Sales numbers are useless. Those sales numbers are cr&p.
I still can't believe anyone really paying attention to those. Once the cat is out of the bag with how the PLAT UNC numbers are so skewed to the upside, most will lose faith in that report for good.
For today and tomorrow, my focus is on getting my one UHR $20.
Look at the price relationship between the 94P morgan at 110k and the 93s at 100k, pretty substantial diff in pricing, huh?
There can only be one King. >>
That example doesn't prove anything, first off you are talking about a difference of possibly 10,000 coins vs. one coin. The morgans are also silver last time I checked, not platinum. Third that is a price difference built over 114 years or more, not one or two years. Fourth the Morgans are an extremely popular coin vs. the plats which are very unpopular.
Sorry, it doesn't add up to a comparison.
The modern commemoratives are a closer comparison and based on those a one coin difference isn't worth a hill of beans even though they are silver but the keys are unpopular.
So to summarize a thousand coin difference in the unc plats is enough of a key to be good based on percentages but not a one coin difference.
PS Based on your example if a coin being king was solely the price driver then the wheelchair dollar would sell for $5000, but doesn't even sell for 1/10 of that. Sorry Charlie.
If the numbers are so bad then why is everyone using them for the buffalo coins and plat proofs? I haven't heard anyone complain about those numbers and they seem to be accepted here, yet the unc plats are questioned?
I think those numbers are all we have and are all we have ever had. 7/8 you seem to trust the numbers yourself by accepting them as accurate for orders. You say they will drop over 900 coins or more based on the published numbers.
You are trusting the numbers like everyone else.
While it is possible the numbers drop from here, it is also slightly possible they go up. Anything is possible, but what are the chances?
1 coin less Half. Did you hear it. Let me repeat myself.
1 coin less is the new King.
And my comparison to the 94P and 93S Morgan is VERY VALID. It shows the POWER of the Key. Semi-Keys are NOT as STRONG as the Keys.
Keys are not determined by 50, 100, 1000 coins less; they are determined by as little as 1 coin less. This is a series. PLAT UNC W's are a short set. The Key can demand a big premium with as little as 1 coin less in mintage.
Key, King, whatever you want to call it.
Your comparison is a set of commemoratives. Each coin is stand alone. Same anomolies happen in the classic commem half series. Not a good choice.
So Half, how long you been in this? 5 years? Did you graduate from collecting cards? Be honest.......
Look up the wheelchair dollar commemorative, that is all I have to say. If a king means massive appreciation then it isn't happening and that coin is over 12 years old. If we all plan to live for 114 more years then yes the Morgans could matter but I think we need to be realistic.
Sure a coin one coin lower than all the rest can be called a king, but it is a weak king at best as that silver commemorative shows.
You are ignoring factual evidence of cancelled orders, orders of known parties never filled that were incrementally placed after b/o time, yet the tally of orders taken skyrocketed.
Why the USM has done what I believe they have done is the big question. Could it have been ordering in big blocks, meaning most coins sold to few parties and the fear of having to re-sell those if they were returned? If the ordering was placed by a wider distribution of buyers, would they have taken so many orders beyond b/o?
All series - Plat Prfs, Gold Buff Prf and Unc, Gold Eagle Prf and Unc, Silver Unc, seem to be at ULTRA low numbers. So low, they are new keys.
For anyone to believe that the Plat Unc's are any different - is the biggest stretch of all.
Sometimes, the big coin, with lots of intrinsic value, like the $100 PLATS, get melted because of the meteoric rise in metal prices.
Usually, many years later, you regret it.
If you were around and witnessed the PM price explosion in 1979/1980, do you know how many treasures hit the melting pot?
I do. I was there. I worked for a PM dealer. I bought coins, bars, relics from guys on the line that stretched around the block. It was a shame what went into the pot.
All series - Plat Prfs, Gold Buff Prf and Unc, Gold Eagle Prf and Unc, Silver Unc, seem to be at ULTRA low numbers. So low, they are new keys.
7/8 >>
The gold eagle proof are hardly ULTRA LOW numbers, and as far as the gold eagle unc go we don't have any at backorder yet so that is too soon to call.
Let's not forget that as gold and platinum prices rise mintages generally fall, so it is possible in future years mintages for continuing series fall under 2008 levels. That is why i recommended the coins in closed series.
