Could it be that BBCE is drying up because you guys are ripping the living daylights out of all of the old wax, the supply is going down since it cannot be replaced, and the price is increasing for a dwindling supply?
<< <i>Could it be that BBCE is drying up because you guys are ripping the living daylights out of all of the old wax, the supply is going down since it cannot be replaced, and the price is increasing for a dwindling supply? >>
<< <i>Could it be that BBCE is drying up because you guys are ripping the living daylights out of all of the old wax, the supply is going down since it cannot be replaced, and the price is increasing for a dwindling supply? >>
<< <i>Virgin 70's sets (and lots) have become the new "rip" for me. No suprise as to who you find, but the conditions are a trip.
Not that I am a wax conservationist - I'd rip it if I had it in my hot, little hands. Just think the game has changed. >>
Hey Mike, that is something I was doing too in order to not rip my unopened stuff. I figured if I want to see the cards, I could look at '70's lots instead of ripping my packs. So far, it's worked.
"The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting: Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>personally, i think it would be unwise for Steve to tell us what he personally thinks, when it's pretty easy to tell what he's thinking and why. >>
totally agree with you itzagoner but he knows the answers more than anyone here does.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
If you follow his updates on Facebook, you'll get an idea of what they are finding out there on the never ending buying trips. It's pretty obvious that they aren't buying cases of 70's and early 80's material. Along with the speed at which particualr items sell out, it's an easy question to answer. Off topic, in the modern realm, one cool thing I found on their website was a 1997 Upper Deck Legends box, although it's extremely expensive ($550).
IMO Steve does not need to chime in on supply - we can figure that out...I would be more interested in reading about how many fraudulent packs/boxes/cases he has to reject each week and what are his options to uncover habitual offenders? It is an interesting question no? He probably has the potential to compile more data on where and who the major frauds are than anyone in the industry. However, what can he actually do about it? Or are there steps he can take to help clean the hobby up?
"The second deal in Long Beach turned up some lower grade BB sets, specifically 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, and 1967. In addition, I promised pics of this awesome deal in Long Beach, but Steve advised against it. That's too bad, because I picked up a couple killer vintage unopened items. As many have guessed, we have been holding back some stuff for the National. Not just vintage wax, but vintage sets, tough regional issues, graded cards, autographed memorabilia, etc. What everyone doesn't know is we've been holding back a TON of stuff since January; so much that the "hold" room has overflowed into second room. Yes, vintage unopened has become extremely difficult to find lately, but we have enough put away to support several group rips!
I've been dying to post pics of all this cool stuff we've been getting and share the stories about how we find this stuff, but you can imagine all the problems that could cause. When collectors know we have something, yet won't sell it to them or put them at the top of the list, feelings get hurt and nobody wins. There are often a dozen buyers for something like a 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Box; when we get one in, who do we sell it to? It's frustrating because we can't/won't/don't play favorites, so the only way to ensure everyone has a fair shot is to be at our booth at the National, on Wednesday, when the show opens. We understand not everyone can make the National, but it's the one show we do every year, and we need to do a bit of "showing off." You still have time to make plans; we encourage everyone to try to make it to Chicago and be there first thing on Wednesday. I can't speak on behalf of the hundreds of dealers at the convention, but visiting the TWO booths we have this year will be well worth your time.
Starting next month, we'll start leaking out details about what we'll have at the National, complete with pictures. You'll see a partial list of what we're bringing in future ads in SMR, SCD, and all the Beckett Magazines. I'm confident that our inventory will make last year's booth look weak, and let's face it, our booth last year in Baltimore was awesome. We've stashed some products that Steve, Rick, and I have never seen before, which considering our years in the hobby, is quite impressive. Based on how much volume we do as a company, unlike many of the other dealers in the room, you know we'll be priced competitively to sell. Stop by early and often; we'll be buying from the minute the first dealers walk in on Tuesday until the last dealers leave on Sunday, and as soon as we buy it, we'll turn around and put it out for sale.
Please, please, please do not call/email/harass Steve with questions, requests, etc. regarding what we'll have at the National. We'll provide updates here on our Facebook page, and I'm sure the discussion will continue on the CU message boards. Steve has earned the reputation of being one of the nice guys in the hobby, so I'll be the one taking the hard line position here. We at BBCE work extremely hard and do the best we can for our customers, and as stated before, making it first come, first served at the National is the only fair way to distribute the product. I mean even if we had multiples of a product, like 1986/87 Fleer Basketball as an example (an example only!), there are more buyers than what we'd have in stock. Begging Steve will not change a thing, and Rick, Mike, Pete, and myself will making a list of who's been naughty and nice."
Since the National is pretty much in BBCE's hometown this year, you probably should have expected this. An excerpt from BBCE's Facebook page this evening:
As many have guessed, we have been holding back some stuff for the National. Not just vintage wax, but vintage sets, tough regional issues, graded cards, autographed memorabilia, etc. What everyone doesn't know is we've been holding back a TON of stuff since January; so much that the "hold" room has overflowed into second room. Yes, vintage unopened has become extremely difficult to find lately, but we have enough put away to support several group rips!
I've been dying to post pics of all this cool stuff we've been getting and share the stories about how we find this stuff, but you can imagine all the problems that could cause. When collectors know we have something, yet won't sell it to them or put them at the top of the list, feelings get hurt and nobody wins. There are often a dozen buyers for something like a 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Box; when we get one in, who do we sell it to? It's frustrating because we can't/won't/don't play favorites, so the only way to ensure everyone has a fair shot is to be at our booth at the National, on Wednesday, when the show opens. We understand not everyone can make the National, but it's the one show we do every year, and we need to do a bit of "showing off." You still have time to make plans; we encourage everyone to try to make it to Chicago and be there first thing on Wednesday. I can't speak on behalf of the hundreds of dealers at the convention, but visiting the TWO booths we have this year will be well worth your time.
Starting next month, we'll start leaking out details about what we'll have at the National, complete with pictures. You'll see a partial list of what we're bringing in future ads in SMR, SCD, and all the Beckett Magazines. I'm confident that our inventory will make last year's booth look weak, and let's face it, our booth last year in Baltimore was awesome. We've stashed some products that Steve, Rick, and I have never seen before, which considering our years in the hobby, is quite impressive. Based on how much volume we do as a company, unlike many of the other dealers in the room, you know we'll be priced competitively to sell. Stop by early and often; we'll be buying from the minute the first dealers walk in on Tuesday until the last dealers leave on Sunday, and as soon as we buy it, we'll turn around and put it out for sale.
Please, please, please do not call/email/harass Steve with questions, requests, etc. regarding what we'll have at the National. We'll provide updates here on our Facebook page, and I'm sure the discussion will continue on the CU message boards. Steve has earned the reputation of being one of the nice guys in the hobby, so I'll be the one taking the hard line position here. We at BBCE work extremely hard and do the best we can for our customers, and as stated before, making it first come, first served at the National is the only fair way to distribute the product. I mean even if we had multiples of a product, like 1986/87 Fleer Basketball as an example (an example only!), there are more buyers than what we'd have in stock. Begging Steve will not change a thing, and Rick, Mike, Pete, and myself will making a list of who's been naughty and nice.
Thanks for your understanding, and hope everyone is getting psyched for the National! Between now and the show, I might only be home for 4-5 days, so we're going to keep on buying. The deals keep rolling in. Only 53 days to go...
If anyone ever wonders why I despise cheerleaders...investment touters of any sort whose basic purpose is to work people into a frenzy in an attempt to appear impartial, but really a salesman preying on people's emotions...this would be it. This goes for real estate agents, stock market bulls, those phonies with the British accents touting gold, and those hoping unsustainable price increases in sports cards will continue for infinity.
BBCE is outstanding. No doubt the trust they've built is an amazing business and personal relationship accomplishment. But I don't really understand how individuals posting here and jockeying very plentiful product(1981 Topps, really?) does anything good for the hobby.
If anyone ever wonders why I despise cheerleaders...investment touters of any sort whose basic purpose is to work people into a frenzy in an attempt to appear impartial, but really a salesman preying on people's emotions...this would be it. This goes for real estate agents, stock market bulls, those phonies with the British accents touting gold, and those hoping unsustainable price increases in sports cards will continue for infinity.
BBCE is outstanding. No doubt the trust they've built is an amazing business and personal relationship accomplishment. But I don't really understand how individuals posting here and jockeying very plentiful product(1981 Topps, really?) does anything good for the hobby. >>
Have you ever stood in front of their booth at a National?
I'm not going to argue their rationale of keeping product for the National but I don't really buy that that is the fairest way to make it available to as many people as they can. The way to do that would be to put it up auction style on ebay. Again, not judging them at all.
<< <i>I'm not going to argue their rationale of keeping product for the National but I don't really buy that that is the fairest way to make it available to as many people as they can. The way to do that would be to put it up auction style on ebay. Again, not judging them at all. >>
Why would they put their most prized product at risk of eBay's "Buyer Protection" and take a 10% or so hit on the price when they already have the proper avenues to sell it?
You can't compare a PSA or PSA/DNA card they sell on eBay to something like a 1975 Topps Mini Box or 1986/87 Fleer Basketball Wax box that is highly limited and well known throughout the hobby. They have been in business for quite a while, very successful and their business model suits them well.
Drool! I would love to go to national to see everything. The pictures they post of their booth is always awesome. As someone who can't go to National, I have no problem with what they are doing.
Just checked Vegas odds. The O/U for this thread 24 hours from now is 827. Like -325 or something for the over. Oh, and speaking of 827, that's roughly the number of tents that are going to be pitched when everyone reads the Day 6 update in a few hours. But as welcome a sight as that unopened rhetoric was, did it truly surpass the content from Day 5?
<< <i>Halfcentman & Dodgerfanjohn get it. Smarter than your average bears. >>
No, they don't. Just because BBCE has held back some really high end, older wax does not mean overall supply is not dwindling. Rising prices indicate that demand is greater than supply. Reed even stated above that stuff is getting harder to find. And a few years ago, Steve said one of the reasons he hired Reed was so that they could move into more modern wax which Reed had experience purchasing with D&A - yet another indicator that Steve saw the supply of older wax diminishing. Another sign is the fact that the availability of full cases has been non-existent over the past 2 or 3 years on most products.
And while I can give you signs and indicators that supply is diminishing at a fast pace, all you and other such skeptical posters can give is "I just know there are hundreds of cases still out there." Really?
a lot of folks have offered interesting and varies opinions over this, and many of us have a pretty good understanding of how these trends develop and flourish.
the excitement building up towards The National and presumed potential for sales of BBCE seems compelling enough.....a feeding frenzy unlike any we may have seen yet.
but what of the people who intend to negotiate with them for products they will carry in? this makes me even more curious.
it should be memorable and i've seen a few chaotic sports collecting moments over the years.
<< <i>Halfcentman & Dodgerfanjohn get it. Smarter than your average bears. >>
Steve offers a great service to his customers. I don't think most of us here are buying the 80's product because they think it is rare. I'd rather buy from Steve for a number of reasons than ebay. Heck he is cheaper lots of times. Then there is the resealers or those that sell wrappers, empty boxes, or gum. I won't ever buy from them. And some sellers on ebay I stay clear of now. They might offer good authenticated product but I won't buy from them.
And you can bet whatever Steve is holding onto for the National, most will sell those few days there. I wish I could go but I think it is a great business move by Steve. Those who have their nose out of whack because they think Steve should offer it to the masses right away or is building up fake hysteria are nuts. Whatever does not sell at the National will work its way out the door quickly once put on his website. With the group rips and those not making the National, the stuff will move fast. Whatever does not move is probably ok to Steve. I'm sure he does not mind keeping some stuff on his website so it is not bare like it has been. 70's stuff is looking sad!
Because their web site is not configured to sell in an auction format. Rest assured, ebay is giving them a break on fees. Setting up new software to allow auctions would be way to much $$. I wish they would update their site to include a next/previous page set of arrows so you don't have to scroll back up to get to the next page.
CURRENT PROJECTS IN WORK: To be honest, no direction, but... 1966-69 Topps EX+ 1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9 All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
Hey Steve how about this? The first day of the National would be a great time to setup a surprise group rip here on CU. No announcements or anything, just post the product as you see fit. Make it the biggest you have ever had here. Of course now it won't be such a big surprise, unless you really do it!
CURRENT PROJECTS IN WORK: To be honest, no direction, but... 1966-69 Topps EX+ 1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9 All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
I just chatted recently with a major unopened seller and he mentioned that he has a buyer that is willing to pay 600.00 for as many 1980 topps waxboxes as he can find, I don't know what the historic price of the wax from this year is, but I would not be surprised if 600.00 plus is the new floor.
<< <i>Because their web site is not configured to sell in an auction format. Rest assured, ebay is giving them a break on fees. Setting up new software to allow auctions would be way to much $$. I wish they would update their site to include a next/previous page set of arrows so you don't have to scroll back up to get to the next page. >>
I agree. But that must mean you are perusing that website often.......... I'm there more that i would admit to
Interested in 60's and 70's psa and raw star and hof cards
I just chatted recently with a major unopened seller and he mentioned that he has a buyer that is willing to pay 600.00 for as many 1980 topps waxboxes as he can find, I don't know what the historic price of the wax from this year is, but I would not be surprised if 600.00 plus is the new floor. >>
I just could not see the rationale behind $600 for a 1980 wax box. How would they move off the shelves at that price and what would the logic be behind buying them? The only premium card there is the Henderson. PSA 9s don't sell for $600, and pulling a 9 is far, far from guaranteed. The other HOFers might only bring money in PSA 10. I'd think there has to be some correlation between what could lie inside and the value/price of the box-- but at some of these hypothetical prices being discussed, I think that correlation is quickly evaporating.
If I hypothetically make that buy, what am I thinking I'm getting? By 1980, enough collectors were out there with the foresight to stash a case here and there away, so I just don't see the sheer rarity being a draw, as it would be with early 70s material. Maybe there's an angle I'm missing, but I don't see myself getting $600 of value from a 1980 wax box, either to rip or to hold as a special piece of unopened product.
As long as a collector is happy with their pieces, ultimately that is all that matters. But if we are talking for a moment strictly about the merits of 1980s unopened product in terms of appreciation or rarity, I just am having a hard time seeing it. I can get behind an early 1970s box, to keep sealed, but 1980? I get the age-old point about supply being fixed and rippers causing a decline-- but if hypothetical Buyer X is spending say 14,400 on 24 wax boxes of 1980 Topps, it's just my opinion, but I'd much rather make a bet on the holy trinity of PSA graded cards of Ruth, Mantle, or Jordan. For that same hypothetical load of 1980 Topps Wax 14,400 you could have a PSA 10 Jordan RC and a great card of either Ruth or Mantle. Or 14k could get one heck of a nice 52T Mick. There are only about 1000 of those Mantles graded by PSA, and the demand for them will always be massive. So at some point, if unopened does actually rise to very high price levels, the discerning collector has to begin to weigh dropping such money on unopened against his other alternatives.
