<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
Of course I know nothing and all statistics all lies. What else ya got? >>
Baley, do you think that the chart shows instability in the currency markets? Why the divergences? If it's a currency war, do you think it's going to get even worse?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
Of course I know nothing and all statistics all lies. What else ya got? >>
This is not a system that can be sustained indefinitely
It just needs to be sustained longer than any of us live. So far in this country it worked for about 11 generations. Lots of disgruntled and dead doom and gloomers. The largest generation is going to see those numbers swell. There be the inflation.
Apparently, China really IS going to be a problem in terms of igniting worldwide deflation, based on their (and everyone's) grossly understated debt to GDP ratio. Like, seriously understated. At least, that's what Stockman says. But what does he know? He was only the budget director under Reagan.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>....What is the value of worldwide assets and how much are they up since 2008? >>
World wide "financial" assets of stocks, bonds, real estate, above ground natural resources (less the dirt and resources under it) is still a fraction of the world's otc derivatives. Debt > Assets.
<< <i>The debt problem is worldwide currently at $199 Trillion, up $57 Trillion since the 08 debt crisis. But this time it will be different. >>
What is the value of worldwide assets and how much are they up since 2008? >>
Irrelevant when a small group holds the majority of those assets debt free and the remaining much larger group holds personal debt and their share of sovereign debt. Odds are that most debt appearing on accurate balance sheets is much greater than the collateral covering it.
2015 has gotten off to a rocky start with several conflicts, most all bullish for gold. Time to start looking at the odds when calculating price movement.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
They are contracts denominated in dollars - hence part of debt-money. There's always loser on one side of the contract....that's the debt side. If the loser goes bankrupt, then both counter-parties are on the "debt" side.
<< <i>Phoenix area real estate is booming has been for over a year at least... >>
I know that and am wondering why someone involved in that industry in that area has such a dour outlook on the economy.
FWIW---areas all across the west from Phoenix to Seattle to San Fran to salt lake city are experiencing strong economic growth. >>
Actually, it is not what I would call "booming." Official MLS stats show a tame but sustainable 4.4% increase in avg price and a 6.5% increase in median price 2014 vs 2013. For the same time period, sales volume is down 11%.
As I believe Phoenix tends to lead the nation in real estate trends (we were one of the first to experience the bubble, one of the first to experience the collapse, and one of the first to rebound again), I kind of expect this trend to be reflected nationwide this year and next. From what I can tell, the local RE market is beginning to stagnate. Luckily there hasn't been a lot of new inventory come onto the market, but buyers are really hesitant to buy due to a) they expect prices to come down and b) they are uncertain about their future/jobs. If any amount excessive amount of inventory hits the market then prices will start to decline.
I know you trust the government unemployment numbers, but did you read the Forbes article on why the numbers aren't legit or are misleading?
If you look at economic news out of heavy-energy regions such as ND and Texas (previous stars of our economy), there have been significant layoffs and shutdowns due to low oil prices.
P/E ratio on stocks is sky high and at an unsustainable level. Realistically the only direction is down from here as historically things tend to reverse when at these levels, although they could and probably will push even higher before that eventually happens.
There has been little or no growth is wages. I know that engineering contracting rates and salaries have been stable or even going down over the past 7 or so years. Business raise pools are paltry.
We have one of the most hostile business environments imaginable and it's only getting worse. Companies have tons of cash but they are not using it to expand, hire, or invest in R&D. They are using it for stock buy-backs.
We have an administration that last week threatened to renege on the tax exempt status of 529 plans that middle class America has been relying upon to send their kids to college. They have backed off, but what's next?
Almost every major city is broke and has pension plans that are extremely under-funded and no solution in sight and no one even attempting to fix them (if it's possible).
So to summarize: 1. Housing is done 2. Wages are flat and have been 3. Tons of unemployed or underemployed 4. Hostile business environment 5. J6P is broke 6. Cities are broke 7. States are broke 8. The fed gov't is broke (but covers for it by borrowing)
So tell me, what makes you think the US economy is doing so well and will continue to do so? What do I have wrong here?
So tell me, what makes you think the US economy is doing so well and will continue to do so? What do I have wrong here?
The fiat bags are hanging their hats on these things. J6P is buying it even though he's broke. If your a banker, broker, or government lobbyist, nothing could be finer.
1. record stock market 2. near record bond market 3. low unemployment of 5.7% 4. 336K average "job" growth the past 3 months 5. Very low CPI, low oil and commodity prices. 6. Strong dollar 7. otc derivatives problem "solved" with Dodd-Frank
What's not to love. Something a Krugman or Bernanke could love.
