The value on anything unopened from mid to late 70s has skyrocketed over last 2 years. I bought a 75 mini cello box 18 months ago for $1,800. Now they're commanding 3K or more. I have two BBCE shrinkwrapped 75 mini wax boxes and was going to bust one on a rainy day but now as Nick indicated, it's really not worth it, as the correlation between the box and what may lie inside is an even greater gamble with even worse odds. I do have the equivalent of about 2 boxes of graded mini wax packs also and have watched those climb in value, too. The unopened market is on a bull run with no end in sight.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Also, just these back from PSA after only a week of being received. Happy with turnaround. These cards were pack fresh cards I had set aside as I am ripping much less mini wax these days, so grade average was a bit lower than usual, but I needed a number of these for my set, and got a couple tough 8s, including Garvey #140 and Stanley #503. The Borgmann, Allen and Davis cards were a disappointment, as they were really nice and not short by naked eye at least.
18 1 21798958 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 279 MILT MAY Card 19 1 21798959 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 255 DWIGHT EVANS Card 20 1 21798960 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 400 DICK ALLEN Card 21 1 21798961 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 127 GLENN BORGMANN Card 22 1 21798962 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 362 STEVE HARGAN Card 23 1 21798963 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 15 JOSE CARDENAL Card 24 1 21798964 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 615 ROOKIE PITCHERS Card 25 1 21798965 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 560 TONY PEREZ Card 26 1 21798966 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 90 RUSTY STAUB Card 27 1 21798967 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 363 CARMEN FANZONE Card 28 1 21798968 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 498 AL DOWNING Card 29 1 21798969 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 570 JIM WYNN Card 30 1 21798970 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 475 DARRELL EVANS Card 31 1 21798971 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 277 FRANK TAVERAS Card 32 1 21798972 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 347 MIKE CALDWELL Card 33 1 21798973 N8: MISCUT 1975 TOPPS MINI 235 JACK BILLINGHAM Card 34 1 21798974 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 510 VIDA BLUE Card 35 1 21798975 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 112 LARRY HARDY Card 36 1 21798976 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 263 JIM PERRY Card 37 1 21798977 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 274 VICENTE ROMO Card 38 1 21798978 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 140 STEVE GARVEY Card 39 1 21798979 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 517 CHECKLIST 397-528 Card 40 1 21798980 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 448 FRANK DUFFY Card 41 1 21798981 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 591 GLENN ABBOTT Card 42 1 21798982 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 586 TIM McCARVER Card 43 1 21798983 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 564 TOMMY DAVIS Card 44 1 21798984 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 103 RICK MILLER Card 44 2 21798985 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 103 RICK MILLER Card 45 1 21798986 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 16 FRANK TANANA Card 46 1 21798987 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 503 FRED STANLEY Card 47 1 21798988 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 178 CESAR TOVAR Card 48 1 21798989 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 325 TONY OLIVA Card 49 1 21798990 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 340 PAUL SPLITTORFF Card
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Congrats on a nice sub! Great job on the Fred Stanley. The other one that stands out is the Garvey, 140. That's one tough card to find centered and is a sleeper within the set in 8 or higher. A couple of years ago, one showed up on eBay in the wee hours of the morning here on the East Coast with a BIN of $40 or something close to that. I hit the BIN with lightning speed - it's one of my favorite cards in my registry set.
Okay if anyone has a full-sized Don Gullet #65 in an 8, I'll pay your price! I've been waiting years, and some nimble thief stole an 8.5 BIN for only 69.99! Damn that one hurt. I only need two of them and I have 8 sets in all full-sized 8 and above. IMO the red/yellows are slowly taking the crown of most difficult color combo from the green/yellow...my suspicion is because so many more red/yellows were graded significantly short.
I've always felt the Red/Yellow's were more difficult than the Green/Yellow's. They are both so much more difficult than all the other color combo's. Prices for the Red/Yellow and Green/Yellow should sell (as they normally do) for a much higher price. Hard to believe someone set a BIN price of just $69.99 on a full size PSA 8.5 example of #65 in todays market?
How much would you pay for a full size PSA 9 no qualifier Henry? Send me a PM and we can discuss further
I have been thinking about the recent surge in prices for unopened 1970s material. Most importantly IMO, this is NOT a bubble because the supply side is so miniscule. However, more interestingly, I wonder how and when higher prices for unopened will be reflected generally in the prices of high end single cards. I am working through some numbers and I'll let you all know what I come up with. I believe generally that there is a severe "lag" effect because of the intensely slow circulation rate of high end cards. For example, I just snagged a 1971 Ernie Banks psa9 population 3 for 3.8K. I honestly feel that I got a HUGE bargain on this particular card. There was no VCP on the card because it has never exchanged hands publically. If I look across most of the high end cards (usually PSA 10s) across the decade there is a general ceiling effect of around 3-4K for the most sought after highest graded star cards. For example, I also won the 1973 #1 HR King card in a psa10 (pop 1) for under 4K. The question is when will the ceiling be broken for these types of cards in this decade and will the increase be incremental or dramatic? In regards to the minis, I have long held that the 9s for this year are significantly more undervalued than most from this decade because the shorties have been circulating and undercutting the average VCP price. This has made the VCP prices much more unreliable for this year than most. I have always bid a floor price for 9s when I see nice ones come up whether I need them or not...I have yet to reach a point where the other collectors routinely beat my price. This has happened much more often (to my pain) on the 10s! But it is getting close...my max bid on the most recent beautiful B. Robinson psa9 was only around 15 dollars more than the underbid (very sorry Jim ) So what is the implication of the 39K waxbox case? One, I don't see mini waxboxes ever selling for under 2K in the future because there is plenty of demand, the demand is broader than historical markets and the supply is basically now set and shrinking by the year. As a novelty can I see the boxes selling for 3K in 3-5 years? Most definitely, which would bring the value of the recent case to around 50K! Can I see deep pockets paying 50K for one of the last remaining mini Conlon cases? Why not? Now I have to figure out technically how this will be reflected in PSA graded singles. Very interesting to develop this theory, any initial brainstorming ideas?
Anyone have a raw Brett mini to trade for a yount mini?