They are finished and it is easy enough to see their potential.
Remember when the first spouse coins came out many speculated the mintages were historically low and now look at how wrong that was. It is impossible to predict future mintages due to many variables.
Sometimes, the big coin, with lots of intrinsic value, like the $100 PLATS, get melted because of the meteoric rise in metal prices.
Usually, many years later, you regret it.
>>
But melting does affect what the market considers to be a key coin. If enough 2006 were melted then the 2008 will have to drop that much more eventually.
A one coin difference may not be what you hope it is.
I'm willing to put my $ where my mouth is, and honestly, the outcome of the 2008 versus 2006 won't impact me; if one goes up some, the other should come down some, all the same to me.
Heck, I'll take the cold beer in June.
We can take a picture of the loser paying and post it on this thread.
But melting does affect what the market considers to be a key coin. If enough 2006 were melted then the 2008 will have to drop that much more eventually.
A one coin difference may not be what you hope it is.
A one coin difference would be a very unlikely outcome, effectively a tie. I'm not sure that the market would recognize a difference of less than 100 coins as significant.
<< <i>I am not the big gambling man that NYC is - and it might not be fair given I could have more info than he does but - I have faith in this call - and so do others here that remain quiet....I won't call them out, they like to remain nameless and watch.... however, I will wager a cold beer at a cheap bar in NYC's Financial District (WFC) on a hot day in June......how's that? >>
Get that Concealed Firearms Permit updated first, Dan ;>
Everyone knows there are no cheap Bars in the WFC !
One more thing on this issue of what year will be king. If by some variable say they the 2011 platinum coins are only produced in amounts of say 2000 coins per denomination for the bullion coins then those would probably be considered the new kings over the 2006 or 2008 w unc. I don't think the market will separate the plats like many here are, they could all be considered part of the same series. Some will only collect the w unc plats but some will collect all as well, and how the prices reflect things could be different than some here wish.
So if say platinum ran up to $5000 an ounce and the mint cut off production at 2000 coins everything could change with the unc plats.
The proof plats in fractionals though sound like a done deal.
I know a lot of people purchase these platinum coins for the precious metal content and will sell for melt to trade in them as we have seen in the past. Just something for people to consider is all, I own the plats myself but just try to keep things realistic.
Also as far as I can tell no 2009 platinum bullion coins have yet been struck in any denomination and may not until later in the year which is very odd. Yes they ran out of blanks but still you would think they could muster up a few to start things off...
7over8: You are perfectly hedged holding those 08w kings for potential losses on those 06w's
I deliberately purchased to hedge my position. No matter the outcome, I'm not concerned about losing on coins with mintages under 4,000.
Halfstrike: So if say platinum ran up to $5000 an ounce and the mint cut off production at 2000 coins everything could change with the unc plats. The proof plats in fractionals though sound like a done deal.
I don't consider the 2006w-2008w platinum uncirculateds to be part of the non-w bullion strike coins. Not because of the burnished finish or even the w mintmark, but because of the different reverse designs-- and not just a different reverse, but part of a 3 coin theme based on our tripartate system of government. They're as distinct from the regular bullion coins as the proofs are, at least the way I see it.
The quarters also have changing reverses in later years but none of those are considered the key coin for the entire series. It could be the lowest of 2006 or 2008 would be a semi-key and the absolute lowest the overall key.
I still think there is a chance of something like this happening BTW, who would have guessed after 2006 that we had all these 2008 key coins assuming the mint holds to its promise?
Platinum prices over $2500 an ounce are hard for many collectors to swallow, if the South African mines shut down in the future nothing is impossible.
I don't consider the 2006w-2008w platinum uncirculateds to be part of the non-w bullion strike coins. Not because of the burnished finish or even the w mintmark, but because of the different reverse designs-- and not just a different reverse, but part of a 3 coin theme based on our tripartate system of government. They're as distinct from the regular bullion coins as the proofs are, at least the way I see it.
Yep, they are closer to the changing reverse proofs than they are to the regular "no mintmark" uncs.
