GOLD AND SILVER, ECONOMIC NEWS, COINS, 2016
GOLDSAINT
Posts: 2,148 ✭
Well we did not see the end of the U.S. financial system in 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 or 2015 maybe this year ???
At least the stock market is starting off to be interesting.
I guess all those doomsday bloggers are looking pretty dumb.
We start the year off with Gold at about $1,100 and silver at $14.00 down from last year.
Paper was the place to be again in 2015 with a strong dollar and a hot stock market.
2016
Ladies and Gentlemen here is our thread for the next round.
Lets do this thing!
Terry
LINK TO LAST THREADS
https://forums.collectors.com/messagepost.cfm?postaction=edit&catid=42&threadid=841689&messid=9820414&STARTPAGE=1
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=42&threadid=726004
At least the stock market is starting off to be interesting.
I guess all those doomsday bloggers are looking pretty dumb.
We start the year off with Gold at about $1,100 and silver at $14.00 down from last year.
Paper was the place to be again in 2015 with a strong dollar and a hot stock market.
2016
Ladies and Gentlemen here is our thread for the next round.
Lets do this thing!
Terry
LINK TO LAST THREADS
https://forums.collectors.com/messagepost.cfm?postaction=edit&catid=42&threadid=841689&messid=9820414&STARTPAGE=1
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=42&threadid=726004
0
Comments
GOLD: $1,566.40
SILVER: $27.86
PLATINUM: $1,397.00
PALLADIUM: $654.00
Link to article
Treasuries have been in a 30-year bull market, and the investment manager interviewed in the article thinks it will continue. An interesting fact to keep in mind next time you hear about how "long in the tooth" the 11-year PM bull has gotten.
<< <i>I thought Gold would do better than it did in 2011, but 11.56% is pretty good considering that the stock market did nothing, and most everything else did not even keep up with the governments reported inflation rates. >>
Gold was the winner in 2011, but the rest of the PM market took a hit.
Silver down 8.54% ytd
Platinum down...19%
Palladium down..18%
Rhodium down..40%+
My mutual fund was actually up by 12%
Gold and Silver
Gold and silver will continue to be the store of physical wealth that it has been. PM is likely the last of the physical assets that can be treated as a truely private investment, known only to the physical holder. Gold knows no master beyond he who holds it in his hand. The best thing about gold is that it is so thinly held that it will not gain a lot of interest by the gov and big money, there are much easier cows to cash. The majority of people will never have the financial freedom to accumulate metal but there will be some that see the metals as a real savings account, untouchable by others. Still, the privately held physical metal is unaccounted for by the pervasive financial information systems that divine our creditworthiness and create marketing strategies that aim to coax those frn's and digibuks from our accounts. Gold just sits there, immutable and undisturbed while the world spins at even greater speed...getchasum.
Economic News
A new world financial order will be formulated regardless of wishes of the "middle class" or occupiers or tea party. On one hand, we will see an even greater resistance from the users of goods and services to paying small additional fees such as banking fees and communication device charges but they will still pay stupid money for ever cooler techtechnology that becomes obsolete in 6 months. So, while the userbees are focusing on their self interested micro-strategies, the people that predate upon them with the new world view will push for laws, taxes, fees, and regulations that will hobble the workerbees into greater servitude to the financial bundlers. This means that 2012 may be the year that the IRA's are assaulted by the paperboys as govies stay busy trying to make a dollar out of 25 cents. Continued pandering of feel good apps and convenience/comfort market items will sap descretionary income from the middle class but at the same time, savings account balances will rise among the workers. Cannibal type activity as see in the fall of MF will become the norm instead of the headliner. Protect yourself, this ain't your fathers Oldsmobile. I greatly appreciate the links and economic news items and discussions that are posted here, thanks to all that contribute.
