Thanks, 1jester. Willie's writing style drives me up the wall, but I consider him my No.2 advisor, right behind Jim Sinclair. I made some adjustments today, based on this current letter. I had *almost* let my guard down concerning the banking system.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
No need to thank me, guys! I also consider the Golden Jackass one of the top 3 sources of accurate intel. JS is the current number 1, due to the untimely demise of my previous top source, the late Christopher Story (who can possibly replace him?!).
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>If the game doesn't change, then change the way you play the game >>
Well said. And yes, it can be done. Paper makes it possible and profitable regardless of price direction. >>
Profitable.....at least until they put down strict controls on paper flows. Cyprus has made it quite clear that this is the next step. If you have paper assets within the system they are at high risk. Paper profits are only good if you can get them out of the system when you want.
And physical is only good as long as you are allowed to own or trade it without prosecution, persecution or penalty. All assets carry some risk. Knowing the associated risk and staying informed of events that can and do affect that risk are important with any asset. A prime example is the recent theft of savings in Cyprus. Banking account holders every where (especially in the EU) should take notice and re-evaluate their cash in the bank position. I wonder how many stackers think that because there is no counterparty risk that there is no risk at all?
Paper and physical metal each have a purpose. This is why I own both. One of the advantages of paper metal is that I can dump it much quicker than I can physical. Another is that I can profit from PM price moves without the hassles of premiums, delivery, storage, or shipping. The big weakness with paper is assuming you will be able to exchange it for physical; never buy it for this purpose.
Personally, I don't care if the issuers of my paper metal actually have the metal. I'm not investing in that; I'm betting on price swings.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I'm just as worried if my brokers and bankers will have the cash/paper to pay me should I desire that. Precedent has already been set that depositors come last, even after derivative holders are paid. Who would have thought just a few short years ago that "bail ins" would become major banking/government policy?
The broad exclusion of the United States guarantees a Third World flavor and stench for the North American core, with a Mad Max overtone and a Dachau closet.
<< <i>No need to thank me, guys! I also consider the Golden Jackass one of the top 3 sources of accurate intel. JS is the current number 1, due to the untimely demise of my previous top source, the late Christopher Story (who can possibly replace him?!).
>>
The truth and analysis of all three mentioned above should be taken seriously.
Peace be with you and Happy Easter, celebrating one man that changed the world.
I think when Sinclair uses the word mindf*uck to express his frustration with the market and his crybaby CIGA's in his newsletters he doesn't understand what's going on either and has underestimated or ignored many factors.
Sinclair, Schiff, and many others of the gold bugs, continually tell the story of how powerful the bankers, and money managers are, but always seemed shocked when the prices are manipulated and collapse.
Why is it that when their price targets for the metals are reached they always increase the targets?
Lets face facts the general public knows hardly anything about the metals markets, and have a great many other things to worry about in their lives. Gold and silver are a fine hedges against ones other paper assets including cash, but getting your bunker ready and put everything you have into the metals is going to lead some folks to big disappointments.
The world runs on paper money and there is no way to change that. We here in the U.S. and our European friends are never going to a gold standard, the world and is its populations could not operate on the paltry amounts of these metals available.
How big a deal is it for the Fed, who is currently creating $40 billion plus per month, to manipulate the metals markets if they chose to do that? So no, the price of gold is not headed to $5,000.
My personal feeling is that gold will eventually be adjusted upward in the market to its inflation adjusted price of somewhere around $2,450.
<< <i>Sinclair, Schiff, and many others of the gold bugs, continually tell the story of how powerful the bankers, and money managers are, but always seemed shocked when the prices are manipulated and collapse. >>
many believe they are correct about the banksters. Somebody has the power and those that control the money seem to be the most logical choice to control those that want money. I don't get the impression that either Sinclair or Schiff are ever shocked about metal price collapse, they just use each occasion to strengthen their case.
<< <i>Why is it that when their price targets for the metals are reached they always increase the targets? >>
because they see the causes of higher prices still remain and in many cases have gotten worse.
<< <i>Lets face facts the general public knows hardly anything about the metals markets, and have a great many other things to worry about in their lives. Gold and silver are a fine hedges against ones other paper assets including cash, but getting your bunker ready and put everything you have into the metals is going to lead some folks to big disappointments. >>
most stackers are in it for the dollar protection (and hopefully some real gains) and not for the end of the world as we know it.
