<< <i>This is an excellent website. Click on every country. Look at the population trends and keep in mind that the largest economic demands are from those age 30-50 (although this can vary by life expectancy in each country). Which countries will see increased demand. Which are past their peak? Which have unstable governments? What are the dominant religions in each? What is the geography of each and its neighbors'? Which have young populations and which old?
That is an amazing website. It is evidence for a view that GDP may understate the value of advances in technology.
I wish I could look at global demographics and share your optimism. Your point is certainly valid and is not inconsistent with the data. But, I wonder if development over the next 20 - 30 years can happen peacefully unless the US and China decide to collaborate as global dual hegemons? Coming to some sort of meaningful collaboration (as opposed to trying to carve up the world) might be possible, if our leaders undertake a sober analysis of the consequences of not collaborating. But, is there a significant example from history where an emerging power and a declining power (in a relative sense) did not collide? That's not a rhetorical question--I don't know the answer. >>
Please dont read my comments as overly optimistic. The fastest pop growth is among very poor Muslim countries. We already have a taste of what happens when young males (and females) have no prospects for gainful employment or betterment of lifestyle in these countries. Pay particular attention to Afghanistan and Indonesia.
In an attempt to answer your question I would look at the relative geographic location of the US and China. Which country is physically closer to potential religious unrest? China, IMO, must pay closer attention to this problem than the US. And as a result there very well could be collaboration between these 2 countries.
And you assume that the fed will always control interest rates
What? I dont think I hae EVER said such a thing. In fact, I believe I am on record as saying the FED has very little control over rates.
I honestly don't see GDP increasing more than 1-3%/year as it has been doing consistently. Do you? And if so what would drive it? Do you foresee the rate of increase of debt to increase, decrease, or stay the same?
When the boomers have stopped their massive drain on resources, GDP will grow much faster than debt.
Umm, the US *is* bankrupt
Umm, no it isnt. The US has a cash flow problem which is much different have having liabilities exceed assets.
True, but the potential for a worldwide life changing event - WWIII, nuke deployment, 9-11 level terrorist attack is probably higher than it has been in a long time
My opinion differs. 9-11 happened during the midst of a recession when the equity markets and economy were already falling. A similar 9-11 attack in a growing economy would have less impact. If we have WWIIII, then of course all bets are off. Is that something you wish to hang your hat on? The risks today of that are no greater than in 1963 (Cuba), 1973 (Vietnam), 1983 (Cold War), 1993 (first World Trade Center bombing), or 2003 (Iraq war), or 2013 (Syria-Isis).
And for relative comparison the GDP of the US doubled during WWII. A global war of similar proportion today could also see a similar increase in GDP.
<< <i>Umm, no it isnt. The US has a cash flow problem which is much different have having liabilities exceed assets. >>
It's just a cash flow problem? Funny; Cash flow problems are temporary unless you can print the cash. My belief that you are banker shill is reaffirmed.
Perpetually borrowing just to pay interest on what you already owe is much more serious than a "cash flow" problem. It is THE sign of a fatally flawed business model.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I've been called everything now. I must be doing something right. >>
Have you ever been called Baley?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I've been called everything now. I must be doing something right. >>
Have you ever been called Baley? >>
I am elated to see it is finally obvious to you that indeed I have been planted here--a decade ago--to infiltrate the ranks of this chatroom. THEY needed someone on the inside, someone who could be in the "circle of trust". Someone to plant false ideas to confuse the sheeple. To gather psychological understanding of the PM bugs so that THEY could manipulate and create chaos. The refute and promote conspiracy theories. Someone to provide hints into the future and make accurate predictions to further the notion of the omnipotent bankster. To promote this bankster as a villian, someone to be afraid of, someone to stoke the innate paranoia of humans.
The results of this experiment have gone well beyond expectations and I have been ordered (with generous compensation, of course) to stay the course to further exploit the fears of the masses. Just wait till you see what THEY have in store. BWUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH!!!!
Deflation is dead.....unless you have to buy something other than oil/gas/some commodities. Coffee and sugar hitting lows again in 2015.
I know my home insurance premium has been steadily increasing 10% a year now for the past few years. More so than the previous 10 years. The cost of materials to replace my home if it burns down are not deflating.
<< <i>Deflation is dead.....unless you have to buy something other than oil/gas/some commodities. Coffee and sugar hitting lows again in 2015.
I know my home insurance premium has been steadily increasing 10% a year now for the past few years. More so than the previous 10 years. The cost of materials to replace my home if it burns down are not deflating. >>
No doubt there are price increases in some services and goods, just like there are price drops in the same. Have you shopped your insurance?, Probably worth a look. Our previous carrier went up, Insurance is volatile here in a coastal area, we shopped it and saved about 35% for the same coverage, same deductible...which is less than we paid a number of years ago.
BTW coh doesn't really need my backing, but he obviously has never said the Fed controlled long term rates.
<< <i>And the worst performing assets during the month of February are?
You guessed it...gold and silver >>
Right after they were the best performing assets in January. Funny how perspective changes so easily.
---------------------------------
Deflation is dead.....unless you have to buy something other than oil/gas/some commodities. Coffee and sugar hitting lows again in 2015.
But, there's an IF involved here. IF you buy the crap coffees that use the lowest generic quality beans, have minimal processing labor, shipping, and other costs, those you can get on sale as the big stores try to move it in bulk. But buy a quality coffee or a specialty brand that tastes good and will not go rancid in short order and it's probably up in price. Coffee may be down the past 3-4 months but it's still higher than at any time since early 2014 (up approx 40% in 2014). Sugar at approx a 5 year low but most anything in a finished product containing sugar is probably the same to higher in price. Most boxed foods that have sugar in them won't be any cheaper. I doubt you'll find your kid's corn or wheat cereal + sugar any cheaper than in previous years. And if it is cheaper, the box is probably 15-20% smaller in volume/weight. Cocoa has been rising in price and it's often found with sugar in finished products. You can bet that rising cocoa will more than offset falling sugar prices. Bottom line is that despite raw commodity prices being lower, the finished goods have probably not gone down in price due to the cost for businesses to produce the product (exceptions include oil, nat gas, gasoline). It's even more amazing that finished consumer goods (especially foods) haven't plummeted considering how far oil has dropped.
<< <i>And the worst performing assets during the month of February are?
You guessed it...gold and silver >>
Right after they were the best performing assets in January. Funny how perspective changes so easily.
---------------------------------
Deflation is dead.....unless you have to buy something other than oil/gas/some commodities. Coffee and sugar hitting lows again in 2015.
But, there's an IF involved here. IF you buy the crap coffees that use the lowest generic quality beans, have minimal processing labor, shipping, and other costs, those you can get on sale as the big stores try to move it in bulk. But buy a quality coffee or a specialty brand that tastes good and will not go rancid in short order and it's probably up in price. Coffee may be down the past 3-4 months but it's still higher than at any time since early 2014 (up approx 40% in 2014). Sugar at approx a 5 year low but most anything in a finished product containing sugar is probably the same to higher in price. Most boxed foods that have sugar in them won't be any cheaper. I doubt you'll find your kid's corn or wheat cereal + sugar any cheaper than in previous years. And if it is cheaper, the box is probably 15-20% smaller in volume/weight. Cocoa has been rising in price and it's often found with sugar in finished products. You can bet that rising cocoa will more than offset falling sugar prices. Bottom line is that despite raw commodity prices being lower, the finished goods have probably not gone down in price due to the cost for businesses to produce the product (exceptions include oil, nat gas, gasoline). It's even more amazing that finished consumer goods (especially foods) haven't plummeted considering how far oil has dropped. >>
great point here, and that's LABOR, i.e someone's time and skill in producing and delivering the product. Those of us in the business of producing products in America certainly understand that the more and better quality LABOR in a product justifies a higher price, both in seller's setting pricing, and in consumers willing to pay for that quality (versus the lowest common denominator products, which are probably what's deflating in both price and demand, due both to increased efficiency (cost and labor reduction) by scale-up and standardization (versus custom or semi-custom, small-batch work) as well as reduced demand, by discriminating consumers, who, as stated above, are willing to BID UP PRICES for "the good stuff"... and none of this concept is new to 2015, just more people becoming aware..
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song.
"The central banks have twisted the whole concept of easing … pretending that they’re trying to help the economy, when they’re doing something else entirely."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The central banks have twisted the whole concept of easing … pretending that they’re trying to help the economy, when they’re doing something else entirely."
After 100 years it time to cut out the middle man (the Fed) and just create a bank owned by the federal government if that is all possible. Would that be more ruinous than the current FED?
<< <i>The central banks have twisted the whole concept of easing … pretending that they’re trying to help the economy, when they’re doing something else entirely."
After 100 years it time to cut out the middle man (the Fed) and just create a bank owned by the federal government if that is all possible. Would that be more ruinous than the current FED? >>
I don't think a primary US Bank managed by USTreasury and our senators and congressman would fare too well either.
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song. >>
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song. >>
At least you can quote the actual number: A million billion........(or 700,000 billion using BIS stats). But what's a few extra zeroes between friends.
I've been complaining about that for years. "Repairing the balance sheet" of any corporation amounts to injecting money to cover existing losses.
So that the principals can have their bonuses uninterrupted.
The national debt is so huge that these little increments of $800 billion here and $80 billion a month there - over a 40 year amortization period, they are scarcely a wrinkle in the tidal wave.
But like any good titration, there is an endpoint and it happens suddenly.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song. >>
At least you can quote the actual number: A million billion........(or 700,000 billion using BIS stats). But what's a few extra zeroes between friends. >>
Sorry, I thought this was the exaggeration thread.
There will eventually be some revision to the mean as is the norm. Though the source indicated it could take hundreds of years to fill up some of those lower aquifers that are being tapped. A lot of California was already desert before the water was piped in. What happens when the water runs out? Too many people using those resources is the problem, not AG or NWO. 8000 years ago the Sahara desert was green and flush with water from plenty of rain. Did that rain come back "like it always does?" Do you have 8,000+ years to wait to prove you're right?
This will be our 8th year of a drought in Texas. Most of the bigger cites here are just in denial about how desperate things will get as the water runs out. The city of Austin Texas relies almost entirely on Lake Travis for its water, and the lake is 70% dry. This lake is feed by upstream Lakes, the most important of which is Lake Buchanan.
I happen to have a small water front Lake cabin on Buchanan and there has not been any water under my dock for 8 years. In fact the water is some 250 feet from that dock. I sold my boat 7 years ago when there was about 9 inches under it, just enough to get it out of the slip. We have had enough sprinkles this winter to insure good wild flower season but nothing really to replace the underground water that has been used.
My places in SoCal are relatively low water usage but do have greenery that gets thirsty, especially in the summer. Things like green belts and pools, we "commune" with the associations for efficiency. I generally boycott golf courses on an ethical basis and some of them I wish they'd develop into housing. Cemetarys too,
4th year of drought here, the snow pack and water tables at historic all-time lows, at least in the relatively short time that human records have been kept, I'm sure there were some even more major fluctuations that lasted millenia when time is reckoned geologically.
My family's next real estate investment purchase will be land in a more northerly latitude that has natural flowing water running through it.
Take purposeful action folks, or let "them" do it to you
It is hard to have any respect for water when all you have to do is turn a $2 handle and you have plenty. The very first thing you do in a survival adventure is find water, then shelter, then food. Without water, the shelter and food become unimportant. When urban centers start distributing grey water (processed toilet effluent) for potable use then maybe folks will realize that golf courses and St. Augustine yards are maybe not so necessary but before then...nah. Until there is no water except grey water, people will just talk about it and say "We've got to do something" but likely it will be way too late.
New Home Sales Surge to Highest Level Since February 2008
New home sales increased 7.8% in February to 539,000 from an upwardly revised 500,000 (from 481,000) in January. The Briefing.com Consensus expected new home sales to decline to 465,000.
All of the conditions in February were geared to cause a big decline in demand. Inclement weather conditions in the Northeast and Midwest were expected to keep potential buyers away from meeting with builders, and rising mortgage rates were expected make new homes unaffordable. Neither underlying factor seemed to play a role in new home demand.
The weather factor was debunked as sales in the Northeast increased 152.9% in February to 43,000 from 17,000 in January.
Higher mortgage rates didn't seem to harm sales in February. Overall, it was the strongest selling month since 593,000 new home were sold in February 2008.
Like the existing home sector, supply constraints may be keeping sales growth from accelerating even further. At the current sales pace, there are only 4.7 months' supply available. That is down from 5.1 months' in January and well below the 6.0 months' supply kept during normal periods of buying and selling activities.
The median new home price increased 2.6% y/y to $275,500
The earth has all the water it has always had. It doesn't disappear, it is constantly recycled.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>New home sales increased 7.8% in February to 539,000 from an upwardly revised 500,000 (from 481,000) in January. The Briefing.com Consensus expected new home sales to decline to 465,000. >>
Congrats to the country, the rate of new homes sales is back to 1992 levels (which was a dip, and 500k units is a pretty low number even going back to the 1960's). In other words, the rate has been well over 539k since 1992 except for 2008 until now. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/historical_data/
<< <i>All of the conditions in February were geared to cause a big decline in demand. Inclement weather conditions in the Northeast and Midwest were expected to keep potential buyers away from meeting with builders, and rising mortgage rates were expected make new homes unaffordable. Neither underlying factor seemed to play a role in new home demand.
The weather factor was debunked as sales in the Northeast increased 152.9% in February to 43,000 from 17,000 in January. >>
Translation: We'll trot out the weather excuse when it fits, but we got lucky and didn't have to.
<< <i>Higher mortgage rates didn't seem to harm sales in February. Overall, it was the strongest selling month since 593,000 new home were sold in February 2008. >>
I don't know the exact rates, but if 4% interest vs 3% interest is deterring anyone, they probably shouldn't be buying a home.
<< <i>Like the existing home sector, supply constraints may be keeping sales growth from accelerating even further. At the current sales pace, there are only 4.7 months' supply available. That is down from 5.1 months' in January and well below the 6.0 months' supply kept during normal periods of buying and selling activities. >>
Funny they fail to mention that existing home sales disappointed yesterday: The National Association of Realtors said on Monday that existing home sales rose 1.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.88 million units, failing to reverse January's 4.9 percent plunge.
<< <i>The median new home price increased 2.6% y/y to $275,500 >>
Inflation in homes and stocks good. Inflation in other items bad.
I said in the first of these threads that the government would let gold run to about $1200 and try to hold it before letting it go to $2100. I believe it's time. Watch for it to overshoot again though before easing back down.
This will probably mean another run for silver and coins but the impact here is much more depen- dent on how well the economy does and money velocity.
Inflation numbers must tick up a little which will fuel a rapid increase in gold.
Holding it at 2100 could be doable for the foreseeable future but so long as we're bleeding red ink and spending money like a drunken sailor with an unlimited debit card a far higher price for gold will eventually emerge.
Well Baley this is not mockery, just some agreement that it appears we just cannot kill this economy. Just forget for a moment that we have the worst Socialist President anyone could imagine, that we are 18 trillion in debt, that the Fed is holding 4 trillion plus in bonds it may never be able to sell, and dozens of Americas largest cities are bankrupt.
Forget that the gold bugs and bloggers have been saying a crash is eminent any time now, and they have been blowing that horn for over ten years. If one looks at only the numbers there is no way any of this should hold together, but it always seems to. What is left out is the American human mentality of, “Just keep moving no mater what”.
Hey Brother I am a hard asset guy. Almost all my assets are in real-estate, oil companies, gold, silver, and numismatic coins.
<< <i>Wake up clad... Clad... Clad, wake up, it's only a dream... >>
Maybe!
Some of it is more like a nightmare, really.
The FED can't repeal natural law no matter how they try. Nature always has the final accounting and doesn't take IOU's. At some point there is a choice between reality and the status quo and I believe it is the FED that is dreaming.
<< <i>Wake up clad... Clad... Clad, wake up, it's only a dream... >>
Maybe!
Some of it is more like a nightmare, really.
The FED can't repeal natural law no matter how they try. Nature always has the final accounting and doesn't take IOU's. At some point there is a choice between reality and the status quo and I believe it is the FED that is dreaming. >>
exactly right! the chickens will come home to roost, and they will cross the road to do it, there's no accounting for taste, and they have a taste for creative accounting! It's a fine kettle of fish that peter piper picked and a woodchuck chucked to get us in this house of cards and the big bad wolf is at the door! Oh my!
Play Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 27, 2015 : Production: U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.7 mln barrels per day during the week ending March 27, 2015, 198,000 barrels per day more than the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 89.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 9.7 mln barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging about 4.9 mln barrels per day.
Imports: U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 mln barrels per day last week, down by 44,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.3 mln barrels per day, 0.1% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 709,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 270,000 barrels per day last week.
Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.8 mln barrels from the previous week. At 471.4 mln barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.3 mln barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.3 mln barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.4 mln barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range.
Demand: Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.2 mln barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.1 mln barrels per day, up by 2.7% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged about 9.0 mln barrels per day, up by 1.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 3.8 mln barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 1.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 5.9% compared to the same four-week period last year.
Boomers do not want the responsibility if home ownership and millenials are not yet in family formation mode. That doesn't mean a bad economy, just the way it is. The new normal, at least for another 10 years.
Comments
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>population pyramid chart for the US confirms for me that demographics are not a current factor in US economy. >>
Then my belief in your ignorance of economics and demographics is reaffirmed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>This is an excellent website. Click on every country. Look at the population trends and keep in mind that the largest economic demands are from those age 30-50 (although this can vary by life expectancy in each country). Which countries will see increased demand. Which are past their peak? Which have unstable governments? What are the dominant religions in each? What is the geography of each and its neighbors'? Which have young populations and which old?
That is an amazing website. It is evidence for a view that GDP may understate the value of advances in technology.
I wish I could look at global demographics and share your optimism. Your point is certainly valid and is not inconsistent with the data. But, I wonder if development over the next 20 - 30 years can happen peacefully unless the US and China decide to collaborate as global dual hegemons? Coming to some sort of meaningful collaboration (as opposed to trying to carve up the world) might be possible, if our leaders undertake a sober analysis of the consequences of not collaborating. But, is there a significant example from history where an emerging power and a declining power (in a relative sense) did not collide? That's not a rhetorical question--I don't know the answer. >>
Please dont read my comments as overly optimistic. The fastest pop growth is among very poor Muslim countries. We already have a taste of what happens when young males (and females) have no prospects for gainful employment or betterment of lifestyle in these countries. Pay particular attention to Afghanistan and Indonesia.
In an attempt to answer your question I would look at the relative geographic location of the US and China. Which country is physically closer to potential religious unrest? China, IMO, must pay closer attention to this problem than the US. And as a result there very well could be collaboration between these 2 countries.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You guessed it...gold and silver
What? I dont think I hae EVER said such a thing. In fact, I believe I am on record as saying the FED has very little control over rates.
I honestly don't see GDP increasing more than 1-3%/year as it has been doing consistently. Do you? And if so what would drive it? Do you foresee the rate of increase of debt to increase, decrease, or stay the same?
When the boomers have stopped their massive drain on resources, GDP will grow much faster than debt.
Umm, the US *is* bankrupt
Umm, no it isnt. The US has a cash flow problem which is much different have having liabilities exceed assets.
True, but the potential for a worldwide life changing event - WWIII, nuke deployment, 9-11 level terrorist attack is probably higher than it has been in a long time
My opinion differs. 9-11 happened during the midst of a recession when the equity markets and economy were already falling. A similar 9-11 attack in a growing economy would have less impact. If we have WWIIII, then of course all bets are off. Is that something you wish to hang your hat on? The risks today of that are no greater than in 1963 (Cuba), 1973 (Vietnam), 1983 (Cold War), 1993 (first World Trade Center bombing), or 2003 (Iraq war), or 2013 (Syria-Isis).
And for relative comparison the GDP of the US doubled during WWII. A global war of similar proportion today could also see a similar increase in GDP.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Umm, the US *is* bankrupt >>
<< <i>Umm, no it isnt. The US has a cash flow problem which is much different have having liabilities exceed assets. >>
It's just a cash flow problem? Funny; Cash flow problems are temporary unless you can print the cash. My belief that you are banker shill is reaffirmed.
Perpetually borrowing just to pay interest on what you already owe is much more serious than a "cash flow" problem. It is THE sign of a fatally flawed business model.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Now I'm gonna be the Bogeyman.....Boo!!!
You fail to see the business model will change all by itself. And you will contribute to that change.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I've been called everything now. I must be doing something right. >>
Have you ever been called Baley?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>I've been called everything now. I must be doing something right. >>
Have you ever been called Baley?
I am elated to see it is finally obvious to you that indeed I have been planted here--a decade ago--to infiltrate the ranks of this chatroom. THEY needed someone on the inside, someone who could be in the "circle of trust". Someone to plant false ideas to confuse the sheeple. To gather psychological understanding of the PM bugs so that THEY could manipulate and create chaos. The refute and promote
The results of this experiment have gone well beyond expectations and I have been ordered (with generous compensation, of course) to stay the course to further exploit the fears of the masses. Just wait till you see what THEY have in store. BWUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH!!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I know my home insurance premium has been steadily increasing 10% a year now for the past few years. More so than the previous 10 years. The cost of materials to replace my home if it burns down are not deflating.
Box of 20
<< <i>Deflation is dead.....unless you have to buy something other than oil/gas/some commodities. Coffee and sugar hitting lows again in 2015.
I know my home insurance premium has been steadily increasing 10% a year now for the past few years. More so than the previous 10 years. The cost of materials to replace my home if it burns down are not deflating. >>
No doubt there are price increases in some services and goods, just like there are price drops in the same. Have you shopped your insurance?, Probably worth a look. Our previous carrier went up, Insurance is volatile here in a coastal area, we shopped it and saved about 35% for the same coverage, same deductible...which is less than we paid a number of years ago.
BTW coh doesn't really need my backing, but he obviously has never said the Fed controlled long term rates.
<< <i>And the worst performing assets during the month of February are?
You guessed it...gold and silver >>
Right after they were the best performing assets in January. Funny how perspective changes so easily.
---------------------------------
Deflation is dead.....unless you have to buy something other than oil/gas/some commodities. Coffee and sugar hitting lows again in 2015.
But, there's an IF involved here. IF you buy the crap coffees that use the lowest generic quality beans, have minimal processing labor, shipping, and other costs, those you can get on sale as the big stores try to move it in bulk. But buy a quality coffee or a specialty brand that tastes good and will not go rancid in short order and it's probably up in price. Coffee may be down the past 3-4 months but it's still higher than at any time since early 2014 (up approx 40% in 2014). Sugar at approx a 5 year low but most anything in a finished product containing sugar is probably the same to higher in price. Most boxed foods that have sugar in them won't be any cheaper. I doubt you'll find your kid's corn or wheat cereal + sugar any cheaper than in previous years. And if it is cheaper, the box is probably 15-20% smaller in volume/weight. Cocoa has been rising in price and it's often found with sugar in finished products. You can bet that rising cocoa will more than offset falling sugar prices. Bottom line is that despite raw commodity prices being lower, the finished goods have probably not gone down in price due to the cost for businesses to produce the product (exceptions include oil, nat gas, gasoline). It's even more amazing that finished consumer goods (especially foods) haven't plummeted considering how far oil has dropped.
<< <i>
<< <i>And the worst performing assets during the month of February are?
You guessed it...gold and silver >>
Right after they were the best performing assets in January. Funny how perspective changes so easily.
---------------------------------
Deflation is dead.....unless you have to buy something other than oil/gas/some commodities. Coffee and sugar hitting lows again in 2015.
But, there's an IF involved here. IF you buy the crap coffees that use the lowest generic quality beans, have minimal processing labor, shipping, and other costs, those you can get on sale as the big stores try to move it in bulk. But buy a quality coffee or a specialty brand that tastes good and will not go rancid in short order and it's probably up in price. Coffee may be down the past 3-4 months but it's still higher than at any time since early 2014 (up approx 40% in 2014). Sugar at approx a 5 year low but most anything in a finished product containing sugar is probably the same to higher in price. Most boxed foods that have sugar in them won't be any cheaper. I doubt you'll find your kid's corn or wheat cereal + sugar any cheaper than in previous years. And if it is cheaper, the box is probably 15-20% smaller in volume/weight. Cocoa has been rising in price and it's often found with sugar in finished products. You can bet that rising cocoa will more than offset falling sugar prices. Bottom line is that despite raw commodity prices being lower, the finished goods have probably not gone down in price due to the cost for businesses to produce the product (exceptions include oil, nat gas, gasoline). It's even more amazing that finished consumer goods (especially foods) haven't plummeted considering how far oil has dropped. >>
great point here, and that's LABOR, i.e someone's time and skill in producing and delivering the product. Those of us in the business of producing products in America certainly understand that the more and better quality LABOR in a product justifies a higher price, both in seller's setting pricing, and in consumers willing to pay for that quality (versus the lowest common denominator products, which are probably what's deflating in both price and demand, due both to increased efficiency (cost and labor reduction) by scale-up and standardization (versus custom or semi-custom, small-batch work) as well as reduced demand, by discriminating consumers, who, as stated above, are willing to BID UP PRICES for "the good stuff"... and none of this concept is new to 2015, just more people becoming aware..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
For what?
"The central banks have twisted the whole concept of easing … pretending that they’re trying to help the economy, when they’re doing something else entirely."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
After 100 years it time to cut out the middle man (the Fed) and just create a bank owned by the federal government if that is all possible. Would that be more ruinous than the current FED?
Box of 20
<< <i>The central banks have twisted the whole concept of easing … pretending that they’re trying to help the economy, when they’re doing something else entirely."
After 100 years it time to cut out the middle man (the Fed) and just create a bank owned by the federal government if that is all possible. Would that be more ruinous than the current FED? >>
I don't think a primary US Bank managed by USTreasury and our senators and congressman would fare too well either.
Driverless cars in major hubs may only be a few years away....death of cars?
<< <i>
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song. >>
Innovation trumps debt...©™
<< <i>
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song. >>
At least you can quote the actual number: A million billion........(or 700,000 billion using BIS stats). But what's a few extra zeroes between friends.
I've been complaining about that for years. "Repairing the balance sheet" of any corporation amounts to injecting money to cover existing losses.
So that the principals can have their bonuses uninterrupted.
The national debt is so huge that these little increments of $800 billion here and $80 billion a month there - over a 40 year amortization period, they are scarcely a wrinkle in the tidal wave.
But like any good titration, there is an endpoint and it happens suddenly.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Just out... All banks adequately capitalized... >>
Dont believe that for one minute. Not with 100 billion billion in derivatives. This is just more banksters policing banksters. The world is gonna end. Run to the Hills. Love that song. >>
At least you can quote the actual number: A million billion........(or 700,000 billion using BIS stats). But what's a few extra zeroes between friends.
Sorry, I thought this was the exaggeration thread.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Or maybe it's Al Gore and the NWO fault.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It will rain, always does.
Or maybe it's Al Gore and the NWO fault. >>
There will eventually be some revision to the mean as is the norm. Though the source indicated it could take hundreds of years to fill up some of those lower aquifers that are being tapped. A lot of California was already desert before the water was piped in. What happens when the water runs out? Too many people using those resources is the problem, not AG or NWO. 8000 years ago the Sahara desert was green and flush with water from plenty of rain. Did that rain come back "like it always does?" Do you have 8,000+ years to wait to prove you're right?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The city of Austin Texas relies almost entirely on Lake Travis for its water, and the lake is 70% dry. This lake is feed by upstream Lakes, the most important of which is Lake Buchanan.
I happen to have a small water front Lake cabin on Buchanan and there has not been any water under my dock for 8 years. In fact the water is some 250 feet from that dock. I sold my boat 7 years ago when there was about 9 inches under it, just enough to get it out of the slip.
We have had enough sprinkles this winter to insure good wild flower season but nothing really to replace the underground water that has been used.
4th year of drought here, the snow pack and water tables at historic all-time lows, at least in the relatively short time that human records have been kept, I'm sure there were some even more major fluctuations that lasted millenia when time is reckoned geologically.
My family's next real estate investment purchase will be land in a more northerly latitude that has natural flowing water running through it.
Take purposeful action folks, or let "them" do it to you
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
New home sales increased 7.8% in February to 539,000 from an upwardly revised 500,000 (from 481,000) in January. The Briefing.com Consensus expected new home sales to decline to 465,000.
All of the conditions in February were geared to cause a big decline in demand. Inclement weather conditions in the Northeast and Midwest were expected to keep potential buyers away from meeting with builders, and rising mortgage rates were expected make new homes unaffordable. Neither underlying factor seemed to play a role in new home demand.
The weather factor was debunked as sales in the Northeast increased 152.9% in February to 43,000 from 17,000 in January.
Higher mortgage rates didn't seem to harm sales in February. Overall, it was the strongest selling month since 593,000 new home were sold in February 2008.
Like the existing home sector, supply constraints may be keeping sales growth from accelerating even further. At the current sales pace, there are only 4.7 months' supply available. That is down from 5.1 months' in January and well below the 6.0 months' supply kept during normal periods of buying and selling activities.
The median new home price increased 2.6% y/y to $275,500
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Platinum/InDepth/InPlay.htm#ixzz3VJhAg7PF
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>See everything is really rainbows and unicorns!! >>
The Boston FED has always believed in Wishes & Rainbows. Follow the Road to Roota with them.
They are still working on getting the unicorns.
<< <i>New home sales increased 7.8% in February to 539,000 from an upwardly revised 500,000 (from 481,000) in January. The Briefing.com Consensus expected new home sales to decline to 465,000. >>
Congrats to the country, the rate of new homes sales is back to 1992 levels (which was a dip, and 500k units is a pretty low number even going back to the 1960's). In other words, the rate has been well over 539k since 1992 except for 2008 until now. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/historical_data/
<< <i>All of the conditions in February were geared to cause a big decline in demand. Inclement weather conditions in the Northeast and Midwest were expected to keep potential buyers away from meeting with builders, and rising mortgage rates were expected make new homes unaffordable. Neither underlying factor seemed to play a role in new home demand.
The weather factor was debunked as sales in the Northeast increased 152.9% in February to 43,000 from 17,000 in January. >>
Translation: We'll trot out the weather excuse when it fits, but we got lucky and didn't have to.
<< <i>Higher mortgage rates didn't seem to harm sales in February. Overall, it was the strongest selling month since 593,000 new home were sold in February 2008. >>
I don't know the exact rates, but if 4% interest vs 3% interest is deterring anyone, they probably shouldn't be buying a home.
<< <i>Like the existing home sector, supply constraints may be keeping sales growth from accelerating even further. At the current sales pace, there are only 4.7 months' supply available. That is down from 5.1 months' in January and well below the 6.0 months' supply kept during normal periods of buying and selling activities. >>
Funny they fail to mention that existing home sales disappointed yesterday:
The National Association of Realtors said on Monday that existing home sales rose 1.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.88 million units, failing to reverse January's 4.9 percent plunge.
<< <i>The median new home price increased 2.6% y/y to $275,500 >>
Inflation in homes and stocks good. Inflation in other items bad.
<< <i>See everything is really rainbows and unicorns!! >>
That's today's contribution, mockery of your own thread?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
try to hold it before letting it go to $2100. I believe it's time. Watch for it to overshoot again
though before easing back down.
This will probably mean another run for silver and coins but the impact here is much more depen-
dent on how well the economy does and money velocity.
Inflation numbers must tick up a little which will fuel a rapid increase in gold.
Holding it at 2100 could be doable for the foreseeable future but so long as we're bleeding red
ink and spending money like a drunken sailor with an unlimited debit card a far higher price for
gold will eventually emerge.
New Home Sales in Protracted Stagnation, Existing Home Sales Trending Lower
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>See everything is really rainbows and unicorns!! >>
That's today's contribution, mockery of your own thread? >>
It wasn't my thread. You apparently didn't read the "Roota" story as linked by the Boston FED. Many ironies there.
Forget that the gold bugs and bloggers have been saying a crash is eminent any time now, and they have been blowing that horn for over ten years. If one looks at only the numbers there is no way any of this should hold together, but it always seems to. What is left out is the American human mentality of, “Just keep moving no mater what”.
Hey Brother I am a hard asset guy. Almost all my assets are in real-estate, oil companies, gold, silver, and numismatic coins.
<< <i>Wake up clad... Clad... Clad, wake up, it's only a dream... >>
Maybe!
Some of it is more like a nightmare, really.
The FED can't repeal natural law no matter how they try. Nature always has the final accounting and doesn't take IOU's. At some point there is a choice between reality and the status quo and I believe it is the FED that is dreaming.
<< <i>
<< <i>Wake up clad... Clad... Clad, wake up, it's only a dream... >>
Maybe!
Some of it is more like a nightmare, really.
The FED can't repeal natural law no matter how they try. Nature always has the final accounting and doesn't take IOU's. At some point there is a choice between reality and the status quo and I believe it is the FED that is dreaming. >>
exactly right! the chickens will come home to roost, and they will cross the road to do it, there's no accounting for taste, and they have a taste for creative accounting!
It's a fine kettle of fish that peter piper picked and a woodchuck chucked to get us in this house of cards and the big bad wolf is at the door! Oh my!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>The earth has all the water it has always had. It doesn't disappear, it is constantly recycled. >>
Hey, just like gold and silver bullion! And like water, some times and some places, worth more, other times and other places worth less.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Play Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 27, 2015 : Production: U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.7 mln barrels per day during the week ending March 27, 2015, 198,000 barrels per day more than the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 89.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 9.7 mln barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging about 4.9 mln barrels per day.
Imports: U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 mln barrels per day last week, down by 44,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.3 mln barrels per day, 0.1% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 709,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 270,000 barrels per day last week.
Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.8 mln barrels from the previous week. At 471.4 mln barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.3 mln barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.3 mln barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.4 mln barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range.
Demand: Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.2 mln barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.1 mln barrels per day, up by 2.7% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged about 9.0 mln barrels per day, up by 1.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 3.8 mln barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 1.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 5.9% compared to the same four-week period last year.
Read more: http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Platinum/Active/TickerSearch/QuickSearch.aspx#ixzz3W4iuKEPs
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The transition to a nation of renters (vs owners) continues.
<< <i>Spending on single-family construction fell 1.4 percent, while multi-family home building rose 4.1 percent.
The transition to a nation of renters (vs owners) continues. >>
Boomers do not want the responsibility if home ownership and millenials are not yet in family formation mode. That doesn't mean a bad economy, just the way it is. The new normal, at least for another 10 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear