It could be as simple as limited staff focusing on more current priorities, inspecting the EU returns and making the good ones available for sale as they have time.
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
@MsMorrisine said:
7,598 - 4,340 = 3,248 sold out of inventory
vs
1,390
WTF?
Well, think about it.
Of the 3248 out of inventory, 1390 was the net increase in sales. The conflicting 1858 sets were either returns and/or replacements, and would have lowered the number sold, thus reducing the gross sales to net sales.
So, if this current inventory number goes to zero and they don't shove another 25k or 1k back out, will the Mint list the item as sold out and publish the final mintage numbers? will that take 2 months? 5?
@dmwest said:
So, if this current inventory number goes to zero and they don't shove another 25k or 1k back out, will the Mint list the item as sold out and publish the final mintage numbers? will that take 2 months? 5?
No, they'll list it as "currently unavailable" first. Assuming they don't go back and strike some more, there will be a wait of a few weeks while all returns, orders and replacements are finalized. (Remember, replacements can be requested to be replaced, so it takes a while for inventory (or lack thereof) to become stable.)
Then I assume there will have to be a final audit to make sure there isn't stock left or something stuck up in the computer system before it gets its "sold out" flag. That'll probably take a month or two.
The mintage, will be the final sales number, so we'll get a pretty good idea long before it's officially sold out. Right now, that looks to be around 195.5K.
@bestday said:
The 225th 4 pc silver medal set coming out in October ,will suck the air, attention and money from the enhanced sets
I don't think the target audiences are the same group anymore.
The medal set will be bought by the collectors (and depending on the mintage, flippers), who aren't put off by paying $200 for 4-1oz silver rounds.
The EU sets are going to go to those casual annual set collectors. (The mint and proof sets are still selling about 5K/week.) If nurmaler's (spelled the name right this time) numbers are correct, they sold 3.5K EU sets last week. I seriously doubt they're selling that many to the guys who've already been in this circus for 6 weeks now.
While the AmLib medals will suck the air out of the EU set in numis circles, if the mint keeps the set on the site even when sold out, I think they'll still be bought on the aftermarket by these new customers. I think even if they strike the other 25-30K they'll still sell out before Christmas.
@BackroadJunkie said:
4340 (nurumailer's post from yesterday)+191,206=195,546
Last week it was: 7598 + 189,816 = 197,414
oops
7598 remaining + 189,816 sold = _________ ?
Dunno, my math says 7598+189816 = 197414.
What am I missing?
I didn't understand the point until later.
I didn't understand the point of a remainder plus a sales.
there's a mystery ~1.9k sets unaccounted for in the sales report and inventory report.
possibly returns? seems high but not impossible. odd, though. it'd mean only about 600 kept from last week?
well, we can't really know the lag between returns and restock - if there is any.
And who knows their if they are doing a running accurate accounting for returns going back on sale and returns pulled out of availability for resale due to damage. One thing I am 99% sure of is there will not be any striking of additional sets or singles to make the 225k initial production number. Extras were struck in the initial run to cover these "rejects" but not 10's of thousands.
@BackroadJunkie said:
4340 (nurumailer's post from yesterday)+191,206=195,546
Last week it was: 7598 + 189,816 = 197,414
oops
7598 remaining + 189,816 sold = _________ ?
Dunno, my math says 7598+189816 = 197414.
What am I missing?
I didn't understand the point until later.
I didn't understand the point of a remainder plus a sales.
there's a mystery ~1.9k sets unaccounted for in the sales report and inventory report.
possibly returns? seems high but not impossible. odd, though. it'd mean only about 600 kept from last week?
well, we can't really know the lag between returns and restock - if there is any.
And who knows their if they are doing a running accurate accounting for returns going back on sale and returns pulled out of availability for resale due to damage. One thing I am 99% sure of is there will not be any striking of additional sets or singles to make the 225k initial production number. Extras were struck in the initial run to cover these "rejects" but not 10's of thousands.
I agree, although there may be 3 different categories here accounting for 40,000 to 60,000 sets:
1) Cancellations - those should have gone right back on sale
2) Returns for damage - those need to be inspected, possibility rehabilitated before they go on sale or are scrapped
3) Returns for buyer's change of heart - I think you can do this at your expense rather than the Mint. That should yield sets that are reinspected and then put back on sale as they need no rehabilitation.
I remain intrigued/concerned that 20,000 sets may suddenly reappear for sale at some point. I still think it's a $50 set down the road, but the constant jerking around of availability and sales numbers is keeping us stalled and unable to get on the road. LOL. It actually may turn out to be a $50 cent by the time it is all said and done. Sales remain strong for the cents.
When is the Mint finally going to release its hoard of 1913 V Nickels? And about those 1955 DDO Lincolns.... I only want a roll of 50 - is that too much to ask?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
By the way, it seems like sales have accelerated. It could be that it's actually returns that have subsided. But we are running at more like 750 per day at this point.
@jmlanzaf said:
It actually may turn out to be a $50 cent by the time it is all said and done. Sales remain strong for the cents.
Especially if the mintage comes in around 195,000. This would be the lowest mintage Lincoln cent by far.
Who needs a high-mintage 1909-S VDB anyway?
Especially since an S-VDB looks exactly like an "S" (with no VDB) or exactly like a 1909-VDB (with no S) or..heck, it looks exactly like a 1910. The finish on this cent is unique. My 2017-S Lincoln looks nothing like an S-VDB.
By the way, it seems like sales have accelerated. It could be that it's actually returns that have subsided. But we are running at more like 750 per day at this point.
Yeah, 2 to 3 days max (just based on nurmaler's reports). About 680 sets/day over the last 8 days, 960 sets/day over the last 3 days.
I'm going to have to start checking the site if I'm going to get in the last 100...
Comments
they do waffle unsaleable and past the cutoff date coins.
about 11 more days until sell out, I don't see them resetting the number either. it will be a lower mintage set with high re sale value
Thanks for the update.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Mint will open up unsold sets thru end of year
It could be as simple as limited staff focusing on more current priorities, inspecting the EU returns and making the good ones available for sale as they have time.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Did You Miss These Products?
225th Anniversary Enhanced Uncirculated Coin Set SHOP NOW!
How could we miss them?
Don't quote me on that.
New Numbers:
4340 (nurumailer's post from yesterday)+191,206=195,546
Last week it was: 7598 + 189,816 = 197,414
the final mintage is getting closer to 190,000 now, as returns continue to come in
oops
7598 remaining + 189,816 sold = _________ ?
7,598 - 4,340 = 3,248 sold out of inventory
vs
1,390
WTF?
I'm thinking they are subtracting returns from sales but inventory does not reflect everything correctly.
225,000 - 191,206 = 33,794
it's quite possible we have (33,794 - 4,340 remaining in inventory = 29,454) in waiting for backorder status.
Dunno, my math says 7598+189816 = 197414.
What am I missing?
Well, think about it.
Of the 3248 out of inventory, 1390 was the net increase in sales. The conflicting 1858 sets were either returns and/or replacements, and would have lowered the number sold, thus reducing the gross sales to net sales.
The 225th 4 pc silver medal set coming out in October ,will suck the air, attention and money from the enhanced sets
So don't sell any enhanced sets in October ....or November...or....
So, if this current inventory number goes to zero and they don't shove another 25k or 1k back out, will the Mint list the item as sold out and publish the final mintage numbers? will that take 2 months? 5?
Don't quote me on that.
No, they'll list it as "currently unavailable" first. Assuming they don't go back and strike some more, there will be a wait of a few weeks while all returns, orders and replacements are finalized. (Remember, replacements can be requested to be replaced, so it takes a while for inventory (or lack thereof) to become stable.)
Then I assume there will have to be a final audit to make sure there isn't stock left or something stuck up in the computer system before it gets its "sold out" flag. That'll probably take a month or two.
The mintage, will be the final sales number, so we'll get a pretty good idea long before it's officially sold out. Right now, that looks to be around 195.5K.
I don't think the target audiences are the same group anymore.
The medal set will be bought by the collectors (and depending on the mintage, flippers), who aren't put off by paying $200 for 4-1oz silver rounds.
The EU sets are going to go to those casual annual set collectors. (The mint and proof sets are still selling about 5K/week.) If nurmaler's (spelled the name right this time) numbers are correct, they sold 3.5K EU sets last week. I seriously doubt they're selling that many to the guys who've already been in this circus for 6 weeks now.
While the AmLib medals will suck the air out of the EU set in numis circles, if the mint keeps the set on the site even when sold out, I think they'll still be bought on the aftermarket by these new customers. I think even if they strike the other 25-30K they'll still sell out before Christmas.
I didn't understand the point until later.
I didn't understand the point of a remainder plus a sales.
there's a mystery ~1.9k sets unaccounted for in the sales report and inventory report.
possibly returns? seems high but not impossible. odd, though. it'd mean only about 600 kept from last week?
well, we can't really know the lag between returns and restock - if there is any.
Wow! That reminder email from the Mint yesterday really helped!
And who knows their if they are doing a running accurate accounting for returns going back on sale and returns pulled out of availability for resale due to damage. One thing I am 99% sure of is there will not be any striking of additional sets or singles to make the 225k initial production number. Extras were struck in the initial run to cover these "rejects" but not 10's of thousands.
there Is a lot of confusion with published numbers in coin world and number published by the mint.
I wish coin world would skip the mystery 20k dealer and ask why there is a discrepancy with the sales numbers and the inventory numbers posted here.
Thanks for the update.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
I agree, although there may be 3 different categories here accounting for 40,000 to 60,000 sets:
1) Cancellations - those should have gone right back on sale
2) Returns for damage - those need to be inspected, possibility rehabilitated before they go on sale or are scrapped
3) Returns for buyer's change of heart - I think you can do this at your expense rather than the Mint. That should yield sets that are reinspected and then put back on sale as they need no rehabilitation.
I remain intrigued/concerned that 20,000 sets may suddenly reappear for sale at some point. I still think it's a $50 set down the road, but the constant jerking around of availability and sales numbers is keeping us stalled and unable to get on the road. LOL. It actually may turn out to be a $50 cent by the time it is all said and done. Sales remain strong for the cents.
When is the Mint finally going to release its hoard of 1913 V Nickels? And about those 1955 DDO Lincolns.... I only want a roll of 50 - is that too much to ask?
+1
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
We're getting there....
the coins
remember, this is a zincoln with virtually 0 plating bubbles on hundred thousand+ sets.
is there a zincoln hole in a dansco 7070 page?
Especially if the mintage comes in around 195,000. This would be the lowest mintage Lincoln cent by far.
Who needs a high-mintage 1909-S VDB anyway?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Thanks!
Shall we start betting on whether it goes "unavailable" or "sold out"?
By the way, it seems like sales have accelerated. It could be that it's actually returns that have subsided. But we are running at more like 750 per day at this point.
Especially since an S-VDB looks exactly like an "S" (with no VDB) or exactly like a 1909-VDB (with no S) or..heck, it looks exactly like a 1910. The finish on this cent is unique. My 2017-S Lincoln looks nothing like an S-VDB.
sold out only comes after quite a while.
if it does truly go unavailable very, very soon, then that may speed the sold out label.
real us mint personnel from us mint headquarters in dc go out to inventory audit quarterly. They'd get a true count of what's sold.
It would also be a good time for coin world to ask WTF of that huge drop from over 200,000 to well under 200,000
Plus, just try to find a 1909-S VDB in MS70 First Strike!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
LOL.
Note to PCGS and NGC - start awarding "First Strike" labels on early dies states of classic coins. $$$$$$
The Mint will say no more sets sets available .. then , will spring open more sets for sale for Christmas
If nothing else, this thread in entertaining.
Yeah, 2 to 3 days max (just based on nurmaler's reports). About 680 sets/day over the last 8 days, 960 sets/day over the last 3 days.
I'm going to have to start checking the site if I'm going to get in the last 100...
I lose money on everything I sell but make up for it in volume.
imo, this definitely has to do with returns slowing vs a jump in purchases.
Thanks for the update, I think you are correct on returns.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Thanks!
I also think you are correct.
It looks like we will go "unavailable" again over the weekend. Now, if we only knew about the missing 25-30,000 sets.
Returns would be reflected in sales, not in inventory.
The 796 sets sold since yesterday is right in line with the average for the past week.
So, less than 100 sometime this evening or tomorrow morning...
Coin World did query the mint last week about this, but nothing so far...
(Edit: wrong website...)
Backroad, why don't you just buy all the remaining sets?
d2
Don't quote me on that.
'Cause it would make the 8 sets I'm into this product worthless.
(On the other hand, if I had an extra $21K sitting around.... I still wouldn't buy 700 of these things.
)