That cannot be said of the "W" Unc AGEs, however. Those fall in nicely with the regular uncs, much like any other series that has more than one mintmark in the series. The 2008-W Unc AGEs may be a nice sleeper, even now.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>So if say platinum ran up to $5000 an ounce and the mint cut off production at 2000 coins everything could change with the unc plats. >>
Ha, if platinum got up to $5000 an ounce, I think the dynamics of everything would change. People would be taking their platinum to the bullion dealer so fast it would make your head spin. In that scenario, mintages would go out the window and it would take awhile to assess the surviving population.
<< <i>if the South African mines shut down in the future nothing is impossible. >>
You are closer than you know to the truth....
The run up in platinum early last year was due to a widely reported power shortage in South Africa, resulting in most platinum mines being shut down. Platinum is mined VERY deep underground (over a mile) and it gets very hot down there. The only way the miners can even survive is to have air conditioning pumped in from the surface. When this couldn't happen, because of the power shortage, the mines had no option but to shut down. Voila...Pt moves from $1400 to $2000+ within a month.
Very different times now. Heck, Crystler wants to GIVE AWAY 35% of itself to Fiat....in exchange for having the right to sell their cars in the US...conditioned upon the TARP giving Crystler another $3 Billion!
Bottom line....Platinum industrial demand is not going to come back for a while. Jewelery demand will be depressed during the ongoing recession. Safe Haven money will flow to Gold, not Platinum. Look for Gold to surpass Platinum very soon.
I'll take your "Gentlemen's Agreement", upon the terms you offered to 7/8, if you sweeten the deal just a little....say, add a 1/10 to your side of the proposition...
Your 1/10 and 1/4, against my 1/4. After all, the odds are in your favor.
>>And my comparison to the 94P and 93S Morgan is VERY VALID. It shows the POWER of the Key. Semi-Keys are NOT as STRONG as the Keys.<<
Morgan mintages are not reliable indicators of rarity because of numerous melts. In his comprehensive 1993 work on silver dollars, Q. David Bowers estimated that fewer than 20,000 survivors remain of each date, and he estimated the 1893S to be about 30% scarcer than the 1894P.
>>If the numbers are so bad then why is everyone using them for the buffalo coins and plat proofs? I haven't heard anyone complain about those numbers and they seem to be accepted here, yet the unc plats are questioned?<<
I think the numbers for the buffalos and the plat proofs could well go down from here. But even if they don't, I believe the current numbers are low enough to make them keys. This is not the case for the 2008 unc. "W" plats.
<< <i> Bottom line....Platinum industrial demand is not going to come back for a while. Jewelery demand will be depressed during the ongoing recession. Safe Haven money will flow to Gold, not Platinum. Look for Gold to surpass Platinum very soon.
FloridaBill >>
Even though I'm a big plat fan, I agree with you here, FB. I just don't see anything driving plat prices significantly up for a while. Good time to complete the collections!
<< <i>All I have to say is the mintages are coming boys -
And those numbers will call into question why anyone would use the order report as an indicator for mintage..... >>
You have to admit that in most cases sales figures and actual mintage values will be within a small percentage of each other, and can therefore be a useful indicator.
The unc AGEs are STILL available. Plus prices may be going up next Thursday due to gold climbing. If the 1 oz shoots up $100 to $1178, that's gonna be hard to move. These might be on sale for a long time.
Sometimes, the big coin, with lots of intrinsic value, like the $100 PLATS, get melted because of the meteoric rise in metal prices.
Usually, many years later, you regret it.
>>
But melting does affect what the market considers to be a key coin. If enough 2006 were melted then the 2008 will have to drop that much more eventually.
A one coin difference may not be what you hope it is. >>
I sent in an a$$load of 2006 w to Kitco when platinum was going for $2200 an ounce. How doe s that figure into the royal lineage? in terms of raw numbers of available coins, the 2006 -w will always be the kings.
Comments
Sales numbers are useless. Those sales numbers are cr&p.
I still can't believe anyone really paying attention to those. Once the cat is out of the bag with how the PLAT UNC numbers are so skewed to the upside, most will lose faith in that report for good.
For today and tomorrow, my focus is on getting my one UHR $20.
<< <i>Half -
1 coin less than 06w and it is King.
Look at the price relationship between the 94P morgan at 110k and the 93s at 100k, pretty substantial diff in pricing, huh?
