<< <i>If those are the best PSA 10 prices you can find, whose side are you arguing? >>
Remember that those prices are from the last 15 days only. They are admittedly not high, but they were selling better earlier this spring. Then you have to consider that they're getting these cards very very cheaply to begin with since they buy cases and bust 'em, then they get a reduced quantity grading fee from PSA.
So 25-50 bucks for some of these cards is not bad if you can sell enough of them.
And they do. >>
I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card?
'Sir, I realize it's been difficult for you to sleep at night without your EX/MT 1977 Topps Tom Seaver, but I swear to you that you'll get it safe and sound.' -CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
<< <i>I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
That is a good question. We'd have to know how cheaply they get their cases, their bulk grading rates, and what their percentage of PSA 10 hits is -- to even approximate their potential profit on a case of cards.
But my observation from my own experience is that from an $8 wax box you can generally get at least one really good gradable card, or approximately 20 cards from a wax case. If you're willing to sell $15 cards you can probably double that number.
But lets say the case cost $150, and you grade 20 cards at $4 apiece (guessing the 4SC discount rate). So you have roughly $230 worth of skin in the game. If half of the cards you subbed are PSA 10 cards worth $25 then you've broken even. But I think they probably do better than 50%. And some of the cards will be $40 or even $50. A Chipper Jones can sell for $85 on eBay. And some of the PSA 9 cards will fetch close to $10, Chipper sells for about $15.
The key to making this equation work is QUANTITY -- that's why 4SC has sold 120,000 items on eBAY.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
<< <i>If those are the best PSA 10 prices you can find, whose side are you arguing? >>
Remember that those prices are from the last 15 days only. They are admittedly not high, but they were selling better earlier this spring. Then you have to consider that they're getting these cards very very cheaply to begin with since they buy cases and bust 'em, then they get a reduced quantity grading fee from PSA.
So 25-50 bucks for some of these cards is not bad if you can sell enough of them.
And they do. >>
I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
They have been doing this a long time. They are not in the game to lose money. The business model is working for them for sure (in my opinion of course).
<< <i>They have been doing this a long time. They are not in the game to lose money. The business model is working for them for sure (in my opinion of course). aconte >>
That's correct. And it's one of the reasons why BBCE can't sell you a 1988-91 Topps rack case or even a box for that matter. Outfits like 4SC are gobbling them up faster than they can reach the market. And they're grabbing them on eBAY too if the price is right.
Everyone jokes about how much junk wax is out there -- well it's dwindling at a faster rate every day because there are nice profits to be made selling graded cards from the junk wax years since the acquisition cost is still low.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
<< <i>I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
This is the 4SC niche and why I would rather buy the card for $50 than 8 boxes along with grading fees, supplies and shipping to try for a 10.
<< <i>This is the 4SC niche and why I would rather buy the card for $50 than 8 boxes along with grading fees, supplies and shipping to try for a 10. >>
+1
If I didn't have a full time job, a family, my hobby and a life I would love to buy 20-25 cases, break them, sub them and make my money back $5 at a time, but I will let 4SC do that. It isn't worth the effort to me.
<< <i>I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
This is the 4SC niche and why I would rather buy the card for $50 than 8 boxes along with grading fees, supplies and shipping to try for a 10. >>
I don't recall anyone asking you to do that. LOL
This only makes sense if you're doing it on a big scale like 4SC does. But it is one of the reasons that BBCE doesn't have any 1988-91 Topps baseball rack boxes. The thread is about BBCE running dry on things and in some cases they appear to be.
They do have some wax boxes (no cases) for those years but your odds go down on pulling decent PSA 10 cards from those.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
4SC is good for those 87-92 PSA 10 cards that you can get for around $10. It is definitely not worth sending in a Dale Murphy (or Nolan Ryan if thats your game) card from those years when you can just buy it cheaper than chance it for $10.
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards.
<< <i>4SC is good for those 87-92 PSA 10 cards that you can get for around $10. It is definitely not worth sending in a Dale Murphy (or Nolan Ryan if thats your game) card from those years when you can just buy it cheaper than chance it for $10.
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards. >>
Ryan is worth it if you think you have a 50-50 shot at a 10. You can usually get $30 for a PSA 10 Ryan and and 7-8 for PSA 9.
I agree about Murphy.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
<< <i>4SC is good for those 87-92 PSA 10 cards that you can get for around $10. It is definitely not worth sending in a Dale Murphy (or Nolan Ryan if thats your game) card from those years when you can just buy it cheaper than chance it for $10.
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards. >>
Ryan is worth it if you think you have a 50-50 shot at a 10. You can usually get $30 for a PSA 10 Ryan and and 7-8 for PSA 9.
I agree about Murphy. >>
87 Topps Murphy in 10 goes for north of $50 consistently. 5 years ago, 2 copies of the card both sold for over $200.
<< <i>4SC is good for those 87-92 PSA 10 cards that you can get for around $10. It is definitely not worth sending in a Dale Murphy (or Nolan Ryan if thats your game) card from those years when you can just buy it cheaper than chance it for $10.
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards. >>
Ryan is worth it if you think you have a 50-50 shot at a 10. You can usually get $30 for a PSA 10 Ryan and and 7-8 for PSA 9.
I agree about Murphy. >>
87 Topps Murphy in 10 goes for north of $50 consistently. 5 years ago, 2 copies of the card both sold for over $200. >>
Granted some exceptions to the rule. I have gotten Tiffany cards cheaper than its standard counterpart. But I was generalizing to some degree based on experience. Obviously A Thomas or Griffey rookie does not fall into this category, but you may star cards can be had relatively cheap, especially when they have a handful of them or other sellers have them, they will offer them cheaper.
I bought an 87 Larkin for $35, I think they are $25 now.
So those '87 Topps & '89 Fleer rack cases I have stashed away aren't worthless then?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Wow. I just looked on the BBCE site and there is NOTHING for '70s baseball. No wax, cello, or rack boxes of regular issue Topps from ANY year in the '70s. No Topps wax or rack packs (other than a few graded packs) from ANY year. A few cello packs from 1975 and 1979 and that's it. Tumbleweeds.
Tip of the cap to those of you who bought '70s unopened and have managed to keep it unopened.
'Sir, I realize it's been difficult for you to sleep at night without your EX/MT 1977 Topps Tom Seaver, but I swear to you that you'll get it safe and sound.' -CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
I just bought one wax box of '85 Donruss so I can feel like I'm a small part of it. If- IF- I can keep it unopened, that box will constitute the entirety of my unopened collection.
'Sir, I realize it's been difficult for you to sleep at night without your EX/MT 1977 Topps Tom Seaver, but I swear to you that you'll get it safe and sound.' -CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
From my own research prices have not moved that much from about 5 years ago (based on the CU board prices). However, this does not mean that they are not going up. I am speaking more on part of the 80's than the 70's. While 80's seem to be slowly drying up or being relocated, movement by itself indicate a demand, and the demand will raise the prices, even if they are being hoarded. There is still plenty to go, so I would guess it wont be a while till a significant change in price occurs.
In my opinion, '85 Donruss was the best option in that group.
'Sir, I realize it's been difficult for you to sleep at night without your EX/MT 1977 Topps Tom Seaver, but I swear to you that you'll get it safe and sound.' -CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
ivegotta disagree with you again, mygotta. 1980 Topps has blasted off. Last fall, wax boxes were moving on eBay in the $300-$325 neighborhood. Steve's buy price is currently $400.
<< <i>ivegotta disagree with you again, mygotta. 1980 Topps has blasted off. Last fall, wax boxes were moving on eBay in the $300-$325 neighborhood. Steve's buy price is currently $400.
I actually missed the boat on the lower 1980 box prices at $300 each . So I am coming from the point of view that everyone in the world stopped collecting in 1989 and started again in 2012 (i kid of course). That said, I am aware the current price on 1980, and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. But I checked back in 2009 from this board and 1983 boxes were $140, the same price they were last november. I think they are near $180 now. They have gone up recently, but not as significant as the 70's. 1982, we saw the case sell out in 24 hours, so the demand is up. But whether the prices will rise as dramatic it might appear I guessing probably not. Thats my thinking at the moment.
There are too many variables in the 80s to lump that decade together as one. From what I've read, the total baseball card production basically doubled from 1979 to 1984 and then again by 1988. That type of production growth creates significant disparities between subgroups. You can't compare 1979 with 1983, nor 1983 with 1987, etc.
I think some people look at what has happened with the late-1970s and think the same will happen in 5-7 years with the mid-1980s. That is most definitely not going to be the case (no pun intended).
I was thinking about the question of if the BBCE is drying up?
I think that puts Steve in a very difficult situation. First he does not sell the new stuff like D&A to keep cash flow going. Second if he has difficulty purchasing products he has to raise his buy prices which he has done. But since there is so much debate as to how much prices have actually gone up. (The Dugout has higher prices but does not seem to sell as quickly). If Steve pays too much for the product, then it would sit and he would not be able to turn it for a profit. If he does not pay enough he does not get the product in the first place. I also think this might be one of the reason they seem to be diversifying more into autographs and graded cards. So if Steve see thinks he needs to diversify then i would think he believes at some point in time, either now or in the future he will have difficulty finding product.
So my thinking is - yes unopened material is drying up and there is not enough (bulk) unopened material to keep the business model going as it once was. If it was just a move from the 70's to the 80's product being available I think Steve could very easily make that move and would be well stocked in that area.
Mets I agree with you. Following along BBCE's last buying trip on fb and it seemed like most of the purchases made were autographs or vintage hand collated sets. I would imagine that's an attempt to supplement the income while unopened product becomes more difficult to find at prices that can equal a reasonably quick flip for profit.
I've actually been wondering why BBCE hasn't gotten into moving more modern product. I would imagine the size of their operation compared to D&A would make it difficult to compete but it seems like they're inching closer and closer. I remember a few years ago it seemed like BBCE didn't have any product in stock for the most current ~3 years. Now I'm seeing 2012 product in their store.
