I'm going to buy a couple tomorrow afternoon. I'm anticipating a fairly quick sell out and higher after market prices.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I'm in for one. Price could realistically go up next week, since the average London fix is close to the next level. (This happened with the RP buff, but I suspect gold will probably go down until the Fed stops selling cheap money.)
I called the sell-out over/under at 4 weeks. Should it sell out significantly sooner than that, the coin is a winner. Should it take longer than four weeks, it'll probably linger like the Au Kennedy and may not even sell out.
I'm with those who think these will sell out quickly, perhaps even less than a couple of weeks. I've been surprised at times, like the gold BBHOF sellout.
I'm comparing this against a select hand full of the mint's recent precious metal offerings. My thoughts:
'06 AGE 20th Anniversary Set - $2,610 10,000 Maximum Release/Household limit 10? Three-1 oz. gold gems. I was totally intoxicated with the coins. Bought aggressively. Still hold 2 RP-70s, and 1 each of the Proof & UNC
Complete winner--10,000 Reverse proof mintage and low mintage burnished UNC. High demand among Eagle AND general collectors due to the novelty of America's first reverse proof gold coin, and gold breaking through long-held resistance levels. Still retains significant premium due to scarcity and collector appeal.
* * * * *
'07--APE 10th Anniversary Set - $1,949.95 1 per household/Up to 30,000 Authorized Two 1/2 oz. plats Passed. Liberty even uglier in reverse proof (IMO)
Final sales just under 20,000, well short of authorized limit. Reverse proof set couldn't sustain huge mint premium, initially $520 over spot, sales continued through year end with collapsing platinum prices, mint lowered premium significantly. Lukewarm demand due to relatively very high mintage for the series.
Recently sold on eBay $260 above melt
*
'07 Jefferson Liberty First Spouse - $429.95 Proof--$410.95 UNC - 1 of each per household. Mintage 20K Unc/20K Proof Hated the PC Firs Spouse concept/Liked the Jeff Liberty--Bought several, flipped a couple, Still have 70s of each.
Final sales 20K of each, premium to melt was initially appx. $200 over spot--Coins enjoyed nice premiums until subsequent Liberty Spouses came out with dramatically lower mintages as gold's price rose. Can be bought at spot...graded FS-70s @ +$100 melt
* *
'09 UHR St. Gaudens...$1,189 Initial limit: 1 per household. Unique revision of a masterful classic. Absolutely loved the coin . Bought 1 couldn't afford more.
28K+ sales in the first day despite household limit of 1 and pricing $300+ above melt Amidst rising gold prices, the mint raised household limits throughout the year, with sales ending around 115K. Despite the mintage, this coin is still highly desirable among AGE and gold collectors and collectors generally. As a result it has retained significant value despite golds collapse from its' $1,900 peak.
Sales till holding strong approximately $800+ over spot
* * * * *
'13 Reverse Proof Buffalo...$1,640 1st RP Gold Buffalo/4 week ordering period
Passed. Like gold buffalos, just not in RP. 21K sales in the first day, about $250 over spot. Just under 48K total, relatively high mintage for the series.
Can be found on eBay now for about $400 over spot, so holding up wellso far. Not really a coin I want in my collection--No intention of buying any going forward.
Gorgeous coin(IMO)--Initially I was very excited about a high relief gold Kennedy half. Fought hard to buy 5 the first day of issue, but was sickened by the mint's Chicago/ANA, Philadelphia, Denver, SF release. Waited and watched pricing and decided to cancel my orders and wait for spot to drop.
With mintage of just under 75K, mintage appears high to me for modern gold. Will probably pick up some someday, but with premiums about $250/oz. above melt currently, waiting for further declines in gold before considering it.
* * *
Outside of my feelings about 2015 High Relief Liberty's aesthetics, I have two concerns:
1) The authorization of 50,000 is not small for a gold coin....I collect gold commems and relative to recent issues, 50K is a ton.
2) My biggest concern is that this may not be a one-time issue.
In 2006 it wasn't clear (to me at least) that the mint was going to continue to issue the proof version annually. With an initial release price of $800, the premium to melt ($570) was huge--about $230 initially, a 40% premium! With no household limits, the proof Buffalo generated sales of nearly 250K in its first year of issue. With mintages the past few collapsing to less than 20K, '06s can be bought at $99 over spot at AMPEX.
Despite the outlook for gold, I believe sales will be strong for the 2015-HR. With a 50 per household limit, flippers and large distributors rather than collectors will initially carve into these heavily. Will it sell out? I guess so. But I don't think demand will outstrip supply and believe these will not perform that great once the flipping stops. I expect that these will be able to be bought at lower prices down the road.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
In 2006 it wasn't clear (to me at least) that the mint was going to continue to issue the proof version annually. With an initial release price of $800, the premium to melt ($570) was huge--about $230 initially, a 40% premium!
I don't think in terms of % when it comes to premiums. I think of it in terms of $. That is why a $400 premium looks unattractive to me. I would find a $230 premium much more digestible.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
1.) It's the first $100 US Gold Coin + ITS High Relief!
2.) Its a better 'deal' than buying a 2015 America Gold Eagle Proof at $1,410 ! This Coin ts more unique, way better looking and its high-relief !! 2A>While the 'unlimited' 2015 AGE Proof will have less mintage when it finally sells out, given a choice between a 2015 AGE Proof or this Coin, what would you want??
3.) The CoinBoy Axiom - It is always, ***always better**** when the limits per family are higher on a **Special Coin**. Geez, if the 50K (no limit) 2014 American Coin & Chronicles Set issue with the SP Sac didn't teach you anything about combining first type coins and no limits, then you have learned nothing about *real* supply and demand situations. and.....how about ....the 2008 W Buffalo fractionals with **no limits**?? Nuf said!
4.) Yeah, the 2014 example above was $14.95, but there will be Dealers from all over the world who buy 50 Units and stash them.
Just my Humble Opinion.
I was ‘COINB0Y' with 4812 posts and ‘Expert Collector’ ranking (Joined in 2006).
Any info on how many they minted so far for the intial ordering period? I may buy one but will leave the country on Aug.25th. I would like to be sure I receive the coin before I leave.
The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
<< <i>Any info on how many they minted so far for the intial ordering period? I may buy one but will leave the country on Aug.25th. I would like to be sure I receive the coin before I leave. >>
IMHO, it's STILL one ounce of gold, regardless of collector appeal and mintage size. Gold spot can easily go to 1500 and up when the riggers (JP Morgue, et al) let the physical price go. The paper PM market is on its death bed and tremendous pressure is building on the physical side.
The way I look at it, it can be a winner as a great collectible and/or a relatively cheap bullion price.
<< <i>IMHO, it's STILL one ounce of gold, regardless of collector appeal and mintage size. Gold spot can easily go to 1500 and up when the riggers (JP Morgue, et al) let the physical price go. The paper PM market is on its death bed and tremendous pressure is building on the physical side.
The way I look at it, it can be a winner as a great collectible and/or a relatively cheap bullion price.
Will be buying one today... >>
Sounds like you've been "brainwashed" by online PM conspiracy b.s. I'll be buying one, but not for your stated reasons.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>IMHO, it's STILL one ounce of gold, regardless of collector appeal and mintage size. Gold spot can easily go to 1500 and up when the riggers (JP Morgue, et al) let the physical price go. The paper PM market is on its death bed and tremendous pressure is building on the physical side.
>>
I've given up on the idea that actual, physical, real-word demand will ever really affect the price of gold more than the paper market. So much money and power is in the hands of the futures market manipulators that we are ultimately just along for the ride.
Probably a better discussion for another thread, but I think to your point buying some of these could prove to be a good move, regardless of which way the spot price goes.
True but it may be the big buyers on not out in droves on these too. It would be a lot of money to tie up on and over priced gold coin in a weak pm market.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>IMHO, it's STILL one ounce of gold, regardless of collector appeal and mintage size. Gold spot can easily go to 1500 and up when the riggers (JP Morgue, et al) let the physical price go. The paper PM market is on its death bed and tremendous pressure is building on the physical side.
The way I look at it, it can be a winner as a great collectible and/or a relatively cheap bullion price.
Will be buying one today... >>
Sounds like you've been "brainwashed" by online PM conspiracy b.s. I'll be buying one, but not for your stated reasons. >>
So you summarily discount my opinion with an insult. I've been a member on this board for years and I'll add you to the elitist list of know-it-alls.
there is another thread to help sort out the order numbers and shipping info...
on another note, is there a cash order limit with the mint? I had to split my orders in sets of 10; not sure if it's an AMEX problem or a mint thing. I've never had that happen before.
Just ordered three. Does the mint publish the current number of coins that have been sold somewhere on their web site? If they do I sure can't find it. It would be interesting to see how fast they sell.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Just ordered three. Does the mint publish the current number of coins that have been sold somewhere on their web site? If they do I sure can't find it. It would be interesting to see how fast they sell. >>
No. Someone on one of the mint blogs will get numbers from the mint for today, then Monday or Tuesday we'll get numbers through Sunday. Then by week, unless the mint decides to release their data.
That's what was cool about having the counter on the website. You could track sales per day...
Comments
So the Question is this:
Is this a Home Run Coin?
Is it a quick flip or is it a Keeper, a coin that holds its issue value and grows over time?
Now who's buying at $1,490??
I still cannot make up my mind.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I called the sell-out over/under at 4 weeks.
I'm with those who think these will sell out quickly, perhaps even less than a couple of weeks. I've been surprised at times, like the gold BBHOF sellout.
'06 AGE 20th Anniversary Set - $2,610 10,000 Maximum Release/Household limit 10?
Three-1 oz. gold gems. I was totally intoxicated with the coins. Bought aggressively. Still hold 2 RP-70s, and 1 each of the Proof & UNC
Complete winner--10,000 Reverse proof mintage and low mintage burnished UNC. High demand among Eagle AND general collectors due to the novelty of America's first reverse proof gold coin, and gold breaking through long-held resistance levels. Still retains significant premium due to scarcity and collector appeal.
* * * * *
'07--APE 10th Anniversary Set - $1,949.95 1 per household/Up to 30,000 Authorized
Two 1/2 oz. plats Passed. Liberty even uglier in reverse proof (IMO)
Final sales just under 20,000, well short of authorized limit. Reverse proof set couldn't sustain huge mint premium, initially $520 over spot, sales continued through year end with collapsing platinum prices, mint lowered premium significantly. Lukewarm demand due to relatively very high mintage for the series.
Recently sold on eBay $260 above melt
*
'07 Jefferson Liberty First Spouse - $429.95 Proof--$410.95 UNC - 1 of each per household. Mintage 20K Unc/20K Proof
Hated the PC Firs Spouse concept/Liked the Jeff Liberty--Bought several, flipped a couple, Still have 70s of each.
Final sales 20K of each, premium to melt was initially appx. $200 over spot--Coins enjoyed nice premiums until subsequent Liberty Spouses came out with dramatically lower mintages as gold's price rose. Can be bought at spot...graded FS-70s @ +$100 melt
* *
'09 UHR St. Gaudens...$1,189 Initial limit: 1 per household.
Unique revision of a masterful classic. Absolutely loved the coin . Bought 1 couldn't afford more.
28K+ sales in the first day despite household limit of 1 and pricing $300+ above melt Amidst rising gold prices, the mint raised household limits throughout the year, with sales ending around 115K. Despite the mintage, this coin is still highly desirable among AGE and gold collectors and collectors generally. As a result it has retained significant value despite golds collapse from its' $1,900 peak.
Sales till holding strong approximately $800+ over spot
* * * * *
'13 Reverse Proof Buffalo...$1,640 1st RP Gold Buffalo/4 week ordering period
Passed. Like gold buffalos, just not in RP.
21K sales in the first day, about $250 over spot. Just under 48K total, relatively high mintage for the series.
Can be found on eBay now for about $400 over spot, so holding up wellso far. Not really a coin I want in my collection--No intention of buying any going forward.
* *
1964-2014-W HR 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half...$1,240 Household limit: 5
Gorgeous coin(IMO)--Initially I was very excited about a high relief gold Kennedy half. Fought hard to buy 5 the first day of issue, but was sickened by the mint's Chicago/ANA, Philadelphia, Denver, SF release. Waited and watched pricing and decided to cancel my orders and wait for spot to drop.
With mintage of just under 75K, mintage appears high to me for modern gold. Will probably pick up some someday, but with premiums about $250/oz. above melt currently, waiting for further declines in gold before considering it.
* * *
Outside of my feelings about 2015 High Relief Liberty's aesthetics, I have two concerns:
1) The authorization of 50,000 is not small for a gold coin....I collect gold commems and relative to recent issues, 50K is a ton.
2) My biggest concern is that this may not be a one-time issue.
In 2006 it wasn't clear (to me at least) that the mint was going to continue to issue the proof version annually. With an initial release price of $800, the premium to melt ($570) was huge--about $230 initially, a 40% premium! With no household limits, the proof Buffalo generated sales of nearly 250K in its first year of issue. With mintages the past few collapsing to less than 20K, '06s can be bought at $99 over spot at AMPEX.
Despite the outlook for gold, I believe sales will be strong for the 2015-HR. With a 50 per household limit, flippers and large distributors rather than collectors will initially carve into these heavily. Will it sell out? I guess so. But I don't think demand will outstrip supply and believe these will not perform that great once the flipping stops. I expect that these will be able to be bought at lower prices down the road.
For those of you buying the coin, enjoy!
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I don't think in terms of % when it comes to premiums. I think of it in terms of $. That is why a $400 premium looks unattractive to me. I would find a $230 premium much more digestible.
<< <i>53BKid---Thanks for the great analysis. >>
Agree, great analysis!
I will add that the KEY TO THIS ISSUE IS :
1.) It's the first $100 US Gold Coin + ITS High Relief!
2.) Its a better 'deal' than buying a 2015 America Gold Eagle Proof at $1,410 ! This Coin ts more unique, way better looking and its high-relief !!
2A>While the 'unlimited' 2015 AGE Proof will have less mintage when it finally sells out, given a choice between a 2015 AGE Proof or this Coin, what would you want??
3.) The CoinBoy Axiom - It is always, ***always better**** when the limits per family are higher on a **Special Coin**. Geez, if the 50K (no limit) 2014 American Coin & Chronicles Set issue with the SP Sac didn't teach you anything about combining first type coins and no limits, then you have learned nothing about *real* supply and demand situations. and.....how about ....the 2008 W Buffalo fractionals with **no limits**?? Nuf said!
4.) Yeah, the 2014 example above was $14.95, but there will be Dealers from all over the world who buy 50 Units and stash them.
Just my Humble Opinion.
I may buy one but will leave the country on Aug.25th. I would like to be sure I receive the coin before I leave.
<< <i>Any info on how many they minted so far for the intial ordering period?
I may buy one but will leave the country on Aug.25th. I would like to be sure I receive the coin before I leave. >>
ensure you are in the bathroom at 12 tomorrow
The way I look at it, it can be a winner as a great collectible and/or a relatively cheap bullion price.
Will be buying one today...
Vietnam Vet 1968-1969
<< <i>IMHO, it's STILL one ounce of gold, regardless of collector appeal and mintage size. Gold spot can easily go to 1500 and up when the riggers (JP Morgue, et al) let the physical price go. The paper PM market is on its death bed and tremendous pressure is building on the physical side.
The way I look at it, it can be a winner as a great collectible and/or a relatively cheap bullion price.
Will be buying one today... >>
Sounds like you've been "brainwashed" by online PM conspiracy b.s. I'll be buying one, but not for your stated reasons.
<< <i>IMHO, it's STILL one ounce of gold, regardless of collector appeal and mintage size. Gold spot can easily go to 1500 and up when the riggers (JP Morgue, et al) let the physical price go. The paper PM market is on its death bed and tremendous pressure is building on the physical side.
>>
I've given up on the idea that actual, physical, real-word demand will ever really affect the price of gold more than the paper market. So much money and power is in the hands of the futures market manipulators that we are ultimately just along for the ride.
Probably a better discussion for another thread, but I think to your point buying some of these could prove to be a good move, regardless of which way the spot price goes.
- tick
- tick
- tick
USM034084xx @15 seconds after noon
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
my car art & My Ebay stuff
USM03408xxx
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
Successful, problem free and pleasant transactions with: illini420, coinguy1, weather11am,wayneherndon,wondercoin,Topdollarpaid,Julian, bishdigg,seateddime, peicesofme,ajia,CoinRaritiesOnline,savoyspecial,Boom, TorinoCobra71, ModernCoinMart, WTCG, slinc, Patches, Gerard, pocketpiececommems, BigJohnD, RickMilauskas, mirabella, Smittys, LeeG, TomB, DeusExMachina, tydye
Order Placed:Jul 30, 2015
Order Number:USM03408xxx
smooth as ...
raja
<< <i>In and Out. Ain't like the old days >>
True but it may be the big buyers on not out in droves on these too. It would be a lot of money to tie up on and over priced gold coin in a weak pm market.
<< <i>In and Out. Ain't like the old days >>
I really like the new fulfillment company, but I miss coming in here to read all the comments after the mint's web site crashed...
<< <i>
<< <i>In and Out. Ain't like the old days >>
I really like the new fulfillment company, but I miss coming in here to read all the comments after the mint's web site crashed...
I placed an order for something 2 days ago and it did not ship yet!
<< <i>I got 10 orders each in its own box. 1st order is 03409xxx and my 10th order is 03412xxx >>
what are the timestamps on the first and last orders?
<< <i>
<< <i>IMHO, it's STILL one ounce of gold, regardless of collector appeal and mintage size. Gold spot can easily go to 1500 and up when the riggers (JP Morgue, et al) let the physical price go. The paper PM market is on its death bed and tremendous pressure is building on the physical side.
The way I look at it, it can be a winner as a great collectible and/or a relatively cheap bullion price.
Will be buying one today... >>
Sounds like you've been "brainwashed" by online PM conspiracy b.s. I'll be buying one, but not for your stated reasons. >>
So you summarily discount my opinion with an insult. I've been a member on this board for years and I'll add you to the elitist list of know-it-alls.
Vietnam Vet 1968-1969
on another note, is there a cash order limit with the mint? I had to split my orders in sets of 10; not sure if it's an AMEX problem or a mint thing. I've never had that happen before.
<< <i>
<< <i>I got 10 orders each in its own box. 1st order is 03409xxx and my 10th order is 03412xxx >>
what are the timestamps on the first and last orders? >>
How do I find that? When I go to order history page and click order # it brings me back to order history. I think they are having a glitch
do dealers have to order 10 at a time? I've never heard of that.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I got 10 orders each in its own box. 1st order is 03409xxx and my 10th order is 03412xxx >>
what are the timestamps on the first and last orders? >>
How do I find that? When I go to order history page and click order # it brings me back to order history. I think they are having a glitch >>
once they appear. on days like today, orders are slow to appear in order history.
over credit limit or something to that effect.
WTF US Mint ?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Went to order my 50 and on checkout it says
over credit limit or something to that effect.
WTF US Mint ?
03410xxx @ 12:03 for just 1 Coin. I'm really curious just to see what these are looking like. It better be good or it goes back
asap.
Was just farting around with the order for 50. Still .... wtf ?
<< <i>Just ordered three. Does the mint publish the current number of coins that have been sold somewhere on their web site? If they do I sure can't find it. It would be interesting to see how fast they sell. >>
No. Someone on one of the mint blogs will get numbers from the mint for today, then Monday or Tuesday we'll get numbers through Sunday. Then by week, unless the mint decides to release their data.
That's what was cool about having the counter on the website. You could track sales per day...
no first day sell out, imo