There can only be one King. >>
That example doesn't prove anything, first off you are talking about a difference of possibly 10,000 coins vs. one coin. The morgans are also silver last time I checked, not platinum. Third that is a price difference built over 114 years or more, not one or two years. Fourth the Morgans are an extremely popular coin vs. the plats which are very unpopular.
Sorry, it doesn't add up to a comparison.
The modern commemoratives are a closer comparison and based on those a one coin difference isn't worth a hill of beans even though they are silver but the keys are unpopular.
So to summarize a thousand coin difference in the unc plats is enough of a key to be good based on percentages but not a one coin difference.
PS Based on your example if a coin being king was solely the price driver then the wheelchair dollar would sell for $5000, but doesn't even sell for 1/10 of that. Sorry Charlie.
but - I have faith in this call - and so do others here that remain quiet....I won't call them out, they like to remain nameless and watch....
however, I will wager a cold beer at a cheap bar in NYC's Financial District (WFC) on a hot day in June......how's that?
<< <i>7over8, any response to the proposed wager? >>
Carol has posted that no wagering is allowed on this site.
I think you substituted the sales report for your Bible. You guys keep reading it like scripture. Not good.
I have a bridge you might want to buy.......
7/8
Just offering , not wagering, a cold beer at a cheap establishment. It's all about who picks up the tab.
And for our purposes 1 coin less is enough to determine the "king".
<< <i>GAT -
Just offering , not wagering, a cold beer at a cheap establishment. It's all about who picks up the tab. >>
Is there such a thing as a cheap bar in NYC? For the start of a poll, I am on 7/8 side. They may not reach the 06 numbers, but they are coming down.
I think those numbers are all we have and are all we have ever had. 7/8 you seem to trust the numbers yourself by accepting them as accurate for orders. You say they will drop over 900 coins or more based on the published numbers.
You are trusting the numbers like everyone else.
While it is possible the numbers drop from here, it is also slightly possible they go up. Anything is possible, but what are the chances?
That is what we are discussing here.
1 coin less Half. Did you hear it. Let me repeat myself.
1 coin less is the new King.
And my comparison to the 94P and 93S Morgan is VERY VALID. It shows the POWER of the Key. Semi-Keys are NOT as STRONG as the Keys.
Keys are not determined by 50, 100, 1000 coins less; they are determined by as little as 1 coin less. This is a series. PLAT UNC W's are a short set. The Key can demand a big premium with as little as 1 coin less in mintage.
Key, King, whatever you want to call it.
Your comparison is a set of commemoratives. Each coin is stand alone. Same anomolies happen in the classic commem half series. Not a good choice.
So Half, how long you been in this? 5 years? Did you graduate from collecting cards? Be honest.......
Sure a coin one coin lower than all the rest can be called a king, but it is a weak king at best as that silver commemorative shows.
Let's not forget some here sold off some "king" plats for melt not too long ago.
You are ignoring factual evidence of cancelled orders, orders of known parties never filled that were incrementally placed after b/o time, yet the tally of orders taken skyrocketed.
Why the USM has done what I believe they have done is the big question. Could it have been ordering in big blocks, meaning most coins sold to few parties and the fear of having to re-sell those if they were returned? If the ordering was placed by a wider distribution of buyers, would they have taken so many orders beyond b/o?
All series - Plat Prfs, Gold Buff Prf and Unc, Gold Eagle Prf and Unc, Silver Unc, seem to be at ULTRA low numbers. So low, they are new keys.
For anyone to believe that the Plat Unc's are any different - is the biggest stretch of all.
7/8
I know they said they would continue the 1 oz Proof in Platinum, but I don't remember about the Buffalo?
Sometimes, the big coin, with lots of intrinsic value, like the $100 PLATS, get melted because of the meteoric rise in metal prices.
Usually, many years later, you regret it.
If you were around and witnessed the PM price explosion in 1979/1980, do you know how many treasures hit the melting pot?
I do. I was there. I worked for a PM dealer. I bought coins, bars, relics from guys on the line that stretched around the block. It was a shame what went into the pot.
<< <i>
All series - Plat Prfs, Gold Buff Prf and Unc, Gold Eagle Prf and Unc, Silver Unc, seem to be at ULTRA low numbers. So low, they are new keys.
