Redtiger, the biggest mistakes I've made in investing has been due to underestimating the American publics willingness to part with their money. All the big consumer plays--LULU, CMG, SBUX of the last few years are great examples. Americans love to spend money, and the world is very thankful.
Americans love to spend money because life is short, and what good does it do anyone to die rich and miserable with deprivation?
Had I spent the last 20 years living in my car and eating beans and rice while working my ass off and saving, and not having a house or family or any fun, I could have $10 million in the bank by now, and maybe die with $100 million.
It's not the choice I made.
Of course, the next thing someone will say is the polar opposite, "Oh, so everyone should borrow and spend money and die in debt?"
No, that's not what I'm saying at all, the world is not black and white with binary decisions. The differences of opinion are what make a market. Who's a Grey?
<< <i>Redtiger, the biggest mistakes I've made in investing has been due to underestimating the American publics willingness to part with their money. All the big consumer plays--LULU, CMG, SBUX of the last few years are great examples. Americans love to spend money, and the world is very thankful. >>
Plenty of companies have done well by saving consumers money too. Walmart, and Dell were two earlier examples, though Dell has fallen. Amazon has done very well, and the king is Google which gives away almost all of its products (and now Facebook too).
I have no problem with folks spending money. Life is short. Enjoy. Don't take good health for granted. It can go in an instant. Here is a story along those lines: I have a friend who is retired and has a nice pile of money. He is still relatively young. His wife used to ask about buying a new Lexus, and a new set of living room furniture, and going on more trips. My buddy had the money, but kept saying "how about we wait one more year, the old car still runs fine?" Well, next year didn't come for the wife, she died suddenly, without any warning or notice despite being the picture of a health. Boy, does he wish he had spent some more while they had time together.
Again, a balanced, healthy approach is what I advocate. I am not a fan of those spending $2000 on prom night for their kid when they have zero retirement savings, and zero set aside for college. Many of those put it on the credit card and end up paying more like $4000 after all the interest is added up--for one night out for the kid. Now, if someone has the money, like many of this forum do, go ahead, go for it, buy that $1000 prom dress for the kid, hire a Bentley limo. I would prefer that people make conscious choices, not herd following me-too decisions to one-up each other, but that too is part of human nature. Some other expenditures, such as a first used car, or a month-long trip to an exotic location, I would see as having more value and it might make more sense to me than $2000 for prom night. Oh well, I can't change the world, can't make the 50% of Americans that don't save a dime, start saving. Nor can I make the Doomsday-preppers living in bunkers come out and smell the roses.
Jefferson warned about this. The aim of ECB and The Fed is to completely make the world in debt to them. These are not your friends. They are vampires preying on the sovereign debt crisis. But alas, the use of their printing press will be their undoing or achilles heal. Greece is the first to fall.
gold is no longer a commodity, it is a currency. It's current trend is simply a result of more value being put on it than it's central bank created counterparts which are produced at no cost and with no limit.
Look for other commodities to become currency when they become more accepted for payment. This can only drive up the fiat price of the commodity. We will see the day that nations exchage wheat for oil.
All markets have a pullback eventually. The big question is if they are making loans to people that can't afford them? As long as people are capable of making the payments then their market should avoid collapse like the US. I get the impression that their RE market had a much more measured and stable increase than the parabolic blowoff seen here.
All markets have a pullback eventually. The big question is if they are making loans to people that can't afford them? As long as people are capable of making the payments then their market should avoid collapse like the US. I get the impression that their RE market had a much more measured and stable increase than the parabolic blowoff seen here. >>
If they are making loans to people who cant afford them then prices will collapse. If they are not making loans because prices are too high then RE will collapse. Same outcome.
Best cure for high prices is high prices. Always!!!
All markets have a pullback eventually. The big question is if they are making loans to people that can't afford them? As long as people are capable of making the payments then their market should avoid collapse like the US. I get the impression that their RE market had a much more measured and stable increase than the parabolic blowoff seen here. >>
It did PC.
Dave is right though. They had to lower rates. Regardless, they still pay 3.75%. Only like a million times more then the US , Japan or Europe. I can see them cutting all the way to 3%. I'm locked in at 4.25% for a few more months. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Did you see Germany's 2yr hit 0.085% yesterday? The Swiss 10yr is 0.71%. Talk about scared money!!!! Absolutely ZERO concern of inflation in Europe. >>
Very scared money. There is still talk of the Swiss charging money to keep funds in their banks. It's why gold still makes sense. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Jim Sinclair is usually so reserved....here's his latest roll.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Yes, the housing market is simply screwed.
Thank you very much Wall Street Banksters and your damned securitization of real estate loans.
There may be no downside on a regulations standpoint. There should be, but you can be sure Karma is unavoidable and will splatter you for a few billion years. Enjoy your money. You will not need it next time around nor can you use it as a wart toad. This includes your Bilderberg wild men who actually think you can decide who to come back as in your family, and forward transfer your wealth to them. You think all that security and the gatherings are for privacy of communication? In secrecy the place acts like a coven. A tad like the 36th degree. Please no nasty letters from our Scientology Brothers. Ron was a bloody genius.
PS: I thought Scientology had levels, not degrees... so it makes sense this is in reference to Masonry. Jim is indeed a jester. LOL
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>Could take a full generation for housing to recoup. >>
All bubbles take about a generation to recoup losses.
Sounds like Mr. Sinclair was foreclosed upon? >>
Who knows. He doesn't sound like the person who would (or would even need to) finance his properties.
However, that has never stopped the banksters, now has it?
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< Could take a full generation for housing to recoup. >>
what a wonderful gift from this generation of homeowners to the next,
or to younger families in starter homes hoping to someday upgrade..
What could be better for first or second-time home buyers than a reset of prices that looked to be climbing out of sight?
Those buying at the top of any asset bubble and forced to sell after it pops always lose out... those who are looking to buy and hold good assets over a longer term should welcome "sale prices" for new purchases.
I only had time to read the beginning page of that article the other day, but it's Sinclair all the way. I think he's been doing ordinary people a valuable service.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I found pages 7 and 8 the most interesting as he talks about QE, derivatives, SWIFT, recovery, etc. Pretty hard to argue with any of his logic. >>
I read the whole interview and learned a TON. The interviewer either had a clue, or they were setup questions (doesn't matter), because it flowed so well. Highly recommend the 15 minutes and linked. Thanks again RR.
Sinclair skeptics will be surprised at his take on 2008, Fed actions, gold function, derivatives ,etc. Interesting if his predictions of 'dollar bloc' // 'yuan bloc' // 'euro bloc' come true, but sure looks like it's heading that way already. With Iran out of SWIFT, we'll see what India does in all this. Amazing, MACRO perspective.
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
<< <i><< Could take a full generation for housing to recoup. >>
what a wonderful gift from this generation of homeowners to the next,
or to younger families in starter homes hoping to someday upgrade..
What could be better for first or second-time home buyers than a reset of prices that looked to be climbing out of sight?
Those buying at the top of any asset bubble and forced to sell after it pops always lose out... those who are looking to buy and hold good assets over a longer term should welcome "sale prices" for new purchases. >>
gotta have a job before you can buy a house at any price. loss of jobs cancels out the gift of reduced housing prices.
"what a wonderful gift from this generation of homeowners to the next, or to younger families in starter homes hoping to someday upgrade.."
Homeownership in the US: It's not all doom and gloom but it isn't particularly rosy either but I guess we all knew that. while doing a little topic research, there were some items that stood out. One item, the actual number of people that own their own home...nope, not found; lots of percentages of this and that ethnic group or this and that age group but actual number of private owners, nope.
It appears that about 40% of those under 35 own their homes while about 80% of those over 65 own their own homes so that number doesn't look particularly strange. Home ownership is reported at 66.9% for all groups and that seems to be pretty high considering that 49% don't pay federal taxes so that seems curious but I'm sure there is an explanation for that little anomaly somewhere. Interesting how much study and stats is devoted to ethinc groups (by %) owning homes, interesting because it's such a well studied topic...must be a lot of lliberal arts grad students that are grinding out their thesis on related items...good luck with that.
It appears that investor folks have bought and are buying many of the houses that were lost and have floated to the surface. Most of the houses that are getting sucked up are good homes, in decent neighborhoods with decent schools, access to healthcare, goods and services. Those houses are then being rented to the 30 somethings. I know that real estate investing has become the sport of choice for the retirees, they are on it like a rash; they can't sell them because of the depressed market but they can rent the bejeezus out of them and there is no shortage of takers.
The homes in the depressed neighborhoods are just rotting, no one wants anything to do with them except use the for fodder for news stories about food deserts and schadenfuede. So, it's not all bad. The bad stuff will disappear, the good stuff will be purchased and rented to the 30 somethings, a few will be bought by actual homeowners looking to upgrade and some will even be bought by first time owners...that can afford 10% down and can make their payments even if they have to work a cube farm to do it. It does appear that the irrational exhuberance has subsided; the money has been counted and parcelled out to the players, the victims seem mostly quiet and helpless, life goes on...admitting no evidence of any wrongdoing. On to the next gen.
Home affordability is at the the highest levels in decades. Anyone who can afford to buy and is looking will be a fool not to take advantage of these relatively record low prices.
And since many of the doom and gloomers are predicting inflation, RE offers a fantastic hedge.
Dont listen to the RE is dead crowd. They are dead wrong.
<< <i>Home affordability is at the the highest levels in decades. Anyone who can afford to buy and is looking will be a fool not to take advantage of these relatively record low prices.
And since many of the doom and gloomers are predicting inflation, RE offers a fantastic hedge.
Dont listen to the RE is dead crowd. They are dead wrong. >>
True enough. I am at the leading edge of the real estate market in Phoenix. I believe we are a few years ahead of the rest of the nation as we were one of the first markets to collapse. Inventory levels are at less than 1 month supply for under $200k homes, and probably even higher. Don't even try to buy in this market if you don't have cash. Personally I would buy with cash and then finance at 4% to get the cash back out. Median and Mean pricing figures have rebounded from their bottoms. Homes I sold and closed on in December have probably made 20% right now, but that's only because we found a great deal at the time and the inventory has disappeared since then. I'm not sure this will continue either, but with no inventory and all of the cash buyers out there it is quite likely. You could buy anything and cash-flow it nicely and get returns that are probably safer and much higher than any bank or mutual fund. No wonder the retirees are investing in RE.
To add to PC's insight, its not just retirees that are buying, but foreigners. RE is the USA is the cheapest on the PLANET. Our dollar is weak relative to the Euro, YEN, Aussie$, Cando, Pound and these people are stampeeding to the USA to take advantage of a tremendous opportunity. These people are amazing at what they can buy in the USA vs their home country.
"The current decoupling of precious metals and equities combined with an unsustainable recovery provides insight into the future. With equities nearing major resistance and precious metals emerging from an important low, it is obvious which asset class is in position to benefit from disappointing economic data and which asset class could enter a mild cyclical bear market."
To add to my previous post, here's a blurb I got today about Maricopa County which is the greater Phoenix area. Again, I believe the Phoenix market is unique and this does not apply to other markets in the US:
May 1 - In Maricopa County, the number of residential properties that reverted to the beneficiary through a recorded trustee deed in April 2012 was 751. This was the lowest number since July 2007. 604 were single family homes. The number of residential properties purchased by third parties at the trustee sale was 961. This was the lowest number since December 2010 (which was during the Bank of America moratorium). 799 were single family homes. Although third parties now dominate the trustee sales, taking 56% of the residential properties auctioned, the trustee sale is clearly in decline as a significant source of residential real estate. However foreclosure notices (notices of trustee sale) remained at a fairly constant level over the last 3 months. This indicates that short sales will survive as a major supply channel of residential real estate for a considerably longer time than foreclosure auctions. Because short sales generally take longer to complete than foreclosures, the number of homes in the foreclosure process has stabilized and even increased over the last month.
April 28 - Only 1 working day left in April as far as foreclosures are concerned. We can see that the number of new notices of trustee sale will be almost exactly the same as in March. Since March had 1 extra working day this actually represents a slight (but not significant) increase in the rate of notices. However trustee deeds are still falling and April's total will be the lowest since December 2007 and 62% below April 2011. This supports the view that lenders increasingly favor short sales as the means to resolve loan delinquencies and REOs are an endangered species. This is bad news for buyers at trustee sales as their supply is starting to dry up. The sustained rate of notices (although still well down from the peaks of 2009 and 2010) suggests that lenders are quickly eating into the delinquent loan backlog and we would therefore expect LPS to report a fall in the number of delinquent loans in Arizona that are not yet in foreclosure over the next several months. In their report for February LPS reported 6.6% of Arizona first position home loans were 30 days or more late but had not entered foreclosure, down from 12.4% in February 2010. A normal percentage would be around 4.5%. When it has fallen from 6.6% to 4.5% the "shadow inventory" flood mythology can be officially declared dead. Since we already know the pool of lender owned homes is small and pending foreclosures are dramatically down from the levels of 2009. anyone who still thinks the mythical shadow inventory is going to resolve the current supply shortage is going to be very disappointed.
"The current decoupling of precious metals and equities combined with an unsustainable recovery provides insight into the future. With equities nearing major resistance and precious metals emerging from an important low, it is obvious which asset class is in position to benefit from disappointing economic data and which asset class could enter a mild cyclical bear market." >>
Cr@ppy jobs number. Market at first glance is a stalemate. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Don't we need more jobs than what was just reported just to keep up? How, once again this month, do we get way less than what's needed to sustain levels, yet they drop the unemployment number conveniently and gloss over another 350k who just don't count anymore? Tired of this media/DC B.S. says me.
<< <i> 1) Don't we need more jobs than what was just reported just to keep up?
2)How, once again this month, do we get less than what's needed to sustain levels, yet they drop the unemployment number?
3) B.S. says me. >>
1) Yes. 200K is needed. Perhaps more. Some economists say 250K
2) 350,000 workers conviently dropped out of the job pool. It also doesn't account for the underemployed
3) of course
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Participation rate has been declining since 2001---which is when the first baby boomers turned 55 and reached corporate or union retirement ages? Coincidence? Participation rate will continue to drop for another decade as more boomers retire.
Keep in mind that the encumbant party will do everything they can to paint a rosy picture until elections and the challenging party will do everything they can to sabatoge the economic picture in hopes for a win. Official numbers and gas prices are no exception. Perceived state of the economy will be a big factor in the election. Hopefully we will have a truer picture of the economy after the election and I'm afraid it won't be pretty.
<< <i>Perceived state of the economy will be a big factor in the election. Hopefully we will have a truer picture of the economy after the election and I'm afraid it won't be pretty. >>
They will definitely be painting a pretty picture until then. But eventually the truth will have to come out. You'd think the fact alone that the US bought 61% of all debt it issued last year would be enough,.. Just wait until 2012 numbers come out, because that's not going to get any better. That's also probably about the time congress will need to pass another debt ceiling increase.
<< <i>The unemployment situation now off the chart:
>>
That chart simply shows and aging population. Notice how it increases even during strong economic times when the US was considered to be at full employment. Thank modern medicine for that chart.
Someone should do a graph or chart of the rate of increase over time in the number of scary, misleading, and statistically oversimplified graphs and charts, and then imply that the increasing number of such graphs and charts is actually causing the world's problems, because of simple correlation.
<< <i>Someone should do a graph or chart of the rate of increase over time in the number of scary, misleading, and statistically oversimplified graphs and charts, and then imply that the increasing number of such graphs and charts is actually causing the world's problems, because of simple correlation. >>
<< <i>equities down, metals up. Things are getting back to normal. >>
Equities down, metals down. NOW its back to normal.
Another $20 drop in gold and it gets ugly fast (for the bulls). >>
Metals backup again. Typing fast before it changes
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>That chart simply shows and aging population.
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be. >>
Aging population is only one piece of the chart's data.
Comments
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Had I spent the last 20 years living in my car and eating beans and rice while working my ass off and saving, and not having a house or family or any fun, I could have $10 million in the bank by now, and maybe die with $100 million.
It's not the choice I made.
Of course, the next thing someone will say is the polar opposite, "Oh, so everyone should borrow and spend money and die in debt?"
No, that's not what I'm saying at all, the world is not black and white with binary decisions. The differences of opinion are what make a market. Who's a Grey?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Redtiger, the biggest mistakes I've made in investing has been due to underestimating the American publics willingness to part with their money. All the big consumer plays--LULU, CMG, SBUX of the last few years are great examples. Americans love to spend money, and the world is very thankful. >>
Plenty of companies have done well by saving consumers money too. Walmart, and Dell were two earlier examples, though Dell has fallen. Amazon has done very well, and the king is Google which gives away almost all of its products (and now Facebook too).
I have no problem with folks spending money. Life is short. Enjoy. Don't take good health for granted. It can go in an instant. Here is a story along those lines: I have a friend who is retired and has a nice pile of money. He is still relatively young. His wife used to ask about buying a new Lexus, and a new set of living room furniture, and going on more trips. My buddy had the money, but kept saying "how about we wait one more year, the old car still runs fine?" Well, next year didn't come for the wife, she died suddenly, without any warning or notice despite being the picture of a health. Boy, does he wish he had spent some more while they had time together.
Again, a balanced, healthy approach is what I advocate. I am not a fan of those spending $2000 on prom night for their kid when they have zero retirement savings, and zero set aside for college. Many of those put it on the credit card and end up paying more like $4000 after all the interest is added up--for one night out for the kid. Now, if someone has the money, like many of this forum do, go ahead, go for it, buy that $1000 prom dress for the kid, hire a Bentley limo. I would prefer that people make conscious choices, not herd following me-too decisions to one-up each other, but that too is part of human nature. Some other expenditures, such as a first used car, or a month-long trip to an exotic location, I would see as having more value and it might make more sense to me than $2000 for prom night. Oh well, I can't change the world, can't make the 50% of Americans that don't save a dime, start saving. Nor can I make the Doomsday-preppers living in bunkers come out and smell the roses.
Box of 20
Bingo!
I knew it would happen.
Look for other commodities to become currency when they become more accepted for payment. This can only drive up the fiat price of the commodity. We will see the day that nations exchage wheat for oil.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Yeah, but you can't eat oil.
<< <i>We will see the day that nations exchage wheat for oil.
Yeah, but you can't eat oil.
And you can't burn gold, but that doesn't stop it from being traded for oil.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I found pages 7 and 8 the most interesting as he talks about QE, derivatives, SWIFT, recovery, etc. Pretty hard to argue with any of his logic.
Lower rates
This is what happens when home values are 8x income. Lots more downside.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Australia finally acknowledges their inverted yield curve and crashing real estate----lowers rates.
This is what happens when home values are 8x income. Lots more downside. >>
All markets have a pullback eventually. The big question is if they are making loans to people that can't afford them? As long as people are capable of making the payments then their market should avoid collapse like the US. I get the impression that their RE market had a much more measured and stable increase than the parabolic blowoff seen here.
<< <i>
<< <i>Australia finally acknowledges their inverted yield curve and crashing real estate----lowers rates.
This is what happens when home values are 8x income. Lots more downside. >>
All markets have a pullback eventually. The big question is if they are making loans to people that can't afford them? As long as people are capable of making the payments then their market should avoid collapse like the US. I get the impression that their RE market had a much more measured and stable increase than the parabolic blowoff seen here. >>
Go to about the middle of this article written about 5 months ago where it discusses affordability. 20% increase year over year increase last year isnt measured and stable. Sounds more like a blowoff top.
If they are making loans to people who cant afford them then prices will collapse. If they are not making loans because prices are too high then RE will collapse. Same outcome.
Best cure for high prices is high prices. Always!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Australia finally acknowledges their inverted yield curve and crashing real estate----lowers rates.
This is what happens when home values are 8x income. Lots more downside. >>
All markets have a pullback eventually. The big question is if they are making loans to people that can't afford them? As long as people are capable of making the payments then their market should avoid collapse like the US. I get the impression that their RE market had a much more measured and stable increase than the parabolic blowoff seen here. >>
It did PC.
Dave is right though. They had to lower rates. Regardless, they still pay 3.75%. Only like a million times more then the US , Japan or Europe. I can see them cutting all the way to 3%. I'm locked in at 4.25% for a few more months. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Did you see Germany's 2yr hit 0.085% yesterday? The Swiss 10yr is 0.71%. Talk about scared money!!!! Absolutely ZERO concern of inflation in Europe. >>
Very scared money. There is still talk of the Swiss charging money to keep funds in their banks. It's why gold still makes sense. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Yes, the housing market is simply screwed.
Thank you very much Wall Street Banksters and your damned securitization of real estate loans.
There may be no downside on a regulations standpoint. There should be, but you can be sure Karma is unavoidable and will splatter you for a few billion years. Enjoy your money. You will not need it next time around nor can you use it as a wart toad. This includes your Bilderberg wild men who actually think you can decide who to come back as in your family, and forward transfer your wealth to them. You think all that security and the gatherings are for privacy of communication? In secrecy the place acts like a coven. A tad like the 36th degree. Please no nasty letters from our Scientology Brothers. Ron was a bloody genius.
PS: I thought Scientology had levels, not degrees... so it makes sense this is in reference to Masonry. Jim is indeed a jester. LOL
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Box of 20
<< <i>Could take a full generation for housing to recoup. >>
All bubbles take about a generation to recoup losses.
Sounds like Mr. Sinclair was foreclosed upon?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Could take a full generation for housing to recoup. >>
All bubbles take about a generation to recoup losses.
Sounds like Mr. Sinclair was foreclosed upon? >>
Who knows. He doesn't sound like the person who would (or would even need to) finance his properties.
However, that has never stopped the banksters, now has it?
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
what a wonderful gift from this generation of homeowners to the next,
or to younger families in starter homes hoping to someday upgrade..
What could be better for first or second-time home buyers than a reset of prices that looked to be climbing out of sight?
Those buying at the top of any asset bubble and forced to sell after it pops always lose out... those who are looking to buy and hold good assets over a longer term should welcome "sale prices" for new purchases.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Very interesting article on the views of Jim Sinclair
I found pages 7 and 8 the most interesting as he talks about QE, derivatives, SWIFT, recovery, etc. Pretty hard to argue with any of his logic. >>
I read the whole interview and learned a TON. The interviewer either had a clue, or they were setup questions (doesn't matter), because it flowed so well. Highly recommend the 15 minutes and linked. Thanks again RR.
Sinclair skeptics will be surprised at his take on 2008, Fed actions, gold function, derivatives ,etc. Interesting if his predictions of 'dollar bloc' // 'yuan bloc' // 'euro bloc' come true, but sure looks like it's heading that way already. With Iran out of SWIFT, we'll see what India does in all this. Amazing, MACRO perspective.
<< <i><< Could take a full generation for housing to recoup. >>
what a wonderful gift from this generation of homeowners to the next,
or to younger families in starter homes hoping to someday upgrade..
What could be better for first or second-time home buyers than a reset of prices that looked to be climbing out of sight?
Those buying at the top of any asset bubble and forced to sell after it pops always lose out... those who are looking to buy and hold good assets over a longer term should welcome "sale prices" for new purchases. >>
gotta have a job before you can buy a house at any price. loss of jobs cancels out the gift of reduced housing prices.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
or to younger families in starter homes hoping to someday upgrade.."
Homeownership in the US: It's not all doom and gloom but it isn't particularly rosy either but I guess we all knew that. while doing a little topic research, there were some items that stood out. One item, the actual number of people that own their own home...nope, not found; lots of percentages of this and that ethnic group or this and that age group but actual number of private owners, nope.
It appears that about 40% of those under 35 own their homes while about 80% of those over 65 own their own homes so that number doesn't look particularly strange. Home ownership is reported at 66.9% for all groups and that seems to be pretty high considering that 49% don't pay federal taxes so that seems curious but I'm sure there is an explanation for that little anomaly somewhere. Interesting how much study and stats is devoted to ethinc groups (by %) owning homes, interesting because it's such a well studied topic...must be a lot of lliberal arts grad students that are grinding out their thesis on related items...good luck with that.
It appears that investor folks have bought and are buying many of the houses that were lost and have floated to the surface. Most of the houses that are getting sucked up are good homes, in decent neighborhoods with decent schools, access to healthcare, goods and services. Those houses are then being rented to the 30 somethings. I know that real estate investing has become the sport of choice for the retirees, they are on it like a rash; they can't sell them because of the depressed market but they can rent the bejeezus out of them and there is no shortage of takers.
The homes in the depressed neighborhoods are just rotting, no one wants anything to do with them except use the for fodder for news stories about food deserts and schadenfuede. So, it's not all bad. The bad stuff will disappear, the good stuff will be purchased and rented to the 30 somethings, a few will be bought by actual homeowners looking to upgrade and some will even be bought by first time owners...that can afford 10% down and can make their payments even if they have to work a cube farm to do it. It does appear that the irrational exhuberance has subsided; the money has been counted and parcelled out to the players, the victims seem mostly quiet and helpless, life goes on...admitting no evidence of any wrongdoing. On to the next gen.
And since many of the doom and gloomers are predicting inflation, RE offers a fantastic hedge.
Dont listen to the RE is dead crowd. They are dead wrong.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Home affordability is at the the highest levels in decades. Anyone who can afford to buy and is looking will be a fool not to take advantage of these relatively record low prices.
And since many of the doom and gloomers are predicting inflation, RE offers a fantastic hedge.
Dont listen to the RE is dead crowd. They are dead wrong. >>
True enough. I am at the leading edge of the real estate market in Phoenix. I believe we are a few years ahead of the rest of the nation as we were one of the first markets to collapse. Inventory levels are at less than 1 month supply for under $200k homes, and probably even higher. Don't even try to buy in this market if you don't have cash. Personally I would buy with cash and then finance at 4% to get the cash back out. Median and Mean pricing figures have rebounded from their bottoms. Homes I sold and closed on in December have probably made 20% right now, but that's only because we found a great deal at the time and the inventory has disappeared since then. I'm not sure this will continue either, but with no inventory and all of the cash buyers out there it is quite likely. You could buy anything and cash-flow it nicely and get returns that are probably safer and much higher than any bank or mutual fund. No wonder the retirees are investing in RE.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"The current decoupling of precious metals and equities combined with an unsustainable recovery provides insight into the future. With equities nearing major resistance and precious metals emerging from an important low, it is obvious which asset class is in position to benefit from disappointing economic data and which asset class could enter a mild cyclical bear market."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
May 1 - In Maricopa County, the number of residential properties that reverted to the beneficiary through a recorded trustee deed in April 2012 was 751. This was the lowest number since July 2007. 604 were single family homes. The number of residential properties purchased by third parties at the trustee sale was 961. This was the lowest number since December 2010 (which was during the Bank of America moratorium). 799 were single family homes. Although third parties now dominate the trustee sales, taking 56% of the residential properties auctioned, the trustee sale is clearly in decline as a significant source of residential real estate. However foreclosure notices (notices of trustee sale) remained at a fairly constant level over the last 3 months. This indicates that short sales will survive as a major supply channel of residential real estate for a considerably longer time than foreclosure auctions. Because short sales generally take longer to complete than foreclosures, the number of homes in the foreclosure process has stabilized and even increased over the last month.
April 28 - Only 1 working day left in April as far as foreclosures are concerned. We can see that the number of new notices of trustee sale will be almost exactly the same as in March. Since March had 1 extra working day this actually represents a slight (but not significant) increase in the rate of notices. However trustee deeds are still falling and April's total will be the lowest since December 2007 and 62% below April 2011. This supports the view that lenders increasingly favor short sales as the means to resolve loan delinquencies and REOs are an endangered species. This is bad news for buyers at trustee sales as their supply is starting to dry up. The sustained rate of notices (although still well down from the peaks of 2009 and 2010) suggests that lenders are quickly eating into the delinquent loan backlog and we would therefore expect LPS to report a fall in the number of delinquent loans in Arizona that are not yet in foreclosure over the next several months. In their report for February LPS reported 6.6% of Arizona first position home loans were 30 days or more late but had not entered foreclosure, down from 12.4% in February 2010. A normal percentage would be around 4.5%. When it has fallen from 6.6% to 4.5% the "shadow inventory" flood mythology can be officially declared dead. Since we already know the pool of lender owned homes is small and pending foreclosures are dramatically down from the levels of 2009. anyone who still thinks the mythical shadow inventory is going to resolve the current supply shortage is going to be very disappointed.
<< <i>A Weak Economy Remains Gold's Best Friend
"The current decoupling of precious metals and equities combined with an unsustainable recovery provides insight into the future. With equities nearing major resistance and precious metals emerging from an important low, it is obvious which asset class is in position to benefit from disappointing economic data and which asset class could enter a mild cyclical bear market." >>
Cr@ppy jobs number. Market at first glance is a stalemate. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i> 1) Don't we need more jobs than what was just reported just to keep up?
2)How, once again this month, do we get less than what's needed to sustain levels, yet they drop the unemployment number?
3) B.S. says me. >>
1) Yes. 200K is needed. Perhaps more. Some economists say 250K
2) 350,000 workers conviently dropped out of the job pool. It also doesn't account for the underemployed
3) of course
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>
3) B.S. says me. >>
3) of course
MJ >>
The sheeple are getting more blind by the month.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>Perceived state of the economy will be a big factor in the election. Hopefully we will have a truer picture of the economy after the election and I'm afraid it won't be pretty. >>
They will definitely be painting a pretty picture until then. But eventually the truth will have to come out. You'd think the fact alone that the US bought 61% of all debt it issued last year would be enough,.. Just wait until 2012 numbers come out, because that's not going to get any better. That's also probably about the time congress will need to pass another debt ceiling increase.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>The unemployment situation now off the chart:
That chart simply shows and aging population. Notice how it increases even during strong economic times when the US was considered to be at full employment. Thank modern medicine for that chart.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The unemployment situation now off the chart: >>
Whoever created the chart just needs to adjust the axis.
and then imply that the increasing number of such graphs and charts is actually causing the world's problems, because of simple correlation.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>equities down, metals up. Things are getting back to normal. >>
Equities down, metals down. NOW its back to normal.
Another $20 drop in gold and it gets ugly fast (for the bulls).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Someone should do a graph or chart of the rate of increase over time in the number of scary, misleading, and statistically oversimplified graphs and charts,
and then imply that the increasing number of such graphs and charts is actually causing the world's problems, because of simple correlation. >>
Dept. of Labor data is continuously misleading.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>
<< <i>equities down, metals up. Things are getting back to normal. >>
Equities down, metals down. NOW its back to normal.
Another $20 drop in gold and it gets ugly fast (for the bulls). >>
Metals backup again. Typing fast before it changes
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>That chart simply shows and aging population.
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be. >>
Aging population is only one piece of the chart's data.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The overall population is increasing, too.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry