<< <i>Hyperinflation in Weimar----Economy completely destroyed by war.
Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe---Economy completely destroyed by war and severe political turmoil.
Hyperinflation in Bolivia--Economy and political processes controlled by the military.
If the US economy is destroyed by war or there is a military coup, then there will be hyperinflation. >>
Maybe it's the other way around - hyperinflation leads to an enviornment ripe for extreme miltary action
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"The passengers were mostly Indian labourers in Dubai, used as carriers"
Look for India to close this allowed 1kg limit for those returning to the country after being abroad for more than six months.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Note the author claims the FED's reaction will be the fuse for inflation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Note the author claims the FED's reaction will be the fuse for inflation. >>
From the link: "...If the Fed had just allowed the market to correct naturally and drop down into its 4 year cycle low in 2012 we would probably now be on a sustainable path into another secular bull market. Unfortunately the Fed made a catastrophic mistake. Instead of allowing the market to function naturally they began operation Twist, then LTRO, then QE3 and QE4...".
At some point in the next few years this will happen. I believe if free market forces are allowed to prevail through the gnashing of teeth, we can come out stronger on the other side. The other side is at least 10 years away though.........
.If the Fed had just allowed the market to correct naturally and drop down into its 4 year cycle low in 2012 we would probably now be on a sustainable path into another secular bull market. Unfortunately the Fed made a catastrophic mistake. Instead of allowing the market to function naturally they began operation Twist, then LTRO, then QE3 and QE4..."
Ok so what happens? Stocks drop 30%? And this would be different from history in what way? And this would differ from other assets in what why? Didnt gold drop 30% and silver 60%.
Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that?
<< <i>Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that? >>
What people are you talking about? The people on this forum? I thought I read that only or 2% of Americans own investment gold.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Ok so what happens? Stocks drop 30%? And this would be different from history in what way? And this would differ from other assets in what why? Didnt gold drop 30% and silver 60%.
Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that?
How is hoping and praying that stocks go up helping anyone when the upward momentum is due to the Fed creating more currency? It's not really creating more goods or jobs. How is outsourcing jobs overseas to cheap labor helping younger job seekers, just so stock prices can continue up? These are the fundamentals, and the fundamentals have nothing to do with whether anyone hopes that gold will go up, or not.
Why are you continuing making the allusion to investing in gold as "a game"? Investing in gold isn't much more than an attempt to get away from paper obligations and paper liabilities.
The stock market isn't even a game, it's a skimming operation and not much else. The rules only apply to the lowest rungs on the ladder, and the rules change whenever the lower rungs start catching the drift. Is volume drying up, cohodk? It seems that volume would be essential to anyone playing with momentum. And yes, playing with momentum isn't investing - let's agree on that much.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that? >>
What people are you talking about? The people on this forum? I thought I read that only or 2% of Americans own investment gold. >>
Yes, I am talking about the people about own gold. The percentage that they represent in the overall population in not important or have any bearing. If you dont own gold do you care about its price? Of course not. So yes, a high % of the people that own gold, IMO, are awaiting a stock market crash to better their fortune.
Nice bar chart derryb, not quite sure the point, other than to omit the returns of other assets.
<< <i>Nice bar chart derryb, not quite sure the point, other than to omit the returns of other assets. >>
Point: disposable income negative for the year yet equities reaching new highs. One (who doesn't already know) has to ask, where is the equity investment money coming from?
Hint: check out Fed balance sheet increase in the chart. Maye this is what "prop" trading really means and yes, this provides further evidence of FED goosing the market. Guess what happens when the goose gets cooked.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Yes, I am talking about the people about own gold. The percentage that they represent in the overall population in not important or have any bearing. If you dont own gold do you care about its price? Of course not. So yes, a high % of the people that own gold, IMO, are awaiting a stock market crash to better their fortune. >>
That might be the case, I'm just not sure why you're so worried about such a small portion of the population. In the trading thread I'm about to post some charts in the next few days. The stock market has had a nice run. I wouldn't say I'm looking for a crash, but a correction is certainly due. The stock market is overbought by just about every indication. Likewise, gold is oversold by just about every indication. As you know, these conditions don't and won't persist forever, and things will reverse course. And the stock market does tend to crash every so often. It's been over 6 years since the last one, stocks are setting record highs, the largest world governments are broke, the largest banks or absurdly over-leveraged with hundreds of trillions in interest-rate-sensitive derivatives, and there's tension in the middle east, so to not expect or at least be a little prepared for come economic chaos would be a little unwise.
<< <i>The stock market has had a nice run. I wouldn't say I'm looking for a crash, but a correction is certainly due. The stock market is overbought by just about every indication. Likewise, gold is oversold by just about every indication. As you know, these conditions don't and won't persist forever, and things will reverse course. And the stock market does tend to crash every so often. It's been over 6 years since the last one, stocks are setting record highs, the largest world governments are broke, the largest banks or absurdly over-leveraged with hundreds of trillions in interest-rate-sensitive derivatives, and there's tension in the middle east, so to not expect or at least be a little prepared for come economic chaos would be a little unwise. >>
Odds against stocks and in favor of gold?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
How is hoping and praying that stocks go up helping anyone when the upward momentum is due to the Fed creating more currency? It's not really creating more goods or jobs.
The value of a company is based on its present and future income. Corporate profit as a % of GDP has never been higher. Investors want to own something that is increasing it profitability and business prospects. This is why the stock market is higher. The FED is not buying any stocks.
How is outsourcing jobs overseas to cheap labor helping younger job seekers
Many companies have brought jobs back into the USA. If Americans were willing to pay higher costs for goods then many more plastic toys would be produced in the USA.
Why are you continuing making the allusion to investing in gold as "a game"?
I think I am on record hundreds of times saying that no type of investing is a game. Where does this idea come from?
Is volume drying up, cohodk? It seems that volume would be essential to anyone playing with momentum
I am not a momentum investor, but I will tell you that volume can decrease as prices go higher. For example $1000 will buy 10 shares of a $100 stock, but only 50 shares of a $200 stock. A 50% decrease in volume. So what does that mean? Nothing. The dollar volume remains the same.
And where does this continue idea that I bash PMs come from? Sheesh, even yesterday I said silver is becoming an attractive investment.
I will bash hucksters, fear mongerers, misinformation spreaders, manipulation and conspiracy theorists though. Fortunately for me the PM asset arena is littered with these folk which makes it quite easy for me.
FED is creating the money being used to buy and leverage stocks. It's obviously not coming from disposable income.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
FED is creating the money being used to buy and leverage stocks. It's obviously not coming from disposable income. >>
I think the PPT might buy stocks, but that's not what we're talking about here. The banks are buying (gambling with) stocks with all of the cheap fed money the have available to them. The banks are loaded with cash, but they aren't lending it out. Where is it going? As has been pointed out, the retail investor isn't doing the buying. Not only is the retail investor broke, but they are disenchanted with how the market is rigged. They all remember shenanigans like the "flash crash" and most of the buying and selling now is computers battling each other for pennies and automated trading algos.
<< <i>The banks are loaded with cash, but they aren't lending it out. Where is it going? >>
FED is enticing banks (with a small interest payment) to keep it on deposit with the Federal Reserves as "excess reserves," above and beyond their "required" reserves. Banks are allowed to use it as collateral to make their "bets" on Wall St. Excess reserves belong to the banks and the banks decide what is done with the money.
This is how the FED is currently keeping the money (and inflation) from hitting Main St. When the FED wants any part of this money to hit Main St. (in the form of bank loans to consumers and businesses) the FED will cut back on the interest it is paying and the banks will direct the money to Main St. for a better return. The FED can "throttle" inflation by the interest rate it pays on excess reserves. The FED can even go with a negative rate (literally charge the banks) for the FED to hold the money.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>This is how the FED is currently keeping the money (and inflation) from hitting Main St. When the FED wants any part of this money to hit Main St. (in the form of bank loans to consumers and businesses) the FED will cut back on the interest it is paying and the banks will direct the money to Main St. for a better return. The FED can "throttle" inflation by the interest rate it pays on excess reserves. The FED can even go with a negative rate (literally charge the banks) for the FED to hold the money. >>
Yes, and have you seen that when the fed proposed this recently, the banks all responded (threatened) that the move would force them to replace those profits in other ways, primarily to start upping the fees on all retail services, including savings accounts and even savings balances (i.e., negative interest). Despite the climbing stock market indexes, things are not as rosy as they want you to believe.
<< <i>This is how the FED is currently keeping the money (and inflation) from hitting Main St. When the FED wants any part of this money to hit Main St. (in the form of bank loans to consumers and businesses) the FED will cut back on the interest it is paying and the banks will direct the money to Main St. for a better return. The FED can "throttle" inflation by the interest rate it pays on excess reserves. The FED can even go with a negative rate (literally charge the banks) for the FED to hold the money. >>
Yes, and have you seen that when the fed proposed this recently, the banks all responded (threatened) that the move would force them to replace those profits in other ways, primarily to start upping the fees on all retail services, including savings accounts and even savings balances (i.e., negative interest). Despite the climbing stock market indexes, things are not as rosy as they want you to believe. >>
Could not agree more.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well I believe that the pundits that rule the hard asset world, i.e. Schiff, Sinclair et al have very much underestimated the tenacity of the Fed, and the worlds financially elite, to pump money into the economies of the world. Lets face facts all the hard asset guys have called the end of paper money for so long that their credibility is now up in smoke. I guess we shall see what 2014 brings, but it looks like a low gold and silver prices and an upward paper market to me!
<< <i>Well I believe that the pundits that rule the hard asset world, i.e. Schiff, Sinclair et al have very much underestimated the tenacity of the Fed, and the worlds financially elite, to pump money into the economies of the world. Lets face facts all the hard asset guys have called the end of paper money for so long that their credibility is now up in smoke. I guess we shall see what 2014 brings, but it looks like a low gold and silver prices and an upward paper market to me! >>
To be fair, unless they provided hard dates or deadlines, they have yet to be proven wrong. There's a saying that goes something like this: investors are never wrong, they are just early.
But I agree, the money pumping is going longer and farther than anyone expected, but I think that's true of most bubbles. I recall during the recent real estate bubble people were vehemently calling for a burst or collapse 1-2 years before it really did start to collapse, and there were plenty of people there to tell them there would be no collapse.
<< <i>Well I believe that the pundits that rule the hard asset world, i.e. Schiff, Sinclair et al have very much underestimated the tenacity of the Fed, and the worlds financially elite, to pump money into the economies of the world. Lets face facts all the hard asset guys have called the end of paper money for so long that their credibility is now up in smoke. I guess we shall see what 2014 brings, but it looks like a low gold and silver prices and an upward paper market to me! >>
To be fair, unless they provided hard dates or deadlines, they have yet to be proven wrong. There's a saying that goes something like this: investors are never wrong, they are just early.
But I agree, the money pumping is going longer and farther than anyone expected, but I think that's true of most bubbles. I recall during the recent real estate bubble people were vehemently calling for a burst or collapse 1-2 years before it really did start to collapse, and there were plenty of people there to tell them there would be no collapse. >>
And if The Fed needs to pour $2 trillion into the till next year to keep the equity markets roaring? You better believe Yellen will do it. Gold is a relic from a time when we couldn't just create as money as we need.
The next big press run will be a result of a liquidity crisis in the consumer market. Right now mostly investors are hoarding cash. Wait until Mom and Pop are doing it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
As has been pointed out, the retail investor isn't doing the buying. Not only is the retail investor broke, but they are disenchanted with how the market is rigged. They all remember shenanigans like the "flash crash" and most of the buying and selling now is computers battling each other for pennies and automated trading algos.
replace "pointed out" with "erroneously stated". The average retail investor in the stock market is alive and well, and bidding up shares, probably higher than he should at the moment in his taxable account. He's also dollar cost averaging into mutual funds in 401ks and IRAs. What they remember is that while the stock market periodically overheats and declines, the long term trend is up, and the long-term record for stocks is better than for gold or silver. The public is also increasingly confident that shares of good stocks (companies with strong earnings growth), like good houses (quality homes in good locations), will always be in demand. Edit to add: and so will gold always be in demand. Which is why my investment tripod has those 3 asset classes as its primary legs
<< <i>To be fair, unless they provided hard dates or deadlines, they have yet to be proven wrong. There's a saying that goes something like this: investors are never wrong, they are just early. >>
What bugs me about these intelligent guys is the message is the same but the formula is changing.
Someday "it" will happen and they will proclaim their triumphalism. Only problem is their "doctrine" is in constant flux.
CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) – Nevada’s largest casinos, still climbing out of the recession, suffered a combined net loss of $1.35 billion in 2013, marking the fifth straight year without an overall profit, state regulators reported Friday.
Too many states have casinos now. Here in Maryland, we will now have 5 casinos alone. The article points out that more and more people go to Vegas not for the gambling.
I would think that casinos would be taking money out of the local economy also since that money is not spent on other entertainment or even the necessities of life. Eventually I would think that patrons will lose so much money they will not be able to afford to gamble. It will take its toll here in Maryland, not now but maybe in a few years.
<< <i>I view las Vegas as a place of excess. If we do not have excess then the economy is just fine. Excess is never good.
However, Vegas is very cheap right now and makes for an inexpensive getaway. Viva la Vegas!! >>
I don't disagree too much; however, I think whatever the comparable Vegas revenue/profit numbers were for 2002-2004 would be a good baseline for judging whether or not the country has recovered. Clearly we have not recovered as much as DC wants us to think. We all know what the real unemployment numbers are.
Vegas *was* cheap 5 years ago, and it is still cheap relatively speaking to other vacation destinations. But prices on everything in Vegas have increased dramatically since 2009. I go about 4 or 5 times a year.
<< <i>I view las Vegas as a place of excess. If we do not have excess then the economy is just fine. Excess is never good.
However, Vegas is very cheap right now and makes for an inexpensive getaway. Viva la Vegas!! >>
The return of on-line betting is fixin' to make it even cheaper.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
the money pumping is going longer and farther than anyone expected, but I think that's true of most bubbles.
Anyone who's had a classical education in finance or business will tell you that there's nothing normal about what we see in the "markets" today. If the resources are abundant enough, it could be a long time before a central banking system based on electronic fiat collapses. However, there's no real reason to believe that the laws of economics have really ever been successfully changed by a government.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
the bulk of the ownership is being transferred to the few who are willing to play the game in addition to having the resources available to play it.
wai.. wha? people who actually invest in stock and/or real estate, are the only ones making money from them? since when?
investing in real estate and stocks are two of the historically popular ways to grow wealth, if one starts small and keeps adding and compounding incomes
wai.. wha? people who actually invest in stock and/or real estate, are the only ones making money from them? since when?
investing in real estate and stocks are two of the historically popular ways to grow wealth, if one starts small and keeps adding and compounding incomes
Absolutely true, Baley. The main difference now is that the Fed/Gov are the ones who pick the winners and losers. If you don't support their policies and keep your money away from their pet projects, you risk losing. There's absolutely no doubt that the Fed/Gov wants money in the stock market and real estate right now, and not in bonds or physical assets. The low interest rates aren't because of market action, they're because of QE. Simple as that.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>The low interest rates aren't because of market action, they're because of QE. Simple as that. >>
Forum blasphemy.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>wai.. wha? people who actually invest in stock and/or real estate, are the only ones making money from them? since when?
investing in real estate and stocks are two of the historically popular ways to grow wealth, if one starts small and keeps adding and compounding incomes
Absolutely true, Baley. The main difference now is that the Fed/Gov are the ones who pick the winners and losers. If you don't support their policies and keep your money away from their pet projects, you risk losing. There's absolutely no doubt that the Fed/Gov wants money in the stock market and real estate right now, and not in bonds or physical assets. The low interest rates aren't because of market action, they're because of QE. Simple as that. >>
I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did?
<< <i> I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did? >>
10 years of poor performance? The DOW hit new all time highs in 2007 and then again in 2014. Did I miss 10 years somewhere? They declined for only 2-3 years in 2000-2003....then took off again. They're still on the move higher from 1982 or even possibly 1932-1933. Where's the poor performance? And what are they catching up from over these past 100-120 years? As far as "growing" wealth, much of the "gains" over the past 100 years are due to inflation. Factor all that out and the story is quite different.
<< <i> I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did? >>
10 years of poor performance? The DOW hit new all time highs in 2007 and then again in 2014. Did I miss 10 years somewhere? They declined for only 2-3 years in 2000-2003....then took off again. They're still on the move higher from 1982 or even possibly 1932-1933. Where's the poor performance? And what are they catching up from over these past 100-120 years? As far as "growing" wealth, much of the "gains" over the past 100 years are due to inflation. Factor all that out and the story is quite different.
Also, do not forget the golden rule of forum discussion: When telling a story you get to tell it the way you choose.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode. Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever?
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode. Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
I continually take a spanking here for such thoughts. Your turn.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode. Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
US banks hold around $250 TRILL in IR swaps. The world holds about $900 TRILL total as 80% of all derivatives are IR contracts. That rule of thumb works very well both here and abroad. Derivatives are one of the major tools for controlling various markets. What's not to like about an opaque market with almost zero reporting and no regulation? It was the $200 BILL in silver derivatives in July 2008 that took down silver over the next few months. When the hit was over, $100 BILL of those contracts were gone. Done deal. Silver from $19 to $8 in only 3 months. What's $200 BILL in silver derivatives?.....only about 12-14 years of world production. What other markets are hedged by non-producers to that extreme? And why is it allowed in PMs? I'd venture that $100 BILL of that was the Bear Stearns legacy position handed over to JPMorgue in early 2008.
<< <i> I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did? >>
10 years of poor performance? The DOW hit new all time highs in 2007 and then again in 2014. Did I miss 10 years somewhere? They declined for only 2-3 years in 2000-2003....then took off again. They're still on the move higher from 1982 or even possibly 1932-1933. Where's the poor performance? And what are they catching up from over these past 100-120 years? As far as "growing" wealth, much of the "gains" over the past 100 years are due to inflation. Factor all that out and the story is quite different.
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode. Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
US banks hold around $250 TRILL in IR swaps. The world holds about $900 TRILL total as 80% of all derivatives are IR contracts. That rule of thumb works very well both here and abroad. Derivatives are one of the major tools for controlling various markets. What's not to like about an opaque market with almost zero reporting and no regulation? It was the $200 BILL in silver derivatives in July 2008 that took down silver over the next few months. When the hit was over, $100 BILL of those contracts were gone. Done deal. Silver from $19 to $8 in only 3 months. What's $200 BILL in silver derivatives?.....only about 12-14 years of world production. What other markets are hedged by non-producers to that extreme? And why is it allowed in PMs? I'd venture that $100 BILL of that was the Bear Stearns legacy position handed over to JPMorgue in early 2008. >>
Roadrunner, you got all over Barry Ritholtz for "misinformation or lies" in his article.
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode. Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
US banks hold around $250 TRILL in IR swaps. The world holds about $900 TRILL total as 80% of all derivatives are IR contracts. That rule of thumb works very well both here and abroad. Derivatives are one of the major tools for controlling various markets. What's not to like about an opaque market with almost zero reporting and no regulation? It was the $200 BILL in silver derivatives in July 2008 that took down silver over the next few months. When the hit was over, $100 BILL of those contracts were gone. Done deal. Silver from $19 to $8 in only 3 months. What's $200 BILL in silver derivatives?.....only about 12-14 years of world production. What other markets are hedged by non-producers to that extreme? And why is it allowed in PMs? I'd venture that $100 BILL of that was the Bear Sterns legacy position handed over to JPMorgue in early 2008. >>
Roadrunner, you got all over Barry Ritholtz for "misinformation or lies" in his article. >>
Cohodk, I'm missing your point. Ritholtz wasn't "venturing" an opinion, he was stating that anti-gold information as obvious "truths." Not even a need to debate them they are so "obvious" to him and others Krugmans. Everything I stated above is a fact. You can look it up or I can show you where to go to find them. The one thing I wasn't "sure" of was whose $100 BILL in silver derivatives were sold in the 2nd half of 2008. So I "ventured" a logical guess that it was BSC's former position inherited by JPM. It could have been all JPM's position as well. Not likely though that it was anyone else but these two. And that's a guess too. Barry the Blade was clearly overstating some of his "truths" and opinions. In that reference to $400 TRILL in otc IR contracts above my post...they were grossly understating the true size by over 50%. I can give a pass to understatement when it hurts the point the author is trying to make. It's the flip side that doesn't hold up. I'd also "venture" that the US banks might hold $350-$400 TRILL in otc IR swaps if we had a full accounting of everything and added in the "missing" 40%. $250 TRILL is just what they report to the OCC (not Orange County Choppers...lol). It's a fact that the BIS cut the total reported otc derivatives by 40% with a stroke of the pen in late 2008 to get them "officially" under $1 QUAD for appearance purposes. Hence, add 40% to everything that's reported today to square it up to Dec 2008 reporting.
The French are joining India in making things harder on gold. They've upped the taxes on gold. Their system sounds crazy.
***ALERT*** My Norton has blocked a Malicious Toolkit 14 attack by the Burning Platform link. Severity, High. I don't know what they are trying to do, but I've been to that site before and I don't recall having this type of attack. The attacking comp was www.theburningplatform.com 173.236.137.36,80
Just an FYI, guys.
Interesting, as it looks like alot of the content on Burning Platform is mostly what I see as accurate. I wonder if they are being smeared by tptb.
Reading further, some of Burning Platform's assertions seem a bit overboard as well.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
He did not stay there
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
But there's still no inflation:
Source: U.S. Department of Labor Statistics/Consumer Price Index
<< <i>I can't believe it, they're going to taper!
But there's still no inflation:
Source: U.S. Department of Labor Statistics/Consumer Price Index >>
See the ag commods thread--similar looking charts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Hyperinflation in Weimar----Economy completely destroyed by war.
Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe---Economy completely destroyed by war and severe political turmoil.
Hyperinflation in Bolivia--Economy and political processes controlled by the military.
If the US economy is destroyed by war or there is a military coup, then there will be hyperinflation. >>
Maybe it's the other way around - hyperinflation leads to an enviornment ripe for extreme miltary action
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"The passengers were mostly Indian labourers in Dubai, used as carriers"
Look for India to close this allowed 1kg limit for those returning to the country after being abroad for more than six months.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I can't believe it, they're going to taper!
But there's still no inflation:
Source: U.S. Department of Labor Statistics/Consumer Price Index >>
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Beef: It's What's For Dinner!
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(So, ranchers will raise more cattle, which is cheaper this year because there's so much corn
Look for a beef glut in a few quarters
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Another Bubble Looking for a Pin
Note the author claims the FED's reaction will be the fuse for inflation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Taper will prove to be a very temporary phenomenon:
Another Bubble Looking for a Pin
Note the author claims the FED's reaction will be the fuse for inflation. >>
From the link: "...If the Fed had just allowed the market to correct naturally and drop down into its 4 year cycle low in 2012 we would probably now be on a sustainable path into another secular bull market. Unfortunately the Fed made a catastrophic mistake. Instead of allowing the market to function naturally they began operation Twist, then LTRO, then QE3 and QE4...".
At some point in the next few years this will happen. I believe if free market forces are allowed to prevail through the gnashing of teeth, we can come out stronger on the other side. The other side is at least 10 years away though.........
Ok so what happens? Stocks drop 30%? And this would be different from history in what way? And this would differ from other assets in what why? Didnt gold drop 30% and silver 60%.
Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that? >>
What people are you talking about? The people on this forum? I thought I read that only or 2% of Americans own investment gold.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that?
How is hoping and praying that stocks go up helping anyone when the upward momentum is due to the Fed creating more currency? It's not really creating more goods or jobs. How is outsourcing jobs overseas to cheap labor helping younger job seekers, just so stock prices can continue up? These are the fundamentals, and the fundamentals have nothing to do with whether anyone hopes that gold will go up, or not.
Why are you continuing making the allusion to investing in gold as "a game"? Investing in gold isn't much more than an attempt to get away from paper obligations and paper liabilities.
The stock market isn't even a game, it's a skimming operation and not much else. The rules only apply to the lowest rungs on the ladder, and the rules change whenever the lower rungs start catching the drift. Is volume drying up, cohodk? It seems that volume would be essential to anyone playing with momentum. And yes, playing with momentum isn't investing - let's agree on that much.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Im getting the feeling that people are beginning to place their bets (this is a game right?) on the future of gold in the direction of the stock market. They are hoping and praying that stocks drop so their gold goes up. What kind of fundamental is that? >>
What people are you talking about? The people on this forum? I thought I read that only or 2% of Americans own investment gold. >>
Yes, I am talking about the people about own gold. The percentage that they represent in the overall population in not important or have any bearing. If you dont own gold do you care about its price? Of course not. So yes, a high % of the people that own gold, IMO, are awaiting a stock market crash to better their fortune.
Nice bar chart derryb, not quite sure the point, other than to omit the returns of other assets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Nice bar chart derryb, not quite sure the point, other than to omit the returns of other assets. >>
Point: disposable income negative for the year yet equities reaching new highs. One (who doesn't already know) has to ask, where is the equity investment money coming from?
Hint: check out Fed balance sheet increase in the chart. Maye this is what "prop" trading really means and yes, this provides further evidence of FED goosing the market. Guess what happens when the goose gets cooked.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Yes, I am talking about the people about own gold. The percentage that they represent in the overall population in not important or have any bearing. If you dont own gold do you care about its price? Of course not. So yes, a high % of the people that own gold, IMO, are awaiting a stock market crash to better their fortune. >>
That might be the case, I'm just not sure why you're so worried about such a small portion of the population.
In the trading thread I'm about to post some charts in the next few days. The stock market has had a nice run. I wouldn't say I'm looking for a crash, but a correction is certainly due. The stock market is overbought by just about every indication. Likewise, gold is oversold by just about every indication. As you know, these conditions don't and won't persist forever, and things will reverse course. And the stock market does tend to crash every so often. It's been over 6 years since the last one, stocks are setting record highs, the largest world governments are broke, the largest banks or absurdly over-leveraged with hundreds of trillions in interest-rate-sensitive derivatives, and there's tension in the middle east, so to not expect or at least be a little prepared for come economic chaos would be a little unwise.
<< <i>The stock market has had a nice run. I wouldn't say I'm looking for a crash, but a correction is certainly due. The stock market is overbought by just about every indication. Likewise, gold is oversold by just about every indication. As you know, these conditions don't and won't persist forever, and things will reverse course. And the stock market does tend to crash every so often. It's been over 6 years since the last one, stocks are setting record highs, the largest world governments are broke, the largest banks or absurdly over-leveraged with hundreds of trillions in interest-rate-sensitive derivatives, and there's tension in the middle east, so to not expect or at least be a little prepared for come economic chaos would be a little unwise. >>
Odds against stocks and in favor of gold?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The value of a company is based on its present and future income. Corporate profit as a % of GDP has never been higher. Investors want to own something that is increasing it profitability and business prospects. This is why the stock market is higher. The FED is not buying any stocks.
How is outsourcing jobs overseas to cheap labor helping younger job seekers
Many companies have brought jobs back into the USA. If Americans were willing to pay higher costs for goods then many more plastic toys would be produced in the USA.
Why are you continuing making the allusion to investing in gold as "a game"?
I think I am on record hundreds of times saying that no type of investing is a game. Where does this idea come from?
Is volume drying up, cohodk? It seems that volume would be essential to anyone playing with momentum
I am not a momentum investor, but I will tell you that volume can decrease as prices go higher. For example $1000 will buy 10 shares of a $100 stock, but only 50 shares of a $200 stock. A 50% decrease in volume. So what does that mean? Nothing. The dollar volume remains the same.
And where does this continue idea that I bash PMs come from? Sheesh, even yesterday I said silver is becoming an attractive investment.
I will bash hucksters, fear mongerers, misinformation spreaders, manipulation and conspiracy theorists though. Fortunately for me the PM asset arena is littered with these folk which makes it quite easy for me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The FED is not buying any stocks. >>
FED is creating the money being used to buy and leverage stocks. It's obviously not coming from disposable income.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>The FED is not buying any stocks. >>
FED is creating the money being used to buy and leverage stocks. It's obviously not coming from disposable income. >>
I think the PPT might buy stocks, but that's not what we're talking about here.
The banks are buying (gambling with) stocks with all of the cheap fed money the have available to them. The banks are loaded with cash, but they aren't lending it out. Where is it going?
As has been pointed out, the retail investor isn't doing the buying. Not only is the retail investor broke, but they are disenchanted with how the market is rigged. They all remember shenanigans like the "flash crash" and most of the buying and selling now is computers battling each other for pennies and automated trading algos.
<< <i>The banks are loaded with cash, but they aren't lending it out. Where is it going? >>
FED is enticing banks (with a small interest payment) to keep it on deposit with the Federal Reserves as "excess reserves," above and beyond their "required" reserves. Banks are allowed to use it as collateral to make their "bets" on Wall St. Excess reserves belong to the banks and the banks decide what is done with the money.
This is how the FED is currently keeping the money (and inflation) from hitting Main St. When the FED wants any part of this money to hit Main St. (in the form of bank loans to consumers and businesses) the FED will cut back on the interest it is paying and the banks will direct the money to Main St. for a better return. The FED can "throttle" inflation by the interest rate it pays on excess reserves. The FED can even go with a negative rate (literally charge the banks) for the FED to hold the money.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>This is how the FED is currently keeping the money (and inflation) from hitting Main St. When the FED wants any part of this money to hit Main St. (in the form of bank loans to consumers and businesses) the FED will cut back on the interest it is paying and the banks will direct the money to Main St. for a better return. The FED can "throttle" inflation by the interest rate it pays on excess reserves. The FED can even go with a negative rate (literally charge the banks) for the FED to hold the money. >>
Yes, and have you seen that when the fed proposed this recently, the banks all responded (threatened) that the move would force them to replace those profits in other ways, primarily to start upping the fees on all retail services, including savings accounts and even savings balances (i.e., negative interest).
Despite the climbing stock market indexes, things are not as rosy as they want you to believe.
<< <i>
<< <i>This is how the FED is currently keeping the money (and inflation) from hitting Main St. When the FED wants any part of this money to hit Main St. (in the form of bank loans to consumers and businesses) the FED will cut back on the interest it is paying and the banks will direct the money to Main St. for a better return. The FED can "throttle" inflation by the interest rate it pays on excess reserves. The FED can even go with a negative rate (literally charge the banks) for the FED to hold the money. >>
Yes, and have you seen that when the fed proposed this recently, the banks all responded (threatened) that the move would force them to replace those profits in other ways, primarily to start upping the fees on all retail services, including savings accounts and even savings balances (i.e., negative interest).
Despite the climbing stock market indexes, things are not as rosy as they want you to believe. >>
Could not agree more.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Well I believe that the pundits that rule the hard asset world, i.e. Schiff, Sinclair et al have very much underestimated the tenacity of the Fed, and the worlds financially elite, to pump money into the economies of the world. Lets face facts all the hard asset guys have called the end of paper money for so long that their credibility is now up in smoke. I guess we shall see what 2014 brings, but it looks like a low gold and silver prices and an upward paper market to me! >>
To be fair, unless they provided hard dates or deadlines, they have yet to be proven wrong. There's a saying that goes something like this: investors are never wrong, they are just early.
But I agree, the money pumping is going longer and farther than anyone expected, but I think that's true of most bubbles. I recall during the recent real estate bubble people were vehemently calling for a burst or collapse 1-2 years before it really did start to collapse, and there were plenty of people there to tell them there would be no collapse.
<< <i>
<< <i>Well I believe that the pundits that rule the hard asset world, i.e. Schiff, Sinclair et al have very much underestimated the tenacity of the Fed, and the worlds financially elite, to pump money into the economies of the world. Lets face facts all the hard asset guys have called the end of paper money for so long that their credibility is now up in smoke. I guess we shall see what 2014 brings, but it looks like a low gold and silver prices and an upward paper market to me! >>
To be fair, unless they provided hard dates or deadlines, they have yet to be proven wrong. There's a saying that goes something like this: investors are never wrong, they are just early.
But I agree, the money pumping is going longer and farther than anyone expected, but I think that's true of most bubbles. I recall during the recent real estate bubble people were vehemently calling for a burst or collapse 1-2 years before it really did start to collapse, and there were plenty of people there to tell them there would be no collapse. >>
And if The Fed needs to pour $2 trillion into the till next year to keep the equity markets roaring? You better believe Yellen will do it. Gold is a relic from a time when we couldn't just create as money as we need.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
replace "pointed out" with "erroneously stated". The average retail investor in the stock market is alive and well, and bidding up shares, probably higher than he should at the moment in his taxable account. He's also dollar cost averaging into mutual funds in 401ks and IRAs. What they remember is that while the stock market periodically overheats and declines, the long term trend is up, and the long-term record for stocks is better than for gold or silver. The public is also increasingly confident that shares of good stocks (companies with strong earnings growth), like good houses (quality homes in good locations), will always be in demand.
Edit to add: and so will gold always be in demand. Which is why my investment tripod has those 3 asset classes as its primary legs
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>To be fair, unless they provided hard dates or deadlines, they have yet to be proven wrong. There's a saying that goes something like this: investors are never wrong, they are just early. >>
What bugs me about these intelligent guys is the message is the same but the formula is changing.
Someday "it" will happen and they will proclaim their triumphalism. Only problem is their "doctrine" is in constant flux.
Thought I would post this article, as I think Vegas is a good reflection of the health of the overall economy.
Nevada’s biggest casinos lose $1.3B in 2013
CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) – Nevada’s largest casinos, still climbing out of the recession, suffered a combined net loss of $1.35 billion in 2013, marking the fifth straight year without an overall profit, state regulators reported Friday.
I would think that casinos would be taking money out of the local economy also since that money is not spent on other entertainment or even the necessities of life. Eventually I would think that patrons will lose so much money they will not be able to afford to gamble. It will take its toll here in Maryland, not now but maybe in a few years.
Box of 20
However, Vegas is very cheap right now and makes for an inexpensive getaway. Viva la Vegas!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I view las Vegas as a place of excess. If we do not have excess then the economy is just fine. Excess is never good.
However, Vegas is very cheap right now and makes for an inexpensive getaway. Viva la Vegas!! >>
I don't disagree too much; however, I think whatever the comparable Vegas revenue/profit numbers were for 2002-2004 would be a good baseline for judging whether or not the country has recovered. Clearly we have not recovered as much as DC wants us to think. We all know what the real unemployment numbers are.
Vegas *was* cheap 5 years ago, and it is still cheap relatively speaking to other vacation destinations. But prices on everything in Vegas have increased dramatically since 2009. I go about 4 or 5 times a year.
<< <i>I view las Vegas as a place of excess. If we do not have excess then the economy is just fine. Excess is never good.
However, Vegas is very cheap right now and makes for an inexpensive getaway. Viva la Vegas!! >>
Vegas casinos lost 1.5 billion last year, in aggregate, the 4th straight year of the town's main industry not being profitable
Macau has 7 times the annual gaming revenue that Las Vegas does.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I view las Vegas as a place of excess. If we do not have excess then the economy is just fine. Excess is never good.
However, Vegas is very cheap right now and makes for an inexpensive getaway. Viva la Vegas!! >>
The return of on-line betting is fixin' to make it even cheaper.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Anyone who's had a classical education in finance or business will tell you that there's nothing normal about what we see in the "markets" today. If the resources are abundant enough, it could be a long time before a central banking system based on electronic fiat collapses. However, there's no real reason to believe that the laws of economics have really ever been successfully changed by a government.
I knew it would happen.
wai.. wha? people who actually invest in stock and/or real estate, are the only ones making money from them? since when?
investing in real estate and stocks are two of the historically popular ways to grow wealth, if one starts small and keeps adding and compounding incomes
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
investing in real estate and stocks are two of the historically popular ways to grow wealth, if one starts small and keeps adding and compounding incomes
Absolutely true, Baley. The main difference now is that the Fed/Gov are the ones who pick the winners and losers. If you don't support their policies and keep your money away from their pet projects, you risk losing. There's absolutely no doubt that the Fed/Gov wants money in the stock market and real estate right now, and not in bonds or physical assets. The low interest rates aren't because of market action, they're because of QE. Simple as that.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The low interest rates aren't because of market action, they're because of QE. Simple as that. >>
Forum blasphemy.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>I view las Vegas as a place of excess. If we do not have excess then the economy is just fine. Excess is never good.
However, Vegas is very cheap right now and makes for an inexpensive getaway. Viva la Vegas!! >>
Vegas casinos lost 1.5 billion last year, in aggregate, the 4th straight year of the town's main industry not being profitable
Macau has 7 times the annual gaming revenue that Las Vegas does. >>
Wow I didn't know it was up to 7X.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>wai.. wha? people who actually invest in stock and/or real estate, are the only ones making money from them? since when?
investing in real estate and stocks are two of the historically popular ways to grow wealth, if one starts small and keeps adding and compounding incomes
Absolutely true, Baley. The main difference now is that the Fed/Gov are the ones who pick the winners and losers. If you don't support their policies and keep your money away from their pet projects, you risk losing. There's absolutely no doubt that the Fed/Gov wants money in the stock market and real estate right now, and not in bonds or physical assets. The low interest rates aren't because of market action, they're because of QE. Simple as that. >>
I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did? >>
10 years of poor performance? The DOW hit new all time highs in 2007 and then again in 2014. Did I miss 10 years somewhere? They declined for only 2-3 years in 2000-2003....then took off again. They're still on the move
higher from 1982 or even possibly 1932-1933. Where's the poor performance? And what are they catching up from over these past 100-120 years? As far as "growing" wealth, much of the "gains" over the past 100 years
are due to inflation. Factor all that out and the story is quite different.
An up to date primer on derivatives
<< <i>
<< <i> I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did? >>
10 years of poor performance? The DOW hit new all time highs in 2007 and then again in 2014. Did I miss 10 years somewhere? They declined for only 2-3 years in 2000-2003....then took off again. They're still on the move
higher from 1982 or even possibly 1932-1933. Where's the poor performance? And what are they catching up from over these past 100-120 years? As far as "growing" wealth, much of the "gains" over the past 100 years
are due to inflation. Factor all that out and the story is quite different.