Fwiw, I don't think you have anything wrong. But a lot of distortion is possible when you own the world's reserve currency and your economy is not yet in the tank. As long as the US has the world's reserve currency and the other players are buying it, then the banker's partying can be extended. But, housing is done until past 2030. Real wages have been stagnant since 1973. 2 bread winners is no longer enough, we now need 3 per household.
Just when u thought u heard it all, lol... So we are supposed to believe the Phoenix numbers but not the govt numbers???!!!, hilarious... I would guess home prices up 25-50% over last few years there...
<< <i>So tell me, what makes you think the US economy is doing so well and will continue to do so? What do I have wrong here?
The fiat bags are hanging their hats on these things. J6P is buying it even though he's broke. If your a banker, broker, or government lobbyist, nothing could be finer.
1. record stock market 2. near record bond market 3. low unemployment of 5.7% 4. 336K average "job" growth the past 3 months 5. Very low CPI, low oil and commodity prices. 6. Strong dollar 7. otc derivatives problem "solved" with Dodd-Frank
What's not to love. Something a Krugman or Bernanke could love.
Fwiw, I don't think you have anything wrong. But a lot of distortion is possible when you own the world's reserve currency and your economy is not yet in the tank. As long as the US has the world's reserve currency and the other players are buying it, then the banker's partying can be extended. But, housing is done until past 2030. Real wages have been stagnant since 1973. 2 bread winners is no longer enough, we now need 3 per household. >>
Good points, but those aren't really things that I would consider that make a "good" economy other than the #1 & #2. I dispute that #3 is true (See Forbes article). My idea of a good economy is: 1. True low employment 2. Reasonable wage growth 3. Growing GDP (again, legit numbers) 4. Low inflation (again, legit numbers as felt by the avg citizen) As I mentioned, the clock is ticking on the record stock market. It doesn't have to crash from here but it does have to come down from these P/E levels.
<< <i>Just when u thought u heard it all, lol... So we are supposed to believe the Phoenix numbers but not the govt numbers???!!!, hilarious... I would guess home prices up 25-50% over last few years there... >>
Why wouldn't the MLS data be more accurate? What does the government say Phoenix prices did comparing year-end 2014 to 2013? I agree previous years were better, but 2014 was not spectacular by any means.
A good economy is whatever it takes for the govt to convince J6P. And a number of those items I listed are superficial and irrelevant, but J6P clings to them.
In November, six banks sought to close the first chapter of the case, agreeing to pay a combined $4.25 billion to settle with financial regulators in Washington and Britain. The settlement, which included JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, the Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS and HSBC, exposed the way banks colluded to manipulate currencies through emails and online chat rooms.
On line plants in chat rooms? Say it ain't so Joe! You have to like the banks "cancelling" losing trades.....lol. Hey, just pay the 1% fine on all profits made from these illegal trades and move on. As I've said before, it's easier to make a list of what the big banks haven't rigged.
It's bad enough that the world's central banks are ruining their respective currencies. The addition of forex speculators to the mix will just bring a quicker end game.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>The debt problem is worldwide currently at $199 Trillion, up $57 Trillion since the 08 debt crisis. But this time it will be different. >>
Not to worry. Nothing that a few clicks on the CGMM (computer generated money machine) can't fix. Along with some voodoo adjusted numbers for release to the media to report on. Greece issues continue to be kicked down the road.How do we, the public, really know whats going on.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
They are contracts denominated in dollars - hence part of debt-money. There's always loser on one side of the contract....that's the debt side. If the loser goes bankrupt, then both counter-parties are on the "debt" side. >>
Derivatives are not debt. The loser just loses a promise. No money was exchanged with a promise to pay it back. They are just insurance policies. They are not debt.
When comparing home sales in 2014 vs 2013 which might give the appearance of a soft market, one should also compare sales from 2012 to 2013. Suppose 100 homes were sold in 2012, 125 in 2013 and 140 homes in 2014.
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 50% decrease in the sales rate). Even though more houses were sold the doom and gloomers would have you believe the end is near.
There was a better explanation I read yesterday, but the same jist of the article can be found contained within these forums written by yours truly many months ago. The above referenced link contains info from ZeroHedge so I though more in this forum would welcome the info.
The low DBI is a result of less demand/spending on imported/exported consumer goods. Like MV, the DBI is a good indicator of economic health. Both tell us the economy is very far from healthy regardless of what the mainstream media tells us.
Since the DBI measures the demand for moving raw materials against the supply of ships that can carry them, the keynsian fix is to just sink a few thousand empty container ships.
