probably should cut back on the exposure to your video games. Sorta like radiation. lol
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There's always a bst transaction that goes south when somebody's too cheap to do things right. There's also a big difference between fear & due diligence.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
My opinion is jaded by my comprehension. For every wnner on a leveraged $2,500 position, there's also a loser. I feel fortunate that I can make money by providing a skill and expertise instead of playing against someone else's inexperience in a market.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It is not just Buford T. Pusser in the southern states to keep an eye on re: civil forfeiture.
ALL 50 states. ANY sizeable amount of cash is at risk. You had better have full documentation that the cash is part of the banking system and even then it is "at risk".
Courses are taught in the police fraternity on how to accomplish it.
<< <i>There are all kinds of derivatives out there. Any investment that is not physically backed by an underlying asset can be considered a derivative. Derivatives don't threaten the economy. Reckless derivative players threaten the economy, especially if they are the custodians of our banking system, just as in 2008. It is not derivatives that are the threat - it is who is allowed to wager large amounts of other people's money and who must cover the losses. The unregulation of derivatives will again prove to be our economic downfall.
<< <i> Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over". >>
Then why was it necessary to recently put US taxpayers (via FDIC funds) on the hook for a bank's potential derivative losses? Here's Why.
". . . deposits are now “just part of commercial banks’ capital structure.” That means they can be “bailed in” or confiscated to save the megabanks from derivative bets gone wrong."
The other problem is that large derivative contracts also involve non-bank hedge funds who don't care if their win ruins a bank. There's a winning and a losing side to all derivative bets. The winner expects and demands to get paid - just like he did circa. 2008.
Who's gonna cover what the FDIC and depositor accounts will be unable to cover?
>>
Another fear mongering article. First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? Second your bank deposits will not be confiscated. There are consequences for actions. No American alive would settle for the consequences therefore there will be no action.
Perhaps we should show a graph of the earth next to all the potential earths orbiting trillions of stars and conclude we will be conquered by aliens.
<< <i>My opinion is jaded by my comprehension. For every wnner on a leveraged $2,500 position, there's also a loser. I feel fortunate that I can make money by providing a skill and expertise instead of playing against someone else's inexperience in a market. >>
Why would my example not be of skill and expertise? If you consult for someone are you not taking advantage of their inexperience? Are you not taking money from them because they know less than you?
<< <i>However, there would not be $300 trillion in losses, because that would mean ALL the banks fail. Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over". Banks have failed since the first bank. Big deal. There wont be a catastrophic collapse of the global banking system. >>
The system doesn't need $300 TRILL in losses to implode it, just some fraction of that. I'm sure Lehman had all their derivatives valued at 100% the year before they went bust. The fact was that they ended up with 9% when it was all netted out and sold off. In 2008 all the MBS and CDS derivatives didn't blow up....."only" 50-100% of the MBS ($2-5 TRILL) and 40-50% of the CDS ($20-$30 TRILL). As I recall, LTCM was in that same 30-50% range or higher. Based on these 4 data points it would seem that a 30% failure rate is a starting point. So 30% of $300 TRILL = $90 TRILL. That could leave a mark (to market). Armstrong sees a financial system big bang coming in the next 5 years with sovereign bond and big bank failures leading the way. The system was not allowed to properly reset and reduce debt in the 2006-2009 crisis. It hasn't been adverted....just delayed. And while those big bangs are ripping up their derivative's contracts....J6P will be ripping up his auto, credit card, student and home loans in jubilation. One big rippin' party.
One insider's view of capital markets.
A second problem, of course, concerns derivatives. The 2008 financial crisis did not trigger widespread counterparty risk. But it could have. The banks, many of the large banks and many of the large US investment banks hold stupendous quantities of derivatives.
The nominal value of these derivatives is in the trillions of dollars. The banks argue, of course, that they have agency positions, that they have offsetting long and short positions and that the real value of the positions relative to the notional value of positions (the total amount of assets in play through a derivative contract) is really small. That explanation doesn’t hold water if there’s a counterparty crisis. If one side or the other doesn’t pay, the banks are liable.
If I’m going to be concerned about money center bank solvency, it really revolves around a couple of issues.
One is the quality of assets they have on their balance sheets. According to Basel III (a set of global banking standards established in 2011), and I’m paraphrasing, if a money center bank makes a loan to a private party or a private counterparty, they need to have reserves in place to be well-capitalized. You need about a 7% equity slice on your balance sheet.
But if a bank buys a sovereign credit (a government credit), and they intend to hold that credit to maturity, they don’t have to mark the credit to market and they don’t have to reserve against it. So the bank balance sheets are becoming swollen with assets that their regulators say are no-risk assets – i.e., sovereign credits.
People following this discussion need to decide for themselves whether they regard some of these sovereign credits, particularly the longer-dated sovereign credits, as being ‘no risk.’ I myself have some concerns with that.
A second issue, of course, is the fact that very large money center banks in effect don’t have any owners. The employees who are making the credit decisions are for the most part not large shareholders in the bank and their stake in the outcome has to do with their bonus. The idea of making a bonus during the quarter irrespective of the outcome five years or six years later is commonplace in large financial services institutions. Compensation to the individual is not derived from the health of the institution, but rather from the cash that employee generates during the quarter.
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up. >>
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there.
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up. >>
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there. >>
At least try living in reality.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We make our own reality, each and every day. Some people I guess make it their reality to drive around with a bunch of cash and gold, and expect different sort of risks that folks who travel around with cash and gold have always faced throughout gold's 5000+ year history of being worth taking from you? Banknotes take many forms, too, and yes some go bad.
The Dollar will outlive all of us, I'll wager any amount on that.
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up. >>
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there. >>
At least try living in reality. >>
Reality is the world didnt end in 2008. Reality is asset prices of all types are higher today. Reality is I (an American) can travel freely. Reality is we are all 7 years older than in 2008. Reality is there are opportunities everyday. Reality is some of us are scared. Reality is some of us arent scared.
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up. >>
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there. >>
At least try living in reality. >>
Reality is the world didnt end in 2008. Reality is asset prices of all types are higher today. Reality is I (an American) can travel freely. Reality is we are all 7 years older than in 2008. Reality is there are opportunities everyday. Reality is some of us are scared. Reality is some of us arent scared. >>
enjoy it while you can. I am. Prepared and scared are not the same thing.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money..... >>
In the real world, lots of people lost their lives, livelihoods, homes, pensions, life savings, etc. due to the banks blowing up the financial system in 2008. Lots of J6P's tossed the remains of their stock portfolio's to the wind in 2008/2009 and haven't been back since. It wasn't without serious consequences. While I can understand how professional traders love this type of environment it hasn't done a whole lot for middle and lower America. If cohodk isn't losing all his money....then by inference no one else is.
<< <i>Reality is the world didnt end in 2008. Reality is asset prices of all types are higher today. Reality is I (an American) can travel freely. Reality is we are all 7 years older than in 2008. Reality is there are opportunities everyday. Reality is some of us are scared. Reality is some of us arent scared. >>
If you aren't scared you're either prepared or you're not paying attention.
<< <i>The Dollar will outlive all of us, I'll wager any amount on that. >>
Why, because the USD is better than every currency that's ever come before it in the history of the world? Because the guys running Fed Reserve are smarter than any central bankers before them in the history of the world?
<< <i>Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money..... >>
In the real world, lots of people lost their lives, livelihoods, homes, pensions, life savings, etc. due to the banks blowing up the financial system in 2008. Lots of J6P's tossed the remains of their stock portfolio's to the wind in 2008/2009 and haven't been back since. It wasn't without serious consequences. While I can understand how professional traders love this type of environment it hasn't done a whole lot for middle and lower America. If cohodk isn't losing all his money....then by inference no one else is. >>
If Roadrunner lives in fear...then by inference everyone else should be as well. Or maybe if cohodk isnt losing all his money its because he doesnt subscribe to fear mongering, manipulation and conspiracy theory.
LMFAO!!! Only way people lost is if they listened to this board and sold all their stocks in 2009 and bought PMs all the way up. Contained within this board is a plethora of fear that has resulted in bad decisions.
In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple.
If I knew the end was near I certainly wouldnt live in fear. Whats the point of that?
<< <i>Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money..... >>
In the real world, lots of people lost their lives, livelihoods, homes, pensions, life savings, etc. due to the banks blowing up the financial system in 2008. Lots of J6P's tossed the remains of their stock portfolio's to the wind in 2008/2009 and haven't been back since. It wasn't without serious consequences. While I can understand how professional traders love this type of environment it hasn't done a whole lot for middle and lower America. If cohodk isn't losing all his money....then by inference no one else is. >>
If Roadrunner lives in fear...then by inference everyone else should be as well. Or maybe if cohodk isnt losing all his money its because he doesnt subscribe to fear mongering, manipulation and conspiracy theory.
LMFAO!!! Only way people lost is if they listened to this board and sold all their stocks in 2009 and bought PMs all the way up. Contained within this board is a plethora of fear that has resulted in bad decisions.
In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple.
If I knew the end was near I certainly wouldnt live in fear. Whats the point of that? >>
Thinking one is in the 1% does not make one part of the 1%. Your world will come crumbling down just like everyone else's that suffers in an economic crisis. It just hasn't reached you yet. It will.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That's quite a leap. Cohodk is now the judge as to who on the forum lives in fear or is "doing it right."
If Roadrunner lives in fear...then by inference everyone else should be as well. Or maybe if cohodk isnt losing all his money its because he doesnt subscribe to fear mongering, manipulation and conspiracy theory.
LMFAO!!! Only way people lost is if they listened to this board and sold all their stocks in 2009 and bought PMs all the way up. Contained within this board is a plethora of fear that has resulted in bad decisions.
In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple.
If I knew the end was near I certainly wouldnt live in fear. Whats the point of that?
I did have considerable concern in the way the system was going by 1997. When I learned about the derivative's mess in 2002 I started doing something about it....buying PMs. You seem to forget that this PMs forum came about after the 2004-2009 gold thread had run over 10,000 posts. There was lots of talk around here in 2004-2006 about buying PMs. And we bought PMs...early. Turned out to be good buys. One of the best decisions I ever made. In 2010 I certainly didn't want more PMs though like anyone I'd buy something to flip. I already had my PM fill from much lower levels. In 2010 PMs were still in the $1100-$1300 range, still a good buy considering $1900 was still on the horizon. I do remember Cohodk's chart analysis around 2010 about a 2 yr bearish rising wedge in gold that would likely send prices a lot lower when it broke down. Thing is, it broke out higher ....and never looked back until rising 40-50%. Not everything follows chart probabilities all the time. 2010 was the exact time not to be fearful of gold and silver...since most everyone was still thinking about the 2008 lows. Stocks were hardly a great buy in 2010 as they got crushed into 2011.
I know it was difficult for Cohodk & Co. to see gold end the year higher every year for 13 consecutive years. After around year 7-9 we started getting the same mantra from the fiat boyz, "it can't keep going on like this." But, it did. Dec 31st must have been a day Cohodk feared every year for years. Sometimes the old "rules" just don't work. And relying on "what everyone wants or doesn't want" certainly wouldn't have been much help in most years. Every investor wanted stocks in 2012, 2013, 2014, now 2015. I certainly wouldn't have gone against that trend in 2014, and probably not in 2015 either. One doesn't have to be fearful of the world's financial system reset that is coming at us in the next 5 years. One can plan for nasty scenarios without being fearful....but you still have to live being called a fear mongerer or chicken little.....lol. The gold "bugs" got it right going into the 2006-2009 financial crisis. Unfortunately, they will be right once again on the "big bang" coming at us by January 2020. Contained within this board right now is a plethora of what could possibly go wrong 5 years into a recovery with stocks soaring to all time highs? If you have to ask............
How can you guys go on and on about "everyone"? It just doesn't make any sense, there is no time when "everyone" wants the same thing, the whole society is based on people buying and selling, for every transaction there is a buyer and a seller, if "everyone" wanted gold then no one would ever sell any, and the price would be infinity, and if no one wanted it, you couldn't give it away, you'd have to pay people to haul it away from you. And, this being a PM forum, I'm pretty sure we're all kind of glad when gold goes up in value. I'm also glad when stocks and real estate go up. But I'm also happy when those things go down, too, because I want to buy more of them as time goes on, and if they never went down again after going up (which is to say, "more" or "less" people or more specifically, more or less Capital) seeks them, then how am I going to be able to buy low and go long?
<< <i>In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple. >>
a bad buy really? If you bought gold Feb 1 2010 at $1334 you could have sold it for $1923 later that year for a paltry gain of 44%. But even if you bought Jan 1 and sold Dec 31 you still made 10.4%. I do not call a 10% profit in 1 year a bad buy.
I buy life, home, and auto insurance. Does that make me fearful? Then call me chicken little.
<< <i>In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple. >>
a bad buy really? If you bought gold Feb 1 2010 at $1334 you could have sold it for $1923 later that year for a paltry gain of 44%. But even if you bought Jan 1 and sold Dec 31 you still made 10.4%. I do not call a 10% profit in 1 year a bad buy.