<< <i>The world runs on paper money and there is no way to change that. We here in the U.S. and our European friends are never going to a gold standard, the world and is its populations could not operate on the paltry amounts of these metals available. >>
History has shown on numerous occasions that paper (fiat) money has a life span before its creators destroy it. Very recent history shows not only have efforts not been made to prevent its destruction, but that the destruction mode has intensified. While stackers appreciate the restraint that a gold standard puts on money creation, they understand that it's not going to happen and because of this they need the protection of PMs. I'm a stacker and I don't support a gold standard. The standard, not the metal, is a barbarious relic in a modern economic enviornment.
<< <i>How big a deal is it for the Fed, who is currently creating $40 billion plus per month, to manipulate the metals markets if they chose to do that? So no, the price of gold is not headed to $5,000. >>
FED is actually creating about twice that each month and there is no end in sight. Understanding that they do in fact control metal prices (along with prices in many other markets) allows the stacker, at a great discount, to prepare for the day the FED loses that control. Note the FED will also eventually lose control of other markets (stocks, interest rates, treasury bonds) as well. Loss of control in any of those markets will also make metals a good place to be sitting.
<< <i>My personal feeling is that gold will eventually be adjusted upward in the market to its inflation adjusted price of somewhere around $2,450. >>
Gold price historically adjusts to what is necessary to maintain purchasing power of the currency used to purchase it. I like to think of it as dollar insurance.
If one looks at what's happening around the world to the money that people hold it makes sense to reduce money exposure as much as possible. Banks are now stealing part of it (Cyprus, who's next?) and retirement savings are being destroyed because of (1) artifically low interest rates set by the FED and (2)devaluing of the money via increasing its supply. My choice in reducing dollar exposure is with PMs. There are other ways to do it you just have to choose what you think is best. All that said, the dollar does have its moments such as now as fear (or the FED?) is currently driving investors to cash, but those moments never seem to offer any lasting protection. For centuries gold has provided lasting protection.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>Gold price historically adjusts to what is necessary to maintain purchasing power of the currency used to purchase it. I like to think of it as dollar insurance. >>
That's all it is. The fed will lose control eventually, and sooner rather than later. It ALWAYS happens. There is no plausible scenario to regain control of the current worldwide economic situation.
thanks GOLDSAINT and derryb. Good point(s) (which I lean) and counter points (which I always thoughtfully consider) always appreciate both your posts here.
<< <i>There is no plausible scenario to regain control of the current worldwide economic situation. >>
I kind of misspoke. I intended to say, there is no plausible scenario where the dominant world economies (save perhaps China) turn things around to achieve a sustainable, stable fiscal environment. No country in the world has ever accomplished this feat. It can only get worse, not better.
<< <i>I believe China is actually in worse shape than US. What do they have that is better? >>
I didn't know if China had a massive national debt which is why I put the caveat in my statement. I just checked that their debt/GDP ratio is about 40%, which isn't that great but I imagine that China - even with its other problems - does have the fiscal and political ability to recover to a susntainable economic situation. Although like all other countries they are probably too far gone as well, esp with all of their other complicating factors.
Chinese have 400 million people who have never seen a dr. No friendly neighboring countries Unbreathable air in most major cities 100 million vacant housing units A GDP % growth rate equal to their counterfeit production Thousands of swine learning to swim in the rivers they use for fresh water
That's alrealdy one half of typical QE program. How comes this one isn't labeled QE4? This is about $150 BILL/month....not just $85 BILL/month. In 4-1/2 years the money base has increased from $850 BILL to $3.05 TRILL. This is the bankster's casino, margin, or seed money for their crazy bets.
<< <i>I believe China is actually in worse shape than US. >>
agree
At present China ether exports or dies. In another way it can also be said that the Chinese way of infrastructure of exporting (environmental and labor abuse) may slowly be killing China.
<< <i>I believe China is actually in worse shape than US. >>
agree
At present China ether exports or dies. In another way it can also be said that the Chinese way of infrastructure of exporting (environmental and labor abuse) may slowly be killing China. >>
Interesting that it can be contemplated whether one country (the whole country!) is in "better or worse shape" than another.
