<< <i>That chart simply shows and aging population.
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be. >>
Yes, you are correct. The aging boomers will be a drag on the economy for many years as they become consumers of the economy rather than contributors. Once the boomers are largely gone, and their assets passed on to the next generation--that will foot the bill--the USA will emerge as a greater superpower than anytime in its history. If you manage to be alive from 2025-2050 you will witness economic growth and prosperity like never before. If you are not alive during this time, then you have already enjoyed your economic boom times from 1980-2005---just like your parents witnessed from 1940 to 1965.
<< <i>Yes, you are correct. The aging boomers will be a drag on the economy for many years as they become consumers of the economy rather than contributors. Once the boomers are largely gone, and their assets passed on to the next generation--that will foot the bill--the USA will emerge as a greater superpower than anytime in its history. If you manage to be alive from 2025-2050 you will witness economic growth and prosperity like never before. If you are not alive during this time, then you have already enjoyed your economic boom times from 1980-2005---just like your parents witnessed from 1940 to 1965. >>
"Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate."
<< <i>That chart simply shows and aging population.
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be. >>
So the final Friday scorecard after the lousy jobs numbers was the stock market tomahawked and metals up. The worst one week performance from the Nasdaq since December. Next week promises to be a hoot. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>So the final Friday scorecard after the lousy jobs numbers was the stock market tomahawked and metals up. The worst one week performance from the Nasdaq since December. Next week promises to be a hoot. MJ >>
Actually, if you look for the chart for the SPX we're in a pennant consolidation formation and yesterday merely returned us to the bottom edge of that formation. The next few days will likely see the market return to the upper edge which will be around 1390.
<< <i>So the final Friday scorecard after the lousy jobs numbers was the stock market tomahawked and metals up. The worst one week performance from the Nasdaq since December. Next week promises to be a hoot. MJ >>
Actually, if you look for the chart for the SPX we're in a pennant consolidation formation and yesterday merely returned us to the bottom edge of that formation. The next few days will likely see the market return to the upper edge which will be around 1390. >>
Perhaps, but I only mentioned the Nasdaq because it's been leading and more volatile. The jobs number made it easy to take down the markets.
My other point is that not enough jobs are being created now matter how one spins things or what charts show.. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>My other point is that not enough jobs are being created now matter how one spins things or what charts show.. MJ >>
True, but jobs and stock market performance is not a direct correlation. >>
I didn't mean stock charts
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Just my take...Greek voters may not be as easy a mark as the Germans thought. The Greeks may shun an eternity of being indebted to and dancing to the will of the Eurozone banksters. This gives one hope that they will bite the bullet and tell the Euro banksters to work their magic on some other country. It will be hard for the Greeks but at least they have some pride.
The French seem to be a little more fickle. Over run by third world immigrants, used to a comfy ride, and not willing to sacrifice a thing, they seemingly are in line to go hard left into pure socialism and that should be very interesting politically; I would look for an exodus of French wage earners for greener pastures. The old saw of if you rob Pierre to pay Hamid, you can be sure of Hamids vote may be tested here.
All in all, good for metal and hard currency...JMHO.
I like this quote: DS: My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains
My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains
yeah, that's just teriffic if you have accumulated assets worth a few hundred to maybe a couple thousand dollars. A big box full of the SHTF supplies, a few small gold coins, and a tent will do.
Surely he's not creditably suggesting someone with more investable assets scale into thousands of containers of batteries, beans, and bottled water? How many cabins should you buy? Oh, I get it, just a little of each, and the rest in... wait for it... GOLD.
I'll add to my portfolio fishing pole. Gonna need a hammock too. and a cooler full of beer. and one of those magnesium fire starters... wait, how about some magnifying glasses? that way I can start fires, AND examine the gold coin, as I lay in my hammock, with a beer in hand and a fish over a low fire, with a can of beans in the coals. Sounds like a vacation! that's good living, and great investing
Surely he's not creditably suggesting someone with more investable assets scale into thousands of containers of batteries, beans, and bottled water? How many cabins should you buy? Oh, I get it, just a little of each, and the rest in... wait for it... GOLD
I don't know what % of each item he is suggesting since it's not written down. But a little of each and the rest in gold certainly ain't bad. Anyone being mostly in gold the past 5-10 yrs has done fine. One could easily interpret this list to mean safe and secure alternate shelter, food, water, alternative electricity, and PMs. From what I read around here many people have already done something along these lines. If one feels that FRN's, Treasuries, and IRA's are not something Ben can get his hands on, then by all means remain vested in those.
PC, thanks for that link. I read a number of sources a couple months ago that said the PAGE was permanently shelved. So at that point I stopped paying attention and hadn't run across anything to the contrary, until today. There were a number of articles in March (google "page killed" or "page dead"). And in place of PAGE they were going to start a silver exchange instead.
I've said many times, "never underestimate the American Farmer".......
USDA releases May USDA reported, which is the first monthly report of the fiscal 2012/13 corn year. The first numbers here on the corn balance sheet leave ending corn stocks (inventory) bearish. Also, the USDA expects 2011/12 corn ending inventory to be higher than expected from last month.
First, the USDA increased its 2011/12 corn ending levels to 851 mln, up 6.2% from last month's expectations of 801 mln, which is bearish for corn prices.
Second, the new 2012/13 corn inventory expectations are bearish. The world corn inventory levels are estimated to be 152.34 million metric tons (mmt) for the new 2012/13 crop year, while U.S. ending inventory levels are expected to be at 1.881 billion bushels for the new 2012/13 crop year.