I buy life, home, and auto insurance. Does that make me fearful? Then call me chicken little. >>
If, if, if .... What if you didn't sell. Nor only are you down but all those investors around you who bought different assets are way ahead of you.
If.....lol. Didn't someone just comment about reality?
<< <i>In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple. >>
a bad buy really? If you bought gold Feb 1 2010 at $1334 you could have sold it for $1923 later that year for a paltry gain of 44%. But even if you bought Jan 1 and sold Dec 31 you still made 10.4%. I do not call a 10% profit in 1 year a bad buy.
I buy life, home, and auto insurance. Does that make me fearful? Then call me chicken little. >>
Your mortgage company forces you to buy home Insurance. Your state and finance company forces you to buy auto insurance. PMs are not Insurance.
Your world will come crumbling down just like everyone else's that suffers in an economic crisis. It just hasn't reached you yet. It will
Gotta be prepared.
You seem to forget
So Roadrunner is judge of what cohodk remembers?
Stocks were hardly a great buy in 2010 as they got crushed into 2011.
Yet if I said gold was a hardly a great buy in 2007 as it got crushed in 2008, I would be given 10 lashings with a wet noodle.
This s--- cracks me up. Nothing but fear and rhetoric. Blah blah blah.
Funny how people think I am an equities bull and a PM bear when I havent made any bullish calls on the stock market in at least a year and I've posted pictures of recent PM purchases. I just like to call out stupid, illogical and unreasonable crap that some of you present as fact.
You can go ahead and live in fear of what might happen, or is gonna happen "by 2020". If thats what makes you happy who am I to argue. Good luck.
BTW---you might want to resurrect that 10,000 post thread. You'll see that I got negative on stocks in March 2008 and, unfortunately for me, actually bought into some of the doomsayers nonsense.
I do remember Cohodk's chart analysis around 2010 about a 2 yr bearish rising wedge in gold that would likely send prices a lot lower when it broke down
Care to reproduce this "evidence"?
I did write that I thought gold had hit its "high for some time". And about 6 months later gold was still at that price. So by your logic I was spot on. Right?
Guess what? Gold lost a lot of its value in the early 1980s. Stocks lost a lot of value in 2001. Gold and stocks lost a lot of value in 2008. You know history so you should know at least a little about the probably future. So what are you(s) so afraid of? One should never be afraid of the known.
Just seek relative value and forget the bulsheet about derivatives, conspiracies and manipulations. You will have a lot more time for whats really important in life and a secure financial future.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There is no doubt that the U.S. is in the strangest financial condition ever recorded in human history. There is no possible way that this country should still be standing. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. The underlying belly of our stock markets and commodity markets are an absolute mess with constant manipulation the norm of each day. Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn.
<< <i>There is no doubt that the U.S. is in the strangest financial condition ever recorded in human history. There is no possible way that this country should still be standing. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. The underlying belly of our stock markets and commodity markets are an absolute mess with constant manipulation the norm of each day. Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
I've been reading the above scenarios from our in house "doom & gloomers" for about 5 years now. Realistically speaking, what are the odds of that "final straw braking the camels back?"
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>There is no doubt that the U.S. is in the strangest financial condition ever recorded in human history. There is no possible way that this country should still be standing. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. The underlying belly of our stock markets and commodity markets are an absolute mess with constant manipulation the norm of each day. Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
I've been reading the above scenarios from our in house "doom & gloomers" for about 5 years now. Realistically speaking, what are the odds of that "final straw braking the camels back?" >>
I do recall in 2005 when the housing boom was in full swing. Along with the hordes saying, "it's different this time" there were also the doom & gloomers saying "this isn't sustainable, it's going to collapse." Now that it's all in the books we see that it wasn't "different this time" but we also see that housing hung on a lot longer than a lot of people expected. A correction is coming despite the eternal optimists like Cohodk who think "it's different this time."
<< <i>There is no doubt that the U.S. is in the strangest financial condition ever recorded in human history. There is no possible way that this country should still be standing. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. The underlying belly of our stock markets and commodity markets are an absolute mess with constant manipulation the norm of each day. Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
I've been reading the above scenarios from our in house "doom & gloomers" for about 5 years now. Realistically speaking, what are the odds of that "final straw braking the camels back?" >>
I do recall in 2005 when the housing boom was in full swing. Along with the hordes saying, "it's different this time" there were also the doom & gloomers saying "this isn't sustainable, it's going to collapse." Now that it's all in the books we see that it wasn't "different this time" but we also see that housing hung on a lot longer than a lot of people expected. A correction is coming despite the eternal optimists like Cohodk who think "it's different this time." >>
Actually cohodk was very concerned about the housing market in 2006/2007. His words are written right here in this very board.
For the record, cohodk NEVER thinks "this time is different".
Some of you are very good at hearing only what you want to.
The relevance, of course, is that Stockman spent the past 25 years betting billions on macroeconomic trends that rarely panned out. Yeah, a long track record of being wrong doesn’t necessarily disqualify Stockman from a career in punditry. But at the very least somebody ought to mention Stockman’s past before asking him about the future.
<< <i>Actually cohodk was very concerned about the housing market in 2006/2007. His words are written right here in this very board. >>
My comments were not directed at you with regard to this topic.
<< <i>For the record, cohodk NEVER thinks "this time is different".
Some of you are very good at hearing only what you want to. >>
Actually, through your comments you have indicated that you do. As has been discussed thoroughly, the US has unprecedented debt levels and a deficit that is accelerating. The US is "printing" money faster than it ever has before. The federal reserve realistically cannot raise rates because the US simply cannot and never will be able to afford it the interest payments. No country has ever been this indebted and had their currency survive. No currency has ever survived longer than the USD has. Yet you and others consistently say under no uncertain terms that the dollar will survive almost anything - including a blow-up in the derivatives markets. What you are in fact saying is that it WILL be different this time because unlike all of the other countries and currencies that have been in this situation and tried to print their way out of it, the US will indeed be able to pull it off. Yes, you believe this time WILL be different because we're the US after all, and it can't happen here (and there is no reason to worry or even prepare for such an advent).
So do I have it right or do you care to clarify your position?
<< <i>"No currency has ever survived longer than the USD has"
ever heard of the pound? >>
I overlooked that one. But of all of the hundreds of fiat currencies that have ever existed the survival rate is abysmal. But we all know the USD will survive because "it's different this time."
Edited to add: It's worth noting that both the pound and the USD are worth only a very small fraction of their original value. So just because they still technically exist it is fairly meaningless because you can plot the value over time and see where things are clearly headed.
<< <i>.. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. ...
How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
The statement above is so false that it is not even funny. Plenty of other countries have had much more dire levels of debt, with far weaker economies, far fewer assets. The most recent major power is Japan, which is about 10 to 15 years ahead of the U.S. in terms of deficits, debts and structural problems. More frightening for the Japanese is that the population is both aging and declining, and their military expenditures might be about to sky rocket due to China's new imperialism.
Looking back at history, just about every major power ex-England took on much more debt during any of the old wars or recent wars. For example, Napolean's France lost in part due to military set backs, but also because France had to pay double or triple the interest rate as compared to England for war debt. During a long war, those debt levels at high interest rates became crippling and they could not match England gun for gun. That's just one off the top of my head example. The French economy eventually collapsed, as do many war torn countries after they lose the big one. Even if they win, it isn't so pretty a picture.
Again, the big one is coming, but it isn't likely to be mainly caused by financials. A major war, major famine, major plague, revolution tend to be the big catalysts. Major powers don't fall from their own weight. Yes, internal corruption can be a factor, but to topple a major economy, a big push tends to be required. (Those that want to cite the fall of the Roman Empire, from peak to fall was 500 years or 20 generations, so it isn't one to be buying gold for.) Again, net worth, will tend to be the least of a families concerns when the body count is in the tens of millions--and that is what it tends to take to topple a major economy
The more serious concern is the date for World War III. One count has 2019 as a likely time frame. Ten years after the Great Depression, World War II started. Ten years after the Great Recession takes us to 2018/2019. Do you think most people will be thinking mostly about their finances when the big one comes? There are eerie parallels, though not exact. Jews are fleeing en masse from France and many other European countries. Extremists have taken power in Greece, and may gain traction in other Euro zone countries, if Greece gets a sweetheart renegotiation. Russia is a near bankrupt power with a major military. Some are saying Greece will turn to Russia if they are kicked out of the Euro zone. Germany is playing relatively nice with the other Euro zone countries for now. However, if the Germans are forced to pay for most all of Europe's bills, it is unlikely they just sit there and pay. Take Germany out of the Euro, and that sets a lot of wheels in motion. The kind of events that often have led to war in the past.
Has the period leading up to the 2008 election been forgotten so soon?
Statements were made by politicians of a certain political party that initiated the lack of confidence steamroller.
Fuld ran out of liquidity and Lewis and the Fed declined to hold his hand. Lewis had already made the deal for Merrill & wouldn't return Fulds calls. The Fed shut the window. Lehman & Bear just started the dominos.
Lehman and BearStearns could not project liquidity, power & confidence.
The USA can still project power. We are still barely liquid. Confidence? Not so much.
If we go down, the world goes down even more. Not everybody can live in New Zealand.
Save ten percent and diversify your unencumbered assets.
No amount of taxes can solve the very real ills plaguing our system — our on- and off-balance-sheet debts exceed 500% of GDP (542%). Greece created a massive problem for Europe at a debt-to-GDP level of 170% or so. Japan is the poster-child of overblown debt, yet it’s at 226% — about half of America’s true level.
Things are getting hot and heavy in the GOLD AND SILVER, ECONOMIC NEWS, COINS, 2015 thread tonight. I'm getting tired just reading it. Lots of thoughts and opinions to ponder and digest.
Again, the big one is coming, but it isn't likely to be mainly caused by financials....
The empires of the past 600 years were built on sound currencies...and passed on when those currencies became unsound. There's no real blueprint for how long the world's financial systems can survive on pure fiat currencies. We've only had 44 years of experience so far. What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency? Let's say in the next 5-10 yrs the G20/IMF vote for a new world currency that's based on IMF SDR's. And those SDR's are based on a basket of currencies/commodities? Instead of being 100% of the world's reserve monetary unit, the dollar is changed to 30-40% of the weighting? Wouldn't that have major consequences for Treasuries, US economic and financial markets, US trade, standards of living?
One theoretical possibility to an IMF SDR: USD 35% weight, other world currencies 45%, gold/oil/other commodities 20%.
history shows that financials will cause the big one
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>No amount of taxes can solve the very real ills plaguing our system — our on- and off-balance-sheet debts exceed 500% of GDP (542%). Greece created a massive problem for Europe at a debt-to-GDP level of 170% or so. Japan is the poster-child of overblown debt, yet it’s at 226% — about half of America’s true level. >>
First, how do you know Japans "true" level of debt? Or Greece's? Second, are you adding in "entitlements" to the USA's level to arrive at 542%? If so, are you adding in the increase in demographics, increased productivity and increased GDP over the next 30 years? GDP is up 325% over the last 30 years. In 2045, GDP will most likely be over $60 trillion.
The USA does not not have more relative debt than other "1st tier" countries, but it does have much more capital, in many terms, including human capital, intellectual capital, commodity capital, financial capital.
No one is saying "this time is different", but rather that no time is the same. Thats a HUGE difference that must be understood, which leads to the exaggerations you present of my comments. I believe I have been very straight forward, logical, rational and consistent with my comments of the years and feel no need to "clarify". Clarity of thought can be improved when one rids themselves of manipulation and conspiracy theories, extraneous non-factual information and emotionally charged discourse. Just sayin' .
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency? >>
It pretty much already has or is already well under way. Most countries formerly did business in USD but now have established trade agreements in their own currencies. China and Russia have been agressive about this and OPEC nations have been very accommodating to doing business in their customer's own currencies, or Euros & Yuan.
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency?
It would be a blessing. >>
Like it was to Great Britain.
The lengths the US goes to to protect it should give you a clue.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency? >>
It pretty much already has or is already well under way. Most countries formerly did business in USD but now have established trade agreements in their own currencies. China and Russia have been agressive about this and OPEC nations have been very accommodating to doing business in their customer's own currencies, or Euros & Yuan. >>
There is always a lot of talk of the "petrodollar", but few seem to realize that oil is going the way of the dinosaur--pun intended. The greatest industry on the planet is technology and the USA is #1, by magnitudes of order. Iran and Russia and China can trade all the oil they want in whatever currency they want and it will not make one bit of difference to the USA in any way, shape or fashion.
100 years ago oil was the "future". Today it is the "past". Move forward or be left behind.
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency?
It would be a blessing. >>
Seems to me that the US got the "blessing" by being able to export most of its inflation overseas for the better part of 70 years. Will that inflation coming back to US shores be a blessing? I don't know, but having to bring back a large % of the USD's and Treasuries being held overseas doesn't seem like a blessing. Not having the world's reserve currency also means scaling down the money washing (ie banking) by some of the biggest banks. It's not going to be so easy to sell otc interest rate swaps to foreign govts (ie Greece, Italy, etc.). Great Britain "suffered" by not being able to grow its economy and standard of living to record heights on the backs of the world. The US got that job in 1944. The UK went from a world power to an also ran - they rank behind France in GDP.
Comments
When the legend becomes fact, print the legend...
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
ALL 50 states. ANY sizeable amount of cash is at risk. You had better have full documentation that the cash is part of the banking system and even then it is "at risk".
Courses are taught in the police fraternity on how to accomplish it.
<< <i>There are all kinds of derivatives out there. Any investment that is not physically backed by an underlying asset can be considered a derivative. Derivatives don't threaten the economy. Reckless derivative players threaten the economy, especially if they are the custodians of our banking system, just as in 2008. It is not derivatives that are the threat - it is who is allowed to wager large amounts of other people's money and who must cover the losses. The unregulation of derivatives will again prove to be our economic downfall.
<< <i> Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over". >>
Then why was it necessary to recently put US taxpayers (via FDIC funds) on the hook for a bank's potential derivative losses? Here's Why.
". . . deposits are now “just part of commercial banks’ capital structure.” That means they can be “bailed in” or confiscated to save the megabanks from derivative bets gone wrong."
The other problem is that large derivative contracts also involve non-bank hedge funds who don't care if their win ruins a bank. There's a winning and a losing side to all derivative bets. The winner expects and demands to get paid - just like he did circa. 2008.
Who's gonna cover what the FDIC and depositor accounts will be unable to cover?
Another fear mongering article. First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? Second your bank deposits will not be confiscated. There are consequences for actions. No American alive would settle for the consequences therefore there will be no action.
Perhaps we should show a graph of the earth next to all the potential earths orbiting trillions of stars and conclude we will be conquered by aliens.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>My opinion is jaded by my comprehension. For every wnner on a leveraged $2,500 position, there's also a loser. I feel fortunate that I can make money by providing a skill and expertise instead of playing against someone else's inexperience in a market. >>
Why would my example not be of skill and expertise? If you consult for someone are you not taking advantage of their inexperience? Are you not taking money from them because they know less than you?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>However, there would not be $300 trillion in losses, because that would mean ALL the banks fail. Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over". Banks have failed since the first bank. Big deal. There wont be a catastrophic collapse of the global banking system. >>
The system doesn't need $300 TRILL in losses to implode it, just some fraction of that. I'm sure Lehman had all their derivatives valued at 100% the year before they went bust. The fact was that they ended up with 9% when it was all netted out and sold off. In 2008 all the MBS and CDS derivatives didn't blow up....."only" 50-100% of the MBS ($2-5 TRILL) and 40-50% of the CDS ($20-$30 TRILL). As I recall, LTCM was in that same 30-50% range or higher. Based on these 4 data points it would seem that a 30% failure rate is a starting point. So 30% of $300 TRILL = $90 TRILL. That could leave a mark (to market). Armstrong sees a financial system big bang coming in the next 5 years with sovereign bond and big bank failures leading the way. The system was not allowed to properly reset and reduce debt in the 2006-2009 crisis. It hasn't been adverted....just delayed. And while those big bangs are ripping up their derivative's contracts....J6P will be ripping up his auto, credit card, student and home loans in jubilation. One big rippin' party.
One insider's view of capital markets.
A second problem, of course, concerns derivatives. The 2008 financial crisis did not trigger widespread counterparty risk. But it could have. The banks, many of the large banks and many of the large US investment banks hold stupendous quantities of derivatives.
The nominal value of these derivatives is in the trillions of dollars. The banks argue, of course, that they have agency positions, that they have offsetting long and short positions and that the real value of the positions relative to the notional value of positions (the total amount of assets in play through a derivative contract) is really small. That explanation doesn’t hold water if there’s a counterparty crisis. If one side or the other doesn’t pay, the banks are liable.
If I’m going to be concerned about money center bank solvency, it really revolves around a couple of issues.
One is the quality of assets they have on their balance sheets. According to Basel III (a set of global banking standards established in 2011), and I’m paraphrasing, if a money center bank makes a loan to a private party or a private counterparty, they need to have reserves in place to be well-capitalized. You need about a 7% equity slice on your balance sheet.
But if a bank buys a sovereign credit (a government credit), and they intend to hold that credit to maturity, they don’t have to mark the credit to market and they don’t have to reserve against it. So the bank balance sheets are becoming swollen with assets that their regulators say are no-risk assets – i.e., sovereign credits.
People following this discussion need to decide for themselves whether they regard some of these sovereign credits, particularly the longer-dated sovereign credits, as being ‘no risk.’ I myself have some concerns with that.
A second issue, of course, is the fact that very large money center banks in effect don’t have any owners. The employees who are making the credit decisions are for the most part not large shareholders in the bank and their stake in the outcome has to do with their bonus. The idea of making a bonus during the quarter irrespective of the outcome five years or six years later is commonplace in large financial services institutions. Compensation to the individual is not derived from the health of the institution, but rather from the cash that employee generates during the quarter.
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up.
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up.
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there. >>
At least try living in reality.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We make our own reality, each and every day. Some people I guess make it their reality to drive around with a bunch of cash and gold, and expect different sort of risks that folks who travel around with cash and gold have always faced throughout gold's 5000+ year history of being worth taking from you? Banknotes take many forms, too, and yes some go bad.
The Dollar will outlive all of us, I'll wager any amount on that.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up.
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there. >>
At least try living in reality. >>
Reality is the world didnt end in 2008. Reality is asset prices of all types are higher today. Reality is I (an American) can travel freely. Reality is we are all 7 years older than in 2008. Reality is there are opportunities everyday. Reality is some of us are scared. Reality is some of us arent scared.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> First if there is a $300 trillion derivative blowup there will be no winner who demand payment. Get it? >>
I believe you don't get it. In your world the 2008 Credit Default Swap derivative blowup had no consequences.
In your world if the dollar became worthless there would be no loser - we all would just tear them up.
Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money.
Your world is a nightmare. Glad I dont live there. >>
At least try living in reality. >>
Reality is the world didnt end in 2008. Reality is asset prices of all types are higher today. Reality is I (an American) can travel freely. Reality is we are all 7 years older than in 2008. Reality is there are opportunities everyday. Reality is some of us are scared. Reality is some of us arent scared. >>
enjoy it while you can. I am. Prepared and scared are not the same thing.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money..... >>
In the real world, lots of people lost their lives, livelihoods, homes, pensions, life savings, etc. due to the banks blowing up the financial system in 2008. Lots of J6P's tossed the remains of their stock portfolio's to the wind in 2008/2009 and haven't been back since. It wasn't without serious consequences. While I can understand how professional traders love this type of environment it hasn't done a whole lot for middle and lower America. If cohodk isn't losing all his money....then by inference no one else is.
<< <i>Reality is the world didnt end in 2008. Reality is asset prices of all types are higher today. Reality is I (an American) can travel freely. Reality is we are all 7 years older than in 2008. Reality is there are opportunities everyday. Reality is some of us are scared. Reality is some of us arent scared. >>
If you aren't scared you're either prepared or you're not paying attention.
<< <i>The Dollar will outlive all of us, I'll wager any amount on that. >>
Why, because the USD is better than every currency that's ever come before it in the history of the world? Because the guys running Fed Reserve are smarter than any central bankers before them in the history of the world?
<< <i>
<< <i>Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money..... >>
In the real world, lots of people lost their lives, livelihoods, homes, pensions, life savings, etc. due to the banks blowing up the financial system in 2008. Lots of J6P's tossed the remains of their stock portfolio's to the wind in 2008/2009 and haven't been back since. It wasn't without serious consequences. While I can understand how professional traders love this type of environment it hasn't done a whole lot for middle and lower America. If cohodk isn't losing all his money....then by inference no one else is. >>
If Roadrunner lives in fear...then by inference everyone else should be as well. Or maybe if cohodk isnt losing all his money its because he doesnt subscribe to fear mongering, manipulation and conspiracy theory.
LMFAO!!! Only way people lost is if they listened to this board and sold all their stocks in 2009 and bought PMs all the way up. Contained within this board is a plethora of fear that has resulted in bad decisions.
In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple.
If I knew the end was near I certainly wouldnt live in fear. Whats the point of that?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Yeah, in 2008 we all died. We all lost all our money. Same thing happened in 1931. We all died and lost all our money. Happened in 1907 also, and 1893 and 1873. We keep dying and losing all our money....funny is that here we all are. Still alive and making money..... >>
In the real world, lots of people lost their lives, livelihoods, homes, pensions, life savings, etc. due to the banks blowing up the financial system in 2008. Lots of J6P's tossed the remains of their stock portfolio's to the wind in 2008/2009 and haven't been back since. It wasn't without serious consequences. While I can understand how professional traders love this type of environment it hasn't done a whole lot for middle and lower America. If cohodk isn't losing all his money....then by inference no one else is. >>
If Roadrunner lives in fear...then by inference everyone else should be as well. Or maybe if cohodk isnt losing all his money its because he doesnt subscribe to fear mongering, manipulation and conspiracy theory.
LMFAO!!! Only way people lost is if they listened to this board and sold all their stocks in 2009 and bought PMs all the way up. Contained within this board is a plethora of fear that has resulted in bad decisions.
In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple.
If I knew the end was near I certainly wouldnt live in fear. Whats the point of that? >>
Thinking one is in the 1% does not make one part of the 1%. Your world will come crumbling down just like everyone else's that suffers in an economic crisis. It just hasn't reached you yet. It will.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If Roadrunner lives in fear...then by inference everyone else should be as well. Or maybe if cohodk isnt losing all his money its because he doesnt subscribe to fear mongering, manipulation and conspiracy theory.
LMFAO!!! Only way people lost is if they listened to this board and sold all their stocks in 2009 and bought PMs all the way up. Contained within this board is a plethora of fear that has resulted in bad decisions.
In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple.
If I knew the end was near I certainly wouldnt live in fear. Whats the point of that?
I did have considerable concern in the way the system was going by 1997. When I learned about the derivative's mess in 2002 I started doing something about it....buying PMs. You seem to forget that this PMs forum came about after the 2004-2009 gold thread had run over 10,000 posts. There was lots of talk around here in 2004-2006 about buying PMs. And we bought PMs...early. Turned out to be good buys. One of the best decisions I ever made. In 2010 I certainly didn't want more PMs though like anyone I'd buy something to flip. I already had my PM fill from much lower levels. In 2010 PMs were still in the $1100-$1300 range, still a good buy considering $1900 was still on the horizon. I do remember Cohodk's chart analysis around 2010 about a 2 yr bearish rising wedge in gold that would likely send prices a lot lower when it broke down. Thing is, it broke out higher ....and never looked back until rising 40-50%. Not everything follows chart probabilities all the time. 2010 was the exact time not to be fearful of gold and silver...since most everyone was still thinking about the 2008 lows. Stocks were hardly a great buy in 2010 as they got crushed into 2011.
I know it was difficult for Cohodk & Co. to see gold end the year higher every year for 13 consecutive years. After around year 7-9 we started getting the same mantra from the fiat boyz, "it can't keep going on like this." But, it did. Dec 31st must have been a day Cohodk feared every year for years. Sometimes the old "rules" just don't work. And relying on "what everyone wants or doesn't want" certainly wouldn't have been much help in most years. Every investor wanted stocks in 2012, 2013, 2014, now 2015. I certainly wouldn't have gone against that trend in 2014, and probably not in 2015 either. One doesn't have to be fearful of the world's financial system reset that is coming at us in the next 5 years. One can plan for nasty scenarios without being fearful....but you still have to live being called a fear mongerer or chicken little.....lol. The gold "bugs" got it right going into the 2006-2009 financial crisis. Unfortunately, they will be right once again on the "big bang" coming at us by January 2020. Contained within this board right now is a plethora of what could possibly go wrong 5 years into a recovery with stocks soaring to all time highs? If you have to ask............
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple. >>
a bad buy really? If you bought gold Feb 1 2010 at $1334 you could have sold it for $1923 later that year for a paltry gain of 44%.
But even if you bought Jan 1 and sold Dec 31 you still made 10.4%.
I do not call a 10% profit in 1 year a bad buy.
I buy life, home, and auto insurance. Does that make me fearful? Then call me chicken little.
<< <i>
<< <i>In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple. >>
a bad buy really? If you bought gold Feb 1 2010 at $1334 you could have sold it for $1923 later that year for a paltry gain of 44%.
But even if you bought Jan 1 and sold Dec 31 you still made 10.4%.
I do not call a 10% profit in 1 year a bad buy.
I buy life, home, and auto insurance. Does that make me fearful? Then call me chicken little. >>
If, if, if .... What if you didn't sell. Nor only are you down but all those investors around you who bought different assets are way ahead of you.
If.....lol. Didn't someone just comment about reality?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Lol
So much assumption.
Boo!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>In 2010 no one wanted real estate or stocks. Turned out to be a good buy. In 2010, everyone wanted PMs. Turned out to be a bad buy. In 2015, what does everyone want, or not want? Yeah, it really is that simple. >>
a bad buy really? If you bought gold Feb 1 2010 at $1334 you could have sold it for $1923 later that year for a paltry gain of 44%.
But even if you bought Jan 1 and sold Dec 31 you still made 10.4%.
I do not call a 10% profit in 1 year a bad buy.
I buy life, home, and auto insurance. Does that make me fearful? Then call me chicken little. >>
Your mortgage company forces you to buy home Insurance. Your state and finance company forces you to buy auto insurance. PMs are not Insurance.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gotta be prepared.
You seem to forget
So Roadrunner is judge of what cohodk remembers?
Stocks were hardly a great buy in 2010 as they got crushed into 2011.
Yet if I said gold was a hardly a great buy in 2007 as it got crushed in 2008, I would be given 10 lashings with a wet noodle.
This s--- cracks me up. Nothing but fear and rhetoric. Blah blah blah.
Funny how people think I am an equities bull and a PM bear when I havent made any bullish calls on the stock market in at least a year and I've posted pictures of recent PM purchases. I just like to call out stupid, illogical and unreasonable crap that some of you present as fact.
You can go ahead and live in fear of what might happen, or is gonna happen "by 2020". If thats what makes you happy who am I to argue. Good luck.
BTW---you might want to resurrect that 10,000 post thread. You'll see that I got negative on stocks in March 2008 and, unfortunately for me, actually bought into some of the doomsayers nonsense.
Anybody got some bad economic news to report?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Care to reproduce this "evidence"?
I did write that I thought gold had hit its "high for some time". And about 6 months later gold was still at that price. So by your logic I was spot on. Right?
Guess what? Gold lost a lot of its value in the early 1980s. Stocks lost a lot of value in 2001. Gold and stocks lost a lot of value in 2008. You know history so you should know at least a little about the probably future. So what are you(s) so afraid of? One should never be afraid of the known.
Just seek relative value and forget the bulsheet about derivatives, conspiracies and manipulations. You will have a lot more time for whats really important in life and a secure financial future.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Anybody got some bad economic news to report? >>
It's still pretty much all bad. take your pick.
Global economy in "crack-up" phase
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn.
<< <i>There is no doubt that the U.S. is in the strangest financial condition ever recorded in human history. There is no possible way that this country should still be standing. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. The underlying belly of our stock markets and commodity markets are an absolute mess with constant manipulation the norm of each day.
Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
I've been reading the above scenarios from our in house "doom & gloomers" for about 5 years now. Realistically speaking, what are the odds of that "final straw braking the camels back?"
<< <i>
<< <i>There is no doubt that the U.S. is in the strangest financial condition ever recorded in human history. There is no possible way that this country should still be standing. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. The underlying belly of our stock markets and commodity markets are an absolute mess with constant manipulation the norm of each day.
Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
I've been reading the above scenarios from our in house "doom & gloomers" for about 5 years now. Realistically speaking, what are the odds of that "final straw braking the camels back?" >>
I do recall in 2005 when the housing boom was in full swing. Along with the hordes saying, "it's different this time" there were also the doom & gloomers saying "this isn't sustainable, it's going to collapse." Now that it's all in the books we see that it wasn't "different this time" but we also see that housing hung on a lot longer than a lot of people expected. A correction is coming despite the eternal optimists like Cohodk who think "it's different this time."
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>There is no doubt that the U.S. is in the strangest financial condition ever recorded in human history. There is no possible way that this country should still be standing. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. The underlying belly of our stock markets and commodity markets are an absolute mess with constant manipulation the norm of each day.
Speculators make billions moving oil and gold up and down, and we certainly have had enough talk on the derivatives market.
All of that said the game seems to go on and on. One of my very paranoid friends ask me last year why we had not had a total collapse, and the only thing I could come up with was that the majority of U.S. assets as well as those of the rest of the world were all in PAPER. This paper world we live in just refuses to reset. It just continues on. How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
I've been reading the above scenarios from our in house "doom & gloomers" for about 5 years now. Realistically speaking, what are the odds of that "final straw braking the camels back?" >>
I do recall in 2005 when the housing boom was in full swing. Along with the hordes saying, "it's different this time" there were also the doom & gloomers saying "this isn't sustainable, it's going to collapse." Now that it's all in the books we see that it wasn't "different this time" but we also see that housing hung on a lot longer than a lot of people expected. A correction is coming despite the eternal optimists like Cohodk who think "it's different this time." >>
Actually cohodk was very concerned about the housing market in 2006/2007. His words are written right here in this very board.
For the record, cohodk NEVER thinks "this time is different".
Some of you are very good at hearing only what you want to.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Anybody got some bad economic news to report? >>
It's still pretty much all bad. take your pick.
Global economy in "crack-up" phase >>
So just some "opinions" Ho-hum.
He does seem to be on the other side of the fence as you in regards to China.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Anybody got some bad economic news to report? >>
It's still pretty much all bad. take your pick.
Global economy in "crack-up" phase >>
David Stockman.... From this Fortune article... http://fortune.com/2011/01/10/david-stockman-is-back/
The last paragraph pretty much sums things up...
The relevance, of course, is that Stockman spent the past 25 years betting billions on macroeconomic trends that rarely panned out. Yeah, a long track record of being wrong doesn’t necessarily disqualify Stockman from a career in punditry. But at the very least somebody ought to mention Stockman’s past before asking him about the future.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Actually cohodk was very concerned about the housing market in 2006/2007. His words are written right here in this very board. >>
My comments were not directed at you with regard to this topic.
<< <i>For the record, cohodk NEVER thinks "this time is different".
Some of you are very good at hearing only what you want to. >>
Actually, through your comments you have indicated that you do.
As has been discussed thoroughly, the US has unprecedented debt levels and a deficit that is accelerating. The US is "printing" money faster than it ever has before. The federal reserve realistically cannot raise rates because the US simply cannot and never will be able to afford it the interest payments. No country has ever been this indebted and had their currency survive. No currency has ever survived longer than the USD has. Yet you and others consistently say under no uncertain terms that the dollar will survive almost anything - including a blow-up in the derivatives markets.
What you are in fact saying is that it WILL be different this time because unlike all of the other countries and currencies that have been in this situation and tried to print their way out of it, the US will indeed be able to pull it off. Yes, you believe this time WILL be different because we're the US after all, and it can't happen here (and there is no reason to worry or even prepare for such an advent).
So do I have it right or do you care to clarify your position?
ever heard of the pound?
<< <i>"No currency has ever survived longer than the USD has"
ever heard of the pound? >>
I overlooked that one. But of all of the hundreds of fiat currencies that have ever existed the survival rate is abysmal. But we all know the USD will survive because "it's different this time."
Edited to add: It's worth noting that both the pound and the USD are worth only a very small fraction of their original value. So just because they still technically exist it is fairly meaningless because you can plot the value over time and see where things are clearly headed.
<< <i>.. Never in human history has a country had so much debt, with no way to resolve that debt. ...
How long this can last,until that one straw finally breaks the camels back,no one knows but eventually the paper pyramids of the world must burn. >>
The statement above is so false that it is not even funny. Plenty of other countries have had much more dire levels of debt, with far weaker economies, far fewer assets. The most recent major power is Japan, which is about 10 to 15 years ahead of the U.S. in terms of deficits, debts and structural problems. More frightening for the Japanese is that the population is both aging and declining, and their military expenditures might be about to sky rocket due to China's new imperialism.
Looking back at history, just about every major power ex-England took on much more debt during any of the old wars or recent wars. For example, Napolean's France lost in part due to military set backs, but also because France had to pay double or triple the interest rate as compared to England for war debt. During a long war, those debt levels at high interest rates became crippling and they could not match England gun for gun. That's just one off the top of my head example. The French economy eventually collapsed, as do many war torn countries after they lose the big one. Even if they win, it isn't so pretty a picture.
Again, the big one is coming, but it isn't likely to be mainly caused by financials. A major war, major famine, major plague, revolution tend to be the big catalysts. Major powers don't fall from their own weight. Yes, internal corruption can be a factor, but to topple a major economy, a big push tends to be required. (Those that want to cite the fall of the Roman Empire, from peak to fall was 500 years or 20 generations, so it isn't one to be buying gold for.) Again, net worth, will tend to be the least of a families concerns when the body count is in the tens of millions--and that is what it tends to take to topple a major economy
The more serious concern is the date for World War III. One count has 2019 as a likely time frame. Ten years after the Great Depression, World War II started. Ten years after the Great Recession takes us to 2018/2019. Do you think most people will be thinking mostly about their finances when the big one comes? There are eerie parallels, though not exact. Jews are fleeing en masse from France and many other European countries. Extremists have taken power in Greece, and may gain traction in other Euro zone countries, if Greece gets a sweetheart renegotiation. Russia is a near bankrupt power with a major military. Some are saying Greece will turn to Russia if they are kicked out of the Euro zone. Germany is playing relatively nice with the other Euro zone countries for now. However, if the Germans are forced to pay for most all of Europe's bills, it is unlikely they just sit there and pay. Take Germany out of the Euro, and that sets a lot of wheels in motion. The kind of events that often have led to war in the past.
Statements were made by politicians of a certain political party that initiated the lack of confidence steamroller.
Fuld ran out of liquidity and Lewis and the Fed declined to hold his hand. Lewis had already made the deal for Merrill & wouldn't return Fulds calls. The Fed shut the window. Lehman & Bear just started the dominos.
Lehman and BearStearns could not project liquidity, power & confidence.
The USA can still project power. We are still barely liquid. Confidence? Not so much.
If we go down, the world goes down even more. Not everybody can live in New Zealand.
Save ten percent and diversify your unencumbered assets.
Greece created a massive problem for Europe at a debt-to-GDP level of 170% or so. Japan is the poster-child of overblown debt, yet it’s at 226% — about half of America’s true level.
The empires of the past 600 years were built on sound currencies...and passed on when those currencies became unsound. There's no real blueprint for how long the world's financial systems can survive on pure fiat currencies. We've only had 44 years of experience so far. What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency? Let's say in the next 5-10 yrs the G20/IMF vote for a new world currency that's based on IMF SDR's. And those SDR's are based on a basket of currencies/commodities? Instead of being 100% of the world's reserve monetary unit, the dollar is changed to 30-40% of the weighting? Wouldn't that have major consequences for Treasuries, US economic and financial markets, US trade, standards of living?
One theoretical possibility to an IMF SDR: USD 35% weight, other world currencies 45%, gold/oil/other commodities 20%.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>No amount of taxes can solve the very real ills plaguing our system — our on- and off-balance-sheet debts exceed 500% of GDP (542%).
Greece created a massive problem for Europe at a debt-to-GDP level of 170% or so. Japan is the poster-child of overblown debt, yet it’s at 226% — about half of America’s true level. >>
First, how do you know Japans "true" level of debt? Or Greece's?
Second, are you adding in "entitlements" to the USA's level to arrive at 542%? If so, are you adding in the increase in demographics, increased productivity and increased GDP over the next 30 years? GDP is up 325% over the last 30 years. In 2045, GDP will most likely be over $60 trillion.
The USA does not not have more relative debt than other "1st tier" countries, but it does have much more capital, in many terms, including human capital, intellectual capital, commodity capital, financial capital.
No one is saying "this time is different", but rather that no time is the same. Thats a HUGE difference that must be understood, which leads to the exaggerations you present of my comments.
I believe I have been very straight forward, logical, rational and consistent with my comments of the years and feel no need to "clarify". Clarity of thought can be improved when one rids themselves of manipulation and conspiracy theories, extraneous non-factual information and emotionally charged discourse. Just sayin'
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency? >>
It pretty much already has or is already well under way. Most countries formerly did business in USD but now have established trade agreements in their own currencies. China and Russia have been agressive about this and OPEC nations have been very accommodating to doing business in their customer's own currencies, or Euros & Yuan.
It would be a blessing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency?
It would be a blessing. >>
Like it was to Great Britain.
The lengths the US goes to to protect it should give you a clue.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency? >>
It pretty much already has or is already well under way. Most countries formerly did business in USD but now have established trade agreements in their own currencies. China and Russia have been agressive about this and OPEC nations have been very accommodating to doing business in their customer's own currencies, or Euros & Yuan. >>
There is always a lot of talk of the "petrodollar", but few seem to realize that oil is going the way of the dinosaur--pun intended. The greatest industry on the planet is technology and the USA is #1, by magnitudes of order. Iran and Russia and China can trade all the oil they want in whatever currency they want and it will not make one bit of difference to the USA in any way, shape or fashion.
100 years ago oil was the "future". Today it is the "past". Move forward or be left behind.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency?
It would be a blessing. >>
Like it was to Great Britain.
The lengths the US goes to to protect it should give you a clue. >>
Please tell me how Great Britain has suffered? Please explain these "lengths".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What if the US were to lose the exclusive right to the world's reserve currency?
It would be a blessing. >>
Seems to me that the US got the "blessing" by being able to export most of its inflation overseas for the better part of 70 years. Will that inflation coming back to US shores be a blessing? I don't know, but having to bring back a large % of the USD's and Treasuries being held overseas doesn't seem like a blessing. Not having the world's reserve currency also means scaling down the money washing (ie banking) by some of the biggest banks. It's not going to be so easy to sell otc interest rate swaps to foreign govts (ie Greece, Italy, etc.). Great Britain "suffered" by not being able to grow its economy and standard of living to record heights on the backs of the world. The US got that job in 1944. The UK went from a world power to an also ran - they rank behind France in GDP.