7/8 >>
The gold eagle proof are hardly ULTRA LOW numbers, and as far as the gold eagle unc go we don't have any at backorder yet so that is too soon to call.
Let's not forget that as gold and platinum prices rise mintages generally fall, so it is possible in future years mintages for continuing series fall under 2008 levels. That is why i recommended the coins in closed series.
They are finished and it is easy enough to see their potential.
Remember when the first spouse coins came out many speculated the mintages were historically low and now look at how wrong that was. It is impossible to predict future mintages due to many variables.
<< <i>Half -
Sometimes, the big coin, with lots of intrinsic value, like the $100 PLATS, get melted because of the meteoric rise in metal prices.
Usually, many years later, you regret it.
>>
But melting does affect what the market considers to be a key coin. If enough 2006 were melted then the 2008 will have to drop that much more eventually.
A one coin difference may not be what you hope it is.
I'm willing to put my $ where my mouth is, and honestly, the outcome of the 2008 versus 2006 won't impact me; if one goes up some, the other should come down some, all the same to me.
Heck, I'll take the cold beer in June.
We can take a picture of the loser paying and post it on this thread.
A one coin difference may not be what you hope it is.
A one coin difference would be a very unlikely outcome, effectively a tie. I'm not sure that the market would recognize a difference of less than 100 coins as significant.
<< <i>I am not the big gambling man that NYC is - and it might not be fair given I could have more info than he does
but - I have faith in this call - and so do others here that remain quiet....I won't call them out, they like to remain nameless and watch....
however, I will wager a cold beer at a cheap bar in NYC's Financial District (WFC) on a hot day in June......how's that? >>
Get that Concealed Firearms Permit updated first, Dan ;>
Everyone knows there are no cheap Bars in the WFC !
You are perfectly hedged holding those 08w kings for potential losses on those 06w's
all in good fun......
You are hilarious!
It's NYC, we make money here, enough to buy those $10 beers. You know, those Wall Street bonuses that everyone hates.
We're just a bunch of numistmatists, coin nerds, etc.
By the way, I vote you are the biggest Coin Nerd of All, FLBUFFALOHUNTER. HaHa!!!!
Good Ol' Coinboy.......I knew you were lurking out there......you buying UHR's tomorrow?
I know how to Ameritrade, long C at $3.06 and BAC at $5.60.
All for a swing trade, will be out soon with a nice scalp ;>
same here on the UHR price.....? who knows.
looks like the "mirror" page for the UHR has the add to cart button gone......so no loading cart early....damn....
So if say platinum ran up to $5000 an ounce and the mint cut off production at 2000 coins everything could change with the unc plats.
The proof plats in fractionals though sound like a done deal.
I know a lot of people purchase these platinum coins for the precious metal content and will sell for melt to trade in them as we have seen in the past. Just something for people to consider is all, I own the plats myself but just try to keep things realistic.
Also as far as I can tell no 2009 platinum bullion coins have yet been struck in any denomination and may not until later in the year which is very odd. Yes they ran out of blanks but still you would think they could muster up a few to start things off...
I deliberately purchased to hedge my position. No matter the outcome, I'm not concerned about losing on coins with mintages under 4,000.
Halfstrike: So if say platinum ran up to $5000 an ounce and the mint cut off production at 2000 coins everything could change with the unc plats. The proof plats in fractionals though sound like a done deal.
I don't consider the 2006w-2008w platinum uncirculateds to be part of the non-w bullion strike coins. Not because of the burnished finish or even the w mintmark, but because of the different reverse designs-- and not just a different reverse, but part of a 3 coin theme based on our tripartate system of government. They're as distinct from the regular bullion coins as the proofs are, at least the way I see it.
I still think there is a chance of something like this happening BTW, who would have guessed after 2006 that we had all these 2008 key coins assuming the mint holds to its promise?
Platinum prices over $2500 an ounce are hard for many collectors to swallow, if the South African mines shut down in the future nothing is impossible.
Yep, they are closer to the changing reverse proofs than they are to the regular "no mintmark" uncs.
