<< <i>can grow forever if but not as a percent of GDP
hmmmmm.....................at what point will it stop growing as a percent of GDP (re: Japan)? And that isn't necessarily the question. It seems that the question ought to involve what happens to the economy at the point when the growth in debt stops increasing. >>
Debt will stop growing-in any terms. The economy will flourish. Not gonna happen next year, but it will happen.
Debt will stop growing-in any terms. The economy will flourish. Not gonna happen next year, but it will happen.
I disagree. Without changes in government spending, the trends will continue until the system fails. The economy isn't growing that fast, if at all. It's not hard to figure out. Believe it or not.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"Treasury Secretary Lew sent a letter to House Speaker John Boehner saying he was beginning to implement what he called "the standard set of extraordinary measures" to prevent the Treasury from exceeding the legal limit on the federal debt.
Since Lew sent that letter--announcing that he would use "extraordinary measures"--the debt has remained stuck at exactly $16,699,396,000,000 for 87 straight days.
That includes all 31 days in July when Lew's Treasury says it was running a $98 billion deficit.
When Lew stops using "extraordinary measures" to keep the debt at exactly $16,699,396,000,000, the government will have another debt-limit crisis."
Well, that's one way to stop the debt from growing.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Well, shucks. They should've been using extraordinary measures for the past 15 years - and we wouldn't have had any of these problems in the first place!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>And what kind of event will change 45 years of history? A good event?
The death of the baby boomers will be the change. Good depends on whether you are a baby boomer or not.
Without changes in government spending, the trends will continue until the system fails.
This will be the changes in Govt spending. >>
Death of baby boomers = reduction in tax revenues = increase in government borrowing to compensate for the loss of income. As a greater burden of taxes shifts to a growing number that are dependent on tax funded entitlements and not paying taxes government debt will soar. Those who see a coming reduction in taxes or in government spending should spend their free time on the comic book forum.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I agree with derryb. Also, any decrease in government spending on boomers (I assume we are talking about entitlements) will likely be offset by an increase in spending and benefits for immigrants and a growing lower class.
Many geezers are still working...tough for the youngsters waiting for the positions to open up but the youngsters don't have enough experience to hump the load on their own. Lots of geezers are looking for retirement...but they have been paying into the system for 30 years or so and it's not like they haven't been contributing to SS and Medicare all that time. The juice boxers...not so much. Calling out ss and medicare as entitlements, like ebt's and obamaphones seems inappropriate. Geezers been stashing cash and real estate and stocks and gold and it is intended mostly for their grand kids; children...not so much. If the fed squeezes the boomers w/too much obamacare, they will simply retire and take the medicare @ 65 instead of working till 70...code for "Bite me!" The greatest personal wealth transfer in the history of the world will be completed in by the Boomers in about 20 more years; patience Grasshopper.
Death of baby boomers = reduction in tax revenues = increase in government borrowing to compensate for the loss of income
Nope.
1. The boomers are no longer contributing to the tax roles as 10,000 retire everyday.
2. Population of USA will continue to grow meaning increased tax revenues.
3. Death of boomers will reduce entitlements thus reducing need for higher taxes.
4. Boomer estates will be passed onto their children. These estates will either be taxed or liquidated to reduce the burden on the next generation.
I understand your point and truly believe the the US debt burden to double. But even a double would be less when compared to Japan which continues to have very low interest rates and has a declining population. US debt would probably have to be 3x GDP to cause the problems you envision.
<< <i>Death of baby boomers = reduction in tax revenues = increase in government borrowing to compensate for the loss of income
Nope.
1. The boomers are no longer contributing to the tax roles as 10,000 retire everyday.
2. Population of USA will continue to grow meaning increased tax revenues.
3. Death of boomers will reduce entitlements thus reducing need for higher taxes.
4. Boomer estates will be passed onto their children. These estates will either be taxed or liquidated to reduce the burden on the next generation.
I understand your point and truly believe the the US debt burden to double. But even a double would be less when compared to Japan which continues to have very low interest rates and has a declining population. US debt would probably have to be 3x GDP to cause the problems you envision. >>
1. With the exception of social security, a program they funded, most retirees send more money to Washington than they receive from Washngton. 2. Record food stamps and other taxpayer entitlements are being paid. Unemployment "compensation" and disability income have become the new career path while taxpayer funded cellphones the new status symbol. A new birth to a family in or near poverty means more money from Washington, almost as if it were a reward. I envision the day my tax dollars guarantee all Americans the right to check email (free computer and internet service) and the right to access the news (Free hi def TV and DirecTV). A growing population in this country has become a need for more tax spending when it should be resulting in more tax revenue. 3. See number 2. The primary entitlement to retired boomers is Social Security Supplemental Income, a program they funded. 4. Estates under $1M do not pay a death tax. This includes most all of the boomers.
Retirees/baby boomers are not the financial burden on our social system and most of them currently pay taxes even though retired. Death of most retirees is a net long term loss to the tax collectors. The growing poverty level of the US population equates to higher government expenditures. The population of Japan is a nation of savers while the population of the US is a nation of debtors, much more dependent on their government's treasury for basic needs. This alone will expedite our push pass Japan when measuring debt to GDP. Debt to GDP in the US increased 30% between 2008 and 2012. If one truely sees the US debt burden doubling, it's not that difficult to see it tripling and spiraling out of conrol, especially when a more government dependent population results in reduced tax revenue and increased tax expenditures.
