However, you seem to be very concerned that the 06w does not get eclipsed by the 08w's. Thought you were indifferent? Maybe some large holdings of 06w's gotcha worried?
No need to worry, those 06w's are good coins, even if eclipsed by the 08w's. Right? Sounds just like the same line you used on your post, but only reversed......hmmmm
What you consider a HUGE (in caps) "gulf" right now could be decreased substantially, as you cannot even prove that backorder points don't include some "padding" of orders......as we know regularly happened in previous years of 5-15% of totals.
So when you speak of the numbers, your "soft" 1257 quote on the sets could have been a have been 1100-1200 hard sets with a 50-150 set excess order. It is VERY (note the CAPS) possible sets could drop as much as 900 in number.
What I continue to say is that the US Mint's "Order Report" is not a good source for determining final mintage numbers.
EVERYONE should be questioning why the USM allowed the orders to continue to flow in, after backorder points were in place, for hundreds of orders - waaaaaay in excess of any inventory.
A possible reason is that there were several very large orders, on the plat unc's, 1/10's, 1/4's and 4 coin sets, where if they were returned, the USM would have been in a worse position than in early August........and potentially the reason why so many backup orders were in place. These orders, once not needed to swallow potential returns, were cancelled.
Cancellations have not been deducted from those sales numbers. That is what we have been told.
We have to wait for the mintage numbers - they will tell the story.
However, you seem to be very concerned that the 06w does not get eclipsed by the 08w's. Thought you were indifferent? Maybe some large holdings of 06w's gotcha worried?
No need to worry, those 06w's are good coins, even if eclipsed by the 08w's. Right? Sounds just like the same line you used on your post, but only reversed......hmmmm
1. I guess you've decided not to acknowledge your made-up "can't happen" quote.
2. I'm indifferent to which of the 2 ends up on top. I have a large number of 2006ws. I have an equally large number of 2008ws. So it doesn't make any difference to me which ends up on top. Can you claim the same? I don't think so.
3. You previously said there were "at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder." Now you say now say "It is VERY (note the CAPS) possible sets could drop as much as 900 in number." So it looks like you are backing down from your claim. The fact is, we don't know how many sets were taken when they went on backorder. We only know what the prior week's sales numbers for sets were and they stayed on sale for a couple of days after that. The sales figures, dated a few days later, popped by 900, but we don't have any way to know how many of the 900 could be backorders.
4. "We have to wait for the mintage numbers - they will tell the story." Really? I'm happy to wait; it seemed to me that you're the one pitching made up numbers instead of just waiting for the real ones.
1) No. You were very clear in your post about impossibilities. 2) Yes. I can claim the same. 3) No. Not backing down at all. 4) Yes. Happy to wait too. Seems like you have been doing alot of pitching away from the possibility of this issue being sub-06w.
Clearly, there are two "camps" on what may have happened with these 08w unc plat sales.
I think everyone is ignoring a very real THIRD possibility: that staggering numbers of '07 unc-w plats have been lost in a CATACLYSMIC EVENT! I have it from a reliable source that 82% of the '07 plats were on board the US Air jet that WENT DOWN IN THE HUDSON RIVER! Some of the coins have already been recovered, but show telltale signs of exposure to human excrement. PCGS is already preparing "Bird Strike" labels for them and collectors of shipwreck coins are positioning themselves for a rabid bidding war.
I think everyone is ignoring a very real THIRD possibility: that staggering numbers of '07 unc-w plats have been lost in a CATACLYSMIC EVENT! I have it from a reliable source that 82% of the '07 plats were on board the US Air jet that WENT DOWN IN THE HUDSON RIVER! Some of the coins have already been recovered, but show telltale signs of exposure to human excrement. PCGS is already preparing "Bird Strike" labels for them and collectors of shipwreck coins are positioning themselves for a rabid bidding war.
So tell me, who is the king NOW???
lol GritsMan, I don't know about that, but I have previously suggested that 2007s might prove to be the hardest of the 3 years... I expect there are hoards of 2006 and 2008s, but 2007s were considered "high" mintage, and I doubt anyone has a big stash of them. We know that some of the 2006s were sold as bullion during the platinum runup to 2300/oz; it stands to reason that more of the 2007s would have suffered the same fate. If demand for the uncirculated platinums ever materializes, the 2007s might surprise us.
And I think in terms of availability that the '04 half and one oz plat proofs may be the hardest to find REGARDLESS of mintage. I think that dispersion is very important, not just mintage numbers. All the talk of mintage reminds me of kids first getting their hands on a Redbook and seeing low mintage "bargain" 19th C. pieces.