Is California in better or worse "shape" than Texas, Michigan, or New York? How about Illinois, better or worse "shape" than North Carolina, Hawaii, or Oregon?
Depends on what all you're measuring, and who you're asking I guess. I'd spend time debating the subject with friends, acquaintences, and strangers, but there are all those damned entertaining cat videos to watch and angry birds that need launching, who's got the time.
China’s desire is to become the worlds reserve currency. Their four largest banks are now three times larger than our four largest. Currently one out of every eight transactions around the world are now paid with Yuan’s .
AFAIK China owns less than 10% of this debt and one needs to understand (at least I feel this way I could be wrong) is what would happen if China called it's "loan"
The yuan would rise in value making exports more expensive to buy.
China won't free float it's yaun because the value would rise possibly too fast.
Manipulation? yeah however their banking system is still much more restrictive in what they can and cannot do even if they are a communist country.
There is still a canyon of space between economic social classes in China.
and to GS...yeah it IS their plan >>>give it another decade to see if they are successful. It can't happen overnight or even in a few years.
I don't want to underestimate their world power but I feel it is still overestimated by many...(of course MHO)
China’s desire is to become the worlds reserve currency
It takes A LOT MORE than a bunch of gold to become a reserve currency. Even if China had all the worlds gold, they wouldnt be close to reserve currency status. As much as you might not trust the US govt, would you trust the Chinese?
<< <i>China’s desire is to become the worlds reserve currency
It takes A LOT MORE than a bunch of gold to become a reserve currency. Even if China had all the worlds gold, they wouldnt be close to reserve currency status. As much as you might not trust the US govt, would you trust the Chinese? >>
It's about trusting the currency to hold its value.
Reserve currency status does not require gold backing, it is a brokered deal with exporters. It begins with establishing new trade payment agreements and can be enhanced by having something to back it with besides faith - things that are well underway in China. The dollar was brokered initially between the US and Saudi Arabia (and OPEC) and as the world reserve currency it was initially backed by gold. History will show that removing its gold backing was its downfall. Gold backing ensured its stability. Stability will be a key ingredient of the next reserve currency and the reason it replaced the last one.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>China’s desire is to become the worlds reserve currency
It takes A LOT MORE than a bunch of gold to become a reserve currency. Even if China had all the worlds gold, they wouldnt be close to reserve currency status. As much as you might not trust the US govt, would you trust the Chinese? >>
For now, with their estimated 2,000-3,000 tonnes of gold, they are happy to be a reserve currency for several individual countries....and adding to it all the time. If it ever is determined that the US doesn't have the bulk of the 8,133 tonnes of gold it claims to have, that would be a dagger to reserve currency status. I don't trust either govt fwiw. Both are still paper currencies.
"An inflationary leveraging perpetuates imbalances while deflationary deleveraging threatens the survival of the banking system at large. Hopes for organic credit growth, which would promote the former, are now fleeting. This, in turn, engenders the threat of the latter. Continued ZIRP, increasing asset purchases and a steep decline in the universal efficacy of it all suggests the time to press the reset button is quickly approaching. May to December 2013 may turn out to be the darkness before the dawn; a time we look back upon and choose to forget."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Is it heresy to even talk about bit coins? Seems kind of crazy. The ultimate currency that can't be manipulated by paperboys or banksters? Other than being totally imaginary, they do have value. What is a bit coin
a bit coin is something that you "cannot put in your pocket" (Ron Paul), hold in your hand or put in your safe. To me that spells c-o-u-n-t-e-r-p-a-r-t-y r-i-s-k.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Eldorado Gold misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line (7.59 +0.09)
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.12; revenues rose 24.5% year/year to $338.1 mln vs the $338.4 mln consensus. Other highlights: Gold sales of 189,346 ounces at an average gold price of $1,622 per ounce (Q1 2012 sales of 150,661 ounces at an average gold price of $1,707). Gold production of 163,768 ounces at an average cash operating cost of $505 per ounce (Q1 2012 gold production - 155,535 ounces at $452 per ounce).
"In the energy market investigation, the enforcement staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, intends to recommend that the agency pursue an action against JPMorgan over its trading in California and Michigan electric markets. The 70-page document also took aim at a top bank executive, Blythe Masters."
"The regulatory document cites her supposed “knowledge and approval of schemes” carried out by a group of energy traders in Houston. The agency’s investigators claimed that Ms. Masters had “falsely” denied under oath her awareness of the problems and said that JPMorgan had made “scores of false and misleading statements and material omissions” to authorities, the document shows."
Masters is the Wall Street hotshot behind the development of credit default swaps and she leads the precious metal trading at JPM. Unfortunately, justice will depend on government watchdogs who were recruited (inserted into the system) from the same firms they are expected to regulate and prosecute. More evidence that TBTF bank officials believe the law does not apply to them - why should they given previous demonstration that laws and regulation will not be enforced in this industry.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
from the above link: They have these people wound around their finger knowing that if they just make the metals rise, these people will always buy the high believing this time it is different an the price will truly soar. They need these believers so they can sell the high as always and then the fake analysts say the decline is not real, its just a manipulation to force it down (assuming the rise was real of course), so just keep buying. It works EVERY time!. When I say they are at it again, I get the hate mail because these people cannot wait to hand the bankers their money every time.
also
Gold trades technically not fundamentally. Why there are so many gold promoters selling fundamental gibberish is amazing. To me this is suspicious. They are so desperate to get people to buy and have no regard for their financial survival. Here is SPOT gold back to 1975 on a quarterly basis. All the same fundamental nonsense from fiat to no gold in Fort Knox has been there since 1971. As you can see, gold declined for 19 years intraday and non of that made a damn bit of difference. The lowest CLOSING came 21 years later in 2001.
Look at this chart carefully. I simply drew and uptrend channel connecting the 1976 low to the 2001 low and then drew parallels from the intermediate 1983 high and the 1980 high. I have placed arrows at the technical retests that took place. The third arrow highlights the 1100 area for a retest in the future. Look at the Oscillator. This illustrates there are times of strength and times of weakness. NOTHING goes up forever. Understand and you will survive – be brainwashed, well a fool and his money are soon parted.
These gold promoters are dangerous. They do not try to help people – they are no different than the investment bankers in New York – it is all about them making money. I have been fortunate enough not to need money so I could care less. No one has ever been able to buy me and that is what pisses them off more than anything. Sorry – I didn’t inherit anything . Have always been blessed with a talent to trade. Clients have sensed that as do governments. So I have no ax to grind. It just is what it is.
cohodk you are of course correct it it will take a lot more than gold to make China the world leader, but the way we are spending our selves into the ground I think they will be there in 10 to 15 years. By the way where is the U.S. getting all its gold to make its coins? Are they buying it, or just using up what we have?
57 loaded just returned from a trip to Europe. Perhaps he would like to give us an economic report?
It's a fact that the US trade deficit is being financed with newly-created petrodollars, and that many countries have now decided to back away from financing this trade system.
The other fact is that the US national debt is being rolled over from high yield short term Treasuries into low yield 30-year notes and that there will be nowhere else to run once this is fait accompli. All this, while spending and the Debt Total continue to increase, unabated. The debt load will have to be dealt with, no way around it.
The baby boomers retirement curve will accentuate these two trends, and voila' - things will be reorganized. Into what, who knows?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>cohodk you are of course correct it it will take a lot more than gold to make China the world leader, but the way we are spending our selves into the ground I think they will be there in 10 to 15 years. By the way where is the U.S. getting all its gold to make its coins? Are they buying it, or just using up what we have?
57 loaded just returned from a trip to Europe. Perhaps he would like to give us an economic report? >>
Thanks GS.
It was just a pleasure trip to Italy and London.
I think UK will do better in next several years but positive forecasts are always based on things that increase GDP and taxes. One push is to get better in the hi-tech world. The best of the world still come mostly to Silicon Valley and UK would like to adjust their regs and economic stumbling blocks they have to keep the talent there and or attract it from other countries. The UK is very much risk adverse when it comes to start-ups and such compared to USA and they are trying to change that.
Italy? a joke. Visiting and vacationing are still a #1 destination for many from other countnries in Europe and of course all over the world. So tourism is big and no end to that that I can see. No jobs for college grads. Unemployment is 40% for them. The students learn a foreign language and a skill and move out of the country. The awareness of political and economic corruption has come too little way too late. The Euro coin from Italy has the Vitruvian Man. There was genius there. No economic crisis in Vatican City.