Boomers/retirees are far from the burden on the treasury. The true burden is reckless spending to continue lining the pockets of reckless spenders and the reckless entitlement promises (Detroit?) made by these reckless spenders to garner the votes necessary to remain in office to continue having their pockets lined. Political corruption and unchecked greed, at the expense of income producing taxpayers, and as history has so many times shown, will once again be the downfall of a great nation. We have reached the point of no return in that the majority of voters are now dependent on Washington and will continue to fill its offices with entitlement promising crooks. The declining boomer population has nothing to do with a growing soverign debt problem and if anything will expedite it.
Our out of control national debt will be met in two ways. Higher tax rates for those that do pay taxes and increased borrowing (QE) from our privately owned central bank which is nothing short of a conglomerate of our Too Big Too Fail banks. Tax policy will lead to a nation of those who have most everything and those who have little or nothing. Middle class will become extinct, the great transfer of wealth continues on schedule. Continued borrowing will lead to financial insolvency or at best a currency worth next to nothing. Which ever occurs first is irrelevent, the consequences are a bankrupt nation and a very unhappy population. One need not look far to understand why Washington continues to stockpile ammunition.
Those that are not stacking to protect what wealth they do have are not paying close enough attention.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Well said derryb. The social security program as well all know is bankrupt and running an ever-increasing deficit. Nothing will change this without reform of the whole program. Even after the boomers die there will be too much coming out and too little going in, not to mention the fact that the funds have already been stolen and spent.
The US economy is large, and when you put pencil to paper you begin to see that the huge debt isn't as large in relative terms as it is in absolute terms. Still, all of the trends are running in the wrong direction and that is what makes for a train wreck.
3. Death of boomers will reduce entitlements thus reducing need for higher taxes. - This is simply wrong. Boomer retirements may be significant, but they aren't the worst part of the entitlements growth pattern. The real problem is the burgeoning entitlement mentality and the race to get free stuff from Big Daddy. The "need" for higher taxes is already upon us and it's going to accelerate as obamacare kicks in. Then comes the declining tax base as retirements accelerate and as both job quality & job quantity decline because of employer reticence for going out on a limb with hiring.
The population of Japan is a nation of savers while the population of the US is a nation of debtors, much more dependent on their government's treasury for basic needs. This alone will expedite our push pass Japan when measuring debt to GDP. Debt to GDP in the US increased 30% between 2008 and 2012. If one truely sees the US debt burden doubling, it's not that difficult to see it tripling and spiraling out of conrol, especially when a more government dependent population results in reduced tax revenue and increased tax expenditures.
Good points regarding Japan's situation. Japan will be our template, but as derryb suggests, our landing will be harder because we as a country have had no inclination to save for the past 30 years. The debt isn't being destroyed, while the means to repay the debt is being destroyed. This is what cohodk needs to see in order to grasp what's going on in our economy.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Death of baby boomers = reduction in tax revenues = increase in government borrowing to compensate for the loss of income
Nope...I understand your point and truly believe the the US debt burden to double. But even a double would be less when compared to Japan which continues to have very low interest rates and has a declining population. US debt would probably have to be 3x GDP to cause the problems you envision. >>
Barring a cataclysmic event, cohodk's analysis can hold us for another 20 to 25 years. The likelihood of getting through the next quarter century without a cataclysmic event are not good though....
"The discipline of incremental investment over time may position one for explosive upside gains and reduced downside risk. Ensure that whatever it is being accumulated however, is fairly priced, and of increasing fundamental value."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>I'm really going to believe this crap from a video from: Russia Today? NOT >>
What part don't you believe? Most of it is old news that has been reported over the last year by many sources. It's a bad idea to reject information outright solely because of the source. I have followed RT on other issues and they actually seem to offer more genuine journalism than the media outlets with dedicated channels on your TV. As with anything, some skepticism is practical, but let's look at the elements of the story:
1. The Fed said it will take until 2020 to return Germany's gold. I have heard this from many sources and this is not new. Comment - if the gold is actually available and sitting in a vault, why would it take so long to return in this day and age of transportation technology? Red flag. 2. The fed would not allow Germany to inspect its gold. Sounds believable to me. The fed is highly secretive. Comment - Although unclear if this means anything, it arouses suspicion, because otherwise why not let them have a look? Certainly they are paying storage fees that would give them rights to at least see their material? Red flag. 3. The fed has a history of tricking clients out of their gold. This is probably the most questionable point made, but in my opinion is the least important. This can probably be corroborated somehow. 4. Germany is angry & baffled & nervous. Why wouldn't they be? 5. Germany's gold might not be in the fed's vaults. They make a good case. It is plausible.
Anything else?
I'm not saying to buy-in hook, line and sinker. Just more information to put in the back of your mental filing cabinet for when you hear other related news in the future.
The Russians seem to delight in mixing half-truths with truths at the expense of US mismanagement. On the other hand, it's a bad, bad deal when the US can't act responsibly or ethically.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i> Debt is being destroyed. Baby boomers are net consumers of the economy, not contributors. >>
Please provide something to back this up. I don't believe this for a moment. (but then perhaps you are including those who are drawing their social security benefits; money they have most likely paid into the system).