An up to date primer on derivatives >>
A very good read that should be read by all.
Also, do not forget the golden rule of forum discussion: When telling a story you get to tell it the way you choose.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever?
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode.
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
I continually take a spanking here for such thoughts. Your turn.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode.
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
US banks hold around $250 TRILL in IR swaps. The world holds about $900 TRILL total as 80% of all derivatives are IR contracts. That rule of thumb works very well both here and abroad. Derivatives are one of the major tools for controlling various markets. What's not to like about an opaque market with almost zero reporting and no regulation? It was the $200 BILL in silver derivatives in July 2008 that took down silver over the next few months. When the hit was over, $100 BILL of those contracts were gone. Done deal. Silver from $19 to $8 in only 3 months. What's $200 BILL in silver derivatives?.....only about 12-14 years of world production. What other markets are hedged by non-producers to that extreme? And why is it allowed in PMs? I'd venture that $100 BILL of that was the Bear Stearns legacy position handed over to JPMorgue in early 2008.
<< <i>
<< <i> I vehemently disagree. But you already knew that. Maybe after 10 years of poor performance, stocks are just catching up, just like gold did? >>
10 years of poor performance? The DOW hit new all time highs in 2007 and then again in 2014. Did I miss 10 years somewhere? They declined for only 2-3 years in 2000-2003....then took off again. They're still on the move
higher from 1982 or even possibly 1932-1933. Where's the poor performance? And what are they catching up from over these past 100-120 years? As far as "growing" wealth, much of the "gains" over the past 100 years
are due to inflation. Factor all that out and the story is quite different.
An up to date primer on derivatives >>
In this here very forum from 2008 to 2012 all I heard was how poorly stocks performed, lost decades and the like. You mean all that wasn't true?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode.
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
US banks hold around $250 TRILL in IR swaps. The world holds about $900 TRILL total as 80% of all derivatives are IR contracts. That rule of thumb works very well both here and abroad. Derivatives are one of the major tools for controlling various markets. What's not to like about an opaque market with almost zero reporting and no regulation? It was the $200 BILL in silver derivatives in July 2008 that took down silver over the next few months. When the hit was over, $100 BILL of those contracts were gone. Done deal. Silver from $19 to $8 in only 3 months. What's $200 BILL in silver derivatives?.....only about 12-14 years of world production. What other markets are hedged by non-producers to that extreme? And why is it allowed in PMs? I'd venture that $100 BILL of that was the Bear Stearns legacy position handed over to JPMorgue in early 2008. >>
Roadrunner, you got all over Barry Ritholtz for "misinformation or lies" in his article.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Link removed.
Box of 20
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The article says there are $1Q in derivatives, but what it does not say is that (IIRC), about $400T are in interest-rate related derivatives. All it will take is a sharp rise in rates and the world economies explode.
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this isn't a possible scenario in the next, say, 10 years?
Is there anyone here who believes that the financial elite all know this, are and have prepared for it, and might even use it to intentionally wipe everything out and hit the reset button, only to come back from it richer than ever? >>
US banks hold around $250 TRILL in IR swaps. The world holds about $900 TRILL total as 80% of all derivatives are IR contracts. That rule of thumb works very well both here and abroad. Derivatives are one of the major tools for controlling various markets. What's not to like about an opaque market with almost zero reporting and no regulation? It was the $200 BILL in silver derivatives in July 2008 that took down silver over the next few months. When the hit was over, $100 BILL of those contracts were gone. Done deal. Silver from $19 to $8 in only 3 months. What's $200 BILL in silver derivatives?.....only about 12-14 years of world production. What other markets are hedged by non-producers to that extreme? And why is it allowed in PMs? I'd venture that $100 BILL of that was the Bear Sterns legacy position handed over to JPMorgue in early 2008. >>
Roadrunner, you got all over Barry Ritholtz for "misinformation or lies" in his article. >>
Cohodk, I'm missing your point. Ritholtz wasn't "venturing" an opinion, he was stating that anti-gold information as obvious "truths." Not even a need to debate them they are so "obvious" to him and others Krugmans.
Everything I stated above is a fact. You can look it up or I can show you where to go to find them. The one thing I wasn't "sure" of was whose $100 BILL in silver derivatives were sold in the 2nd half of 2008. So I "ventured"
a logical guess that it was BSC's former position inherited by JPM. It could have been all JPM's position as well. Not likely though that it was anyone else but these two. And that's a guess too. Barry the Blade was clearly
overstating some of his "truths" and opinions. In that reference to $400 TRILL in otc IR contracts above my post...they were grossly understating the true size by over 50%. I can give a pass to understatement when it hurts
the point the author is trying to make. It's the flip side that doesn't hold up. I'd also "venture" that the US banks might hold $350-$400 TRILL in otc IR swaps if we had a full accounting of everything and added in the "missing"
40%. $250 TRILL is just what they report to the OCC (not Orange County Choppers...lol). It's a fact that the BIS cut the total reported otc derivatives by 40% with a stroke of the pen in late 2008 to get them "officially" under
$1 QUAD for appearance purposes. Hence, add 40% to everything that's reported today to square it up to Dec 2008 reporting.
The French are joining India in making things harder on gold. They've upped the taxes on gold. Their system sounds crazy.
French increase taxes gold - oh the humanity and de Gaulle of it!
Just an FYI, guys.
Interesting, as it looks like alot of the content on Burning Platform is mostly what I see as accurate. I wonder if they are being smeared by tptb.
Reading further, some of Burning Platform's assertions seem a bit overboard as well.
I knew it would happen.