<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
I think there's a good chance the Chinese (when they achieve reserve currency status or at some other point just prior) will remove their peg to the USD and establish a peg to gold or a gold standard. They love their gold and are hoarding and acquiring it to an extent few anticipate. This will send the rest of the world into crisis, but it will be the only thing that will finally (maybe) force/co-erce the rest of the world to transition back to sound money banking principals/systems. This move will of course render China the undisputed economic king of the world, which you know they want desperately to be.
<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
You gotta love the fiat and stock bugs who continue to quote the immortal words of Alfred E. Newman: What, me worry? . They're never gonna see it coming.
<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
I think there's a good chance the Chinese (when they achieve reserve currency status or at some other point just prior) will remove their peg to the USD and establish a peg to gold or a gold standard. They love their gold and are hoarding and acquiring it to an extent few anticipate. This will send the rest of the world into crisis, but it will be the only thing that will finally (maybe) force/co-erce the rest of the world to transition back to sound money banking principals/systems. This move will of course render China the undisputed economic king of the world, which you know they want desperately to be. >>
China's gov't and private debts have zoomed from 156% of GDP in 2007 to 251% of GDP in mid 2014 (World Bank report). Can they or would they peg their currency to gold with this much debt? I dunno.
<< <i>There's no inflation: Hotel room rates may be hiked 'aggressively,' forecaster says Hotel owners across the U.S. are expected to be told later Monday they should be able to "aggressively" raise room prices this year, with one consultancy already forecasting the national average room rate to rise 5.4 percent. >>
I remember staying in at "on the highway" hotel chain on a trip to Montana about a dozen years agopaying about $65 a night. I just got a room at the same chain in Salt Lake for $59. And I got breakfast. >>
That is one of the least-fair comparisons you can make, especially if a hotel franchise. Rates vary and change based on date, day of the week, location, and how far in advance you make the reservation, not to mention the possibility of catching a promotion or sale one time but not the next. In addition many chain hotels are franchises owned by individuals who can set rates where they want. You really need to compare average rates as the article did to get any indication. As a regular visitor to Vegas (4-5 times/yr) and savvy shopper for room rates, clearly rates have increased over time.
To make an absurd example, you could say that last year you staying in Glendale, AZ near the stadium (for the Super Bowl this year) and it was only $100/nt but this weekend it's $1500! Not a fair comparison. >>
No reservation. No advance booking unless booking online 15 min before I got there counts. My example is much more accurate than trying to compare to the Superbowl.
BTW---vegas has some of the cheapest rooms in America. Enjoy.
<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
I think there's a good chance the Chinese (when they achieve reserve currency status or at some other point just prior) will remove their peg to the USD and establish a peg to gold or a gold standard. They love their gold and are hoarding and acquiring it to an extent few anticipate. This will send the rest of the world into crisis, but it will be the only thing that will finally (maybe) force/co-erce the rest of the world to transition back to sound money banking principals/systems. This move will of course render China the undisputed economic king of the world, which you know they want desperately to be. >>
It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold.
<< <i>China and sound economic principles used in the same sentence. Awesome!!! >>
No more shocking than US and socialism in the same sentence.
<< <i>And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. >>
Reserve currency status is what has enabled economic dominance. It is our economic A-bomb as currently demonstrated by world-wide currency turmoil. Imagine our military strength without the threat of a nuclear arsenal. Bear witness to Britain's previous loss of reserve currency status and Spain before them. History shows reserve status as providing other important forms of world status. But this time it will be different?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
Reserve currency status is what has enabled economic dominance
No its isnt. It is the will and power and intelligence and strength of this country. Not a bunch of "worthless" paper.
If the US loses its reserve currency status, will its nukes and tanks and bombers and ships disappear? Will Silicon Valley disappear? Will the sun stop shining in Florida and California? Will the oil in Texas and North Dakota and Alaska, its natural gas in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma disappear? Will its coal in Appalachia disappear? Will the Mississippi run dry? Or the Great Lakes drain? Will its trees all die?
Great Britain is an island nation. Spain ruled by Kings. Neither has vast natural resources.
For someone who has such disdain for the dollar, you sure do give it a lot of credit.
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
<< <i>For someone who has such disdain for the dollar, you sure do give it a lot of credit. >>
Not as much as the people who are willing to sacrifice your son or daughter to defend it.
I like dollars. I just hate to see the ones I have run into the ground by people who place total importance on "'now" with no regard for "later."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before.
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
<< <i>Military service in this country is voluntary. >>
It hasn't always been and probably won't always be.
<< <i>Wai.. wha? Is the dollar being run into the ground, or is it growing dangerously strong? Me is confused >>
Compared to the Euro, which makes up 57% of the dollar index, it's strong. The last time the dollar was super "strong " like this (fall of 2008), the banking and financial systems almost collapsed.
the banking and financial systems almost collapsed
Did they "almost"? Just like hurricane Sandy, or this recent snowstorm, "almost" killed the eastern seaboard?
I'd type more about semantics, but my fingers might almost fall off, besides, I'm going to make a sandwich, because I haven't eaten since lunch, and I'm almost starving to death.
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
Of course I know nothing and all statistics all lies. What else ya got?
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
<< <i>the banking and financial systems almost collapsed
Did they "almost"? Just like hurricane Sandy, or this recent snowstorm, "almost" killed the eastern seaboard?
I'd type more about semantics, but my fingers might almost fall off, besides, I'm going to make a sandwich, because I haven't eaten since lunch, and I'm almost starving to death. >>
The were in collapse mode until the FED stepped in with $TRILLIONs in slush money to pay off the loser's derivative's losses around the world. Yes, without FED intervention, the banking system would have collapsed.
No semantics involved here. The big banks if left to themselves, would have failed. You at least have a choice to eat your sandwich....or just starve.....and it's not dependent on FED intervention.
cohodk, you should read your own reuters link, not just the headline:
"The fall unwound the prior weeks' increases, which had pushed claims above the key 300,000 threshold"
"The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes tumbled to an eight-month low in December."
"Separately, the Commerce Department said the homeownership rate dropped to a 20-year low in the fourth quarter as more Americans opted to rent rather than purchase homes."
"Vox has uncovered a demographic study from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that forecasted the participation rate in the US economy would be 65.5% in 2016. It’s 62.7%.
So while the Fed is celebrating a 5.6% unemployment rate, the metric would be about 3 points higher if not for the crisis and the Fed wouldn’t be contemplating rate hikes.
What’s most concerning is men in the 25-54 cohort. They were projected to continue working at about a 91% participation rate. Instead, it’s nearly 10 points lower. Overall participation by both sexes in that age range is 80.65% compared to 84.5% expected. That’s a lot of workers on the sidelines."
And finally, IBM is laying off workers here. Not to worry. Burger King is hiring, for 29 hour part time work.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Schiff was selling the truth about the economy long before he began selling the protection.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
cohodk, you should read your own reuters link, not just the headline:
"The fall unwound the prior weeks' increases, which had pushed claims above the key 300,000 threshold"
"The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes tumbled to an eight-month low in December."
"Separately, the Commerce Department said the homeownership rate dropped to a 20-year low in the fourth quarter as more Americans opted to rent rather than purchase homes."
"Vox has uncovered a demographic study from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that forecasted the participation rate in the US economy would be 65.5% in 2016. It’s 62.7%.
So while the Fed is celebrating a 5.6% unemployment rate, the metric would be about 3 points higher if not for the crisis and the Fed wouldn’t be contemplating rate hikes.
What’s most concerning is men in the 25-54 cohort. They were projected to continue working at about a 91% participation rate. Instead, it’s nearly 10 points lower. Overall participation by both sexes in that age range is 80.65% compared to 84.5% expected. That’s a lot of workers on the sidelines."
And finally, IBM is laying off workers here. Not to worry. Burger King is hiring, for 29 hour part time work. >>
Why everyone gets so caught up in this labor participation rate stat is beyond me. Did anyone ever talk about this rate prior to 5 years ago? So now its so important? There are many reasons why this rate is down most importantly due to early retirement of baby boomers. One such example is a prominent and vocal contributor to this forum. And there are millions more.
5.6% is probably a bit understated but it certainly isnt 15% as so many like to pronounce.
I read the link and see the numbers...the trend is still down. That said, its getting a bit low and may very well bottom. But that wont mean the economy is lousy. The jobs opening (available jobs) is at a 12 year high. Just because 56 yr old J6P doesnt want to work for less money than he thinks hes worth (probably overpaid during the last decade) doesnt mean the unemployment rate or labor participation rates are wrong or misguided.
And home ownership may continue to drop. Why? Demographics. Baby boomers. You think they want to mow grass, rake leaves, shovel snow? Do they need 3000 sq ft houses? Of course not. They downsize into apartments or condos where they dont have to maintain the property. Many Gen Y feel the same. They want to be burdened with home ownership--at least not until they have kids. The Gen X population is the smallest of the generations and is in family mode right now. They are the biggest consumers, but there arent enough of them. The economy and real estate will not return to the "good old days" until the Gen Y starts to stake roots.
We've got 10 more years of this "slow growth". Get used to it. Identify trends. Prepare for the next generation bulge. Profit.
Some people give way to much credit to the affect of demographics on the economy. The only thing it directly affects besides total savings parked in a bank is where money is spent. Has little to nothing to do with how much gets spent. What the oldies don't have to spend, someone else does.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
O.K so I do not know much about how the bond market works, but tell me if this is true?
If you own a bond that pays say 2% and the Feds publish rate goes to say 4% doesn’t that mean if you go to sell YOUR bond you have to sell it at a discount?
O.K. The FED owns all these bonds say 4 Trillion dollars worth. They bought all these bonds that pay very low interest rates, right?
If they raise the interest rate say 1% this year doesn’t that mean that all those bonds they bought are worth less because they are at a lesser rate.
Doesn’t raising the interest rate mean hurting the position they already own?
If you own a bond that pays say 2% and the Feds publish rate goes to say 4% doesn’t that mean if you go to sell YOUR bond you have to sell it at a discount?
Great insight, GS. Yes, a rise in interest rates requires discounting of existing bonds, across the board.
O.K. The FED owns all these bonds say 4 Trillion dollars worth. They bought all these bonds that pay very low interest rates, right?
Yes, this is true.
If they raise the interest rate say 1% this year doesn’t that mean that all those bonds they bought are worth less because they are at a lesser rate.
Yes, in fact it does. All of their holdings will be worth less than before.
Doesn’t raising the interest rate mean hurting the position they already own?
Yes, that is correct. It doesn't sound like a very good banking strategy, does it? I guess you could say that it will lead to insolvency if higher rates drop the value of their assets below the amount of debt on their balance sheet.
But that would mean our banking system is insolvent. And then it would have to be bailed out by the taxpaying public. Again. Or by more money creation, key-strokes, etc.
By the same token, raising rates will be a deal-killer for the existing bonds, and for anyone who owns them.
Not a pretty picture, unless someone can chime in with a nifty solution to the problem. Maybe gov.com will rush to the rescue. Who knows?
My bet is that keystroking is more politically-viable than significantly raising taxes, except that obamacare already did that, (thanks Supreme Court.)
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I also am not entirely clear on bonds either. But if you own a bond at 2% and rates go to 4% I understand you take a discount IF you sell your bond. But you can always hold it to maturity and get your 2%, right? If you hold to maturity you don't really take a loss, your money is just locked in earning a rate that is lower than what other debt pays, correct?
<< <i>If you hold to maturity you don't really take a loss, your money is just locked in earning a rate that is lower than what other debt pays, correct? >>
Do not forget that inflation affects the value of the dollars you receive at maturity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
ProofCollection “But you can always hold it to maturity and get your 2% Right”
Do you think the Fed wants to hold these very low rate bonds to maturity when they know that true inflation is over 3%?
So based on this, the Fed is just blowing smoke about ever raising rates until some fool comes and takes them out of a great deal of their position, and who might that be?
I do not think it will be the U.S. Treasury which cannot even pay the interest on its own debt, and must roll it all over.
I do not think the U.S. tax payer and the Republican Congress is going to raise taxes to bail them out. So without losing billions on those bonds just how do they get their balance sheet back to it normal 500 Billion from 4 plus Trillion?
If you hold to maturity you don't really take a loss, your money is just locked in earning a rate that is lower than what other debt pays, correct?
That is correct, in nominal dollars. As derryb points out, those nominal dollars may lose some purchasing power along the way, or in fact - have already lost some purchasing power if interest rates have gone to 4%.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>If you hold to maturity you don't really take a loss, your money is just locked in earning a rate that is lower than what other debt pays, correct?
That is correct, in nominal dollars. As derryb points out, those nominal dollars may lose some purchasing power along the way, or in fact - have already lost some purchasing power if interest rates have gone to 4%. >>
Normally, the longer the bond the greater the loss of the initial investment due to inflation. The dollars you get back at maturity are historically not worth as much as the dollars you initially invested. Your hope is a yield that will over time return more than the eventual loss of dollar value on the initial investment. At maturity, the difference of your total yield minus the loss of value of initial investment dollars is your net return on the investment. Estimated future value of money should always be a consideration with long term investments. Most holders of savings accounts (when they paid decent interest) failed to understand this. And many boasted returns on earlier investments fail to include this.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
purpose of the chart is to show the past 12 month turmoil in major currencies. I would only buy gold if I believed the downward spiral of the currency I am buying it with is going to continue. While each may have its moments, most likely scenario is long term currency devaluation.
No three year, here's a five year:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We are in the middle of an economic and political crisis that there are no risk-free assets and sovereign exposures by banks and pension funds are going to get a very rude awakening. Anyone who claims to be not a doom and gloomer is either a sublime idiot or a fool in denial. This is not a system that can be sustained indefinitely.
An interesting quote today from Armstrong's Economics daily blog. He said it....not me.
He's already put the word out for the current war cycle and the big bang coming after Sept 2015. Now he's just another tin foil hat conspiracy theorist.......... just like the rest of us around here....lol.
<< <i>What do you think? Should the Europeans, Japanese, Canadians, British, etc, buy gold or sell gold after such a short term move?
I know that that chart seems to be telling me, but what do YOU think, Baley? Just curious. >>
Well, obviously it depends on the individual, if they have a lot of gold and it makes a spike, maybe they should sell some of it, on the other hand, if they do not have any gold then maybe they should buy some, so that next time it spikes, they'll have some to sell, but on the other hand maybe they should wait until it comes back down to buy in.
If they do not have a lot of gold, and they do not have zero gold, but instead have some gold, maybe they should just sit tight and not think about gold unless they like to play with the coins and bars in the meantime, or maybe they should sell one of their duplicate gold coins and buy one with a different design on it. Or maybe an older coin.
Well at this point I think we can assume that the Russians and the Chinese are pretty tight , especially after the new pipeline to China was announced last year. We also know that the Chinese buy all the Gold mined in China and also buy on the open market. Sooooo, the rumor is China would like to have the World Reserve Currency status.
When sanctions hit Russia over the Ukraine it was also rumored that Russia would have to sell some of the gold they had been buying, but they did not, so perhaps they know something about China that the rest of us do not???
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
Then Jim Willie's latest is sure to bust your gut. >>
CONCLUSION
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
I think there's a good chance the Chinese (when they achieve reserve currency status or at some other point just prior) will remove their peg to the USD and establish a peg to gold or a gold standard. They love their gold and are hoarding and acquiring it to an extent few anticipate. This will send the rest of the world into crisis, but it will be the only thing that will finally (maybe) force/co-erce the rest of the world to transition back to sound money banking principals/systems. This move will of course render China the undisputed economic king of the world, which you know they want desperately to be.
<< <i>
<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
Then Jim Willie's latest is sure to bust your gut. >>
You gotta love the fiat and stock bugs who continue to quote the immortal words of Alfred E. Newman: What, me worry? . They're never gonna see it coming.
I'm a gold bug, too, remember. Just a well rounded one. The world doesn't have to end for my investment thesis to pay off
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
Then Jim Willie's latest is sure to bust your gut. >>
CONCLUSION
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
I think there's a good chance the Chinese (when they achieve reserve currency status or at some other point just prior) will remove their peg to the USD and establish a peg to gold or a gold standard. They love their gold and are hoarding and acquiring it to an extent few anticipate. This will send the rest of the world into crisis, but it will be the only thing that will finally (maybe) force/co-erce the rest of the world to transition back to sound money banking principals/systems. This move will of course render China the undisputed economic king of the world, which you know they want desperately to be. >>
China's gov't and private debts have zoomed from 156% of GDP in 2007 to 251% of GDP in mid 2014 (World Bank report). Can they or would they peg their currency to gold with this much debt? I dunno.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>There's no inflation:
Hotel room rates may be hiked 'aggressively,' forecaster says
Hotel owners across the U.S. are expected to be told later Monday they should be able to "aggressively" raise room prices this year, with one consultancy already forecasting the national average room rate to rise 5.4 percent. >>
I remember staying in at "on the highway" hotel chain on a trip to Montana about a dozen years agopaying about $65 a night. I just got a room at the same chain in Salt Lake for $59. And I got breakfast. >>
That is one of the least-fair comparisons you can make, especially if a hotel franchise. Rates vary and change based on date, day of the week, location, and how far in advance you make the reservation, not to mention the possibility of catching a promotion or sale one time but not the next. In addition many chain hotels are franchises owned by individuals who can set rates where they want. You really need to compare average rates as the article did to get any indication. As a regular visitor to Vegas (4-5 times/yr) and savvy shopper for room rates, clearly rates have increased over time.
To make an absurd example, you could say that last year you staying in Glendale, AZ near the stadium (for the Super Bowl this year) and it was only $100/nt but this weekend it's $1500! Not a fair comparison. >>
No reservation. No advance booking unless booking online 15 min before I got there counts. My example is much more accurate than trying to compare to the Superbowl.
BTW---vegas has some of the cheapest rooms in America. Enjoy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>LMAO, oh, that's just precious, brilliantly written, pure pablum for the doom n gloomers to lap up greedily and spew back on chat boards as "fact". Thanks for sharing
edit: and don't get me started on "Kunstler," it's just too easy. Ok, maybe just one: Who is that, the anti-hero in a Hard "R" rated Dr. Suess book? >>
Then Jim Willie's latest is sure to bust your gut. >>
CONCLUSION
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
I think there's a good chance the Chinese (when they achieve reserve currency status or at some other point just prior) will remove their peg to the USD and establish a peg to gold or a gold standard. They love their gold and are hoarding and acquiring it to an extent few anticipate. This will send the rest of the world into crisis, but it will be the only thing that will finally (maybe) force/co-erce the rest of the world to transition back to sound money banking principals/systems. This move will of course render China the undisputed economic king of the world, which you know they want desperately to be. >>
It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>China and sound economic principles used in the same sentence. Awesome!!! >>
No more shocking than US and socialism in the same sentence.
<< <i>And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. >>
Reserve currency status is what has enabled economic dominance. It is our economic A-bomb as currently demonstrated by world-wide currency turmoil. Imagine our military strength without the threat of a nuclear arsenal. Bear witness to Britain's previous loss of reserve currency status and Spain before them. History shows reserve status as providing other important forms of world status. But this time it will be different?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime.
<< <i>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Yup, and before your kids have kids.
How come no one talking about this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0L21M020150129
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No its isnt. It is the will and power and intelligence and strength of this country. Not a bunch of "worthless" paper.
If the US loses its reserve currency status, will its nukes and tanks and bombers and ships disappear? Will Silicon Valley disappear? Will the sun stop shining in Florida and California? Will the oil in Texas and North Dakota and Alaska, its natural gas in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma disappear? Will its coal in Appalachia disappear? Will the Mississippi run dry? Or the Great Lakes drain? Will its trees all die?
Great Britain is an island nation. Spain ruled by Kings. Neither has vast natural resources.
For someone who has such disdain for the dollar, you sure do give it a lot of credit.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
CONCLUSION
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money. >>
At least he is upbeat.
<< <i>For someone who has such disdain for the dollar, you sure do give it a lot of credit. >>
Not as much as the people who are willing to sacrifice your son or daughter to defend it.
I like dollars. I just hate to see the ones I have run into the ground by people who place total importance on "'now" with no regard for "later."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>For someone who has such disdain for the dollar, you sure do give it a lot of credit. >>
Not as much as the people who are willing to sacrifice your son or daughter to defend it.
I like dollars. I just hate to see the ones I have run into the ground by people who place total importance on "'now" with no regard for "later." >>
Wai.. wha? Is the dollar being run into the ground, or is it growing dangerously strong? Me is confused
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Yup, and before your kids have kids.
How come no one talking about this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0L21M020150129 >>
You clearly don't know India very well.
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Yup, and before your kids have kids.
How come no one talking about this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0L21M020150129 >>
You clearly don't know India very well.
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
<< <i>Military service in this country is voluntary. >>
It hasn't always been and probably won't always be.
<< <i>Wai.. wha? Is the dollar being run into the ground, or is it growing dangerously strong? Me is confused
Compared to the Euro, which makes up 57% of the dollar index, it's strong. The last time the dollar was super "strong " like this (fall of 2008), the banking and financial systems almost collapsed.
Did they "almost"? Just like hurricane Sandy, or this recent snowstorm, "almost" killed the eastern seaboard?
I'd type more about semantics, but my fingers might almost fall off, besides, I'm going to make a sandwich, because I haven't eaten since lunch, and I'm almost starving to death.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Some of the nicest people I've met.
The infrastructure is among the worst I've seen.
I think India invented "red tape."
Worst traffic (Delhi and Mumbai is all I know.)
Great curry.
Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Yup, and before your kids have kids.
How come no one talking about this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0L21M020150129 >>
You clearly don't know India very well.
And the reason no one is talking about the US Jobless rate? The numbers are BS and we all know it. The population as a whole has less dollars to spend - and their money buys less than ever before. >>
Of course I know nothing and all statistics all lies. What else ya got?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It will usher in the beginning of the next great superpower--India, which will grow faster than China ever did. And with the USA- unshackled from a reserve currency- as a friend, India will be the greatest investment theme in your lifetime. Far and away outpacing gold. >>
India? Sorry, not in our lifetime. >>
Some of the nicest people I've met.
The infrastructure is among the worst I've seen.
I think India invented "red tape."
Worst traffic (Delhi and Mumbai is all I know.)
Great curry. >>
Sounds like a lot of future potential.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Peter Schiff is a pretty smart guy:
Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar? >>
If he was smart he would stop surrounding himself with fear. He's much more emotional than smart.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>the banking and financial systems almost collapsed
Did they "almost"? Just like hurricane Sandy, or this recent snowstorm, "almost" killed the eastern seaboard?
I'd type more about semantics, but my fingers might almost fall off, besides, I'm going to make a sandwich, because I haven't eaten since lunch, and I'm almost starving to death. >>
The were in collapse mode until the FED stepped in with $TRILLIONs in slush money to pay off the loser's derivative's losses around the world. Yes, without FED intervention, the banking system would have collapsed.
No semantics involved here. The big banks if left to themselves, would have failed. You at least have a choice to eat your sandwich....or just starve.....and it's not dependent on FED intervention.
<< <i>
<< <i>Peter Schiff is a pretty smart guy:
Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar? >>
If he was smart he would stop surrounding himself with fear. He's much more emotional than smart. >>
And I have a hard time following those who promote their own PM business
<< <i>
<< <i>Peter Schiff is a pretty smart guy:
Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar? >>
If he was smart he would stop surrounding himself with fear. He's much more emotional than smart. >>
I'm able to filter the fear an PM salesmanship and focus on the content.
cohodk, you should read your own reuters link, not just the headline:
"The fall unwound the prior weeks' increases, which had pushed claims above the key 300,000 threshold"
"The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes tumbled to an eight-month low in December."
"Separately, the Commerce Department said the homeownership rate dropped to a 20-year low in the fourth quarter as more Americans opted to rent rather than purchase homes."
And then, there's that knotty little issue of "labor participation" to consider...
"Vox has uncovered a demographic study from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that forecasted the participation rate in the US economy would be 65.5% in 2016. It’s 62.7%.
So while the Fed is celebrating a 5.6% unemployment rate, the metric would be about 3 points higher if not for the crisis and the Fed wouldn’t be contemplating rate hikes.
What’s most concerning is men in the 25-54 cohort. They were projected to continue working at about a 91% participation rate. Instead, it’s nearly 10 points lower. Overall participation by both sexes in that age range is 80.65% compared to 84.5% expected. That’s a lot of workers on the sidelines."
And finally, IBM is laying off workers here. Not to worry. Burger King is hiring, for 29 hour part time work.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Peter Schiff is a pretty smart guy:
Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar? >>
If he was smart he would stop surrounding himself with fear. He's much more emotional than smart. >>
I'm able to filter the fear an PM salesmanship and focus on the content. >>
Is there any content left?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>fixed
cohodk, you should read your own reuters link, not just the headline:
"The fall unwound the prior weeks' increases, which had pushed claims above the key 300,000 threshold"
"The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes tumbled to an eight-month low in December."
"Separately, the Commerce Department said the homeownership rate dropped to a 20-year low in the fourth quarter as more Americans opted to rent rather than purchase homes."
And then, there's that knotty little issue of "labor participation" to consider...
"Vox has uncovered a demographic study from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that forecasted the participation rate in the US economy would be 65.5% in 2016. It’s 62.7%.
So while the Fed is celebrating a 5.6% unemployment rate, the metric would be about 3 points higher if not for the crisis and the Fed wouldn’t be contemplating rate hikes.
What’s most concerning is men in the 25-54 cohort. They were projected to continue working at about a 91% participation rate. Instead, it’s nearly 10 points lower. Overall participation by both sexes in that age range is 80.65% compared to 84.5% expected. That’s a lot of workers on the sidelines."
And finally, IBM is laying off workers here. Not to worry. Burger King is hiring, for 29 hour part time work. >>
Why everyone gets so caught up in this labor participation rate stat is beyond me. Did anyone ever talk about this rate prior to 5 years ago? So now its so important? There are many reasons why this rate is down most importantly due to early retirement of baby boomers. One such example is a prominent and vocal contributor to this forum. And there are millions more.
5.6% is probably a bit understated but it certainly isnt 15% as so many like to pronounce.
I read the link and see the numbers...the trend is still down. That said, its getting a bit low and may very well bottom. But that wont mean the economy is lousy. The jobs opening (available jobs) is at a 12 year high. Just because 56 yr old J6P doesnt want to work for less money than he thinks hes worth (probably overpaid during the last decade) doesnt mean the unemployment rate or labor participation rates are wrong or misguided.
And home ownership may continue to drop. Why? Demographics. Baby boomers. You think they want to mow grass, rake leaves, shovel snow? Do they need 3000 sq ft houses? Of course not. They downsize into apartments or condos where they dont have to maintain the property. Many Gen Y feel the same. They want to be burdened with home ownership--at least not until they have kids. The Gen X population is the smallest of the generations and is in family mode right now. They are the biggest consumers, but there arent enough of them. The economy and real estate will not return to the "good old days" until the Gen Y starts to stake roots.
We've got 10 more years of this "slow growth". Get used to it. Identify trends. Prepare for the next generation bulge. Profit.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gerber? Huggies?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Prepare for the next generation bulge.
Gerber? Huggies? >>
Depends and bingo halls.
Look at the demographic charts...they are readily available on the interweb.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If you own a bond that pays say 2% and the Feds publish rate goes to say 4% doesn’t that mean if you go to sell YOUR bond you have to sell it at a discount?
O.K. The FED owns all these bonds say 4 Trillion dollars worth. They bought all these bonds that pay very low interest rates, right?
If they raise the interest rate say 1% this year doesn’t that mean that all those bonds they bought are worth less because they are at a lesser rate.
Doesn’t raising the interest rate mean hurting the position they already own?
Great insight, GS. Yes, a rise in interest rates requires discounting of existing bonds, across the board.
O.K. The FED owns all these bonds say 4 Trillion dollars worth. They bought all these bonds that pay very low interest rates, right?
Yes, this is true.
If they raise the interest rate say 1% this year doesn’t that mean that all those bonds they bought are worth less because they are at a lesser rate.
Yes, in fact it does. All of their holdings will be worth less than before.
Doesn’t raising the interest rate mean hurting the position they already own?
Yes, that is correct. It doesn't sound like a very good banking strategy, does it? I guess you could say that it will lead to insolvency if higher rates drop the value of their assets below the amount of debt on their balance sheet.
But that would mean our banking system is insolvent. And then it would have to be bailed out by the taxpaying public. Again. Or by more money creation, key-strokes, etc.
By the same token, raising rates will be a deal-killer for the existing bonds, and for anyone who owns them.
Not a pretty picture, unless someone can chime in with a nifty solution to the problem. Maybe gov.com will rush to the rescue. Who knows?
My bet is that keystroking is more politically-viable than significantly raising taxes, except that obamacare already did that, (thanks Supreme Court.)
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If you hold to maturity you don't really take a loss, your money is just locked in earning a rate that is lower than what other debt pays, correct? >>
Do not forget that inflation affects the value of the dollars you receive at maturity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
“But you can always hold it to maturity and get your 2% Right”
Do you think the Fed wants to hold these very low rate bonds to maturity when they know that true inflation is over 3%?
So based on this, the Fed is just blowing smoke about ever raising rates until some fool comes and takes them out of a great deal of their position, and who might that be?
I do not think it will be the U.S. Treasury which cannot even pay the interest on its own debt, and must roll it all over.
I do not think the U.S. tax payer and the Republican Congress is going to raise taxes to bail them out. So without losing billions on those bonds just how do they get their balance sheet back to it normal 500 Billion from 4 plus Trillion?
That is correct, in nominal dollars. As derryb points out, those nominal dollars may lose some purchasing power along the way, or in fact - have already lost some purchasing power if interest rates have gone to 4%.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If you hold to maturity you don't really take a loss, your money is just locked in earning a rate that is lower than what other debt pays, correct?
That is correct, in nominal dollars. As derryb points out, those nominal dollars may lose some purchasing power along the way, or in fact - have already lost some purchasing power if interest rates have gone to 4%. >>
Normally, the longer the bond the greater the loss of the initial investment due to inflation. The dollars you get back at maturity are historically not worth as much as the dollars you initially invested. Your hope is a yield that will over time return more than the eventual loss of dollar value on the initial investment. At maturity, the difference of your total yield minus the loss of value of initial investment dollars is your net return on the investment. Estimated future value of money should always be a consideration with long term investments. Most holders of savings accounts (when they paid decent interest) failed to understand this. And many boasted returns on earlier investments fail to include this.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Gold tells it like it is with currencies:
Cool chart. Two questions:
1) What do you think? Should the Europeans, Japanese, Canadians, British, etc, buy gold or sell gold after such a short term move?
2) What does the 3 and 5 year chart of the same measurements look like?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
No three year, here's a five year:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I know what that chart seems to be telling me, but what do YOU think, Baley? Just curious.
I knew it would happen.
An interesting quote today from Armstrong's Economics daily blog. He said it....not me.
He's already put the word out for the current war cycle and the big bang coming after Sept 2015. Now he's just another tin foil hat conspiracy theorist.......... just like the rest of us around here....lol.
Article - "The Solution"
Thanks to Jmski52 to remind me to keep an eye on what MA is saying. Heck, he even got gold right the past 3 years.
<< <i>What do you think? Should the Europeans, Japanese, Canadians, British, etc, buy gold or sell gold after such a short term move?
I know that that chart seems to be telling me, but what do YOU think, Baley? Just curious. >>
Well, obviously it depends on the individual, if they have a lot of gold and it makes a spike, maybe they should sell some of it, on the other hand, if they do not have any gold then maybe they should buy some, so that next time it spikes, they'll have some to sell, but on the other hand maybe they should wait until it comes back down to buy in.
If they do not have a lot of gold, and they do not have zero gold, but instead have some gold, maybe they should just sit tight and not think about gold unless they like to play with the coins and bars in the meantime, or maybe they should sell one of their duplicate gold coins and buy one with a different design on it. Or maybe an older coin.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
We also know that the Chinese buy all the Gold mined in China and also buy on the open market. Sooooo, the rumor is China would like to have the World Reserve Currency status.
When sanctions hit Russia over the Ukraine it was also rumored that Russia would have to sell some of the gold they had been buying, but they did not, so perhaps they know something about China that the rest of us do not???