<< <i>...but those looking for the old double or triple their money are not gonna see it in the near term... >>
Don't understand this thinking as auctions are closing on eBay for over double issue price every day. Those submitting and garnering 69 grades quadruple their money - easily.
It would be hard to find 10,000 current collectors of these pucks. Maybe give it 25 years and we'll get there.
7/8 I hope you remember you said that later, Lol. It won't take 25 years, that is absurd. We will know in a year and a half or less how these will do, it is all up to the mint. If they crank out the 2011 and 2012 bullion pucks in great numbers [say 100k each or higher], the 2010 will probably rise substantially.
"Well, first start with a 25 year old series with about 1,000,000 active collectors. 3,000,000 doesnt seem that high anymore"
How do you get the information that there are 1,000,000 collectors of ASE's ? I am one and I have several freinds that are but I have no way of knowing how many collectors there are?
"Will there be as many as there are SAE collectors? Super doubtful. It's not the same thing" To me it is the basically the same thing. I collect Bullion coins. I guess if you want to say that that they are 5 oz instead of 1 oz I can agree. I bought The ATB coins instead of my normal ASE's because I thought that the value of these would be higher down the road vs 2010 ASE's
"If they crank out the 2011 and 2012 bullion pucks in great numbers [say 100k each or higher], the 2010 will probably rise substantially."
What happens if they produce LOWER numbers in the subsequent years? Isn't that what they did with those 2007 Washington First Day Covers and the subsequent issues?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i> What happens if they produce LOWER numbers in the subsequent years? Isn't that what they did with those 2007 Washington First Day Covers and the subsequent issues?
Wondercoin >>
Then these probably fall almost to melt value, I am basing my entire belief in these on much higher mintages in 2011/12 because they are the bullion version.
<< <i> I do not see these going below 1200 to 1400. I would always be happy making 1.2 to 1.4x on any investment in a month or two. >>
100% correct.
But the FLIPPERS will be scared even approaching those numbers. After fees at the low end, they make a C note, and a little more. They will be RUNNING for the EXIT. I mean RUNNING. There will be no WALKING going on.
1.5x melt is a very fair low end valuation for a 33,000 mintage bullion issue for raw coins. >>
7/8 I'm with you on these. I've bought several sets w/the almost completed goal of assembling a PCGS 69 set. I can't get rid of the rest fast enough.
I am interested in your thoughts as to the fate of the PCGS 69s, NGC 69 ER PLs and DPLs (which I've yet to see on Ebay).
If you believe that silver is going to go higher, then 1.5 times melt will be a nice payday when I decide to sell. If I can find some ASE's, they are $33. I am into my Apmex set @ $35.46/oz and my A-Mark set @ $38.97.
just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today
If you believe that silver is going to go higher, then 1.5 times melt will be a nice payday when I decide to sell. If I can find some ASE's, they are $33. I am into my Apmex set @ $35.46/oz and my A-Mark set @ $38.97.
I believe...I believe. I think 38.97 silver in a short period of time (1 year) is a no brainer!!
and one more thing with all of this talk about flippers....
I do think that some of the flippers will stick around. I did!
I became interested in Moderns in '06 upon the release of the AGE 20th Anniv. set. I had no intrinsic interest in moderns, and only a minimal interest in any aspect of numismatics. My only interest was flipping.
In the course of doing my due diligence and holding some of these issues for a while, I developed a linking of many of the issues which I was flipping. I started to going to shows, reading NN and CW - first at Boarders and then subscribed, I joined the ANA, started reading The Numismatist, reading books on numismatics and so on.
A year later - while arranging a flip with another Ebayer - he turned me onto this forum where I've been ever since.
Now I collect and flip. I read about numismatics constantly, never miss a Balto. show, go to local shows, and view the collections at The Smithsonian and the DeWitt Wallace Museum at every opportunity.
Numismatics has become a welcome distraction in my life as well as a nice source of flipping income. On top of that, I've learned a great deal about U.S. and World History from the hobby.
I've kept some of my favorite moderns and flipped plenty of others. Much of the proceeds have gone towards classics, Colonials and some nice, high-grade notes (Buffalo, Chief, Educationals, etc.).
My point in going through my introduction and progression in numismatics is that I think that mine is a common story. I think that moderns and the flipping of moderns has brought a LOT of new collectors and money to the hobby.
I think that this all depends on whether they are able and do actually produce a LOT of these next year which would allow them to fill their stated purpose: to serve as a source of silver bullion investing. If they do, given the huge interest in silver investing, I think that they may well catch on an result in HUGE mintages going forward for totally non-numismatic reasons (i.e. their original intention). Will that happen? Who knows of course. I think that it is a very plausible situation. Still, other than the PCGS 69 set which I'm trying to assemble to keep, I'm a sellin' the rest FAST!
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns?
<< <i>and one more thing with all of this talk about flippers....
I do think that some of the flippers will stick around. I did!
I became interested in Moderns in '06 upon the release of the AGE 20th Anniv. set. I had no intrinsic interest in moderns, and only a minimal interest in any aspect of numismatics. My only interest was flipping.
In the course of doing my due diligence and holding some of these issues for a while, I developed a linking of many of the issues which I was flipping. I started to going to shows, reading NN and CW - first at Boarders and then subscribed, I joined the ANA, started reading The Numismatist, reading books on numismatics and so on.
A year later - while arranging a flip with another Ebayer - he turned me onto this forum where I've been ever since.
Now I collect and flip. I read about numismatics constantly, never miss a Balto. show, go to local shows, and view the collections at The Smithsonian and the DeWitt Wallace Museum at every opportunity.
Numismatics has become a welcome distraction in my life as well as a nice source of flipping income. On top of that, I've learned a great deal about U.S. and World History from the hobby.
I've kept some of my favorite moderns and flipped plenty of others. Much of the proceeds have gone towards classics, Colonials and some nice, high-grade notes (Buffalo, Chief, Educationals, etc.).
My point in going through my introduction and progression in numismatics is that I think that mine is a common story. I think that moderns and the flipping of moderns has brought a LOT of new collectors and money to the hobby.
I'll stop now :-) >>
The '06 experience brought in a lot of us who turned out to be long term members. I made a ton of money in 06/07...then this hobby has cost me a fortune since then
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I've got two pre-sales @ avg $2000 completed. I'm waiting to receive the boxes, then forward on. Buyer has 7 day return option. If they choose to return the coins, OK with me.
Two, three, five, seven years from now, I think I'd rather have them.
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings "
It may be me but why would someone pay that kind of money for these coins when he can get a set so much cheaper if he just puts a little effort into it. We here on the boards are so much better off because we pay attention.
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
And what about collector/flippers? I admit I'm in for several of these sets just as I was for the reverse proof silver eagle sets. I've been collecting coins since I was a young kid.... my Dad started me when he brought home a few BU Walking Liberty halves in the late 70s.
I'm in for several ATB sets & have already sold one on eBay for a very nice profit. I have every intention of selling a set or two more to pay for the two sets I'm adding to my collection and passing on to my boys someday. It isn't the first and certainly won't be the last time I flip a couple sets to get the ones I want free. Although I feel bad there may be some collectors that have been unable to get the coins they wanted, they each had exactly the same opportunity I did to get a set.
100% zero remorse here.
<go ahead,,,,, flame away>
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<< <i>It may be me but why would someone pay that kind of money for these coins when he can get a set so much cheaper if he just puts a little effort into it. We here on the boards are so much better off because we pay attention. >>
My guess is that this guy found out that Amark was selling last night for half of what he bought my set for. He wanted to cancel my transaction today, so that's probably what is going on. No more presales for me. I could fight this thing as he is obligated under contract, but as we've discussed on here before, he could just get the coins and complain that they weren't advertised correctly and paypal and ebay usuallly sides with the buyer.
<< <i>and one more thing with all of this talk about flippers....
I do think that some of the flippers will stick around. I did!
I became interested in Moderns in '06 upon the release of the AGE 20th Anniv. set. I had no intrinsic interest in moderns, and only a minimal interest in any aspect of numismatics. My only interest was flipping.
In the course of doing my due diligence and holding some of these issues for a while, I developed a linking of many of the issues which I was flipping. I started to going to shows, reading NN and CW - first at Boarders and then subscribed, I joined the ANA, started reading The Numismatist, reading books on numismatics and so on.
A year later - while arranging a flip with another Ebayer - he turned me onto this forum where I've been ever since.
Now I collect and flip. I read about numismatics constantly, never miss a Balto. show, go to local shows, and view the collections at The Smithsonian and the DeWitt Wallace Museum at every opportunity.
Numismatics has become a welcome distraction in my life as well as a nice source of flipping income. On top of that, I've learned a great deal about U.S. and World History from the hobby.
I've kept some of my favorite moderns and flipped plenty of others. Much of the proceeds have gone towards classics, Colonials and some nice, high-grade notes (Buffalo, Chief, Educationals, etc.).
My point in going through my introduction and progression in numismatics is that I think that mine is a common story. I think that moderns and the flipping of moderns has brought a LOT of new collectors and money to the hobby.
I'll stop now :-) >>
The '06 experience brought in a lot of us who turned out to be long term members. I made a ton of money in 06/07...then this hobby has cost me a fortune since then >>
How about '08. That was an AMAZING year. I'd bet that future modern collectors will say "If only I were in this in '08..." There may not be another like it for decades.
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition.
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition. >>
I think a real problem that could turn up would be people cherrypicking ebay auctions of raw coins and then returning the auction with his or her supply of lesser quality coins. Can you imagine how hard it would be to prove that happened? I think that no returns is the only way to go for raw coins. But a seller better be ready for a long drawn out fight through ebay resolution. I chose to just refund the money, but only because I hadn't sent the coins yet.
<< <i>"If they crank out the 2011 and 2012 bullion pucks in great numbers [say 100k each or higher], the 2010 will probably rise substantially."
What happens if they produce LOWER numbers in the subsequent years? Isn't that what they did with those 2007 Washington First Day Covers and the subsequent issues?
Wondercoin >>
Methinks there is a slight difference with the pucks....The FDC's mintage was reduced because the interest declined and they were not selling out....I can't really say that there is little interest in this issue
I can't imagine the mint making less of these next time. After this fiasco...they won't want to do it again. If they made less, it would just be a new frenzy
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I think ANY quantity limits announced would probably eliminate most of the AP's from selling them again. Why would they even consider repeating this fiasco...
But I do think they will max out at 100,000 pucks/year which would be 50k of each. This was their original plan (100k) but they neglected to mention the mintage would be a total for 2 different issues.
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition. >>
There have been scumbag sellers too. One guy here cancelled three completed auction and re-listed for more money. The greed works both ways.
Investment potential depends heavily on how bad these things milk spot. Take 25% off the price of silver, and toss in a mild tendency to spot... what do you have?
<< <i>The race to the bottom is on lol I will keep my sets, not interested on giving them away. Heck I might pick me a sealed box or two when they hit 1k >>
At some point dealers will step in with wholesale buy/sell spreads. I think these will sell pretty well all year because many potential buyers are sidelined waiting for what they think is the right time to buy. I would not be surprised to see a V shaped pricing chart on these for the year, but it's very unlikely they will ever bounce back to the "pre-sale" levels we saw several weeks ago.
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Therein lies the problem. A FLIPPER dominated issue generally does not result in many being put away or saved for collections - but rather sold as soon as possible - th old PUMP and DUMP.
What collectors like to see is a nice even distribution among real collectors, the larger percentage putting them back, and some trading to develop a two way market. In this fashion, a nice upward trend develops, and usually does better with time, as more and more of the "market sets" get put back by an expanding collector base.
My opinion of these bullion pucks is they are dominated by the FLIPPERS. Probably upwards of 70%+ of available quantities. This is the classic PUMP and DUMP. I think much of the PUMPING is indirectly by the AP's, who under the guise (my opinion) of interpreting the rules, delayed the release to the public, in an orderly fashion, to allow the fenzy in pricing to take hold.
This was further exacerbated by FLIPPERS unfairly categorizing these in the same class as 95W Prf ASE's (where nowhere near the collector base exists in these pucks, not even 5% of the ASE collector base) to aid in selling for the highest price possible on the retail market.
IMO, we are in for a very hard fall. Once the under cutting frenzy begins on ebay, it's ruthless. First it's auction style starting price undercutting, then it's the .99 start auctions, then it's one day auctions to jump the seemingly endless list of items that grows daily.
I understand many of you may want to keep one or two sets, but I would also guess most of you that have secured many more than one through friends and family across multiple AP's are looking to unload. So are thousands of other FLIPPERS.
Good Luck to all. This is a great hobby, keep a set, stay a while. We certainly dont want to replicate the MIB toy market or Baseball Card scene here with Moderns. I fear that after looking at many sellers of ATB sets feedback, that's where they have been......oh well.
Great post, 7/8. As an investor, I simply have to shake my head and marvel at the mindless participation by those who don't know what they are buying and selling. I was just reading in ericj's book again this morning, and I was reflecting on his suggestion that Modern Bullion is a great way to limit your risk while mining for the new Keys.
This really IS a classic PUMP & DUMP. I will be laughing quite a bit as prices drop through the floor, which is kind of ironic since I haven't even received a single set myself yet. I wanted at least 3 of these sets originally, and it looks like I'm going to get at least those 3 sets. As I pointed out once already, there will be quite a few flippers who get disappointed and quite a few new collectors of these who get burned and never come back as a result.
The sleazy behavior of Apmex, and especially Gold Center along with the stealth back-door antics of some of the others and the in-your-face-don't bother calling us Jack Hunts of the AP world will leave a bad taste for many. And the flipping frenzy on ebay will set up an even bigger fiasco in the making for the 2011 issues, which WILL be overproduced and oversold. And remember, we haven't even begun to see what will happen when the Mint gets directly involved with their own "collector issue". What a mess this is!
My initiation into Mint fiascos was 1995. I had been buying 15 Proof Silver Eagles every year until Phillip Deihl decided to screw the faithful by only offering the 1995-W Proof with the expensive Proof AGE set. That was the last time I ever bought a Proof ASE until this year (when I bought one as a baby gift).
I learned my lesson that year. Ever since, I have followed jmski's "Special Rule of Mint Fiascos". The rule goes something like this, "if the Mint screws up badly and the whole thing stinks, because of pricing, unfairness in distribution, insider deals, Congressional stupidity or Mint ineptitude - BE SURE to hold your nose and DOUBLE DOWN."
This is somewhat different from jmski's standard rule of "Thoughtful and Selective Investing in Modern Bullion", which certainly has it's own merits and rewards by carefully monitoring mintages and evaluating potential collector demand.
No, the Special Rule of Mint Fiascos does require clarity and timing. We are well past the clarification phase. Some of the APs made it abundantly clear what kind of deal the ATB Program is. It is a corrupt and mismanaged Mint screwup. Timing is important as well. If you don't have a brother who has part-ownership in an Authorized Mint Distributor, there is only one timing issue, but it isn't "How Fast Can I Flip?" It is "How Long Am I Prepared to Wait?" If you intend to flip your ATB set quickly, you are already too late.
The washout is gonna be ugly, but the long term doesn't look all that bad.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
2/3/2011 - America the Beautiful Silver Coin Update
We continue to process orders for the ATB program. Unfortunately, many people attempted to circumvent the 1 set per household policy. This has slowed down our review and compliance process because we must check all possible permutations of name, address, etc. However, we remain dedicated to distributing the coins as broadly and as quickly as possible. We will not cash checks unless the corresponding order is accepted. We will send individual emails confirming a) receipt of orders, b) acceptance of orders and c) shipment of orders. Regarding packaging, the coins have been a) carefully removed from the original mint boxes and tubes (we use soft gloves and non-abrasive surfaces), b) individually placed in small bubble-wrap envelopes, c) the set placed in a fiberboard envelope, and d) the envelope sealed in a FedEx Bubble Pak. We expect to begin shipping via FedEx Express Saver service in the first half of February.
We thank you for your business and patience. FideliTrade Incorporated
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition. >>
There have been scumbag sellers too. One guy here cancelled three completed auction and re-listed for more money. The greed works both ways. >>
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
terethings bought my pre-sale Fidelitrade ATB's. Paid promptly. I've decided that I will not offer any refunds no matter what. If that means closing my ebay account, so be it. My auction ended 1/26/11. Paid $1802. What they pay for yours and was yours FT?
My initiation into Mint fiascos was 1995. I had been buying 15 Proof Silver Eagles every year until Phillip Deihl decided to screw the faithful by only offering the 1995-W Proof with the expensive Proof AGE set. That was the last time I ever bought a Proof ASE until this year (when I bought one as a baby gift).
That set was a gift. Ironic that you stopped buying there and surprising how you characterize it now.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
By the time the mint gets their "P" collectors version on the market, I think the 2010 bullion version that was purchased from an orginial AP will look like a bargin. The mint was fast to put price controls on the APs, but we will see if they will play by the same rules.
My opinion is, by the time they get the lipstick on their pigs and get them ready for market, (fancy box, coa, special die treatment etc. etc.) the original price that the 2010 bullions were sold for will look like a real deal.
<< <i>By the time the mint gets their "P" collectors version on the market, I think the 2010 bullion version that was purchased from an orginial AP will look like a bargin. The mint was fast to put price controls on the APs, but we will see if they will play by the same rules.
They will probably stick to the usual margins for silver-maybe a tad more but I am sure there will be a one per household limit on these after what they put the AP's through.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I agree with you completely on that one. I am going to hold on to my 2 sets as I really feel the price on these will go back up a year from now. The silver content alone makes it worth holding on to and not taking a quick profit now if you are not spending the rent money to buy them in the first place.
NGC early release cut off is 2/14 and rumor was PCGS will designate all ATB as first strike. So which grading service would you go with? I am thinking long term the NGC early release is the way to go..........thoughts?
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Comments
<< <i>...but those looking for the old double or triple their money are not gonna see it in the near term... >>
Don't understand this thinking as auctions are closing on eBay for over double issue price every day. Those submitting and garnering 69 grades quadruple their money - easily.
7/8 I hope you remember you said that later, Lol. It won't take 25 years, that is absurd. We will know in a year and a half or less how these will do, it is all up to the mint. If they crank out the 2011 and 2012 bullion pucks in great numbers [say 100k each or higher], the 2010 will probably rise substantially.
"Well, first start with a 25 year old series with about 1,000,000 active collectors. 3,000,000 doesnt seem that high anymore"
How do you get the information that there are 1,000,000 collectors of ASE's ?
I am one and I have several freinds that are but I have no way of knowing how many collectors there are?
"Will there be as many as there are SAE collectors? Super doubtful. It's not the same thing"
To me it is the basically the same thing. I collect Bullion coins. I guess if you want to say that that they are 5 oz instead of 1 oz I can agree. I bought The ATB coins instead of my normal ASE's because I thought that the value of these would be higher down the road vs 2010 ASE's
This is cool should of done this a long time ago.
What happens if they produce LOWER numbers in the subsequent years? Isn't that what they did with those 2007 Washington First Day Covers and the subsequent issues?
Wondercoin
<< <i>
What happens if they produce LOWER numbers in the subsequent years? Isn't that what they did with those 2007 Washington First Day Covers and the subsequent issues?
Wondercoin >>
Then these probably fall almost to melt value, I am basing my entire belief in these on much higher mintages in 2011/12 because they are the bullion version.
<< <i>
<< <i> I do not see these going below 1200 to 1400. I would always be happy making 1.2 to 1.4x on any investment in a month or two. >>
100% correct.
But the FLIPPERS will be scared even approaching those numbers. After fees at the low end, they make a C note, and a little more. They will be RUNNING for the EXIT. I mean RUNNING. There will be no WALKING going on.
1.5x melt is a very fair low end valuation for a 33,000 mintage bullion issue for raw coins. >>
7/8 I'm with you on these. I've bought several sets w/the almost completed goal of assembling a PCGS 69 set. I can't get rid of the rest fast enough.
I am interested in your thoughts as to the fate of the PCGS 69s, NGC 69 ER PLs and DPLs (which I've yet to see on Ebay).
How about the rest of you lurkers show yourselves :-)
2010 33,000
2011 85,000
2012 100,000
Mintages I would hate to see:
2010 33,000
2011, 32,000
2012 27,000
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<< <i>$1600 starting bid for a sealed A Mark set, just ended, no bidders.... >>
Yeah, but...
linkerooni
No doubt the trend is emerging downward, slowly but surely.
Here she comes! Warming up!!! OH-SO-LA-DA,DA,DA-DEE-LAH-DAH-DEE DOH!!!! Turn your head!!!! AAAcccck!!!!
I believe...I believe. I think 38.97 silver in a short period of time (1 year) is a no brainer!!
I do think that some of the flippers will stick around. I did!
I became interested in Moderns in '06 upon the release of the AGE 20th Anniv. set. I had no intrinsic interest in moderns, and only a minimal interest in any aspect of numismatics. My only interest was flipping.
In the course of doing my due diligence and holding some of these issues for a while, I developed a linking of many of the issues which I was flipping. I started to going to shows, reading NN and CW - first at Boarders and then subscribed, I joined the ANA, started reading The Numismatist, reading books on numismatics and so on.
A year later - while arranging a flip with another Ebayer - he turned me onto this forum where I've been ever since.
Now I collect and flip. I read about numismatics constantly, never miss a Balto. show, go to local shows, and view the collections at The Smithsonian and the DeWitt Wallace Museum at every opportunity.
Numismatics has become a welcome distraction in my life as well as a nice source of flipping income. On top of that, I've learned a great deal about U.S. and World History from the hobby.
I've kept some of my favorite moderns and flipped plenty of others. Much of the proceeds have gone towards classics, Colonials and some nice, high-grade notes (Buffalo, Chief, Educationals, etc.).
My point in going through my introduction and progression in numismatics is that I think that mine is a common story. I think that moderns and the flipping of moderns has brought a LOT of new collectors and money to the hobby.
I'll stop now :-)
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<< <i>$1600 starting bid for a sealed A Mark set, just ended, no bidders.... >>
Yeah, but...
linkerooni
No doubt the trend is emerging downward, slowly but surely.
Here she comes! Warming up!!! OH-SO-LA-DA,DA,DA-DEE-LAH-DAH-DEE DOH!!!! Turn your head!!!! AAAcccck!!!!
'Dar she blows!!!!
<< <i>MIntages I would love to see:
2010 33,000
2011 85,000
2012 100,000
Mintages I would hate to see:
2010 33,000
2011, 32,000
2012 27,000 >>
I think that this all depends on whether they are able and do actually produce a LOT of these next year which would allow them to fill their stated purpose: to serve as a source of silver bullion investing. If they do, given the huge interest in silver investing, I think that they may well catch on an result in HUGE mintages going forward for totally non-numismatic reasons (i.e. their original intention). Will that happen? Who knows of course. I think that it is a very plausible situation. Still, other than the PCGS 69 set which I'm trying to assemble to keep, I'm a sellin' the rest FAST!
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
THANKS!!!!!!!!!! Dirtbag is BLOCKED!!!!
What kind of excuses? The NAD B.S.??
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns?
<< <i>and one more thing with all of this talk about flippers....
I do think that some of the flippers will stick around. I did!
I became interested in Moderns in '06 upon the release of the AGE 20th Anniv. set. I had no intrinsic interest in moderns, and only a minimal interest in any aspect of numismatics. My only interest was flipping.
In the course of doing my due diligence and holding some of these issues for a while, I developed a linking of many of the issues which I was flipping. I started to going to shows, reading NN and CW - first at Boarders and then subscribed, I joined the ANA, started reading The Numismatist, reading books on numismatics and so on.
A year later - while arranging a flip with another Ebayer - he turned me onto this forum where I've been ever since.
Now I collect and flip. I read about numismatics constantly, never miss a Balto. show, go to local shows, and view the collections at The Smithsonian and the DeWitt Wallace Museum at every opportunity.
Numismatics has become a welcome distraction in my life as well as a nice source of flipping income. On top of that, I've learned a great deal about U.S. and World History from the hobby.
I've kept some of my favorite moderns and flipped plenty of others. Much of the proceeds have gone towards classics, Colonials and some nice, high-grade notes (Buffalo, Chief, Educationals, etc.).
My point in going through my introduction and progression in numismatics is that I think that mine is a common story. I think that moderns and the flipping of moderns has brought a LOT of new collectors and money to the hobby.
I'll stop now :-) >>
The '06 experience brought in a lot of us who turned out to be long term members. I made a ton of money in 06/07...then this hobby has cost me a fortune since then
Two, three, five, seven years from now, I think I'd rather have them.
Here's to ebay buyer dissatisfaction!!!!
Perfect feedback with a real auction and a history of coin sales.
The others recent auctions have minimal records of coin sales and questionable recent feedback.
Times they are a changin'.
Miles
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<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings "
It may be me but why would someone pay that kind of money for these coins when he can get a set so much cheaper if he just puts a little effort into it. We here on the boards are so much better off because we pay attention.
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<< <i>
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Thanks for the heads up guys!!!
I'm in for several ATB sets & have already sold one on eBay for a very nice profit. I have every intention of selling a set or two more to pay for the two sets I'm adding to my collection and passing on to my boys someday. It isn't the first and certainly won't be the last time I flip a couple sets to get the ones I want free. Although I feel bad there may be some collectors that have been unable to get the coins they wanted, they each had exactly the same opportunity I did to get a set.
100% zero remorse here.
<go ahead,,,,, flame away>
Just 'cuz it's a cool number
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>It may be me but why would someone pay that kind of money for these coins when he can get a set so much cheaper if he just puts a little effort into it. We here on the boards are so much better off because we pay attention. >>
My guess is that this guy found out that Amark was selling last night for half of what he bought my set for. He wanted to cancel my transaction today, so that's probably what is going on. No more presales for me. I could fight this thing as he is obligated under contract, but as we've discussed on here before, he could just get the coins and complain that they weren't advertised correctly and paypal and ebay usuallly sides with the buyer.
<< <i>
<< <i>and one more thing with all of this talk about flippers....
I do think that some of the flippers will stick around. I did!
I became interested in Moderns in '06 upon the release of the AGE 20th Anniv. set. I had no intrinsic interest in moderns, and only a minimal interest in any aspect of numismatics. My only interest was flipping.
In the course of doing my due diligence and holding some of these issues for a while, I developed a linking of many of the issues which I was flipping. I started to going to shows, reading NN and CW - first at Boarders and then subscribed, I joined the ANA, started reading The Numismatist, reading books on numismatics and so on.
A year later - while arranging a flip with another Ebayer - he turned me onto this forum where I've been ever since.
Now I collect and flip. I read about numismatics constantly, never miss a Balto. show, go to local shows, and view the collections at The Smithsonian and the DeWitt Wallace Museum at every opportunity.
Numismatics has become a welcome distraction in my life as well as a nice source of flipping income. On top of that, I've learned a great deal about U.S. and World History from the hobby.
I've kept some of my favorite moderns and flipped plenty of others. Much of the proceeds have gone towards classics, Colonials and some nice, high-grade notes (Buffalo, Chief, Educationals, etc.).
My point in going through my introduction and progression in numismatics is that I think that mine is a common story. I think that moderns and the flipping of moderns has brought a LOT of new collectors and money to the hobby.
I'll stop now :-) >>
The '06 experience brought in a lot of us who turned out to be long term members. I made a ton of money in 06/07...then this hobby has cost me a fortune since then >>
How about '08. That was an AMAZING year. I'd bet that future modern collectors will say "If only I were in this in '08..." There may not be another like it for decades.
<< <i>This is the one to watch for a Sealed MTB Set.
Perfect feedback with a real auction and a history of coin sales.
The others recent auctions have minimal records of coin sales and questionable recent feedback.
Times they are a changin'.
Miles >>
Indeed they are but Miles, as to Sealed Set sales U Da' MON - big time!!!
I can't believe that it was just weeks ago that you got $3800 for one, only to be outdone by a $4K sealed box sale a while later. Changin' indeed!!
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<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition. >>
I think a real problem that could turn up would be people cherrypicking ebay auctions of raw coins and then returning the auction with his or her supply of lesser quality coins. Can you imagine how hard it would be to prove that happened? I think that no returns is the only way to go for raw coins. But a seller better be ready for a long drawn out fight through ebay resolution. I chose to just refund the money, but only because I hadn't sent the coins yet.
<< <i>"If they crank out the 2011 and 2012 bullion pucks in great numbers [say 100k each or higher], the 2010 will probably rise substantially."
What happens if they produce LOWER numbers in the subsequent years? Isn't that what they did with those 2007 Washington First Day Covers and the subsequent issues?
Wondercoin >>
Methinks there is a slight difference with the pucks....The FDC's mintage was reduced because the interest declined and they were not selling out....I can't really say that there is little interest in this issue
If they made less, it would just be a new frenzy
But I do think they will max out at 100,000 pucks/year which would be 50k of each. This was their original plan (100k) but they neglected to mention the mintage would be a total for 2 different issues.
Time will tell.....
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<< <i>
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition. >>
There have been scumbag sellers too. One guy here cancelled three completed auction and re-listed for more money. The greed works both ways.
Investment potential depends heavily on how bad these things milk spot. Take 25% off the price of silver, and toss in a mild tendency to spot... what do you have?
<< <i>The race to the bottom is on lol I will keep my sets, not interested on giving them away. Heck I might pick me a sealed box or two when they hit 1k >>
At some point dealers will step in with wholesale buy/sell spreads. I think these will sell pretty well all year because many potential buyers are sidelined waiting for what they think is the right time to buy. I would not be surprised to see a V shaped pricing chart on these for the year, but it's very unlikely they will ever bounce back to the "pre-sale" levels we saw several weeks ago.
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
What collectors like to see is a nice even distribution among real collectors, the larger percentage putting them back, and some trading to develop a two way market. In this fashion, a nice upward trend develops, and usually does better with time, as more and more of the "market sets" get put back by an expanding collector base.
My opinion of these bullion pucks is they are dominated by the FLIPPERS. Probably upwards of 70%+ of available quantities. This is the classic PUMP and DUMP. I think much of the PUMPING is indirectly by the AP's, who under the guise (my opinion) of interpreting the rules, delayed the release to the public, in an orderly fashion, to allow the fenzy in pricing to take hold.
This was further exacerbated by FLIPPERS unfairly categorizing these in the same class as 95W Prf ASE's (where nowhere near the collector base exists in these pucks, not even 5% of the ASE collector base) to aid in selling for the highest price possible on the retail market.
IMO, we are in for a very hard fall. Once the under cutting frenzy begins on ebay, it's ruthless. First it's auction style starting price undercutting, then it's the .99 start auctions, then it's one day auctions to jump the seemingly endless list of items that grows daily.
I understand many of you may want to keep one or two sets, but I would also guess most of you that have secured many more than one through friends and family across multiple AP's are looking to unload. So are thousands of other FLIPPERS.
Good Luck to all. This is a great hobby, keep a set, stay a while. We certainly dont want to replicate the MIB toy market or Baseball Card scene here with Moderns. I fear that after looking at many sellers of ATB sets feedback, that's where they have been......oh well.
Great post, 7/8. As an investor, I simply have to shake my head and marvel at the mindless participation by those who don't know what they are buying and selling. I was just reading in ericj's book again this morning, and I was reflecting on his suggestion that Modern Bullion is a great way to limit your risk while mining for the new Keys.
This really IS a classic PUMP & DUMP. I will be laughing quite a bit as prices drop through the floor, which is kind of ironic since I haven't even received a single set myself yet. I wanted at least 3 of these sets originally, and it looks like I'm going to get at least those 3 sets. As I pointed out once already, there will be quite a few flippers who get disappointed and quite a few new collectors of these who get burned and never come back as a result.
The sleazy behavior of Apmex, and especially Gold Center along with the stealth back-door antics of some of the others and the in-your-face-don't bother calling us Jack Hunts of the AP world will leave a bad taste for many. And the flipping frenzy on ebay will set up an even bigger fiasco in the making for the 2011 issues, which WILL be overproduced and oversold. And remember, we haven't even begun to see what will happen when the Mint gets directly involved with their own "collector issue". What a mess this is!
My initiation into Mint fiascos was 1995. I had been buying 15 Proof Silver Eagles every year until Phillip Deihl decided to screw the faithful by only offering the 1995-W Proof with the expensive Proof AGE set. That was the last time I ever bought a Proof ASE until this year (when I bought one as a baby gift).
I learned my lesson that year. Ever since, I have followed jmski's "Special Rule of Mint Fiascos". The rule goes something like this, "if the Mint screws up badly and the whole thing stinks, because of pricing, unfairness in distribution, insider deals, Congressional stupidity or Mint ineptitude - BE SURE to hold your nose and DOUBLE DOWN."
This is somewhat different from jmski's standard rule of "Thoughtful and Selective Investing in Modern Bullion", which certainly has it's own merits and rewards by carefully monitoring mintages and evaluating potential collector demand.
No, the Special Rule of Mint Fiascos does require clarity and timing. We are well past the clarification phase. Some of the APs made it abundantly clear what kind of deal the ATB Program is. It is a corrupt and mismanaged Mint screwup. Timing is important as well. If you don't have a brother who has part-ownership in an Authorized Mint Distributor, there is only one timing issue, but it isn't "How Fast Can I Flip?" It is "How Long Am I Prepared to Wait?" If you intend to flip your ATB set quickly, you are already too late.
The washout is gonna be ugly, but the long term doesn't look all that bad.
I knew it would happen.
2/3/2011 - America the Beautiful Silver Coin Update
We continue to process orders for the ATB program. Unfortunately, many people attempted to circumvent the 1 set per household policy. This has slowed down our review and compliance process because we must check all possible permutations of name, address, etc. However, we remain dedicated to distributing the coins as broadly and as quickly as possible. We will not cash checks unless the corresponding order is accepted. We will send individual emails confirming a) receipt of orders, b) acceptance of orders and c) shipment of orders. Regarding packaging, the coins have been a) carefully removed from the original mint boxes and tubes (we use soft gloves and non-abrasive surfaces), b) individually placed in small bubble-wrap envelopes, c) the set placed in a fiberboard envelope, and d) the envelope sealed in a FedEx Bubble Pak. We expect to begin shipping via FedEx Express Saver service in the first half of February.
We thank you for your business and patience.
FideliTrade Incorporated
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<< <i>
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<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
Thanks for sharing, Blocked! Did you advertise no returns? >>
Yeah, i'm getting burned by this guy as well. He paid, but now wants to cancel due to fincancial hardships. I listed as no returns, but I haven't sent the coins yet and figure its just easier to cancel the whole thing and refund the guys money. Definately block this guy " terethings " >>
Two on the forum burned by the same scumbag!! Ebay should can this turkey!
It's such utter B.S. as well as a tremendous disservice to the entire Ebay community that neg. feedback can't be left for even the WORST of "buyers". As someone said, Ebay REALLY needs some competition. >>
There have been scumbag sellers too. One guy here cancelled three completed auction and re-listed for more money. The greed works both ways. >>
St least you can neg. A seller to warn others...
<< <i>just a heads up if u are selling a set u may want to block terethings as he backed out of buying my set h paid and now is making excuses to get his money back even though he is still buying more items as of today >>
terethings bought my pre-sale Fidelitrade ATB's. Paid promptly. I've decided that I will not offer any refunds no matter what. If that means closing my ebay account, so be it. My auction ended 1/26/11. Paid $1802. What they pay for yours and was yours FT?
That set was a gift. Ironic that you stopped buying there and surprising how you characterize it now.
My opinion is, by the time they get the lipstick on their pigs and get them ready for market, (fancy box, coa, special die treatment etc. etc.) the original price that the 2010 bullions were sold for will look like a real deal.
<< <i>By the time the mint gets their "P" collectors version on the market, I think the 2010 bullion version that was purchased from an orginial AP will look like a bargin. The mint was fast to put price controls on the APs, but we will see if they will play by the same rules.
They will probably stick to the usual margins for silver-maybe a tad more but I am sure there will be a one per household limit on these after what they put the AP's through.
I agree with you completely on that one. I am going to hold on to my 2 sets as I really feel the price on these will go back up a year from now. The silver content alone makes it worth holding on to and not taking a quick profit now if you are not spending the rent money to buy them in the first place.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.