I believe unopened is great fun and very cool to display in a collection, but at some of the future price points being bandied about I think it gets a bit crazy and risky relative to other options. It's true supply is fixed and declining, but the monster in the room is how much is out there, and the fact that demand for the hobby's "blue-chip" graded singles of legendary athletes will always be enormous relative to the demand for unopened. Tempering the fervor for unopened with some cautious consideration can't be a bad thing. But again this perspective does not apply if a hypothetical collector just loves the stuff and it's his thing. I'm speaking only from the perspective of someone who likes it, but also likes other stuff, too-- and at a high price point with a not unlimited budget, a collector has to weigh his options.
I just chatted recently with a major unopened seller and he mentioned that he has a buyer that is willing to pay 600.00 for as many 1980 topps waxboxes as he can find, I don't know what the historic price of the wax from this year is, but I would not be surprised if 600.00 plus is the new floor. >>
I just could not see the rationale behind $600 for a 1980 wax box. How would they move off the shelves at that price and what would the logic be behind buying them? The only premium card there is the Henderson. PSA 9s don't sell for $600, and pulling a 9 is far, far from guaranteed. The other HOFers might only bring money in PSA 10. I'd think there has to be some correlation between what could lie inside and the value/price of the box-- but at some of these hypothetical prices being discussed, I think that correlation is quickly evaporating.
If I hypothetically make that buy, what am I thinking I'm getting? By 1980, enough collectors were out there with the foresight to stash a case here and there away, so I just don't see the sheer rarity being a draw, as it would be with early 70s material. Maybe there's an angle I'm missing, but I don't see myself getting $600 of value from a 1980 wax box, either to rip or to hold as a special piece of unopened product.
As long as a collector is happy with their pieces, ultimately that is all that matters. But if we are talking for a moment strictly about the merits of 1980s unopened product in terms of appreciation or rarity, I just am having a hard time seeing it. I can get behind an early 1970s box, to keep sealed, but 1980? I get the age-old point about supply being fixed and rippers causing a decline-- but if hypothetical Buyer X is spending say 14,400 on 24 wax boxes of 1980 Topps, it's just my opinion, but I'd much rather make a bet on the holy trinity of PSA graded cards of Ruth, Mantle, or Jordan. For that same hypothetical load of 1980 Topps Wax 14,400 you could have a PSA 10 Jordan RC and a great card of either Ruth or Mantle. Or 14k could get one heck of a nice 52T Mick. There are only about 1000 of those Mantles graded by PSA, and the demand for them will always be massive. So at some point, if unopened does actually rise to very high price levels, the discerning collector has to begin to weigh dropping such money on unopened against his other alternatives.
I believe unopened is great fun and very cool to display in a collection, but at some of the future price points being bandied about I think it gets a bit crazy and risky relative to other options. It's true supply is fixed and declining, but the monster in the room is how much is out there, and the fact that demand for the hobby's "blue-chip" graded singles of legendary athletes will always be enormous relative to the demand for unopened. Tempering the fervor for unopened with some cautious consideration can't be a bad thing. But again this perspective does not apply if a hypothetical collector just loves the stuff and it's his thing. I'm speaking only from the perspective of someone who likes it, but also likes other stuff, too-- and at a high price point with a not unlimited budget, a collector has to weigh his options. >>
Im with you buddy I have been enquiring because I have NO 1980 on my shelf...the guy said he can find them and gets them in but a private buyer gets all of them. I am just gonna wait around and I am sure I'll nab a few boxes eventually but no way near what I could have got them for 5-7 years ago I am afraid.
<< <i>This speculation is cute. If you know the hobby you know there are hundreds of cases of this stuff still out there. But keep on back patting, lol >>
It's not speculation but fact.
Steve doesn't have much to sell on his website in the way of 70s/80s unopened material.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
<< <i>This speculation is cute. If you know the hobby you know there are hundreds of cases of this stuff still out there. But keep on back patting, lol >>
It's not speculation but fact.
Steve doesn't have much to sell on his website in the way of 70s/80s unopened material. >>
Ignore it, just a hand-grenade thrower who has added no thoughtful posts to this thread. As exciting as the BBCE at National sale is, I don't think they are backing a semi-truck to their booth to unload their product (although come to think of it, calculating the size of a case...). Wish I could be there please share pics!
Do you think the population report has anything to say about what is "left" out there? I mean, comparing 1978 to 1979, there are 119,000 graded cards from 1978, yet only 66,000 from 1979. Assuming that most of the 1978 cards have been graded at this point, this either means there are far fewer cards graded in 1979, or there are still another 60,000 cards that are potentially ungraded at this time (regardless of the grade). And in 1980, there are 69,000 cards graded. Yet, it would stand to reason that there are more 1979 than 1978, and more 1980 than 1979.
If the population of 1980 is doubled from 1979, then we should expect to see, in its finality, roughly 200,000 cards graded. If that is true, then there are still lots of unopened material out there amongst the raw cards. I am sure 1980 commons gets tossed in more frequency than earlier cards, so high end commons will be tougher to come by for this very reason. I am making any claims, I am just trying to come from another point of view to make heads or tails of it all. 1981 topps has a low population in comparison, even to 1982, with only 41,000 graded cards and so there are still lots of cards from that year that have gone ungraded. It may have its day in the sun at a future date.
If anyone ever wonders why I despise cheerleaders...investment touters of any sort whose basic purpose is to work people into a frenzy in an attempt to appear impartial, but really a salesman preying on people's emotions...this would be it. This goes for real estate agents, stock market bulls, those phonies with the British accents touting gold, and those hoping unsustainable price increases in sports cards will continue for infinity.
BBCE is outstanding. No doubt the trust they've built is an amazing business and personal relationship accomplishment. But I don't really understand how individuals posting here and jockeying very plentiful product(1981 Topps, really?) does anything good for the hobby. >>
Your caustic comments are more ignorant than they are irritating. My sense is that the group here are just collectors enjoying a fun conversation. Who in this group is trying to churn purchases and sales? Tim? Mike? any of the hoarders or collectors? If you read Steve's FB post more objectively two things should stand out to anyone who has a fair mind: (1) He fully acknowledges that things are drying up "Yes, vintage unopened has become extremely difficult to find lately, but we have enough put away to support several group rips!" Um, he has enough for a couple group rips? That is hardly a deluge. (2) "There are often a dozen buyers for something like a 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Box; when we get one in, who do we sell it to? It's frustrating because we can't/won't/don't play favorites, so the only way to ensure everyone has a fair shot is to be at our booth at the National"...what the hell does that tell you? Maybe there is some demand?
I dunno, what crawled up your arse, but I would appreciate more reasoned logic than veiled insults. It seemed that you were quite reasoned in many other forums.
It might have been said elsewhere here, and perhaps I've forgotten, but another interesting angle on the subject is this: just because BBCE is indeed drying up, with less product offered for sale, does not mean that extant supply is at all disappearing. There's a slippery logic step that can be made there and it's important not to fall into specious reasoning...
It is very possible that the vast majority of the dried-up BBCE supply has just merely moved locations, from Steve's warehouse to collector's shelves. If this is the case, it is still out there just as it was before, and it has not gotten any rarer simply because Steve shipped it to a collector-- especially at the current pricepoints for higher-end 1970s items, which deter ripping and make it an all but assuredly losing endeavor. If we can assume most savvy collectors are not ripping expensive boxes, then this supply is not rapidly dwindling from rabid rippers (though some may exist).
I also agree with those who have said BBCE may-- completely without malice, and with good business acumen-- like the perception that the material they sell is drying up. I am not at all suggesting some grand master scheme, such as that they are hoarding huge amounts of high end 70s material, but if they have say one case or a few boxes come in, why not hold it and see where the market goes, all the while creating pent-up demand prior to releasing it for sale? I would never fault a business for doing what's in its best interest, as long as it's legal, which that would be. So it may be important to avoid going from (A) BBCE is drying up to (B) this means unopened stuff is vanishing from the face of the earth and should therefore skyrocket in price. I think that is reasonable to consider.
Pent-up demand can be a hell of a thing in our hobby; it can cause huge spikes, followed by new price bars being set. I think it's therefore critical to try and determine what precisely is causing the pent up demand. Sometimes pent-up demand is because something is a true beast or special or an eye-appealing anomaly. Other times not. In those latter cases, I try to avoid getting swept up. For example, say a 1985 Topps Mattingly PSA 10 hasn't been offered on ebay in a year. Many collectors will want one. This pent up demand could cause the card to reach dizzying new heights relative to past sales. But is the card really worth that price based on its merits, or was it all just pent-up demand based on the fluke of one not having been listed in a while? Just more angles on the topic to consider is all.
I can see pent-up demand for a 1971 wax box very easily, and it being based on genuine toughness of the item. But for say 1986 Topps, not nearly as much; perceived drying up of this material I can see being due more to those holding it seeing where older unopened has gone, and hoping that 80s material goes the same route. Thus holding it is causing the pent up demand, as opposed to it being genuinely rare. In such a case then as 86 Topps, as a buyer/collector I will hold firm and not pay big for those boxes. Is it possible these are ripped by the case for years because they are so cheap and fun, and then supply really does shrink and price increases? Sure, possible. But is there really enough interest in pulling those cards from those packs and spending in grading them, be it for player sets, year sets, or personal collections? I don't see it for that kind of material.
<< <i>Do you think the population report has anything to say about what is "left" out there? I mean, comparing 1978 to 1979, there are 119,000 graded cards from 1978, yet only 66,000 from 1979. Assuming that most of the 1978 cards have been graded at this point, this either means there are far fewer cards graded in 1979, or there are still another 60,000 cards that are potentially ungraded at this time (regardless of the grade). And in 1980, there are 69,000 cards graded. Yet, it would stand to reason that there are more 1979 than 1978, and more 1980 than 1979.
If the population of 1980 is doubled from 1979, then we should expect to see, in its finality, roughly 200,000 cards graded. If that is true, then there are still lots of unopened material out there amongst the raw cards. I am sure 1980 commons gets tossed in more frequency than earlier cards, so high end commons will be tougher to come by for this very reason. I am making any claims, I am just trying to come from another point of view to make heads or tails of it all. 1981 topps has a low population in comparison, even to 1982, with only 41,000 graded cards and so there are still lots of cards from that year that have gone ungraded. It may have its day in the sun at a future date. >>
I'd imagine there are several other factors to consider with respect to the pop reports of total cards graded, so while it may be useful as an indicator, I would fall short of interpreting it as an if-then situation. Some sets have far more desirable cards than others, and are in turn collected more than others. So popularity is a big factor in total number of grading submissions. Also, some sets have such notoriously poor quality right out of the pack that the vast majority of them are never even sent in for grading; the 1975 minis are a prime example of this latter phenomenon.
For me, as an unopened collector, I define vintage unopened as "drying up" to correlate directly with said product's availability. A decade ago, it was quite easy to purchase and acquire unopened wax and cello boxes from the mid to late 70s, and at prices that were roughly half of what the same box would command today. Have all those boxes been relocated to collectors' shelves and storage rooms? Some of it, yes. But a lot of it has also been ripped, and there is also no question in my mind that supply has dwindled because people were buying boxes a decade ago and Steve was also able to restock on a regular basis, too. I have heard some suggest that mid to late 80s unopened is drying up, and that I would disagree with, as product is still plentiful, if not always from BBCE. But 70s unopened product has most certainly grown increasingly scarce, and with the prices being commanded right now in the market, we are still seeing only limited boxes for sale, and the vast majority of those are from Fritsch (who has been supplying AHs with boxes the last couple of years), and minis from Bob Beck who purchased all the 75 mini cello cases from Fritsch via REA. There simply aren't sealed cases of this stuff lying around with the possible exception of the Fritsch warehouse.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
The National Convention is coming. Everyone probably assumed we were holding stuff back for the show. Well we are. Unfortunately, not enough of it is unopened product! We have some we are holding back. I mean...it sure would look awfully funny if our showcases were bare of it! We are known for unopened and not having any would be pretty strange looking! Over the past few months I have made some monster purchases of vintage sets and singles. Our booth will have some amazing stuff in it vintage card wise. We will have sets of Goudeys (Yes, Goudeys), Playballs, Leafs, Bowmans, Topps, Fleers in both baseball and football. We will have rare regional sets: Glendale Meats, Mothers Cookies, Bell Brands, Remar Breads, Darigold Farms, Kahns baseball, etc. Some of these regional sets are beyond rare. In addition, we will have some sets that would be #1 on the PSA set registry, but I really have never put a set on the registry. I made a find of Kahns football from 1959 through 1964. I have gotten them all graded and this find alone consists of nearly 40% of all the 8's and 9's in Kahns football cards! We will have some freshly high graded Red Mans from all years, completely graded Kahns baseball sets, the highest graded 1960 Lake to Lake Braves cards (half the set is nearly impossible due to staple holes and hole punches from the company). So as far as sets and vintage cards go, we will have more stuff at this show than all the past Nationals I've done combined!
Now the unopened. Yes, it has gone nuts. We sold 24 boxes of 1980 Topps baseball vending in 5 hours. The 1981 Topps vending case took 24 hours. The 1984 rack case took a few minutes. We sold out of 1982/83 OPC hockey wax (23 boxes worth) this week. I've never seen the market like this. You guys are rabid buyers who cant seem to get enough! However, there is also a lot of new blood in the market. There are lots of new buyers who seem to buy anything and everything. Some of these guys are new. Some of these guys have always been here, but have now ramped it up. Actually, some of these guys are the big whales in graded cards, who have now fallen in love with unopened. I know where the big collections of unopened are. Most all these guys are under the radar. They don't read message boards. They don't go to shows. They don't really spend much time on the hobby. But they have been buying since the 70's. Surprisingly, most of them have never been sellers. In fact, they are all buyers still who want more!
All these new buyers and old buyers have contacted me. Basically, they have told me that they will buy anything/everything and not to put it on the website. They have said just save the time, effort and headaches. Just sell it to them. This puts me in a tough situation. If I don't put anything on the website, then nobody will ever get a shot at anything. If I do put it on the website, these guys still buy it and then ask me why I didn't just offer it to them? I guess this isn't a BAD situation to be in. I mean, this stuff could just be sitting on shelves and not selling at all. But it isn't. It's hotter than ever. I cant get enough, nor can I find enough. Our business would probably be in a world of trouble if we hadn't branched out to more graded cards, autographs, modern wax (1995 to present) etc. There just isn't enough vintage wax to support the company and all its employees!
So now we have the National Convention in 6-7 weeks. We will have unopened material. We do NOT have to have any type of Group Rip for it. The stuff is going to sell anyway, without any problems, without any extra work. HOWEVER, I would like to do one anyway, because you guys who participate are great! Believe me, I would like to be on your side of the table most of the time. So sometime in July I will let Mark Hooks know about a few products I have in mind and then Mark and you guys can figure out a way to do it so it can be picked up at the show or mailed out like usual. Maybe you guys who are going to the show can plan something to do there on the spot. Any ideas you come up with will be fine by me. Next, I guess when the doors open Wednesday to the public it will be first come, first served. There really isn't an easy way to do this. For your guys who cant make it to the National who feel like I am leaving you out, there is none to worry. Remember, we BUY as much at the National as we do anywhere else during the year! Most of the stuff we buy we put in the back to bring back to the office. Things will be put up on the website during the week immediately following the show. Last year, we did far more in sales during the month of August on our website than we did at the show. There will be plenty of stuff available after the show closes Sunday night.
Sometimes it's tough to figure out how exactly to distribute stuff that everyone wants. Believe me, if I have $100,000 worth of new fresh material for sale, I end up getting $100,000 for it. I don't need to play favorites, give special treatment to the guy with the biggest wallet, offer it to the guy who has spent the most over the past year, etc. In the end, I end up with the same result (the same total sales). However, I try to do it without upsetting anyone and getting as many customers as I can a piece of the pie. This isn't always easy, as you can hopefully understand.
Comments
<< <i>Got me a 85 Topps rack case today.
It will stay sealed
3 or 6?
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
answer is yes....but not to many people will tell you......
<< <i>Does anyone have a box of 75 minis or 76 Topps?
answer is yes....but not to many people will tell you...... >>
Not I, but I know of people who do.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>Could it be that BBCE is drying up because you guys are ripping the living daylights out of all of the old wax, the supply is going down since it cannot be replaced, and the price is increasing for a dwindling supply? >>
+1
I see someone paid attention in Economics class!
<< <i>Could it be that BBCE is drying up because you guys are ripping the living daylights out of all of the old wax, the supply is going down since it cannot be replaced, and the price is increasing for a dwindling supply? >>
+100
none for collectors, all for investors
ALL MY PSA SETS
Not that I am a wax conservationist - I'd rip it if I had it in my hot, little hands. Just think the game has changed.
Bosox1976
<< <i>Virgin 70's sets (and lots) have become the new "rip" for me. No suprise as to who you find, but the conditions are a trip.
Not that I am a wax conservationist - I'd rip it if I had it in my hot, little hands. Just think the game has changed. >>
Hey Mike, that is something I was doing too in order to not rip my unopened stuff. I figured if I want to see the cards, I could look at '70's lots instead of ripping my packs. So far, it's worked.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>personally, i think it would be unwise for Steve to tell us what he personally thinks, when it's pretty easy to tell what he's thinking and why. >>
totally agree with you itzagoner but he knows the answers more than anyone here does.
No point looking for what can't be found -- and when it is found the price doesn't
leave any meat on the bone.
DaveB in St.Louis
"The second deal in Long Beach turned up some lower grade BB sets, specifically 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, and 1967. In addition, I promised pics of this awesome deal in Long Beach, but Steve advised against it. That's too bad, because I picked up a couple killer vintage unopened items. As many have guessed, we have been holding back some stuff for the National. Not just vintage wax, but vintage sets, tough regional issues, graded cards, autographed memorabilia, etc. What everyone doesn't know is we've been holding back a TON of stuff since January; so much that the "hold" room has overflowed into second room. Yes, vintage unopened has become extremely difficult to find lately, but we have enough put away to support several group rips!
I've been dying to post pics of all this cool stuff we've been getting and share the stories about how we find this stuff, but you can imagine all the problems that could cause. When collectors know we have something, yet won't sell it to them or put them at the top of the list, feelings get hurt and nobody wins. There are often a dozen buyers for something like a 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Box; when we get one in, who do we sell it to? It's frustrating because we can't/won't/don't play favorites, so the only way to ensure everyone has a fair shot is to be at our booth at the National, on Wednesday, when the show opens. We understand not everyone can make the National, but it's the one show we do every year, and we need to do a bit of "showing off." You still have time to make plans; we encourage everyone to try to make it to Chicago and be there first thing on Wednesday. I can't speak on behalf of the hundreds of dealers at the convention, but visiting the TWO booths we have this year will be well worth your time.
Starting next month, we'll start leaking out details about what we'll have at the National, complete with pictures. You'll see a partial list of what we're bringing in future ads in SMR, SCD, and all the Beckett Magazines. I'm confident that our inventory will make last year's booth look weak, and let's face it, our booth last year in Baltimore was awesome. We've stashed some products that Steve, Rick, and I have never seen before, which considering our years in the hobby, is quite impressive. Based on how much volume we do as a company, unlike many of the other dealers in the room, you know we'll be priced competitively to sell. Stop by early and often; we'll be buying from the minute the first dealers walk in on Tuesday until the last dealers leave on Sunday, and as soon as we buy it, we'll turn around and put it out for sale.
Please, please, please do not call/email/harass Steve with questions, requests, etc. regarding what we'll have at the National. We'll provide updates here on our Facebook page, and I'm sure the discussion will continue on the CU message boards. Steve has earned the reputation of being one of the nice guys in the hobby, so I'll be the one taking the hard line position here. We at BBCE work extremely hard and do the best we can for our customers, and as stated before, making it first come, first served at the National is the only fair way to distribute the product. I mean even if we had multiples of a product, like 1986/87 Fleer Basketball as an example (an example only!), there are more buyers than what we'd have in stock. Begging Steve will not change a thing, and Rick, Mike, Pete, and myself will making a list of who's been naughty and nice."
As many have guessed, we have been holding back some stuff for the National. Not just vintage wax, but vintage sets, tough regional issues, graded cards, autographed memorabilia, etc. What everyone doesn't know is we've been holding back a TON of stuff since January; so much that the "hold" room has overflowed into second room. Yes, vintage unopened has become extremely difficult to find lately, but we have enough put away to support several group rips!
I've been dying to post pics of all this cool stuff we've been getting and share the stories about how we find this stuff, but you can imagine all the problems that could cause. When collectors know we have something, yet won't sell it to them or put them at the top of the list, feelings get hurt and nobody wins. There are often a dozen buyers for something like a 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Box; when we get one in, who do we sell it to? It's frustrating because we can't/won't/don't play favorites, so the only way to ensure everyone has a fair shot is to be at our booth at the National, on Wednesday, when the show opens. We understand not everyone can make the National, but it's the one show we do every year, and we need to do a bit of "showing off." You still have time to make plans; we encourage everyone to try to make it to Chicago and be there first thing on Wednesday. I can't speak on behalf of the hundreds of dealers at the convention, but visiting the TWO booths we have this year will be well worth your time.
Starting next month, we'll start leaking out details about what we'll have at the National, complete with pictures. You'll see a partial list of what we're bringing in future ads in SMR, SCD, and all the Beckett Magazines. I'm confident that our inventory will make last year's booth look weak, and let's face it, our booth last year in Baltimore was awesome. We've stashed some products that Steve, Rick, and I have never seen before, which considering our years in the hobby, is quite impressive. Based on how much volume we do as a company, unlike many of the other dealers in the room, you know we'll be priced competitively to sell. Stop by early and often; we'll be buying from the minute the first dealers walk in on Tuesday until the last dealers leave on Sunday, and as soon as we buy it, we'll turn around and put it out for sale.
Please, please, please do not call/email/harass Steve with questions, requests, etc. regarding what we'll have at the National. We'll provide updates here on our Facebook page, and I'm sure the discussion will continue on the CU message boards. Steve has earned the reputation of being one of the nice guys in the hobby, so I'll be the one taking the hard line position here. We at BBCE work extremely hard and do the best we can for our customers, and as stated before, making it first come, first served at the National is the only fair way to distribute the product. I mean even if we had multiples of a product, like 1986/87 Fleer Basketball as an example (an example only!), there are more buyers than what we'd have in stock. Begging Steve will not change a thing, and Rick, Mike, Pete, and myself will making a list of who's been naughty and nice.
Thanks for your understanding, and hope everyone is getting psyched for the National! Between now and the show, I might only be home for 4-5 days, so we're going to keep on buying. The deals keep rolling in. Only 53 days to go...
<< <i>HA great minds...
If anyone ever wonders why I despise cheerleaders...investment touters of any sort whose basic purpose is to work people into a frenzy in an attempt to appear impartial, but really a salesman preying on people's emotions...this would be it. This goes for real estate agents, stock market bulls, those phonies with the British accents touting gold, and those hoping unsustainable price increases in sports cards will continue for infinity.
BBCE is outstanding. No doubt the trust they've built is an amazing business and personal relationship accomplishment. But I don't really understand how individuals posting here and jockeying very plentiful product(1981 Topps, really?) does anything good for the hobby.
<< <i>I just read that FB posting too.
If anyone ever wonders why I despise cheerleaders...investment touters of any sort whose basic purpose is to work people into a frenzy in an attempt to appear impartial, but really a salesman preying on people's emotions...this would be it. This goes for real estate agents, stock market bulls, those phonies with the British accents touting gold, and those hoping unsustainable price increases in sports cards will continue for infinity.
BBCE is outstanding. No doubt the trust they've built is an amazing business and personal relationship accomplishment. But I don't really understand how individuals posting here and jockeying very plentiful product(1981 Topps, really?) does anything good for the hobby. >>
Have you ever stood in front of their booth at a National?
<< <i>I'm not going to argue their rationale of keeping product for the National but I don't really buy that that is the fairest way to make it available to as many people as they can. The way to do that would be to put it up auction style on ebay. Again, not judging them at all. >>
Why would they put their most prized product at risk of eBay's "Buyer Protection" and take a 10% or so hit on the price when they already have the proper avenues to sell it?
eBay Store
Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
eBay Store
Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
the question has been irrefutably answered.
<< <i>Halfcentman & Dodgerfanjohn get it. Smarter than your average bears. >>
No, they don't. Just because BBCE has held back some really high end, older wax does not mean overall supply is not dwindling. Rising prices indicate that demand is greater than supply. Reed even stated above that stuff is getting harder to find. And a few years ago, Steve said one of the reasons he hired Reed was so that they could move into more modern wax which Reed had experience purchasing with D&A - yet another indicator that Steve saw the supply of older wax diminishing. Another sign is the fact that the availability of full cases has been non-existent over the past 2 or 3 years on most products.
And while I can give you signs and indicators that supply is diminishing at a fast pace, all you and other such skeptical posters can give is "I just know there are hundreds of cases still out there." Really?
the excitement building up towards The National and presumed potential for sales of BBCE seems compelling enough.....a feeding frenzy unlike any we may have seen yet.
but what of the people who intend to negotiate with them for products they will carry in? this makes me even more curious.
it should be memorable and i've seen a few chaotic sports collecting moments over the years.
this will beat them all.
<< <i>Halfcentman & Dodgerfanjohn get it. Smarter than your average bears. >>
Steve offers a great service to his customers. I don't think most of us here are buying the 80's product because they think it is rare.
I'd rather buy from Steve for a number of reasons than ebay. Heck he is cheaper lots of times. Then there is the resealers or those
that sell wrappers, empty boxes, or gum. I won't ever buy from them. And some sellers on ebay I stay clear of now. They might offer
good authenticated product but I won't buy from them.
And you can bet whatever Steve is holding onto for the National, most will sell those few days there. I wish I could go but I think
it is a great business move by Steve. Those who have their nose out of whack because they think Steve should offer it to the masses
right away or is building up fake hysteria are nuts. Whatever does not sell at the National will work its way out the door quickly once
put on his website. With the group rips and those not making the National, the stuff will move fast. Whatever does not move is probably
ok to Steve. I'm sure he does not mind keeping some stuff on his website so it is not bare like it has been. 70's stuff is looking sad!
aconte
as if this wasnt enough reason to attend the national.
it's just a great place to go if you like cards. if you cant make it, that sucks for you, but dont rain on others parade that can go.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
To be honest, no direction, but...
1966-69 Topps EX+
1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9
All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
To be honest, no direction, but...
1966-69 Topps EX+
1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9
All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
<< <i>If legit... >>
I just chatted recently with a major unopened seller and he mentioned that he has a buyer that is willing to pay 600.00 for as many 1980 topps waxboxes as he can find, I don't know what the historic price of the wax from this year is, but I would not be surprised if 600.00 plus is the new floor.
<< <i>Because their web site is not configured to sell in an auction format. Rest assured, ebay is giving them a break on fees. Setting up new software to allow auctions would be way to much $$. I wish they would update their site to include a next/previous page set of arrows so you don't have to scroll back up to get to the next page. >>
I agree. But that must mean you are perusing that website often..........
<< <i>
<< <i>If legit... >>
I just chatted recently with a major unopened seller and he mentioned that he has a buyer that is willing to pay 600.00 for as many 1980 topps waxboxes as he can find, I don't know what the historic price of the wax from this year is, but I would not be surprised if 600.00 plus is the new floor. >>
I just could not see the rationale behind $600 for a 1980 wax box. How would they move off the shelves at that price and what would the logic be behind buying them? The only premium card there is the Henderson. PSA 9s don't sell for $600, and pulling a 9 is far, far from guaranteed. The other HOFers might only bring money in PSA 10. I'd think there has to be some correlation between what could lie inside and the value/price of the box-- but at some of these hypothetical prices being discussed, I think that correlation is quickly evaporating.
If I hypothetically make that buy, what am I thinking I'm getting? By 1980, enough collectors were out there with the foresight to stash a case here and there away, so I just don't see the sheer rarity being a draw, as it would be with early 70s material. Maybe there's an angle I'm missing, but I don't see myself getting $600 of value from a 1980 wax box, either to rip or to hold as a special piece of unopened product.
As long as a collector is happy with their pieces, ultimately that is all that matters. But if we are talking for a moment strictly about the merits of 1980s unopened product in terms of appreciation or rarity, I just am having a hard time seeing it. I can get behind an early 1970s box, to keep sealed, but 1980? I get the age-old point about supply being fixed and rippers causing a decline-- but if hypothetical Buyer X is spending say 14,400 on 24 wax boxes of 1980 Topps, it's just my opinion, but I'd much rather make a bet on the holy trinity of PSA graded cards of Ruth, Mantle, or Jordan. For that same hypothetical load of 1980 Topps Wax 14,400 you could have a PSA 10 Jordan RC and a great card of either Ruth or Mantle. Or 14k could get one heck of a nice 52T Mick. There are only about 1000 of those Mantles graded by PSA, and the demand for them will always be massive. So at some point, if unopened does actually rise to very high price levels, the discerning collector has to begin to weigh dropping such money on unopened against his other alternatives.
I believe unopened is great fun and very cool to display in a collection, but at some of the future price points being bandied about I think it gets a bit crazy and risky relative to other options. It's true supply is fixed and declining, but the monster in the room is how much is out there, and the fact that demand for the hobby's "blue-chip" graded singles of legendary athletes will always be enormous relative to the demand for unopened. Tempering the fervor for unopened with some cautious consideration can't be a bad thing. But again this perspective does not apply if a hypothetical collector just loves the stuff and it's his thing. I'm speaking only from the perspective of someone who likes it, but also likes other stuff, too-- and at a high price point with a not unlimited budget, a collector has to weigh his options.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>If legit... >>
I just chatted recently with a major unopened seller and he mentioned that he has a buyer that is willing to pay 600.00 for as many 1980 topps waxboxes as he can find, I don't know what the historic price of the wax from this year is, but I would not be surprised if 600.00 plus is the new floor. >>
I just could not see the rationale behind $600 for a 1980 wax box. How would they move off the shelves at that price and what would the logic be behind buying them? The only premium card there is the Henderson. PSA 9s don't sell for $600, and pulling a 9 is far, far from guaranteed. The other HOFers might only bring money in PSA 10. I'd think there has to be some correlation between what could lie inside and the value/price of the box-- but at some of these hypothetical prices being discussed, I think that correlation is quickly evaporating.
If I hypothetically make that buy, what am I thinking I'm getting? By 1980, enough collectors were out there with the foresight to stash a case here and there away, so I just don't see the sheer rarity being a draw, as it would be with early 70s material. Maybe there's an angle I'm missing, but I don't see myself getting $600 of value from a 1980 wax box, either to rip or to hold as a special piece of unopened product.
As long as a collector is happy with their pieces, ultimately that is all that matters. But if we are talking for a moment strictly about the merits of 1980s unopened product in terms of appreciation or rarity, I just am having a hard time seeing it. I can get behind an early 1970s box, to keep sealed, but 1980? I get the age-old point about supply being fixed and rippers causing a decline-- but if hypothetical Buyer X is spending say 14,400 on 24 wax boxes of 1980 Topps, it's just my opinion, but I'd much rather make a bet on the holy trinity of PSA graded cards of Ruth, Mantle, or Jordan. For that same hypothetical load of 1980 Topps Wax 14,400 you could have a PSA 10 Jordan RC and a great card of either Ruth or Mantle. Or 14k could get one heck of a nice 52T Mick. There are only about 1000 of those Mantles graded by PSA, and the demand for them will always be massive. So at some point, if unopened does actually rise to very high price levels, the discerning collector has to begin to weigh dropping such money on unopened against his other alternatives.
I believe unopened is great fun and very cool to display in a collection, but at some of the future price points being bandied about I think it gets a bit crazy and risky relative to other options. It's true supply is fixed and declining, but the monster in the room is how much is out there, and the fact that demand for the hobby's "blue-chip" graded singles of legendary athletes will always be enormous relative to the demand for unopened. Tempering the fervor for unopened with some cautious consideration can't be a bad thing. But again this perspective does not apply if a hypothetical collector just loves the stuff and it's his thing. I'm speaking only from the perspective of someone who likes it, but also likes other stuff, too-- and at a high price point with a not unlimited budget, a collector has to weigh his options. >>
Im with you buddy
<< <i>This speculation is cute. If you know the hobby you know there are hundreds of cases of this stuff still out there. But keep on back patting, lol >>
It's not speculation but fact.
Steve doesn't have much to sell on his website in the way of 70s/80s unopened material.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>
<< <i>This speculation is cute. If you know the hobby you know there are hundreds of cases of this stuff still out there. But keep on back patting, lol >>
It's not speculation but fact.
Steve doesn't have much to sell on his website in the way of 70s/80s unopened material. >>
Ignore it, just a hand-grenade thrower who has added no thoughtful posts to this thread. As exciting as the BBCE at National sale is, I don't think they are backing a semi-truck to their booth to unload their product (although come to think of it, calculating the size of a case...). Wish I could be there please share pics!
If the population of 1980 is doubled from 1979, then we should expect to see, in its finality, roughly 200,000 cards graded. If that is true, then there are still lots of unopened material out there amongst the raw cards. I am sure 1980 commons gets tossed in more frequency than earlier cards, so high end commons will be tougher to come by for this very reason. I am making any claims, I am just trying to come from another point of view to make heads or tails of it all. 1981 topps has a low population in comparison, even to 1982, with only 41,000 graded cards and so there are still lots of cards from that year that have gone ungraded. It may have its day in the sun at a future date.
<< <i>I just read that FB posting too.
If anyone ever wonders why I despise cheerleaders...investment touters of any sort whose basic purpose is to work people into a frenzy in an attempt to appear impartial, but really a salesman preying on people's emotions...this would be it. This goes for real estate agents, stock market bulls, those phonies with the British accents touting gold, and those hoping unsustainable price increases in sports cards will continue for infinity.
BBCE is outstanding. No doubt the trust they've built is an amazing business and personal relationship accomplishment. But I don't really understand how individuals posting here and jockeying very plentiful product(1981 Topps, really?) does anything good for the hobby. >>
Your caustic comments are more ignorant than they are irritating. My sense is that the group here are just collectors enjoying a fun conversation. Who in this group is trying to churn purchases and sales? Tim? Mike? any of the hoarders or collectors?
If you read Steve's FB post more objectively two things should stand out to anyone who has a fair mind:
(1) He fully acknowledges that things are drying up "Yes, vintage unopened has become extremely difficult to find lately, but we have enough put away to support several group rips!" Um, he has enough for a couple group rips? That is hardly a deluge.
(2) "There are often a dozen buyers for something like a 1975 Topps Mini Baseball Wax Box; when we get one in, who do we sell it to? It's frustrating because we can't/won't/don't play favorites, so the only way to ensure everyone has a fair shot is to be at our booth at the National"...what the hell does that tell you? Maybe there is some demand?
I dunno, what crawled up your arse, but I would appreciate more reasoned logic than veiled insults. It seemed that you were quite reasoned in many other forums.
It is very possible that the vast majority of the dried-up BBCE supply has just merely moved locations, from Steve's warehouse to collector's shelves. If this is the case, it is still out there just as it was before, and it has not gotten any rarer simply because Steve shipped it to a collector-- especially at the current pricepoints for higher-end 1970s items, which deter ripping and make it an all but assuredly losing endeavor. If we can assume most savvy collectors are not ripping expensive boxes, then this supply is not rapidly dwindling from rabid rippers (though some may exist).
I also agree with those who have said BBCE may-- completely without malice, and with good business acumen-- like the perception that the material they sell is drying up. I am not at all suggesting some grand master scheme, such as that they are hoarding huge amounts of high end 70s material, but if they have say one case or a few boxes come in, why not hold it and see where the market goes, all the while creating pent-up demand prior to releasing it for sale? I would never fault a business for doing what's in its best interest, as long as it's legal, which that would be. So it may be important to avoid going from (A) BBCE is drying up to (B) this means unopened stuff is vanishing from the face of the earth and should therefore skyrocket in price. I think that is reasonable to consider.
Pent-up demand can be a hell of a thing in our hobby; it can cause huge spikes, followed by new price bars being set. I think it's therefore critical to try and determine what precisely is causing the pent up demand. Sometimes pent-up demand is because something is a true beast or special or an eye-appealing anomaly. Other times not. In those latter cases, I try to avoid getting swept up. For example, say a 1985 Topps Mattingly PSA 10 hasn't been offered on ebay in a year. Many collectors will want one. This pent up demand could cause the card to reach dizzying new heights relative to past sales. But is the card really worth that price based on its merits, or was it all just pent-up demand based on the fluke of one not having been listed in a while? Just more angles on the topic to consider is all.
I can see pent-up demand for a 1971 wax box very easily, and it being based on genuine toughness of the item. But for say 1986 Topps, not nearly as much; perceived drying up of this material I can see being due more to those holding it seeing where older unopened has gone, and hoping that 80s material goes the same route. Thus holding it is causing the pent up demand, as opposed to it being genuinely rare. In such a case then as 86 Topps, as a buyer/collector I will hold firm and not pay big for those boxes. Is it possible these are ripped by the case for years because they are so cheap and fun, and then supply really does shrink and price increases? Sure, possible. But is there really enough interest in pulling those cards from those packs and spending in grading them, be it for player sets, year sets, or personal collections? I don't see it for that kind of material.
<< <i>Do you think the population report has anything to say about what is "left" out there? I mean, comparing 1978 to 1979, there are 119,000 graded cards from 1978, yet only 66,000 from 1979. Assuming that most of the 1978 cards have been graded at this point, this either means there are far fewer cards graded in 1979, or there are still another 60,000 cards that are potentially ungraded at this time (regardless of the grade). And in 1980, there are 69,000 cards graded. Yet, it would stand to reason that there are more 1979 than 1978, and more 1980 than 1979.
If the population of 1980 is doubled from 1979, then we should expect to see, in its finality, roughly 200,000 cards graded. If that is true, then there are still lots of unopened material out there amongst the raw cards. I am sure 1980 commons gets tossed in more frequency than earlier cards, so high end commons will be tougher to come by for this very reason. I am making any claims, I am just trying to come from another point of view to make heads or tails of it all. 1981 topps has a low population in comparison, even to 1982, with only 41,000 graded cards and so there are still lots of cards from that year that have gone ungraded. It may have its day in the sun at a future date. >>
I'd imagine there are several other factors to consider with respect to the pop reports of total cards graded, so while it may be useful as an indicator, I would fall short of interpreting it as an if-then situation. Some sets have far more desirable cards than others, and are in turn collected more than others. So popularity is a big factor in total number of grading submissions. Also, some sets have such notoriously poor quality right out of the pack that the vast majority of them are never even sent in for grading; the 1975 minis are a prime example of this latter phenomenon.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
The National Convention is coming. Everyone probably assumed we were holding stuff back for the show. Well we are. Unfortunately, not enough of it is unopened product! We have some we are holding back. I mean...it sure would look awfully funny if our showcases were bare of it! We are known for unopened and not having any would be pretty strange looking! Over the past few months I have made some monster purchases of vintage sets and singles. Our booth will have some amazing stuff in it vintage card wise. We will have sets of Goudeys (Yes, Goudeys), Playballs, Leafs, Bowmans, Topps, Fleers in both baseball and football. We will have rare regional sets: Glendale Meats, Mothers Cookies, Bell Brands, Remar Breads, Darigold Farms, Kahns baseball, etc. Some of these regional sets are beyond rare. In addition, we will have some sets that would be #1 on the PSA set registry, but I really have never put a set on the registry. I made a find of Kahns football from 1959 through 1964. I have gotten them all graded and this find alone consists of nearly 40% of all the 8's and 9's in Kahns football cards! We will have some freshly high graded Red Mans from all years, completely graded Kahns baseball sets, the highest graded 1960 Lake to Lake Braves cards (half the set is nearly impossible due to staple holes and hole punches from the company). So as far as sets and vintage cards go, we will have more stuff at this show than all the past Nationals I've done combined!
Now the unopened. Yes, it has gone nuts. We sold 24 boxes of 1980 Topps baseball vending in 5 hours. The 1981 Topps vending case took 24 hours. The 1984 rack case took a few minutes. We sold out of 1982/83 OPC hockey wax (23 boxes worth) this week. I've never seen the market like this. You guys are rabid buyers who cant seem to get enough! However, there is also a lot of new blood in the market. There are lots of new buyers who seem to buy anything and everything. Some of these guys are new. Some of these guys have always been here, but have now ramped it up. Actually, some of these guys are the big whales in graded cards, who have now fallen in love with unopened. I know where the big collections of unopened are. Most all these guys are under the radar. They don't read message boards. They don't go to shows. They don't really spend much time on the hobby. But they have been buying since the 70's. Surprisingly, most of them have never been sellers. In fact, they are all buyers still who want more!
All these new buyers and old buyers have contacted me. Basically, they have told me that they will buy anything/everything and not to put it on the website. They have said just save the time, effort and headaches. Just sell it to them. This puts me in a tough situation. If I don't put anything on the website, then nobody will ever get a shot at anything. If I do put it on the website, these guys still buy it and then ask me why I didn't just offer it to them? I guess this isn't a BAD situation to be in. I mean, this stuff could just be sitting on shelves and not selling at all. But it isn't. It's hotter than ever. I cant get enough, nor can I find enough. Our business would probably be in a world of trouble if we hadn't branched out to more graded cards, autographs, modern wax (1995 to present) etc. There just isn't enough vintage wax to support the company and all its employees!
So now we have the National Convention in 6-7 weeks. We will have unopened material. We do NOT have to have any type of Group Rip for it. The stuff is going to sell anyway, without any problems, without any extra work. HOWEVER, I would like to do one anyway, because you guys who participate are great! Believe me, I would like to be on your side of the table most of the time. So sometime in July I will let Mark Hooks know about a few products I have in mind and then Mark and you guys can figure out a way to do it so it can be picked up at the show or mailed out like usual. Maybe you guys who are going to the show can plan something to do there on the spot. Any ideas you come up with will be fine by me. Next, I guess when the doors open Wednesday to the public it will be first come, first served. There really isn't an easy way to do this. For your guys who cant make it to the National who feel like I am leaving you out, there is none to worry. Remember, we BUY as much at the National as we do anywhere else during the year! Most of the stuff we buy we put in the back to bring back to the office. Things will be put up on the website during the week immediately following the show. Last year, we did far more in sales during the month of August on our website than we did at the show. There will be plenty of stuff available after the show closes Sunday night.
Sometimes it's tough to figure out how exactly to distribute stuff that everyone wants. Believe me, if I have $100,000 worth of new fresh material for sale, I end up getting $100,000 for it. I don't need to play favorites, give special treatment to the guy with the biggest wallet, offer it to the guy who has spent the most over the past year, etc. In the end, I end up with the same result (the same total sales). However, I try to do it without upsetting anyone and getting as many customers as I can a piece of the pie. This isn't always easy, as you can hopefully understand.
Thanks! Steve