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Is BBCE finally drying up?

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The first PSA 10 1981 Kirk Gibson sold twice. Once for just over 2k and then again for $2,700 range.

    I think it is fair to say that a PSA 10 Fernando would go for those prices easily.

    A 1981 Topps Nolan Ryan and Pete Rose in PSA 10 command nice prices.

    Here are some recent sales for 1980 through 1983.


    1980 Topps Angels team card


    1980 Topps Manny Mota


    1981 Topps Pete Rose



    pt=US_Baseball&hash=item460f72d625">1982 Topps Nolan Ryan



    pt=US_Baseball&hash=item460f72d625">1983 Topps Tony Gwynn




    I think this small sampling shows there are definitely chances for hits to happen in these packs where as you move latter in the decade there are very few cards in high grade that command much money.

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You used to be able to get 1984 Donruss Wax Boxes all day in the $150 range.

    Here is recent sale that is very strong on a PSA 10 Don Mattingly. This card was routinely selling in the $350 to $400 range for a long time.


    1984 PSA 10 Don Mattingly


    Now the boxes are selling for this.



    $279



    I think there is a correlation between what might be inside and what a box costs.
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    "I think there is a correlation between what might be inside and what a box costs."

    Absolutely brilliant.
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    MattyCMattyC Posts: 1,335 ✭✭
    I agree that at $150-$200, an 84D box is an attractive purchase, with a Donny PSA 10 at 500.

    But once that box hits 300, I'm not ripping it, and possibly passing on the box altogether. It really depends how much of a gambler one is, but I'd have to think the overwhelming majority of the time, it's a losing bet to rip that $300 box and grade the contents. But that's just me. I like certainty and to know exactly what I'm getting for the money.
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    itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭
    topically speaking, of course, it would be interesting to know which of those samplings actually came from a BBCE wax box.

    or any wax box. or any box at all.
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    ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ripping vintage packs is a losing proposition. It's like playing a slot machine - you could get lucky on an isolated incident but over the long run you will always lose.
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    << <i>Ripping vintage packs is a losing proposition. It's like playing a slot machine - you could get lucky on an isolated incident but over the long run you will always lose. >>



    I guess the definition of vintage is important here.

    Ripping a pack or two -- no point. Ripping a whole box is a different story.
    Your odds of getting something good increase up to a certain but point,
    but obviously the more expensive packs (1960s or earlier) is just not feasibile.

    I wouldn't bother ripping a single 1980 pack -- but I would rip an entire box.

    But I wouldn't rip a single 1967 pack.

    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.

    DaveB in St.Louis
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    ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'll even go so far as to remove the vintage qualifier in my statement. It's just simple mathematics. Identify the card and grade you are hoping to "hit," see how much that card would cost you to simply buy, I guarantee that it would cost you more (on average) to rip the amount of wax it would take to pull said card.

    However, the world is full of people that only remember that time they pulled the handle once and hit the slot machine for $400 so they keep going back thinking that is the norm. If you're doing it for entertainment purposes, go for it. Otherwise, it's a fool's errand.
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,597 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would agree that ripping vintage unopened is a losing proposition in the long run, but it can pay off. I opened a 75 mini wax box a while back and pulled several PSA 10 low pops that paid for the box and then some. Besides that, ripping 40-year old wax is insanely addictive and enjoyable, too. You only live once, or so the saying goes image


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Tim, so what you're saying is you hit the machine for a couple grand that time? image

    For the record, I'm not anti-ripping. I've ripped a TON of stuff in the past year. I enjoy it. For me, it's entertainment. But I do it knowing that it's a losing proposition.

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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,597 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Tim, so what you're saying is you hit the machine for a couple grand that time? image

    For the record, I'm not anti-ripping. I've ripped a TON of stuff in the past year. I enjoy it. For me, it's entertainment. But I do it knowing that it's a losing proposition. >>



    I would agree that it is a losing proposition over time, but in my experience, at least, there's enough possibility of reward to be worth the risk, in some cases.

    Price point is significant, though, and with prices continuing to rise, ripping is definitely less appealing.

    I bought a couple real nice 78 and 79 wax boxes about a year ago for $500 and $400 respectively (one of the 79 wax packs even had Ozzie face out on back), and I knew after opening a few packs that I'd be making money on those boxes as the 78 were super sharp and mint. But, yes, it's definitely a crapshoot.

    Another thing for me is that I try to include as many self-submitted cards in my PSA sets as I can. It may sound odd, but a PSA 9 that I've pulled from a pack is just more special than a PSA 9 I buy from someone else.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Another thing for me is that I try to include as many self-submitted cards in my PSA sets as I can. It may sound odd, but a PSA 9 that I've pulled from a pack is just more special than a PSA 9 I buy from someone else. >>



    That's awesome. If I were working on a set this is what I would do too.
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,597 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Another thing for me is that I try to include as many self-submitted cards in my PSA sets as I can. It may sound odd, but a PSA 9 that I've pulled from a pack is just more special than a PSA 9 I buy from someone else. >>



    That's awesome. If I were working on a set this is what I would do too. >>



    The PSA 9 75 mini Yount RC and Aaron cards are probably my favorites in my set. Also, on the OPC side, a PSA 9 76 Carter and a PSA 9 80 Brett. I've never pulled a 75 OPC Brett or Yount but that would be sweet, too! image


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    ThoseBackPagesThoseBackPages Posts: 4,871 ✭✭
    for wax from the pre "OMG-MOJO-HITS" era, i think we can all agree that you rip it for a good time first, monetarily second.

    If you go down the line, year after year, the price of simply buying the card you want (in the slab you want) will be cheaper then "doing it yourself"

    of course, the fun aspect of doing it yourself is hard to put a dollar figure on
    Big Fan of: HOF Post War RC, Graded RCs
    WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
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    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Another thing for me is that I try to include as many self-submitted cards in my PSA sets as I can. It may sound odd, but a PSA 9 that I've pulled from a pack is just more special than a PSA 9 I buy from someone else. >>



    That's awesome. If I were working on a set this is what I would do too. >>



    The PSA 9 75 mini Yount RC and Aaron cards are probably my favorites in my set. Also, on the OPC side, a PSA 9 76 Carter and a PSA 9 80 Brett. I've never pulled a 75 OPC Brett or Yount but that would be sweet, too! image >>



    I agree. i have only bought PSA cards that seem more worth it to buy than to submit. But I love opening and submitting. But I am very cautious in my submissions as its an extra expense in the grand scheme of it all. So I have only done it twice. I wish I went to these boards before I sold my first card a few years back. But live and learn.
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    " bought a couple real nice 78 and 79 wax boxes about a year ago for $500 and $400 respectively (one of the 79 wax packs even had Ozzie face out on back), and I knew after opening a few packs that I'd be making money on those boxes as the 78 were super sharp and mint. But, yes, it's definitely a crapshoot.

    Another thing for me is that I try to include as many self-submitted cards in my PSA sets as I can. It may sound odd, but a PSA 9 that I've pulled from a pack is just more special than a PSA 9 I buy from someone else."

    Awesome.
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    << <i>For the record, I'm not anti-ripping. I've ripped a TON of stuff in the past year. I enjoy it. For me, it's entertainment. But I do it knowing that it's a losing proposition. >>



    This is one of the reasons that 1980s unopened, even including the once plentiful
    junk wax years, is becoming more scarce.

    It's a lot of fun to do it.

    And the price of a Topps box for 1980-1983 is still within reach, still decent for 84-86,
    and really good for 87-89. So depending on the year it might be cheap entertainment.

    I've done really well lately with 1989, much more than paid for itself, and still have a bunch
    of duplicate PSA 10s to sell. But I've been averaging about 50% PSA 10 on subs and I
    don't think that's sustainable in the long run.
    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.

    DaveB in St.Louis
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    TheCARDKidTheCARDKid Posts: 1,496
    The best vintage packs I've opened for the money have been 77/78 Topps basketball, 78/79 (even though I don't like the design) and 79/80.

    Those are almost can't lose. The sets are so small (132 card) and there are a lot of hall of famers and rookies. Another reasonable bang for the buck is 1983 topps baseball vending. $50-55. Your cost basis on a Boggs, Gwynn, Sandberg is like $20 each, assuming you get 2 of the 3 in a box. 1984 Topps vending is also pretty cheap, $20 a box? 1981 Fleer, 81 Donruss, also cheap.
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    Agree on the basketball.
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    On BBCE what about the hockey. 1975 vending still there and would suspect the set is 200 or less cards. Value in 10 or 180 years like all the 80's pack collectors think ?
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    I definitely wouldn't open any 1975 Topps Hockey thinking you could make some money submitting them to PSA. Check out 4SC prices on 9s and 10s and you'll see what I mean.
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    Just thought it would be good to get. In 10 years, and the new automated proofing robot machine of cards is in place and functional, all this will change. There won't be anymore of this stuff I see about 'PSA is mostly visual grading'. Crossing over PSA cards to to the company that has some science to it, will prove quite beneficial to true collectors. Will eliminate most all of the same discussions you mock here about 'it aint a 10 whaaaa whaa' .

    Science Grade. good for card collecting, bad for message boards.
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    Here are a few pics of my contribution to the drought.
    I started buying heavy after noting the lack of 70s on BBCE over the past year or so. I was lucky to get some late 1970s stuff before it all disappeared including a stash of 1976 and 1977 vending. I think I have around 10 1979 rack boxes, only have 5 1978 cello boxes which I wont touch. They have the Topps vault signifiers and BBCE shrinkwrap image I have a 1979 and 1981 vending case, but these are my favorites including 2 sealed 1977 topps vending! I might group rip these someday, but I will have to have a stipulation that I keep any nice Fidrych rookies image

    [URL=http://s1310.photobucket.com/user/MintMoondog/media/DSC_0079_zpsc2d25521.jpg.html]image[/URL]
    [URL=http://s1310.photobucket.com/user/MintMoondog/media/DSC_0080_zps9b4f47ea.jpg.html]image[/URL]
    [URL=http://s1310.photobucket.com/user/MintMoondog/media/DSC_0075_zps24be6e8a.jpg.html]image[/URL]
    75 Minis - GET IN MY BELLY!
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,597 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Awesome photos, Henry! That is one heckuva collection you have amassed there! If you ever want to lighten the load so to speak, please fee free to PM me! image


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    << <i>Here are a few pics of my contribution to the drought.
    I started buying heavy after noting the lack of 70s on BBCE over the past year or so. I was lucky to get some late 1970s stuff before it all disappeared including a stash of 1976 and 1977 vending. I think I have around 10 1979 rack boxes, only have 5 1978 cello boxes which I wont touch. >>



    What a great collection. Congratulations on having the foresight to not only recognize the impending shortage of wax but to jump in and buy! You've made some great pick-ups. At least now we know where the remainder of the 70's stuff went!!!
    Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'WOW What a Ride!' Mark Frost
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    aconteaconte Posts: 2,054 ✭✭✭
    Nice stuff Henry! You might need to contribute product for the next group rip to help keep us going. image

    aconte
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    flatfoot816flatfoot816 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭
    nice stuff dude--impressive!!
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    tsalems1tsalems1 Posts: 3,373 ✭✭✭
    Very nice!!!
    www.OPCBASEBALL.com

    Email: OPCBASEBALL@YAHOO.COM

    Follow OPCBASEBALL.COM on Facebook
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    19541954 Posts: 2,869 ✭✭✭
    Well we know where the next group rip is coming from .
    Let's get this thing started now.

    Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
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    damn!!!! great room of unopened stuff. Im very envious ! I just want to own some 1979 topps unopened as that was the first set I seriously collected image I only own 1 box of 1981 Donruss & some junk boxes lol
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    itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭
    *drool. image
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    RookieWaxRookieWax Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭
    Great stuff. Everyone here needs an unopened haven (or should I say heaven) like that.
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    ThoseBackPagesThoseBackPages Posts: 4,871 ✭✭
    that is a LOT of 81D! nice.
    Big Fan of: HOF Post War RC, Graded RCs
    WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
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    ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That's ridiculous, thanks for sharing!
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    << <i>that is a LOT of 81D! nice. >>



    Thanks everyone, I appreciate the kind words. That is a great eye and yes, I have been accumulating 81DR as it was one of my favorite sets as a kid and was an exciting time to be a collector with DR and Fleer entering the fold. I probably need more than that to put a high grade set together though as you all know image I stopped breaking the boxes and cases once the prices started to shoot upwards and will wait things out. The thoughtful discussion on this board has really helped to shape my collecting decisions.
    75 Minis - GET IN MY BELLY!
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    I have a box of 81 D, but never personally owned a box. It seems from my understanding, you would need more than one box as the collation in those are terrible and haphazard.
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    MintMoondog- Love the pics and love that you are so organized. My rooms don't even come close. Congrats!image
    Baseball is my Pastime, Football is my Passion
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    mccardguy1mccardguy1 Posts: 1,507 ✭✭✭
    So how many more collectors/speculators have rooms that look like this. I suspect there are many rooms that are jammed filled with inventory that is supposedly drying up and will make their appearance again after the prices hit the right mark. So I can only wonder........is this inventory really drying up? I dont think it is.

    Great room by the way.
    I am on a budget and I am not afraid to use it!!
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    RookieWaxRookieWax Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭


    << <i>So how many more collectors/speculators have rooms that look like this. I suspect there are many rooms that are jammed filled with inventory that is supposedly drying up and will make their appearance again after the prices hit the right mark. So I can only wonder........is this inventory really drying up? I dont think it is.

    Great room by the way. >>



    It is drying up when you want it but can't find it available anywhere to purchase.
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    Baez578Baez578 Posts: 967 ✭✭✭
    Great room! I just have an organized section of a closet...lol
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    << <i>It is drying up when you want it but can't find it available anywhere to purchase. >>



    Those lucky ones that stashed older unopened material won't let it hit the market any time
    soon and when it does it will be a dribble.

    For all intents and purposes -- drying up.

    Anyone watching BBCE in the last year can't help but discern that in anticipation
    of this their business model is moving more every day toward the sale of graded cards
    and PSA/DNA autographed material.

    Does anyone see this as a conflict of interest? A PSA-paid employee or contractor
    doing authentication also selling PSA-graded material as a business does raise
    some interesting issues IMHO.
    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.

    DaveB in St.Louis
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    70ToppsFanatic70ToppsFanatic Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>It is drying up when you want it but can't find it available anywhere to purchase. >>



    Those lucky ones that stashed older unopened material won't let it hit the market any time
    soon and when it does it will be a dribble.

    For all intents and purposes -- drying up.

    Anyone watching BBCE in the last year can't help but discern that in anticipation
    of this their business model is moving more every day toward the sale of graded cards
    and PSA/DNA autographed material.

    Does anyone see this as a conflict of interest? A PSA-paid employee or contractor
    doing authentication also selling PSA-graded material as a business does raise
    some interesting issues IMHO. >>



    I have no fears of this when the person in question is Steve Hart


    Dave
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    << <i>

    << <i>It is drying up when you want it but can't find it available anywhere to purchase. >>



    Those lucky ones that stashed older unopened material won't let it hit the market any time
    soon and when it does it will be a dribble.

    For all intents and purposes -- drying up.

    Anyone watching BBCE in the last year can't help but discern that in anticipation
    of this their business model is moving more every day toward the sale of graded cards
    and PSA/DNA autographed material.

    Does anyone see this as a conflict of interest? A PSA-paid employee or contractor
    doing authentication also selling PSA-graded material as a business does raise
    some interesting issues IMHO. >>



    This was a similar dilemma in the early days of comic book collecting when Todd McFarlane, artist, creator of his own comic Spawn, opened his own comic shop. (Incidentally, he is also the purchaser of the Mark McGwire ball when he hit his 62nd homer).

    But I think this is no more of a conflict of interest than PSA selling on eBay, having their own auctions with PSA graded cards, or Beckett doing the same thing and determining the book value for said cards they sell.

    So Steve selling PSA items as a grader is not nearly a conflict as it may seem.
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    PorkinsPorkins Posts: 605 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>It is drying up when you want it but can't find it available anywhere to purchase. >>



    Those lucky ones that stashed older unopened material won't let it hit the market any time
    soon and when it does it will be a dribble.

    For all intents and purposes -- drying up.

    Anyone watching BBCE in the last year can't help but discern that in anticipation
    of this their business model is moving more every day toward the sale of graded cards
    and PSA/DNA autographed material.

    Does anyone see this as a conflict of interest? A PSA-paid employee or contractor
    doing authentication also selling PSA-graded material as a business does raise
    some interesting issues IMHO. >>



    I have no fears of this when the person in question is Steve Hart >>



    +1

    I've seen this latter issue brought up ad nauseum on this board by some who may not be as familiar with the person in question, but I believe 70Topps responded to it most accurately and succinctly.
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    In one of PSA Pres Joe Orlando's recent articles he mentioned that he was a graded card collector until he started working for PSA, then he thought it would be best if he gave it up - even though he was never asked / told to.
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    flatfoot816flatfoot816 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭
    BBCE sells PSA graded packs. Why would selling autos or cards slabbed by PSA be any different? The issue of BBCE selling packs and if that is a conflict has come up many times here. All--well those who have faith in BBCE--believe that while there may be a perception of a conflict--we are willing to waive it or deal with it because of the aforementioned faith
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    cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,561 ✭✭✭
    I definitely think it would be a conflict of interest if Steve was submitting the cards and especially the packs to PSA, but as has been discussed before this is not the case. All the PSA graded material Steve has is from his purchases of people's collections. It would actually make no sense for him to not have PSA graded material based on how popular they are. I've seen GAI graded packs on his website as well.
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
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    itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭
    i wonder how many times Steve has read through this never-ending story and face-palmed.
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    Well the reason it keeps being mentioned, and apparently I'm not the first to mention it,
    is that it's not a smart move on PSA's part.

    In this industry rife with scammers and criminals that threatens the entire hobby, you would
    think that that PSA would seek to limit even the possibility of future impropriety. And the best way
    to do that is for someone that is authenticating ANY product for you to not be selling any
    of your authenticated products.

    Yes it is a business, but it's an industry that has a VERY bad repuation. And inrecent
    years the rep is only getting worse.

    But these kind of situations are one of the reasons that people won't have their items
    authenticated and don't trust third-party graders.

    Everyone trusts Steve and we all like Steve and it's not about him personally.

    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.

    DaveB in St.Louis
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