When I get the statement each year showing how much I have paid into the social security system up to now, my jaw drops. I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ?
The baby boomers are not the 'cause' of the problems we are having today, although it is very trendy to think so. The problems are the politicians and the looting of America.
"I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ?"
Yeah, let's end this argument here...just give us our money back and we'll call it a deal...and you can keep the 30 years of interest. What, you don't have the money...where'd it go? Spent it on social welfare programs you did? Pissed it away did you? What...the Germans are on the other line...OK, talk to you later.
<< <i> I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ? >>
As part of the younger generation, I would prefer not to pay into it knowing that I will NEVER see a penny from it. >>
I can't fault you one bit for this OperationButter. I know that years ago I tried to get out of it myself, but of course the powers would not let one do so. If I had any say about it, the Ponzi scheme would be dumped, peoples money returned who have paid into it, but of course the powers will not allow this to happen now either. Even if it were to happen, unfortunately there are those who do now depend on it, whether they paid into it or not, who would be in trouble without it.
I don't blame the younger generation, I don't blame the baby boomers; rather, the fault in my opinion lies with the ones who took our money and did not safeguard it. The politicians screwed up Social Security, they screwed up the US Postal Service with their pension plan funding mandates, and guess what?? We are now entrusting them to 'fix' our health care system. Anyone else get an uneasy feeling about this??
To keep this thread better on track, maybe I will go to the Omaha Coin Show tomorrow to see what interesting silver and gold I can find!
<< <i>were is coin show in Omaha any good dealers their >>
The show is actually at the Horseshoe Casino - Hilton Garden Inn, across the river at 2702 Mid America Drive, Council Bluffs IA. This is a monthly show, but I have not been to it since it has changed locations to the casino. Usually has about 35 dealers or so from a 4 state area, although once in a while one shows up from further away.
It's possible that the German gold story was floated out there for the benefit of all the G7/G20 nations that were short of physical gold, whether loaned, sold, or just plain stolen. This news story was taken as very bulllish just as the big boyz were about to crash gold into the dirt. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if the German's gold was never at risk and the story was just another ploy to keep the gold bugs as bagholders just before the April-June crashes. If the central banks wanted to free up as much gold as possible from the "little people" and speculative hedge funds, how would they do it? I think they did a pretty good job of it. I read one story where this hold gold smash was done for the benefit of the Chinese (and others) so that they can all stock up on gold reserves to make things more equal before the world-wide currency revaluation is put into place. Everyone to get a fair start at the table.
There are rumors out there (actually I have them from a fairly reliable source) that two-thirds of the twenty G20 nations have already decided to begin trade with gold backed notes. You can probably guess who the one-third are that don't want to see this. This is part of the reason for the April gold smash, to discredit this planned system before it gets any further steam.
<< <i> Debt is being destroyed. Baby boomers are net consumers of the economy, not contributors. >>
Please provide something to back this up. I don't believe this for a moment. (but then perhaps you are including those who are drawing their social security benefits; money they have most likely paid into the system).
When I get the statement each year showing how much I have paid into the social security system up to now, my jaw drops. I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ?
The baby boomers are not the 'cause' of the problems we are having today, although it is very trendy to think so. The problems are the politicians and the looting of America. >>
They baby boomers are living much longer than they were "supposed" to. The health care costs to keep them alive an extra few years will bankrupt this country.
The bulk of the boomers, born from 1952 to 1960 have never "suffered" in the way their forefathers had. No major wars, no severe economic conditions, all was good. They benefited from the end of the cold war and the integration of millions of East Europeans into the global economic engine. Also the shift of manufacturing from Japan to much cheaper China. Now the baby boomers are a drag on the economy. They are not buying houses and all that is involved with home ownership. They are not raising kids and all that comes with that. Im not saying the boomers are the problem, but that they are no longer contributing in the way they had during the 1980-2005 time period. This lack of contribution combined with the drag of health care costs is the reason why "projections" cannot and will not be net. But to take the "entitlements" away from this generation brings huge cries of foul.
Bottom line is when the boomers are largely gone from the system, the population demographics will be much more linear and easier to maintain. The children of the boomers will bear the burden. Lets just hope the boomers do not squander their wealth trying to live an extra 6 months and putting their children in financial ruin.
One need not look far to understand why Washington continues to stockpile ammunition.
LMFGAO.
So our congressmen are going to shoot us? The US military is made of of brothers, sisters, fathers, mothers, cousins, uncles, aunts. You think they are gong to turn their guns on their own family? You have no concept of understanding of our military.