That cannot be said of the "W" Unc AGEs, however. Those fall in nicely with the regular uncs, much like any other series that has more than one mintmark in the series. The 2008-W Unc AGEs may be a nice sleeper, even now.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>So if say platinum ran up to $5000 an ounce and the mint cut off production at 2000 coins everything could change with the unc plats. >>
Ha, if platinum got up to $5000 an ounce, I think the dynamics of everything would change. People would be taking their platinum to the bullion dealer so fast it would make your head spin. In that scenario, mintages would go out the window and it would take awhile to assess the surviving population.
<< <i>if the South African mines shut down in the future nothing is impossible. >>
You are closer than you know to the truth....
The run up in platinum early last year was due to a widely reported power shortage in South Africa, resulting in most platinum mines being shut down. Platinum is mined VERY deep underground (over a mile) and it gets very hot down there. The only way the miners can even survive is to have air conditioning pumped in from the surface. When this couldn't happen, because of the power shortage, the mines had no option but to shut down. Voila...Pt moves from $1400 to $2000+ within a month.
Very different times now. Heck, Crystler wants to GIVE AWAY 35% of itself to Fiat....in exchange for having the right to sell their cars in the US...conditioned upon the TARP giving Crystler another $3 Billion!
Bottom line....Platinum industrial demand is not going to come back for a while. Jewelery demand will be depressed during the ongoing recession. Safe Haven money will flow to Gold, not Platinum. Look for Gold to surpass Platinum very soon.
FloridaBill
I'll take your "Gentlemen's Agreement", upon the terms you offered to 7/8, if you sweeten the deal just a little....say, add a 1/10 to your side of the proposition...
Your 1/10 and 1/4, against my 1/4. After all, the odds are in your favor.
FloridaBill
Morgan mintages are not reliable indicators of rarity because of numerous melts. In his comprehensive 1993 work on silver dollars, Q. David Bowers estimated that fewer than 20,000 survivors remain of each date, and he estimated the 1893S to be about 30% scarcer than the 1894P.
>>If the numbers are so bad then why is everyone using them for the buffalo coins and plat proofs? I haven't heard anyone complain about those numbers and they seem to be accepted here, yet the unc plats are questioned?<<
I think the numbers for the buffalos and the plat proofs could well go down from here. But even if they don't, I believe the current numbers are low enough to make them keys. This is not the case for the 2008 unc. "W" plats.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
And those numbers will call into question why anyone would use the order report as an indicator for mintage.....
<< <i>
Bottom line....Platinum industrial demand is not going to come back for a while. Jewelery demand will be depressed during the ongoing recession. Safe Haven money will flow to Gold, not Platinum. Look for Gold to surpass Platinum very soon.
FloridaBill >>
Even though I'm a big plat fan, I agree with you here, FB. I just don't see anything driving plat prices significantly up for a while. Good time to complete the collections!
<< <i>All I have to say is the mintages are coming boys -
And those numbers will call into question why anyone would use the order report as an indicator for mintage..... >>
You have to admit that in most cases sales figures and actual mintage values will be within a small percentage of each other, and can therefore be a useful indicator.
<< <i>W silver eagle UNC sold out, celebration buffalo on backorder. W unc plats removed from mint website. >>
The 2008-W Silver eagle numbers slightly over 2006-W, however if the back out 2008 rev. of 07 numbers, the 08`s are the new kings?
<< <i>The 2008 Dollar Sets with Silver Eagles are still available which will increase the ASE mintage. >>
They would have to sell some 25,000 + Dollar sets to make any difference. Last number I saw on those dollar sets was 45,773.
<< <i>
<< <i>Half -
Sometimes, the big coin, with lots of intrinsic value, like the $100 PLATS, get melted because of the meteoric rise in metal prices.
Usually, many years later, you regret it.
>>
But melting does affect what the market considers to be a key coin. If enough 2006 were melted then the 2008 will have to drop that much more eventually.
A one coin difference may not be what you hope it is. >>
I sent in an a$$load of 2006 w to Kitco when platinum was going for $2200 an ounce. How doe s that figure into the royal lineage? in terms of raw numbers of available coins, the 2006 -w will always be the kings.
<< <i>All I have to say is the mintages are coming boys -
And those numbers will call into question why anyone would use the order report as an indicator for mintage..... >>
When? You have stated in the past that it would be mid January....that has come and gone.
Gone, but not forgotten.
Hey, anybody seen 7over8 lately? It's late January. I need to know how my Uncs are doin'.
I knew it would happen.