Please let me know Fred
Fred
collecting RAW Topps baseball cards 1952 Highs to 1972. looking for collector grade (somewhere between psa 4-7 condition). let me know what you have, I'll take it, I want to finish sets, I must have something you can use for trade.
looking for Topps 71-72 hi's-62-53-54-55-59, I have these sets started
<< <i>I have been thinking about the recent surge in prices for unopened 1970s material. Most importantly IMO, this is NOT a bubble because the supply side is so miniscule. However, more interestingly, I wonder how and when higher prices for unopened will be reflected generally in the prices of high end single cards. I am working through some numbers and I'll let you all know what I come up with. I believe generally that there is a severe "lag" effect because of the intensely slow circulation rate of high end cards. For example, I just snagged a 1971 Ernie Banks psa9 population 3 for 3.8K. I honestly feel that I got a HUGE bargain on this particular card. There was no VCP on the card because it has never exchanged hands publically. If I look across most of the high end cards (usually PSA 10s) across the decade there is a general ceiling effect of around 3-4K for the most sought after highest graded star cards. For example, I also won the 1973 #1 HR King card in a psa10 (pop 1) for under 4K. The question is when will the ceiling be broken for these types of cards in this decade and will the increase be incremental or dramatic? In regards to the minis, I have long held that the 9s for this year are significantly more undervalued than most from this decade because the shorties have been circulating and undercutting the average VCP price. This has made the VCP prices much more unreliable for this year than most. I have always bid a floor price for 9s when I see nice ones come up whether I need them or not...I have yet to reach a point where the other collectors routinely beat my price. This has happened much more often (to my pain) on the 10s! But it is getting close...my max bid on the most recent beautiful B. Robinson psa9 was only around 15 dollars more than the underbid (very sorry Jim ) So what is the implication of the 39K waxbox case? One, I don't see mini waxboxes ever selling for under 2K in the future because there is plenty of demand, the demand is broader than historical markets and the supply is basically now set and shrinking by the year. As a novelty can I see the boxes selling for 3K in 3-5 years? Most definitely, which would bring the value of the recent case to around 50K! Can I see deep pockets paying 50K for one of the last remaining mini Conlon cases? Why not? Now I have to figure out technically how this will be reflected in PSA graded singles. Very interesting to develop this theory, any initial brainstorming ideas? >>
Those are interesting projections, Henry. I've been collecting vintage unopened product for about 20 yaers now, and what I'm witnessing at present in this market seems more to me of speculative nature of the unopened product itself, not the sum of its parts. IOW, I would not necessarily expect a correlation between the values of graded cards and unopened prices. There is also a fundamental difference between the two sides that should be noted, and that is that the population of high grade cards can only become more plentiful while the number of sealed vintage cases and boxes can only decrease in time. We are already witnessing a disconnect in the value of late 70s cello boxes and the value of the cards inside those boxes, the vast majority of which are not even worth the cost of grading unless they grade Gem Mint 10. I don't expect that the two sides to reconcile in the future~quite the opposite, in fact, in that more and more collectors will be willing to lay out big bucks for sealed cases and boxes with no thought to the sum of its parts. Of course, the idea of a PSA 9 or 10 key rookie or HOFer will make packs from that year very desirable, but the value of unopened is not and hasn't been tied to graded card values for most issues in the 70s at least for quite a while now.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Good points Tim, But I do believe that there is a "lagged" significant correlation between structural adjustment of unopened and subsequent price structure of PSA graded cards. It would take me months to set up the data and run the proper statistical analysis but my intuition says it is there. The lag goes this way...
1. Unopened skyrockets in value with no responding flood of hoarded stash, therefore a new floor is reached. 2. First lag will be the primary rookies or key cards (we have seen this with the price adjustments for cards such as 1973 Schmidt at 2K, 1975 Brett at 1.5-2K, among others) 3. Second lag will be the "white whale" low population commons (this has been happening sporatically in the 1970s with huge hammer prices throughout the years. For example, look at 1976 which is a sleepy relatively unpopular set. Recent prices for low pops such as Briggs, Torres and Oliva have been staggering> 4. Third lag will be the general stars and relatively popular cards. 5. Final lag (which may take 5 years) is a readjustment of common psa 8 and psa 9 prices.
The psychology of the lag effect is that the informed collecting community realizes that there is a dwindling supply of pristine raw cards which fuels high grade population growth. They therefore surmise that pop growth will begin to slow dramatically overtime.
The single greatest moderator, however, is the number of active collectors which tends to wax and wane with unpredictable cycles.
<< <i>Good points Tim, But I do believe that there is a "lagged" significant correlation between structural adjustment of unopened and subsequent price structure of PSA graded cards. It would take me months to set up the data and run the proper statistical analysis but my intuition says it is there. The lag goes this way...
1. Unopened skyrockets in value with no responding flood of hoarded stash, therefore a new floor is reached. 2. First lag will be the primary rookies or key cards (we have seen this with the price adjustments for cards such as 1973 Schmidt at 2K, 1975 Brett at 1.5-2K, among others) 3. Second lag will be the "white whale" low population commons (this has been happening sporatically in the 1970s with huge hammer prices throughout the years. For example, look at 1976 which is a sleepy relatively unpopular set. Recent prices for low pops such as Briggs, Torres and Oliva have been staggering> 4. Third lag will be the general stars and relatively popular cards. 5. Final lag (which may take 5 years) is a readjustment of common psa 8 and psa 9 prices.
The psychology of the lag effect is that the informed collecting community realizes that there is a dwindling supply of pristine raw cards which fuels high grade population growth. They therefore surmise that pop growth will begin to slow dramatically overtime.
The single greatest moderator, however, is the number of active collectors which tends to wax and wane with unpredictable cycles. >>
I'm not sure, though, that you can tie in the rise in graded card values with the value of unopened product from this era, as the vast majority of people buying vintage unopened, pre-1980 at least, do so with absolutely no intention of opening the packs. In that sense, I would isolate the unopened market as a separate entity from the market for graded cards, which are enjoying a nice rise in value, as well, for their own reasons, some of which you stated, but I would fundamentally disagree that the appreciation of graded card values is directly linked or a consequence of the maket value for unopened product. I do hope you are correct in your assessment of graded card values on the whole going forward, however!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Henry, I'm not an economist, but here is what I think you're saying regarding the lag effect.
Right after the Conolon collection was auctioned off, BBCE started offering Mini wax packs for $25 apiece. They had been around $35 a pack. At the time, high pop PSA 9's were going for around $15 apiece, so at $25 a wax pack, I figured I couldn't lose by buying and opening a wax pack. So that's what I did, and so did alot of other folks. All of sudden, I'd go to the local and regional card shows, and find a wealth of high grade, pack fresh raw mini commons; I would ask the dealer where they came from, and invariably the response was "I just bought these off a guy who opened a box, picked out the stars to grade, and sold off the rest to me." Looking back now, I'm certain those boxes came out of the Conolon sale. Well, I was buying those "discarded" common Mini's for my RAW set by the dozens every month - they were in abundance. Right around that time, the prices of PSA 8 commons dropped - I was seeing these graded commons on eBay for 2.99 apiece, including shipping. And one member in old Mini thread was literally giving away PSA 8 commons. So, with the low prices of graded commons and the wealth of raw commons out there, I decided to start a graded set, and so did others. Well, I'm not finding those raw commons in abundance any more at card shows. The few high grade commons I am finding and buying up now, aren't worth grading (yet) because I can't sell them for more than the cost of the raw cards plus the grading fee. That part of the "lag" is still out there - in other words, there is enough supply of graded 8's and 9's out there, generally speaking, to meet the present demand. Prices stay low. The price lag remains. If new registry collectors come aboard, and that is 1 of 2 of the keys to all this, that new demand will buy up the present supply of graded that's out there now, and prices should gradually creep up. The 2nd key part, and it's already in place, is that there appears to me to be no new supply coming from wax, because it's not cost-effective to rip for graded cards anymore.
So, Tim, in a nutshell, I think the link between the wax price and the graded price is indirect in that the high price of the wax has the effect of suppressing the high graded supply. We now need the new demand to show up as the second part of the puzzle to drive up the price of the existing supply of higher graded Mini's. It seems to me that's the time lag we're experiencing now.
<< <i>It is easier than all that and Tim, you are the one that can run with my point:
Simple question: What is the relationship between unopened and graded for the 60s today and what was it ten years ago? >>
The 60s is a good example of what I was getting at above--unopened product from that decade is virtually non-existent at this point and prices have risen to the point where it would be financial suicide to consider opening any packs in hopes of recouping your investment or even breaking even. Ten years ago that was not necessarily the case.
For minis, we are already approaching that point where the value of the unopened product har far outpaced value of graded catds with some exceptions. Will a pop 35 psa 9 ever double in pruce? That remains to be seen. Will a formerly super low pop 9 like #459 AL Championships ever command $300 again?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Indy, Thanks and indeed you are describing the frontline market forces linking PSA singles to unopened prices. Tim, You bring up a very important counter to my lag theory. The ability to rescale what was once thought to be a subjective "low pop" to a new definition of "low pop." However, we can integrate Indy's story with yours. Your story about the price spike in unopened is really a supply side story...the market is realizing how few boxes/cases are actually out there. Indy is telling a demand side story. There are plenty of solid raw cards but no demand that would warrant sending them in to PSA (why pay 6 dollars to grade a high pop 8 that would command 4 dollars on ebay). My point is that the supply side argument that leads to a jump in prices paid in unopened can only be deemed rational if it is eventually justified by subsequent rising prices in high end graded cards from the same set. There must be a correlation (not saying a 1 for 1 relationship) between the two. The other factor, of course, is the unopened collectible market itself. I am certain that I can create a relatively accurate formula that would be able to predict this relationship. This is after 6 years of buying both unopened and graded for all 10 years in the 1970s. I really believe that there is a rational market forming after the 1990s Griffey Jr./Steriod supply debacle.
I would like to see that data Henry, it would be interesting indeed. I do think that unopened prices are bound to at least level off at some point as unlikely as that now seems. One thing is for certain: the unopened market is a sector of the hobby that has outpaced any other over the past 18-24 months. I suspect that there are a lot of speculators at this point, maybe almost as many as actual unopened collectors who have been buying product for past decade or more.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I purchased a a really nice collection a couple years back which I'm still going through and pulling out nice examples to submit. I've subbed probably 50 minis with some good success. This is the first one I've ever received back in this type of holder. Has this ever happened to you guys? Is there are reason they'd holder it like this? Any input would be greatly appreciated! (I hate the way it looks) Thanks in advance!
Yes, I have/had a few like that. The issue was either the card was too long (or wide) to fit in the standard holder or the card was trapezoidal/not square cut so that it didn't fit within the inner brackets of the standard holder.
BTW, I forgot to mention that looking at the Joshua photo you posted, the right edge from bottom to top appears to flare outward, such that it probably didn't fit the standard holder (too wide at the top of the card). Just a guess.
Those are fairly common on the taller (pink/yellow and tan/blue) cards out of the pack.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
OK my 75 mini story: Growing up in New Jersey and being born in 1966 I never collected this set, but a buddy of mine had an uncut sheet (turned out to be 75 mini), that I thought was cool…cost me $5. I didn’t even know a mini version of cards existed back in 1979 when I bought it, but it looked cool and I thought I would put it on the wall. Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know….I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch” against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been.
This is an awesome thread, guys! The information that I have gotten from this is wonderful. I collected these as a kid when I spent a month in Michigan with my cousin. We would do odd jobs and spend our earning on cards. My brother and I are currently putting together a PSA 8+ set (currently #25, almost there). Some of you have stated on your posts that you have opened many boxes and even cases of these. I was wondering if any of you have come across any blank backs. I sold most of my collection of minis in the mid to late 80's when I set up at shows during high school and college. They were percieved to be much scarcer than the regulars. The blank backs that I had, maybe 2 dozen, I put a premium on and sold a few of them, including a Yount that was O/C top to bottom for 200. Anyway, I still have a few of them and was wondering: (1) if there is any value to them and (2) their relative scarcity. Any input is appreciated and keep up the interesting posts.
<< <i>OK my 75 mini story: Growing up in New Jersey and being born in 1966 I never collected this set, but a buddy of mine had an uncut sheet (turned out to be 75 mini), that I thought was cool…cost me $5. I didn’t even know a mini version of cards existed back in 1979 when I bought it, but it looked cool and I thought I would put it on the wall. Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know�.I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch� against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been. >>
That is a great story! Reminds me of when I got my first autograph in 1977 which was from Mark "the bird" Fidrych who was at the local Meijer. My mom picked it up. Of course, I couldn't just have the auto of the bird so I commenced to write (in my great 9 year old cursive) the autos of all the tigers around his auto...it ended up looking horrible so I threw it away
<< <i>OK my 75 mini story: Growing up in New Jersey and being born in 1966 I never collected this set, but a buddy of mine had an uncut sheet (turned out to be 75 mini), that I thought was cool…cost me $5. I didn’t even know a mini version of cards existed back in 1979 when I bought it, but it looked cool and I thought I would put it on the wall. Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know�.I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch� against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been. >>
That is a great story! Reminds me of when I got my first autograph in 1977 which was from Mark "the bird" Fidrych who was at the local Meijer. My mom picked it up. Of course, I couldn't just have the auto of the bird so I commenced to write (in my great 9 year old cursive) the autos of all the tigers around his auto...it ended up looking horrible so I threw it away >>
Love old stories like these. Was able to get Mark Fidrych's autograph at local appliance store in Michigan, also they had Hank Aaron at the same store on a different date. Wish I knew where they were now??
<< <i>OK my 75 mini story: Growing up in New Jersey and being born in 1966 I never collected this set, but a buddy of mine had an uncut sheet (turned out to be 75 mini), that I thought was cool…cost me $5. I didn’t even know a mini version of cards existed back in 1979 when I bought it, but it looked cool and I thought I would put it on the wall. Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know….I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch” against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been. >>
Funny, I was also born in 1966. 75 was the second year I had been collecting baseball cards. Having lived in Michigan, I remember having a bunch of minis and regular cards from 75, but when I went off to college I gave them away to some neighborhood kid. Thought I was done collecting cards back then!!
Was looking through the PSA Pop list for the Mini's and thought I'd list the Top 20 most difficult strictly looking at the percentages. Of course many very difficult cards simply have not had enough examples graded to make this list and we can talk about those cards outside of this context So here's the the Top 20 on the PSA 10 list.
It's no surprise the star cards dominate the list. It is interesting to see the Al Fitzmorris card sneak onto the list, my guess, it won't stay on the top 20 list very much longer
Here's the Top 20 toughest PSA 9's strickly based on percentages. I'm indicating how many examples exist followed by percentage of overall graded and how many PSA 10's exist or the lack thereof.
1. 647 Claudell Washington 1 (.0077) No PSA 10's 2. 125 Ken Singleton 2 (.0139) 2 PSA 10's 3. 603 Lou Krausse 2 (.0235) No PSA 10's 4. 173 Steve Rodgers 3 (.0250) No PSA 10's 5. 1 Hank Aaron HL 14 (.0267) 4 PSA 10's 6 53 Dave Giusti 2 (.0277) No PSA 10's 7. 500 Nolan Ryan 26 (.0279) No PSA 10's with over 900 examples graded, not so surprising why it's at #7. 8. 458 Ross Grimsley 2 (.0289) No PSA 10's 9. 583 Andy Etchebarren 4 (.0333) No PSA 10's 5 years ago nobody would have believed this card would ever be at number 9! 10. 259 Len Randle 3 (.0337) No PSA 10's 10. 600 Rod Carew 10 (.0337) 1 PSA 10 12. 16 Frank Tanana 3 (.0357) No PSA 10's 13. 405 John Montague 2 (.0384) No PSA 10's 14. 460 N.L. Championship 4 (.0388) 2 PSA 10's 15. 103 Rick Miller 4 (.0400) No PSA 10's 16. 30 Bert Blyleven 6 (.0425) No PSA 10's 17. 660 Hank Aaron 31 (.0446) 1 PSA 10 pretty impressive making the top 20 with 31 PSA 9's, though there have been 694 graded 18. 297 Craig Kusick 3 (.0447) No PSA 10's 19. 195 1957 MVP's 19 (.0456) 2 PSA 10's 20. 223 Robin Yount 67 (.0474) 9 PSA 10's
While there are a few more PSA 10's of the Robin Yount Mini compared to the George Brett Mini. The real difference is in the number of PSA 9's! Only 67 PSA 9's of Yount compared to126 PSA 9's of Brett.... WOW!
Quite a reduction in the number of Star cards compared to the PSA 10 list. I was a bit surprised to see the results of the PSA 8 top 20.
Neat analysis MM. Not a lot of surprises relatively speaking. It might be more enlightening to do the 8 and 9 again, using 2 lists for each, one for stars and one suppressing them, which would give a truer read.
The presence of stars greatly skews the %, as will any high $ card. It all comes down to math. For example, on a Al Fitzmorris, I can't make money on an 8 (in fact will lose money), so I will only grade a 9 with a chance at a 10. This will make the card look easier than it is, since there are fewer cards subbed. On the other hand, I will grade Aaron 660s all day long as even PSA 6 or 8 oc sell well.
From that perspective, on star cards, it might be better to assume that most, if not all, gradable cards in the hands of folks who submit, have in fact been submitted. In these cases, I think you have a true read on average condition as well as difficulty in high grade. One of your examples is the Aaron 1. It is a valuable card and I and others have subbed them every chance I get, yet it is still a pop 14. I have a little theory on that card actually... it sits right next to Yount on the sheet, so when sheets have been cut over the years, I believe most of the Aarons have been sacrificed. In cases where the yount has a wrinkle or pd, the Aaron was graded. That is my gut on the relatively high pop of 4 10s.
Interesting MM, so since Gullett is nowhere to be seen - it seems you can substantially lower the price on that 9 you have been dangling in front of me at that ridiculous price
Also, it is interesting that the Gibson HL is totally disappeared. One interesting card is the Morgan 9. I knew I was destroying 5 short 9s so was looking for full nicely centered examples, but they have been few and far between over the last couple years...now it is down to a pop of 30 from 35. Similarly, the Jackson is notorious for being beheaded. In my database I have 8 obvious short certs and only 5 full-sized examples. I am not sure how many full-sized B. Robinsons are out there, but it is well south of 11.
BTW the number of 10s has increased by 20+ cards two days ago, looks like all the sheets have yet to be cut. I am pretty sure I know where the next batch of 10s will be coming up for auction from.
Lol, Henry there are bigger reasons why I priced the Gullett so high. You can't take all these percentages to seriously all things considered. My Gullet could be one of perhaps two or three of the finest examples? The more noteable reason is that it's from my #1 set. Without a replacement my set would be declining for the first time in 10 years. The very fact that I was willing to part with it at any cost should be somewhat surprising to you. Why not just make an offer to buy my entire set?
Okay MM - time to put up!! You've been dancing around selling your set for years (at least 1/2 dozen times I can remember) - I think many of us would be interested in hearing what you believe to be the offer you cant refuse on your set Don't cop out and say - "you tell me" how about "you tell us?" Who knows maybe Spence reads this forum.
That's the thing about offers..... they usually come from a buyer not a seller. The going rate of PSA 10's and hard to find PSA 9's should help guide any potential buyer in the right direction. Keep in mind it's not like a one card purchase. The fact that my set has hundreds of examples that by themselves would be nice to own should also bring understanding of just what a buyer would be getting, a unique set that has yet to be duplicated. As a whole it's just something you can't go out and find anywhere else. What a buyer would be getting is a piece of unique collectors history, a one of kind set, filled with several one of a kind examples. You don't just add up what each card is worth and have the sets value. The fact that it's the #1 set certainly enhances it's value. Like any other rare item, where only a few exist, buyers will pay a premium.
What's the point of me telling you what I have into this set? The fact is, I'd never sell it for what I have into it. The offer would have to exceed that figure considerably. I took the risk in pursuing this set and building it to it's current level. I've enjoyed that risk and pursuit a great deal as well. This set has a history. The passion of a collector who admired the 75 Topps Mini's from childhood, and now into his adult years. It will stay with my family for a very long time, unless that "offer I can't refuse" is made. Any figure someone maybe looking for will have to come from a collector with a passion for the 75 Topps Mini's beyond my own.
Is there any such collector out there? Only time will tell
I only read the first and last post. I do have the set, ungraded, and a couple of packs. But, I have 2 complete pre 1975 Topps baseball sets (or more accurately subsets) that were smaller than the 75 Minis. The complete sets are the Topps 1948 Magic Photos and 1956 Hocus Focus. I have only half of the 1955 Hocus Focus set. These were pack issued cards, not inserts. I will say the 75 Minis are a much better product. Congratulations on a great set.
I also have the smaller 51 Red and Blue backs, also pack issued. UI have 1969 Topps Super set but would have to recheck it on size compared to the 75s. The 69 Deckles and many other inserts and test sets were smaller, but the 75s were the first attempt at shrinking a regular set. The 85 Minis, which were never released at retail, are harder to put together, and did not duplicate the entire set, only a portion
Well MM, The fact that you refuse to discuss a BIN; but keep dangling the set with the proviso that you are not interested in selling your family heirloom would constitute 15 yards for "taunting" on most fields!
It would take 1/2 million for me to even consider parting with my set having spent 7 years of my life working on it. And what would I do with that money anyways? Spend 72.5K on hookers and booze...well mainly hookers and claim it off as an entertainment expense (Margin Call)? I think any of us can have our f**k fish moment (Adaptation one of my favorite diatribes of all time) but I am disappointed you wont throw out a figure just for discussion.
EDIT: Thinking of the John LaRoche diatribe from Adaptation led me to start this post
You feel my reply doesn't allow for discussion? You're disappointed.
Surely you jest? ...... simply make "the offer I can't refuse". You won't be able to write the ending of your book on 75 Topps Mini's until you've reached beyond the "trail_to_the_top". Are you not ready for the moment? By all means Henry, don't be disappointed..... take the more nobel and respected path..... Carpe Diem!
You feel I'm taunting? I'd saying having fun with this discussion would be more accurate my fellow collector
If the 10s keep popping and come up for sale, it will be interesting to see if Henry can actually eclipse MM in the rankings. The right star in a 10 or a cumulative assortment of common upgrades from 9 to 10 might do it, if the expense is worth it!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Naw, I'll never catch MM, I am way too many cards short. But I never went into this to be number one on any list - just enjoy collecting/hoarding. And as I have said to a few of you, I wouldn't trade my set for any other set - it's too personal. I must admit - I am about 40 cards short of completing the 1970s mega run...that will be my life accomplishment and I actually enjoy being number 1, although I know that BBCards4U has an INCREDIBLE number of pristine 70s cards. Hopefully, I'll be the first to complete it. However, PSA keeps coming up with inane and irritating so called "variations" the newest being two border "gaps" on 1973 cards...
Here is a scary thought...I just checked and I now own 3000+ PSA 9 minis...each and every one fills the holder! Also, over the past 3-5 years I have been focused on bidding on centered examples...how many of these are 10s sitting in 9 holders? Could make things interesting no?
Henry, I thought you had 6 PSA graded sets of Mini's. I see you are working on twice that number. That is utterly amazing! You know, some may think your remark of collecting/hoarding might be a bit of an understatement. Monopolies are illegal. I may soon have to relinquish my PSA Set Registry Forum call name to you!
Thanks MM, My plan is to sell a 9.00 set and an 8.00 set in 2025 which is the 50th anniversary. I may sell off a set or two before to collectors. I just keep putting in bids that I deem fair market value, if I win great, if not no worries. I seem to catch cards during a lull...then occasionally I update my database and find that I am only so many cards short of a set so I keep an eye out for certain cards. I think the amazing thing is that the number of sets are after I destroyed 1500 8-9-10 minis. I would like to end up with 5 someday...
EDIT: I destroyed a few Gullets, and cant seem to get beyond a 7 on my submissions...that card, surprisingly, has evolved into the most difficult to find. I am certain a large percentage of the graded 8s and 9s are short. This card is yet another highly undervalued card in a set that is extremely undervalued IMO
Comments
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
18 1 21798958 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 279 MILT MAY Card
19 1 21798959 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 255 DWIGHT EVANS Card
20 1 21798960 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 400 DICK ALLEN Card
21 1 21798961 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 127 GLENN BORGMANN Card
22 1 21798962 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 362 STEVE HARGAN Card
23 1 21798963 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 15 JOSE CARDENAL Card
24 1 21798964 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 615 ROOKIE PITCHERS Card
25 1 21798965 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 560 TONY PEREZ Card
26 1 21798966 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 90 RUSTY STAUB Card
27 1 21798967 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 363 CARMEN FANZONE Card
28 1 21798968 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 498 AL DOWNING Card
29 1 21798969 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 570 JIM WYNN Card
30 1 21798970 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 475 DARRELL EVANS Card
31 1 21798971 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 277 FRANK TAVERAS Card
32 1 21798972 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 347 MIKE CALDWELL Card
33 1 21798973 N8: MISCUT 1975 TOPPS MINI 235 JACK BILLINGHAM Card
34 1 21798974 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 510 VIDA BLUE Card
35 1 21798975 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 112 LARRY HARDY Card
36 1 21798976 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 263 JIM PERRY Card
37 1 21798977 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 274 VICENTE ROMO Card
38 1 21798978 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 140 STEVE GARVEY Card
39 1 21798979 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 517 CHECKLIST 397-528 Card
40 1 21798980 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 448 FRANK DUFFY Card
41 1 21798981 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 591 GLENN ABBOTT Card
42 1 21798982 MINT 9 1975 TOPPS MINI 586 TIM McCARVER Card
43 1 21798983 N6: MINIMUM SIZE REQUIREMENT 1975 TOPPS MINI 564 TOMMY DAVIS Card
44 1 21798984 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 103 RICK MILLER Card
44 2 21798985 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 103 RICK MILLER Card
45 1 21798986 NEAR MINT 7 1975 TOPPS MINI 16 FRANK TANANA Card
46 1 21798987 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 503 FRED STANLEY Card
47 1 21798988 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 178 CESAR TOVAR Card
48 1 21798989 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 325 TONY OLIVA Card
49 1 21798990 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 TOPPS MINI 340 PAUL SPLITTORFF Card
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
How much would you pay for a full size PSA 9 no qualifier Henry? Send me a PM and we can discuss further
Dave
The question is when will the ceiling be broken for these types of cards in this decade and will the increase be incremental or dramatic?
In regards to the minis, I have long held that the 9s for this year are significantly more undervalued than most from this decade because the shorties have been circulating and undercutting the average VCP price. This has made the VCP prices much more unreliable for this year than most. I have always bid a floor price for 9s when I see nice ones come up whether I need them or not...I have yet to reach a point where the other collectors routinely beat my price. This has happened much more often (to my pain) on the 10s! But it is getting close...my max bid on the most recent beautiful B. Robinson psa9 was only around 15 dollars more than the underbid (very sorry Jim
So what is the implication of the 39K waxbox case? One, I don't see mini waxboxes ever selling for under 2K in the future because there is plenty of demand, the demand is broader than historical markets and the supply is basically now set and shrinking by the year. As a novelty can I see the boxes selling for 3K in 3-5 years? Most definitely, which would bring the value of the recent case to around 50K! Can I see deep pockets paying 50K for one of the last remaining mini Conlon cases? Why not? Now I have to figure out technically how this will be reflected in PSA graded singles. Very interesting to develop this theory, any initial brainstorming ideas?
<< <i>I am looking to buy a Jim Rice rookie in PSA 2, 3 or 5 with no qualifiers. Please PM if you have one to sell.
Dave >>
Dave, what do you have against a 4?
Please let me know
Fred
collecting RAW Topps baseball cards 1952 Highs to 1972. looking for collector grade (somewhere between psa 4-7 condition). let me know what you have, I'll take it, I want to finish sets, I must have something you can use for trade.
looking for Topps 71-72 hi's-62-53-54-55-59, I have these sets started
<< <i>I have been thinking about the recent surge in prices for unopened 1970s material. Most importantly IMO, this is NOT a bubble because the supply side is so miniscule. However, more interestingly, I wonder how and when higher prices for unopened will be reflected generally in the prices of high end single cards. I am working through some numbers and I'll let you all know what I come up with. I believe generally that there is a severe "lag" effect because of the intensely slow circulation rate of high end cards. For example, I just snagged a 1971 Ernie Banks psa9 population 3 for 3.8K. I honestly feel that I got a HUGE bargain on this particular card. There was no VCP on the card because it has never exchanged hands publically. If I look across most of the high end cards (usually PSA 10s) across the decade there is a general ceiling effect of around 3-4K for the most sought after highest graded star cards. For example, I also won the 1973 #1 HR King card in a psa10 (pop 1) for under 4K.
The question is when will the ceiling be broken for these types of cards in this decade and will the increase be incremental or dramatic?
In regards to the minis, I have long held that the 9s for this year are significantly more undervalued than most from this decade because the shorties have been circulating and undercutting the average VCP price. This has made the VCP prices much more unreliable for this year than most. I have always bid a floor price for 9s when I see nice ones come up whether I need them or not...I have yet to reach a point where the other collectors routinely beat my price. This has happened much more often (to my pain) on the 10s! But it is getting close...my max bid on the most recent beautiful B. Robinson psa9 was only around 15 dollars more than the underbid (very sorry Jim
So what is the implication of the 39K waxbox case? One, I don't see mini waxboxes ever selling for under 2K in the future because there is plenty of demand, the demand is broader than historical markets and the supply is basically now set and shrinking by the year. As a novelty can I see the boxes selling for 3K in 3-5 years? Most definitely, which would bring the value of the recent case to around 50K! Can I see deep pockets paying 50K for one of the last remaining mini Conlon cases? Why not? Now I have to figure out technically how this will be reflected in PSA graded singles. Very interesting to develop this theory, any initial brainstorming ideas? >>
Those are interesting projections, Henry. I've been collecting vintage unopened product for about 20 yaers now, and what I'm witnessing at present in this market seems more to me of speculative nature of the unopened product itself, not the sum of its parts. IOW, I would not necessarily expect a correlation between the values of graded cards and unopened prices. There is also a fundamental difference between the two sides that should be noted, and that is that the population of high grade cards can only become more plentiful while the number of sealed vintage cases and boxes can only decrease in time. We are already witnessing a disconnect in the value of late 70s cello boxes and the value of the cards inside those boxes, the vast majority of which are not even worth the cost of grading unless they grade Gem Mint 10. I don't expect that the two sides to reconcile in the future~quite the opposite, in fact, in that more and more collectors will be willing to lay out big bucks for sealed cases and boxes with no thought to the sum of its parts. Of course, the idea of a PSA 9 or 10 key rookie or HOFer will make packs from that year very desirable, but the value of unopened is not and hasn't been tied to graded card values for most issues in the 70s at least for quite a while now.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
But I do believe that there is a "lagged" significant correlation between structural adjustment of unopened and subsequent price structure of PSA graded cards. It would take me months to set up the data and run the proper statistical analysis but my intuition says it is there. The lag goes this way...
1. Unopened skyrockets in value with no responding flood of hoarded stash, therefore a new floor is reached.
2. First lag will be the primary rookies or key cards (we have seen this with the price adjustments for cards such as 1973 Schmidt at 2K, 1975 Brett at 1.5-2K, among others)
3. Second lag will be the "white whale" low population commons (this has been happening sporatically in the 1970s with huge hammer prices throughout the years. For example, look at 1976 which is a sleepy relatively unpopular set. Recent prices for low pops such as Briggs, Torres and Oliva have been staggering>
4. Third lag will be the general stars and relatively popular cards.
5. Final lag (which may take 5 years) is a readjustment of common psa 8 and psa 9 prices.
The psychology of the lag effect is that the informed collecting community realizes that there is a dwindling supply of pristine raw cards which fuels high grade population growth. They therefore surmise that pop growth will begin to slow dramatically overtime.
The single greatest moderator, however, is the number of active collectors which tends to wax and wane with unpredictable cycles.
<< <i>Good points Tim,
But I do believe that there is a "lagged" significant correlation between structural adjustment of unopened and subsequent price structure of PSA graded cards. It would take me months to set up the data and run the proper statistical analysis but my intuition says it is there. The lag goes this way...
1. Unopened skyrockets in value with no responding flood of hoarded stash, therefore a new floor is reached.
2. First lag will be the primary rookies or key cards (we have seen this with the price adjustments for cards such as 1973 Schmidt at 2K, 1975 Brett at 1.5-2K, among others)
3. Second lag will be the "white whale" low population commons (this has been happening sporatically in the 1970s with huge hammer prices throughout the years. For example, look at 1976 which is a sleepy relatively unpopular set. Recent prices for low pops such as Briggs, Torres and Oliva have been staggering>
4. Third lag will be the general stars and relatively popular cards.
5. Final lag (which may take 5 years) is a readjustment of common psa 8 and psa 9 prices.
The psychology of the lag effect is that the informed collecting community realizes that there is a dwindling supply of pristine raw cards which fuels high grade population growth. They therefore surmise that pop growth will begin to slow dramatically overtime.
The single greatest moderator, however, is the number of active collectors which tends to wax and wane with unpredictable cycles. >>
I'm not sure, though, that you can tie in the rise in graded card values with the value of unopened product from this era, as the vast majority of people buying vintage unopened, pre-1980 at least, do so with absolutely no intention of opening the packs. In that sense, I would isolate the unopened market as a separate entity from the market for graded cards, which are enjoying a nice rise in value, as well, for their own reasons, some of which you stated, but I would fundamentally disagree that the appreciation of graded card values is directly linked or a consequence of the maket value for unopened product. I do hope you are correct in your assessment of graded card values on the whole going forward, however!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Simple question: What is the relationship between unopened and graded for the 60s today and what was it ten years ago?
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Right after the Conolon collection was auctioned off, BBCE started offering Mini wax packs for $25 apiece. They had been around $35 a pack. At the time, high pop PSA 9's were going for around $15 apiece, so at $25 a wax pack, I figured I couldn't lose by buying and opening a wax pack. So that's what I did, and so did alot of other folks. All of sudden, I'd go to the local and regional card shows, and find a wealth of high grade, pack fresh raw mini commons; I would ask the dealer where they came from, and invariably the response was "I just bought these off a guy who opened a box, picked out the stars to grade, and sold off the rest to me." Looking back now, I'm certain those boxes came out of the Conolon sale. Well, I was buying those "discarded" common Mini's for my RAW set by the dozens every month - they were in abundance. Right around that time, the prices of PSA 8 commons dropped - I was seeing these graded commons on eBay for 2.99 apiece, including shipping. And one member in old Mini thread was literally giving away PSA 8 commons. So, with the low prices of graded commons and the wealth of raw commons out there, I decided to start a graded set, and so did others. Well, I'm not finding those raw commons in abundance any more at card shows. The few high grade commons I am finding and buying up now, aren't worth grading (yet) because I can't sell them for more than the cost of the raw cards plus the grading fee. That part of the "lag" is still out there - in other words, there is enough supply of graded 8's and 9's out there, generally speaking, to meet the present demand. Prices stay low. The price lag remains. If new registry collectors come aboard, and that is 1 of 2 of the keys to all this, that new demand will buy up the present supply of graded that's out there now, and prices should gradually creep up. The 2nd key part, and it's already in place, is that there appears to me to be no new supply coming from wax, because it's not cost-effective to rip for graded cards anymore.
So, Tim, in a nutshell, I think the link between the wax price and the graded price is indirect in that the high price of the wax has the effect of suppressing the high graded supply. We now need the new demand to show up as the second part of the puzzle to drive up the price of the existing supply of higher graded Mini's. It seems to me that's the time lag we're experiencing now.
Is this what you're getting at, Henry?
<< <i>It is easier than all that and Tim, you are the one that can run with my point:
Simple question: What is the relationship between unopened and graded for the 60s today and what was it ten years ago? >>
The 60s is a good example of what I was getting at above--unopened product from that decade is virtually non-existent at this point and prices have risen to the point where it would be financial suicide to consider opening any packs in hopes of recouping your investment or even breaking even. Ten years ago that was not necessarily the case.
For minis, we are already approaching that point where the value of the unopened product har far outpaced value of graded catds with some exceptions. Will a pop 35 psa 9 ever double in pruce? That remains to be seen. Will a formerly super low pop 9 like #459 AL Championships ever command $300 again?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Thanks and indeed you are describing the frontline market forces linking PSA singles to unopened prices.
Tim,
You bring up a very important counter to my lag theory. The ability to rescale what was once thought to be a subjective "low pop" to a new definition of "low pop." However, we can integrate Indy's story with yours. Your story about the price spike in unopened is really a supply side story...the market is realizing how few boxes/cases are actually out there. Indy is telling a demand side story. There are plenty of solid raw cards but no demand that would warrant sending them in to PSA (why pay 6 dollars to grade a high pop 8 that would command 4 dollars on ebay). My point is that the supply side argument that leads to a jump in prices paid in unopened can only be deemed rational if it is eventually justified by subsequent rising prices in high end graded cards from the same set. There must be a correlation (not saying a 1 for 1 relationship) between the two. The other factor, of course, is the unopened collectible market itself. I am certain that I can create a relatively accurate formula that would be able to predict this relationship. This is after 6 years of buying both unopened and graded for all 10 years in the 1970s. I really believe that there is a rational market forming after the 1990s Griffey Jr./Steriod supply debacle.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Today - total graded population to total unopened population ratio g/u
Tomorrow - will be g+/u-
every day that ratio will skew further, almost like a reverse moore's law.
if the ratio of graded collectors to unopened collectors stays constant, it is easy to see the end game
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
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Shiny
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
Yes, I have/had a few like that. The issue was either the card was too long (or wide) to fit in the standard holder or the card was trapezoidal/not square cut so that it didn't fit within the inner brackets of the standard holder.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know….I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch” against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been.
<< <i>OK my 75 mini story: Growing up in New Jersey and being born in 1966 I never collected this set, but a buddy of mine had an uncut sheet (turned out to be 75 mini), that I thought was cool…cost me $5. I didn’t even know a mini version of cards existed back in 1979 when I bought it, but it looked cool and I thought I would put it on the wall.
Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know�.I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch� against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been. >>
That is a great story! Reminds me of when I got my first autograph in 1977 which was from Mark "the bird" Fidrych who was at the local Meijer. My mom picked it up.
Of course, I couldn't just have the auto of the bird so I commenced to write (in my great 9 year old cursive) the autos of all the tigers around his auto...it ended up looking horrible so I threw it away
<< <i>
<< <i>OK my 75 mini story: Growing up in New Jersey and being born in 1966 I never collected this set, but a buddy of mine had an uncut sheet (turned out to be 75 mini), that I thought was cool…cost me $5. I didn’t even know a mini version of cards existed back in 1979 when I bought it, but it looked cool and I thought I would put it on the wall.
Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know�.I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch� against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been. >>
That is a great story! Reminds me of when I got my first autograph in 1977 which was from Mark "the bird" Fidrych who was at the local Meijer. My mom picked it up.
Of course, I couldn't just have the auto of the bird so I commenced to write (in my great 9 year old cursive) the autos of all the tigers around his auto...it ended up looking horrible so I threw it away
Love old stories like these. Was able to get Mark Fidrych's autograph at local appliance store in Michigan, also they had Hank Aaron at the same store on a different date. Wish I knew where they were now??
<< <i>OK my 75 mini story: Growing up in New Jersey and being born in 1966 I never collected this set, but a buddy of mine had an uncut sheet (turned out to be 75 mini), that I thought was cool…cost me $5. I didn’t even know a mini version of cards existed back in 1979 when I bought it, but it looked cool and I thought I would put it on the wall.
Now here is the kicker…instead of putting it on the wall like I first wanted too, I cut it up. I was 14, what did I know….I was peeved when I found out they were small; I couldn’t even “pitch” against my friends. If you want to know what sheet it was I will scan in the Young and Brett RC’s one day. I still have them all…I think I keep them just to taunt myself, what a nice framed uncut sheet that would have been. >>
Funny, I was also born in 1966. 75 was the second year I had been collecting baseball cards. Having lived in Michigan, I remember having a bunch of minis and regular cards from 75, but when I went off to college I gave them away to some neighborhood kid. Thought I was done collecting cards back then!!
<< <i>
Thanks, still around, just not quite as much. Having two kids in college really eats into the card budget!!
*(percentage of total gradings)
1. 660 Hank Aaron 1 (.00144)
2. 300 Reggie Jackson 1 (.00212)
3. 600 Rod Carew 1 (.00337)
4. 228 George Brett 7 (.00358)
5. 623 Rookie Keith Hernandez 1 (.00361)
6. 50 Brooks Robinson 1 (.00400)
7. 203 1965 MVP's 1 (.00404)
7. 211 1973 MVP's 1 (.00404)
9. 198 1960 MVP's 1 (.00460)
10. 150 Bob Gibson 1 (.00465)
11. 194 1956 MVP's 2 (.00470)
12. 195 1957 MVP's 2 (.00480)
13. 530 Gaylord Perry 1 (.00520)
14. 20 Thurman Munson 3 (.00567)
15. 190 1952 MVP's 1 (.00581)
16. 180 Joe Morgan 2 (.00604)
17. 223 Robin Yount 9 (.00637)
18. 565 Joe Torre 1 (.00662)
18. 24 Al Fitzmorris 1 (.00662)
20. 284 Ken Griffey 1 (.00684)
It's no surprise the star cards dominate the list. It is interesting to see the Al Fitzmorris card sneak onto the list, my guess, it won't stay on the top 20 list very much longer
Next up the top 20 of the PSA 9's
1. 647 Claudell Washington 1 (.0077) No PSA 10's
2. 125 Ken Singleton 2 (.0139) 2 PSA 10's
3. 603 Lou Krausse 2 (.0235) No PSA 10's
4. 173 Steve Rodgers 3 (.0250) No PSA 10's
5. 1 Hank Aaron HL 14 (.0267) 4 PSA 10's
6 53 Dave Giusti 2 (.0277) No PSA 10's
7. 500 Nolan Ryan 26 (.0279) No PSA 10's with over 900 examples graded, not so surprising why it's at #7.
8. 458 Ross Grimsley 2 (.0289) No PSA 10's
9. 583 Andy Etchebarren 4 (.0333) No PSA 10's 5 years ago nobody would have believed this card would ever be at number 9!
10. 259 Len Randle 3 (.0337) No PSA 10's
10. 600 Rod Carew 10 (.0337) 1 PSA 10
12. 16 Frank Tanana 3 (.0357) No PSA 10's
13. 405 John Montague 2 (.0384) No PSA 10's
14. 460 N.L. Championship 4 (.0388) 2 PSA 10's
15. 103 Rick Miller 4 (.0400) No PSA 10's
16. 30 Bert Blyleven 6 (.0425) No PSA 10's
17. 660 Hank Aaron 31 (.0446) 1 PSA 10 pretty impressive making the top 20 with 31 PSA 9's, though there have been 694 graded
18. 297 Craig Kusick 3 (.0447) No PSA 10's
19. 195 1957 MVP's 19 (.0456) 2 PSA 10's
20. 223 Robin Yount 67 (.0474) 9 PSA 10's
While there are a few more PSA 10's of the Robin Yount Mini compared to the George Brett Mini. The real difference is in the number of PSA 9's! Only 67 PSA 9's of Yount compared to126 PSA 9's of Brett.... WOW!
Quite a reduction in the number of Star cards compared to the PSA 10 list. I was a bit surprised to see the results of the PSA 8 top 20.
1. 1 Hank Aaron HL (.2562)
2. 5 Nolan Ryan HL (.2594)
3. 223 Robin Yount (.2608)
4. 500 Nolan Ryan (.2642)
5. 647 Claudell Washington (.2713)
6. 30 Bert Blyleven (.2836)
7. 260 Johnny Bench (.3307)
8. 660 Hank Aaron (.3371)
9. 320 Pete Rose (.3404)
10. 143 Cliff Johnson (.3424)
11. 564 Tommy Davis (.3457)
12. 228 George Brett (.3478)
13. 173 Steve Rodgers (.3583)
14. 150 Bob Gibson (.3720)
15. 185 Steve Carlton (.3732)
16. 70 Mike Schmidt (.3886)
17. 21 Rollie Fingers (.3928)
18. 302 Rick Burleson (.3970)
19. 649 Jack Heidemann (.3975)
20. 312 Strikeout Leaders Ryan/Carlton (.4000)
Far more star cards on the PSA 8 list than the PSA 9 list.
The presence of stars greatly skews the %, as will any high $ card. It all comes down to math. For example, on a Al Fitzmorris, I can't make money on an 8 (in fact will lose money), so I will only grade a 9 with a chance at a 10. This will make the card look easier than it is, since there are fewer cards subbed. On the other hand, I will grade Aaron 660s all day long as even PSA 6 or 8 oc sell well.
From that perspective, on star cards, it might be better to assume that most, if not all, gradable cards in the hands of folks who submit, have in fact been submitted. In these cases, I think you have a true read on average condition as well as difficulty in high grade. One of your examples is the Aaron 1. It is a valuable card and I and others have subbed them every chance I get, yet it is still a pop 14. I have a little theory on that card actually... it sits right next to Yount on the sheet, so when sheets have been cut over the years, I believe most of the Aarons have been sacrificed. In cases where the yount has a wrinkle or pd, the Aaron was graded. That is my gut on the relatively high pop of 4 10s.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
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Also, it is interesting that the Gibson HL is totally disappeared. One interesting card is the Morgan 9. I knew I was destroying 5 short 9s so was looking for full nicely centered examples, but they have been few and far between over the last couple years...now it is down to a pop of 30 from 35. Similarly, the Jackson is notorious for being beheaded. In my database I have 8 obvious short certs and only 5 full-sized examples. I am not sure how many full-sized B. Robinsons are out there, but it is well south of 11.
BTW the number of 10s has increased by 20+ cards two days ago, looks like all the sheets have yet to be cut.
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What's the point of me telling you what I have into this set? The fact is, I'd never sell it for what I have into it. The offer would have to exceed that figure considerably. I took the risk in pursuing this set and building it to it's current level. I've enjoyed that risk and pursuit a great deal as well. This set has a history. The passion of a collector who admired the 75 Topps Mini's from childhood, and now into his adult years. It will stay with my family for a very long time, unless that "offer I can't refuse" is made. Any figure someone maybe looking for will have to come from a collector with a passion for the 75 Topps Mini's beyond my own.
Is there any such collector out there? Only time will tell
I also have the smaller 51 Red and Blue backs, also pack issued. UI have 1969 Topps Super set but would have to recheck it on size compared to the 75s. The 69 Deckles and many other inserts and test sets were smaller, but the 75s were the first attempt at shrinking a regular set. The 85 Minis, which were never released at retail, are harder to put together, and did not duplicate the entire set, only a portion
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
The fact that you refuse to discuss a BIN; but keep dangling the set with the proviso that you are not interested in selling your family heirloom would constitute 15 yards for "taunting" on most fields!
It would take 1/2 million for me to even consider parting with my set having spent 7 years of my life working on it. And what would I do with that money anyways? Spend 72.5K on hookers and booze...well mainly hookers and claim it off as an entertainment expense (Margin Call)? I think any of us can have our f**k fish moment (Adaptation one of my favorite diatribes of all time) but I am disappointed you wont throw out a figure just for discussion.
EDIT: Thinking of the John LaRoche diatribe from Adaptation led me to start this post
F**K FISH
Surely you jest? ...... simply make "the offer I can't refuse". You won't be able to write the ending of your book on 75 Topps Mini's until you've reached beyond the "trail_to_the_top". Are you not ready for the moment? By all means Henry, don't be disappointed..... take the more nobel and respected path..... Carpe Diem!
You feel I'm taunting? I'd saying having fun with this discussion would be more accurate my fellow collector
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
You know, some may think your remark of collecting/hoarding might be a bit of an understatement. Monopolies are illegal.
I may soon have to relinquish my PSA Set Registry Forum call name to you!
Remarkable collection Henry!
My plan is to sell a 9.00 set and an 8.00 set in 2025 which is the 50th anniversary.
I may sell off a set or two before to collectors. I just keep putting in bids that I deem fair market value, if I win great, if not no worries. I seem to catch cards during a lull...then occasionally I update my database and find that I am only so many cards short of a set so I keep an eye out for certain cards. I think the amazing thing is that the number of sets are after I destroyed 1500 8-9-10 minis.
I would like to end up with 5 someday...
EDIT: I destroyed a few Gullets, and cant seem to get beyond a 7 on my submissions...that card, surprisingly, has evolved into the most difficult to find. I am certain a large percentage of the graded 8s and 9s are short. This card is yet another highly undervalued card in a set that is extremely undervalued IMO