<< <i>My order from the 22nd: 4 coin set On hold. My order from the 24th: 1/2 ozers IN PROCESS What is going on here? I used same credit card? >>
i placed 2 orders on the 17th, one early in the day and another late at night. i got the second order on the 22nd and the earlier order on the 23rd. i have no idea why they shipped out of order. i don`t know if this is what is happening to you.
I think a stir has been created over numbers that have not been "vetted out"
Before anyone goes ballistic over these numbers, you all have more than 3 weeks to return ANY purchases you made.
Additionally, I would like to see a confirmation of these numbers for the next two weeks, by several sources, to ensure one recipient of info wasnt given incorrect data.
The idea of minting more has no merit. The USM clearly stated they would sell REMAINING STOCK.
The numbers presented by the Office of Public Affairs are SALES NUMBERS. They arent shipped numbers, they arent mintage numbers.
As such, how do we know that they accepted SALES FAR IN EXCESS of available coins, to ensure that the coins they have left are COMPLETELY SOLD?
Two things SMELL VERY FISHY with the reported numbers. The tenth selling another 500 coins when already SOLD OUT, and the quarter selling a whopping 1500 additional coins when already on BACKORDER.
I think someone already mentioned the fact that 2115 could be a total sales number of quarters instead of single coin option. That would make sense. An additional 500 coins in single product option over the 615 (which I think would already have a 15-25% buffer for returns) which would net you at around 900 single issue coins.....that smells right.
I will say that the UNC-W's still have the very real possibility of being short run smaller than 06-w mintages. The proofs I wouldnt even take a shot on. The proofs were available earlier then the UNC's, the USM had more production time and they generally sell better.
Until we hear the next set of numbers, i'm holding tight.
<< <i>400 - Whoa! I've never been able to do "the post count thing" before!
Sales figures creeping up on the '06 w uncs. Time to return.
You might want to check Eric's thread. Big changes in the mintages. >>
Jmski: I have a great deal of respect for Eric & did view his post. The figures are suspect for a number of reasons, and , I believe are sales figures, not mintages. That said, it may be wise to hold tight & wait it out, however for the squeamish its time to return. Eric's the most credible guy you'll come across.
This is just an observation and I hope I'm wrong....
I ordered 30 of the 1/4 oz unc on the morning of the 22nd, it seems to me that they should have pulled the plug on these on the 23rd at the latest..if they were only selling off what was on hand...........with the new stats if they are correct,
it could mean that they are going to do a small run of these to fill the orders......who knows, maybe they had the planchets sitting there...
I hope I'm wrong, and if I had any of these in hand I would hold them til the final day that I could return them.........JMO
Any revised thinking on overall mintages based on this new info?
First, I'm glad the $25s have finally gone dark -- I suspect they should have been "not available" all along, and am no fan of the Mint's backorder listing, which seems to be used inconsistently.
I personally don't have a change in thought on mintages at this point; I think the most conservative approach dictates using the reported sales mintages as the starting point, and adding in a quantity to account for coins in a guess as to available 4 coin sets. The reported sales figures could be adjusted, and a few people, including 7over8 and Eric, have expressed strong doubts as to the accuracy of the reported number.
Since the $25s are now listed as unavailable, I expect that some people who were waiting on the sidelines to return might rethink things and decide that they are worth holding on to. Even at the high end of expected numbers -- say that the individual sales figures ARE accurate. That means 2138 plus 1191 sets=3329. Let's further guess that the total set figures will end up at 2,000 (there were 453 sold through June, so that would put the stock at about 1500 - slightly higher than the 1,000 we were originally expecting). That would put $25 mintage at about 4,100. That's a high number in relation to the other platinum w unc. $25s, so kills some of the buzz for a flip, although it does NOT make them bad coins -- 1/4 oz of platinum for $320, with a melt of slightly over $200, and a mintage which puts it safely in the low end of the modern spectrum.
Let's also guess that the 2138 figure is wrong. As of June, there were only about 200 single $25 sold. How many were sold once sales reopened? What's a good number to guess at? well, it certainly would depend on available coins, and we don't know what those were. We do know that about 1712 $10s were in stock and sold to reach "no longer available". $10s were starting with 712 sold as of June. Typically, there are more $10s sold than $25s, and if the Mint made them with that in mind, and the $10 individual coins were capped at 2,500... I don't think it's unreasonable for the $25s to have a number of 2,000. But still, there is some logic to the argument that this number is too high. It took 3 days to sell out 1700 $10 coins with an issue price of $135. And that was with a few people reporting bulk purchases which amounted to several hundred coins. $25s were on backorder within 10 days or so. Was there sufficient flipper demand to sell that 1900 $25s at $320? I'm not aware of any individuals engaged in bulk $25 purchases at the levels spoken about on the $10s. So on the low end, let's argue that the $25 sales figure is significantly lower, say 1,200 total (200 in initial sales, another 1,000 after Oct. 17). Add in the 2,000 sets (which again, is just a guess). So we'd be at 3200.
Historically - if you can use that term for a coin with a 2 year history- we're looking at a range of 2676 on the low for 2006w, and 3,829 on the high for 2007w, so 3200 would put it squarely between them.
That would mesh with the $10 expected numbers-- 2006 w was 3,544 and 2007w was 5,992 -- assuming 2008w $10 comes in at 4,000, we're between those poles, closer to 2006w.
Anyway, my expectation is only that the $25s will end up as low as 3,000 and as high as 4,000. That's a big range, but there's too many estimates and guesses here to have pinpoint accuracy. I don't expect 2008w $25s will be lower than 2006w. I think 2008w $25s have a reasonable shot at finishing lower than 2007w.
"Anyway, my expectation is only that the $25s will end up as low as 3,000 and as high as 4,000. That's a big range, but there's too many estimates and guesses here to have pinpoint accuracy. I don't expect 2008w $25s will be lower than 2006w. I think 2008w $25s have a reasonable shot at finishing lower than 2007w. >>
We have the latest platinum figures from David Harper NN.
The first number represents the sales for that coin/set. The bracketed number [xxx] is the sales of that denomination prior to Oct. 17 (to show how many have been sold since sales reopened). The number + x shows the sales for that denomination since October 17. The parenthetical number shows the total of that denomination sold as of present (total of indivdidual coins sold plus the number in 4 coin sets).
2008 Unc W platinum type: now... July.. change...total with set $100: 393...[146]... +247.... (1584) $50: 802.....[126]... +676.....(1993) $25: 2138... [198].. +1940... (3329) $10: 2500...[708] ...+1792....(3691) Set: 1191....[453]... +1148
2008 Proof Platinum type: now... July...change..total with set $100:1560..[1222]... +338..(2950) $50: 781.....[682].....+99.....(2171) $25: 1025....[628].....+397...(2415) $10: 2224....[1255]...+969...(3614) Set: 1390.....[759].....+631
Comparing proofs to unc-ws, we're seeing that unc-w coins are selling more rapidly than the proofs across the board.
Note this: the $10 proof coins have sold 969, while $25 proofs have sold 397. A little more than 2:1, which is roughly in line with the price difference.
Again, we might expect similar numbers in the unc $25 w figures, though we would also expect that the $25s would pop once the $10s were no longer available. Still, the $25 w unc figure sticks out as being higher than we'd expect to see when compared with prior mintages.
For comparison, here are the total numbers for 2006 and 2007 w unc: ........ 2006......2007 $100: 3068....4025 $50: 2577....3888 $25: 2676....3829 $10: 3544....5992
The past trend for uncirculateds, if 2 years can make a trend, is for $25 and $50 to be close, with a couple of hundred additional $100s, and a significantly higher number of $10s.
I'm also a bit surprised that platinum proof $50 sales are so low. Anyway, overall, the proofs seem to be adhering to an expected distribution. More $10s, with $25s and $50s roughly in line with one another, with $25s slightly higher than $50s.
<< <i>..........The past trend for uncirculateds, if 2 years can make a trend, is for $25 and $50 to be close, with a couple of hundred additional $100s, and a significantly higher number of $10s. >>
That is what we can expect this year too which would make the 25's sales # inaccurate which has been mentioned already. They will probably end up in the 2500-3000 range. The 1500 sales # for the first week back on sale is obviously incorrect and was probably 500. If we subract 1000 from current fogures it will make the # more consistent % wise with prior years.
Have no idea where Eric J gets his information but he said the 4 coin sets were under struck. 2,000 sets would not be under struck.
Sometimes rumors are wrong. Eric gives us the best information he has, and he gets it right more often than not. 2,000 sets is only a guess. It could be 1500. None of us knows what the total set number will be.
What I want to see is when they go dark if they become unavailable or back ordered. If they go back ordered it will mean they are minting more and it's time to bail. Until then we have an almost free 30 day plus option.
I went back, and sure enough, Eric was pretty clear that it was based on a rumor, not a sure thing. Here is what he said:link
Wednesday October 22, 2008 1:05 PM
OK guys this is the Latest data I could find.
This is the weeks sales report for 10/21/2008 and was tabulated late in the day according to the mint. I asked if these numbers more than likely included sales through noon and they said that they more than likely did. The numbers were run late......for what thats worth.
Now guys we don't know for certain how many 4 coin sets were made but we do know that the material cost was $4000 per set and the material price risk was great and was perceived as such by the mint decision makers. The number of Unc plats may have been influenced further by the almost non existent sales of the proof plats for the two months prior to the unc coming to market. I have been told the 4 coin set inventory was BADLY short struck (<1000) but I have no way of confirming this.
You guys know all I know now and we will all have to make our own call. Either the 4 coin set was low or it was not. If it was in fact short struck then you are looking at coins with mintages that are nothing short of amazing and it will be very nice to have some in your collection for 40 percent over melt. If they had a more normal 2000 coin run then you are looking a price and economy induced low mintage year in the high 2006 "w" class.
Comments
<< <i>My order from the 22nd: 4 coin set On hold.
My order from the 24th: 1/2 ozers IN PROCESS
What is going on here? I used same credit card? >>
i placed 2 orders on the 17th, one early in the day and another late at night. i got the second order on the 22nd and the earlier order on the 23rd. i have no idea why they shipped out of order. i don`t know if this is what is happening to you.
I think a stir has been created over numbers that have not been "vetted out"
Before anyone goes ballistic over these numbers, you all have more than 3 weeks to return ANY purchases you made.
Additionally, I would like to see a confirmation of these numbers for the next two weeks, by several sources, to ensure one recipient of info wasnt given incorrect data.
The idea of minting more has no merit. The USM clearly stated they would sell REMAINING STOCK.
The numbers presented by the Office of Public Affairs are SALES NUMBERS. They arent shipped numbers, they arent mintage numbers.
As such, how do we know that they accepted SALES FAR IN EXCESS of available coins, to ensure that the coins they have left are COMPLETELY SOLD?
Two things SMELL VERY FISHY with the reported numbers. The tenth selling another 500 coins when already SOLD OUT, and the quarter selling a whopping 1500 additional coins when already on BACKORDER.
I think someone already mentioned the fact that 2115 could be a total sales number of quarters instead of single coin option. That would make sense. An additional 500 coins in single product option over the 615 (which I think would already have a 15-25% buffer for returns) which would net you at around 900 single issue coins.....that smells right.
I will say that the UNC-W's still have the very real possibility of being short run smaller than 06-w mintages. The proofs I wouldnt even take a shot on. The proofs were available earlier then the UNC's, the USM had more production time and they generally sell better.
Until we hear the next set of numbers, i'm holding tight.
<< <i>400 - Whoa! I've never been able to do "the post count thing" before!
Sales figures creeping up on the '06 w uncs. Time to return.
You might want to check Eric's thread. Big changes in the mintages. >>
Jmski: I have a great deal of respect for Eric & did view his post. The figures are suspect for a number of reasons, and , I believe are sales figures, not mintages.
That said, it may be wise to hold tight & wait it out, however for the squeamish its time to return. Eric's the most credible guy you'll come across.
This is just an observation and I hope I'm wrong....
I ordered 30 of the 1/4 oz unc on the morning of the 22nd, it seems to me that they should have pulled the plug on these on the 23rd at the latest..if they were only selling off what was on hand...........with the new stats if they are correct,
it could mean that they are going to do a small run of these to fill the orders......who knows, maybe they had the planchets sitting there...
I hope I'm wrong, and if I had any of these in hand I would hold them til the final day that I could return them.........JMO
the 1/10 Unc singles are under the No Longer Available tab on the Mint website. That makes it official.
no longer available
<<1/4 are gone on the US mint website 1/2 is next >>
Any revised thinking on overall mintages based on this new info?
First, I'm glad the $25s have finally gone dark -- I suspect they should have been "not available" all along, and am no fan of the Mint's backorder listing, which seems to be used inconsistently.
I personally don't have a change in thought on mintages at this point; I think the most conservative approach dictates using the reported sales mintages as the starting point, and adding in a quantity to account for coins in a guess as to available 4 coin sets. The reported sales figures could be adjusted, and a few people, including 7over8 and Eric, have expressed strong doubts as to the accuracy of the reported number.
Since the $25s are now listed as unavailable, I expect that some people who were waiting on the sidelines to return might rethink things and decide that they are worth holding on to. Even at the high end of expected numbers -- say that the individual sales figures ARE accurate. That means 2138 plus 1191 sets=3329. Let's further guess that the total set figures will end up at 2,000 (there were 453 sold through June, so that would put the stock at about 1500 - slightly higher than the 1,000 we were originally expecting). That would put $25 mintage at about 4,100. That's a high number in relation to the other platinum w unc. $25s, so kills some of the buzz for a flip, although it does NOT make them bad coins -- 1/4 oz of platinum for $320, with a melt of slightly over $200, and a mintage which puts it safely in the low end of the modern spectrum.
Let's also guess that the 2138 figure is wrong. As of June, there were only about 200 single $25 sold. How many were sold once sales reopened? What's a good number to guess at? well, it certainly would depend on available coins, and we don't know what those were. We do know that about 1712 $10s were in stock and sold to reach "no longer available". $10s were starting with 712 sold as of June. Typically, there are more $10s sold than $25s, and if the Mint made them with that in mind, and the $10 individual coins were capped at 2,500... I don't think it's unreasonable for the $25s to have a number of 2,000. But still, there is some logic to the argument that this number is too high. It took 3 days to sell out 1700 $10 coins with an issue price of $135. And that was with a few people reporting bulk purchases which amounted to several hundred coins. $25s were on backorder within 10 days or so. Was there sufficient flipper demand to sell that 1900 $25s at $320? I'm not aware of any individuals engaged in bulk $25 purchases at the levels spoken about on the $10s. So on the low end, let's argue that the $25 sales figure is significantly lower, say 1,200 total (200 in initial sales, another 1,000 after Oct. 17). Add in the 2,000 sets (which again, is just a guess). So we'd be at 3200.
Historically - if you can use that term for a coin with a 2 year history- we're looking at a range of 2676 on the low for 2006w, and 3,829 on the high for 2007w, so 3200 would put it squarely between them.
That would mesh with the $10 expected numbers-- 2006 w was 3,544 and 2007w was 5,992 -- assuming 2008w $10 comes in at 4,000, we're between those poles, closer to 2006w.
Anyway, my expectation is only that the $25s will end up as low as 3,000 and as high as 4,000. That's a big range, but there's too many estimates and guesses here to have pinpoint accuracy. I don't expect 2008w $25s will be lower than 2006w. I think 2008w $25s have a reasonable shot at finishing lower than 2007w.
The first number represents the sales for that coin/set. The bracketed number [xxx] is the sales of that denomination prior to Oct. 17 (to show how many have been sold since sales reopened). The number + x shows the sales for that denomination since October 17. The parenthetical number shows the total of that denomination sold as of present (total of indivdidual coins sold plus the number in 4 coin sets).
2008 Unc W platinum
type: now... July.. change...total with set
$100: 393...[146]... +247.... (1584)
$50: 802.....[126]... +676.....(1993)
$25: 2138... [198].. +1940... (3329)
$10: 2500...[708] ...+1792....(3691)
Set: 1191....[453]... +1148
2008 Proof Platinum
type: now... July...change..total with set
$100:1560..[1222]... +338..(2950)
$50: 781.....[682].....+99.....(2171)
$25: 1025....[628].....+397...(2415)
$10: 2224....[1255]...+969...(3614)
Set: 1390.....[759].....+631
Comparing proofs to unc-ws, we're seeing that unc-w coins are selling more rapidly than the proofs across the board.
Note this: the $10 proof coins have sold 969, while $25 proofs have sold 397. A little more than 2:1, which is roughly in line with the price difference.
Again, we might expect similar numbers in the unc $25 w figures, though we would also expect that the $25s would pop once the $10s were no longer available. Still, the $25 w unc figure sticks out as being higher than we'd expect to see when compared with prior mintages.
For comparison, here are the total numbers for 2006 and 2007 w unc:
........ 2006......2007
$100: 3068....4025
$50: 2577....3888
$25: 2676....3829
$10: 3544....5992
The past trend for uncirculateds, if 2 years can make a trend, is for $25 and $50 to be close, with a couple of hundred additional $100s, and a significantly higher number of $10s.
I'm also a bit surprised that platinum proof $50 sales are so low. Anyway, overall, the proofs seem to be adhering to an expected distribution. More $10s, with $25s and $50s roughly in line with one another, with $25s slightly higher than $50s.
<< <i>..........The past trend for uncirculateds, if 2 years can make a trend, is for $25 and $50 to be close, with a couple of hundred additional $100s, and a significantly higher number of $10s. >>
That is what we can expect this year too which would make the 25's sales # inaccurate which has been mentioned already. They will probably end up in the 2500-3000 range. The 1500 sales # for the first week back on sale is obviously incorrect and was probably 500. If we subract 1000 from current fogures it will make the # more consistent % wise with prior years.
Joe
Buying top quality Seated Dimes in Gem BU and Proof.
Buying great coins - monster eye appeal only.
As of 11-6
Sometimes rumors are wrong. Eric gives us the best information he has, and he gets it right more often than not. 2,000 sets is only a guess. It could be 1500. None of us knows what the total set number will be.
What I want to see is when they go dark if they become unavailable or back ordered. If they go back ordered it will mean they are minting more and it's time to bail. Until then we have an almost free 30 day plus option.
I went back, and sure enough, Eric was pretty clear that it was based on a rumor, not a sure thing. Here is what he said:link
Wednesday October 22, 2008 1:05 PM
OK guys this is the Latest data I could find.
This is the weeks sales report for 10/21/2008 and was tabulated late in the day according to the mint. I asked if these numbers more than likely included sales through noon and they said that they more than likely did. The numbers were run late......for what thats worth.
UNC "W" PLATINUM EAGLES
$100...213
$50...292
$25...615 closed
$10...2046 closed
4 coin sets ...668
Now guys we don't know for certain how many 4 coin sets were made but we do know that the material cost was $4000 per set and the material price risk was great and was perceived as such by the mint decision makers. The number of Unc plats may have been influenced further by the almost non existent sales of the proof plats for the two months prior to the unc coming to market. I have been told the 4 coin set inventory was BADLY short struck (<1000) but I have no way of confirming this.
You guys know all I know now and we will all have to make our own call. Either the 4 coin set was low or it was not. If it was in fact short struck then you are looking at coins with mintages that are nothing short of amazing and it will be very nice to have some in your collection for 40 percent over melt. If they had a more normal 2000 coin run then you are looking a price and economy induced low mintage year in the high 2006 "w" class.
Thats the best I can do for you guys.
Best Wishes,
Ericj96