I was never talking about the market from 2 years ago. I'm talking about TODAY'S market. >>
Exactly. Todays market is priced 50% higher than 2 years ago. Just because you arent selling as many overpriced houses doesnt mean the economy sucks. The best cure for high prices is high prices. Always was, always will be. Be happy, the commission on 10 houses at $300k is the same as 20 houses at $150k. Unless you want to complain that your income is stagnant over the last 2 years, in which case I would have to agree but would counter that you are only doing 1/2 as much work .
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I was never talking about the market from 2 years ago. I'm talking about TODAY'S market. >>
Exactly. Todays market is priced 50% higher than 2 years ago. Just because you arent selling as many overpriced houses doesn't mean the economy sucks. The best cure for high prices is high prices. Always was, always will be. Be happy, the commission on 10 houses at $300k is the same as 20 houses at $150k. Unless you want to complain that your income is stagnant over the last 2 years, in which case I would have to agree but would counter that you are only doing 1/2 as much work . >>
Actually, it does mean the economy sucks. Housing is a key driver of the economy, especially in Phoenix. People buying homes buy furniture, remodel, decorate, landscape, etc. as well as the construction jobs all contribute by some estimates to 1/3 of the Phoenix economy which is the highest percentage of any major metro area. A decline in home sales volume (mostly irrelevant of prices) greatly impacts our local economy. And as the avg and median prices in Phoenix are fairly close to national averages it's difficult to convince me that the homes are over priced here unless they are overpriced everywhere. If J6P can't afford a house then that can only mean that a decline in the housing market is coming. And if a decline in housing is coming, that's usually a substantial headwind for the national economy.
So again, where are the bright spots in the economy?
Perfect article from today: A decade ago, Arizona Republic reporter Catherine Reagor and colleague Glen Creno revealed that almost one out of three dollars in the Valley economy was tied to real estate, new and existing. No other major metropolitan area in the United States was so heavily invested in one industry. Real estate has rebounded — just not as fast as anyone had hoped.
A recent report showed that experts expect only 11,000 new housing starts this year. We won't get to the pre-boom, 20,000 level of 2002 until the end of the decade, according to the report.
That's bad news because housing still drives this economy.
"Real estate is to Arizona's economy like oxygen is to the human body," said Ioanna Morfessis, the state's leading growth expert and founding CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. "We want to build a more diverse and robust economy, but we need a strong housing industry in this state and the whole value-supply chain it brings from high-paying jobs to vendors."
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market?
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market? >>
Market was in a decline until the foreign speculators stepped in. When they step out it will return to a decline.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market? >>
Market was in a decline until the foreign speculators stepped in. When they step out it will return to a decline. >>
Foreign speculators have been part of the real estate market for a long time and make up only a small portion of over all sales. The last 3 years was a "feeding frenzy" for any speculator, foreign or domestic.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
I get ya, PC. Stagnant doesnt mean declining though and Real estate has rebounded — just not as fast as anyone had hoped makes me wonder just how high you want prices to go? Back to 2006/7 levels when no one could afford and prices crashed? Or a more sustainable trend that backs and fills? If prices never drop then people wont think they are getting a bargain and will not buy. Sometimes healthy stores have sales to clear inventory. A healthy economy does the same.
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market? >>
Market was in a decline until the foreign speculators stepped in. When they step out it will return to a decline. >>
What if they dont step out? You gonna tell me Berlin is nicer than Jacksonville, London is nicer than Tampa, Moscow nicer than Miami? Unless the sun stops shining, people gonna like Florida (and California). I bet there are more than a few Swiss who like the 10% drop in US real estate (vs the franc).
<< <i>I get ya, PC. Stagnant doesnt mean declining though and Real estate has rebounded — just not as fast as anyone had hoped makes me wonder just how high you want prices to go? Back to 2006/7 levels when no one could afford and prices crashed? Or a more sustainable trend that backs and fills? If prices never drop then people wont think they are getting a bargain and will not buy. Sometimes healthy stores have sales to clear inventory. A healthy economy does the same. >>
I don't really "want" anything. I'm just countering your (and other's) misinformation while you try to convince me that Phoenix real estate is 'hot' when it clearly isn't:
<< <i><< Phoenix area real estate is booming has been for over a year at least... >>
I know that and am wondering why someone involved in that industry in that area has such a dour outlook on the economy.
FWIW---areas all across the west from Phoenix to Seattle to San Fran to salt lake city are experiencing strong economic growth. >>
I think I have shown that the Phoenix RE market is no longer "booming." It is stagnant. Truthfully, it is at a pivot point and could start going up, start a decline, or it could just stay stagnant. This is not "booming." We haven't focused on the overall economic growth of the Phoenix economy but it is not "strong." If it were it would probably be reflected in real estate. Phoenix is doing OK with some growth, but again not what I would consider 'strong.'
The national economic picture is a different story, and I have already presented my list of why I have a "dour outlook on the economy" but I emphasize again that is nationally, not Phoenix. You have yet to provide a list of why you have an optimistic view of the economy. RR made a good effort though, he's really the only one yet to try.
These guys even labeled their own memos to circumvent the system as "cheating." While JPM settled the civil lawsuit with Holder for a $13 BILL fine, another investigation in California is considering a criminal lawsuit. Maybe the big boyz aren't as "in the clear" as they thought. With Holder leaving it leaves the door again.
And there is one final, critical point buttressing the idea that the time is ripe to flood Congress with phone calls on this issue. If JPMorgan’s $13 billion civil settlement with Attorney General Eric Holder and the U.S. Justice Department was a tacit agreement to shut down the criminal investigation as well, somebody forgot to tell the Justice Department’s office for the Eastern District of California – the very office that previously took Fleischmann’s testimony and documents.
The 10Q quarterly report filed by JPMorgan with the SEC for the period ending September 30, 2014 (and filed just last Monday, November 3, 2014) included this notation:
“The Firm is responding to an ongoing investigation being conducted by the Criminal Division of the United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of California relating to MBS [mortgage backed securities] offerings securitized and sold by the Firm and its subsidiaries.” The emphasis on the word criminal is ours.
WTF! Sorta like changing a ruler's half inch increments to one inch increments to get a larger measurement.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have an old friend who bought lots of Gold and Silver through Tulving and Co.
I guess Tulving is now out of business.
She would like for me to ask your opinion on who any of you would recommend she sell to if the time comes.
She is not ready to sell yet but is looking to plan an exit strategy she is 75. I think she has about $125,000 worth of both metals. >>
Where located? Is she or are you able to inventory the lot such that she could get multiple quotes? Do you know what it consists of (bars, pre-1933 gold (rare or common?), modern gold, foreign gold, certified, non-certified)?
Just another extension of PA2. It's going to get worse. Minnesota already has a great head start.
good news: On January 29, 2015, the FDIC issued a Financial Institution Letter that “effectively ends Operation Choke Point.” As reported by Forbes, “a change in the political landscape, many businesses threatening legal action and a congressman with a background in banking [forced] the bureaucracy to admit to misconduct and to stop financial attacks on legal businesses that the Obama administration deems to be politically incorrect.”
Citibank Total Assets: $1,894,736,000,000 (almost 1.9 trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $59,944,502,000,000 (nearly 60 trillion dollars)
Goldman Sachs Total Assets: $915,705,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,564,516,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Bank Of America Total Assets: $2,152,533,000,000 (a bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,457,605,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Morgan Stanley Total Assets: $831,381,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $44,946,153,000,000 (more than 44 trillion dollars)
<< <i>I get ya, PC. Stagnant doesnt mean declining though and Real estate has rebounded — just not as fast as anyone had hoped makes me wonder just how high you want prices to go? Back to 2006/7 levels when no one could afford and prices crashed? Or a more sustainable trend that backs and fills? If prices never drop then people wont think they are getting a bargain and will not buy. Sometimes healthy stores have sales to clear inventory. A healthy economy does the same. >>
I don't really "want" anything. I'm just countering your (and other's) misinformation while you try to convince me that Phoenix real estate is 'hot' when it clearly isn't:
<< <i><< Phoenix area real estate is booming has been for over a year at least... >>
I know that and am wondering why someone involved in that industry in that area has such a dour outlook on the economy.
FWIW---areas all across the west from Phoenix to Seattle to San Fran to salt lake city are experiencing strong economic growth. >>
I think I have shown that the Phoenix RE market is no longer "booming." It is stagnant. Truthfully, it is at a pivot point and could start going up, start a decline, or it could just stay stagnant. This is not "booming." We haven't focused on the overall economic growth of the Phoenix economy but it is not "strong." If it were it would probably be reflected in real estate. Phoenix is doing OK with some growth, but again not what I would consider 'strong.'
The national economic picture is a different story, and I have already presented my list of why I have a "dour outlook on the economy" but I emphasize again that is nationally, not Phoenix. You have yet to provide a list of why you have an optimistic view of the economy. RR made a good effort though, he's really the only one yet to try. >>
If Phoenix real estate isnt hot then wouldnt you expect it to drop considerably over the next year or 2? Shall we meet in Vegas to consumate a wager? Phoenix home prices will be higher 2 years from now. Thats misinformation you can take to the bank.
Phoenix isnt like 2006, and you should be very thankful for that. Phoenix real estate is much closer to hot than it is cold. If you dont believe so then youre in the wrong business.
Citibank Total Assets: $1,894,736,000,000 (almost 1.9 trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $59,944,502,000,000 (nearly 60 trillion dollars)
Goldman Sachs Total Assets: $915,705,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,564,516,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Bank Of America Total Assets: $2,152,533,000,000 (a bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,457,605,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Morgan Stanley Total Assets: $831,381,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars) Total Exposure To Derivatives: $44,946,153,000,000 (more than 44 trillion dollars) >>
So Exxon and Chevron wont make as much money....im supposed to feel bad about the economy? WTF man? Think about what that article really says. Really think about it. How much are sales at the big oil companies going to drop after a 50% drop in the price of oil. A LOT RIGHT!!!!???? And overall sales are going to be 0. What does that mean......that the rest of the companies are going to see HUGE SALES GAINS.
You guys crack me up with the derivative stuff. I just wish you really knew what derivatives are.
Where the duck did the ability to think go!!!!????
You guys crack me up with the derivative stuff. I just wish you really knew what derivatives are.
We know what they are. They are the same things that blew up LTCM in 1998 and required a bailout via the big banks to keep the financial system afloat, The also blew up Enron. Then they blew up Lehman, AIG, WaMu, Bear Stearns, nearly Citi, and others in 2008 where once again another govt Bailout was required to save the financial system. They basically blew up the US mortgage market in 2008-2009. Didn't Citi shares fall to <$1 at the peak of the derivative's crisis as they teetered on insolvency? Derivatives are the monopoly money of the banking industry. While designed to "minimze" or balance out risks, it's quite clear all they have done is created a way to nuke an entire industry when someone lights a fuse by mistake. They are so "benign" and "helpful" that banking lobbyists visited the CFTC 1500 times in the past couple of years to help whittle down the pending Dodd-Frank regulations to nearly nothing. Consumers love them so much that they now take precedence over customer deposits/funds when it comes to pay out of a distressed bank's assets. Consumer's are now on the hook for those $300 TRILL in derivative contracts. Didn't have that in 2008. And if we did? That $10-$20 TRILL in slush money would have had to come out of consumer/customer funds. That would have been a trick.
Derivatives are so benign that when the BIS listed them in summer of 2008 at >$1.1 QUAD total....they later decided to revise the methodologies to value them 6 months later and cut the total to <$700 TRILL. (ie value them at mark to model based on estimated value at contract expiration vs. the previous mark to market). Brooksley Born understood them back in the late 1990's...as well as after they crashed in 2008. See what she had/has to say about them. Even Buffet calls them financial weapons of mass destruction...but what would he know? Can you find one person outside the top 6 US banks that feels that the $300 TRILL in otc derivs they hold is a "good thing?" And too much of a good thing is never bad. The cure for too many otc derivatives? Well of course, even more otc derivatives.
What is totally unknown is how the system will react when the interest rate contracts come under stress. Those are 10X to 20X the size of any otc derivative stresses seen to date. I know...we can just "net" them out. Darn, why didn't Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner, and Kashkari think of that?
Seems to me that otc derivatives are pretty much synonymous with fraud and skimming immoral/illegal profits from the financial system. Wouldn't it be nice to hear a story on how otc derivatives saved the financial system from going off a cliff.....anywhere....at any time. Bueller? Bueller?
<< <i>If Phoenix real estate isnt hot then wouldnt you expect it to drop considerably over the next year or 2? Shall we meet in Vegas to consumate a wager? Phoenix home prices will be higher 2 years from now. Thats misinformation you can take to the bank.
Phoenix isnt like 2006, and you should be very thankful for that. Phoenix real estate is much closer to hot than it is cold. If you dont believe so then youre in the wrong business. >>
Assuming you're talking about pricing (and not volume), why would a market that is 'not hot' have to drop? Can't it just go sideways? I would even call a price increase of 1-2% to be 'not hot.' Investors don't get into real estate when prices are only going up a few percent annually. Investor activity in Phoenix real estate is non-existent right now. 2 years ago, different story. Today? Nothing.
I don't see any real reason for home prices in Phoenix to drop unless a bunch of inventory hits the market and I don't see that happening. I also don't see any drivers for demand to push prices up. If there is anything positive about the Phoenix economy it is the new governor who should be really positive for economic development and should finally allow the state to pursue many opportunities that previous leaders were too inept to pursue or just didn't care about (such as developing the film industry). The Arizona economy is better than most, and it has potential but it's still not 'hot' no matter how much you want it to be. Feel free to show us some data that says otherwise.
What is totally unknown is how the system will react when the interest rate contracts come under stress. Those are 10X to 20X the size of any otc derivative stresses seen to date. I know...we can just "net" them out. Darn, why didn't Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner, and Kashkari think of that?
We all know they can't just net them out. The proceeds from the winning sides of 2008 are long gone, and the obligations from the losing sides of 2008 were rolled over, re-hypothecated, and legislated onto balance sheets permanently.
Going forward, there's nothing that says they won't simply bump the order of magnitude on this next batch by 10. They've been getting away with this trick for a long time now. It works until someone big puts their foot down after getting screwed, and that's probably in the cards fairly soon. We shall see.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Investors don't get into real estate when prices are only going up a few percent annually. Investor activity in Phoenix real estate is non-existent right now. 2 years ago, different story. Today? Nothing
This is EXCELLENT info. Investors dont belong in residential real estate, families do. Now you have a healthy market in Phoenix. Rejoice in the return to normalcy.
Can you find one person outside the top 6 US banks that feels that the $300 TRILL in otc derivs they hold is a "good thing?"
Only place I see they are a bad thing is in precious metals internet chat rooms.
You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant. Im not pointing to you, RR, but rather to the hucksters who constantly try to permeate these ridiculous and uniformed ideas. Derivatives are not your field of expertise so I do not expect you to completely understand. And as far as citing the so-called "experts", if they know so much, why are they writing blogs, or consulting for PM hucksters or providing "expert testimony" to zerohedge?
What is totally unknown is how the system will react when the interest rate contracts come under stress.
Yeah, the unknown is so scary isnt it? Knowledge/understanding fights fear.
Will there be some event that triggers exercise of some derivatives? Absolutely. Will some financial institution fail? Absolutely. Will the world end? Nope. Will the USA lose its sovereignty? Nope. Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. Will gold increase in value vs other assets? Maybe. Will you and I die? Absolutely. So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control.
You are letting "them" win. THEY control you via fear.
<< <i> Can you find one person outside the top 6 US banks that feels that the $300 TRILL in otc derivs they hold is a "good thing?"
Only place I see they are a bad thing is in precious metals internet chat rooms.
You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant. Im not pointing to you, RR, but rather to the hucksters who constantly try to permeate these ridiculous and uniformed ideas. Derivatives are not your field of expertise so I do not expect you to completely understand. And as far as citing the so-called "experts", if they know so much, why are they writing blogs, or consulting for PM hucksters or providing "expert testimony" to zerohedge?
What is totally unknown is how the system will react when the interest rate contracts come under stress.
Yeah, the unknown is so scary isnt it? Knowledge/understanding fights fear.
Will there be some event that triggers exercise of some derivatives? Absolutely. Will some financial institution fail? Absolutely. Will the world end? Nope. Will the USA lose its sovereignty? Nope. Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. Will gold increase in value vs other assets? Maybe. Will you and I die? Absolutely. So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control.
You are letting "them" win. THEY control you via fear. >>
Not all derivatives are a threat to the economy and not all derivative losses are limited to the cash up front as in your example. Those of us that remember 2008 KNOW what damage certain types of derivatives can do to an economy, particularly when in the hands of someone using other people's money. You conveniently forget that bad real estate paper bets in the US brought the entire world economy to its knees where it still remains.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i> what does "to it's knees" even mean, economically speaking. >>
It means that those who don't live in Baleyville are mostly struggling to make ends meet.
Over $10T worldwide in bailout money is a pretty good indicator that an economy has been brought to its knees. On-going rounds of new QE, such as in the eurozone, indicate economic health has not been restored and that the disease is still spreading. QE will return to the US, and is probably currently underway in some disguised form.
If we have recovered from the damage done in 2008, why have not all of the economic indicators (i.e. real income, employment, GDP, number of Americans depending on entitlements) returned to pre-2008 levels?
To get a better idea of how the rest of the world is doing, you really need to look past your own checkbook balance.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have an old friend who bought lots of Gold and Silver through Tulving and Co.
I guess Tulving is now out of business.
She would like for me to ask your opinion on who any of you would recommend she sell to if the time comes.
She is not ready to sell yet but is looking to plan an exit strategy she is 75. I think she has about $125,000 worth of both metals. >>
Really should be a thread of its own.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Just suggesting that putting it in its own thread will most likely get you more response. Most of the readers come to this thread to discuss economic news that affects gold, silver and coins.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant..... >>
Yes, but your trade is unlike derivatives, where if either you or your broker goes bankrupt/insolvent, then someone has to pay off that $1.6 MILL notional. That's how otc derivatives work. LCTM, AIG, BSC, and Lehman proved that already. Lehman lost 91% on the value of their derivatives trades when everything was unwound. It would sure suck to see a 91% loss on $300 TRILL. It's not a regulated futures or options market. I've been studying derivatives for the past 12 years, I know something about them. One doesn't have to understand everything about markets to know that $300 TRILL in US banking derivatives is insane.
Why do we have or accept such a thing now called "systemic risk?" And nearly all of that comes from otc derivatives. As US citizens and taxpayers we are all now on the hook for the socialized losses of Too Big To Jail banks. And any notion contrary to such is ignorant of the recent laws that have been passed. It is what it is. And what it is....ain't good. Someone was on the hook for $10-$20 TRILL of losses in 2008. And someone will be on the hook for the next crisis. The fact that customers now stand behind banking derivative's payouts is troubling indeed. Please explain why that was done if it was not to transfer risk from the banks to taxpayers? And fwiw, no one on this forum (until today that is) has listed the otc derivatives at $4 QUAD notional.
<< <i>All of her gold and silver is modern bullion in one ounce coins. In a bank in N. Carolina.
She could sell and or ship to any one in the U.S. Just need a couple of reliable dealers?? >>
Well for trustworthiness and reliability and what she has APMEX is probably as good of a place as any. They publish their buy prices for most items on their website. I have a local dealer (Phoenix, AZ) that I absolutely trust that would also handle this and give a fair offer: http://allamericangold.com/
<< <i>You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant..... >>
Who was "on the hook" for the '08 real estate CDS derivative blowup? Who made the bets and who paid the bill? Can it happen again on an even larger scale?
This is the threat of Wall St./TBTF contracts that are tied to the "value" of something. There is also a direct relationship between the seriousness of the threat and the amount of leverage involved. Hundreds of trillions is a lot of leverage - a lot of threat.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Will there be some event that triggers exercise of some derivatives? Absolutely. Will some financial institution fail? Absolutely. Will the world end? Nope. Will the USA lose its sovereignty? Nope. Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. Will gold increase in value vs other assets? Maybe. Will you and I die? Absolutely. So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control.
You are letting "them" win. THEY control you via fear. >>
Will the world end? The big banksters sure thought it was going to in 2008 with the collapse Lehman Bros. They were able to work their way out of that one, but I'm not convinced that similar maneuvers are going to work again.
<< <i>Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. >>
And you know this how? All previous great currencies of the world have thought the same thing. Oh that's right, it's different this time.
<< <i>So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control. >>
Or, prepare for the consequences or try to capitalize on it, which is the purpose of this thread. If you don't see the need or value in preparing, that's your call. One of us will be right.
You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant.....
Let's talk about that. When was the last time you took out a bet with $1,600,000 to $2,500 odds? We can reasonably assume that most of the contracts are much closer to the middle of the bell curve. What we know is that several major banks went bankrupt in 2008 because of these types of bad bets, and that we taxpayers are the ones paying for their bonuses (remember AIGs big bonuses AFTER they got bailed out?), vacations, retirements and "get-out-of-jail-free" cards. Why do you always shill for the banking system? Just askin'.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>All of her gold and silver is modern bullion in one ounce coins. In a bank in N. Carolina.
She could sell and or ship to any one in the U.S. Just need a couple of reliable dealers?? >>
Y would she sell?, she has no heirs?... She should never ship to any dealer anywhere...she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
Wow, just, wow... What fear, amazing... >>
I would not even consider driving through the southern states with >$10K in cash and/or bullion on me. Just the simplest of traffic stops and it could be gone. If you do go this route you better have some stout documentation with you such as invoices, etc. Just carrying large sums of cash with you automatically casts the shadow of "money laundering" upon you. And you will be assumed guilty until proven otherwise. Just my 2 cents.
Yes, civil forfeiture is a revenue stream for local constabulary. It is not often reported in the local news cycle but occasionally a story slips through in the media. They like cash the best...it just disappears, no receipt, no record, just poof.Please lean forward
When was the last time you took out a bet with $1,600,000 to $2,500 odds? We can reasonably assume that most of the contracts are much closer to the middle of the bell curve
These are not odds and if you truly understood derivatives you would know that which makes the second sentence "unreasonable".
You continue to look at markets as a casino. There are no odds. Your comprehension is jaded by your opinion.
Using the same ratio as above, but believe me the ratio on many derivatives is much greater, a $1 Trillion position can be controlled by about $1.5 billion. And yes, that is a lot of money and some banks could fail if the position went against them, just as happened in 2008. However, there would not be $300 trillion in losses, because that would mean ALL the banks fail. Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over".
Banks have failed since the first bank. Big deal. There wont be a catastrophic collapse of the global banking system.
BTW---In the example I gave, that $2500 IBM position is now worth $15,000.
<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
Wow, just, wow... What fear, amazing... >>
wow, just, wow... How naive, amazing...
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There are all kinds of derivatives out there. Any investment that is not physically backed by an underlying asset can be considered a derivative. Derivatives don't threaten the economy. Reckless derivative players threaten the economy, especially if they are the custodians of our banking system, just as in 2008. It is not derivatives that are the threat - it is who is allowed to wager large amounts of other people's money and who must cover the losses. The unregulation of derivatives will again prove to be our economic downfall.
<< <i> Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over". >>
Then why was it necessary to recently put US taxpayers (via FDIC funds) on the hook for a bank's potential derivative losses? Here's Why.
". . . deposits are now “just part of commercial banks’ capital structure.” That means they can be “bailed in” or confiscated to save the megabanks from derivative bets gone wrong."
The other problem is that large derivative contracts also involve non-bank hedge funds who don't care if their win ruins a bank. There's a winning and a losing side to all derivative bets. The winner expects and demands to get paid - just like he did circa. 2008.
Who's gonna cover what the FDIC and depositor accounts will be unable to cover?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Not to mention that all of the big boys are so entertwined an insured and hedged by each other such that if one fails, the others fail. That was the case in 2008. Does anyone think this situation has changed?
<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
Wow, just, wow... What fear, amazing... >>
wow, just, wow... How naive, amazing... >>
Lol, derryb u live in fantasy land, afraid of da bogeyman...sad commentary...but so be it... Registered mail good idea if must be used...
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2013/03/28/phoenix-home-prices-show-365-percent.html?page=all
Dang....and you call this a bad market? >>
I was never talking about the market from 2 years ago. I'm talking about TODAY'S market. >>
Exactly. Todays market is priced 50% higher than 2 years ago. Just because you arent selling as many overpriced houses doesnt mean the economy sucks. The best cure for high prices is high prices. Always was, always will be. Be happy, the commission on 10 houses at $300k is the same as 20 houses at $150k. Unless you want to complain that your income is stagnant over the last 2 years, in which case I would have to agree but would counter that you are only doing 1/2 as much work
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Even in a declining market, homes can become very overpriced if foreign investors want them. >>
Was there a solar flare in Florida? Something messing you brain.
Foreign capital is flooding into U.S. real estate
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2013/03/28/phoenix-home-prices-show-365-percent.html?page=all
Dang....and you call this a bad market? >>
I was never talking about the market from 2 years ago. I'm talking about TODAY'S market. >>
Exactly. Todays market is priced 50% higher than 2 years ago. Just because you arent selling as many overpriced houses doesn't mean the economy sucks. The best cure for high prices is high prices. Always was, always will be. Be happy, the commission on 10 houses at $300k is the same as 20 houses at $150k. Unless you want to complain that your income is stagnant over the last 2 years, in which case I would have to agree but would counter that you are only doing 1/2 as much work
Actually, it does mean the economy sucks. Housing is a key driver of the economy, especially in Phoenix. People buying homes buy furniture, remodel, decorate, landscape, etc. as well as the construction jobs all contribute by some estimates to 1/3 of the Phoenix economy which is the highest percentage of any major metro area. A decline in home sales volume (mostly irrelevant of prices) greatly impacts our local economy.
And as the avg and median prices in Phoenix are fairly close to national averages it's difficult to convince me that the homes are over priced here unless they are overpriced everywhere. If J6P can't afford a house then that can only mean that a decline in the housing market is coming. And if a decline in housing is coming, that's usually a substantial headwind for the national economy.
So again, where are the bright spots in the economy?
Perfect article from today:
A decade ago, Arizona Republic reporter Catherine Reagor and colleague Glen Creno revealed that almost one out of three dollars in the Valley economy was tied to real estate, new and existing. No other major metropolitan area in the United States was so heavily invested in one industry.
Real estate has rebounded — just not as fast as anyone had hoped.
A recent report showed that experts expect only 11,000 new housing starts this year. We won't get to the pre-boom, 20,000 level of 2002 until the end of the decade, according to the report.
That's bad news because housing still drives this economy.
"Real estate is to Arizona's economy like oxygen is to the human body," said Ioanna Morfessis, the state's leading growth expert and founding CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. "We want to build a more diverse and robust economy, but we need a strong housing industry in this state and the whole value-supply chain it brings from high-paying jobs to vendors."
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Even in a declining market, homes can become very overpriced if foreign investors want them. >>
Was there a solar flare in Florida? Something messing you brain.
Foreign capital is flooding into U.S. real estate
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Even in a declining market, homes can become very overpriced if foreign investors want them. >>
Was there a solar flare in Florida? Something messing you brain.
Foreign capital is flooding into U.S. real estate
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market? >>
Market was in a decline until the foreign speculators stepped in. When they step out it will return to a decline.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Even in a declining market, homes can become very overpriced if foreign investors want them. >>
Was there a solar flare in Florida? Something messing you brain.
Foreign capital is flooding into U.S. real estate
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market? >>
Market was in a decline until the foreign speculators stepped in. When they step out it will return to a decline. >>
Foreign speculators have been part of the real estate market for a long time and make up only a small portion of over all sales. The last 3 years was a "feeding frenzy" for any speculator, foreign or domestic.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Even in a declining market, homes can become very overpriced if foreign investors want them. >>
Was there a solar flare in Florida? Something messing you brain.
Foreign capital is flooding into U.S. real estate
“Foreign capital is driving the wave of price escalation and speculation,” said Ronald M. Dickerman, president and founder of New York real estate money management firm Madison International Realty.
Dam speculators. Dam solar flares. >>
I think you missed his point. If speculators are driving prices up to a point considered "overpriced" how exactly can you have a 'declining' market? >>
Market was in a decline until the foreign speculators stepped in. When they step out it will return to a decline. >>
What if they dont step out? You gonna tell me Berlin is nicer than Jacksonville, London is nicer than Tampa, Moscow nicer than Miami? Unless the sun stops shining, people gonna like Florida (and California). I bet there are more than a few Swiss who like the 10% drop in US real estate (vs the franc).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I get ya, PC. Stagnant doesnt mean declining though and Real estate has rebounded — just not as fast as anyone had hoped makes me wonder just how high you want prices to go? Back to 2006/7 levels when no one could afford and prices crashed? Or a more sustainable trend that backs and fills? If prices never drop then people wont think they are getting a bargain and will not buy. Sometimes healthy stores have sales to clear inventory. A healthy economy does the same. >>
I don't really "want" anything. I'm just countering your (and other's) misinformation while you try to convince me that Phoenix real estate is 'hot' when it clearly isn't:
<< <i><< Phoenix area real estate is booming has been for over a year at least... >>
I know that and am wondering why someone involved in that industry in that area has such a dour outlook on the economy.
FWIW---areas all across the west from Phoenix to Seattle to San Fran to salt lake city are experiencing strong economic growth. >>
I think I have shown that the Phoenix RE market is no longer "booming." It is stagnant. Truthfully, it is at a pivot point and could start going up, start a decline, or it could just stay stagnant. This is not "booming." We haven't focused on the overall economic growth of the Phoenix economy but it is not "strong." If it were it would probably be reflected in real estate. Phoenix is doing OK with some growth, but again not what I would consider 'strong.'
The national economic picture is a different story, and I have already presented my list of why I have a "dour outlook on the economy" but I emphasize again that is nationally, not Phoenix. You have yet to provide a list of why you have an optimistic view of the economy. RR made a good effort though, he's really the only one yet to try.
These guys even labeled their own memos to circumvent the system as "cheating." While JPM settled the civil lawsuit with Holder for a $13 BILL fine, another investigation in California is considering a criminal lawsuit. Maybe the big boyz aren't as "in the clear" as they thought. With Holder leaving it leaves the door again.
And there is one final, critical point buttressing the idea that the time is ripe to flood Congress with phone calls on this issue. If JPMorgan’s $13 billion civil settlement with Attorney General Eric Holder and the U.S. Justice Department was a tacit agreement to shut down the criminal investigation as well, somebody forgot to tell the Justice Department’s office for the Eastern District of California – the very office that previously took Fleischmann’s testimony and documents.
The 10Q quarterly report filed by JPMorgan with the SEC for the period ending September 30, 2014 (and filed just last Monday, November 3, 2014) included this notation:
“The Firm is responding to an ongoing investigation being conducted by the Criminal Division of the United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of California relating to MBS [mortgage backed securities] offerings securitized and sold by the Firm and its subsidiaries.” The emphasis on the word criminal is ours.
And now BoA is on the pad for using govt backed funds to place risky leveraged trades and avoid taxes - expect a serious slap on the wrist for this!
WTF! Sorta like changing a ruler's half inch increments to one inch increments to get a larger measurement.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Caption Contest: Spot the person who just realized it's not going to work.
I knew it would happen.
I have an old friend who bought lots of Gold and Silver through Tulving and Co.
I guess Tulving is now out of business.
She would like for me to ask your opinion on who any of you would recommend she sell to if the time comes.
She is not ready to sell yet but is looking to plan an exit strategy she is 75. I think she has about $125,000 worth of both metals.
<< <i>Help Please,
I have an old friend who bought lots of Gold and Silver through Tulving and Co.
I guess Tulving is now out of business.
She would like for me to ask your opinion on who any of you would recommend she sell to if the time comes.
She is not ready to sell yet but is looking to plan an exit strategy she is 75. I think she has about $125,000 worth of both metals. >>
Where located?
Is she or are you able to inventory the lot such that she could get multiple quotes?
Do you know what it consists of (bars, pre-1933 gold (rare or common?), modern gold, foreign gold, certified, non-certified)?
Just another extension of PA2. It's going to get worse. Minnesota already has a great head start.
good news: On January 29, 2015, the FDIC issued a Financial Institution Letter that “effectively ends Operation Choke Point.” As reported by Forbes, “a change in the political landscape, many businesses threatening legal action and a congressman with a background in banking [forced] the bureaucracy to admit to misconduct and to stop financial attacks on legal businesses that the Obama administration deems to be politically incorrect.”
Sales growth for America's big companies is now expected to be zero
In a note to clients this weekend, David Kostin at Goldman Sachs wrote that consensus forecasts for sales growth in 2015 is now at 0% as declining estimates among energy companies have taken their toll on expectations. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/markets-chart-of-the-day-february-9-2015-2#ixzz3RUIQrQyc
And to further RR's previous comments:
5 U.S. Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives
(as of Sept 2014)
JPMorgan Chase
Total Assets: $2,476,986,000,000 (about 2.5 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $67,951,190,000,000 (more than 67 trillion dollars)
Citibank
Total Assets: $1,894,736,000,000 (almost 1.9 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $59,944,502,000,000 (nearly 60 trillion dollars)
Goldman Sachs
Total Assets: $915,705,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,564,516,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Bank Of America
Total Assets: $2,152,533,000,000 (a bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,457,605,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Morgan Stanley
Total Assets: $831,381,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $44,946,153,000,000 (more than 44 trillion dollars)
<< <i>
<< <i>I get ya, PC. Stagnant doesnt mean declining though and Real estate has rebounded — just not as fast as anyone had hoped makes me wonder just how high you want prices to go? Back to 2006/7 levels when no one could afford and prices crashed? Or a more sustainable trend that backs and fills? If prices never drop then people wont think they are getting a bargain and will not buy. Sometimes healthy stores have sales to clear inventory. A healthy economy does the same. >>
I don't really "want" anything. I'm just countering your (and other's) misinformation while you try to convince me that Phoenix real estate is 'hot' when it clearly isn't:
<< <i><< Phoenix area real estate is booming has been for over a year at least... >>
I know that and am wondering why someone involved in that industry in that area has such a dour outlook on the economy.
FWIW---areas all across the west from Phoenix to Seattle to San Fran to salt lake city are experiencing strong economic growth. >>
I think I have shown that the Phoenix RE market is no longer "booming." It is stagnant. Truthfully, it is at a pivot point and could start going up, start a decline, or it could just stay stagnant. This is not "booming." We haven't focused on the overall economic growth of the Phoenix economy but it is not "strong." If it were it would probably be reflected in real estate. Phoenix is doing OK with some growth, but again not what I would consider 'strong.'
The national economic picture is a different story, and I have already presented my list of why I have a "dour outlook on the economy" but I emphasize again that is nationally, not Phoenix. You have yet to provide a list of why you have an optimistic view of the economy. RR made a good effort though, he's really the only one yet to try. >>
If Phoenix real estate isnt hot then wouldnt you expect it to drop considerably over the next year or 2? Shall we meet in Vegas to consumate a wager? Phoenix home prices will be higher 2 years from now. Thats misinformation you can take to the bank.
Phoenix isnt like 2006, and you should be very thankful for that. Phoenix real estate is much closer to hot than it is cold. If you dont believe so then youre in the wrong business.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>One more item for the list of 'reasons for a dour outlook on the economy:'
Sales growth for America's big companies is now expected to be zero
In a note to clients this weekend, David Kostin at Goldman Sachs wrote that consensus forecasts for sales growth in 2015 is now at 0% as declining estimates among energy companies have taken their toll on expectations. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/markets-chart-of-the-day-february-9-2015-2#ixzz3RUIQrQyc
And to further RR's previous comments:
5 U.S. Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives
(as of Sept 2014)
JPMorgan Chase
Total Assets: $2,476,986,000,000 (about 2.5 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $67,951,190,000,000 (more than 67 trillion dollars)
Citibank
Total Assets: $1,894,736,000,000 (almost 1.9 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $59,944,502,000,000 (nearly 60 trillion dollars)
Goldman Sachs
Total Assets: $915,705,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,564,516,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Bank Of America
Total Assets: $2,152,533,000,000 (a bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,457,605,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)
Morgan Stanley
Total Assets: $831,381,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)
Total Exposure To Derivatives: $44,946,153,000,000 (more than 44 trillion dollars) >>
So Exxon and Chevron wont make as much money....im supposed to feel bad about the economy? WTF man? Think about what that article really says. Really think about it. How much are sales at the big oil companies going to drop after a 50% drop in the price of oil. A LOT RIGHT!!!!???? And overall sales are going to be 0. What does that mean......that the rest of the companies are going to see HUGE SALES GAINS.
You guys crack me up with the derivative stuff. I just wish you really knew what derivatives are.
Where the duck did the ability to think go!!!!????
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We know what they are. They are the same things that blew up LTCM in 1998 and required a bailout via the big banks to keep the financial system afloat, The also blew up Enron. Then they blew up Lehman, AIG, WaMu, Bear Stearns, nearly Citi, and others in 2008 where once again another govt Bailout was required to save the financial system. They basically blew up the US mortgage market in 2008-2009. Didn't Citi shares fall to <$1 at the peak of the derivative's crisis as they teetered on insolvency? Derivatives are the monopoly money of the banking industry. While designed to "minimze" or balance out risks, it's quite clear all they have done is created a way to nuke an entire industry when someone lights a fuse by mistake. They are so "benign" and "helpful" that banking lobbyists visited the CFTC 1500 times in the past couple of years to help whittle down the pending Dodd-Frank regulations to nearly nothing. Consumers love them so much that they now take precedence over customer deposits/funds when it comes to pay out of a distressed bank's assets. Consumer's are now on the hook for those $300 TRILL in derivative contracts. Didn't have that in 2008. And if we did? That $10-$20 TRILL in slush money would have had to come out of consumer/customer funds. That would have been a trick.
Derivatives are so benign that when the BIS listed them in summer of 2008 at >$1.1 QUAD total....they later decided to revise the methodologies to value them 6 months later and cut the total to <$700 TRILL. (ie value them at mark to model based on estimated value at contract expiration vs. the previous mark to market). Brooksley Born understood them back in the late 1990's...as well as after they crashed in 2008. See what she had/has to say about them. Even Buffet calls them financial weapons of mass destruction...but what would he know? Can you find one person outside the top 6 US banks that feels that the $300 TRILL in otc derivs they hold is a "good thing?" And too much of a good thing is never bad. The cure for too many otc derivatives? Well of course, even more otc derivatives.
What is totally unknown is how the system will react when the interest rate contracts come under stress. Those are 10X to 20X the size of any otc derivative stresses seen to date. I know...we can just "net" them out. Darn, why didn't Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner, and Kashkari think of that?
Why otc derivatives are so good
Seems to me that otc derivatives are pretty much synonymous with fraud and skimming immoral/illegal profits from the financial system. Wouldn't it be nice to hear a story on how otc derivatives saved the financial system from going off a cliff.....anywhere....at any time. Bueller? Bueller?
<< <i>If Phoenix real estate isnt hot then wouldnt you expect it to drop considerably over the next year or 2? Shall we meet in Vegas to consumate a wager? Phoenix home prices will be higher 2 years from now. Thats misinformation you can take to the bank.
Phoenix isnt like 2006, and you should be very thankful for that. Phoenix real estate is much closer to hot than it is cold. If you dont believe so then youre in the wrong business. >>
Assuming you're talking about pricing (and not volume), why would a market that is 'not hot' have to drop? Can't it just go sideways? I would even call a price increase of 1-2% to be 'not hot.' Investors don't get into real estate when prices are only going up a few percent annually. Investor activity in Phoenix real estate is non-existent right now. 2 years ago, different story. Today? Nothing.
I don't see any real reason for home prices in Phoenix to drop unless a bunch of inventory hits the market and I don't see that happening. I also don't see any drivers for demand to push prices up. If there is anything positive about the Phoenix economy it is the new governor who should be really positive for economic development and should finally allow the state to pursue many opportunities that previous leaders were too inept to pursue or just didn't care about (such as developing the film industry). The Arizona economy is better than most, and it has potential but it's still not 'hot' no matter how much you want it to be. Feel free to show us some data that says otherwise.
We all know they can't just net them out. The proceeds from the winning sides of 2008 are long gone, and the obligations from the losing sides of 2008 were rolled over, re-hypothecated, and legislated onto balance sheets permanently.
Going forward, there's nothing that says they won't simply bump the order of magnitude on this next batch by 10. They've been getting away with this trick for a long time now. It works until someone big puts their foot down after getting screwed, and that's probably in the cards fairly soon. We shall see.
I knew it would happen.
This is EXCELLENT info. Investors dont belong in residential real estate, families do. Now you have a healthy market in Phoenix. Rejoice in the return to normalcy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Only place I see they are a bad thing is in precious metals internet chat rooms.
You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant. Im not pointing to you, RR, but rather to the hucksters who constantly try to permeate these ridiculous and uniformed ideas. Derivatives are not your field of expertise so I do not expect you to completely understand. And as far as citing the so-called "experts", if they know so much, why are they writing blogs, or consulting for PM hucksters or providing "expert testimony" to zerohedge?
What is totally unknown is how the system will react when the interest rate contracts come under stress.
Yeah, the unknown is so scary isnt it? Knowledge/understanding fights fear.
Will there be some event that triggers exercise of some derivatives? Absolutely. Will some financial institution fail? Absolutely. Will the world end? Nope. Will the USA lose its sovereignty? Nope. Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. Will gold increase in value vs other assets? Maybe. Will you and I die? Absolutely. So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control.
You are letting "them" win. THEY control you via fear.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> Can you find one person outside the top 6 US banks that feels that the $300 TRILL in otc derivs they hold is a "good thing?"
Only place I see they are a bad thing is in precious metals internet chat rooms.
You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant. Im not pointing to you, RR, but rather to the hucksters who constantly try to permeate these ridiculous and uniformed ideas. Derivatives are not your field of expertise so I do not expect you to completely understand. And as far as citing the so-called "experts", if they know so much, why are they writing blogs, or consulting for PM hucksters or providing "expert testimony" to zerohedge?
What is totally unknown is how the system will react when the interest rate contracts come under stress.
Yeah, the unknown is so scary isnt it? Knowledge/understanding fights fear.
Will there be some event that triggers exercise of some derivatives? Absolutely. Will some financial institution fail? Absolutely. Will the world end? Nope. Will the USA lose its sovereignty? Nope. Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. Will gold increase in value vs other assets? Maybe. Will you and I die? Absolutely. So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control.
You are letting "them" win. THEY control you via fear. >>
Not all derivatives are a threat to the economy and not all derivative losses are limited to the cash up front as in your example. Those of us that remember 2008 KNOW what damage certain types of derivatives can do to an economy, particularly when in the hands of someone using other people's money. You conveniently forget that bad real estate paper bets in the US brought the entire world economy to its knees where it still remains.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
there you go again! No it didn't, and no it doesn't. what does "to it's knees" even mean, economically speaking.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> what does "to it's knees" even mean, economically speaking. >>
It means that those who don't live in Baleyville are mostly struggling to make ends meet.
Over $10T worldwide in bailout money is a pretty good indicator that an economy has been brought to its knees. On-going rounds of new QE, such as in the eurozone, indicate economic health has not been restored and that the disease is still spreading. QE will return to the US, and is probably currently underway in some disguised form.
If we have recovered from the damage done in 2008, why have not all of the economic indicators (i.e. real income, employment, GDP, number of Americans depending on entitlements) returned to pre-2008 levels?
To get a better idea of how the rest of the world is doing, you really need to look past your own checkbook balance.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
She could sell and or ship to any one in the U.S. Just need a couple of reliable dealers??
<< <i>Help Please,
I have an old friend who bought lots of Gold and Silver through Tulving and Co.
I guess Tulving is now out of business.
She would like for me to ask your opinion on who any of you would recommend she sell to if the time comes.
She is not ready to sell yet but is looking to plan an exit strategy she is 75. I think she has about $125,000 worth of both metals. >>
Really should be a thread of its own.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"GOLD AND SILVER, ECONOMIC NEWS, COINS, "
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant..... >>
Yes, but your trade is unlike derivatives, where if either you or your broker goes bankrupt/insolvent, then someone has to pay off that $1.6 MILL notional. That's how otc derivatives work. LCTM, AIG, BSC, and Lehman proved that already. Lehman lost 91% on the value of their derivatives trades when everything was unwound. It would sure suck to see a 91% loss on $300 TRILL. It's not a regulated futures or options market. I've been studying derivatives for the past 12 years, I know something about them. One doesn't have to understand everything about markets to know that $300 TRILL in US banking derivatives is insane.
Why do we have or accept such a thing now called "systemic risk?" And nearly all of that comes from otc derivatives. As US citizens and taxpayers we are all now on the hook for the socialized losses of Too Big To Jail banks. And any notion contrary to such is ignorant of the recent laws that have been passed. It is what it is. And what it is....ain't good. Someone was on the hook for $10-$20 TRILL of losses in 2008. And someone will be on the hook for the next crisis. The fact that customers now stand behind banking derivative's payouts is troubling indeed. Please explain why that was done if it was not to transfer risk from the banks to taxpayers? And fwiw, no one on this forum (until today that is) has listed the otc derivatives at $4 QUAD notional.
<< <i>All of her gold and silver is modern bullion in one ounce coins. In a bank in N. Carolina.
She could sell and or ship to any one in the U.S. Just need a couple of reliable dealers?? >>
Well for trustworthiness and reliability and what she has APMEX is probably as good of a place as any. They publish their buy prices for most items on their website.
I have a local dealer (Phoenix, AZ) that I absolutely trust that would also handle this and give a fair offer: http://allamericangold.com/
<< <i>You guys harp over these astronomical numbers. $300 trillion, $4 quadrillion.... blah, blah, blah. Right now I can have exposure to $1.6 million worth of IBM for $2500. If my trade goes bad I lose $2500, not $1.6 million. Same on these crazy numbers touted by the doom and gloomers who dont understand markets. Customers are not on the hook for trillions of dollars. And any notion of such is ignorant..... >>
Who was "on the hook" for the '08 real estate CDS derivative blowup? Who made the bets and who paid the bill? Can it happen again on an even larger scale?
This is the threat of Wall St./TBTF contracts that are tied to the "value" of something. There is also a direct relationship between the seriousness of the threat and the amount of leverage involved. Hundreds of trillions is a lot of leverage - a lot of threat.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Will there be some event that triggers exercise of some derivatives? Absolutely. Will some financial institution fail? Absolutely. Will the world end? Nope. Will the USA lose its sovereignty? Nope. Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. Will gold increase in value vs other assets? Maybe. Will you and I die? Absolutely. So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control.
You are letting "them" win. THEY control you via fear. >>
Will the world end? The big banksters sure thought it was going to in 2008 with the collapse Lehman Bros. They were able to work their way out of that one, but I'm not convinced that similar maneuvers are going to work again.
<< <i>Will the US dollar fall into oblivion? Nope. >>
And you know this how? All previous great currencies of the world have thought the same thing. Oh that's right, it's different this time.
<< <i>So enjoy life and stop worrying about nonsense that you cannot control. >>
Or, prepare for the consequences or try to capitalize on it, which is the purpose of this thread. If you don't see the need or value in preparing, that's your call. One of us will be right.
Let's talk about that. When was the last time you took out a bet with $1,600,000 to $2,500 odds? We can reasonably assume that most of the contracts are much closer to the middle of the bell curve. What we know is that several major banks went bankrupt in 2008 because of these types of bad bets, and that we taxpayers are the ones paying for their bonuses (remember AIGs big bonuses AFTER they got bailed out?), vacations, retirements and "get-out-of-jail-free" cards. Why do you always shill for the banking system? Just askin'.
I knew it would happen.
Provident Metals - Delaware?
Apmex (American Precious Metals Exchange) in Oklahoma City
Silvertowne, in Winchester, Indiana
Scotsman Coin, in St. Louis
Modern Coin Mart
I've had no problems and was satisfied in my bullion-related dealings with all of the above.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>All of her gold and silver is modern bullion in one ounce coins. In a bank in N. Carolina.
She could sell and or ship to any one in the U.S. Just need a couple of reliable dealers?? >>
Y would she sell?, she has no heirs?...
She should never ship to any dealer anywhere...she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
Wow, just, wow... What fear, amazing...
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<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
Wow, just, wow... What fear, amazing... >>
I would not even consider driving through the southern states with >$10K in cash and/or bullion on me. Just the simplest of traffic stops and it could be gone. If you do go this route you better have some stout documentation with you such as invoices, etc. Just carrying large sums of cash with you automatically casts the shadow of "money laundering" upon you. And you will be assumed guilty until proven otherwise. Just my 2 cents.
These are not odds and if you truly understood derivatives you would know that which makes the second sentence "unreasonable".
You continue to look at markets as a casino. There are no odds. Your comprehension is jaded by your opinion.
Using the same ratio as above, but believe me the ratio on many derivatives is much greater, a $1 Trillion position can be controlled by about $1.5 billion. And yes, that is a lot of money and some banks could fail if the position went against them, just as happened in 2008. However, there would not be $300 trillion in losses, because that would mean ALL the banks fail. Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over".
Banks have failed since the first bank. Big deal. There wont be a catastrophic collapse of the global banking system.
BTW---In the example I gave, that $2500 IBM position is now worth $15,000.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
Wow, just, wow... What fear, amazing... >>
wow, just, wow... How naive, amazing...
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i> Just like there was no nuclear war between the US and Russia, there would be no mutual destruction among the banks. All would just say, "We can either all fail, or we'll just rip up these derivatives and do-over". >>
Then why was it necessary to recently put US taxpayers (via FDIC funds) on the hook for a bank's potential derivative losses? Here's Why.
". . . deposits are now “just part of commercial banks’ capital structure.” That means they can be “bailed in” or confiscated to save the megabanks from derivative bets gone wrong."
The other problem is that large derivative contracts also involve non-bank hedge funds who don't care if their win ruins a bank. There's a winning and a losing side to all derivative bets. The winner expects and demands to get paid - just like he did circa. 2008.
Who's gonna cover what the FDIC and depositor accounts will be unable to cover?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
No.
There's a winning and a losing side to all derivative bets. The winner expects and demands to get paid - just like he did circa. 2008.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
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<< <i>
<< <i>she can have someone drive her and do it personally if she has to...
Registered mail is much less risky. Civil forfeiture is being abused by lots of state and municipal law enforcement as a revenue stream now. I'd be extremely careful driving my stash to anywhere. >>
Wow, just, wow... What fear, amazing... >>
wow, just, wow... How naive, amazing... >>
Lol, derryb u live in fantasy land, afraid of da bogeyman...sad commentary...but so be it...
Registered mail good idea if must be used...