Coins
Coins are being melted at greater intensity. Ninety percent coinage is headed off into bars and commem gold is going to the refiners. Meanwhile there are modern mint issue finds that equal or best the old standbys such as the buff fractional set and the deep dish age's and there are others. There are still modern issues that make a good mark for themselves. The rarities seem to stay high or go higher while the comman stuff is still...common or worse yet, melted. The flipper stuff is...well, made for flippers. I'm looking for Walkers to be more sought after and as more are melted, they will be more sought out and likely the higher grades will become more expensive and the gray sheet will rule this arena but I'm look for activity here. The fractional age's seem like a good place to store raw wealth but they are really not numismatic, just well recognized gold that is very liquid and coins none the less. Coin flips conveniently hold 5-1/10 oz age's very nicely and they look cool too, specially when you have a few of them and spreading out a couple of rolls of walkers on the table will get interest from anybody, coin nerd or not. Got CASH?
Observation
A politically interesting note was a recent news item that talked about home terrrorism. It profiled people that hold cash, physical gold or firearms as they should be identified as potential security problems. Interesting divergance from the postgreatdepression strategy of not holding debt and saving cash with physical assets. Also an interesting departure from protecting your family and posessions with personal weapons, something we were encouraged to do at one time. The nice thing about numismatic coins is that they are considered to be just a hobby and not necessarily viewed as a threat to anything except their owners wallets. Life is good.
It has been quite a pleasure to read and contribute, for what it's worth, to this thread. Here's best wishes for a successful run at 2012 and for prosperity to all that visit here. It seems very appropriate to start a continuation thread now because '12 is going to be one for the books. Happy New Year.
We have yet to enter a true hyper inflationary stage both here and in Europe. If debt auctions go unsold then Volker's plane to sell debt rather than print cash will begin to crumble, and PM prices and other hard assets will begin to see substantial rises.
That, combined with the new law that allows indefinite detention without a trial or charges being brought - is a major problem, for everyone.
I knew it would happen.
Gold is at a 65 week moving average marker
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
i find him interesting
Gold and Reversals
to finally consider just tossing all of them into a big pile. Better to just buy PMs on deep dips when everyone hates them. With PMs running up for 3 yrs all
the analysts were mostly right. Now it's time to separate the men from the boys. Both sides can't be right.
And Armstrong is not the only long term gold bull who is short term bearish. That just shows he doesn't bother to read anyone else's stuff. I'd say the vast
majority of the gold analysts are currently short term bears and long term bulls. Armstrong has plenty of company.
roadrunner
I'd put roadrunner up against practically any analyst I happen to read, *almost* on par with Sinclair.
I knew it would happen.
hasn't Sinclair abandoned the strong Euro / weak dollar / $2300 gold?
it seemed that was his mantra a few years back
I knew it would happen.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
MA wrote a pretty convincing (to me) article about gold - he felt it a commodity, nothing more or less and he was pretty adament about gold does not = money
no one has the answer "how high" or timing "when", especially myself
thinks it's going to the moon. He did say that the bottom is now in. In the longer term he has said he agrees with Alf Fields and others who see $4500 or higher. And
he multiple times he's said that gold will reach a number that will balance a % of our sovereign debt. That number has increased from $1250 a number of years ago to
$7500 about a year ago. The current number is around $12,000. Armstrong sees this PM bull market peaking in the 2016-2021 period.
$1650-$1764 are Sinclair's current short term range before transitioning into that larger range above. Based on his superb calls this year, especially gold's summer bull run,
I wouldn't bet against him. As this market has gotten more volatile, his calls have only gotten better. He does forecast a much weaker dollar down the road. It hasn't come
in the original time frame he predicted. Technically, if the nation's whose currencies make up the USDX all devalue perfectly with the dollar, the index will remain constant....
while all those currencies depreciate against gold. The published number could stay in the .80 range forever....while the FRN heads to worthlessness. But I suspect we'll see
USDX in the 0.52 to .62 range that JS predicted. Still, it's a false target not anchored to anything real. The real anchors to judge the USDX/dollar are tangible assets.
Gold may not be technical money....but gold ultimately shadows the debt. Gold = Debt.
2012 - The Year of Living Dangerously
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This is one of the best and simplistic reads on otc derivatives that I've seen done. Most importantly, Rob Kirby discusses how those
$275 TRILL in US bank held interest rate contracts affect the yield curve, bond demand, and US dollar pricing. It's more than coincidence
that Pimco's dumping of all their treasuries in early 2011 was effectively neutralized by Morgan Stanley adding $14 TRILL in otc contracts.
For anyone not knowing a thing about D's, this is a good 10-15 min read to get you up to speed. Even more interesting is that over half of
the world's otc derivatives are denominated in Euros.
While I subscribe to their thinking 100%, I also view the current economic situation to be one where individuals have a unique opportunity to differentiate themselves from the rest of the pack and prosper immensely when the economy improves. Do not fall victim to irrational discouragement.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
Everyone needs to protect their wealth/assets now.
If I were to summarize the brief report in a single sentence it would be something like "you can't spend your way out of a recession that is rooted in excessive debt".
I also agree with your comment on "irrational discouragement". There are incredibly innovative people and companies out there; the "real economy" may well move forward in spite of a likely decade or more of awkward finance.
<< <i>Comments from my favorite economists
While I subscribe to their thinking 100%, I also view the current economic situation to be one where individuals have a unique opportunity to differentiate themselves from the rest of the pack and prosper immensely when the economy improves. Do not fall victim to irrational discouragement. >>
Hoisington, On the Money. I've followed their work for over 10 years now. Have you read Dr. Lacy Hunts " A Time to be Rich" read it years ago. Still a very good book.
ECRI's WLI dropped again for the second week now at -8.4 They still haven't reversed their recession call. They have a lot riding on that call, reputation wise.
<< <i>Derivative's history & summary
This is one of the best and simplistic reads on otc derivatives that I've seen done. Most importantly, Rob Kirby discusses how those
$275 TRILL in US bank held interest rate contracts affect the yield curve, bond demand, and US dollar pricing. It's more than coincidence
that Pimco's dumping of all their treasuries in early 2011 was effectively neutralized by Morgan Stanley adding $14 TRILL in otc contracts.
For anyone not knowing a thing about D's, this is a good 10-15 min read to get you up to speed. Even more interesting is that over half of
the world's otc derivatives are denominated in Euros. >>
Ms. Barnhardt states on her blog,
“It is absolutely amazing to me, and frankly awful, that these interviews I do are so popular. Most interviews or radio programs I do wind up being the most popular (or top-three) for their respective program or host. And we talked about my "Going Galt" letter being #6 for ZeroHedge yesterday. Don't think for a second that I relish in any of this. The truth is, I find it very, very disturbing, as should all of you, that I, relatively insignificant me, am apparently one of the only people in Western Civilization who has the stones to simply state the OBVIOUS OBJECTIVE TRUTH. I am a minor cultural phenomenon because I basically say that one plus one equals two, and I can say it clearly and directly without a bunch of "uhs" and "ums" and "you knows".
Really? So all a person need do in this culture to be some sort of a hero is be able to string three articulate sentences together which state the obvious? God help us.
I have many detractors who say, "Who the hell is this chick and why the hell do we care what she says?" Yep. I'm right there with you. Where are the billion-dollar fund managers (excepting perhaps Kyle Bass)? Where are the captains and titans of industry? Where are the so-called "leaders"? WHERE IS THE CLERGY??? I'm cynical, but SURELY there must be SOMEONE ELSE who has a brain in their head and a pair in the bag who can speak proper English above a mumble besides me. Anyone? Anyone? My 15 minutes are surely winding down. Someone else is going to have to step up here.”
I don't think anyone realizes just how morally and rationally bankrupt things have
become in the modern world. Today everything is a superstition founded on the
politically correct attitude or belief of the day. All true science is now geared to only
military application and even it is founded not on experiment so much as expediency.
Everyday there is more superstition and more belief in the omnipotence of man and/
or God. Truth has become as subjective as the words used to express it. People ac-
cept whatever is presented to them whether it's ideas, culture, or products.
Anyone telling obvious truths is either shouted down or shouted at like something
out of the Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Sometimes people just stop and stare.
There is grave question in my mind how long the world can function with everyone
letting someone else do his thinking or just accepting dogma rather than engaging
in reason. It is not getting better but progressively worse. Everyone's a specialist
and is focused on his own little piece of reality. Most people just don't see the pro-
blem because they just aren't looking.
Barret Capital Management accused of using client cash for its own purposes
Interest rates in Australia should tumble in the next year. The Aussie dollar may follow suit.
The quest to own rather than rent has contributed to surging household debt, which, as a proportion of disposable income, tripled over the past 20 years to 150.8 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30, according to central bank data. That compares with 133 percent in the U.S. at the height of the subprime- mortgage boom
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I warned about the bubble in Aussie real estate over a year ago. A home ownership rate of 70% and an average price of $327,000 pretty much assures disaster. Australia needs A LOT of rich immigrants--now.
Interest rates in Australia should tumble in the next year. The Aussie dollar may follow suit.
The quest to own rather than rent has contributed to surging household debt, which, as a proportion of disposable income, tripled over the past 20 years to 150.8 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30, according to central bank data. That compares with 133 percent in the U.S. at the height of the subprime- mortgage boom >>
So 3-4 years from now would be a good time to make my move to New Zealand?
<< <i>I warned about the bubble in Aussie real estate over a year ago. A home ownership rate of 70% and an average price of $327,000 pretty much assures disaster. Australia needs A LOT of rich immigrants--now.
Interest rates in Australia should tumble in the next year. The Aussie dollar may follow suit.
The quest to own rather than rent has contributed to surging household debt, which, as a proportion of disposable income, tripled over the past 20 years to 150.8 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30, according to central bank data. That compares with 133 percent in the U.S. at the height of the subprime- mortgage boom >>
Yes, but you also said (gloating I might add
FYI- Copper has been on fire the past two weeks. It ran into some heavy resistance today in the 200. MJ
copper
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>So 3-4 years from now would be a good time to make my move to New Zealand? >>
From what perspective? You don't have to buy a house right or convert your cash, although you will find things to be pricey.
<< <i>At present, the data strongly implies recession risk, though with less than 100% certainty. The problem is that with overvalued, overbought, overbullish market conditions, the loss implications for the market in the event of a blindside recession are far more hostile than the possible gains in the event of a recovery that is already anticipated. >>
I never say never.
Will be time to short it about another month.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Copper's death has been reported a number of times the past few years. Keeps on ticking though. Wouldn't be surprised if it eventually heads to double digits in the
next 5-10 yrs.
Keeping the labor participation rate low is one of the keys to the presidential election
The goals:
Keep students in school - or send older adults back to school - make those loans cheap
Get anyone over 50 with chronic illness on SS disability
Get more people on early SS at age 62
Keep inmates in jail
<< <i>FYI- Copper has been on fire the past two weeks. It ran into some heavy resistance today in the 200. MJ
Copper's death has been reported a number of times the past few years. Keeps on ticking though. Wouldn't be surprised if it eventually heads to double digits in the
next 5-10 yrs.
Keeping the labor participation rate low is one of the keys to the presidential election >>
It's been going up without a lot of participation from China recently. Interesting. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>FYI- Copper has been on fire the past two weeks. It ran into some heavy resistance today in the 200. MJ
Copper's death has been reported a number of times the past few years. Keeps on ticking though. Wouldn't be surprised if it eventually heads to double digits in the
next 5-10 yrs.
It's been going up without a lot of participation from China recently. Interesting. MJ >>
Um, boys, copper is the same price it was SIX years ago. Just sayin'.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>FYI- Copper has been on fire the past two weeks. It ran into some heavy resistance today in the 200. MJ
Copper's death has been reported a number of times the past few years. Keeps on ticking though. Wouldn't be surprised if it eventually heads to double digits in the
next 5-10 yrs.
It's been going up without a lot of participation from China recently. Interesting. MJ >>
Um, boys, copper is the same price it was SIX years ago. Just sayin'.
An even longer consolidation is only more bullish when it does pop. One can call it a 5-6 yr reverse H&S or a 3-4 yr cup w/handle. I know which direction I would bet on based
on QE to infinity....or at least to $1.1 Quad.
I didn't realize that the same BS in the BLS CPI is also used in the GDP. According to Mish approx 35% of GDP is hogwash due to hedonics and imputations. Who would have
thought that all homeowners are running a business paying rent to themselves, which then gets rolled into GDP. Checking accts are also added as part of GDP. Huh?
Willy takes aim at SLV, GDP, 8-10 MILL forecloseable homes hidden in the "shadow" banking inventory, Greek Debt vs. shipping disasters, as well as other topics this week.
Willy rides again
I dont doubt that copper can trade to $10. But in the last 6 years, 15 million Americans have died. I sure hope none of them were betting on higher copper prices.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Billy Joel - We Didn't Start The Fire 1989
Harry Truman, Doris Day, Red China, Johnnie Ray
South Pacific, Walter Winchell, Joe DiMaggio
Joe McCarthy, Richard Nixon, Studebaker, television
North Korea, South Korea, Marilyn Monroe
Rosenbergs, H-bomb, Sugar Ray, Panmunjom
Brando, "The King and I" and "The Catcher in the Rye"
Eisenhower, vaccine, England's got a new queen
Marciano, Liberace, Santayana goodbye
CHORUS
We didn't start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world's been turning
We didn't start the fire
No we didn't light it
But we tried to fight it
Joseph Stalin, Malenkov, Nasser aand Prokofiev
Rockefeller, Campanella, Communist Bloc
Roy hn, Juan Peron, Toscanini, dacron
Dien Bien Phu falls, "Rock Around the Clock"
Einstein, James Dean, Brooklyn's got a winning team
Davy Crockett, Peter Pan, Elvis Presley, Disneyland
Bardot, Budapest, Alabama, Krushchev
Princess Grace, "Peyton Place", trouble in the Suez
CHORUS
Little Rock, Pasternak, Mickey Mantle, Kerouac
Sputnik, Chou En-Lai, "Bridge on the River Kwai"
Lebanon, Charlse de Gaulle, California baseball
Starkweather, homicide, children of thalidomide
Buddy Holly, "Ben Hur", space monkey, Mafia
Hula hoops, Castro, Edsel is a no-go
U-2, Syngman Rhee, payola and Kennedy
Chubby Checker, "Psycho", Belgians in the Congo
CHORUS
Hemingway, Eichmann, "Stranger in a Strange Land"
Dylan, Berlin, Bay of Pigs invasion
"Lawrence of Arabia", British Beatlemania
Ole Miss, John Glenn, Liston beats Patterson
Pope Paul, Malcolm X, British politician sex
JFK, blown away, what else do I have to say
CHORUS
Birth control, Ho Chi Minh, Richard Nixon back again
Moonshot, Woodsto/ck/, Watergate, punk rock
Begin, Reagan, Palestine, terror on the airline
Ayatollah's in Iran, Russians in Afghanistan
"Wheel of Fortune", Sally Ride, heavy metal, suicide
Foreign debts, homeless vets, AIDS, crack, Bernie Goetz
Hypodermics on the shores, China's under martial law
Rock and roller cola wars, I can't take it anymore
CHORUS
We didn't start the fire
But when we are gone
Will it still burn on, and on, and on, and on...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 23, 2012, 5:57 PM (GMT+02:00)
India is the first buyer of Iranian oil to agree to pay for its purchases in gold instead of the US dollar, debkafile’s intelligence and Iranian sources report exclusively. Those sources expect China to follow suit. India and China take about one million barrels per day, or 40 percent of Iran’s total exports of 2.5 million bpd. Both are superpowers in terms of gold assets.
By trading in gold, New Delhi and Beijing enable Tehran to bypass the upcoming freeze on its central bank’s assets and the oil embargo which the European Union’s foreign ministers agreed to impose Monday, Jan. 23. The EU currently buys around 20 percent of Iran’s oil exports.
The vast sums involved in these transactions are expected, furthermore, to boost the price of gold and depress the value of the dollar on world markets.
Iran’s second largest customer after China, India purchases around $12 billion a year’s worth of Iranian crude, or about 12 percent of its consumption. Delhi is to execute its transactions, according to our sources, through two state-owned banks: the Calcutta-based UCO Bank, whose board of directors is made up of Indian government and Reserve Bank of India representatives; and Halk Bankasi (Peoples Bank), Turkey’s seventh largest bank which is owned by the government.
An Indian delegation visited Tehran last week to discuss payment options in view of the new sanctions. The two sides were reported to have agreed that payment for the oil purchased would be partly in yen and partly in rupees. The switch to gold was kept dark.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>We should counter by only accepting payment for American wheat and corn shipped to India in the form of Undocumented Enriched Uranium and the heads and hands of known terrorists. >>
So we don't want to trade in dollars either?
Box of 20
Box of 20