I mean mintage is important but I can not see it as the only factor. Another coin IMO in this category is the unc. Jackie - I just have not seen hoards of them around in a few hands & I think availability with that coin as well as others is not directly dependent on mintage.
Another example is British coins of the 19th C. where the mintages are a bit mixed in that the reports are on the total number of coins minted and do not account for meltings, recalls, coins struck in that year with previous year(s) date.
I suggest how about if we not get overly excited about the numbers minted until we get "real" numbers?
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
NYC, if any collector base at all develops for these, they all will be in huge demand. I also think it's possible a lot of '07s got melted. But I tell you, the first eBayer to get a "Bird Strike" coin up for auction is going to CLEAN UP!
And 7J, people HAVE to get excited on speculation for these because no one has any money left to buy the High Relief!
There won't be a stampede on eBay for the "Bird Strike" labels. I pre-ordered all of them and won't be selling on eBay. I am keeping them all for the long run. Sorry!
I pre-ordered all of them and won't be selling on eBay. I am keeping them all for the long run. Sorry!
I hear ya, Ben. I ordered about half of 2008-Ws when they first came out, and I'd have been much, much, much happier if they'd never come back on sale.
But they did, and so I bought more. I wouldn't have bought more if they didn't look like they were going somewhere. They all look pretty good, even now.
I wish that people would "think vintage wine". Don't be in such a hurry. It's makin' me crazy.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
There won't be a stampede on eBay for the "Bird Strike" labels. I pre-ordered all of them and won't be selling on eBay. I am keeping them all for the long run. Sorry! >>
Better read the posts back in 06 - just who is not on top of their info now?
I've been in this game a long time. Plats from the beginning. If you have more than 35 years in the coin market, then I concede that you have more knowledge of it.
Fairy Tales? Come on now, shows you are getting a little bit rattled......
They will both be fine sets to own, even if the 06w is eclipsed by the 08w's.
Charles Crews ** CU Members that I have had Buy/sell deals with alohagary,dabigkahuna,goldman86,fivecents,endzone,clackamas,ericj96,Bochiman,Wingsrule,adriana,claychaser,holeinone1972,itsnotjustme,MJcoin,Kishul,jsego,TWQG,carlwolfort,jmski52,steelielee,grote15
<< <i> I don't know about that, but I have previously suggested that 2007s might prove to be the hardest of the 3 years... I expect there are hoards of 2006 and 2008s, but 2007s were considered "high" mintage, and I doubt anyone has a big stash of them. We know that some of the 2006s were sold as bullion during the platinum runup to 2300/oz; it stands to reason that more of the 2007s would have suffered the same fate. If demand for the uncirculated platinums ever materializes, the 2007s might surprise us. >>
I sold for scrap 15 of the 1 ounce and 15 of the 1/2 ounce 2007-W APE uncs.
I'm willing to wager 7over8 that 2008w uncirculated platinum mintages do not end up "kings."
My offer:
If any of the 2008w unc plat denominations end up with mintages lower than the same denomination 2006w unc plat, I'll give 7over8 a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
If none of the 2008w coins have mintages lower than 2006w, he gives me a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
The 2008w $25 won't be worth as much if I win this bet; placing the value in his favor to account for the fact the odds are against him.
Also, I'll say he wins if any denomination 2008w beats the corresponding 2006w coin.
<< <i>I'm willing to wager 7over8 that 2008w uncirculated platinum mintages do not end up "kings."
My offer:
If any of the 2008w unc plat denominations end up with mintages lower than the same denomination 2006w unc plat, I'll give 7over8 a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
If none of the 2008w coins have mintages lower than 2006w, he gives me a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
The 2008w $25 won't be worth as much if I win this bet; placing the value in his favor to account for the fact the odds are against him.
Also, I'll say he wins if any denomination 2008w beats the corresponding 2006w coin. >>
Not to take sides, but looking at the numbers, yours odds are a lot better so it is not a fair bet. Maybe make it 2 to 1 or 3 to 1?
Coin Collector, Chicken Owner, Licensed Tax Preparer & Insurance Broker/Agent. San Diego, CA
Not to take sides, but looking at the numbers, yours odds are a lot better so it is not a fair bet. Maybe make it 2 to 1 or 3 to 1?
I think the odds are more than fair.
After all, on Jan. 15 (tab 212), 7over8 wrote:
Well given that there are at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, there will be 9/10's of the reduction you claim "can't happen".
Subtracting out 900 set orders easily places all the coins in contention, and under my wager, I lose if any denomination beats 2006w.
Indeed, if there are 900 backorders to be subtracted out, you could probably argue that the odds of one 2008w denomination beating 2006w is at least even money, but the payout to me if I win, a 2008w $25 (second place coin), probably won't be worth as much as if 7over8 wins and those coins are the new kings.
<<If any of the 2008w unc plat denominations end up with mintages lower than the same denomination 2006w unc plat, I'll give 7over8 a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.>>
unfortunately you would have to rely on the mints time table to get accurate mintages. And from what I understand it can take years to get a proper reconciliation.
unfortunately you would have to rely on the mints time table to get accurate mintages. And from what I understand it can take years to get a proper reconciliation.
we can agree to use whatever the numbers are as of a certain date, say June 1. In the unlikely event the numbers subsequently change after that date, we can agree to reverse the outcome if necessary (return the $25 sent along with a second).
Indeed, if there are 900 backorders to be subtracted out, you could probably argue that the odds of one 2008w denomination beating 2006w is at least even money, but the payout to me if I win, a 2008w $25 (second place coin), probably won't be worth as much as if 7over8 wins and those coins are the new kings. >>
I think the 2008 w unc will have to go well under 2006 w unc levels to really be kings. Otherwise you have the same situation as the unc silver commemoratives with the Olympic coins. The wheelchair silver dollar barely commands more than the the nearest coins.
The way the numbers are now though the 2006 w unc are kings and by a decent amount. PS On your bet I think you were more than generous, you should have asked for a 2008 plat proof.
I think the 2008 w unc will have to go well under 2006 w unc levels to really be kings. Otherwise you have the same situation as the unc silver commemoratives with the Olympic coins. The wheelchair silver dollar barely commands more than the the nearest coins.
The way the numbers are now though the 2006 w unc are kings and by a decent amount. PS On your bet I think you were more than generous, you should have asked for a 2008 plat proof.
Well, I thought about asking for a 2006w unc. $25 -- so if I lost, I'd have to pay with a "king" and if he lost, it would cost him a "king" but I figured keeping it with a 2008w $25 unc plat makes it more fair; the odds are against him and the stakes should reflect that.
Comments
I am relaxed. I have been all along.
However, you seem to be very concerned that the 06w does not get eclipsed by the 08w's. Thought you were indifferent? Maybe some large holdings of 06w's gotcha worried?
No need to worry, those 06w's are good coins, even if eclipsed by the 08w's. Right? Sounds just like the same line you used on your post, but only reversed......hmmmm
What you consider a HUGE (in caps) "gulf" right now could be decreased substantially, as you cannot even prove that backorder points don't include some "padding" of orders......as we know regularly happened in previous years of 5-15% of totals.
So when you speak of the numbers, your "soft" 1257 quote on the sets could have been a have been 1100-1200 hard sets with a 50-150 set excess order. It is VERY (note the CAPS) possible sets could drop as much as 900 in number.
What I continue to say is that the US Mint's "Order Report" is not a good source for determining final mintage numbers.
EVERYONE should be questioning why the USM allowed the orders to continue to flow in, after backorder points were in place, for hundreds of orders - waaaaaay in excess of any inventory.
A possible reason is that there were several very large orders, on the plat unc's, 1/10's, 1/4's and 4 coin sets, where if they were returned, the USM would have been in a worse position than in early August........and potentially the reason why so many backup orders were in place. These orders, once not needed to swallow potential returns, were cancelled.
Cancellations have not been deducted from those sales numbers. That is what we have been told.
We have to wait for the mintage numbers - they will tell the story.
I am relaxed. I have been all along.
However, you seem to be very concerned that the 06w does not get eclipsed by the 08w's. Thought you were indifferent? Maybe some large holdings of 06w's gotcha worried?
No need to worry, those 06w's are good coins, even if eclipsed by the 08w's. Right? Sounds just like the same line you used on your post, but only reversed......hmmmm
1. I guess you've decided not to acknowledge your made-up "can't happen" quote.
2. I'm indifferent to which of the 2 ends up on top. I have a large number of 2006ws. I have an equally large number of 2008ws. So it doesn't make any difference to me which ends up on top. Can you claim the same? I don't think so.
3. You previously said there were "at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder." Now you say now say "It is VERY (note the CAPS) possible sets could drop as much as 900 in number." So it looks like you are backing down from your claim. The fact is, we don't know how many sets were taken when they went on backorder. We only know what the prior week's sales numbers for sets were and they stayed on sale for a couple of days after that. The sales figures, dated a few days later, popped by 900, but we don't have any way to know how many of the 900 could be backorders.
4. "We have to wait for the mintage numbers - they will tell the story." Really? I'm happy to wait; it seemed to me that you're the one pitching made up numbers instead of just waiting for the real ones.
1) No. You were very clear in your post about impossibilities.
2) Yes. I can claim the same.
3) No. Not backing down at all.
4) Yes. Happy to wait too. Seems like you have been doing alot of pitching away from the possibility of this issue being sub-06w.
Clearly, there are two "camps" on what may have happened with these 08w unc plat sales.
The Truth
shall set you free?
Both coin sets are nice.
1) No. You were very clear in your post about impossibilities.
So you think it's fine to make up quotes. good to know.
2) Yes. I can claim the same.
you can claim the same, but you'd be lying. you didn't even exist in the platinum world in 2006.
3) No. Not backing down at all.
again, your suggestion that over 900 sets were added to the count after the backorder is demonstrably incorrect, but don't let the facts stop you
4) Yes. Happy to wait too. Seems like you have been doing alot of pitching away from the possibility of this issue being sub-06w.
you have no choice but to wait. 2 months have passed, and we're still waiting for your fairy tales to come true.
Both coin sets are nice.
Agreed.
So tell me, who is the king NOW???
So tell me, who is the king NOW???
lol GritsMan, I don't know about that, but I have previously suggested that 2007s might prove to be the hardest of the 3 years... I expect there are hoards of 2006 and 2008s, but 2007s were considered "high" mintage, and I doubt anyone has a big stash of them. We know that some of the 2006s were sold as bullion during the platinum runup to 2300/oz; it stands to reason that more of the 2007s would have suffered the same fate. If demand for the uncirculated platinums ever materializes, the 2007s might surprise us.
I mean mintage is important but I can not see it as the only factor. Another coin IMO in this category is the unc. Jackie - I just have not seen hoards of them around in a few hands & I think availability with that coin as well as others is not directly dependent on mintage.
Another example is British coins of the 19th C. where the mintages are a bit mixed in that the reports are on the total number of coins minted and do not account for meltings, recalls, coins struck in that year with previous year(s) date.
I suggest how about if we not get overly excited about the numbers minted until we get "real" numbers?
Well, just Love coins, period.
And 7J, people HAVE to get excited on speculation for these because no one has any money left to buy the High Relief!
There won't be a stampede on eBay for the "Bird Strike" labels. I pre-ordered all of them and won't be selling on eBay. I am keeping them all for the long run. Sorry!
I hear ya, Ben. I ordered about half of 2008-Ws when they first came out, and I'd have been much, much, much happier if they'd never come back on sale.
But they did, and so I bought more. I wouldn't have bought more if they didn't look like they were going somewhere. They all look pretty good, even now.
I wish that people would "think vintage wine". Don't be in such a hurry. It's makin' me crazy.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Grits,
There won't be a stampede on eBay for the "Bird Strike" labels. I pre-ordered all of them and won't be selling on eBay. I am keeping them all for the long run. Sorry! >>
Rats! Foiled again!
Better read the posts back in 06 - just who is not on top of their info now?
I've been in this game a long time. Plats from the beginning. If you have more than 35 years in the coin market, then I concede that you have more knowledge of it.
Fairy Tales? Come on now, shows you are getting a little bit rattled......
They will both be fine sets to own, even if the 06w is eclipsed by the 08w's.
<< <i> I don't know about that, but I have previously suggested that 2007s might prove to be the hardest of the 3 years... I expect there are hoards of 2006 and 2008s, but 2007s were considered "high" mintage, and I doubt anyone has a big stash of them. We know that some of the 2006s were sold as bullion during the platinum runup to 2300/oz; it stands to reason that more of the 2007s would have suffered the same fate. If demand for the uncirculated platinums ever materializes, the 2007s might surprise us. >>
I sold for scrap 15 of the 1 ounce and 15 of the 1/2 ounce 2007-W APE uncs.
<< <i>Can anyone post any numbers Today???? >>
I would guess no numbers today due to the "holiday".
<< <i>Can anyone post any numbers Today???? >>
Yes, there were more than one million people in Washington DC for President Obama's inauguration! None of them bought any buffalos or plats.
What...It's Tuesday and we don't have any screwy "sales/alledged mintage" gold/plat numbers to scream about...what's up with that?
So then...you think I should wait a few days until I take a blowtorch to my Unc plats?!?
<< <i><<Mintage numbers to be released very soon, apparently within days>>
So then...you think I should wait a few days until I take a blowtorch to my Unc plats?!?
If you do not torch them soon they will not qualify for the coveted First Torched™ insert.......
My advice, ACT NOW !!!
My offer:
If any of the 2008w unc plat denominations end up with mintages lower than the same denomination 2006w unc plat, I'll give 7over8 a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
If none of the 2008w coins have mintages lower than 2006w, he gives me a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
The 2008w $25 won't be worth as much if I win this bet; placing the value in his favor to account for the fact the odds are against him.
Also, I'll say he wins if any denomination 2008w beats the corresponding 2006w coin.
<< <i>I'm willing to wager 7over8 that 2008w uncirculated platinum mintages do not end up "kings."
My offer:
If any of the 2008w unc plat denominations end up with mintages lower than the same denomination 2006w unc plat, I'll give 7over8 a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
If none of the 2008w coins have mintages lower than 2006w, he gives me a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.
The 2008w $25 won't be worth as much if I win this bet; placing the value in his favor to account for the fact the odds are against him.
Also, I'll say he wins if any denomination 2008w beats the corresponding 2006w coin. >>
Not to take sides, but looking at the numbers, yours odds are a lot better so it is not a fair bet.
San Diego, CA
I think the odds are more than fair.
After all, on Jan. 15 (tab 212), 7over8 wrote:
Well given that there are at least 900 orders for sets taken since backorder, there will be 9/10's of the reduction you claim "can't happen".
Subtracting out 900 set orders easily places all the coins in contention, and under my wager, I lose if any denomination beats 2006w.
Indeed, if there are 900 backorders to be subtracted out, you could probably argue that the odds of one 2008w denomination beating 2006w is at least even money, but the payout to me if I win, a 2008w $25 (second place coin), probably won't be worth as much as if 7over8 wins and those coins are the new kings.
<<If any of the 2008w unc plat denominations end up with mintages lower than the same denomination 2006w unc plat, I'll give 7over8 a 2008w $25 unc plat coin.>>
Would that coin be stamped "Made in China"?
i'm a man of my word.
we can agree to use whatever the numbers are as of a certain date, say June 1. In the unlikely event the numbers subsequently change after that date, we can agree to reverse the outcome if necessary (return the $25 sent along with a second).
I agree-- this is meant as a friendly wager. The gain or loss of a $25 shouldn't be significant to either of us.
<< <i>
Indeed, if there are 900 backorders to be subtracted out, you could probably argue that the odds of one 2008w denomination beating 2006w is at least even money, but the payout to me if I win, a 2008w $25 (second place coin), probably won't be worth as much as if 7over8 wins and those coins are the new kings. >>
I think the 2008 w unc will have to go well under 2006 w unc levels to really be kings. Otherwise you have the same situation as the unc silver commemoratives with the Olympic coins. The wheelchair silver dollar barely commands more than the the nearest coins.
The way the numbers are now though the 2006 w unc are kings and by a decent amount. PS On your bet I think you were more than generous, you should have asked for a 2008 plat proof.
The way the numbers are now though the 2006 w unc are kings and by a decent amount. PS On your bet I think you were more than generous, you should have asked for a 2008 plat proof.
Well, I thought about asking for a 2006w unc. $25 -- so if I lost, I'd have to pay with a "king" and if he lost, it would cost him a "king" but I figured keeping it with a 2008w $25 unc plat makes it more fair; the odds are against him and the stakes should reflect that.
1
.5
.25
.1
4 set
UNC W GOLD
7320
2061
3959
8219
2745
PROOF GOLD
16327
14792
15229
13580
13072
BUFF W
3124
3297
4117
12544
6303
BUFF PROOF
11660
4638
5972
11363
7931
PROOF PLATS
2432
1056
1293
3052
2598
PLAT W
1905
1257
1736
2465
2158
I've got 3 1/10th gold proofs on order, and now I'm wondering if I should cancel them.
I've got 3 1/10th gold proofs on order, and now I'm wondering if I should cancel them.
I don't see much potential on the gold proofs right now, just my opinion.
<< <i>Would it be correct to think from these figures that the fractional gold Eagle proofs from 2008 won't ever be worth much?
I've got 3 1/10th gold proofs on order, and now I'm wondering if I should cancel them.
I don't see much potential on the gold proofs right now, just my opinion. >>
I agree the proof gold is going no place unless the sales report is WAY off.......
The unc buff issues are shockingly low..........
The gift year.............
1. Proof plats
2. Fractinal proof buffs and all the unc w buffs not including the half
<< <i>The buff unc set came down 228! >>
You saw that too huh?
1 coin less than 06w and it is King.
Look at the price relationship between the 94P morgan at 110k and the 93s at 100k, pretty substantial diff in pricing, huh?
There can only be one King.