Milan is the fashion center but believe me no signorina's exhibited "muffin tops" in their body pants.
Comments
Get out of the system.
I knew it would happen.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>
<< <i>If the game doesn't change, then change the way you play the game >>
Well said. And yes, it can be done. Paper makes it possible and profitable regardless of price direction. >>
Profitable.....at least until they put down strict controls on paper flows. Cyprus has made it quite clear that this is the next step. If you have paper assets within the system
they are at high risk. Paper profits are only good if you can get them out of the system when you want.
If you have paper assets within the system they are at high risk. Paper profits are only good if you can get them out of the system when you want.
If you have paper assets within the system they are at high risk. Paper profits are only good if you can get them out of the system when you want.
If you have paper assets within the system they are at high risk. Paper profits are only good if you can get them out of the system when you want.
If you have paper assets within the system they are at high risk. Paper profits are only good if you can get them out of the system when you want.
I knew it would happen.
Paper and physical metal each have a purpose. This is why I own both. One of the advantages of paper metal is that I can dump it much quicker than I can physical. Another is that I can profit from PM price moves without the hassles of premiums, delivery, storage, or shipping. The big weakness with paper is assuming you will be able to exchange it for physical; never buy it for this purpose.
Personally, I don't care if the issuers of my paper metal actually have the metal. I'm not investing in that; I'm betting on price swings.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
even after derivative holders are paid. Who would have thought just a few short years ago that "bail ins" would become major banking/government policy?
Quote from JW above, WOW.
<< <i>No need to thank me, guys!
The truth and analysis of all three mentioned above should be taken seriously.
Peace be with you and Happy Easter, celebrating one man that changed the world.
PM's plan for yuan-dollar conversion 'makes sense'
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Why is it that when their price targets for the metals are reached they always increase the targets?
Lets face facts the general public knows hardly anything about the metals markets, and have a great many other things to worry about in their lives. Gold and silver are a fine hedges against ones other paper assets including cash, but getting your bunker ready and put everything you have into the metals is going to lead some folks to big disappointments.
The world runs on paper money and there is no way to change that. We here in the U.S. and our European friends are never going to a gold standard, the world and is its populations could not operate on the paltry amounts of these metals available.
How big a deal is it for the Fed, who is currently creating $40 billion plus per month, to manipulate the metals markets if they chose to do that? So no, the price of gold is not headed to $5,000.
My personal feeling is that gold will eventually be adjusted upward in the market to its inflation adjusted price of somewhere around $2,450.
<< <i>Sinclair, Schiff, and many others of the gold bugs, continually tell the story of how powerful the bankers, and money managers are, but always seemed shocked when the prices are manipulated and collapse. >>
many believe they are correct about the banksters. Somebody has the power and those that control the money seem to be the most logical choice to control those that want money. I don't get the impression that either Sinclair or Schiff are ever shocked about metal price collapse, they just use each occasion to strengthen their case.
<< <i>Why is it that when their price targets for the metals are reached they always increase the targets? >>
because they see the causes of higher prices still remain and in many cases have gotten worse.
<< <i>Lets face facts the general public knows hardly anything about the metals markets, and have a great many other things to worry about in their lives. Gold and silver are a fine hedges against ones other paper assets including cash, but getting your bunker ready and put everything you have into the metals is going to lead some folks to big disappointments. >>
most stackers are in it for the dollar protection (and hopefully some real gains) and not for the end of the world as we know it.
<< <i>The world runs on paper money and there is no way to change that. We here in the U.S. and our European friends are never going to a gold standard, the world and is its populations could not operate on the paltry amounts of these metals available. >>
History has shown on numerous occasions that paper (fiat) money has a life span before its creators destroy it. Very recent history shows not only have efforts not been made to prevent its destruction, but that the destruction mode has intensified. While stackers appreciate the restraint that a gold standard puts on money creation, they understand that it's not going to happen and because of this they need the protection of PMs. I'm a stacker and I don't support a gold standard. The standard, not the metal, is a barbarious relic in a modern economic enviornment.
<< <i>How big a deal is it for the Fed, who is currently creating $40 billion plus per month, to manipulate the metals markets if they chose to do that? So no, the price of gold is not headed to $5,000. >>
FED is actually creating about twice that each month and there is no end in sight. Understanding that they do in fact control metal prices (along with prices in many other markets) allows the stacker, at a great discount, to prepare for the day the FED loses that control. Note the FED will also eventually lose control of other markets (stocks, interest rates, treasury bonds) as well. Loss of control in any of those markets will also make metals a good place to be sitting.
<< <i>My personal feeling is that gold will eventually be adjusted upward in the market to its inflation adjusted price of somewhere around $2,450. >>
Gold price historically adjusts to what is necessary to maintain purchasing power of the currency used to purchase it. I like to think of it as dollar insurance.
If one looks at what's happening around the world to the money that people hold it makes sense to reduce money exposure as much as possible. Banks are now stealing part of it (Cyprus, who's next?) and retirement savings are being destroyed because of (1) artifically low interest rates set by the FED and (2)devaluing of the money via increasing its supply. My choice in reducing dollar exposure is with PMs. There are other ways to do it you just have to choose what you think is best. All that said, the dollar does have its moments such as now as fear (or the FED?) is currently driving investors to cash, but those moments never seem to offer any lasting protection. For centuries gold has provided lasting protection.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>Gold price historically adjusts to what is necessary to maintain purchasing power of the currency used to purchase it. I like to think of it as dollar insurance. >>
That's all it is. The fed will lose control eventually, and sooner rather than later. It ALWAYS happens. There is no plausible scenario to regain control of the current worldwide economic situation.
Wow, that is a tall order indeed. "control of the current worldwide economic situation".. just wow, was there ever? is it even possible?
it's no wonder, if that is the scope of the goal, then continual disappointment is in store.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>There is no plausible scenario to regain control of the current worldwide economic situation. >>
I kind of misspoke. I intended to say, there is no plausible scenario where the dominant world economies (save perhaps China) turn things around to achieve a sustainable, stable fiscal environment. No country in the world has ever accomplished this feat. It can only get worse, not better.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I believe China is actually in worse shape than US. What do they have that is better? >>
Accountability for financial thievery
More American jobs than America
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>I believe China is actually in worse shape than US. What do they have that is better? >>
I didn't know if China had a massive national debt which is why I put the caveat in my statement. I just checked that their debt/GDP ratio is about 40%, which isn't that great but I imagine that China - even with its other problems - does have the fiscal and political ability to recover to a susntainable economic situation. Although like all other countries they are probably too far gone as well, esp with all of their other complicating factors.
400 million people who have never seen a dr.
No friendly neighboring countries
Unbreathable air in most major cities
100 million vacant housing units
A GDP % growth rate equal to their counterfeit production
Thousands of swine learning to swim in the rivers they use for fresh water
IMO, a train wreck of unimaginable proportion.
That's alrealdy one half of typical QE program. How comes this one isn't labeled QE4? This is about $150 BILL/month....not just $85 BILL/month.
In 4-1/2 years the money base has increased from $850 BILL to $3.05 TRILL. This is the bankster's casino, margin, or seed money for their crazy bets.
No inflation here. Keep walking..........
<< <i>I believe China is actually in worse shape than US. >>
agree
At present China ether exports or dies. In another way it can also be said that the Chinese way of infrastructure of exporting (environmental and labor abuse) may slowly be killing China.
<< <i>
<< <i>I believe China is actually in worse shape than US. >>
agree
At present China ether exports or dies. In another way it can also be said that the Chinese way of infrastructure of exporting (environmental and labor abuse) may slowly be killing China. >>
Interesting that it can be contemplated whether one country (the whole country!) is in "better or worse shape" than another.
Is California in better or worse "shape" than Texas, Michigan, or New York? How about Illinois, better or worse "shape" than North Carolina, Hawaii, or Oregon?
Depends on what all you're measuring, and who you're asking I guess. I'd spend time debating the subject with friends, acquaintences, and strangers, but there are all those damned entertaining cat videos to watch and angry birds that need launching, who's got the time.
ahh, spring!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
China owns $1.22 trillion of our debt.
Unemployment is 6.5%.
Total government debt is around 20% of GDP, US is 90%.
I would say that China is doing pretty well.
The yuan would rise in value making exports more expensive to buy.
China won't free float it's yaun because the value would rise possibly too fast.
Manipulation? yeah however their banking system is still much more restrictive in what they can and cannot do even if they are a communist country.
There is still a canyon of space between economic social classes in China.
and to GS...yeah it IS their plan >>>give it another decade to see if they are successful. It can't happen overnight or even in a few years.
I don't want to underestimate their world power but I feel it is still overestimated by many...(of course MHO)
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
It takes A LOT MORE than a bunch of gold to become a reserve currency. Even if China had all the worlds gold, they wouldnt be close to reserve currency status. As much as you might not trust the US govt, would you trust the Chinese?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>China’s desire is to become the worlds reserve currency
It takes A LOT MORE than a bunch of gold to become a reserve currency. Even if China had all the worlds gold, they wouldnt be close to reserve currency status. As much as you might not trust the US govt, would you trust the Chinese? >>
It's about trusting the currency to hold its value.
Reserve currency status does not require gold backing, it is a brokered deal with exporters. It begins with establishing new trade payment agreements and can be enhanced by having something to back it with besides faith - things that are well underway in China. The dollar was brokered initially between the US and Saudi Arabia (and OPEC) and as the world reserve currency it was initially backed by gold. History will show that removing its gold backing was its downfall. Gold backing ensured its stability. Stability will be a key ingredient of the next reserve currency and the reason it replaced the last one.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>China has an economy that is growing at 7.7% according to the latest report.
China owns $1.22 trillion of our debt.
Unemployment is 6.5%.
Total government debt is around 20% of GDP, US is 90%.
I would say that China is doing pretty well. >>
I don't know how reliable this source is, but your debt numbers are quite a ways off: China Debt Clock 39.75% of GDP there...
<< <i>China’s desire is to become the worlds reserve currency
It takes A LOT MORE than a bunch of gold to become a reserve currency. Even if China had all the worlds gold, they wouldnt be close to reserve currency status. As much as you might not trust the US govt, would you trust the Chinese? >>
For now, with their estimated 2,000-3,000 tonnes of gold, they are happy to be a reserve currency for several individual countries....and adding to it all the time.
If it ever is determined that the US doesn't have the bulk of the 8,133 tonnes of gold it claims to have, that would be a dagger to reserve currency status. I don't
trust either govt fwiw. Both are still paper currencies.
Bring in Tim Geither to press the currency "reset" button?
"An inflationary leveraging perpetuates imbalances while deflationary deleveraging threatens the survival of the banking system at large. Hopes for organic credit growth, which would promote the former, are now fleeting. This, in turn, engenders the threat of the latter. Continued ZIRP, increasing asset purchases and a steep decline in the universal efficacy of it all suggests the time to press the reset button is quickly approaching. May to December 2013 may turn out to be the darkness before the dawn; a time we look back upon and choose to forget."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Short article follows:
Is it heresy to even talk about bit coins? Seems kind of crazy. The ultimate currency that can't be manipulated by paperboys or banksters? Other than being totally imaginary, they do have value. What is a bit coin
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.12; revenues rose 24.5% year/year to $338.1 mln vs the $338.4 mln consensus. Other highlights:
Gold sales of 189,346 ounces at an average gold price of $1,622 per ounce (Q1 2012 sales of 150,661 ounces at an average gold price of $1,707).
Gold production of 163,768 ounces at an average cash operating cost of $505 per ounce (Q1 2012 gold production - 155,535 ounces at $452 per ounce).
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz2SCfr6o9d
Under Creative Commons License: Attribution
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Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"In the energy market investigation, the enforcement staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, intends to recommend that the agency pursue an action against JPMorgan over its trading in California and Michigan electric markets. The 70-page document also took aim at a top bank executive, Blythe Masters."
"The regulatory document cites her supposed “knowledge and approval of schemes” carried out by a group of energy traders in Houston. The agency’s investigators claimed that Ms. Masters had “falsely” denied under oath her awareness of the problems and said that JPMorgan had made “scores of false and misleading statements and material omissions” to authorities, the document shows."
Masters is the Wall Street hotshot behind the development of credit default swaps and she leads the precious metal trading at JPM. Unfortunately, justice will depend on government watchdogs who were recruited (inserted into the system) from the same firms they are expected to regulate and prosecute. More evidence that TBTF bank officials believe the law does not apply to them - why should they given previous demonstration that laws and regulation will not be enforced in this industry.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
US Dollar - Bitcoin x 16 trillion.