Cohodk and derryb continue to have some good points. The summation of the BB generation by Cohodk is pretty much how I see it. Being in Cohodk's 1952-1960 BB window I'm not so inclined to say there was no "war" or hard times for us to experience. Having spent 10 years in the military from 1977-1987 on the front lines of the "Cold War" it seemed like threats were continually out there. One of my CO's who was pretty well versed in political affairs at the Naval War College was convinced that a significant war was coming in the later 1980's as they seemed to come every 20 yrs or so. Our military was certainly well prepared for War with the Reagan buildup during those years. I'm no military scholar but the Berlin Wall falling in 1989 as well as the collapse of the Russian economy removed the odds of a larger war for quite some time. But starting with Desert Storm there were no shortages of smaller scale and seemingly never-ending smaller conflicts that some of those late stage boomers did participate in. I see this whole aging of the boomers as simply the final stage of a cycle that has repeated for hundreds of years. Some have called it the fourth turning (ie the winter of a typical 80-100 year demographic cycle last seen during the Great Depression). The excesses of the WW2 generation and their baby boomer offspring do need to be cancelled out. We're also coming into the cross-hairs of 60 and 120 yr economic cycle bottomings due in 2013-2014. Even Armstrong has this cycle topping out in 2015 and then performing a final descent into 2020. His real estate model forecasts a winding down of real estate into 2033. So far, the QE of the Central Banks has been able to delay the final effects and cleansing that are overdue.
@mhammerman: I got the chance to read your response and it was a little harsh but we're all entitled to our opinion. I went back to school several years ago to get an MBA. In one of the courses we studied healthcare costs, it is a fact that nearly 40% of ALL healthcare spending occurs in last 12 months of a persons life. At that time (2010) that was over $1 trillion/year being spent in the last year of a person's life The figure rises every year. Medicare/Medicaid were then "the gold standard" for health care providers obtaining maximum payout.
<< <i> "So far, the QE of the Central Banks has been able to delay the final effects and cleansing that are overdue." >>
Indeed. QE, ZIRP, and deficit spending have worked as novocaine in the dentist's office. They don't kill the pain, they just postpone it. Once the pain is allowed to be fully felt, we can gain and rise again.
Why zero percent interest rate (ZIRP) policy will continue: Why QE will not only continue but likely increase: Why PMs will exceed their all-time highs:
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Hummmmm...first time I've seen this topic in the mainstream in a good while. We talked about it here a year or so ago and the summation was that it wasn't a good idea. I wonder if they would reinstitute the gold standard for currency?
<< <i>Hummmmm...first time I've seen this topic in the mainstream in a good while. We talked about it here a year or so ago and the summation was that it wasn't a good idea. I wonder if they would reinstitute the gold standard for currency?
Laggards Alcoa, BofA and HP are to be removed from the Dow while 3 other future winners are to be added. Have to keep the DOW party going. Welcome aboard NKE, V, and GS.
They baby boomers are living much longer than they were "supposed" to. The health care costs to keep them alive an extra few years will bankrupt this country.
The bulk of the boomers, born from 1952 to 1960 have never "suffered" in the way their forefathers had. No major wars, no severe economic conditions, all was good. They benefited from the end of the cold war and the integration of millions of East Europeans into the global economic engine. Also the shift of manufacturing from Japan to much cheaper China. Now the baby boomers are a drag on the economy. They are not buying houses and all that is involved with home ownership. They are not raising kids and all that comes with that. Im not saying the boomers are the problem, but that they are no longer contributing in the way they had during the 1980-2005 time period. This lack of contribution combined with the drag of health care costs is the reason why "projections" cannot and will not be net. But to take the "entitlements" away from this generation brings huge cries of foul.
Bottom line is when the boomers are largely gone from the system, the population demographics will be much more linear and easier to maintain. The children of the boomers will bear the burden. Lets just hope the boomers do not squander their wealth trying to live an extra 6 months and putting their children in financial ruin. >>
You obviously didn't lose any friends during Tet, I wonder how they would feel about your statement, after all, it wasn't a "major war."
Until the money was almost gone we spent over $8000 a month for several years keeping my 96 year old mother in law in a nursing facility. where she still resides, the state takes her SS and pension every month, and makes up the difference "keeping her alive."
Myself, and a number of contemporaries lost our jobs in '74-'75. It took many of us years to dig out from the debt.
I would bet you are a person who has never seen any kind of hardship.
<< <i>Laggards Alcoa, BofA and HP are to be removed from the Dow while 3 other future winners are to be added. Have to keep the DOW party going. Welcome aboard NKE, V, and GS.
Brian, and others is the DJIA becoming less meaningful? Of course it's the top announcement on any radio station reporting the stock market but beyond that does it accurately reflect anything significant other than what it is?
IE is becoming more a notion of normalcy rather than a barometer of the stock market?
I guess think of a meteorologist say we are at 100% of normal precipitation...wtf is "normal"? rather than saying 100% of average, which still sounds funny but is accurate.
So are changes made to keep the market look balanced (normal) or changes made to balance (average) out the market. Sorry if this isn't lucid. I haven't had a , yet today. LOL
Yellowkid, you are probably one of the first baby boomers--born before 1952. The bulk was born in 1956-1962, making them no more than 19 in 1975 at the end of Vietnam. The bulk (66%) of the deaths in Vietnam occurred in 1967-1969. Assuming those who died were no older than 18 (which of course many were), the latest they could have been born was 1949-1951 (the earliest boomers). There were 21.78 million boomers born between 1946-1951 and 56 million after 1951. The majority of boomers never saw Vietnam. I do have many relatives who did see Vietnam.
You are correct, I never had to suffer hardship other than poor job prospects, underpaid employment, financial setback, ect, like 80%+ of America. I never fought in a World War where millions died. I never suffered through plagues. I never suffered through a depression. Very few Americans alive today have suffered the way previous generations have.
