child care, etc.....

    I'm telling you it's getting ridiculous. If your a manufacturing manager and you want to keep a plant running you have to keep your people and know most millennials are going for a degree program and no one is learning a trade,

    the skilled labor force is aging and know how scarce they are around here. The average age of an electrician in mass is 54, that says something about the labor pool going forward.

    So I would tell the 20 somethings to get a skilled trade certificate, like a licence electrician, industrial control tech, these skills will be in very high demand for the next several decades, even with all the robotics, we still have to repair them when they fail.


    eBay ID-bruceshort978
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  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    3.9% unemployment!!! Dang. Lowesthe rate in 18 years.

    If you fiddle with the formula long enough you will get the impressive results you seek. BLS data is BS.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 7, 2018 2:54AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Crash...please define.

    You know, that sudden about face in 2008 right after everything was rainbows.

    I was looking for something that defined magnitude of price decline or duration. You know, maybe like a 70% drop that after 7 years and is still 60% lower and has lost 4-5x it's value relative to other assets.

    Seems like real evidence from your fellow forum members supports the BLS.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Seems like real evidence from your fellow forum members supports the BLS.

    BLS data is BS. They start with a result and then build a formula that delivers it.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World

    "central banks are the market"

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World

    "central banks are the market"

    Where is that article on conspiracy theories?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,840 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 8, 2018 6:01PM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Seems like real evidence from your fellow forum members supports the BLS.

    BLS data is BS. They start with a result and then build a formula that delivers it.

    Please expound. How do they do this? Please provide statistical reasoning for your claim.

    Your fellow forum members have already stated that they see difficulty in hiring workers. Are they BS?

    https://bls.gov/jlt/news.htm

    https://marketwatch.com/story/for-the-first-time-ever-theres-a-job-opening-for-every-unemployed-worker-2018-05-08


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2018 7:52AM

    expoundination #1

    expoundination #2

    The official unemployment rate should accurately reflect how many workers that want full time employment do not have it. Of course you believe that it does, but you are once again wrong. As with most official government data one must realize that figures lie when liars figure.

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

  • derrybderryb Posts: 27,428 ✭✭✭✭✭

    “We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” – Ayn Rand

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