Bottom line: Lots of people are not spending because lots of people don't have decent jobs or any job at all. The economy is very sick. Watch the true indicators, not the news. As long as we have leadership willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of US oil related jobs via lower oil prices to punish an economic enemy, things will get worse, not better.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Look Here.. There was a better explanation I read yesterday, but the same jist of the article can be found contained within these forums written by yours truly many months ago. The above referenced link contains info from ZeroHedge so I though more in this forum would welcome the info. >>
The Forbes article makes sense, but this information from Wikipedia makes a lot of sense also: The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and a ship's fixed costs are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in deserts. So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..."[6] The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains. So unless a huge supply of ships that (take 2 years to build) suddenly hit the market, the index is being this low is probably still significant, but not necessarily a sign of impending doom. It is NOT a positive thing.
I'm still waiting for you or someone to post on why you or anyone is so positive on the economy.
<< <i>When comparing home sales in 2014 vs 2013 which might give the appearance of a soft market, one should also compare sales from 2012 to 2013. Suppose 100 homes were sold in 2012, 125 in 2013 and 140 homes in 2014.
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 40% decline in sales volume ). Even though more houses were sold the doom and gloomers would have you believe the end is near.
That was a fluff article. The whole article is "if there is an increase in demand." I see no local drivers for an increase in demand. A large part of demand the last few years was Canadians. With recent devaluation of the CAD dollar vs USD, that demand has dried up and could result in inventory if they decide to take profits on the currency play.
This article is realistic with how things actually are and not about fairy-tale speculation: Housing starts ended 2014 down 15 percent across Phoenix while new home sales were off 10 percent and existing sales fell 8 percent as the local residential market slogs into 2015. RL Brown Housing Reports says 2014 fell short in terms of volume. The regional housing market is challenged by demand stunted by slow population growth, tougher mortgage standards and plenty of borrowers preferring to be or stuck in rentals because of poor credit and past foreclosures.
They are contracts denominated in dollars - hence part of debt-money. There's always loser on one side of the contract....that's the debt side. If the loser goes bankrupt, then both counter-parties are on the "debt" side. >>
Derivatives are not debt. The loser just loses a promise. No money was exchanged with a promise to pay it back. They are just insurance policies. They are not debt. >>
Many derivatives are futures contracts which are cash-settled daily. If the market moves against you and your position is insufficient you get a margin call and if the move was drastic enough a liquidation of your account may not be sufficient resulting in a debt. This is generally a net-zero outcome: 1 winner, 1 loser. Although if the winner was using the position to hedge a physical holding or inventory you could wind up with 2 losers: The hedger whose underlying asset took a big value hit and he only gets an IOU (that may never be paid) and the loser who now has a debt to deal with. Basically, the "insurer" goes bankrupt and and the policy holder gets nothing and probable goes BK as well. Now, where have we seen that scenario before?
Look Here.. There was a better explanation I read yesterday, but the same jist of the article can be found contained within these forums written by yours truly many months ago. The above referenced link contains info from ZeroHedge so I though more in this forum would welcome the info. >>
The Forbes article makes sense, but this information from Wikipedia makes a lot of sense also: The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and a ship's fixed costs are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in deserts. So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..."[6] The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains. So unless a huge supply of ships that (take 2 years to build) suddenly hit the market, the index is being this low is probably still significant, but not necessarily a sign of impending doom. It is NOT a positive thing.
I'm still waiting for you or someone to post on why you or anyone is so positive on the economy. >>
They started building a lot more ships in 2006, not just the last 2 years. There are way too many ships even if global demand rose sharply.
In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates
This is why we have huge moves in prices of such commodities such as OIL and SILVER. Just a slight decrease in demand or a slight increase in supply can and does cause huge price movement. Suppose you have that 100th ship but the market needs only 99. You will fill that ship at half the going rate just so it doesnt rust apart in the ocean. This is why prices crash.
<< <i>In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates
This is why we have huge moves in prices of such commodities such as OIL and SILVER. Just a slight decrease in demand or a slight increase in supply can and does cause huge price movement. Suppose you have that 100th ship but the market needs only 99. You will fill that ship at half the going rate just so it doesnt rust apart in the ocean. This is why prices crash. >>
That logic dictates that removing from service or losing commercial aircraft would result in a spike in ticket prices. Huge price movement from slight supply/demand changes are usually the result of speculators hoping to get the jump.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>When comparing home sales in 2014 vs 2013 which might give the appearance of a soft market, one should also compare sales from 2012 to 2013. Suppose 100 homes were sold in 2012, 125 in 2013 and 140 homes in 2014.
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 40% decline in sales volume ). Even though more houses were sold the doom and gloomers would have you believe the end is near.
That was a fluff article. The whole article is "if there is an increase in demand." I see no local drivers for an increase in demand. A large part of demand the last few years was Canadians. With recent devaluation of the CAD dollar vs USD, that demand has dried up and could result in inventory if they decide to take profits on the currency play.
This article is realistic with how things actually are and not about fairy-tale speculation: Housing starts ended 2014 down 15 percent across Phoenix while new home sales were off 10 percent and existing sales fell 8 percent as the local residential market slogs into 2015. RL Brown Housing Reports says 2014 fell short in terms of volume. The regional housing market is challenged by demand stunted by slow population growth, tougher mortgage standards and plenty of borrowers preferring to be or stuck in rentals because of poor credit and past foreclosures.
<< <i>In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates
This is why we have huge moves in prices of such commodities such as OIL and SILVER. Just a slight decrease in demand or a slight increase in supply can and does cause huge price movement. Suppose you have that 100th ship but the market needs only 99. You will fill that ship at half the going rate just so it doesnt rust apart in the ocean. This is why prices crash. >>
That logic dictates that removing from service or losing commercial aircraft would result in a spike in ticket prices. Huge price movement from slight supply/demand changes are usually the result of speculators hoping to get the jump. >>
Only if the economies are inelastic. Prices do rise sharply during the holidays when planes are at full capacity because they always have that extra person who wants to board that plane. If the airline added just one extra plane the ticket prices could be much much lower.
<< <i>When comparing home sales in 2014 vs 2013 which might give the appearance of a soft market, one should also compare sales from 2012 to 2013. Suppose 100 homes were sold in 2012, 125 in 2013 and 140 homes in 2014.
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 40% decline in sales volume ). Even though more houses were sold the doom and gloomers would have you believe the end is near.
That was a fluff article. The whole article is "if there is an increase in demand." I see no local drivers for an increase in demand. A large part of demand the last few years was Canadians. With recent devaluation of the CAD dollar vs USD, that demand has dried up and could result in inventory if they decide to take profits on the currency play.
This article is realistic with how things actually are and not about fairy-tale speculation: Housing starts ended 2014 down 15 percent across Phoenix while new home sales were off 10 percent and existing sales fell 8 percent as the local residential market slogs into 2015. RL Brown Housing Reports says 2014 fell short in terms of volume. The regional housing market is challenged by demand stunted by slow population growth, tougher mortgage standards and plenty of borrowers preferring to be or stuck in rentals because of poor credit and past foreclosures.
Rich people buy new homes. Poor people buy old used homes. The price of new homes is almost always going to be above the median or average. Last I looked Avg & mean (which includes used and new homes) were around $215k which is actually pretty close to the national figures.
Comments
Will oil continue its downward spiral and fuel the dollar rally?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
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<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Yup, and before your kids have kids.
How come no one talking about this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0L21M020150129 >>
You clearly don't know India very well.
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
Of course I know nothing and all statistics all lies. What else ya got? >>
So you disagree with the CEO of Gallup?
Gallup CEO: Unemployment Rate Is A 'Big Lie'; Accurate Jobless Rate is Double That Number, Forbes Says
It's safe to say that the more accurate unemployment rate is about double the official rate reported by the government, notes Forbes.
You can keep believing the government numbers if you want to keep living in fairy tale land with BO.
I knew it would happen.
1892 Gaugin sells for nearly $300 MILL.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Yup, and before your kids have kids.
How come no one talking about this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0L21M020150129 >>
You clearly don't know India very well.
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
Of course I know nothing and all statistics all lies. What else ya got? >>
So you disagree with the CEO of Gallup?
Gallup CEO: Unemployment Rate Is A 'Big Lie'; Accurate Jobless Rate is Double That Number, Forbes Says
It's safe to say that the more accurate unemployment rate is about double the official rate reported by the government, notes Forbes.
You can keep believing the government numbers if you want to keep living in fairy tale land with BO. >>
LMAO. Real estate market not too good in Phoenix? Or you just a bad broker?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>A LOT of signs are pointing to MAJOR trouble in Sept/Oct of this year. >>
Such as?
So many just type words. What a waste.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It just needs to be sustained longer than any of us live. So far in this country it worked for about 11 generations. Lots of disgruntled and dead doom and gloomers. The largest generation is going to see those numbers swell.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
But I disagree that China will ignite worldwide deflation, rather I think worldwide inflation will come from China.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Phoenix area real estate is booming has been for over a year at least... >>
I know that and am wondering why someone involved in that industry in that area has such a dour outlook on the economy.
FWIW---areas all across the west from Phoenix to Seattle to San Fran to salt lake city are experiencing strong economic growth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>The debt problem is worldwide currently at $199 Trillion, up $57 Trillion since the 08 debt crisis. But this time it will be different.
What is the value of worldwide assets and how much are they up since 2008?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>....What is the value of worldwide assets and how much are they up since 2008? >>
World wide "financial" assets of stocks, bonds, real estate, above ground natural resources (less the dirt and resources under it) is still a fraction of the world's otc derivatives. Debt > Assets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Derivatives are not debt. >>
Not yet.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>
<< <i>The debt problem is worldwide currently at $199 Trillion, up $57 Trillion since the 08 debt crisis. But this time it will be different.
What is the value of worldwide assets and how much are they up since 2008? >>
Irrelevant when a small group holds the majority of those assets debt free and the remaining much larger group holds personal debt and their share of sovereign debt. Odds are that most debt appearing on accurate balance sheets is much greater than the collateral covering it.
2015 has gotten off to a rocky start with several conflicts, most all bullish for gold. Time to start looking at the odds when calculating price movement.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Derivatives are not debt. >>
They are contracts denominated in dollars - hence part of debt-money. There's always loser on one side of the contract....that's the debt side. If the loser goes bankrupt, then both counter-parties are on the "debt" side.
<< <i>
<< <i>Phoenix area real estate is booming has been for over a year at least... >>
I know that and am wondering why someone involved in that industry in that area has such a dour outlook on the economy.
FWIW---areas all across the west from Phoenix to Seattle to San Fran to salt lake city are experiencing strong economic growth. >>
Actually, it is not what I would call "booming." Official MLS stats show a tame but sustainable 4.4% increase in avg price and a 6.5% increase in median price 2014 vs 2013. For the same time period, sales volume is down 11%.
As I believe Phoenix tends to lead the nation in real estate trends (we were one of the first to experience the bubble, one of the first to experience the collapse, and one of the first to rebound again), I kind of expect this trend to be reflected nationwide this year and next. From what I can tell, the local RE market is beginning to stagnate. Luckily there hasn't been a lot of new inventory come onto the market, but buyers are really hesitant to buy due to a) they expect prices to come down and b) they are uncertain about their future/jobs. If any amount excessive amount of inventory hits the market then prices will start to decline.
I know you trust the government unemployment numbers, but did you read the Forbes article on why the numbers aren't legit or are misleading?
If you look at economic news out of heavy-energy regions such as ND and Texas (previous stars of our economy), there have been significant layoffs and shutdowns due to low oil prices.
P/E ratio on stocks is sky high and at an unsustainable level. Realistically the only direction is down from here as historically things tend to reverse when at these levels, although they could and probably will push even higher before that eventually happens.
There has been little or no growth is wages. I know that engineering contracting rates and salaries have been stable or even going down over the past 7 or so years. Business raise pools are paltry.
We have one of the most hostile business environments imaginable and it's only getting worse. Companies have tons of cash but they are not using it to expand, hire, or invest in R&D. They are using it for stock buy-backs.
We have an administration that last week threatened to renege on the tax exempt status of 529 plans that middle class America has been relying upon to send their kids to college. They have backed off, but what's next?
Almost every major city is broke and has pension plans that are extremely under-funded and no solution in sight and no one even attempting to fix them (if it's possible).
62% of Americans can't cover unexpected expenses (don't have $500 in savings).
So to summarize:
1. Housing is done
2. Wages are flat and have been
3. Tons of unemployed or underemployed
4. Hostile business environment
5. J6P is broke
6. Cities are broke
7. States are broke
8. The fed gov't is broke (but covers for it by borrowing)
So tell me, what makes you think the US economy is doing so well and will continue to do so? What do I have wrong here?
The fiat bags are hanging their hats on these things. J6P is buying it even though he's broke. If your a banker, broker, or government lobbyist, nothing could be finer.
1. record stock market
2. near record bond market
3. low unemployment of 5.7%
4. 336K average "job" growth the past 3 months
5. Very low CPI, low oil and commodity prices.
6. Strong dollar
7. otc derivatives problem "solved" with Dodd-Frank
What's not to love. Something a Krugman or Bernanke could love.
Fwiw, I don't think you have anything wrong. But a lot of distortion is possible when you own the world's reserve currency and your economy is not yet in the tank. As long as the US has the world's reserve currency and the other players are buying it, then the banker's partying can be extended. But, housing is done until past 2030. Real wages have been stagnant since 1973. 2 bread winners is no longer enough, we now need 3 per household.
So we are supposed to believe the Phoenix numbers but not the govt numbers???!!!, hilarious...
I would guess home prices up 25-50% over last few years there...
<< <i>So tell me, what makes you think the US economy is doing so well and will continue to do so? What do I have wrong here?
The fiat bags are hanging their hats on these things. J6P is buying it even though he's broke. If your a banker, broker, or government lobbyist, nothing could be finer.
1. record stock market
2. near record bond market
3. low unemployment of 5.7%
4. 336K average "job" growth the past 3 months
5. Very low CPI, low oil and commodity prices.
6. Strong dollar
7. otc derivatives problem "solved" with Dodd-Frank
What's not to love. Something a Krugman or Bernanke could love.
Fwiw, I don't think you have anything wrong. But a lot of distortion is possible when you own the world's reserve currency and your economy is not yet in the tank. As long as the US has the world's reserve currency and the other players are buying it, then the banker's partying can be extended. But, housing is done until past 2030. Real wages have been stagnant since 1973. 2 bread winners is no longer enough, we now need 3 per household. >>
Good points, but those aren't really things that I would consider that make a "good" economy other than the #1 & #2. I dispute that #3 is true (See Forbes article). My idea of a good economy is:
1. True low employment
2. Reasonable wage growth
3. Growing GDP (again, legit numbers)
4. Low inflation (again, legit numbers as felt by the avg citizen)
As I mentioned, the clock is ticking on the record stock market. It doesn't have to crash from here but it does have to come down from these P/E levels.
<< <i>Just when u thought u heard it all, lol...
So we are supposed to believe the Phoenix numbers but not the govt numbers???!!!, hilarious...
I would guess home prices up 25-50% over last few years there... >>
Why wouldn't the MLS data be more accurate? What does the government say Phoenix prices did comparing year-end 2014 to 2013? I agree previous years were better, but 2014 was not spectacular by any means.
Big Banks rigging foreign currency trades with algos
In November, six banks sought to close the first chapter of the case, agreeing to pay a combined $4.25 billion to settle with financial regulators in Washington and Britain. The settlement, which included JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, the Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS and HSBC, exposed the way banks colluded to manipulate currencies through emails and online chat rooms.
On line plants in chat rooms? Say it ain't so Joe! You have to like the banks "cancelling" losing trades.....lol. Hey, just pay the 1% fine on all profits made from these illegal trades and move on. As I've said before, it's easier to make a list of what the big banks haven't rigged.
JPM submitting "inaccurate" COT large trader reports from 2012-2014. Chump change.
There's no "deflation" in "debt." $57 TRILL more since 2007
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
The Baltic Dry Index Has Only Been Lower Than This 8 Days In 30 Years
<< <i>One more for the list:
The Baltic Dry Index Has Only Been Lower Than This 8 Days In 30 Years >>
So what does that really mean?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The debt problem is worldwide currently at $199 Trillion, up $57 Trillion since the 08 debt crisis. But this time it will be different.
Not to worry. Nothing that a few clicks on the CGMM (computer generated money machine) can't fix. Along with some voodoo adjusted numbers for release to the media to report on. Greece issues continue to be kicked down the road.How do we, the public, really know whats going on.
<< <i>
<< <i>Derivatives are not debt. >>
They are contracts denominated in dollars - hence part of debt-money. There's always loser on one side of the contract....that's the debt side. If the loser goes bankrupt, then both counter-parties are on the "debt" side.
Derivatives are not debt. The loser just loses a promise. No money was exchanged with a promise to pay it back. They are just insurance policies. They are not debt.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 50% decrease in the sales rate). Even though more houses were sold the doom and gloomers would have you believe the end is near.
I would expect 2015 to show even fewer houses sold -----BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO MEET DEMAND.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>One more for the list:
The Baltic Dry Index Has Only Been Lower Than This 8 Days In 30 Years >>
So what does that really mean? >>
Look Here..
There was a better explanation I read yesterday, but the same jist of the article can be found contained within these forums written by yours truly many months ago. The above referenced link contains info from ZeroHedge so I though more in this forum would welcome the info.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Since the DBI measures the demand for moving raw materials against the supply of ships that can carry them, the keynsian fix is to just sink a few thousand empty container ships.
Bottom line: Lots of people are not spending because lots of people don't have decent jobs or any job at all. The economy is very sick. Watch the true indicators, not the news. As long as we have leadership willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of US oil related jobs via lower oil prices to punish an economic enemy, things will get worse, not better.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>One more for the list:
The Baltic Dry Index Has Only Been Lower Than This 8 Days In 30 Years >>
So what does that really mean? >>
Look Here..
There was a better explanation I read yesterday, but the same jist of the article can be found contained within these forums written by yours truly many months ago. The above referenced link contains info from ZeroHedge so I though more in this forum would welcome the info.
The Forbes article makes sense, but this information from Wikipedia makes a lot of sense also:
The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and a ship's fixed costs are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in deserts. So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..."[6] The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains.
So unless a huge supply of ships that (take 2 years to build) suddenly hit the market, the index is being this low is probably still significant, but not necessarily a sign of impending doom. It is NOT a positive thing.
I'm still waiting for you or someone to post on why you or anyone is so positive on the economy.
<< <i>When comparing home sales in 2014 vs 2013 which might give the appearance of a soft market, one should also compare sales from 2012 to 2013. Suppose 100 homes were sold in 2012, 125 in 2013 and 140 homes in 2014.
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 40% decline in sales volume
I would expect 2015 to show even fewer houses sold -----BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO MEET DEMAND. >>
That was a fluff article. The whole article is "if there is an increase in demand." I see no local drivers for an increase in demand. A large part of demand the last few years was Canadians. With recent devaluation of the CAD dollar vs USD, that demand has dried up and could result in inventory if they decide to take profits on the currency play.
This article is realistic with how things actually are and not about fairy-tale speculation:
Housing starts ended 2014 down 15 percent across Phoenix while new home sales were off 10 percent and existing sales fell 8 percent as the local residential market slogs into 2015. RL Brown Housing Reports says 2014 fell short in terms of volume. The regional housing market is challenged by demand stunted by slow population growth, tougher mortgage standards and plenty of borrowers preferring to be or stuck in rentals because of poor credit and past foreclosures.
Added: New home construction plunges in Phoenix
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Derivatives are not debt. >>
They are contracts denominated in dollars - hence part of debt-money. There's always loser on one side of the contract....that's the debt side. If the loser goes bankrupt, then both counter-parties are on the "debt" side.
Derivatives are not debt. The loser just loses a promise. No money was exchanged with a promise to pay it back. They are just insurance policies. They are not debt. >>
Many derivatives are futures contracts which are cash-settled daily. If the market moves against you and your position is insufficient you get a margin call and if the move was drastic enough a liquidation of your account may not be sufficient resulting in a debt. This is generally a net-zero outcome: 1 winner, 1 loser. Although if the winner was using the position to hedge a physical holding or inventory you could wind up with 2 losers: The hedger whose underlying asset took a big value hit and he only gets an IOU (that may never be paid) and the loser who now has a debt to deal with. Basically, the "insurer" goes bankrupt and and the policy holder gets nothing and probable goes BK as well. Now, where have we seen that scenario before?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>One more for the list:
The Baltic Dry Index Has Only Been Lower Than This 8 Days In 30 Years >>
So what does that really mean? >>
Look Here..
There was a better explanation I read yesterday, but the same jist of the article can be found contained within these forums written by yours truly many months ago. The above referenced link contains info from ZeroHedge so I though more in this forum would welcome the info.
The Forbes article makes sense, but this information from Wikipedia makes a lot of sense also:
The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and a ship's fixed costs are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in deserts. So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..."[6] The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains.
So unless a huge supply of ships that (take 2 years to build) suddenly hit the market, the index is being this low is probably still significant, but not necessarily a sign of impending doom. It is NOT a positive thing.
I'm still waiting for you or someone to post on why you or anyone is so positive on the economy. >>
They started building a lot more ships in 2006, not just the last 2 years. There are way too many ships even if global demand rose sharply.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
This is why we have huge moves in prices of such commodities such as OIL and SILVER. Just a slight decrease in demand or a slight increase in supply can and does cause huge price movement. Suppose you have that 100th ship but the market needs only 99. You will fill that ship at half the going rate just so it doesnt rust apart in the ocean. This is why prices crash.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates
This is why we have huge moves in prices of such commodities such as OIL and SILVER. Just a slight decrease in demand or a slight increase in supply can and does cause huge price movement. Suppose you have that 100th ship but the market needs only 99. You will fill that ship at half the going rate just so it doesnt rust apart in the ocean. This is why prices crash. >>
That logic dictates that removing from service or losing commercial aircraft would result in a spike in ticket prices. Huge price movement from slight supply/demand changes are usually the result of speculators hoping to get the jump.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>
<< <i>When comparing home sales in 2014 vs 2013 which might give the appearance of a soft market, one should also compare sales from 2012 to 2013. Suppose 100 homes were sold in 2012, 125 in 2013 and 140 homes in 2014.
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 40% decline in sales volume
I would expect 2015 to show even fewer houses sold -----BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO MEET DEMAND. >>
That was a fluff article. The whole article is "if there is an increase in demand." I see no local drivers for an increase in demand. A large part of demand the last few years was Canadians. With recent devaluation of the CAD dollar vs USD, that demand has dried up and could result in inventory if they decide to take profits on the currency play.
This article is realistic with how things actually are and not about fairy-tale speculation:
Housing starts ended 2014 down 15 percent across Phoenix while new home sales were off 10 percent and existing sales fell 8 percent as the local residential market slogs into 2015. RL Brown Housing Reports says 2014 fell short in terms of volume. The regional housing market is challenged by demand stunted by slow population growth, tougher mortgage standards and plenty of borrowers preferring to be or stuck in rentals because of poor credit and past foreclosures.
Added: New home construction plunges in Phoenix >>
From that article...
New home sales
2014: 11,408
2013: 10,286
Down 9.8%
Say what????!!!! Is that a proofreading error, a journalistic error, or trying to pull the wool over our eyes?
And if there is a problem, its here....The average price of a new home last year in the Valley was $351,196....who the heck is going to afford that? Homes dont become overpriced due to lack of demand. From your same news source....http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/morning_call/2014/12/phoenix-homes-among-most-overvalued-in-the-country.html
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates
This is why we have huge moves in prices of such commodities such as OIL and SILVER. Just a slight decrease in demand or a slight increase in supply can and does cause huge price movement. Suppose you have that 100th ship but the market needs only 99. You will fill that ship at half the going rate just so it doesnt rust apart in the ocean. This is why prices crash. >>
That logic dictates that removing from service or losing commercial aircraft would result in a spike in ticket prices. Huge price movement from slight supply/demand changes are usually the result of speculators hoping to get the jump. >>
Only if the economies are inelastic. Prices do rise sharply during the holidays when planes are at full capacity because they always have that extra person who wants to board that plane. If the airline added just one extra plane the ticket prices could be much much lower.
Who the heck speculates on airline tickets?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>Who the heck speculates on airline tickets? >>
No one. That's why prices generally remain stable. Kinda proves my point about what speculators do to market prices.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Dang....and you call this a bad market?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Who the heck speculates on airline tickets? >>
No one. That's why prices generally remain stable. Kinda proves my point about what speculators do to market prices. >>
No it doesnt. This is more conspiracy BS of trying to prove a negative. You fail logic 101.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>When comparing home sales in 2014 vs 2013 which might give the appearance of a soft market, one should also compare sales from 2012 to 2013. Suppose 100 homes were sold in 2012, 125 in 2013 and 140 homes in 2014.
2012 to 2013 would be a 25% increase, but from 2013 to 2014 will only be a 12% increase (or a whopping 40% decline in sales volume
I would expect 2015 to show even fewer houses sold -----BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO MEET DEMAND. >>
That was a fluff article. The whole article is "if there is an increase in demand." I see no local drivers for an increase in demand. A large part of demand the last few years was Canadians. With recent devaluation of the CAD dollar vs USD, that demand has dried up and could result in inventory if they decide to take profits on the currency play.
This article is realistic with how things actually are and not about fairy-tale speculation:
Housing starts ended 2014 down 15 percent across Phoenix while new home sales were off 10 percent and existing sales fell 8 percent as the local residential market slogs into 2015. RL Brown Housing Reports says 2014 fell short in terms of volume. The regional housing market is challenged by demand stunted by slow population growth, tougher mortgage standards and plenty of borrowers preferring to be or stuck in rentals because of poor credit and past foreclosures.
Added: New home construction plunges in Phoenix >>
From that article...
New home sales
2014: 11,408
2013: 10,286
Down 9.8%
Say what????!!!! Is that a proofreading error, a journalistic error, or trying to pull the wool over our eyes? >>
So they rounded up 0.2% to call 9.8% as 10%. Do you really think they were trying to fool you by throwing in an extra 0.2%?
<< <i>And if there is a problem, its here....The average price of a new home last year in the Valley was $351,196....who the heck is going to afford that? Homes dont become overpriced due to lack of demand. From your same news source....http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/morning_call/2014/12/phoenix-homes-among-most-overvalued-in-the-country.html >>
Rich people buy new homes. Poor people buy old used homes. The price of new homes is almost always going to be above the median or average. Last I looked Avg & mean (which includes used and new homes) were around $215k which is actually pretty close to the national figures.
<< <i>http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2013/03/28/phoenix-home-prices-show-365-percent.html?page=all
Dang....and you call this a bad market? >>
I was never talking about the market from 2 years ago. I'm talking about TODAY'S market.
<< <i>Even in a declining market, homes can become very overpriced if foreign investors want them. >>
Was there a solar flare in Florida? Something messing you brain.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear