My guess is a 42 minute sellout. Ya the HH limit is high but here are my rough estimates.
I think the big dealers with their network of buyers will buy roughly 30% of the offering (roughly 38k coins or 3,800 orders). This will take place in the first 10 minutes of ordering if not less. That leaves 87k coins left to the rest of us. Im guessing that another 10% of the mintage will go in full orders of 10 within the first 10 minutes. Thats another 12,500 coins or another 1,250 orders, leaving 74,500 coins. If the average order is 3 coins, that leaves the final number of orders needed to hit a sellout at just under 25k. At 600 orders a minute, that is a total of 42 minutes to sell out.
This is a hyped coin and many people have passed up other coins this year to be able to afford the series. I don't think its unreasonable to estimate a 3 order average. With respects to the 600 orders per minute, the best way I could try to estimate the numbers is to look at previously massively hyped coins and compare the sellout time, mintage and cost. While a totally different series, and a non precious metal, the Eisenhower C&C sold 18k in 10 minutes. I believe the hype is similar to this coin, possibly not as hyped. Thats roughly 1,800 orders per minute, however, the total price is about 1/3 the total of 3 of these coins. I divided 1,800 by 3 to arrive at 600. Yes somewhat flawed logic but best my little brain could come up with.
Love to hear others thoughts on sellout times and why they think that.
Originally posted by: BackroadJunkie Don't forget the 25th ASE set, 5 set HH limit, 100K mintage on that broken-ass old Mint website, and the moaning and complants that followed... It would have sold out much quicker on today's site, probably in less than an hour.
Five years later, that same set is now selling at barely above issue price.
I expect the Merc to sell out within a few hours. 125k may sound like a lot, but it's only half the mintage of the 1916-D.
Might want to save a few bucks for the 2021 Peace dollar.
Im also taking a WAG that the mintage on the dimes will be the lowest of the three. When the quick sellout happens on this issue, the mint will realize they left $$ on the table and increase the mintages of the two offerings.
Originally posted by: OperationButter Im also taking a WAG that the mintage on the dimes will be the lowest of the three. When the quick sellout happens on this issue, the mint will realize they left $$ on the table and increase the mintages of the two offerings.
Great to see our posts!
In this case the latter two issues will be substantially more expensive. I'm wondering whether this will be factored into any decision re: mintage of the latter two issues based on sales of the first. Not apples to apples the way that some prior issues have been like the RP dollar sets.
I am in for 5-7 pieces. I think it will be a quick sellout~24 hours max.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Originally posted by: BackroadJunkie Don't forget the 25th ASE set, 5 set HH limit, 100K mintage on that broken-ass old Mint website, and the moaning and complants that followed... It would have sold out much quicker on today's site, probably in less than an hour.
Five years later, that same set is now selling at barely above issue price.
I expect the Merc to sell out within a few hours. 125k may sound like a lot, but it's only half the mintage of the 1916-D.
Might want to save a few bucks for the 2021 Peace dollar.
Barely above issue price? I see raw sets at almost 100% return on the issue price? So is that now the new barely?
Originally posted by: DIMEMAN If you guys who must.......want to call these coins....go ahead, but they are not. They are nothing more than poorly made modern commens.
Go ahead and spend $160+ as a dime.
I felt the same way about silver eagles when I first saw them in 86. I couldn't figure out why anyone would want them.
Fast forward to today - I love silver eagles.
Maybe you just need more time to see the real beauty of these modern commems
Originally posted by: DIMEMAN If you guys who must.......want to call these coins....go ahead, but they are not. They are nothing more than poorly made modern commens.
Go ahead and spend $160+ as a dime.
I felt the same way about silver eagles when I first saw them in 86. I couldn't figure out why anyone would want them.
Fast forward to today - I love silver eagles.
Maybe you just need more time to see the real beauty of these modern commems
I have always said "never say never".....But I can say this for sure....I will NEVER buy any bullion or modern commen. The mint hasn't made anything pretty and worth collecting (to me) since the 40's.
I might get into classic commens someday, but I doubt that.
When the heck is the mint going to put the price out there? What are they waiting for, a big change in gold prices? Come on already, people need to budget.
When the heck is the mint going to put the price out there? What are they waiting for, a big change in gold prices? Come on already, people need to budget.
Dimeman sounds like a coin collecting relative of mine. He hates all commems or bullion coins and anything put out by the mint as a 'collectible'. He says it not a 'REAL' coin and that anything made explicitly to be collected will never be truly rare or valuable.
I can see where they're both coming from. I do, however, think that these 100th anniversary coins are COOL and artistic and you've gotta love that they are in GOLD. As long as the mint doesn't mark them up too high they may be a good buy just to have the pleasure to view and to own.
I am tempted by these gold coins but, alas, I think that I will just stick to my MS 1916-1947 original business strikes. They are my true passion and my long term goal. They are my priority and I will stay that course.
The vast variety and choices of coin collecting is a double-edged sword. It gives you many different directions to pursue and ways to collect but can also be a diversion that causes you to stray and to lose focus.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
I'm going to have to buy an extra one of these gold Mercury Dimes to sell to Dimeman at an obscene profit when he finally breaks down and realizes that he needs one to complete his set.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Originally posted by: jmski52 I'm going to have to buy an extra one of these gold Mercury Dimes to sell to Dimeman at an obscene profit when he finally breaks down and realizes that he needs one to complete his set.
Better yet, Jmski, let's have the class of 2000 and something/whatever chip in and buy the boy one!
When the heck is the mint going to put the price out there? What are they waiting for, a big change in gold prices? Come on already, people need to budget.
Look next Wednesday about 2pm. The price should be up then.
Originally posted by: jmski52 I'm going to have to buy an extra one of these gold Mercury Dimes to sell to Dimeman at an obscene profit when he finally breaks down and realizes that he needs one to complete his set.
Originally posted by: hchcoin When the heck is the mint going to put the price out there? What are they waiting for, a big change in gold prices? Come on already, people need to budget.
The pricing for this coin has to be announced in the Fed Reg, then the precious metal schedule has to be updated, none of which has happened yet.
The mint is really slipping in this regard. Putting up details in the catalog less than two weeks from a sales date and very slow to update other important documents. I'm afraid some government drone came to the conclusion that a product announcement will affect the sales of a currently selling product. It's a wrong assumption, but the marketing department at the mint has always been crap.
I would budget sub-$200 right now. There's a chance the price of gold could go up next Wednesday just before sales. (It was very close to going up last Wednesday.)
I still think it should be around the price of a 1/10 proof AGE, which is currently at $175, so figure about $185 to $190, considering the markups of 24k over 22k...
Originally posted by: renman95 I wish there was an option to nix the OGP...too bulky for storage. How many of these will be tossed? Just put the coin in a flip like DC does.
I agree, and it's a shame. Usually the OGP is nice and I just toss the boxes in my closet.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
The real flipping is when someone nails a prooflike from pcgs and the sealed boxes start going for moon money. I know ill be keeping sealed boxes around for when this happens.
Originally posted by: OperationButter The real flipping is when someone nails a prooflike from pcgs and the sealed boxes start going for moon money. I know ill be keeping sealed boxes around for when this happens.
Since the gold US dime is to be 125K of business strike, I'll take the USmint at their word. MHO
Originally posted by: renman95 I wish there was an option to nix the OGP...too bulky for storage. How many of these will be tossed? Just put the coin in a flip like DC does.
Originally posted by: PerryHall With that much of a premium I would be surprised if they sold all 125,000.
They may have just priced me out of buying one. I am still on the fence. Do I want to spend up to $215 on this or something else? That's one expensive box
Originally posted by: renman95 I wish there was an option to nix the OGP...too bulky for storage. How many of these will be tossed? Just put the coin in a flip like DC does.
The mint tried that once. I think it was a abject failure.
Dealers may be going after large positions of the PL and 70 versions and buying large quantities and returning the rejects. Best scenario is to order in the beginning rather than later and avoid the rejects. My limit is probably 5 and hope I get a PL version.
They may not sell out, even the 2009 UHR lingered on til the end at around 115K mintage, but these won't be as expensive compared to the UHR.
Dealers may be going after large positions of the PL and 70 versions and buying large quantities and returning the rejects. Best scenario is to order in the beginning rather than later and avoid the rejects. My limit is probably 5 and hope I get a PL version...
I agree -- order early.
Even though I don't plan to submit my coins for grading, chances are good as anyone's that I'll get a PL or 70 with an early order.
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
Dealers may be going after large positions of the PL and 70 versions and buying large quantities and returning the rejects. Best scenario is to order in the beginning rather than later and avoid the rejects. My limit is probably 5 and hope I get a PL version...
I agree -- order early.
Even though I don't plan to submit my coins for grading, chances are good as anyone's that I'll get a PL or 70 with an early order.
So, if you don't order early you may get some dealer's rejects. Hasn't this always been the case?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
I ordered a 2009 UHR on the last day of sales and got a MS 70. My first order on the first day of sales was a 69. So not always the case in ordering early. If these linger on til the end of the year than you may get a fresh batch. Luck of the draw I quess.
But ordering early may get you a better chance at a 70 or PL than waiting to avoid the rejects.
This coin will be significantly smaller than the original Mercury dime, if the specs on the Mint's website are correct. Instead of 17.9mm it will be 16.5mm, the same diameter as the 1/10 oz. Gold Eagle.
That translates to only 85% of the surface area of the silver Mercury dime, which is already small. If the diameters of the remaining coins match those of the 1/4 oz. and 1/2 oz. Gold Eagle, the gold SLQ will have only 82% of the surface area of the original and the gold WLH will have only 78% of the surface area of the original.
This greatly reduces the appeal of these commems in my view.
This coin will be significantly smaller than the original Mercury dime, if the specs on the Mint's website are correct. Instead of 17.9mm it will be 16.5mm, the same diameter as the 1/10 oz. Gold Eagle.
That translates to only 85% of the surface area of the silver Mercury dime, which is already small. If the diameters of the remaining coins match those of the 1/4 oz. and 1/2 oz. Gold Eagle, the gold SLQ will have only 82% of the surface area of the original and the gold WLH will have only 78% of the surface area of the original.
This greatly reduces the appeal of these commems in my view.
The dime will be tiny for sure. The 22mm SLQ is 90% the diameter of a standard quarter and should look much better.
I would be very surprised if the Mercury Gold dime does not sell out within the first 2 hours. There is a possible scenario where the Mint reduces the HH from 10 to 2 after the first hour though..
I also predict very decent price action on the secondary market (bay) after the quick sell out. The current presale prices on bay ($260-$300) are not sustainable and mainly used to manage market expectations prior to official release (In my opinion, we will witness upward pressure on pricing next Thursday afternoon)
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
Comments
Why not? Big profits for the Best Coins.
After cherry-picking, even the leftover 69-grade coins should be very profitable. Look at "Sold" pre-sale listings on ebay -- crazy prices.
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
I think the big dealers with their network of buyers will buy roughly 30% of the offering (roughly 38k coins or 3,800 orders). This will take place in the first 10 minutes of ordering if not less. That leaves 87k coins left to the rest of us. Im guessing that another 10% of the mintage will go in full orders of 10 within the first 10 minutes. Thats another 12,500 coins or another 1,250 orders, leaving 74,500 coins. If the average order is 3 coins, that leaves the final number of orders needed to hit a sellout at just under 25k. At 600 orders a minute, that is a total of 42 minutes to sell out.
This is a hyped coin and many people have passed up other coins this year to be able to afford the series. I don't think its unreasonable to estimate a 3 order average. With respects to the 600 orders per minute, the best way I could try to estimate the numbers is to look at previously massively hyped coins and compare the sellout time, mintage and cost. While a totally different series, and a non precious metal, the Eisenhower C&C sold 18k in 10 minutes. I believe the hype is similar to this coin, possibly not as hyped. Thats roughly 1,800 orders per minute, however, the total price is about 1/3 the total of 3 of these coins. I divided 1,800 by 3 to arrive at 600. Yes somewhat flawed logic but best my little brain could come up with.
Love to hear others thoughts on sellout times and why they think that.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Don't forget the 25th ASE set, 5 set HH limit, 100K mintage on that broken-ass old Mint website, and the moaning and complants that followed...
Five years later, that same set is now selling at barely above issue price.
I expect the Merc to sell out within a few hours. 125k may sound like a lot, but it's only half the mintage of the 1916-D.
Might want to save a few bucks for the 2021 Peace dollar.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Im also taking a WAG that the mintage on the dimes will be the lowest of the three. When the quick sellout happens on this issue, the mint will realize they left $$ on the table and increase the mintages of the two offerings.
Great to see our posts!
In this case the latter two issues will be substantially more expensive. I'm wondering whether this will be factored into any decision re: mintage of the latter two issues based on sales of the first. Not apples to apples the way that some prior issues have been like the RP dollar sets.
Good to see you posting, Raufus. Let's get Bully and a few other "salad years alumni" to try to answer that question.
I myself avoid any predictions.
With that said, I am in for his many as I can get it as quickly as I can get.
Great to see you posting as well Miles :-)
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Don't forget the 25th ASE set, 5 set HH limit, 100K mintage on that broken-ass old Mint website, and the moaning and complants that followed...
Five years later, that same set is now selling at barely above issue price.
I expect the Merc to sell out within a few hours. 125k may sound like a lot, but it's only half the mintage of the 1916-D.
Might want to save a few bucks for the 2021 Peace dollar.
Barely above issue price? I see raw sets at almost 100% return on the issue price? So is that now the new barely?
i was told by the registry people that these "things" will not be in any sets.
there is no way they should be! they aren't even coins!!
Now you're just being silly.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Now you're just being silly.
What's silly....they're NOT!
Now you're just being silly.
What's silly....they're NOT!
The US Mint would disagree with you.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Go ahead and spend $160+ as a dime.
If you guys who must.......want to call these coins....go ahead, but they are not. They are nothing more than poorly made modern commens.
Go ahead and spend $160+ as a dime.
I felt the same way about silver eagles when I first saw them in 86. I couldn't figure out why anyone would want them.
Fast forward to today - I love silver eagles.
Maybe you just need more time to see the real beauty of these modern commems
If you guys who must.......want to call these coins....go ahead, but they are not. They are nothing more than poorly made modern commens.
Go ahead and spend $160+ as a dime.
I felt the same way about silver eagles when I first saw them in 86. I couldn't figure out why anyone would want them.
Fast forward to today - I love silver eagles.
Maybe you just need more time to see the real beauty of these modern commems
I have always said "never say never".....But I can say this for sure....I will NEVER buy any bullion or modern commen. The mint hasn't made anything pretty and worth collecting (to me) since the 40's.
I might get into classic commens someday, but I doubt that.
When the heck is the mint going to put the price out there? What are they waiting for, a big change in gold prices? Come on already, people need to budget.
Dimeman sounds like a coin collecting relative of mine. He hates all commems or bullion coins and anything put out by the mint as a 'collectible'. He says it not a 'REAL' coin and that anything made explicitly to be collected will never be truly rare or valuable.
I can see where they're both coming from. I do, however, think that these 100th anniversary coins are COOL and artistic and you've gotta love that they are in GOLD. As long as the mint doesn't mark them up too high they may be a good buy just to have the pleasure to view and to own.
I am tempted by these gold coins but, alas, I think that I will just stick to my MS 1916-1947 original business strikes. They are my true passion and my long term goal. They are my priority and I will stay that course.
The vast variety and choices of coin collecting is a double-edged sword. It gives you many different directions to pursue and ways to collect but can also be a diversion that causes you to stray and to lose focus.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I knew it would happen.
I'm going to have to buy an extra one of these gold Mercury Dimes to sell to Dimeman at an obscene profit when he finally breaks down and realizes that he needs one to complete his set.
Better yet, Jmski, let's have the class of 2000 and something/whatever chip in and buy the boy one!
When the heck is the mint going to put the price out there? What are they waiting for, a big change in gold prices? Come on already, people need to budget.
Look next Wednesday about 2pm. The price should be up then.
I'm going to have to buy an extra one of these gold Mercury Dimes to sell to Dimeman at an obscene profit when he finally breaks down and realizes that he needs one to complete his set.
They will never be in the sets.
When the heck is the mint going to put the price out there? What are they waiting for, a big change in gold prices? Come on already, people need to budget.
The pricing for this coin has to be announced in the Fed Reg, then the precious metal schedule has to be updated, none of which has happened yet.
The mint is really slipping in this regard. Putting up details in the catalog less than two weeks from a sales date and very slow to update other important documents. I'm afraid some government drone came to the conclusion that a product announcement will affect the sales of a currently selling product. It's a wrong assumption, but the marketing department at the mint has always been crap.
I would budget sub-$200 right now. There's a chance the price of gold could go up next Wednesday just before sales. (It was very close to going up last Wednesday.)
I still think it should be around the price of a 1/10 proof AGE, which is currently at $175, so figure about $185 to $190, considering the markups of 24k over 22k...
Pricing for the 201 6 Mercury Dime, Standing Liberty Qu arter, and Walking Liberty Half - Dollar Centennial Gold Coins
If gold stays below $1250, the the dime will be $205. (Higher than I expected.)
If gold rallys above $1250, then the price will be $210.
Here's a portion of the table that's relevant right now..
66% Merc
49% SLQ
40% WLH
Pre-sale Mercs are currently fetching $275 to $300, so currently not much of a flip after shipping, fees and labor are taken into account.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
With gold at $1232, premiums are
66% Merc
49% SLQ
40% WLH
Pre-sale Mercs are currently fetching $275 to $300, so currently not much of a flip after shipping, fees and labor are taken into account.
The real flipping begins once they have been graded and/or after they can no longer be bought at the Mint.
Pre-selling is not flipping, it is Russian roulette.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
I wish there was an option to nix the OGP...too bulky for storage. How many of these will be tossed? Just put the coin in a flip like DC does.
I agree, and it's a shame. Usually the OGP is nice and I just toss the boxes in my closet.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
The real flipping is when someone nails a prooflike from pcgs and the sealed boxes start going for moon money. I know ill be keeping sealed boxes around for when this happens.
Since the gold US dime is to be 125K of business strike, I'll take the USmint at their word. MHO
Finish:
Business Strike
Does pcgs have a PL gold dime number?
Thanks. That's a little higher than I expected.
Indeed
I wish there was an option to nix the OGP...too bulky for storage. How many of these will be tossed? Just put the coin in a flip like DC does.
No question that this should be an option.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
With that much of a premium I would be surprised if they sold all 125,000.
They may have just priced me out of buying one. I am still on the fence. Do I want to spend up to $215 on this or something else? That's one expensive box
I wish there was an option to nix the OGP...too bulky for storage. How many of these will be tossed?...
I'm reluctant to toss $10: OEM box & COA
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
With that much of a premium I would be surprised if they sold all 125,000.
Well, day one sell out is probably out of the question now, and they may linger on the site.
They should have kept the price in line with all their other 24k offerings. The higher prices will certainly affect my purchase plans.
I wish there was an option to nix the OGP...too bulky for storage. How many of these will be tossed? Just put the coin in a flip like DC does.
The mint tried that once. I think it was a abject failure.
They may not sell out, even the 2009 UHR lingered on til the end at around 115K mintage, but these won't be as expensive compared to the UHR.
Box of 20
Dealers may be going after large positions of the PL and 70 versions and buying large quantities and returning the rejects. Best scenario is to order in the beginning rather than later and avoid the rejects. My limit is probably 5 and hope I get a PL version...
I agree -- order early.
Even though I don't plan to submit my coins for grading, chances are good as anyone's that I'll get a PL or 70 with an early order.
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
Dealers may be going after large positions of the PL and 70 versions and buying large quantities and returning the rejects. Best scenario is to order in the beginning rather than later and avoid the rejects. My limit is probably 5 and hope I get a PL version...
I agree -- order early.
Even though I don't plan to submit my coins for grading, chances are good as anyone's that I'll get a PL or 70 with an early order.
So, if you don't order early you may get some dealer's rejects. Hasn't this always been the case?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
But ordering early may get you a better chance at a 70 or PL than waiting to avoid the rejects.
Box of 20
That translates to only 85% of the surface area of the silver Mercury dime, which is already small. If the diameters of the remaining coins match those of the 1/4 oz. and 1/2 oz. Gold Eagle, the gold SLQ will have only 82% of the surface area of the original and the gold WLH will have only 78% of the surface area of the original.
This greatly reduces the appeal of these commems in my view.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
This coin will be significantly smaller than the original Mercury dime, if the specs on the Mint's website are correct. Instead of 17.9mm it will be 16.5mm, the same diameter as the 1/10 oz. Gold Eagle.
That translates to only 85% of the surface area of the silver Mercury dime, which is already small. If the diameters of the remaining coins match those of the 1/4 oz. and 1/2 oz. Gold Eagle, the gold SLQ will have only 82% of the surface area of the original and the gold WLH will have only 78% of the surface area of the original.
This greatly reduces the appeal of these commems in my view.
The dime will be tiny for sure. The 22mm SLQ is 90% the diameter of a standard quarter and should look much better.
I also predict very decent price action on the secondary market (bay) after the quick sell out. The current presale prices on bay ($260-$300) are not sustainable and mainly used to manage market expectations prior to official release (In my opinion, we will witness upward pressure on pricing next Thursday afternoon)
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