$8000 a month for nursing care? Why do we as Americans put up with this? Why do we allow ourselves to be fleeced like this? We allow it in college education health insurance also. Someday we'll make a stand.
Comments
<< <i>can grow forever if but not as a percent of GDP
hmmmmm.....................at what point will it stop growing as a percent of GDP (re: Japan)? And that isn't necessarily the question. It seems that the question ought to involve what happens to the economy at the point when the growth in debt stops increasing. >>
Debt will stop growing-in any terms. The economy will flourish. Not gonna happen next year, but it will happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Debt will stop growing-in any terms. The economy will flourish. Not gonna happen next year, but it will happen. >>
And what kind of event will change 45 years of history? A good event?
Maybe Washington will cut it's spending if half.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I disagree. Without changes in government spending, the trends will continue until the system fails. The economy isn't growing that fast, if at all. It's not hard to figure out. Believe it or not.
I knew it would happen.
"Treasury Secretary Lew sent a letter to House Speaker John Boehner saying he was beginning to implement what he called "the standard set of extraordinary measures" to prevent the Treasury from exceeding the legal limit on the federal debt.
Since Lew sent that letter--announcing that he would use "extraordinary measures"--the debt has remained stuck at exactly $16,699,396,000,000 for 87 straight days.
That includes all 31 days in July when Lew's Treasury says it was running a $98 billion deficit.
When Lew stops using "extraordinary measures" to keep the debt at exactly $16,699,396,000,000, the government will have another debt-limit crisis."
Well, that's one way to stop the debt from growing.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I knew it would happen.
The death of the baby boomers will be the change. Good depends on whether you are a baby boomer or not.
Without changes in government spending, the trends will continue until the system fails.
This will be the changes in Govt spending.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And what kind of event will change 45 years of history? A good event?
The death of the baby boomers will be the change. Good depends on whether you are a baby boomer or not.
Without changes in government spending, the trends will continue until the system fails.
This will be the changes in Govt spending. >>
Death of baby boomers = reduction in tax revenues = increase in government borrowing to compensate for the loss of income. As a greater burden of taxes shifts to a growing number that are dependent on tax funded entitlements and not paying taxes government debt will soar. Those who see a coming reduction in taxes or in government spending should spend their free time on the comic book forum.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Many geezers are still working...tough for the youngsters waiting for the positions to open up but the youngsters don't have enough experience to hump the load on their own.
Lots of geezers are looking for retirement...but they have been paying into the system for 30 years or so and it's not like they haven't been contributing to SS and Medicare all that time. The juice boxers...not so much. Calling out ss and medicare as entitlements, like ebt's and obamaphones seems inappropriate.
Geezers been stashing cash and real estate and stocks and gold and it is intended mostly for their grand kids; children...not so much.
If the fed squeezes the boomers w/too much obamacare, they will simply retire and take the medicare @ 65 instead of working till 70...code for "Bite me!"
The greatest personal wealth transfer in the history of the world will be completed in by the Boomers in about 20 more years; patience Grasshopper.
"Hey buddy, can you spare an ol' Boomer an ASE?"
Nope.
1. The boomers are no longer contributing to the tax roles as 10,000 retire everyday.
2. Population of USA will continue to grow meaning increased tax revenues.
3. Death of boomers will reduce entitlements thus reducing need for higher taxes.
4. Boomer estates will be passed onto their children. These estates will either be taxed or liquidated to reduce the burden on the next generation.
I understand your point and truly believe the the US debt burden to double. But even a double would be less when compared to Japan which continues to have very low interest rates and has a declining population. US debt would probably have to be 3x GDP to cause the problems you envision.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Death of baby boomers = reduction in tax revenues = increase in government borrowing to compensate for the loss of income
Nope.
1. The boomers are no longer contributing to the tax roles as 10,000 retire everyday.
2. Population of USA will continue to grow meaning increased tax revenues.
3. Death of boomers will reduce entitlements thus reducing need for higher taxes.
4. Boomer estates will be passed onto their children. These estates will either be taxed or liquidated to reduce the burden on the next generation.
I understand your point and truly believe the the US debt burden to double. But even a double would be less when compared to Japan which continues to have very low interest rates and has a declining population. US debt would probably have to be 3x GDP to cause the problems you envision. >>
1. With the exception of social security, a program they funded, most retirees send more money to Washington than they receive from Washngton.
2. Record food stamps and other taxpayer entitlements are being paid. Unemployment "compensation" and disability income have become the new career path while taxpayer funded cellphones the new status symbol. A new birth to a family in or near poverty means more money from Washington, almost as if it were a reward. I envision the day my tax dollars guarantee all Americans the right to check email (free computer and internet service) and the right to access the news (Free hi def TV and DirecTV). A growing population in this country has become a need for more tax spending when it should be resulting in more tax revenue.
3. See number 2. The primary entitlement to retired boomers is Social Security Supplemental Income, a program they funded.
4. Estates under $1M do not pay a death tax. This includes most all of the boomers.
Retirees/baby boomers are not the financial burden on our social system and most of them currently pay taxes even though retired. Death of most retirees is a net long term loss to the tax collectors. The growing poverty level of the US population equates to higher government expenditures. The population of Japan is a nation of savers while the population of the US is a nation of debtors, much more dependent on their government's treasury for basic needs. This alone will expedite our push pass Japan when measuring debt to GDP. Debt to GDP in the US increased 30% between 2008 and 2012. If one truely sees the US debt burden doubling, it's not that difficult to see it tripling and spiraling out of conrol, especially when a more government dependent population results in reduced tax revenue and increased tax expenditures.
Boomers/retirees are far from the burden on the treasury. The true burden is reckless spending to continue lining the pockets of reckless spenders and the reckless entitlement promises (Detroit?) made by these reckless spenders to garner the votes necessary to remain in office to continue having their pockets lined. Political corruption and unchecked greed, at the expense of income producing taxpayers, and as history has so many times shown, will once again be the downfall of a great nation. We have reached the point of no return in that the majority of voters are now dependent on Washington and will continue to fill its offices with entitlement promising crooks. The declining boomer population has nothing to do with a growing soverign debt problem and if anything will expedite it.
Our out of control national debt will be met in two ways. Higher tax rates for those that do pay taxes and increased borrowing (QE) from our privately owned central bank which is nothing short of a conglomerate of our Too Big Too Fail banks. Tax policy will lead to a nation of those who have most everything and those who have little or nothing. Middle class will become extinct, the great transfer of wealth continues on schedule. Continued borrowing will lead to financial insolvency or at best a currency worth next to nothing. Which ever occurs first is irrelevent, the consequences are a bankrupt nation and a very unhappy population. One need not look far to understand why Washington continues to stockpile ammunition.
Those that are not stacking to protect what wealth they do have are not paying close enough attention.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
3. Death of boomers will reduce entitlements thus reducing need for higher taxes. - This is simply wrong. Boomer retirements may be significant, but they aren't the worst part of the entitlements growth pattern. The real problem is the burgeoning entitlement mentality and the race to get free stuff from Big Daddy. The "need" for higher taxes is already upon us and it's going to accelerate as obamacare kicks in. Then comes the declining tax base as retirements accelerate and as both job quality & job quantity decline because of employer reticence for going out on a limb with hiring.
The population of Japan is a nation of savers while the population of the US is a nation of debtors, much more dependent on their government's treasury for basic needs. This alone will expedite our push pass Japan when measuring debt to GDP. Debt to GDP in the US increased 30% between 2008 and 2012. If one truely sees the US debt burden doubling, it's not that difficult to see it tripling and spiraling out of conrol, especially when a more government dependent population results in reduced tax revenue and increased tax expenditures.
Good points regarding Japan's situation. Japan will be our template, but as derryb suggests, our landing will be harder because we as a country have had no inclination to save for the past 30 years. The debt isn't being destroyed, while the means to repay the debt is being destroyed. This is what cohodk needs to see in order to grasp what's going on in our economy.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Death of baby boomers = reduction in tax revenues = increase in government borrowing to compensate for the loss of income
Nope...I understand your point and truly believe the the US debt burden to double. But even a double would be less when compared to Japan which continues to have very low interest rates and has a declining population. US debt would probably have to be 3x GDP to cause the problems you envision. >>
Barring a cataclysmic event, cohodk's analysis can hold us for another 20 to 25 years. The likelihood of getting through the next quarter century without a cataclysmic event are not good though....
Debt is being destroyed. Baby boomers are net consumers of the economy, not contributors.
Social security as it is now is unsustainable which is exactly why it will change.
There could be a cataclysmic event that speeds the process. This will be good news to those of similar age as myself, Bailey, and Proofcollection.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"The discipline of incremental investment over time may position one for explosive upside gains and reduced downside risk. Ensure that whatever it is being accumulated however, is fairly priced, and of increasing fundamental value."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
VIDEO
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Gold Gone? Germany baffled as Fed bars access to bullion
VIDEO >>
Linky no worky Fixed it for you
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold Gone? Germany baffled as Fed bars access to bullion
VIDEO >>
Linky no worky Fixed it for you >>
I'm really going to believe this crap from a video from: Russia Today? NOT
<< <i>I'm really going to believe this crap from a video from: Russia Today? NOT >>
What part don't you believe? Most of it is old news that has been reported over the last year by many sources.
It's a bad idea to reject information outright solely because of the source. I have followed RT on other issues and they actually seem to offer more genuine journalism than the media outlets with dedicated channels on your TV. As with anything, some skepticism is practical, but let's look at the elements of the story:
1. The Fed said it will take until 2020 to return Germany's gold. I have heard this from many sources and this is not new.
Comment - if the gold is actually available and sitting in a vault, why would it take so long to return in this day and age of transportation technology? Red flag.
2. The fed would not allow Germany to inspect its gold. Sounds believable to me. The fed is highly secretive.
Comment - Although unclear if this means anything, it arouses suspicion, because otherwise why not let them have a look? Certainly they are paying storage fees that would give them rights to at least see their material? Red flag.
3. The fed has a history of tricking clients out of their gold. This is probably the most questionable point made, but in my opinion is the least important. This can probably be corroborated somehow.
4. Germany is angry & baffled & nervous. Why wouldn't they be?
5. Germany's gold might not be in the fed's vaults. They make a good case. It is plausible.
Anything else?
I'm not saying to buy-in hook, line and sinker. Just more information to put in the back of your mental filing cabinet for when you hear other related news in the future.
I knew it would happen.
Excellent comment.
This Germany story gets more hilarious every time its rehashed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
Debt is being destroyed. Baby boomers are net consumers of the economy, not contributors.
>>
Please provide something to back this up. I don't believe this for a moment. (but then perhaps you are including those who are drawing their social security benefits; money they have most likely paid into the system).
When I get the statement each year showing how much I have paid into the social security system up to now, my jaw drops. I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ?
The baby boomers are not the 'cause' of the problems we are having today, although it is very trendy to think so. The problems are the politicians and the looting of America.
Yeah, let's end this argument here...just give us our money back and we'll call it a deal...and you can keep the 30 years of interest. What, you don't have the money...where'd it go? Spent it on social welfare programs you did? Pissed it away did you? What...the Germans are on the other line...OK, talk to you later.
<< <i> I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ? >>
As part of the younger generation, I would prefer not to pay into it knowing that I will NEVER see a penny from it.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>
<< <i> I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ? >>
As part of the younger generation, I would prefer not to pay into it knowing that I will NEVER see a penny from it. >>
I can't fault you one bit for this OperationButter. I know that years ago I tried to get out of it myself, but of course the powers would not let one do so. If I had any say about it, the Ponzi scheme would be dumped, peoples money returned who have paid into it, but of course the powers will not allow this to happen now either. Even if it were to happen, unfortunately there are those who do now depend on it, whether they paid into it or not, who would be in trouble without it.
I don't blame the younger generation, I don't blame the baby boomers; rather, the fault in my opinion lies with the ones who took our money and did not safeguard it. The politicians screwed up Social Security, they screwed up the US Postal Service with their pension plan funding mandates, and guess what?? We are now entrusting them to 'fix' our health care system. Anyone else get an uneasy feeling about this??
To keep this thread better on track, maybe I will go to the Omaha Coin Show tomorrow to see what interesting silver and gold I can find!
any good dealers their
<< <i>Ensure that whatever it is being accumulated however, is fairly priced, and of increasing fundamental value."
Excellent comment.
This Germany story gets more hilarious every time its rehashed. >>
Iz no good when krauts, comrades and feds be involved. No?
comrade renski.
<< <i>were is coin show in Omaha
any good dealers their >>
The show is actually at the Horseshoe Casino - Hilton Garden Inn, across the river at 2702 Mid America Drive, Council Bluffs IA. This is a monthly show, but I have not been to it since it has changed locations to the casino. Usually has about 35 dealers or so from a 4 state area, although once in a while one shows up from further away.
This news story was taken as very bulllish just as the big boyz were about to crash gold into the dirt. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if the German's gold was never at risk
and the story was just another ploy to keep the gold bugs as bagholders just before the April-June crashes. If the central banks wanted to free up as much gold as possible from
the "little people" and speculative hedge funds, how would they do it? I think they did a pretty good job of it. I read one story where this hold gold smash was done for the benefit
of the Chinese (and others) so that they can all stock up on gold reserves to make things more equal before the world-wide currency revaluation is put into place. Everyone to get a
fair start at the table.
There are rumors out there (actually I have them from a fairly reliable source) that two-thirds of the twenty G20 nations have already decided to begin trade with gold backed notes. You
can probably guess who the one-third are that don't want to see this. This is part of the reason for the April gold smash, to discredit this planned system before it gets any further
steam.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Debt is being destroyed. Baby boomers are net consumers of the economy, not contributors.
>>
Please provide something to back this up. I don't believe this for a moment. (but then perhaps you are including those who are drawing their social security benefits; money they have most likely paid into the system).
When I get the statement each year showing how much I have paid into the social security system up to now, my jaw drops. I suppose the younger generations thinks that I am not entitled to get this money back.. ?
The baby boomers are not the 'cause' of the problems we are having today, although it is very trendy to think so. The problems are the politicians and the looting of America. >>
They baby boomers are living much longer than they were "supposed" to. The health care costs to keep them alive an extra few years will bankrupt this country.
The bulk of the boomers, born from 1952 to 1960 have never "suffered" in the way their forefathers had. No major wars, no severe economic conditions, all was good. They benefited from the end of the cold war and the integration of millions of East Europeans into the global economic engine. Also the shift of manufacturing from Japan to much cheaper China. Now the baby boomers are a drag on the economy. They are not buying houses and all that is involved with home ownership. They are not raising kids and all that comes with that. Im not saying the boomers are the problem, but that they are no longer contributing in the way they had during the 1980-2005 time period. This lack of contribution combined with the drag of health care costs is the reason why "projections" cannot and will not be net. But to take the "entitlements" away from this generation brings huge cries of foul.
Bottom line is when the boomers are largely gone from the system, the population demographics will be much more linear and easier to maintain. The children of the boomers will bear the burden. Lets just hope the boomers do not squander their wealth trying to live an extra 6 months and putting their children in financial ruin.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
LMFGAO.
So our congressmen are going to shoot us? The US military is made of of brothers, sisters, fathers, mothers, cousins, uncles, aunts. You think they are gong to turn their guns on their own family? You have no concept of understanding of our military.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I'm not so inclined to say there was no "war" or hard times for us to experience. Having spent 10 years in the military from 1977-1987 on the front lines of the "Cold War" it seemed
like threats were continually out there. One of my CO's who was pretty well versed in political affairs at the Naval War College was convinced that a significant war was coming in the
later 1980's as they seemed to come every 20 yrs or so. Our military was certainly well prepared for War with the Reagan buildup during those years. I'm no military scholar but the
Berlin Wall falling in 1989 as well as the collapse of the Russian economy removed the odds of a larger war for quite some time. But starting with Desert Storm there were no shortages
of smaller scale and seemingly never-ending smaller conflicts that some of those late stage boomers did participate in. I see this whole aging of the boomers as simply the final stage of
a cycle that has repeated for hundreds of years. Some have called it the fourth turning (ie the winter of a typical 80-100 year demographic cycle last seen during the Great
Depression). The excesses of the WW2 generation and their baby boomer offspring do need to be cancelled out. We're also coming into the cross-hairs of 60 and 120 yr economic cycle
bottomings due in 2013-2014. Even Armstrong has this cycle topping out in 2015 and then performing a final descent into 2020. His real estate model forecasts a winding down of real
estate into 2033. So far, the QE of the Central Banks has been able to delay the final effects and cleansing that are overdue.
@roadrunner:
<< <i> "So far, the QE of the Central Banks has been able to delay the final effects and cleansing that are overdue." >>
Indeed. QE, ZIRP, and deficit spending have worked as novocaine in the dentist's office. They don't kill the pain, they just postpone it. Once the pain is allowed to be fully felt, we can gain and rise again.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Why QE will not only continue but likely increase:
Why PMs will exceed their all-time highs:
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>
Depressing
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
The $800+ BILL per year steepening ramp.....or the $800 BILL per year doesn't buy what it used to chart.
Why do we need 8-10% year monetary growth for the past 17-18 years when the population growth is averaging 0.7% per year? What's the 10X leverage for?
Stack 'em
Constitutional Convention
<< <i>Hummmmm...first time I've seen this topic in the mainstream in a good while. We talked about it here a year or so ago and the summation was that it wasn't a good idea. I wonder if they would reinstitute the gold standard for currency?
Stack 'em
Constitutional Convention >>
It's just not possible.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>Cohodk says' that's nothing to worry about. Everything is going to be just fine. >>
We've been here, done that. And we're still alive.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
linky
<< <i>Cohodk says' that's nothing to worry about. Everything is going to be just fine. >>
<< <i>We've been here, done that. And we're still alive. >>
so are the Zimababwians.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
]
They baby boomers are living much longer than they were "supposed" to. The health care costs to keep them alive an extra few years will bankrupt this country.
The bulk of the boomers, born from 1952 to 1960 have never "suffered" in the way their forefathers had. No major wars, no severe economic conditions, all was good. They benefited from the end of the cold war and the integration of millions of East Europeans into the global economic engine. Also the shift of manufacturing from Japan to much cheaper China. Now the baby boomers are a drag on the economy. They are not buying houses and all that is involved with home ownership. They are not raising kids and all that comes with that. Im not saying the boomers are the problem, but that they are no longer contributing in the way they had during the 1980-2005 time period. This lack of contribution combined with the drag of health care costs is the reason why "projections" cannot and will not be net. But to take the "entitlements" away from this generation brings huge cries of foul.
Bottom line is when the boomers are largely gone from the system, the population demographics will be much more linear and easier to maintain. The children of the boomers will bear the burden. Lets just hope the boomers do not squander their wealth trying to live an extra 6 months and putting their children in financial ruin. >>
You obviously didn't lose any friends during Tet, I wonder how they would feel about your statement, after all, it wasn't a "major war."
Until the money was almost gone we spent over $8000 a month for several years keeping my 96 year old mother in law in a nursing facility. where she still resides, the state takes her SS and pension every month, and makes up the difference "keeping her alive."
Myself, and a number of contemporaries lost our jobs in '74-'75. It took many of us years to dig out from the debt.
I would bet you are a person who has never seen any kind of hardship.
<< <i>Laggards Alcoa, BofA and HP are to be removed from the Dow while 3 other future winners are to be added. Have to keep the DOW party going. Welcome aboard NKE, V, and GS.
linky >>
Brian, and others
IE is becoming more a notion of normalcy rather than a barometer of the stock market?
I guess think of a meteorologist say we are at 100% of normal precipitation...wtf is "normal"? rather than saying 100% of average, which still sounds funny but is accurate.
So are changes made to keep the market look balanced (normal) or changes made to balance (average) out the market. Sorry if this isn't lucid. I haven't had a
You are correct, I never had to suffer hardship other than poor job prospects, underpaid employment, financial setback, ect, like 80%+ of America. I never fought in a World War where millions died. I never suffered through plagues. I never suffered through a depression. Very few Americans alive today have suffered the way previous generations have.
$8000 a month for nursing care? Why do we as Americans put up with this? Why do we allow ourselves to be fleeced like this? We allow it in college education health insurance also. Someday we'll make a stand.
Or maybe we are all due to suffer?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong