<< <i>That's with the chief personally endorsing the car and saying he is going to buy one when he leaves office. >>
i 'd say almost anything if it was a wee bit short of five years down the road too!
"Asian demand is a bigger overall factor for gold than the Fed, the U.S. deficit, or the Eurozone adventures."
i can see that but do you think that can change in a couple of years, regardless of continued Asian demand? paper still drives and seems it will drive the POG for some time.
Are we in an inflationary or deflationary environment? Interesting intermarket analysis and a question posed at the end that should be seriously considered.
Stupid filters. You much delete the * from the link. Copy and paste without the *.
<< <i>Are we in an inflationary or deflationary environment? Interesting intermarket analysis and a question posed at the end that should be seriously considered.
Stupid filters. You much delete the * from the link. Copy and paste without the *.
<< <i>Are we in an inflationary or deflationary environment? Interesting intermarket analysis and a question posed at the end that should be seriously considered.
Stupid filters. You much delete the * from the link. Copy and paste without the *.
This echos another piece with a similar bent: the near term future collapse of the retailers that have expanded the number of stores and received declining revenues per store. Looks good on paper because retail income is continuing upward as they add more locations but the income per location continues to decline. All in the face of higher energy costs and a consumer that is eating next seasons seed stock. The next season will come.
Our current state of evolution is enviable. We can go out to any major urbanized area and buy anything we need and if we can't get it there, we can just go online. I was stunned this weekend as I burned off a couple of bens at the Lowes...I bought tree spikes, seeds, mosquito bait for my zapper, tomato cages, mulch, compost, some bedding plants, and a few other non-ag items. I reflected on how farmers of the 50's would have been busy for weeks getting all that together for his spring planting and I did it in about a half an hour less than 10 minutes from my home;' it's just so easy. The remarkable thing is that you can do this in any product area; bedding, kitchen, patio, anything you want, just flick your card through the little slot and walk out with more stuff in 30 minutes than someone from a previous generation could have gathered in a few weeks. It is just so easy, and the buks flow like water.
We all know the credit card traps have been baited and set and that there is a collusive effort to drain digibuks from the cube farmers and anyone with a govt check. Every one of those offering credit and expanding retail are betting on growth projections, paying big bonuses to the ceo's for figuring out ways to get even more money even faster, getting more money from those that are barely keeping the car note current, betting that they can get water from a rock.
Nice piece with a lot of good research but those that need to see it will never get a glimpse. "You know something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones." Just who was that Darwin guy anyway and who cares?
<< <i>Our current state of evolution is enviable. We can go out to any major urbanized area and buy anything we need and if we can't get it there, we can just go online. I was stunned this weekend as I burned off a couple of bens at the Lowes...I bought tree spikes, seeds, mosquito bait for my zapper, tomato cages, mulch, compost, some bedding plants, and a few other non-ag items. I reflected on how farmers of the 50's would have been busy for weeks getting all that together for his spring planting and I did it in about a half an hour less than 10 minutes from my home;' it's just so easy. The remarkable thing is that you can do this in any product area; bedding, kitchen, patio, anything you want, just flick your card through the little slot and walk out with more stuff in 30 minutes than someone from a previous generation could have gathered in a few weeks. It is just so easy, and the buks flow like water. >>
What's amazing is that in many of the places I travel for work, such as France and Brazil, shopping is NOT the same. Granted, I'm only visiting the area and I don't live there so I may not know all of the places, but basically in those places if you find it you have to buy it and there aren't a lot of choices. Less than a half mile away I have a Lowes and a Home Depot across the street from each other. We are lucky here in the US to have all of these stores everywhere, but I wonder sometimes how long it can last.
The USA has the best demographics of any developed country.
Yes! This is an exceptionally important point. Over the next 50 years, the US population will show healthy growth from about 300 million to 400 million, while other countries struggle with the impact of low birth rates and aging populations.
Gosh, I wish I was fortunate enough to hold some Greek bonds and be concerned about this, I'd be so rich I could easily absorb a 30% haircut on those fancy Greek national bonds.
Does anyone on here hold, or ever held, Greek bonds? Ever know someone who got burned investing in Greek bonds? Or is this just Abstract Crisis Du Jour?
I think that this is old news and has already been widely-anticipated. The larger issue was included in another thread, and that is the issue that no default is being declared, which serves to shield the US banks which have significant exposure to Greek debt. If a default were to be declared outright, the US banks would have to cover the losses of anyone who hedged against a Greek Bond default with Credit Default Swaps issued by those banks.
But hey, since no default was declared, the banks don't lose a thing.
Regarding bondholders - they screwed GM bondholders the same way, only the money went as political payback into union retirements instead of into banking institutions (in direct violation of bankruptcy law). Not a good time to be a bondholder. US Treasuries have some vulnerability as well, as more dollars are created to service the ballooning debt load.
No biggie.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>The USA has the best demographics of any developed country.
Yes! This is an exceptionally important point. Over the next 50 years, the US population will show healthy growth from about 300 million to 400 million, while other countries struggle with the impact of low birth rates and aging populations. >>
100 million growth is not so good without 100 million more jobs. Population numbers can be a liability as easily as they can be an asset, especially in an enviornment of dwindling natural resources.
<< <i>Gosh, I wish I was fortunate enough to hold some Greek bonds and be concerned about this, I'd be so rich I could easily absorb a 30% haircut on those fancy Greek national bonds.
Does anyone on here hold, or ever held, Greek bonds? Ever know someone who got burned investing in Greek bonds? Or is this just Abstract Crisis Du Jour? >>
Just because it doesn't take money directly out of your pocket does not mean it can't affect markets that can take money directly out of your pocket. While the little guy didn't get a 30% haircut on Greek bond losses, he's sure to get a trim from the fallout - if he's Greek it probably amounts to more than a 30% trim.
<< <i>The USA has the best demographics of any developed country.
Yes! This is an exceptionally important point. Over the next 50 years, the US population will show healthy growth from about 300 million to 400 million, while other countries struggle with the impact of low birth rates and aging populations. >>
The USA, with all it's problems, is still the best game in town.
Just wait until the day that US bondholders have to take a haircut... Oh yes, that day will come.
They already turned bankruptcy law upside down by haircutting bondholders. We're talking established law here.
If decades of legal precedent can be trashed overnight, what rules actually apply? It's a "fundamental change". You bet it is. Who in their right mind would buy into bonds in the US automotive industry now? Or any bonds, for that matter?
Seriously.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The Federal Reserve on Monday released a paper describing the methodology used in the stress test in the 2012 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) as well as the templates for disclosure of the summary results, which will be issued at 4:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday, March 15... U.S. firms have built up their capital levels under the Federal Reserve's leadership since government stress tests were conducted in early 2009. The 19 bank holding companies that participated in those tests and in the 2011 and 2012 CCAR have increased their tier 1 common capital levels to $759 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011 from $420 billion in the first quarter of 2009. The tier 1 common ratio for these firms, which compares high-quality capital to risk-weighted assets, has increased to a weighted average of 10.4 percent from 5.4 percent. The increase reflects in part substantially lower capital distributions by bank holding companies, a result of the Federal Reserve's move to ensure the firms reduced or eliminated dividends to maintain safety and soundness. Following the CCAR in 2011, the Federal Reserve allowed those financial institutions with well-developed capital plans and capital positions that would remain strong even under adverse conditions to increase distributions, but at a prudent pace that would ensure continued increases in capital. The 19 institutions paid out 15 percent of net income in common dividends in 2011 after paying out 38 percent of net income in 2006. They also raised more in common equity than they repurchased in 2011
Probably not. The buying will shift to the American investor thru pension plans, mutual funds, 401-k, ect. Just as they have done in Japan. Give Americans a 5% yield and they will gobble it up.
Probably not. The buying will shift to the American investor thru pension plans, mutual funds, 401-k, ect. Just as they have done in Japan. Give Americans a 5% yield and they will gobble it up
Along with that a 5-7% inflation rate. I don't think you can fool the American People too long.
Oh yeah, and gobble it up they will. Grab the all of the retirement accounts and pensions, put them in 5% gov bonds and poof, the gov owns the whole thing. It is going to be kind of like watching Social Security Two, the movie. Muppets...gobbbbbble gobbbbbble gobbbbbble.
<< <i>Probably not. The buying will shift to the American investor thru pension plans, mutual funds, 401-k, ect. Just as they have done in Japan. Give Americans a 5% yield and they will gobble it up
Along with that a 5-7% inflation rate. I don't think you can fool the American People too long. >>
If inflation is 5% and investors are getting 5% on their fixed income investments then they will be happy as flies on a 4th of July hotdog.
PC, of course the US is bailing out the Europeans. Just I stated would happen years ago. The USA is THE big kahuna, and gonna be for many more generations. The Europeans have much deeper problems than the USA and no way to dig themselves out, and I mean that literally, as they have few very natural resources.
Maybe mhammerman, maybe. But im just illustrating that this "can" can be kicked for a very, very long time.
Interesting, Goldman Sachs has a different opinion: The price of gold, one of the most eagerly watched indicators of market confidence, is currently “too low” relative to real interest rates, according to commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs. The analysts forecast that gold will rise to $1,785 per ounce over the next 3 months, $1,840 over the next 6, and $1,940 over the next year.
Seems as they would be headed up especially with any kind of mother nature blip. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Grain prices jumped up to 10% this week with corn leading the way. Incredible move. Might be time for corn to head back to the 800 neckline on this bullish weekly candle. Still, it gapped up $15 on Friday and will probably get filled before too long. The softs appear to be trying to finish off bottoms as well. In any case the trend over the past 10 yrs has been up, and will likely remain up. Of course with constant interventions in currency, commodity, stock, and bond markets, we will continue to see huge swings that will leave the little guy wasted and always on the wrong side of the current "news."
All that corn did on Friday was get back what it lost the previous 4 days and still closed lower for the week. Its also down 5% from where it was 2 weeks ago. Hardly bullish, but maybe probing for a bottom. I will note that corn is down 20% from a year ago when everyone was panicked about their cereal costing too much.
Never bet against the American farmer producing a bumber crop. They be the best in the world.
<< <i> acres planted are up 4% over last year and 9% over 2010. This represents the most acres planted since 1937 >>
hoe dawn, hoe dawn, do you mean to tell me that when the price of something goes up, producers tend to make more of it? where in the world does this idea come from? some fancy textbook larnin? >>
That doesn't seem to apply to gold as miners seem to produce more of it to compensate for lower prices. Note that production peaked back in 2000-2001 with gold around $300. Tripling the price by 2008 didn't do anything for production as it fell essentially each year, reaching a production low in 2008 not seen since 1996. But producton did increase in 2009 and 2010 with 2010 slightly inching out the 2001 production all time high. Maybe the miners are finally reading the fancy textbook you mentioned. They have however increased their ore processing over the past 20-30 years by several multiples...all to get about the same amount of net refined gold.
Lots of commodities trading close to 2 years lows. Coffee, sugar, cocoa. The 99% should be protesting in front of Starbucks for keeping their prices so high. Monster reversal in orange juice over the last 3 months.
I fear other commods are about to suffer as well. Maybe we can hope for a severe drought. Maybe a massive H&S for Dr. Copper? Lets hope not.
An interesting look at the world's economic changes over the past 44 yrs. Bottom line: expect another 5-10 yrs of pumping additional credit into the system to keep it afloat.
Richard Duncan Chief Economist; Author at Blackhorse Asset Management
The problems I have with his article aren't with his analysis of economics. He seems to disregard the inefficiencies, waste, lack of incentive, perpetuation of dependency and a host of other problems created by big government welfare. And surely, the Tea Party is the problem in his opinion.
I have News!
2+2 = 4
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Yepper, once the institutions, equity markets, banksters, and govs changed their philosophy and teachings to embrace the concept that debt was the same as income, there was huge wealth created...at least on paper. This is a fundamental shift from the concept that profit was derived from income that was created by producing goods and services which is a whole different philosophy. See: "Fractional banking", "Housing bubble"
Reading that article, roadrunner - it reminded me of something. Did you ever read "Catch-22"? We are there, right now. We are in a classic "Catch-22" situation, and the banking system is Milo Minderbinder, who is willing to sell to all sides at a profit - and everyone is willing to buy from him, because -
"everyone owns a share"
And beyond that -
You can't opt out of the crazy system unless you are declared crazy.
And the system is so screwed up - that if you really want out, you are not crazy.
Therefore, you cannot opt out of the crazy system.
Debt that is standardized and securitized as money - THAT is especially crazy when there is NO ONE on the other side of the transaction.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Odd that our Treasury Secretary would openly comment that IMF gold backs fiat...so all those loans are safe.
In answering questions about funding of the IMF for the financial needs in the Eurozone, the U.S. Treasury Secretary said the chance of a default by the IMF, or any of it's borrowers of money provided by the U.S. is extremely low. Why? Because the loans are all "backed by IMF gold".
Maybe Ben forget to cc Tim on his last memo that gold is not money....nor does it "back" anything. Just a simple commodity that "happens" to get stored in CB vaults.
I was watching that hearing on CNBC when Geithner said that "the amount of debt, if we had to repay it today would make you uncomfortable", but I wasn't paying attention when he talked about loans of US money being backed by IMF Gold.
I always thought that most of the IMF gold had been pledged by the US, but I don't understand the concept of US money lent out by the IMF being backed by "IMF Gold". Very confusing. Maybe it's intended to be so.
Not backed by the full faith and credit of the US? Only by gold? Very odd.
I've been accumulating cash. Time to start nibbling on bullion again. It does sound like "something's up".
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The other side of the coin is that IMF gold may not even exist. And if it does, the majority of it is pledged to IMF members via restitution. That means that the original members who supplied the gold in the first place, and were around when the 2nd IMF ammendment was passed, have first dibs on the gold priced at $35/oz. IF the gold is gone, then Tim's statment is merely another way of saying the IMF's loans are backed by more paper promises.
Making the news cycle was a report on high school prom costs. Average is now over $1000! Wow, to me that is beyond stunning, leaves me near speechless. It does show that some people have money to spend and are willing to spend it. Some station did a break down and said those households with high incomes (over $75k per year) tend to spend less on average. Those with below average incomes (under $25k per year) tend to spend more than the average. A lot can be read into this skew.
I can see both sides. The lower-income family might see it as maybe the one night in their life where the kid gets to live like a wealthy person. The upper income families know there is college and the probability of a lifetime of good income to come, so a ride in a limo and a night out at a swanky night club is almost for taken for granted as available any time they want it.
Some might point to this as an example as to why poor people are poor, because they tend to waste money on expenditures like one night at a prom, when they might could invest that money, or perhaps use it to help start a small business.
I remember a recent thread of mine on the coin forum about a teenager spending $1000 on a coin. I am sure most on the PCGS forums would wish their kid would pick the coin over blowing $1000 on a prom every time. I obviously don't know if that kid is also blowing $1000 on prom night and buying the coin too. I do remember some snide remark from the peanut gallery asking if the kid that bought the coin had their college money all lined up. Maybe that person could go ask all the lower income families in America about blowing $1000+ on prom night.
Some continue to advise folks to save, to get out of debt. Actually, if the sky is going to fall, the opposite might be the best advice. Spend and have a good time while good times are available, for those that believe in the end times. When the sky falls and 25% of the population is dead or dying, all those years of frugal living might well be seen as wasted time. Again, I can see both sides, though I do not expect the sky to fall any time soon. As always, I tend to lean towards the frugal side, but I always advocate a healthy balanced approach to saving, spending, and investing.
Comments
<< <i>That's with the chief personally endorsing the car and saying he is going to buy one when he leaves office. >>
i 'd say almost anything if it was a wee bit short of five years down the road too!
"Asian demand is a bigger overall factor for gold than the Fed, the U.S. deficit, or the Eurozone adventures."
i can see that but do you think that can change in a couple of years, regardless of continued Asian demand? paper still drives and seems it will drive the POG for some time.
Stupid filters. You much delete the * from the link. Copy and paste without the *.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chart*watchers/2012/03/intermarket-chart-shows-inflation-deflation.html
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Are we in an inflationary or deflationary environment? Interesting intermarket analysis and a question posed at the end that should be seriously considered.
Stupid filters. You much delete the * from the link. Copy and paste without the *.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chart*watchers/2012/03/intermarket-chart-shows-inflation-deflation.html >>
No Link. Tried copying the web address and that did not work either. Try again if you would.
Atwater coin collection
's ok by me
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Are we in an inflationary or deflationary environment? Interesting intermarket analysis and a question posed at the end that should be seriously considered.
Stupid filters. You much delete the * from the link. Copy and paste without the *.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chart*watchers/2012/03/intermarket-chart-shows-inflation-deflation.html >>
No Link. Tried copying the web address and that did not work either. Try again if you would. >>
Working for me. Remove the * from the link and it should work.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
www.tinyurl.com is your friend
Our current state of evolution is enviable. We can go out to any major urbanized area and buy anything we need and if we can't get it there, we can just go online. I was stunned this weekend as I burned off a couple of bens at the Lowes...I bought tree spikes, seeds, mosquito bait for my zapper, tomato cages, mulch, compost, some bedding plants, and a few other non-ag items. I reflected on how farmers of the 50's would have been busy for weeks getting all that together for his spring planting and I did it in about a half an hour less than 10 minutes from my home;' it's just so easy. The remarkable thing is that you can do this in any product area; bedding, kitchen, patio, anything you want, just flick your card through the little slot and walk out with more stuff in 30 minutes than someone from a previous generation could have gathered in a few weeks. It is just so easy, and the buks flow like water.
We all know the credit card traps have been baited and set and that there is a collusive effort to drain digibuks from the cube farmers and anyone with a govt check. Every one of those offering credit and expanding retail are betting on growth projections, paying big bonuses to the ceo's for figuring out ways to get even more money even faster, getting more money from those that are barely keeping the car note current, betting that they can get water from a rock.
Nice piece with a lot of good research but those that need to see it will never get a glimpse. "You know something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones." Just who was that Darwin guy anyway and who cares?
Hey Mister, GOT CASH?
<< <i>Our current state of evolution is enviable. We can go out to any major urbanized area and buy anything we need and if we can't get it there, we can just go online. I was stunned this weekend as I burned off a couple of bens at the Lowes...I bought tree spikes, seeds, mosquito bait for my zapper, tomato cages, mulch, compost, some bedding plants, and a few other non-ag items. I reflected on how farmers of the 50's would have been busy for weeks getting all that together for his spring planting and I did it in about a half an hour less than 10 minutes from my home;' it's just so easy. The remarkable thing is that you can do this in any product area; bedding, kitchen, patio, anything you want, just flick your card through the little slot and walk out with more stuff in 30 minutes than someone from a previous generation could have gathered in a few weeks. It is just so easy, and the buks flow like water. >>
What's amazing is that in many of the places I travel for work, such as France and Brazil, shopping is NOT the same. Granted, I'm only visiting the area and I don't live there so I may not know all of the places, but basically in those places if you find it you have to buy it and there aren't a lot of choices. Less than a half mile away I have a Lowes and a Home Depot across the street from each other. We are lucky here in the US to have all of these stores everywhere, but I wonder sometimes how long it can last.
It will last as long as we have a growing population.
The USA has the best demographics of any developed country.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The USA has the best demographics of any developed country.
Yes! This is an exceptionally important point. Over the next 50 years, the US population will show healthy growth from about 300 million to 400 million, while other countries struggle with the impact of low birth rates and aging populations.
Does anyone on here hold, or ever held, Greek bonds? Ever know someone who got burned investing in Greek bonds? Or is this just Abstract Crisis Du Jour?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Baley, why are you mocking this?
I think that this is old news and has already been widely-anticipated. The larger issue was included in another thread, and that is the issue that no default is being declared, which serves to shield the US banks which have significant exposure to Greek debt. If a default were to be declared outright, the US banks would have to cover the losses of anyone who hedged against a Greek Bond default with Credit Default Swaps issued by those banks.
But hey, since no default was declared, the banks don't lose a thing.
Regarding bondholders - they screwed GM bondholders the same way, only the money went as political payback into union retirements instead of into banking institutions (in direct violation of bankruptcy law). Not a good time to be a bondholder. US Treasuries have some vulnerability as well, as more dollars are created to service the ballooning debt load.
No biggie.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The USA has the best demographics of any developed country.
Yes! This is an exceptionally important point. Over the next 50 years, the US population will show healthy growth from about 300 million to 400 million, while other countries struggle with the impact of low birth rates and aging populations. >>
100 million growth is not so good without 100 million more jobs. Population numbers can be a liability as easily as they can be an asset, especially in an enviornment of dwindling natural resources.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>Gosh, I wish I was fortunate enough to hold some Greek bonds and be concerned about this, I'd be so rich I could easily absorb a 30% haircut on those fancy Greek national bonds.
Does anyone on here hold, or ever held, Greek bonds? Ever know someone who got burned investing in Greek bonds? Or is this just Abstract Crisis Du Jour? >>
Just because it doesn't take money directly out of your pocket does not mean it can't affect markets that can take money directly out of your pocket. While the little guy didn't get a 30% haircut on Greek bond losses, he's sure to get a trim from the fallout - if he's Greek it probably amounts to more than a 30% trim.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>The USA has the best demographics of any developed country.
Yes! This is an exceptionally important point. Over the next 50 years, the US population will show healthy growth from about 300 million to 400 million, while other countries struggle with the impact of low birth rates and aging populations. >>
The USA, with all it's problems, is still the best game in town.
They already turned bankruptcy law upside down by haircutting bondholders. We're talking established law here.
If decades of legal precedent can be trashed overnight, what rules actually apply? It's a "fundamental change". You bet it is. Who in their right mind would buy into bonds in the US automotive industry now? Or any bonds, for that matter?
Seriously.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Federal Reserve on Monday released a paper describing the methodology used in the stress test in the 2012 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) as well as the templates for disclosure of the summary results, which will be issued at 4:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday, March 15... U.S. firms have built up their capital levels under the Federal Reserve's leadership since government stress tests were conducted in early 2009. The 19 bank holding companies that participated in those tests and in the 2011 and 2012 CCAR have increased their tier 1 common capital levels to $759 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011 from $420 billion in the first quarter of 2009. The tier 1 common ratio for these firms, which compares high-quality capital to risk-weighted assets, has increased to a weighted average of 10.4 percent from 5.4 percent. The increase reflects in part substantially lower capital distributions by bank holding companies, a result of the Federal Reserve's move to ensure the firms reduced or eliminated dividends to maintain safety and soundness. Following the CCAR in 2011, the Federal Reserve allowed those financial institutions with well-developed capital plans and capital positions that would remain strong even under adverse conditions to increase distributions, but at a prudent pace that would ensure continued increases in capital. The 19 institutions paid out 15 percent of net income in common dividends in 2011 after paying out 38 percent of net income in 2006. They also raised more in common equity than they repurchased in 2011
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz1oxAkaThT
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In 2011, the Fed purchased a stunning 61% of Treasury issuance. That can't last.
<< <i>Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless
In 2011, the Fed purchased a stunning 61% of Treasury issuance. That can't last. >>
Probably not. The buying will shift to the American investor thru pension plans, mutual funds, 401-k, ect. Just as they have done in Japan. Give Americans a 5% yield and they will gobble it up.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's Official - The Fed Is Now Buying European Government Bonds
Along with that a 5-7% inflation rate. I don't think you can fool the American People too long.
Box of 20
Oh yeah, and gobble it up they will. Grab the all of the retirement accounts and pensions, put them in 5% gov bonds and poof, the gov owns the whole thing. It is going to be kind of like watching Social Security Two, the movie. Muppets...gobbbbbble gobbbbbble gobbbbbble.
<< <i>Probably not. The buying will shift to the American investor thru pension plans, mutual funds, 401-k, ect. Just as they have done in Japan. Give Americans a 5% yield and they will gobble it up
Along with that a 5-7% inflation rate. I don't think you can fool the American People too long. >>
If inflation is 5% and investors are getting 5% on their fixed income investments then they will be happy as flies on a 4th of July hotdog.
PC, of course the US is bailing out the Europeans. Just I stated would happen years ago. The USA is THE big kahuna, and gonna be for many more generations. The Europeans have much deeper problems than the USA and no way to dig themselves out, and I mean that literally, as they have few very natural resources.
Maybe mhammerman, maybe. But im just illustrating that this "can" can be kicked for a very, very long time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
UBS Cuts 2012 Gold Forecast By 18% To $1,680/oz
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Dang banksters manipulating gold lower again.
UBS Cuts 2012 Gold Forecast By 18% To $1,680/oz >>
Interesting, Goldman Sachs has a different opinion:
The price of gold, one of the most eagerly watched indicators of market confidence, is currently “too low” relative to real interest rates, according to commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs. The analysts forecast that gold will rise to $1,785 per ounce over the next 3 months, $1,840 over the next 6, and $1,940 over the next year.
Gold will do just fine if the Real Interest Rate is 0.
I knew it would happen.
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-03-30-2012.pdf
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You decide where grain prices are headed.
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-03-30-2012.pdf >>
Seems as they would be headed up especially with any kind of mother nature blip. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>You decide where grain prices are headed.
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-03-30-2012.pdf >>
Seems as they would be headed up especially with any kind of mother nature blip. MJ >>
Possibly. Except that acres planted are up 4% over last year and 9% over 2010. This represents the most acres planted since 1937.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Still, it gapped up $15 on Friday and will probably get filled before too long. The softs appear to be trying to finish off bottoms as well. In any case the trend over the past
10 yrs has been up, and will likely remain up. Of course with constant interventions in currency, commodity, stock, and bond markets, we will continue to see huge swings that will
leave the little guy wasted and always on the wrong side of the current "news."
Never bet against the American farmer producing a bumber crop. They be the best in the world.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> acres planted are up 4% over last year and 9% over 2010. This represents the most acres planted since 1937 >>
hoe dawn, hoe dawn, do you mean to tell me that when the price of something goes up, producers tend to make more of it?
where in the world does this idea come from? some fancy textbook larnin?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The Myth of America's Decline
The Message No One Wanted to Hear
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<< <i> acres planted are up 4% over last year and 9% over 2010. This represents the most acres planted since 1937 >>
hoe dawn, hoe dawn, do you mean to tell me that when the price of something goes up, producers tend to make more of it?
where in the world does this idea come from? some fancy textbook larnin? >>
That doesn't seem to apply to gold as miners seem to produce more of it to compensate for lower prices. Note that production peaked back in 2000-2001 with gold around $300. Tripling the price by 2008 didn't do anything for production as it fell essentially each year, reaching a production low in 2008 not seen since 1996. But producton did increase in 2009 and 2010 with 2010 slightly inching out the 2001 production all time high. Maybe the miners are finally reading the fancy textbook you mentioned. They have however increased their ore processing over the past 20-30 years by several multiples...all to get about the same amount of net refined gold.
Matt Taibbi explains the JOBS bill - basically ensures another round of stock market IPO fraud
I fear other commods are about to suffer as well. Maybe we can hope for a severe drought. Maybe a massive H&S for Dr. Copper? Lets hope not.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
An interesting look at the world's economic changes over the past 44 yrs. Bottom line: expect another 5-10 yrs of pumping additional credit into the system to keep it afloat.
Chief Economist; Author at Blackhorse Asset Management
The problems I have with his article aren't with his analysis of economics. He seems to disregard the inefficiencies, waste, lack of incentive, perpetuation of dependency and a host of other problems created by big government welfare. And surely, the Tea Party is the problem in his opinion.
I have News!
2+2 = 4
I knew it would happen.
Party on...
Hey buddy, GOT CASH?
A quick and good read. Parts 2 and 3 can be found today at Jesse's Cafe Americain. Jesse
Who needs M1, M2 or M3 when you have DM (ie debt-money)?
"everyone owns a share"
And beyond that -
You can't opt out of the crazy system unless you are declared crazy.
And the system is so screwed up - that if you really want out, you are not crazy.
Therefore, you cannot opt out of the crazy system.
Debt that is standardized and securitized as money - THAT is especially crazy when there is NO ONE on the other side of the transaction.
I knew it would happen.
Box of 20
Odd that our Treasury Secretary would openly comment that IMF gold backs fiat...so all those loans are safe.
In answering questions about funding of the IMF for the financial needs in the Eurozone, the U.S. Treasury Secretary said the chance of a default by the IMF, or any of it's borrowers of money provided by the U.S. is extremely low. Why? Because the loans are all "backed by IMF gold".
Maybe Ben forget to cc Tim on his last memo that gold is not money....nor does it "back" anything. Just a simple commodity that "happens" to get stored in CB vaults.
I always thought that most of the IMF gold had been pledged by the US, but I don't understand the concept of US money lent out by the IMF being backed by "IMF Gold". Very confusing. Maybe it's intended to be so.
Not backed by the full faith and credit of the US? Only by gold? Very odd.
I've been accumulating cash. Time to start nibbling on bullion again. It does sound like "something's up".
I knew it would happen.
members who supplied the gold in the first place, and were around when the 2nd IMF ammendment was passed, have first dibs on the gold priced at $35/oz. IF the gold is
gone, then Tim's statment is merely another way of saying the IMF's loans are backed by more paper promises.
I can see both sides. The lower-income family might see it as maybe the one night in their life where the kid gets to live like a wealthy person. The upper income families know there is college and the probability of a lifetime of good income to come, so a ride in a limo and a night out at a swanky night club is almost for taken for granted as available any time they want it.
Some might point to this as an example as to why poor people are poor, because they tend to waste money on expenditures like one night at a prom, when they might could invest that money, or perhaps use it to help start a small business.
I remember a recent thread of mine on the coin forum about a teenager spending $1000 on a coin. I am sure most on the PCGS forums would wish their kid would pick the coin over blowing $1000 on a prom every time. I obviously don't know if that kid is also blowing $1000 on prom night and buying the coin too. I do remember some snide remark from the peanut gallery asking if the kid that bought the coin had their college money all lined up. Maybe that person could go ask all the lower income families in America about blowing $1000+ on prom night.
Some continue to advise folks to save, to get out of debt. Actually, if the sky is going to fall, the opposite might be the best advice. Spend and have a good time while good times are available, for those that believe in the end times. When the sky falls and 25% of the population is dead or dying, all those years of frugal living might well be seen as wasted time. Again, I can see both sides, though I do not expect the sky to fall any time soon. As always, I tend to lean towards the frugal side, but I always advocate a healthy balanced approach to saving, spending, and investing.