1. I doubt Steve has a cash flow problem--he just can't seem to find the stuff. And I doubt that people are asking too much--they just ain't calling him
2. if Steve had product, I doubt that he would be sitting on it for too long. Too many unopened collectors on this board alone
3. I agree that if the businees model of selling just vintage unopened was what Steve had in mind--he would be out of busines soon. I think it's his favorite niche and part of his business, but he can't survive on waiting for people to call him with unopened. That's why I think he hooked up with Reed. Good move as it turns out
4. The OP was "is BBCE drying up?" The answer of course is yes--but they ain't alone--it's all being buried in people's collections which will be sold little at a time over the next 10-15 years
1. I doubt Steve has a cash flow problem--he just can't seem to find the stuff. And I doubt that people are asking too much--they just ain't calling him
2. if Steve had product, I doubt that he would be sitting on it for too long. Too many unopened collectors on this board alone
3. I agree that if the businees model of selling just vintage unopened was what Steve had in mind--he would be out of busines soon. I think it's his favorite niche and part of his business, but he can't survive on waiting for people to call him with unopened. That's why I think he hooked up with Reed. Good move as it turns out
4. The OP was "is BBCE drying up?" The answer of course is yes--but they ain't alone--it's all being buried in people's collections which will be sold little at a time over the next 10-15 years >>
A recent post on FB suggested they are getting some 80's stuff in. But I see their eBay page and they do a lot of graded cards, packs and auto memorabilia that I am sure helps support his role in getting unopened material. So again, he is not solely relying on pack or box sales to support the business.
<< <i>I was thinking about the question of if the BBCE is drying up?
I think that puts Steve in a very difficult situation. First he does not sell the new stuff like D&A to keep cash flow going. Second if he has difficulty purchasing products he has to raise his buy prices which he has done. But since there is so much debate as to how much prices have actually gone up. (The Dugout has higher prices but does not seem to sell as quickly). If Steve pays too much for the product, then it would sit and he would not be able to turn it for a profit. If he does not pay enough he does not get the product in the first place. I also think this might be one of the reason they seem to be diversifying more into autographs and graded cards. So if Steve see thinks he needs to diversify then i would think he believes at some point in time, either now or in the future he will have difficulty finding product.
So my thinking is - yes unopened material is drying up and there is not enough (bulk) unopened material to keep the business model going as it once was. If it was just a move from the 70's to the 80's product being available I think Steve could very easily make that move and would be well stocked in that area.
Just a though anyone else agree or disagree? >>
Assuming all 70's are completely dried up, save for the amount that collector's have and are not in the market for resale. And 80's are getting closer to drying up. There is still the lag of 90's and then the 2000's out there too that will eventually be considered "classic" or "modern vintage" or "dated" unopened material. I dont know how plentiful the 2000's are, but that stuff is expensive out of the Topps door, so its a different market. A box of 2001 Heritage is at $250 and up. Are there cases floating around? I have no clue. But he can always move into that territory. So I think his model can maintain, just move into a different era.
<< <i>I was thinking about the question of if the BBCE is drying up?
I think that puts Steve in a very difficult situation. First he does not sell the new stuff like D&A to keep cash flow going. Second if he has difficulty purchasing products he has to raise his buy prices which he has done. But since there is so much debate as to how much prices have actually gone up. (The Dugout has higher prices but does not seem to sell as quickly). If Steve pays too much for the product, then it would sit and he would not be able to turn it for a profit. If he does not pay enough he does not get the product in the first place. I also think this might be one of the reason they seem to be diversifying more into autographs and graded cards. So if Steve see thinks he needs to diversify then i would think he believes at some point in time, either now or in the future he will have difficulty finding product.
So my thinking is - yes unopened material is drying up and there is not enough (bulk) unopened material to keep the business model going as it once was. If it was just a move from the 70's to the 80's product being available I think Steve could very easily make that move and would be well stocked in that area.
Just a though anyone else agree or disagree? >>
I agree. Nothing worse than being a distributor and have no merchandise to sell. I noticed about a month ago Steve bought an 82 Topps case off of ebay, so one might conclude that his normal model for product (inventory) acquisition is coming up short. Ironically, with Steve being an integral part of the PSA pack grading process, and the resultant spike in demand for unopened product over the last year, he is assisting in upending his own business. "Unopened" product now has more of a market demand for its unopened condition as collectible vs its break up value, where its always been in the past.
Steve has a current cost structure designed for how the market was (warehouse, staff, Travel for buying trips, etc.) which was all predicated on turning inventory. If the inventory can't be had, there is nothing to turn. I always thought his move into the pack authentication business was brilliant. Higher margin. Less work. No inventory.
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all "right-thinking" people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
I think it is safe to say one thing: With 1970s stuff pretty much gone, 1980s to early 1990s unopened wax/cello/racks from products that have HOF rookie cards really have nowhere to go but UP in the the years to come. So as long as the buyer enjoys ripping packs (in a worst case scenario), it is very low risk to buy that stuff at their current low prices.
<< <i>Tip of the cap to those of you who bought '70s unopened and have managed to keep it unopened.
You guys should be sitting on gold in about 5-10 years.
Tim are they talking about you?????? >>
Shhhh.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. >>
I noticed you were up to bat first! That clearly will be a nice little acquisition as time passes on. Strike that, it is now!
One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box.
In terms of the best unopened (box) material ever presented on this forum, it's hard to beat this. (Take note of slots #1 & #2!)
<< <i>and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. >>
I noticed you were up to bat first! That clearly will be a nice little acquisition as time passes on. Strike that, it is now!
One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box.
In terms of the best unopened (box) material ever presented on this forum, it's hard to beat this. (Take note of slots #1 & #2!)
Have a good weekend, brethren... >>
It looks like I bought 4 packs from that break.... I should have left them unopened....
<< <i> One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box. Have a good weekend, brethren... >>
That is an interesting point, it has certainly realigned my buying priorities and accelerated my unopened purchases! I have finally sorted my card-room (2 straight weeks of 16 hour days). I have a few pics and will load them up soon.
Not sure why the unopened would go up as packs get ripped...at the end of the day there is a fixed amount of cards out there whether they are sitting in a pack or a top loader or psa slab does not change the underlying value of the cards.
<< <i>and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. >>
I noticed you were up to bat first! That clearly will be a nice little acquisition as time passes on. Strike that, it is now!
One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box.
In terms of the best unopened (box) material ever presented on this forum, it's hard to beat this. (Take note of slots #1 & #2!)
Have a good weekend, brethren... >>
It looks like I bought 4 packs from that break.... I should have left them unopened.... >>
I bought 5 packs and still have 3 PSA 8's stashed in my closet.
Joe
The last purchase from BBCE was back in February.
Coming up on 4 months.
1981 Topps Baseball Unopened Grocery Rack Case
I was looking for a rack case but saw this and bought it
I've been participating in the group rips since they started and the one remarkable aspect for me is just how rare it has become to see a sealed case of anything from the 1970s come up for sale nowadays. In the first couple of years, we saw sealed cases from 1975, 1977, 1978 and 1980 Topps baseball wax. I dont think we've seen another since that 1977 box.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
As prices of boxes go up, I am having a harder time justifying opening them. A $10 box of 89 Fleer I could rip with no trouble and throw away what I dont want. A box of 1981 Topps, where now they are nearing $200, I would treat every card like a star card with potential grading, even if its clearly miscut as I wont throw it away. So it becomes a debate about whether to open or not. They are more valuable closed, but there is the potential of them being even more valuable upon opening, or just normal cards.
I know that I am losing money by doing this, but I throw away all miscut cards. I must have trashed 1000s of minis and perhaps over 10,000 cards from 1976-79. - Let's say I keep 100 out of 500 from a 1977 vending with 20-30 potential 9s and 10s, and the rest good for a strong NM/MT raw set. It becomes a simple calculation for me to determine the appropriate price of an unopened vending - then I add on top of it the premium for the rarity of that particular year in unopened. The premium for 1970s cards have skyrocketed. Therefore, Mygotta you are right, it is becoming obviously skewed toward keeping the packs, boxes, and cases sealed until the retail prices of the PSA cards justify the break...or eventually the case prices must decrease to more closely align to the conversion rate of raw unopened (highly doubtful). Therefore, I have consistently been a bull-market voice over the past several years.
<< <i>I know that I am losing money by doing this, but I throw away all miscut cards. I must have trashed 1000s of minis and perhaps over 10,000 cards from 1976-79. - Let's say I keep 100 out of 500 from a 1977 vending with 20-30 potential 9s and 10s, and the rest good for a strong NM/MT raw set. It becomes a simple calculation for me to determine the appropriate price of an unopened vending - then I add on top of it the premium for the rarity of that particular year in unopened. The premium for 1970s cards have skyrocketed. Therefore, Mygotta you are right, it is becoming obviously skewed toward keeping the packs, boxes, and cases sealed until the retail prices of the PSA cards justify the break...or eventually the case prices must decrease to more closely align to the conversion rate of raw unopened (highly doubtful). Therefore, I have consistently been a bull-market voice over the past several years. >>
1000's of minis? Could have made a mid-grade set at least. That would be my position. I am still working on putting together a low grade 73 set and wonder if this is even a worthy investment as I need all of the star cards. And then a high grade 74 set will be more costly and wonder if the cost per card will allow any profit on the matter. I have not calculated the costs, but it does not leave a lot of room for profit. But its a fun project either way.
actually I probably threw away well over 10,000 minis come to think of it, I broke about 2 and 1/4 cases of wax and dozens of raw sets/lots. If the name touches the bottom edge I toss it. Anyone who has broken minis knows that could describe 70% of a case. I just broke about 15 1977 vending and 10 1976 vending with similar centering problems and just dumped the miscut cards. I dont see the point of building a set of miscuts regardless of what I could get for it on ebay. there would be a 50% chance of complaint even if I described the set as miscut I suspect.
Not all of the 1980's is going to be drying up. I think some people are jumping the gun with the late 80's drying up. When prices are rising many hold off on selling. Once they stop the supply comes out.
The older stuff has been busted so hard that it is much easier to determine for certain that the unopened supply has been drastically reduced.
The early 80's is in the sweet spot and that is why the prices of boxes easily jumped so much. There are cards in those packs that people want and command huge money in graded form. That is what is missing from the late 80's product. A lot of the cards are nice and easily found in strong condition for many of the most important cards. The Barry Larkin PSA 10 I subbed came from some sets I bought from my first economics professor Jack Chambless looking for nice Barry Bonds cards when his 87 Fleer was taking off. There are tons of these out there still siting in factory sets.
The prices may keep going up for sure on the later 80's product but that is a function of more people trying to buy it for investment then it is for the cards in side. It is cheap so large amounts can be bought for speculation.
We have been in a rising market for sure for trading cards but I think longer term pack prices are supported by either the rarity of the pack or the potential value of the cards inside so the most important piece is going to be what are graded card prices doing from the sets. This is a huge driver or pack prices and perhaps the most important for most packs.
I don't know enough about the activity in the early 80's unopened pack market to really say it is drying up. I would think there is still plenty out there but I just don't know.
The latter 80's it is not a speculation on my part. It is out there.
I think the early 80's though is in the sweet spot because you can actually hit higher priced cards. A pack of 1981 Topps in theory could have a PSA 10 Kirk Gibson or perhaps the elusive Fernando Valenzuela PSA 10.
Packs are like lottery tickets. They are a gamble but enough people have won to keep people coming back. Plus the excitement is undeniable.
This is a great thread! I agree with most here: 70's is drying up and drying up fast. Ya, it's out there, but not in quantities that allow everyone who wants it to get it. That is called supply and demand. I think the BBCE site confirms this, not just now, but in the past 6 months. I have been purchasing 81-83 Topps for a little while now and I will continue until it becomes too costly ( a subjective term that is defined be each person). I have cases of mid to late 80's Fleer, Topps, Score, and UD that can be had for pennies on the dollar I paid for them (with a few exceptions). Needless to say, it's gonna be a long time before any of this supply dries up. Another factor I believe impacts the market; star power or "the rookie factor". Who are the future HOFer's coming from the 90's? There's not a lot of shoo-ins. I know this opens up a new topic, but if the player pool of super star players aren't there, then the price support won't be there either. As a fan of the group rips, and a buyer from BBCE, I have not opened hardly any packs or boxes I have purchased, I'm in a stock pile mode. I think Steve will adapt where he can; there will always be markets to exploit and profit from. Back in 1990, Topps had 4 or 5 products, all over produced. Now Topps has dozens of sets, all printed in much lower print runs. I have bet on Heritage because I like the product. I open a lot and save a little. In 30 years, we won't have everyone looking for 4-5 products, there will be hundreds of low print run sets to choose from. And that's my take...
CURRENT PROJECTS IN WORK: To be honest, no direction, but... 1966-69 Topps EX+ 1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9 All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
<< <i>I don't know enough about the activity in the early 80's unopened pack market to really say it is drying up. I would think there is still plenty out there but I just don't know. >>
"There are cards in those (early 80's) packs that people want and command huge money in graded form."
Other than a 1980 Henderson PSA 10, what early 80's card from a pack commands huge money?
I saw his '81 in 10 just hit $700, but I'm hard pressed to name a card one can pull from an 80s pack that would fetch say 1k in PSA 10. It seems 82 Ripken Topps and Fleer, and 84D Mattingly are the high at about $500. That's a pretty penny, but the odds of pulling a specimen that grades out 10 are always very slim.
So if box prices rise to a certain level, ripping will be a big money loser. This has become the case with the 70s stuff already I'd imagine; stringent grading standards plus poor factory quality plus high box prices mean ripping is a bad move.
Personally, I think there are so many guys out there with 80's cases stashed away for investment and so relatively few ripping these for PSA 10 $1000 scores that the 80s stuff will never soar in price. I'd go with a strong HOF RC all day.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>If those are the best PSA 10 prices you can find, whose side are you arguing? >>
Remember that those prices are from the last 15 days only. They are admittedly not high,
but they were selling better earlier this spring. Then you have to consider that they're
getting these cards very very cheaply to begin with since they buy cases and bust 'em,
then they get a reduced quantity grading fee from PSA.
So 25-50 bucks for some of these cards is not bad if you can sell enough of them.
And they do. >>
I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card?
-CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
*1956 Topps baseball- 97.4% complete, 7.24 GPA
*Clemente basic set: 85.0% complete, 7.89 GPA
<< <i>I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
That is a good question. We'd have to know how cheaply they get their cases,
their bulk grading rates, and what their percentage of PSA 10 hits is -- to even
approximate their potential profit on a case of cards.
But my observation from my own experience is that from an $8 wax box you can generally
get at least one really good gradable card, or approximately 20 cards from a wax case.
If you're willing to sell $15 cards you can probably double that number.
But lets say the case cost $150, and you grade 20 cards at $4 apiece (guessing the 4SC discount rate).
So you have roughly $230 worth of skin in the game. If half of the cards you subbed
are PSA 10 cards worth $25 then you've broken even. But I think they probably do better
than 50%. And some of the cards will be $40 or even $50. A Chipper Jones can sell for $85
on eBay. And some of the PSA 9 cards will fetch close to $10, Chipper sells for about $15.
The key to making this equation work is QUANTITY -- that's why 4SC has sold 120,000 items on eBAY.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>If those are the best PSA 10 prices you can find, whose side are you arguing? >>
Remember that those prices are from the last 15 days only. They are admittedly not high,
but they were selling better earlier this spring. Then you have to consider that they're
getting these cards very very cheaply to begin with since they buy cases and bust 'em,
then they get a reduced quantity grading fee from PSA.
So 25-50 bucks for some of these cards is not bad if you can sell enough of them.
And they do. >>
I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
They have been doing this a long time. They are not in the game to lose money. The business model is working for them for sure (in my opinion of course).
aconte
<< <i>They have been doing this a long time. They are not in the game to lose money. The business model is working for them for sure (in my opinion of course).
aconte >>
That's correct. And it's one of the reasons why BBCE can't sell you a 1988-91 Topps rack case
or even a box for that matter. Outfits like 4SC are gobbling them up faster than they can reach
the market. And they're grabbing them on eBAY too if the price is right.
Everyone jokes about how much junk wax is out there -- well it's dwindling at a faster rate
every day because there are nice profits to be made selling graded cards from the junk
wax years since the acquisition cost is still low.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>Personally, I think we will have a better view after the National. But thats just my guess. >>
What do you think is going to happen in Chicago? Obviously they're will be a big gathering around the BBCE booth. I wonder if there we be any fights
<< <i>I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
This is the 4SC niche and why I would rather buy the card for $50 than 8 boxes along with grading fees, supplies and shipping to try for a 10.
<< <i>This is the 4SC niche and why I would rather buy the card for $50 than 8 boxes along with grading fees, supplies and shipping to try for a 10. >>
+1
If I didn't have a full time job, a family, my hobby and a life I would love to buy 20-25 cases, break them, sub them and make my money back $5 at a time, but I will let 4SC do that. It isn't worth the effort to me.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
<< <i>
<< <i>I see what you're saying, but how many boxes of that crap do you have to bust, and how many failed (reduced or no) grading fees do you have to pay to obtain that elusive $25-$50 card? >>
This is the 4SC niche and why I would rather buy the card for $50 than 8 boxes along with grading fees, supplies and shipping to try for a 10. >>
I don't recall anyone asking you to do that. LOL
This only makes sense if you're doing it on a big scale like 4SC does. But it is one of the reasons
that BBCE doesn't have any 1988-91 Topps baseball rack boxes. The thread is about BBCE
running dry on things and in some cases they appear to be.
They do have some wax boxes (no cases) for those years but your odds go down
on pulling decent PSA 10 cards from those.
DaveB in St.Louis
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards.
<< <i>4SC is good for those 87-92 PSA 10 cards that you can get for around $10. It is definitely not worth sending in a Dale Murphy (or Nolan Ryan if thats your game) card from those years when you can just buy it cheaper than chance it for $10.
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards. >>
Ryan is worth it if you think you have a 50-50 shot at a 10.
You can usually get $30 for a PSA 10 Ryan and and 7-8 for PSA 9.
I agree about Murphy.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>
<< <i>4SC is good for those 87-92 PSA 10 cards that you can get for around $10. It is definitely not worth sending in a Dale Murphy (or Nolan Ryan if thats your game) card from those years when you can just buy it cheaper than chance it for $10.
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards. >>
Ryan is worth it if you think you have a 50-50 shot at a 10.
You can usually get $30 for a PSA 10 Ryan and and 7-8 for PSA 9.
I agree about Murphy. >>
87 Topps Murphy in 10 goes for north of $50 consistently. 5 years ago, 2 copies of the card both sold for over $200.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>4SC is good for those 87-92 PSA 10 cards that you can get for around $10. It is definitely not worth sending in a Dale Murphy (or Nolan Ryan if thats your game) card from those years when you can just buy it cheaper than chance it for $10.
Other cards like a Griffey or Johnson might be worth the challenge, but in general, they provide a nice cheap niche for player cards. >>
Ryan is worth it if you think you have a 50-50 shot at a 10.
You can usually get $30 for a PSA 10 Ryan and and 7-8 for PSA 9.
I agree about Murphy. >>
87 Topps Murphy in 10 goes for north of $50 consistently. 5 years ago, 2 copies of the card both sold for over $200. >>
Granted some exceptions to the rule. I have gotten Tiffany cards cheaper than its standard counterpart. But I was generalizing to some degree based on experience. Obviously A Thomas or Griffey rookie does not fall into this category, but you may star cards can be had relatively cheap, especially when they have a handful of them or other sellers have them, they will offer them cheaper.
I bought an 87 Larkin for $35, I think they are $25 now.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>87 Topps Murphy in 10 goes for north of $50 consistently. 5 years ago, 2 copies of the card both sold for over $200. >>
87 and 90 can sell for $50 in PSA 10, but 88, 89, 91 only about $15.
These aren't bad prices.
DaveB in St.Louis
Tip of the cap to those of you who bought '70s unopened and have managed to keep it unopened.
-CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
*1956 Topps baseball- 97.4% complete, 7.24 GPA
*Clemente basic set: 85.0% complete, 7.89 GPA
You guys should be sitting on gold in about 5-10 years.
-CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
*1956 Topps baseball- 97.4% complete, 7.24 GPA
*Clemente basic set: 85.0% complete, 7.89 GPA
You guys should be sitting on gold in about 5-10 years.
Tim are they talking about you??????
'81 Fleer wax box
'82 Donruss wax box
'82 Fleer wax box
'85 Donruss wax box
'85 Topps wax box
In my opinion, '85 Donruss was the best option in that group.
-CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
*1956 Topps baseball- 97.4% complete, 7.24 GPA
*Clemente basic set: 85.0% complete, 7.89 GPA
And then we have '81 Topps. Steve busted a wax case at the beginning of last November -- $90 apiece. Fast forward to today and note the ascension when viewing items sold.
$500+ with a mangled box.
Another from BBCE.
Up, up and away...
<< <i>ivegotta disagree with you again, mygotta. 1980 Topps has blasted off. Last fall, wax boxes were moving on eBay in the $300-$325 neighborhood. Steve's buy price is currently $400.
And then we have '81 Topps. Steve busted a wax case at the beginning of last November -- $90 apiece. Fast forward to today and note the ascension when viewing items sold. >>
I actually missed the boat on the lower 1980 box prices at $300 each . So I am coming from the point of view that everyone in the world stopped collecting in 1989 and started again in 2012 (i kid of course). That said, I am aware the current price on 1980, and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. But I checked back in 2009 from this board and 1983 boxes were $140, the same price they were last november. I think they are near $180 now. They have gone up recently, but not as significant as the 70's. 1982, we saw the case sell out in 24 hours, so the demand is up. But whether the prices will rise as dramatic it might appear I guessing probably not. Thats my thinking at the moment.
I think some people look at what has happened with the late-1970s and think the same will happen in 5-7 years with the mid-1980s. That is most definitely not going to be the case (no pun intended).
I think that puts Steve in a very difficult situation. First he does not sell the new stuff like D&A to keep cash flow going. Second if he has difficulty purchasing products he has to raise his buy prices which he has done. But since there is so much debate as to how much prices have actually gone up. (The Dugout has higher prices but does not seem to sell as quickly). If Steve pays too much for the product, then it would sit and he would not be able to turn it for a profit. If he does not pay enough he does not get the product in the first place. I also think this might be one of the reason they seem to be diversifying more into autographs and graded cards. So if Steve see thinks he needs to diversify then i would think he believes at some point in time, either now or in the future he will have difficulty finding product.
So my thinking is - yes unopened material is drying up and there is not enough (bulk) unopened material to keep the business model going as it once was. If it was just a move from the 70's to the 80's product being available I think Steve could very easily make that move and would be well stocked in that area.
Just a though anyone else agree or disagree?
I've actually been wondering why BBCE hasn't gotten into moving more modern product. I would imagine the size of their operation compared to D&A would make it difficult to compete but it seems like they're inching closer and closer. I remember a few years ago it seemed like BBCE didn't have any product in stock for the most current ~3 years. Now I'm seeing 2012 product in their store.
1. I doubt Steve has a cash flow problem--he just can't seem to find the stuff. And I doubt that people are asking too much--they just ain't calling him
2. if Steve had product, I doubt that he would be sitting on it for too long. Too many unopened collectors on this board alone
3. I agree that if the businees model of selling just vintage unopened was what Steve had in mind--he would be out of busines soon. I think it's his favorite niche and part of his business, but he can't survive on waiting for people to call him with unopened. That's why I think he hooked up with Reed. Good move as it turns out
4. The OP was "is BBCE drying up?" The answer of course is yes--but they ain't alone--it's all being buried in people's collections which will be sold little at a time over the next 10-15 years
<< <i>only my thoughts....but
1. I doubt Steve has a cash flow problem--he just can't seem to find the stuff. And I doubt that people are asking too much--they just ain't calling him
2. if Steve had product, I doubt that he would be sitting on it for too long. Too many unopened collectors on this board alone
3. I agree that if the businees model of selling just vintage unopened was what Steve had in mind--he would be out of busines soon. I think it's his favorite niche and part of his business, but he can't survive on waiting for people to call him with unopened. That's why I think he hooked up with Reed. Good move as it turns out
4. The OP was "is BBCE drying up?" The answer of course is yes--but they ain't alone--it's all being buried in people's collections which will be sold little at a time over the next 10-15 years >>
A recent post on FB suggested they are getting some 80's stuff in. But I see their eBay page and they do a lot of graded cards, packs and auto memorabilia that I am sure helps support his role in getting unopened material. So again, he is not solely relying on pack or box sales to support the business.
<< <i>I was thinking about the question of if the BBCE is drying up?
I think that puts Steve in a very difficult situation. First he does not sell the new stuff like D&A to keep cash flow going. Second if he has difficulty purchasing products he has to raise his buy prices which he has done. But since there is so much debate as to how much prices have actually gone up. (The Dugout has higher prices but does not seem to sell as quickly). If Steve pays too much for the product, then it would sit and he would not be able to turn it for a profit. If he does not pay enough he does not get the product in the first place. I also think this might be one of the reason they seem to be diversifying more into autographs and graded cards. So if Steve see thinks he needs to diversify then i would think he believes at some point in time, either now or in the future he will have difficulty finding product.
So my thinking is - yes unopened material is drying up and there is not enough (bulk) unopened material to keep the business model going as it once was. If it was just a move from the 70's to the 80's product being available I think Steve could very easily make that move and would be well stocked in that area.
Just a though anyone else agree or disagree? >>
Assuming all 70's are completely dried up, save for the amount that collector's have and are not in the market for resale. And 80's are getting closer to drying up. There is still the lag of 90's and then the 2000's out there too that will eventually be considered "classic" or "modern vintage" or "dated" unopened material. I dont know how plentiful the 2000's are, but that stuff is expensive out of the Topps door, so its a different market. A box of 2001 Heritage is at $250 and up. Are there cases floating around? I have no clue. But he can always move into that territory. So I think his model can maintain, just move into a different era.
<< <i>I was thinking about the question of if the BBCE is drying up?
I think that puts Steve in a very difficult situation. First he does not sell the new stuff like D&A to keep cash flow going. Second if he has difficulty purchasing products he has to raise his buy prices which he has done. But since there is so much debate as to how much prices have actually gone up. (The Dugout has higher prices but does not seem to sell as quickly). If Steve pays too much for the product, then it would sit and he would not be able to turn it for a profit. If he does not pay enough he does not get the product in the first place. I also think this might be one of the reason they seem to be diversifying more into autographs and graded cards. So if Steve see thinks he needs to diversify then i would think he believes at some point in time, either now or in the future he will have difficulty finding product.
So my thinking is - yes unopened material is drying up and there is not enough (bulk) unopened material to keep the business model going as it once was. If it was just a move from the 70's to the 80's product being available I think Steve could very easily make that move and would be well stocked in that area.
Just a though anyone else agree or disagree? >>
I agree. Nothing worse than being a distributor and have no merchandise to sell. I noticed about a month ago Steve bought an 82 Topps case off of ebay, so one might conclude that his normal model for product (inventory) acquisition is coming up short. Ironically, with Steve being an integral part of the PSA pack grading process, and the resultant spike in demand for unopened product over the last year, he is assisting in upending his own business. "Unopened" product now has more of a market demand for its unopened condition as collectible vs its break up value, where its always been in the past.
Steve has a current cost structure designed for how the market was (warehouse, staff, Travel for buying trips, etc.) which was all predicated on turning inventory. If the inventory can't be had, there is nothing to turn. I always thought his move into the pack authentication business was brilliant. Higher margin. Less work. No inventory.
This is known as “bad luck.”
<< <i>Tip of the cap to those of you who bought '70s unopened and have managed to keep it unopened.
You guys should be sitting on gold in about 5-10 years.
Tim are they talking about you??????
Shhhh.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. >>
I noticed you were up to bat first! That clearly will be a nice little acquisition as time passes on. Strike that, it is now!
One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box.
In terms of the best unopened (box) material ever presented on this forum, it's hard to beat this. (Take note of slots #1 & #2!)
Have a good weekend, brethren...
<< <i>
<< <i>and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. >>
I noticed you were up to bat first! That clearly will be a nice little acquisition as time passes on. Strike that, it is now!
One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box.
In terms of the best unopened (box) material ever presented on this forum, it's hard to beat this. (Take note of slots #1 & #2!)
Have a good weekend, brethren... >>
It looks like I bought 4 packs from that break....
I should have left them unopened....
<< <i>
One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box.
Have a good weekend, brethren... >>
That is an interesting point, it has certainly realigned my buying priorities and accelerated my unopened purchases! I have finally sorted my card-room (2 straight weeks of 16 hour days). I have a few pics and will load them up soon.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>and was able to grab an 81 box at $90 from BBCE. >>
I noticed you were up to bat first! That clearly will be a nice little acquisition as time passes on. Strike that, it is now!
One thing I've love to know is the effect this very forum has had on the unopened market. Obviously very difficult to quantify, but I bet it's more impactful than one might think. I'll be honest, "enablers" such as cpamike and grote lured yours truly in. And speaking of the former, has he been hibernating? I keep having this recurring visual of him taking a lengthy siesta with his head resting on his 74 Topps box.
In terms of the best unopened (box) material ever presented on this forum, it's hard to beat this. (Take note of slots #1 & #2!)
Have a good weekend, brethren... >>
It looks like I bought 4 packs from that break....
I should have left them unopened.... >>
I bought 5 packs and still have 3 PSA 8's stashed in my closet.
Joe
The last purchase from BBCE was back in February.
Coming up on 4 months.
1981 Topps Baseball Unopened Grocery Rack Case
I was looking for a rack case but saw this and bought it
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I know that I am losing money by doing this, but I throw away all miscut cards. I must have trashed 1000s of minis and perhaps over 10,000 cards from 1976-79.
1000's of minis? Could have made a mid-grade set at least. That would be my position. I am still working on putting together a low grade 73 set and wonder if this is even a worthy investment as I need all of the star cards. And then a high grade 74 set will be more costly and wonder if the cost per card will allow any profit on the matter. I have not calculated the costs, but it does not leave a lot of room for profit. But its a fun project either way.
The older stuff has been busted so hard that it is much easier to determine for certain that the unopened supply has been drastically reduced.
The early 80's is in the sweet spot and that is why the prices of boxes easily jumped so much. There are cards in those packs that people want and command huge money in graded form. That is what is missing from the late 80's product. A lot of the cards are nice and easily found in strong condition for many of the most important cards. The Barry Larkin PSA 10 I subbed came from some sets I bought from my first economics professor Jack Chambless looking for nice Barry Bonds cards when his 87 Fleer was taking off. There are tons of these out there still siting in factory sets.
The prices may keep going up for sure on the later 80's product but that is a function of more people trying to buy it for investment then it is for the cards in side. It is cheap so large amounts can be bought for speculation.
We have been in a rising market for sure for trading cards but I think longer term pack prices are supported by either the rarity of the pack or the potential value of the cards inside so the most important piece is going to be what are graded card prices doing from the sets. This is a huge driver or pack prices and perhaps the most important for most packs.
The latter 80's it is not a speculation on my part. It is out there.
I think the early 80's though is in the sweet spot because you can actually hit higher priced cards. A pack of 1981 Topps in theory could have a PSA 10 Kirk Gibson or perhaps the elusive Fernando Valenzuela PSA 10.
Packs are like lottery tickets. They are a gamble but enough people have won to keep people coming back. Plus the excitement is undeniable.
To be honest, no direction, but...
1966-69 Topps EX+
1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9
All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
<< <i>I don't know enough about the activity in the early 80's unopened pack market to really say it is drying up. I would think there is still plenty out there but I just don't know. >>
really?
Other than a 1980 Henderson PSA 10, what early 80's card from a pack commands huge money?
I saw his '81 in 10 just hit $700, but I'm hard pressed to name a card one can pull from an 80s pack that would fetch say 1k in PSA 10. It seems 82 Ripken Topps and Fleer, and 84D Mattingly are the high at about $500. That's a pretty penny, but the odds of pulling a specimen that grades out 10 are always very slim.
So if box prices rise to a certain level, ripping will be a big money loser. This has become the case with the 70s stuff already I'd imagine; stringent grading standards plus poor factory quality plus high box prices mean ripping is a bad move.
Personally, I think there are so many guys out there with 80's cases stashed away for investment and so relatively few ripping these for PSA 10 $1000 scores that the 80s stuff will never soar in price. I'd go with a strong HOF RC all day.