I knew it would happen.
from the above link: They have these people wound around their finger knowing that if they just make the metals rise, these people will always buy the high believing this time it is different an the price will truly soar. They need these believers so they can sell the high as always and then the fake analysts say the decline is not real, its just a manipulation to force it down (assuming the rise was real of course), so just keep buying. It works EVERY time!. When I say they are at it again, I get the hate mail because these people cannot wait to hand the bankers their money every time.
also
Gold trades technically not fundamentally. Why there are so many gold promoters selling fundamental gibberish is amazing. To me this is suspicious. They are so desperate to get people to buy and have no regard for their financial survival. Here is SPOT gold back to 1975 on a quarterly basis. All the same fundamental nonsense from fiat to no gold in Fort Knox has been there since 1971. As you can see, gold declined for 19 years intraday and non of that made a damn bit of difference. The lowest CLOSING came 21 years later in 2001.
Look at this chart carefully. I simply drew and uptrend channel connecting the 1976 low to the 2001 low and then drew parallels from the intermediate 1983 high and the 1980 high. I have placed arrows at the technical retests that took place. The third arrow highlights the 1100 area for a retest in the future. Look at the Oscillator. This illustrates there are times of strength and times of weakness. NOTHING goes up forever. Understand and you will survive – be brainwashed, well a fool and his money are soon parted.
These gold promoters are dangerous. They do not try to help people – they are no different than the investment bankers in New York – it is all about them making money. I have been fortunate enough not to need money so I could care less. No one has ever been able to buy me and that is what pisses them off more than anything. Sorry – I didn’t inherit anything . Have always been blessed with a talent to trade. Clients have sensed that as do governments. So I have no ax to grind. It just is what it is.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Gold trades technically not fundamentally. >>
While gold may trade on technicals in the paper world it is "accumulated" in its physical form, for fundamental reasons.
These guys are obviously not trading gold and are most likely not concerned with "technicals" I imagine they are stacking for the very reason most of us here are stacking.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
57 loaded just returned from a trip to Europe. Perhaps he would like to give us an economic report?
The other fact is that the US national debt is being rolled over from high yield short term Treasuries into low yield 30-year notes and that there will be nowhere else to run once this is fait accompli. All this, while spending and the Debt Total continue to increase, unabated. The debt load will have to be dealt with, no way around it.
The baby boomers retirement curve will accentuate these two trends, and voila' - things will be reorganized. Into what, who knows?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>cohodk you are of course correct it it will take a lot more than gold to make China the world leader, but the way we are spending our selves into the ground I think they will be there in 10 to 15 years. By the way where is the U.S. getting all its gold to make its coins? Are they buying it, or just using up what we have?
57 loaded just returned from a trip to Europe. Perhaps he would like to give us an economic report? >>
Thanks GS.
It was just a pleasure trip to Italy and London.
I think UK will do better in next several years but positive forecasts are always based on things that increase GDP and taxes. One push is to get better in the hi-tech world. The best of the world still come mostly to Silicon Valley and UK would like to adjust their regs and economic stumbling blocks they have to keep the talent there and or attract it from other countries. The UK is very much risk adverse when it comes to start-ups and such compared to USA and they are trying to change that.
Italy? a joke. Visiting and vacationing are still a #1 destination for many from other countnries in Europe and of course all over the world. So tourism is big and no end to that that I can see. No jobs for college grads. Unemployment is 40% for them. The students learn a foreign language and a skill and move out of the country. The awareness of political and economic corruption has come too little way too late. The Euro coin from Italy has the Vitruvian Man. There was genius there. No economic crisis in Vatican City.
Milan is the fashion center but believe me no signorina's exhibited "muffin tops" in their body pants.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>Interesting thesis, open for discussion:
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is >>
Bernanke has 2 kids ages 30 and 27. Could it be possible that one of them is getting married that weekend?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting thesis, open for discussion:
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is >>
Bernanke has 2 kids ages 30 and 27. Could it be possible that one of them is getting married that weekend? >>
I was looking for discussion on the author's thesis, not Bernanke's calendar.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong