<< <i>Interesting that the workforce is 10% larger than in 2000 yet claims for unemployment are at similar levels. Do you really think that 1 out of 4 people is unemployed? >>
You can't claim unemployment forever. The government just forgets about those people (long-term discouraged) and stops counting them. That's why you need the SGS number. And yes, the number is quite believable when you consider the percentage is about twice what it was prior to the recession. Have you seen or heard about Detroit? >>
Yeah, ive been to Detroit, and Buffalo, and Toledo and Rochester. You ever been here
Yet somehow, this damn country just keeps on a tickin. Gosh darnit. Maybe the Chinese can put us out of our misery. >>
Have you noticed that the most pessimistic on these forums (and chat boards in general) are in or have move from the dying rust belt cities or are posting from the boonies in the middle of nowhere'sville?
While the optimists are generally from the sun belt and in other of America's fastest growing cities, with high health and fitness scores?
<< <i>I fear only for those who have no insurance to protect themselves from the danger you tell them is not there. Regardless of what you say, I'll bet you have insurance. >>
Lol, you fear for nobody that's pure bs, otherwise all your money would go to providing and protecting it for them... You should run for some sort of political Office though, you fit right in... >>
I try to keep them informed. Much better than someone who's only purpose on the forum is to troll and regurgitate sarcasm. But, in a pukish way you do entertain. lol.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The danger you speak of is nothing we havent seen before and we've survived. There is no need for hyperbole and exaggeration of statistics. I assure you the stock market will drop 30-50% at some time in the future. So what? It just did that 7 years ago. I assure you real estate will drop 50% in some areas. So what? It did that 6 years ago. I assure you PMs will drop 30-50%. So what? It did that 3 years ago. I assure you a big city will go bankrupt and its population will decline 50%. So what?
All that has happened over the last decade, and yet here we still are, debating the way it was, is, and will be. Just like we did 10 years ago. Aint this a great place?
Bi Bi Bingo!!
And there will be crippling ice storms in the northeast, and hurricanes in the southeast, and floods and mudslides in the midwest, and earthquakes and droughts and wildfires in the west, and businesses will boom and bust, and some people will find jobs and some will not, and some people will crash their cars and some will not, and so on and so forth..
Yikes!
guitarwes, it sounds like you did buy some cows and goats 3 years ago, so count your blessings, for I personally did not buy any at all (just little pieces here and there)
<< <i>The USA has absolutely nothing in common with Zimbabwe. Why it is frequently used as a comparison is beyond comprehension. >>
I guess someone needs to explain it to you: Zimbabwe underwent what most would probably consider to be a worst-case scenario (financially) if it were to happen to the US. And all of the Zimbabwe residents are "fine."
The point is valid that if Zimbabwe is still fine after all that they went through, then we will be too, and taking Cohodk' point further there is no point discussing financial matters and trends any further because no matter what everything will be just fine even in the worst-case scenario. And as such this whole thread is a waste of time.
The residents of Zimbabwe probably exist along a multi- dimensional continuum of success and failure of the individuals, depending on the metrics evaluated and compared
While the "average" Zimbabwean is probably "worse off" than the average American, the fact that there are strata in the demographics is the same, it's the skews of the bell curves that vary, some have very big bulges, others have long tails, some have humps like two-hump camels. Everyone chooses how to spend their time, luckily for us, Americans have a wider range of choices, generally, than Zimbabweans, who cannot move as freely to another location.
Unlike previous business cycles, US dollars are being used to buy far less US production and in fact are being spent on risk (financial products). Financial products do not grow an economy, they grow debt, speculation, risk and they create bubbles. This is a recipe for economic disaster.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The USA has absolutely nothing in common with Zimbabwe. Why it is frequently used as a comparison is beyond comprehension. >>
I guess someone needs to explain it to you: Zimbabwe underwent what most would probably consider to be a worst-case scenario (financially) if it were to happen to the US. And all of the Zimbabwe residents are "fine."
The point is valid that if Zimbabwe is still fine after all that they went through, then we will be too, and taking Cohodk' point further there is no point discussing financial matters and trends any further because no matter what everything will be just fine even in the worst-case scenario. And as such this whole thread is a waste of time. >>
I just want to know why you think the conditions in the USA are just like they were/are in Zimbabwe. Seriously. Is their economic, political, monetary, and societal infrastructure similar to the USA?
Please dont argue with "lots of debt". Yes, without debt was a contributing factor, but not the real reasons. Look at some real factors that created a disfunctional economy.
1. Land reallocation in 2000 and 2001, which redistributed large agricultural tracts, depressed commercial farming output. Output fell 50 percent between 2000 and 2009, led by a decline in the country’s major foreign-exchange cash crop, tobacco, which slid 64 percent in 2008 from 2000.
2. Commercial production of maize,the national staple, dropped 76 percent during the same time.
3. a wave of emigration to neighboring countries, contributing to a population and labor force decline beginning in 2003 (Chart 4). Zimbabwe emigration totaled 761,226, about 6 percent of the population in 2005. This number increased to 1.25 million in 2010, representing 9.9 percent of the population.
If a severe drought wipes out 70% of the crops in the USA, and 38 million people leave for other countries, and the US has no other economic base, (technology, natural resources, tourism, manufacturing, energy), and the infrastructure is destroyed (highways, railroads, shipping ports--like in Weimar), and the government is overthrown, (like in 90% of all hyperinflation events), and there is civil war (common in most hyperinflation events), then I'll agree with you that the US is destined for some rough times. Until I see these conditions, I will vehemently disagree with comparisons to Zimbabwe, Weimar, Argentina, Poland, USSR, ect.
<< <i>I just want to know why you think the conditions in the USA are just like they were/are in Zimbabwe. Seriously. Is their economic, political, monetary, and societal infrastructure similar to the USA? >>
I never said that. Can we agree that what happened in Zimbabwe is about as bad as it can get for a country financially? Can we agree that the people of Zimbabwe are "just fine" as you say? Can we agree that if - theoretically - the US were to get to the same point as Zimbabwe is/was, that American's would be "just fine" also?
Because that is all I am saying. I am making your point.
You keep saying we'll all be just fine no matter what happens.
I am not saying the US is headed that way. I am talking about a theoretical scenario that happened in another country theoretically happening in the US. That is all.
Have you noticed that the most pessimistic on these forums (and chat boards in general) are in or have move from the dying rust belt cities or are posting from the boonies in the middle of nowhere'sville?
While the optimists are generally from the sun belt and in other of America's fastest growing cities, with high health and fitness scores?
Everything is fine. Let's see how California handles their drought, debt, municipal pensions and sanctuary city "phenomenon". Evidently Baleyville hasn't felt a thing yet, but I see tax increases and more than a little bit of angst on the horizon for Baleyville.
And when that happens, how long does Baley intend to stick around and "ride it out"? Chances are, he will be headed for some small out-of-the-way place with pristine streams in the middle of nowhere'sville.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
For years, you have stated that the hyperinflation is coming to the US and that we should look at Zimbabwe and Weimar as examples. Of course a hyperinflationary event in the US would cause difficulties for many, but without a severe disruption to our economy and infrastructure and political system, it aint gonna happen.
I wish I had been to Zimbabwe in 2005 so I could compare it to today, but I was in Poland about 10 years after their hyperinflation and that country was much better off than a few years before hyperinflation. Hyperinflation "cleanses". While this country has some dirty spots, it is far from needing a deep cleansing.
Jmski, CA needs to raise its real estate tax. While of course it wouldnt go over big, almost all could afford it and it would solve many of CA's debt problems. The problem lies in states like NJ or NY where real estate taxes are already high and have declining populations. CA's population is growing, thus demand for real estate grows. And its sunny, people like the sun. NY, NJ, CT do not have that luxury. Watch for an exodus of people to move from the NE to Florida.
"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and he carries his banners openly. But the traitor moves among those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not traitor, he speaks in the accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their garments, and he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of a city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared." - Cicero, 42 B.C.
Of course, the US, and Zimbabwe, will survive in some fashion or another. And we'll undoubtedly do so far into the future, well past global warming, World War III, NGC's buy-out of PCGS, etc.
After all, Baghdad is stlll here despite the Mongols, Rome is still here despite the Huns, and roaches are still here despite the asteroid.
I expect that most folks posting on the Precious Metals forum are pretty far along with regard to their careers and lives, and are in the main successful and reasonably secure. While allowing for the individual private misfortunes and sorrows that define the human condition, most of us are most likely reasonably content, and have little to fear of the immediate future. I expect that more than half of us contentedly live in what we've come to identify as Baileyville.
That doesn't mean, however, that we are indifferent to what may happen to our children and grandchildren.
While we may feel confident regarding our own well-being, and/or may be prepared to confront anything that may befall us personally, and while we may be just as confident about the resilience of the human race, that doesn't mean that were as heroic or philosophic about what may befall our immediate and beloved progeny. I do NOT want my children/grandchildren to be there when the Mongols/Huns swoop through, or when macroeconomic circumstances make it too difficult for them to find the means to provide for themselves and theirs, even if their own off-springs' off-spring will be fine in the end.
I think it is this personal aspect that most acutely feeds worries and anxieties about what we see going on nationally and internationally. And simply because people have always worried, and the human race has survived and even episodically thrived nonetheless, that does not mean that vigilance and concerns regarding what marauders may now lurk over the hill are unwarranted.
Well said dpoole. What you said was what I was saying in my own sarcastic way. To keep saying 'we'll all be fine' dismisses the seriousness of some of the topics discussed here, and discussion of the topics truly is a waste of time, for them anyway, if that's truly what they believe.
<< <i>For years, you have stated that the hyperinflation is coming to the US and that we should look at Zimbabwe and Weimar as examples. >>
Yes, but in my recent statements on the last page or two, that wasn't the discussion. Please try to keep up.
<< <i>Of course a hyperinflationary event in the US would cause difficulties for many, but without a severe disruption to our economy and infrastructure and political system, it aint gonna happen. >>
If you don't see the increase in potential threats that can realistically cause disruptions to our 'economy, infrastructure, and political system,' then you aren't paying attention. You have a lot of surprises coming.
<< <i>I wish I had been to Zimbabwe in 2005 so I could compare it to today, but I was in Poland about 10 years after their hyperinflation and that country was much better off than a few years before hyperinflation. Hyperinflation "cleanses". While this country has some dirty spots, it is far from needing a deep cleansing. >>
And we can agree to disagree on this point. And I still owe a response from earlier where, if I am stating it correctly, you think that the changing demographics of our country will be the reason we will be able to avoid hyperinflation or at least 'save the dollar.' I don't see it. I do agree that hyperinflation will "cleanse" an economy just as letting the TBTF banks fail would have ultimately lead to a better, stronger, banking system and I think the US would be better off today had that been allowed to happen. The US is in a debt and spending spiral that can only get worse without radical political change that is never going to happen. When an entity is in a debt spiral, bankruptcy is the only hope for reorganization and recovery. The alternative is disaster. No amount of demographic change is going to change that for the US. The only question is how long will it take to happen?
<< <i>Jmski, CA needs to raise its real estate tax.. >>
Our problem is our national debt and how we deal with it. It is still growing and very little attention is being paid to it. Until Solutions are adopted everything else is white noise.
One can ponder tax revenue, land, cows, gold, outright redistribution of wealth through stealth confiscation of wealth, Zimbabwe, moving to BFE, or Martians.
The DEBT is the issue. Keep your eyes on the ball, not the three card Monte being played.
We have a saying in the design bidness: "There is never a problem until there is a problem." The saying refers to something like issuing construction documents and contracts for construction that everyone believes will be successful until something isn't. Simple things like constructing a treatment plant on a piece of property that doesn't belong to the Owner because the site designer (Architect or Engineer) failed to accurately verify property boundaries prior to the site design exercise. Maybe the plant is just a couple of feet off when it gets built and nobody notices. All's good until the real owner of the property asks your company/agency to remove the building and remedy the encroachment...then there's a problem.
As long as resources such as food, cash or cash-like entitlements, housing, education, and the litany of "needs" that are now considered "rights" are abundant here then nothing is wrong. As long as everyone remains civil then there is not a problem. As long as Cali can supply 60% of the US food supply then there is not a problem. As long as China and Japan are satisfied with treasury paper instead of cash then there is not a problem. As long as the stock market machine keeps rolling and housing prices are stable or rising, there is no problem. As long as SS remains funded and pensions get paid, there is no problem.
Preventing or at least anticipating problems is a product of good design and planning. It's good to have a plan but it's better to have a successful plan. We are individually responsible for having a plan, hopefully, one that is successful. Individually, we can not prevent structural problems in the system but we can be prepared. I anticipate that having abundant PM's is a good first step in having a successful plan, just like the engineering company having a good insurance policy.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>To keep harping on potential dismisses potential. yes I wrote that right. Understand it.
CA can cut spending and go into a recession or it can raise taxes and keep innovating and growing.
You have very little understanding of demographics.
You will not see hyperinflation in the USA in your lifetime.
You may see some stronger inflation when the assets of the boomer are passed on to their children....in about 20 years. >>
California , like every other state doesn't need to raise taxes or cut spending . They need to cut graft and cronyism . Probably half of the tax they collect goes in someones pocket and disappears never to be seen again
<< <i>CA can cut spending and go into a recession or it can raise taxes and keep innovating and growing. >>
Government spending cuts do not cause recessions. Tax increases do not spur economic growth.
<< <i>You have very little understanding of demographics. >>
I understand them quite well. There are no demographics changes that are going to reverse this increasing trend: But if you still insist that demographics will save the day, then you need to make your case.
<< <i>You will not see hyperinflation in the USA in your lifetime. >>
I remember that thread very well. 6 months after I made it gold was the same price. And now after 5 years gold is only 15% higher. That's less than 3% per year. Gold didn't even keep up with inflation, let alone other assets such as stocks, real estate and even government bonds.
If that's all you got, then I'll stand on my high ground
And what a terrible homes report. Can you believe the rate of construction and permits is all the way back to where it was 6-9 months. Wow. What a disaster. For comparison can you believe silver is back to where it was 7 years ago?
Sorry PC, but you really don't know enough about economics to make vehement statements.
You and I both see the same picture but it appears much larger to you than I. Remember as a kid sled riding down that hill? It seemed so big. Now when you look at that hill you realize it wasn't much of a hill afterall. Your perspective changed because you gained more knowledge and experience.
<< <i>I remember that thread very well. 6 months after I made it gold was the same price. And now after 5 years gold is only 15% higher. That's less than 3% per year. Gold didn't even keep up with inflation, let alone other assets such as stocks, real estate and even government bonds.
If that's all you got, then I'll stand on my high ground >>
Nice spin. You started that thread and gold almost doubled over the next 2 years.
<< <i>And what a terrible homes report. Can you believe the rate of construction and permits is all the way back to where it was 6-9 months. Wow. What a disaster. For comparison can you believe silver is back to where it was 7 years ago? >>
Doesn't exactly sound like the booming housing market you were trying to convince me of a few pages back. That's all I'm saying.
<< <i>Sorry PC, but you really don't know enough about economics to make vehement statements. >>
I could say the same about you.
<< <i>I've just sledded down more hills than you. >>
While you're focused on the small hills you've been down, you are ignoring the big hills nearby that you've not been down. But I'm never going to convince you of this. Most likely by the end of this decade you will learn what I was talking about.
Very true bronco. But since no one is willing to make those changes we need to look elsewhere. I don't want higher taxes, but there are situations where they can be raised without adverse effects on the economy. Cuts to spending would have much more effect on the economy.
I would wholly endorse many of t he ideas presented on these boards but i know none of them will happen.
watch the next few months of reports. Look forward, not backward.
The smallest hills I've been down are much bigger than the biggest you have.
Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative.
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention.
Right about now all we need is for a millenial from the sports card forum to jump in and then we could have three broke Nobel prize winners arguing economic outcomes.
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention. >>
I understand our expectations and predictions are different. Only one of us will be right...
You may see some stronger inflation when the assets of the boomer are passed on to their children....in about 20 years. There is a much bigger picture that you are ignoring with ramifications that will come much sooner. >>
Proof Collection, no fair dredging up 5 year old bad calls by the fiat bulls. Only "they" are allowed to dredge up stuff from years back to rub feces into the gold bulls' faces.
For some reason gold falling off the cliff from $1550 down to the $1200's in April-June 2013 was enough to negate the entire 12 year gold bull market (ie "it never happened" according to fiat bugs....the rise from $252 to $1920 was a mirage....3 down years "effectively" wipes out 11 up years even if prices are still >4X higher). But here's a clear instance of just being so wrong on gold. Gold "only" went $800+ higher (72%) over the next 2 years from Cohodk's $1070ish "top for some time now approaching" call in October 2009. In fact that was the start of a new multi-year acceleration leg and not something corrective. The 100,000 or so charts in his head didn't have a bullish match for that particular gold chart. So it "had" to go down.
That was the 9th year in a row that gold had headed higher....against all odds. And each year following, Cohodk came out with his famous "this is the last year" it happens prediction. Gold went on to 10, 11, even 12 years in a row with a higher year end close. After the $1226 level was breached a second time Cohodk pulled out a rising contracting wedge in gold as it approached a $1300 all time high. That wedge from 2008-2010 was bearish looking. Anyone could see that. And in the majority of cases it would have broken downward. Thing is, gold ignored the "bearish wedge" and "100,000 historical charts" and blew through $1300, on its way to $1577. There are plenty of bad calls in the forum to go around. No need to keep rubbing old calls in the faces of the gold bulls. But, I understand the desire to kick a dying horse for 3, 4, maybe 5 years....as long as that horse can take the abuse. There must be a memo on the Baleyville Community Center bulletin board that requires a "gold post of the week" from the 2009-2011 glory days to ensure no residents ever again fall into the clutches of the gold Medusa. Why are gold bulls punished for the fiat bugs missing the 6X increase in silver (2X for gold) from Oct 2008 to Sept 2011?
As far as hyperinflation of the US dollar? The only requirement is that confidence be lost in the US government. There's no need for mumbo jumbo about what prices might or might not do in the future. Confidence is the name of the game. Lose confidence.....prices will follow. Not saying that will happen in the next decade or two. In my mind a revaluation, repegging, rebasketing, substitution, etc. involving the US dollar is essentially waving the white flag.
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention. >>
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention. >>
Who said I'm not paying attention? >>
It's obvious due to your lack of concern. >>
Don't mistake lack of hyperbole and panic for a total lack of concern. I'd wager that Cohodk owns a place to bug out to if the SHTF.
Evidently Baleyville hasn't felt a thing yet, but I see tax increases and more than a little bit of angst on the horizon for Baleyville. And when that happens, how long does Baley intend to stick around and "ride it out"? Chances are, he will be headed for some small out-of-the-way place with pristine streams in the middle of nowhere'sville.
"From looking at the price action among the precious metals sector and the dollar it looks and feels like these markets are very close to repeating what happened in the year 2000."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well, "concern" is not binary, is it? it occurs along a spectrum of intensity.
Similarly, what the "concerns" are, their nature, also vary, some are direct and personal and immediate, and others are huge and abstract and absolutely beyond any of us individuals' ability to control.
I don't fret about either kind, but do focus my energies on the former
Roadrunner, if you bought gold in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, have you made any money?
I told my clients to sell their Internet stocks in late 1999, many went up another 50%. Then what? You think those client are happy I told them to sell or upset that they "might have" missed a gain?
"From looking at the price action among the precious metals sector and the dollar it looks and feels like these markets are very close to repeating what happened in the year 2000." >>
Eventually, but not yet. The dollar still has strong legs. And remember, in 2000 gold had be dormant for 2 decades. Gold at 1200 and the sp500 at 1500 is not the same relative value as 250 and 1500 respectively.
Let's realize none of us has a crystal ball and all of us have made prognostication mistakes. I value of you guys input and enjoy reading these threads except when it gets ugly. I try to avoid that and hope you do to.
As a side note a took a day trip on the old Chicago Great Western Railway trail and had to chuckle when I ran into this town about 25 miles due west of Rockford, IL.
<< <i>Well, "concern" is not binary, is it? it occurs along a spectrum of intensity.
Similarly, what the "concerns" are, their nature, also vary, some are direct and personal and immediate, and others are huge and abstract and absolutely beyond any of us individuals' ability to control.
I don't fret about either kind, but do focus my energies on the former >>
Concern isn't binary but Cohodk has made it clear that he is not concerned. I'm just going by what he has written here. Ignorance is bliss.
To ignore the current dollar, debt, and derivatives bubble now is the same as ignoring the real estate bubble around 2005. There were plenty in 2005, 2006, and even 2007 who were saying 'this time is different' and 'real estate will never go down.' There were those who got hammered by the bubble collapse and those who cashed in. But yes, even after the housing collapse and 2008 recession we are all fine. And yes, we will 'be fine' after the imminent debt, dollar, and derivatives bubble collapse. To be able to ignore the debt, dollar, and derivatives (DDD) bubble and feign disinterest in the event is to either put yourself in the camp of those who will get hammered or who will watch from the sidelines. I will be in the 'cashing in' camp.
In my personal experience I have experienced five recessions and learned from every one.
We used to use a boiler plate equation for buying land, developing it leasing it and selling it as NNN.
I adopted a similar equation for prospering in a recession. However there is always a minimum of one variable that suprises the heck out of you. I have learned that sometimes it's tough to sleep with a lot of debt. The one constant has been that cash rules at times. When it rules,....YOU BUY.
<< <i>there is always a minimum of one variable that suprises the heck out of you.
I have learned that sometimes it's tough to sleep with a lot of debt.
The one constant has been that cash rules at times. When it rules,....YOU BUY.
Do you think that gold & silver will be important?
How long do you think before it's time to buy land? >>
JM,
I'm clueless. The foundries have no back orders. Gold and silver have been weak for years. Land and bldgs are strong right now. If you buy momentum you buy land. Not for me right now.
<< <i>Have you ever considered that I not only see what you but just a tad bit more? Some do have better vision than others. >>
Based on your posts and your rare use of links or references, you do not.
Imminent? What does that mean? Next week? Tomorrow? Next year? >>
imminent [im-uh-nuh nt] adjective 1. likely to occur at any moment; impending: 2. projecting or leaning forward; overhanging.
<< <i>Gold and silver have been weak for years. Land and bldgs are strong right now. If you buy momentum you buy land. Not for me right now. >>
Good point streeter. The contrarian investor buys what is out of favor, and at the moment, PMs seem to fit bill quite well. I don't know that real estate is that hot and there are probably still a few deals if you look hard enough, but obviously the time to buy RE was 2010.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting that the workforce is 10% larger than in 2000 yet claims for unemployment are at similar levels. Do you really think that 1 out of 4 people is unemployed? >>
You can't claim unemployment forever. The government just forgets about those people (long-term discouraged) and stops counting them. That's why you need the SGS number.
And yes, the number is quite believable when you consider the percentage is about twice what it was prior to the recession. Have you seen or heard about Detroit? >>
Yeah, ive been to Detroit, and Buffalo, and Toledo and Rochester. You ever been here
The boom and bust of towns and cities is very common. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ghost_towns_in_the_United_States
Yet somehow, this damn country just keeps on a tickin. Gosh darnit. Maybe the Chinese can put us out of our misery. >>
Have you noticed that the most pessimistic on these forums (and chat boards in general) are in or have move from the dying rust belt cities or are posting from the boonies in the middle of nowhere'sville?
While the optimists are generally from the sun belt and in other of America's fastest growing cities, with high health and fitness scores?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>I fear only for those who have no insurance to protect themselves from the danger you tell them is not there. Regardless of what you say, I'll bet you have insurance. >>
Lol, you fear for nobody that's pure bs, otherwise all your money would go to providing and protecting it for them...
You should run for some sort of political Office though, you fit right in... >>
I try to keep them informed. Much better than someone who's only purpose on the forum is to troll and regurgitate sarcasm. But, in a pukish way you do entertain. lol.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
All that has happened over the last decade, and yet here we still are, debating the way it was, is, and will be. Just like we did 10 years ago. Aint this a great place?
Bi Bi Bingo!!
And there will be crippling ice storms in the northeast, and hurricanes in the southeast, and floods and mudslides in the midwest, and earthquakes and droughts and wildfires in the west, and businesses will boom and bust, and some people will find jobs and some will not, and some people will crash their cars and some will not, and so on and so forth..
Yikes!
guitarwes, it sounds like you did buy some cows and goats 3 years ago, so count your blessings, for I personally did not buy any at all (just little pieces here and there)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Oh, Zimbabwe is it? In a discussion of the US economy? Hitler, too?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The USA has absolutely nothing in common with Zimbabwe. Why it is frequently used as a comparison is beyond comprehension. >>
I guess someone needs to explain it to you: Zimbabwe underwent what most would probably consider to be a worst-case scenario (financially) if it were to happen to the US. And all of the Zimbabwe residents are "fine."
The point is valid that if Zimbabwe is still fine after all that they went through, then we will be too, and taking Cohodk' point further there is no point discussing financial matters and trends any further because no matter what everything will be just fine even in the worst-case scenario. And as such this whole thread is a waste of time.
While the "average" Zimbabwean is probably "worse off" than the average American, the fact that there are strata in the demographics is the same, it's the skews of the bell curves that vary, some have very big bulges, others have long tails, some have humps like two-hump camels. Everyone chooses how to spend their time, luckily for us, Americans have a wider range of choices, generally, than Zimbabweans, who cannot move as freely to another location.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>The USA has absolutely nothing in common with Zimbabwe. Why it is frequently used as a comparison is beyond comprehension. >>
I guess someone needs to explain it to you: Zimbabwe underwent what most would probably consider to be a worst-case scenario (financially) if it were to happen to the US. And all of the Zimbabwe residents are "fine."
The point is valid that if Zimbabwe is still fine after all that they went through, then we will be too, and taking Cohodk' point further there is no point discussing financial matters and trends any further because no matter what everything will be just fine even in the worst-case scenario. And as such this whole thread is a waste of time. >>
I just want to know why you think the conditions in the USA are just like they were/are in Zimbabwe. Seriously. Is their economic, political, monetary, and societal infrastructure similar to the USA?
Please dont argue with "lots of debt". Yes, without debt was a contributing factor, but not the real reasons. Look at some real factors that created a disfunctional economy.
1. Land reallocation in 2000 and 2001, which
redistributed large agricultural tracts, depressed
commercial farming output. Output fell 50 percent
between 2000 and 2009, led by a decline in the
country’s major foreign-exchange cash crop,
tobacco, which slid 64 percent in 2008 from 2000.
2. Commercial production of maize,the national staple, dropped 76 percent during the
same time.
3. a wave of emigration to neighboring countries,
contributing to a population and labor force
decline beginning in 2003 (Chart 4). Zimbabwe
emigration totaled 761,226, about 6 percent of
the population in 2005. This number increased to
1.25 million in 2010, representing 9.9 percent of
the population.
https://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/annual/2011/annual11b.pdf
If a severe drought wipes out 70% of the crops in the USA, and 38 million people leave for other countries, and the US has no other economic base, (technology, natural resources, tourism, manufacturing, energy), and the infrastructure is destroyed (highways, railroads, shipping ports--like in Weimar), and the government is overthrown, (like in 90% of all hyperinflation events), and there is civil war (common in most hyperinflation events), then I'll agree with you that the US is destined for some rough times. Until I see these conditions, I will vehemently disagree with comparisons to Zimbabwe, Weimar, Argentina, Poland, USSR, ect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I just want to know why you think the conditions in the USA are just like they were/are in Zimbabwe. Seriously. Is their economic, political, monetary, and societal infrastructure similar to the USA?
>>
I never said that.
Can we agree that what happened in Zimbabwe is about as bad as it can get for a country financially?
Can we agree that the people of Zimbabwe are "just fine" as you say?
Can we agree that if - theoretically - the US were to get to the same point as Zimbabwe is/was, that American's would be "just fine" also?
Because that is all I am saying. I am making your point.
You keep saying we'll all be just fine no matter what happens.
I am not saying the US is headed that way. I am talking about a theoretical scenario that happened in another country theoretically happening in the US. That is all.
While the optimists are generally from the sun belt and in other of America's fastest growing cities, with high health and fitness scores?
Everything is fine. Let's see how California handles their drought, debt, municipal pensions and sanctuary city "phenomenon". Evidently Baleyville hasn't felt a thing yet, but I see tax increases and more than a little bit of angst on the horizon for Baleyville.
And when that happens, how long does Baley intend to stick around and "ride it out"? Chances are, he will be headed for some small out-of-the-way place with pristine streams in the middle of nowhere'sville.
I knew it would happen.
I wish I had been to Zimbabwe in 2005 so I could compare it to today, but I was in Poland about 10 years after their hyperinflation and that country was much better off than a few years before hyperinflation. Hyperinflation "cleanses". While this country has some dirty spots, it is far from needing a deep cleansing.
Jmski, CA needs to raise its real estate tax. While of course it wouldnt go over big, almost all could afford it and it would solve many of CA's debt problems. The problem lies in states like NJ or NY where real estate taxes are already high and have declining populations. CA's population is growing, thus demand for real estate grows. And its sunny, people like the sun. NY, NJ, CT do not have that luxury. Watch for an exodus of people to move from the NE to Florida.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Of course, the US, and Zimbabwe, will survive in some fashion or another. And we'll undoubtedly do so far into the future, well past global warming, World War III, NGC's buy-out of PCGS, etc.
After all, Baghdad is stlll here despite the Mongols, Rome is still here despite the Huns, and roaches are still here despite the asteroid.
I expect that most folks posting on the Precious Metals forum are pretty far along with regard to their careers and lives, and are in the main successful and reasonably secure. While allowing for the individual private misfortunes and sorrows that define the human condition, most of us are most likely reasonably content, and have little to fear of the immediate future. I expect that more than half of us contentedly live in what we've come to identify as Baileyville.
That doesn't mean, however, that we are indifferent to what may happen to our children and grandchildren.
While we may feel confident regarding our own well-being, and/or may be prepared to confront anything that may befall us personally, and while we may be just as confident about the resilience of the human race, that doesn't mean that were as heroic or philosophic about what may befall our immediate and beloved progeny. I do NOT want my children/grandchildren to be there when the Mongols/Huns swoop through, or when macroeconomic circumstances make it too difficult for them to find the means to provide for themselves and theirs, even if their own off-springs' off-spring will be fine in the end.
I think it is this personal aspect that most acutely feeds worries and anxieties about what we see going on nationally and internationally. And simply because people have always worried, and the human race has survived and even episodically thrived nonetheless, that does not mean that vigilance and concerns regarding what marauders may now lurk over the hill are unwarranted.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>For years, you have stated that the hyperinflation is coming to the US and that we should look at Zimbabwe and Weimar as examples. >>
Yes, but in my recent statements on the last page or two, that wasn't the discussion. Please try to keep up.
<< <i>Of course a hyperinflationary event in the US would cause difficulties for many, but without a severe disruption to our economy and infrastructure and political system, it aint gonna happen. >>
If you don't see the increase in potential threats that can realistically cause disruptions to our 'economy, infrastructure, and political system,' then you aren't paying attention. You have a lot of surprises coming.
<< <i>I wish I had been to Zimbabwe in 2005 so I could compare it to today, but I was in Poland about 10 years after their hyperinflation and that country was much better off than a few years before hyperinflation. Hyperinflation "cleanses". While this country has some dirty spots, it is far from needing a deep cleansing. >>
And we can agree to disagree on this point. And I still owe a response from earlier where, if I am stating it correctly, you think that the changing demographics of our country will be the reason we will be able to avoid hyperinflation or at least 'save the dollar.' I don't see it. I do agree that hyperinflation will "cleanse" an economy just as letting the TBTF banks fail would have ultimately lead to a better, stronger, banking system and I think the US would be better off today had that been allowed to happen. The US is in a debt and spending spiral that can only get worse without radical political change that is never going to happen. When an entity is in a debt spiral, bankruptcy is the only hope for reorganization and recovery. The alternative is disaster. No amount of demographic change is going to change that for the US. The only question is how long will it take to happen?
<< <i>Jmski, CA needs to raise its real estate tax.. >>
No, they need to cut spending and waste.
CA can cut spending and go into a recession or it can raise taxes and keep innovating and growing.
You have very little understanding of demographics.
You will not see hyperinflation in the USA in your lifetime.
You may see some stronger inflation when the assets of the boomer are passed on to their children....in about 20 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Our problem is our national debt and how we deal with it. It is still growing and very little attention is being paid to it. Until
Solutions are adopted everything else is white noise.
One can ponder tax revenue, land, cows, gold, outright redistribution of wealth through stealth confiscation of wealth, Zimbabwe, moving to BFE, or Martians.
The DEBT is the issue. Keep your eyes on the ball, not the three card Monte being played.
<< <i>You have a lot of surprises coming. >>
lol, the biggest surprise is there will be no surprise...
As long as resources such as food, cash or cash-like entitlements, housing, education, and the litany of "needs" that are now considered "rights" are abundant here then nothing is wrong. As long as everyone remains civil then there is not a problem. As long as Cali can supply 60% of the US food supply then there is not a problem. As long as China and Japan are satisfied with treasury paper instead of cash then there is not a problem. As long as the stock market machine keeps rolling and housing prices are stable or rising, there is no problem. As long as SS remains funded and pensions get paid, there is no problem.
Preventing or at least anticipating problems is a product of good design and planning. It's good to have a plan but it's better to have a successful plan. We are individually responsible for having a plan, hopefully, one that is successful. Individually, we can not prevent structural problems in the system but we can be prepared. I anticipate that having abundant PM's is a good first step in having a successful plan, just like the engineering company having a good insurance policy.
"Hey buddy, can you spare a couple of ASE's?"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>To keep harping on potential dismisses potential. yes I wrote that right. Understand it.
CA can cut spending and go into a recession or it can raise taxes and keep innovating and growing.
You have very little understanding of demographics.
You will not see hyperinflation in the USA in your lifetime.
You may see some stronger inflation when the assets of the boomer are passed on to their children....in about 20 years. >>
California , like every other state doesn't need to raise taxes or cut spending . They need to cut graft and cronyism . Probably half of the tax they collect goes in someones pocket and disappears never to be seen again
<< <i>CA can cut spending and go into a recession or it can raise taxes and keep innovating and growing. >>
Government spending cuts do not cause recessions. Tax increases do not spur economic growth.
<< <i>You have very little understanding of demographics. >>
I understand them quite well. There are no demographics changes that are going to reverse this increasing trend:
But if you still insist that demographics will save the day, then you need to make your case.
<< <i>You will not see hyperinflation in the USA in your lifetime. >>
I'm glad you got your crystal ball fixed. Remember this thread?
I believe gold has reached it highs for some time
I understand our expectations and predictions are different. Only one of us will be right...
<< <i>You may see some stronger inflation when the assets of the boomer are passed on to their children....in about 20 years. >>
There is a much bigger picture that you are ignoring with ramifications that will come much sooner.
If that's all you got, then I'll stand on my high ground
And what a terrible homes report. Can you believe the rate of construction and permits is all the way back to where it was 6-9 months. Wow. What a disaster. For comparison can you believe silver is back to where it was 7 years ago?
Sorry PC, but you really don't know enough about economics to make vehement statements.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I've just sledded down more hills than you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I remember that thread very well. 6 months after I made it gold was the same price. And now after 5 years gold is only 15% higher. That's less than 3% per year. Gold didn't even keep up with inflation, let alone other assets such as stocks, real estate and even government bonds.
If that's all you got, then I'll stand on my high ground
Nice spin. You started that thread and gold almost doubled over the next 2 years.
<< <i>And what a terrible homes report. Can you believe the rate of construction and permits is all the way back to where it was 6-9 months. Wow. What a disaster. For comparison can you believe silver is back to where it was 7 years ago? >>
Doesn't exactly sound like the booming housing market you were trying to convince me of a few pages back. That's all I'm saying.
<< <i>Sorry PC, but you really don't know enough about economics to make vehement statements. >>
I could say the same about you.
<< <i>I've just sledded down more hills than you. >>
While you're focused on the small hills you've been down, you are ignoring the big hills nearby that you've not been down. But I'm never going to convince you of this. Most likely by the end of this decade you will learn what I was talking about.
I would wholly endorse many of t he ideas presented on these boards but i know none of them will happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The smallest hills I've been down are much bigger than the biggest you have.
Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Most likely by the end of this decade you will learn what I was talking about. >>
the more likely will be, before then you will realize you had it all wrong...
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention.
<< <i>
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention. >>
Who said I'm not paying attention?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>.....You will not see hyperinflation in the USA in your lifetime.
I'm glad you got your crystal ball fixed. Remember this thread?
I believe gold has reached it highs for some time
I understand our expectations and predictions are different. Only one of us will be right...
You may see some stronger inflation when the assets of the boomer are passed on to their children....in about 20 years.
There is a much bigger picture that you are ignoring with ramifications that will come much sooner. >>
Proof Collection, no fair dredging up 5 year old bad calls by the fiat bulls. Only "they" are allowed to dredge up stuff from years back to rub feces into the gold bulls' faces.
For some reason gold falling off the cliff from $1550 down to the $1200's in April-June 2013 was enough to negate the entire 12 year gold bull market (ie "it never happened" according to fiat bugs....the rise from $252 to $1920 was a mirage....3 down years "effectively" wipes out 11 up years even if prices are still >4X higher). But here's a clear instance of just being so wrong on gold. Gold "only" went $800+ higher (72%) over the next 2 years from Cohodk's $1070ish "top for some time now approaching" call in October 2009. In fact that was the start of a new multi-year acceleration leg and not something corrective. The 100,000 or so charts in his head didn't have a bullish match for that particular gold chart. So it "had" to go down.
That was the 9th year in a row that gold had headed higher....against all odds. And each year following, Cohodk came out with his famous "this is the last year" it happens prediction. Gold went on to 10, 11, even 12 years in a row with a higher year end close. After the $1226 level was breached a second time Cohodk pulled out a rising contracting wedge in gold as it approached a $1300 all time high. That wedge from 2008-2010 was bearish looking. Anyone could see that. And in the majority of cases it would have broken downward. Thing is, gold ignored the "bearish wedge" and "100,000 historical charts" and blew through $1300, on its way to $1577. There are plenty of bad calls in the forum to go around. No need to keep rubbing old calls in the faces of the gold bulls. But, I understand the desire to kick a dying horse for 3, 4, maybe 5 years....as long as that horse can take the abuse. There must be a memo on the Baleyville Community Center bulletin board that requires a "gold post of the week" from the 2009-2011 glory days to ensure no residents ever again fall into the clutches of the gold Medusa. Why are gold bulls punished for the fiat bugs missing the 6X increase in silver (2X for gold) from Oct 2008 to Sept 2011?
As far as hyperinflation of the US dollar? The only requirement is that confidence be lost in the US government. There's no need for mumbo jumbo about what prices might or might not do in the future. Confidence is the name of the game. Lose confidence.....prices will follow. Not saying that will happen in the next decade or two. In my mind a revaluation, repegging, rebasketing, substitution, etc. involving the US dollar is essentially waving the white flag.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention. >>
Who said I'm not paying attention? >>
It's obvious due to your lack of concern.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Maybe in 5 years I'll change my tune just lIke I have in buying silver at 15 instead of 30. Tell me how I have lost? Believe me, I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. I do not blow it out of proportion. Keep things relative. >>
If you aren't concerned you aren't paying attention. >>
Who said I'm not paying attention? >>
It's obvious due to your lack of concern. >>
Don't mistake lack of hyperbole and panic for a total lack of concern. I'd wager that Cohodk owns a place to bug out to if the SHTF.
Evidently Baleyville hasn't felt a thing yet, but I see tax increases and more than a little bit of angst on the horizon for Baleyville. And when that happens, how long does Baley intend to stick around and "ride it out"? Chances are, he will be headed for some small out-of-the-way place with pristine streams in the middle of nowhere'sville.
Baley does too.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"From looking at the price action among the precious metals sector and the dollar it looks and feels like these markets are very close to repeating what happened in the year 2000."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Don't mistake lack of hyperbole and panic for a total lack of concern. I'd wager that Cohodk owns a place to bug out to if the SHTF. >>
No mistake, it comes from today's post from Cohodk at 7:05AM:
I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now.
Similarly, what the "concerns" are, their nature, also vary, some are direct and personal and immediate,
and others are huge and abstract and absolutely beyond any of us individuals' ability to control.
I don't fret about either kind, but do focus my energies on the former
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Don't mistake lack of hyperbole and panic for a total lack of concern. I'd wager that Cohodk owns a place to bug out to if the SHTF. >>
No mistake, it comes from today's post from Cohodk at 7:05AM:
I see the same as you but it isn't a concern to me now. >>
Concern is relative. Right now I'm more concerned about what's for dinner than a supposed bust in real estate or quadrillions in derivatives.
This country has 200 years of proving naysayers wrong. I am not concerned that track record is in imminent danger.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I told my clients to sell their Internet stocks in late 1999, many went up another 50%. Then what? You think those client are happy I told them to sell or upset that they "might have" missed a gain?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And you you wish to make it personal, shall we quote all the threads where you stated the dollar index was going to 50?
At least time has gifted you with wisdom and you have curtailed the conspiracy and manipulation rhetoric of years past.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Gold Price: Year 2000 All Over Again – How Will You Play It This Time?
"From looking at the price action among the precious metals sector and the dollar it looks and feels like these markets are very close to repeating what happened in the year 2000." >>
Eventually, but not yet. The dollar still has strong legs. And remember, in 2000 gold had be dormant for 2 decades. Gold at 1200 and the sp500 at 1500 is not the same relative value as 250 and 1500 respectively.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As a side note a took a day trip on the old Chicago Great Western Railway trail and had to chuckle when I ran into this town about 25 miles due west of Rockford, IL.
<< <i>Well, "concern" is not binary, is it? it occurs along a spectrum of intensity.
Similarly, what the "concerns" are, their nature, also vary, some are direct and personal and immediate,
and others are huge and abstract and absolutely beyond any of us individuals' ability to control.
I don't fret about either kind, but do focus my energies on the former
Concern isn't binary but Cohodk has made it clear that he is not concerned. I'm just going by what he has written here. Ignorance is bliss.
To ignore the current dollar, debt, and derivatives bubble now is the same as ignoring the real estate bubble around 2005. There were plenty in 2005, 2006, and even 2007 who were saying 'this time is different' and 'real estate will never go down.' There were those who got hammered by the bubble collapse and those who cashed in. But yes, even after the housing collapse and 2008 recession we are all fine. And yes, we will 'be fine' after the imminent debt, dollar, and derivatives bubble collapse. To be able to ignore the debt, dollar, and derivatives (DDD) bubble and feign disinterest in the event is to either put yourself in the camp of those who will get hammered or who will watch from the sidelines. I will be in the 'cashing in' camp.
We used to use a boiler plate equation for buying land, developing it leasing it and selling it as NNN.
I adopted a similar equation for prospering in a recession. However there is always a minimum of one variable that suprises the heck out of you. I have learned that sometimes it's tough to sleep with a lot of debt.
The one constant has been that cash rules at times. When it rules,....YOU BUY.
EOS
Not bad, but up and to the left - and you've just about got it.
I knew it would happen.
I have learned that sometimes it's tough to sleep with a lot of debt.
The one constant has been that cash rules at times. When it rules,....YOU BUY.
Do you think that gold & silver will be important?
How long do you think before it's time to buy land?
I knew it would happen.
Imminent? What does that mean? Next week? Tomorrow? Next year?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>there is always a minimum of one variable that suprises the heck out of you.
I have learned that sometimes it's tough to sleep with a lot of debt.
The one constant has been that cash rules at times. When it rules,....YOU BUY.
Do you think that gold & silver will be important?
How long do you think before it's time to buy land? >>
JM,
I'm clueless. The foundries have no back orders.
Gold and silver have been weak for years. Land and bldgs are strong right now. If you buy momentum you buy land. Not for me right now.
<< <i>Have you ever considered that I not only see what you but just a tad bit more? Some do have better vision than others. >>
Based on your posts and your rare use of links or references, you do not.
Imminent? What does that mean? Next week? Tomorrow? Next year? >>
imminent [im-uh-nuh nt]
adjective
1. likely to occur at any moment; impending:
2. projecting or leaning forward; overhanging.
<< <i>Gold and silver have been weak for years. Land and bldgs are strong right now. If you buy momentum you buy land. Not for me right now. >>
Good point streeter. The contrarian investor buys what is out of favor, and at the moment, PMs seem to fit bill quite well. I don't know that real estate is that hot and there are probably still a few deals if you look hard enough, but obviously the time to buy RE was 2010.