<< <i>These California bankruptcies triggered a rarity. Wall Street investors and everyday Californians are paying attention to the same issue, even if for different reasons. They ask: "Is my bond next?" or "Is my city next?" The answers are "no" and "maybe." As Michael Aneiro of Barron's pointed out Tuesday, high-profile city bankruptcy cases don't mean that we are suddenly going to see a rash of municipal-bond defaults. >>
The appeal of declaring bankruptcy for a city looks more and more appealing once other cities start doing it. There are a lot of cities in REALLY bad shape and with unsustainable pension obligations. Bankruptcy for most of these cities appears to be inevitable, it's just a matter of when.
One result of the LIBOR rigging scandal was manipulatioin of interest rates in order to prop up the prices of bonds and other debt instruments. Unless bond prices can continue to rise as new debt is issued, the era of rigged bond prices might be drawing to an end. It would seem to be only a matter of time before the bond bubble bursts.
<< <i>One result of the LIBOR rigging scandal was manipulatioin of interest rates in order to prop up the prices of bonds and other debt instruments. Unless bond prices can continue to rise as new debt is issued, the era of rigged bond prices might be drawing to an end. It would seem to be only a matter of time before the bond bubble bursts. >>
If the LIBOR rate was rigged, how many other markets were rigged? Many already believe gold and silver markets are manipulated. I find it hard to believe that they stopped at just controlling the LIBOR. The sad part? I doubt anyone will go to jail over this. A couple of banks will pay a few million in penalties, probably a fraction of what they made gaming the rate.
Just what Hoisinton Management and Lacy Hunt has been saying for years now, when everyone else was screaming TOP TOP TOP, they said hold on to your longterm bonds, especially the zero coupons.
It appears they must have been semi-aware of the Libor machinations. You'd have to think that knowledge of that would have trickled down to those managing big money. The real question is what major financial and economic devices aren't manipulated? In a related story: interesting how JPM effectively raided their loss reserves to exactly hit their earnings mark despite the billions in CIO losses. In the process they also restated their 1st Qtr results, adding hundreds more millions in losses there due to misstatements by their traders. I guess these guys never heard about SOx and internal controls since their traders can state whatever they want. Their "internal" controls report directly to the CIO. You can't make this stuff up.
The only advance notice the big money managers needed was to look at Japan.
Although I would really like to see much higher rates, it is entirely possible that rates are TOO HIGH now. No reason why there couldnt be a -1% 5yr rate.
Cohodk or anyone else, maybe you can explain how this works. The negative interest rates confuse me.
Why would anyone buy bonds at 0% or lower interest rate? It seems to me that tying up the capital with a guaranteed loss would be never make sense over the option of just sitting on the cash without restrictions and under their full control. Why are people/institutions still investing in bonds at negative rates?
The first negative interest rates on bonds that I am aware of occured in Japan circa 2003; Swiss and German short term bonds have recently traded with negative rates, though I am not aware of a negative coupon.
The following example illustrates what happened in Japan:
Government issues a six month bond at par = 100 and a tiny positive couple, eg, 0.05 % (5 basis points)
The bond trades in the market at 100.50. So, the purchaser received 100.05 at the end of 6 months after paying 100.50, so the nominal yield is negative.
It sounds odd, but if a financial institution has a large amount cash they cannot quickly deploy (in the case of a large insurance company, they could easily have a $ 500 million sitting around looking for a longer term investment), they cannot realistically convert this into cash, so they are willing to pay a fee to essentially hold the money in a very safe security.
<< <i>It sounds odd, but if a financial institution has a large amount cash they cannot quickly deploy (in the case of a large insurance company, they could easily have a $ 500 million sitting around looking for a longer term investment), they cannot realistically convert this into cash, so they are willing to pay a fee to essentially hold the money in a very safe security. >>
Yes, but why can't they leave it in their bank account? Why does it have to be tied up in a bond?
Since we were discussing yields I decided to look at the charts. Both the 10yr and 30yr yield may have made a double bottom with a negative divergence in momos. IE, momos did not weaken as much as yields which means we could see yields rally a bit from here.
Just listened to the Bernake thing today. The congress telling him to get to work to get unemployment down and business moving was quite the bit of irony.
So the new $100 bill won't be released in 2012 and a "warning" date of six(?) months will be given before these are released.
1) why a "warning" date so far in advance? (good or bad)
2) in quick thought - - releasing these bills would put the counterfeit $100 bills in jeopardy..in theory reducing the functional (my term)money supply in the world...therefore increasing it's value which cold translate into a stronger dollar? (good or bad)
any other thoughts either conspiratory or of the cohodk "calmness" or roadrunners "oracle" and all others more than welcome.
I don't understand those arguments. The old $100 bills are still valid. If I was a counterfeiter I would just make the old style of bill... "
Big brother does this every once in awhile to scare everyone into digging out their hide away cash, and paying taxes. So far they have always honored all the old bills, BUT there will come a time after the great inflation that they will issues perhaps one new blueback for ten old greenbacks!
Regarding "I don't understand those arguments. The old $100 bills are still valid. If I was a counterfeiter I would just make the old style of bill... "
I suspect that people who engage in large, illicit transactions want to be compensated with the latest series notes. The older the note, the less market there is for your handiwork.
<< <i>Regarding "I don't understand those arguments. The old $100 bills are still valid. If I was a counterfeiter I would just make the old style of bill... "
I suspect that people who engage in large, illicit transactions want to be compensated with the latest series notes. The older the note, the less market there is for your handiwork. >>
I guess I'd agree, but I imagine counterfeiters deploy their fake notes a couple at a time, not in large transactions.
The only thing I'm aware of is overseas where they will often insist that bills be new and crisp, but in the US I've never heard of a problem redeeming an old wrinkly note.
A very large % of counterfeit $100 bills are in foreign countries. My thinking is that even the "high quality fake fiat" is never scrutinized like it would be here. When they count deposits in those bill counters (at least BofA) they are able to check for counterfeit bills as fast as the bills are counted. Foreign activities that are not above board or tolerated by governments are not naive to the "fake fiat" nonetheless the new bills IMO may/will create a whole new demand demographic.
Imagine the US Treasury selling new $100 notes for more than face value to..........? Yeah that's really stretching it, maybe the thought is only good for a book.
"Imagine the US Treasury selling new $100 notes for more than face value to..."
Maybe not that hard to imagine when you think about it. It, would be an easy sell. Just send out some fear about bogus bills bouncing around and you maybe pay an extra 2% at the bank and points of transaction to assure you that the bill you received is real fiat. It costs more money to use those counterfeit detecting bill counters so there's overhead involved and besides, you want to know that your money is safe, right? How embarassing would it be to pay for something and be called out for passing counterfeit currency when for a measly 2% you could be safe. I'm suprised someone hasn't already snapped up the rights to this 2%.
I agree, and now more than ever we need to keep in touch. It looks like the fools in Washington will give us all higher taxes, and take away middle class deductions next year all in the name of providing more money for their socialist agenda. I for one will be adding to my CEF position and buying some additional real-estate. It is scaring the hell out off me to have to much money in the form of paper assets going forward.
So after reading many blogs this year I finally read one that made since as to why sovereign funds continued adding to their positions in the dollar and T-Bills. Our government in a must do effort to protect our socialist system must print more dollars and debt. It is the hope of those at the top that they can inflate their way out of some of this debt, and devalue the dollar to the point that our cheap dollars will make foreign goods more expense here, and our goods cheaper there. The foreigners caught on to this quick, they either peg their money to our dollar or keep large amounts of dollars, and dollar debt, on their books as compensating balances to keep their money cheap so that this will not happen. So China, Japan, et.al. will continue to buy dollars until hell freezes over as long as they can sell in the U.S. market. So much for the thinking that the foreigners would stop buying the dollar and we would have a collapse.
So what’s on tap in the planning department for the rest of you??
American Numismatic Association Governor 2023 to 2025 - My posts reflect my own thoughts and are not those of the ANA.My Numismatics with Kenny Twitter Page
"So what’s on tap in the planning department for the rest of you??"
Hummmmmmmm...GS. Been thinkin' about that topic myself. The urban center life is becoming less and less appealing. Also, I fear all bought or sold assets will be subject to confiscation by taxation in the admin's desire to capture as many assets as possible for redistribution. Instruments like IRA's, 401's, stock accounts, retirement accounts, anywhere that there is cash, there will be people trying to get at it; fed, state, and local. Those in metal will simply be collateral damage in this effort.
There appears to be no intent by our national leadership to perform any substantial changes in their financial behavior. It seems that whenever someone up there tries to do anything to change the status quo, there is some subgroup that starts moaning and groaning about how they are getting screwed and of course the media rushes to the rescue and it's quickly becomes a national topic and as a result, nothing changes. The only alternative available to the leadership is to tax those that have more and continue to provide as much financial entitlement to as many of the non-asset people as possible. It's the ol' saw...If you rob Peter to pay Paul, you're sure to keep getting Paul's vote. I don't see that much will change in the next few years. It's like the last thing that the referee tells the boxers before they start their match "Protect yourself."
So it looks like the rural life is the next big move. The transition will take two years but methinks that now that the 1960's house I own is finally restored I can begin acquiring a property that I have been lusting greatly after for a few years; 5.5 acres in a restricted subdivision near the end of a gravel road on the outskirts of a very desirable small town. I'll lease the restored house in town (just in case the rural experience doesn't work out) and build a residence out on the 5.5 acres and watch the urban scene from an hour away. The plan is to get out of the numismatic gold and convert those assets into a piece of dirt. Of course I'd still have a metal stash but the percentage of assets in metal will drop significantly as that wealth is transferred into rural land ownership. Likely, I will end up mostly in 90% and ASE's but the big ticket stuff has to go. That gives me two years from now to build a house, get everybody retired, and be gone like a whisp.
The situation in Japan is interesting and highly relevant to us.
For the past 20 years, Japan has experienced asset deflation (ie, declining real estate values and equity prices) but remarkable consumer price stability -- Japan's CPI measure, set at 100 in 1992, has meandered between 99.5 and 104 over the past 20 years; so, from a price perspective, Japan has not really experienced deflation, just complete absence of inflation.
The Bank of Japan, which operates independently of the politicians, is under increasing pressure to create some inflation (a target of 3 % has been mentioned). Given Japan's demographic, cultural, and broader regulatory situation, it will take dramatic monetary actions to create inflation -- the Japanese consumer really doesn't want to spend, and business people have adequate cash to fund desired investment.
In any case, if the BOJ in effect loses its independence and moves to create inflation, this will provide an amazing test of academic theory, in particular (a) can bankers really achieve a target such as 3 % without creating instability (wild fluctuations), and (b) if they did achieve a 3 % target, would this lead to real economic growth.
If Japan becomes inflationary (a fairly big if, but a real possibility), it could spill over into the rest of the world.
Excellent posts! one of the best moves I made in the last 15 years was to get out of a large city and into the country. I current live live in the middle of two small towns, one 12 miles away and one 14 miles away. each has a population of about 6,000 folks.
It should be obvious from the last election that those that feel entitled to others peoples money now are the voting majority in this country, therefore nothing will change going forward as far as restraint in this area is concerned.
I think what we can plan for is a continuation of higher taxes, confiscations, and perhaps inflation if the FED can get there. I would not want to live any where near a large urban area the next decade. I also do not see that we will ever return to the housing boom we had before 2007. fewer and fewer high school and college graduates will find good jobs in the coming years, and boomers will want to down size and cut costs, continually seeking to sell their over sized properties. In many cases they will also be wanting to unload second homes to cut expenses.
I believe going forward all paper asset markets will continue to be a gamble, the the combination of a continued lousy real-estate market and the uncertainty of the paper asset markets will make affordable rental property the hot item for the next decade. Most of these investment rentals however must be in very safe non volatile locations. Small towns and cites, suburban areas that are well out of city cores, and anything with acreage.
I have seen a few of these “Prepper” shows of late and what surprised me is that this show estimates that 35% of the U.S. population now have ,”Bug Out Bags”.
<< <i>It should be obvious from the last election that those that feel entitled to others peoples money now are the voting majority in this country, therefore nothing will change going forward as far as restraint in this area is concerned. >>
I'm not entirely convinced this is true. Romney was actually a pretty lousy candidate, but maybe a touch better than McCain. I was excited for Romney but in retrospect the excitement was only to get rid of Mr. O. Had Romney won I know most of us would be incredibly disappointed over the next 4 years, and it would set up a Democrat victory in 2016. They did a good job of trying to sell us on Romney being conservative, but at best he is a "light" liberal.
I think the right conservative candidate can still get elected, but he needs to be a true conservative. It's clear that the GOP needs a complete overhaul. The GOP also needs to learn how to run a campaign like the Dems do.
<< <i>It should be obvious from the last election that those that feel entitled to others peoples money now are the voting majority in this country, therefore nothing will change going forward as far as restraint in this area is concerned. >>
I'm not entirely convinced this is true. Romney was actually a pretty lousy candidate, but maybe a touch better than McCain. I was excited for Romney but in retrospect the excitement was only to get rid of Mr. O. Had Romney won I know most of us would be incredibly disappointed over the next 4 years, and it would set up a Democrat victory in 2016. They did a good job of trying to sell us on Romney being conservative, but at best he is a "light" liberal.
I think the right conservative candidate can still get elected, but he needs to be a true conservative. It's clear that the GOP needs a complete overhaul. The GOP also needs to learn how to run a campaign like the Dems do. >>
When "Pro-Choice" becomes a non-polarizing topic, then there is opportunity.
Republican party needs to reinvent itself with a different perception. Find a hot button across a broader range of voters....and spin it for the Republican candidate and campaign that this hot-button was considered insignificant or irrelevant by Democrats.
Unfortunately style and savvy counts for more than substance right now.
Agree with your assessment of Cain vs Romney and probable outcome if Mitt was elected.
<< <i>Republican party needs to reinvent itself with a different perception. Find a hot button across a broader range of voters....and spin it for the Republican candidate and campaign that this hot-button was considered insignificant or irrelevant by Democrats. >>
I told my friends before the election that if Romney wanted to lock up the election, all he'd have to do is promise to "reign in" the TSA. I feel that topic would have resonated with so many of us on a very personal level that it would have given him the few extra votes he needed.
<< <i>Republican party needs to reinvent itself with a different perception. Find a hot button across a broader range of voters....and spin it for the Republican candidate and campaign that this hot-button was considered insignificant or irrelevant by Democrats. >>
I told my friends before the election that if Romney wanted to lock up the election, all he'd have to do is promise to "reign in" the TSA. I feel that topic would have resonated with so many of us on a very personal level that it would have given him the few extra votes he needed. >>
Great thought! You should be a strategist for 2016
Medicare dropping to age 55. Smoke and mirror plans to implement and make it successful, get elected..... O might have done that...if he needed the votes.
So lets see the Fed is going to buy the Trillions in debt that others will not buy and then what RR.
I mean it is not like the U.S. debt situation will get any better, right?
And how about all these new taxes that hit in 3 weeks?
The republicans are now saying they have no power cause they lost the election, but what happens if the congress just says no more debt ceiling increases??????
As far as burger machines go, is this not what everyone wanted? MORE TECHNOLOGY?
Lots of question I know, but I am sure I will get help with answers from my buddies here!
Comments
<< <i>These California bankruptcies triggered a rarity. Wall Street investors and everyday Californians are paying attention to the same issue, even if for different reasons. They ask: "Is my bond next?" or "Is my city next?"
The answers are "no" and "maybe." As Michael Aneiro of Barron's pointed out Tuesday, high-profile city bankruptcy cases don't mean that we are suddenly going to see a rash of municipal-bond defaults. >>
The appeal of declaring bankruptcy for a city looks more and more appealing once other cities start doing it. There are a lot of cities in REALLY bad shape and with unsustainable pension obligations. Bankruptcy for most of these cities appears to be inevitable, it's just a matter of when.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Real Libor Scandal
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>One result of the LIBOR rigging scandal was manipulatioin of interest rates in order to prop up the prices of bonds and other debt instruments. Unless bond prices can continue to rise as new debt is issued, the era of rigged bond prices might be drawing to an end. It would seem to be only a matter of time before the bond bubble bursts. >>
If the LIBOR rate was rigged, how many other markets were rigged? Many already believe gold and silver markets are manipulated. I find it hard to believe that they stopped at just controlling the LIBOR.
The sad part? I doubt anyone will go to jail over this. A couple of banks will pay a few million in penalties, probably a fraction of what they made gaming the rate.
especially the zero coupons.
It appears they must have been semi-aware of the Libor machinations. You'd have to think that knowledge of that would have trickled down to those managing big money.
The real question is what major financial and economic devices aren't manipulated? In a related story: interesting how JPM effectively raided their loss reserves to exactly
hit their earnings mark despite the billions in CIO losses. In the process they also restated their 1st Qtr results, adding hundreds more millions in losses there due to misstatements
by their traders. I guess these guys never heard about SOx and internal controls since their traders can state whatever they want. Their "internal" controls report directly to
the CIO. You can't make this stuff up.
Although I would really like to see much higher rates, it is entirely possible that rates are TOO HIGH now. No reason why there couldnt be a -1% 5yr rate.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why would anyone buy bonds at 0% or lower interest rate? It seems to me that tying up the capital with a guaranteed loss would be never make sense over the option of just sitting on the cash without restrictions and under their full control. Why are people/institutions still investing in bonds at negative rates?
The following example illustrates what happened in Japan:
Government issues a six month bond at par = 100 and a tiny positive couple, eg, 0.05 % (5 basis points)
The bond trades in the market at 100.50. So, the purchaser received 100.05 at the end of 6 months after paying 100.50, so the nominal yield is negative.
It sounds odd, but if a financial institution has a large amount cash they cannot quickly deploy (in the case of a large insurance company, they could easily have a $ 500 million sitting around looking for a longer term investment), they cannot realistically convert this into cash, so they are willing to pay a fee to essentially hold the money in a very safe security.
<< <i>It sounds odd, but if a financial institution has a large amount cash they cannot quickly deploy (in the case of a large insurance company, they could easily have a $ 500 million sitting around looking for a longer term investment), they cannot realistically convert this into cash, so they are willing to pay a fee to essentially hold the money in a very safe security. >>
Yes, but why can't they leave it in their bank account? Why does it have to be tied up in a bond?
Excellent question.
Some combination of the following:
(1) The banks aren't eager for the money themselves (as they also would also need to invest it at a loss)
(2) I don't think this is the case in Japan, but it may be true that Swiss banks are "paying" negative interest
(3) The insurer wants to diversify assets; they will definitely hold some "cash" as bank deposits
(4) There is greater credit risk in holding the money in a bank than a government bond
(5) Rating agencies and regulator authorities have higher capital requirements for money deposited in a bank than held in a govt bond.
(6) The Japanese government bond market may actually offer greater liquidty for large sums of money than a bank deposit.
Since we were discussing yields I decided to look at the charts. Both the 10yr and 30yr yield may have made a double bottom with a negative divergence in momos. IE, momos did not weaken as much as yields which means we could see yields rally a bit from here.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Why you are in Debt! >>
That is really great.
He was a genius with many insights in how the world works.
Thanks!
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
16 Trillion, hit the gas!
Box of 20
1) why a "warning" date so far in advance? (good or bad)
2) in quick thought - - releasing these bills would put the counterfeit $100 bills in jeopardy..in theory reducing the functional (my term)money supply in the world...therefore increasing it's value which cold translate into a stronger dollar? (good or bad)
any other thoughts either conspiratory or of the cohodk "calmness" or roadrunners "oracle" and all others more than welcome.
Big brother does this every once in awhile to scare everyone into digging out their hide away cash, and paying taxes. So far they have always honored all the old bills, BUT there will come a time after the great inflation that they will issues perhaps one new blueback for ten old greenbacks!
I suspect that people who engage in large, illicit transactions want to be compensated with the latest series notes. The older the note, the less market there is for your handiwork.
<< <i>Regarding "I don't understand those arguments. The old $100 bills are still valid. If I was a counterfeiter I would just make the old style of bill... "
I suspect that people who engage in large, illicit transactions want to be compensated with the latest series notes. The older the note, the less market there is for your handiwork. >>
I guess I'd agree, but I imagine counterfeiters deploy their fake notes a couple at a time, not in large transactions.
The only thing I'm aware of is overseas where they will often insist that bills be new and crisp, but in the US I've never heard of a problem redeeming an old wrinkly note.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Imagine the US Treasury selling new $100 notes for more than face value to..........? Yeah that's really stretching it, maybe the thought is only good for a book.
Maybe not that hard to imagine when you think about it. It, would be an easy sell. Just send out some fear about bogus bills bouncing around and you maybe pay an extra 2% at the bank and points of transaction to assure you that the bill you received is real fiat. It costs more money to use those counterfeit detecting bill counters so there's overhead involved and besides, you want to know that your money is safe, right? How embarassing would it be to pay for something and be called out for passing counterfeit currency when for a measly 2% you could be safe. I'm suprised someone hasn't already snapped up the rights to this 2%.
<< <i>No need to sell $100 bills for more than $100. Exporting fiat is already the most lucrative business possible. >>
Yes you are right!
I was fantasizing about clandestine selling of sometype ---smoke/mirrors/shadow-- outside of USA.
Arco's machine rejected it and I was told if their machine rejects it, so do they!
no ticki, no washie.
I kinda miss the postings here.
So after reading many blogs this year I finally read one that made since as to why sovereign funds continued adding to their positions in the dollar and T-Bills. Our government in a must do effort to protect our socialist system must print more dollars and debt. It is the hope of those at the top that they can inflate their way out of some of this debt, and devalue the dollar to the point that our cheap dollars will make foreign goods more expense here, and our goods cheaper there. The foreigners caught on to this quick, they either peg their money to our dollar or keep large amounts of dollars, and dollar debt, on their books as compensating balances to keep their money cheap so that this will not happen. So China, Japan, et.al. will continue to buy dollars until hell freezes over as long as they can sell in the U.S. market. So much for the thinking that the foreigners would stop buying the dollar and we would have a collapse.
So what’s on tap in the planning department for the rest of you??
Gold: Solution to the Banking Crisis
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Hummmmmmmm...GS. Been thinkin' about that topic myself. The urban center life is becoming less and less appealing. Also, I fear all bought or sold assets will be subject to confiscation by taxation in the admin's desire to capture as many assets as possible for redistribution. Instruments like IRA's, 401's, stock accounts, retirement accounts, anywhere that there is cash, there will be people trying to get at it; fed, state, and local. Those in metal will simply be collateral damage in this effort.
There appears to be no intent by our national leadership to perform any substantial changes in their financial behavior. It seems that whenever someone up there tries to do anything to change the status quo, there is some subgroup that starts moaning and groaning about how they are getting screwed and of course the media rushes to the rescue and it's quickly becomes a national topic and as a result, nothing changes. The only alternative available to the leadership is to tax those that have more and continue to provide as much financial entitlement to as many of the non-asset people as possible. It's the ol' saw...If you rob Peter to pay Paul, you're sure to keep getting Paul's vote. I don't see that much will change in the next few years. It's like the last thing that the referee tells the boxers before they start their match "Protect yourself."
So it looks like the rural life is the next big move. The transition will take two years but methinks that now that the 1960's house I own is finally restored I can begin acquiring a property that I have been lusting greatly after for a few years; 5.5 acres in a restricted subdivision near the end of a gravel road on the outskirts of a very desirable small town. I'll lease the restored house in town (just in case the rural experience doesn't work out) and build a residence out on the 5.5 acres and watch the urban scene from an hour away. The plan is to get out of the numismatic gold and convert those assets into a piece of dirt. Of course I'd still have a metal stash but the percentage of assets in metal will drop significantly as that wealth is transferred into rural land ownership. Likely, I will end up mostly in 90% and ASE's but the big ticket stuff has to go. That gives me two years from now to build a house, get everybody retired, and be gone like a whisp.
Got SILVER?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Taxation will be a big issue. >>
Look for increased sales prior to Jan. 1 to lock in capital gains at the 2012 rate. Same affect on equities and the S&P/DJIA.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
For the past 20 years, Japan has experienced asset deflation (ie, declining real estate values and equity prices) but remarkable consumer price stability -- Japan's CPI measure, set at 100 in 1992, has meandered between 99.5 and 104 over the past 20 years; so, from a price perspective, Japan has not really experienced deflation, just complete absence of inflation.
The Bank of Japan, which operates independently of the politicians, is under increasing pressure to create some inflation (a target of 3 % has been mentioned). Given Japan's demographic, cultural, and broader regulatory situation, it will take dramatic monetary actions to create inflation -- the Japanese consumer really doesn't want to spend, and business people have adequate cash to fund desired investment.
In any case, if the BOJ in effect loses its independence and moves to create inflation, this will provide an amazing test of academic theory, in particular (a) can bankers really achieve a target such as 3 % without creating instability (wild fluctuations), and (b) if they did achieve a 3 % target, would this lead to real economic growth.
If Japan becomes inflationary (a fairly big if, but a real possibility), it could spill over into the rest of the world.
one of the best moves I made in the last 15 years was to get out of a large city and into the country. I current live live in the middle of two small towns, one 12 miles away and one 14 miles away. each has a population of about 6,000 folks.
It should be obvious from the last election that those that feel entitled to others peoples money now are the voting majority in this country, therefore nothing will change going forward as far as restraint in this area is concerned.
I think what we can plan for is a continuation of higher taxes, confiscations, and perhaps inflation if the FED can get there. I would not want to live any where near a large urban area the next decade. I also do not see that we will ever return to the housing boom we had before 2007. fewer and fewer high school and college graduates will find good jobs in the coming years, and boomers will want to down size and cut costs, continually seeking to sell their over sized properties. In many cases they will also be wanting to unload second homes to cut expenses.
I believe going forward all paper asset markets will continue to be a gamble, the the combination of a continued lousy real-estate market and the uncertainty of the paper asset markets will make affordable rental property the hot item for the next decade. Most of these investment rentals however must be in very safe non volatile locations. Small towns and cites, suburban areas that are well out of city cores, and anything with acreage.
I have seen a few of these “Prepper” shows of late and what surprised me is that this show estimates that 35% of the U.S. population now have ,”Bug Out Bags”.
<< <i>It should be obvious from the last election that those that feel entitled to others peoples money now are the voting majority in this country, therefore nothing will change going forward as far as restraint in this area is concerned. >>
I'm not entirely convinced this is true. Romney was actually a pretty lousy candidate, but maybe a touch better than McCain. I was excited for Romney but in retrospect the excitement was only to get rid of Mr. O. Had Romney won I know most of us would be incredibly disappointed over the next 4 years, and it would set up a Democrat victory in 2016. They did a good job of trying to sell us on Romney being conservative, but at best he is a "light" liberal.
I think the right conservative candidate can still get elected, but he needs to be a true conservative. It's clear that the GOP needs a complete overhaul. The GOP also needs to learn how to run a campaign like the Dems do.
<< <i>
<< <i>It should be obvious from the last election that those that feel entitled to others peoples money now are the voting majority in this country, therefore nothing will change going forward as far as restraint in this area is concerned. >>
I'm not entirely convinced this is true. Romney was actually a pretty lousy candidate, but maybe a touch better than McCain. I was excited for Romney but in retrospect the excitement was only to get rid of Mr. O. Had Romney won I know most of us would be incredibly disappointed over the next 4 years, and it would set up a Democrat victory in 2016. They did a good job of trying to sell us on Romney being conservative, but at best he is a "light" liberal.
I think the right conservative candidate can still get elected, but he needs to be a true conservative. It's clear that the GOP needs a complete overhaul. The GOP also needs to learn how to run a campaign like the Dems do. >>
When "Pro-Choice" becomes a non-polarizing topic, then there is opportunity.
Republican party needs to reinvent itself with a different perception. Find a hot button across a broader range of voters....and spin it for the Republican candidate and campaign that this hot-button was considered insignificant or irrelevant by Democrats.
Unfortunately style and savvy counts for more than substance right now.
Agree with your assessment of Cain vs Romney and probable outcome if Mitt was elected.
<< <i>Republican party needs to reinvent itself with a different perception. Find a hot button across a broader range of voters....and spin it for the Republican candidate and campaign that this hot-button was considered insignificant or irrelevant by Democrats. >>
I told my friends before the election that if Romney wanted to lock up the election, all he'd have to do is promise to "reign in" the TSA. I feel that topic would have resonated with so many of us on a very personal level that it would have given him the few extra votes he needed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Physical gold through the roof, along with gun sales
And...what happens in 2025 that will change things?
<< <i>File under: FWIW
Physical gold through the roof, along with gun sales
And...what happens in 2025 that will change things? >>
2025 is when I estimate the fiscal drag of the baby boomers begins to decline.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Republican party needs to reinvent itself with a different perception. Find a hot button across a broader range of voters....and spin it for the Republican candidate and campaign that this hot-button was considered insignificant or irrelevant by Democrats. >>
I told my friends before the election that if Romney wanted to lock up the election, all he'd have to do is promise to "reign in" the TSA. I feel that topic would have resonated with so many of us on a very personal level that it would have given him the few extra votes he needed. >>
Great thought! You should be a strategist for 2016
Medicare dropping to age 55. Smoke and mirror plans to implement and make it successful, get elected..... O might have done that...if he needed the votes.
Back to the main thread topic!
Got Gold?
I mean it is not like the U.S. debt situation will get any better, right?
And how about all these new taxes that hit in 3 weeks?
The republicans are now saying they have no power cause they lost the election, but what happens if the congress just says no more debt ceiling increases??????
As far as burger machines go, is this not what everyone wanted? MORE TECHNOLOGY?
Lots of question I know, but I am sure I will get help with answers from my buddies here!