The last estimate for the 2011/12 season, which is shown in the April WASDE, left corn ending inventory stocks at 122.71 mmt and U.S. ending inventory levels at 801 million bushels (before today's' update to 851 mln). Area planted, harvested and yields are reiterated at this point from the March 30, 2012 Prospective Planting report at 95.9 mln bushels, 89.1 mln bushels and 166.0/bushels per acre, respectively.
Exports are seen higher at 1.9 bln bushels for 2012/13, up from 1.7 bln bu last year, while corn used for ethanol was left at 5.0 bln bushels from last year
Actually those words are by the Briefing.com analyst.
In this case he means bearish for corn prices--at least in the near term--and explains why corn is down almost 3% today at $5.91 per bushel. Corn has support at about 5.75, but break below that and you can kiss the "cup and handle" pattern goodbye, as prices in the mid-$4 would be targeted.
Soy-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Bins: Commodities By Jeff Wilson - May 8, 2012 3:51 PM CT
U.S. soybean stockpiles are poised to drop to the lowest relative to consumption since at least 1965 after the worst drought in five decades decimated crops across South America, driving China to buy more from Midwest farmers.
Inventories will decline 20 percent to 172 million bushels (4.68 million metric tons) before next year’s harvest in the U.S., the largest grower, according to the average of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. This year’s 19 percent rally may extend another 11 percent by the end of June to $16 a bushel, according to Linn Group, a brokerage and researcher based in Chicago. Prices reached a record $16.3675 in 2008. Enlarge image Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Diego Giudice/Bloomberg
Production across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia will drop 16 percent this season, the most since a drought in 2009.
Production across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia will drop 16 percent this season, the most since a drought in 2009. Photographer: Diego Giudice/Bloomberg Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee `Long-Term Play'
Play Video
May 8 (Source: Bloomberg) -- Gregory Smith, founder of Australian investment company Global Commodities Ltd., talks about the outlook for commodity markets and his investment strategy. He speaks with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg) Enlarge image Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Corn, the biggest U.S. crop, is still more profitable to plant than soybeans.
Corn, the biggest U.S. crop, is still more profitable to plant than soybeans. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecasts for the South American crop four times in as many months after predicting record supplies as recently as December. The estimates are scheduled to be updated May 10. Imports by China, where demand doubled since 2004, will advance to a record 55 million tons this year as farmers feed a hog herd expanding 4.4 percent to a record 690 million animals, USDA data show.
“Prices may top the 2008 peak if Chinese demand doesn’t slow or there are any threats to the U.S. crop this summer,” said Christopher Narayanan, the head of agricultural commodities research for Societe Generale in New York. “China’s soybean imports have grown at a rate of more than 17 percent annually the last 10 years, and the biggest risk is that demand won’t slow.” World Index
Soybeans traded on the Chicago Board of Trade led gains in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities this year and reached a 45-month high of $15.125 a bushel on May 2. Today, July futures fell 1.9 percent to close at $14.3825 at 1:15 p.m. on the CBOT. The GSCI advanced 0.6 percent since Dec. 30, as the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 6.1 percent. Treasuries returned 0.45 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Production across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia will drop 16 percent this season, the most since a drought in 2009, according to Newedge USA Clearing, part of the second-biggest broker on U.S. exchanges. Craig Huss, the chief risk officer at Decatur, Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Co., the world’s largest grain processor, told analysts on a conference call May 1 that fewer South American exports would make it “difficult to buy beans going forward.”
Before the 2013 harvest, U.S. reserves will be the equivalent of 2.6 percent of projected consumption of 3.363 billion bushels, said Roy Huckabay, an executive vice president at the Linn Group. The lowest stockpiles-to-use ratio was 4 percent in 1965, the earliest that government data is available, when production was 77 percent smaller than in 2011. Smaller Inventory
The USDA probably will forecast on May 10 that global inventories will drop 23 percent to 52.96 million tons as of Oct. 1, the biggest pre-harvest slump in 16 years, according to the average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Hedge funds are making their biggest bet on higher prices since at least June 2006, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They held a net-long position of 253,889 contracts as of May 1. Speculators were wagering on a retreat as recently as December, the data show.
The rally will spur farmers to plant more and importers to buy less, said Dale Durchholz, the senior market analyst for AgriVisor LLC, a consultant in Bloomington, Illinois. Production probably will rebound 21 percent in the year that starts Sept. 1 to a record 284.4 million tons, Memphis, Tennessee-based Informa Economics Inc. said in a report May 4. That would be the largest output gain in three years. Financial Incentive
Shortages before the U.S. harvest starts in September mean futures for July delivery are trading at a premium of $1.41 a bushel to the March 2013 contract. That compares with 2 cents three months earlier, exchange data show.
“The market is telling U.S. livestock producers and Chinese buyers to slow purchases because there is little incentive to accumulate high-priced inventories,” Durchholz said. “China already has enough on the books for post-harvest delivery to get them through two months of consumption. We will shift from perceived tightness to burdensome supplies very quickly if Mother Nature cooperates for U.S. growers.”
Chinese farmers aren’t keeping up with demand for soy-based animal feed, vegetable oil and biofuel in the world’s most- populous nation, where the economy expanded 9.2 percent last year. The harvest was 13.5 million tons last year, down from a peak of 17.4 million in 2004. Consumption is up 36 percent in the past three years to an estimated 70.1 million tons, or 28 percent of global use, USDA data show.
The Asian nation bought 921,642 tons of U.S. soybeans in the four weeks ended April 26, almost three times the amount a year earlier, the USDA said May 3. About 7.12 million tons have been booked for shipment in the year that starts Sept. 1, 21 percent more than at this time last year. Today, the USDA announced that exporters sold 225,000 metric tons to China for delivery before Aug. 31, 2013. Global Stockpiles
China has led an expansion of world soybean consumption that was almost four times the pace of population growth in the past decade, government data show. Global stockpiles will drop to about 51.4 days of use on Oct. 1, the lowest ratio in 15 years, according to Bill Gary, the president of Commodity Information Systems Inc. in Oklahoma City, who has worked in the grain market for a half century. Supplies may be tightest around March 2013, before the South American harvests, he said.
U.S. farmers probably will increase production by about 5.2 percent to 3.214 billion bushels this year, according to the average estimate of 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That may not be enough to keep up with demand. The ratio of U.S soybean reserves to demand will fall to 4.1 percent, the lowest in 48 years, predicts Doane Advisory Services Co., a farm and food- company researcher based in St. Louis. Profitable Corn
Corn, the biggest U.S. crop, is still more profitable to plant than soybeans. Farmers are expected to boost corn planting to 95.864 million acres this year, the most since 1937, the USDA said March 30. That may limit gains in soybean planting while boosting corn output by 7.7 percent to 14.395 billion bushels, according to the average estimate in the Bloomberg survey.
“We need a big crop in the U.S. to offset losses in South America this year,” said Bill Nelson, a senior economist at Doane Advisory Services who expects prices to approach $16 no later than August. “There is just no leeway when there are any crop problems. The anxiety has never been greater.”
Soybeans have been about the only grain that is higher but is already showing signs of topping. Prices are still 15% lower than 4 years ago. The article is behind the times and paints a much more bullish scenerio than actual.
Gonna try to predict the future........A massive solar flare will be unleashed from the sun within 72 hours. It will have to potential to disrupt communications and will make the nightly news.
Anybody got any thoughts on the HIRE/FACTA reporting and tax issues that are slated to come into play Jan 1, 2013 on overseas monies? Any affect on the metals possibly?
<< <i>Gonna try to predict the future........A massive solar flare will be unleashed from the sun within 72 hours. It will have to potential to disrupt communications and will make the nightly news. >>
Yeah baby, here she comes!!!.........
On May 11th at 23:54 UT, a coronal mass ejection raced away from the sun faster than 1000 km/s. The fast-moving cloud will hit Earth's magnetic field on May 14th around 19:30 UT, according to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab. Venus is also in the line of fire.
Gonna just glance us, but whacks Mars pretty hard. So close.
So what games will the Chinese's play to buy oil from Iran with gold? According to Sinclair, and others, the Chinese are going to start buying oil from Iran and paying with gold. We know Iran cannot manipulate the world oil price it is to small, but can china manipulate the price of gold? Would it not make sense to move the price of gold down to buy up more the month before the deal on June 28th took place, and than move it up the first couple of weeks in June? How much difference is $100 per ounce in the gold price to China in there transaction?
<< <i>So what games will the Chinese's play to buy oil from Iran with gold? According to Sinclair, and others, the Chinese are going to start buying oil from Iran and paying with gold. We know Iran cannot manipulate the world oil price it is to small, but can china manipulate the price of gold? Would it not make sense to move the price of gold down to buy up more the month before the deal on June 28th took place, and than move it up the first couple of weeks in June? How much difference is $100 per ounce in the gold price to China in there transaction? >>
If the Chinese are going to pay with gold then they must think the price is going lower. Why pay with an appreciating asset?
O.K I think we are missing the point here. China, and also India, are going to buy Iran’s oil and pay for it in Gold. The oil will be used up and then these two countries will need more gold to buy more oil. If this catches on how many other countries might also want gold for oil not because they have sanctions, but because they no longer want inflated pieces of paper from the U.S. and Europe?
Forbes April 22/12
Beijing is planning to avoid U.S. financial sanctions on Iran by paying for oil with gold. China’s imports of the metal are already large, and you can guess what additional purchases are going to do to prices.
On the last day of 2011, President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. The NDAA, as it is called, attempts to reduce Iran’s revenue from the sale of petroleum by imposing sanctions on foreign financial institutions conducting transactions with Iranian financial institutions in connection with those sales. This provision, which essentially cuts off sanctioned institutions from the U.S. financial system, takes effect on June 28.
<< <i>If the Chinese are going to pay with gold then they must think the price is going lower. Why pay with an appreciating asset? >>
You speak (write) as if they have a limited amount of it. It's no different than if I were to pay for something here in the US with Euros. I'd simply convert my USD to EUR and make the purchase with no consideration about the strength of the Euro and whether it's going up or down assuming the timeframe of getting the Euros to making the purchase is small. My guess is the Chinese got better terms on the purchases. Not to mention, China produces quite a bit of gold themselves.
And if China buys a lot of gold it will raise the value. Then they will have to give less for more oil. Makes sense for them to run up the price before they start to use it.
Digital camera maker Canon announces plans to go to a totally robotic production line by 2015. No human assembly line workers will be required. Displaced workers will be given other jobs within the company.
In related news, Caterpillar workers are striking over plans to end the pension plan and replace it with 401k's. Does anyone think that Caterpillar execs might be making some calls to Canon? Or the suppliers that make the robots for Canon's new line?
/edit to add: also in the news, China cuts bank reserve requirements--good news for gold.
<< <i>In related news, Caterpillar workers are striking over plans to end the pension plan and replace it with 401k's. Does anyone think that Caterpillar execs might be making some calls to Canon? Or the suppliers that make the robots for Canon's new line? >>
Your point is taken, but it doesn't quite work the same for realtively low-volume heavy machinery. The volume just isn't there to invest in all of the specialized equipment. It's not that the technology doesn't exist or hasn't existed - it's about the cost/benefit of the investment in the equipment and how much that cost is when it is spread out per unit. Execs are always looking to cut costs and they will when labor any chance they get.
If China were to transfer gold to Iran(buying oil), Most on here see that as bullish for gold, like many events. Maybe I'm all wet, but I see the opposite, IF China did this in a meaningful way. China could hold gold for long periods of time, not selling on the open market, not increasing supply. Iran would have no such luxury and would likely be forced to sell in the short term, to fund a bankrupt regime, increasing supply and depressing prices, imo.
<< <i>If China were to transfer gold to Iran(buying oil), Most on here see that as bullish for gold, like many events. Maybe I'm all wet, but I see the opposite, IF China did this in a meaningful way. China could hold gold for long periods of time, not selling on the open market, not increasing supply. Iran would have no such luxury and would likely be forced to sell in the short term, to fund a bankrupt regime, increasing supply and depressing prices, imo. >>
I think it can only be bullish for gold but only slightly so if at all. It depends on where the gold is coming from and the change to the market from where it was prior to the announcement. If China is buying gold on the market only to buy it, ship it to Iran, and then they sell it immediately, I would think that would be overall neutral to the market. If China is producing gold and then selling it, and now they are producing gold and then shipping it to Iran and then Iran sells it, that would be neutral as well. The only bearish scenario really is if China is depleting their gold reserves to buy oil thus bringing additional supply to the market, and I don't think this is the case.
China would have a lot more leverage when selling gold to Iran, Iran would probably have to give China a fat discount to current gold/oil prices. So I see more scenarios where it would be bearish for gold prices. Of course, there are many ways to look at something and usually only time, decides who was correct. I'm not sure why selling current inventory for China would be MORE bearish for supply/prices than mining/producing gold, which would increase the potential supply over just selling inventory?
<< <i>China would have a lot more leverage when selling gold to Iran, Iran would probably have to give China a fat discount to current gold/oil prices. So I see more scenarios where it would be bearish for gold prices. Of course, there are many ways to look at something and usually only time, decides who was correct. I'm not sure why selling current inventory for China would be MORE bearish for supply/prices than mining/producing gold, which would increase the potential supply over just selling inventory? >>
The reasoning that I see is that selling current inventory would be introducing additional (new) supply to the market, whereas using production material which presumably would have entered the market normally instead would be diverted to Iran thus reducing the supply to the market - that is until Iran sells. In one scenario you have China's production only and in the other you have China's production + inventory entering the market.
<< <i>Remember a year+ ago when everyone was talking of cotton prices hitting 100 year highs? It even made the nightly news.
Prices have dropped 66% since.
LOL >>
Cohodk,
Love the analysis for you day traders.
Now let's look at the stock market that was going to 20,000, 30,000 and more as many were saying before the 2000 crash. Using your standard for everything but the stock market how has it done? Has an investor doubled their money since 2008 when the stock market dropped below 7,000? Not if you weren't pro-active and sold and brought back in near the bottom. The same can be said for PM's and commodities. I'm sure you realize that cotton like the stock market has more than on offering, some up and some down. If you played that market like the stock market you've done very well. If you brought and held the stock market indices it hasn't reached it's 14k+ turned in since 2000 and the NASDAQ has barely got back to 3k from it's 5k+ high in 2000. When I see 28k on the DOW then you can say it doubled and not until but of course Wall street likes to play games and act like there's a NEW stock market at the first of every year so they can limit the years they lost and play like they've gain for 3 or 4 years straight with a strong stock market. JMO
Ttown, not quite sure what you're getting at, but I'll add color.
Point of my post was that when something become mainstream, its allure is lost. Cotton made the nightly news and lost 2/3rds of its value over the next year.
In 2000 the stock market was the rage with predictions of DOW 36K. What happened next? The nasdaq lost 3/4 of its value.
Last April the talk was silver, silver, silver and predictions of $75, $100 and even $200. What happened next? Silver dropped 50% and still in a down trend.
People need to think of the stock market as a market of stocks, rather than an individual entity. Lots of stock have performed exceeding well overt he past decade. Im not talking about AAPL, but companies such as IBM, CAT, MMM, MCD, XOM, and UTX are all well above the 2000 highs and have paid nice dividends.
I hear disdain for the stock market in your post, and to some extent I agree, but you need to look objectively, as there is tremendous opportunity in all assst classes, not just PMs.
Unfortunately, most 401Ks do not allow you to buy individual stocks. If mine could I would probably be buying some dividend producing stocks. I am guessing some 401K have a mutual fund that only buy dividend producing stocks though.
A lot of moderns have doubled in value in the past 6 years-bought directly from the U.S. Mint, not the secondary market
2009 UHR 2006 ASE 20th Anniversary Set 2006 AGE 20th Anniversary Set All the 2008 W Buffalo MS and Proofs 2007 Rev of 2007 if you bought from the mint directly 2006, 2008 W AGE MS 2006, 2008 W APE MS and Proof 2011 ASE Anniversary Sets 2009 Lincoln Log Cabin collector rolls from the U.S. Mint 2009 Lincoln Chronicle Set
ICE lowers margins for raw sugar futures; raises margins for orange juice futures
Orange juice is down over 50% this year. >>
Just seems like smart business to me. ICE is getting ahead of the orange price rebound after it has put in beautiful but nasty 5 wave, 80%/5 month correction. And now bouncing off the $100 - 3 year support level. Doesn't look like it's gonna keep heading any lower. So they're getting ahead of the curve to prevent just as nasty and fast rebound higher. OJ put in a textbook broadening top formation in 2011. And it's outcome once that pattern broke around $140 was textbook as well. Did ICE lower margins on OJ as it broke down hard below the lower $140's (or earlier)? If they want orderly markets they should have been lowering margins during the drop from $180-$140 and also raising it during the rally to $225. The OJ breakdown was sort of harbinger for the entire soft commodity complex....and possibly PMs as well. GDX put in a similar type of long broadening top as well.
