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Is BBCE finally drying up?
Foo3112
Posts: 1,961
Ive been following their site for the past year now and it seems that 70's is becoming more scarce and even certain 1980's products are beginning to run. out. Prices are being raised on a few products meaning there running short/down to there last packs/boxes. 1976 Cello's are up in price. 1984 Donruss wax box's are up an extra $10 ($230 now). 1985 Topps wax boxes were $79.99 and then shot up to $95 about a month ago and now they are completely sold out. 1980 Topps wax boxes sold out about 2 months ago. 1982 just finished and even all of the 1986 Topps wax boxes are officially out of stock!
Sure, there are still plenty of new product but will the 80's start becoming the new 70's anytime soon as far as scarcity. I'm not talking about 1988 Donruss (yet) but eventually those also will have its day - just probably not in our lifetime.
Sure, there are still plenty of new product but will the 80's start becoming the new 70's anytime soon as far as scarcity. I'm not talking about 1988 Donruss (yet) but eventually those also will have its day - just probably not in our lifetime.
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At the same time, the selling prices on individual boxes of some of the stuff I am looking for have seen an increase. Certain boxes you would have a tough time moving at $5 per box a few years ago often now sells for $15 to $30 per box.
-A lot more un-openend collectors are in the market. These people are holding on to the product as a collectible.
-You have the guys that are busting as much un-openend product as they can get trying to chase that elusive PSA 10. The PSA registry has a big influence on this.
-You have the guys that are for lack of a better term, "hoarding" as much as possible to cash in later.
-You have the guys that have the product but want a fortune for it.
-You have the "older" guys that have been sitting on product but don't want to sell yet.
-Lastly, the guys (like me) who grew up busting late 70's and early 80's stuff are in their low-mid 40's and have the disposable cash to buy the product.
Just my 2 cents.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
The Zodiac Collection
My PC: The Zodiac Collection
<< <i>Yes it is drying up.
There is a limited amount of this stuff.
We've all seen the availability decrease as prices have increased. >>
And this is contrary to what would be expected. You would expect availability to increase as price rises. This means to me either there is a shortage of material or those willing to sell don't feel the price has risen to an appropriate level. IMO it's a combination of the two.
whoever is sitting on quality right now can just keep waiting. the longer the perception holds that this stuff is getting harder and harder to acquire, the better those that still own it will do.
it makes no sense to overload the market to the point where the only newly discovered product can come from private stashes, so maybe some people are holding out for the time being because they can't lose, only win more.
just wait until a few more years pass and see what level these "rare" unopened boxes and cases ascend to. and folks will still pay.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
This is what should happen.
Because it is not it can only be two things. There is actually very low supply or it will take higher prices for sellers to offer the product.
It would seem to me that it has to be a combination of both dwindling supply and sellers not willing to part ways with their inventory at current prices.
Tons of product is being opened and a large amount is being graded or hoarded for investment. At high enough prices you have to expect some of the investment product makes its way back to the market.
Because the supply curve is upward sloping it indicates at higher prices a seller is willing to offer more product and at these future expected higher prices if a large amount of supply does not come to market you will then have had a true shift in the real supply that actually still exists.
Until then it would seem the jury is still out.
Probstein123 has for sale, and Fritsch.
<< <i>I wouldn't say that it is "drying up" as much as it is not as plentiful as a few years ago. It is due to the following reasons:
-A lot more un-openend collectors are in the market. These people are holding on to the product as a collectible.
-You have the guys that are busting as much un-openend product as they can get trying to chase that elusive PSA 10. The PSA registry has a big influence on this.
-You have the guys that are for lack of a better term, "hoarding" as much as possible to cash in later.
-You have the guys that have the product but want a fortune for it.
-You have the "older" guys that have been sitting on product but don't want to sell yet.
-Lastly, the guys (like me) who grew up busting late 70's and early 80's stuff are in their low-mid 40's and have the disposable cash to buy the product.
Just my 2 cents.
Mark >>
I agree with Mark's 2 cents and raise him another 2 cents.
Good thing I loaded up when I did.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
-You have the guys that are busting as much un-openend product as they can get trying to chase that elusive PSA 10. The PSA registry has a big influence on this.
>>
I do have a feeling that some day we are gonna see one of these guys on a hoarding illness related reality television show.
I noticed the page numbers of 80's dropped from 7 to 6, which told me they have not been getting newer inventory of that stuff. So I guess we should start seeing some price changes once it gets replenished. I usually check their pricing before I buy on eBay cause BBCE usually has the best prices as well as the best stuff. They had 86 Topps at $13 a box, when eBay wants almost $30.
OPC stuff is getting that much harder to find, especially for early 80's and since this boards posting about 91 OPC, I have not seen a single box on eBay. Someone had mentioned that they foresee the modern vintage (1975-1985) making a surge in pricing as Vintage stuff becomes more elusive.
<< <i>One only has to look at 75 Minis. They could be had for 1000 or so a box around and just after the conlon auction and its 26 cases. Now they cant keep it in stock at 1800 and you dont see it anymore. >>
+1
Definitely a decrease in supplyu and/or collectoirs willing to part with product at cvurrent buy prices.
Fritsch is the only dealer other than BBCE that I would trust for raw unopened product unless it was from a source I already knew and/or trusted.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Yes it is drying up.
There is a limited amount of this stuff.
We've all seen the availability decrease as prices have increased. >>
Paul, I don't know if I would use the word "drying up". Obviously everytime someone opens a pack/box that means there is one less available. The true question is how much was out there to begin with. Take 79 Topps that I know you are all too knowledgeable about, there may be 1,000 wax cases out there. Maybe there is only 5. Nobody really knows. One thing to remember, I am sure there are people out there with a lot of inventory that are not going to just flood the market.....i.e. Fritsch. He has tons of un-openend but limits what hits the market. That makes perfect sense if you are running a business or wanting to increase your profits.
I am not saying that there is an unlimited supply of un-opened but I also don't think it is "dryed up" either.
BTW, if CpaMike and Grote would come off of their vaults, maybe we could bring the prices down a bit.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
<< <i>
BTW, if CpaMike and Grote would come off of their vaults, maybe we could bring the prices down a bit.
Mark >>
I'll let Mike go first..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
that's just my opinion
<< <i>Typically, Reed from BBCE chimes in when he sees a thread about BBCE....but he has been eerily quiet on this. >>
He's most likely still on a timeout, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Typically, Reed from BBCE chimes in when he sees a thread about BBCE....but he has been eerily quiet on this. >>
He's most likely still on a timeout, lol.. >>
LOL...I remember that too, but I think Steve has loosened up on that, as Reed had posted quite a bit since that incident...especially as it relates to BBCE.
<< <i>One only has to look at 75 Minis. They could be had for 1000 or so a box around and just after the conlon auction and its 26 cases. Now they cant keep it in stock at 1800 and you dont see it anymore. >>
That's why I bought two boxes and have sat on them. The $1000 price tag was ridiculously low, even with the amount of product being dumped onto the market.
<< <i>-You have the "older" guys that have been sitting on product but don't want to sell yet. >>
Hiya Mark
Thanx for reminding me I'm getting old.
I pretty much agree with your assessment. Hoarding for future sale is a good thing.
Not sure why I even bought the stuff in the first place - but if I ever need dough - it's nice to know this stuff can come in handy.
<< <i>
<< <i>-You have the "older" guys that have been sitting on product but don't want to sell yet. >>
Hiya Mark
Thanx for reminding me I'm getting old.
I pretty much agree with your assessment - hoarding for future sale is a good thing.
Not sure why I even bought the stuff in the first place - but if I ever need dough - it's nice to know this stuff can come in handy. >>
Mike,
I meant more "mature"
Paul, I hear what you are saying. I think one reason why there seems to be somewhat of a scarcity and not on Steve's shelves is that there are people asking way more than the market would bear. BTW, quit busting all the 79's and share with the rest of us
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
a couple of cases. David (70stoppsfanatic) also encountered their reluctance to sell when he tried to put together a Fritsch group rip on these boards last year.
I'd say that unopened product from pre-1975 is especially scarce right now, with 1975 being a kind of watershed year, and one of the years for which it is not that
difficult to find unopened product. Late 70s and early 80s is getting tougher to find, but there is still too much product out there to define it as scarce. Even if a
79 wax box retails for, say $450, that's still just about $12 a pack, a pretty reasonable price, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I know for a fact that Fritsch still has dozens of 75 cello cases but they are just in no hurry to sell them, and in fact, have turned down strong requests to purchase
a couple of cases. David (70stoppsfanatic) also encountered their reluctance to sell when he tried to put together a Fritsch group rip on these boards last year.
I'd say that unopened product from pre-1975 is especially scarce right now, with 1975 being a kind of watershed year, and one of the years for which it is not that
difficult to find unopened product. Late 70s and early 80s is getting tougher to find, but there is still too much product out there to define it as scarce. Even if a
79 wax box retails for, say $450, that's still just about $12 a pack, a pretty reasonable price, imo. >>
Tim, I agree 100%. I think when people see not as much being for sale they automatically think it is drying up when it maybe people are not willing to part with it instead.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Seriously, PSA and the card grading market is the best thing that could have happened to BBCE or anyone that collects or deals in unopened material. As others have said, the temptation of a possible PSA 10 of certain players has made opening some of this stuff fun again and made for a big boost to the unopened market. A PSA 10 Rickey Henderson fetches 10K? So not surprising to see the $300 wax boxes being gobbled up and either sat on or ripped
TheClockworkAngelCollection
point at which if you want the material you are going to pay quite a bit more for it.
Look at 1973 Series 4 wax boxes as an example. 15 months ago one sold on Ebay for about $1800 to a member of this forum. In the November CollectAuctions
sale one went for over $3500 with the buyers premium!! In late 2011 a series 5 1973 wax box could be had for about $4300 and in the same November 2012
auction one went for over $6000!
Fritsch is very slowly letting their unopened out. You can't get them to sell in quantity. You can't even get them to discount at this point (last year there were still
ways to get 10%-15% discounts, but those days are gone). And who could argue with their approach? It's working for them very well (other than the 1971 Topps
vending which is just so outrageously priced that it is going to continue sitting in the Fritsch warehouse for the foreseeable future).
And as soon as anything from the 1970-1976 era shows up on BBCE's site, it's gobbled up within hours. Look at the 1975 Topps Mini and the 1972 Topps Ser 5/6
wax boxes that went up as the last break was getting off the ground. $1800 and $6600 respectively, and those may end up being real bargains.
Dave
<< <i>I know for a fact that Fritsch still has dozens of 75 cello cases but they are just in no hurry to sell them, and in fact, have turned down strong requests to purchase
a couple of cases. David (70stoppsfanatic) also encountered their reluctance to sell when he tried to put together a Fritsch group rip on these boards last year.
I'd say that unopened product from pre-1975 is especially scarce right now, with 1975 being a kind of watershed year, and one of the years for which it is not that
difficult to find unopened product. Late 70s and early 80s is getting tougher to find, but there is still too much product out there to define it as scarce. Even if a
79 wax box retails for, say $450, that's still just about $12 a pack, a pretty reasonable price, imo. >>
The hobby has had rumors of the supposed train car loads of cards Fritsch bought from Topps for several years and from what I understand, these rumors have been true. One can only imagine what they are sitting on right now and I wonder if anyone outside of the Fritsch family has actually eye balled the warehouse full of cards that they have. I am willing to bet they have hundreds of cases of cards from the 60's and 70's that they are sitting on and letting small amounts out at a time. I think that, as the unopened prices continue to rise we will certainly see more of the Fritsch stash appear as well as all the other smaller collections come out of the woodwork. I think many holders of vintage unopened material still feel that the price ceiling for these cards has not even approached the limit and they will continue to hold onto their collection and watch the prices increase like they would a fine wine collection.
<< <i>The hobby has had rumors of the supposed train car loads of cards Fritsch bought from Topps for several years and from what I understand, these rumors have been true. One can only imagine what they are sitting on right now and I wonder if anyone outside of the Fritsch family has actually eye balled the warehouse full of cards that they have >>
I would love to see an actual inventory list of what they have. I sometimes wonder if the "legends" are true. I have no doubt that they have quite a bit of inventory, but I remember when their inventory was described as "Shelves full of boxes" It has grown from shelves full of boxes, to truck loads to train cars to warehouses full of cases.
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<< <i>
<< <i>The hobby has had rumors of the supposed train car loads of cards Fritsch bought from Topps for several years and from what I understand, these rumors have been true. One can only imagine what they are sitting on right now and I wonder if anyone outside of the Fritsch family has actually eye balled the warehouse full of cards that they have >>
I would love to see an actual inventory list of what they have. I sometimes wonder if the "legends" are true. I have no doubt that they have quite a bit of inventory, but I remember when their inventory was described as "Shelves full of boxes" It has grown from shelves full of boxes, to truck loads to train cars to warehouses full of cases. >>
I think it is well documented that Fritsch did indeed buy train car loads of Topps excessive inventory but what I don't think is known is exactly how many years they did this and what years they made these purchases. I too would love to see an inventory list. I still wonder if anyone has actually seen this warehouse other than family members.
-BBCE still gets the "whale" or premium boxes in (i.e. the 86 Fleer basketball box that was just on there).
-The variety of years is still pretty high (i.e. non sport looks pretty good).
-Some years have a good selection of wax, rack and cello. His 80's football selection last year at one point was pretty good. Almost every year was represented by one or two types of packs.
-After the national, he gets in a lot of good products. You have to be quick though.
They have tons of stuff from the late 60s and early 70s for unopened.
They also have tons of factory fresh singles.
Of course they are going to advertise it as rare, and those who love unopened are going to believe them.
to keep it that way.
While their pricing has been high relative to other sources, people have been slowly paying those prices. The run up on the
boxes provided by Fritsch to Collect Auctions over the past year or so has also been impressive (with the 1973 Series 4 wax
box basically DOUBLING in that time being the eye-opening example).
Best guess is that we are still at the beginning of a significant run-up in vintage unopened prices.
Dave
are the original owners of the vintage unopened packs they sell. No other dealer can make that claim, and as the value of vintage unopened
continues to rise we will see more and more questionable or resealed packs enter the marketplace, like those counterfeit 1971 baseball and
football rack packs that were listed on ebay before finally being taken down last night.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Fortunately for them, it would seem they are financially stable since they aren't in a hurry to sell anything.
<< <i>The other benefit of ordering a pack from Fritsch is that you are guaranteed to get an authentic pack straight from the factory as they
are the original owners of the vintage unopened packs they sell. No other dealer can make that claim, and as the value of vintage unopened
continues to rise we will see more and more questionable or resealed packs enter the marketplace. >>
I am basically in agreement with you on this Tim. My only question about the Fritsch inventory is that given the number of slabbed star cello
packs they have offered for sale, were these packs that they discovered as they were working through each box? The alternative would be
to search all their boxes looking for for packs with stars on top and replacing them with other packs when they were found.
Said differently, the question is are these boxes as they were when they left the factory or are they searched with legitimate packs replacing
any star packs that were found? In both cases one could be confident that the packs are original and untampered with, but a clarification about
whether the boxes are original or modified would be useful information to have.
And as relates to the newly posted forum rules, this is NOT intended to suggest any nefarious or underhanded business practices by ANYONE!
It is intended as a legitimate question to understand what the inventory in question really is/isn't.
Dave
<< <i>
<< <i>The other benefit of ordering a pack from Fritsch is that you are guaranteed to get an authentic pack straight from the factory as they
are the original owners of the vintage unopened packs they sell. No other dealer can make that claim, and as the value of vintage unopened
continues to rise we will see more and more questionable or resealed packs enter the marketplace. >>
I am basically in agreement with you on this Tim. My only question about the Fritsch inventory is that given the number of slabbed star cello
packs they have offered for sale, were these packs that they discovered as they were working through each box? The alternative would be
to search all their boxes looking for for packs with stars on top and replacing them with other packs when they were found.
Said differently, the question is are these boxes as they were when they left the factory or are they searched with legitimate packs replacing
any star packs that were found? In both cases one could be confident that the packs are original and untampered with, but a clarification about
whether the boxes are original or modified would be useful information to have.
And as relates to the newly posted forum rules, this is NOT intended to suggest any nefarious or underhanded business practices by ANYONE!
It is intended as a legitimate question to understand what the inventory in question really is/isn't. >>
I think we can see from the packs they have sold on ebay over the past couple of years that there is a very reasonable % of star packs
to packs with commons on top. The vast majority of the packs they have listed or sold are actually those with commons on top, so my
determination is that they are simply breaking boxes and listing whatever packs come from that particular box, as the % of packs for
sale with stars on front and/or back is very appropriate for any given unopened and non-cherry picked box.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
John
Current obsession, all things Topps 1969 - 1972