Sugar on the other hand just busted through the key $20 support level. >$15 to <$18 seems a likely target area. Dropping margins will help keep more longs in the game and hence more profits for ICE. When they do 5 margin hikes in the space of a week or two (ie like silver) then we'll know that market flies the conspiracy flag.
Comments
<< <i>That chart simply shows and aging population.
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be. >>
Yes, you are correct. The aging boomers will be a drag on the economy for many years as they become consumers of the economy rather than contributors. Once the boomers are largely gone, and their assets passed on to the next generation--that will foot the bill--the USA will emerge as a greater superpower than anytime in its history. If you manage to be alive from 2025-2050 you will witness economic growth and prosperity like never before. If you are not alive during this time, then you have already enjoyed your economic boom times from 1980-2005---just like your parents witnessed from 1940 to 1965.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Yes, you are correct. The aging boomers will be a drag on the economy for many years as they become consumers of the economy rather than contributors. Once the boomers are largely gone, and their assets passed on to the next generation--that will foot the bill--the USA will emerge as a greater superpower than anytime in its history. If you manage to be alive from 2025-2050 you will witness economic growth and prosperity like never before. If you are not alive during this time, then you have already enjoyed your economic boom times from 1980-2005---just like your parents witnessed from 1940 to 1965. >>
I wish I could share your optimism.
"Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>That chart simply shows and aging population.
If that's the case, it bodes ill for the numbers of people who will be living off fixed incomes in the very near future.
Regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be a much worse mess than the one that Bush handed to Obama. The larger problem is what the response to that mess will be. >>
Lean Forward!
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>So the final Friday scorecard after the lousy jobs numbers was the stock market tomahawked and metals up. The worst one week performance from the Nasdaq since December. Next week promises to be a hoot. MJ >>
Actually, if you look for the chart for the SPX we're in a pennant consolidation formation and yesterday merely returned us to the bottom edge of that formation. The next few days will likely see the market return to the upper edge which will be around 1390.
<< <i>
<< <i>So the final Friday scorecard after the lousy jobs numbers was the stock market tomahawked and metals up. The worst one week performance from the Nasdaq since December. Next week promises to be a hoot. MJ >>
Actually, if you look for the chart for the SPX we're in a pennant consolidation formation and yesterday merely returned us to the bottom edge of that formation. The next few days will likely see the market return to the upper edge which will be around 1390. >>
Perhaps, but I only mentioned the Nasdaq because it's been leading and more volatile. The jobs number made it easy to take down the markets.
My other point is that not enough jobs are being created now matter how one spins things or what charts show.. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>My other point is that not enough jobs are being created now matter how one spins things or what charts show.. MJ >>
True, but jobs and stock market performance is not a direct correlation.
<< <i>
<< <i>My other point is that not enough jobs are being created now matter how one spins things or what charts show.. MJ >>
True, but jobs and stock market performance is not a direct correlation. >>
I didn't mean stock charts
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Merkel is in for some hard times over there in eurozone headquarters.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The French seem to be a little more fickle. Over run by third world immigrants, used to a comfy ride, and not willing to sacrifice a thing, they seemingly are in line to go hard left into pure socialism and that should be very interesting politically; I would look for an exodus of French wage earners for greener pastures. The old saw of if you rob Pierre to pay Hamid, you can be sure of Hamids vote may be tested here.
All in all, good for metal and hard currency...JMHO.
<< <i>Interesting chart:
Past performance is always indicative of future return.
That graph would look great in a marketing slip. Fools 'em everytime.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Shanghai Futures Exchange starts a silver futures trade
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The Emperor is Naked......former OMB chief David Stockman on the economy
I like this quote: DS: My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains
yeah, that's just teriffic if you have accumulated assets worth a few hundred to maybe a couple thousand dollars. A big box full of the SHTF supplies, a few small gold coins, and a tent will do.
Surely he's not creditably suggesting someone with more investable assets scale into thousands of containers of batteries, beans, and bottled water? How many cabins should you buy? Oh, I get it, just a little of each, and the rest in... wait for it... GOLD.
I'll add to my portfolio fishing pole. Gonna need a hammock too. and a cooler full of beer. and one of those magnesium fire starters... wait, how about some magnifying glasses? that way I can start fires, AND examine the gold coin, as I lay in my hammock, with a beer in hand and a fish over a low fire, with a can of beans in the coals. Sounds like a vacation! that's good living, and great investing
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>The proposed Pan Asian gold exchange was successfully blocked by the PTB. Let's see if silver fares better. >>
What do you mean it was blocked? The PAGE starts trading next month according to this article.
I don't know what % of each item he is suggesting since it's not written down. But a little of each and the rest in gold certainly ain't bad. Anyone being mostly in gold the past 5-10 yrs has done fine. One could easily interpret this list to mean safe and secure alternate shelter, food, water, alternative electricity, and PMs. From what I read around here many people
have already done something along these lines. If one feels that FRN's, Treasuries, and IRA's are not something Ben can get his hands on, then by all means remain vested in those.
PC, thanks for that link. I read a number of sources a couple months ago that said the PAGE was permanently shelved. So at that point I stopped paying attention and hadn't run
across anything to the contrary, until today. There were a number of articles in March (google "page killed" or "page dead"). And in place of PAGE they were going to start a silver
exchange instead.
Here's something from March that said PAGE had been killed by a NY entity, but that something different was going to resurrect it.
USDA releases May USDA reported, which is the first monthly report of the fiscal 2012/13 corn year. The first numbers here on the corn balance sheet leave ending corn stocks (inventory) bearish. Also, the USDA expects 2011/12 corn ending inventory to be higher than expected from last month.
First, the USDA increased its 2011/12 corn ending levels to 851 mln, up 6.2% from last month's expectations of 801 mln, which is bearish for corn prices.
Second, the new 2012/13 corn inventory expectations are bearish. The world corn inventory levels are estimated to be 152.34 million metric tons (mmt) for the new 2012/13 crop year, while U.S. ending inventory levels are expected to be at 1.881 billion bushels for the new 2012/13 crop year.
The last estimate for the 2011/12 season, which is shown in the April WASDE, left corn ending inventory stocks at 122.71 mmt and U.S. ending inventory levels at 801 million bushels (before today's' update to 851 mln). Area planted, harvested and yields are reiterated at this point from the March 30, 2012 Prospective Planting report at 95.9 mln bushels, 89.1 mln bushels and 166.0/bushels per acre, respectively.
Exports are seen higher at 1.9 bln bushels for 2012/13, up from 1.7 bln bu last year, while corn used for ethanol was left at 5.0 bln bushels from last year
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz1uU2oVv6a
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
because higher production (and, presumably, lower corn prices) would be bullish for food manufacturers and food consumers?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
In this case he means bearish for corn prices--at least in the near term--and explains why corn is down almost 3% today at $5.91 per bushel. Corn has support at about 5.75, but break below that and you can kiss the "cup and handle" pattern goodbye, as prices in the mid-$4 would be targeted.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
By Jeff Wilson - May 8, 2012 3:51 PM CT
U.S. soybean stockpiles are poised to drop to the lowest relative to consumption since at least 1965 after the worst drought in five decades decimated crops across South America, driving China to buy more from Midwest farmers.
Inventories will decline 20 percent to 172 million bushels (4.68 million metric tons) before next year’s harvest in the U.S., the largest grower, according to the average of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. This year’s 19 percent rally may extend another 11 percent by the end of June to $16 a bushel, according to Linn Group, a brokerage and researcher based in Chicago. Prices reached a record $16.3675 in 2008.
Enlarge image Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Diego Giudice/Bloomberg
Production across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia will drop 16 percent this season, the most since a drought in 2009.
Production across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia will drop 16 percent this season, the most since a drought in 2009. Photographer: Diego Giudice/Bloomberg
Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee `Long-Term Play'
Play Video
May 8 (Source: Bloomberg) -- Gregory Smith, founder of Australian investment company Global Commodities Ltd., talks about the outlook for commodity markets and his investment strategy. He speaks with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)
Enlarge image Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Soybean-Crop Bust Spurs China to Drain U.S. Supply
Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Corn, the biggest U.S. crop, is still more profitable to plant than soybeans.
Corn, the biggest U.S. crop, is still more profitable to plant than soybeans. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecasts for the South American crop four times in as many months after predicting record supplies as recently as December. The estimates are scheduled to be updated May 10. Imports by China, where demand doubled since 2004, will advance to a record 55 million tons this year as farmers feed a hog herd expanding 4.4 percent to a record 690 million animals, USDA data show.
“Prices may top the 2008 peak if Chinese demand doesn’t slow or there are any threats to the U.S. crop this summer,” said Christopher Narayanan, the head of agricultural commodities research for Societe Generale in New York. “China’s soybean imports have grown at a rate of more than 17 percent annually the last 10 years, and the biggest risk is that demand won’t slow.”
World Index
Soybeans traded on the Chicago Board of Trade led gains in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities this year and reached a 45-month high of $15.125 a bushel on May 2. Today, July futures fell 1.9 percent to close at $14.3825 at 1:15 p.m. on the CBOT. The GSCI advanced 0.6 percent since Dec. 30, as the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 6.1 percent. Treasuries returned 0.45 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Production across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia will drop 16 percent this season, the most since a drought in 2009, according to Newedge USA Clearing, part of the second-biggest broker on U.S. exchanges. Craig Huss, the chief risk officer at Decatur, Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Co., the world’s largest grain processor, told analysts on a conference call May 1 that fewer South American exports would make it “difficult to buy beans going forward.”
Before the 2013 harvest, U.S. reserves will be the equivalent of 2.6 percent of projected consumption of 3.363 billion bushels, said Roy Huckabay, an executive vice president at the Linn Group. The lowest stockpiles-to-use ratio was 4 percent in 1965, the earliest that government data is available, when production was 77 percent smaller than in 2011.
Smaller Inventory
The USDA probably will forecast on May 10 that global inventories will drop 23 percent to 52.96 million tons as of Oct. 1, the biggest pre-harvest slump in 16 years, according to the average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Hedge funds are making their biggest bet on higher prices since at least June 2006, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They held a net-long position of 253,889 contracts as of May 1. Speculators were wagering on a retreat as recently as December, the data show.
The rally will spur farmers to plant more and importers to buy less, said Dale Durchholz, the senior market analyst for AgriVisor LLC, a consultant in Bloomington, Illinois. Production probably will rebound 21 percent in the year that starts Sept. 1 to a record 284.4 million tons, Memphis, Tennessee-based Informa Economics Inc. said in a report May 4. That would be the largest output gain in three years.
Financial Incentive
Shortages before the U.S. harvest starts in September mean futures for July delivery are trading at a premium of $1.41 a bushel to the March 2013 contract. That compares with 2 cents three months earlier, exchange data show.
“The market is telling U.S. livestock producers and Chinese buyers to slow purchases because there is little incentive to accumulate high-priced inventories,” Durchholz said. “China already has enough on the books for post-harvest delivery to get them through two months of consumption. We will shift from perceived tightness to burdensome supplies very quickly if Mother Nature cooperates for U.S. growers.”
Chinese farmers aren’t keeping up with demand for soy-based animal feed, vegetable oil and biofuel in the world’s most- populous nation, where the economy expanded 9.2 percent last year. The harvest was 13.5 million tons last year, down from a peak of 17.4 million in 2004. Consumption is up 36 percent in the past three years to an estimated 70.1 million tons, or 28 percent of global use, USDA data show.
The Asian nation bought 921,642 tons of U.S. soybeans in the four weeks ended April 26, almost three times the amount a year earlier, the USDA said May 3. About 7.12 million tons have been booked for shipment in the year that starts Sept. 1, 21 percent more than at this time last year. Today, the USDA announced that exporters sold 225,000 metric tons to China for delivery before Aug. 31, 2013.
Global Stockpiles
China has led an expansion of world soybean consumption that was almost four times the pace of population growth in the past decade, government data show. Global stockpiles will drop to about 51.4 days of use on Oct. 1, the lowest ratio in 15 years, according to Bill Gary, the president of Commodity Information Systems Inc. in Oklahoma City, who has worked in the grain market for a half century. Supplies may be tightest around March 2013, before the South American harvests, he said.
U.S. farmers probably will increase production by about 5.2 percent to 3.214 billion bushels this year, according to the average estimate of 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That may not be enough to keep up with demand. The ratio of U.S soybean reserves to demand will fall to 4.1 percent, the lowest in 48 years, predicts Doane Advisory Services Co., a farm and food- company researcher based in St. Louis.
Profitable Corn
Corn, the biggest U.S. crop, is still more profitable to plant than soybeans. Farmers are expected to boost corn planting to 95.864 million acres this year, the most since 1937, the USDA said March 30. That may limit gains in soybean planting while boosting corn output by 7.7 percent to 14.395 billion bushels, according to the average estimate in the Bloomberg survey.
“We need a big crop in the U.S. to offset losses in South America this year,” said Bill Nelson, a senior economist at Doane Advisory Services who expects prices to approach $16 no later than August. “There is just no leeway when there are any crop problems. The anxiety has never been greater.”
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Gonna try to predict the future........A massive solar flare will be unleashed from the sun within 72 hours. It will have to potential to disrupt communications and will make the nightly news. >>
Yeah baby, here she comes!!!.........
On May 11th at 23:54 UT, a coronal mass ejection raced away from the sun faster than 1000 km/s. The fast-moving cloud will hit Earth's magnetic field on May 14th around 19:30 UT, according to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab. Venus is also in the line of fire.
Gonna just glance us, but whacks Mars pretty hard. So close.
Glancing blow
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
According to Sinclair, and others, the Chinese are going to start buying oil from Iran and paying with gold.
We know Iran cannot manipulate the world oil price it is to small, but can china manipulate the price of gold?
Would it not make sense to move the price of gold down to buy up more the month before the deal on June 28th took place, and than
move it up the first couple of weeks in June?
How much difference is $100 per ounce in the gold price to China in there transaction?
<< <i>So what games will the Chinese's play to buy oil from Iran with gold?
According to Sinclair, and others, the Chinese are going to start buying oil from Iran and paying with gold.
We know Iran cannot manipulate the world oil price it is to small, but can china manipulate the price of gold?
Would it not make sense to move the price of gold down to buy up more the month before the deal on June 28th took place, and than
move it up the first couple of weeks in June?
How much difference is $100 per ounce in the gold price to China in there transaction? >>
If the Chinese are going to pay with gold then they must think the price is going lower. Why pay with an appreciating asset?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>whether you're a buyer or seller, one must always wonder: What does the other guy think, that makes him want to make this trade?? >>
I agree,
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Forbes April 22/12
Beijing is planning to avoid U.S. financial sanctions on Iran by paying for oil with gold. China’s imports of the metal are already large, and you can guess what additional purchases are going to do to prices.
On the last day of 2011, President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012. The NDAA, as it is called, attempts to reduce Iran’s revenue from the sale of petroleum by imposing sanctions on foreign financial institutions conducting transactions with Iranian financial institutions in connection with those sales. This provision, which essentially cuts off sanctioned institutions from the U.S. financial system, takes effect on June 28.
<< <i>If the Chinese are going to pay with gold then they must think the price is going lower. Why pay with an appreciating asset? >>
You speak (write) as if they have a limited amount of it. It's no different than if I were to pay for something here in the US with Euros. I'd simply convert my USD to EUR and make the purchase with no consideration about the strength of the Euro and whether it's going up or down assuming the timeframe of getting the Euros to making the purchase is small. My guess is the Chinese got better terms on the purchases. Not to mention, China produces quite a bit of gold themselves.
Then they will have to give less for more oil.
Makes sense for them to run up the price before they start to use it.
In related news, Caterpillar workers are striking over plans to end the pension plan and replace it with 401k's. Does anyone think that Caterpillar execs might be making some calls to Canon? Or the suppliers that make the robots for Canon's new line?
/edit to add: also in the news, China cuts bank reserve requirements--good news for gold.
<< <i>In related news, Caterpillar workers are striking over plans to end the pension plan and replace it with 401k's. Does anyone think that Caterpillar execs might be making some calls to Canon? Or the suppliers that make the robots for Canon's new line? >>
Your point is taken, but it doesn't quite work the same for realtively low-volume heavy machinery. The volume just isn't there to invest in all of the specialized equipment. It's not that the technology doesn't exist or hasn't existed - it's about the cost/benefit of the investment in the equipment and how much that cost is when it is spread out per unit. Execs are always looking to cut costs and they will when labor any chance they get.
<< <i>If China were to transfer gold to Iran(buying oil), Most on here see that as bullish for gold, like many events. Maybe I'm all wet, but I see the opposite, IF China did this in a meaningful way. China could hold gold for long periods of time, not selling on the open market, not increasing supply. Iran would have no such luxury and would likely be forced to sell in the short term, to fund a bankrupt regime, increasing supply and depressing prices, imo. >>
I think it can only be bullish for gold but only slightly so if at all.
It depends on where the gold is coming from and the change to the market from where it was prior to the announcement. If China is buying gold on the market only to buy it, ship it to Iran, and then they sell it immediately, I would think that would be overall neutral to the market. If China is producing gold and then selling it, and now they are producing gold and then shipping it to Iran and then Iran sells it, that would be neutral as well. The only bearish scenario really is if China is depleting their gold reserves to buy oil thus bringing additional supply to the market, and I don't think this is the case.
<< <i>China would have a lot more leverage when selling gold to Iran, Iran would probably have to give China a fat discount to current gold/oil prices. So I see more scenarios where it would be bearish for gold prices. Of course, there are many ways to look at something and usually only time, decides who was correct. I'm not sure why selling current inventory for China would be MORE bearish for supply/prices than mining/producing gold, which would increase the potential supply over just selling inventory? >>
The reasoning that I see is that selling current inventory would be introducing additional (new) supply to the market, whereas using production material which presumably would have entered the market normally instead would be diverted to Iran thus reducing the supply to the market - that is until Iran sells. In one scenario you have China's production only and in the other you have China's production + inventory entering the market.
Prices have dropped 66% since.
LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Remember a year+ ago when everyone was talking of cotton prices hitting 100 year highs? It even made the nightly news.
Prices have dropped 66% since.
LOL >>
Cohodk,
Love the analysis for you day traders.
Now let's look at the stock market that was going to 20,000, 30,000 and more as many were saying before the 2000 crash. Using your standard for everything but the stock market how has it done? Has an investor doubled their money since 2008 when the stock market dropped below 7,000? Not if you weren't pro-active and sold and brought back in near the bottom. The
same can be said for PM's and commodities. I'm sure you realize that cotton like the stock market has more than on offering, some up and some down. If you played that market like the
stock market you've done very well. If you brought and held the stock market indices it hasn't reached it's 14k+ turned in since 2000 and the NASDAQ has barely got back to 3k from it's
5k+ high in 2000. When I see 28k on the DOW then you can say it doubled and not until but of
course Wall street likes to play games and act like there's a NEW stock market at the first of every year so they can limit the years they lost and play like they've gain for 3 or 4 years straight with a strong stock market. JMO
Point of my post was that when something become mainstream, its allure is lost. Cotton made the nightly news and lost 2/3rds of its value over the next year.
In 2000 the stock market was the rage with predictions of DOW 36K. What happened next? The nasdaq lost 3/4 of its value.
Last April the talk was silver, silver, silver and predictions of $75, $100 and even $200. What happened next? Silver dropped 50% and still in a down trend.
People need to think of the stock market as a market of stocks, rather than an individual entity. Lots of stock have performed exceeding well overt he past decade. Im not talking about AAPL, but companies such as IBM, CAT, MMM, MCD, XOM, and UTX are all well above the 2000 highs and have paid nice dividends.
I hear disdain for the stock market in your post, and to some extent I agree, but you need to look objectively, as there is tremendous opportunity in all assst classes, not just PMs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A lot of moderns have doubled in value in the past 6 years-bought directly from the U.S. Mint, not the secondary market
2009 UHR
2006 ASE 20th Anniversary Set
2006 AGE 20th Anniversary Set
All the 2008 W Buffalo MS and Proofs
2007 Rev of 2007 if you bought from the mint directly
2006, 2008 W AGE MS
2006, 2008 W APE MS and Proof
2011 ASE Anniversary Sets
2009 Lincoln Log Cabin collector rolls from the U.S. Mint
2009 Lincoln Chronicle Set
I did better in the above than in my 401K.
Box of 20
<< <i>Wow, the USD on a tear today, taking its toll on PMs. >>
I wonder how high the spike when Europe folds.
There was a big spike in the USD Fall 2008.
<< <i>Wow, the USD on a tear today, taking its toll on PMs. >>
Is this panic?
I fear we may be seeing a new trend and one that consumes itself. It looks like it might finally be the blow-off top.
Keep your wits since there's nothing at all to gain by losing them.
ICE lowers margins for raw sugar futures; raises margins for orange juice futures
Orange juice is down over 50% this year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Highest & Cheapest Gas Prices by Country
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>For the conspiracy believers....
ICE lowers margins for raw sugar futures; raises margins for orange juice futures
Orange juice is down over 50% this year. >>
Just seems like smart business to me. ICE is getting ahead of the orange price rebound after it has put in beautiful but nasty 5 wave, 80%/5 month correction.
And now bouncing off the $100 - 3 year support level. Doesn't look like it's gonna keep heading any lower. So they're getting ahead of the curve to prevent just as nasty
and fast rebound higher. OJ put in a textbook broadening top formation in 2011. And it's outcome once that pattern broke around $140 was textbook as well. Did ICE lower
margins on OJ as it broke down hard below the lower $140's (or earlier)? If they want orderly markets they should have been lowering margins during the drop
from $180-$140 and also raising it during the rally to $225. The OJ breakdown was sort of harbinger for the entire soft commodity complex....and possibly PMs as well.
GDX put in a similar type of long broadening top as well.
Sugar on the other hand just busted through the key $20 support level. >$15 to <$18 seems a likely target area. Dropping margins will help keep more longs in the game and
hence more profits for ICE. When they do 5 margin hikes in the space of a week or two (ie like silver) then we'll know that market flies the conspiracy flag.
OJ
Sugar